NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further

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November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

November 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,020 -17.5% +113.9%
Closed Sales 1,811 -11.7% -18.6%
SAAS (?) 1.10 -14.5% +26.3%
Pending Sales 1,926 -16.1% -13.0%
Months of Supply 2.22 -6.5% +162.7%
Median Price* $643,913 -4.0% +2.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year ago to a seven-year high in 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down 13 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November, to its lowest level since August 2014.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

November 2018: $643,913
November 2017: $630,750
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t published their story yet. I’ll update this post when they do.

Update: Here’s the story from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever

And here’s the NWMLS press release: Home buyers have “window of opportunity” with shift to more balanced market

4.00 avg. rating (82% score) - 3 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

686 comments:

  1. 501
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: David @ 496 – Dude, your propaganda is so biased I’m actually a little embarrassed for you reading your posts.

  2. 502
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 498 – Almost nothing anyone says here has a meaningful effect on the market. Very few people even read this blog.

  3. 503
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 500

    >>Almost nothing anyone says here has a meaningful effect on the market. Very few people even read this blog.

    Then why do you bother spouting so much propaganda here? Back in the doghouse with you.

  4. 504
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 491 – Perhaps the senators that confirmed Paulson in 2006 were working without knowledge of the 2016 DOJ settlement, which, after all, did not occur until 10 years later.

  5. 505
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 419

    Ardell, this is a really good post. You give one paragraph of good information/analysis and then in the next position you take a position on where the market is heading.

    For those of you missed it, I will re-quote it here.
    ________________________________

    Every year one should expect homes that are not “positioned to sell” and have not been “positioned to sell” to pile up at year end. When the new year opens up somewhere around the 8th of January, you have to watch very closely at the new listings. Therein lies the truth of where the market is. Not where it is heading, but where the market is. You don’t know where it’s heading until Spring Bump.

    I expect good houses that are priced well to sell. I expect the median price for Spring Bump 2019 (March, Aprll, May, June closings on a combined basis) to be higher than 4th quarter 2018 median. I expect the season to be short again with July and August closings dwindling and the year to end lower than the start. That’s a down market, but not a crash. A down market still has a modest Spring Bump. It’s what happens before and after Spring Bump that tells the story of where the market is heading.
    ________________________________

    There are a whole raft of reasons to be very pessimistic about, well, everything right now. After a record length expansion, people are wondering when the next recession will start (or if it already has). Stock, bond and commodities markets are all seeing extraordinary volatility. Large parts of the government have been closed down and it is not quite clear when or how they will reopen. Our government is split and partisanship is having very corrosive effects. There are bound to be additional subpoenas and indictments of those in and near high positions in national government in the year ahead.

    If you are saying that we will end 2019 a bit lower than the start, that almost puts you in the category of the optimists.

  6. 506
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 503

    Deerhawke: >>Ardell, this is a really good post. You give one paragraph of good information/analysis

    Ardell: >>Every year one should expect homes that are not “positioned to sell” and have not been “positioned to sell” to pile up at year end.

    Except, as I have already said in this thread, the listings didn’t just pile up at year-end, they have been piling since March, as anyone can see from my weekend inventory updates and associated graphs. Buyers are on strike and unwilling to pay the price that the supply demands. Inventory above 2X or more, sales counts 0.85X or less, compared with 2017. It is that simple.

  7. 507
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 504 – Closed sales and pending sales have been near the 19 year median pretty much all year. What kind of strike is that?

  8. 508
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 504:

    Except, as I have already said in this thread, the listings didn’t just pile up at year-end, they have been piling since March, as anyone can see from my weekend inventory updates and associated graphs. Buyers are on strike and unwilling to pay the price that the supply demands. Inventory above 2X or more, sales counts 0.85X or less, compared with 2017. It is that simple.

    At the end of 2013 the NWMLS stats for inventory (3,800) and sales (1,775) were almost the exact same as this year (4,000 and 1,810) – sales were actually lower in 2013.

    Below are comments from Seattle Bubble from December 2013/January 2014 after a pause in the rise of prices, an increase of inventory, and mortgage rates rising roughly 1% from earlier in the year. (sound familiar?):

    “Inventory in my area is the lowest it’s been in over 7 years, below even last year … a lot of areas have significantly less inventory to choose from.” – mike

    “we’re not currently in a buyer frenzy situation. With the lower inventories though, that could easily happen again.” – Kary L. Krismer

    “Even better is the 12.3% increase in the months of supply. We are so far into seller advantage on this metric.” – whatsmyname

    “If I look at these other sources, it looks like inventory is headed to close out at the worst inventory level ever! For King County and particularly Seattle proper.” – Corndogs

    ” this low inventory will only drive up prices.” – Erik

    “It looks 2013 will close out as the second-worst year on record for inventory.” – The Tim

    But you are welcome to believe we are in some sort of flood of inventory and buyer freeze.

  9. 509
    uwp says:

    Of note in that late 2013 early 2014 timeframe is a bearish Erik!

    “A more likely scenario is that the global economy slumps and blackstone starts dumping rental houses on the market and I score a cash sale that way.”

    “Our economy is still very fragile. It won’t take much for another recession to happen. Wait on the sidelines with cash in hand until inventory goes up and prices go back down.”

    “Real estate doesn’t seem like a good deal right now. Super low inventory plus a recent steep price increase. Something needs to happen.”

    Does not sound like the condo flipper that we know and love!

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2014/01/23/listing-quantity-improving-years-end/

  10. 510
    Justme says:

    It is somewhat astounding for an informed person to read the bizarre contortions that the REIC propaganda department (represented by whatsmyname, uwp) is twisting themselves into, trying to argue that because some 6 years ago, active inventory and sales count number was roughly the same as it is now in Dec 2018, there is no bust, no buyer’s strike and no price drop underway today!

    What is missing from their tall tale? Well, you probably guessed it: PRICE. The price in 2018 peaked at Case-Shiller index value 259, whereas in 2012 it bottomed at 130 and in 2013 ended at 141. The price increase from bottom to peak has been 99% (*). That is **99 FREAKING PERCENT**. Do these bubble mongers really believe that 2018 is just like 2012 or 2013?

    But the important matter is not what these propagandists believe, but that the public is informed about the propaganda. Unfortunately, the propaganda worked from 2013 to 2018. But is looks like propaganda is losing its grip on buyers and sellers alike, and many buyers are refusing to pay what the supply demands. And prices are falling. The propaganda created self-fulfilling momentum for 6 years. No more.

    (*) 258.957978645141/130.03226 == 1.99149025515008

  11. 511
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 508 -” It is somewhat astounding for an informed person to read the bizarre contortions that the REIC propaganda department (represented by whatsmyname, uwp) is twisting themselves into,”

    Whatever the price; houses during this last year were bought in numbers close to, and some months exceeding, the median over the last 19 years. My only comment was “what kind of strike is that?” Which I see you are not answering. Are you unacquainted with the English language word, “strike”? Or are you flailing in a most pathetic way?

  12. 512
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 508:

    The propaganda created self-fulfilling momentum for 6 years. No more.

    I don’t know about the last 6 years, but 2018 purchases matched or exceeded purchases in each of 2000, 2001, 2002. Were those years of buyer’s strikes also? How about 2012? And 2013? Please share even the lamest explanation.

  13. 513
    Blurtman says:

    By whatsmyname @ 502:

    RE: Blurtman @ 491 – Perhaps the senators that confirmed Paulson in 2006 were working without knowledge of the 2016 DOJ settlement, which, after all, did not occur until 10 years later.

    Quite plausible, but as they now know, what have they said or done about having confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, the former CEO of an investment bank that committed massive financial fraud under his watch? For example, what safeguards have they instituted to prevent this from happening again? Anyone apologize at least? Why have they institutionalized a lack of accountability?

  14. 514

    RE: Justme @ 508

    Why are you calling them “the REIC”? The real REIC is not allowed to use fake names when speaking of real estate in public. Real Estate Agents are bound by license law which requires them to use their real, licensed, names when speaking of real estate.

    Call them Bulls…but then most home owners are bulls and most would be home owners are Bears. It’s only common sense.

    But REIC? Where are you getting that info? You can call me that. You can call Kary that. But if an agent is talking about real estate and not using their real name, well that’s a pretty big accusation.

  15. 515
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 512

    Aww Ardell. REIC is much more inclusive and diverse than just brokers and salespeople. Start by adding in the landlords, the developers, the mortgage brokers, the petit rentiers, the appraisers, the inspectors, the title insurers, the escrow officers (sorry S-Crow), the hucksters, the schysters, the mortgage bundlers, ……the list goes on and on. Don’t nobody feel left out.

    Just found my old list, pardon me if I repeat myself:

    all kinds of greedsters, buyers, banksters, brokers, builders, developers, realtors, crooks, central bankers, lenders, flippers, fraudsters, FOMOs, wall-streeters, top 0.1-percenters, swindlers, enablers, owners, pushers, profiteers, landlords, appraisers, propagandists, front-runners and margin-skimmers.

    If that isn’t a complete list, it will have to do until the real complete list gets here.

  16. 516
    Ardell says:

    RE: Justme @ 513

    Lions and tigers and bears…oh my. Thanks for explaining that the only charlatan here is you. Good to know.

  17. 517
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell @ 514

    Awww Ardell, I thought you were being nice! I’m being nice, not placing all the blame on the realtors. By the way, not every person and very occupation within the REIC are equally culpable. You can’t really blame home inspectors or escrow officers and title officers for the bubble. But they are part of the industry.

  18. 518
    sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 513 – Some stood by while that packed train passed for a few years. It has been unreal.
    Hucksters selling tickets to debt bombs that ruined lives. REIC carnival barkers yelling at the FOMO crowd to “Buy NOW! Sign here! Forget the inspection! You’ll be priced out! Multiple offers! HURRY!” All the while, knowing they were fooling the gullible FOMO crowd into indebtedness and misery of signing for a hideously overpriced moss pit or air box as the Everything Bubble blew bigger and bigger.
    Goldman vampire squids were in the engine, pushing the pedal to the metal in a rush to grab all the FOMO money they could as they continued to leap onto the runaway FED train, like flying fish ready to fry. The REIC fraudsters were on board serving mountains of misery and heartache, as the FOMOs smiled and signed their lives away. Signatures suddenly turned into shackles and chains of debt! What is happening? The FOMOs looked around. Their dreams and excitement were turning into nightmares. Some of the REIC magic dust sprouted balloons and more heavy interest rates that became so heavy, it caused some of the FOMOs to collapse. They were tossed into the pit of bankruptcy by the laughing squids.
    Some of the people decided to watch warily from the sidelines as the FOMOs rushed and leaped on the packed the crazy train. We yelled warnings, trying to get them not to jump on. “It’s not REAL! This won’t last! It’s the same tricks the vampire squids played on us the last time! STOP!” We tried.
    Now, the crazy FED train is crashing once again. Only it’s going toward the cliff. The squids are abandoning the train, with their slimy arms holding bags of FOMO money. This time, there is no rescue team. This will be a massive train wreck.

  19. 519
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 507
    I knew less in 2013/2014 than I know now. The more I learn, the more humble I become. It should have been pretty obvious that 2013/2014 was still recovery and the best time to invest. If I get another chance to hit it big, I will make more informed decisions and hopefully retire early.

    Thanks for pointing that out though. It’s good for me to reflect on my journey.

  20. 520
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 513 – Cool. Did you also find your list of what constitutes a buyers strike? I mean, you know, beyond being approximately seven to ten out of every nineteen years?

  21. 521
    whatsmyname says:

    By Blurtman @ 511:

    By whatsmyname @ 502:

    RE: Blurtman @ 491 – Perhaps the senators that confirmed Paulson in 2006 were working without knowledge of the 2016 DOJ settlement, which, after all, did not occur until 10 years later.

    Quite plausible, but as they now know, what have they said or done about having confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, the former CEO of an investment bank that committed massive financial fraud under his watch? For example, what safeguards have they instituted to prevent this from happening again? Anyone apologize at least? Why have they institutionalized a lack of accountability?

    Are you asking if the senate hasn’t apologized for what a previous senate did 10-13 years earlier? Do you have any concrete ideas for safeguarding confirmations from things that will not be known until sometime in the future? What is there to be done about an appointment that ended 9 years ago?

  22. 522
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell @ 514

    Ardell I am not sure why you even bother to engage with JustMe/sfrz. This is just an old dude who has some kind of weird ideological axe to grind. He is not in the market or the industry. Listening to him is like listening to a priest dispense advise on sex. Listening to him is like paying attention to a guy who thinks he knows the stock market because he has done well in his sim account.

    Trolls will do anything for attention because they die off when they are ignored.

  23. 523
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 520
    Justme/sfrz are newer to this site and have some learning to do. I suggest they do more reading of actual theory and less time reading media. I was very confused at one point too and I can understand their frustration. This site is great for a lot of things, but learning about asset bubbles isn’t one of them.

  24. 524
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 520 – The trolls are the specuvestors, flippers and REIC.
    As The Tim states:
    “…That’s what Seattle Bubble is for: providing a resource where regular people can assess the local housing market on their own.

    Seattle Bubble promotes responsible home ownership by fighting ignorance, myths, and stereotypes. If you are a real estate agent that depends a steady flow of naïve home buyers or sellers, you probably won’t enjoy this site. “

  25. 525
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 521 – I’ve been here for years. I’ve bought and sold more homes than you. Don’t break your arm smacking your own back.

  26. 526
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 523
    Why would it matter how many homes I bought and sold? Are you a real estate agent sfrz?

    My goal is passive income and not so much buying and selling houses.

  27. 527
    Justme says:

    RE: sfrz @ 516

    It reads like a crime story … or some Dickensian dystopia. Not too far off. Here is my version.

    It was the night after Christmas. All was still.
    Not a buyer was stirring, not even in the moss.
    The REIC was nestled all smug in their beds,
    while visions of sugar-plum profits danced in their heads.
    When out of their keyboards
    there arose such a clatter
    The topic of no bubble
    was what was the matter
    All prancing and pawing and propaganda
    while down the chimney came each commission.
    A lump of coal the buyer was left with,
    Happy Christmas to all, even though you lost it.

  28. 528
    Blurtman says:

    By whatsmyname @ 519:

    By Blurtman @ 511:

    By whatsmyname @ 502:

    RE: Blurtman @ 491 – Perhaps the senators that confirmed Paulson in 2006 were working without knowledge of the 2016 DOJ settlement, which, after all, did not occur until 10 years later.

    Quite plausible, but as they now know, what have they said or done about having confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, the former CEO of an investment bank that committed massive financial fraud under his watch? For example, what safeguards have they instituted to prevent this from happening again? Anyone apologize at least? Why have they institutionalized a lack of accountability?

    Are you asking if the senate hasn’t apologized for what a previous senate did 10-13 years earlier? Do you have any concrete ideas for safeguarding confirmations from things that will not be known until sometime in the future? What is there to be done about an appointment that ended 9 years ago?

    You aren’t suggesting that the USG do nothing to rectify errors they have made in the past? Simply admitting that they confirmed a criminal to head up a major cabinet position, who then acted to bail out his former criminal employer., would be a step forward. Or how about a symbolic recision of the appointment?

  29. 529
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 524 – My goal is providing a home for my family, and not handing over my money to the used house salespeople.
    I also had the passive income when I was a landlord. It was a major pain, like owning a boat. Multiple everything problems. roofs, plumbing and electric systems; taxes, insuring. Lessons were learned. I won’t do that again.
    You do you.

  30. 530
    sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 525 – hahaha! This is rich!

  31. 531

    RE: Erik @ 517
    Hey Erik

    I hope you make some big deals fast…then we can trade “early” retirement planning secrets applied to Real Estate. Hades, even after you retire you could dabble as a land baron, like I do…but I’m much more small scale than you right now [but I sure like the free time], King of the Flippers….LOL….Erik, Seattle’s capitalistic thinking Trump ;-)

    I got another weekly offer to buy up my Kansas City Home with $CASH$…Stephanie from Missouri wants my house….LOL…the fun goes on and on…meanwhile, my Kent Modular evidently got too expensive ($300K) for bank mortgage risk IMO, but like Ardell said, any home can be sold with $CASH$ and a lower price…but why sell? I’m a retired lucky devil [hey my hair isn’t silver yet…LOL] cruisin’ in his flashy red Charger…Life is great…no debt.

  32. 532
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 522 – IMO, the young people here waiting to buy a home are being short-sighted at some point. If you are young and the house tanks in value or you lose your job and have to declare bankruptcy (pick any disastrous reason – it doesn’t matter) you have a long enough time to recover. But let’s assume you don’t go bankrupt but the house goes down in value. What are replacement values for that house from the ground up? Similar or more than the cost to buy? Then you will be fine.

    Young people are FOOLISH to plan a wait until they are mid-40s or 50s to make major life moves. The value of the time someone has in their 20s is HUGE HUGE HUGE – if they are patient.

    LOTS of things can change the length of your actual working life and 50% of people are out of the workforce by age 60. In other words, WAITING TOO LONG to live your life is self-defeating.

    You do realize that The Tim bought a house at prices he ‘seemed’ to think were still in ‘bubble’ territory? Or at least that is what I remember as a lurker on here long ago.

    FYI: I think ‘The Tim’s” bubble priced house has risen in value quite handily since that time.

    I’m about to buy a house in Florida and have been taking pics of the process. Florida houses are built like tanks. The walls are CMU with pre-engineered lintels and rebar running up from the PIP slab all the way up. Then a matrix of concrete is poured all the way down from the top at each rebar location also locking in the lintels. The roof trusses are strapped about every 17 inches or so. They then underlay the roof with a 6-month exposure polymer fabric and put on a 110 mph architectural ASR.

    The house is being built for $175/sf including land (tract house). The n’hood backs up to water on all sides and is a stone’s throw from Disney World. Gas prices in Florida are $1.96/gallon as of yesterday in Orlando.

    Downside of Florida: Drivers in Orlando are MUCH MUCH worse than Seattle.

  33. 533

    About 90% of the Furloughed Federal Workers are Open Border Party (OBP) Supporters

    How many in the Seattle area out of 590,000 government workers in Wash St per BLS data today? My estimate is about 300-400K. With Hanford and Bremerton using about 30% of this total. All in all, a lot of these folks live pay check to pay check:

    http://www.philly.com/jobs/labor/i-see-no-way-out-living-paycheck-paycheck-is-disturbingly-common-20181228.html

    How many homes with mortgages are penniless fed workers buying now? I see more Seattle area foreclosures Erik if this shutdown goes on….it is what it is. Sorry OBP you’re feeling the brunt of the open border punishments by Trump. But good gosh you fed workers can’t even pay your IRS taxes [largest delinquent group is fed], let alone balance a checkbook…and I should trust your government competence? LOL

  34. 534
    Blurtman says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 519 – Or how about indicting him and putting him on trial? The Schneiderman settlement allows that. He can take the Enron defense – that he didn’t know, didn’t see – but that didn’t seem to work for those criminals.

    “The settlement comprises a $2.385 billion civil penalty and $1.8 billion in other relief, including funds for homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their property, as well as distressed borrowers. It also preserves the government’s ability to bring criminal charges against Goldman and does not release any individuals from potential criminal or civil liability, the Justice Department said.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-mbs-settlement/goldman-sachs-to-pay-5-billion-in-u-s-justice-dept-mortgage-bond-pact-idUSKCN0X81TI

  35. 535

    RE: David @ 529
    Tacoma Drivers Suck Too

    They cut you off and cut through lanes like a Fast ‘n Furious movie…on the flip side, they drive like lambs in Kansas City, Hades the freeways are half empty in KC all the time…

  36. 536

    RE: Blurtman @ 531
    They Invented a Phrase for the Hypocrisy

    “Too Big to Fall”….LOL…

  37. 537
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 529

    There you have it, folks. Bubble-monger David in Seattle thinks all renters ought to buy a house in Seattle right now, but is he buying one himself at the current prices? Hell, no, he is buying in Florida, for $175/ft2, and that price is including the land. At that sort of price, I would buy in Seattle, too.

    But David keeps spouting the you-should-buy-in -Seattle-now propaganda. Even in this very same post. This shows you exactly how much you should trust these hucksters and their self-serving advice.

  38. 538
    ess says:

    RE: David @ 529

    We considered Florida as a possible place to resettle and retire, until I noticed my wife was having trouble with the heat and humidity – when we were there in January for a cruise. Well – if January is a problem – than August will be impossible.

    Too bad – years ago – outside of the greater Miami area – housing was inexpensive and some very nice areas. We particularly liked the west coast.

    Investing the max for retirement in one’s 20s is so much more productive than waiting until one is in their late 30s or 40s. The magic of time and compounding. But most of those in their 20s don’t worry about retirement – more important to have the latest electronic gadgets with their expensive plans and purchase two cups a day of the most expensive Starbucks products available.

  39. 539

    RE: David @ 529

    “Florida houses are built like tanks. The walls are CMU with pre-engineered lintels and rebar running up from the PIP slab all the way up.”

    I built a house there in 1997 in Lake Mary on the Longwood side. I had to use concrete block construction due to wood rot and wood destroying insect issues. That same builder built my house in Granite Bay CA and started building here about ten years ago, using wood frame, as concrete block construction is not recommended on the West Coast due to earthquake issues.

    In Florida the block homes are standard and wood frame homes are scarce and hard to sell. I recall a builder coming down from The Northeast who put up a wood frame development and the termites were eating the houses between the exterior siding and interior drywall without discovery until the walls started falling down.

    But then, they have sinkholes. Waking up to a “sunken living room” is not uncommon.

    There is no one best way to build a house that suits all areas.

    Best of luck to you in Florida. I loved it there.

  40. 540
    Justpassinthru says:

    RE: David @ 529

    The problem with this advice is simple. Many of us 20 something’s DID buy a house in 2005-2008. We listened to the propoganda and got in before we were “priced out forever”. We stretched and overburdened our budgets. Put every last dime we saved into the house. We can always sell it right if it becomes too much? Still come out ahead because housing ALWAYS appreciates. Just buy a house, we were told!! Realtors, media, co-workers and the public all agreed. Get in before you are priced out forever. Well, as you know we got our a$$es handed to us. Layoffs, downsizing, etc. Losing or down-sizing one job in a 2 person income is all it takes for a few months and game over. But what about this beautiful always appreciating house, we just bought??? Oh, right. Can’t sell the house now, upside down by at least $100k and climbing, so what did we do? We tried to short sale, and get out. Some got lucky and could do this. Others had to hand in keys and walk away due to banks not helping or caring. The banks were too overburdened. Very few could stick it out and spent the rest of their 20’s and 30’s in a house they outgrew and resented. It’s been over 10 years and those that were forced to walk away are collectively credit worthy again, but will we make the same mistakes? 1000x no. I would never recommend a 20 something buy a house right now with things so volatile. That is completely irresponsible advice. If I could tell a 20 or 30 something what to do now after living what I and soooo many others lived??? Pay off ALL of your debt. Cars, student loans, credit cards. Yep, all of it. Dave Ramsey style. If you want to live in one of the most expensive places, you will need the room in your budget. Then, save 6 months of living expenses first before purchasing. That is your emergency (oh no! We just lost a job! The roof needs repairs! Faucet broke! ) fund and you will need it Then put down at least 10%- 20% on the home, separate from your 6 month emergency fund. Finally, do not buy a home right now if you can’t sit in that exact home for 10 years and live through market fluctuations. Don’t get sucked into FOMO. There will always be homes to buy. Always. Up market or down market someone is always selling. Learn from this former 20 something who is older and wiser. Someone who is now shopping much smarter in their 40’s and won’t get sucked into the FOMO chatter. Now is the time to save $, pay off all debt and watch the market. When you feel you could easily pay the high mortgage even through a layoff and be ok, then that is the time to buy. Sound overly safe?? Not really if you talk to any Gen X or Gen Y that lived through those times. I’m just passin through but had to give my .02 and hopefully save another 20 something from a horribly painful mistake. It’s getting easier to buy a home. There is a reason for that. Be smart with your home shopping.

  41. 541
    sfrz says:

    RE: ess @ 535 – Or paying down their Fed bubble student loans. The American dream of owning a SFH for the recent grad is in their rear view mirror. It’s unattainable with their massive student loan debt.

    I HATE Florida. It’s a nasty jungle, with bugs the size of a Volkswagen. You have to spray cancer causing insecticides into/onto the home monthly or have them injected into the foundation. The heat/humidity is unbearable, especially for the elderly. In central Florida, depending on the way the wind blows, you have to race to close your doors as you enter or exit in order to keep the monster mosquitoes from invading. Former pet pythons are reproducing at break-neck pace, gators eat your pets, and factory farm run off is contaminating the delicate water shed. Then, to top off that shyte salad, you get to enjoy the hurricane de jour.
    Enjoy that new jungle love David!

  42. 542

    RE: Deerhawke @ 520

    It was helpful to learn that “the REIC” arrows were not aimed at only the true REIC, of which I am a member. I was glad to learn that most everyone on the site was included in the “REIC” digs and I wasn’t being singled out. :)

  43. 543
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 528
    You did it right swe. You have a stable retirement income that you can use to keep investing. That’s great!

    My investments are as meager as you can get, condos in Seattle. My plan is to buy, rent, and sell until I own 5 without a mortgage.

    I went to the snohomish county auction on Friday. I had an opportunity for a good deal, but there were 7 bidders on the property I wanted. The bid got too high, so I bowed out.

  44. 544
    Notme says:

    Hey buy in Seattle!
    I’m retiring to Florida
    you get the moss bubble

    -a bubble-monger-rare-moment-of-truth bubble haiku

  45. 545
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 537 – Doctors send people to Florida FOR the weather. And I still see the heat as better than the damp cold of Seattle. People in Seattle talk a big game about being outdoorsy in all conditions, but few people, I have seen, are actually out in the rain and cold that goes on for 6 months. Florida is an all-season place – huge advantage.

    Also, I still own a home in Seattle that is twice as expensive as this new house. HOWEVER, you can certainly buy MUCH more expensive houses just down the street from this new FL house. I’m just buying the cheapest house and will ADD the more expensive design elements myself.

    The fact that Seattle is twice as expensive for new does not mean that Seattle is too expensive. You can go other places and buy even cheaper than what I am buying (but not hugely less). Local conditions matter.

    Paid more for my house in Seattle as well.

    Which house do I expect to be a better return on investment over the next 10 years?
    1) Florida = nope
    2) Seattle = yes

  46. 546
    David White says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 536:

    RE: David @ 529

    “Florida houses are built like tanks. The walls are CMU with pre-engineered lintels and rebar running up from the PIP slab all the way up.”

    I built a house there in 1997 in Lake Mary on the Longwood side. I had to use concrete block construction due to wood rot and wood destroying insect issues. That same builder built my house in Granite Bay CA and started building here about ten years ago, using wood frame, as concrete block construction is not recommended on the West Coast due to earthquake issues.

    In Florida the block homes are standard and wood frame homes are scarce and hard to sell. I recall a builder coming down from The Northeast who put up a wood frame development and the termites were eating the houses between the exterior siding and interior drywall without discovery until the walls started falling down.

    But then, they have sinkholes. Waking up to a “sunken living room” is not uncommon.

    There is no one best way to build a house that suits all areas.

    Best of luck to you in Florida. I loved it there.

    There are NOT giant bugs in Florida. Cockroaches for sure but they are outside bugs that come inside occsionally. Little roaches exist for sure which is what I hate. To eliminate roach problems – LET NO FREE MOISTURE LINGER INSIDE THE ENVELOPE.

  47. 547
    David says:

    By Notme @ 540:

    Hey buy in Seattle!
    I’m retiring to Florida
    you get the moss bubble

    -a bubble-monger-rare-moment-of-truth bubble haiku

    These are the 8 fastest growing states last year:

    Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Florida, Washington, Colorado and Texas.

    Hate to break it to you, but unless the cost to build the house OR the demand curve declines systemically then housing prices in Seattle are going up. In reality, building cost and population are going up in Seattle.

    The principal (probably only reason) for any slow down is the FED raising interest rates. While I agree with Trump, if people think the Fed will lower rates then that creates uncertainty – and lessens demand. Hopefully the Fed just holds steady.

  48. 548
    Sfrz says:

    RE: David White @ 542 – I guess I was dreaming when that giant palmetto bug tank walked across the floor at the rental car agency in Tampa. The receptionist screamed and I asked her when she got used to seeing these monsters. She stated that you don’t ever get used to it. That’s why the scream. But… I guess that wasn’t real.
    Maybe I was dreaming when green lizards kept appearing inside the beach home in Sarasota. Maybe my uncle was tripping when he yelled to hurry and close the door in Orlando so the monsters don’t get in to suck your blood.
    Okay. So you say it. It must be true. Enjoy the swamp.

  49. 549
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 541

    More BS from David. He is going to rent out the Florida house and be a landlord there (some old posts mentioned looking for rentals in Florida). So why is he buying a rental investment in Florida and not Seattle? Seattle will appreciate more, he claims. But David is simply full of propaganda. Otherwise, if he really believed the stuff he is spouting, he would have bought a rental house in Seattle.

  50. 550

    RE: David White @ 542

    I am not the one who talked about the giant bugs. I assumed that person was talking about Palmetto bugs. Having a cat helps with those.

    But if you are saying they are built with block rather than wood because of better building practices rather than the wood destroying insect problem, you are wrong. I lived there. I sold real estate there and in the area you are talking about near Orlando. It IS about the bugs and the continuous bug season with no freeze off.

    There are termites in the Northeast, but they have a short season. In Florida you can’t build your house of sticks and yes, it is because of termites both subterranean and airborne varieties. Block construction is the norm for that reason and avoided here due to earthquake activity being expected.

    I have seen a few block homes in North Seattle. People here don’t like them and they are not considered to be better.

  51. 551
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 526
    You failed, learned lessons, and quit on real estate investing. I failed, learned lessons, and reinvented my strategy of real estate investing. That’s the small difference that made a huge difference on our results. If at first you don’t succeed, then try again.

  52. 552
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 547 – If you’ve done well with Real Estate investing over the past several years, and therefore assume your strategy is good, I’d be a bit cautious about that.

    It’s a little like a person saying that they’ve done well in the stock market over the last several years, therefore they must be really good at investing in stocks.

  53. 553
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 548
    You could be right. The story isn’t over.

  54. 554
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 549 – Yeah, throughout all of the ups and downs of markets, it’s never really over until one sells.

    And I realize in my comment I might sound like a bit of a jerk. Not my intention. Just trying to keep perspective, as I also attempt to do with myself(try to keep myself honest).

    Cheers.

  55. 555
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 546

    The reason people build with CMU (concrete masonry unit = concrete block) in places like Florida is not only that they are bug resistant. It is that they are so cheap — in part because they can be put up by untrained workers from Latin America who use them in their own construction. They also do OK in a storm or tornado. But they really have no insulating value and so you end up running the air conditioner constantly.

    A much better idea from the perspective of energy efficiency and storm resistance is Insulated Concrete Forms (ICF). Yes a bit more expensive, but far, far more energy efficient. Anything built with ICFs and a lot of steel strapping to hold the roof in place is the real tank. In fact, now people in coastal communities are using steel roof rafter systems that weld to the rebar in the walls.

  56. 556
    Matt P says:

    I grew up in Florida. There is not weather for activities year round unless you like skin cancer. It’s also too hot and humid to stay out long in certain parts of Florida during the Summer apex and the nights are still nasty and sticky and mosquito filled. Weather is mucher nicer in the PNW.

    Also, there is no way to keep out the cockroaches without professional treatment no matter how clean you are. The sugar ants get in whether you spray or not. I found that cinnamon sprinkled across their entry point would stop them though. I haven’t seen any cockroaches since I moved here.

  57. 557
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 550
    You don’t seem like a jerk. The good thing about renting Seattle condos is that if I don’t like the price I can sell the condo for, it’s very simple to continue renting the condo out until I can get the price I want. I only plan to sell something so I can pay off other condos and get positive cash flow. If I had positive cash flow to start, I’d probably just sit back and wait until the renter paid the condo off while collecting money every month. In the Seattle condo world, it seems negative cash flow is inevitable, so it makes sense to play the shell game and sell to pay others off.

    I’d love to get multi family buildings that cash flow, but I’m not there yet. I’m not really sure how to do that yet. I want a new building in a hot area. Perhaps I’ll need to wait for the market to crash again?

  58. 558

    RE: Deerhawke @ 551

    It’s actually cheaper and quicker there to use wood than concrete block. I googled it to check that before saying it from my recollection. I don’t like to use links here as it sends comments to moderation, but there are many links all saying wood construction in Florida is cheaper and there is some cutoff point in the state where they switch to wood when they can.

    It’s the termites. They will eat you out of house and home if you don’t build it with something they can’t chew on. More so in some parts of Florida than others, but David is in the same part that I was. In noticed it before when he said he was touring Windermere in the Orlando area.

  59. 559
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/tech-bubble-bursting-stock-market.amp.html

    Brilliant piece. Puts the US tech boom of the 10s in historical perspective, revealing what it really is: a giant bubble driven by mania.

  60. 560
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 553 – As you mentioned, as a landlord in Seattle monthly cash flow is most likely negative. Therefore a landlord must count on escalating prices to provide the return on investment. So if prices are flat or declining, it seems like a money losing proposition.

  61. 561
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 556
    I have to admit, you are correct. I’m a bit of an optimist.

  62. 562
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 554

    Honestly I have never seen the appeal of Florida. You go to the Miami area and find that everybody’s bube and noni from Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island are all there. Oh and all of North Jersey. The outer borough accent is overwhelming. (“Haayya hon, hawaaya. Commea and Gimmeya hug.”)

    Then you have the bugs, the reptiles, the heat and the humidity. And the pure artificiality of everything that has been hacked out of the jungle.

    But the best part is the destruction from the hurricanes, tropical storms, etc. And have you ever noticed that the people in Florida all believe that global warming is not real? And that is why Bubi and Noni are truly stunned and offended when the waves come crashing through their picture window.

    The humor of Carl Hiassen and Dave Barry really sums it up. Pretty odd place. I am sure it was beautiful once, not that long ago.

  63. 563

    RE: Deerhawke @ 558

    Haha! Obviously, you have never heard me speak.

  64. 564

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 554
    Speaking of Land Barons

    My dad bought land all over the country, including Florida. My sister flew down there around 2005 when my dad died in 1996 to pay the like $2000+ owed on property tax to get the land deed transferred. The back taxes were more than the land was worth, same conundrum in Texas, low delinquent back taxes from 1996 worth more than the land today. I sent the paper work to her and she flew down there….LOL, I’m glad it wasn’t me ;-)

    The land was never willed to my sister or I either; it actually belongs to his deceased 2nd wive’s kids…that’s brings up another retirement question with $700K Seattle Homes….do really want to marry [or re-marry] and die and cut off your own bloodline for inheritance? No wonder we’re 80% single income owners in Seattle, we fear death, probate and divorce more here.

  65. 565

    RE: Erik @ 557
    The Power of Positive Thinking is Real Erik

    The author of positive thinking, Dr. Peale and later Dr. Schuller were both American pastors, Dr. Peale was Trump’s family pastor…..no wonder Donald turned billionaire with that family upbringing. Even atheists admit positive thinking works.

    Contrast that to Obama’s family Pastor Wright…apples and oranges folks:

    https://100percentfedup.com/watch-obamas-pastor-spews-anti-white-anti-jewish-and-anti-capitalist-speech-jesus-was-palestinian-video/

    You go Capitalist Erik and pile up $CASH$ for retirement you plan on finding….someone else will grab it up if the Eriks of the world don’t see it first.

  66. 566

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 555
    Lying and Greed Along the Way Too

    Virus Software Protection Money to the Mob.

    Updates and new versions S/W completely useless or worse yet “won’t work right” or loaded with malware [adobe].

    IPhones no one will buy anymore.

    Google and Facebook political espionage and collusion with China/Russia on limiting free speech.

    MSFT replacing NW high school kids with “less skilled” foreigners.

    MSFT false allegations they need STEM workers to get H-1B OVERPOPULATION slave wages, etc, etc…

    High Tech ain’t my dad’s Oldsmobile LOL

  67. 567

    RE: Deerhawke @ 551
    Yes Deer Hawk I Push For More Concrete in Wet Seattle Too, Especially Wood Decks That Rot

    Seattle has its bug problems too, its a constant fight for me. I see swarms of small ants in my flower beds weeding and know, when ya see swarms of bugs, there’s almost certain rotted wood [probably lumber on my house] that needs sealing. BTW, the toxic fumes from the adhesive gun kill the bugs too, two birds with one stone ;-)

  68. 568
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    As always, click on the link, then click once more for enlarged view. The graphs compare 2018-versus-2017 inventory on an hourly basis.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-29
    https://imgur.com/a/trWNnya

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-29
    https://imgur.com/a/oa70UqB

    Year 2018 KC SFH active inventory outnumbers year 2017 by a ratio that has been above 1X since mid-March, and has been on a upward trend all year long. In week 47, the ratio passed 2.0X for the first time, after a late-season surge. This week (week 52), the ratio is about 2.3X, nearly same as last week.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-29
    https://imgur.com/a/DaZUIMU

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-29
    https://imgur.com/a/s5Fyiq5

    The trend is continual and upward. For KC Condo inventory, the ratio 2018/2017 also reached a new yearly high this week, ending the week at a staggering 4.5X value (aligned by date). The KC Condo active inventory looks almost parabolic the last several weeks, but at the same time the noise level is elevated. As they old saying goes, condo prices are the last to rise and the first to fall.

    There remains a notably elevated crowd of sellers at the exits of the KC housing market, the largest crowd of any of the years 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018. One has to go back to the bubble-bottom of 2011 to find a larger set of active listings in the same week of the year. It is also notable that sellers are taking the holidays off to a much lesser degree than in 2017.

    It has been about 6 months since I posted the first weekend inventory update. Today is the last update for 2018. What a change the last 6-9 months have brought to the Seattle housing market, both in term of prices dropping and the supply increasing.

    Reader alert: Bubble-mongers do not like what these graphs say. The monger reactions vary from posting a bunch of distractions and mis-directions, to mis-characterization of the graphs themselves, and what they say. Please examine each graph yourself, it is worth the time.

  69. 569
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 561
    Robert Kiyosaki makes the point that relying on earned income is not a safe strategy because if you lose your job you don’t have an income source. I’d like passive income to equal to my earned income so if I lose my job, I won’t really care that much.

    I have friends that are engineering contractors that don’t care that much if they get laid off. Their investments produce enough income to let them maintain their lifestyle. Their earned income is used for vacations or more investments.

  70. 570
    David says:

    By Deerhawke @ 558:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 554

    Honestly I have never seen the appeal of Florida. You go to the Miami area and find that everybody’s bube and noni from Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island are all there. Oh and all of North Jersey. The outer borough accent is overwhelming. (“Haayya hon, hawaaya. Commea and Gimmeya hug.”)

    Then you have the bugs, the reptiles, the heat and the humidity. And the pure artificiality of everything that has been hacked out of the jungle.

    But the best part is the destruction from the hurricanes, tropical storms, etc. And have you ever noticed that the people in Florida all believe that global warming is not real? And that is why Bubi and Noni are truly stunned and offended when the waves come crashing through their picture window.

    The humor of Carl Hiassen and Dave Barry really sums it up. Pretty odd place. I am sure it was beautiful once, not that long ago.

    Reptiles are a hugely exaggerated myth about Florida. Can you spot them here? Yes, if you go looking. How big are they? Almost all are pretty small and run away/swim from you.

    I’ve noticed that almost all of the people attacked by Alligators were ‘fishing’ and didn’t know it. Ergo, they had a very small dog on a fishing line out in front of them. The Alligator goes after the small dog and the owner tries to save the dog. Bad idea.

    I would NOT live in Miami. New Yawkers are everywhere in Florida. Anything to get away from the leftist hellhole. But Seattle is halfway there now too.

    One of the builders in Florida tried to sell me a ‘designer’ house and put insulating foam in the CMU spaces for ~$4k. I asked how that would create a thermal break? ‘Thermal what’ was the answer. I’m going to be putting in a whole house ventilating dehumidifier by Ultraire after closing. And adding some serious 4″ thick foil backed foam-board to seal the attic but allow vapor to still exit the roof vents. Plan to use roof deck screws to fasten to the trusses and create a ‘sort of’ plenum a the roof ridge to allow moisture to travel across the trusses at the apex of the roofline.

    Alternatively, I might use a rigid plastic and cover the trusses leaving space behind for air movement up and along the trusses to the roofline. Then over spraying with closed-cell foam.

    I like the idea of the foil backed foam boards because you can remove them for any later repairs or changes.

  71. 571
    David says:

    Global warming is BullS…

    Insurance companies have not stopped insuring properties on the coasts. Banks have not stopped lending to projects on the coasts – WORLDWIDE. Why? Because they know it is BS.

    Seattle was once tropical. We really need to fight global cooling.

  72. 572
    David White says:

    I’ve also notice the Climate Change Alarmists also believe marijuana cures everything and does not diminish intelligence, cause emotional problems. effect male sperm and cause your grandkids to be slugs.

  73. 573
    David says:

    I’ve also notice the Climate Change Alarmists also believe marijuana cures everything and does not diminish intelligence, cause emotional problems. effect male sperm and cause your grandkids to be slugs.

  74. 574
    Realistic says:

    RE: Justme @
    Your graphs are extremely helpful and telling! Thanks so much for taking the time to prepare and post them. Your efforts are greatly appreciated. Just one suggestion – it would be great if the vertical scale in all your charts started with 0 for consistency and accuracy. This is especially true for the SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018. The scale starts at 1000 which makes the visual impression that in 2017 there was almost no inventory in winter.

  75. 575
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ :

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    One has to go back to the bubble-bottom of 2011 to find a larger set of active listings in the same week of the year.

    True that. In fact if you do go to the same week of 2011, you will find the set of active listings were not merely larger than now – they were double.

    Of course, you’d have to go all the way back to ancient 2008 to find active listings in this week at triple what they are now.

    ————
    Note to Justme: I knew that for the sake of honest presentation, you would want full disclosure. You’re welcome.

  76. 576
    Joe says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 570

    When was the last time Case Shiller prices dropped 4% in four months?

    I’d say the Seattle market is a falling knife right now and it doesn’t matter what happened in 2011 or 2008.

  77. 577
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 571 – The pending home sales index also points to further price decline. Check out the first chart –

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230676-u-s-housing-market-get-uglier-near-future

  78. 578
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 571

    Yup.

    And: A bubble-monger wants to make a big fuss about the inventory halving from 2011 to 2012, but does not want to hear anything about it more than doubling from 2017 to 2018.

  79. 579
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 572

    Yes indeed, I saw that report too. The pending sales count for November is down, and that will translate into lower closed sales counts for December and maybe January as well.

    The original article is here: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/28/us-housing-market-to-get-uglier-in-near-future/

  80. 580
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 578:

    And: A bubble-monger wants to make a big fuss about the inventory halving from 2011 to 2012, but does not want to hear anything about it more than doubling from 2017 to 2018.

    You write 20+ lines with 4 graphs every week to blather about 2017 to 2018; and you are the one to bring up 2011. But one sentence by someone else about the elephant in the 2011 living room that you ironically never disclose is “making a big fuss”. Too funny.

    It is entertaining to call out your poisonous dishonesty, and leave hanging the many simple questions that we both know you can’t answer. That’s different than wanting to blow a bubble.

  81. 581
    sfrz says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 580 – Spewing poison? FOR WHO? This is SEATTLE BUBBLE. NOT SEATTLE INVESTMENT.
    Let me tell you what poison is. Look at the lies and snake oil salesman talk in this article.
    “As an industry, we cringe when people have to waive their inspection or to make earnest money non-refundable,” said George Moorhead, designated broker and owner of Bentley Properties in Bothell.

    Say the words “housing bubble” and Moorhead is likely to crack a smile.

    “It’s funny because people are like, ‘Is there a bubble?’” he said. “We haven’t seen a healthy market in more than 15 years.”

    He cracks a smile because he KNOWS he is a liar. He cracks a smile because he KNOWS the STEALESTATE hucksters didn’t bat an eye when they were blowing phones up to tell FOMOs to waive inspections and throw earnest money down the toilet. Now THAT is poison. Poison kills people,causes them to die, breaks up families, or be cast into pits of debt and bankruptcy.
    This site is to enlighten the average buyer of a home. NOT to be used for investments or pick off vulnerable buyers.

  82. 582
    Eastsider says:

    US home prices have increased much faster than the official inflation (and wage growth) since 2000. In 2000, CS home price index is 100. Today the national index is 206.02 and the Seattle index 247.66. So a home that costs $100,000 in 2000 now costs $206,020 in the US, and $247,660 in Seattle.

    Adjusted for inflation (2000/01=100, 2018/11=149.31) US homes are 38% (206.20/149.31=1.38) more expensive, and Seattle homes 66% (247.66/149.31=1.66) more expensive.

    Given stagnant wage growth in the past 2 decades, the only explanation for the home price increase is the declining 30-year mortgage rates from 2000 to 2018. 30-year mortgage rate in 2000 was 8.24%(!) and today is 4.70%.

  83. 583

    RE: Erik @ 569
    Engineers Live Longer Than Other Professions

    You may have hit on why. Early retirement lengthens your lifespan too…although the Fake News tries to contradict that fact. I’m always more stress free when I’m sitting a growing pile of $CASH$….BTW Erik, even after you get a retirement annuity funding your life style, keep budgeting like you always did if spending it doesn’t matter to you [you may need it for a good disability home later]. I save more than half of my pay BTW, even today ;-)

    I didn’t make the huge contract engineering wages; but invested in a 33 year pension and health care instead….similar paths heading for the same goal…retire ASAP. I’m glad I’m not on that Boeing pension plan, the one they eliminated for new employees about 5-10 years ago…the old retired Boeing engineers should be watching their Boeing pension dwindle smaller and smaller with no young ones paying in…

  84. 584
    Notme says:

    Truth is a poison
    like sunshine to vampires
    bubble-mongers scared

    -a bubble haiku

  85. 585
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 582

    There you go again with the facts. Bubble-mongers hate facts. Fact creates inconvenient questions that cannot be answered out loud in their polite little society.

  86. 586
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: sfrz @ 581

    Poison is hateful lies and ignorance; including those held high for holy, ideological purposes.

    https://youtu.be/D8WmvMCTW_g

  87. 587
    Notme says:

    This ain’t Jeopardy
    if you have an answer, say it
    is that really hard?

    -a bubble haiku

  88. 588
    Blurtman says:

    RE: sfrz @ 581 – You have internet under the 405 overpass!?

  89. 589
    Notme says:

    Sentimental monger
    longs for the (20)11 bust
    oh the good old days

    -a bubble-monger-gets-sentimental-about-the-last-bust haiku

  90. 590
    Notme says:

    I don’t hate renters
    I just want them to be poor
    totally different

    -a lying-bubble-monger-but-not-a-renter-hater haiku

  91. 591
    sfrz says:

    RE: sfrz @ 581 – Article attached here. FULL of poison. Look at the headline. “Trending toward balance.” Talk about word salad, shyster Stealestate huckster talk! Conman, carnival barking snake oil salespitch.
    https://www.heraldnet.com/news/the-once-red-hot-housing-market-is-trending-toward-balance/

  92. 592
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 585:

    RE: Eastsider @ 582

    There you go again with the facts. Bubble-mongers hate facts. Fact creates inconvenient questions that cannot be answered out loud in their polite little society.

    So much hate because I acknowledged your facts, but added a fact you don’t want surfaced. All through this thread, (and others), I have explicitly asked the inconvenient questions, and you have failed to acknowledge, let alone answer.

    This is a small community. How many do you think have failed to see that you are a liar and a coward?

  93. 593
    Justme says:

    Newsflash: Near the depths of the previous bubble bust, in 2011, the KC SFH inventory was twice what it is today.

    What does that mean? It means the current bust is still in its early stages. It’s only been 9 months since the inventory bottomed out, and started piling up, in fact *doubling* in 2018 versus 2017 as the year progressed.

    Some huckster bubble-mongers try to pretend that we-are-not-2011-yet is somehow very significant. That’s just a balderdash diversion tactic. Busts take some time. But it is clear where this bust is going.

    It’s not the bottom of the bust yet, but the current level of bust will do until the real bust gets here.

  94. 594
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 593:

    Newsflash: Near the depths of the previous bubble bust, in 2011, the KC SFH inventory was twice what it is today.

    What does that mean? It means the current bust is still in its early stages.

    In the early stages (2008), the inventory was three times what it is today. But, please, spin away.

  95. 595
    David B. says:

    By Justme @ 503:

    Then why do you bother spouting so much propaganda here? Back in the doghouse with you.

    Because the nurses in the psychiatric ward have a bad habit of leaving the computer at their station logged-in and unattended. At least that’s my theory.

  96. 596
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 581
    You are going to be fooled time and time again if you listen to words instead of reading data and drawing conclusions based on that data. The reason you are getting confused is because you are reading opinions and listening to your emotions instead of reading data and making a conclusion. You need to engage your conscious mind and disengage your subconscious emotions when it comes to investing.

    Here’s the conclusion I draw… King County inventory is low and Demand is average, therefore you can reasonably conclude prices will likely go up year over year or stay flat. If prices go down, it’s just heard mentality and prices will soon go up. When inventory is high and demand is low, it’s time to react in the way you are reacting. That just isn’t the market we are in sfrz. Successful investors don’t rely on opinions to make decisions, they use facts. You are reading opinions and getting worked up about what could happen, which the facts do not support. After this comment, I will quit trying to help you because you keep coming back with the same comments that don’t make sense to me. We can just agree to disagree. I wish you success in your decisions moving forward.

  97. 597
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 593:

    Newsflash: Near the depths of the previous bubble bust, in 2011, the KC SFH inventory was twice what it is today.

    So at the absolute best time to buy a house in recent history, the beginning of a 7 year long massive run in Seattle housing, there was still twice as much inventory as today.

    Would you have said sellers were crowding the exits at that time? Is “sellers crowding the exits” a good sign?

  98. 598
    Realistic says:

    It looks like Redfin increased their listing fee from 1% to 1.5%. I suspect this is to adjust for fewer sales and more effort needed to sell.

  99. 599
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 583
    Pensions are the best thing for American workers. Those that don’t have one should figure out how to get one. This includes me now. Thank you for the reminder to keep my eye on the prize.

  100. 600
    Voight-kampff says:

    I don’t often post much, but I want to give my “boots-on-the-ground” perspective. I sincerely appreciate what the bears are saying. But, after living, and buying, and selling (and drinking!) in downtown Seattle for over 20 years, bears need to realize something.
    Yes, the buyer/seller ratio is shifting. But after living at 4th ave and pike street for nearly 20 years, I can say with certainty, downtown is nothing like it was in 2006-2008. the number of people actually residing and working downtown was paltry from 2006-2008. Fast forward to now, 2018. The amount of people congregating, working, residing downtown is almost unreal compared to 2006-2008.
    I don’t need to read any stats, I live it every day. I know it’s cliche and taboo to say “this time is different”, and I would be fine if things crash again, I love a good sale. I just don’t see it happening.
    “Just me” always talks about a crowd at the exits, but everyday all I see is a crowd in the streets, and It keeps growing.
    Good luck everyone.
    Color me bullish I guess.

  101. 601
    Momentum says:

    I keep hearing people comparing absolute numbers from distant past as a way to rationalize the market up, down, and sideways. Absolute numbers tell you very little. If indeed the number of citizens has dramatically changed, up or down, then those absolute numbers tell you very little. The important numbers are the relative numbers and momentum. The price of a house is relative, not absolute. Relative to wages, savings, cost of money, competition, etc. If the momentum is swinging one way or the other prices will change one way or the other. Not based on the absolute listing numbers or absolute sales numbers, but instead based on relative numbers. If price of money is more than last year and everything else remains constant then prices would be expected to go down. If the inventory is increasing then that tells you there are fewer buyers than sellers and price will go down. It is not about absolute numbers. I”m not saying the prices will go down next year. I”m sayin you are looking at the wrong metrics or more accurately your selection bias produces the cognitive result your subconscious wishes to exist. It is all about momentum and the animal spirits not absolute numbers.

  102. 602
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 597

    >>So at the absolute best time to buy a house in recent history, the beginning of a 7 year long massive run in Seattle housing, there was still twice as much inventory as today.

    You managed to stumble upon a truth here. I’m positively surprised. YES, INDEED, TODAY IS FAR FROM THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. That’s what I have been saying. And now we agree. Is your head exploding with cognitive dissonance yet?

  103. 603
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Momentum @ 601
    +1. The best comment in the last 20 LOL. We will see yoy price decline very soon, between Dec and March. My guess is sooner than later.

  104. 604
    Justme says:

    RE: Realistic @ 574

    I’ll see if I can get the y-axis to start at 0. There is some trickery involved in the programming so not certain I can do it. Glad you found the plots useful.

  105. 605
    Erik says:

    RE: Momentum @ 601
    Hahahahahahah! You should start a think tank with sfrz and Justme. Hahahaha!

  106. 606

    RE: David @ 573
    Medical Marijuana

    Cures epilepsy, glaucoma [blindness], pain relief without narcotics, insomnia without antihistamines, medical relief without high blood pressure and constipation, etc, etc…no, it doesn’t cure cancer, I read the research it was too limited…it doesn’t cause cancer, that’s slamdunk.

    Why is this bad?

  107. 607

    RE: Erik @ 605 – Hey Erik

    The modular fenced 140 unit housing area I live in got no open house listings for 2018, because of anomalous risk asserted by the banks [?]….the property tax and insurance on the used dwelling is more than replacing it new?

    But….an Auburn family really wants my modular house yesterday as an affordable alternative with far less property tax adding to upkeep. I was going to call them back and reiterate the new “Poker Rules” at my housing development, likely only all $CASH$ transactions. I’m sure that would clear the house of almost every soul at the house party, as they left horrified…LOL

    It is what it is. What do I care if I only get $5 for my house [sure would cut my property tax]? I’m likely here until they drag me to a disabled home or I’m dead. Debt free.

  108. 608

    RE: Erik @ 599
    Avoid Boeing Pensions for Engineers

    Even the higher Boeing pensions than engineers going to the Boeing janitors is doomed as the company subcontracts janitorial work and guards out of the Boeing workforce. The Boeing Machinists’ pensions are doomed too, the $12/hr lower tier isn’t paying in anymore. My friend owns his own company and wishes he took my stable lower income safe pension route; he can’t raise his company’s pick line rates for 20 years, depends on his working spouse for “pre-existing conditions” health care for his surgically removed prostrate cancer [he also lived large and saved little]. He built a mother in law apartment house with $CASH$ on his leased land, it has 30 years before the native Indians take it back [so its worthless]. His wife is another working woman with an irregular heart beat medical science can’t fix. Let’s put it this way, heart disease and working women go hand in in hand [my sister is a retired teacher, she has a heart pacer, she goes back for another irregular heart beat heart operation January 20]. The working women can benefit from red wines for cardiovascular prevention, with men, it doesn’t mater; whiskey, beer, in small amounts, its all good for a man’s heart…LOL..ask the AHA if you don’t believe me. I imagine Medical Marijuana is good for cardiovascular health [cancer too] too, especially if it gets you off toxic/carcinogenic prescriptions….more research needed.

    My Milenial daughter has a new/better solution? Just be a stay at home housewife [with working hubby]and live longer? LOL

    Think out of the box Erik, and its never too late to make moves for more $CASH$ and a longer life.

  109. 609
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 607
    That’s good. Another way to do it is if you acted as the bank and had the potential buyer purchase the house from you. Just have a real estate attorney do the leg work and have the buyer sign the documents. The additional income would add to your pension so you can have even more money. Alternatively, you could do a lease-option or just rent it to them if they want to do that. There is a lot of money to be had in this real estate market.

    As you say though, maybe you just want to live there and ride it out until the end. I’m just always looking for ways to expand, but you may not be interested in that.

  110. 610

    They All Wear Those Fluorescent Yellow/Green Seahawk Like Vests

    They are against the CARBON TAXES coming in 2020…i.e., mandatory Chinese solar cells on all our homes soon? Ask our Governor Inslee…he’s planning new CARBON TAXES for you at a theater near you.

    https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/31/climate-change-policy-protests/

    The fun goes on and on…

  111. 611
    Blurtman says:

    UW had to have had the smallest float in the Rose Bowl parade. Embarrassing. Was the money diverted to teacher pensions?

  112. 612

    RE: Erik @ 609
    Happy New Year Erik!

    You’re right, moving more could bring in more $CASH$ opportunities….but it costs money to move and is stressful [plus, by keeping your old home, ya know what ya got, especially if its remodeled right and a building inspector after plastic crack coverups can’t tell the difference?]….so, ya have to weigh the alternatives. Right now, I like seamless $CASH$ deals only with no remodeling/staging listing $COSTS$.

    Life is good…we have so much to be thankful for Erik.

    Just paper work and money transfers…LOL

  113. 613

    RE: Blurtman @ 611
    U of W, the Rich Elite Seattle Land Baron

    Probably bought up another sky scraper in downtown Seattle to house more useless attorneys instead.

  114. 614
    Justme says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 607

    What is that “anomalous risk” asserted by the banks? I had not heard of a bank black-balling an entire condo-style mobile park before, so I am wondering what the specific situation is.

  115. 615

    RE: Erik @ 609
    Hey, I’m Skilled at Contract Negotiation/Law and Took Graduate Business Training to get certified too.

    Great idea Erik, a lease to buy contract….I could write it up myself.

    But like you said, why would I do it? All my retired friends are staying put until they’re dragged out of their Seattle area homes screaming and kicking too….nope, the best retirement investment I made lately was replace the roof, furnace, water source plumbing, reseal the glue board, etc, etc…I know what I got.

  116. 616

    RE: Justme @ 614
    King County Hates Modulars

    To put it simple, it lowers the price of stick homes. If I were a bank, would I discriminate on modular bank loans today? Yes, I would. Risk is risk and if the banking rules aren’t broken, it sure sounds legal to me. The bail outs in the past are gone IMO.

  117. 617

    RE: Justme @ 614

    “No lenders will lend there” is not uncommon and often a good investment opportunity for a cash buyer. You have to thoroughly investigate why it is “cash only” and if the situation is temporary. It is often a good deal, with a quick appreciation when the cash only issue is resolved.
    The lender always reviews the financials of any HOA before lending to a buyer. That the buyer is qualified is not enough.

    The most common cause of “cash only” in any HOA complex is a pending lawsuit against the association. Even a pending lawsuit where the HOA is the Plaintiff can push a building to cash only or high downpayment requirement.

    For single family homes it is usually condition and financing says “Cash or Rehab Loan only”.

    I’m scanning the “cash only” closed transactions this year for some other reasons. One says “…due to high rental occupancy”. You may start seeing more of these as the newer condos have a rental cap so the “no rental cap” complexes are being inundated with offers from investors causing the imbalance. The cutoff is usually more than 50% rentals.

    In any case, every lender reviews all of the details of an HOA after approving the buyer. They also have to approve their collateral for their loan, that being the full complex as to potential issues and condition of a house.

    I’ve never heard it called “black-balling” but yes, there are many cases where a lender won’t lend. Mobile Homes are different as they are usually treated as vehicles and the sources of financing are always limited. Co-ops vs Condos are similar as to limited lenders who will lend.

    It’s not all about the buyer being approved for a loan.

  118. 618

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 617

    Another fairly common reason this year from the listings I read are smaller complexes where one owner owns a majority of the units. The lender always asks if 10% or more are owned by one person, but I’ve never run into the answer being yes. This year there were quite a few cash only due to one owner having purchased the majority of the units and more than 50% of the units. I didn’t see any of those in King County. Mostly Pierce.

  119. 619
    Justme says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 616

    So which one is it, the banks or the county, or some lawsuit (as Ardell mentioned)? Or just that nobody wants to sell? Your answers appear to be changing, can you nail it down?

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 617

    That’s good info, Ardell. Thanks.

  120. 620
    Momentum says:

    The derivative of a function of a real variable measures the sensitivity to change of the function value (output value) with respect to a change in its argument (input value). Derivatives are a fundamental tool of calculus. For example, the derivative of the position of a moving object with respect to time is the object’s velocity: this measures how quickly the position of the object changes when time advances.

  121. 621
    Matt P says:

    Interest rates continue to be funky. 6 month and 5 year are inverted. 12 month and 10 year are are only .06 from being inverted.

  122. 622

    Looking just at 4th Quarter YOY for single family homes in King County, the median price is $650k compared to $630k last year. I don’t include townhomes even if the Jurisdiction they are built in calls them single family. I’m seeing 2,518 Active listings with a median asking price of $774k. As I mentioned about a week ago, some of this is because the Active listings are over-weighted with new construction at the moment because they usually don’t hold things off market during the holidays the way people do with resale homes. At the moment the new homes for sale are at double the % of total homes as the sold in the 4th quarter stats. That raises the median asking price. That should start changing as people bring their homes back on market, and sometimes pretty quickly, by mid January.

    Most of the stats I am working on beyond the above stats are in my service areas of The Eastside and North Seattle with a bit of West Seattle. I started with County-wide for a comparison point. Thought some might like to see these before I press forward with more relevant stats to my everyday work needs.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated by Ardell DellaLoggia and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  123. 623
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 621 – If you remove new homes from the yoy stat, median price might even be lower now compared to a year ago.

  124. 624
    DavidE says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 617:

    RE: Justme @ 614

    “No lenders will lend there” is not uncommon and often a good investment opportunity for a cash buyer. You have to thoroughly investigate why it is “cash only” and if the situation is temporary. It is often a good deal, with a quick appreciation when the cash only issue is resolved.
    The lender always reviews the financials of any HOA before lending to a buyer. That the buyer is qualified is not enough.

    Does anyone have any prior experience with “No lenders will lend there” in an inverted yield environment? This would make sense with the 10 Year yield falling below 1 Year yield (banks would become more skittish to lend since they would be losing money on the long end). So the falling 10 Year recently may not help things after all.

  125. 625

    RE: DavidE @ 623

    The more common response rather than not lending would be to incentivize the short term products. I am not seeing that happening yet. I just checked Wells Fargo online and the 5 and 7 year ARMs have a higher APR than the 30 year and the spread on rate alone is not significant enough to deter from the 30 year. Seems they prefer the 15 year overall.

    Not lending at all only happened during the Credit Crisis for a time on the Jumbo Loans. But shutting down 30 year mortgages altogether for self interest reasons would be against Public Policy directives.

    Since I mentioned here when I saw rates hit 5% with a 5.11 APR, worth noting that two major reductions have happened since then (rather than tiny movements) bringing the rate back down to 4.5% with a 4.617% APR. I don’t usually use the Wells Fargo online for rate info, but it matches what I get first-hand and is the easiest way to check on the spreads.

    I have seen full 1% spreads between the 5 year and 30 year in my time, pushing people toward the shorter guaranteed low rate period and away from the longer rate commitment, but with a full 30 year amortized payment. That would be what you should see happening if banks fear locking in a long rate. But many erred by locking 9% long just before double digit inflation that boosted long rates toward 18%, so history has kind of nixed that idea. Not sure if you can find that online. I’m remembering it from when it happened, pre-internet.

    The 15 year being the preferred product shows the banks are still skittish about being paid and looking for the quicker return more so than the highest rate in the long term. Otherwise the 5 and 7 year products would be more attractive vs the least attractive.

  126. 626
    DavidE says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 624

    Thanks Ardell, this all makes sense.

  127. 627

    RE: Eastsider @ 622

    Not the case. Still shows a gain, albeit a smaller and somewhat negligible gain.

    The % of new in each year was about the same, so taking out the new didn’t change things much. The price of new didn’t impact the Sold median as much as it is influencing the Active median.

    Again this % is usually highest at and near year end just because new stays on market while occupied for sale homes tend to leave and come back.

  128. 628

    RE: Justme @ 619
    I’m on Your Side in General

    And if I were super rich I’d be the bank for the mortgage. But we can’t beat city hall, we don’t have to join them, but sometimes the alternatives aren’t there for us. I have $CASH$ it sounds like you don’t, create some $CASH$ ASAP, change your paradigm. Save.

    Seattle is the laughing stock of America now, we’re #1 worst in COLA increase city.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-ization-american-cities-fear-whats-happened-here/

    Thanks Seattle Times for your neutral article, the Bubbleheads appreciate it.

  129. 629

    He Never Answers Any of My Letters to Him

    So he’d never get my vote. Same with housing remodeling contractors, they don’t get hired if they don’t call back right away. Its SWE’s rule for quality service.

    And Inslee was the coach behind Seattle’s insane COLA increases? Make him President the OBP alleges? You have SWE rolling on the ground in laughter now ;-)

    https://www.wect.com/2019/01/02/washington-gov-inslee-running-president/

  130. 630

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 626
    Sometimes the Bubbleheads Have to Tip Toe Through the Poisonous Snakes Looking for the Holy Grail

    There is no one that can’t be wrong sometime, we all are. If I needed help with details, you’d be the first realtor I’d call, you’re special. Is Ardell always right? Hades no, but she has experience we can’t ignore.

  131. 631

    Now For Some “Good News” on 2019 ;-)

    My pension Blue Cross plan had a 0% increase, without ACA’s help. This is Trump’s kinda health coverage BTW, don’t give Obama credit….it was going up like 10% a year when Obama was at the helm. My Trump Social Security got a “REAL 2.8% COLA”, with a measly 1.1% increase in Medicare Part B [135.5/mo from 134.0/mo]….under Obama, Medicare Part B took it all, if there was any to take above 0%.

    Money Markets for $CASH$ are running 2.2% at some banks now, check it out….that beats the like 0% Obama gave us. Smile ;-)

    My 2019 401K matching funds account went up to around 3% from 2%. My pension went up 2%/…the fun goes on and on…and you OBP folks want me to vote OBP? You have SWE rolling on the ground in laughter when “actual” 2019 data [not silver tongued lies] are accepted as true.

    Now, does my case mean OBP cases are similar with JUMBO MORTGAGES above $500K not deductible under Trump’s tax plan and $25/K a year real ACA insurance plans lose their tax welfare deductions [and rich elite electric golf carts too] to the rich elite? Hades no. Let the rich elite eat cake, like they did to almost all of us legal citizen voters for decades…

    Its all good.

  132. 632
    Matt P says:

    12 month treasury at 2.59 and 10 year has fallen to 2.62, another inversion incoming.

  133. 633
    sfrz says:

    Is Lars on this site?! Ouch. That’s gonna leave a mark. From the HBB today:
    Responding to developers overpaying in NY: You do have developers who bought land at high costs and are now looking at maybe adjusting projections,’ he said. ‘It’s an unpleasant exercise.’”
    “lars
    January 2, 2019 at 2:21 pm
    Yes, and I caution that the statement that Developers paid too much is big BS for many… here in the PNW where I live in areas where developers and contractors (mini developers) bought tons of average 20+ yrs ago and play time the market game. I watch plot by plot – if prices are low…they wait it out…they wait exactly until the Crook Estate Agents some how “in the know” say GO…meaning, raise the price by 40% for some poor sucker while the frenzy is in full bloom. Sure enough, some sucker buys 5 Acres to build and like a new car, the procedure has already dropped significantly in one yr.

    I decided to start listing to my once in a while gardener as he sees all the activity going on around the region as a part of his living. I remember when this big plot next to me sold, he snickers and said he had passed on it when it was half the price as due diligence “before making any offers” revealed that the cost to put in water, sewer, electricity from the street would cost more than value of the property.

    Now, a nice Gen Y couple is stuck with it, running around for months trying to get their construction loan approved as the rates keep rising.”

  134. 634
    Lars says:

    RE: Justpassinthru @ 540 – .

    Excellent Post. You should check out Mr Money Mustache Blog. Great for all ages but has a huge community of 20-40’s and beyond. The community deep dives many of these issues and is great support to build wealth smartly and and not be herded into mindless spending, FOMO, work until you die at jobs you hate to pay off that clown house (buying overpriced and more than you need) and clown car, etc.

    Gen Xr to retire soon

  135. 635
    Blurtman says:

    Anatomy of a propped up market, or, why RE and rents are so damned high.

    Federal Reserve Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Holdings

    https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/9/16/saupload_FedChart_US-3.jpg

  136. 636
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Lars @ 633 – Thanks for the link to Mr Money Mustache Blog.

    Also, I agree regarding the commentary by Just Passin thru @540. Superb in-the-trenches commentary.

    My daughter is a Millennial and literally has friends in the business (agents) that just don’t understand why she won’t buy over the last year or so. She’s working her butt off to pay down debt incurred due to marriage (good guy but massively in debt) and will eventually buy. She’s been lambasted online by peers, etc ., about her stance but she points out that they complain about things all the while running out and spending $100 on nice dinners with a credit card and buying a brand new car or truck with $600 mo/payments so they can live the dream.

    Oh and her Dad runs an Escrow co and I bring her into the Escrow “laboratory” from time to time to show her she’s not doin’ all that bad.

  137. 637

    I’m Enjoying My Yuban, Getting Ready for Toastmasters Today

    I speak next Thursday at the Kent City Hall…4th floor at noon. The title of my speech will be “The Ten Year Prediction for Seattle”…Deerhawke’s question…it was excellent.

    Join me there…lunch is served free too ;-)

    Stocks are being dragged down by Apple plummeting today, Trump calls it a “glitch”….IMO, its more of the same uncertainty scare of the “dinky $5B Wall” shutdown with Open Border Party (OBP) control of the House 401K burn barrel…I sure hope you sold your portion of retirement for equity in time. DOW is back in 22,000 territory, Apple is tanking bad. Apple was leaving me messages that I ignored all day yesterday, begging for Service Charge money for some unknown reason….now I know why, LOL.

    The highly anticipated Dec 2019 MOM economic report is still not documented, may to morrow Bubbleheads.

  138. 638

    RE: S-Crow @ 635
    My Daughter Loves to Eat Out Too

    The Milenials love their buffets….LOL

    Life is good

  139. 639
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 514

    Shots fired, Ardell. I have been accused by these folks as being part of the REIC. Luckily, my real name is “randomseattledummie”

    I am not an agent, just a…you guessed it. Random, Seattle, Dummie.

  140. 640
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 635 – I am a fellow traveller, so to speak. Paid off all my debts ($80k) with my wife. (Thanks for student loans, Uncle Sam! Wish you had properly funded higher ed tho. ) We are now saving like crazy. Among those I have spoken to who are like-minded, we are thinking that it will be best to buy in two years from now. We shall see… we will be on strike until then.

  141. 641
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 639 – Your patience will pay off. In the meantime, pile up savings and keep on traveling.

    Ironically, I’m reading more commentary about the market having been swimming in the soup of “artificial appreciation.”

    Even The Tim’s boss, Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin mentioned it.

    Evidently offering $10k, 20k+ over “suggested retail” accompanied by Love Letters/Video’s and waiving inspections was in fact a mania and not normal. I hope that the economy keeps humming along and people that purchased within the last couple years don’t have any life changes or job changes that would force people to consider selling.

  142. 642
    uwp says:

    I’m not sure how many folks check the Altos Research page that is linked on the main page for SB, but I am sorry to report that the median list price in Seattle has stabilized (and even started to move up in the shorter moving average).
    https://altos.re/r/329688e?data=median_price

    Zillow is quoting me 30-year mortgage rates back down at 4.25%. (Maybe headed lower? It’s been a while since Justme updated us with the 10-year treasury yield. Weird!)

    Inventory continues to be below long term averages.

    We will probably get some not-so-great numbers from the NWMLS for December and January (and the C-S reports will drag for the requisite 3 month lag longer), but if nothing big changes (an actual flood of inventory, recession, or the like), the Seattle housing market will likely continue it’s upward march.

    Of course, like many of the bears here, I am hopeful that I can buy another home cheap, but maybe we missed our chance?

  143. 643
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: uwp @ 641 – Nothing goes to hell in a straight line, especially housing markets. Give it time. I may consider buying one of your investment properties when the time is right. I’ll be taking love letters and setting review dates accordingly.

  144. 644
    Justme says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 642

    >>Give it time. I may consider buying one of your (ed: UWP) investment properties when the time is right.

    LOL

    >>I’ll be taking love letters and setting review dates accordingly.

    Double-LOL, I like the idea. Sellers have to write love-letters to the buyer to get them to buy their mosspit.

    RE: uwp @ 641

    Same here, uwp. This particular buyer is not interested in being herded into buying that starter home you are wanting to unload. Or as you call it, “helping the millenials”. As if.

  145. 645
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 641

    But enough with the humor. Boy oh boy. So much propaganda, so little time. 5 nuggets of propaganda all in one post, and I get the job of debunking all of them. (The numbers match the paragraphs in the original propaganda missive).

    1. median LIST price rising does not necessarily result in median SOLD price rising. Did you do a proper correlation of the Altos medan list with the observed media sold before opening your mouth? No?

    2. Quicken loans says 4.5% (4.773% APR), not 4.25% for 30Y mortgage today. Is Zillow known for lowballing the mortgage interest rates, and not quoting APY as they should? Then there is the uwp snide remark about the 10Y UST (TNX, or TYT). TNX is down rather dramatically to 2.554% But why? Because the stock market is in quite a panic and TYT notes are viewed as a safe harbor against loss of principal. AAPL lost 10% today. Hard to see how the stock market rout will not decrease housing demand. AMZN down to 1500 again today. And the demand for TYT may not last if losses keep piling up. And there is no guarantee that mortgage rates will keep a constant spread from TYT.

    3. “inventory continues to be below long-term averages”. We all know the truth about this: (a) the important development is that inventory has gone up 2.3X (KC/SFH) and 4.5X (KC/Condo) by the the end of 2018 versus 2017. (b) Using the long term average as a yardstick is not an honest choice because that includes a veritable tsunami of inventory from 2008-2011 post-bubble bust period.

    4. “If the price does not go down any more, then it will be flat or up.” Thanks, Professor Obvious. Did anyone get fooled?

    5. You don’t want to buy another house at the current prices, you want it cheap like the last bust? But at the same time you want OTHER people to buy at the peak? Asnwer: yes, uwp is a bubble-monger, and talking other people into rotten deals is what bubble-mongers do.

    Taking a step back, I’m starting to think we should just make an enumerated list of the most popular bubble-monger propaganda tricks. It will cut down on the debunk time. I could just write:
    “Uwp just invoked propaganda items 1, 3, 4, 14 and 5B. Please refer to the master list for the debunk”.

  146. 646

    RE: Justme @ 644
    LOL….I Like Your List

    Its your opinion but a great estimate none-the-less.

    https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html

    Don’t vacation in China, they may not let you leave the country as an American citizen. This is what happens when we don’t cotow to them…if your travel plans included China, read and heed.

  147. 647

    RE: softwarengineer @ 636
    They Changed My Speaking Date to January 17, 2019, 12PM Kent City Hall, 4th floor Today

    The title of my Entertaining Advanced Manual [I will be a Distinguished Toastmaster when I finish the Gold Manual Series] is Deerhawke’s idea, “Predicting Seattle Area Real Estate in 10 Years”. Its a subjective topic and should be entertaining to most audiences. I evaluate another speech next week. Toastmasters was great fun today, we talked about frozen chocolates too hard on the North Pole and the ergonomics of computer work stations…lots of laughs today ;-)

    Stocks went down about 700 points today….the shutdown burn barrel fire is blazing now, I do hope you folks made corrections in your 401Ks before the equity plunge. No end in sight either, and its a fight over $5B for the WALL that the OBP approved ten years ago, but now refuse to build it. I hate partisan fights spoiling retirements this way.

  148. 648
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 644:

    1. median LIST price rising does not necessarily result in median SOLD price rising. Did you do a proper correlation of the Altos medan list with the observed media sold before opening your mouth? No?

    Do you think list price is uncorrelated with sold prices? That’s a pretty bold claim. The graph on Altos matches pretty close to what we see here at SB. It even dropped from a May 2018 high of 825k to 730k. Right around that -11% number you like to throw around.

    2. Quicken loans says 4.5% (4.773% APR), not 4.25% for 30Y mortgage today. Is Zillow known for lowballing the mortgage interest rates, and not quoting APY as they should?

    The homepage for Zillow mortgage shows an APR of 4.29%. I can run a quote request through their site and get bids at under 4.15% APR for a 600,000 mortgage (750k house with 20% down). I have used Zillow to shop a mortgage and the final numbers matched the quote. I suppose they could just be making it up.

    3. “inventory continues to be below long-term averages”. We all know the truth about this: (a) the important development is that inventory has gone up 2.3X (KC/SFH) and 4.5X (KC/Condo) by the the end of 2018 versus 2017. (b) Using the long term average as a yardstick is not an honest choice because that includes a veritable tsunami of inventory from 2008-2011 post-bubble bust period.

    Current inventory is lower than the long term average. It’s just the truth.

    Even if you ignore the 2008-2011 “post-bubble bust” period, there are still MORE years since 2000 with inventory above current levels than below it.

    4. “If the price does not go down any more, then it will be flat or up.” Thanks, Professor Obvious. Did anyone get fooled?

    I guess we are agreed on that.

    5. You don’t want to buy another house at the current prices, you want it cheap like the last bust? But at the same time you want OTHER people to buy at the peak? Asnwer: yes, uwp is a bubble-monger, and talking other people into rotten deals is what bubble-mongers do.

    I don’t know how many times we have to go over this. I am mostly agnostic on house prices. I would benefit if they go up or down, though it would probably be better for me personally if they go down. I think people should run the numbers for their own situation to decide if buying a home is right for them. If you want to live in a SFH and are planning to stay for 7+ years, it is likely a good idea (as it often is for folks who own for 7+ years). I could care less if you continue to rent.

  149. 649
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 647

    >>I think people should run the numbers for their own situation to decide if buying a home is right for them.

    Yeah? I have never seen anyone “run the numbers” here. What does it take for it to be “right for them” to buy an overpriced house, possibly even at the peak price? Exactly how much money is it okay to lose before it becomes not “right for them” to buy?

    What you are saying is just REIC propaganda and you know it.

  150. 650
    Blake says:

    The Seattle area built more apartments than anywhere other than NY, LA or Dallas in 2018.

    Now, 1 in 10 apartments in the city are empty, rents are dropping and more landlords are offering perks like a free month’s rent
    https://t.co/IvIG48lUw0

  151. 651
    Justme says:

    Dear Renter: If you have decided that losing money on buying a house is not “right for you”, do not despair! There are plenty of rentals that would like to be the roof over your head, and many more are being built.

    https://twitter.com/ByRosenberg/status/1080972992778166272

    Amid building boom, 1 in 10 Seattle apartments are empty, and rents are dropping. Seattle built the fourth-most apartments of any metro area in the country over the past year, with only New York, Los Angeles and Dallas — all with far bigger populations than Seattle — building more. Most multi-family units built in 2018 (thru October), by metro area:

    1. New York 27,600
    2. Dallas 22,200
    3. LA 14,800
    4. Seattle 12,700
    5. Orlando 11,400
    6. Houston 11,100
    7. Miami 10,800
    8. Austin 10,800
    9. Atlanta 10,400
    10 San Francisco 10,100

    And don’t forget about the Washington OFM population estimation methodology, which declares by fiat that any finished new housing units are automatically occupied. Except that they are not!!

    [Blake, apologies, but I had this cued up and wanted to tie it in with the “right for you” propaganda meme].

  152. 652
    uwp says:

    By Blake @ 649:

    The Seattle area built more apartments than anywhere other than NY, LA or Dallas in 2018.

    Now, 1 in 10 apartments in the city are empty, rents are dropping and more landlords are offering perks like a free month’s rent
    https://t.co/IvIG48lUw0

    Sounds dramatic! Let’s read the article…

    “Those numbers are skewed by the new buildings still leasing up… The regional vacancy rate among “stabilized” buildings that have been around at least a couple years was 5.5 percent…”

    “Year-over-year, rents were still up about 3 percent in Seattle and the Eastside after adjusting for landlord concessions.”

    Oh…

  153. 653
    Notme says:

    I don’t hate renters
    just want to sell them house high
    and buy their house low

    -a helpful-bubble-monger-that-loves-renters bubble haiku

  154. 654
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 641
    hi, uwp, can you disclose how many houses you bought, year and price range so I can see where you stand exactly. to be fair, I am renting a duplex unit with 2k rent in Bellevue.
    So, sounds like you have a crystal ball since you said there will be no recession, price will go back up and market has been stabilized. What your crystal ball tell you the Chinese money flow into seattle? just curious. you are fighting hard man, how much skin you have in the game?

  155. 655
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 647
    Your comments make sense to me. Some people on here use emotions to think and do not apply basic economics.

    When supply is historically low and demand is historically high, prices go up. So right now, supply is historically low and demand is historically average, so prices should go up minus whatever temporary factors are pulling the market down. That’s what I think. Take it for what it’s worth. You did point out I didn’t understand the market in the past, but I think I’m starting to get it now.

  156. 656
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 653:

    So right now, supply is historically low and demand is historically average, so prices should go up minus whatever temporary factors are pulling the market down.

    An example of using “emotions to think”. LOL.

    So what in your (emotional) opinion are the ‘temporary factors’ pulling the market down? We are going to experience YOY price decline very soon, perhaps even now.

  157. 657
    uwp says:

    By Blake @ 649:

    The Seattle area built more apartments than anywhere other than NY, LA or Dallas in 2018.

    Now, 1 in 10 apartments in the city are empty, rents are dropping and more landlords are offering perks like a free month’s rent
    https://t.co/IvIG48lUw0

    This sounds very ominous! Let’s read the article:

    “Those numbers are skewed by the new buildings still leasing up… The regional vacancy rate among “stabilized” buildings that have been around at least a couple years was 5.5 percent…”

    “Year-over-year, rents were still up about 3 percent in Seattle and the Eastside after adjusting for landlord concessions…”

    Oh.

  158. 658
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 655

    “Those numbers are skewed by the new buildings still leasing up… The regional vacancy rate among “stabilized” buildings that have been around at least a couple years was 5.5 percent…”

    Hah. So the vacancy rate is “skewed” by new apartments that are not rented “yet”, that is, vacant apartments. Talk about REIC doublespeak and propaganda of the most flagrant kind. Another day, another lie from the REIC.

    Any reasonable person knows that ALL empty apartments must be counted when calculating the vacancy rate. Any other form of “counting” is just fraudulent. Everyone please note that Uwp is endorsing this fraudulent counting method.

    The apartment vacancy rate in Seattle is 10%. Make no mistake about it.

  159. 659
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 653

    >>So right now, supply is historically low and demand is historically average,

    The supply is historically (or should I say, epically) OVERPRICED. That’s what it is. The supply count has more than doubled. Buyers are very sensibly balking at buying at these prices. Call it a buyer strike. The supply absorption rate has been dropping like a rock. Anyone that is not wearing blinders can see that from the data.

  160. 660

    The Ominous Dec 2019 MOM Investor Report Data Came In Today

    Dec 0.26% 1.84% (9.03%) (10.70%) (4.82%)
    YTD 2.91% 0.15% (4.41%) (9.26%) (13.43%)
    Last 12 mo 2.91% 0.15% (4.41%) (9.26%) (13.43%)

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    Bonds did Show a Great Dec 2019, a lousy YTD 0% though. Long-term CDs rose 32% from 2018 2.2% to 2019 2.91%…all stocks tanked YTD. About what we expected. Save your money Bubbleheads and baton down the hatches….the storm has arrived.

  161. 661
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 655 – A couple comments –

    1. If the vacancy rate among “stabilized” buildings was 5.5 percent, to arrive at 10% overall vacancy rate, the new buildings would be 30%-50% vacant. No?

    2. Year-over-year, rents were still up about 3 percent. But the increase may be due to higher mix of newer/luxury units. It is conceivable that rents decline for same apartments YOY. (Not saying this is the case…)

  162. 662
    Dustin says:

    By Erik @ 653:

    RE: uwp @ 647
    Some people on here use emotions to think and do not apply basic economics.

    Erik, don’t forget the real phenomenon of market “psychology”. It’s not just people on this site who use emotions to interact with the market – it’s often ordinary people who are buying and selling homes. It’s easy to dismiss people’s emotions as being irrelevant to prices, but since emotions are such an important part of people’s behavior, they end up being a pretty important part of prices, especially in market “bubbles”. In other words, prices can fall simply because people have negative emotions about the future of the market, even if those emotions have no basis in fact. The good news for investors, I suppose, is that you can occasionally use others’ emotion-driven behaviors to your advantage. For example, when buyers increasingly start going “on strike” because of their feelings, it may create an opportunity for more rational minded buyers to get good deals while their competition are forcibly keeping themselves out of the way.

  163. 663

    RE: Justme @ 657
    Nobody Wants Small Over Priced Cars Anymore Either

    Sales are down to nothing. Did they ever ask us what we wanted? LOL

  164. 664
    ess says:

    RE: Dustin @ 660

    Not to mention it is much easier to fall in love with a house than it is with a stock or mutual fund.
    Purchasing a house entails a full range of emotions – sometimes not all rational.

  165. 665
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 659

    Yes, indeed. Rental price statistics ought to be calculated by comparing repeat rental prices of pairs of identical apartments over time, analogous to what the Case-Shiller index does for housing sales. Otherwise changes in the rental product mix kill will skew the rent price index. And that is especially the case when there are new and more expensive apartments on the market. And then, of ocurse, there is the problem of hiding behind YOY stats when MOM stats should also be published.

  166. 666

    RE: Justme @ 649
    When 30% of Gross Pay [which is about 50% of Net Pay] became the Mortgage Affordability Limit

    Banks took on way too much risk IMO. It should be 30% of net pay after student loans, car payments and other debt are subtracted. That was the loan rules decades ago before the insanity. 20% down and 6-7% mortgage interest aren’t unaffordable? Then you can’t afford a house purchase in my book.

  167. 667
    Sapere Aude says:

    “Of course that’s your contention. You’re a first year grad student. You just got finished readin’ some Marxian historian — Pete Garrison probably. You’re gonna be convinced of that ’til next month when you get to James Lemon, and then you’re gonna be talkin’ about how the economies of Virginia and Pennsylvania were entrepreneurial and capitalist way back in 1740. That’s gonna last until next year — you’re gonna be in here regurgitating Gordon Wood, talkin’ about, you know, the Pre-revolutionary utopia and the capital-forming effects of military mobilization.”

    “Wood drastically — Wood ‘drastically underestimates the impact of social distinctions predicated upon wealth, especially inherited wealth.’ You got that from Vickers, ‘Work in Essex County,’ page 98, right? Yeah, I read that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or do you…is that your thing? ”

    I’m reminded of this movie scene every time I read one poster on here. No, he didn’t go to Harvard, probably didn’t even go to college, and certainly doesn’t understand differential calculus, but he did read the opinion of one person in a book one time. There is no algorithm to guarantee predicting the future in economics-although those algorithms do a great job of predicting past.

  168. 668

    RE: Justme @ 665
    Speaking of Rents No One Can Afford in Seattle Anymore

    Ya better hope the landlords still have lots of $CASH$ in the bank…otherwise they can’t afford real ownership costs bigger than rent. Kiss your rentals good-bye as the foreclosures settle in with landlords? No one asked this question lately BTW. Retirements are thinning out landlords IMO as they run kicking and screaming for the exits…

    This is when I would scoop up foreclosures BTW [before the auctions]. Be patient, the risks are rising and its continuous and possible, soon at a theater near you too. Meanwhile, join Toastmasters to improve your communications skills with the banks and old owners…get your $CASH$ ready for wire transfers like Trump. Then again I may be wrong, but I have no skin in the game [or a mortgage noose] playing the Seattle Real Estate Poker game this way….its all good :-)

    Erik has some great ideas for flipping….his best is continuously change your tactics and be humble. A lot of its luck I’d admit too. But we all can be lucky devils too, if we hope. If we don’t hope we’ll fail.

  169. 669
    uwp says:

    By richard @ 654:

    RE: uwp @ 641
    hi, uwp, can you disclose how many houses you bought, year and price range so I can see where you stand exactly. to be fair, I am renting a duplex unit with 2k rent in Bellevue.
    So, sounds like you have a crystal ball since you said there will be no recession, price will go back up and market has been stabilized.

    Hi richard,

    I own one house, bought a few years ago in the 450-550k range. We were renting a cute apartment that was ~$1,500/month, but were ready for more space, so looking at 2BR rentals that were ~$2,000/mo or a mortgage payment that was only a few hundred dollars more made the decision easier.

    It wasn’t at the peak frenzy of the last couple years, but it wasn’t at the bottom either. I actually had a bank-owned place under contract in 2013 that would have been a great purchase (as was anything in 2013 probably), but I tried to squeeze them more than I should have and ended up backing out. They eventually sold four months later for 10k under my final offer, so both the bank and I messed that one up.

    I don’t think there will be no recession, there will obviously be one someday. I’m just not sure it is starting now. I simply said it looks like things are stabilizing, and if so, prices will likely continue up in the spring selling season.

  170. 670
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: David @ 571

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Thanks for the mid morning chuckle.

  171. 671
    Matt P says:

    Well someone is getting rich with all the market whipsawing, but it’s certainly not the little people. Inversion is over and the 10 year is soaring again. The fed will continue to raise rates.

  172. 672
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/2028-Eastlake-Ave-E-.num.-B-Seattle,-WA,-98102_rb/

    A Tale of Two Bubbles

    12/18/2018 Price change $779,950 -2.5% $526 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    12/8/2018 Price change $799,950 -4.8% $539 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    10/8/2018 Price change $839,950 -2.3% $566 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    9/13/2018 Price change $859,950 -1.7% $579 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    8/3/2018 Price change $874,950 -2.7% $590 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    7/5/2018 Listed for sale $899,000 +79.8% $606 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    2/25/2008 Sold $499,888 -16.7% $337 Public Record
    5/4/2005 Sold $600,000 — $404 Public Record

  173. 673
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 668
    sounds like you got a good deal since you bought years ago it seems you are good at buying bank owned house with some discount. this all make a big difference even with a recession.
    wIth that being said, you see, you are trying to squeeze a good deal on every opportunity. how about for those FOMO chicken bidding up bad deal house at every opportunity? Why don’t you tell them to be like you more savvy in selecting a good deal and timing to buy?

  174. 674
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By uwp @ 648:

    I don’t know how many times we have to go over this. I am mostly agnostic on house prices. I would benefit if they go up or down, though it would probably be better for me personally if they go down.

    Anyone reading your posts can tell you’re obviously bullish. You constantly try to find any justification possible for a narrative of rising real estate prices.

    You can claim to be agnostic in an attempt to be more credible, but people aren’t dumb.

  175. 675
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Blake @ 650

    Once you remove the new units which naturally take time to fill the vacancy rate is around 5-5.5% which is quite normal.

    If the new units haven’t filled in a 6-12 months or however long they would normally take to fill depending upon size/price/location then we could have some issues but this is currently a big nothingburger.

  176. 676
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 674 – I am sure it’s also very “natural” and “quite normal” to offer two months free rent and a $2,500 Amazon gift card to fill an apartment, not to mention likely requiring a token deposit of a couple of hundred bucks. Totally normal and nothing to worry about…

  177. 677
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 675

    Move in incentives are not a new thing…

    The values of these might be higher but so are the rents so the reward for the property owner is much greater to fill the unit when fetching $2500/month vs $1000/month as they would in yesteryear.

  178. 678
    Patrick W. says:

    Usually a lurker…

    Such a bummer this time of month when I check to see if there is new data posted and then make the mistake of going to see what the comments are doing!

    I feel like usually the first 300 or so each month are pretty civil and most everyone has something of some value to add, or a quality counterpoint to offer w/o spite. But, by the end of the month and the second page of comments, less and less new or important is left to say so the spite-to-content ratio is WAY out of wack.

    Anyway, carry on I suppose…

  179. 679
    sfrz says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 675 – Trying their BEST not to decrease rents. Free this Free that! BUT… NO to decrease in rent prices. That will come soon enough.
    Convo over on HBB about the “free” stuff in SLU:

    “b
    January 4, 2019 at 11:05 am

    liars and stats.

    I live in Belltown and when it is not raining, ride my bike to my gym in SLU. In Nov, i cycled by Ascent (the luxury apt bld in the article photo). I went in and asked for a rental price list ‘to show my wife’. They gave me one – and then told me that i could get 2 months ‘free’ if we signed greater than a 12 month lease (i dont know whether 15 months or 18 months would surfice).

    So the 3% decrease does not cover the ‘free months’. It might be closer to a 10-15% decrease.
    ————————–
    In South Lake Union, where Amazon has spawned a new neighborhood with burgeoning apartment high-rises, 18 percent of units are empty. Vacancies hit 16 percent in the downtown Seattle core, 13 percent in First Hill, 11 percent in Queen Anne/Magnolia and 12 percent in Redmond, which is building the most apartments among King County suburbs. About 15 percent of units are empty in both Tukwila and Sammamish/Issaquah, which each just opened large new apartment buildings.
    Reply

    Chinbabwe
    January 4, 2019 at 11:15 am

    “…then told me that i could get 2 months ‘free’ if we signed greater than a 12 month lease…”

    I would have laughed in their face. They’re trying desperately to hold onto prices which were never steeped in reality in the first place. You tell them it’s 2 free months on a 12 month lease or nothing.

    Every vacancy is somebody bleeding cash. With vacancy rates well over 12% in the whole area, there’s a lot of hemorrhaging going on.
    Reply

    Ben Jones
    January 4, 2019 at 11:22 am

    ‘the 3% decrease does not cover the ‘free months’. It might be closer to a 10-15% decrease’

    It’s actually a lot worse than that. Effective rents would include rents lost to vacancy. So you can see some of these guys are pushing 30% declines or more. They are fooked.
    Reply

    MGSpiffy
    January 4, 2019 at 11:27 am

    It’s actually a lot worse than that. Effective rents would include rents lost to vacancy. So you can see some of these guys are pushing 30% declines or more. They are fooked.

    Unless they already flipped that building to a new Greater Fo.. I mean New Investor. It’s ‘Late to the Party Time’ for those new buildings, but nobody wants to be the first to admit it.”

  180. 680
    Realistic says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 671:

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/2028-Eastlake-Ave-E-.num.-B-Seattle,-WA,-98102_rb/

    A Tale of Two Bubbles

    12/18/2018 Price change $779,950 -2.5% $526 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    12/8/2018 Price change $799,950 -4.8% $539 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    10/8/2018 Price change $839,950 -2.3% $566 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    9/13/2018 Price change $859,950 -1.7% $579 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    8/3/2018 Price change $874,950 -2.7% $590 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    7/5/2018 Listed for sale $899,000 +79.8% $606 Sound Point Real Estate LLC
    2/25/2008 Sold $499,888 -16.7% $337 Public Record
    5/4/2005 Sold $600,000 — $404 Public Record

    According to King County records there was an old structure (a 4-plex) and the sale in 2005 for $600k was for that old 4-plex. It was demo’ed in 2006 and 4 new dwellings were built in its place. So, the sale in 2008 for 499k was for a new construction. I’m not saying there is no bubble (there is). I just wanted to point out the facts for accuracy.

  181. 681
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 676 – The portion of the Seattle Times headline that isn’t being discussed is “…and rents are dropping”

    The full headline “Amid building boom, 1 in 10 Seattle apartments are empty, and rents are dropping”

  182. 682
    uwp says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 673:

    Anyone reading your posts can tell you’re obviously bullish. You constantly try to find any justification possible for a narrative of rising real estate prices.

    You can claim to be agnostic in an attempt to be more credible, but people aren’t dumb.

    I’m “bullish” in the sense that I don’t think home prices are going to crater. I’m agnostic in the sense that I don’t actually care what happens. I am not rooting for either thing to happen.

    Best case scenario for me is house prices to drop along with interest rates but rents hold somewhat steady so I could buy another house for cheap and keep my current one for a rental.

  183. 683
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: uwp @ 680 – Well, I respectfully disagree. In your posts you continually indicate that you think prices will start rising again soon, not just that you don’t think they’ll crater.

  184. 684
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 671

    I am confused why any of this matters?

    First off, the sale from 2005 is of a completely different structure so that doesn’t matter in the slightest.

    It looks like a seller/agent listed the home too high. I hope you aren’t suggesting that it has dropped in value 120k in 5 months? It wasn’t worth 900 when they listed it (or else it would have sold) and they appear to still be high being that it is still active. Has it dropped in value some? Absolutely. Your presentation of these numbers is cryptic at best and more like misleading if you ask me.

  185. 685
    Matt P says:

    New post is up.

  186. 686

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 625

    Another .25 drop in mortgage rates again today to 4.25% with a 4.38% APR. This an email from my normal source about an hour ago. Wells Fargo still showing 4.375% but I think that’s because their 5 year is 4.25% and they have to show some difference between the 5 year and the 30 year.

    Maybe we’ll see the 5 year rate the same or more than the 30 year tomorrow. That will be something to talk about. It’s pretty close right now and both the 5 and 7 year APRs are higher than the 30 year by far at present.

    Rates had hit 5% with lots of talk about impact on prices. Now that they are back down to 4.25%. Should be a Spring Bump as long as the Government shutdown ends.

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