NWMLS: Inventory up big from 2017, sales slip

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October market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices were basically flat from September, and inventory dropped a bit but was up dramatically from 2017. Sales continued to slip from last year as well. September’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at 68 percent, but October’s 86 percent blew that out of the water.

The NWMLS hasn’t published their press release yet so let’s just get right to the data.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

October 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,873 -6.5% +86.1%
Closed Sales 2,052 +11.9% -15.9%
SAAS (?) 1.29 -25.5% +24.8%
Pending Sales 2,295 +2.3% -16.8%
Months of Supply 2.37 -16.5% +121.3%
Median Price* $670,999 +0.4% +6.5%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell seven percent from September to October, and was up 86 percent from last year. Before this year, the highest year-over-year inventory gain was 61.3 percent way back in February 2008. The number of homes on the market was at its highest October level since 2011.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up five percent from a year ago, but began the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose 12 percent between September and October. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped three percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 16 percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were up two percent from September to October, and were down 17 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

For the last few months we’ve been charting new territory in year-over-year inventory growth.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes edged down from September to October.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

October 2018: $670,999
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t posted their story yet. I’ll probably update this post when they do.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

764 comments:

  1. 251
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 247 – I’m sure you will come around to my view after 2 weeks of ‘research’. When your retirement depends on interest income, inflation goes up => you are poorer. Ask any Venezuelan bond holder. LOL.

  2. 252
    Joe says:

    As I’ve been saying folks, this is a bad stock and RE market with lots of downside. Apple down 5% today, which means about $50 billion in stock value was wiped in one day with one single stock. This will be very unnerving to many and will obviously lead to more downside. Because stocks and RE are correlated, I suspect RE lost a percent today as well.

    Several billion has already been drained from Seattle wealth as a result of Amazon’s plummet.

    The money is reading the signs and selling. The other money is waiting for confirmation of the large losses, just like last time.

  3. 253
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: webinator @ 229 – I would be totally fine with cease fire, actually I prefer it. But us being on a Bubble blog and all, which means plenty of people bought into the bubble fear mongering and lost out on the gains, so it’s an emotional space. We can disagree and debate the fallacy of data and economics and general logic. But I’m not going to back down from some ridicule based on highly biased context.
    Perhaps You can be the one to bring us to some civil middle ground. And I’m glad to hear about your experience, I do feel for your stress level and gum health. And I hope that didn’t affect the family life. While I don’t know exactly what you did, I would hope that if you were buying a home for you and your family to live, you should feel at peace with the decision.
    In 2012 and early 2013, I had very little doubt about real estate tailwind, So I bought properties that I deemed something that would be interest or sought after (DT Bellevue luxury condo with view, a Bellevue lake front tear down that I was able to still negotiated down 200k from 1.2 m in 2012 and then rebuilt, top level west facing condo in Capital Hill) I went with a variety of holdings. There was butterflies but I genuinely didn’t think I could lose, but of course I was barely in my 30’s so I didn’t know much to be worried. I’ve lived in each of them while waiting for the custom home built.
    What has been your experiences and what are your expectations? I thought to unload some and see what other investment would be more interesting, something perhaps oversea for the currency play and growth. But I’m like u a corporate guy with 401k, so just trying to get somewhere in life.
    Cheers to the good vibe

  4. 254
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 251 – nah, I can reply you now, u r still wrong, especially after bringing up junk bond as an example. But you are merely keeping up with your perma bear stance, so in your view, US gov should default on the bond as well.

  5. 255
    JustSomeDude says:

    Yay! Meth houses are finally going down! So maybe non-meth houses will follow.

    For what it’s worth – for the first time in about a year and half in the Pierce County area I am monitoring a Bank-Owned Foreclosure that I would actually consider buying is for sale (instead of those foreclosure auctions I usually see). It’s a “Blow out sale! 100K below value!”. (Their words – not mine!)

    It’s got me considering. But then I think – if this one popped up – what might follow? I don’t want to miss out on even better “Blow out sales!” Maybe I’ll get pre-qualified in my price range again and be ready to jump at the sales that are likely on the way! Or maybe I’ll just wait another year. Still to be determined.

  6. 256
    Jake says:

    My buddy decided the market is tanking enough he finally wants to invest in a condo. I said choose the price you can afford, find the condo you want that has been sitting on the market a while, then give them an insultingly below asking offer and see if they bite. Be ready to walk away if you don’t get what you want. Sounds like a sound strategy tbh.

  7. 257
    Matt P says:

    By Joe @ 252:

    As I’ve been saying folks, this is a bad stock and RE market with lots of downside. Apple down 5% today, which means about $50 billion in stock value was wiped in one day with one single stock. This will be very unnerving to many and will obviously lead to more downside. Because stocks and RE are correlated, I suspect RE lost a percent today as well.

    Several billion has already been drained from Seattle wealth as a result of Amazon’s plummet.

    The money is reading the signs and selling. The other money is waiting for confirmation of the large losses, just like last time.

    The wealth wasn’t necessarily drained from Seattle if it was Seattle residents that were the ones selling the stocks to take their gains, but I doubt they were.

  8. 258
    Ali says:

    Well, I want to buy a house. First time buyer, make around $200k combined, but I’m waiting a year or two to see where the market is going. It seems crazy to buy a home now. Even if there wasn’t a decline trajectory like we might have now, I’d still wait for a reccission or something to buy.

  9. 259
    David says:

    By JustSomeDude @ 255:

    Yay! Meth houses are finally going down! So maybe non-meth houses will follow.

    For what it’s worth – for the first time in about a year and half in the Pierce County area I am monitoring a Bank-Owned Foreclosure that I would actually consider buying is for sale (instead of those foreclosure auctions I usually see). It’s a “Blow out sale! 100K below value!”. (Their words – not mine!)

    It’s got me considering. But then I think – if this one popped up – what might follow? I don’t want to miss out on even better “Blow out sales!” Maybe I’ll get pre-qualified in my price range again and be ready to jump at the sales that are likely on the way! Or maybe I’ll just wait another year. Still to be determined.

    The stock market is responding with the typical before and after Democrat swoon. Every time the Dems get close to ANY power the market dives. Last time it didn’t just dive, it snapped its neck on the rocks below as it foresaw Obama winning.

    So once the wealth effect reverses you may be right.

  10. 260
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: David @ 259 – stock market tank because of the economic crisis and bottomed out by the time Obama was inaugurated. Then during Obama’s term the market went on a bull run that almost 3x, due to QE and low interest rate. Don’t see as much correlation with the political party in power with the stock market, monetary policies and debt risk (public debt, student loan, health care..) do a lot more.

  11. 261
  12. 262
    Brian says:

    Stock market probably tanked today because republicans look to have less control of the senate than originally thought. Not so much of a split congress anymore, which is what the market was excited about.

  13. 263
    Anonymous user says:

    HQ2 and HQ3 news out.
    Wonder what the impact would be to local RE in the next 1-2 years.

    City council must be celebrating because empty apartments/houses means more room for homeless. Yay.

  14. 264

    By uwp @ 246:

    Just because Democrats lose a Senate seat in North Dakota, a state of 700 thousand people that Trump won by 35%, or Beto only came within 2% of winning freaking Texas doesn’t mean they have no message.

    I don’t think the results mean they have a message or not. That’s determined by whether or not they have a message. Maybe they’ve developed one since 2016, but I haven’t noticed it. The anti-Trump position of many people probably helped them much more than their non-existent message.

  15. 265

    By Eddiemaster @ 247:

    RE: Eastsider @ 243 – sigh.. just when I thought you might stop filling this comment section with false knowledge. If you are trading bond, yes you would lose money when yield goes up. But if you hold it until the maturation, you don’t actually lose money. Matt P was correct, and you are only half correct.

    I may not agree with you on much, but I agree with you on that. If you don’t sell you got the benefit of your bargain taken at the time. That you might have gotten a better deal at a later time and thus your current deal isn’t as good doesn’t really matter, unless you want to bail out of your deal early.

  16. 266
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 264 – Bond knowledge is fairly basic. what do u not agree with me on? I don’t mind getting corrected as long as the logic is sound and the data can back correlate. At least then I would know whether to respect your opinion enough to hire you as an agent.
    Unless u r referring to how I addressed the bears, I should have toned that down a bit I agree tho I figure it was fair game.

  17. 267
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 264 – You must be sleeping well holding Tesla bonds (or WaMu bonds years ago). Hey, Tesla bonds are paying great yields right now compared to the alternatives. Why don’t you invest your retirement money there since you will never lose money? (Advice for others – don’t do it. It’s bad for your financial wealth.)

    P.s. Btw, with bonds you make money if interest rate drops, and lose money if interest rate rises. Bonds are not ‘fixed’ in price for the duration. Only ignorant people believe they never ‘lose’ money on bonds.

  18. 268

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 266 – Other topics besides bonds are what we might disagree on. The comment was not related to bonds.

    RE: Eastsider @ 267 -Whether a particular bond is good or not is another matter entirely. We were just dealing with the issue of a change in interest rate.

    You only make or lose that money from interest rate changes if you sell prior to maturity. Note that if interest rates rise you’d likely only want to sell if you had to, where if interest rates fall you could choose to take the gain. But then if you wanted to stay invested in interest bearing assets you’d be getting less going forward, so it’s not just all cake.

  19. 269
    Erik says:

    RE: Ram’s_horn @ 261
    Both new hq2 locations already have more expensive real estate than Seattle. After all the speculation, this had nothing to do with affordability.

  20. 270
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 268 – Bond interest is closely related to bond rating (‘good or bad’). Tesla bonds were rated better a couple years ago and their yields were lower. Same for Venezuela bonds.

    If you had invested in a 5 year CD a couple years ago at 2% interest rate, you would have lost money. Today you can get a 3 year CD that returns 3% yield. If you sell the 5-year CD and purchase a 3-year CD today, even with the early withdrawal penalty, you will earn more interest income in the remaining term. Telling people to hold on to their CDs until maturity is dumb because they can cut their losses.

  21. 271
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Erik @ 269 – not to advocate for the bears, HQ2 and affordability can be separated to still have impact on local RE. If affordability is low, then people just become renters, and that allows them to be more fluid. In that case it makes sense that they be attracted to the Big Apple given that they will rent regardless. That said, I think that the splitting of HQ2 to me means that speculators would less likely flock out of where they have been.

  22. 272
    ess says:

    By Erik @ 269:

    RE: Ram’s_horn @ 261
    Both new hq2 locations already have more expensive real estate than Seattle. After all the speculation, this had nothing to do with affordability.

    And don’t forget state and city income taxes, and those great summers with low temperatures and no humidity.

    The Seattle Times in an article today indicates that both cities have slightly less expensive housing than Seattle. But that may not reflect price per square foot, as well as other expenses that tend to make housing more expensive back there such as out of sight property taxes and “carrying charges” on those condos and co-ops.

    And rents – especially in NYC tend to be higher than in the Seattle metropolitan area, In addition, a minor industry in the NYC area is that of adding walls to apartments to increase the number of bedrooms in shared apartments. Thus these tiny 900 sq foot two bedroom apartments are transformed into three bedroom apartments for the workers. Most can’t afford or don’t want cars, and the NYC subway system is on the verge of collapse due to mismanagement and delayed upkeep.

    I think Seattle has much less to worry about keeping Amazon in Seattle with these two choices, and things will only get better if some of the city council members are replaced with more rationale individuals.

  23. 273

    By Eastsider @ 270:

    RE: Bond interest is closely related to bond rating (‘good or bad’). Tesla bonds were rated better a couple years ago and their yields were lower. Same for Venezuela bonds.

    Quit stating obvious things that have nothing to do with a change in the interest rate while you’re holding a bond. The quality of the debtor is not the topic, and has nothing to do with a change in interest rate over time.

    If you had invested in a 5 year CD a couple years ago at 2% interest rate, you would have lost money.

    If you sold it, yes, you would take a significant discount. If you continue to hold it you will get exactly what you expected when you bought. Sure increased inflation might eat into that, assuming the increased interest rates are the result of increased inflation but that would have been true too if you were just holding cash or any other dollar denominated investment.

    Today you can get a 3 year CD that returns 3% yield. If you sell the 5-year CD and purchase a 3-year CD today, even with the early withdrawal penalty, you will earn more interest income in the remaining term. Telling people to hold on to their CDs until maturity is dumb because they can cut their losses.

    Actually, they would be taking their losses and then earning a higher rate on a reduced sum of money. So if they had a $100,000 bond earning 2% and sold, they wouldn’t be earning 3% on $100,000 going forward because they would no longer have $100,000 after selling. And the higher the interest rates went the less they’d have to invest again.

    I’m not saying that you could never have a situation where that wouldn’t make sense to sell, I’m just disputing your original point that you’ve lost money if interest rates rise. You’ve only lost the money if you sell the bond. Selling very well might make sense, but you’d have to have increased interest that more than made up for the loss in price. Tax considerations might also come into play too, because I think that sale would result in a capital loss, which you might be able to offset against other income.

  24. 274
    Deerhawke says:

    Two articles in the Seattle Times on the HQ2 and HQ3 decision.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/its-official-amazon-says-northern-virginia-new-york-will-get-headquarters-expansion/

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/will-amazons-hq2-sink-seattles-housing-market/

    There is a good run-down on the amount of real estate Amazon has committed to here. Basically from what I can see, Amazon is adding MORE space and head-count in Seattle than LI City and Crystal City. About 4 million sf in LIC and CC, but at least 5 million in Seattle and the East Side.

    In a nutshell, there are not 2 HQ2’s but 3. One is right here and it is going to be the biggest of the 3.

    And meanwhile, all the other tech companies are combining to create the equivalent of another HQ2 in the larger Seattle/Redmond/Kirkland/Bellevue area.

  25. 275

    RE: Deerhawke @ 274 – I really question whether Amazon will add that many employees total or locally. It may be that when they move into some new space here they will abandon other space. If they do need to add that many employees it makes me wonder how they are scaping by now! ;-)

  26. 276
    biliruben says:

    Only thing worse than investing in. Real Estate is investing in bonds, particularly in low rate, but rising enviroment. Talk about losing money slowly. And huge up front transaction costs relative to stocks.

    Unless, of course, you are a bond trader…

    Just like RE, house wins.

  27. 277
    Notme says:

    Dividing amazon
    will bezos conquer employees?
    infighting begins

    -an amazon bubble haiku

  28. 278
    Notme says:

    Whatshisname Eddiemaster?
    bubble-babble sounds the same
    back-correlate words

    -a fresh-start-bubble-monger bubble haiku

  29. 279
    Notme says:

    Bond salesmen, das REIC
    sound an awful lot alike
    you won’t lose money!

    -a don’t-buy-anything-at-the-peak bubble haiku

  30. 280

    Amazon HQ2 Location a Big “High Priced Real Estate Sanctuary City” Food Fight?

    And the Open Border City Winner is Trump Town New York, New York….right next to Trump Tower?

    New York Lyrics:

    “….Start spreadin’ the news, I’m leavin’ today
    I want to be a part of it
    New York, New York
    These vagabond shoes, are longing to stray
    Right through the very heart of it
    New York, New York
    I want to wake up, in a city that doesn’t sleep
    And find I’m king of the hill
    Top of the heap…”

    Amazon HQ1 preparing relocation papers for limited/few downtown tech positions from Seattle to HQ2 Trump Tower New York are being processed as I blog?…LOL….that would be the clown with the squirt bottle in the face?

  31. 281

    RE: softwarengineer @ 280
    The Transferred Techs from Seattle AMZ Will Lament

    At least we won’t be locked in our homes from breathing the the dangerous Seattle wild fire smoke toxins….wrong…news today, recent “California Fusion Bomb sized fires spreading mushroom cloud smoke” to New York New York too….the fun goes on and on?

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/11/12/california-wildfires-smoke-plumes-new-england/

    P.S. Wild Fires are caused by lightening or man strikes in dry forests and shrubs….since lightening hasn’t increased its mostly “man caused” [overpopulation]….definitely a California Forrest Service mismanagement root cause. Global Warming related? Th e “Death Valley California” area was dry a 100 years ago too. That’s a lame excuse too.

  32. 282

    RE: Matt P @ 257
    Yes Matt

    I hear the iPhone phenomena is like the VCR….dying out too…doesn’t surprise me at all.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iphone-slump-is-rumbling-through-tech-1542119582

    IMO, the $1100 price tag on the R was the last straw….let alone the data fees to get internet and such. I see Walmart has laptops on Black Friday for $149….

    How to fix your LCD touch screen maintenance problems….don’t buy it….LOL

    https://www.howtogeek.com/312115/how-to-fix-the-most-common-problems-with-lcd-monitors/

    Its all Chinese junk now.

  33. 283
    Eastsider says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 273:

    By Eastsider @ 270:

    Today you can get a 3 year CD that returns 3% yield. If you sell the 5-year CD and purchase a 3-year CD today, even with the early withdrawal penalty, you will earn more interest income in the remaining term. Telling people to hold on to their CDs until maturity is dumb because they can cut their losses.

    Actually, they would be taking their losses and then earning a higher rate on a reduced sum of money. So if they had a $100,000 bond earning 2% and sold, they wouldn’t be earning 3% on $100,000 going forward because they would no longer have $100,000 after selling. And the higher the interest rates went the less they’d have to invest again.

    You are wrong. Do I need to educate you on the difference between CDs and bonds?

  34. 284
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: Notme @ 278 – ahh u read my post! Still glad to hear that things don’t make sense to u. How’s stock shorting going for ya? No funds to do so still I see.
    Be sure to get out of the basement, it’s sunny out! Sun is free lol

  35. 285
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlecondo/2018/11/10/october-2018-seattle-condo-market-report/

    “Counter to our historically seasonal downturn, Seattle’s inventory of available condos for sale that are listed in the Northwest MLS rose 258.2% to 677 units. This does not include unlisted new construction properties so the actual inventory is a little bit higher.”

    EYE POPPING rise in condo inventory. A favorite among speculators.

  36. 286

    RE: Eastsider @ 283 – I missed the part where you changed it to getting rid of a CD rather than a bond after an interest rate rise.

    Quit changing the facts. The issue is what happens when you own a bond and the interest rate rises. Not what interest rate you get on a riskier bond. Not what happens when you cash in a CD early. And no other situations either. Just stick with the facts we are discussing. Someone owns a bond and the interest rates rise.

  37. 287

    By Market Psychologist @ 285:

    https://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlecondo/2018/11/10/october-2018-seattle-condo-market-report/

    “Counter to our historically seasonal downturn, Seattle’s inventory of available condos for sale that are listed in the Northwest MLS rose 258.2% to 677 units. This does not include unlisted new construction properties so the actual inventory is a little bit higher.”

    EYE POPPING rise in condo inventory. A favorite among speculators.

    When you’re dealing with small numbers you can easily get large percentage increases. Pointing out those percentages is something that often scammers do, such as say pointing out a huge percentage increase in profits of a company that made very little money the prior period. And, of course, members of the press do it too.

  38. 288
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 283 – As much as Kary likes to point out the fact that he doesn’t agree with me on many things (you see what I did there, Kary, apparently it is worth it to say that as a preface), he is right in the facts but just arguing in parallel to your logic. You mentioned in -post 270 that people who hold onto their CD is dumb because they can cut their losses, but that is just under the stipulation that you are always trading for higher bond price, again the emphasis being that you are trading whatever it is, bond or CD with penalty. That doesn’t change the fundamentals of a bond. Institutional (pension fund, retirement fund) bond holders don’t want to trade often because they can move markets (thus hurting themselves or parts of their portfolio), and chasing higher yields isn’t necessary their goal if the horizon is more on the much longer target than you and I are comfortable with. But that doesn’t mean they are hurting themselves, they still get the interest payments and their capital back assuming that the issuing body doesn’t default.
    In the case of junk bond, you can possibly gain the high interest rate if you can hedge your risk (like a currency hedge in Venezuela case), so upside is high, and downside is limited.

  39. 289
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 286 – If you invest in bonds in your 401k, you get regular statements on portfolio balance. You are free to ignore the statement when bond values drop. Investment (stock or bond) can lose money. Only ignorant people don’t believe their bonds (or stock) can lose value.

    eddiemaster @ 288 – Institutions (e.g. pension funds) do care about portfolio values. They need to pay out constantly on obligations. If bond values drop significantly, they will be underfunded. So yes investing in bonds can lose money.

  40. 290
    Eastsider says:

    Amazon’s move to Long Island is already facing outcry from locals. LOL.

    Ocasio-Cortez blasts tax breaks for Amazon, says HQ2 will displace the working class
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/416384-ocasio-cortez-blasts-tax-breaks-for-amazon-says-it-will-displace-working-class

    Ocasio-Cortez: Amazon HQ2 coming to NYC is ‘extremely concerning’
    https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2018/11/13/ocasio-cortez-concerned-about-amazon-coming-to-nyc.html
    U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn’t happy with Amazon.com Inc.’s pending move to her Queens neighborhood.
    According to the Democratic Socialist, she’s not alone.
    “We’ve been getting calls and outreach from Queens residents all day about this,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote via Twitter. “The community’s response? Outrage.”

  41. 291

    By Eastsider @ 289:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 286 – If you invest in bonds in your 401k, you get regular statements on portfolio balance. You are free to ignore the statement when bond values drop. Investment (stock or bond) can lose money. Only ignorant people don’t believe their bonds (or stock) can lose value..

    I’m not saying to ignore anything. I’m saying to understand what is happening. The lower value doesn’t mean that you’re not meeting your original goals. It’s not the same as a stock dropping in value. And conversely, if interest rates drop you don’t necessarily want to sell the bond to cash in on that gain, because at that point you won’t make the same return on a new instrument of the same type.

    But what this discussion is all about is this exchange:

    By Eastsider @ 243:

    By Matt P @ 233:

    You don’t lose money in bonds unless you sell them

    Not true. Bonds fall when inflation rises. So the interest you receive from bonds has less value when inflation moves higher. I.e. you lose money when inflation goes from 1% to 2-3%.

    MattP noted that you don’t lose money unless you sell. You falsely clamed that was wrong, while using the term inflation rather than interest rate. Not that it matters much, but as I pointed out interest rates can rise for reasons other than inflation.

  42. 292

    By Eastsider @ 290:

    U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn’t happy with Amazon.com Inc.’s pending move to her Queens neighborhood.
    According to the Democratic Socialist, she’s not alone.
    “We’ve been getting calls and outreach from Queens residents all day about this,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote via Twitter. “The community’s response? Outrage.”

    Great move. They traded a crazy politian at the city council level (Sawant) for one at the federal level. Strike that. They added a crazy politician at the federal level to one at the city council level (Sawant).

  43. 293
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 289 – Institution bond holder stagger bond purchase by varying maturation dates for flexibility ( to go after higher yields, which goes with what your reasoning is) as well as payout obligation.

  44. 294
    Eastsider says:

    RE: eddiemaster @ 292 – All true. But if bond values collapse, pension funds can become underfunded, which may require remedial actions (e.g. increase funding.)

  45. 295
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 293 – I agree, that is why these institutions don’t go for junk bond as a major holding lol
    I mean if you are making a case that US treasuries are fluctuating wildly enough to be hurting the institutions, I suppose that is a different topic of discussion, I would think that yield curve will flatten over time but the balancing act between balance sheet unwind and investor unease of equity market (thus piling money into bond) will probably make bond yield and curve relatively volatile going forward.

  46. 296

    By Eastsider @ 294:

    RE: eddiemaster @ 292 – All true. But if bond values collapse, pension funds can become underfunded, which may require remedial actions (e.g. increase funding.)

    Only if they need to pay out more than they expected. Otherwise their ladder strategy will protect them. It’s not like their pension obligations are likely to rise with an increase in interest rates.

  47. 297
    Arrows says:

    Does anyone know why some price history data shows up in Redfin or Zillow but some prices are blanked out? I am seeing lots of price drops but the original prices are blanked out. Of course I still have the emails that show the original price, otherwise I wouldn’t know which way the changes are going.

    Is it possible to get the prices history data elsewhere?

  48. 298
    whatsmyname says:

    Half size mother ships?
    HQ-2 not so HQ?
    What will that mean here?

    A sink in by spring haiku?

  49. 299
    Matt P says:

    By Arrows @ 297:

    Does anyone know why some price history data shows up in Redfin or Zillow but some prices are blanked out? I am seeing lots of price drops but the original prices are blanked out. Of course I still have the emails that show the original price, otherwise I wouldn’t know which way the changes are going.

    Is it possible to get the prices history data elsewhere?

    That annoys me too because Redfin has the best search filters, but you can check Zillow or realtor.com and they usually have a more complete history.

  50. 300
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 298 – I keep up with local RE blog in NY and the commenters review has been of course mixed. Without a doubt there is a surge in speculations, this being next door to Manhattan and all. But the public fund that will cost the residents over the next 15 years. So again the haves will profit at the expense of have nots.
    A two bedroom is $1270 a sf, so for 1 mil u get smaller than 800 sf. 1 bedroom/studio even higher per sf. Personally I love NYC, but my god those prices, and it’s only going up from there.

  51. 301
    redmondjp says:

    By Arrows @ 297:

    Does anyone know why some price history data shows up in Redfin or Zillow but some prices are blanked out? I am seeing lots of price drops but the original prices are blanked out. Of course I still have the emails that show the original price, otherwise I wouldn’t know which way the changes are going.

    Is it possible to get the prices history data elsewhere?

    Yes, Bingle “King County Parcel Viewer 2.0” and find the property you are interested in. Sales history listed back to 1990 or thereabouts. Other large counties have similar systems online.

  52. 302
    Blake says:

    Interesting to pop into the Bubble and see you all discussing the bond market!
    Indeed… much more important than the stock market and ominous developments lately…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/general-electric-caution-signs-are-flashing-in-credit-markets
    “The selloff in GE is not an isolated event,” … “More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun.” There are around $2.5 trillion of bonds rated in the lowest tier of the investment-grade universe, more than triple the level at the end of 2008. Some of those securities, including issues from GE and Ford Motor Co., trade like they are already rated junk.

  53. 303
    Blake says:

    Oh… and those Trump tax cuts last year… brilliant!
    “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    Way to go Trumpy! Fk’ing disaster!!
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/u-s-budget-gap-jumps-to-100-billion-at-start-of-fiscal-year
    “The U.S. recorded a $100.5 billion budget deficit in October, an increase of about 60 percent from a year earlier, as spending grew twice as fast as revenue.”
    U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates, CBO Says…
    … and then the recession came!

  54. 304

    RE: redmondjp @ 301

    He’s talking about change in list price. KCPV should only be showing historic sold prices. Not OLP and subsequent price changes.

    It does not appear to be something that “the mls” is blocking as they do appear accurately for some. While agents can’t talk about other agent’s listings I think I can post this one since I represented the buyer.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/17-21st-Pl-98033/home/461083

    The price changes and Original List Price are all showing accurately on that one. So the times they are missing appears to be a glitch in the 3rd Party software. This came up before and as agents can always see the full history, I checked it, and there did not seem to be a cause given some show and some don’t.

    Zillow also shows the price changes accurately for the above linked property.

    If there were some “new rule” indicating they couldn’t be shown then none would have accurate data. So it must be a glitch on the side of the site you are using.

  55. 305
    Bumble says:

    By Eastsider @ 290:

    Ocasio-Cortez blasts tax breaks for Amazon, says HQ2 will displace the working class
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/416384-ocasio-cortez-blasts-tax-breaks-for-amazon-says-it-will-displace-working-class

    That definitely happened here in Seattle. She is probably right.

  56. 306
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Bumble @ 305 – she is a socialist like Sawant, so no surprise there. Probably harder to push through any socialist agenda in NYC particularly when the state tax system makes it less regressive, although capital gain tax still triumphs for the rich.
    I don’t see as much issue with the displacement if there is some, perhaps worse is the deal striked to utilize billions of public subsidies, but not like these people being displaced are paying much of. The benefits for LIC having AMZN is tremendous going forward.

  57. 307
    Eastsider says:

    By Blake @ 303:

    “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    The employment numbers do not support the claim.

  58. 308

    By Blake @ 303:

    Oh… and those Trump tax cuts last year… brilliant!
    “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    Assuming either of those numbers is correct, it would have almost certainly been worse without the tax cuts. Companies are constantly trying to be more efficient. A tax cut is not going to change that.

    Your comments remind me of the press reports early on about companies shutting down plants after the tax cuts. I’d say “newsflash,” but it should be rather obvious that if a company is not making any money doing something a tax cut will not help. And if they completely terminate an existing activity, chances are they were not making any money.

  59. 309

    By Eastsider @ 307:

    By Blake @ 303:

    “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    The employment numbers do not support the claim.

    You can still have a particular company cutting employment while the overall numbers are up.

  60. 310
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 309 – Sure it is possible, in an alternate universe lol. This is pure anti-tax cut / TDS propaganda. The overall employment is way up. Here is a news report from left leaning liberal NYT –

    U.S. Added 250,000 Jobs in October; Unemployment at 3.7%
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/business/economy/jobs-report.html

    The last official snapshot of the economy before Americans vote on Tuesday offered another reminder of the labor market’s persistent strength. Hiring is up. Wages are up. The total number of workers and job searchers is up.

    “It’s really the strongest part of the broader economy at the moment,” Michelle Girard, chief United States economist at NatWest Markets, said of the labor market.

  61. 311

    RE: Eastsider @ 290
    Ortez is No Trumpster

    But she especially hates Pelosi….she was openly protesting the DNC with the global warming alarmists in front of Pelosi’s office…great unity in the Open Border Party [ask Bernie]? I agree with her on Amazon tax advantages as welfare to the rich.

    I tend to support some glacier shrinkage proof on global warming, but the coming lower temperatures this Winter make accepting it as proven science fuzzy logic.

  62. 312

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 308
    If Most Voters Like the Tax Cuts [They Do]

    I’d assume its political suicide for the Open Border Party to attack the majority voters’ heart….their pocketbooks. No wonder the Open Border Party calls the women for Trump [and lower taxes on their households] traitors…..if I was a general income lady, I’d vote for less taxes too….LOL

    The antithesis of the majority voter [electoral] Trump base wishes is that DEMON, Obamacare. Too many are paying way to much for ACA and expect the tax deduction now too [Trump cut it, along with $500+K mortgage interest deduction]….its mainly the “minority voter” top 10% of household incomes [about $100K+ on up]….the other 90% can’t afford the Silver Plans anyway, without employer help. We do have income disparity, so smoothing out health care cost tax deductions is fine with me [the transition from no deduction from deduction should be gradual, not all at once], based on household income. This is the Open Border Party “double income” rich elite voting base BTW. I haven’t seen the 2018 tax tables for a while, but assume the marriage bracket creep made losing any large tax deduction a larger “amount”. Ya see why its nice to be single ?

  63. 313

    By Eastsider @ 310:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 309 – Sure it is possible, in an alternate universe lol. This is pure anti-tax cut / TDS propaganda.

    Sure it’s anti-tax cut material, but what is with you lately? You seem to be taking on the most absurd positions this week.

    Here’s a story about Amazon cutting some jobs, so it’s not even one company cutting and the others more than making it up, it’s one company cutting jobs while they are simultaneously adding more jobs.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/13/17007236/amazon-job-cut-seattle-hq-global-operations

  64. 314
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 310 – I also read the initial claim of lost jobs post tax cuts as part of anti-Trump agenda. From the job report solely, Trump/tax cut supporter has the upper hand in the debate. It makes more sense to argue from the perspective of dollar amount saved from corporate tax cut and overse profit repatriation becoming either the dollar amount of overall payroll (sans top executives salary/bonus) increase or share buybacks.
    I think the corporate tax cut helped with the job reports, but not upper class tax cut or overseas profit repatriation, still I thought that the cuts were done a bit early, before the two year mark of Trump’s term. I’m not sure how what other tools he has before the election to make the economy looks better than it has been. Middle class don’t pay much federal tax to begin with so hard to impact them through cuts, and that budget deficit isn’t going to shrink itself.

  65. 315
    Eastsider says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 313:

    it’s one company cutting jobs while they are simultaneously adding more jobs.

    This is rich. Basically you are saying the claim is correct because Amazon cut jobs but without mentioning that Amazon added a lot more jobs after the tax cut went into effect. How convenient! Here is the fact – Amazon’s headcount rose 13% the first nine months of this year.

  66. 316

    RE: Erik @ 269
    Read Between the Lines Erik

    Its really HQ2 [effectively replacing HQ1 AMZ tech jobs in Seattle?] moved to NYC with the downtown NYC [Besos home BTW] the “likely” actual working place for AMZ management [ like the high paid techs]….the outside facilities are just “burger flipper” wage warehouse locations. Makes absolutely no sense to split the higher paid professional “limited number” tech jobs for AMZ management on opposite sides of America….IMO.

    AMZ makes their plans as transparent as mud…to fool us all?

  67. 317
    Joe says:

    Amazon can begin its informal hiring freeze in Seattle now that the new HQs locations have been announced. They have a certain limit for headcount additions each year, and that headcount will have to be allocated to the new HQ’s locations. Interestingly, given the stock price drops and recession expectations, the headcount limits may be declining as I write this. They may even have people drawing up plans for headcount reductions in Seattle as a behind the scenes contingency plan. When companies staff up new locations, they usually make plans to move whole functions to the new area. In Amazon’s case, the employees are aligned by business group, so common sense dictates that entire businesses will be moving out of town. My guess is entertainment and advertising related businesses will move to New York for starters. Some high-paying back office functions will move to Washington (i.e., some subset of legal, finance, marketing).

  68. 318

    By Eastsider @ 315:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 313:

    it’s one company cutting jobs while they are simultaneously adding more jobs.

    This is rich. Basically you are saying the claim is correct because Amazon cut jobs but without mentioning that Amazon added a lot more jobs after the tax cut went into effect. How convenient! Here is the fact – Amazon’s headcount rose 13% the first nine months of this year.

    You really have a problem understanding simple concepts, because I did mention that they added jobs! Specifically:

    it’s one company cutting jobs while they are simultaneously adding more jobs.

    Like I said, what is wrong with you this week? The thing about bonds was bad enough, and just indicates you don’t understand nuance or proper decision making, but this is completely nuts. This indicates you don’t understand English, or simply want to pick some nits.

  69. 319
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 312 – Most voters like to see more money in their paycheck, yes, but that Federal tax cut didn’t do a whole lot for middle class. It is more of a transfer of federal budget to the wealthy in the disguise of tax cut for all. I would much prefer a tax cut that’s a same dollar amount for everyone, rather than a percentage, but that won’t fly for the lobbyists representing the rich. So no tax cut is better for the budget deficit.
    We can also go back to this topic of your retirement highly depending on the budget deficit not increasing that rapidly in % of GDP or you risk entitlement funding cut.
    And seriously, who calls the democratic party the “Open Border Party”? Can you cite the source that claims that that was what Obama did?

  70. 320

    RE: eddiemaster @ 319

    You Have and the Electoral Majority Voter Base Rolling On the Ground in Laughter

    $3-4K less taxes on my fixed income with Trump tax cuts not important? LOL…maybe try a hypnotist on me to convince me I’m really wrong? Your rich elite pays more taxes because of tax table creep to high [double?] incomes….you have no voting base to strengthen your position, admit it. Then end up with no retirement anyway, because of high debt?

    Any other key reason to not vote Trump is just a Mother Goose Tale for the electoral base. We all mostly vote our own pocketbooks and nothing you can say can convince us we’re really wrong anyway.

  71. 321
    David says:

    RE: Bumble @ 305 – Taking advice from Oscario Cortez? Might as well walk into a random McDonalds and hand your investments over to the Assistant Manager.

  72. 322
    Blake says:

    By eddiemaster @ 319:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 312
    And seriously, who calls the democratic party the “Open Border Party”? Can you cite the source that claims that that was what Obama did?

    Eddie… u r new here and I can save you time. Software Engineer has continued to call Obama and the Dems (and even the Repugs!) the open border party for years even though I have pointed out many times that Obama deported more people than any President in history AND for the last few years there has been net emigration BACK to Mexico. Facts don’t matter…
    byw: SWE has also cited the TV show Ancient Aliens as a source!

  73. 323
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 318 – You need to get back to the original claim – “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    If you disagree with the claim, then we are in agreement.

  74. 324

    By eddiemaster @ 319:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 312 – Most voters like to see more money in their paycheck, yes, but that Federal tax cut didn’t do a whole lot for middle class.

    It really depends on their situation. Some benefited, some didn’t. Self-employed people generally benefitted due to the cuts to keep them competitive with corporations (or to prevent a rush of people incorporating for tax reasons).

  75. 325

    $48K Per Employee in NYC Tax Welfare to Besos AMZ HQ2 Move

    https://nypost.com/2018/11/13/the-amazon-deal-is-no-win-for-new-yorkers/

    HORRIFYING in my book.

  76. 326

    By Eastsider @ 323:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 318 – You need to get back to the original claim – “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    If you disagree with the claim, then we are in agreement.

    I didn’t even assume the comment was correct in my post 308, and in both 308 and 309 noted that you can basically have movement both directions. I still don’t know if those numbers are correct, but even if they are it really doesn’t matter. One is job cuts and the other is job increases attributed to a particular reason. Clearly total job increases for any reason far outpace the cuts mentioned.

  77. 327

    RE: Blake @ 322
    Clinton and Reagan Both Believe in Ancient Aliens

    So did all the Presidents, including Obama BTW. I’d also include MIT.

    But you believe in unlimited Quantitative Easing in America [welfare to banks]? LOL….now that’s really weird behavior in my book.

  78. 328

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 324
    Let’s Be Honest

    Most all Americans benefited from the tax cuts.

  79. 329

    RE: Blake @ 322
    How Come Your Open Border Party Doesn’t Talk About Immigration Lately?

    You hate that flashlight shined on your real intentions don’t you? You try to fool us all and pretend you’re really Trump-like…

  80. 330
    biliruben says:

    The majority of jobs (64%) are created by small businesses (<500 employees), not large businesses.

    The tax cut benefits were pretty uneven for small businesses due to caps to write-offs that impacted small businesses more. Big businesses broadly benefited to a much larger degree. And the data shows they've spent most of their ill-gotten gains on stock-buybacks and bonuses to the higher-ups. I would like to see the layoffs vs. hirings data for the big 1000, but I can easily believe it. Big companies don't really create that many jobs, and windfall profits when profits are already high, don't make them expand. Most already had plenty of cash to expand, but weren't doing it, because the demand isn't there. The demand isn't there because we continue to screw the middle class.

  81. 331
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 323:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 318 – You need to get back to the original claim – “Since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created”

    If you disagree with the claim, then we are in agreement.

    The source is a group called Just Capital which tracks publicly traded companies: https://justcapital.com/
    They focused (as noted) on the 1,000 largest publicly traded companies. They also noted: “About half of those net (job) losses came from companies in the restaurant and leisure industries, the analysis found.” That is worrisome because consumers are not doing great and 2/3rds of our economy is consumption.

    Funny that all the right-wingers on here are not up in arms about the numbers I posted concerning the deficit? The Repugs have been in control of the House, Senate and Presidency yet the deficit was $100,000,000,000 in October (!) and will be over $1 trillion next year! I thought that you guys were really really REALLY concerned about government debt? Gee… are you f*cking hypocrites? We’re spending over $500 billion per year on just interest payments now!

  82. 332

    Seattle Landlords Pay Close Attention to This Case

    https://immigrationreform.com/2018/11/14/motel-6-succumbs-to-open-borders-pressure-tactics/

    Our Washington State AG is your foe. You must allow hoards of illegal aliens in to destroy your rentals and if you report it to ICE, you go to jail?

  83. 333
    Blake says:

    By biliruben @ 330:

    The majority of jobs (64%) are created by small businesses (<500 employees), not large businesses.

    The tax cut benefits were pretty uneven for small businesses due to caps to write-offs that impacted small businesses more. Big businesses broadly benefited to a much larger degree. And the data shows they've spent of their ill-gotten gains on stock-buybacks and bonuses to the higher-ups. I would like to see the layoffs vs. hirings data for the big 1000, but I can easily believe it. Big companies don't really create that many jobs, and windfall profits when profits are already high, don't make them expand. Most already had plenty of cash to expand, but weren't doing it, because the demand isn't there. The demand isn't there because we continue to screw the middle class.

    Yeah, good point. It seems that the big corps keep getting more “efficient” mainly by outsourcing to smaller subcontractors… where wages are lagging. Most of the biggest Corps now just focus on the next Quarter and tweaking their return to shareholders. My father worked for one of the biggest firms and before he retired he was sickened by the firm hiring 30-something MBAs who could do financial engineering and create higher profits… in the short term.
    GE was the star that everyone looked up to then… look at GE now:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-02-01/how-ge-went-from-american-icon-to-astonishing-mess
    “Under Welch, GE’s net income swelled from $1.65 billion in 1981 to $12.7 billion in 2000, even as its workforce shrank from 404,000 to 313,000. But over time, less and less of that income came from technological innovations or manufacturing prowess or even the productivity gains Welch had wrung out early in his tenure. Instead it came from GE’s financial-services arm…. In the hands of GE’s financial executives and tax lawyers, earnings from this division had special powers.”

    Special Powers… LMFAO! It’s magic!!

  84. 334

    RE: Blake @ 331
    Without Obama’s Depleted and Useless Military to Fix

    We could have cut the deficits and had plenty of money left for the WALL.

  85. 335
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 324 – How about view the distribution by Per Capita gain from tax cut by income classes? I didn’t say no one in middle class gained, and that wasn’t my point to begin with with the retort. I have noticed that you seem to miss the major point and argue about a detail here and there.

  86. 336

    RE: David @ 321
    LOL David

    Open Border Party Pelosi has that Socialist bee in her hair now too….

  87. 337

    By Blake @ 331:

    Funny that all the right-wingers on here are not up in arms about the numbers I posted concerning the deficit?

    Not sure if you’re referring to me as a right winger, but my position is that neither party is good on the deficit. I implicitly mentioned that above when I said neither party is economically conservative.

  88. 338
    uwp says:

    Here is the original article where the employment effects of the tax-cut were mentioned:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.html

    It goes in depth on several difference measures (business investment, stock buybacks, employment, raises, the deficit). No real clear overall benefit, although it hasn’t even been a year yet. Also, Trump’s tariffs and trade war are probably having an opposite effect on the economy, so you will never be able to point to one single thing at a time, the US economy is a complicated thing.

    The fact remains that real (inflation adj) wage growth and total jobs added monthly were both better in 2015/2016 than 2017/2018.

  89. 339

    By Eddiemaster @ 335:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 324 – How about view the distribution by Per Capita gain from tax cut by income classes? I didn’t say no one in middle class gained, and that wasn’t my point to begin with with the retort. I have noticed that you seem to miss the major point and argue about a detail here and there.

    No one cares about what the tax consequences are for people in their income group. What they care about is their individual result, so that’s what I focused on.

    Bringing this back to real estate, the big gainers among the less than millionaire groups are likely people who don’t have mortgage debt given the higher standard deduction. And if they are self-employed, even better–they really did well.

  90. 340
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 337:

    Not sure if you’re referring to me as a right winger, but my position is that neither party is good on the deficit. I implicitly mentioned that above when I said neither party is economically conservative.

    Democratic administrations have done a pretty good job of shrinking GOP created deficits. There is almost 40 years of recent evidence if you cared to look.

  91. 341
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 339 – that view point does matter, and it matters a whole more than the POV of everyone getting something regardless of how much, the reason is still the budget deficit rise. Would you not care if the large portion of the deficit increase is due to the disproportionate benefits handed to the high income class?

  92. 342
    Matt P says:

    The comments section have devolved into a complete mess. Probably won’t be many updates now that the holidays are coming. Will be interesting to see what inventory does through the end of the year.

  93. 343

    Just did a spot check on Eastside & North Seattle in fairly prime areas just to get a read before I leave for Thanksgiving break on Saturday.

    Using Single Family, not condo, and calling SFH 3 bedrooms or more and 4,000 sf lot or more.

    Seattle Areas 700, 705 and 710. Includes most of the prime-North neighborhoods.

    Median Price
    Jan through June $976,000
    July 1 to date $900,000
    Last 30 days $875,000

    Median for 2nd half of 2017 = $862,000

    The Eastside I used Kirkland, Bellevue Redmond, Issaquah, Sammamish and threw in Medina, Clyde Hill and Mercer Island.

    Median Price
    Jan through June $1,120,000
    July 1 to date $1,075,000
    Last 30 days $1,040,000

    Median for 2nd Half of 2017 = $1,000,000

    So both riding just slightly higher than 2nd half 2017 at present.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are calculated in Real Time by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

    These are good numbers to have when we compare the year end stats.

    I would include Bothell as I do a fair amount of work there, but some of it moves with North Seattle and some of it moves with The Eastside so I just left it out for now.

    Just running these for myself, but thought someone might like to jot them down for future reference.

  94. 344
    Market Psychologist says:

    Bitcoin fell to $5,400 (approximately) today. Many speculate it’s price is a forerunner of the stock market. Things keep getting more interesting…

  95. 345
    Blake says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 337
    No Kary. I see you as a conservative, rather than “right-wing.” You still have an open mind… mostly ;-)

  96. 346
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 344 – who are saying that? BTC/USD has had no correlation whatsoever with any equity index ever since its inception.

  97. 347
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 346

    “Might the volatile prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies indicate shifts in investor sentiment ahead of moves in the stock market? Yes, say some investment professionals, including two chief investment officers (CIOs), as quoted by The Wall Street Journal. Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group, a firm that provides financial research to institutional investors, told the Journal, ‘We’ve begun to watch bitcoin more closely as a sign of speculative enthusiasm.’ Tom Forester, of Forester Capital Management concurs. ‘We do view bitcoin as a sentiment indicator,’ he remarked to the WSJ.”

    Read more: Why Bitcoin Is the New Stock Market Indicator | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/why-bitcoin-new-stock-market-indicator/#ixzz5Ws1HyvvR
    Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

  98. 348
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 347 – I’ve just read the WSJ article. That’s an old article just fresh off the cryto crash and equity correction in March. Their directions had since diverged with equity market reaching new highs and BTC continued downward pressure as crypto ETF continued to be rejected, not quite the correlation these traders were hoping for.

  99. 349
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Arrows @ 297

    I believe that the issue is Redfin is a member of the NWMLS whereas Zillow is not so Redfin has to follow NWMLS rules but Zillow does not so sometimes you can see details of price cuts or former listing prices on Zillow but not Redfin.

  100. 350
    pfft says:

    By David @ 259:

    By JustSomeDude @ 255:

    Yay! Meth houses are finally going down! So maybe non-meth houses will follow.

    For what it’s worth – for the first time in about a year and half in the Pierce County area I am monitoring a Bank-Owned Foreclosure that I would actually consider buying is for sale (instead of those foreclosure auctions I usually see). It’s a “Blow out sale! 100K below value!”. (Their words – not mine!)

    It’s got me considering. But then I think – if this one popped up – what might follow? I don’t want to miss out on even better “Blow out sales!” Maybe I’ll get pre-qualified in my price range again and be ready to jump at the sales that are likely on the way! Or maybe I’ll just wait another year. Still to be determined.

    The stock market is responding with the typical before and after Democrat swoon. Every time the Dems get close to ANY power the market dives. Last time it didn’t just dive, it snapped its neck on the rocks below as it foresaw Obama winning.

    So once the wealth effect reverses you may be right.

    David thinks we forgot that Bush, the CEO president, was not the president when stock market, economy and housing market collapsed.

    LOL.

    Didn’t Trump say I alone can fix it? He can’t handle a Democratic House? He can’t even handle a little rain.

  101. 351
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 292:

    By Eastsider @ 290:

    U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn’t happy with Amazon.com Inc.’s pending move to her Queens neighborhood.
    According to the Democratic Socialist, she’s not alone.
    “We’ve been getting calls and outreach from Queens residents all day about this,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote via Twitter. “The community’s response? Outrage.”

    Great move. They traded a crazy politian at the city council level (Sawant) for one at the federal level. Strike that. They added a crazy politician at the federal level to one at the city council level (Sawant).

    Nothing crazy except the gobs of money NY foolishly threw at Amazon.

  102. 352
    pfft says:

    By David @ 321:

    RE: Bumble @ 305 – Taking advice from Oscario Cortez? Might as well walk into a random McDonalds and hand your investments over to the Assistant Manager.

    Still smarter than Trump.

    I bet she doesn’t cry when it rains.

  103. 353
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 334:

    RE: Blake @ 331
    Without Obama’s Depleted and Useless Military to Fix

    We could have cut the deficits and had plenty of money left for the WALL.

    I thought Mexico was going to pay for it?

    Walls only work for very short distances. Do your research. Walls only work for about less than 100 miles. They just went around or through the gates of the Great Wall of China.

  104. 354
    pfft says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 346:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 344 – who are saying that? BTC/USD has had no correlation whatsoever with any equity index ever since its inception.

    That doesn’t mean anything. Everything was correlated in 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised if bitcoin tanked with the market.

  105. 355
    pfft says:

    The Trumps tariffs are finally hitting the housing market no?

    Trump as also created 20,000 less jobs per month than Obama did on his way out.

    Shouldn’t have elected a grifter. Everyone in NY knew he was a grifter.

  106. 356
    ess says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/watchdog-says-hq2-incentives-might-be-more-than-double-amazo

    The outcry from NYC and state can have benefits for Seattle, and thus the housing market. If this just the beginning of both protests and political backlash, Amazon may realize that the local criticism it has received from its impact in the Seattle area is mild in comparison, and may not be so hasty to transfer its operations into an area that it will be hated by activists, and used as a political football by politicians.

  107. 357
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: pfft @ 354 – there were more updated responses since that post. The point was that the two don’t have much correlation and were heading in opposite direction after one crashed and the other corrected early this year.

  108. 358

    RE: Matt P @ 342
    Yes Matt

    I hear Trump is now mad at everyone on MSNBC lately….LOL….I wish MSNBC would follow their own advice against Trump and lighten up ;-)

    Pressure on lowering real estate prices is bad for owners I agree, but worse on potential normal income buyers/renters [there’s FAR more of these voters]….a mess sums it up well. But its reality and if we go into denial it will all eventually implode badly rather than gradually. It is what it is. Let’s roll up our sleeves and tackle this dragon together, we can’t be the asylum dump for 7 billion refugees, nor can we give up on American compassion either; we just don’t possess resources for much compassion anymore, even to legal American citizens…

    A little off tangent, but have you heard the new theory on west coast fire smoke, ISIS is starting the fires:

    https://pjmedia.com/homeland-security/isis-group-claims-california-wildfires-are-retribution-vows-you-will-see-more-fires/

  109. 359

    By randomseattledummie @ 349:

    RE: Arrows @ 297

    I believe that the issue is Redfin is a member of the NWMLS whereas Zillow is not so Redfin has to follow NWMLS rules but Zillow does not so sometimes you can see details of price cuts or former listing prices on Zillow but not Redfin.

    I don’t think there are any NWMLS rules that cover that, or at least I’m not aware of any, but Redfin is a member of multiple MLS entities, so they might have to design their system to comply with all such rules consistently everywhere.

    It’s sort of the opposite of how Zillow offers Coming Soon to NWMLS members even though it is against NWMLS rules (and they know it).

  110. 360

    RE: pfft @ 355
    Its Just Like Dire Straits “Money for Nothing”

    Only you quote statistics from nothing too…..Trump is adding jobs in 100,000 groves, the help wanted signs in Seattle prove that, unless there’s been a stealth exit out of Seattle suddenly creating the jobs needs…

    “Got to move those color TVVVVVVVVVVVVVVs…”

  111. 361

    By pfft @ 355:

    The Trumps tariffs are finally hitting the housing market no?.

    Amazing how you think higher prices in the form of a tariff affects decisions, but you don’t think that a significantly higher minimum wage affects decisions. Pick and choose what to believe much? Or do you just believe the leaders of your tribe?

  112. 362

    By Eddiemaster @ 357:

    RE: pfft @ 354 – there were more updated responses since that post. The point was that the two don’t have much correlation and were heading in opposite direction after one crashed and the other corrected early this year.

    The point should be one (stocks) have intrinsic value, and the other’s value (bitcoin) is completely fictional.

    I do though love the articles about why the price of Bitcoin is moving, or where it is headed. It makes you realize how pointless most the press coverage of stocks is.

  113. 363
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 362 – I don’t comment about validity of valuations of each crypto currency. But I like the idea of block chain backed currency system, so I don’t want to say crypto is fictional. The valuation rise and fall is not unlike Tulip mania and controlled in large part by the whales, that part is why I want to address the original claim that one can use BTC/USD as an indicator to future stock performance.

  114. 364
    Joe says:

    The RE prices in Seattle and East Side are going to drop a lot more. I can rent a $1M house for $3000/Mo. I know this as a fact because I am doing it, and I’ve seem several other comparable rentals with similar rents. If I were to buy this property for $1M, my interest payment at 5.2% would be $52,000 per year. Add in $12,000 real estate tax plus $3,000 insurance and maintenance, and that’s $67,000 per year or $5,600 per month, without any principal pay down.

    For the exact same property, I can pay $3,000 monthly rent or $5,600 per month for ownership. Gee, I wonder which is best.

    Just think what happens when the interest rates moves to 6% next year. The rent will then be $3100 per month and the ownership cost will be $6,250 per month.

  115. 365
    N says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/upshot/housing-market-slumping-despite-booming-economy.html

    When you look closely at the data, it appears this paradox of a strong economy and a weak housing market is, at its core, an illustration of a fundamental rule in economics: If something can’t go on forever, it won’t.

    Nationally, personal income per capita has risen 25 percent since the end of 2011, while the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index is up 48 percent (neither figure is adjusted for inflation).

    The gap is even larger in the big coastal cities with high wages and booming job markets, but where legal and other barriers make it hard for builders to add to the supply of homes. In the San Francisco metro area, per capita personal income rose 40 percent from 2011 to 2017, while home prices rose 96 percent. Similar patterns are evident in Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, New York and Washington.

    ates bottomed out in late 2012 at 3.31 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. They have been moving upward in fits and starts since, including a full percentage point in the last year alone to nearly 5 percent — still low by historical standards, but high compared with the ultralow levels that had enabled these huge price gains.

    “Buyers can only stomach so many price increases until it gets unsustainable,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at the online brokerage Redfin. “Prices reached a breaking point where buyers were fed up and started to consider other options,” she said, including renting and moving away from the expensive coastal markets where prices are most out of whack with incomes.

    There is precedent for this, and it isn’t a happy one. In the last housing boom, new home sales peaked in July 2005, and home prices didn’t start declining until May 2006. It didn’t start to hurt the overall economy until December 2007, when the damage had spread through an overleveraged global financial system.

    But that doesn’t mean this episode has to end in tears. Home prices are not nearly as out of line with incomes as they were then; speculative activity hasn’t been nearly as frothy; and consumer debt levels are considerably more measured.

    A strong (nonhousing) economy makes it more likely that this housing slump will end without a steep 2008-style downturn. So does the basic reality that young adults are forming families and need a place to house them.

    But in the meantime, it could be a soft few months or even years of standoffs between buyers and sellers, with the big question of which comes first: sellers who settle for less after recognizing that the price they thought they would get is beyond the reach of buyers, or incomes that catch up with a housing market that got a little ahead of itself.

  116. 366
    David says:

    By pfft @ 355:

    The Trumps tariffs are finally hitting the housing market no?

    Trump as also created 20,000 less jobs per month than Obama did on his way out.

    Shouldn’t have elected a grifter. Everyone in NY knew he was a grifter.

    Any economic improvement on Obama’s way out was a reaction to the Republicans taking over. A recession was what Obama actually gave us on his way out.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/10/new_york_times_finally_admits_how_obama_screwed_up_the_economy_in_2016.html

  117. 367
    uwp says:

    By N @ 365:

    Nationally, personal income per capita has risen 25 percent since the end of 2011, while the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index is up 48 percent (neither figure is adjusted for inflation).

    That’s cherry-picking dates.
    I could tell you that from March 2006 to now Case Shiller HPI is up only 11% while Personal Income per Capita is up 43% but does that matter?

    Look at the bigger picture. From 2002-2018 (boom-bust-boom) both CS-HPI and Income per Capita are up around 75%:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=m4JM

  118. 368
    David White says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 344:

    Bitcoin fell to $5,400 (approximately) today. Many speculate it’s price is a forerunner of the stock market. Things keep getting more interesting…

    This is like equating causation at the craps tables in the Bellagio to the housing market. I once doubled my money in BTC by playing it for fun. I made $450. I sold and plunked it all down in my ROTH in 2 or 3 BRK.B shares.

  119. 369
    David says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 344:

    Bitcoin fell to $5,400 (approximately) today. Many speculate it’s price is a forerunner of the stock market. Things keep getting more interesting…

    This is like equating causation at the craps tables in the Bellagio to the housing market. I once doubled my money in BTC by playing it for fun. I made $450. I sold and plunked it all down in my ROTH in 2 or 3 BRK.B shares.

  120. 370
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: David @ 368 – The markets have been turned into casinos, FYI

  121. 371
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Joe @ 364 – But, Joe, my realtor said I need to lock-in these low rates while I can. Also told me I needed to get in last year before I was priced out forever. Maybe next year I’ll hear that I should buy the dip! Wonder what the sellers will hear? Hmmm….

  122. 372
    uwp says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 370:

    RE: Joe @ 364 – But, Joe, my realtor said I need to lock-in these low rates while I can. Also told me I needed to get in last year before I was priced out forever. Maybe next year I’ll hear that I should buy the dip! Wonder what the sellers will hear? Hmmm….

    Well, if you bought a median home last year you are probably still in the positive as Ardell’s quick stats show. And you would have an interest rate under 4%, saving you several hundred dollars a month vs current rates. Plus, you would have paid down close to $10k in principal and be one+ year closer to owning your home free-and-clear. You would also be in line for at least a thousand dollars in tax savings vs the standard deduction (easily more depending on your tax situation). You wouldn’t be worried about what your landlord has planned for the coming year (maybe they are one of those “sellers rushing for the exits).

    It’s not all bad…

  123. 373
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 367

    So many ways to cook the statistics to make Seattle look affordable.

    1. Start with AVERAGE income INDEX per capita countrywide. Pretend that the *percentage* *increase* is relevant to the the typical homebuyer in Seattle. In reality, the median income of renters in Seattle is what matters. That income is much lower in absolute terms, and increased much less, because most of the income gains went to the top 1-10%, and those guys largely are homeowners already. Renters are younger and generally have less income than owners/sellers.

    2. Then look at the NATIONAL Case-Shiller House Price Index. This index rose much less than the Seattle index, of course. Whoop-de-do.

    3. Come to the utterly false conclusion that Seattle prices are quite reasonable, and everyone should BUY! NOW!

    Bubble-mongers are dishonest, that is the only certainty.

  124. 374
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 372:

    So many ways to cook the statistics to make Seattle look affordable.

    I was responding to a post that used those exact same stats and started from the bottom of the housing crash to make things look bad.

    But whatever.

  125. 375
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: uwp @ 373 – housing number on Canada showing increasing sign of soft landing with just modest adjustment in prices after facing higher rate and tougher regulations, according to Bloomberg just now — a Goldilocks scenario.

    It is possible, maybe not probable for Seattle area as well, there are no sure things, only levels of uncertainty. One might also argue that Vancouver/Toronto have seen much more Chinese capital injection (because it’s easier to gain citizenship there) than around here.

  126. 376
    pfft says:

    California Existing Homes in October: Sales Down 7.9% YoY, Inventory Up 28%
    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/11/california-existing-homes-in-october.html

  127. 377
    pfft says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 357:

    RE: pfft @ 354 – there were more updated responses since that post. The point was that the two don’t have much correlation and were heading in opposite direction after one crashed and the other corrected early this year.

    My point is that historically there wasn’t much correlation but things chance. Commodities and stocks had low correlations until 2008. When people need to sell they sell everything.

    I remember reading an account of 87 where they just started with the letter A and sold everything they could.

    Bitcoin was just the early adopters but if it goes more and more mainstream correlations could…correlate.

  128. 378
    pfft says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 370:

    RE: David @ 368 – The markets have been turned into casinos, FYI

    People have been saying that for 200 or so years. You don’t have to play it like it’s a casino.

    People who say that often put their money in rentals or small businesses. There is a lot of risk there too.

  129. 379
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 361:

    By pfft @ 355:

    The Trumps tariffs are finally hitting the housing market no?.

    Amazing how you think higher prices in the form of a tariff affects decisions, but you don’t think that a significantly higher minimum wage affects decisions. Pick and choose what to believe much? Or do you just believe the leaders of your tribe?

    No. Studies show tariffs hurt jobs. They don’t show that for the min wage. That is how I determine is stuff is good or bad. Studies. Actual evidence.

    You think if people at the bottom of the economic ladder have more money that is a bad thing?

    “Pick and choose what to believe much? Or do you just believe the leaders of your tribe?

    That is some good psyops/trolling there kary, Try harder though.

    Republicans are against tariffs it’s just that Trump is in office so you are wrong on the tribe argument too.

    McConnell becomes the latest Republican to break from Trump on tariffs
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/01/politics/mcconnell-trump-tariffs/index.html

    Paul Ryan: ‘New tariffs are not the solution’
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/paul-ryan-tariffs-white-house-donald-trump/index.html

    Since it seems you don’t know a lot about politics, McConnell is the leader in the Senate and Ryan the leader in the House. They are both Republicans. That is how you troll Kary. Facts and sarcasm.

  130. 380
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: pfft @ 377 – I’m still not sure why that matters to what I responded to Market Psychologist on the topic of BTC leading into stock decline. Or are you pivoting to a different conversation?

    If you are now talking about this different topic, then are you saying that things don’t correlate until they do?

  131. 381
    Matt P says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 375:

    RE: uwp @ 373 – housing number on Canada showing increasing sign of soft landing with just modest adjustment in prices after facing higher rate and tougher regulations, according to Bloomberg just now — a Goldilocks scenario.

    It is possible, maybe not probable for Seattle area as well, there are no sure things, only levels of uncertainty. One might also argue that Vancouver/Toronto have seen much more Chinese capital injection (because it’s easier to gain citizenship there) than around here.

    Bloomberg is the ultimate bubble pumper. Prices are steadily marching down in Canada and will continue to do so for some time. Whether that happens here remains to be seen. Ours will be market forces. There they passed laws to get the results they wanted.

  132. 382
    Notme says:

    Buyers, just say no
    the strike is working, sit tight
    rentals plentiful

    -a why-buy-when-rent-is-less-than-mortgage-interest bubble haiku

  133. 383
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Matt P @ 380 – I wasn’t aware that Bloomberg is the ultimate bubble pumper. Of housing? They report a bunch of things. Quite a claim. Don’t think I’ve heard that one before.

  134. 384
    redmondjp says:

    As the big knife falls
    to catch or not to catch
    that is the question

    – a deflating-bubble-theme haiku

  135. 385
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 372:

    By Market Psychologist @ 370:

    RE: Joe @ 364 – But, Joe, my realtor said I need to lock-in these low rates while I can. Also told me I needed to get in last year before I was priced out forever. Maybe next year I’ll hear that I should buy the dip! Wonder what the sellers will hear? Hmmm….

    Well, if you bought a median home last year you are probably still in the positive as Ardell’s quick stats show. And you would have an interest rate under 4%, saving you several hundred dollars a month vs current rates. Plus, you would have paid down close to $10k in principal and be one+ year closer to owning your home free-and-clear. You would also be in line for at least a thousand dollars in tax savings vs the standard deduction (easily more depending on your tax situation). You wouldn’t be worried about what your landlord has planned for the coming year (maybe they are one of those “sellers rushing for the exits).

    It’s not all bad…

    Math is all wrong. Even if you had a mortgage loan at 4% a year ago, the interest payment alone would be comparable to rent payment. (The $10k principal payment is irrelevant here. E.g. $10k in house equity vs $10k in the stock market.)

    The homeowner still has to pay property tax of $12k plus $3k insurance maintenance. (Maintenance should be significantly higher but that is a separate topic.)

    Without question, cap rate for this million dollar rental property is negative. Unless there is a substantial capital appreciation, the landlord is bleeding cash. The negative cash flow will catch up sooner or later.

  136. 386
    Notme says:

    Homeowners buy! now!
    cap rate below mortgage rate
    lose money each month

    -a homeowners-should-definitely-buy-2nd-house-and-become-landlords bubble haiku

  137. 387
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 385
    Cap rate is the ratio of net operating income to price and is generally used to compare investment properties. Cap rate is not affected by the existence or absence of a mortgage. That ratio can get pretty low but it would be extremely unusual to become negative, as you wrote. That would require property tax, insurance, plus maintenance to be less than the rent.

  138. 388
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 385 – That specific example means that that specific situation isn’t a viable cash flow scheme. It doesn’t mean nothing related to housing is.
    Those who bought much earlier got in on the lower price and lower mortgage rate, so their cash flow scheme is still justifiable.
    The ones who buy today just to rent out are the speculators, and it isn’t the worst thing that the speculators are shunt from the local real estate.

  139. 389
    Eastsider says:

    RE: northender @ 387 – Yes, you are correct. But I would put a much higher number on maintenance and insurance (plus vacancy.) A $1m condo HOA fee can easily run $2k/month which covers mostly maintenance/reserve costs. So negative cap rates are not as rare in expensive housing markets with low rents (e.g rent-control.)

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 388 – So if you bought GE shares from decades ago, your continued holding of GE shares is ‘justifiable’ today because…?
    Also, people like you who bought houses 6 years ago were investors, and the ones who bought houses today are speculators?! Why makes you believe these speculators won’t be successful investors a decade from now?!

  140. 390
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 389 – again, things aren’t just cut and dry like what you continue to make it out to be. You bring up the worst case, previously in bond, then now in housing, to make it seem like either is just junk and no point of holding. let’s put it this way, because those speculators believe that Seattle is a tech hub and remains significantly underpriced vs the other coastal tech hubs, so even if they want to park their cash so they buy today, they might just gain over time beyond the inflation. You may laugh at them in short term but that isn’t their time horizon. A couple months of numbers and people are already super sure of this being just like 06’, there are just 100% no other ways huh? And don’t give me that credit cycle theory, I’m very aware of it. There are no certainty in life, you just hedge against the risk probability.

    Why not focus your energy on how to profit in these worst case scenarios, perhaps enlighten people on this blog. You think GE bond is junk, so what can you do to profit? Did you come up with a scheme to trade the swap on CDS?

  141. 391
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 389 – I was a speculator as well (don’t know the difference TBH), I just had more confidence that property value would rise 6 years ago, I’m not sure how one would make that assumptions today or maybe they could in certain pockets. Maybe you can call them bubble mongers lol Notme or Justme would be fine with it.

    As for the bonds, I don’t believe in holding bonds to maturity as a viable investment strategy for myself, but in the GE case I gladly trade the swaps on the CDS. You should too.

  142. 392

    By pfft @ 379:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 361:

    By pfft @ 355:

    The Trumps tariffs are finally hitting the housing market no?.

    Amazing how you think higher prices in the form of a tariff affects decisions, but you don’t think that a significantly higher minimum wage affects decisions. Pick and choose what to believe much? Or do you just believe the leaders of your tribe?

    No. Studies show tariffs hurt jobs. They don’t show that for the min wage. That is how I determine is stuff is good or bad. Studies. Actual evidence.

    No, you just choose which studies to believe. If they don’t agree with what the leaders of your tribe say you don’t believe them.

    You think if people at the bottom of the economic ladder have more money that is a bad thing?

    The issue is whether it does help them! Clearly some people will benefit, others though will be harmed. That’s what the UW study says that you don’t believe, and that is what anyone with any understanding of the real world would believe.

    “Pick and choose what to believe much? Or do you just believe the leaders of your tribe?

    That is some good psyops/trolling there kary, Try harder though.

    That’s you! You are a very partisan person who happens to believe anything your tribe (Democrats) leaders say.

    Republicans are against tariffs it’s just that Trump is in office so you are wrong on the tribe argument too.

    McConnell becomes the latest Republican to break from Trump on tariffs
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/01/politics/mcconnell-trump-tariffs/index.html

    Paul Ryan: ‘New tariffs are not the solution’
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/paul-ryan-tariffs-white-house-donald-trump/index.html

    Since it seems you don’t know a lot about politics, McConnell is the leader in the Senate and Ryan the leader in the House. They are both Republicans. That is how you troll Kary. Facts and sarcasm.

    Not sure what the point of that is. I was talking about what you believe. You think a tax (tariff) on goods is bad, but a tax (minimum wage) on employees is good. I wasn’t talking about what particular leaders think of those. But if you bothered to look their position on tariffs is much more nuanced than that. But that is not the issue. The issue is your acceptance of anything the Democrats say, even though economically they are identical and lead to opposing decisions.

  143. 393
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 391 – I would agree that buying houses 6 years ago is more sound, based on cap rate/cash flow, than today. Still, the main reason that property prices (and stock market) have risen so much is due to FED policies.

    I brought up GE shares, not its bonds.

  144. 394

    Disneyland Tourists in LA Enjoying the New Normal

    White skies instead of baby blue colored with breathing masks…

    https://apnews.com/e0082d079001472b8e9c223dc384ac88

    Seattle this Summer too?

  145. 395
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 385:

    Math is all wrong. Even if you had a mortgage loan at 4% a year ago, the interest payment alone would be comparable to rent payment.

    Without question, cap rate for this million dollar rental property is negative. Unless there is a substantial capital appreciation, the landlord is bleeding cash. The negative cash flow will catch up sooner or later.

    If you look at my post, I said the buyer of a median home would be doing OK.

    I agree, don’t buy million dollar homes with 5% interest rate mortgages that you can rent instead for $3,000/month. (Unless you plan on living there long term.)

    My issue is with the people who have been saying don’t buy any home for the last few years.

  146. 396
    ess says:

    More and more articles and editorials being published about the fact that the entire process that Amazon undertook to pick another “headquarters” was driven in part to tap talent for their workforce on the East Coast. Tax breaks for Amazon was just a sweetener, and many cynics (including this one) understood that Amazon was just applying its economic leverage to obtain a financial edge. DC or NYC are not going to present their new employees inexpensive housing, and those areas have an array of taxes, including state and local city income taxes (NYC) and capital gains taxes. Thus it is my belief that the exodus of Amazon employees from Seattle to the hypothetical HQ2 that many were concerned about is not going to transpire, except for a few individuals that have an overwhelming desire to relocate to either location. They certainly aren’t going to transfer to either location for inexpensive housing or favorable tax benefits. I have already read comments from disappointed Amazonians that all things considered , they will stay in Seattle. Furthermore, while Amazon won’t be hiring in the breakneck pace that they have been, they are still hiring, and the Amazon workforce will continue to grow at a slower rate. Absent some financial event on the macro level, this is not going to be a repeat of the great Boeing meltdown of the early 70s. Thus it will be interesting to see how the real estate market does in next spring’s selling season.

  147. 397
    Dustin says:

    By ess @ 396:

    Thus it is my belief that the exodus of Amazon employees from Seattle to the hypothetical HQ2 that many were concerned about is not going to transpire, except for a few individuals that have an overwhelming desire to relocate to either location.

    If Amazon’s business continues to do well during this next growth phase (which I think is a more important question for our local economy), it may even lead some individuals to consider relocating to Seattle from NYC or Washington D.C.

  148. 398
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 393 – Sorry thought you discussing the GE bond, which is what’s leading to GE share tanking. My bad.

    The housing rise has to do with both bustling economy to increase demand on local level and artificially kept low long term rate by the Fed to increase affordability, which is also driven by wage growth. Then the layer of speculation boost is assessed by how the speculators judge those factor balance. Now the affordability is relatively lowered, and perhaps population growth will slow or redistribute, so we can see the speculation (in both new construction and money parking) slow in Seattle going forward. Then it’s up to the layoffs (Nordstrom perhaps) and relocation to further up the supply side, how that will balance with the tech company movements (mostly on Eastside) is where I’m gauging the risk.

  149. 399

    RE: ess @ 396 – I think that’s a fair analysis. HQ2 will be attractive to some, but not nearly as attractive for many as would have been other choices. I think it would mainly be attractive to people originally from those areas, and few others.

  150. 400
    QA Observer says:

    A big developer is proposing three new projects in Seattle that is anticipated to add 2,000 rentals units to the already bloated inventory. Apparently, this developer has numerous projects in Vancouver that are fully occupied, but sit mostly empty.

    It appears that this may be coming in a little too late to the party, but may be not.

    Note to self: never develop on the 3rd Avenue corridor.

    http://westbankcorp.com/press/westbank-tees-3-big-projects-seattle

  151. 401

    RE: David @ 366
    Tariffs Are Damaging Foreign Real Estate Lately in General, Not American

    I agree that Seattle may be looked at as a separate Chinese/Japanese/European entity…but the general impact of tariffs [like cars, steel and aluminum] in Seattle is an upward push on American stocks and real estate. BTW, just bought an American made Aluminum large turkey pan for 98 cents…

    You anti-Tariff folks don’t look at it generally evidently. Nor do you give us any real world examples to bite into to…..just wild/false allegations against Trump and lies?

  152. 402
    Eastsider says:

    Seattle is now included in the RE anti-money laundering program. The order covers “all-cash purchases” through limited liability companies of $300,000 or more of residential property. You can expect far fewer dark money and all cash transactions from overseas.

    U.S. Expands Coverage of Real Estate Anti-Money Laundering Program
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-expands-coverage-of-real-estate-anti-money-laundering-program-1542322224

    The U.S. Treasury Department said Thursday it has expanded an anti-money-laundering data program that requires title insurance companies to reveal the owners of shell companies buying luxury real estate.

    Shell-company real estate deals are legal, but they’re attractive to money launderers because a deal can be made anonymously and the buyer doesn’t have to explain the origin of the funds used. The industry largely has avoided regulatory scrutiny over its risks of money laundering until recent years.

    After the program first went into effect, all-cash purchases by companies dropped nationally by about 70%, even in areas not subject to the requirements, according to a paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the University of Miami.

  153. 403

    RE: Dustin @ 397
    Where Do They Work?

    Ahhhhh…yes, last I saw Jack in the Box is hiring [AMZ type wages]. Last I saw in writing JB offers health care [and 40 hour weeks with flex time] like Amazon without the Besos employee slave wage whip….LOL

  154. 404
    biliruben says:

    We need to elect some officials with a spine, who will actually have the balls to regulate Amazon. It’s business model is clearly monopolistic and anti-competitive. The day of reckoning will come sooner or later. Or it better, for the sake of the few good bits of our capitalist economic structure.

  155. 405

    RE: Eastsider @ 402
    Great Article Eastsider

    No more Swiss account tax evasion schemes our American/foreign lobbyists [mostly rich elite Open Border politicians too?] generally get away with without prosecution by our Open Border courts…

    I don’t like that Socialist Cortez, but agree with her on this key issue….the AMZ welfare “DNC/RNC pay outs” by We the People have got to end.

  156. 406

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 314
    Think About It

    Tax Cut Phase II in 2020 if you vote Trump….Tax cut phase I elimination if you vote Open Border Party….Trump will be our new President in 2020.

  157. 407
    biliruben says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 406 – And crush the lives our our children and grandchildren with vast piles of debt. Brilliant.

    I guess that’s one way to stop immigration. Turn the US into a bankrupt hell-hole that nobody would want to come to.

  158. 408

    Open Border Folks From SF

    Now have to go on weekend long drives just to breath…

    https://mail.yahoo.com/d/folders/1/messages/80576

    Cough, sneeze and rub irritating eyes….

  159. 409
    uwp says:

    By QA Observer @ 400:

    A big developer is proposing three new projects in Seattle that is anticipated to add 2,000 rentals units to the already bloated inventory.
    http://westbankcorp.com/press/westbank-tees-3-big-projects-seattle

    Thank you for this year and a half old article about a project that began construction 6 months ago.

    Do you have any other updates from years past?

  160. 410

    By QA Observer @ 400:

    Apparently, this developer has numerous projects in Vancouver that are fully occupied, but sit mostly empty.

    Hmmm. A real estate riddle. ;-)

  161. 411

    By softwarengineer @ 401:

    You anti-Tariff folks don’t look at it generally evidently. Nor do you give us any real world examples to bite into to…..just wild/false allegations against Trump and lies?

    You’re just the converse of pfft on minimum wage. Of course tariffs have an effect. There was a report earlier this week that Washington fruit exports were down over 25%. But with the tariffs, part of that is beyond economic–part of the behavior is foreign consumers trying to hit back at the US.

    That said, tariffs and the threat of tariffs apparently lead to a new NAFTA agreement, which by most reports is better than the original (but still not all it could be). So I do think you need to look at the long term, not just the short term, which is generally negative.

  162. 412
    Brian says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 402

    That’s a pretty huge deal that they added Seattle to the list and lowered the price limit. I remember the launch of that program in 2016 and was surprised at how high the limit was and that Seattle was not on the list. Could see a lot less all-cash buyers around here.

  163. 413

    RE: Brian @ 412 – That news is really several months old (although not sure about the dollar amount reduction). Note it doesn’t apply to properties bought in the name of individuals, only entities.

  164. 414
    Matt P says:

    By Brian @ 412:

    RE: Eastsider @ 402

    That’s a pretty huge deal that they added Seattle to the list and lowered the price limit. I remember the launch of that program in 2016 and was surprised at how high the limit was and that Seattle was not on the list. Could see a lot less all-cash buyers around here.

    Yes, this is maasive. It absolutely killed the high end Miami condo market where there is something like 7 years of supply now since it was all money laundering. Will be interesting to see how much effect it has here.

  165. 415
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 414 – Proving the cash is legit is a bigger hurdle than the foreigner tax in Vancouver IMO.

  166. 416
    eddiemaster says:

    In WSJ today, interesting news on increase in reverse mortgage based on inflated appraisal in FHA insured loans, possibly leading to tightening in that department.

  167. 417
    eddiemaster says:

    Seriously considering doing a 1031 and pile in on the LIC gravy train. LIC is designated as Opportunity Zone, lots of tax benefits for the investors. Thoughts?

  168. 418
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 415:

    RE: Matt P @ 414 – Proving the cash is legit is a bigger hurdle than the foreigner tax in Vancouver IMO.

    Agree. Lots of factors converging right now to bring down prices – price growth without accompanying wage growth souring buyers, interest rate increases, SALT reduction, reverse QE and now a huge reduction in money laundering.

  169. 419
    sfrz says:

    RE: biliruben @ 404 – He knows the knives are out. His monopolistic business is shifting with the wind. Cut it up into tiny pieces. For the good of the country. Tax issues, ICE issues, Postal system, monopoly. Check out the comments.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/bezos-tells-employees-one-day-amazon-will-fail-and-to-stay-hungry.html
    and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6399117/One-day-Amazon-bankrupt-Jeff-Bezos-warns-staff-retail-giant-not-big-fail.html

  170. 420
    Bumble says:

    RE: sfrz @ 419

    That is scary for Seattle. As Amazon goes, so goes Seattle.

    “Amazon now occupies more office space than the next 40 biggest employers in the city combined.”
    https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2017/08/28/thanks-amazon-seattle-now-americas-biggest-company-town/607901001/

    Odds are that the Amazon exodus will come sometime during the next century, maybe sooner than we think. Who knows. And it might be like Boeing in the 1970s all over.

  171. 421
    ess says:

    By Dustin @ 397:

    By ess @ 396:

    Thus it is my belief that the exodus of Amazon employees from Seattle to the hypothetical HQ2 that many were concerned about is not going to transpire, except for a few individuals that have an overwhelming desire to relocate to either location.

    If Amazon’s business continues to do well during this next growth phase (which I think is a more important question for our local economy), it may even lead some individuals to consider relocating to Seattle from NYC or Washington D.C.

    That is right – not only is the Seattle Amazon operation still going to be the largest one by far, but for many, Seattle is still more advantageous than the other two “headquarters”. I know – I have lived in all three areas, and Seattle with all its problems is still superior than the other locations, especially for outside “quality of life”.

  172. 422
    ess says:

    By Bumble @ 420:

    RE:<

    Odds are that the Amazon exodus will come sometime during the next century, maybe sooner than we think. Who knows. And it might be like Boeing in the 1970s all over.

    Not quite. The Boeing collapse resulted in a company downsizing from 100K employees to 40K employees in a state that had a population of about three million people.

    The State of Washington has more than double that population, with more people residing and working in the Puget Sound area that has full employment, than all of Washington State in the 1970s.. Even if Amazon disappeared and all 40K employees were eventually let go (which won’t happen), it would impact the area – but nothing like the Boeing fiasco – which I happened to experience first hand as a youngster trying to get my first real job. More people were laid off in the Boeing crisis back then than Amazon has employed in its entire Seattle operation today. One had to experience the Boeing fiasco personally to really appreciate how bad things were back then. College graduates working as janitors and warehouse people.

    This is why in some respects, it is good that Amazon is branching out elsewhere, and perhaps other business will either relocate to this area, or those that are here will grow their current workforce. One thing a city doesn’t want is to be a one industry town (except for DC and suburbs – the government will live on forever regardless of the economic climate so no worries in that industry).

  173. 423
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: ess @ 421 – From a speculative perspective though, LIC is prime, vs Seattle/Eastside. LIC is categorized as Opportunity Zones (loads of tax benefits), and its RE prices have been under pressure for some time, so short squeeze time. I don’t think Amazon will have much trouble attracting 25k employees there (whether it is at the expense of Seattle or not), let along a number of startups and other service industries that will crowd into that area over the next decade.
    Needless to say, it takes a bit more (1.5 mil~) to play in LIC speculation game as the area is already significantly more expensive than here. So the impact to Seattle is probably marginal if other companies will continue to hire.
    I’m not badmouthing the local real estate but it is under some headwinds and uncertainty. Speculators don’t like uncertainties, and higher yields are to be had elsewhere.

  174. 424
    ess says:

    By eddiemaster @ 423:

    RE: ess @ 421 – From a speculative perspective though, LIC is prime, vs Seattle/Eastside. LIC is categorized as Opportunity Zones (loads of tax benefits), and its RE prices have been under pressure for some time, so short squeeze time. I don’t think Amazon will have much trouble attracting 25k employees there (whether it is at the expense of Seattle or not), let along a number of startups and other service industries that will crowd into that area over the next decade.
    Needless to say, it takes a bit more (1.5 mil~) to play in LIC speculation game as the area is already significantly more expensive than here. So the impact to Seattle is probably marginal if other companies will continue to hire.
    I’m not badmouthing the local real estate but it is under some headwinds and uncertainty. Speculators don’t like uncertainties, and higher yields are to be had elsewhere.

    ]\

    I know Amazon won’t have trouble attracting young employees to NY for employment. NYC went from quite the depressing place in the 1960s to 1970s to an exciting place it is today. I have visited NYC a few times as of having lived there, and I do enjoy the changes (for a few days) that I see.

    Problem is that it has really become an expensive place to obtain a residence, and although it has an extensive bus and subway system, it is still nice to have a car to get around the outer boroughs and beyond. Unless you reside in Manhattan – it can take a really long time to get around by public transportation.

    What I am saying that in my opinion, there isn’t going to be the mass exodus of Seattle employees relocating to either place in search of cheaper living expenses. The two new headquarters don’t provide that.

  175. 425
    eddiemaster says:

    RE: ess @ 424 – Ahh point taken. I agree about higher probability that there won’t be mass exodus of AMZN employees to LIC (per sf price of $1670 for a 2 bed). HQ2’s impact to the supply side will probably be more limited than it has on the demand side.
    I like the perspective of allowing others to play (not sure whether that will translate to RE gain). AMZN has been taking that bullying mentality in its expansion. Its attitude is often extended to its employees. I should know, I have to face my sister on Thanksgiving soon.

  176. 426
    eddiemaster says:

    Dollar slipped today as Fed’s Vice signaled possible slowing/stoppage of interest rate hike, perhaps expectations regarding slowing the unwind as well, seeing that 10y yield trended back down to beginning of Oct level. Perhaps mortgage rate won’t increase the way people have been worrying about (at least I kind of did), hopefully clarity sooner.

  177. 427
    sfrz says:

    Gives a new meaning to “skid row” doesn’t it. Skidding down down down….
    “…evidence that the market is cooling down can be seen in price drops. In October 31.3 percent of homes for sale had at least one price drop of more than 1 percent. This is the highest share of price drops on record since Redfin began tracking this metric in 2010, and 6.3 percentage points above last October’s level of 25 percent. In Seattle, almost half of homes for sale had price drops, with an average price cut of $27,500, down from more than $30,000 a year earlier.”

    Inventory

    San Jose, CA had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 111% year over year, followed by Seattle (73%) and Oakland, CA (42%).”
    https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/11/real-estate-market-tracker-october-2018.html

  178. 428
    Joe says:

    RE: eddiemaster @ 426

    Don’t be silly. A Fed representative just said there may be 4 rate hikes next year. Rates are going up, up, up.

  179. 429
    Notme says:

    Bubble-mongers prattle
    agreeing back and forth
    oh so convincing

    -a bubble propaganda haiku

  180. 430
    Justme says:

    RE: eddiemaster @ 426
    RE: Joe @ 428

    Joe is correct, and eddiemaster is making unfounded claims. The bottom line is that both FRB officials speaking today strongly supported further gradual rate hikes.

    FRB Vice Chair Richard Clarida was VERY clear that he supports continuing gradual rate hikes. Read the transcript from today.

    LIESMAN: We have several people who are coming on our air these days saying that the – this is the result of the market thinking the fed the going too far too fast.

    CLARIDA: Well first of all, Steve, the Fed began hiking rates three years ago. And so it’s been a very gradual cycle. You know, the economy is growing north of 3%. Unemployment’s at a 50-year low almost. And so I think also right now, you think at the policy rate we set, the federal funds rate is now just barely above the rate of inflation for the first time in a decade. SO i wouldn’t agree with that.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-us-federal-reserve-vice-chairman-richard-clarida-speaks-with-cnbcs-steve-liesman-today.html

    New (2019) FOMC voting member Charles Evans was taking the same tack:

    QUOTE: Evans said Friday he believes three or four hikes are most likely in 2019. Evans, who has turned more hawkish than in the early days of the rate-tightening cycle, takes his turn on the rotational policy-setting panel in 2019.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-evans-sees-possibility-of-up-to-four-interest-rate-hikes-in-2019-2018-11-16

  181. 431
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Justme @ 430 – yea numbers don’t lie Justme, investors piled in on 10y T, after Clarida emphasized the importance of relying incoming economic data to gauge the rate increase. Now it seems that every bear on this blog know for sure that a recession is upon us, so that means the data won’t be good and rate hikes will slow or stop, you gotta live with one or the other.
    I know you make zero dollar in investment since you enjoy being wrong, so you can look at those statements and interpret however way a regular Joe sees it, but investors don’t mess around when there is real money involved.
    And don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating that people go out and buy properties, I remain slightly bearish near term but watchful of all the numbers. I’m flexible with the conjectures unlike the unwavering certainty stance that you and Joe and probably a few others take.

  182. 432
    Blurtman says:

    So you invest $1 million in five year UST’s yielding 3% at the time of purchase and hold to maturity. You receive your $1 million back at the end of five years, and $30,000 per year for five years. Under absolutely no circumstances have you lost money. If yields rise to 4% and you sell your UST’s before maturity, yes, you will lose money, just as you would selling underwater shares. But no loss if holding to maturity. Likewise if yields fall to 2%, and you sell before maturity you would have made money.

    Kary goes to the head of the class.

  183. 433

    By sfrz @ 427:

    Gives a new meaning to “skid row” doesn’t it. Skidding down down down….
    “…evidence that the market is cooling down can be seen in price drops.

    Actually that’s just evidence of overpriced listings. There’s one I was involved with on the buyer’s side where not only was there a 10% (roughly) price drop before we showed the place, but it was still overpriced. The seller seemingly didn’t want to listen to the specific reasons why it was overpriced relative to other properties in the same neighborhood, and now it is an expired listing rather than a pending listing.

    So clearly the prior price drop(s) on that listing didn’t indicate a reduction in value as much as clear over-pricing.

  184. 434

    By Blurtman @ 432:

    So you invest $1 million in five year UST’s yielding 3% at the time of purchase and hold to maturity. You receive your $1 million back at the end of five years, and $30,000 per year for five years. Under absolutely no circumstances have you lost money. If yields rise to 4% and you sell your UST’s before maturity, yes, you will lose money, just as you would selling underwater shares. But no loss if holding to maturity. Likewise if yields fall to 2%, and you sell before maturity you would have made money.

    Kary goes to the head of the class.

    Thank you, but to complete that, if you sold after the rate cut to take the gain you would not have the option of investing in interest bearing instruments at the same rate as before (absent investing in entities with increased risk). So you might not want to take the gain. Conversely, there may be situations where it’s worth taking the loss if interest rates rise, but that could depend on many factors, including where you think interest rates will trend in the future.

  185. 435

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 431
    Household Debt Rises Like 25% Recently

    Some is delinquent student loans, but those $30+K slug tin cans they call cars and the insurance rate hikes in Seattle, property taxes, maintenance, higher gas prices, etc, etc…are driving us all to Reverse Mortgages, etc…

    The fun goes on and on…the Bubbleheads worry about is there anything left for rent and home mortgages?

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/household-debt-hit-record-high-13-5-trillion-last-quarter-n937216

  186. 436

    We Love Our Booze in Seattle

    We’re the 2nd worst consumer city of alcohol in America [San Diego is the worst]…but add to that the women are downing more booze than ever lately, killing off younger women in groves. Job stress?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2018/11/16/alcohol-deaths-emergency-room-increase-middle-aged-women-addiction-opioids/1593347002/

    Horrifying.

  187. 437
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 434 – Yes, precisely. Bond laddering may help with risk, but if your portfolio holds a mixture of bonds of different terms yielding less than UST’s, you may want to consider ditching it and your advisor.

  188. 438
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 435 – yep I posted earlier about the phenomenon of increase in reverse mortgage based on inflated appraisal in FHA, a lot was used to pay down mortgage, expect tightening in that.. or not…

  189. 439
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 437 – you can swing trade the 10y Treasury. It’s becoming predictable in a upward channel (so yea probably higher mortgage rate short term, at least higher highs and higher lows). The Fed release the unwind of 30 billion in treasury around mid each month so you see the increase in yield (so short) swing to oversold but then the market turmoil as well as expectations to raise rate causes investors to flock to bond (ride the swing up) rinse and repeat. Bear or bull, you can make money.

  190. 440
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 433 – This is exactly why buyers are sitting out. Who is going to blink first, as the skid continues.

  191. 441

    By sfrz @ 440:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 433 – This is exactly why buyers are sitting out. Who is going to blink first, as the skid continues.

    Or you can just find a more reasonable seller–they do exist. Believe it or not, there are actually sellers who will pick toward the lower end of the price range recommended by their agent! ;-)

    But that there are many unreasonable sellers means that the inventory levels are not really as good for buyers as what the raw numbers would indicate.

  192. 442

    RE: biliruben @ 330
    Wrong Biliruben

    My son’s disabled home is a small business and Trump gave it a 25% tax deduction on company investment….like mortgage home maintenance. Believe me, disabled homes need MASS maintenance or the Wash State closes them down after yearly inspections.

    All small businesses got a 25% tax deduction for putting money into their businesses to hire more folks…

  193. 443

    This is an interesting article about the shortage of workers for manufacturing jobs.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612425/heres-what-a-manufacturing-skills-gap-of-more-than-2-million-people-will-look-like/

    Which reminds me of the recent documentary/infomercial about the factory that builds the Ford F-150. That factory is less than five years old, and highly automated, but per one comment in the episode they employ more people overseeing the machinery than with the old system. Also, related to the article, it’s a very clean environment–their metal connection technology is flash free, so no smoke. Even still, I would imagine most the jobs are rather mind numbing.

  194. 444

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 439
    You Can Bet On More Federal Debt Increasing the Dec 7 Budget Deadline On Enlarging the Debt Ceiling Again [Elimination of Our Tax Cuts]

    But the lame duck Congress and Trump’s Veto Pen, makes this a pipe dream.

    Nope, enjoy the higher saving interest or swig more Seattle booze if you’re in debt?

  195. 445

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 443
    We Lost Our Manufacturing Engineering in America

    Made in America without HQ’s in-plant producibility checks means dull/uncreative innovation, car body designs that are all mostly ugly and “mimic” each other and insane price tags for pea sized tin cans….the engineer canary in the coal mine is already dead. Ask Boeing Seattle.

    Hades there’s so many different foreign brands of cars in America now that all look alike, no one knows how to fix them anymore, and we all mostly hate ’em anyway [especially their prices]. They don’t do OEM body work at dealers anymore. OEM tires and wheels [i.e.] for like a two year old car have to be ordered out-of-state with a one week wait…the fun goes on and on….and LOL Michelin tires are junk now….LOL

  196. 446
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 444 – I don’t see a problem with splurging on a pour of Thomas Handy or Little Book here and there. Gotta enjoy the finer things in life, it’s a celebration.
    I don’t doubt the debt ceiling increase, DC must spend (to make more later) or sell more to cover the debt interest at the same time moderate the tax cuts benefiting disproportionately to the high income earners. My post was more referring to the balance sheet unwind and the impact to longer term Treasury. But I see where ur head is at, we should factor those debt parameters in as well.

  197. 447
    Notme says:

    Bubbler is bullish
    Also slightly bearish now
    But bullish, buy now!

    -a dissonance-is-getting-very-loud bubble haiku

  198. 448
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Notme @ 447 – hey it’s loser Notme again with nonsense! Good thing it takes zero intelligence to pick 2-3 words out of a paragraph to say nothing, there’s a place for everyone in the comment section~

  199. 449
    Notme says:

    Bullish in context
    bearish out of context
    does it all makes sense?

    -a look-what-a-reasonable-bearish-bullish-bubble-monger-I-am-so-buy!-now! bubble haiku

  200. 450
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Notme @ 449 – lol nice! Now if only u get a penny every time.

  201. 451
    Anonymous user says:

    This just feels like Amazon giving the finger to Sawant and the Seattle City Council.

    “Amazon’s NYC digs being built on land that would have been used for low-income housing”

    https://boingboing.net/2018/11/17/amazons-nyc-digs-being-built.html/amp

  202. 452
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Anonymous user @ 451 – it’s the significant tax benefits from investing in Opportunity Zones, which LIC is designated as. Amazon doesn’t sweat someone like Sawant, the accidental middle finger is just a cherry on top.
    Basically how I feel about Notme, it’s whatever, at least there’s someone bagging groceries until the robots replace it.

  203. 453
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 452 – Just wondering why you take it so personally when others opine that the real estate price gains may be over? When they say prices will go down because of a, b and c, why not just state that you believe they won’t because of x, y and z, and leave it at that? You seem to lash out with personal insults. Honestly just curious. Thanks.

  204. 454
    Notme says:

    Bullish add letter
    describes bubbler to a “t”
    fun permutations

    -a “nonsense loser” bubble haiku

  205. 455
    Justme says:

    Weekend Update, graphical edition:

    Weekend active inventory update, King County, graphical edition. As always, click on link, then click once more for enlarged view.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-11-17
    https://imgur.com/a/Cpyofti

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-11-17
    https://imgur.com/a/KiBqec1

    To put seasonal droop in perspective, I decided to plot hourly inventory ratios for 2017 versus 2018. That’s an easy way to see how the inventory is doing. That brings up the question of whether to align the inventory by weekday, or by date. So I did both. Turns out that the noise is tolerable for both. Weekday-based alignment is typicallyless noisy most of the time, but date-based alignment shines around date-based holidays (think: 4th of July).

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-11-17
    https://imgur.com/a/ConCLXU

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-11-17
    https://imgur.com/a/PsJRonK

    Wow, look at those upward streaks. Bring your laptop and show’em off if you meet any bubble-mongers or sellers or buyers this weekend.

  206. 456
    Justme says:

    I posted a weekend update, graphical edition, a few minutes ago, but it is not appearing yet. Checking with @The_Tim what is wrong (4 imgur links this time, but not seeing any moderation indicator either).

  207. 457
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 454 – I’m sure Tim will come through eventually, but you should post the simple edition. That probably won’t get all caught up in the system. I think it will show the buyers’ strike is working. Sellers are so dispirited that there are 200 less of them crowding the exits this week.

  208. 458
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 457

    Well, gee whiz. You walked right into a trap, didn’t you. The crowd at the exits of the King County SFH market is 1.87X the size it was same week in 2017. That’s a new high for 2018 on a YoY basis.

  209. 459
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 458 – I don’t think anyone but you has been too tied up in confusing this year with the low inventory outlier on record. But are you challenging my assertion that the sellers are dispirited, and 5% less present than a week ago?

  210. 460
    pfft says:

    By Anonymous user @ 451:

    This just feels like Amazon giving the finger to Sawant and the Seattle City Council.

    “Amazon’s NYC digs being built on land that would have been used for low-income housing”

    https://boingboing.net/2018/11/17/amazons-nyc-digs-being-built.html/amp

    If Amazon really does raise rents it might not benefit the area. If rents go up $250/month that is $3,000 per year. It might actually hurt the local economy.

  211. 461
    pfft says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 452:

    RE: Anonymous user @ 451 – it’s the significant tax benefits from investing in Opportunity Zones, which LIC is designated as. Amazon doesn’t sweat someone like Sawant, the accidental middle finger is just a cherry on top.
    Basically how I feel about Notme, it’s whatever, at least there’s someone bagging groceries until the robots replace it.

    People are basically going to go from behind the counter to out in the aisles helping people. I wonder how much in sales companies lose because they are understaffed. I been to restaurants and convenience stores that always don’t have enough people. The people that work there say it.

  212. 462
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 459

    I am contrasting and comparing 2018 with 2017, not “confusing” them. And what a contrast it is, between the two years.

    If I did not know your tactics already, I would say that you were more than a little dense. But I know what is really going on: You are more than a little dishonest.

  213. 463
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 462 – Usually you will start with the non-graphic “edition”. Today, you do not include it at all. Was the information of the past few weeks not favorable in that format to the picture you wish to present?

    From the context of your many posts, it seems you are wishing to make a parallel with 2006 (about 1.7 times the current inventory), or 2007, (about 2.4 times current inventory). Is that not right?

    On your last point, no need to choose. You, yourself, provide the proof that one can be both more than a little dense and more than a little dishonest.

  214. 464
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: pfft @ 461 – same situation with the Bellevue Police as well, which I’m not sure whether to be more or less surprised. So maybe robots aren’t displacing human in that regards at all, they just free human from lower wages tasks.

  215. 465

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 438
    My HOA [140 modular ramblers with their own land] had no open houses all of 2018….none. I’m not saying none have sold in a year, but it sure looks like that. Banks could be taking in no payments and letting the old owner live there anyway, because listing it creates a risky loan action at these prices?

    The loan qualification on a like $250K modular mortgage must be impossible to approve now [but many bought in 2016/2017 until they halted loan approvals]? This is what happens when a $100-$200K factory modular structure is assessed higher used [27 years old] than new [albeit there is practically no place in King County that allows new ones placed on empty lots].

    What a mess.

    Location, location, location…LOL

  216. 466

    RE: pfft @ 461
    Stealth Exodus Out of Seattle High Taxes

    Causes more job openings? Bring on the robots…LOL

  217. 467
    Joe says:

    It may be a good time to summarize the major factors that are causing the RE decline in Seattle, in order of importance.

    1. Interest rates have risen nearly 2% in two years and are scheduled to rise at least another percent before 12/31/2019. The mortgage rate is 5.2% now and will likely rise to 6% next year. Anybody holding a different view is trying to fighting 1,000 economists at the Fed.

    2. RE transactions have fallen consistently over the past six months while inventory has risen – dramatically. This means that buyers are less interested. Buyer sentiment has changed. What was once a fear of missing out has become a fear of losing a lot of money.

    3. Asking prices are declining three times more quickly than usual. Sold prices have fallen 9% over the last six months, although year-over-year price gains still exist. The median home owner in Seattle has already lost $67,000 value in six months. The downward price trend indicates year-over-year price gains will be vanishing soon, and year-over-year price drops will become the reality. We’ll likely see this in November data.

    4. There is a growing consensus that the economy will enter a recession in 2019 as the impact of tax cuts evaporates. Macroeconomic factors are terrible, considering the cold war on trade, likely recession, high government deficits and debt levels, and general political chaos. This brings in the prospect of layoffs and reduced immigration to Seattle.

    5. Stock markets are in a downward trend. The clear upward trend line that existed before 2018 has clearly been broken. Stock prices and RE are highly correlated, as competing investments. The turn in stock market behavior sends an ominous signal to the RE market.

    6. Amazon will not be hiring in Seattle like before. Amazon will obviously have to funnel a greater share of its future hiring to those locations. There is high risk that existing functions in Seattle will be moved to other locations. Amazon represented 30% of new hiring in Seattle. That chunk of the growth is likely now gone. No other employer can come close to making up that difference.

  218. 468

    RE: Matt P @ 257
    Stocks Sell in All Areas Due to Retirement 40IK Planning

    Include Seattle equally on the list..

  219. 469

    RE: Joe @ 467
    Great List Joe

    I’d add Smoke in the Summers [and Autumn too?]. I’m already planning my Seattle smoke summer in breathable Kansas City now. The place has recently turned “party town” with clean air and the new recreational tourist attraction or the “Amsterdam Affect” attraction [Willy Nelson’s favorite city] in Missouri. The steaks there are to die for. Now that’s nice Chong smoke…LOL

    https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/articleComments/air-quality-San-Francisco-when-will-smoke-clear-13398840.php?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=sfg_topothebay

  220. 470

    RE: softwarengineer @ 469
    From My Kent East Hill Periscope

    I drive weekdays on the freeways from like 10A-2P only, because I’m retired….the WINCO in Renton was generally pretty much half empty during those hours on the weekdays…not no more. No one works anymore? Its like been “packed parking lot and long line checkout” on weekdays for weeks/months lately…ominous BTW.

    What is going on with the total Seattle area worker employee numbers? I’ll Google it now. Looks like the employment numbers for Seattle/Bellevue/Everett are down a bit [-20,000] MOM but up YOY….no way to get just the Kent/Renton numbers from the BLS….perhaps its just the SE King County east hill area slumping in workers? Help wanted signs all over the place though and homeless folks at the same time, old habits hard to break?

    https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUDV534264400000003?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

    IMO Auburn/Kent/Renton sure misses the closure of the Auburn Boeing Fab Plant….we’re just now feeling the delayed manufacturing money removal reverberations?

    South I-5 construction in Tacoma is still messy at night in the rain [no road markings or reflectors]…but some improvement last night [cement barriers south separating freeway lanes moved]. EQC easier to get at.

  221. 471
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 467 – oh Joe, saying the same things over and over within the same week won’t make it more or less true. Still the same headwinds and the same tailwinds, just how they will balance out. I should remind you that compared to Google and Facebook, Amazon is nowhere near the highest paying company. Their SDE tend to be of lesser quality/experienced than the other tech companies as well. The reason Amazon has higher turnover is that people use it as a steppingstone to get to the other tech, not the other way around. So if I were an Amazon guy and Google and Facebook are hiring locally, why would I leave for LIC or Crystal City?
    I could reiterate the whole wage growth (affordability refactor) and local hiring and stock market turmoil/global growth leading to investors piling into bonds/Fed slows unwind, thus leading to insignificant mortgage rate change or heck even lowering, but I’m getting bored of defending against these one sided statements, it’s becoming too easy.

  222. 472
    Joe says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 471

    The barrage of data seems overwhelming to many folks, but you have to filter out the important stuff from the rest. You must learn to differentiate between clear and driving factors like I provided from the far less important factors such as perceived wage differences between Amazon and Facebook employees? It seems illogical to even mention that as a factor given it’s all based on conjecture. Also, hopefully you realize that if Amazon reduces hiring by 10,000 per year, and Facebook/Google hire 1,000, the individual wage differences are moot.

    The reason I provided the factors is to help people focus on what matters. I’d to see you and others lose a ton of money because of emotional stubbornness.

  223. 473

    By Joe @ 467:

    It may be a good time to summarize the major factors that are causing the RE decline in Seattle, in order of importance.

    I’ll just deal with the ones you mention that I have issues with.

    2. RE transactions have fallen consistently over the past six months while inventory has risen – dramatically. This means that buyers are less interested. Buyer sentiment has changed. What was once a fear of missing out has become a fear of losing a lot of money.

    It means that fewer buyers are interested, not that they are less interested. And that could be for many reasons, including buyers having bought and Amazon employees waiting for an HQ2 decision. Buyers being afraid of lower prices is likely mainly just a concern of those posting here. Other buyers consider this a buying opportunity.

    3. Asking prices are declining three times more quickly than usual. Sold prices have fallen 9% over the last six months, although year-over-year price gains still exist. The median home owner in Seattle has already lost $67,000 value in six months.

    The last statement is the most incorrect. Many houses were selling above value due to bidding wars, and that particularly affected properties near the median. What has changed is your likelihood of selling such a property above-value. So you’re correct about sold prices having dropped, but don’t confuse that with value when people were knowingly paying more than a house was worth in many situations. As to asking (list) price declines, I’m not sure where that stat comes from, but it’s pretty meaningless. It just means owners/agents are overpricing.

    4. There is a growing consensus that the economy will enter a recession in 2019 as the impact of tax cuts evaporates. Macroeconomic factors are terrible, considering the cold war on trade, likely recession, high government deficits and debt levels, and general political chaos.

    I’m not sure where you’re seeing that consensus, but there is no evaporation of the impact of tax cuts, at least not in the near future. If anything the full benefits and effect has not yet occurred. That is a long term process. And deficits and debt unfortunately have a positive impact on the economy–short term. The rest are concerns, are is the fact that economic expansion have never gone on forever. The longer it lasts the more likely it is to end in the near term.

    Finally, you neglected to mention the real estate tax increases. Those have had a negative impact on value.

  224. 474
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 472 – @Eddiemaster has decided to get rid of two properties in spring after visiting this blog. But there is no reason to be bearish at this time. LOL.

  225. 475
    Joe says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 473

    Here’s the view of your fellow real estate experts per Zillow. Over 50% of economists expect a recession in 2019. That usually means the real odds of recession are well over 50% because they are very reluctant to advertise a potential market downside.

    https://www.zillow.com/research/experts-recession-late-2019-16334/

  226. 476
    QA Observer says:

    A developer/realtor bought a larger lot and built 2 houses in lieu of 1 in its place. I was aghast when they listed both of them for what they did, so I decided to tour one. Unimpressed with the finishes I let the realtor that they were asking too much. They laughed and said I was out of touch with the market.
    60 days later I continue to chuckle. May be I should offer $500k.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2217-3rd-Ave-W-98119/home/132608?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

  227. 477
    Joe says:

    RE: Joe @ 475

    Kary, here’s a very recent Bloomberg article saying 2/3rds of economists predict recession by 2020. Note, this one is dated Sept 30, before the recent stock market fall, so odds of recession have only gone up in the view of economists.

  228. 478
  229. 479

    By Joe @ 475:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 473

    Here’s the view of your fellow real estate experts per Zillow. Over 50% of economists expect a recession in 2019. That usually means the real odds of recession are well over 50% because they are very reluctant to advertise a potential market downside.

    https://www.zillow.com/research/experts-recession-late-2019-16334/

    LOL about Zillow having real estate experts. The language I highlighted is the longest oxymoron I’ve ever seen. Zillow is an advertising company.

    As to economists getting pessimistic that is likely at least partially due to the length of the current expansion. The trade wars are a big wild card, and conceivably could turn into something good if new agreements are reached. I wouldn’t hold your breath for that to occur though, which is probably another major reason for the sediment.

  230. 480

    Here are some economic predictions for you all! From the middle of 2008. :-D

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20080625ep.htm

  231. 481
    Joe says:

    RE: QA Observer @ 476

    I predict those houses will be worth less than 70% of today’s asking price in three years. If anybody bought one of those, they should be factoring in the probability of a $500k or more market value loss.

    Price out the lumber, materials, and finishes, and you’ll see they are worth no more than $300,000. A rational person would pay no more than $300,000 for the postage lot. This means they are asking about $1.1M for three months labor from a three person construction team. The cost of that team is no more than $300k, so they are bucking for $800k profit. Reduce the price at least $500k and you get to a more realistic profit the property deserves.

  232. 482
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 472RE: Eastsider @ 474 – glad to see the bear buddy coming out to say hi. First of all, I might as I’ve admitted to being bearish near term and there are other areas to chase yields to me, second of all, I also said those two are my lowest valued ones, I could had unloaded a lot more if I wanted to but I’m not as bearish as some of you, thinking that situation is overwhelmingly one sided.
    So take those with the bias you got and start going wild with what I said again lol

    And Joe, you seem to think your opinions are closer to certainty whereas others are just conjecturing. So AMZN losing 10k here and FB/GOOG adding 1k are what..? You hacked their HR servers? It’s not surprising to me that you try to discount the tailwinds with these kinds of logic, but they will still be there and there will still be a balance in real estate. I can mitigate losses because I can hedge and still long, you can keep wishing that people lose money and stay with the populist movements. BTW recession risk and mortgage rate go in opposite direction, so take your pick.

  233. 483
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 463

    Dear reader, it appears that my weekend update inventory graphs, and what they say about the King County housing market, really gets the goat of @whatsmyname. And in a big way. I’m sometimes weak and engage this user when he trolls me with his dishonest characterizations, inane data interpretations, and attempts to muddy the waters. I’m sure that those interested in the truth largely can see through his disruptive propaganda tactics. I’ll try to be better at not getting into any lengthy arguments with him. I think the data is rather compelling, and that is all we need.

  234. 484
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: QA Observer @ 476 – that pricing is crazy and down the street you can get a 4K sf home for less.
    So 700k for land and say $350 per SF build, yep the speculator is making minimum wage if not losing money on these new builds. Love a charity case.

  235. 485
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Justme @ 483 – lol I don’t understand why you don’t see Whatsmyname’s point as being valid. I mean you want to compare this year with last year’s data and ask people to just freak out. You want to say that this is just like 07 when Whatsmyname’s point is that it isn’t, and that’s not even asking you to normalized by population. Just stop it with that bias agenda to rally the bear army, stay losing.

  236. 486
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 483

    I think successful people recognize facts and listen to well-reasoned analysis based on those facts. I agree there are some posters here who appear driven by emotion and ego. They are usually the ones that resort quickly to name-calling and insults. Unfortunately, they are likely to lose a lot of money trying to overturn facts and protect ego.

  237. 487
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 483 – Ah, Justemoi, for a fellow who likes to tell us what’s what, you sure resist telling us what we ask. I know it makes you feel the authority when you can control all of the variables, but what about the impact of that huge slice of reality that you choose to ignore? Let me recap a few questions from this thread that remain unaddressed.

    When you ignore the range and distribution of the sample to concentrate on change from the low outlier, is that really statistics?

    How long have you been looking?

    Did you decide about 2013, (say give or take a year), that houses were too expensive to justify purchase?

    Did you abandon the non-graphic “edition” because the format just doesn’t make the picture you wish to present?

    Are you trying to make a parallel with 2006 (about 1.7 times the current inventory), or 2007, (about 2.4 times current inventory)?

    These are such simple questions; mostly yes or no. Is it that hard to respond?

  238. 488
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 486 – successful people, hmm, are you calling yourself and Justme that..? Lol what have you actually done? You two constantly state one-sided claims with complete certainty, yet you don’t back it up by sticking money where your mouth is. Delusion of grandeur seems to be your most prominent trait.
    I’m still making money in this bear market and hedging against bets that’s how you have to navigate through all kinds of market sentiments. And dont self proclaim about looking at data as if you got an unique perspective, that’s what I do all day both as a job and my self interest.

  239. 489
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 486 – let me help you out, triple leverage on the sell of future contract at current CSI, and since you 100% certain, no need to even hedge.
    And since you call yourself successful, you must have at least 1 mil laying around. Go all in, you are just listening to your successful self!

  240. 490
    Eastsider says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 482:

    RE: Joe @ 472RE: Eastsider @ 474 – glad to see the bear buddy coming out to say hi. First of all, I might as I’ve admitted to being bearish near term and there are other areas to chase yields to me, second of all, I also said those two are my lowest valued ones, I could had unloaded a lot more if I wanted to but I’m not as bearish as some of you, thinking that situation is overwhelmingly one sided.

    Property transactions are expensive. People don’t make decisions to sell just because… Otherwise you will never be successful. Just my 2 cents.

  241. 491
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 490 – Back in 2004 we now see that in several qtrs subprime origination about matched number of prime origination, given the ARM length and the rate trend, we can see that 2007 and on was going to be very painful coupled with the securitization. If I see that again I’m selling within 2 qtrs, doesn’t matter the transaction cost in that case. Have to remain diligent and flexible.

  242. 492
    Joe says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 489

    I don’t respond to personal insults. I’ll respond if you can develop reasoned counter-arguments to the drivers I outlined earlier.

  243. 493
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 492 – several did already on your post today, and I’ve in the past, you have said similar things over and over again without acknowledging the other side of the equation. Then you went and discredit me by saying things like Amazon losing 10k employees while FB/Goog only adding 1k employees, and that you hope to see people lose lots of money, then you self promoted yourself by calling yourself successful… it doesn’t sound like you are trying to have a reasonable conversation. You care to defend all that..?

    Also Now are you saying that you won’t put your successfully made money into backing your claims of certainty?

  244. 494
    pfft says:

    By Joe @ 478:

    RE: Joe @ 477

    Here’s the link to the Bloomberg article

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/two-thirds-of-u-s-business-economists-see-recession-by-end-2020

    So now we know the recession won’t get here until at least 2021.

    the FRED recession probabilities gives us a less than 1% chance of recession.

  245. 495
    pfft says:

    By Joe @ 486:

    RE: Justme @ 483

    I think successful people recognize facts and listen to well-reasoned analysis based on those facts. I agree there are some posters here who appear driven by emotion and ego. They are usually the ones that resort quickly to name-calling and insults. Unfortunately, they are likely to lose a lot of money trying to overturn facts and protect ego.

    Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

    Jesse Livermore

  246. 496
    pfft says:

    A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.

    -Jesse Livermore

  247. 497

    RE: pfft @ 496
    Well Said Pfft

    I’m missed the Recession prediction on Joe’s List and agree with Kary, its anomalous at best.

    I am sure if you were lured into the stock market by the past couple years’ boom economy….and the rich took their profit taking right after you bought in it will seem like a recession….LOL

    The stock market is Las Vegas, never use it as a prediction formula unless its like YOY data. If it goes down a lot MOM, profit takers took their profit and bought in again low…its like Deep State government, hard to get a handle on it…after they grabbed all the profits, they’ll confuse you with bad investment advice….LOL

  248. 498
    Joe says:

    RE: Eddiemaster @ 493

    As expected, we get more emotion and bluster from you. All I did was lay out six reasons the market is dropping. It was intended for those persons who value information. This has shaken your emotional core for some reason. Maybe the thought that someone has a better handle on this market drives you nuts. Or, maybe it’s the facts and clear trends you don’t like.

    We’re in for a nasty Spring real estate market. By then, interest rates will be 5.6% to 5.8%. Inventory will be up. Transactions will be way down. Prices will have dropped for several months on a year-over-year basis.

  249. 499
    Eddiemaster says:

    RE: Joe @ 498 – as expected, you attempt to switch conversation instead of addressing the inquiries, and to maintain that what you claimed are facts and what you conjectured are certainty.
    I don’t disagree with some of the headwind factors you mentioned even if you have mentioned them over and over, but you don’t consider any of the tailwinds, and a lot of your claims are still conjectures. The trade war, for one, has been made a strong case of ending next year, and its impact on the local economy also isn’t what you had blown out to be, US economy already don’t depend highly on exports. You don’t bother mentioning those facts.
    Your rate prediction is also a wild guess too (despite you listing 1000 economists as a reference), particularly when you link recession risk and equity market turmoil to your factor list. The yield curve will likely invert when those two factors rise, which will push down the long term yield, thus mortgage rate, but sure, you don’t make that connection.
    The inventory factor has been addressed by others over and over in the comments and yet you keep singing the same tune. It does feel like you don’t read any of the discussions or that you can’t understand them. Hence you keep saying the same things over and over, and just blame it on people being.. emotional.
    Your claim of RE price being highly correlated to stock market.. seriously man how do you keep claiming that what you said are facts? I know making simple connections is easy, but come on, which economists did you cite..? Big changes of one can possibly lead to the other having significant movements (housing affecting stock in 08’), so there you may see some correlation whereas the cause and effect relationship is less direct. But they are not highly correlated as you claimed.
    Pretend that I’m typing in robotic tone, I don’t want you to confuse disagreement with emotions again. Now can u go put your money where ur mouth is and back it up?

  250. 500
    Eastsider says:

    By Eddiemaster @ 499:

    I don’t disagree with some of the headwind factors you mentioned even if you have mentioned them over and over, but you don’t consider any of the tailwinds, and a lot of your claims are still conjectures. The trade war, for one, has been made a strong case of ending next year, and its impact on the local economy also isn’t what you had blown out to be, US economy already don’t depend highly on exports. You don’t bother mentioning those facts.

    The trade war is ending next year?! Btw, Boeing is an important exporter. Just imagine Chinese buying airbus planes instead. You need to tone down.

    U.S.-China Rift: One Phrase ‘Torpedoed’ Pacific Accord (pay wall)
    For first time, APEC fails to issue a communiqué, as prospects dim for a deal between Beijing and Washington
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-divisions-exposed-after-one-phrase-torpedoed-pacific-accord-1542543774
    An economic summit of world leaders ended in acrimony on Sunday, as a fight over Chinese trade practices cast doubt over the ability of Washington and Beijing to resolve their trade battle soon.

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