NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further

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November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November’s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

November 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,020 -17.5% +113.9%
Closed Sales 1,811 -11.7% -18.6%
SAAS (?) 1.10 -14.5% +26.3%
Pending Sales 1,926 -16.1% -13.0%
Months of Supply 2.22 -6.5% +162.7%
Median Price* $643,913 -4.0% +2.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year ago to a seven-year high in 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down 13 percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November, to its lowest level since August 2014.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

November 2018: $643,913
November 2017: $630,750
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

The Seattle Times hasn’t published their story yet. I’ll update this post when they do.

Update: Here’s the story from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever

And here’s the NWMLS press release: Home buyers have “window of opportunity” with shift to more balanced market

4.00 avg. rating (82% score) - 3 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

686 comments:

  1. 251
    redmondjp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 241:

    The ignorance in Texas is beyond bone deep, it goes down to the molecular or atomic level. It is only a little over an hour’s drive from Austin to Waco (properly pronounced “Wacko”), where people still celebrate the Branch Dravidians. The whole state is full of Trump supporters, gun rights nuts, football religionists, evangelical pharisees, climate change deniers, etc.etc. Leaving Austin and going out into Texas is kind of like leaving Wallingford and suddenly ending up in Garfield County.

    ^This is precisely why country folk can’t stand city folk. Your attitude is one of conformity, superiority, and intolerance, so congratulations on that. The people who grow the food that you eat deserve better. Many of them even have college degrees!

  2. 252
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 243

    I really wonder about these stats and what they represent.

    SBRK (Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland) is the headquarters of Microsoft, Amazon, Costco, and Starbucks along with a whole range of interesting startups. In the last decade, there has not been a problem getting angel money or VC money here for early stage development, for primary financing or for mezzanine financing. This is no longer the early 90’s when it was all about knowing the right old Seattle families, a time when ventures in the northwest were starved for money.

    All of the money made by alumni of Microsoft, Amazon, Costco and Starbucks (as well as companies bought up and consolidated) is now looking for a better return than the S&P 500. Do we have as well developed a venture network as in the Bay Area? Of course not. But is it a robust system and is it growing and consolidating fast? You bet. And it has connections to the larger venture networks in the Bay Area and around the country.

    There is substantial private money that does not report (think Gates and Bezos). Then you have Madrona, Ignition, Maveron, Vulcan and Voyager that have all done over 100 deals each. Not exactly Kleiner Perkins? Of course not. But they get a lot teed up and rolling. They can bring in more money when they need to, including from Sand Hill Rd. and Wall St. And behind the list above there are a couple of dozen smaller and hungrier northwest venture firms that have between 5 and 100 deals under their belts.

    I would guess that your stats do not represent the true nature of the activity because they do not count the number of private deals done in the Pacific Northwest. I would also guess that they undercount the activity in Seattle because most of what is getting funding here is angel or early stage and less is mezzanine or pre-IPO. More dollars looks like more deal flow, but it is just a reflection of the larger deal size.

    SBRK is the center of a technology and innovation cluster. Is it well behind the Bay Area– no question. But the planning, infrastructure and foundation are there for a lot of rapid and diversified growth.

    This is actually a good analogy. It takes me 6 months to a year to do planning and permitting for a house. Meanwhile nothing seems to be happening. Then we finally do the demo and break ground. Another 2-3 months where there is a lot of activity but nothing much seems to be really happening. Finally we frame the house in 2-3 weeks and people are truly shocked at how much progress we have made.

    Even if there is a national recession, there will be far more apparent technological and business growth in the area in the next 10 years than in the last 10. Can real estate values go down? Absolutely, especially if there is a recession compounded by political chaos in DC.

    But if there is as more change here in the next decade than there has been in the last decade (national recession 2007-2011 included) what do you think is going to happen to real estate values in the next decade?

  3. 253
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 243:

    RE: Matt P @ 242 – Seattle is nowhere near San Francisco – not even close. Here is the share of VC investments in the US in 2017 –

    San Francisco/San Jose – 44.19%
    New York – 16.25%
    Boston – 11.50%
    Los Angeles – 8.62%

    Seattle? Drumroll… 2.28%.

    Amazon is mostly a retail company. And Apple picks Austin (yes, Texas!) over Seattle. LOL.

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/03/the-extreme-geographic-inequality-of-high-tech-venture-capital/552026/

    I’m not talking about investments. I’m talking about actual software engineers. With Amazon and MS both based here, there are enough software guys in the area to affect the overall salary and drive up prices just like in SF. There are no other cities where this happens. Everywhere else, software is secondary. Maybe Austin will get there and some other secondary markets, but they’ll resent it if they do.

  4. 254
    Eastsider says:

    By Matt P @ 252:

    I’m not talking about investments. I’m talking about actual software engineers. With Amazon and MS both based here, there are enough software guys in the area to affect the overall salary and drive up prices just like in SF. There are no other cities where this happens. Everywhere else, software is secondary. Maybe Austin will get there and some other secondary markets, but they’ll resent it if they do.

    MS has been here for decades and its presence has never driven up home prices (okay maybe a little). I have no idea how many software engineers ($100,000+ salary) Amazon hires, but I doubt the number is close to Microsoft hires. You don’t need software guys to drive up prices. Just look north to Vancouver with even crazier prices!

  5. 255
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 251:

    I would guess that your stats do not represent the true nature of the activity because they do not count the number of private deals done in the Pacific Northwest. I would also guess that they undercount the activity in Seattle because most of what is getting funding here is angel or early stage and less is mezzanine or pre-IPO. More dollars looks like more deal flow, but it is just a reflection of the larger deal size.

    Those are not my stats. But I have no doubt about their authenticity. If you have other stats, feel free to share. Whatever undercounted private deals there are in Seattle, there are likely 10x-20x similar activities in the Bay Area.

    But if there is as more change here in the next decade than there has been in the last decade (national recession 2007-2011 included) what do you think is going to happen to real estate values in the next decade?

    I wish I have an answer. We simply have a lot more uncertainties today than during the recession. That said, I would avoid RE in the near term.

  6. 256
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 249:

    But the bubble-mongers themselves were the ones setting the bar very high by nattering incessantly about how every big tech company was going to expand greatly in Seattle. Now all that rosy propaganda, and all the speculation, panic-buying and attempted front-running that came with it, is coming home to roost.

    In a city of 700,000 (and growing), one thousand jobs is a pretty big deal. Only 4 cities in US got 1,000 or more new jobs from Apple in the announcement. New York got “hundreds.” I think I read recently that NYC was #2 in VC money. And that clearly means a lot in terms of jobs.

  7. 257
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 255

    I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine exactly how many goalposts you moved here, and in what fashion. Let’s just call it “more of the same propaganda”.

  8. 258
    sfrz says:

    TIMBER! The Seattle skid row continues. Debt donkeys and FBs get the life jackets out. You’re goin’ under, aka upside down.

    “In Seattle, where demand has outstripped supply for years, the drop is more abrupt. More than half of homes a year ago saw bidding wars, while less than a quarter are seeing them now.

    Home values in Seattle were the hottest in the nation last spring, up 13 percent annually in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That gain was down to 8 percent in September, the most recent reading. And supply in Seattle is up 60 percent compared to a year ago, according to Realtor.com.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/some-of-the-hottest-housing-markets-are-falling-hardest.html

  9. 259
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 255
    how about losing 1000 jobs next year. how do you know there is only net job growth not reduction?
    Where is apple’s growth? they are running out of ideas of innovation and people are tired of (also broke) to buy its overpriced phones? It is not impossible for apple to cut its workforce to boost its stock price. You don’t need 500+ engineers just for a phone camera. remember, hiring more people is a big cost, if the sales down, there is no reason for apple to expand. there is a lagging factor here.
    It will be more convincing to show us how much more Chinese money pouring into seattle compared to last year. Any argument for further housing price growth without touching the key factors(Chinese$ and interest rate) are meaningless.

  10. 260
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 251
    you poised yourself as somebody in the know, two questions:
    1.Do you have any data to show increase of Chinese money inflow?
    2.Do you have any data to show the 30 year mortgage rate to drop back 4% next year?

    you don’t need a long writing piece to convince home buyers to buy home, just give your take on the two questions above.

    As a wage earner, can you explain how your rosy VC investment activities can increase my income so I can engage your desired housing bidding wars?

  11. 261
    sfrz says:

    This is a FED-created everything bubble. We never recovered from the last meltdown. Only papered over by thin air.
    From JesseColombo@thebubblebubble
    “When conducting its quantitative easing programs, the Fed created brand new money out of thin-air (in digital form) and used it to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These programs helped to boost the overall bond market, not just Treasuries or MBS.”

    “…Total outstanding non-financial corporate debt has increased by over $2.5 trillion or 40% since its 2008 high, which was already a dangerously high level in its own right. ”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/08/29/the-u-s-is-experiencing-a-dangerous-corporate-debt-bubble/#1a24898f600e

  12. 262
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: richard @ 259

    Richard, I am not a guy who knows much about the bond market or mortgages. From what I read, mortgage rates should trend higher. If mortgage rates were to drop, I think you could be fairly assured that there is a nasty recession underway.

    I also don’t have any good data on Chinese buyers in this market. From what I know, nobody else does either since they don’t track it. I can only go on the basis of what I have read in the paper and have heard real estate agents discussing. The consensus is that there are far fewer now than last year, in large part because of tighter Chinese currency controls, trade conflict with the US and the correction since the spring.

    Look, I am not trying to tell you to buy real estate. Real estate is not a get rich quick deal. If you work it out right, it is a get rich slo-w-l-y deal. And this may either be the time to buy or not to buy. If you cannot make it through volatility in the short or medium term, it might not be for you.

  13. 263
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 261

    For a buyer like me, I’d like to know the tradeoff of timing the housing market and the potential rent loss. The bright prospect of the city is just a noise, which is not substantial.

    if rich people (maybe you are one of them) snatch more and more properties as a rental investment, I will surrender since there is no hope for normal wage earner to buy a home at a more reasonable price level. I may leave for a cheaper city with lower pay but overall lower cost.

    In my opinion, there are three classes(not minority and white, not liberal and conservative etc) in this city.
    1. those who bought home.
    2. those who haven’t bought
    3. homeless
    I don’t think category 2 want to be category 3. if seattle become more of a renter city, I think category 2 will leave for another city to become category 1. and Seattle will become a city of 1&2, a more polarized city in economic sense not in ideology sense.
    It is unrealistic for category 1 people to proganada its way to force category 2 to become category 1.

  14. 264

    RE: Deerhawke @ 261

    But the rules have changed. The initial crackdown on Chinese Cash transactions was only in Miami and NYC. Seattle has been added to the list. Someone like S-Crow if he happens by may know better how and when this will be implemented here under the expanded program that now includes Seattle “and surrounding Counties”. I expect that includes Bellevue and The Eastside. Not sure how far out from Seattle it goes.

    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/u-s-expands-geographic-targeting-orders-to-las-vegas-boston-chicago-114490

  15. 265
    Matt P says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 263:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 261

    But the rules have changed. The initial crackdown on Chinese Cash transactions was only in Miami and NYC. Seattle has been added to the list. Someone like S-Crow if he happens by may know better how and when this will be implemented here under the expanded program that now includes Seattle “and surrounding Counties”. I expect that includes Bellevue and The Eastside. Not sure how far out from Seattle it goes.

    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/u-s-expands-geographic-targeting-orders-to-las-vegas-boston-chicago-114490

    They lowered the threshold to 300k. That’s the how. When? It already started last month. All cash purchases through LLCs dropped 80% nationwide after they started in just Miami and NYC. Expanding will choke the rest out.

    Here’s the official directive: https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/Real%20Estate%20GTO%20GENERIC_111518_FINAL%20508.pdf

  16. 266
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 253:

    By Matt P @ 252:

    I’m not talking about investments. I’m talking about actual software engineers. With Amazon and MS both based here, there are enough software guys in the area to affect the overall salary and drive up prices just like in SF. There are no other cities where this happens. Everywhere else, software is secondary. Maybe Austin will get there and some other secondary markets, but they’ll resent it if they do.

    MS has been here for decades and its presence has never driven up home prices (okay maybe a little). I have no idea how many software engineers ($100,000+ salary) Amazon hires, but I doubt the number is close to Microsoft hires. You don’t need software guys to drive up prices. Just look north to Vancouver with even crazier prices!

    You think MS only has only driven house prices up by a little? What do you think has caused the insane house prices on the east side if not MS?

  17. 267
    Matt P says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 263:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 261

    But the rules have changed. The initial crackdown on Chinese Cash transactions was only in Miami and NYC. Seattle has been added to the list. Someone like S-Crow if he happens by may know better how and when this will be implemented here under the expanded program that now includes Seattle “and surrounding Counties”. I expect that includes Bellevue and The Eastside. Not sure how far out from Seattle it goes.

    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/u-s-expands-geographic-targeting-orders-to-las-vegas-boston-chicago-114490

    It’s all of King county. All LLC purchases over $300k. Started last month. It already caused a nationwide drop of 80% all cash sales through LLC’s just by targeting NYC and Miami.

    Here’s the official directive:
    https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/Real%20Estate%20GTO%20GENERIC_111518_FINAL%20508.pdf

  18. 268
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Matt P @ 266 – “Crazy Rich Asians” that want to be close to Bill Gates.

  19. 269
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 221:

    Yes, and it is supposed to be good news that Apple “plans” to hire 20k in Austin and 1k in Seattle? Whatever happened to the Apple-is-coming-to-Seattle, bigly, story? Tech boom! NOT!

    Apple’s near term Austin plans are to add 5,000 new jobs, not 20,000. The ultimate campus may accommodate 15,000, but there’s no timeline for that.

    I don’t recall people on the bubble saying we expected all the big tech growth here, or specifically to get the Apple HQ2 in Seattle. Do you have a reference for that?

    That reminds me, you forgot to get back to me on what specific mis-characterizations of your graphs had been presented here. I am concerned the readers will start to think that you are talking out your behind.

  20. 270
    Jay says:

    Didn’t we start an ugly financial crisis that triggered a national recession about 10 years ago? Yet those who held out still ended up mostly ahead. A lot can happen in 10 years and I bet long term technology only gets stronger and stronger. I also see a lot of apartment over construction. If sure they will be filled with younger renters who some day will grow up and start a family. I imagine many would prefer to raise their kids in SFH with a yard. But we don’t seem to be building them as much. Over the next 10 years I can’t imagine renting as a good proposition in this area.

  21. 271

    RE: Matt P @ 267

    Thank you. Looks like effective 11/17 for transactions to be reported within 30 days of closing. So the first due by is in a few days. I’ll give it a couple of months before asking if they are sending a monthly report or sending them individually as each closes.

    My point to Deerhawke was that previous claims that it was impossible to track this type of activity should change in the future, now that tracking them is a legal requirement.

  22. 272

    RE: Matt P @ 266
    The Term Software Engineer and Software Development Mix Like Oil and Water

    Company source control S/W is not taught in colleges. All ya need is a high school diploma to do S/W development, like dinosaur video games and APPs in iPhones.

    Also, the numbers of degreed software engineers to non-degreed technicals [high school diploma] is like 1 engineer for a 1000 other skills in company? Need to see the company data.

  23. 273

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 271
    LOL Ardell

    You’re way too nice….I’d call it just plain laziness.

  24. 274
    Blurtman says:

    Won’t someone buy this refurbed crapbox? 1926 vintage, and clearly has over $400,000 of upgrades. If not, why list for $949k after buying for $500k?

    Dopey, greedy fookers.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5522-25th-Ave-NE-98105/home/312763

    Date Event & Source Price Appreciation
    Dec 11, 2018
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1349059 $825,000 —
    Oct 23, 2018
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1349059 $849,000 —
    Oct 5, 2018
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1349059 $899,000 —
    Sep 19, 2018
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1349059 $924,500 —
    Aug 23, 2018
    Listed (Active)
    NWMLS #1349059 $949,500 —
    Mar 1, 2018
    Sold (Public Records)
    Public Records $500,000 4.7%/yr
    Oct 7, 2003
    Sold (Public Records)
    Public Records $257,500 —

  25. 275

    RE: Deerhawke @ 262
    Very Open Minded Blog Deerhawke

    You are rapidly improving [don’t we all need constant improvements] IMO. You are making SWE one of you’re blog supporters…LOL

    A house is a big investment and could ruin your life if not planned properly. IMO, the youth lost the chance to plan anything properly in the Seattle area…unless basement dwellers with old money Baby Boomers is considered economic survival planning. Its sure inconvenient for the Baby Boomers life styles…LOL

  26. 276

    RE: Blurtman @ 274
    Every Case is Different

    But I’d need to see the remodeling receipts and paperwork to make a final decision if this is a price trend or a value estimate of “built in” price increases.

  27. 277
    sfrz says:

    Hmm…. doesn’t look like they’re expecting that Spring bounce in Portland, does it? What happened to the shortage? We have to build more air boxes! Demand is outstripping supply!

    “In an email to employees, Rebecca Esau, the Development Services director, said the cuts come as officials there were given a “quite sobering” forecast for Portland building trends.

    A construction slowdown by definition hurts the bottom line for Esau’s bureau, which gets most of its funding from permit application fees.”

    https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2018/12/layoffs-strike-portland-development-bureau-as-building-boom-slows.html

  28. 278
    Notme says:

    Gee-whiz good golly
    life is a box of teardowns
    never know what you get

    -a forrest-gump-of-bubble-mongering bubble haiku

  29. 279
    Justme says:

    Weekend active inventory update, King County, graphical edition.

    As always, click on link, then click once more for enlarged view. The graphs compare 2018-versus-2017 inventory on an hourly basis.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-15
    https://imgur.com/a/KSyAaNG

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-15
    https://imgur.com/a/IGTH5aN

    Year 2018 KC SFH active inventory outnumbers year 2017 by a ratio that has been above 1X since mid-March, and has been on a upward trend all year long. In week 47, the ratio passed 2.0X for the first time, after a late-season surge. After some volatility related to the month end (Nov30/Dec1 fell on Fri/Sat), the ratio reached a new year-high this week, a touch below the value 2.2X. Here are the graphs of the factor (2018/2017 ratio):

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-15
    https://imgur.com/a/Gf6y5sR

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-15
    https://imgur.com/a/cdoYbNZ

    The trend is continual and upward. For KC Condo inventory, the ratio 2018/2017 also reach a new yearly high this week, above the 3.6X level for the first time. As they old saying goes, Condos are the last to rise and the first to fall.

    There remains a notably elevated crowd of sellers at the exits of the KC housing market, the largest crowd of any of the years 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018. One has to go back to the bubble-bottom of 2011 to find a larger set of listings in the same week of the year.
    It is notable that sellers are taking the holidays off to a much lesser degree than in 2017.

    Reader alert: Bubble-mongers do not like what these graphs say. The monger reactions vary from posting a bunch of distractions and mis-directions, to mis-characterization of the graphs and what they say. Please examine each graph yourself, it is worth the time.

  30. 280
    Eastsider says:

    RE: sfrz @ 277 – New homes supply increased to 7.4 months in October nationwide, the highest level since 2011. A few builders will be in trouble if this number reaches 8-9 months. Well, some may already be in trouble.

  31. 281
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 279

    Whenever Tim’s inventory graphs make me want to cry, I love to come here and see yours.

  32. 282
    Blurtman says:

    1909 (!) crap box. Please pay me $400k more than I paid, just because I am greedy and you, desperate and ill informed.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2328-Walnut-Ave-SW-98116/home/150556

  33. 283
    TheBenBernank says:

    Side note, I find it very… unfortunate (?) that Zillow continues to forecast prices and “Zestimate” values upwards in the near term. How can you do that with a straight face? Ridiculous.

  34. 284

    RE: Blurtman @ 282
    Museum Pieces

    I love Museum Pieces 1968 Dodge Chargers, had one up until 1990….it rusted out and the engine had 186,000 miles on it….replaced the trick tranny twice with used ones for like $300 back then…but never over-hauled the wore out valve systems that needed obsolete leaded gas to survive. What gas would I have put in it anyway? All the leaded 95 octane it needed got replaced with unleaded 92 octane that made the engine sputter on and on after I turned the key off. I fixed this by turning the timing back 2 1/2 degrees, but lost power too…

    The Seattle homes are in that problem too…ungrounded electrical paper insulated wires, old CRES rusted pipes, earthquake damaged foundations, brown colored water supplies from 100 year old KC systems, etc, etc… Money Pits to dump. Remodeling doesn’t fix this problem, a bulldozer does. Or simply continuously pour money into it…I could have poured like $25K in my 1968 Charger [$4000 cost new in 1968], but it would just be a collector car requiring dehumidifying garage space maintenance eating my budgets alive…can’t drive a Museum Piece. Small planes [boats too] are disappearing too….no one can afford the rent and maintenance to fly it a few times a year. Its cheaper to rent ’em.

  35. 285
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 284 – The chutzpah of these flipper scammers astounds. The outrageous attempted margin on these cosmetically updated homes is a sure indicator of the bubble.

  36. 286
    Realistic says:

    Is it possible that Pierce and South King County will somehow defy the Seattle downtrend and keep rising? This article cites a few sources and says: “South Sound buyers should get ready for what expects will be steady, sustained home price increases”. Is it viable or just bubble-mongering?

    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattles-local-market-is-cooling-but-everywhere-else-is-just-getting-started

  37. 287

    Hey Bubbleheads…Turn FOX News on Right Now

    Chris Wallas is interviewing Bill Gates. Bill looks old and haggard lately…wrinkles and age have been hard on him. He’s condemning Trump’s Populism, does not mention OVERPOPULATION destroying Africa for like 60-70 years and recommends funding for globalism funding from American tax dollars for Afica’s poverty problems they caused….more taxes IOWs…LOL

    I give to a lot of charities to American Native Indians, AHA, VFW, Paralyzed Veterans, cancer research, and poor in America first. Clean up our own muddy homeless pool first, then we can tackle OVERPOPULATION globalism concerns. My opinion. We have a long road to do it, but let’s begin now. Bill Gates doesn’t care about America?

  38. 288

    RE: Realistic @ 286

    The two most significant sources of decline are

    1) The loss of the “bid up” caused by bidding wars
    2) The reinstatement of the discount for property weakness

    The areas where the median price was increased the most by the two above factors are the areas that had the most number of offers per house. The areas where $100,000 bid up became the norm and weak houses (didn’t have 3 bedrooms on one level, busy road, no discount for repairs, etc) are where the first 10% decline hit. So it makes sense that areas that did not have as much frenzied activity and bid ups will currently be faring better. What is being sliced off is the increase caused by aberrant behavior of buyers en masse.

    The question is if Friday’s 2nd Stock Market correction during the last 52 weeks will bring a 2nd round of 10% decline, or simply reinforce the first. The latter more likely since there was a new peak after the first correction. But we’ll see what happens next week.

  39. 289
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 288 – Expect a big ramp up in the market this next week, followed by another corrrection which will be blamed on the government shutdown.

  40. 290
    sfrz says:

    The multiple bubbles are popping. The fake recovery is coming home to roost. Housing is for people to become homeowners, not central bank specuvesting, or get-rick-quick flippers. Since the repeal of Glass-Steagall, this is what we get. Casino-style housing, ripe with the corruption of drug money, dirty money, international money laundering, and the Vampire Squid Goldman (Blackstone) getting even more filthy rich with the spoils of the working class. The REIC and their minions helped push the bubble with their breathless rhetoric. This is an insane housing bubble with an almost assured catastrophic ending.

    “Since 2008, governments and central banks have stabilized the situation without fundamentally addressing high debt levels, weak banking systems and excessive financialization. Growth and inflation won’t recover until they’re dealt with. The surprise is that this comes as a surprise to policymakers, given that Japan’s experience since 1990 highlights the limits of available policy tools.

    In any new crisis, then, policymakers are likely to be badly exposed. Central bank purchases of real estate and equities, helicopter money and more direct intervention could well fail to boost economic activity. That would contribute to a collapse in confidence in authorities, as the sight of governments forced to print money and throw it out of the window or take over markets increases people’s anxiety about the future.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-15/central-banks-have-few-options-to-deal-with-another-crisis

  41. 291
    momentum says:

    The secondary markets will increase until their value has equilibrated relative to Seattle prices-the epicenter of the increase. Secondary markets always lag the primary. The faster and further Seattle prices fall, the faster and quicker the secondary markets will stop growing to reach a relative equilibrium. The fact that Seattle prices are known to be reducing will quickly cause those secondary markets to stop their growth. Unless, the secondary market is one in which homeowners are moving to from the primary market to downsize for things like retirement or reduced cost of living. The south sound is less likely to be where they will move as it has never been a place people think, “this is were I want to retire to-The Hill Top neighborhood.” It is currently still holding momentum and increasing, slightly, because it has been a relative bargain to the epicenter of price growth. Remember, location, location, location. Those secondary markets will be hit the hardest if the market continues to fall in Seattle. They only went up because Seattle became so expensive. If I wouldn’t be buying in Seattle right now, I certainly wouldn’t be buying a secondary market right now.

  42. 292
    Justme says:

    RE: Realistic @ 286

    I think it is unlikely that Pierce or South KC will defy gravity or defy the bust.

    How bubbles work as that they start in some select epicenter(s) and then grow outward toward less costly areas as more and more people are priced out, or refuse to pay the demanded price. But then the bust comes and it happens in much the same way: First the center (highest price areas) cannot hold, and then it spreads outward. It takes some amount of time for this process to play out.

    (I thought I had posted this shortly after 286 was posted, but turns out it failed with a database error . In any case, interesting to see that the word epicenter is popular today).

  43. 293

    RE: momentum @ 291

    Correct. I did a targeted study just before leaving for Thanksgiving and found that some of the South markets only have to go down by 15% to 20% to start snowballing into short sales, which would drag the median down further. Many of the areas I work doubled since 2014 while some “down south” only increased by 20% during the same period. I did the study by using recent sales of homes built in 2014 to be sure there weren’t any major improvements in between the purchase and sale dates.

    The areas that doubled won’t suffer much from the 20% reduction, but those that only went up 20% in the last four years could start snowballing downward. Though I still expect a Spring Bump of some kind. Rare not to have one at all due to “mix” and volume of better properties during that time.

  44. 294

    RE: redmondjp @ 289

    The way the market continuously blames rise and fall on China trade talk points, even changing their tune mid-stream on the same day, one would think Trump had a day trader behind a curtain acting on his tweets.

  45. 295
    Saffy The Pook says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 293:

    RE: momentum @ 291

    Correct. I did a targeted study just before leaving for Thanksgiving and found that some of the South markets only have to go down by 15% to 20% to start snowballing into short sales, which would drag the median down further. Many of the areas I work doubled since 2014 while some “down south” only increased by 20% during the same period. I did the study by using recent sales of homes built in 2014 to be sure there weren’t any major improvements in between the purchase and sale dates.

    The areas that doubled won’t suffer much from the 20% reduction, but those that only went up 20% in the last four years could start snowballing downward. Though I still expect a Spring Bump of some kind. Rare not to have one at all due to “mix” and volume of better properties during that time.

    A similar thing happened to the Bay Area at the beginning of the 2006 crisis. All those speculative properties in Davis and other areas ex-Bay Area that were the last to rise also led the decline as Bay Area refugees who were priced out but still worked there finally had a chance to get out from under their 1+ hour commutes.

  46. 296
    Saffy The Pook says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 294:

    RE: redmondjp @ 289

    The way the market continuously blames rise and fall on China trade talk points, even changing their tune mid-stream on the same day, one would think Trump had a day trader behind a curtain acting on his tweets.

    A pretty good rule of thumb for almost every policy or action from the White House is that Trump does whatever will make Trump money, legal or not.

  47. 297

    RE: redmondjp @ 289
    The Stocks Lost All Their Power Because???

    You can blame it on the Chinese Tariffs, but they didn’t matter during a November Bull Market. Blame the Mueller Probe?….LOL….What a mess Open Borders have inflicted on America.

    Shutdown Friday? Lengthy Furloughs with lost pay [not paid back?] like Obama’s 2013 shutdown…this lowers pensions too…Merry Christmas Bubbleheads. LOL

    Why is border security causing a shutdown? Why isn’t border security just normal business as usual…LOL??? Then throw in the dead Obamacare snake into the chicken coop…hey Kary, you may be shopping again for health coverage by paying into a recently dead-horse ACA replacement plan for the previous terminated ACA plan in Wash St? The fun goes on and on…

    Pass the black label, SWE needs a swig…

    They should rename it Obama Scare…LOL

  48. 298

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 296
    Yeah…Trump Caused All the Problems

    That were there during the Obama terms too….how about the truth? OVERPOPULATION is destroying our sovereign nation borders. No nation survives without border control, but the Open Border Party [OBP] doesn’t like root cause identification that changes any of their globalism establishment plans. They’re pig headed, even if they have to destroy all our jobs.

  49. 299
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 294 – Read what Charles August Lindbergh (the aviator’s father) had to say about this (he was 100% correct) over 100 years ago:

    “To cause high prices, all the Federal Reserve Board will do will be to lower the rediscount rate…, producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when … business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check … prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the strangest, most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The system is private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people’s money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, They also know when to stop panic. Inflation and deflation work equally well for them when they control finance.”

    Whomever is in the white house is but a puppet – Trump has nothing to do with this (please see your doctor for symptoms of TDS).

  50. 300
    sfrz says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 299 -Agree. It makes NO difference who the puppet is on the stage. Merely mouthpieces for the masses to toss tomatoes or cheer for.
    Wall St. is the parasite that has infected us all, and the zombie at the podium is only a numbed host of the parasite.
    “The parasite can’t simply come in and take something. First of all, it needs to numb the host. It has an enzyme so that the host doesn’t realize the parasite’s there. And then the parasites have another enzyme that takes over the host’s brain. It makes the host imagine that the parasite is part of its own body, actually part of itself and hence to be protected. That’s basically what Wall Street has done. It depicts itself as part of the economy. Not as a wrapping around it, not as external to it, but actually the part that’s helping the body grow, and that actually is responsible for most of the growth. But in fact it’s the parasite that is taking over the growth.”

    “The result is an inversion of classical economics,” Hudson said. “It turns Adam Smith upside down. It says what the classical economists said was unproductive parasitism actually is the real economy. And that the parasites are labor and industry that get in the way of what the parasite wants, which is to reproduce itself, not help the host, that is, labor and capital.”
    https://michael-hudson.com/2015/09/killing-the-host-the-book/

  51. 301
    whatsmyname says:

    Hooray for the holidays. Still waiting for the candy, but the nuts are already here.

  52. 302
    Whitechoco says:

    I’m starting to think that we are in the midst of a recession which started a few months ago. The markets are starting to wake up to the geopolitical factors which have become magnified under the Trump administration. Unwinding of QE may have a larger effect on asset prices than some wish to believe. Cash is becoming king again for the first time in a long time. As a buyer sitting on the sidelines I welcome the housing slowdown. The coming months will be very telling as we enter into the seasonal spring market.

  53. 303
    Ardell says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 299

    My Trump comment was a joke about the media coverage, which is laughably inaccurate.

    I do however firmly believe that the 2 parties make every effort to distort to their advantage. But the distortion will increasingly be from the Democrats to crash the market as it increases their chance to take the Whitehouse in 2020.

    If you are saying the system is politically neutral and 2007 and 2008 “credit crisis” had nothing to date with the Presidential Election cycle, that’s just naive.

  54. 304
    redmondjp says:

    By Ardell @ 303:

    RE: redmondjp @ 299

    My Trump comment was a joke about the media coverage, which is laughably inaccurate.

    I do however firmly believe that the 2 parties make every effort to distort to their advantage. But the distortion will increasingly be from the Democrats to crash the market as it increases their chance to take the Whitehouse in 2020.

    If you are saying the system is politically neutral and 2007 and 2008 “credit crisis” had nothing to date with the Presidential Election cycle, that’s just naive.

    Did you not read the quote that I posted earlier? These same banksters use the two-party system to divide and conquer the little people, arguing over things like abortion and a wall, whilst power and wealth is concentrated at the top. It’s equally naive to not understand this, but most don’t because they don’t want to believe the ugly truth.

  55. 305
    toad37 says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 288 – Not a good start today… and market looks like it want’s to head much lower.

  56. 306
    Blurtman says:

    By redmondjp @ 304:

    By Ardell @ 303:

    RE: redmondjp @ 299

    My Trump comment was a joke about the media coverage, which is laughably inaccurate.

    I do however firmly believe that the 2 parties make every effort to distort to their advantage. But the distortion will increasingly be from the Democrats to crash the market as it increases their chance to take the Whitehouse in 2020.

    If you are saying the system is politically neutral and 2007 and 2008 “credit crisis” had nothing to date with the Presidential Election cycle, that’s just naive.

    Did you not read the quote that I posted earlier? These same banksters use the two-party system to divide and conquer the little people, arguing over things like abortion and a wall, whilst power and wealth is concentrated at the top. It’s equally naive to not understand this, but most don’t because they don’t want to believe the ugly truth.

    What nonsense! Don’t you know how many banksters Obama put in jail? Eric Holder was a real tiger, there, oh boy. And look at the hard time Tim Geithner gave them fraudsters. No bailouts for those bad actors. Two-tiered justice system! What gibberish!

  57. 307
    northender says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 306
    And remember how the administration made sure the bankers who caused the crisis had to pay back all the money they made, including their bonuses that were awarded after the meltdown! Goldman Sachs alums were also disallowed from ever taking a role at the Federal Reserve!

  58. 308

    Trump Averts a Government Shutdown Today?

    And gets his $5B WALL anyway? That’s the difference between a businessman and an attorney politician; the attorney seeks bill after bill failures with lots of attorney fees added to federal deficit. They never think out of the box and rarely succeed. Nope, trying to stop Trump with “Monotony Rules” would be like trying to stop a raging bull with a red scarf…he invents other ways no one used before….no wonder the “attorney bent” establishment hates his guts…LOL

    BTW, downtown Seattle has more attorneys in two of its sky scrapers that the whole island of Japan….LOL….no wonder we’re in this mess.

    We need robots replacing attorneys desperately now?

  59. 309

    RE: redmondjp @ 251
    Yes redmondjp

    Don’t trust any MPG automobile allegation from an owner….its likely incorrect [way too low] for your drive anyway…rent it. Friendlier neighbors outside of “grumpy Seattle rain and high prices” is only proven by living in both places for comparison. Its obvious then. Use your own raw data.

  60. 310

    Chinese Globalism Hates Merry Christmas?

    LOL…but manufactures almost all the Christmas toys with prison labor wages anyway?

    http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2018/december/christians-standing-in-the-way-of-chinas-xi-jinpings-totalitarian-rule

    The real China is getting exposed for what it really is now? In my book, the problems in China make the similar concerns of Russia look small in comparison.

  61. 311
    Unknown says:

    SWE typing and hyperlinking into the void… maybe you’ll hear your own echo and think someone cared

  62. 312
    Justme says:

    That’s too harsh. If it is only a couple of comments a day, and for whatever reason you find them not interesting, just skip over them.

  63. 313
    Unknown says:

    RE: Justme @ 312
    Our country is infested by SWE’s who would love for you to agree with their misinformed opinions. Ignoring an error is a courtesy. Ignoring a flagrant stream of propaganda is senseless.

  64. 314
    uwp says:

    Job search company “Indeed” (headquartered in the exclusive Austin, TX) just announced a lease of 200,000 square feet of 2+U, the new 38 story building under construction in Seattle. Room for 1,000 additional employees.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/indeed-scoops-huge-new-office-space-showing-indeed-one-fastest-growing-companies-seattle/

    But wait, I can hear it already…

    This is actually bad news for Seattle that Indeed didn’t announce they were abandoning their Austin office and immediately relocating all employees worldwide to Seattle. A real sad announcement for the city of Seattle. Would the last one to leave please turn out the lights?

  65. 315
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 314

    From the linked article

    QUOTE: “Though we still see that salary is a key factor candidates consider when evaluating an offer, we also see candidates caring more about job location, work flexibility, a good work environment, and meaningful work,” Mukherjee said.

    Translation: The pay at Indeed sucks, but we rent in a cool-looking building!

    QUOTE: One example of those extra mile perks is called Indeed University. The program gives new hires the opportunity to “build and launch startups within Indeed in their first days at the company,” Mukherjee said.

    LOL. Indeed must be really desperate for employees if their schtick is that new employees get to start their own startup inside the company. A job search company, what kind of startup would fit within that framework? A dogwalking app? And what about the existing employees, do they already have a startup within Indeed? So who is going to be doing real work for the company? Jobs, indeed.

  66. 316
    npeterson5068 says:

    By redmondjp @ 304:


    It’s equally naive to not understand this, but most don’t because they don’t want to believe the ugly truth.

    It could also be because there’s no real proof of it. So just another conspiracy. And because something can exist doesn’t mean it actually does.

    Claiming someone is naive because they don’t believe your conspiracy seems a bit hypocritical.

  67. 317
    Market Psychologist says:

    Another rate hike tomorrow, and another market selloff. Stock market is negative YoY after modest rates hikes, proving that it was all based on funny money. Turns out business is hard when you can’t borrow your way to ever higher valuations.

    All you people busy counting the tech workers’ money should start to wake up. So many of these “companies” are dependent on constant injections of cash to reach the promised land of a market monopoly. That’s just no way to run a railroad. I think this will be the story of Amazon, ultimately. History will look back and laugh at our foolishness.

  68. 318
    Notme says:

    Powell will speak
    asset prices normalize
    wall st babies cry

    -a bubble haiku

  69. 319
    Matt P says:

    By uwp @ 314:

    Job search company “Indeed” (headquartered in the exclusive Austin, TX) just announced a lease of 200,000 square feet of 2+U, the new 38 story building under construction in Seattle. Room for 1,000 additional employees.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/indeed-scoops-huge-new-office-space-showing-indeed-one-fastest-growing-companies-seattle/

    But wait, I can hear it already…

    This is actually bad news for Seattle that Indeed didn’t announce they were abandoning their Austin office and immediately relocating all employees worldwide to Seattle. A real sad announcement for the city of Seattle. Would the last one to leave please turn out the lights?

    What’s the value add of this company? All they do is aggregate job postings. Can’t imagine they are bringing in a lot of high value jobs.

  70. 320
    Justme says:

    Population update.

    I’d be laughing my ass off about how utterly wrong the “look-at-the-population-increase” bubble-monger propaganda has been, if it was not for all the damage the propaganda has done to all renters and workers that would have liked to buy a home at an un-manipulated price rather than a wildly inflated speculative bubble price.

    https://twitter.com/ByRosenberg/status/1075106094995759107

    The real news in the referenced story/data is how much smaller the real population change is compared to the wildly inflated Washington OFM “Filled-If-Built” (FIB) data that is based on counting new housing units built, and ASSUMING that said housing units have been filled with people.

    Then again, readers that have been following me for the past several years already would know about the utter wrongness of the OFM FIB data.

  71. 321
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justme @ 320 – Very interesting data…

    “The Census Bureau estimates that 143,088 total new residents moved to King County between 2012 and 2016. That number combines people moving from foreign countries, people moving from other U.S. states, and Washington itself.” – Peter Johnson (emphasis mine)

    “Including the counterflow migration (people moving from King County to Silicon Valley), King County really only gained a net 244 people from that area…The estimates show 5,158 people from Silicon Valley moving up to King County, and 4,914 people moving from King to Silicon Valley during the same time period. ” – RSO

    “If I’m reading the numbers correctly, there was a net migration out of King county to the surrounding counties in the Puget Sound.” – tktk

    Something isn’t right because 143,088 – 100,000+(?) in 5 years would not have created this much traffic congestions in the area. Perhaps we should look at utility usage to gauge population growth when there is no reliable data. LOL.

  72. 322
    Blake says:

    Wow… the big money DUMPED commodities today.
    Oil dropped almost 8%… EIGHT percent!
    Copper tanked 3.7% … mostly in the last hour of trading.
    The smart money is running to safety.

    This is an excellent article… I highly recommend taking 4 or 5 minutes to read it. I’ll include a few key paragraphs…
    https://qz.com/1497244/yield-curve-inversion-isnt-the-best-sign-of-a-looming-recession/

    A new study pinpoints an even more accurate indicator: peaks in financial cycles. Since the early 1980s, the reversal of financial booms — and not central bank tightening to control inflation — has triggered recessions more often than not, according to a paper by Claudio Borio, head of the Bank for International Settlements.

    (I note: The BIS is the central banks’ central bank… serious folks! They are very concerned about the last recession/depression because THEY DIDN’T TRIGGER IT!!)

    Financial flows move in cycles: from boom periods, when easy money begets more easy money, driving up asset prices until something prompts investors en masse to doubt those values. The subsequent collapse wipes out wealth, ripping holes in corporate and household balance balance sheets in a way that can deepen and prolong ordinary end-of-business-cycle contractions.

    This means trends in debt and other financial-cycle indicators, like property prices, should be watched because recent history shows “even if inflation did not raise its ugly head, a downturn could take place,” said Borio in remarks announcing this and other BIS research.

    (It’s simple…) An increasing abundance of credit drives up asset prices; that rise in collateral value encourages even more lending. This process keeps whipping up more and more froth until, suddenly, the interaction reverses. Credit disappears, liquidity seizes up, and borrowing costs rise, pulling the cycle into the bust phase.

    (nut ‘graph): For advanced economies, the financial-cycle proxies proved better than the yield curve at predicting recessions one and two years away. In addition, unlike the term spread, the financial-cycle proxies anticipated recessions at a statistically significant level even three years before the downturn hit.
    (fin)

    Hold on!!!

  73. 323
    Saffy The Pook says:

    By Ardell @ 303:

    RE: redmondjp @ 299

    My Trump comment was a joke about the media coverage, which is laughably inaccurate.

    I do however firmly believe that the 2 parties make every effort to distort to their advantage. But the distortion will increasingly be from the Democrats to crash the market as it increases their chance to take the Whitehouse in 2020.

    If you are saying the system is politically neutral and 2007 and 2008 “credit crisis” had nothing to date with the Presidential Election cycle, that’s just naive.

    Do you seriously believe that the Dems want to see a market crash and are actively working to make it happen? I don’t think that passes the smell test. First of all, Trump is doing a great job all by himself of making it happen without any help from the Dems. Why would they risk getting blamed for the destruction of trillions of dollars in market value when they can sit by and watch the Repubs take the hit? Second, the market is a huge source of wealth that goes towards, wait for it, campaign contributions. Nose/face. Third, every single member of congress regardless of party is heavily invested in the market themselves.

    Don’t get me wrong, the Dems would happily “not let a good crisis go to waste” but taking political advantage of a crash is a far cry from causing one. I’m surprised to have heard this from you, Ardell. You’re generally much more levelheaded and you’re one of a handfull of posters here that I bother to read because I can actually learn something from.

  74. 324

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 323
    Yes Sally

    Most Populists call it the Mueller Witch Hunt because its all political and not about Russian Collusion at all; simultaneous attacks against the stock market [on purpose or coincidental?] is suggested now by many Populists. The Mueller case history proves my point. IMO, collusion is a business practice everyone delves into for globalism trade. What is collusion?

    We spent $150B bribery on our HORRIFYING enemy Iran, but can’t build a $25B security wall for our own border, because it costs too much? The government failed grade school Arithmetic 101? Ineffective spending, the wall is wasteful? How about this wild allegation for Seattle Real Estate…higher interest rates are good for borrowers??? LOL…word parcing is such a joke and so much efforts are falsely wasted on it IMO, especially with no evidence or data presented by opposition. The wall supporters have evidence…the caravan…the Open Border Party [OBP] ignores the danger as moot? Who’s right? Its all a political fight with no brains or reinforcing data attached. No wonder math and science went down the toilet in America….its a political enemy to the rich elite?

  75. 325

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 323

    Understand, I am only saying Democrats because we have a Republican President. As you said “Don’t get me wrong, the Dems would happily “not let a good crisis go to waste” but taking political advantage of a crash is a far cry from causing one. ” and the same holds true in reverse.

    Markets are not controllable, but we do apply many methods to determine what we expect to happen. Then the market performs as expected or underperforms or defies expectation. There are many interpretations of Presidential Election Cycle Theory, and some don’t espouse it at all. But if we are in a Dead Cat Bounce, and direction is not fully determined at this point, the expectation would be that we will stay in that mode or succumb to the final round of Death Crosses moving toward the 2020 Election.

    More often the 8 Year Presidential Cycle is the strongest, but this 4 year cycle should see the same pressure to oust Trump as one would see in an 8 year cycle to switch parties.

    “Don’t get me wrong, the Dems would happily “not let a good crisis go to waste” but taking political advantage of a crash is a far cry from causing one.” I agree that pushing someone off a cliff may not be the same as not putting out a hand to try to catch them from falling off the cliff, but the end result is the same.

    There is much written on what is expected in the Financial Markets following an election, but when the decline running into the election is strongest (like the DOW dropping by 50% from 9/2007 to Obama’s Inauguration), that is still Presidential Election Cycle Theory.

    You expect the markets to under perform and even tank going into an election campaign. Markets don’t always do what you expect and whether the non-incumbent party causes it or simply doesn’t assist it is irrelevant. It’s not a blame game. It’s a market expectation. The forces will be working at odds in order to “take advantage” if you like that terminology better. Same difference really if we are talking markets and not politics.

  76. 326
    Notme says:

    Iran! Russia! Brexit!
    any distraction will do
    look in the mirror

    -a bubble haiku

  77. 327

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 325

    The DOW was 13,820 on 7/21/2007 and dropped to 6,626 by 3/6/2009. The Presidential Cycle Theory focuses more on what happens in the first and second years of the new President’s term. But the expectation of down running through the campaign is pretty much set in stone. Whether or not that actually happens = down…performed as expected. Flat or up would be the unexpected.

    So yes, I expect the market to continue down given there are loud forces on one side and quiet forces on both sides that would like to see this President replaced. Anything can happen, but so far the markets are performing as expected and should continue downward even though a Dead Cat Bounce will repeatedly happen until the force is too strong to sustain any short blips of recovery.

    The headlines are already saying “Fed may be saying goodbye to ‘artificially low rates’ and bringing in new hikes” without regard to politics. But politics are always in the room. Not the only consideration, but never absent either.

  78. 328
    Justme says:

    Jerome Powell just said 3 minutes ago (paraphrased) that QE-unwind (QT) will continue on autopilot, and that monetary policy will be conducted through the short term interest rate and ***not** via QE or any changes to QE-unwind plans.

    Translation: Mortgage interest rates will continue to rise.

    Powell also strongly asserted his independence from the executive branch (the president), in not so many words.

  79. 329
    SeaMillie says:

    RE: Justme @ 328

    The 10Y is rallying and the Fed has no control over that duration, and that’s what mortgages are priced off of. This 50bps rally (so far) is based on expectations of lower growth and lower inflation (look at oil trading below $50/barrel, core inflation below 2%). I expect the 10 year to rally from here. Here’s whats more important on the bearish side:

    POWELL: POLICY DOESN’T NEED TO BE ACCOMMODATIVE, CAN BE NEUTRAL
    POWELL: AMOUNT OF BALANCE-SHEET RUNOFF HAS BEEN SMALL SO FAR

    Stocks that have meaningless future growth forecasts without real current profits (tech outside of MSFT, AAPL, and maybe AMZN if they can grow margins) are going to get wrecked. Risk assets that have been inflated solely through easy monetary policy will be crushed. I fully expect a new round of QE once we go into recession. The fiscal bullet we had (outside of potential infrastructure) was used last year…

  80. 330
    sfrz says:

    Buyers are still here, but not willing to pay these casino prices. No thanks greedy sellers and banksters. Keep building those luxury air boxes, boys. Just sitting here on the sidelines, eating popcorn.

    “The western U.S. is enduring an especially precipitous housing slowdown, reflecting affordability challenges in markets including Seattle and San Francisco. Existing-home sales in the West declined 15.4% in November from a year earlier.”

    “In the West, ‘The buyers have disappeared; inventory is sitting on the market,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Prices there may soon start falling, he said, which could be a relief for buyers but could cause panic among sellers.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-existing-home-sales-rose-in-november-from-october-but-fell-from-a-year-ago-11545231917

  81. 331
    sfrz says:

    The bubble keeps rising, until it doesn’t. Down goes Frazier! Boom.

    “In cities like Seattle, the rent has indeed gotten too damn high — so high, in fact, that prices have flattened.

    Rent prices in Seattle, the original home of Amazon AMZN, -3.85% increased by just 0.3% in October — down from nearly 4% a year ago, according to a new report released by global real-estate data firm CoreLogic CLGX, -2.80% That represents the slowest pace of rent growth for Seattle since May 2010.”
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-some-of-the-countrys-most-expensive-cities-rent-prices-are-starting-to-do-something-unexpected-2018-12-19

  82. 332
    Mark says:

    RE: sfrz @ 329

    Yes. I’ll say it again: you would have to be completely nuts to buy a home right now.

    You can’t even start to talk about what reasonable home prices are without talking about the effect 0% interest rate policy has had on home prices for close to a decade. When borrowing money is that cheap, prices will inflate to account for the increased ability to borrow. This pushed prices up to the maximal amount that could be afforded in 2017. Some FBs then became emotional, chased the trend and overpaid by hundreds of thousands of dollars in ill-advised bidding wars.

    But, the era of cheap credit is ending: the FFR is going up to 2.5% today with a projected increase to 3.0% by the end of 2019. Couple this with the very strong possibility of a US recession in the next two years and you’re looking at home price declines for several (many?) years to come as deleveraging occurs and prices correct to something approximating historical norms.

    If you own a home, this spring/summer will be the last good exit point. If you’re a first time home buyer, rent modestly and save. Good deals are coming in a few years.

  83. 333
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 319

    I just got a notice from CBRE, one of the largest commercial brokerages. Looking at just the Seattle market (not the East Side)
    ______________

    Commercial square footage delivered in the last 3 years (’16, 17, 18) was 5,900,000 sf.
    Commercial square footage to be delivered in the next 2 years (’19, 20) to be 7,100,000 sf.

    Employees added for that square footage estimated for last 3 years (’16, 17, 18) = 33, 714
    Employees added for that square footage estimated for next 2years (’19, 20) = 40,571

    2019 – 2020 Major Tech Tenant Deliveries for the Seattle Market
    Amazon 2,900,000
    Facebook 976,000
    Google 646, 000

    CBRE TAKEAWAY
    Building upon Seattle’s incredible run of employment growth, Google, Facebook and now Apple all have announced major expansions in downtown Seattle. And this is all in addition to Amazon’s on-going appetite.

    In the next two years, another 7.1 million square feet of office space will be delivered in downtown Seattle, creating capacity for more than 40,000 jobs based on the industry standard one employee per 175 SF. Over 83% of the space is already committed by the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Google. Those three companies alone will have the capacity to contribute 25,000 jobs in Downtown Seattle by 2020.
    ______________

    Could some of this be put on hold if there is a recession? Of course. But if you add in Apple, Indeed and Expedia, it is clear you will see a substantial amount of growth in the Seattle market in the near term. During that same period, I think that you will also see as much or more growth on the East Side than in Seattle.

    We are picking up momentum, not losing it. More growth in the next two years, most likely, than during the past three years put together.

    I do not believe all of these people will want to live in apartments or even condos. Some of these folks will want to have kids, dogs, etc. and want to have a house with a yard, esp near to downtown, SLU and Fremont.

    You can call this cheerleading if you like. But I am a pretty conservative guy and plan to stay very lean during the next two years. I am thoroughly aware that there is plenty to be pessimistic about from here until early 2021 (interest rates, the stock market, the mess in Washington DC and the likelihood of investigations, indictments, impeachment etc.)

  84. 334
    Unknown says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 332

    None of the ongoing design projects in my office are being put in the drawer, but those of us who survived the last recession are starting to give each other the side-eye. Cancelling expansion plans, even from companies committed to growth, will happen in a flash and without much warning when it eventually does happen.

  85. 335
    Lurker says:

    Deerhawke,

    Thank for your all your posts. They are always helpful. I’m a lurker here and read every one of your comments along with a few others (like Ardell), as they offer and meaningful perspective from people with real world experience and context.

    Lately I’ve found myself having to skip more comments from those with poor sentence structure and general lack of overall cohesive thought. It seems as if they are so focused on being “right” they only focus on negative data, with limited objectivity or willingness to see counter points.

    IMO, in the short-term there will be noise and perhaps (likely?) downside, but overall picture still looks bullish for this part of the country on a time frame of 2+ years

  86. 336
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Unknown @ 333 – Thanks for the honest feedback, Unknown. People seem to forget how quickly things can change.

  87. 337
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 332

    The expansion picture of Amazon may not be so rosy as you wish.
    Amazon is starting to cut CRAP (see link below) to boost profit as Investors are demanding more profits from this company. Amazon’s most profitable business is AWS and which is quite independent on his e-commerce business. Amazon will continue to cut loss from less profitable e-commerce business to grow AWS, which needs a lot of capital for cloud infrastructure build-up.
    To keep AMZN share float , Amazon will slow down its expansion or even cut its workforce. Large scale buyout such as wholefood wont happen so often due to rising interest rate. It is not sustainable for amazon to inflate its share by growing bigger and bigger.

    https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/17/amazon-declares-war-on-loss-making-crap/

  88. 338
    Matt P says:

    12 month and 5 year treasuries are equal right now. 2 and 5 are inverted again. 2 and 10 are closest to being inverted as they have gotten.

    The wallstreet cry babies got put in their place again today.

  89. 339
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Mark @ 331 – Yeah, if you just REALLY feel like you want to buy for non-financial reasons (getting your kids into a certain school district or something), then I guess you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do. But I think one should have their eyes wide open to the fact that financially speaking, buying is not going to be the best way to go anymore. Could end up being anywhere from mildly to severely financially detrimental.

  90. 340
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 332

    >>Employees added for that square footage estimated for last 3 years (’16, 17, 18) = 33, 714
    >>Employees added for that square footage estimated for next 2years (’19, 20) = 40,571

    This is pure speculation and hype. Someone just divided 5,900,000 by 175 and got 33, 714. This is the same old faulty Filled-If-Built methodology that Washington OFM is using to guesstimate population increases. That is, assuming that if an office is built it must be occupied, and by NEW jobs, which may not be the case.

    WTF is “tenant deliveries”? Does it mean a signed lease, or just a lease option, or even a letter of intent? If it really is a lease signed, them why don’t they say so?

    Who is accounting for expiring leases — that is, how much of this office space is just consolidation of other offices? Nobody. Is there are comprehensive analysis of announced headcount expansion? Nope. All in all, this is just fluff, propaganda and REIC happy-talk.

    >>Those three companies alone will have the capacity to contribute 25,000 jobs in Downtown Seattle by 2020.

    “Have capacity”, possibly, unless they are just also moving employees to a different building. Moreover, “have capacity” does

    Is there an MLS for commercial property? That would be better than the junk data that comes from CRBE and other places. We don’t even get to see the original article, that’s how bad it is.

  91. 341
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 333

    >>Employees added for that square footage estimated for last 3 years (’16, 17, 18) = 33, 714
    >>Employees added for that square footage estimated for next 2years (’19, 20) = 40,571

    Oh, and by the way, Amazon Seattle headcount is about 45k as of 2018/05/23. Does anyone think it is even remotely close to realistic that Amazon, Facebook and Google have added or will add another 1.65X Amazons (*) during 2016-2020? This is just delusional. What are people smoking? And, please don’t come back and say “well okay maybe the numbers are too optimistic but since these numbers are so big then blah blah blah there must be something to it.”

    (*) 74285/45000 = 1.65077777777778

    Reference:
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazons-employee-count-declines-for-first-time-since-2009/

  92. 342
    Eastsider says:

    FB stock is down almost 40% from peak. It will soon be scrambling to keep its employees. Don’t count on their headcount to grow in 2019-2020.

  93. 343
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 342

    In comparison, Amazon is down a “mere” 27%. But then Amazon has not had any public scandals. Yet :-). A company the size of Amazon must have some yet unknown dirty secrets, must they not?

    (*) 1495.08/2050.5 = 0.729129480614484

  94. 344

    Lots of Differing Opinions

    But yesterday’s 0.25% Treasury Fed Chairman hikes likely add-on to the already higher mortgage loans in Seattle is horrifying news, its non-partisan talk too, everyone is jittery. Since the Open Border Party (OBP) controlled the House [and during the WALL defunding] the stocks have gone on a tail spin to Recession?

    Populists and OBP MSM both agree on this issue [Populists Tea Party, OBP Wash Post:

    https://www.teaparty.org/fed-chair-screws-america-crashes-market-announces-new-rate-hike-dow-plunges-720-points-338017/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/19/federal-reserve-hikes-interest-rates-cuts-its-outlook-us-economy/?utm_term=.ac48d615f184&wpisrc=al_news__alert-economy–alert-national&wpmk=1

    The difference is OBP blames Trump’s growth in Wash Post, Tea Party blames OBP control of House. Why is growth bad? LOL….they turn the stock collapse they both hate into a political name game…

    The Dec MOM economic data will give much more clues for 2019.

  95. 345
    Matt P says:

    By softwarengineer @ 344:

    Lots of Differing Opinions

    But yesterday’s 0.25% Treasury Fed Chairman hikes likely add-on to the already higher mortgage loans in Seattle is horrifying news, its non-partisan talk too, everyone is jittery. Since the Open Border Party (OBP) controlled the House [and during the WALL defunding] the stocks have gone on a tail spin to Recession?

    Populists and OBP MSM both agree on this issue [Populists Tea Party, OBP Wash Post:

    https://www.teaparty.org/fed-chair-screws-america-crashes-market-announces-new-rate-hike-dow-plunges-720-points-338017/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/19/federal-reserve-hikes-interest-rates-cuts-its-outlook-us-economy/?utm_term=.ac48d615f184&wpisrc=al_news__alert-economy–alert-national&wpmk=1

    The difference is OBP blames Trump’s growth in Wash Post, Tea Party blames OBP control of House. Why is growth bad? LOL….they turn the stock collapse they both hate into a political name game…

    The Dec MOM economic data will give much more clues for 2019.

    You do realize that Republicans are in charge of the house until Jan 3 right?

  96. 346
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 345:

    You do realize that Republicans are in charge of the house until Jan 3 right?

    I think SWE is the one who thinks Obama caused the 08 recession.

  97. 347
    SeaMillie says:

    RE: SeaMillie @ 329

    This morning:

    SQ off 7.08%
    SHOP off 8.27%
    SNAP off 7.31%
    NFLX off 4.18%

    All money losing bubble stocks I referenced in my previous post. The era of easy money is ending unless we get a reversal from the Fed. AWS depends a good amount on revenue from these kind of companies…

  98. 348

    RE: uwp @ 346
    No I Don’t

    Bush Caused it and Clinton Contributed

    I voted Nader in 08.

  99. 349

    Cramer and Trump Agree Now?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/cramer-fed-rate-hikes-widen-wealth-gap-by-hurting-working-americans.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    Sounds like the shutdown is now alive and kicking tomorrow?…the WALL supporters are horrified and Trump is listening? Short Stock traders mouths are salivating over the uncertainty of stock shifts?

    Your political affiliation is becoming moot?

  100. 350
    uwp says:

    By softwarengineer @ 348:

    RE: uwp @ 346
    No I Don’t

    Bush Caused it and Clinton Contributed

    I voted Nader in 08.

    I apologize, maybe it was David?

  101. 351

    RE: uwp @ 350
    I Know UWP

    I get the two Davids mixed up too…LOL…thanks for your honesty.

    Real Social Security increases [without Medicare Part B increase costs grabbing almost all of it] for 2019 helping Seattle economy? It kicks in at 2.8% this January. Not a bunch of zero COLAs from Obama. Ask anyone on Social Security…they love Trump now….LOL

    Hey, higher interest rates add to my loot too, I’m not in debt. I’m not haughty about that fact, but there is a good from any negative.

    I vote my pocket book, doesn’t everyone? More Silver Haired consumers spending their loot? Its all good.

  102. 352
    BacktoBasics says:

    The labor cost is so inflated. Material cost is also inflated due to global trade. I did bathroom remodel this year and can’t believe the total cost. Though interest is up but still below history norm. So I would predict Seattle housing will slow down to 4-5% YOY or just in par with inflation for a number of years.

  103. 353
    Momentum says:

    “The Dow and S&P 500, which are both in correction territory, are on track for their worst December performance since the Great Depression in 1931, down more than 8 percent and 9 percent, respectively. The S&P 500 is now in the red for 2018 by 6.3 percent”

  104. 354

    RE: Momentum @ 353
    Yet This is Happening With 3.5% GDP Growth?

    We’re in a new paradigm, the old analysis doesn’t work with less spending bills to the banksters.

    Hey, Pelosi and Schumer made a deal in 2016 with Trump, they got DACA funding and Trump got its WALL funding, then they changed their mind and eliminated the border security and defunded DACA. Hades, fair is fair…Trump changes his mind on government shutdown meetings with the Open Border Party (OBP)…LOL

    Don’t ever play chess with Trump, you’ll lose.

  105. 355
    Joe says:

    Things are unfolding exactly as I’ve been predicting the last six months. Stocks are going down, and Seattle real estate is following.

    Now we see Amazon testing 1400’s again on the downside for the second time. We also see that Amazon’s employee count has shrunk from last year. This is not good for the Seattle housing market, as Amazon has been a major factor driving the growth.

    Market sentiment has shifted. People are selling on the rips. Panicked Seattle RE buyers have left the market which is why housing inventory is rising by triple digit percentages year over year.

    These trends don’t reverse quickly. As another poster indicated, it could be a few years before it makes sense to buy a house. Buyers of $1M properties this summer are already down over $100k in six months. Ouch. More pain coming unfortunately for homeowners.

  106. 356
    Deerhawke says:

    By Unknown @ 334:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 332

    None of the ongoing design projects in my office are being put in the drawer, but those of us who survived the last recession are starting to give each other the side-eye. Cancelling expansion plans, even from companies committed to growth, will happen in a flash and without much warning when it eventually does happen.

    RE: Unknown @ 334

    Thanks for the interesting post.

    You are completely right. Generally Seattle is late to the recession party. But then just about the time that people start saying that maybe Seattle will get off scott free. Wham!

    The other side of the equation is similar. People talk about the recovery for a long time, but there is no lift-off. Every bit of weird economic news is blamed for the stalled economy. And then about the time you are about to give up, everybody is buying like crazy. And all that inventory that has been sitting forever is all suddenly gone in a couple of weeks.

    It is herd behavior. No telling how to predict why or when the herd will turn.

  107. 357
    Blurtman says:

    RE: northender @ 307 – Recall that the execs at AIG who bankrupted the company, were to be paid their bonuses at the insistence of Obama’s man, Tim Geithner. And recall the illegal bailout of AIG, at the behest of former Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson, who rescued his former employer’s chestnuts from the fire of a possible AIG bankruptcy. And Paulson himself headed up Goldman Sachs when they committed fraud of such magnitude that they agreed to a record settlement with the USG to settle the matter, and yet became the US Treasury head in this banana republic.

    Most Americans are dumb as shyte and happy to have the yoke around their necks as long as they get fed.

  108. 358
    Erik says:

    King county inventory is below 3000 and Seattle plans to build lots of office space in the next 2 years. Things could get cancelled and we have a recession, but we have a president that just wants to make money for America.

    Low inventory, high growth, and leadership that knows how to make more money makes it seem like the chances are that seattle real estate will keep going up in price.

  109. 359
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 358

    Wow, Erik is going fully delusional with his latest missive.

    Yo, Erik, the KC SFH active inventory is at a SEASONAL low, but as of last week it was still >2X the value it had last year same week. Probably will stay that way this week, too. Maybe tomorrow you’ll see. Oh, and take a look at the Condo inventory. It has been over 3X what it was last year for a while now.

    Yo, Erik, recessions do not happen because a US president no longer “wants to make money for America”.

    Yo, Erik, KC Median price is already down 11% and likely more by now. Median price has been dropping since April or so.

  110. 360
    JustSomeDude says:

    By Blurtman @ 357:

    Most Americans are dumb as shyte and happy to have the yoke around their necks as long as they get fed.

    I see these phrasings quite a bit. But I haven’t found a consensus on what ‘most’ actually means and how anyone knows this. Hopefully you can enlighten me: What percentage of the American population = most? How were you able to determine this many Americans were dumb? Was it research you conducted or someone else? Can you send me the link to the results and survey tool? The results could be an interesting graph to create. Were you able to determine any of these answers: What jobs are these dumb people doing if any? Are they consolidated in certain areas across America or does it seem consistent across every state and all cities? Is it just registered citizens? Are temporary visitors or travelers included in the studies or your research that determined this? How is this dumbness broken down across various categories: Are there certain ages, genders, races, economic backgrounds, careers, educational backgrounds, politics that are the most dumb? What are they?

    Also – is this dumbness hereditary? Is it permanent or temporary? How can someone stop being dumb? Were you dumb at one time and now aren’t or were you able to avoid it all together? If you avoided it how were you able to do that? Can dumb people access the internet and this blog? – if so maybe they could take your advice and stop being dumb.

  111. 361
    Joe says:

    Amazon is trying hard to get back down in the 1300’s. It’s down today while everything else is up. Perhaps the market is reading clues from the UK, where retail has fallen apart lately. Or, maybe consumers feel poorer lately, because of stock market and compensation drops. In any case, however, local Seattle inhabitants are realizing that future Amazon hiring will be focused on Washington and New York, not Seattle. This will cause a continuation of Seattle RE price drops.

    The other tech companies won’t be in any position to fill the void. Facebook stock is dropping like a rock as their entire business model is being questioned. What happened to that office they were going to open in Redmond? Seems it may have been put on hold. Google’s model is under fire as well. In the EU they just paid a $5B anti-trust penalty. Plus, they must change their model, which means it will be less lucrative.

    And I suspect Microsoft may be announcing layoffs pretty soon, which it does proactively BEFORE every slowdown. Earnings per share must be preserved at all costs. Microsoft has been profitable, but it’s customers are now under pressure. Stocks for 50% of S&P companies are down 20% or more. Many are down more than 40%. These old industry customers are now conserving cash and will not be pursuing their cloud conversions nearly as quickly.

    Want to know where local RE is headed? Just watch the stock market trends. Stocks lead, RE follows. This is because corporate earnings performance directly impacts job growth and wealth.

  112. 362

    RE: Blurtman @ 357
    That’s Part of the Trump Chess Strategy Too Blurtman

    Throw the “rule book” away and do it completely different. I wondered what Trump’s campaign promise to trim the banksters’ Hedge Funds meant…now we know. Their portfolios are hanging over the Trump trash can fire for possible shutdown destruction…yeah, its simultaneously anomalous against Seattle Real Estate too, Trump doesn’t care, its his promises made, promises kept logo. When have we ever had a President keep all his promises? LOL

    Hey Erik, you just ruffled some feathers in the blog with your left field bull real estate market in Seattle comment…LOL…I sure love the wide range of opinions by the Bubbleheads…excellent job all! Merry Christmas to all too!

  113. 363

    RE: Joe @ 361
    Amazon Has the Open Border Party (OBP) to Worry About Now

    Cortez hates Amazon’s guts…I don’t think Bernie likes AMZ either….

    I agree with them on this issue, AMZ should be prohibited from getting bribe tax breaks for moving their HQs to another location….its likely unconstitutional in my book.

  114. 364
    Matt P says:

    You Trump pumpers are nuts. How has he actually helped anyone make money but himself? Stock market is tanking, debt is on the rise and the only thing anyone got out of the tax breaks was boosts to the top 1%. Everyone else got nothing or some peanuts. Any other economic effects were just a continuation of the recovery that has been going several years.

    I don’t think Amazon’s stock price matters to them about whether they hire or not though. It might affect the Seattle housing market by lower stock grants coming to maturity, but Amazon will continue hiring or not based on the actual economy. No definitive conclusion yet on whether it has turned.

  115. 365
    Joe says:

    RE: Matt P @ 364

    Lower Amazon stock price means earnings projections are being reduced. Lower earnings means less hiring, and maybe some layoffs. The stock market and the companies always look ahead. The market is in the process of pricing in a recession.

  116. 366
    Matt P says:

    By Joe @ 365:

    RE: Matt P @ 364

    Lower Amazon stock price means earnings projections are being reduced. Lower earnings means less hiring, and maybe some layoffs. The stock market and the companies always look ahead. The market is in the process of pricing in a recession.

    I would agree for a normal company, but Amazon isn’t normal. Their earnings never justified their stock price. It was all just hype. Now it is coming back to reality, but their earnings remain the same as far as I can tell – nothing on the retail side and a huge amount on the AWS side.

  117. 367
    Andy Terentjev says:

    Stock market is telling us a recession is coming faster than we think. And this negative wealth affect will create even larger drops in over valued real estate markets like Seattle. Oil was a great indicator of the Great Recession all markets collapse, and look at that collapse. Good luck and if you are in mostly cash, we may see asset buying opportunities faster than any one anticipate. Hello BLACK SWAN.

  118. 368
    richard says:

    Amazon’s stock will tank more with shrinking wealth effect.
    Amazon’s e-commerce business model is to achieve monopoly by starving other retail business by aggressively subsidize customers.
    Jeff bezos’s famous quote -“There are two kinds of companies, those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second.” is a simply a strategy to achieve monopoly in every retail and service business. Aggressively subsidize customers, driven competitor out of business, continue to expand and increase the topline without concern of loss, when you achieve monopoly you are the winner. this is the theme of Amazon of last 20+ years. This story will not continue in 2019 with higher borrowing cost and shrinking consumer confidence.

  119. 369
    QA Observer says:

    Remember the old adage bulls said back in ‘13, “Buy now or be priced out forever!”. Or wait was it, “Sell now or get left holding the bag!”. I always get confused…

  120. 370
    Blake says:

    Hmmm…
    “U.S. stocks sank to a 17-month low to close out their worst week since August 2011, with every sector losing ground and heavy selling in technology shares driving the Nasdaq indexes into a bear market. Treasuries edged higher.

    Some 27 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges Thursday and Friday, the most for any two-day period in seven years. Trading this week was 40 percent higher than the average before Christmases going back to 2008. The holiday spirit has been replaced by panic.”

    Hmmm… The S&P fell over 13% in just over 3 weeks and the NASDAQ is down almost 20% Since late October! Of course AMZN is down over 30% from it’s peak…

    Hmmm…

  121. 371
    Joe says:

    RE: Joe @ 361

    As it turns out, Amazon did rally down to the 1300’s today. Amazon truly is the low price King.

    Microsoft brought it’s own misery to the wealth reduction party, closing solidly below $100. With that psychological barrier broken, things could accelerate down from here. Microsoft must drop some more to catch up with Amazon, Apple, and Facebook. People will sell stocks that have gone down the least (i.e., MSFT), so they can buy more of the losers (FB, AMZN, Apple). It’s human nature.

    I wonder if Seattle real estate lost another 2% this week, given all the local stock market wealth that vaporized. I hope people took my advice to stay clear of this RE market six months ago. There’s still time though. I’d say we are only in the 4th inning of this stock and RE price route. I expect things could go sideways for a bit before they drop some more, so it will take some time (perhaps 1-3 years) to discover the bottom.

  122. 372
    redmondjp says:

    You want to know how crazy things are at the federal government? Today, our managers found out that our part of our agency actually has enough funds to operate through next Wednesday at midnight, but another part of the agency is shut down (non-essential only) as of midnight tonight. So even within one federal agency, we don’t even have the same shutdown implementation dates between divisions.

    So I get Monday off, thanks to Trump who declared it a paid holiday (Federal workers don’t get a second vacation day with most major holidays like they typically do in the private world), and then of course Christmas is a paid holiday, and then Wednesday I go back to work.

    And then Thursday, should the shutdown still be in effect, I have to go in to work in order to perform what is called an “orderly shutdown,” and then come back home. What is really sad is that the private construction workers and contractors that actually do our projects for us, cannot come to work during the shutdown. Thus, they are entitled to damages for project delay from the government, which can be tens of thousands of dollars per day on a moderate size project. So in this respect, the shutdown actually costs the taxpayers more money, because we are paying people and not getting anything in return.

    I’m thankful to have a job, and also very thankful that my house was paid off in 2018 (should have sold this last summer and moved out of this place, but I can’t convince my wife to budge), so now I can work at Home Depot if necessary, and still be able to pay my semi-annual King County rent payment.

    They dug a hole for the foundation for the new house on the corner, and forms have shown up, and it will be fun to see how they plan to keep it dewatered, since our clay soil drains extremely poorly. It goes in fits and starts – there will be no activity for several weeks, and then a huge amount of work done in only a few days. Probably labor shortages.

    And boy oh boy, let’s talk about how much less wealthy local Amazonians are feeling with their stock going down. This, combined with RE prices dropping, and Chinese buyers dropping out of the picture, should make for a very interesting 2019!

    Also of note: my realtor that I used to buy my house 20 years ago sent me a Christmas letter (well it was a marketing letter for their firm disguised as a Christmas letter) telling me that 2018 was the best year ever for them, woo-hoo! If only I had known about that career option when I was younger . . .

  123. 373
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 359
    I agree, either I’m fully delusional or most of the commenters on this site are fully delusional. If I’m wrong I’d like to be put right. Let’s examine the facts.

    Fact 1: Inventory is historically low in Seattle right now.
    Fact 2: The plans are to create a lot more jobs in seattle right now.

    Conclusion: I believe low supply and high demand drive up housing prices. Therefore at the present time, I cannot forecast doom and gloom in Seattle.

    In the past eight months, Seattle has gone from extremely hot to moderately hot in terms of low supply and high demand. Maybe we will even go to a balanced market at some point. But at present time, I would not say the Seattle housing market is tanking. I wish it was tanking so I could pick up some deals, but that’s not the case. Hopefully it tanks at some point and we can all make some money. Unfortunately, that’s just not what is going on at this time.

    Posting a comment at 3am because I have a newborn to take care of, not because I’m drunk or high this time.

  124. 374
    Erik says:

    RE: QA Observer @ 369
    That was correct to say in 2013. I hope you were smart enough to listen and buy so you didn’t get priced out forever. It’s very unlikely prices will ever go down to 2013 levels in our lifetime.

  125. 375
    Blurtman says:

    RE: JustSomeDude @ 360 – Let’s start with ignorant, first. I would hazard to guess that 99% of Americans have no idea that a recent head of the US Treasury was the head of a bank that committed massive fraud. Not even in Italy would that happen. Maybe Mexico. Dumbness comes in when, once realizing that, you fail to understand the import of that fact.

    The first step to curing dumbness is realizing you are dumb. And then you need to expand your way of thinking, because what you got currently ain’t working. That’s why boisterous folks who are dumb are such easy targets of mockery. Cause they don’t realize they’re dumb.

    I realize everyday that I am ignorant, and the there are some really smart people walking this earth. I just try to do the best I can, myself.

  126. 376
    JustSomeDude says:

    By Blurtman @ 375:

    RE: JustSomeDude @ 360 – Let’s start with ignorant, first. I would hazard to guess that 99% of Americans have no idea that a recent head of the US Treasury was the head of a bank that committed massive fraud.

    RE: Blurtman @ 375

    99% – that would definitely qualify as most! So you are one of these 1% I hear about all the time? Or a different 1%? How many 1% groups are there? I can never keep accurate track.

  127. 377

    RE: JustSomeDude @ 376
    Wasn’t QE Bankster Fraud Made Legal By Politicians Illegally?

    LOL…pass the black label…

    Oh, are 6-8% home loan interest rates for 2019 in the planning by our wonderful Fed Chairman Powell too? Trump is horrified too and wants to fire him:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-discussed-firing-federal-chairman-powell-bloomberg-065401412.html

  128. 378
    Blurtman says:

    RE: JustSomeDude @ 376 – There is a lot about which to be ignorant and to not understand.

    With regards to bank fraud and related corruption, I have tried to remain knowledgeable, and have found Naked Capitalism, Bill Black, the records of public hearings, and other sources to be helpful. But yes, if I ask anybody the question – who was CEO of Goldman Sachs during their the period of last financial crash financial fraud of such magnitude, that it warranted a record financial settlement with the USG, 99% would have no clue. And if I ask if they know what level in the USG he then achieved, 99% would not have a clue.

  129. 379
    Blurtman says:

    Now here is a little gem, and affordable. It survived WW1, and subsequent wars as well.

    3730 41st Ave SW
    Seattle, WA 98116
    $549,000 Price
    2 Beds
    0.75 Bath
    1,200 Sq. Ft.
    $458 / Sq. Ft.
    Redfin Estimate: $545,536
    On Redfin: 2,600,666 days
    Status: Buy this fucker now!!!!!!

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3730-41st-Ave-SW-98116/home/328945

  130. 380
    Matt P says:

    Sp500 & Nasdaq futures are down 2.5% so far. It’s going to get worse next week.

  131. 381

    RE: Blurtman @ 379

    Without regard to that particular house, I am curious about your bias against old houses. I am from PA where old houses are quite popular. Granted their old houses weren’t “bungalow” types. But where i lived and worked in Bucks County PA almost everyone wanted an “old farmhouse”. :)

    There are a group of people, mostly not from this area, who don’t merely want to see prices down. They never want to buy an old house, so for those people they wish for NEW houses to be “cheap”. Even with a major downturn of significant magnitude, some will still only be able to afford “old” houses in many Prime, local markets.

    Do you have a bias against “old” and if yes…how old is “too old” to you?

    I have more of a bias against new than old and focus more on resale than new construction. That has been true for most of my 30 year minus career in real estate. Oddly when I first decided to switch from Portfolio Management to real estate back in 1989-1990 I thought I would work in a New Home sales office. But that disgusted me pretty quickly and never did it and instead focused on resale of “pre-owned” homes. I do some new construction, but very little over the years.

  132. 382
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 373 – Despite our differences, congrats on being a father. Your world will be forever changed. Welcome to the world little one.

  133. 383

    Anyone have the expertise to answer this one? One of the David’s did, but I don’t remember which David. Someone on Quora just asked me:

    “What is a remote feeling, beautiful, but inexpensive area to buy between 5 and 40 acres of land for recreation, camping and the possible future addition of a cabin within 3 hours of Seattle?”

    I’m sure it’s someplace where I don’t work, but don’t know the answer in all directions. Around Vancouver WA would be my best guess. Cle Elum? Centralia?

    I never did like “out in the middle of nowhere” so I have no first hand knowledge on the topic. The only time I went “camping” I snuck out to the nearest hotel when everyone fell asleep and snuck back in by morning. LOL!

  134. 384
    Notme says:

    244 people
    Silicon/KC net migration
    huuuge demand or what?

    -a CORRECT-statistics-dont-lie bubble haiku

  135. 385
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    As always, click on the link, then click once more for enlarged view. The graphs compare 2018-versus-2017 inventory on an hourly basis.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-22
    https://imgur.com/a/i5Rp3xS

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-versus-2018 on 2018-12-22
    https://imgur.com/a/yUHmdsM

    Year 2018 KC SFH active inventory outnumbers year 2017 by a ratio that has been above 1X since mid-March, and has been on a upward trend all year long. In week 47, the ratio passed 2.0X for the first time, after a late-season surge. After some volatility related to the month end (Nov30/Dec1 fell on Fri/Sat), the ratio has continued its upward trend and this week has reached a new high for the year yet again, at about 2.33X. Here are the graphs of the (2018/2017) ratio:

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-22
    https://imgur.com/a/YZ3N0v8

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio 2018/2017 on 2018-12-22
    https://imgur.com/a/WuzeVwg

    The trend is continual and upward. For KC Condo inventory, the ratio 2018/2017 also reached a new yearly high this week, at a staggering 4.25X value (aligned by date). The KC Condo active inventory looks almost parabolic the last several weeks, but at the same time the noise level is elevated. But, as they old saying goes, condos are the last to rise and the first to fall.

    There remains a notably elevated crowd of sellers at the exits of the KC housing market, the largest crowd of any of the years 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018. One has to go back to the bubble-bottom of 2011 to find a larger set of active listings in the same week of the year. It is also notable that sellers are taking the holidays off to a much lesser degree than in 2017.

    Reader alert: Bubble-mongers do not like what these graphs say. The monger reactions vary from posting a bunch of distractions and mis-directions, to mis-characterization of the graphs themselves, and what they say. Please examine each graph yourself, it is worth the time.

  136. 386

    RE: Justme @ 385

    Some areas are heavily weighted in New Construction that is too pricey for most people and doesn’t usually go off market for the holidays. I ran some numbers a few days ago in Redmond and the inventory was almost 50% New priced above $1.2 Million and most at or above $1.4 Million. Good houses for $900,000 give or take are still pretty scarce. Do you ever break out the inventory of houses that people can actually afford?

  137. 387
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 385:

    There remains a notably elevated crowd of sellers at the exits of the KC housing market, the largest crowd of any of the years 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018. One has to go back to the bubble-bottom of 2011 to find a larger set of active listings in the same week of the year. It is also notable that sellers are taking the holidays off to a much lesser degree than in 2017.

    Reader alert: Bubble-mongers do not like what these graphs say. The monger reactions vary from posting a bunch of distractions and mis-directions, to mis-characterization of the graphs themselves, and what they say. Please examine each graph yourself, it is worth the time.

    Justme, your graphs don’t say anything at all about the years 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016. If you are going to use Tim’s graphs for your argument, you should provide attribution so that the reader can judge Justwho is providing mis-direction.

  138. 388
    Greg says:

    By softwarengineer @ 324:

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 323
    Yes Sally

    Most Populists call it the Mueller Witch Hunt because its all political and not about Russian Collusion at all; simultaneous attacks against the stock market [on purpose or coincidental?] is suggested now by many Populists. The Mueller case history proves my point. IMO, collusion is a business practice everyone delves into for globalism trade. What is collusion?

    We spent $150B bribery on our HORRIFYING enemy Iran, but can’t build a $25B security wall for our own border, because it costs too much? The government failed grade school Arithmetic 101? Ineffective spending, the wall is wasteful? How about this wild allegation for Seattle Real Estate…higher interest rates are good for borrowers??? LOL…word parcing is such a joke and so much efforts are falsely wasted on it IMO, especially with no evidence or data presented by opposition. The wall supporters have evidence…the caravan…the Open Border Party [OBP] ignores the danger as moot? Who’s right? Its all a political fight with no brains or reinforcing data attached. No wonder math and science went down the toilet in America….its a political enemy to the rich elite?

    SE, the problem with your posts is that you lie.

    Your claim that the US spent 150B bribing Iran is an outright lie.
    You are lying, you are not mistaken, just lying

    You are being a dishonest person. Do you lie to your kids? You neighbors? Or do you reserve your lying for sites like this??

  139. 389
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Greg @ 388

    “The Democrats and President Obama gave Iran 150 Billion Dollars and got nothing, but they can’t give 5 Billion Dollars for National Security and a Wall?” – POTUS, 12/12/2018

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1072836035514634240?lang=en

  140. 390

    I don’t usually talk politics, but this is what I don’t get about the whole Russian Collusion thing.

    If you are hiring someone for a job, as example, you call and talk to people they used to work with/for. You may even meet with those people if they want to tell you something you need to know (usually negative) that the don’t want to put in writing.

    Hilary Clinton was Secretary of State. People in other Countries would have a lot of important and valid information to share relating to her “job history” and qualifications, given her job involved Foreign Affairs.

    Why then is it wrong to talk with all of the people, any of the people, who might have something to say about her dealings with them?

    If your work involves other Countries, than the relevant info about your character and proficiency can come from other Countries. No? How is that “collusion”? Just because they are Russian and not Israeli or British?

    Serious question. Not trying to start a political argument. But it makes sense to me that heads of other Countries had many dealings with her and something to say that was relevant. Why can’t we hear it?

  141. 391
    Momentum says:

    Russia is going nowhere. Flynn only got into legal trouble because he lied to a federal agent or the federal agent led him to make false statements to them use it against him as a tool for him to flip and provide information. Cohen introuble for tax stuff before and after and paying off women to prevent them prom disclosing info that might affect election. Some real question on whether he broke election law or not, but the tax stuff sending him up the river regardless. If trump gets in trouble it would only be for attempting to tamper or influence w witnesses and their testimony during an investigation. With his public statements and tweets. Would have to impeach him and not indict as he did it as a sitting president. RGB has metastatic cancer and good likelihood Trump May have another justice to nominate if not impeached. If Trump is impeached the right wing will take to streets. If Trump or Pence nominate and confirm another conservative justice to court the left wing will take to the streets. Could have the next depression and a revolution coming. Nothing looks very positive in the coming years in my opinion. Get as much cash as you can now so you can by as much as possible when the blood is in the streets.

  142. 392
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 386

    LOL. Yeah, almost all of the inventory is massively overpriced. That’s why so many buyers are striking. Double the inventory and less sales than last year == buyer strike.

    But I have no automated way of looking for the unicorn reasonable deals that may or may not exist. Get NWMLS to open up to the public, and I’ll probably do it. In the meanwhile, that is the job of those who have access.

    It would be a fun feature if someone created a top10 rottenest deals of the month from actual sales, and likewise the top10 best deals of the month. But knowing the REIC, there is probably a rule against that.

  143. 393
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 390 – Serious question? You think the Trump campaign was maybe thinking about hiring Hillary, and talked with her (and our) enemy on a sort of professional courtesy basis? And by coinky dink, Trump can’t bring himself to criticize the Russian army slicing off sections of neighboring countries, or interfering in our elections, or making nuclear threats against us, and infiltrating levels of our administration? These are trifles. Let’s clear the way for them in Syria, and beat up on our allies instead. Who could think bad of that?

  144. 394

    RE: Justme @ 391

    Seriously? You don’t know how to find 10 properties on Redfin? I want you to find 10 properties that are priced well and with no obvious serious negative that did NOT sell. You are correct that members cannot talk about other agent’s listings. But I’m not buying that you can’t do that.

    Find 10 properties in good locations that are not new construction that are not selling before you continue to act as if a good property can’t sell. It’s only fair that you dig a bit deeper than the broad stats and I’m not buying that the REIC is impeding your effort in that regard. In fact find 5 every week that are on market for more than 14 days that seem to be priced well, but still aren’t selling “because the buyers are on strike”. Keep it under a million bucks.

  145. 395

    RE: whatsmyname @ 392

    You are going way past the original basis for the probe. I’m talking about the meeting during the campaign that started it all. Russia said they had some dirt on Hillary. People agreed to meet to hear what that was. Why not? It’s not like they didn’t have access to in person experience with her. Yes…she was in competition for the same job. Why wouldn’t they want to hear what the Russians had to say and why couldn’t they? It’s getting to the point that anyone who speaks with any Russian becomes a criminal. We do have Russians here you know. They aren’t the enemy and they aren’t all “oligarchs” or politicians. Should everyone be afraid to speak with a Russian? WTH? Why are we demonizing all of the Russians? That’s dangerous territory. We aren’t allowed to demonize most any ethnic group. Why do we get to demonize Russians?

  146. 396
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 394 – Some people had an inkling there was some true dirt on Hillary. Great, let’s hear it. By the same token, some people had an inkling there was some real dirt in the Trump/Russia relationship. And they seem to have been right. We should hear that too.

    Ps. This was the Russian government, not just ethnic Russians.

  147. 397
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 386:

    Some areas are heavily weighted in New Construction that is too pricey for most people and doesn’t usually go off market for the holidays. I ran some numbers a few days ago in Redmond and the inventory was almost 50% New priced above $1.2 Million and most at or above $1.4 Million. Good houses for $900,000 give or take are still pretty scarce. Do you ever break out the inventory of houses that people can actually afford?

    New SFHs account for half of housing inventory?! If true, these new home prices are about to take a dive. Perhaps someone can look up data from 2007/8. I assume the target buyers are tech workers with stock options. Amazon stock is off 1/3 from peak. Now these Amazon techies will need 50% more AMZN shares to purchase the same homes (compared to peak). They will probably need a lot more shares in coming weeks/months. Even if new home prices drop by 20%, they will still be too expensive!

    People who think these high flying stocks will recover soon need to be reminded that MSFT took 15+ years to climb back to its 2000 peak. Most companies (e.g. GE, Sears, IBM) never return to their glory days.

  148. 398
    redmondjp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 383:

    Anyone have the expertise to answer this one? One of the David’s did, but I don’t remember which David. Someone on Quora just asked me:

    “What is a remote feeling, beautiful, but inexpensive area to buy between 5 and 40 acres of land for recreation, camping and the possible future addition of a cabin within 3 hours of Seattle?”

    My family on both sides, as well as my wife, came from Lewis County and I spent a great deal of time there while growing up. There is certainly land available there which would work, as well as in many other counties as well.

    But first, let’s discuss the stated criteria. What kind of recreation? Dirt-bike, mountain bike, ATV, or horseback riding? Cross-country skiing? Fishing or boating? ‘Recreation’ needs to be defined better, as that will have a big impact on the exact location and topography.

    Any type of fishing or boating will mean being close to a lake or river (duh, right?). This could very well mean being located in a floodplain! Not good for a cabin unless there is higher-elevation land somewhere on the property that is above the 100-year BFE (base flood elevation) level, at a minimum.

    Camping? In a tent? In a RV? For how long? With or without any services or utilities (like power)?

    Will the property be used year-round or just seasonally? And remote-feeling? Heck, an acre of trees, with a dwelling in the middle, will give you that feeling, any place that you want to be. So long as you are a few miles away from I-5!

    Now the cabin, that gets a bit more tricky/expensive, especially if you want water and power. The problem with having a cabin, in a remote-feeling area, that is unattended for very long, is that people will likely come mess with it. So if this is the eventual goal, being near year-round neighbors who can watch the place is invaluable.

    So you need to go back and ask some refining questions to tease out exactly what they are looking for. Is a Mount Rainier (and St. Helens) view an absolute necessity? Look for an eastern slope on a hill in Western Lewis County then. Do they want open space, or is timber/brush OK? How flat? How close to amenities? Is sitting in traffic on a Friday afternoon for three hours to get from Seattle to Tumwater (like I did this past July) on I-5 OK? I-5 North and South are hell on most summer Fridays – I-90 is probably the easiest to bug out of the city on, if they don’t like sitting in traffic. That right there could dictate what location they pick.

    HTH

  149. 399

    RE: redmondjp @ 397

    Thanks for this post and your previous one with the ins and outs from the ground of the shut down.

    Much appreciated.

  150. 400

    RE: Eastsider @ 396

    Pretty sure I was talking about Redmond but I just did overall and new accounts for 30% and K,B,R,S,I Eastside closer to 40%. Definitely a glut of new and that doesn’t count the lots they haven’t listed yet in the larger developments. They generally only release a few at a time.

  151. 401

    RE: whatsmyname @ 395

    I think that fits the Classic definition of “witch hunt”. Start with a meeting that is semi-reasonable and use it to dig out whatever we can to get the guy out. You keep bringing up things that were not the basis for establishing the Witch Hunt. I’m not saying you can’t have a witch hunt. Or a Dirty Lying Bastard hunt. But stop pretending it wasn’t a witch hunt.

  152. 402
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 393

    Double-LOL, Ardell. Why would I be looking for property today? All the data tells me that big price drops are coming. There is no point in shopping for a house now. I’m mighty surprised you even ask me these questions. I do look at redfin or zillow and the like occasionally, but only to keep an eye on the ongoing price reductions, not because I expect or really try to find anything worth buying. Isn’t that obvious?

  153. 403
    Blake says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 400:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 395

    I think that fits the Classic definition of “witch hunt”. Start with a meeting that is semi-reasonable and use it to dig out whatever we can to get the guy out. You keep bringing up things that were not the basis for establishing the Witch Hunt. I’m not saying you can’t have a witch hunt. Or a Dirty Lying Bastard hunt. But stop pretending it wasn’t a witch hunt.

    Right on Ardell. I hate Trump, but the Russiagate insanity is beyond ridiculous. The damn Dems should focus on policies that will help the majority of Americans who have been left behind the last 20 to 30 years and can’t make ends meet. Russiagate benefits the Military-Industrial-Intelligence-Media Complex and is a dead end!!

  154. 404
    Matt P says:

    Can we stop with the Russian crap? What does that have to do with Seattle real estate? We’ll find out soon enough whether there was collusion and plenty around here will need to eat crow about being wrong, but they won’t.

  155. 405
    Ardell says:

    RE: Justme @ 401

    Haha! I’m not asking you to buy a house. Holy Caboley. I’m asking you to be real. If you can’t find any good houses that aren’t selling then your message is bogus. Be honest is all I’m asking. Look at it for from all sides.

  156. 406
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 400 – The original premise was treasonous corruption specifically with the Kremlin, and that’s right where things seem to be going. That’s a pretty well targeted witch hunt. You might remember that his witch hunt was run by a government where the executive and both houses were controlled by Republicans. It would have been buried long ago if it could have been done credibly. Most gangsters cry about persecution, and it gets more frantic as the evidence lines up with the charges. You might ask yourself why a powerful man looking ever more guilty of ever more serious crimes seems like a victim to you.

  157. 407
    Mark says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 405

    That’s the pesky thing about investigations, they start one place, but after awhile all the skeletons start coming out of the closet. Al Capone was convicted of tax evasion of all things.

    It seems Trump won’t be that different, expect he’ll likely be brought up on campaign finance fraud (a felony) after he leaves office. The Russia investigation —> Trump —> Michael Cohen’s office —> payments made and directed by Trump through Cohen to two pornstars for silence with the purpose of influencing the 2016 election (corroborated under oath by Cohen and AMI, the National Enquirer publisher). Trump has also lied about these payments, on tape, repeatedly.

    It’s essentially the crime that brought down John Edwards ten years ago, but in Trump’s case, the evidence is far, far stronger. He’s cooked and he knows it.

  158. 408
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 382
    I’m not sure what differences we have? I think you don’t have a firm understanding of asset bubbles, but I certainly don’t have a problem with anyone on here. I just think you are getting stuck in the weeds like justme, pfft, and some others do. We are not in hyper supply, therefore the market isn’t about to crash. I mean nothing personal here, this is just objective reasoning. I can’t make you understand the market, but if you are on a Bubble website, you should try to understand bubbles, right? Otherwise you are just wasting your time and not learning because you don’t have the foundation.

  159. 409
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 407
    Prices may go down a bit, but if we aren’t in hyper supply, we won’t have a big real estate crash. I would guess we have a 15% price correction and then prices head back up.

  160. 410
    Ardell says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 405

    Thank you for the answer Whatsmyname. I know why he looks like a victim to me.

    1. I watch way too much msnbc where it’s constant and I’m sick of it. But being uninformed is worse than not watching. I probably heard way too much about meetings that produced nothing.

    2. He just should never have been elected President of the United States. The whole idea of that was so ludicrous. I think he got caught in a very bad and unexpected situation. He’s bumbling through it, lying, committing crimes but basically just dealing with trying to do a job he doesn’t know how to do correctly. To me he’s just an old man doing things the way he’s always done things. He just shouldn’t be where he is and I don’t want to see him in jail. Though after all the “Lock Her Up!” It’s hard to feel sorry for him I still do.

    I don’t blame him any more than all the people who put him there. It’s all very sad to me. I see him and his family attacked day after day. It wears me down on a personal level. Too much hate.

    It’s like watching a family in a burning building, and most of me just wants to get the family out safely.

  161. 411
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Mark @ 406RE: whatsmyname @ 405

    You guys should have migrated in Nov 2016. You have done nothing good for the country. At least Trump created jobs, reduced welfare rolls, decimated ISIS, brought troops home, stopped ongoing N Korea crisis.

  162. 412
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 408:

    RE: Erik @ 407
    Prices may go down a bit, but if we aren’t in hyper supply, we won’t have a big real estate crash. I would guess we have a 15% price correction and then prices head back up.

    What a change in position from a year ago! Maybe we will see a further change next December. LOL.

  163. 413
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell @ 404

    >>If you can’t find any good houses that aren’t selling then your message is bogus.

    My message is that unsold listings are piling up because the sellers are demanding too much, and the buyers are saying “hell, no” and going on strike, demanding better pricing. There is nothing bogus about this message. It is the unvarnished truth.

    The message from the REIC for years now has been that we have been listing-limited. Because of all that propaganda about “duh inventory”, both sellers and buyers believed the message, which is incredibly destructive and creates price bubbles. Then the buyers finally went on strike and the inventory ballooned more than 2X (KC/SFH) and 4X (KC/Condo) in a year. But sales counts DROPPED. And prices dropped, too, but not enough to make people want to buy all the inventory.

    Meanwhile, with prices moving downward, there will always be SOME houses that sell and SOME buyers that catch these falling knives. That does not mean anything other than that some people are fools.

  164. 414

    RE: whatsmyname @ 392
    LOL…Your Blog Was Funny

    Its a mess, but here’s some non-partisan facts that may help?

    Russia and China are like both bad enemies to America, IMO, China is far worse. After the Cold War ended with Reagan, there were losers. America lost its manufacturing to like China and Soviet Union lost about 1/3 of its country to become Russia….bad blows to both countries. Russia is Orthodox religion and closer to American Christianity than Chinese atheism Communism. We don’t have trade deficits with Russia either.

    Sooooo…what happened in Syria and why is ending Mideast presence there bad? IMO its a decades long embarrassment [Afghanistan too], and a waste of Trillions with no end; and America can’t afford to be the world’s free policeman anymore, we need to get paid to do that. Tending to Syria does break up ISIS HQs [its destroyed now, but can be rebuilt after we leave?]….but we can’t afford to protect our own country from foreign invasions, i.e., a puny cost in comparison $5B Wall? Did I get this mess cleared up Bubbleheads? And why is Boeing and our DOD Generals using tax payer DOD money to put Japanese [and Chinese too] working American jobs [outsourced from Seattle] fabricating the 737 Air-frame? Does the NWO dream of a globalistic DOD under the WTO controls? And we pay the bills? LOL

    That’s why [maybe?] the world is horrified with ending the American taxpayer Mideast money pit?

  165. 415
    Mark says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 410

    Thanks.

    You know, going on a Fox News (or even better, all TV news) hiatus does wonders for reality distortion syndrome. Just a suggestion.

  166. 416
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Mark @ 414 – You don’t watch Fox News so how would you know? Is that what MSNBC and CNN claim? You could not dispute the facts. A case of TDS?

  167. 417
    ess says:

    By Erik @ 408:

    RE: Erik @ 407
    Prices may go down a bit, but if we aren’t in hyper supply, we won’t have a big real estate crash. I would guess we have a 15% price correction and then prices head back up.

    Erik

    For the longer term real estate investor that is not selling, a temporary correction is not the end of the world. Any intelligent investor understands that the value of real estate increases over time, but with some decreases along the way. And during those decreases, the market tends to correct itself with less construction, and as you say real estate prices tend to go up, especially in a market that has physical (sound and mountain), political (GMA and a host of regulations) and economic (no 1500 sq foot or smaller single family houses are being built) constraints.

    Real estate buyers may be on the sidelines, but they have to rent and they tend to stay in their apartments and houses longer. Nightly Business Report just had a discussion about that factor. The end result may be a temporary softening of rents, but the quality of tenants improves dramatically. Many landlords will gladly take a 5-10% reduction of rents for better tenants and less turnover, because in the end they are still ahead.

    The flip side was also true. During the rush to provide mortgages to anyone with a pulse before the great recession, the quality of tenants declined dramatically. That in turn caused more problems along with increased value of property.

  168. 418
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ess @ 416 – I tend to agree that RE prices ‘increase’ over time. However, the increase in the last decade was completely due to a series of QEs and other extraordinary actions by the FED. There was nothing organic about the increase. You can say the same about stock market increases. But if you were in the stock market in 1929 or 1966, you could wait decades and still lost money!

  169. 419

    RE: Justme @ 412

    Every year one should expect homes that are not “positioned to sell” and have not been “positioned to sell” to pile up at year end. When the new year opens up somewhere around the 8th of January, you have to watch very closely at the new listings. Therein lies the truth of where the market is. Not where it is heading, but where the market is. You don’t know where it’s heading until Spring Bump.

    I expect good houses that are priced well to sell. I expect the median price for Spring Bump 2019 (March, Aprll, May, June closings on a combined basis) to be higher than 4th quarter 2018 median. I expect the season to be short again with July and August closings dwindling and the year to end lower than the start. That’s a down market, but not a crash. A down market still has a modest Spring Bump. It’s what happens before and after Spring Bump that tells the story of where the market is heading.

    You lose credibility when you are not truly looking for truth in the data. You are making up a Headline and then looking for support for your headline, just like most freelance news writers. You are simply trying to prove yourself right and others wrong.

    You can do that. You do do that. But you are taking a great deal of time to compile stats. All I ask is that you use them honestly and gather information from all sides of the potential answer and not merely the one you preordained to be proven…so that you can be right and someone else wrong. To pretend that helps someone other than yourself is just disingenuous.

    That you thought I was telling you to go buy a house is very telling. Obviously what you are hearing from “the REIC” is biased by your filter.

    A true analyst of markets and data cannot be overly biased toward a preordained outcome. You need to look harder for the truth of the data and not cherry pick what fits your objective. All of the things you accuse the REIC of doing, you do in reverse. Be of value. Look at it all and look for it all.

    To do that you need to watch what happens in January and every subsequent month. You need to pick five houses as they come out the gate in January that you think should sell. Pick another five houses that you think should not sell. Test yourself…test the market. You can’t be smarter than the market. Be a true analyst.

    I only single you out because you are bothering to collect data and not just interpret Tim’s data. Widen your net.

  170. 420
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 418

    Triple-LOL, Ardell. Just more assertions. Many relatively politely formulated allegations against my purported lack of objectivity. What a hoot. Like I said before, you are not the dirtiest shirt in the REIC hamper, but if you are REALLY concerned about the objectivity of other people’s writing about housing prices, why do you make (false) claims about my objectivity when you could have a field day (as am I) correcting the endless breathless REIC propaganda. If you were really interested in objectivity, that is.

    “You are not looking for truth in the data”. What a hoot. I have simply presented and analyzed active inventory data as well as Case-shiller and other price data, and pointed out how different 2018 is from 2017, and how this is indicative of an ongoing housing bust.

    By the way, unsold inventory has been piling up ever since March 2018. It is not at all just a year-end effect. And that’s an objective fact. Who’s not being objective here?

  171. 421
    Notme says:

    Why is there a strike?
    the supply too demanding!
    mossive irony

    -a bubble haiku

  172. 422
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 418 – asking a real estate (used house salesperson) for advice is like asking a used car salesman for advice. Their advice is B.U.Y. or S.E.L.L. Their advice is beneficial to THEM. Not the buyer or seller. Their paycheck, their kids, their vacations depend on someone being conned into signing that contract. After that, they are off the hook. The mess is then left for the banks.

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

    ― Upton Sinclair

  173. 423
    Notme says:

    I only *sell* used cars
    somebody else brought them, see?
    I wash my hands now

    -a bubble haiku

  174. 424
    Notme says:

    No room at the inn
    dreaming of a bust Christmas
    just like it used to be

    -a bubble haiku

  175. 425
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 410:

    RE: Mark @ 406RE: whatsmyname @ 405

    You guys should have migrated in Nov 2016. You have done nothing good for the country. At least Trump created jobs, reduced welfare rolls, decimated ISIS, brought troops home, stopped ongoing N Korea crisis.

    Maybe it’s you should be migrating. If you like Putin style autocracy, why settle for the apprentice? Trump created jobs on the same trajectory as the years old expansion that he inherited – until he didn’t anymore. I don’t have good facts on welfare reduction – is that why there are so many women among the homeless on the streets during the Trump “economic miracle”? His own Secretary of Defense and lead envoy on ISIS have resigned for the insanity of the chance he’s giving ISIS (for the benefit of Russia).

  176. 426
    Ardell says:

    RE: sfrz @ 421

    I understand that is often true. But we also have complete access to the information. So finding one you trust is still better than none.

  177. 427
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 424 – Oops, I forgot the “N Korea crisis”. N Korea was a long term, low grade annoyance for decades. Trump created a bs “crisis”, then mitigated it back to low grade annoyance. Nothing’s changed except in the minds of Trump’s fish. Southern border “crisis” is the same bs.

  178. 428
    whatsmyname says:

    By Cherrypickingme @ 419:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 418 What a hoot. I have simply presented and analyzed active inventory data as well as Case-shiller and other price data, and pointed out how different 2018 is from 2017, and how this is indicative of an ongoing housing bust.

    By the way, unsold inventory has been piling up ever since March 2018. It is not at all just a year-end effect. And that’s an objective fact. Who’s not being objective here?

    What a hoot. You have doggedly pursued the most blinkered and tightly manipulated “analysis” ever seen on these pages, while pointedly ignoring all context, objections to fallacy, and punctures of your balloon on fact. You are the most transparently, low skilled propagandist on the site.

    Btw, all this piling inventory has far to go before coming close to median inventory on the chart topping this page.

    Also btw, why did you sit out 2013? Waiting for the next leg down? Impending inventory tsunami? Inquiring minds want to know.

  179. 429
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell @ 425 – I sold several homes with no agent and no remorse, but plenty of money in my pocket.
    The REIC lobby has strong-armed the laws, just like the auto dealers’ lobby. Why can’t we buy cars directly from the manufacturer? Because of the strong, defiant car dealers’ lobby. There is no need for the middle man, yet they persist.
    Redfin was threatened and bullied until their idea collapsed under pressure from the REIC. Zillow suffered the same. Who’s next for the mob bosses to attack for their turf rights?

    “Zillow is one of the biggest tech disappointments because it could have revolutionized the way we buy and sell homes by significantly lowering transactions costs. But 14 years after its founding in 2004, real estate commissions are still around 5%, while the internet has compressed downward every other fee known to man.

    The reason why real estate commissions are still so high, despite Zillow and the internet, is because the real estate industry has a powerful lobby group, and Zillow’s main advertising revenue comes from real estate agents who advertise their services or listings on Zillow. Therefore, Zillow isn’t willing to hurt their customers’ bottom lines while also trying to take their money.

    You better believe that if transaction costs dropped down to a fixed rate or a lower commission percentage average, many more properties would sell. Yet, the industry stubbornly holds on for dear life, thereby screwing itself in the process as fewer transactions occur.”
    https://www.financialsamurai.com/dont-be-your-worst-enemy-self-inflicted-wounds-are-the-worst/

  180. 430
    ess says:

    By Eastsider @ 417:

    RE: ess @ 416 – I tend to agree that RE prices ‘increase’ over time. However, the increase in the last decade was completely due to a series of QEs and other extraordinary actions by the FED. There was nothing organic about the increase. You can say the same about stock market increases. But if you were in the stock market in 1929 or 1966, you could wait decades and still lost money!

    And for those who believe that renting is better for them – I say – go ahead and rent for their entire lives. I have no problem with people who rent, especially as one who has worked with renters for 40 plus years and benefited from that business. But over most time periods more than five or ten years, and in most cases, those who buy will not only do better than renting. Of course – real estate, stocks, beanie babies – one should not buy at the top of the market, and those who buy stocks should always rebalance their portfolios to avoided the inevitable downturns. But over time – even those who bought stocks at the time you mentioned did very well.

    The dangers of renting increase over time – rents tend to increase, as the cost of housing and operating that housing tends to increase. Often income or social security does not keep up with the cost of housing. Thus a homeowner who has owned property in most cases will have equity, and/ or P and I payments that will decrease as a percentage compared to rent over time, even considering taxes. And those principal payments start to add up over time. That gives homeowners more choices when they retire and decide to relocate, downsize, or remain in place. In addition, there is a certain protection for homeowners that renters don’t have when prices really escalate as they do from time to time, especially in an environment with increased regulations, land use issues or other “extraordinary” events which are not so extraordinary over time. I would guess that long term renters (20 years or more( have more issues of affordability in places such as Seattle than do homeowners, unless those homeowners constantly refinanced their housing to cover other expenses, or foolishly bought at some top when it made more sense to rent than to buy.

    But as I say – if one’s view of life is that it is better to rent in all situations – viva la difference!

  181. 431
    sfrz says:

    Paraphrasing: Why is it that commissions stay the same? Experts seems baffled and have no good answer on why these commissions have survived the onslaught of tech. The traditional rate are still firm, except for a little negotiation.

    “Agents fought to keep Zillow from accessing private databases known as the multiple listing service — where agents post homes for sale and which many considered an agent’s ultimate advantage. Zillow eventually tapped those listings. But it decided not to challenge the industry head-on, opting to focus on real estate ads.

    The reception was harsher for Redfin, a tech-heavy broker in Seattle that tried to cut agent commissions. It started out selling homes for a flat $3,000 fee and rebated part of the home buyer agent’s commission.

    “Competing agents have threatened us with violence, intimidated our customers and tried to block their offers,” Redfin chief executive Glenn Kelman said in testimony before Congress in 2006.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-real-estate-industry-has-something-the-internet-cant-offer-the-human-element/2017/03/17/14c8dd5c-ff74-11e6-99b4-9e613afeb09f_story.html?utm_term=.2e37e316683a

  182. 432
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ess @ 429 – I am for homeownership. But a home is ultimately a shelter, not an investment. Ignore the (un)affordability index at your own peril. If you are living in an expensive area, e.g. NYC, would it make sense to own or rent? I would say rent. Few people can afford the price volatility. Are you prepared to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars if you are forced to sell in a downturn?

  183. 433
    ess says:

    By Eastsider @ 431:

    RE: ess @ 429 – I am for homeownership. But a home is ultimately a shelter, not an investment. Ignore the (un)affordability index at your own peril. If you are living in an expensive area, e.g. NYC, would it make sense to own or rent? I would say rent. Few people can afford the price volatility. Are you prepared to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars if you are forced to sell in a downturn?

    I agree – one can lose money if one buys, the market tanks, and one must sell at a loss. Anyone who is not committed in staying in their house for less than five to ten years should really think twice about buying a residence, and if the real estate market is in hyper drive – one must really take a good look as to the factors that are driving the market, and if the specific purchase makes sense.

    Like stocks – one shouldn’t buy at the top of the market. Only problem is – what is the top of the market? I remember when 100K for a house in Seattle was considered crazy — guess that wasn’t quite the top! But when people remembered buying duplexes in north Seattle for under 50K, (as my first partial investment) 100K seemed excessive.

    Personally, I have viewed each house we have bought as not only a place to reside, but as an investment. Each house before purchase was viewed not only as a place to reside, but also analyzed as a potential rental. Which has served us well – because all three houses that we currently own have been both lived in by ourselves and rented over the decades. But that is our philosophy, and I understand not everyone accepts that, just as we are willing to buy a less than perfect house and make improvements (which increases both value, rentability and rent). Not only do I have a nice set of tools that were all tax deductible, but I picked up valuable skills while increasing value to all three houses. But some people will totally ignore a property that is priced tens of thousands of dollars less because the paint is the wrong color or the counter tops are not exactly what they wanted.

  184. 434
    richard says:

    RE: ess @ 432 – your philosphy is good because you bought at a good price point. it is about market timing. it will be an idiot to buy a house now thinking it can be rented out with good cash.

  185. 435
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ess @ 432
    Affordability matters. When you paid $100k for a house decades ago, the house was ‘affordable’. According to Rentcafé, Seattle homeownership share decreased by 10.1 percent between 2006-2016. So a lot of your ‘gains’ can be attributed to homes becoming expensive and unaffordable in the area. If you had bought your $100k home in Detroit, you would be telling a different story. Will you advise people in Vancouver BC to buy homes there? Will you ever caution against buying overpriced homes that make no financial sense?

  186. 436
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Eastsider @ 417:

    RE: ess @ 416 – I tend to agree that RE prices ‘increase’ over time. However, the increase in the last decade was completely due to a series of QEs and other extraordinary actions by the FED. There was nothing organic about the increase. You can say the same about stock market increases. But if you were in the stock market in 1929 or 1966, you could wait decades and still lost money!

    I was going to raise this point as well. I think we should all remember that the massive, unprecedented QE of recent years has has been like steroids for asset prices (both stock and real estate). Not only is this QE no longer being injected into the markets, it’s actually being reversed.
    This will continue for several years. At the very least, this will be a strong headwind for stock and real estate prices(yes, even Seattle).

  187. 437
    ess says:

    Eastsider says:
    RE: ess @ 432 –
    Affordability matters. When you paid $100k for a house decades ago, the house was ‘affordable’. According to Rentcafé, Seattle homeownership share decreased by 10.1 percent between 2006-2016. So a lot of your ‘gains’ can be attributed to homes becoming expensive and unaffordable in the area. If you had bought your $100k home in Detroit, you would be telling a different story. Will you advise people in Vancouver BC to buy homes there? Will you ever caution against buying overpriced homes that make no financial sense?

    Detroit and Vancouver are outliers – there are always exceptions to general rules. It is up to an investor to do their due diligence and apply some common sense. Anyone who bought in Detroit during the last fifty years had to either be a hopeless optimist or in a coma, and most of the houses and condos that were bought in Vancouver were bought by overseas investors hiding their money. With foreign investment, the rents in Vancouver rose to a level didn’t justify the prices. It was different when I resided there. Both examples are not typical of the housing markets in North America. (Of course certain parts of Detroit are having a comeback – but still probably an investment for the overoptimistic……..

    It is akin to saying one should ignore the S and P 500 over the past 30 years because Enron and Pets.com went bankrupt, or there have been market downturns that investors were caught in by buying at the top, even though traditionally the S and P has returned approximately 7% over any period of years. There will always be downturns in the stock market, and individual companies will always go bankrupt from time to time. There are many younger people who won’t buy mutual funds due to past experiences such as only buying at the top, not rebalancing their portfolios, or buying only a few individual stocks, on a hunch or what they heard at the office. Bad financial planning? Perhaps – but everyone gets to do what they think is best.

    I absolutely don’t want anyone to buy “overpriced homes that make no financial sense”.
    But then I have always stated that buying a house was individual decision based upon many economic and personal factors. After all, whom am I to talk the best tenants out of the pool of potential renters by encouraging them to buy a house? I want renters who have savings to purchase a house, but don’t want to – rather than tenants who have to rent because they can never afford to purchase and are living pay check to paycheck. I have had them both, and the first category is much better than the second.

  188. 438

    Merry Christmas Eve Bubbleheads ;-)

    OK….what is truth? Does apathy excuse anyone from responsibility for action? Sometimes the comments blogs are more informative than the news article, in this case, its a definite yes in my book.

    https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/articleComments/Amid-shutdown-bigger-worries-are-brewing-13486674.php

    I’ve been happy lately [so are my retired friends enjoying their Trump Social Security Raises] …maybe I’m secretly enjoying the NWO pundits horrified when exposed for being so WALL paranoid for no good reason [and denying they’re not “really” open borders]. LOL…what a bunch of liars…

    I’m not the only one smiling ;-)

  189. 439
    Joe says:

    RE: Joe @ 371

    Amazon now staring 1200’s in the face. Microsoft suffering a bigger than average 4% drop today, exactly as I predicted last week, in order to “catch up’ to the market drops of other big tech companies. Boeing down more than average too. More out-sized declines for Seattle stocks to follow, but the market may see a temporary dead cat bounce.

    The decreased local wealth will put a damper on the housing market this Spring. Local RE remains a falling knife.

  190. 440
    Realistic says:

    By ess @ 432:

    I agree – one can lose money if one buys, the market tanks, and one must sell at a loss. Anyone who is not committed in staying in their house for less than five to ten years should really think twice about buying a residence, and if the real estate market is in hyper drive – one must really take a good look as to the factors that are driving the market, and if the specific purchase makes sense.

    I think even people who are committed to stay in their house more than 5-10 years would be well advised to evaluate market conditions and reconsider their purchase if prices are likely to fall in the near future. If waiting 6-18 months means saving 10%-20% that’s a large chunk of money left in the buyer’s pocket regardless of how long they plan to keep the property. I’d say that, unless personal or family priorities warrant otherwise, the length of planned ownership doesn’t justify buying overpriced RE at a time that looks like a market peak.

  191. 441
    redmondjp says:

    Whoa, the Dow closes below 22K!

    Looks like The Grinch Stole Christmas.

    Buckle up everybody, it could be a wild ride down. Did you move your 401K into the bond funds at the peak? Is it too late to do so now? I remember this same feeling circa 2000, watching my 401Ks drop by up to 40% when the tech bubble deflated.

  192. 442
    noogakl81 says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/kitsap-county-now-a-top-destination-for-people-moving-out-of-seattle/

    I moved to Bremerton from my South Seattle rental a year and a half ago and bought a 3 BR 2 BA 1600 sf house with 1000 sf garage for $271,000. In the process of looking for a house, my wife talked to a friend about why we were moving and the next thing we know, they decided to sell their townhouse in West Seattle and buy a house in Bremerton. My mom decided to move to Bremerton a few months later. My brother moved here from North Bend a few months ago, doubling the size of his house while keeping his mortgage payment about the same.

    I have very few regrets. Traffic is way better. There is better access to nature (Olympic National Park, Mount Rainier). Taxes are cheaper (no ST3).

    It’s a long commute, but if you do most of your work on a computer, you can work on the boat.

    The only thing I would mention for people looking to Kitsap County is that you should not count on being able to take the Bremerton fast ferry on a regular basis. Reservations open on the first of the month for the next month and within two hours they are all booked. There are ~30 seats available for walk-up passengers, but you sometimes have to get in line 30 minutes before the boat leaves in order to get a seat, which defeats the purpose of saving 30 minutes by taking the fast ferry. They are supposed to add another boat in the next year, but demand way exceeds supply. The boats had to be specially designed not to make a large wake and as such they can only carry 120 passengers.

    The Kingston fast ferry is bigger and I don’t imagine there will be as much issue with supply / demand on that route. The Southworth ferry is supposed to come in two years.

  193. 443
    noogakl81 says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/kitsap-county-now-a-top-destination-for-people-moving-out-of-seattle/

    I moved from my south Seattle rental to Bremerton a year and a half ago. Found a 3 BR 2 BA 1600 sf house for $270K. In the process of moving, my wife explained to a friend why we were moving to Bremerton; shortly after that conversation they sold their west Seattle condo and bought a house in downtown Bremerton. My mom moved to Bremerton a few months later. This summer, my brother sold his house in North Bend and bought a house in Port Orchard with twice the square footage and a similar mortgage payment.

    I don’t have any regrets. Traffic is better. Access to nature (Olympic National Park, Mount Rainier) is better and less crowded. Taxes are lower (no ST3). You don’t get the same variety of culinary options, bakeries, Trader Joe’s, etc. but all of the major stores are a short drive away in Silverdale.
    The commute can be a drag, but if you do work on your computer, it’s not so bad.

    What I would say, however, is that supply far exceeds demand for the Bremerton fast ferry. Reservations for the following month open on the first of the month and are booked solid for all the next month’s rush hour trips within an hour or two. There are walk-up spots available, but you need to show up 25-30 minutes before the boat leaves to get those going back from Seattle to Bremerton in the afternoon. The boat can only carry ~120 people because it had to be specially designed not to produce a wake. They are supposed to be adding another boat next year, but I think demand will still exceed supply. So if you are planning to move out this way, plan on taking the slow boat.

    The Kingston fast ferry can carry a lot more people and probably won’t have the same issue, at least not for a few years. The Southworth fast ferry, also much larger, is supposed to start in 2020.

  194. 444
    Joe says:

    RE: Realistic @ 439

    Well said. There is no good way to lose money. The stock market and Seattle RE is in a freefall right now, and the recession and layoffs haven’t even started. Potential buyers should sit back for at least a full year and reassess later.

  195. 445
    David says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 440 – I bought $20k in Berkshire Hathaway stock today!

    Housing prices are still going up by BTW. Just more slowly – especially nationwide.

  196. 446
    Joe says:

    RE: David @ 445

    In what world do you live? It’s well documented that Seattle housing prices have fallen 11% in six months. They are not rising as you suggested. Far from it.

  197. 447
    redmondjp says:

    By Joe @ 446:

    RE: David @ 445

    In what world do you live? It’s well documented that Seattle housing prices have fallen 11% in six months. They are not rising as you suggested. Far from it.

    And there are several homes for sale right now in Carnation, for $750K to 900K. In Carnation! It’s a nice little town, but you’d have to be insane to pay that much for a home in the city limits.

  198. 448
    Rentin’ says:

    Merry Christmas everyone! Just wanted to thank you all for your opinions, insights, and general sharing of experience and knowledge. It’s great to hear such a range of different thoughts on Seattle real estate and it has definitely provided me with a welcome distraction to ease my anxiety about not owning a home yet. I wish you all a happy holiday season!

  199. 449

    RE: redmondjp @ 441
    Yes redmonddjp

    And the Open Border Party (OBP) looks at a 30% reduction in equity of their retirement portfolios [real estate too after the 6-7% 30 year loans sink in] and is left lamenting: its all the Fed Chairman’s fault for raising interest rates because the economy is so strong under Trump’s tax cuts…LOL…Trump’s shutdown over a couple $billion [he’s offered the OBP yesterday a $2B cost reduction and they refused to negotiate] for the WALL makes them not blame that uncertainty for their lost wealth. Blame your open border stance, and quit denying your not the OBP. Enjoy a Merry Christmas with your OBP stock portfolios burning in the open border shutdown paranoia burn barrel?

    Is the political deadlock worth it? Other news on sanctuary city flight out by the Middle Income Middle Class:

    https://nypost.com/2018/12/22/the-exodus-of-new-york-citys-endangered-middle-class/

    Wipe that smile off your face SWE…LOL

  200. 450

    RE: redmondjp @ 441
    Hey a Silver Lining to SWE’s Bad Timing Pulling Out of Stocks When it Hit 20,000 DOW in 2015

    My safe long-term 2.2% CDs [the last 3 years] paid me about as much to date. That rate is now closer to 3% and rising, so are my $CASH$ money market accounts. Ask BECU.

    I’ve always had this kind of luck in life. I love good economies without QE. I had no idea this would happen BTW….did anyone beside Trump know or guessed?

  201. 451

    RE: redmondjp @ 398
    Don’t Get Sick With Just Medicare Insurance There

    No local doctors can afford to take it in Ocean Shores area [Medicaid is a complete joke, no doctors take it, anywhere]….but no incomes and cheap land go hand in hand….just don’t get “chronic” sick unless you have an ACA $25K/Yr Silver “real insurance” plan like Blue Cross or Group Health [a bit cheaper, but is it still ACA available?, Kary would know].

    A personal helicopter would help if you need frequent/chronic doctor visits…I’m sure its cheaper than $700K homes in Seattle, use private airports and buy or rent “quicker” air travel rides to doctor?….or just drive your car forever [not good if you’re in pain]….LOL…maybe hire Milenials to drive you to health care?

  202. 452

    RE: Greg @ 388
    Hey Greg

    The bribe money $CASH$ packed in the multiple 737s to Iran from Obama sums it up. Lest we forget. Spineless and ineffective actions wasting our money on bribes. We might as well of thrown it in today’s shutdown burn barrel fire…

  203. 453

    RE: Deerhawke @ 252
    Merry Christmas Deer Hawk ;-)

    Excellent question, where will Seattle Real Estate be in like 10 years? Assuming the Trump tax cuts bring our manufacturing back to America [its been a good assumption to date], its gonna take time to get our plant engineering, civil engineering and manufacturing engineering semi-skilled again, it takes 10-15 years to get an engineer “journey level” skilled with on the job training. We can lie about it, but it is what it is. We’re behind the power curve planning milestones and delaying success. Then we need to build tooling and set it up for production again….that’s not immediately either.

    Step one is get a plan in place….then hope for patient financial growth later….without a plan we fail and Seattle real estate will become worthless well before 10 years, especially with a global depression. Prices and hope for future go hand in hand, so even planning more manufacturing will drive Seattle Home Prices higher, even with normal good economy interest rates. The world economy pathway strengthens when America’s on the right planning track too.

    I state this in a best estimate, no one really knows for sure….I’ve been wrong before, who hasn’t? But failure is unavoidable if we don’t try.

  204. 454
    Notme says:

    In your xmas stocking
    please, sir, may I have some more?
    a wet lump of moss

    -a not-what-das-REIC-promised-you-for-Xmas bubble haiku

  205. 455
    Notme says:

    Peace on earth
    not asset inflaploitation
    get back in the crib

    -an Xmas wish bubble haiku

  206. 456

    RE: sfrz @ 429
    If You Find a Foreclosed Owner and Buy it Straight From the Bank

    You save a ton of $CASH$, but it takes incredible luck/patience too, to find these secret deals. I did in 2014, but haven’t since…

  207. 457

    RE: Realistic @ 440
    Owning a Home is Usually Break Even or Loss With Less Than 5 Years Purchase

    Unless you’re Erik….but he’s a rare breed and uses flipper experience to extract profits sooner. There’s always exceptions to the rules…LOL

    My lucky devil foreclosure 2014 purchase was profit right after purchase….but hard to track down and communication business skills/experience are mandatory too…it is what it is. I closed that lucky contract for deed in 10 days.

  208. 458
    Justme says:

    Case-Shiller update

    Case-Shiller home price index for Oct 2018 (Aug-Sep-Oct average) is out today.

    Seattle dropped again, 2.6 points.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA

  209. 459
    N says:

    A new Seattle housing law forbids landlords from checking into tenants’ criminal history — but does it go too far?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-new-seattle-housing-law-forbids-landlords-from-checking-into-tenants-criminal-history-but-does-it-go-too-far-2018-12-26

  210. 460
    Justme says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-home-price-growth-slowed-in-october/

    QUOTE: Seattle again was the market with the fastest month-over-month *decline* in October — 1.1 percent. Only seven other cities saw median home prices drop month to month, and none of those fell more than 0.4 percent.

  211. 461
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 460 – As you have been alluding for years, it looks like finding the “right” time to buy has been a pretty long term outlook. Did you do the smart thing for long term money, and put your down payment fund in the stock market?

  212. 462
    S-Crow says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 457 – Trust me. Many flippers are getting their asses handed to them. Right Now. In Seattle Metro & Rural Tri -County area. Substantial losses.

    Remember as I mentioned before… The market didn’t need to have prices drop at all. It just needed to take longer for homes to sell (ie, increase in market time.) Now with prices dropping….it’s increasing the the burden for “must sell” sellers.

  213. 463
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 462

    I wonder if you might be able to estimate or guesstimate what percentage of all transactions (Tri-County, as you said) may be flip-buys and/or flip-sells in the last several months or several years. And teardown buys coupled with “new” sales, for that sake. Such numbers do not seem to be widely known…

  214. 464
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 462 – Wow, I thought those flippers had unreasonably high margins, but it sounds like that’s not the case. I suppose that as the flippers are forced out of the market we can achieve the same number of ultimate net consumer purchases on many fewer sales transactions. And prices will be lower, albeit with equivalent loss of quality and condition.

  215. 465
    sfrz says:

    This artificial low interest rate bubble has popped.
    “Seattle home price growth slowed again in the latest period, dropping to fourth highest in the nation after reigning as No. 1 for much of the past two years.

    New data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, released Wednesday, show average home prices in the Seattle area were 7.3 percent higher in October than the year before. As recently as June, home prices were up by 12.8 percent over the previous year.

    The data also show that average Seattle home prices have actually dropped by about 2.4 percent over the past two months. That’s the steepest drop of any city in the index.”

    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-home-price-growth-continues-downward-plunge-report-finds

  216. 466
    sfrz says:

    Nobody wants to become San Fran. Nobody wants to become Seattle.
    “Seattle-ization, meanwhile, is a particularly dire diagnosis: The high housing costs and tech riches there have remade the city with startling speed.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/upshot/happy-new-year-may-your-city-never-become-san-francisco-new-york-or-seattle.html

  217. 467
    Justme says:

    RE: sfrz @ 465

    sfrz, not a complaint about you but a complaint about how the news is reported and how press releases and press reports are written:

    “Seattle home price growth slowed again in the latest period, dropping to fourth highest in the nation after reigning as No. 1 for much of the past two years.”

    This convoluted sentence is a perfect example why this nonsense of using YOY (Year-Over-Year) price comparisons has to stop. Komo says “price growth slowed again”, which is true in the YOY sense, but does not tell what actually happened: PRICES DROPPED SEVERAL MONTHS IN A ROW. But the casual reader would think, “oh, the prices are still going up”. Except they aren’t. Prices are dropping, and have been for some 7 months now (median prices in KC).

    It is too little, too late, then to follow up with

    “The data also show that average Seattle home prices have actually dropped by about 2.4 percent over the past two months. That’s the steepest drop of any city in the index.”

    An average Joe reader that does not understand the propensity of the REIC to use YOY numbers will likely be left scratching their head and wonder how prices can be both up and down at the same time. But the answer is clear. PRICES ARE DOWN.

    The REIC loves using YOY numbers every month because it makes it makes it look like prices “always go up”. In fact when prices start dropping, it will take most likely several months before that makes the YOY go negative. REIC loves it when the buyin public is uninformed. Yes, yes, a well-informed person knows that YOY has the “advantage” that it smooths out seasonal patterns by always including a full year of changes. And that is often trotted out as a justfication for using YOY. But it is patently misleading to focus on YOY when prices are dropping MOM. Good reporting should always lead with MOM, as in, for example,

    “County X median (or Case-Shiller) price dropped Y% MOM, which also reduced the YOY price change from Z% to W%”

  218. 468
    Justme says:

    Here is a well-written report on the Oct 2018 Case-Shiller numbers, for Seattle and elsewhere:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/26/most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-decline-seattle-san-francisco-bay-area-san-diego-denver-portland/

    QUOTE: Seattle house prices drop 4.4% in four months, biggest drop since Housing Bust 1; Prices deflate in San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Denver, and Portland.

    Whew!! 4.4% drop in 4 months is quite a downward pace, expecially given that there’s still very few foreclosure auctions taking place in Seattle Metro But the stress is quite visible. cf. also what S-Crow wrote above. The buyer strike is working!

  219. 469
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 468:

    Here is a well-written report on the Oct 2018 Case-Shiller numbers, for Seattle and elsewhere:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/26/most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-decline-seattle-san-francisco-bay-area-san-diego-denver-portland/

    QUOTE: Seattle house prices drop 4.4% in four months, biggest drop since Housing Bust 1; Prices deflate in San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Denver, and Portland.

    Whew!! 4.4% drop in 4 months is quite a downward pace, expecially given that there’s still very few foreclosure auctions taking place in Seattle Metro But the stress is quite visible. cf. also what S-Crow wrote above. The buyer strike is working!

    I see where you’re coming from and I wish you were right and prices dropped enough for me to afford a place, but look at the Spring spike. It’s way steeper than any other city, so the sharp drop is just putting us back to where we were pre-spike and up YOY. Unfortunately, that’s still very high and not affordable for the median family.

  220. 470
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 469 – If you look at the last chart in this post, y/y decline will start happening perhaps as early as December. CS home price index report is 2-3 months behind.

  221. 471

    RE: S-Crow @ 462
    Yes S-Crow

    Especially if they didn’t buy them for at least 1/2 selling prices, but closer to 80%. No wiggle worm room for profits. Hold a vampire cross to foreclosure auctions, I’ve always blogged that. HUD Auction Homes are no cheaper than listed ones…

    I grabbed mine up [no auction, from the seller direct on a bank short sale foreclosure] for $26K plus $5-6K in code updates…it lists for like $90K. A rare buy. So you are right on.

  222. 472

    RE: Matt P @ 469
    Remember That Movie “The Shining” With Jack Nickleson?

    Where he axes his way through the bathroom door, sticks his head through the axe hole, and shouts, “I’m Back!”

    The day to day stock market crash is back [albeit YOY data is the real trending…]:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-national-debt-interest-costs-are-about-to-skyrocket-does-it-matter/

    6-7% home mortgage loans at a theater near you soon? You don’t dare $CASH$ in that old 3-4% loan to buy up [or refinance]….you don’t qualify now?

  223. 473
    Eastsider says:

    RE: sfrz @ 465 – According to Zillow, November home prices were 3% higher yoy. Zillow leads CS by a month, so expect CS to report the same 3% increase for November. As I said earlier, December may be the first yoy decline since 2012.

  224. 474
  225. 475
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 473:

    RE: sfrz @ 465 – According to Zillow, November home prices were 3% higher yoy. Zillow leads CS by a month, so expect CS to report the same 3% increase for November. As I said earlier, December may be the first yoy decline since 2012.

    I know CS lags a few months, but even a YOY decline will not make Seattle affordable for median incomes. It will take a couple years of declines to get back to affordable range. I just don’t believe that it will happen although I do have hope that it will.

  226. 476

    Just an FYI. Lots of talk about this at the moment in smaller circles. “Today, FEMA issued a new opinion disallowing new or renewal flood insurance policies during the partial shutdown of the federal government.” That statement from late yesterday.

    The Flood Insurance Program had to be renewed by Saturday past, and it WAS RENEWED (though only until May for some reason). But yesterday, even with the extension of the current program, there was this halt to issuing policies.

    Just mentioning as it could impact year end stats in many places. Not sure what the % is here, but Florida is almost “dead in the water” pun intended. Could have more serious ramifications for closings that had to close by year end for tax reasons.

    There is some confusion as to whether this impacts ALL policies, even via private carriers, or just NFIP. S-Crow may know. Some are saying ALL flood insurance polices involve government sanction and this impacts all closings that require flood insurance We do have a fair amount of water and a large portion of Downtown Redmond and Carnation and other areas require flood insurance, even though you can’t see the water from those. There are many places here that require flood insurance. It’s not just about waterfront property.

    Even if they fix this soon there are almost no business days after that to effect year end closings. I would think if the buyer is in breach due to this issue, the seller will be obligated to extend the close date. Hard to say if the seller needed to take the gain (or loss) in 2018.

    Just an alert that December and Year End closings could be impacted by this for those looking at the week to week stats.

  227. 477

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 476
    Yes Ardell

    Maple Valley Was Flooded Bad About 10 Years Ago

    100s of ft elevation below the East Kent Hill I live on top of…a co-worker $CASHED$ in her 401K to upgrade her home with custom walls, and new frame designs….it flooded 5 feet deep into her front yard. The couple is rich, but is this “totaled” type of loss covered by flood insurance? S-Crow would know. I know earthquake insurance is a similar joke too, the deductibles are like $50K on up…

    She still owns the home but who would buy it now?

  228. 478
    Justme says:

    I made a plot of Case-Shiller Seattle index that I think shows the June 2018 peak pretty well. Enjoy.

    https://imgur.com/a/DsweyHe

    As always, remember that Case-Shiller (CS) uses a very specific and advanced methodology that is based on pairs of qualifying(*) sales, and not just looking at the median price or average price of all sales. Also, part of the methodology is that it is based on 3 months worth of qualifying closed sales, plus a roughly 7 week delay from the date of the last sale included, to the date of publication.

    For example, the linked plot includes closed sales until 2018-10-31 (meaning it was based on Aug-Sep-Oct closed sales), and the index was published on Tue 2012-12-26. This we call the “October index”, although it contains Aug-Sep-Oct sales. When comparing October CS to month-end medians (as published by NWMLS and other sources), the time lag of 1.5 months is but one source of mismatch.

    (*) For all the gory details, search for “Case-Shiller methodology” and read the pdf. Many people probably know the above, but it is worth repeating for reference.

  229. 479
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 478:

    I made a plot of Case-Shiller Seattle index that I think shows the June 2018 peak pretty well. Enjoy.

    The Tim does a Case-Shiller chart pretty much every month. It’s interactive. You can even add comparison cities and do all sorts of neat stuff in Tableau. You should check it out.

  230. 480
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Justme @ 478 – That looks like a blow-off top to me. The reversal has been sharp, and I can already see the rest of the trend forming a classic bubble.

    What shocks me the most is that “experts” are now admitting the top is in and will be for the foreseeable future.

    From the Seattle Times article this week:
    “Prospective homebuyers can no longer sustain the demand that propped up aggressively rising home prices,” said Cheryl Young, a senior economist with the real estate firm Trulia. “With little sign that homebuyers’ purchasing power will strengthen into 2019, expect the housing market to stagnate well into next year.”

  231. 481

    RE: softwarengineer @ 477

    I was going to mention Maple Valley but I try not to talk about markets I don’t delve in often. The most recent time I reviewed a property for someone that required Flood Insurance it was off Maple Valley Highway, but not in Maple Valley I think.

    “She still owns the home but who would buy it now?” Of course everything sells. I often chuckle when I read comments talking about places where houses cost less. Often they simply relate it to the distance to work without regard to crime, in a flood zone, etc…

    Everything sells…but nothing is sold for less without good reason.

    “a co-worker $CASHED$ in her 401K to upgrade her home with custom walls, and new frame design…” She likely would have known the house was in a flood zone when she made those improvements. A house that is not in a flood zone can flood, but more likely it is in the flood zone and that is known at time of purchase. I have seen a case or two where an owner is surprised they are in a flood zone because the flood zone map was redone after they purchased, but that is somewhat rare and in one case the people owned their home for 36 years and the insurance provider didn’t bother to notify them when the map changed. Caused some problems for the buyer as the seller answered “no” to “Is the property in a flood zone?” when they did their seller disclosure form, but the insurance agent picked it up prior to closing. Every FINANCED transaction has to have insurance and that is the key indicator of whether or not flood insurance is required. Cash buyers beware.

  232. 482
    Joe says:

    It should be an interesting 4Q earnings season. Stocks started dropping at the start of the quarter, and problems related to this will begin to show in the 4Q numbers. Plus, the one-time earnings growth bang from 2017 tax cuts will be phasing out quickly in 2019.

    Expect many restructuring and layoff announcements as companies conservatively plan for reduced 2019 profitability, including a likely recession. This is all going to put a huge damper on Seattle RE prices in 2019 and 2020.

    Keep an eye on Microsoft and Boeing. These are the companies that will lead layoffs in front of the next recession.

  233. 483
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 474
    Looks fun, maybe I’ll check it out. My advice would be to to try to buy low and sell for a higher price. Move into the place to reduce risk. Try to make less mistakes every time.

    Flipping classes means we are getting closer to a crash.

  234. 484
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 474
    Its always a good time to make money. I’m gonna go to the auction tomorrow and see if I can get something cheap enough to make money. If I get something $200k under value, I’ll just move into it and sell my place. I doubt I’ll get that good of a deal, but it’s worth a shot…

  235. 485

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 481 – Thanks for the case history Ardell….living on the Washington St coast in mud slide territory same conundrum I imagine, no insurance company will cover and your risk. You mentioned $CASH$ deals not uncovering the unlisted house insurance concerns. I imagine the only way to sell these rotten/risky locations is $CASH$.

  236. 486

    RE: Erik @ 484
    Ardell Gave Some Warnings That are Good

    But I imagine with Erik, she was just preaching to the choir….LOL…and yes Erik, even during the best of economic times foreclosures are all over the place [even non-flood zones], they’re non stop. Maybe the auctions have improved recently? You’d know ;-)

  237. 487

    RE: Joe @ 482
    Layoffs Abound Soon?

    NWO bent GM and its recent outsourcing plans to China come to mind….but lets talk common sense too, the American economy is also red hot with money, higher interest rates and low unemployment. Big contradictions to your predictions. GM will have” hot head Trump” to argue with now, LOL, I pity GM taking tax cuts then outsourcing too. Trump’s temper on short fuse now….LOL

    Boeing/Microsoft soon facing the Trump surveillance probe for being the world’s globalist suckers??? LOL, this mayhem may be unsettling, but kind of interesting too. Never a dull moment on Seattle Bubble ;-)

    Trump’s on the warpath lately, no Wall, no access to Mexico. Closed border entirely….LOL….he figuratively stomach punches his foes? Don’t play chess with Trump. And yes, I predict Trump will get his wall, so do most folks I ask.

  238. 488

    RE: Erik @ 484
    Good Luck Erik

    I always wish good fortune on brave/skilled Seattle investors making lemon aid from lemons…

    Believe me folks, Erik is a great communicator and influencer, he’s not average that’s for sure. His success route may not work for those lacking these skills [luck too?]. I’d recommend joining a Toastmasters club to brush up… its also sounds like he met the perfect mate too, one who thinks like Erik and is willing to move a lot for $CASH$. Most mates don’t.

  239. 489
    David says:

    I’m still seeing ‘sale’ prices rising according to Redfin. There was a sudden drop but NOW they appear to be on the rise again.

    Perhaps reflecting Warren Buffet’s muse: In the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run, it is a weighing machine?

  240. 490
    Notme says:

    das REIC hibernates
    works the holiday parties
    new anecdotes soon

    -a seasonal bubble haiku

  241. 491
    Lled says:

    RE: David @ 489

    I noticed that this morning as well. My house went up by 1.5k on Redfin. It dropped 1k on Zillow though.

    I’ve been watching the West Seattle market which is where I live. There’s quite a few houses for sale at a higher price per square foot than I paid a few months back. There is one, granted near the Junction, that is pending at $630 a square foot which is almost double what I paid per square foot about 2 miles farther south in WS late this summer.

    There are a lot of homes for sale, at least relative to what it looked like 2013-2017. Like a few posters have commented here, the ones that aren’t in great areas (like right off 35th Ave SW) or the ugly houses or houses that need a lot of work are sitting. The ones that actually look nice seem to be selling just as quickly as before and for about what they were going for in summer, if not 2-3% higher.

    There is no doubt that Seattle has had a visible dip in sales and price per the CS reports and the reports here and that seems to be somewhat of an outlier relatives to other markets. I read a lot of these posts and comments out of a sense of anxiety and impending doom initially, but in going back through the posts here and there from 2013 onward, it seems like there is just a general negative feedback loop among a lot of the posters about prices and our real estate market in general.

    The data we’re looking at is always a month to three behind real time. In the last 1-3 months, we’ve had a lot of variables in Seattle including speculation about Amazon HQ2 and its effects on our market, rising interests rates, and political turmoil in the other Washington paired with a general sense of anxiety about our economy as we approach becoming the longest economic expansion on record. We are also in the natural down time of the market in late autumn and winter.

    The latter examples affect all of the US (and the world), but the Amazon HQ2 issue was uniquely Seattle. Anecdotally, I know a handful of people who held off buying until after HQ2 was settled. The amount of inventory has gone up drastically, but it is still very low by normal and non-2013-2017 standards.

    My gut feel is, barring some sort of national/global economic crisis, that what we’ve seen in Seattle July/August to December is a lull in the market that will probably carry over into 2019 for a while. We may be at the end of our 9-13% annual price increases, but it does appear that the desirable houses are selling quickly (30-45 days) with no real discernable drop in value. Amazon is still hiring in Seattle, albeit at a slower rate, but if you read the Puget Sound Business Journal, companies like Facebook and Google are buying up millions of commercial square feet of real estate in Bellevue and Seattle. Our region is in a pretty healthy spot. There are of course risks of recession and all of that, but one could have made that same argument in 2013 or 2014 when headlines kept popping up that Seattle had more cranes and construction than any other city.

    I bought my first house in the area in 2014 and sold it in early 2018 before buying this home in September, so I’m not particularly hung up on where the market is heading since I got in to the real estate market here right as it was taking off. It would take a massive crash in prices for me to really bleed at all on these transactions. I also plan on living in the home for 10+ years, so I don’t really have an agenda to push. Just my thoughts.

  242. 492
    Blurtman says:

    But how can a CEO who presided over record finical fraud at the institution he helmed, be appointed to the head of Treasury? Sheeple? Bueller?

    1999-May 2006: Henry Paulson is CEO of Goldman Sachs

    Goldman Sachs to pay $5 billion in U.S. Justice Dept mortgage bond pact

    (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) has agreed to pay $5.06 billion to settle claims that it misled mortgage bond investors during the financial crisis, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Monday.The settlement, which Goldman disclosed in January, stems from the firm’s conduct in packaging, securitization, marketing and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007, the Justice Department said

    The settlement, which Goldman disclosed in January, stems from the firm’s conduct in packaging, securitization, marketing and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007, the Justice Department said.

    Investors suffered billions of dollars in losses from the securities bought during the period, the department said.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-mbs-settlement/goldman-sachs-to-pay-5-billion-in-u-s-justice-dept-mortgage-bond-pact-idUSKCN0X81TI

  243. 493
    Blurtman says:

    But how can a CEO who presided over record financial fraud at the institution he helmed, be appointed to the head of Treasury? Sheeple? Bueller?

    1999-May 2006: Henry Paulson is CEO of Goldman Sachs

    Goldman Sachs to pay $5 billion in U.S. Justice Dept mortgage bond pact

    (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) has agreed to pay $5.06 billion to settle claims that it misled mortgage bond investors during the financial crisis, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Monday.The settlement, which Goldman disclosed in January, stems from the firm’s conduct in packaging, securitization, marketing and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007, the Justice Department said

    The settlement, which Goldman disclosed in January, stems from the firm’s conduct in packaging, securitization, marketing and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007, the Justice Department said.

    Investors suffered billions of dollars in losses from the securities bought during the period, the department said.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-mbs-settlement/goldman-sachs-to-pay-5-billion-in-u-s-justice-dept-mortgage-bond-pact-idUSKCN0X81TI

  244. 494
    Justme says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 491

    Speaking of bubble swindlers or bubble profiteers becoming US Treasury Secretary, there is also our current USTS, Steven Menuchin, who made a bundle on OneWest Bank buying the IndyMac Bank loan portfolio at a $4.7B discount to book value, and then profiting from foreclosures, partly due to a loss-sharing agreement with FDIC (bank savers and taxpayers fund the FDIC). I’m guessing that some of the “losses” were fake losses generated by penalty-level interest rates that jacked up the “cost” basis for the loans much in excess of what it cost OneWest to hold them. Then by having FDIC pay part of the fake losses, OneWest ended up in reality making a huge profit.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Mnuchin#OneWest

  245. 495
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 489

    >> I’m still seeing ‘sale’ prices rising according to Redfin

    What ‘sale’ prices? Post a reference, or I call BS propaganda on this one right here and now.

  246. 496
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Justme @ 492 – But no billion dollar fraud settlement on the part of OneWest, right?

  247. 497
    Justme says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 494

    OneWest “was involved in a string of lawsuits over questionable foreclosures, and settled several cases for millions of dollars”.

    Nothing in the billion dollar class, AFAIK.

  248. 498
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 493 – I’m not going to mess up the soup by highlighting any properties I am watching I’m just telling you what I see.

    This housing ‘dip’ is getting rather long in the tooth. Prices are going to rise again it seems. Look at Amazon, their NYC move is going to take 10-15 years to flesh out according to reports. Have construction costs decreased in Seattle?

  249. 499
    Justme says:

    Seattle has been at the forefront of median price drops this fall, but the rest of the country appears to be following. Here are some numbers from fortress California, Boston, and more. Even freaking Palo Alto is down 10%. It doesn’t get more fortress than Palo Alto, does it? Where have all the Chinese “investors ” gone? (Long time passing, Long time ago, etc)
    Santa Cruz median down 27%. Definitely not fortress, although with such a huge drop some product mix effects must be part of the picture. San Diego bouncing a bit. Boston realtor’s resident think winter prices may be higher than upcoming spring prices, and that is in cold-winter Boston!

    ——————

    “The residential property market in Palo Alto has cooled down meaningfully in the last six months or so. The median home price of all homes sold in Palo Alto has dropped to $2.79 million in the second half of 2018, 10 percent lower than $3.1 million in the first half.”

    “Price reduction has become the new norm. One out of four homes listed in Palo Alto since July 1 has reduced its listing price. The last time Palo Alto had more than 60 reductions in the late half of the year was 2012. This year’s sudden shift is more than seasonality and has left many home sellers in an awkward position.”

    “By many measures, the Santa Cruz County economy enjoyed a record-breaking year. The median home price, the midpoint of what sold, set a record — $935,100 — in March. By November, it slipped to $911,250 on 134 sales, down 27 percent, according to Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who tracks the numbers.”

    “San Diego County home prices were up 1.1 percent in November after two months of declines, CoreLogic reported. The median price was $565,000 — still down $18,000 from the all-time peak reached in August. Najla Wehbe Dipp, a real estate agent primarily in East County, said she has met with several potential buyers who say they are waiting until next year for a big Great Recession-style drop in home prices.”

    “There were 703 home sales in Ventura County at a median sale price of $575,000 in November, according to CoreLogic. That is an 18.5 percent decrease in sales from October, when 863 homes were sold in the county. The median sale price also dropped by 3.4 percent from October’s $595,000 median.”

    “‘Prices have now fallen on a month-to-month basis in four of the past five month in the detached home market, which suggests home values may have peaked this summer,’ explained Greater Boston Association of Realtors president Marie Presti . ‘As a result, for those looking to maximize the value on the price of their home, this winter may be a better time to do so than waiting until spring, as there will be less competition due to fewer homes listed for sale.’”

    The original links can be found at http://housingbubble.blog/?p=664

  250. 500
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 496

    So you are just spouting BS propaganda based on some choice of a few properties that you won’t tell us about? How do you even define price changes by looking at handful of sold properties one month and a different handful of sold properties the next month? I could come up with all kinds of median or average price changes numbers based on selecting a specific small subset of properties.

    Methinks David is trying to sow the seed that now is a good time to buy. But all the NWMLS data and Case-Shiller data says that prices are dropping.

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