Consumer Confidence blows past 2007 highs, approaches 2000 levels

Before the month is over, let’s check in in on the latest data from the Consumer Confidence Index.

Here’s the Consumer Confidence data as of September:

Consumer Confidence

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 138.4, up three percent in a month and up fifteen percent from a year ago.

At 173.1, the Present Situation Index increased less than one percent between August and September, and is up eighteen percent from a year earlier. The Present Situation Index is currently up 757 percent from its December 2009 low point, and is now 25 percent higher than the pre-bust peak in July 2007.

The Expectations Index also rose in September, up five percent from August, and is up from a year earlier by twelve percent.

All three parts of the index are approaching the highs that they hit in 2000. It’s interesting to me that despite the apparent widespread confidence in both the present situation index and the expectations index we’re seeing a non-trivial drop-off in home sales this year, leading to a steady climb of inventory.

If everyone is so confident about the economy, why would home sales be falling off? Again, I’m brought back to near-record-low affordability levels. It doesn’t matter how confident people are if they simply can’t afford to buy a home in their market.

Click below for the interactive Consumer Confidence chart in Tableau.

You can use the sliders under the interactive chart below to zoom in on the data for a specific period.


0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

76 comments:

  1. 1
    Deerhawke says:

    I think affordability is a real problem.

    But that is not the only reason the market has gone from white hot to not so hot in the past 6 months.

    You had a whole group of people who wanted to sell from 2012 to early 2018. But why sell when the price keeps going up on a monthly basis? So they stay in Seattle when they would really rather be in Phoenix. They rent out the place they inherited from Aunt Maude rather than selling it. And this goes on until they are tired of holding when the animal spirits move them to sell at what they think looks like the top. But generally it is just past the top. A dearth of supply becomes a bit of a flood.

    So what do buyers do? Do they take advantage of the new supply? Well, some do. But a lot of people are afraid of buying too soon. They want to make sure the market has dropped enough to make it worth their while. They sit on the sidelines and adopt a policy of watchful waiting. They are asking the same question that the 2012-2018 would-be sellers were asking, but in reverse. Why should I buy if the market is falling? Maybe it will fall further. If I buy now, might I catch a falling knife?

    Just like with the stock market, sometimes an asset or asset class looks and feels overbought. So people sell, or hold-off on buying. They sit on the sidelines. Then when the time feels right, they might all decide to buy again.

    When we see a flock of birds, a school of fish or a herd of bison move as one, we are amazed at how it looks coordinated and orchestrated, but is actually the result of many individual birds, fish or bison making individual decisions in real time. Humans do it too, but we refuse to believe we are part of a flock, a school or a herd. But watch the market during a time like this and you will see that we social more than intellectual creatures. They call it the herd instinct for a reason.

  2. 2

    Interest Rates Went Up Again

    This time to the 2008 bubble pop levels. The highest since 2008 too, and rising fast too….more rate hikes on the butcher block at a theater near you.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-september-26-140715198.html

    This a quick blog, no long winded opinionated oratory, just the simple non-partisan fact; higher interest rates destroys Jumbo Loan approvals desperately needed in Seattle.

  3. 3

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    I think affordability is a real problem.

    I’m going to assume that this comment was in response to this end part of Tim’s post:

    If everyone is so confident about the economy, why would home sales be falling off? Again, I’m brought back to near-record-low affordability levels. It doesn’t matter how confident people are if they simply can’t afford to buy a home in their market.

    And I would tend to agree, particularly as to those listings that were overpriced.

    As an aside though, I find this data a bit suspect. Are consumers not at all concerned about the at least temporary effect of Trump’s trade wars? You would think nearly half the population would be very concerned, because that’s what their political party is telling them to think, and that would be countered by those relating to the other party. Are there so few people who actually think about these things that it doesn’t cause a blip in the data?

    And FWIW, I’m concerned but not overly concerned. I think there will be at a minimum short term consequences. The long term could go either way, although the downside potential harm (not chance of occurrence) is probably worse than the upside potential benefit.

  4. 4

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    You had a whole group of people who wanted to sell from 2012 to early 2018. But why sell when the price keeps going up on a monthly basis? So they stay in Seattle when they would really rather be in Phoenix. They rent out the place they inherited from Aunt Maude rather than selling it. And this goes on until they are tired of holding when the animal spirits move them to sell at what they think looks like the top. But generally it is just past the top. A dearth of supply becomes a bit of a flood.

    So what do buyers do? Do they take advantage of the new supply? Well, some do. But a lot of people are afraid of buying too soon. They want to make sure the market has dropped enough to make it worth their while. They sit on the sidelines and adopt a policy of watchful waiting. They are asking the same question that the 2012-2018 would-be sellers were asking, but in reverse. Why should I buy if the market is falling? Maybe it will fall further. If I buy now, might I catch a falling knife?

    As to this part of your post, I think you’re overstating things a bit, but at least your focusing on both sides. To look at a bit deeper, as of the end of August the active inventory in King County (SFR) was up by approximately 1,800 units year over year, while the new listings were only up about 1,400 units year to date, and many of those are likely duplicate listings for the same property. Closed sales were off about 1,100 houses year to date. And finally, there were about 1,100 cancelled or expired listings year to date, but again, some of those may have later resulted in a new listing. It really is a combination of factors, not just more buyers or more sellers, or too many sellers overpricing.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  5. 5

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4
    Thanks for the Macro Real Estate Trending Kary

    I will say this, when approached with just non-partisan neutral data….both our crystal balls have Stephen King “The Fog” in them…which side do we believe in this Kavanaugh Hearing? Does either side possess credible evidence?

    Or is it all shooting from the hip? Trade wars are a great example too…the Open Border Party all allege higher prices when an actual general price decrease occurs when you pay all the trade deficits and already possess the short stick. Food glut lower prices in America occurs when foreign countries retaliate with farm tariffs on America….bacon should go way down in price with lower export sales from the pig tariffs raised in Canada, i.e., etc, etc…

    That’s the trouble with globalism, it makes the world’s cost increases American too…when they aren’t.

    Ya have to look at it generally and at both sides. Non-partisan IOWs.

  6. 6
    David says:

    I don’t understand how the other surrounding cities are doing fine and JUST Seattle is experiencing a softening.

  7. 7
    Notme says:

    greedbag and recalcitrant
    sellers killed the golden goose
    no buyers anymore

    -a bubble haiku

  8. 8
    redmondjp says:

    By David @ 6:

    I don’t understand how the other surrounding cities are doing fine and JUST Seattle is experiencing a softening.

    Did you not read what S-Crow said just a few days ago in another comment thread? Prices in the far-flung exurbs are also falling.

  9. 9
    N says:

    @ David – Likely cause the economy is still good, people are still optimistic but they just can’t afford the prices in Seattle, so they are going out to places they can afford. Look at the rental rate increase in Tacoma versus Seattle over the last year…

  10. 10
    David says:

    Ever, ever so slightly down in the surrounding areas. And not by much in Seattle. And there is not much of a slowdown in sales volume in Seattle either. What is 000.2%? Answer: barely noticeable.

    Upon what basis would there be a bubble bursting?

    By redmondjp @ 8:

    By David @ 6:

    I don’t understand how the other surrounding cities are doing fine and JUST Seattle is experiencing a softening.

    Did you not read what S-Crow said just a few days ago in another comment thread? Prices in the far-flung exurbs are also falling.

  11. 11
    David says:

    Exports are expanding right now in an affront to the ‘tariffs’. The GDP just held at 4.2% – which is totally the reverse of the Trend under Obama. Trump’s deregulation policies are continuing.

    All I see is a flattening in price gains and job-growth slowing as a result of Seattle political policies. And people desperately trying to get from under the influence of Seattle politics on their lives.

  12. 12
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 10 – Surrounding areas traditionally lag behind Seattle about six months to a year. I noticed this in the last run-up and crash. I don’t have a great reason for this, other than speculating that Seattle tends to get ahead of itself in affordability first.

  13. 13

    It’s always hard to judge the number of sales before the end of the month, both due to the surge that occurs at the end of the month and the time given to report, but they do look light this month so far. (King County SFR).

    Vague impression based on NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

    One thing I noticed in a broader area I follow is roughly half the properties which were active had been on the market longer than three weeks and most had at least one price reduction. Oddly, more than half the ones going Pending Inspection recently had been on the market more than two months! Not surprisingly, all those had at least one price reduction. So seemingly buyers are being patient.

    Same disclaimer regarding slightly more specific data.

  14. 14
    ronp says:

    I see several homes sitting and not selling near me in NE Seattle, I think the sellers got a bit ahead of the market in terms of pricing and will have to accept less.

    Like this one — https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5752-NE-61st-St-98115/home/120663

    On the other hand this one sold instantly for a million — https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Seattle-WA-98105/pmf,pf_pt/48685503_zpid/99565_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/47.67058,-122.264301,47.667632,-122.269258_rect/17_zm/

  15. 15
    pfft says:

    By David @ 11:

    Exports are expanding right now in an affront to the ‘tariffs’. The GDP just held at 4.2% – which is totally the reverse of the Trend under Obama. Trump’s deregulation policies are continuing.

    That’s a joke. Obama had GDP that high or higher 4 or 5 times. YOY income growth was just negative. LOL as SWE would say.

    Trump’s tariffs costs Ford $1 billion.

  16. 16
    David says:

    RE: pfft @ 15 – Wrong again girlfriend. Sad.

  17. 17
    Greg says:

    By ronp @ 14:

    I see several homes sitting and not selling near me in NE Seattle, I think the sellers got a bit ahead of the market in terms of pricing and will have to accept less.

    Like this one — https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5752-NE-61st-St-98115/home/120663

    On the other hand this one sold instantly for a million — https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Seattle-WA-98105/pmf,pf_pt/48685503_zpid/99565_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/47.67058,-122.264301,47.667632,-122.269258_rect/17_zm/

    I think the listing may have been ahead of the market a few months back. But the market pulled back or stalled leaving those over priced homes just sitting.

    In my area . ..98033 process are moving down. There is no doubt . Supply is increasing an sellers are adjusting their prices to sell…

    To be clear this up not a handful of greedy or out of touch sellers this is a shift in demand/supply…

  18. 18

    By Greg @ 17:

    To be clear this up not a handful of greedy or out of touch sellers this is a shift in demand/supply…

    It’s both, for the reasons I have mentioned many times. But at least you’re not taking the position it’s just a change in supply (sellers rushing in) or a change in demand (buyers leaving).

    But as to the “greedy sellers” I’ve usually phrased that as agents/sellers, because I’ve seen some very good agents consistently overprice the past few months. That would tend to indicate that it was agent driven in those repeated situations. And that gets back to the issue of what do you do with a comp that was listed at $500k but sold for $600k when you’re pricing a new listing?

  19. 19

    Back On Topic

    Mortgage Interest rates now at 2007 Bubble Pop levels Highest in 11-12 years…

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/u-30-mortgage-rates-hit-seven-peak-freddie-213241593–sector.html

    Its almost 5% and climbing, and its isn’t the end of 2018 yet…

    This a sock in the Jumbo Mortgage borrowers’ stomach and a big hug for the few savers not in debt. If you’re on an old low interest rate you don’t want to sell now is my guess for the Seattle area sales’ downturn. It costs too much.

  20. 20

    Jammed Seattle Freeways Just a Minor Inconvenience?

    It won’t affect the stability of Seattle area job economy at all…wrong…

    https://www.studyfinds.org/25-workers-quit-job-long-commute-study-finds/

    Raw data is always a better gauge for economic plans in the future, not the anomalous peaks in prices during short term Equitable Adjustments Debt.

    Folks’ live spans are significantly shortening over this stress IMO….I lost half my hearing [an ear specialist confirmed it] from driving smaller 3000 lb automobiles with ear damaging tire/bearing squealing [electric cars do it too]…we all will…wait until its too late and you’re older [if you’re like me, you’ll wait until it gets bad to get an audiology on yourself]. Why do you think I recently bought a 4200+ Lb car with sound insulating steel?

  21. 21

    RE: pfft @ 15
    Ford Outsourced Everything When Boeing’s Old Dreamliner CEO Mullaney Destroyed that Company Too

    Look at the recent batches of Focus’ automatic transmissions [warrranty doesn’t cover]…its a [foreign engineered?] piece of junk now…..bad example Pffftt…FCA brought jobs back to Detroit…good example. American engineers are the best in the world.

    Mullaney quit both companies before he got the blame.

  22. 22

    RE: softwarengineer @ 20 – I’d be more worried about the concern of employers about traffic in the non-tech industry. If you have to move goods around via roads, Seattle is not a good place to be unless maybe you can move them at odd hours.

  23. 23

    SWE is Just a Lucky Devil?

    I warned Bubbleheads to close or not open FB accounts over lack of security and too much personal information shared over the internet…I wish I was wrong now. Billionaire Open Border Party Soros probably has access to your FB names and addressees now too. Its like telling the KGB where you live? LOL

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/facebook-reveals-50-million-accounts-affected-security-breach-165738742.html

  24. 24

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22
    Tell That to Microsoft

    The root cause of Seattle OVERPOPULATION.

  25. 25
    Notme says:

    spookily quiet
    bubble mongers silent now
    but damage all done

    -a bubble haiku

  26. 26
    Blurtman says:

    BREAKING! Troubling allegations leaked about Judge Kavanaugh and Mother Teresa. RE prices plunge in response! Martial law to be imposed!

  27. 27
    S-Crow says:

    Today is the last recording day of Sept.

    August vs Sept. 2018 MOM sales in Snohomish Co: Down approx. 19%. (Warranty Deed Transfers).

    Market is speaking. Loudly.

    Seeing more high to very high end property entering the market in Sno Co. Also, seeing substantial price drops of some of these.

  28. 28
    whatsmyname says:

    Hey Kary,

    I’m seeing some big developments in the exurbs where one or two builders will build some sample houses, and each put in their own sales center. Many lots and houses under construction have sold signs on them, but no realtor signs. Do those ever make it into the MLS stats?

  29. 29
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 28 – Where is this?

  30. 30

    By whatsmyname @ 28:

    Hey Kary,

    I’m seeing some big developments in the exurbs where one or two builders will build some sample houses, and each put in their own sales center. Many lots and houses under construction have sold signs on them, but no realtor signs. Do those ever make it into the MLS stats?

    As far as I know, yes, but I don’t think they’ll necessarily appear as actives. I’ve not tried to track them at any one site though. But when you look back, on most homes you can see their original listing, from when they were new, in the NWMLS system.

  31. 31
    Nicole says:

    RE: ronp @ 14
    I saw both those houses and the Windemere one is ok, but with only 2 main floor bedrooms and pretty much original condition while the other one had 5BR, 3 baths, was recently renovated. Also the weather was lovely at the time of open house and it has a nice tiered deck and private yard. They really weren’t comparable homes- bigger house move in ready, despite some things that needed fixing (deck, for ex seemed like it might need some work) and size.

  32. 32
    Matt P says:

    Looking forward to the Friday inventory update. Last week, redfin wasn’t sending me as many new listings as the last few signifying a leveling off, but the last few days has been bumpin hard. Possibly anecdotal of course.

  33. 33
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 29 – Maple Hills in Covington, Ten Trails in Black Diamond, Westridge in Edgewood. Maybe wherever you see Lennar, Richmond American, and a few other nationals? Ten Trails is supposed to ultimately build out to 4,800. A neighboring project is also supposed to go over 1,000.

  34. 34
    Eastsider says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 27 – Part of the MOM drop may be due to seasonality. The number of sales will likely continue to drop in the remaining months.

  35. 35

    RE: Blurtman @ 26 – LOL Blutman

    I just listened to a Democrat Senator from Missouri this morning issuing a similar warning to America. We’ve become a nation of conspiracy theories and brainless tribes….he felt the Kavanaugh Hearing was a good example of fear mongering and tribal nonsense gone way too far. I do too. He felt its a embarrassment to America and he accepted the fact we were gonna get a conservative judge….so what? Stop the pointless bickering over politics, life is too short.

  36. 36
    Justme says:

    It is time for the weekend update on for-sale inventory for KC/SFH. Four weeks have passed since labor day week. The King County SFH for-sale listings increased by 54 units from last week to 4891, a number not exceeded since 29.Sep 2014. As usual, inventory peaked on Friday evening.

    09.28.2018 20:00 4891 (up 54 from 4837 prev week)
    09.21.2018 17:00 4837 (up 2 from 4835 prev week)
    09.29.2014 12:00 4899 (prev time for-sale inventory >= today’s number)
    09.14.2018 18:00 4835 (up 235 from 4600 prev week)
    09.07.2018 19:00 4600 (up 230 from 4370 prev week)

    The usual seasonal decline in for-sale inventory has gone missing. Instead, after a 1-week near-flattening, the listing inventory has started up on an upward trajectory again. The crowd at the exits of the housing market keeps rising and has reached a new high. It is now exactly, to the date, 4-years since the listing count exceeded this weeks maximum.

    What is the cause of the rise in listing inventory? Multiple terms enter into the dynamic accounting of listing inventory, but there is some indication that even the marginal (read: most foolish) buyers are giving up and throwing in the proverbial towel. A related question is whether such an absence/abstinence of buyers, combined with reported price reductions, will cause marginal *owners* (including recent buyers of marginal financial soundness) to give up and try to cut their losses and get out of their obligations through short-sales, defaults, and foreclosures. I think YES, although it will likely take some months to develop fully. Perhaps just in time for spring selling season.

  37. 37
    David says:

    In South White Center area, I’ve just seen what was a crappy house inhabited by illegal aliens just 4 months ago sell in the mid-$400s. A 100 YEAR OLD HOUSE. Painted over vinyl siding. Did replace the kitchen. Don’t believe there was ever a building permit issued or certainly not posted on site. The yard had been dirt. Chickens in the backyard. Moss everywhere and just filthy.

    But wow. That does not look or act like a failing market to me.

  38. 38
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 37

    >>But wow. That does not look or act like a failing market to me.

    A failing buyer being failed also by the REIC that did not tell the buyer they should not buy what sounds like an overpriced piece of junk. An essential component of a properly functioning market is INFORMED (actually knowledgeable) buyers. That is one of the criteria that appraisers use to determine proper market value.

  39. 39
    Justme says:

    This is the definition of “market value” that Fannie Mae, and hence 99.9% of the rest of the industry, require an appraiser to use:

    Market value is the most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: (1) buyer and seller are typically motivated; (2) both parties are well informed or well advised, and each acting in what he considers his own best interest; (3) a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; (4) payment is made in terms of cash in U.S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and (5) the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.

    Source/reference:
    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/04/foreclosure-sales-and-reo-for-ubernerds.html

  40. 40
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 39 – Google Street View would give anyone a good sense of what was happening at this location I mentioned. This house was also paid for in cash. Fair market value is going up in this location. Hopefully it runs out some of the Section 8 owners as taxes increase.

  41. 41
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 36 – Very interesting to define marginal as “most foolish”. But does that not make your statement read that the most foolish buyers are the one giving up? Is your next statement not a question as to whether the most foolish owners are the ones putting their houses on the market? Are you sure this is what you meant to say?

    You do have a good point on the traditional inventory decline. This is a definite seasonal aberration. It may be an issue with the proportion of buyers who are committing to pre-construction that won’t close and be counted for months. Or it could be something else. When I look at the curves and relationships to immediate prior years in Tim’s NWMLS based monthly graphs, this year seems to best compare/fit with a less frenetic 2006. Maybe in a year or so, an extreme financial panic will provide a similar future. Or more likely, we’ll at some point see a much shorter and less extreme cyclical slowdown. What do you think?

  42. 42
    David says:

    I can only go ahead with Chicken-Little-Syndrome if Amazon’s HQ2 appears to become a full-blown abandonment of Seattle as defined by 35% or more of the employee base leaving.

  43. 43
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 40

    Streetview? What is the addresss?

  44. 44
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 37 – This is your weekly reminder that real estate changes course very slowly. Our last run-up took five years to unwind. Will this one? Who knows, but I do think it will be measured in years, not months.

    There will be plenty of knife-catchers on the way down who will do a good job of keeping prices nice and sticky.

  45. 45
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 43 – I’m not going to mock someone by showing their address. It is too bad they don’t allow pic uploads here though or I would post a pic.

  46. 46
    David says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 44 – A new crop of perma-bears is arising!

  47. 47

    By whatsmyname @ 41:

    RE: Justme @ 36 – Very interesting to define marginal as “most foolish”. But does that not make your statement read that the most foolish buyers are the one giving up? Is your next statement not a question as to whether the most foolish owners are the ones putting their houses on the market? Are you sure this is what you meant to say?

    I wouldn’t really worry about the terminology an anonymous poster uses on the Internet, or whether they think something is smart or not. If we were talking about which stocks to buy that would clearly be foolish, by any definition.

  48. 48

    By wreckingbull @ 44:

    RE: David @ 37 – This is your weekly reminder that real estate changes course very slowly. Our last run-up took five years to unwind. Will this one? Who knows, but I do think it will be measured in years, not months.

    That would really depend on the nature of the event which causes a significant downturn. Although it probably does depend on whether you’re looking at price or volume. Volume can change faster.

  49. 49

    England is jumping on the blame foreigners bandwagon, imposing a higher excise (stamp) tax on such purchasers. They also have additional tax burdens on buyers of second homes. Buyers pay the REET in England.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/29/foreign-buyers-targeted-stamp-duty-hiketheresa-may-announces/

  50. 50
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 46 – I bought a home in 2011 when it made financial sense. Today, I would not. If that makes me a perma-bear, so be it. By all means, nothing is stopping you from going all-in today on Seattle area real estate. Good luck and keep us posted!

  51. 51
    wreckingbull says:

    By David @ 45:

    RE: Justme @ 43 – I’m not going to mock someone by showing their address. It is too bad they don’t allow pic uploads here though or I would post a pic.

    Upload pic to a site such as imgur. Post link here.

    https://imgur.com/gallery/gLLZf0F

  52. 52

    RE: N @ 9

    If You Don’t Have a Mortgage

    You already received this information on your home in King County…Official Property Value Notice for 2019.

    My modular went up in price another 11% on top of the past couple years 40%…HORRIFYING. And the units aren’t listing open houses simultaneously all Summer [unsellable?]…..this 28 YO mobile home type structure went up 11%? I’m sure they sell less new right now compared to the used selling prices…its gotta be gold plated.

    Based on the past few years…your bubble head stick homes went up about 11% for 2019 as the prices cool with higher interest rates…we all have deck seats on the Titanic together now…King County will scream, kick and scratch for more Property Taxes no matter what? The King County open border party is gifted at making them the victim and stealing our Trump tax cut? California raised taxes after the Trump Tax Cuts too….they grabbed it all.

    Sooooo…prices are stalled and going down as property taxes surge….LOL…welcome to Microsoft City.

  53. 53

    RE: Justme @ 38
    Or Brainless Buyers Will Pay Any Price to Live In Microsoft City?

  54. 54
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 49:

    England is jumping on the blame foreigners bandwagon, imposing a higher excise (stamp) tax on such purchasers. They also have additional tax burdens on buyers of second homes. Buyers pay the REET in England.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/29/foreign-buyers-targeted-stamp-duty-hiketheresa-may-announces/

    It is one thing to impose an additional excise tax on foreign buyers that don’t reside in their properties if the theory is that absentee foreign buyers cause real estate prices to artificially increase in price, and that approach will (correctly or incorrectly) cool the market. From what I read of the article, it appears that additional tax is being imposed as a matter of “fairness”. The argument for “fairness”, especially for absentee foreign owners that purchase property in the Puget Sound area would fail, as real estate taxes fund a variety of activities and programs that non residential absentee foreign buyers don’t use or impact.

  55. 55

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 49
    How Much of American Farm Land is Owned By Saudi Arabia and Japan?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/saudi-arabia-buying-up-farmland-in-us-southwest.html

    Its not American farm Tariffs…its Saudi/Asian farm tariffs instead…LOL

    What a mess we’re in…

  56. 56

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 48
    Yes Kary

    There are no actual history to compare to under today’s fair trade and “no equitable adjustment welfare to banks” Trump economy. All past bets are off. Contradictions galore and opinions with no coat hook to store them. Its virgin territory. The actuals of interest rate hikes and King County property tax increases [delayed from the false trending of past actuals?] can not be reasonably explained while happening at the same time.

    We need to digest the new 4th qtr GDP and interest hike data coming up in early October….more clues there.

  57. 57

    Time to Invest Elsewhere Before its too Late?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/new-mexico-top-performing-state-economy-since-trump-took-office

    The money is shifting to the east electoral states. Its logical under Trump….time to rethink the paradigm?

  58. 58

    Washington State Open Border Party Law Maker Accused of Rape Now

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-says-washington-state-lawmaker-raped-her-2007-150839112.html

    The allegations like this have gone up 200% since the Kavanaugh Hearing fiasco. We’ll ignore the economy and focus on ways not to fix it anyway…???

    Makes Seattle Bubble finance planning even more anomalous and unpredictable? Its a mess out there lately….delays and mis-management?

  59. 59
  60. 60
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 52

    “My modular went up in price another 11% on top of the past couple years 40%”

    Is it a modular or manufactured home? Modular is built to local regular building code and considered to be a normal house, though built off-site.

    From what I have read, manufactured itself is not rising as much as stick-built housing but the underlying land is rising in value if the land is owned by the manufactured homeowner. Resulting in gains for the landowner/manufactured homeowner.

    The problem I have with most modular or manufactured housing is that it looks like stacked shoeboxes. There are tons of architectural articles written showcasing interesting modular but most seem to be vaporware and never really realistically available. Blu Homes is an exception but not nationally available and still look like a shoe box.

  61. 61
    sfrz says:

    RE: ess @ 54 – If this was only the US’s goal. The flood of dirty money into US real estate is staggering. Vancouver is cracking down, but it may be a little late in the game.
    “Our goal is simple, as you’ve heard: Get dirty money out of our housing market,” James said. “When the real estate market is vulnerable to illicit activity and unethical behavior, people, our communities and our economies suffer. This is something we have to tackle.” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-28/officials-promise-dirty-money-crackdown-vancouver-housing-market-grinds-halt

  62. 62
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 61 – Hard to take you seriously. Because you are TwoFrontDoorsCrazy.

  63. 63
    sfrz says:

    Chinese money is drying up.
    “Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. “It’s drying up,” he said. “I just don’t see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that’s where Chinese buyers were.”

    Most of his clients are looking for properties in the $1 million to $3 million range, but he said the slowdown in buying is not all about the yuan.

    “It’s not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It’s just getting tighter and tighter,” he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, “that’s dried up substantially,” he said. ” https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

  64. 64

    Random data in an email I just received. I get emails from Zillow on a house I sold some time ago in Green Lake. Today it said 363 houses were listed for sale in 98103 in the last 30 days and 43 sold. Not a seller’s market.

  65. 65
    David says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 64 – Are they Amazon employees moving/bailing out?

  66. 66
    pfft says:

    By sfrz @ 61:

    RE: ess @ 54 – If this was only the US’s goal. The flood of dirty money into US real estate is staggering. Vancouver is cracking down, but it may be a little late in the game.
    “Our goal is simple, as you’ve heard: Get dirty money out of our housing market,” James said. “When the real estate market is vulnerable to illicit activity and unethical behavior, people, our communities and our economies suffer. This is something we have to tackle.” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-28/officials-promise-dirty-money-crackdown-vancouver-housing-market-grinds-halt

    RE lobby is too strong to get dirty money out of housing.

  67. 67
    pfft says:

    By sfrz @ 63:

    Chinese money is drying up.
    “Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. “It’s drying up,” he said. “I just don’t see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that’s where Chinese buyers were.”

    Most of his clients are looking for properties in the $1 million to $3 million range, but he said the slowdown in buying is not all about the yuan.

    “It’s not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It’s just getting tighter and tighter,” he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, “that’s dried up substantially,” he said. ” https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

    Not good.

    “the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients.”

    Am I allowed to comment on this?

  68. 68
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 67 – I’ll save you the trouble.

    Chinese dirty money speculation good, because Orange Man bad.

    How did I do?

  69. 69
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 68 – China is not sending us their best money. And the Democrats are sneaking it in to make me look bad. We need to get back to the most important thing, our relationship with Russia.

  70. 70
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 68:

    RE: pfft @ 67 – I’ll save you the trouble.

    Chinese dirty money speculation good, because Orange Man bad.

    How did I do?

    clean chinese speculation money is good and Trump is still an idiot(his own people admit that).

  71. 71

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 64:

    Random data in an email I just received. I get emails from Zillow on a house I sold some time ago in Green Lake. Today it said 363 houses were listed for sale in 98103 in the last 30 days and 43 sold. Not a seller’s market.

    Why would you believe Zillow and why would you post information from a source as unreliable as Zillow? There are currently 150 active listings in 98103, 94 of which are SFR. 36 SFR (Single Family Residential) sold in the past 30 days(43 if you include condo), so just under a 3 month supply. There are currently 67 SFR properties (85 if you include condo) in some other status (pending, contingent) or cancelled, expired, etc. in the past 30 days. None of that seems to fit with what Zillow said, except the number sold, which is probably just happenstance.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  72. 72

    On the topic of other countries, Trump has apparently negotiated new deals with both Mexico and Canada. Not clear how they are better or worse than NAFTA, or at least I’ve not researched it enough to have an opinion on that. And they do need to get through that mess called Congress.

    My point in brining this up though is that people seem to view the future as being either fantastic or a disaster. The price of houses is going to tank or continue to skyrocket for many years. The economy is going to prosper due to Trump or we’re going to go into depression due to trade wars. I think a lot of this thinking is driven by the press and their desire to attract eyeballs. And it’s nothing new. If you go back several decades and read news magazine covers you’d assume that by now we’d be in an ice age and 99% of the population would have Herpes AND Aids, assuming we survived the nuclear explosions and following nuclear winter.

    Edit: I was looking for an example cover, and found this parody. https://pictures.abebooks.com/MADDYVAN/md/md30000124031.jpg

  73. 73

    RE: David @ 65

    Went through all of the recent cancelleds. People who listed for 5 to 60 days and cancelled in the last 30 days when they didn’t get a buyer. Then I started from the top price down on current Active listings (there were 150 and not the number in the Zillow email) and found a fair amount of flippers, investors and old people or people who inherited since 2005 from old people. Didn’t find any Amazon’s at all on the sell side bailing in that zip code.

    Quite a few dramatically overpriced ones suggesting their attempt to sell was half-hearted at best or the way they ran their numbers on a flip or new construction when they purchased was incorrect. Not enough margin to make the correction. Saw some of this in high end Eastside recently as well.

    I didn’t check all of them. About 40. After seeing none at all I quit as obviously not a trend.

  74. 74
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 36

    It is time to get back to the big picture, meaning how is the KC (King County) doing relative to previous years. Here it is:

    KC SFH Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/UB12mtq
    KC Condo Inventory 2017 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/YAyDDzj

    This is hourly inventory as sourced from Estately. It is not hourly new listings, hourly pendings, or anything else. But it paints a very interesting picture nonetheless. The contrast between 2017 and 2018 (so far) is very significant.

    As I mentioned in my weekend update, the KC/SFH 2018 inventory graph for the first time caught up with the 2014 inventory graph. Also significant is that the KC/Condo 2018 graph already blew past the 2014 graph in the week after Labor Day week. Here are the KC graphs of 2014 versus 2018-so-far:

    KC SFH Inventory 2014 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/73YZnC8
    KC Condo Inventory 2014 versus 2018 so far: https://imgur.com/a/TMsmRZl

  75. 75
    biliruben says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 57

    Please. Please. Invest in New Mexico. If you are interested, I have a house to sell you in Albuquerque. Guaranteed to double in value, because Trump loves NM. Some of his favorite foods are Mexican after all.

    I have no idea what stats this post-let is using, but it’s likely because NM was sitting near-last in the economic recovery for so long that they had the furthest room to move up.

  76. 76

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2

    Along the lines of affordability, there was an article last week about subprine sneaking back to deal with the payment to income ratios under a new name “non-prime”.

    https://www.attomdata.com/news/attom-insights/whitepapers/subprime-financing-sneaking-back/

    Pretty much what S-Crow has been reporting here about for the last several months from his birdseye view of closings.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.