NWMLS: Home price gains vanish as sales continue to slip

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December market stats have been published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Year-over-year home price gains dropped to their lowest level since March 2012 as inventory skyrocketed, despite the fewest new listings ever in a month. The end of 2018 definitely set up 2019 to be an interesting year in the housing market.

The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the data.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

December 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 2,838 -29.4% +143.0%
Closed Sales 1,704 -5.9% -18.6%
SAAS (?) 0.94 -15.1% +9.1%
Pending Sales 1,372 -28.8% -6.0%
Months of Supply 1.67 -25.0% +198.6%
Median Price* $639,000 -0.8% +0.6%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell 29 percent from November to December, and was up 143 percent from last year. This is the highest level of December inventory since 2013.

On the flip side, here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 11 percent from a year ago, falling to their lowest level ever for any month of the year. It’s definitely interesting that standing inventory is increasing so quickly despite to few new listings hitting the market.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell six percent between November and December. Last year over the same period closed sales also dropped six percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent and were at their lowest December level of the past seven years.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were down 29 percent from November to December, and were down six percent year-over-year. The last time there were fewer pending sales in a December than there were last month was in December 2008.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The continuing massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. Again. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last five months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from November to December, to the lowest level since March 2012, which was the last month that prices were falling year-over-year.

Finally, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

November 2018: $639,000
November 2017: $635,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

So far there’s no story on the December data in the Seattle Times yet. I’ll update this post later after they publish their story.

Update: Here’s the Seattle Times story: Seattle area’s topsy-turvy home market ends 2018 with Eastside prices falling over the year

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 3 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

671 comments:

  1. 501
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 487
    David wrote: ” It has been 12 years since the Obama Depression started to form.”

    For anyone new to this blog, David is our resident idiot. Yup… David points out that the Obama Depression started in 2007, before he was elected!!

    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
    Mark Twain

  2. 502
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 492:

    How about this doozy?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/219-24th-Ave-E-98112/unit-C/home/146591

    It looks like Redfin has the MLS history mixed up with another unit (Unit A) in that complex. Per King County parcel viewer this particular town house was last sold in 2006 for $395,500.

  3. 503

    RE: Blake @ 500
    Yes Blake

    I agree with you and David….Bush and Obama were both just Open Border Party (OBP) members pretending they’re Conservative and Liberal. David is mixing up the same two NWO puppets for OVERPOPULATION together….I voted Nader in 2008. Its that simple.

  4. 504
    Matt P says:

    RE: uwp @ 501 – That’s not so bad then. Still means unit A has lost 10% or more of their equity though unless unit A is larger?

  5. 505
    Justme says:

    Case-Shiller for November (sep-oct-nov average) is out, another drop for Seattle to 245.825707201394, peak was 258.957978645141. That’s a 5.1% drop in the index by from the peak, for 3 months centered on mid-October. The peak was centered on mid-May.

  6. 506
    Justme says:

    Here’s a graph of today’s release:

    Case-Shiller Seattle (2018-1130 last closed sale date included in data).
    https://imgur.com/a/yCvPoik

    The peak action centered on mid-May has been rather dramatic. Perhaps more so than in 2007 even?

  7. 507
    N says:

    Higher fees for those with better credit, makes sense right?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-fannie-freddie-reform-gets-underway-here-are-the-three-big-questions-for-the-housing-market-2019-01-29?mod=mw_share_twitter

    “Cross-subsidization” sounds convoluted, but it simply means that at their best, Fannie and Freddie operate like insurance companies, spreading risk broadly. They do that by charging higher fees to borrowers with better credit scores, trying to level the playing field for those whose credit isn’t as high.

    Fans of limited government usually prefer what’s sometimes called “risk-based pricing,” which sounds efficient and logical, but could mean that higher-risk borrowers are locked out of ownership entirely. That isn’t helpful for either a robust housing market or for equal access to the American Dream.

  8. 508
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 504:

    RE: uwp @ 501 – That’s not so bad then. Still means unit A has lost 10% or more of their equity though unless unit A is larger?

    Yeah, Unit A owner is probably looking at the unit on the market now with regret. They look pretty similar per Zillow pictures.

  9. 509
    Blake says:

    By Justme @ 506:

    Here’s a graph of today’s release:

    Case-Shiller Seattle (2018-1130 last closed sale date included in data).
    https://imgur.com/a/yCvPoik

    The peak action centered on mid-May has been rather dramatic. Perhaps more so than in 2007 even?

    Thanks Justme… Just look at how steeply prices rose the last few years! Totally unsustainable (given income growth) and ominous for what comes next!

  10. 510
    uwp says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 424 – How are things looking in the trenches as we wrap up January?

    The people need to know if you see/smell/hear a Spring Bounce!
    ;)

  11. 511
    Realistic says:

    RE: uwp @ 502RE: Matt P @ 504
    Yup, they look pretty much identical. One year ago unit A went pending within 2 days with multiple offers. One can only imagine the frenzy bidding almost 10% over asking. Now a similar unit is listed for less than the list price of the first one and no takers.

    The agent is not doing the seller any favors either by ignoring Redfin’s mix up. Redfin can fix such things if reported.

  12. 512
    Matt P says:

    By uwp @ 510:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 424 – How are things looking in the trenches as we wrap up January?

    The people need to know if you see/smell/hear a Spring Bounce!
    ;)

    Anecdotal of course, but I favorite properties on redfin that seem lower priced compared to last year and many have gone pending over the last few days. Seems like there is definitely a floor in the $600k range for the Seattle area on 2+ bedroom house/townhouse. Was hoping they would drop more than that.

  13. 513
    uwp says:

    By Matt P @ 512:

    Seems like there is definitely a floor in the $600k range for the Seattle area on 2+ bedroom house/townhouse. Was hoping they would drop more than that.

    Yeah, there is still not much decent in SFH under 650-700k in the areas I follow. But the 750-million range has some interesting things compared to last Spring, when it was just 750k stuff getting bid up 15%.

    I assume we still have a month or so before we can really see a pattern develop.

  14. 514
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Justme @ 505 – So given that the index is three months behind from the present, and the global economy has only deteriorated since then, where the heck is the dropping line now? I think we could see a “head and shoulders” pattern in the next couple of months.

    I only have anecdotal evidence, but the zetigeist seems to have totally flipped. The FOMO from the renters I know is pretty much gone, and the folks I know who hold valuable SFHs right now are seriously sweating. One guy I know, executive at a small company, has put his house up for sale while his new house is being built and will rent until it’s completed. A college friend I recently ran into says she wants sell her Fremont home, bought four years ago, because it has appreciated close to $400k, and she fears the market is tanking. I think that head and shoulders top is going to come right at the beginning of spring and further deflate this current mania.

    The trick for those sitting on the sidelines is to not get caught in a possible bullt trap by buying this spring. I am waiting two years at a minimum. This sucker has a long way to go!

  15. 515
    N says:

    It’s an interesting weekend to watch for traffic and pendings IF you subscribe to the Super Bowl theory as the Redfin CEO explained – Re: post 484 link.

  16. 516
  17. 517
    steven says:

    in terms of the floor price for the smaller houses, as previously stated multiple times, rich ones are the first to react and the more expensive/bigger residences are first to fall. the smaller ones fall later. it’s too premature to expect big changes in smaller units at this point.

  18. 518
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    I’ve been going to a lot of open houses in the $700k-$1.05M range. All the houses suck, even the expensive ones suck, they’re just bigger. I have only seen one house I would have bought… went off the market in two days. I don’t know if the market is going up or down but it’s no fun at all, even as a voyeur!

  19. 519
    richard says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 518 – then dont go. stop going to open houses for a few months and see what will happen.

  20. 520
    Blake says:

    Whoa!
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/28/the-chilling-thing-nvidia-just-said-about-china-tech/
    Chinese consumers have already sent global automakers for a spin. In the fourth quarter, sales of new vehicles in China – most of them manufactured in China – plunged by 13% from a year earlier. This deterioration had started in July and accelerated toward the end of the year. It dragged down new-vehicle sales for the whole year by 4%, the first annual decline in the data going back to 1990. China is GM’s largest market, but sales dropped sharply at the end of the year. And Ford sales in China, already weak going into 2018, essentially collapsed in December.

    On January 2, Apple finally confirmed these warnings, saying that revenues would be a lot worse in the quarter ended December 29 than its guidance two months ago, that iPhone revenues have dropped year-over-year, and that China’s economic problems are deeper than expected.
    (end quote)

    Read that again: “first annual decline … since 1990!”
    Pop went China! Batten down the hatches! Storm’s a brewing!

  21. 521
    Blake says:

    And this is hilarious. Tell me where I’ve read this before?
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/23/record-defaults-by-chinese-companies-fake-cash-fake-accounting/
    The chart below shows that there is very little credit risk in Chinese onshore corporate bonds, that they’re all just pristine, and that just about none will default anytime soon, according to Chinese credit ratings agencies (chart from the report by Fitch Ratings)

    Read the whole piece… seems to be a bottomless pit of fraud in China!
    “Kangde Xin Composite Material Group Co. (KDX) reported a whopping 15 billion yuan in available cash at the end of September 2018, but on January 15, 2019, it defaulted on 1 billion yuan of commercial paper.

    “Reward and KDX confirmed to Fitch shortly before their commercial paper due dates that their holdings of realisable cash were sufficient to meet obligations,” Fitch said. But that’s not how it turned out.

    “These companies did not show other typical signs of distress prior to the defaults,” Fitch notes. In other words, big cash balances, no worries, and suddenly a default out of the blue, because the cash that was supposed to be there suddenly didn’t seem to be there.”
    (end quote)

    My brother’s corp has two factories in China and tries to manage them. He says they have an aversion to telling the truth and they love cutting corners.
    Whoops!

  22. 522
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    @richard never!!!!!!

  23. 523
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 521 – It would appear Trump is winning.

  24. 524
    David says:

    By Blake @ 501:

    RE: David @ 487
    David wrote: ” It has been 12 years since the Obama Depression started to form.”

    For anyone new to this blog, David is our resident idiot. Yup… David points out that the Obama Depression started in 2007, before he was elected!!

    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
    Mark Twain

    RE: Blake @ 501 – As Obama rose in the polls, the economy went DOWN……… I suspect the same thing will happen if a Progressive Democrat looks strong against Trump. You will probably get a housing recession if that begins to happen.

  25. 525

    RE: David @ 524
    Yes David

    No more bankster welfare from either Bush of Obama under Trump….just a solid economy feeding off record IRS revenue fueling America, while China cringes. I wonder how the U of W admissions is going to protect Intellectual Property from China [by banning Chinese students?], if they care at all to help fight China? We’ve got to keep our laser technology out of China. Make local Americans students at low rates in U of W again? Educate a future Manufacturing Engineering fair trade force again?

  26. 526
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-the-case-for-raising-interest-rates-has-weakened.html

    FED CAVED! It’s all up to the wisdom of the crowds now. Things are going to get ugly.

  27. 527
    Matt P says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 526:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-the-case-for-raising-interest-rates-has-weakened.html

    FED CAVED! It’s all up to the wisdom of the crowds now. Things are going to get ugly.

    That was pretty sad, but QT seems to be on autopilot so excess liquidity is still being drained from the market.

  28. 528

    RE: uwp @ 510

    No changes yet. Yes we will have a Spring Bounce. Prices are still up YOY. Splitting out single family, not condo or townhome, lot of at least 4,000 sf. Median price for not new is up from $515k to $570k YOY. New is up from $800k to $900k. This for King County most recent 30 day closings, which is basically December offers for the most part.

    VERY few bid ups and most of the bid ups are just tie breakers. Modestly over asking just to not have a tie at full price. This even in the markets that had the most bid ups first half of last year. But people are pricing to the comps from the high, so prices are still up without the bid ups for the most part.

    I’ve been watching for signs that spec builders are still buying, but pretty much as Deerhawke noted some time ago, tear down buyers are on the sidelines. The few teardowns I did see go to spec builders vs owner occupants were out of State or out of Country speculators who are being compelled by agents. Local spec builders are pretty much gone for now. This should play out well for buyers of starter homes. Though prices are still high, they are about $100,000 less without the builders being the base with owner occupants needing to bid over them. But it’s still early. They might just be taking a bit of a wait and see and understandably so.

    The market opened as expected…the day after The Seahawks were no longer in play. Super Bowl only impacts our area IF The Seahawks are IN it. Otherwise season opens as soon as they are out of the running. We are only a couple of weeks in, so no big change in anything from last I noted my forecast.

    Required Disclaimer: Stats in this post are compiled in real time by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  29. 529
  30. 530
    sfrz says:

    Microsoft is getting lean. Layoffs per my Microsoft neighbor.
    https://www.thelayoff.com/t/XaSOjWl

  31. 531
    Matt P says:

    RE: Andrew @ 529
    Nothing in that link says anything about stopping QT. It just says they’ll use QE in the future as a last resort and rates are probably on pause for a while.

  32. 532

    RE: Andrew @ 529

    To understand what happened yesterday that pushed the markets up as to Powell’s walking back his “autopilot” comments you have to go back to his statements on December 19th.

    “In a widely-anticipated move, the Fed announced another interest-rate hike on Dec. 19, raising the benchmark lending rate to a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%.

    Market reaction was initially fairly muted, but remarks by Chair Jerome Powell during a follow-up press conference quickly sent stocks tumbling. Why?

    “Responding to a question about quantitative tightening, Powell said that the Fed’s balance sheet runoff is on autopilot – and that really seemed to spook investors,” Ristuben said, adding that he found the strong reaction somewhat surprising. “Both Powell and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen have previously talked about shrinking the balance sheet (by up to $50 billion a month) in automatic fashion,” he noted.”

    His recent comments are referring back to that point as he tries to unwind what he said a bit.

    He started walking it back on Jan 4:

    “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell used his appearance with his predecessors at an economic conference to walk back his previous comments on the Fed’s balance sheet policy.
    Powell added context to the comment that its wind-down was on “autopilot” by saying that the balance sheet wind-down was supposed to operate in the background while the Fed actively used its interest rate policy to influence the economy.
    That added to rally in stocks and a surge in bond yields, as did comments that the Fed is listening to markets and can be patient on interest rate hikes.”

    And then yesterday dropped his earlier stance:

    “Fragile equity markets forced Fed Chair Jerome Powell to pledge that the U.S. central bank will be patient with future interest rate hikes, said DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach.
    “He’s caving to the stock market. The stock market scared him,” in late 2018, Gundlach, who oversees $123 billion, said in a phone interview with Reuters.
    Powell, citing rising uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, said the case for raising rates had “weakened,” and the U.S. central bank in a post-meeting statement dropped its earlier expectation for “some further” tightening.”

    In the meantime in the mortgage markets the housing slowdown started when rates started approaching and hit 5% with a 5.11% APR. Since that time rates have receded by 1/2% to 3/4% with rate quotes hitting 4.25% with an APR of about 4.37% as recently as yesterday on conforming loans. High Balance and Jumbo often being lower than conforming.

    So as to interest rates, the eye of the storm that caused the housing change seems to have passed and Powell yesterday confirmed a more moderate stance going forward. So we should have the normal Spring Bump with prices correcting up to 10% (already happened) following the February stock market correction in lagging fashion. Housing should not correct further until and unless we see rates going back up or the stock market go into another correction. The dead cat bounce since February is just rinse and repeat of the same correction which only confirms the 10% and does not double it when it happens twice from the same high point.

  33. 533
    Eastsider says:

    Following the FMOC statement yesterday, fed funds future now has a slight bias (17.6%) towards a rate decrease by December. The expectation (80.2%) is still no rate change this year.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

  34. 534
    Greg says:

    By Blake @ 501:

    RE: David @ 487
    David wrote: ” It has been 12 years since the Obama Depression started to form.”

    For anyone new to this blog, David is our resident idiot. Yup… David points out that the Obama Depression started in 2007, before he was elected!!

    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
    Mark Twain

    Naw David is simply lying. He lacks a social outlet for his hatred of Obama and liberals so he comes here and lies to make himself feel better. I am guessing he either had no friends it they don’t put up with his anger and lies..

  35. 535
    Greg says:

    By Blake @ 520:

    Whoa!
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/28/the-chilling-thing-nvidia-just-said-about-china-tech/
    Chinese consumers have already sent global automakers for a spin. In the fourth quarter, sales of new vehicles in China – most of them manufactured in China – plunged by 13% from a year earlier. This deterioration had started in July and accelerated toward the end of the year. It dragged down new-vehicle sales for the whole year by 4%, the first annual decline in the data going back to 1990. China is GM’s largest market, but sales dropped sharply at the end of the year. And Ford sales in China, already weak going into 2018, essentially collapsed in December.

    On January 2, Apple finally confirmed these warnings, saying that revenues would be a lot worse in the quarter ended December 29 than its guidance two months ago, that iPhone revenues have dropped year-over-year, and that China’s economic problems are deeper than expected.
    (end quote)

    Read that again: “first annual decline … since 1990!”
    Pop went China! Batten down the hatches! Storm’s a brewing!

    Keep in mind nvida were selling a massive amount of cards to the crypto folks and that market has imploded so one would expect bad need with or without China issues..
    Good news is card prices should be coming down

  36. 536
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 532

    Quantitative Tightening (QT) is STILL on the autopilot setting from FOMC meeting in Sep 2017. No deviation from the scheduled bind runoff has occurred yet.

    Additionally, the Fed (FRB) has talked about letting its mortgage bond (MBS) holdings run off more aggressively than its UST (treasuries) holdings, and in fact there has even been talk of FRB doing outright selling/swapping of MBS into UST. This will create upward pressure on mortgage rates (MR). I think the spread between mortgage rates and TNX (UST 10year) will start increasing as that reality sets in. When TNX takes a dip because of flight to safety during market turmoil, mortgage rates may not follow TNX down as readily as it has recently. I’ll post a historical plot of that spread later, kind if busy today, maybe others can go to FRED and create the plot to link.

    Also, the idea that stock market is now calming again is contentious. For example, Barclay’s report today thinks volatility (meaning: violent drops) will increase and that Fed actions created short-term support at the expense of medium-term variability.

    Ever since April 2018, Seattle has been in a spring DUMP that extended all the way through Dec 2018 so far (median prices) . Ardell has better data access (NWMLS) than me, but keep in mind that last year’s spring bump quickly went sour and turned into a year-long dump.

  37. 537
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 528

    Ardell, thanks for this information and analysis.

    I am a bit surprised to hear that the market numbers are up YOY. But probably that is because the numbers still mainly reflect December sales. I am still expecting flat or up just a few percent during the spring market.

    But you are right that it is a very differentiated market. Very inexpensive SF homes and inexpensive townhouses (often without parking) have really taken off. So-so and good quality townhouses with parking listed at last spring’s prices are very quiet, mostly sitting. The SF house market is doing well, but buyers have the luxury of being very picky about price and product. Quality sells and sells relatively quickly. Mixed message or lower quality/location product sits.

    There is definitely something of a shake-out going on among developer/builders. It was inevitable. These past few years everybody’s framer, sider and finish carpenter decided that they too could be a developer/builder. They joined the 30 year old geniuses who got their start with Daddy’s money, frat buddy money, etc. How hard could building houses be? After a whopping success in 2017 (using 2015 designs and finishes), they all doubled and tripled up. Now their product is sitting and they are wondering why.

    I went through a house of one of my former subs this week. He wanted to know why the house wasn’t selling. Bad location on a busy, noisy street. No triple pane windows facing the street. No extra sound insulation to cut down the sound. 2015 flooring, finishes and trims. Lighting that screamed “Eastern European or Russian builder”. Truly odd tile choices. No unifying design theme. Minimal landscaping. A new agent attached to the deal who had no idea how to market it.

    He kept saying, “But this worked so well the year before.” You can be sure that he and others like him won’t be buying for a while.

  38. 538
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justme @ 536 – QT is no longer a sure thing.

    Fed could soon stop trimming $4.1 trillion portfolio, Powell says
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-could-soon-stop-trimming-224758881.html

  39. 539
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 537:

    He kept saying, “But this worked so well the year before.” You can be sure that he and others like him won’t be buying for a while.

    He is 100% correct. His product is a year too late. But of course we will have a spring bump! LOL.

  40. 540

    RE: Eastsider @ 539

    Spring Bump is not about prices rising. Spring Bump is about the best of resale homes coming on market in Spring and the worst of homes coming on market in November/December as the norm. It’s about the mix, and that mix elevates the median price.

    “Bump” means the shape of the price line from Jan to December with a “hump or bump” in the middle. Even the worst of years has a Spring Bump. Maybe not 2008. I’ll have to go back and look at that one. In any case, NO Spring Bump is extremely rare, especially if you look at new construction separately from resale. New construction is more even as to product from one month to another.

    Resale homes tend to have their best houses out (not condos and townhouses) within 60 days of the end of the school year. That is what causes the median price bump in Spring.

  41. 541

    RE: Justme @ 536

    I was just trying to help Andrew out there in case Matt’s short “QE” answer wasn’t enough. I think mine was enough. I never need you to agree with me on anything. You are too biased for my taste with no sincere interest in finding the truth. I’m not on your page. Your stated bias to try to creat e a buyers’ strike so you can get a low price as a result is too too biased for me.

    Keep on keeping on. We’ve got your number.

  42. 542

    RE: Deerhawke @ 537

    The oddest one I saw was a major clsterfk with a Korean builder on a high end spec. The siding had spaces between the slats. Like two inch gaps. Hello? WTF? LOL! It was a spec house in a super high end location. Paid way too much for the lot and then tried to get 3x lot and ended up with less than 2x lot and a super long hold period. Total fiasco.

    It was fun to see though. :) Like a vaudeville act and a guy slipping on a banana peel.

    Stats are a necessity, but watching what really happens at the tail end of an upswing on a case by case basis is pretty hilarious.

  43. 543
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 540 – My comment was tongue in cheek lol. In any case, most sellers believe they get the best prices in spring and worst prices (relatively) in late fall. I believe the data bears out.

    https://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index

    Note CS home prices are not based on mix. You can see prices accelerate in the spring months more than other months in the year.

  44. 544
    Matt P says:

    If interest rates falling are enough to bring out buyers again, then that is further evidence that this is a giant house of cards. A single rate point should not be the difference between a hot and tepid market. It just means anyone who buys can count on being able to sell quickly if things go south and any shock will bring it all down, which is why foreclosures continue to be historically low.

    I’m starting to come to the belief that I should just hop on the train and enjoy the ride. WA is a no recourse state after all.

  45. 545

    RE: Deerhawke @ 537

    We won’t get the real read on prices until we get further into Spring because you need 3 like kind properties that aren’t new construction that are near each other and sell near each other in time to really know where prices are. New construction hides too much downside with hidden incentives, especially those with the volume needed such as larger developments. They like to keep their prices pretty even to rising by adding more incentives like rate buydowns and including more upgrades in the price. A 5% drop in price is easier to hide in a new house. Even in resale right now a lot of the price drop isn’t showing because it is hidden in seller paid closing costs and massive home inspection repair requests.

    Low volume always hides a lot because of the mix and not enough volume when you break out the like kind products. By Spring we should have more info. CS mixes Pierce County in with King which is a laugh…tells me nothing.

  46. 546
    Unknown says:

    RE: Matt P @ 544

    No recourse as long as you only have 1 primary loan holder. If you have an 80/20 or something, the smaller loan owns you unless you BK.

  47. 547
    Eastsider says:

    By Matt P @ 544:

    I’m starting to come to the belief that I should just hop on the train and enjoy the ride. WA is a no recourse state after all.

    That’s one way to look at it, especially if you are a RE investor who can simply ‘walk away’.

    But for a homeowner to get in debt and struggles to service it, it is a terrible idea. You should always use your best judgment to see if you can afford to own a house. If prices revert to ‘historical’ range, you will be in a world of hurt if you overpay. Walking away means losing (up to) 20% deposit and incurring significant RE transaction costs.

  48. 548
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 547:

    By Matt P @ 544:

    I’m starting to come to the belief that I should just hop on the train and enjoy the ride. WA is a no recourse state after all.

    That’s one way to look at it, especially if you are a RE investor who can simply ‘walk away’.

    But for a homeowner to get in debt and struggles to service it, it is a terrible idea. You should always use your best judgment to see if you can afford to own a house. If prices revert to ‘historical’ range, you will be in a world of hurt if you overpay. Walking away means losing (up to) 20% deposit and incurring significant RE transaction costs.

    Not if you have a VA loan. I’d only lose the extra amount I was paying above what it would cost to rent the same place – because I can rent for cheaper at pretty much any size right now, only with a house I get more control over what I do with it and don’t have to fear rent hikes or being forced to move.

  49. 549
    Marcus says:

    RE: Blake @ 509RE: Blake @ 509

    If you factor in the 4 years of declining home prices beginning in 2008 with the recent up years you will find the home appreciation rate (CAGR) since 2008 to be about the same as during the prior 15-20 year period. So the recent high appreciation years should have been expected given the prior steep decline. But of course one thing you can count on from posters on this blog is the LACK of analytical skills or critical thinking before they blindly post some nonsense.

  50. 550
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 541

    LOL, all I stated was known fact about “auto-pilot” that was NOT stated by you, and added some contrary observations that speak against lower mortgage interest rates. I’d say that is no more biased than your selection of topics, Have you called out any of the bubble-mongers as being “too biased” in the last several years of bubble-mongering?

    Then there is the small matter of redefining “spring bump” as a quality bump rather than a real price bump. Does that therefore mean you expect NO bump in Case-Shiller as opposed to median?

  51. 551
    Matt P says:

    RE: Marcus @ 549 – I’d like to see the numbers on this.

  52. 552
    Rentin’ says:

    RE: Marcus @ 549

    So are you saying the previous bubble wasn’t a bubble? If the home appreciation rate since the peak of the last bubble has been (averaged out) to be the same rate of increase compared to the prior 15-20 year period before the last bubble, then would we not be in a bubble now? Or was the last bubble not real? Just trying to understand your point here…

  53. 553
    Matt P says:

    By Rentin’ @ 552:

    RE: Marcus @ 549

    So are you saying the previous bubble wasn’t a bubble? If the home appreciation rate since the peak of the last bubble has been (averaged out) to be the same rate of increase compared to the prior 15-20 year period before the last bubble, then would we not be in a bubble now? Or was the last bubble not real? Just trying to understand your point here…

    I’m pretty sure it’s a load of bull since if you take out the trough, you also need to remove the peak which caused the trough and once you do that, it’s pretty clear we’re in another bubble.

  54. 554
    Rentin’ says:

    RE: Matt P @ 553 – my thoughts exactly.

  55. 555
    steven says:

    RE: Rentin’ @ 554

    obviously he’s just another idiot thinkin he’s smarter than the others in this blog

  56. 556
    NW says:

    The guts. Sick to my stomach.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2603-NE-82nd-St-98115/home/315201

    Jan 31, 2019 Listed: $1,050,000
    Jan 6, 2015 Sold: $520,000

    Redfin Estimate: $1,095,393

  57. 557
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: NW @ 556

    This price doesnt make any sense to me. I assumed that at price it would be a developable double lot, but it is not.

    Part of the reason that builders tend to be wary of this area around Dahl field is that many of the lots in this area are underlain with a thick layer of peat. I would never buy a lot here or in certain parts of Greenwood north of 85th Street without having a geotech come out with a drill.

  58. 558
    uwp says:

    By NW @ 556:

    The guts. Sick to my stomach.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2603-NE-82nd-St-98115/home/315201

    Yikes!
    I like the view of the parking lot behind them.

    Needs a 25% price cut.

  59. 559
    Matt P says:

    By steven @ 555:

    RE: Rentin’ @ 554

    obviously he’s just another idiot thinkin he’s smarter than the others in this blog

    Still no need to resort to name calling.

  60. 560
    steven says:

    By Marcus @ 549:

    RE: Blake @ 509RE: Blake @ 509

    But of course one thing you can count on from posters on this blog is the LACK of analytical skills or critical thinking before they blindly post some nonsense.

    RE: Matt P @ 559

    excuse me?

  61. 561
    steven says:

    RE: Matt P @ 559

    ‘”But of course one thing you can count on from posters on this blog is the LACK of analytical skills or critical thinking before they blindly post some nonsense”

    excuse me?

  62. 562
    Matt P says:

    By steven @ 560:

    RE: Matt P @ 559

    ‘”But of course one thing you can count on from posters on this blog is the LACK of analytical skills or critical thinking before they blindly post some nonsense”

    excuse me?

    Or to stoop to his level.

  63. 563
    northender says:

    Tim’s got another interesting article on Redfin’s blog.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/2019/01/q4-redfin-migration-report-seattle-reclaims-migration-destination-status.html

    His data shows that houses in our region are getting a lot of interest from outsiders, with a third of Seattle searches coming from folks in the Bay Area, where of course housing is much more expensive.

    I said awhile ago that I don’t know what will happen with housing prices here in the short term and that’s still true because like the stock market, no one without inside info can know the short term. And there’s not really inside info for real estate… But my feeling is that this cool down after the feeding frenzy that was going on in the first 6 months of last year won’t get any colder and will in fact be warming up soon. Interest rates should not be climbing any more for awhile. Despite Amazon’s new office locations they aren’t leaving town and lots of other big and small tech companies are expanding here. I just looked online and from what I can see mortgage rates have dropped and are just a hair above what they were a year ago. Other than that, what has changed in the past year? Are there more tech jobs here now or fewer? Is the UW getting bigger or smaller? Is the Gates Foundation getting more funding or less? Have there been any significant layoffs here? Are Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, or Costco doing poorly? Is Google stopping work on its new SLU campus? After a big drop AMZN is back up to where it was last June. I know some people are crossing their fingers and hoping that housing prices are going to collapse but I do not see how that can happen – there are too many/much jobs, money, and demand here.

    If I am missing some recent fundamental negative change please point it out and enlighten the rest of us.

  64. 564
    Matt P says:

    RE: northender @ 562 – 3600 people searching from outside the region doesn’t seem like it would make any sort of difference.

  65. 565
    uwp says:

    By northender @ 563:

    Other than that, what has changed in the past year? Are there more tech jobs here now or fewer? Is the UW getting bigger or smaller? Is the Gates Foundation getting more funding or less? Have there been any significant layoffs here? Are Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, or Costco doing poorly? Is Google stopping work on its new SLU campus?

    Speaking of local employers…

    “Facebook has grown as fast as any company in the Seattle area in recent years, but it has done so while keeping details close to the vest, for the most part. But the company today disclosed the size of its massive, sprawling footprint throughout the region: 2.7 million square feet and counting.”

    “Facebook said late last year its Seattle-area headcount topped 3,000 people, but that number is sure to increase exponentially as the company fills in these new buildings. Using conventional office space ratios as an estimate, Facebook’s future capacity could be somewhere between 13,500 to 18,000 people. However, much of the Oculus campus is for lab and research space, requiring more space per employee, so the capacity is probably somewhere close to 10,000.”

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/facebook-reveals-size-seattle-footprint-confirms-mysterious-oculus-building-x/

  66. 566
    ess says:

    RE: uwp @ 565

    More speaking of local employers……

    Boeing hired more than 8K employees in WA state in 2018 and will continue to add to that amount as they increase the number of current models being produced, and if they design and build new ones in this area such as the 777X. Boeing employment is not in the news all the time as are the high tech companies, but not only is Boeing increasing its local employee force, there are years of back orders , which should result in stable employment numbers in the following years.

    Amazon isn’t leaving town, other high tech companies are still growing, and Boeing keeps on chugging along. Seattle is still considered one of the cities younger professional workers still want to move to. All of that is positive for both the sale and rent of real estate in the Puget Sound area.

  67. 567

    Sanctuary City Seattle is #2 “Booze Guzzler” City in America

    The young adults are shifting to hard liquor now….more kick. Sanctuary City San Diego is #1.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/diageo-toasts-us-millennials-as-it-surpasses-half-year-revenue-and-profit-targets-2019-01-31

  68. 568

    RE: ess @ 566
    Most Jobs Just Require a Box of Asian Parts and Pliars and Screw Driver

    The Machinists pay at Boeing Lower Tiers:

    Is like $12/hr green worker, or if you pay for your own certification training, perhaps $15/hr….pensions were decimated too. More Burger Flipping Jobs IOWs like AMZ warehouse pay levels [$13/hr]….

    Where’s the Manufacturing Engineers OBP? In your OBP Mother Goose Fairy Tale fiction book? LOL

    I’m so glad Japan and China are getting rich off Seattle’s Manufacturing losses? Not.

  69. 569
    Blake says:

    By Marcus @ 549:

    RE: Blake @ 509RE: Blake @ 509

    If you factor in the 4 years of declining home prices beginning in 2008 with the recent up years you will find the home appreciation rate (CAGR) since 2008 to be about the same as during the prior 15-20 year period. So the recent high appreciation years should have been expected given the prior steep decline. But of course one thing you can count on from posters on this blog is the LACK of analytical skills or critical thinking before they blindly post some nonsense.

    Sorry Marcus. I’ll try not to post any more nonsense about the asymptotic rise in housing prices prior to sharp declines on this housing bubble blog! You are right, if we ignore that *little* blip in housing prices back in 2007-2011 housing prices have been consistently rising! ;-)

    If you want to understand more about market-driven bubbles and manias I suggest Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics, and Crashes .” You’ll see towards the latter phases of bubbles prices tend to rise rather steeply… before they drop.
    http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/the-enduring-relevance-of-manias-panics-and-crashes

    But Kindleberger was just a professor at MIT, so you might also find his analytic skills lacking. As for mine, I have degrees in Systems Engineering and Biostatistics and over two dozen published manuscripts in medical journals. I’ll try not to “blindly post” anything as ridiculous in the future in order to avoid your wrath.

    Pro tip: Now is a GREAT time to buy Marcus!!

  70. 570
    Justme says:

    RE: northender @ 563

    That was quite the laundry list of bubble-monger talking points with no substance behind it.

    >>lots of other big and small tech companies are expanding here.

    Lots? Where is the jobs data? Well, at least uwp linked an article

    RE: uwp @ 565

    But, that was some pretty selective quoting there, uwp. How about this quote from the VERY SAME article for a more realistic take on jobs

    >>Facebook lists a total of 415 job openings in Seattle and Redmond combined.

    Wow!! 415 jobs coming soon!! Someone call AT&T and ask them to open a new area code!! Where will all these 415 people live? Now that there is a 10.5% apartment vacancy rate in Seattle? This could be a big problem! BUY NOW! PAY PEAK PRICES!

    By the way, did y’all see the news 4 days ago that Amazon has chosen not to occupy Rainier Square tower? Or was that news item inconvenient to the buy! now! narrative?

    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/01/28/source-amazon-will-market-rainier-square-tower-for.html

    QUOTE: The news that more than 720,000 square feet of unoccupied space is coming to the market takes much of the steam out of the Puget Sound region’s commercial real estate market.

    It must be Bubble-Monger Friday. The REIC propaganda department has been in overdrive sinced yesterday. Loads and loads of unsourced and/or unsubstantiated claims, as well as outright bullshit being posted.

  71. 571
    N says:

    Behind a paywall but the headline caught my eye.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/01/28/source-amazon-will-market-rainier-square-tower-for.html

    Source: Amazon will market Rainier Square tower for sublease

  72. 572
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 570:

    By the way, did y’all see the news 4 days ago that Amazon has chosen not to occupy Rainier Square tower? Or was that news item inconvenient to the buy! now! narrative?

    Hi Justme.
    That article was posted in this very thread the day it came out (See comment #493). But thanks for keeping us all up to date! When you have a lack of negative news, it is helpful to just repost articles over and over.

    Loads and loads of unsourced and/or unsubstantiated claims, as well as outright bullshit being posted.

  73. 573
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 572

    Great post, uwp.

  74. 574
    S-Crow says:

    Snohomish County January sales down about -19% YOY vs Jan 2018.

    DESPITE the local and national employment news sales have declined and prices are under pressure in markets on the west coast. Spring bump in sales or Spring bump in prices? Spring is always seasonally more busy so that’s not news. What will be news is if inventory is gobbled up locally from March through end of May and sales meet or exceed YOY figures. I’m betting no.

    Rates coming down from 5.25% this past Fall to 4.25% today will be welcome news to the lending industry (understatement) .

    Concessions are common in sales I see.
    ——————————————————-
    Good luck to all you New England Patriots Fans. Hopefully mother nature will blanket Crystal and Stevens Ski areas with some fresh pow this weekend. I hiked to the top of Icicle Ridge in the snow last weekend in Leavenworth. It was hard but worth it climbing through the clouds at elevation and the Sun shining on the mountains for miles around.

    S-Crow

  75. 575
    David says:

    I see 304,000 new jobs were added this month in spite of the Government ‘workers’ not being on the job. All the people pulling for a recession in time for the election might not be getting their wish.

    If interest rates continue to fall then housing should pick up – IN SPITE of the $5k-Net-Worth-Negatarians that hang out in here.

  76. 576
    Notme says:

    The dog is so sad
    renters can’t afford houses
    all genuine, too!

    -a bubble haiku

  77. 577
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Notme @ 576 – Haha. Nice.

  78. 578
    ess says:

    By David @ 575:

    I see 304,000 new jobs were added this month in spite of the Government ‘workers’ not being on the job. All the people pulling for a recession in time for the election might not be getting their wish.

    If interest rates continue to fall then housing should pick up – IN SPITE of the $5k-Net-Worth-Negatarians that hang out in here.

    People are pulling for a housing pullback and for housing prices to go down. The problem with dropping house prices and reduced construction is that housing construction is such a large part of our economy that a weak housing market often reflects a weak economy. And when there is a weak economy, there is often a recession including a corresponding increase of unemployment. Yes, housing prices may drop precipitously, but those hoping for that drop may not benefit when unemployment dramatically increases and they too are without a job. Being unemployed will certainly not enable one to purchase a house – indeed – the unemployment benefits may not cover all expenses including rent, especially when those benefits are terminated. As they say = sometimes what people wish for comes true, and it isn’t all that great. Because it always isn’t the other guy to get the pink slip.

  79. 579
    Cap”n says:

    Hi Ardell. A while back you posted something about pricing. Something like to never list a home at $999,999 because it’s better to list at round numbers or on the 25k increments. I didn’t find the thread and was hoping you could repeat your advice/rationale. Asking for a friend……

  80. 580
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ess @ 578 – That is a lot of spin. Many people believe the economy is in late stage of business cycle and a recession is imminent. Nobody ‘wishes’ for a recession. Same for home prices. People are getting cautious after years of double digit gains. And prices have declined despite bright employment picture.

    Odds of a recession spike to a three-year high, according to CNBC’s Fed survey
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/recession-odds-spike-to-their-highest-in-three-years-cnbc-survey.html

  81. 581
    David says:

    Construction also ticked up, led by housing.

  82. 582
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 575:

    I see 304,000 new jobs were added this month in spite of the Government ‘workers’ not being on the job. All the people pulling for a recession in time for the election might not be getting their wish.

    If interest rates continue to fall then housing should pick up – IN SPITE of the $5k-Net-Worth-Negatarians that hang out in here.

    Serious question, but how many of those 304k were gov workers going out to get a job because they were no longer getting a paycheck? Maybe some permanently switched and next month will show a drop in gov workers.

  83. 583
    richard says:

    RE: ess @ 578
    yes, unfortunately recession is pretty much the only shot that renters have to be able to buy in this super housing bubble market. Some renter with good cash reserve , lucky to have a job and brave enough to buy will benefit. Maybe it is worth it since renters are kind of victim with and without recession. If the housing market is healthy, everyone should be fine. But with distorted market. somebody is always in pain, right now, it is the renters who suffer the pain. Hopefully when recession comes, the pain will be speeded around a little bit since the people ask for it.
    I am not being dark, I am just telling the truth.

  84. 584
    Justme says:

    Weekend update PREVIEW

    If Redfin can be trusted reporting new listings correctly, there is a small-scale tsunami of SFH new listings hitting the KC (King County) housing market before this weekend.

    All I can say is O-M-G !! This year, nobody is waiting until after SuperBowl Sunday. Rather they are getting a jump on the selling competition by listing *before* Superbowl Sunday. Right now I see 315 new home listings in the last 36 hours, and most of them are SFH. 2018 and 2017 had nothing the like of this on Superbowl Friday, at least judging from data available from Tim’s historical inventory data.

    I think any attempt at a spring price bump is going to be cancelled with this kind of competition. It looks to me like FONGO (Fear Of Not Getting Out) is kicking into high gear.

  85. 585
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 584:

    Weekend update PREVIEW

    If Redfin can be trusted reporting new listings correctly, there is a small-scale tsunami of SFH new listings hitting the KC (King County) housing market before this weekend.

    All I can say is O-M-G !! This year, nobody is waiting until after SuperBowl Sunday. Rather they are getting a jump on the selling competition by listing *before* Superbowl Sunday. Right now I see 315 new home listings in the last 36 hours, and most of them are SFH. 2018 and 2017 had nothing the like of this on Superbowl Friday, at least judging from data available from Tim’s historical inventory data.

    I think any attempt at a spring price bump is going to be cancelled with this kind of competition. It looks to me like FONGO (Fear Of Not Getting Out) is kicking into high gear.

    Anecdotally, I saw quite a few pendings throughout the week and not many new listings then today, a wave of them hit especially on the east side where there was nothing before below $800k.

  86. 586

    RE: Cap”n @ 579

    Double hits on the x000,000 is very important.

    If your friend prices at $1,000,000
    If someone puts in $900,000 to $1,000,000, they will see your friend.
    If someone puts in $1,000,000 to $1,100,000, they will see your friend.

    Double hits. They get anyone starting at a million plus anyone starting lower and stopping at a million.

    If your friend prices at $999,999
    If someone puts in $900,000 to $1,000,000 they will see your friend.
    If someone puts in $1,000,000 to $1,100,000, your friend’s house becomes INVISIBLE both on a search AND for an instant alert of a new listing.

    I’m testing this as some sights may have a rounding feature. I found a house listed at $999,999 (yes some still do it) that is not sold and I’m looking for it on a couple of public sites to see if the above still holds true.

    Trying Redfin first. $950k to $1M I see it. $1M to $1.25M It disappears. I’m going to test a $1,000,000 house now on the same site to see if I see it twice. Yes. I do. Double Hits on the round number.

    Trying Windermere. $950,000 to $1M I see it. $1M to $1.1M it disappears. Price at $1,000,000 I see it twice. Double hits.

    The price points with the most zeros are the most important to not be a 999er. The increments depends on the price. Just go to a few public sites and search for property in your friend’s zip code and the drop down menu when you hit price will give you the increments.

    If your friend is pricing at $999,999 hoping to sell at $950,000, maybe that’s OK. It’s worse to price at $1,050,000 than $999,999. The 59ers and 09ers in lower price range as in $209,950 and $259,950 causes them to miss most of their market. So being a hair over the drop down price menu option is worse than being a hair under most of the time.

    But why miss all of those eyes on your property? Go for the double hits. $1,000,000 gets you all of the eyes looking “up to a million” plus all of the eyes starting at a million. Get the broader exposure.

    We used to use $999,999 and $999,899 and $999,799 back when we used mls books. I won’t go into the why of that since it is an obsolete strategy now that we have computers. :)

  87. 587
  88. 588
    Matt P says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 586:

    RE: Cap”n @ 579

    Double hits on the x000,000 is very important.

    If your friend prices at $1,000,000
    If someone puts in $900,000 to $1,000,000, they will see your friend.
    If someone puts in $1,000,000 to $1,100,000, they will see your friend.

    Double hits. They get anyone starting at a million plus anyone starting lower and stopping at a million.

    If your friend prices at $999,999
    If someone puts in $900,000 to $1,000,000 they will see your friend.
    If someone puts in $1,000,000 to $1,100,000, your friend’s house becomes INVISIBLE both on a search AND for an instant alert of a new listing.

    I’m testing this as some sights may have a rounding feature. I found a house listed at $999,999 (yes some still do it) that is not sold and I’m looking for it on a couple of public sights to see if the above still holds true.

    Trying Redfin first. $950k to $1M I see it. $1M to $1.25M It disappears. I’m going to test a $1,000,000 house now on the same site to see if I see it twice. Yes. I do. Double Hits on the round number.

    Trying Windermere. $950,000 to $1M I see it. $1M to $1.1M it disappears. Price at $1,000,000 I see it twice. Double hits.

    The price points with the most zeros are the most important to not be a 999er. The increments depends on the price. Just go to a few public sites and search for property in your friend’s zip code and the drop down menu when you hit price will give you the increments.

    If your friend is pricing at $999,999 hoping to sell at $950,000, maybe that’s OK. It’s worse to price at $1,050,000 than $999,999. The 59ers and 09ers in lower price range as in $209,950 and $259,950 causes them to miss most of their market. So being a hair over the drop down price menu option is worse than being a hair under most of the time.

    But why miss all of those eyes on your property? Go for the double hits. $1,000,000 gets you all of the eyes looking “up to a million” plus all of the eyes starting at a million. Get the broader exposure.

    We used to use $999,999 and $999,899 and $999,799 back when we used mls books. I won’t go into the why of that since it is an obsolete strategy now that we have computers. :)

    Could there be a negative thought from the psychological threshold of a million? There’s a lot of studies on this that say pricing at $9.99 is better than $10 because of the way the human mind works.

  89. 589
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    The full weekend update will be posted shortly. It may take some time to escape moderation.

  90. 590
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    As always, click on the link, then click once more for enlarged view. The graphs compare 2019,2018,2017 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year.

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017,2018,2019 on 2019-02-02
    https://imgur.com/a/QlANHoH

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017,2018,2019 on 2019-02-02
    https://imgur.com/a/N77pQK7

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017 on 2019-02-02
    https://imgur.com/a/4dIu1Sp

    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017 on 2019-02-02
    https://imgur.com/a/TaE4Mt2

    The 2019 prime-time listing season is off to a dramatic early start in the KC/SFH market. There is a very pronounced spike in the SFH listing inventory this week, with most of the new listings being released on Friday. Further notable is that yesterday was the Superbowl Friday. That is, the Friday *before* the Superbowl weekend. Traditionally, most agents have advised sellers to wait until AFTER the Superbowl weekend to kick off the listing and selling season. Not so this year. Based on historical data, such a big 2019 pre-Superbowl listing spike has not been seen since the bubble-bust years of 2008-2011. It looks to me that FONGO (Fear Of Not Getting Out) is kicking into high gear in King County. Sellers are very eager to get on the market before things start getting really ugly for them. What happened to the supposed “shortgage” of SFH for sale in King County? There was no shortage. What happened in 2013-2018 was that the incessant REIC propaganda about supposedly “low supply” backfired on commission-seeking agents, as more and more potential sellers homeowners decided to sit out the market in the hope of further gains. Now these recalcitrant sellers realize that the bubble train has left the station and is accelerating down the track towards Bustville.

    My guess is that a spring price bump (in Case-Shiller Seattle index) is now out of the question. It appears that the buyer strike is working quite well, and patience among buyers will be further rewarded. With 10.5% apartment vacancy rate in Seattle, there is absolutely no hurry to buy. No doubt the REIC will be spewing massive amounts of buy! now! propaganda and falsehoods this spring. Don’t fall for it. Always demand hard, well-sourced and vetted data on jobs, wages, population, foreign buyers and why moss suddenly should so much more expensive.

  91. 591

    RE: sfrz @ 530
    IMO Its More Diabolical Than That

    They lay off their more experienced livable pay workers and trade then in for foreign H-1B lower pay slaves or lower tier younger green workers with no pensions to support the retirees….then charge ’em a million dollars for a Sammamish moss pit house on dinky lot.

  92. 592
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: uwp @ 572 – You do the exact same thing. I’ve lost count of how many times you’ve recycled the possibility that Facebook might be adding some more jobs around here.

    And the story of Amazon abandoning their entire Rainier Square high rise is obviously a much bigger deal.

  93. 593
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 570:

    Wow!! 415 jobs coming soon!! Someone call AT&T and ask them to open a new area code!! Where will all these 415 people live? Now that there is a 10.5% apartment vacancy rate in Seattle? This could be a big problem! BUY NOW! PAY PEAK PRICES!

    By the way, did y’all see the news 4 days ago that Amazon has chosen not to occupy Rainier Square tower? Or was that news item inconvenient to the buy! now! narrative?
    ………….

    QUOTE: The news that more than 720,000 square feet of unoccupied space is coming to the market takes much of the steam out of the Puget Sound region’s commercial real estate market.

    I see you are a fan of the biz journal. Did you see the article in November where Facebook signed up for 1.1 million square feet of unfinished office space on Dexter? (About half that space had been announced for Amazon in November 2017, but they pulled out before signing any leases.)

    Or the one last week where Facebook just signed a 13 year lease on over 300,000 sf in a Bellevue building that won’t be ready for occupancy until next January?

    Should I mention the 600,000 sf in Redmond that Facebook is trying to build themselves?

    Sounds like someone at Facebook is planning for a lot more than 415 new employees, even now.

    As for Amazon, they still have more than 2 million sf of new space coming on line over the next 3 years.

    It must be Bubble-Monger Friday. The REIC propaganda department has been in overdrive sinced yesterday. Loads and loads of unsourced and/or unsubstantiated claims, as well as outright bullshit being posted.

    I am pleased to see your high standards. I am sure you hold yourself accountable to the same degree.

    So have you finally sourced or substantiated your claim that a new house in the neighborhood causes prices of the neighbors to double?

    Also, did you straighten out the folks at Oxford Dictionary about the nonexistence of the word “relationally”?

    Because I just looked, and it is still there, (sidelight: they didn’t have a match for FONGO, not that that’s a problem for my personally lower standards).

  94. 594
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 592 – More regurgitation of the same possibility of Facebook expanding here. The more times this same possibility is repeated, the more likely it is to really happen! Home prices are going to go through the roof! Buy now!!

  95. 595
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 593 – Freshly signed contracts mean Facebook is betting many tens of millions of dollars that they will need the space. This seems better evidence than the uninformed speculation of some internet poster. There will always be those whose perception of the future is limited to today’s help wanted listings. Don’t be one of them.

    Also, I never said prices are going through the roof, or that you should buy now. If you can’t see past today, you should never buy.

  96. 596
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 594 – Of all the factors that go into a real estate market, whether or not Facebook has signed a lease is an insignificant drop in the bucket. It’s pointless to try and use that to divine anything about the market going forward.

    Less trees, more forest Bro.

  97. 597

    RE: Matt P @ 588

    Those studies have been done and redone for over 125 years and are applicable to some products more than others. These days the thinking as to even those products that have used the $.99 in the past is that it only works on dummies. In a sophisticated market like real estate that costs a million dollars give or take, the buyer is more often going to resent the thinking that they can be duped into thinking that $999,999 is “cheaper” than a million. Also with new, and now not so new, technology the buyer has already faced the dreaded $1,000,000 when they hit the price on the drop down menu to begin their search. So that impact has already been surpassed before they find your house. The broader exposure of the double hits is worth more than trying to play the mind game.

    Also in Residential Real Estate you don’t want to set up any kind of trickery. If you are trying to play a mind game as to your choice of List Price, what else may you be doing to try to trick the buyer’s mind into thinking something is better than it actually is? It’s a bad setup anyway you slice it.

    That said, use of 9’s and oddball numbers do have their place when the players understand the code. We haven’t done that during the hot and low inventory years, but you may see a comeback if we get to a normal market where the buyer is trying to choose from 5 to 12 good houses that meet their parameters. We are not nearly there yet.

    I don’t know if you have every played pinochle with partners. When I was a kid I would get into trouble playing the 2 early on if I didn’t have the ace of the same suit. Starting out with the 2 let your partner (and everyone else) know that you had the ace. I remember my brother yelling at me “Why did you play the 2 if you didn’t have the Ace!!!” A lesson learned. There are times when we use the 9 that way in markets where you leave room in the price and code it for the benefit of other agents who know the old school code. I’m pretty sure those days are over too because most agents haven’t been around during a “normal” market of high inventory.

    If you price at $409,000,, that means the seller is going to freak out at any offer without a $400k on the front. The normal response is then to go with the $400,000 offer and stick to your guns or go with $390,000 signalling the other agent to do the “meet me half way” at $400,000 strategy. This more popular back when all agents represented the seller.

    We used the 9s to show flexibility of $10,000. $399,999 meant $390k or better and $409,000 meant $400 and not a penny less without a big fight.

    But today people are much more sophisticated and the agent for the buyer represents the buyer and not the seller. So playing silly mind games or coding the price is pretty much out of style for good.

    Go for the double hits because it is the best marketing strategy to get the most eyes on the property. No smoke and mirrors.

    Even staging should be done with respect for the buyers and not to trick them by concealing something with the staging. You always stage a bedroom to show the most bed that fits as an assistance to the buyer. Empty bedrooms can create a confusing visual that causes a buyer to say “does a bed even fit in here?” or “Does this room fit a King Size Bed?” You want to put beds in the bedrooms and put a sign that not only says “Please Do Not Sit on the Bed. Thank you. It is not a real bed.”, you also want to add the bed size to that sign. Queen Size Bed as example. For the smallest bedroom I try to put two fake twin sized beds. It better answers the question “Does this room even fit a bed?” by showing not only one, but two of them with the night stand in the middle.

    You want to assist the buyer by adding knowledge, not try to trick them. When you go with all zeros on the price you help the $1M plus buyer see that they may not have to spend their full budget by showing a perfectly good house at the beginning of their budget vs hiding it from them at $999,999. You want to maintain the highest integrity and not start out with a trick of any kind.

  98. 598
    Matt P says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 596 – Thanks for the long explanation, appreciate it.

  99. 599
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 595:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 594 – Of all the factors that go into a real estate market, whether or not Facebook has signed a lease is an insignificant drop in the bucket. It’s pointless to try and use that to divine anything about the market going forward.

    Less trees, more forest Bro.

    Facebook moving on 2 million sf in new space and Amazon still taking down another 2 million sf of new but previously committed space are not remotely drops in the bucket for a market this size. Justme wanted to highlight, (without disagreement from you), that the biz journal thinks 720,000 sf is a market mover.

    And the timing of planned occupancy tells us a lot about what they are planning one, two, seven years in the future. It is a lot of people, probably 20,000 between them. And this doesn’t count smaller 2018 Facebook leases aggregating 132,000 sf or Google’s lease on 600,000 in SLU, or Regus Spaces 300,000 sf lease in 2U. Will some of this absorb some smaller expiring leases? Quite possibly, but there’s no way it’s even half this number. Growth, like winter, is coming. Sorry.

  100. 600
    Realistic says:

    By Justme @ 589:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    The full weekend update will be posted shortly. It may take some time to escape moderation.

    The moderation takes quite a while, unfortunately. Is there any way Tim could put you on the “safe list” so your posts with links get approved automatically?

  101. 601
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 598 – Whatever makes you feel better.

  102. 602
    Matt P says:

    By Realistic @ 599:

    By Justme @ 589:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    The full weekend update will be posted shortly. It may take some time to escape moderation.

    The moderation takes quite a while, unfortunately. Is there any way Tim could put you on the “safe list” so your posts with links get approved automatically?

    Or post fake links with a space in between so we can cut and paste and then remove the space

  103. 603
    Justme says:

    Lots of big numbers being thrown around about leases here and leases there, and occupying buildings here and there. These posts about leasing plans have been going on for years, with the bubble mongers breathlessly speaking of various tech companies supposedly expanding in town.

    But the employment numbers do not jibe with the big office space numbers being thrown around. And how much double-counting in all these repeated posts? And how is Amazon ditching 720k ft2 in a brand new building, but then *supposedly* signing 2000k ft2 in other buildings? How much is just letters of intent rather than leases? How much is just consolidation of smaller spaces, but with no new employees?

    It’s all a big mess of big numbers, just like the REIC propaganda department likes it. Does anyone feel like taking on the task of doing the market search and creating a spreadsheet of all these, with areal sizes, dates, company names, whether a lease or a letter of intent, lease durations, etc? Also a list of the current leaseholds of Amazon (etc) would be useful, of course with expiration dates. And leases that were consolidated before. Is there a trend there?

    Finally, keep in mind: Once a recession or an individual company downturn hits, much of these grand office plans will go out the window and quick. Amazon revenue forecast was weak for Q1, and stock price has been dropping back to 1626. Facebook? My impression is that user engagement has been dramatically declining since the 2016 post-election drama period. FB also have all kinds of trouble because of their privacy-breaking behavior, and took a big dump from 219 to 123 before recovering to 165 this week after earnings. There is going to be a bumpy road ahead for many tech companies.

    With so many SFH houses hitting the market this week (of all weeks), it clear many homeowners want out. What do they know that is not reflected by rosy office space leasing numbers?

  104. 604
    Justme says:

    RE: Realistic @ 599
    RE: Matt P @ 601

    I tried to promote the 4 graphs to a “public” gallery on imgur, see if that works for anyone. Maybe an account is needed? Give it a try. Someone please post a one-liner if it works for you. Text from original post also attached,

    https://imgur.com/user/justbubble/posts

    Would be great if Tim granted me a 4 link limit :).

    ————————————————————————————————————-

    The 2019 prime-time listing season is off to a dramatic early start in the KC/SFH market. There is a very pronounced spike in the SFH listing inventory this week, with most of the new listings being released on Friday. Further notable is that yesterday was the Superbowl Friday. That is, the Friday *before* the Superbowl weekend. Traditionally, most agents have advised sellers to wait until AFTER the Superbowl weekend to kick off the listing and selling season. Not so this year. Based on historical data, such a big 2019 pre-Superbowl listing spike has not been seen since the bubble-bust years of 2008-2011. It looks to me that FONGO (Fear Of Not Getting Out) is kicking into high gear in King County. Sellers are very eager to get on the market before things start getting really ugly for them. What happened to the supposed “shortgage” of SFH for sale in King County? There was no shortage. What happened in 2013-2018 was that the incessant REIC propaganda about supposedly “low supply” backfired on commission-seeking agents, as more and more potential sellers homeowners decided to sit out the market in the hope of further gains. Now these recalcitrant sellers realize that the bubble train has left the station and is accelerating down the track towards Bustville.

    My guess is that a spring price bump (in Case-Shiller Seattle index) is now out of the question. It appears that the buyer strike is working quite well, and patience among buyers will be further rewarded. With 10.5% apartment vacancy rate in Seattle, there is absolutely no hurry to buy. No doubt the REIC will be spewing massive amounts of buy! now! propaganda and falsehoods this spring. Don’t fall for it. Always demand hard, well-sourced and vetted data on jobs, wages, population, foreign buyers and why moss suddenly should be so much more expensive.

  105. 605
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Justme @ 602 – Thank you for spelling this out, I didn’t have the patience to do it.

  106. 606
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 603:

    RE: Realistic @ 599
    RE: Matt P @ 601

    I tried to promote the 4 graphs to a “public” gallery on imgur, see if that works for anyone. Maybe an account is needed? Give it a try. Someone please post a one-liner if it works for you. Text from original post also attached,

    https://imgur.com/user/justbubble/posts

    Would be great if Tim granted me a 4 link limit :).

    ————————————————————————————————————-

    The 2019 prime-time listing season is off to a dramatic early start in the KC/SFH market. There is a very pronounced spike in the SFH listing inventory this week, with most of the new listings being released on Friday. Further notable is that yesterday was the Superbowl Friday. That is, the Friday *before* the Superbowl weekend. Traditionally, most agents have advised sellers to wait until AFTER the Superbowl weekend to kick off the listing and selling season. Not so this year. Based on historical data, such a big 2019 pre-Superbowl listing spike has not been seen since the bubble-bust years of 2008-2011. It looks to me that FONGO (Fear Of Not Getting Out) is kicking into high gear in King County. Sellers are very eager to get on the market before things start getting really ugly for them. What happened to the supposed “shortgage” of SFH for sale in King County? There was no shortage. What happened in 2013-2018 was that the incessant REIC propaganda about supposedly “low supply” backfired on commission-seeking agents, as more and more potential sellers homeowners decided to sit out the market in the hope of further gains. Now these recalcitrant sellers realize that the bubble train has left the station and is accelerating down the track towards Bustville.

    My guess is that a spring price bump (in Case-Shiller Seattle index) is now out of the question. It appears that the buyer strike is working quite well, and patience among buyers will be further rewarded. With 10.5% apartment vacancy rate in Seattle, there is absolutely no hurry to buy. No doubt the REIC will be spewing massive amounts of buy! now! propaganda and falsehoods this spring. Don’t fall for it. Always demand hard, well-sourced and vetted data on jobs, wages, population, foreign buyers and why moss suddenly should be so much more expensive.

    The one link works a charm, thanks. The SFH spike Friday lines up with what I was noticing.

  107. 607
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 602:

    Lots of big numbers being thrown around about leases here and leases there, and occupying buildings here and there. These posts about leasing plans have been going on for years, with the bubble mongers breathlessly speaking of various tech companies supposedly expanding in town.

    But the employment numbers do not jibe with the big office space numbers being thrown around. And how much double-counting in all these repeated posts? And how is Amazon ditching 720k ft2 in a brand new building, but then *supposedly* signing 2000k ft2 in other buildings? How much is just letters of intent rather than leases? How much is just consolidation of smaller spaces, but with no new employees?

    It’s all a big mess of big numbers, just like the REIC propaganda department likes it. Does anyone feel like taking on the task of doing the market search and creating a spreadsheet of all these, with areal sizes, dates, company names, whether a lease or a letter of intent, lease durations, etc? Also a list of the current leaseholds of Amazon (etc) would be useful, of course with expiration dates. And leases that were consolidated before. Is there a trend there?

    Finally, keep in mind: Once a recession or an individual company downturn hits, much of these grand office plans will go out the window and quick. Amazon revenue forecast was weak for Q1, and stock price has been dropping back to 1626. Facebook? My impression is that user engagement has been dramatically declining since the 2016 post-election drama period. FB also have all kinds of trouble because of their privacy-breaking behavior, and took a big dump from 219 to 123 before recovering to 165 this week after earnings. There is going to be a bumpy road ahead for many tech companies.

    With so many SFH houses hitting the market this week (of all weeks), it clear many homeowners want out. What do they know that is not reflected by rosy office space leasing numbers?

    Not that many big numbers, and except for the 600,000 sf Facebook owned development, all signed leases – not leasing plans, not letters of intent. Just poor Justme trying to justbury what facts we have as quickly as he can. Ooh, let’s pretend we can get a look at all of Amazon’s leases. We don’t like the message of the accuracy we have, so let’s ask for spurious accuracy. That’ll stop any thinking.

    The Facebook space is for 3X the people they already have here. But we can’t make any general projections about how their census will go unless we know whether they are adding 10,000 or 7,000. Let’s pretend the space for our planned 2020 workforce is meaningless if they haven’t been hired by, say, the end of 2018. The smell of desperation here is a little unnerving.

    Letters of intent? That’s the first thing you give up. It costs nothing. Amazon has 3 million sf in leases for property that isn’t yet available. Now they hope to get someone else to sublease 720,000 sf of that because once it comes on-line they’re still on the hook for a good $30-40 psf per year. That’s a mistake, or a change of strategy. But even Amazon thinks hard before committing to $20 million a year for 5 or 10 or 15 years for space they can’t use. They didn’t set up to casually triple or quadruple that in the next downturn. These are people who can actually plan; even figure out how to buy themselves houses.

  108. 608
    whatsmyname says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 604:

    RE: Justme @ 602 – Thank you for spelling this out, I didn’t have the patience to do it.

    How much patience does it require to lay out that you are talking out your posterior?

  109. 609
    Justpassinthru says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 598
    I work in commercial property management with some big players and although I agree that a signed lease from Facebook or any other major tech is good news for the landlord and area, keep in mind that most of these big players have buy-out/early termination or sublease clauses (or even better) in their newly signed leases. They have amazingly tough lawyers who know how to make sure if they need out of their lease then they absolutely can get out of their lease. I’ve seen some creative options. Company growth is the intention but not what always comes to fruition. Many of these companies never move in to their intended spaces. Tech company leases are even more flexible with more options (for landlord and tenant) since things can change quickly in the tech world. I wouldn’t use this information as a solid positive towards housing until we have Facebook actually moving into the space. Sharing for the greater blog readers since you seem like the type of guy that is already aware of this

  110. 610
    Justme says:

    RE: Justpassinthru @ 607

    (speaking to whatsmyname)
    >>Sharing for the greater blog readers since you seem like the type of guy that is already aware of this

    THIS. Of course whatsmyname is aware that leases are broken all the time, and that many companies never occupy their mega-leases. But he does not want potential buyers do know how shaky the whole oh-look-at-the-leasing-activity thing really is.

  111. 611
    Matt P says:

    RE: Justme @ 603

    One link works great, thanks. Part of the reason for the spike I notice now is the 1st falling on a Friday. There was a similar one June 1st last year, also a Friday. Still no similar spikes this early last year, though.

  112. 612
    Justme says:

    Let’s have a look at the IT job numbers and how they jibe with “leasing activity” for offices:

    From Nov2017 to Oct2018, the Seattle area(*) added 8700 Information Technology jobs(**). Whoop-de-doo. Count’em, 8700 jobs. How much office space does that require? Oh, about 870k ft2 worth at the 100ft2/person typical estimate. Gee golly, I wonder what happened to all that breathlessly reported leased new office space from 2017? It didn’t get occupied? It was just replacement for existing offices? It’s still empty? The pie-in-the-sky projections of the future did not become reality?

    In summary, another REIC propaganda favorite talking point bites the dust. Hard. Dear potential homebuyer, do not believe anything the bubble mongers tell you. Just keep striking.

    (*) Seattle area is defined by BLS as all of of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. That means ALL the big tech companies are included in the IT employee counts.

    (**) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/blssummary_seattle.pdf
    as of 2019-02-02.

  113. 613
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 609

    I agree, Friday being the 1st of the month does have an effect. The opposite happened in Dec 2018 when more listings expired/cancelled right before the weekend on Fri Nov 30. These listings are now coming back on the market . Even before the Superbowl :) And: The spike was particularly pronounced for KC/SFH, the most expensive product. Also, it may mean that there is still an outsized listing count bump coming next week, after the Superbowl. We shall see.

  114. 614
    Brian says:

    Wow, I didn’t realize listings spiked so much on Friday. I looked on Thursday and they were still like 2700. For the past few weeks listings had been pretty flat and I was wondering if the downturn was going to continue this year or not. The recent listing spike doesn’t bode well for spring sellers. Some sellers are jumping the gun early.

  115. 615
    IssaquahResident says:

    Thanks, Justme, for the posts. Keep them coming.

  116. 616
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 610:

    Let’s have a look at the IT job numbers and how they jibe with “leasing activity” for offices:

    From Nov2017 to Oct2018, the Seattle area(*) added 8700 Information Technology jobs(**). Whoop-de-doo. Count’em, 8700 jobs. How much office space does that require? Oh, about 870k ft2 worth at the 100ft2/person typical estimate. Gee golly, I wonder what happened to all that breathlessly reported leased new office space from 2017? It didn’t get occupied? It was just replacement for existing offices? It’s still empty? The pie-in-the-sky projections of the future did not become reality?

    In summary, another REIC propaganda favorite talking point bites the dust. Hard. Dear potential homebuyer, do not believe anything the bubble mongers tell you. Just keep striking.

    (*) Seattle area is defined by BLS as all of of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. That means ALL the big tech companies are included in the IT employee counts.

    (**) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/blssummary_seattle.pdf
    as of 2019-02-02.

    Ironically even as automation has increased, the number of technology workers in the US has not kept pace. The jobs have concentrated more in large cities with smaller cities having their jobs offshored. If you look at the numbers in the chart below, all of the increases since the 90s have been from imported workers on H-1B visas. All native born citizens have been replaced at a 1 to 1 rate even while the population has continued to grow. Americans are still getting plenty of STEM degrees and there are plenty of smart ones out there, but they aren’t being hired.

    https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/cb16-139_itworkers.html

  117. 617

    RE: S-Crow @ 574
    Thanks for the Eye Opening Data

    I’m wide awake now with no coffee! LOL

    You see the raw numbers and in bulks too…much better analysis than my neighborhood is better/worse than your’s using single SFH data I see throughout the blogs here….that’s why I gather data constantly rather than rely on a single snapshot, the trends become clearer the more data ya got…

    Snohomish Co down about 20% YOY in prices…WOWZA…the 1+% home mortgage interest rate decline in January 2019 a savior or moot point?

  118. 618

    RE: Matt P @ 613
    Yes Matt

    When did the Seattle area hate American Engineers this bad, then they make up false STEM shortages fairy tales that don’t apply or like you said, ignored. They hate American engineers? The H-1B can help MSFT increase useless quality “patches” and develop more virus S/W for poor S/W quality now too? What’s really in those “patches” anyway? Malware? All I know is after I load a big 5 part patch my laptop’s 2007 O/S it takes about 3 reboots to get back up to speed? Junk IOWs.

    Its like the WALL, in 2006 both parties embraced it [$56B] under Bush, but never finished it either [left huge WALL gaps in CA]….if Trump wants it they hate it? Identity politics with no data analysis brain.

  119. 619
    MD says:

    Check out this house. Last sold 2 years ago for $635K, now listed at $889K, an increase of 40%. No visible updates, described as a “perfect fixer.”

  120. 620
    whatsnyname says:

    By Justpassinthru @ 607:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 598
    I work in commercial property management with some big players and although I agree that a signed lease from Facebook or any other major tech is good news for the landlord and area, keep in mind that most of these big players have buy-out/early termination or sublease clauses (or even better) in their newly signed leases. They have amazingly tough lawyers who know how to make sure if they need out of their lease then they absolutely can get out of their lease. I’ve seen some creative options. Company growth is the intention but not what always comes to fruition. Many of these companies never move in to their intended spaces. Tech company leases are even more flexible with more options (for landlord and tenant) since things can change quickly in the tech world. I wouldn’t use this information as a solid positive towards housing until we have Facebook actually moving into the space. Sharing for the greater blog readers since you seem like the type of guy that is already aware of this

    From my phone, and to be brief,. Buyouts are expensive . Subleases mean someone’s using the space, and early termination that I’ve seen requires an least five years on the hook. Big companies aren’t perfect predictors, but they put a lot of resources into their space needs and they know big developers have good attorneys too ,. I think you will agree you haven’t seen much actual lease abandonment there.

  121. 621
    whatsnyname says:

    By Justme @ 608:

    RE: Justpassinthru @ 607

    (speaking to whatsmyname)
    >>Sharing for the greater blog readers since you seem like the type of guy that is already aware of this

    THIS. Of course whatsmyname is aware that leases are broken all the time, and that many companies never occupy their mega-leases. But he does not want potential buyers do know how shaky the whole oh-look-at-the-leasing-activity thing really is.

    On a percentage basis, very few companies break their leases, especially big ones. You are grasping at a straw you just don’t understand,

  122. 622
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 602 – Obama’s peak total employment was 90M. Trump’s current employment is 150M – in 2 years.

    Are you catching on?

  123. 623
    Justme says:

    RE: Blake @ 501
    RE: David @ 617

    David says:
    >>Obama’s peak total employment was 90M. Trump’s current employment is 150M – in 2 years.

    As Blake so eloquently put it, David is our resident idiot. His grasp of economic and political fact is as feeble as his grasp of the housing market and what constitutes sustainable housing prices.

    A look at non-farm payrolls ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS ) will show you that Bush2 ended at 129M jobs, under Obama jobs grew to 146M, and since then it has grown to 150M under Trump in 2 years. So not 60M more jobs under Trump, but 4M. Whop-dee-do.

  124. 624

    RE: Justme @ 618
    A Big Problem With Comparing Administrations

    Obama cheated and borrowed MASS QE money for the banksters….Trump didn’t. Apples and oranges serious analysts. IMO if Trump’s the same on job numbers, he’s much better on “fiscal minded” business than that “spendthrift” attorney Obama.

  125. 625

    Cortez Hates Open Border Party (OBP) MSFT, Boeing and AMZ Top 0.1% Incomes

    And this Dem wants to soak the top tier Seattle Home owners with MASSIVE TAX INCREASES. Americans support the “tax the rich Democrats (OBP)” by a 70%+ poll number….be careful what you wished for…LOL

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/04/democrats-taxes-economy-policy-2020-1144874

    Defying Trump’s WALL $CASH$ for higher taxes by the OBP [and reinstating $500K+ jumbo house loans with $25K/yr “decent/regular health care insurance” silver health care plan tax deductions] is akin to the clown with the squirt bottle in your face….LOL…enjoy your “crow” dinner rich elite OBP. Cortez has a “soak the rich” baseball bat heading for your head, at a theater near you.

  126. 626
    Justme says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 619

    QE of about 3.5T created the everything-bubble in housing, bonds, stocks and commercial real estate. It did little to create jobs until all corporation were stuffed to the gills with more debt and more stock buybacks.

    Likewise, the Trump’s massive corporate tax cut was a huge giveaway to corporations, reducing the tax rate from 37% to 21%.

    From wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017 )

    The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation of the U.S. Congress published its macroeconomic analysis of the final version of the Act, on December 22, 2017: The Act would increase the total budget deficits (debt) by about $1 trillion over ten years including macro-economic feedback effects.

    Both QT and TTC (Trump Tax cut) were and are massive giveaways to the top 0.01% and a huge burden on homebuyers and working people.

  127. 627
    Matt P says:

    Everyone enjoying their snow day? Wonder what this cold week will do to sales and listings.

  128. 628

    RE: Matt P @ 627

    Counting both today and yesterday and all residential property types for King County from 1 bedroom condos to mega houses…19 of the Active listings are new listings as of now.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand counted by Ardell in Real Time and not Published, Verified or Compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  129. 629
    N says:

    Very unlikely to happen, but consider a year ago inventory was ~1,200. Today it’s around ~3,000. Assuming the same % increase as last year we’d be somewhere in the ballpark of 10,000-12,000 later in the year.

    Highly unlikely but passing last year’s high and getting to 6,000 -8,000 might happen. Or maybe, considering it was due to a lack of buyers and not necessarily more new listings, we won’t see anything more than last year, or even less.

  130. 630
    S-Crow says:

    King County Recording offices have shut down. All closings will be moved to tomorrow.

    S-Crow

  131. 631
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 627

    You’ll have an idea by Friday night. Hardly anything gets listed on Sunday or Monday anyway.

  132. 632
    Matt P says:

    By Justme @ 631:

    RE: Matt P @ 627

    You’ll have an idea by Friday night. Hardly anything gets listed on Sunday or Monday,

    I was just looking for general speculation to get us away from the politics again.

  133. 633
    David says:

    By Justme @ 623:

    RE: Blake @ 501
    RE: David @ 617

    David says:
    >>Obama’s peak total employment was 90M. Trump’s current employment is 150M – in 2 years.

    As Blake so eloquently put it, David is our resident idiot. His grasp of economic and political fact is as feeble as his grasp of the housing market and what constitutes sustainable housing prices.

    A look at non-farm payrolls ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS ) will show you that Bush2 ended at 129M jobs, under Obama jobs grew to 146M, and since then it has grown to 150M under Trump in 2 years. So not 60M more jobs under Trump, but 4M. Whop-dee-do.

    The ‘Smartest Guy N Da Room’ has reading comprehension that doesn’t quite understand the difference between workforce participation and jobs created.

    Again, Obama’s peak (read ‘high’) was 90M. Trump’s is 150M. Obama said the NEW NORMAL is 1% growth and his policy minions greed. (Obama – a real idiot – had his minions of deprivation sniffing his ar$e from behind as they followed.) Obama is one of the dumbest presidents the USA has EVER had.

    Obama’s Depression has ruined a lot of lives- ESPECIALLY young lives.

    If you are an Obama-Supporter, your IQ is suspect. Or certainly your ability to think independently.

  134. 634
    Justme says:

    I think the dog has officially lost his mind. But he was never truth’s best friend, anyway.

  135. 635
    Justme says:

    @S-Crow, any thoughts on the prevalence and parameters of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARM) the last several years in King County and Snohomish County and any other local area you may know about? There is an article out today that has some fairly shocking numbers.

    QUOTE: The size of the average fixed-rate mortgage last week nationally was $280,900. The size of the average adjustable-rate mortgage was $688,400 – two and a half times as big.

    Reference: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-average-adjustable-rate-mortgage-is-nearly-700000-heres-what-that-tells-us-2019-02-04

    Also, I checked on quickenloans today, and the 5/1 ARM is 3.875% (5.044% APR). The detailed parameters of the loans are listed as

    Lifetime Rate Cap 5% (that is in addition to the starter interest rate, not a total cap)
    Yearly Adjustment Cap 2%
    First Adjustment Rate Cap 2%
    ARM Index 2.962%
    ARM Margin 2.25%

    I was wondering who is securitizing these loans into MBS. One example I found is that FHA has ARM loans with 3.5% down. This sounds scary to me.

  136. 636
    Brady says:

    The January stats in King County is going to be a doozy….

  137. 637
    N says:

    @Justme 635 – It should be pointed out the article also mentions adj rate loans have always had a higher balance and the lender reqs now typically require a borrower to qualify for the amount the payment could reset to, not just the teaser rate.

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all if many people around here, took a adj rate, figuring the property value would go up. And if this is happening at the higher end, these folks generally can handle changes to their payment.

  138. 638
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Justme @ 635 – The article mentions that the current data of loan amounts of ARM’s are substantially higher than the loan amounts of those obtaining fixed rates. Of the ARM’s that I see, I concur. ARM’s are making a comeback in that as the prices have skyrocketed locally it may be a way for someone to get into a home that they may otherwise hesitate about if they had a fixed rate with higher initial payments. With the introductory period of 5 or 7 years, the borrower may expect that income would rise enough to offset the possibility of ARM adjustments going up in the future. I see ARM’s also in 2nd home purchases and those a very jumbo.

    Fixed rate loans are far more prevalent than ARM’s today but that could change if fixed interest rates starts to rise or housing prices outpace incomes by a large margin or a combination of the two.

    Fixed rate loans I see marketed today are around 4.125 % at a half point. As you say, ARM’s are around 3.875% for the introductory period. Not too much of a spread.

    To your point about securitization and FHA, I don’t know. FHA IS the defacto subprime guarantor of low down mortgages. FHA coupled with the Washington State Housing Finance Commission Homebuyer program (a down payment assistance program with no payments and 0 % interest charge –due when you refinance or sell) joins the VA as the 100% nothing down programs.

    While the VA program certainly is geared towards assisting Vet’s with nothing down and streamline refinancing, it’s debatable whether it is financially the best choice. Many cavalierly overlook the massive funding fees that come with the purchase money loans and when refinancing a VA loan they commonly roll the fees into the loan amount. So, in a refinance, borrowers are increasing their debt while most SHOULD be looking to pay it down. But our cultural appetite for consumption and moving all our consumer debt onto our homes is convenient when housing prices move up enough to do that.

  139. 639
    Market Psychologist says:

    Bagholder?

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/75-E-Lynn-St-Apt-204-Seattle,-WA,-98102_rb/

    1/22/2019 Listed for sale $650,000 
    6/1/2017 Sold $615,000

  140. 640
    uwp says:

    I’ve actually been wondering about that 300 listing jump on the 1st, and waiting for Justme to post about it as a part of the Sellers Rushing to the Exits™. I think it could be a problem with the feed. The sidebar tracker has had lots of weird stuff in the past 6 weeks:

    There was the period at the beginning of the year where it just stopped changing for a week (basically 12/30/18-1/05/19).

    Then on January 7th, a new column showed up that was about ~200 listings higher than the other. I don’t think The Tim has said what the difference between the two columns is, but for some reason Justme prefers to use the new higher number rather than continue with the numbers he had previously charted.

    Those two columns trended closer and closer together until they were basically giving the same number from 1/23 on.

    Then on 1/28, a Thursday, the left column dropped over 200 listings in one hour, while the other column did not (why wasn’t Justme letting us know about that DRAMATIC INVENTORY DROP? ).

    So we get to February 1st, when the right column jumps 300 listings in one hour at 9am on a Friday. The left column continues like a normal Friday where inventory builds through the day. Both columns peak at 9pm Friday and drop 130-140 listings between then and today.

    Maybe it is accurate. But there has been some other blips and bloops along the way. We get the NWMLS stats monthly, so it’s not that important in the grand scheme of things. And I wouldn’t want to take away Justme’s chart fun.

  141. 641
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 639

    I’m not speaking for The Tim, but I can say what I know.

    The estately data (and the website, too) was erratic around year end, and did not update properly during 2018 week 52-53 and 2019 week 1, and apparently also later, such as around Jan 28. Tim has provided alternative/additional data which is “powered by redfin” as it now says on the front page sidebar. The redfin data has been much more reliable, and available since 2019-01-07. Hence I use the redfin data for my graphical weekend updates after that date.

    The big jump on Friday Feb 1 I had verified manually by checking new listings for King County SFH on the redfin website. The jump matched closely with observed new listings on the web interface. It is likely the high new listing volume had something to do with the ~60 day elapsed time since the mass delisting events on Fri Nov 30. If I recall correctly, 60 days is the minimum off-market time to get a fresh NWMLS listing for the same house. For some reason (maybe some maintenance issue overnight), many new listings got bunched together at 9am. It is also conceivable but perhaps not likely that agents had timed the NWMLS release to 9am. I don’t know if that is possible.

    But in any case, my manual check in the evening confirmed the new listings were real, based on sorting “time on redfin” and viewing manually. Anyone can do their own check by using redfinDOTcom and search King County with appropriate filter settings for SFH or Condo. Sort using “time on redfin” and see for yourself the new ones listed first.

    In summary, I have found no reason to distrust the new redfin column in the data files. The jump on Feb 1 was real, but the reason for the bunching of a large portion of the jump into 1 hour is unknown, although I do not think there was anything sinister about it.

    References:
    RE: Justme @ 584
    RE: Justme @ 590
    RE: Justme @ 604

  142. 642
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 640:

    It is likely the high new listing volume had something to do with the ~60 day elapsed time since the mass delisting events on Fri Nov 30. If I recall correctly, 60 days is the minimum off-market time to get a fresh NWMLS listing for the same house.

    Mass delisting event on Nov 30th? Listings went from 3,680 at the end of 11/29 to 3,600 by the end of 12/1. Seems relatively minor, especially in the end-of-year period when listings typically drop.

    I’m not suggesting anything nefarious. Just the sort of technical glitches that have happened in the past.

    In summary, I have found no reason to distrust the new redfin column in the data files.

    When you post your year-over-year graphs, I hope you make clear that you are comparing inventory stats from two different sources. I wouldn’t want any distractions, mis-directions, or mis-characterizations of the graphs themselves, and what they say.

  143. 643
    N says:

    Our neighbors to the north:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/big-decline-in-vancouver-b-c-home-prices-could-be-just-tip-of-iceberg/

    Vancouver appears to be following a broader trajectory among global cities, including London, Hong Kong and Sydney, that saw massive gains as buyers binged on easy capital during a decade of cheap debt. Now some of that liquidity is drying up. Chinese outbound investment has slumped since a 2016 crackdown on capital outflows, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet.

    “Vancouver real estate was one of the largest benefactors,” of that stimulus, says Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver realtor and author of a local real estate blog. “It may be simple to summarize the slowdown as a few local tax policies and tightening of lending standards, but in reality it’s much more complicated,” says Saretsky, who’s now trying to explain the darkening macro picture in a market where many locals have long considered home price appreciation unstoppable.

    He rattles off troubling indicators, such as the 19.5 months of unsold inventory languishing on the market. The benchmark composite price is a “lagging index” and doesn’t capture the full picture, since detached houses have been falling for nearly two years and are down 12.8 percent from their peak, says Saretsky.

    The top end of the market driven largely by foreign buyers, especially Chinese, has been the hardest hit. Prices in posh West Vancouver have plunged 14 percent in a year.

  144. 644
    formerSeattleite says:

    By NW @ 556:

    The guts. Sick to my stomach.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2603-NE-82nd-St-98115/home/315201

    Jan 31, 2019 Listed: $1,050,000
    Jan 6, 2015 Sold: $520,000

    Redfin Estimate: $1,095,393

    Unbelievable… I haven’t been on this forum in about 3-4 months and then today I decide to check it out and I get to your post. This, to me, seems absolutely asinine.. I’ve been out of Seattle for almost 5 years now but to imagine that someone would pay a million dollars for that is mind boggling. Just.. unbelievable.

  145. 645
    tc says:

    Question for the numbers guru’s here: Regarding sold homes for the past 3-6 months, what is the data say with regards to: (a) number of homes sold close to original list vs having to lower price, and (b) how close to list price (final whether it be original, if not lowered, or final lowered price)?

    If this is a buyers strike as some have indicated, then it should mean that it doesn’t matter what sellers lower their price to, buyers will continue to hold out for even lower. If on the other hand is simply a price correction, then the final sale price should be within historical ballpark to final list price. I am not sure what the historical marker is given the experience of last few years, but assuming a more balanced market.

    Does anyone know?

  146. 646
    Justme says:

    RE: N @ 643

    Whoa, Vancouver BC has 19.5 months of unsold inventory. In these modern times of web listings and electronic offers, 4-6 weeks is a balanced market.

  147. 647
    Justme says:

    Here is what is happening with average days-on-market for Seattle, Portland and San Jose. Quite dramatic. Seattle increased from 15 last year about same time to 47 now.

    https://www.housingwire.com/ext/resources/images/editorial/Charts/Days-on-Market-West-Coast_Redfin_2019-01.png

  148. 648
    Matt P says:

    I was looking through the redfin data and Sold Above List stands out for Seattle. It’s only through Dec, but it’s the lowest in Seattle since 2012. Less than 19% sold above list.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center

  149. 649
    ess says:

    PBS last night (Feb 5th) had a segment on a surging real estate market in some parts of the country as the heading of the report indicated:

    “Plus, why open houses are suddenly jam-packed.”

    One can either read the transcript or view the program at 19:35

    http://nbr.com/category/nbr-shows/

    Apparently lower prices and interest rates are starting to get some markets moving again.
    Good timing going into the “spring buying season”.

    Will Seattle and area houses become “jam- packed” this spring? We shall see!! While Seattle housing isn’t “jam packed” as of yet, houses continue to sell, and lower end, smaller houses are in short supply, at least in South Snohomish County. But if you don’t think now is the time to buy – then continue to rent. Landlords love renters who are discouraged buyers – they have the resources and the motivation to be great tenants.

  150. 650
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 649

    Oh, yeah, I saw that realtomercial last night. I halfway wrote a comment about it, too. That particular 950k open house from Copley, Texas (Dallas suburb) looked quite staged in more ways than one, replete with renting family of 5 touring the mansion, a sterotypical China investor couple, an Indian-sounding dude, and breathless reports of high foot traffic.

    Prospective buyer Celene Vittorio may become the new “Suzanne researched this” running joke of this bubble bust: Here is what she said, and I quote: “You certainly don’t want to buy at the top of the market”. Vittorio was referring to the top of the MORTGAGE RATE market, but was it a Freudian slip? Vittorio had a look on her face that she had just said something that didn’t sound quite as intended in retrospect.

    Agent Laura Barnett: “We actually did get a surge in buyers coming in. I worked with two this weekend, one of which is under contract, the other one is about to be”.

    Tells you right there how Laura thinks of buyers. It is *buyers* that are “under contract”, not properties, in her mindset. Go get those buyers under contract, Laura!

    So as one can see, realtors are trying to push the meme that now is the time to buy, because mortgage rates are low. But, not true. Rates have risen again and are at around 4.78% APR for 30-year fixed as of yesterday.

    The NBR video starts at time 19:36, segment “State of Housing”
    http://nbr.com/2019/02/05/nightly-business-report-february-5-2019/

  151. 651
    ess says:

    /www.marketwatch.com/story/how-home-owners-win-and-lose-under-the-new-tax-law-2018-06-11

    An interesting article about the pluses and minuses of home ownership as per the new tax laws.

  152. 652

    RE: uwp @ 572
    Sounds Like MSNBC and CNN Reporting of the Infamous Mueller Witch Hunt

    If they keep pounding it down our throats, eventually we detect Russian Collusion? LOL…how about “nothing burger”…ohhh…the infamous “echo chamber Fake Collusion News” CNN/MSNBC OBP Mueller Witch Hunt Report is due in about a month…since its final [no more Populist indictments] and no more unrelated “normal” corruption/errors Populist Indictments in campaign finance [committed by both parties too, not just Populists BTW].

    The renters can eat cake….the rich elite owners are constantly repeating “nothing burger” analysis using village idiot evidence. The buyers will get no WALL…LOL

  153. 653
  154. 654
    ess says:

    Ess @ 651

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-home-owners-win-and-lose-under-the-new-tax-law-2018-06-11?mod=hp_

    I think the above is a better link to the story referenced in 651

    As per the article – as question. One wonders how the tax changes will affect the real estate market at the high and the low ends.

    At the low end of housing – if the focus is primarily on the new federal income tax laws – what percentage of buyers would be persuaded from purchasing a house because the tax advantages of owning a house are not there with the new tax code. This especially applies to areas such as Puget Sound, where it is often cheaper to rent than to buy. Of course, there are many other reasons to buy or not buy a house other than the federal income tax code, but one wonders what percentage of the house buying public will focus on that issue in particular. And if that is the case – will rents stabilize or even increase in this area, especially in the lower end single family housing rental market, as a result of that federal income tax policy?

    And from the high end – with the limits that one can itemize, does that affect those who are buying? Probably not as much – if one can afford to buy an expensive house, one can usually afford to pay the taxes without the entire deduction. On the other hand, when the government passed increased taxes on luxury yacht at a certain price, the sale of more expensive yachts plummeted as buyers bought cheaper yachts.

    Of course this is a much bigger issue in states that have both a state income tax and high property taxes (such as back east or in California).

    But we know tax issues are driving behavior, as there was a news item the other day that residents in NY and NJ are migrating to lower tax states such as Florida, and NY state has budgetary shortfalls as a result of loss of higher income individuals that have departed. Furthermore, another high tax state, Connecticut has been in steep economic and population decline for years, and the new tax laws may inflame that issue.

  155. 655
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 612:

    Let’s have a look at the IT job numbers and how they jibe with “leasing activity” for offices:

    From Nov2017 to Oct2018, the Seattle area(*) added 8700 Information Technology jobs(**). Whoop-de-doo. Count’em, 8700 jobs. How much office space does that require? Oh, about 870k ft2 worth at the 100ft2/person typical estimate. Gee golly, I wonder what happened to all that breathlessly reported leased new office space from 2017? It didn’t get occupied? It was just replacement for existing offices? It’s still empty? The pie-in-the-sky projections of the future did not become reality?

    In summary, another REIC propaganda favorite talking point bites the dust. Hard. Dear potential homebuyer, do not believe anything the bubble mongers tell you. Just keep striking.

    (*) Seattle area is defined by BLS as all of of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. That means ALL the big tech companies are included in the IT employee counts.

    (**) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/blssummary_seattle.pdf
    as of 2019-02-02.

    I clicked your link. I didn’t see a breakout for information technology.

    What I did see was a Dec. to Dec. nonfarm employment change of 67,000+. Thanks for the source.

    I wonder how many houses were built in that same period?

  156. 656
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 650

    Bu wait, there is more. The woman presented as prospective homebuyer Celena Vittorio appears to be also known as Celena Rae, a singer and American Idol contestant in 2004. She has a website where she touts her availability for, among other things, speaking engagements. There is probabaly even more to this story that we do not know yet.

    I semi-jokingly called the NBR segment a “realtomercial”, but that may not have been too far from the mark. The whole story is starting to smell like an instance of outright shilling.

  157. 657
    richard says:

    This coming Saturday is forecasted to be a snow day. Another Godsend to reduce open-house traffic.

    In near and middle term, there are two clouds hanging over the stock market.

    1. By March 1st, an US-China temporary trade deal is widely expected to be reached. A potential signal for big market selloff (buy the rumor, sell the fact).

    2. The next deadline for raising the debt ceiling is expected in mid-summer 2019. A new round of drama between congress and president will pose a 3-month period of market uncertainty.

    How the stock market play out remain to be a question. After April tax season, how the new tax law will impact house owners’ wealth psychology is interesting, will they consume less to further drag down the economy?

    “The media-portrayed home buyers are a bunch of nerds who are punching home price number and mortgage rate in their spreadsheets to calculate the monthly payment. If the number is greater than their budget, buy. otherwise, wait. “

  158. 658
    Notme says:

    There is this and that
    you should buy my moss castle
    or rent my moss pit

    -a petite-bourgeouis bubble haiku

  159. 659
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 612:

    Let’s have a look at the IT job numbers and how they jibe with “leasing activity” for offices:

    …… How much office space does that require? Oh, about 870k ft2 worth at the 100ft2/person typical estimate.

    That may be the typical estimate pulled from the behind located in your 36 sf cubicle; but the industry standard estimate is closer to 150 sf for one person. You have to include real offices, reception, conference rooms, storage, mechanical, kitchen and staff areas, hallways, and yes, even where you work, restrooms.

    Gee golly, I wonder what happened to all that breathlessly reported leased new office space from 2017? It didn’t get occupied? It was just replacement for existing offices? It’s still empty? The pie-in-the-sky projections of the future did not become reality?

    Typically, if you lease space that won’t be complete until 2019 or 2020, you were not expecting to fill that space until that time. Projections of the future my turn out wrong, but they are not wrong because they didn’t come true in the past. Are you lost in time?

  160. 660
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 659
    Justme, I apologize. That post was lacking in civility.

  161. 661
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 654

    The SALT-cap (the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) limitation on deducting mortgage interest and State And Local Taxes from income before calculating federal income) is hitting high-cost housing areas (like Seattle) hard. Especially newly mortgaged homeowners are feeling the pain this tax season.

    I don’t believe for a second that SALT-cap will not affect Seattle housing prices. Those suckers that bought at the peak in 2018 are right now discovering how SALT-cap will affect them. Once the news spreads, and it already is, more and more people will get yet another reason not to buy. There is nothing like some concrete numbers to put a damper on whatever enthusiasm is still left.

    http://housingbubble.blog/?p=950

    “‘SALT was an economic civil war,’ Mr. Cuomo said. ‘It literally restructured the economy to help red states at the cost of blue states. That’s exactly what it did. It was a diabolical, political maneuver.’”

  162. 662

    RE: whatsmyname @ 655
    Yes

    Non-farm workers includes “burger flippers”, not just IT.

  163. 663

    RE: Justme @ 661
    Yes I’m Debt Free and a Single Tax Payer Household

    I mailed for my HUGE $2000 REFUND under Trump to the IRS Tues….I was dancing….in the past, I ate cake so Obama’s Rich Elite OBP could have HUGE tax deductions on their mortgage principles over $500K and deduct their $25K/Yr Silver [ya know, real insurance like Blue Cross] Health Plans that most families [bottom 95% of household income] can’t afford without employer help. Or they’re stuck with Obama’s “nothing burger” health plan….Medicaid [and even Medicare for office visits].

    Even the electric golf cart tax deduction [mostly rich elite] is a similar joke….do you like coffee with your cake?

    Poor $250K/Yr household babies? Enjoy your cake now…

  164. 664

    RE: Justme @ 661
    Obama Was an Angel

    He fed the Real Estate system all the “debt” welfare to the banksters without a real manufacturing economy…to maybe improve the economy “short-term”…I want him back. Not.

  165. 665
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 662
    Yes.
    Point 1 was that there was no breakout for the jobs we’re talking about.
    Point 2 was that it is significant to learn that there are 67,000 more jobs in the metro than 1 year ago. Burger flippers are included; doctors and lawyers too.

    Looks like NWMLS took down their press release site.

  166. 666
    Jake says:

    A Seattle Bubble haiku:

    Every house in Seattle is really worth less than 1$
    If you pay more than $1 you are stupid and bad things should happen to you
    I am so smart, s-m-r-t

  167. 667
    Matt P says:

    By whatsmyname @ 665:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 662
    Looks like NWMLS took down their press release site.

    Numbers so bad they all decided to quit?

  168. 668
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 612

    Some of the usual suspects have tried to sow doubt about the not-so-rosy 3-county labor numbers I posted. One of the techniques used is to engage in self-serving stupidity. Case in point, one poster was seemingly unable to determine that the job classification “Information” included “Information Technology”.

  169. 669
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 668:

    RE: Justme @ 612

    Some of the usual suspects have tried to sow doubt about the not-so-rosy 3-county labor numbers I posted. One of the techniques used is to engage in self-serving stupidity. Case in point, one poster was seemingly unable to determine that the job classification “Information” included “Information Technology”.

    The number you posted misrepresented the information presented.

    Amazon, (the focus of your original comment), is primarily a retailer, and secondarily a business services company. Are you prepared to state to the community that you think BLS is classifying them as “information”? Go ahead. We’re waiting.

  170. 670
    Justme says:

    See what I mean? Amazon retail (warehouse) workers are mostly not in a financial position to purchase property at bubble price levels. Warehouse workers also do not occupy office space in new highrises in Downtown Seattle or Bellevue (which was the origin of my post).

    Nevertheless, bubble mongers demand that you count warehouse workers as being demand for purchasing homes (SFH or Condo) and demand for high-end office space.

    It is pure nonsense and propaganda.

  171. 671
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 670 – Hmm, I wasn’t thinking about the warehouse people. It seems like you weren’t thinking about all the managers, support staff, administrators, sales and finance folks, and other people that do take up space in an office building.

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