NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back

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January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The King County median price of single-family homes fell year-over-year for the first time since March of 2012. Inventory is way up from a year ago, but pending sales started increasing year-over-year, so buyers may be coming back.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Homebuyers resuming search amid improving inventory, attractive terms
Home buyers around Washington state are making their way back to the market, hoping to take advantage of improving inventory, attractive interest rates, and more approachable sellers, according to officials with Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said buyers “came out of the woodwork” after the holidays, eager to take advantage of better housing conditions. “Areas close to the job centers are seeing improved affordability from spring 2018,” he said, attributing it to lower interest rates, strong job growth, and adjusted pricing.

I’m not a professional used-house salesman like Lennox, but to me it seems like not a great idea to compare your clients to insects crawling out of the walls in a dilapidated home. But hey, you do you Lennox.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

January 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 2,820 -0.6% +126.9%
Closed Sales 1,224 -28.2% -2.8%
SAAS (?) 1.17 +24.9% +16.1%
Pending Sales 1,904 +38.8% +9.0%
Months of Supply 2.30 +38.3% +133.4%
Median Price* $610,000 -4.5% -2.9%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell half a percent from December to January, but was up 127 percent from last year. The last time there were over 2,750 homes on the market at the end of January was in 2014.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up 13 percent from a year ago, and more than doubled from December to January.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell 28 percent between December and January. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 40 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down just three percent.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales shot up 39 percent from December to January, and were up nine percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

Still a huge year-over-year increase in listings, but the growth did fall off a bit from December to January.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year home price changes dropped below zero for the first time in nearly seven years. I doubt we’ll see this continue to fall, but… maybe?

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

January 2019: $610,000
January 2018: $628,388
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: Seattle-area home prices drop to lowest point in two years — down $116,000 since last spring

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,092 comments:

  1. 751
    Realistic says:

    @Justme – something odd is happening with Redfin reporting. This week the for-sale count of SFH in KC climbed to 3168 by Thurs afternoon but just a few hours later when I checked again the count dropped to 2985. It is hard to understand how over 180 listings could disappear in the matter of a few hours, especially on Thursday. I’m not sure if Redfin is a reliable source for the weekend updates anymore.

  2. 752
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Marc @ 747

    I am not sure what your point is. Because I am not selling all the houses and don’t have all the data on all households in all parts of King County, then therefore what I do know of my buyers is irrelevant?

    People in a business know the buyers in their niche. They may have some knowledge about other consumers in other niches, but that is not really their main concern.

    I could probably hazard a guess on who is buying track houses in Covington or who is buying townhouses in Everett, but that is simply an educated guess and not worth very much.

    On the other hand, I know the profile of the buyer of a new home in 705/710, whether that is a single family home on a SF5000 lot or a townhome on a subdivided LR zone lot. I know what kind of jobs they have, what kind of cars they drive, what kind of schools their kids go to (and what kind of schools they wish they went to), etc. etc.

    If you have aggregated data on who is buying and who is selling throughout King County, put it out there. I would love to see it.

  3. 753
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Realistic @ 750

    Deals tend to initiate earlier in the week. There are issues that need to be handled and ironed out in the middle of the week before they can be finalized. Agents who are busy tend to process the paperwork (or hand it to someone to be processed) later in the week. Deals are happening and the market is moving. You are just getting some lumpiness and bunching in the data.

    Or is this a kind of reverse confirmation bias in your reading of the data where you feel the data is heading in the wrong direction?

  4. 754

    Confused With the Seattle RE Market Direction for 2019?

    Sounds like I’m preaching to the choir after reading the two blogs above me….LOL

  5. 755
    uwp says:

    By Realistic @ 750:

    @Justme – something odd is happening with Redfin reporting. This week the for-sale count of SFH in KC climbed to 3168 by Thurs afternoon but just a few hours later when I checked again the count dropped to 2985. It is hard to understand how over 180 listings could disappear in the matter of a few hours, especially on Thursday. I’m not sure if Redfin is a reliable source for the weekend updates anymore.

    It also jumped up by over 175 in one hour on 3/6. Why is it easy to believe the jumps, but hard to understand the drops?

    It’s mostly just noise.

    (Hey, that’s a great new nickname for a poster: JustNoise)

  6. 756

    Another Bitter Cold Freezing March Day

    30 degrees this morning with layer of fresh “frozen” ice over everything…

    Don’t put the sleds away yet…

  7. 757
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 754

    “Hey, that’s a great new nickname for a poster: JustNoise”

    That’s it! Perfection.

  8. 758
    Benjamin says:

    RedFin is not a reliable source Tim. They are manipulating their historical data to show a constant upward trend. Price increases are good for Redfin’s business model so they are incentivized to show constant appreciation.

  9. 759
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 738:

    Great point. If you really believe the for sale housing market is going to dump, then by all means short the market by shorting publicly traded home builders– or at least the weakest of them. There is a means to do this via the equities market. If you got the timing right (and that is key going short) you might have made a statement and made some money too.

    I’m not interested in shorting the market. I doubt you short overpriced markets regularly either. But I do participate in underpriced markets and Seattle RE was one of them. IMO risk/reward ratio is unfavorable in Seattle RE today. Regardless, I wish you the best.

  10. 760
    Justme says:

    RE: Realistic @ 750

    It looks fairly normal to me. Thu is a big pending day as well as big new listing day. Not totally unexpected that the numbers go up and down a bit every hour. Could be just new listers getting their stuff out during the day, while the pendings took their time and reported later in the evening, after, uh, decompressing a bit. Worth keeping an eye on, though.

  11. 761

    RE: Realistic @ 750

    Current Market Snapshot.

    Actively for Sale in King County:

    3,940 of which 935 are Condo and 3005 are Residential

    3,940 of which 55 are 0 bedroom, 298 are 1 bedroom, 725 are 2 bedroom,1015 are 3 bedroom, 1129 are 4 bedroom and 718 are 5 bedrooms or more.

    Fully Pending:

    2,326 of which 496 are condos and 1,830 are Residential

    Pending awaiting result and resolution of inspection

    566 of which 127 are condos and 439 are Residential

    A smattering of other statuses for pendings: 78 are contingent on the buyer selling their current property, 33 are Pending Backup, 26 are Pending Feasibility and 19 are Pending Short Sales needing lienholder approval. An additional 43 are not SS but needing some approval like a co-op board or Bankruptcy Court or Estate Representatives, etc. So you would add these “smatterings” to the total Pendings. I wouldn’t add Pending Inspection until they get to full pending myself. Probably the same with Contingent Status. But Pending SS will likely go from there to Closed without passing through Fulll Pending. Same with Pending Backup. Pending Feasibility is a bit weaker than Pending Inspection and often is more a vacant land purchase with the structure on it torn down. Not always, but often.

    In any case you can use these to compare when The Tim puts his data up. I’ll do a recount using the same paramaters (though may skip the odd smattering statuses) on Wednesday night. Wednesday is late enough for offer and acceptance from weekend offers and a bit ahead of the bulk of the new week.

    There is no 100% accuracy, so you have to have a margin for “error” and duplications. Not unusual for a small % to be listed twice for various marketing reasons. I’ve only done it once in the last dozen or more years for a large condo townhome that I listed as both condo and residential. The mls stats should count those only as 1 vs 2 but there are other “margin for error” issues like a sold property that is still showing as pending. I would allow at least a 2% leeway and up to a 5% leeway and not go crazy about the rise and fall of data until it was in the plus 5% range. YMMV.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  12. 762
    Matt P says:

    Her DeerHawke, do you have anything currently for sale? Curious to look at a representative property of yours. Understand if you don’t want to share on here.

    Super weak jobs report today. Only 20k added in Feb.

  13. 763
    Notme says:

    A problem with the
    unsophisticated buyers,
    they won’t overpay

    -a bubble haiku

  14. 764
    Notme says:

    Be a patriot
    overpay for your housing
    uncle REIC needs you

    -a Wall-Street-also-needs-you bubble haiku

  15. 765
    Notme says:

    Bubble-mongers worldly
    a circle jerk of self-praise
    exquisite, perfect

    -a bubble haiku

  16. 766
    Notme says:

    My buyers smarter
    management material
    yeah, they’d better be!

    -an at-these-prices bubble haiku

  17. 767
    Realistic says:

    By Deerhawke @ 752:

    Or is this a kind of reverse confirmation bias in your reading of the data where you feel the data is heading in the wrong direction?

    Wow, very classy. Taking a swing at someone just for posting a simple observation that was not even directed at you.

    Thanks @Ardell and others for your detailed responses. I can understand this much better now.

  18. 768
    uwp says:

    For those watching at home, the Redfin sidebar inventory tracker has gone from 2898 on Friday 2/8 to 2985 on Friday 3/8… a 3% increase.

    That’s with the Sellers Rushing for the Exit® and Buyers Strike™.

    For comparison, 2018: Friday 2/9- Friday 3/9 SFH inventory increased almost 18%.

  19. 769
  20. 770
    WhatDoIKnow says:

    RE: uwp @ 766 – ok, I’ll bite. Here’s what I see in the sidebar:

    2/9/18 @ 11am: 1277
    3/9/18 @ 11am: 1499

    **These are the numbers in the left-hand column

    That’s a difference of 222.

    2/8/19 @ 11am: 2454
    3/8/19 @ 11am: 2707

    **Using the same numbers in the left-hand column as 2018 above. Please correct me if I shouldn’t be comparing the same left-hand column numbers.

    That’s a difference of 253.

    So yes, percentage-wise, 2018 had a greater increase – 17% vs 10%. But the fact that we had an overall increase of listings this past month (253 vs 222) compared to the same month in 2018 is promising for buyers (especially considering the weather this past month).

  21. 771
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 766

    I guess it shows that the majority sellers are investors(as shown by one source in NWMLS report) who most likely bought their houses in the last three years. They are eager to exit since fear of loss of profit.

    The non-investor home owner who bought last three years(sucker buyer) are holding off selling since they are either dumb or believing current market volatility is just a small blip.

    The home owner who bought before 2016 may be more oblivious to recent market change and since they already have a lot of equity they probably don’t care selling now.

    Clearly the panic hasn’t kicked in in home owner’s minds. I will be interested to see the actions of baby boomers who hope to get their retirement money this spring. Are they going to keep waiting or decide it is the time before it is too late.

    I think the economic condition and stock market may shift much quicker than people realize. A great show to watch !

  22. 772
    uwp says:

    By richard @ 768:

    The non-investor home owner who bought last three years(sucker buyer) are holding off selling since they are either dumb or believing current market volatility is just a small blip.

    The home owner who bought before 2016 may be more oblivious to recent market change and since they already have a lot of equity they probably don’t care selling now.

    Clearly the panic hasn’t kicked in in home owner’s minds.

    I also have a crazy theory:

    The vast majority of home buyers buy their house to live in them. Thy aren’t buying and selling them 2.5 years later because they think the market is going down so they better move into a rental to “short” the housing market.

    We are the tiny minority who are visiting a website devoted to Seattle Real Estate. And even of this subset, only a few are actively making current decisions based on what they think the market will do the next year or two. Most of us just have our house or rental, and will make the next move when the life-stage calls for it.

  23. 773
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 769 – if those home owners lose 20% equity in the next two years. Many of them will sell. It is a simple fact. You don’t understand the reality. When house price is in such high level, you will be forced to make a tough decision.

  24. 774
    Don says:

    RE: richard @ 770
    @richard,

    Forced how?

  25. 775
    richard says:

    RE: Don @ 771 – if you lose equity , let’s say 20%. you will wonder if you should give up. That’s what happened in last crash, right? people don’t even bother short sell just hand over the keys.

  26. 776
    Don says:

    RE: richard @ 772

    To me, that’s a loss of nerve , not being forced.
    A telling condition to rent vs buy is not having enough time [ maybe job advancement prospects, having to move] or not enough conviction and nerve to wait for the tide to come back in.
    There are areas of the country where I admit a 20% loss might be fatal, but puget sound basin, not in my view. Time is the necessary ingredient.
    Sure, some will sell out as the flight response sets in, but not enough to spoil it for long.

  27. 777
    Jay says:

    Pay 6% to a realtor, cost of moving all your stuff, cost of staging, disruption of new schools if kids, new commutes, community, loss of principle, then do it all again after you buy a few years down the road while again trying to time the market with likely higher interest rates Vs. the uncertain possibility of temporarily losing 20%.. lol RE: richard @ 770

  28. 778

    RE: Deerhawke @ 752

    I understand that is your perception given what you sell but agents are required to change the status within 24 hours, so no, bulking is not the norm. Also it doesn’t take me a bunch of time to iron anything out as I’ve done all that before it’s signed by the seller so that no countering is needed usually. Yours take a long time because of builder addenda. A resale transaction would have less ambiguity to iron out.

    So what you are saying is only true for that % of the market and sales that are new construction, and mostly ones that are not 100% complete yet. Resale paperwork is much more timely and posting is required almost immediately upon acceptance with a 24 hour window. I do mine within 10 minutes usually so that agents aren’t showing or writing on a pending property. We are careful not to waste one another’s time.

  29. 779
    richard says:

    RE: Jay @ 774

    before you lol, you can do a simple calculation.
    if someone bought a medium-price home , say 650K. he put 20% down (130K) and loaned 520K. 3 year later, home price drooped by 20% to 520K. he decided to sell the house at a loss (~ 130K+520K*6%commision ~ 161K). hypothetically he bought the same house back at $520K, put %20 down(104K), loaned 416K. let’s assume at same 30 year fixed rate of 4.25%. My mortgage calculator shows the monthly payment will be $500 less, roughly in 27 years he will recoup the immediate loss he occurred in the first selling. But keep in mind, you have $500 extra every month so you can invest and meaning potential investment gain. and in the time of selling the house, 520K purchase price is always better profit than the original 650K.
    The point here is the price point is super critical. your interest cost is proportional to the price.

  30. 780
    richard says:

    RE: Don @ 773 – 20% in seattle housing market is not a small number. BTW, I think sell at 20% loss may not be loss of a nerve. probably it is logical. check my post above.

  31. 781
    Matt P says:

    By richard @ 776:

    RE: Jay @ 774

    before you lol, you can do a simple calculation.
    if someone bought a medium-price home , say 650K. he put 20% down (130K) and loaned 520K. 3 year later, home price drooped by 20% to 520K. he decided to sell the house at a loss (~ 130K+520K*6%commision ~ 161K). hypothetically he bought the same house back at $520K, put %20 down(104K), loaned 416K. let’s assume at same 30 year fixed rate of 4.25%. My mortgage calculator shows the monthly payment will be $500 less, roughly in 27 years he will recoup the immediate loss he occurred in the first selling. But keep in mind, you have $500 extra every month so you can invest or spend. and in the time of selling the house, 520K purchase price is always better profit than the original 650K.
    The point here is the price point is super critical. your interest cost is proportional to the price.

    Where is that new $100k down payment going to come from?

  32. 782
    richard says:

    RE: Matt P @ 778 – when he bought the first time (650K). the housing cost is about 45K a year(mortagage+insurance+tax+water utitliy garbage), to save 33K a year (assume three years later he will sell). His income(assume no kids, a millenal couple ) need to be 45K+33K+2K(gas)+11K(food, per adult)=91K after tax and retirement account contribution. assuming 25-30% tax bracket, so gross income is about 130K. if it is double income , it seems manageable. To save 33K a year may not be that difficult for high tech worker. but as you can see, it is a little towards house-poor life style (no much out eating and traveling).

  33. 783
    Matt P says:

    RE: richard @ 779 – I guarantee that money is going into a 401k first and this hypothetical person can in no way get his hands on 100k cash in 3 years.

  34. 784
    richard says:

    RE: Matt P @ 780 – if the person has no additional saving in his first house purchase. it means he(and his wife) already stretch to their limit. It is always suggested to have an emergency fund I guess 20K for the couples’ 3month expense. BTW, they can take out 401K money as part of the down payment and life style change is also important.

  35. 785
    dariakus says:

    RE: richard @ 781 – I had to walk away (short sale) a house once because we bought at the peak and my job relocated me to another state. Rents crashed so hard there was no way to hold on to the house.

    But if my job had kept me in the area? I would probably have ridden it out, at least for a while. Though looking back now at the value of that home, it still isn’t worth what I paid for it in 2006/2007…

    If you’re in a good house that you plan to just live in for a long term (10+ years), selling even if–heck, especially if–the market is plummeting just because you’re scared is almost always a bad idea.

    But then if people never made bad decisions we’d never have these crazy cycles in the first place so…

  36. 786
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 779 – So your plan is to dump an additional $100,000 in down-payment in order to get $500/mo (which you could otherwise simply budget from the $100,000 without laundering it through the house), and so that you can fool yourself into thinking you have a lower cost basis on any future gain?

  37. 787
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 779 – So your plan is to save and dump an additional $100,000 in down-payment in order to get $500/mo (which you could otherwise simply budget from the $100,000 without laundering it through the house), and so that you can fool yourself into thinking you have a lower cost basis on any future gain?

  38. 788
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 784 – so did you pay any down payment when you bought your house? if yes, according to your logic,you fooled yourself too.

  39. 789
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 785 – Of course I did. I did not pay it in two installments, and then forget that I had paid the first one.

  40. 790
    richard says:

    RE: dariakus @ 782 – let say prople who bought last spring is just like you bought at peak. you just said after 10 years the property still does not recover,right? so imagine how the buyer here feel 10 years from now(assume similar crash). only here the loss will be bigger since it is way more expensive than florida.

  41. 791
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 786 -so according to your logic,you fool yourself thinking you have a lower cost for future gain.

  42. 792
    Marc says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 751

    Yesterday when I read your comment it sounded to me like you were trying to represent the market at large when your target audience is a very narrow subset, i.e., very affluent buyers looking in a small geographic area. After a busy day today I’ve finally had time to come back to the Bubble and after re-reading your comment I see that you probably were not intending it the way I read it.

    My bigger point is what I said previously, nobody is collecting all the details that Richard was asking for and anyone claiming to have that knowledge was full of … , overreaching.

  43. 793
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 788 – Nonsequitor. Please don’t buy any bridges from yourself.

  44. 794
    Marc says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 752
    Yesterday, I was actually wondering the same thing as Realistic. I have followed the inventory tracker on the home page sidebar for a long time and the numbers I saw yesterday seemed weird to me when I looked around 12:45 pm. I’m a broker so I pulled up the MLS and tried to reproduce the number and was not able to. The numbers I pulled up were lower than what the sidebar showed and I tried several different ways, e.g., at 1:07 pm I got 2,922 single family less townhomes and the sidebar was at 3,117.

    I’m bearish so this was a little disappointing and conflicted with my internal narrative. I was thinking of emailing Tim to inquire what settings Redfin is using in the search but I got busy and forgot about it.

  45. 795
    Joe says:

    RE: uwp @ 766

    Who cares about that. What matters is price, and price has been dropping like a rock. Median buyers in December lost 6% of their purchase price in one month. The most recent data shows median prices in Seattle and East Side dropped more since then. This market is a falling knife.

  46. 796
    Justme says:

    RE: Marc @ 791

    Marc, I can make a guess on the redfin search parameters.

    2019-03-08@23:42-Fri;
    https://www.redfin.com/county/118/WA/King-County/filter/property-type=house is 3070
    https://www.redfin.com/county/118/WA/King-County/filter/property-type=condo is 789
    https://www.redfin.com/county/118/WA/King-County/filter/property-type=townhouse is 536

    The most recent value on file from SeattleBubble

    03.08.2019 23:00 2756 3050
    <—————————estately–redfin<—————

    I'd say my web-redfin 3070 versus sb-redfin-file 3050 42min earlier is within shouting distance. I don't think you should subtract Townhouse. Redfin has SFH/TH/CONDO as disjoint sets of listings. What parameters (URL?) are you using at NWMLS?

    PS: at the time of this writing, SB front page shows 8pm data, but that is just an html update problem. It is usually in sync and on time. And the 3055 displayed value is also in the SB file at time 20:00. By the time you see this the front-page may have been updated.

    03.08.2019 20:00 2767 3055

  47. 797
    Justme says:

    RE: Marc @ 791

    Marc, I replied and got caught in moderation with three links. By the time you see this it may have been unmoderated.

  48. 798

    My Digital Thermometer Reads 25 Degrees on Kent East Hill This Morning

    How this is affecting home heating costs with electricity:

    https://www.pse.com/pages/winter-weather-and-high-bills?utm_source=sendgrid&utm_campaign=corp-highbills&utm_medium=email&utm_term=20190307&utm_content=button

    They predict warmer temperatures next week, but they predicted warmer temperatures last week too…LOL

    Glossing over 100 year records for coldest February [and now March too] :

    http://mynorthwest.com/1292019/seattle-march-weather-february-snow/

  49. 799

    RE: dariakus @ 782
    Stock Investing is the Same Way

    Invest for the long term, albeit real estate is on a different train track now without Quantitative Easing; (QE) Obama bankster welfare to keep interest rates low…

    The stocks went up from Obama’s QE $10T Debt dependency for 4 years too…now they fly on their own. Big difference folks.

  50. 800
    ess says:

    Good news for resurrecting real estate prices in the Bellevue area, and beyond……..

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/amazons-rapid-expansion-seattle-suburb-ignite-real-estate-frenzy-redfin-predicts/

  51. 801

    401Ks Invested at like 2% Interest [CDs] are a Joke and Lock Up Your Money With Hardly No Interest

    BECU Money Market allows instant access to your RE investment $CASH$ with no wait or penalty….you can get 3 free $CASH$ transfers a month too.

    https://www.becu.org/planning-and-investing/insured/money-market

    The MM rates were 0.4-0.5% a few months ago…now they’re 1.0%.

  52. 802
    ess says:

    By softwarengineer @ 797:

    401Ks Invested at like 2% Interest [CDs] are a Joke and Lock Up Your Money With Hardly No Interest

    BECU Money Market allows instant access to your RE investment $CASH$ with no wait or penalty….you can get 3 free $CASH$ transfers a month too.

    https://www.becu.org/planning-and-investing/insured/money-market

    The MM rates were 0.4-0.5% a few months ago…now they’re 1.0%.

    As you correctly note SWE, bank savings rates are starting to rise, but still no investment cigar/award. On line banks that are FDIC insured are paying higher, and non insured general purpose mutual fund money markets are paying close to 2.5%. Furthermore, those institutions have much lower minimums than BECU.

  53. 803
    Eastsider says:

    By richard @ 787:

    RE: dariakus @ 782 – let say prople who bought last spring is just like you bought at peak. you just said after 10 years the property still does not recover,right? so imagine how the buyer here feel 10 years from now(assume similar crash). only here the loss will be bigger since it is way more expensive than florida.

    There is an opportunity cost here. Even if home prices recover in 10 years (note – median homeownership lasts 8.7 years), you are still overpaying to live in the same house compared to renting in that period! The key takeaway is purchase price matters. I believe affordability is an important factor in the health of housing market. Pay attention to that index if you are thinking of buying a house. You can also use rental cap rate to compare renting vs owning. Based on rental cap rate, this market is in the bubble territory IMO.

  54. 804

    American Safety Engineering Factoid on “Toxic Chinese Production Lithium Batteries” Air Shipments Used on Electric Cars, Etc,…

    Pictures, not “alleged non-scientific” partisan opinions sum it up the best. Actual Lithium battery fires:

    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=Awr9JnGq.INcX.kALxZXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyb2tjOXRjBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjY4ODFfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=lithium+batteries+catch+fire+on+electric+cars&fr=yset_ff_syc_hp

    The answer is yes and although safety recalls are issued against an occasional exploding Pinto decades ago….electric cars are not treated “equally” on a flat safety engineering table like Pintos. They can explode folks and yes, new transportation policy by Trump’s FAA is banning all “fully charged” lithium battery aircraft shipments at the request of Boeing too. The Chinese air shipment battery fires broke out on the Dreamliner’s own battery too, and the fire suppression systems can’t put ’em out either [according to Boeing folks]. They’re horrifying.

    Source of news: N. California Epoch Times 2/28-3/3 issue, page A5. You’d never read the real “FAA Safety Engineering” news on Seattle Times on this NWO “lithium battery” topic. Trump reads Epoch Times too….its expensive, but I’m considering a $2-3/week subscription too [after receiving my free copy]….SWE won’t be brainwashed by the NWO….LOL

    Yesterday’s facts are tomorrow’s lies? LOL

  55. 805

    RE: ess @ 798
    Bank Insurance is a Joke IMO

    If we ever go to 1929/2001/2007 stock crashes again, they can “lock” the bank doors to $1000 accounts anyway too…even books and Hollywood have folks hiding $CASH$ inside walls and such…

  56. 806
    dariakus says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 799 – I highly agree. To get an equivalent house to the one I’m currently renting, in roughly the same area (Kirkland), Id have to take on so much debt that my mortgage would be over a thousand dollars more than my current rent.

    Assuming my rent continues going up $100 a year (which I don’t think it will but let’s play with it), it’d be 11 years before it surpasses a mortgage on any house I buy right now.

    Alternatively I could buy an equivalent house that’s almost an hour away, for roughly my current rent payment. Except then I’d have a god-awful commute and my kids would have to abandon all extracurricular activities.

    Not worth it. I’ll happily keep renting in the current situation and buy when/if it makes sense in the future. I’m on track to retire at 53 with millions in a 401k, and within four years my kids will start moving out anyway.

    Rushing to buy right now would be a terrible mistake for me.

  57. 807
    npeterson5068 says:

    By Joe @ 792:

    Who cares about that. What matters is price, and price has been dropping like a rock. Median buyers in December lost 6% of their purchase price in one month. The most recent data shows median prices in Seattle and East Side dropped more since then. This market is a falling knife.

    Huh?

    “…in February, home prices bounced back as the median sale rose by $45,000 from the month prior, according to new data released Wednesday. It was the first time in eight months that prices actually went up, on a month-over-month basis.”

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/market-turnaround-king-county-home-prices-take-biggest-one-month-jump-ever/

  58. 808
    Eastsider says:

    RE: dariakus @ 802 – If you are 10-15 years from retirement, it would be imprudent to buy a house with the intention to retire in this high cost region. Many people now think home prices will climb at the same pace as in the past decade. This is their ‘justification’ for today’s sky high prices. IMO this is wishful thinking.

  59. 809
    Justme says:

    RE: npeterson5068 @ 803

    Median jumped because high-end property had DROPPED enough that the majority of Feb 2019 transactions where in the high end market, most of which were sold at prices above the Jan 2019 median. So it was all about a prevalence of high-end properties in the sold product mix. Read my earlier posts on the topic, and/or read KCBreakouts.pdf from NWMLS.

  60. 810
    dariakus says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 804 – Agreed. I’m retiring in that time frame. Buying now in this region would be a big mistake.

    It would also potentially derail my retirement planning since I may not be able to max out contributions anymore if I have to funnel an *extra grand a month* just to own vs rent.

    Congrats to whoever can buy and feels comfortable in this market. I’m still not sure who those people are, but I wish them the best. Buying for me is absolutely not a worthwhile consideration.

  61. 811
    Boba T. Fett says:

    Not to derail the conversation, but I was hoping to use the collective hive mind here to figure something out.

    I sold my Seattle property and the new owner didn’t update the deed of trust and is not paying their property taxes. At some point, the tax man is going to come for me, I assume, since I’m the only name listed? But most pressing, I’m wondering if I can get the property back on the cheap if there’s a lien placed on it from not paying taxes? Which is “me” not paying taxes?

    This feels a bit underhanded, but it’s a multimillionaire who bought my place, so…

  62. 812
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 775

    Ardell, I think you know you should not make the mistake of assuming that all agents are like you. The reason you are successful is precisely because you are not like other agents. A high level of competence is the exception, not the rule.

    For me it seems that when I purchase something, there are always bugs. Forgotten addenda. Forgotten signatures. Problems with Authentisign. Things that people decide to add in after the most of the contract is signed but a few signatures are missing. It always seems to get ironed out on Thursday night or Friday morning before people leave for the weekend.

    The sale side of my business is a lot more straight forward because I have more control of the process.

    I wouldnt be surprised if there were a problem in the data flow itself, but it does seem to me that sometimes there are big jumps in purchases or sales for no obvious reason.

  63. 813
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 807

    When 80% of my local market was looking at offers on Tuesday, then yes. Most went pending Tuesday night or Wednesday. But I don’t expect to see that % repeated even during Spring Bump this year. Even fast sales are uneven because no review date. Saw a tear down or flip project in Redmond sell in 8 hours yesterday. No inspection. I wonder if they went over asking to shut it down so fast.

  64. 814
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: dariakus @ 802RE: Eastsider @ 757

    Dariakus, the real problem with your model is the assumptions about the future.

    I had a rental house that followed your scenario for several years. Every month for all those years, it was rented. Every year from 1998 to 2007 the rent went up about $100 a year. Then in 2009, the house went unrented for 3 months. I had to drop the rent $600 to get it rented. But in 2011 the rent went up $300 and again in 2012 the rent went up $300, so it was back where it started in 2009. In 2014, the rent went up $500 and then was back to the pattern of adding $100 a year to the monthly rent. It basically looks like this.

    98 1200
    99 1300
    00 1400
    01 1500
    02 1600
    03 1700
    04 1800
    05 1900
    06 2000
    07 2100
    08 2200
    09 1600
    10 1900
    11 2200
    12 2300
    14 2800
    15 2900
    16 3000
    17 3100
    18 3200
    19 3300

    If you take the time to graph this, you will see the issue. At some point your rent might jump far more than your projected amount and then any incremental changes would be from that new base. Or your landlord may suddenly decide that they are tired of having the responsibility of being a landlord and just sell the place you have been in for the last several years.

    I am not saying that renting is a not a good choice for you or others. Just recognize that changes in rent do not necessarily follow a straight line. I think they are more an example of Steven Jay Gould’s punctuated equilibrium model.

    However I really agree that for most people saving and maxing out their 401Ks and their IRAs should be their absolute first priority. My kids are not in a position yet to buy, but they have learned from me to “pay yourself first” and max out retirement savings and household savings. I have recommended to them some of the websites for the FIRE movement (Financial Independence Retire Early). I have also recommended the Boglehead website and books.

  65. 815
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 808

    “Saw a tear down or flip project in Redmond sell in 8 hours yesterday. No inspection. I wonder if they went over asking to shut it down so fast.”

    Almost certainly yes they did go over asking and probably by a fair amount. This kind of thing almost completely died off in the last quarter of 2018, but I am starting to see it again.

    I have a friend in Redmond who just had a short-plat on a multi-unit project in Redmond approved (after at least 5 years in permitting). Could you share that MLS number so I can send it to him?

  66. 816
    Joe says:

    RE: npeterson5068 @ 803

    You are looking at King County. I referred to Seattle and East Side, which continues to drop in price. Also, you’ll soon see that the brief rise in other locations will continue the downward trend shortly.

  67. 817
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    Click the link, click an image in the folder, then click once more for enlarged view. Use back-button to navigate. The graphs compare 2019,2018,2017 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year.

    https://imgur.com/user/justbubble/favorites/folder/6418317/20190309kingcountywaactiveinventory

    King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017,2018,2019 on 2019-03-09
    King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017,2018,2019 on 2019-03-09
    King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017 on 2019-03-09
    King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017 on 2019-03-09

    Editorial: Overall, inventories are again rising this week, and both SFH and Condo are over 2.25X the levels of both 2017 and 2018 at the same date. There was another pronounced step upward this week, uncertain and fairly cold weather conditions be damned.

    But what about the uptake of product? Here is a look back on the last 7 days (1-week rolling values as of ~8am today: For three types of conventional listings (SFH+condo+townhouse), there was 963 (690+157+115) new listings, 300 (221+49+30) new solds/closings (from ~4wk old pendings), and 83 (83+0+0) new pendings (pending within a week of listing). Also there was 531 (420+61+45) pending within 2 weeks of listing.

    When it takes 2 weeks to get 531 pendings, from 1858 units (963 + 895(last week)) worth of <2wk old inventory, the few buyers that are biting are not absorbing much product, with a 28.6% rolling 2-week absorption rate.

    In other words, the buyer strike is still in effect. Judging from from the Feb 2018 median transaction prices released this week by NWMLS, prices are dropping especially hard at the high end, whereas the low-end price are lagging the downtrend a bit, but with fewer transactions, so the buyers have put the sellers on notice they need to lower the low-end prices as well.

  68. 818
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 809 – seattle is a landlord city.

  69. 819
    dariakus says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 809 – I appreciate the numbers. And I know it’s not always going to be linear. That said, even in those numbers you posted there’s only a single ten year span where the increase was over a thousand dollars.

    I’m four years away from being able to significantly downsize (kids start moving out) so that’s changes the equation too. I’ll continue to wait :)

    I unfortunately bought at the peak of the last bubble. I know this is potentially irrational, but that gives a man PTSD. I absolutely don’t want a repeat of that.

  70. 820
    npeterson5068 says:

    By Joe @ 811:

    You are looking at King County. I referred to Seattle and East Side, which continues to drop in price.

    Seattle and Eastside make up the bulk of King County, so your December numbers sound dated.

    By Joe @ 811:

    Also, you’ll soon see that the brief rise in other locations will continue the downward trend shortly.

    You say as if you had a crystal ball. We shall see what happens.

  71. 821
    ronp says:

    I don’t see the point in arguing for or against home buying in the good ole USA. Use the calculator at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html and figure it out for your situation.

    It is likely even if you buy at a peak in prices, and you stay in the house for several years , a single family detached home or good condo will be a great hedge against inflation and reasonable investment.

    BUT if you are a rental investment property owner, the investment equation is different. People here conflate the two sometimes I think.

    Also it is clear buying a house is lifestyle decision. You can rent for cheap and be a boglehead and do great over your lifetime — barring wars and global warming (sorry future kids, we ruined the planet for you).

  72. 822
    Greenhorn says:

    New guy here, but casual reviewer of the site…so honest question for the informed…We pull in around 180K a year…have around 300K saved in house funds…the houses we are looking at are ~1MM mark…never bought a house so that seems like a lot to pay…but it also seems like entry level if you want something that is nice and big enough…question is…there are some new development houses out in North Bend that seem nice and are right at 1MM…should I pull the trigger now and buy it…or wait until this time next year…also does that seem crazy to purchase on my income? Thanks bubble community

  73. 823
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 809 – A few observations/comments –
    $100 / $1200 = 8.3%
    $100 / $3300 = 3%
    It looks to me that your landlord pricing power has ‘deteriorated’ over the 2 decades. During the same period, annualized S&P 500 return with dividends reinvested is 7.08% (without the headaches.)

    Also, you were lucky to be in one of the hottest RE markets in the country. Majority of landlords were not as fortunate as you. Will you luck continue for another 20 years? I doubt it.

    According to the following USA Today article, millennials spend about 45% of their income during their first decade in the workforce, compared to 41% for Gen Xers and 36% for Baby Boomers. It’s worth noting that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development considers anyone who spends more than 30 percent of their income “cost-burdened”, and those who spend 50% or more “severely cost burdened.” I simply don’t see how this can continue any further without social unrest. No wonder AOC is such a big hit among millennials.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2018/05/18/millennials-spend-large-percentage-income-rent/609061002/

    P.s. Based on another recent report, you would need an annual salary of $98,271 to afford rent in Seattle.

  74. 824
    Greenhorn says:

    Should one wait to buy now or no? What is the conclusion from all the data? Is there a consensus that this is turning into a buyers market, or is this still up in the air? Seems like you can just pick your favorite economist and motivate your reasoning in either direction…if you had the option would you buy now or wait a year?

  75. 825

    RE: Deerhawke @ 810

    If you shoot me an email to ardelld@gmail.com I can send it to you. Due to mls rules I can ‘t post a link here since it’s not my listing.

  76. 826

    RE: Eastsider @ 817RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 818
    LOL Eastsider….You’re Positively Snarky ;-)

    Keep up the great blogging. Do I think the landlord risks in Seattle will worsen too? They already have….the low end tenants in Covington include “gypsie troops, convicts and crime-lords” types with mental problems…but hush, we mustn’t be rude these thugs, LOL. My landlord friend spent more on eviction legal and trashed unit maintenance than collected rent…I even served one of his eviction papers as a favor to a friend…LOL….the giant snapping doberman in the tenant’s apartment [destroying it] nearly bit me too during the process serving. He had to replace the dog urine soaked rug after the eviction…it smelled horrible…

  77. 827
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 819 – I didn’t mean to be snarky. But I doubt I changed anyone’s mind. Not nowadays anyway. Happy spring forward!

  78. 828

    RE: Eastsider @ 817
    Yep…$50/hr Household (about $100K/yr) Incomes Usually Don’t Rent Either,

    But High-end $2000/mo Seattle rent will suck about 50% of the 2nd income’s net pay [$100k/yr] at higher end tax tables for reducing spouse’s gross income [marriage penalty bracket creep]. But who makes $100K/yr anymore when the average per capita pay is $20/hr? LOL No wonder there’s 130 single men to 100 single women ratio in Seattle….the working womens’ skills and experience make their pay about 70% of men’s. The Milenial single women are all moved out of Seattle in cheaper Kansas City with my daughter partying and dating….the Seattle guys are “dateless”? LOL

    But older men [women too] with wealth are always sought out by “gold diggers”…I’d stay single in Seattle if you want to ride the RE “bucking bar steer in Seattle” and not be thrown off…LOL…a possible divorce will destroy a man or woman’s life after the gold digger turns on ya…LOL

    That’s why it takes takes about two of ’em [2x$100K/yr] to qualify/afford a home mortgage. How much $CASH$ in the bank to retire like 20-30 years [every $1M $CASH$ equals $5000/mo retirement for a few decades]? Will 75% divorce rates haunt Seattle again like the 90s? Stay tuned for next week’s episode of “Real Estate Conundrum” the new Netflix docu-drama…LOL

  79. 829
    Don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 817

    Where did the 98k number in your PS come from?

  80. 830
    Justme says:

    Request:

    Has anyone saved the KCBreakouts.pdf (et al) files for the last several years? If so, would you be willing to zip them up and place them on some file sharing site (or torrent)? I would like to do some analysis of them. Unfortunately, waybackmachine has a very incomplete collection of these monthly files.

  81. 831
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 817

    There are times when it is better to buy real estate and there are times when it is better to choose other investments. I think 1998 was a good time to buy. It was an especially good time to buy if you agreed on the price in 1996 and then the seller procrastinated on selling, but the market went up in the meantime– twice.

    But one of the things about real estate is that if you choose well and you are handy, you can make some of your own luck. This house in Greenlake was ignored by a busy owner and had really been under-maintained. The tenants were not really what you might call model citizens. Four goths (a tattoo guy, a piercer and two strippers) who had put in blackout curtains and then painted the inside walls and ceiling of the house black. The decor of the house suggested a scary Halloween house with lots of skulls, Wiccan imagery and a full-sized Satanic Altar complete with pentagram and goat skull. (Really. No joke. You could not make this stuff up.) I think you can agree that this is not the kind of staging that helps to sell the average home-buyer. An under-market offer was better than no offer at all.

    For a 4-bedroom, 2-bath house on a busy street, the price was $145,000 and the rent (after PITI) yielded a 5.7% cash-on-cash return for our 20% down investment. We refinanced about 2004 and got a low cost variable. At that point, our cash on cash return was about 12.5% including money we put in for paint, landscaping and maintenance (after the Goths left). Four years ago, we paid off the mortgage so it makes a nice annuity.

    You can calculate what the return would have been if we had put the $30K investment into the S&P. The house is now worth about $625-650K and the rent is $3300. This summer the rent is scheduled to go up again by $100. Even in an environment where the rental market has been overbuilt, it rents consistently because it is still 3-5% under market.

    Now the question is whether this investment choice was smart or lucky. I am the kind of guy who admits to luck whenever it comes his way.

    But it is also true that luck favors the prepared mind. I did a full analysis of the overall Seattle rental market, the neighborhood and the location. My operating theory then was the same as now– Seattle was then (as it is now) becoming one of the country’s leading technology centers. If you start with a good cash-on-cash investment, it will outperform other areas over time.

  82. 832
  83. 833
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 824 – There is no disagreement that you made a good rental investment.

    You can calculate what the return would have been if we had put the $30K investment into the S&P. The house is now worth about $625-650K and the rent is $3300.

    Are you suggesting your $30k investment has become $625k? I don’t think so. You got lucky in many ways (refinanced at lower rates, booming Seattle job market, etc). Will the same favorable trends continue? I don’t know. But we have witnessed the damage higher mortgage rates did to housing markets in the past 12 months.

    I would love to see your full analysis of the overall Seattle rental market that justifies buying/owning a rental property in this market. I did and gave up a while ago. Still, I wish you the best. :)

  84. 834
    Notme says:

    NOW is a good time?
    because THEN was a good time?
    Heck, I don’t think so

    -a bubble-monger logical fallacy haiku

  85. 835
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 824

    But it is also true that luck favors the prepared mind.

    ———————————————————————————————————————————–

    Or as Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Roman Statesman said a few(approximately two thousand) years ago:

    “Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity”

  86. 836
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 807

    I have never worked with Ardell so I cannot speak about the part of your statement which pertains to her however your sentence of “A high level of competence is the exception, not the rule.” is so painfully spot on.

  87. 837
    Coconut says:

    When are the Feb stats going to be updated by The Tim?

  88. 838
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 831

    QUOTE:There are times when it is better to buy real estate and there are times when it is better to choose other investments. I think 1998 was a good time to buy. It was an especially good time to buy if you agreed on the price in 1996 and then the seller procrastinated on selling, but the market went up in the meantime– twice.

    LOL!! I guess this is as close as were a going to get to an admission that buying now is not a good idea. Oh, how the tune has changed.

    By the way, April 2018 was the peak-stupid month to buy. But at that time the tune was the same old REIC propaganda.

    To think about all the losses and destruction and societal cost that could have been avoided was it not for all the propaganda and the buyers who could not see through it. And the people who did see through the propaganda, but decided that a greater fool would make their profit someone else’s loss.

  89. 839
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 838 – The same mindset and justification used by car salesmen and drug dealers. “Well, if I didnt sell it to them, they would be taken advantage of by another dealer, so heh, heh, you know, somebody’s gotta do it. It might as well be me taking their money.”

  90. 840
    Jeff says:

    Actually you’d be way behind the S&P now! 630% total return since 1996. So $145K account with $30K of equity would be over $900K.

  91. 841
    uwp says:

    By WhatDoIKnow @ 770:

    **Using the same numbers in the left-hand column as 2018 above. Please correct me if I shouldn’t be comparing the same left-hand column numbers.

    Unfortunately, you must have missed the memo from Justme that the numbers on the left hand side are no-longer to be trusted. Most likely, they are tools of the REIC.

    The right-hand column is the column that you should pay attention to, nay, that we always paid attention to.

    That shows only an increase of 88 (2907 to 2995), less than half of the increase in 2018.

  92. 842
    JustNoise says:

    Been watching this sh*t shack on Redfin out of curiosity. Sitting on market since Jan 2018. Recently went “hot” on Redfin. Next day, price increased $20K and they added in the description that price is not negotiable and will only take all cash offer. Getting my popcorn. O_O

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/8724-19th-Ave-NW-98117/home/101625

  93. 843

    RE: softwarengineer @ 756
    It Warmed Up a Bit This Morning….LOL

    It was 25 degrees yesterday morning, 28 degrees this morning….break out the bikinis and Corrollas….LOL

    Is your ice scraper broken from “continuous” morning use yet? Will we get an electric heat respite from our home maintenance upkeep? Or will the fun go and on…LOL

    My new furnace meets the new “green” Open Border Party (OBP) requirements, but good gosh….will take me 24 years [I’ll be dead by then?] to recover the $8000 cost…not workable at all. The Populists are working a new clean air and water strategy [they already cleaned out the lead in the water in Michigan, that Obama ignored] that takes effect gradually [over decades] and affordably/logically without this “North Korean”type hydrogen ICBM fusion bomb hit on our already failing manufacturing economy [mandatory exploding electric Chinese Lithium battery cars with safety records 100s times worse than the exploding Ford Pinto percent defects of total]. The OBP hates American Safety Engineers and skills and experience….Japan simply hates American Safety Engineering, like the FAA safety audits on their “Japanese engineering drawing” for the newer “grounded” 737 MAX worldwide fleet…the FAA is useless BTW, they need the 737 MAX drawings in English and made in America again. Period.

    Do I see RE price reductions from this Boeing safety engineering scandal? Yes, I do….at a theater near you soon too…

  94. 844
    Joe says:

    RE: Greenhorn @ 822

    It it would hurt too much financially and emotionally to see that $300k deposit vanish into thin air as you become the ultimate bagholder, then buying now isn’t worth it.

    A plausible case is that you buy, then price declines and you have to move for whatever reason, causing you to lose your 100% equity and incur additional losses. Then at the bottom of the market (and likely the bottom of a recession), when others are scoring nice real estate, you have no deposit money and must work another 10 years to build that up, while RE and stocks are again rising for everyone else. By buying now, you set yourself up for another 10 years of missed opportunity and missed wealth build.

    Ask yourself – what is the realistic upside from here, versus the realistic downside? In other words, why pick up pennies in front of a steam roller?

  95. 845
    dariakus says:

    RE: Joe @ 842 – You just described my exact situation. Bought at the peak in 2006/07 and had to relocate. Not about to buy now…

  96. 846
    WhatDoIKnow says:

    RE: uwp @ 840 – You said the stats in the left-hand column aren’t to be trusted, but the only stats in the sidebar for 2018 are in the left-hand side. From where are you pulling stats you quoted for 2018? I’m looking at the SFHlog.txt stats.

  97. 847
  98. 848
    Justme says:

    RE: WhatDoIKnow @ 846

    Let me see if I can explain this simply: What you call the “right-hand column” (estately) in 2018 continues as “the left hand” column since a NEW column of redfin data is added.

    01.07.2019 09:00 2609 <—-estately
    01.07.2019 10:00 2609 2826 <——-redfin
    01.07.2019 11:00 2609 2817

    The redfin data was added because the estately data was not updated for long periods of time, and in general seemed to have become unreliable or just plain wrong since about Xmas 2018 (Dec 23 or thereabouts).

    Columns have been added before, it is not a new occurrence. If you count the number of TAB characters in each line of the file you can see how many columns have gotten added (and discontinued) over the years. Go back to the top of the file and you can see some pretty frequent changes.

    As always, when it comes to these data, I do not in any way shape or form claim to speak for The Tim. The above is just my understanding and interpretation., but I hope it helps.

    PS: Note that wordpress blog software generally will convert multiple tabs to a single space for rendering purposes, so you won’t see all the old empty columns when I paste some chunk of the data file in a comment like this one.

  99. 849
    uwp says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 847:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/end-of-the-seattle-boom-flow-of-new-residents-to-king-county-on-the-decline-records-show/

    Then last year, we took an even bigger tumble, down to 65,000, which is similar to 2014 levels. While that’s still far above the historical average…

    Oh no! The number of new residents coming in has fallen all the way down to… uh… “far above the historical average.” This is truly ominous news!

  100. 850
    David says:

    Those who do not buy now, will regret it later – a lot of price ‘sin’ can be overcome if you hold for 10 years. And you will be 10 years older – with a house. As opposed to being 10 years older without a house.

  101. 851
    Justme says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 847

    (I posted the following at seattletimes, feel free to head over there and give it a thumbs up.)

    The article mentions that the DoL number do not capture people that arrive but do not get a WA license. But there is another group of people that the DoL numbers are not capturing: People who are LEAVING the state. So the 14,000 Californians/year number is utterly wrong. The NET migration between CA and WA is much lower (and also shrinking). I don’t have a reference handy right now but the NET numbers can be found from the US Census migration data.

    Bubble-mongers always want to exaggerate population numbers. That’s why they love to tout fake data, such as numbers that count in-migration but not out-migration. Journalists and the general public should take notice of such propaganda.

  102. 852
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 851 – You are not including illegal aliens moving to the area. They tend to not get driver’s licenses.

    BTW, a lot of states hand out 10-year licenses – why the rush to switch licenses?

  103. 853
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: uwp @ 849 – Calm down, Bro. Deep breaths…

  104. 854
    Matt P says:

    By David @ 852:

    RE: Justme @ 851 – You are not including illegal aliens moving to the area. They tend to not get driver’s licenses.

    BTW, a lot of states hand out 10-year licenses – why the rush to switch licenses?

    Because it’s the law including updating car tabs. Most states require you to get a license and tabs of the state you move to within X days of moving to said state, WA being one of them.

  105. 855
    ShortBuyer says:

    Anybody can share experience with a short sale. What banks can finance purchase of a short sale?

  106. 856
    whatsmyname says:

    By Coconut @ 837:

    When are the Feb stats going to be updated by The Tim?

    Tim must be very busy, but here are a few of the easier ones.

    Feb 2019………………. Number……….MOM……….YOY ……………. Buyers
    Active Listings ………2,850 …………+0.01% …..+109.71%………..+… but down from 126.9% in Jan.
    Closed Sales ………… 1,224 ……….+15.77% ……+1.00% …………. – … Change in direction
    Pending Sales ………..1,904 …………. -5.99% …….-5.49% ………… + …Change in direction
    Median Price …..$655,000 ……….+7.38% ……. +0.78% ………… – …Change in direction

  107. 857
    Justme says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 847
    RE: Justme @ 851

    Major propaganda bust

    I just discovered in the originally referred Seattletimes article that one very astute user going by the name user1534152504738 posted a fantastic comment with a link to a FRED graph of net migration numbers for King County from 2012-2016.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NETMIGNACS053033

    Brilliant link. The most recent data point on that graph says that in year 2016, the NET migration to King County (KC) was 5932 persons. Not a typo, read that again: Only 5932 persons. That completely slays the bubble-monger out-of-state drivers-license hype, which does not account for out-migration at all.

    In 2016, King County had 76,328 incoming out-of-state drivers licencees, according to WDL data file. Compare that to the actual 5932 net migration to KC in 2016 according to aforementioned graph, which is based on US Census ACS survey.

    Read it and weep, bubble-mongers. Your propaganda just got busted in a major way.

    Everyone else, especially potential home buyers should take notice. There is no ongoing massive net change in King County population. While I’m at it, I should mention again that another source of population estimates, namely OFM, is also utterly wrong because it is based on the *assumption* that all new housing units are filled (“Filled-If-Built”). But they are not automatically filled with newcomers, as is also known from the massive 10.5% Seattle rental vacancy rate published in January.

  108. 858

    RE: softwarengineer @ 843
    Boeing Came Out With a Statement Blaming the Foreign Pilots for Inadequate Skill Training

    When the planes dive and crashes; special “manual” control sequences [not automatic] must be incorporated in the newer control electronics. I agree with Trump, our pilots don’t need special training to fly Boeing planes, they need “old fashion” cockpit automatic controls again…

    Assuming that’s all that’s wrong with the “grounded” 737 MAX worldwide fleet…

    We all assume more complex is better. In this case it isn’t? Why are they designing in more control complexities? Its like ya need to hit a switch first or the brakes don’t work…

  109. 859

    RE: Justme @ 856
    I’m Not Sure If Your Analysis Covers All the Bases

    But it sure covers at least two of ’em….great blog…

  110. 860
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Justme @ 838

    What do you think the king county median price will be in 2035?

  111. 861
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Jeff @ 840

    Jeff, that is actually inaccurate assuming that Deerhawke took our a “normal” mortgage. The numbers would vary wildly but if he put 3.5% down or 10% down or 20% down. Let’s assume he put 20% down which is the likely maximum he would have put down. On a 145k purchase that would mean he put down $29,000. Based on his description he has made money on the investment since the start (positive cash flow) which is a significant thing to ignore but to help your narative lets ignore it.

    I will accept your 630% return without googling to see if that is accurate. Today that 29k S&P investment would be worth around $182,700. Whereas instead Deerhawke has an asset worth by his estimation 625-650k which for a Greenlake area home seems extremely reasonable. He has outperformed the S&P by 340% ish even while giving you the benefit of the doubt at nearly every assumption. People just don’t understand the power of leverage. It does cut both ways. In a short term pinch it can really screw people but over a long period of time it will yield significantly juiced returns.

  112. 862
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 856

    I believe the Seattle Times article said drivers license applications had dropped to a current pace of 64,000 annually, and that the trend has been accelerating since 2016. If there was net immigration of 5900 to Seattle when license license applications were 76,000, then there is likely net migration out of Seattle now that gross immigration to Seattle has dropped by 12,000. This makes sense given Amazon no longer seems to be creating new positions in Seattle. With the fast turnover they have at headquarters, they may even be losing head count.

    This is also consistent with the 10-20% RE price declines we’ve seen over the past nine months and the drop in transaction volumes.

    Interestingly, Seattle RE prices aren’t just dropping because sentiment has changed. With net migration out of Seattle, buyers may be striking because their numbers in Seattle are simply dropping. The 25% drop in drivers license applications from Chinese and Indian immigrants is particularly striking.

    Look out below. The price declines will take at least 1-2 years to play out, and likely more given the recession everybody knows is coming hasn’t even begun yet.

  113. 863
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 850:

    Those who do not buy now, will regret it later – a lot of price ‘sin’ can be overcome if you hold for 10 years. And you will be 10 years older – with a house. As opposed to being 10 years older without a house.

    This. Shall we do a little analysis on this scenario?

    Let’s assume you overpay at today’s prices for a $800k home in Kirkland and the price recovers to where it is today a decade later. You sell the property in 10 years for the same price you pay today. (Note: US median homeownership is 8.7 years.)

    RE transaction costs is about 10% or $80k. Assume $5k/yr maintenance/repair costs for a total of $50k. Interest payment on a $800k mortgage loan at 4.5% interest over 10 years is $330k. Property tax payment at $80k. Total costs over 10 years = $540k.

    If you pay rent @ $3k/mo. The total rent is $360k. Add 20% it comes to $430k.

    In your scenario, the price ‘sin’ costs $110k. You don’t overcome it. The tenant will have an additional $150k in his investment account.

    The numbers are rough estimates but I can assure you the conclusion is sound in the given scenario.

    P.s. @dariakus claims to ‘save’ about $1k/mo by renting which adds up to $120k over 10 years.
    Pps. As soon as I finished writing this, there is another dummy post that is either ignorant or misleading. Sigh.

  114. 864
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 862 – Solution: Don’t buy an $800k house in Kirkland. Buy in White Center, etc and hold.

  115. 865
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 863 – I think you mean Kansas. LOL.

  116. 866
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 860
    RE: Jeff @ 840 –

    Correct, with real estate, there are several advantages, but the primary one is leverage.

    With 20% down and loan costs, we invested about $30,000.

    At the end of the very first year we made a cash-on-cash return of 5.7% meaning after PITI+M (principle, interest, taxes, insurance and maintenance costs) we made about $1710. But it is important to note that we had also paid a year of interest toward principal and we had a year of appreciation at that point. And we were able to get a tax deduction for depreciation. Subsequent years, the numbers just got better as there was an increase in the rent, the cash-on-cash return, the appreciation and the principal paid.

    I invest in a Vanguard S&P 500 Fund and I can guarantee you that this little rental house has dramatically outperformed the S&P.

  117. 867
    thecheeseoftruth says:

    RE: Justme @ 856 – I think you lack understanding of what these graphs really indicate. Look up other cities’ net migration on that site, such as fast growing regions like Austin and Nashville. Also compare the numbers to SF, LA, San Diego. Their net migration numbers are far lower or well into the negative. King County tops all of them. You are misinforming people in your rants.

  118. 868
    dariakus says:

    RE: David @ 863 – I see claims like this a lot, but it overlooks the significant “quality of life” factor. I could move 1+ hours away from everything and possibly secure a comparable house to the one I’m renting right now for a roughly equivalent monthly payment, but then I’d have to drastically change my entire lifestyle. My kids would have to abandon all of their friends and extracurricular activities, and my commute into work would be murderously long.

    I choose to continue to rent because not only is it fiscally sensible for me, it’s sensible for life in general right now.

  119. 869
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 865 – This much I can agree with you. In a booming market, whether RE or stock, leverage is a significant advantage.

    In a stable or declining market, you are paying dearly for the leverage. Nobody is loaning you money for ‘free’. Your paychecks go to interest payments so you can have the privilege of carrying a $800k loan? Unless you believe, or want others to believe, that we are still in a booming RE market… LOL.

  120. 870
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 865

    Deerhawke

    Nice analysis – thanks for the info – I have had similar results. I only wished I had kept my investment in Seattle – but we have more or less tracked the results here in South Snohomish County as in King County over time.

    You are never going to convince a certain segment of the population that buying in the long run for LONG TERM RESIDENTS is GENERALLY better than renting . Look on the bright side – a potential renter with a good job and assets that refuses to buy a residence for ideological reasons is the best renter of all.

    An additional problem for SOME in investing in a S and P 500 fund is human psychology. Many studies have indicated that the typical S and P 500 investor does not have the same returns over time as the S and P 500 fund generates minus all costs. Why? When that market drops precipitously as it did a decade ago, the natural reaction on the part of some is to bail out. In addition, exuberance or overconfidence has others buying at the tops of markets. The stock market is one of the few places where investors actually wait for prices to go up before they invest, for confirmation that the market will continue to go up, Of course, if investing life was that easy = we would all be rich. Thus investors often do the opposite of what they should be doing – buying high and selling low. With a house – there isn’t the ease of selling on the day or week when bad news appears on the horizon.

    As to driver’s licenses – please note that determining population increases or decreases by drivers licenses is less effective than in the past, as so many in their 20s and 30s don’t have drivers licenses. The drop in the percentage of drivers amongst the young is precipitous over the past 30 years. I guess they will have a hard time relating to the movie “American Graffiti”.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-licenses-uber-lyft/78994526/

  121. 871
    Coconut says:

    @dariakus 866

    This is probably the most sensible analysis of the situation I have read in a while. Ya, I rent too. I could afford a very nice place an hour away or a relative dump closer to town. I have a hard time paying a uber premium simply to own a place that I hate design and space size wise that gets me to downtown in a reasonable time (like less than forever)…when I could pay the same for a large new place with a horrid commute…so renting seems like the logical and reasonable choice. Any money left on the table by not owning (and this is not guaranteed so I don’t know why people assume it is…real estate is the biggest echo chamber) is simply a put option you are buying until you can find a place you love all the way around…commute,style, size, and price. This strategy with any other financial investment would be prudent when the bid ask spread is out of wack..so why isn’t it with real estate? …enter the never-bubblers

  122. 872

    RE: Joe @ 861
    Undocumented Immigration (Illegal Immigration) Can’t be Counted

    How can it, its undocumented…LOL

    Chain Migrations can be monitored from your car window….just drive around and count old folks with foreign dress in the Seattle area…they want your American citizen Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid you’ve been paying taxes for all your lives too..

  123. 873

    RE: Coconut @ 869
    LOL Never Bubblers!

    You have rolling on the ground in laughter…have a cup of java and smile ;-0

  124. 874
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 856

    I guess that none of the bubble-mongers want to talk about the elephant in the room: That population in King County is barely growing at all, and all the population propaganda numbers cooked up from deeply flawed OFM or incomplete WDL statistics simply are false.

    RE: Eastsider @ 862

    Eastsider wrote a nice what-if analysis based on the oft-repeated bubble-monger anthem “even if you bought at the 2018 peak, you will not have lost money in 10 years”. Turns out buying did worse than renting.

    RE: Deerhawke @ 865

    But that does not stop the bubble-mongers. They get into their moss-pit time-machine, go back to 1998, and brag about how the house they bought then did so well. Does that mean buying that same house in 2018 or 2019 at peak bubble prices would be also a good investment? Hell no. But if I had that moss-tub time-machine, I would go back to 1992 and buy some CSCO stock. Just remember also go back to 1999 and sell it before it went downhill again.

    The problem here is rampant dishonesty and rampant survivor bias. Buying in 1998 being good does not mean that buying any year, especially a PEAK PRICE, also will be good.

    And take another look at the true population change numbers for King County. It is really something else than what the REIC propaganda department has been feeding you.

  125. 875
    Lulu says:

    @NW

    This one should warm your heart. The speculator must have taken a loss on this one considering the extent of the renovations.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1480-NW-80th-St-98117/home/496439

  126. 876
    Market Psychologist says:

    From our friend at HBB:

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/buyers-finally-get-the-upper-hand-in-hottest-us-housing-markets/ar-BBUFj9D

    ——

    The real estate frenzies in West Coast cities have become the stuff of lore: buyers jostling at open houses, homes getting offers sight unseen, bids coming in hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking.

    That’s all over now.

    Just ask Kelly Randall, an Amazon employee who listed her renovated Seattle condo for $539,000 — a bargain compared with the $615,000 her friend got last year for a smaller place in the same building. Almost four months and four price cuts later, Randall’s still waiting for an offer.

    “My timing sucks,” she said. “It’s a little frustrating.”

  127. 877
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 872:

    RE: Justme @ 856

    I guess that none of the bubble-mongers want to talk about the elephant in the room: That population in King County is barely growing at all, and all the population propaganda numbers cooked up from deeply flawed OFM or incomplete WDL statistics simply are false.

    Wow! Justme discovered that people move out of King County as well as into it. I wonder when he will discover that people are born and die, and those effect the population as well. Tune in next week to find out!

    Eastsider wrote a nice what-if analysis based on the oft-repeated bubble-monger anthem “even if you bought at the 2018 peak, you will not have lost money in 10 years”. Turns out buying did worse than renting.

    Yes, you are right. In a theoretical “what-if” analysis wherein Seattle housing has a worse outcome than buying at the peak of 2007 (reminder: the greatest financial crisis of the last 70+ years). Then yes, you will do moderately better renting. You have slayed the REIC Giant with this clever thought-experiment.

    On the other hand, if you join me in another what-if scenario: if Seattle-area houses increase at the insane rate of inflation (2-3 percent annually) over the next decade. Buying comes out substantially ahead.

    I won’t bother taking you to wild fantasy land, where Pink Ponies romp and Seattle is the next San Francisco…

  128. 878
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 867 – my landlord bought several rental properties in 2007 at the peak. in the next few years, he has to pay extra 8K every month to cover the mortgage. His wife works for Microsoft I guess that helps a lot. He rode out the crisis and eventually sold those properties in the coming housing boom. Not everybody can pay extra 8K every month for a few years.

  129. 879
    Justme says:

    Selective forgetfulness is a key attribute of being a successful bubble propagandists. Forget that population estimates based in OFM or WDL have holes so big that you could drive a truck through them. Forget that breathless population hype was the foundation of bubble hype for years, along with the well-known inventory fallacies and job fallacies.

    Also, it is very important to forget completely that the Fed (FRB) monetized 3.5 TRILLION USD in bonds to pump the housing market and the stock market.

    That’s how badly the 2002-2007 bubble ended. But never mind. Let’s have another one! Prices only go up! Everyone knows that! (Just kidding).

    Yeah, people are getting better informed. The bubble propaganda is not working anymore, because it has all been exposed as a pack of lies. And the buyer strike is in full swing.

  130. 880
    whatsmyname says:

    1. Bearish columnist uses gross WDL inbound numbers to show Seattle market is deteriorating.
    2. Permabear 1 posts the column in SB to illustrate deteriorating Seattle market.
    3. Justme concludes that those numbers were being used, not by the bears that used them, but by “bubble mongers”, and for the opposite purpose – defeating the major propaganda that never was.
    4. Justme concludes net population change equals net migration equals net change in driver licenses.

  131. 881
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 862:

    By David @ 850:

    Those who do not buy now, will regret it later – a lot of price ‘sin’ can be overcome if you hold for 10 years. And you will be 10 years older – with a house. As opposed to being 10 years older without a house.

    This. Shall we do a little analysis on this scenario?

    Let’s assume you overpay at today’s prices for a $800k home in Kirkland and the price recovers to where it is today a decade later. You sell the property in 10 years for the same price you pay today. (Note: US median homeownership is 8.7 years.)

    RE transaction costs is about 10% or $80k. Assume $5k/yr maintenance/repair costs for a total of $50k. Interest payment on a $800k mortgage loan at 4.5% interest over 10 years is $330k. Property tax payment at $80k. Total costs over 10 years = $540k.

    If you pay rent @ $3k/mo. The total rent is $360k. Add 20% it comes to $430k.

    In your scenario, the price ‘sin’ costs $110k. You don’t overcome it. The tenant will have an additional $150k in his investment account.

    The numbers are rough estimates but I can assure you the conclusion is sound in the given scenario.

    P.s. @dariakus claims to ‘save’ about $1k/mo by renting which adds up to $120k over 10 years.
    Pps. As soon as I finished writing this, there is another dummy post that is either ignorant or misleading. Sigh.

    You can do this analysis with the NY times rent vs buy calculator and the only variable that really matters is price growth. For me, 10 year hold period 0 price grow it says better to rent. Just 1% growth pushes it into probably better to buy and 2% is definite buy. Anything past that is burning your money if you don’t buy.

    This is using comparable dwellings. It is possible to rent much worse housing in the same area than it is to buy a crappy house since there’s a land price floor. So basically, I have to make a choice based on an unknowable future housing market. I will probably buy because the freedom of owning (able to change house as I see fit, owner can’t decide to jack up rebt significantly or sell place forcing me to move) is worth possibly losing some money over a 10 year period.

  132. 882
    Blake says:

    Meanwhile… China is doing great! ;-)
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-03-11/whats-causing-chinas-economic-slowdown
    “Rising wages pose another problem. Chinese wages now match or exceed those of most other emerging market economies, making China a less attractive destination for foreign companies. On top of that, high living costs and administrative burdens have reduced the flood of rural peasants into cities to a trickle. The average disposable rural income in 2018 was 14,617 Yuan a year, low enough to make moving to the city prohibitive when the average price of an apartment in urban areas is now 14,678 Yuan per square meter. (!!)

    Forces that drove Chinese growth in recent years are withering. China once relied on a trade surplus to boost growth, but today the country’s account is effectively balanced. Investment in fixed assets, such as factories, machinery, offices, and apartment buildings, was traditionally a major source of growth. But such investment fell as a share of GDP from 82 percent in 2016 to 71 percent in 2018, and a further drop is expected in the years ahead, as one in four apartments in China now sit empty and auto manufacturers are operating at just over 50 percent capacity.”

    And… they are printing more Yuan!!
    Warning: Some Exchange Traded Funds just started adding Chinese companies to a few of their indices. Beware!!

  133. 883
    Eastsider says:

    By richard @ 875:

    my landlord bought several rental properties in 2007 at the peak. in the next few years, he has to pay extra 8K every month to cover the mortgage. His wife works for Microsoft I guess that helps a lot. He rode out the crisis and eventually sold those properties in the coming housing boom. Not everybody can pay extra 8K every month for a few years.

    They could have lost all principals and the properties if they stopped mortgage payments. This happened to many homeowners as evidenced by hundreds of short sales and foreclosures following the housing crash. On a $800k house, one can easily lose $200k and ruin credit for years.

  134. 884
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 874:

    On the other hand, if you join me in another what-if scenario: if Seattle-area houses increase at the insane rate of inflation (2-3 percent annually) over the next decade. Buying comes out substantially ahead.

    This. Show me your calculations. Or stop lying.

    Just a reminder – renting today is almost $1000/mo cheaper than owning (@dariakus).

  135. 885
    dariakus says:

    RE: Matt P @ 878
    Rent vs. buy calculators are great for long term investment, but they’re not accounting for several things. For me, primarily, it’s location. It’s not possible to buy anything in the area I live and come out of the transaction with a mortgage payment anywhere near as low as my current rent.

    Quality of life has a dollar value on it, and that fluctuates from person to person, but it’s definitely got a value.

    Is buying a house worthwhile if it increases your daily job commute by an hour? What if you’ve got an established life in a specific area and in order to buy you’d not only have to increase your work commute, but also forego all of your extracurricular activities and other things? Rents go up and down, my salary will go up and down, but that house an hour away from my current life will never get closer.

    I’m renting a 5 bedroom house in Kirkland for under $3000, with a courteous and generous landlord who’s only increasing rent by $100 a year. She’s got the house paid off and loves us as tenants since we’re pretty low maintenance.

    To get a mortgage even *close* to $3000 on a comparable-sized house and lot, I’d have to move out to Lake Stevens in the north or Kent in the south. Or I’d have to cash out my 401k.

    With work in Redmond and the rest of life split between Bellevue and Seattle, moving that far away just to say I own something is a very bad investment. Is there a good chance I’d come out ahead financially in 10 years? Of course. But what a miserable hit to my current way of life. The tradeoff is not worth it at current market prices.

  136. 886
    Matt P says:

    RE: dariakus @ 882 – You’re looking to have a rent payment equal to your housing payment. If there was no price inflation, it would make sense to rent, but even 1% price growth on a house of 750k is a lot making buying the better option. The problem is, we don’t know where prices are headed.

  137. 887
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 878 – The NY time calculator is a good start but it still assumes tax deductibility. You will need to reset the marginal tax rate to zero to get a more accurate picture. In any case, the numbers you get is the result of your input. (Garbage In/Garbage Out.) I strongly disagree with your assessment – “Just 1% growth pushes it into probably better to buy and 2% is definite buy.” Study my previous comments closely if you care about your financial wellbeing.

    P.s. I am generally for homeownership based on affordability. But not at this price.

  138. 888
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 884:

    RE: Matt P @ 878 – The NY time calculator is a good start but it still assumes tax deductibility. You will need to reset the marginal tax rate to zero to get a more accurate picture. In any case, the numbers you get is the result of your input. (Garbage In/Garbage Out.) I strongly disagree with your assessment – “Just 1% growth pushes it into probably better to buy and 2% is definite buy.” Study my previous comments closely if you care about your financial wellbeing.

    P.s. I am generally for homeownership based on affordability. But not at this price.

    RE: Eastsider @ 884 – I did say for me, though, maybe not for everyone. I’d be using a VA loan, so no down payment to lose. Everyone should run their own numbers.

  139. 889

    RE: dariakus @ 882
    Old Age Comes Fast Too

    Quality of Life is not your house its being happy and living healthy…..we’ve been brainwashed in Seattle.

  140. 890
    Matt P says:

    By softwarengineer @ 886:

    RE: dariakus @ 882
    Old Age Comes Fast Too

    Quality of Life is not your house its being happy and living healthy…..we’ve been brainwashed in Seattle.

    Commutes play a big part in health – physical and mental. Commutes longer than 45 minutes each way are highly linked to obesity, heart disease and a slew of mental health issues including depression and anxiety.

  141. 891
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 876:

    Selective forgetfulness is a key attribute of being a successful bubble propagandists. Forget that population estimates based in OFM or WDL have holes so big that you could drive a truck through them.

    What would you like to use?

    We have the US Census, done every 10 years along with their annual estimates, or the annual WA State OFM estimates. They both generally line up: for the last 5 years Seattle has grown faster than King County, which has grown faster than Washington state, which has grown faster than the United States as a whole.

    Are you arguing that it is not growing?

  142. 892
    dariakus says:

    RE: Matt P @ 887 – So what you’re saying is that not only would buying be a huge financial burden in the short term, it may in fact kill me! :)

  143. 893
    dariakus says:

    By Matt P @ 883:

    RE: dariakus @ 882 – You’re looking to have a rent payment equal to your housing payment. If there was no price inflation, it would make sense to rent, but even 1% price growth on a house of 750k is a lot making buying the better option. The problem is, we don’t know where prices are headed.

    But how does one afford a $750k house? Assuming you’ve got the $150k down payment to avoid PMI, you’re looking at ~$3k. Add on to that average KC property taxes and you’re up to $3600. That’s almost exactly $1000 a month more than my current rent, and I’ve wiped out most of my cash savings to boot. And that’s not accounting for property taxes going up if housing values keep going up, nor is it accounting for things like HOA, maintenance, etc.

    I’m a huge fan of owning a house, but it makes no sense for me at the current prices. I’d have to give up entirely too much, both financially and from a quality of life perspective.

    God bless the people who can afford it, though–they’re providing me with a great place to rent and raise my family in the middle of a wonderful community and for a great price!

  144. 894
    Eastsider says:

    By Matt P @ 885:

    I did say for me, though, maybe not for everyone. I’d be using a VA loan, so no down payment to lose. Everyone should run their own numbers.

    Haha… VA loan! Yes, in that case, you have little or no risk if you default (except your credit.) But you have significant upside if home price appreciates, even marginally. I can see why buying a home makes sense for you. VA loans are heavily subsidized to the detriment of its own financial health.

  145. 895
    Matt P says:

    By Eastsider @ 891:

    By Matt P @ 885:

    I did say for me, though, maybe not for everyone. I’d be using a VA loan, so no down payment to lose. Everyone should run their own numbers.

    Haha… VA loan! Yes, in that case, you have little or no risk if you default (except your credit.) But you have significant upside if home price appreciates, even marginally. I can see why buying a home makes sense for you. VA loans are heavily subsidized to the detriment of its own financial health.

    Why to the detriment? VA loans have the lowest default rates. But putting aside the special case of VA loans, it still all comes down to price appreciation: flat or negative – bad time to buy. Slightly up 3% or more, good time to buy. We just don’t know which it will be.

    3% appreciation on a 700k house is $21k per year, with a 20% down payment that is a 15% return on your down payment a year. After 10 years with no extra payments, you’ll also have paid down the loan 20% roughly, so with the inflated sales price of 940k, loan principle leftover of $448k, you make about $450k profit depending on transaction costs.

    You then just have to figure the difference between owning the house per month vs renting with opportunity costs. $1k cheaper per month over 10 years is $120k plus the $140k down. The 140k principle with $1k invested each month with a 7% return gives you $455k over 10 years, basically a wash. So anything above historical price growth of 3% on houses means better to buy. Of course this assumes a steady $1k difference between buy and rent but rent generally increases faster than property taxes do on an absolute basis – other than taxes, mortgages stay the same and become cheaper vis a vis inflation over the long run.

    We also shouldn’t consider special situations like dariakus where he found a below market value rental. He should stay because it’s a better deal, but considering non outliers ie market level rent, no VA loan, then price inflation of 3% or more still signals buy even in Seattle. It’s a risk whether we actually get 3%. Let me know if my math is wrong though.

  146. 896
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 892 – I was referring to the zero down payment VA loans. They are basically a call option on the house for the borrowers. If the house appreciates, you win. If it depreciates and you walk, VA loses. No commercial bank will offer zero down payment loans without sufficient collaterals (equivalent to your 20% down payment for example).

    Your other calculations based on 3% appreciation would work in a normal market where homes are ‘affordable’. But in a bubble market, you run the real risk of depreciation and principal loss as I have commented earlier.

    Lastly, dariakus’s situation is not uncommon. I have done rental cap rate analysis and renters are getting a great deal in this market, especially from small landlords. Without meaningful appreciations, rental properties are losing propositions in this market. Banks are not going to make a commercial property loan without sufficient rental cap rates.

  147. 897

    RE: Eastsider @ 893

    “I have done rental cap rate analysis and renters are getting a great deal in this market, especially from small landlords.”

    I would add long term renters who started at a lower rent than current fair market and whose rent has gone up less from the landlord than the market has increased. People who couldn’t move and rent at that same price today, but the landlord is happy to have no vacancy and only increases the rent a small amount each year for good, trouble free tenants. These people likely have the lowest rents.

  148. 898
    dariakus says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 894:

    RE: Eastsider @ 893

    “I have done rental cap rate analysis and renters are getting a great deal in this market, especially from small landlords.”

    I would add long term renters who started at a lower rent than current fair market and whose rent has gone up less from the landlord than the market has increased. People who couldn’t move and rent at that same price today, but the landlord is happy to have no vacancy and only increases the rent a small amount each year for good, trouble free tenants. These people likely have the lowest rents.

    That’s my situation exactly :). I’d love for circumstances to favor me owning a home in the area someday, but I’m in no hurry.

  149. 899
    Notme says:

    When you get busted
    just try and change the topic
    propagandists do

    -a bubble haiku

  150. 900
    Notme says:

    Sellers can be rude,
    they insulted my offer
    Must not insult buyer

    -a what-is-good-for-the-goose bubble-bust haiku

  151. 901
    Notme says:

    Buy cubist McMossBox
    you too can be wordly, elite
    it’s the price you pay

    -a Seattle-sophisticated bubble haiku

  152. 902
    N says:

    @ dariakus 890 – +1. Renting really does seem to be the sweet spot at the moment. And I can’t tell you how many coworkers and others have make the remark “I wouldn’t be able to afford my house if I was buying today.” And many of these folks are $200k+ households.

  153. 903
    Bumble says:

    By N @ 899:

    @ dariakus 890 – +1. Renting really does seem to be the sweet spot at the moment. And I can’t tell you how many coworkers and others have make the remark “I wouldn’t be able to afford my house if I was buying today.” And many of these folks are $200k+ households.

    RE: N @ 899

    That is us. Our household income could support buying a primary residence in Seattle, which would be our second home in the region. But instead we rent in Seattle because there doesn’t seem to be any value in this local RE market, just risk or sideways value at best. I’m a value buyer and I think this market has topped. Now i’ll confess I’ve been wrong in life a time or two, and I might be wrong now, we’ll see. But my bet is that this RE market doesn’t have much upside in the near term. Yes Deerhawke, what i’m doing is kind of like shorting the RE market because i’m choosing to put my housing savings elsewhere until the RE market drops further or trends sideways. I’m betting it drops.

  154. 904
    David says:

    RE: Coconut @ 869 – If you are renting, someone else controls your economic fate. If you own, you know the cost.

    Based upon your analysis, you’d be better off in an RV.

  155. 905

    RE: Matt P @ 887 – Yes Matt

    Working women are dying sooner too and at an alarming rate from cardiovascular diseases per the American Heart Association.

  156. 906

    RE: David @ 901 – Yes David

    Retired folks love RVs….its just the Seattle area makes them almost impossible to get spaces to set up homes…we hate cheap housing in Seattle?

  157. 907
    David says:

    S&P500? Nah. I bought about $50k of Boeing stock yesterday. BA has at least a 7 year backlog on planes right now. And plane fleets set to double the next 20 years.

    Assuming China doesn’t actually achieve a foothold in airplanes (hopefully they put BAE out of business).

    My long-term prognosis for the US is that we falter economically. We just don’t have the right kind of population mix anymore. So if you are going to own a house outright – now might be the time to buy it.

    We might be able to reverse the demographic trend if we let in massive Chinese immigration. Base upon what I have seen in China personally, we could easily replace every person in the USA with a Chinese person and China would also be better off.

  158. 908

    RE: Blake @ 879 – Blake You Have the Funniest Blogging Style….kinda snarky but in a positive way…

    And yes your point is well made…I heard giant empty “brand new” shopping malls and even an empty airport are in China…they are all set to add another 100,000,000 to their over burdened population now and its time to shuffle more coal into the burners so America gets blamed for their ecological disasters…meanwhile [without more immigration] America’s birthrate is righteously declining at a 1.7 rate to reduce risks. America is the bad guy….LOL

  159. 909

    RE: David @ 904
    Actually David

    The picture you paint sounds plausible…the affect on Seattle RE is likely Bear, not Bull IMO.

  160. 910

    Seattle Landlords Get a Boost from Trump Now?

    Trump to sign Executive Order making a student loan an U of W, etc, college loan their”cost” responsibility too…if the student can’t get a “decent” job after paying for college, the college gets the debt back….

    LOL….the professors get pay decreases or laid off if their “legal American citizen” students can’t find a decent American job. Its only fair.

    This would PUMP big bucks into Milenials’ pockets without transferring the U of W’s admissions scams [foreign students with phony transcripts] and subsequent debt on the tax payer. Hey Bernie, this beats free college for all, Seattle’s general economy isn’t footing the bill either.

    It should bring honesty back to the lies and corruption in our colleges too, no more lies about “jobs galore” if ya get a college degree. Hades, degreed high school teachers at Kent Applebees are working P/T to make ends meet now and they have real jobs…they told me this…

  161. 911
    ess says:

    By David @ 901:

    RE: Coconut @ 869 – If you are renting, someone else controls your economic fate. If you own, you know the cost.

    Based upon your analysis, you’d be better off in an RV.

    For long term residents that can afford to buy – this is one of the great arguments in favor of owning one’s own house. While taxes and expenses are always going up, the 30 fixed year mortgage is not. So long as an owner is responsible and doesn’t raid his or her equity through a refi – that principal and interest payment will remain constant. That payment over years will be less in terms of inflation as the dollar decreases in buying power.

    Of course long term renters in a tight rental market do have some benefits. They do get to make new friends and acquaintances at rent control and affordable housing rallies. But all in all, especially in retirement, best to focus activities in other areas, and have to rely on others for living subsidies.

    Many sad stories are presented for those on a fixed income which has not kept up with the cost of their rent. Many of those individuals once believed they had a great rental deal – only to watch it disappear through increased rents, or even the loss of their premises due to a sale and redevelopment.

  162. 912
    Coconut says:

    RE: David @ 901

    Put down the kool aide for a hot second…”control your economic date” how? I have plenty of reserves that I am not using on a house, can leave at a drop of a hat to another city with minimal financial obligation, I am well invested in a close to risk free return….don’t see the chains that bind me sorry….by your measure I should take all the money I have and margin myself several times over on the hype that the investment never has a negative return…honestly if you bought recently …you would be better off in an RV right now not me

  163. 913

    RE: David @ 904 – If You Bought $50,000 in Boeing Stock Yesterday?

    I’m sure I’m not the only one wondering why? The Boeing stock has gone down about 7% to date, but this scandal hasn’t even begun to un-ravel IMO. If that “$50K stock” put hasn’t finalized I’d cancel ASAP.

    The American FAA and Transportation Safety Board are in litigation with the American pilots and the “rest of the world” over this issue and I see the American FAA director is “acting” not permanent [the Open Border Party (OBP) won’t approve a lion’s share of Trump’s cabinet for two years].

    Trump is on the American pilots’ side BTW on this issue, he made that clear too. The EU has the crashed Ethiopian flight data recorder….they’re analyzing it today. The plane may have cockpit protocol safety concerns but smoke and shaking before out of control sound to me [an experienced aerospace safety engineer] like more than just cockpit control problems. Lord only knows at this point what “totally” caused the 737 MAX grounding and what [and how long] it will take to fix…

    IMO, this issue will cross hair on the legitimacy of the FAA engineering auditing foreign aerospace parts’ drawings that aren’t in English…even Trump doesn’t address this…sounds like the American FAA engineering isn’t needed anymore anyway…the NWO has mucked it all up. Trump was concerned with China making the Boeing P-8 Program 737 A/C in China too…it all hits the fan David….at a theater near you.

  164. 914
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 907 – Holy cow, now this would be epic !! These left-wing libsters have been screwing young people for 20 years now.

    I paid $12/hour at one of the top 10 unis in the US back in the late 80s. Saddling young people (which I include as anyone under 28) with so much debt for a piece of paper before they earn a penny is ridiculous. A smart person is going to do well without that paper. Over-credentialed bullsh!t is what is out there now.

    “Trump to sign Executive Order making a student loan an U of W, etc, college loan their”cost” responsibility too…if the student can’t get a “decent” job after paying for college, the college gets the debt back….”

  165. 915
    Justpassinthru says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 907

    Won’t happen.

    My guess is Trump is trying to bump up his 2020 chances by appealing to millenials and newly minted 18 year old voters heading to college. Not a bad strategy considering he will need every vote he can grab to have a fighting chance.

  166. 916
    Coconut says:

    RE: @ 908

    For ever example you give me about someone on fixed income not being able to afford increased rent I can give you 5 for people that lost their whole way of life in the last 20 years on real estate peak busts. There is nothing that will compensate for failure to plan your retirement – if you are unable to afford it – that’s on you. Government is there to help keep most of the streets, but no one will hold you hand in life…either young or old and you shouldn’t be banking on that. Real estate will not make you rich and is not a perfect hedge to inflation. You have to adapt as the market dictates…right now the market is screaming at you to sell and rent…you can motivate your reasoning anyway you want but those are the apple you are dealing with….let’s do an experiment…save this thread and post and let’s pick it back up in 18 months…then let’s see who would have been better off selling now (or not buying) in KC and renting…just running the numbers.

  167. 917
    Blurtman says:

    Condos are being dumped like a bad burrito in the North County, San Diego, a region I track. If you believe in global warming, many of these areas will literally be under water. It appears to be a selling frenzy.

  168. 918
    Blurtman says:

    By David @ 911:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 907 – Holy cow, now this would be epic !! These left-wing libsters have been screwing young people for 20 years now.

    Saddling young people (which I include as anyone under 28) with so much debt for a piece of paper before they earn a penny is ridiculous.
    —–
    People are saddling themselves. Is accountability now out of fashion?

    The liberal elites will insist the deplorables (middle class and poor whites) succumb to their pet policies like affirmative action, but their kids, well, ……

    “Trump to sign Executive Order making a student loan an U of W, etc, college loan their”cost” responsibility too…if the student can’t get a “decent” job after paying for college, the college gets the debt back….”

  169. 919
    Chu says:

    RE: Benjamin @ 758

    I short home builder etf(NAIL) last summer until the end of 2018, very slow moving. Not worth it. I think i shorted at $50, sold it at $30.

  170. 920
    David says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 915 – This implies freedom of choice and responsible decision making with the consequences.

    Therefore, make student loan debt bankruptable/dischargeable and I will agree.

  171. 921

    RE: David @ 911 – Yep David

    The math and science Open Border Party (OBP) grades on a about 90% homework [no test emphasis] cheating and copying from families [perhaps one or two homework cheat copy do the whole class?] that have math professional skills parents cheating for their kids in our Kent High Schools. The Green River College documents a 9th grade understanding of like algebra on their entrance exams from Kent high schools. They have to take high school math all over again in college even with straight “As” from cheating….the math professors [BTW, I could be a math professor too…LOL] TOTALLY AGREE with me and consider the OBP public schools a complete scam and joke…GEDs [9th grade level] now make up a lion’s share of the high school graduation. The public schools would never admit it either…

    Its HORRIFYING but true. LOL….my kid is a honor student bumper stickers are a complete joke too.

  172. 922

    RE: Blurtman @ 914 – Yes Blurtman

    Buying a condo is like catching Herpes, ya can’t get rid of it…just give it about 10-15 years of inadequate HOA maintenance and its destroyed to become a run down apartment. At least a modular condo association where ya own the land and the modular is stand alone allows the home owner control to fix it right. Condos lack that freedom, the village idiot HOA board destroys the condos and ya pay like $600/mo HOA [in Renton, more like $2000/mo in Seattle] fees to destroy it too. My modular HOA fee includes water, sewer, cabana, “the WALL security” and park lands; its $185/mo. Big difference folks…

  173. 923
    ess says:

    RE: Coconut @ 913

    The discussion focused on individuals who bought their housing at a younger age, and what the consequences of that purchase versus renting resulted over a number of years or even decades. In that regard, most individuals who bought and held for a number of years weather residential financial storms very well. Those who bought at the top, at any age, and needed to sell immediately into a housing recession did not do as well.

    The purchase of rental real estate or property for a home – unless for flipping purposes, is not an eighteen month proposition. Some economists have stated that buying a home should be prepared to reside in it for seven or more years. Anyone thinking of buying a property and holding it only for eighteen months, unless flipping that property is taking on an inordinate amount of risk and would be considered speculators, generally foolish ones at best. But then, the same could be said for stocks, and stock mutual funds, gold or silver or anything else. Yes, there are day traders – a vast majority of them lose money. So any comparison of renting compared to buying over eighteen months is not a useful indicator of what should be a longer term investment. But take a different number – ten or twenty years, and the results are much different, generally in favor of home owners over renters.

    But feel free to rent all your life. That is the benefit of living in a somewhat free society, where individuals can make those decisions, and suffer the consequences or reap the rewards.

  174. 924

    RE: David @ 917
    Hey David

    My $2000 Trump Tax Refund Just Cleared the Bank

    My 2018 IRS refund INCREASED 142% over Obama’s 2017 old tax charts….I’m dancing now….LOL

    I noticed mathematically that the single incomes not only didn’t have that second income marriage penalty bracket creep….the standard deduction for singles is about 63% of double incomes too without bracket creep on a second household income….you’re better off single and the bottom 95% of the household incomes with the Trump tax plan? IOWs 95% of pay less taxes than we did under Obama. Eat cake ya $250K/yr+ top 5% household incomes, you can afford it…LOL

    I don’t know about the rest of you Bubbleheads, but seeing the extra $2K into my bank account today means I wear my red MAGA hat proudly through 2020 too, like the rest of Trump’s base….you OBP folks can lose all your Medicare and Medicaid with green taxes sucking ya dry….LOL…go back to your Manafort/Cohen useless ranting and see if that reduces the bottom 95% of household incomes’ federal taxes. Bernie has hand out for your money too…LOL

    You OBP members have no unified agenda. Period.

  175. 925

    RE: Justpassinthru @ 912 – LOL Justassinthru

    What do you base your wild allegations on, Mother Goose Open Border Party Fairy Tales?

    The Trump base is unchanged and strong to date with Trump’s recent Gallop Poll Ratings surging up lately with no end…its been 52% lately….what was Obama’s? LOL

    I scream, “Trump, Trump, Trump”…as I $CASH$ my HUGE tax refund in…the rest of his base will be getting their refunds too. BTW, the furloughs slowed my refund administration by about 2-3 weeks, so what….its $CASH$ added to my Money Market account now…you OBP just have Trump “mole hill” prostitution allegations to point at that make Hillary GROSS NEGLIGENCE offenses look like Mount Everest in comparison…

  176. 926

    RE: softwarengineer @ 922
    I apologize justpassinthru

    I didn’t miss-spell your handle “justassinthru” on purpose…it was my typo, not a typical OBP defamation on purpose comment…you’re new on the Bubblehead pundit group…welcome! ;-)

  177. 927
    Justme says:

    The bubble-monger propagandists are the masters of presenting false choices.

    Choice A: Buy at the peak
    Choice B: Feel free to rent all your life

    Anyone ought to be able to see through this type of nonsense. But that does not seem to stop the cockamamie propaganda, which gets repeated over and over and over again. Desperation mixed with dishonesty, or it must work on some potential buyers?

  178. 928
    Justme says:

    Speaking of buying at the peak recently….about the Seattle (city not metro) condo market. Feb had another momo drop in condo prices of -5.5% (!!), and the accumulated 1yr drop (yoyo) was -17.01%, according to SeattlePI article.

    “Seattle’s condominium market hit a bump in the road in February; median sales prices decreased as inventory rose further and sales activity flattened. The citywide condo median sales price dropped 17.01% compared to last February to $444,000, which also reflected a one-month dip of 5.5%. While we have seen other year-over-year declines, this is the first double-digit drop in the median sales price since the market bottomed in spring 2012.”

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlecondo/2019/03/11/february-2019-seattle-condo-market-update/

    Condos are usually the canary in the coalmine when it comes to warning of impending busts. But then again we also have Eastside SFH leading the way in price drops.

  179. 929
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Justme @ 925 – I was going to post this! Condos are surely a canary in the coal mine for this bubble. Investors seem to be offloading them with gusto. I have been monitoring listings for some time and I am so glad to see this. The prices have been insane, especially relative to the quality of Seattle’s condo stock, which is deplorable, since all the new construction are tiny “luxury” apts.

    Has a thread ever broken 1K comments? If the Tim doesn’t post new info, we are headed there!

  180. 930
    Matt P says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 926:

    RE: Justme @ 925 – I was going to post this! Condos are surely a canary in the coal mine for this bubble. Investors seem to be offloading them with gusto. I have been monitoring listings for some time and I am so glad to see this. The prices have been insane, especially relative to the quality of Seattle’s condo stock, which is deplorable, since all the new construction are tiny “luxury” apts.

    Has a thread ever broken 1K comments? If the Tim doesn’t post new info, we are headed there!

    I don’t think we’ve ever hit 1k and surprisingly, we are going to do it without Kary.

  181. 931
    Redon says:

    Anybody knows if The Tim is around here?? Or he just quit posting updates lol!

  182. 932
    dariakus says:

    By Justme @ 925:

    Speaking of buying at the peak recently….about the Seattle (city not metro) condo market. Feb had another momo drop in condo prices of -5.5% (!!), and the accumulated 1yr drop (yoyo) was -17.01%, according to SeattlePI article.

    “Seattle’s condominium market hit a bump in the road in February; median sales prices decreased as inventory rose further and sales activity flattened. The citywide condo median sales price dropped 17.01% compared to last February to $444,000, which also reflected a one-month dip of 5.5%. While we have seen other year-over-year declines, this is the first double-digit drop in the median sales price since the market bottomed in spring 2012.”

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlecondo/2019/03/11/february-2019-seattle-condo-market-update/

    Condos are usually the canary in the coalmine when it comes to warning of impending busts. But then again we also have Eastside SFH leading the way in price drops.

    Do we have stats on the condo market in the 2000s crash? I wasn’t following condos at the time, was just watching SFH value immolate instead.

  183. 933
    sfrz says:

    RE: Redon @ 928 – You can follow him on Twitter. https://twitter.com/the_tim?lang=en

  184. 934
    sfrz says:

    Sweet Jeebus. What is this fresh hell? It blends in so well with the neighborhood. It won’t last long! Buy now for a mere $1.2mil.
    Like the Steal Estate description of Ballard- “most vibrant & upbeat communities in Seattle.” I’ve heard Ballard being described many things, but vibrant and upbeat wasn’t in the list. I hope that paint is graffiti resistant and there is no green space or parking for RVs and tents.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/841-NW-62nd-St-98107/home/160686410

  185. 935
    sfrz says:

    Komo News- 3/16 @ 8pm “Seattle is Dying” Rotting from within. There is a trailer within the article. Truly horrific.
    https://komonews.com/news/local/komo-news-special-seattle-is-dying

  186. 936
    Justme says:

    RE: sfrz @ 931

    So many of these ugly crapboxes. Look at the streetview to see the cheap OSB that is underneath the cubist exterior.

  187. 937

    RE: Justme @ 924
    Great Blog Justme!

    You made me smile this morning. When did factual details in America become this obscure?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/28/poll-majority-of-americans-favor-a-border-wall-over-a-green-new-deal/

    Similarly to your blog’s premise, the 18% poll approval Congress defies the Trump Executive order; calling the southern border humanity crisis not a national emergency …LOL…the OBP includes phony Rhinos (12 of ’em) that voted against the Trump emergency order and they are not up for re-election soon either. Yeah, 18% approval, I wonder why? LOL

    Nope 51% polled want the WALL over the New Green Tax Grab Deal….its that simple. Sounds to me the “emergency order” veto by Trump will UP his poll numbers…LOL

    The poll numbers are like +/- 20%, but the base number disparity even makes that error window a complete joke, IMO. Veto this emergency order rejection Trump, its your pathway to a victorious 2020, mathematically. The American people simply HATE Congress.

    IMO, the Populists are the real “old fashion” Democrats for the people…the NWO Democrats [or the OBP] have become split in two and both pieces smell like manure to us majority voters…do you want a “smiling do nothing Obama raising healthcare and raising income taxes” or a poisonous Socialist giving everyone free medical care and fascist control of your home maintenance $CASH$ and transportation? LOL…its time to vote OBP…good luck ;-)

  188. 938

    RE: softwarengineer @ 934
    The Real Democrat, Trump, Lowered My Health Care Premiums in 2018

    My Medicare Part B only went up to $135/mo from $134/mo…my real insurance silver plan Blue Cross went down $1/mo….my Social Security went up 2.8%, my Money Markets went up 50%…I’m raking in more tax free interest on my “locked box” investments….its all good.

    Conversely, for eight years under the Obama OBP, my like $600/mo portion for “simple” health insurance went up like 10% a year, Social Security was frozen with federal pay and pensions, my saving interest was like zero, and they handed out welfare “in the Trillions” to the banksters like Easter eggs Quantitative Easing…do they think we’re stupid not to notice this change? How can Obama call himself an “old fashion” Democrat? He doesn’t deserve that kind of recognition, the data doesn’t lie.

    I used to vote all Democrat BTW before 1999, before Clinton bowed to the WTO. Remember the “Battle of Seattle” in 1999, that’s when the real Democrats were eliminated by the NWO.

  189. 939
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 924:

    The bubble-monger propagandists are the masters of presenting false choices.

    Choice A: Buy at the peak
    Choice B: Feel free to rent all your life

    It does seem absurd on the face of it. However, this may be more of an individual perceptual issue. If one always believed in real time that “this is the peak”, (as you seem to have done since starting here in 2015); then those would seem to be the only possible choices.

  190. 940
    David says:

    By sfrz @ 932:

    Komo News- 3/16 @ 8pm “Seattle is Dying” Rotting from within. There is a trailer within the article. Truly horrific.
    https://komonews.com/news/local/komo-news-special-seattle-is-dying

    Mexican meth, cocaine, etc combined with long-term cheap labor immigration pushed by Dems now (RINOs also) are the bain of the push-pull of economic currents that kept people moving into a productive life. The people of Seattle have no one to blame but themselves.

    Also, the death of religion in Seattle spearheaded by the LGBTQXYZ radicals acting as a stalking horse and pretending church people are an imminent danger to them. In reality, the only danger they pose is pointing out how wrong the LGBTXYZers are – which the LGBTQXYZers go rabid over.

    I lived about a mile from where the nation’s first true mass murderer killed ~35 boys around my ‘hood’ and buried the bodies. HE strapped the boys to plywood then raped and murdered them. Strange you never hear about this guy – I wonder why? There has been rot in the USA for along time now – not just Seattle. All before Ted Bundy was on the scene.

  191. 941
    Justme says:

    Bubble-mongers post loads of lies. Case in point, the total lie that I “seem to have said” that “this is the peak” continually since 2015.

    My one and only time setting a time for the peak was when I predicted the Case-Shiller Seattle index to peak by Dec 2017, and then not be surpassed for 12 months. It was a bold prediction. As it happens, CS peaked in May 2018, so I was off by 5 months in my prediction. I’d say that my accuracy was stunningly good, considering how difficult it is to predict the financial psychology (and insanity) of masses.

    None of the bubble-mongers would acknowledge even the existence of a bubble in the 2012-2019 timeframe. I always said it was a bubble, that gambling on housing during a bubble was dangerous to the fiscal health, both of individuals, and society as a whole, and terrible for anyone that needed a roof over their head.

    Bubble-mongers should go crawl under a rock and be ashamed of all the harm they have done to society. Better yet, do something about the harm you caused. But I’m not holding my breath that these sociopaths will even feel shame.

  192. 942
    Coconut says:

    RE: ess @ 920 –

    Obviously, I am not talking about a flipping model…you went on a rant about a scarecrow…I am talking about who would be better off…person that rents now and doesn’t buy…and person that buys now instead of renting and suffers unrealized loss of value compared to the purchase price. It does not matter how long you hold the house…if you bought it cheaper to begin with you will eventual reap that ROI whenever it is that you sell it…because you paid less to begin with… I could do the math for you for an example, but my intuition tells me that is a waste of time…seems you are deep in the kool aide

    I am totally convinced that the market will go down. I am a bear. I have an opinion based on facts…could I be wrong…maybe. But, maybe not…to think the market will continue to rise over the next 18 months is a gamble on the wrong side of odds given where we are at with increased inventory, falling price velocity, potential for recession since we are in the longest bull market in history, and the general wild man approach to the presidency (you see Trump’s budget proposal?) …your only hope is more QE from the FED which may happen, and that may continue to raise asset prices…but they will only do that if we are back to negative growth or high unemployment…both further compound the housing value deterioration.

  193. 943
  194. 944
    Realistic says:

    By Justme @ 933:

    RE: sfrz @ 931

    So many of these ugly crapboxes. Look at the streetview to see the cheap OSB that is underneath the cubist exterior.

    That’s true, but aren’t most houses built like this nowadays?

  195. 945
    ess says:

    RE: Coconut @ 939

    If you believe that you should rent for the next 6 months, year, eighteen months, or forever – that is your prerogative to do, and what you decide to do is of no concern of mine. I am just stating the truism, that over time, most owners have a superior financial result than renters. When the person should buy, and how long the person should own is subject to many factors, and guess what? It may not even work out for the homeowner in all cases – it is called life – with no guarantees.

    What I do care about are those renters, especially age 50 and beyond who after renting all their lives, feeling smug that they didn’t get suckered into buying an overpriced house or condo because the “rent vs. owning” calculator told them never to buy, or they didn’t want the responsibility of owning and maintaining their own property, not start complaining about escalating rents or being forced to move because of redevelopment. I don’t want them to expect that others should subsidize their lifestyle and the choices they made through rent control or subsidized housing. And the expectations that someone or something – the rich, the government or some other entity will take care of them is getting worse amongst Americans – especially amongst the millennials who want free college, free health care, free everything!!

    All I know is that I started out with half a duplex as an undergraduate, have a few rental properties now,, and was able to earn two professional degrees and stop working full time as of age 41 to travel the world, both as a result of real estate investments. Not bad for a kid who was homeless at age 18. So not only will I drink the Kool Aid as you suggest, but when I do so, I will toast the renters that made my life really great!

  196. 946
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 938
    Perhaps it’s my memory, but weren’t you ‘splaining to us in 2015 how the evil Fed had pushed prices up to where they couldn’t be sustained, and that the price fall was coming soon?

    Doesn’t your current framing of buying choices to be “Buy at the peak” indicate we are at the peak now? (I will admit prices this February were the highest median February prices on record)

    Do we not have an archive of probably hundreds of your posts following this same line of thought? I really think parsing this down to what month did you make a specific (wrong) prediction to some index is to leave meaningfulness behind for the sake of spurious accuracy. Forest for the trees, I think they call it.
    But each to his own.

  197. 947
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 938:

    None of the bubble-mongers would acknowledge even the existence of a bubble in the 2012-2019 timeframe. I always said it was a bubble, that gambling on housing during a bubble was dangerous to the fiscal health, both of individuals, and society as a whole, and terrible for anyone that needed a roof over their head.

    Wait, what? You were telling people that 2012 was a bubble? In 2012? And 2013?

    Your honor, I rest my case.

  198. 948
    Justme says:

    Predicting bubble-mongers, on the other hand, is very easy.

    They will write lame diatribes.

    All day long.

    What a snoozefest they are.

    Hey, someone wake me up in time for a weekend update.

  199. 949
    JWoods says:

    Just pulled trigger on a SFH in Eastside, after looking around for months. One thing I can tell you is that bidding war is back, this one I competed with several other offers and went 6% above asking to get it. Another house I looked earlier was listed and went on pending on the same day, before I could even submit an offer.

    @Deerhawke appreciate all your comments and real experience sharing, my read of Seattle real estate market is similar as your, I think we’ve got a long runway to go, look forward to seeing more from you!

  200. 950
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 944
    Soooo, you’ve got nothing?

  201. 951
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 950 – While others do argue on here, I think your sole purpose for being on here is arguing for arguing sake. It just gets tedious, man.

  202. 952
    kenmorem says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 951:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 950 – While others do argue on here, I think your sole purpose for being on here is arguing for arguing sake. It just gets tedious, man.

    if you don’t call out people for posting BS (like softwareengineer), then those erroneous statements start being portrayed as truths (GOP strategy – chant ’til it’s true)

  203. 953
    kenmorem says:

    By JWoods @ 949:

    Just pulled trigger on a SFH in Eastside, after looking around for months. One thing I can tell you is that bidding war is back, this one I competed with several other offers and went 6% above asking to get it. Another house I looked earlier was listed and went on pending on the same day, before I could even submit an offer.

    @Deerhawke appreciate all your comments and real experience sharing, my read of Seattle real estate market is similar as your, I think we’ve got a long runway to go, look forward to seeing more from you!

    this guy is clearly a russian bot. dontcha know, there’s a buyer strike goin’ on?

  204. 954
    Coconut says:

    RE: JWoods @ 949

    Sorry for your losses. If you were in a bidding war right now you are not doing this right

  205. 955
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 951 – Today I am arguing against against a false argument that people of my persuasion are claiming a false dichotomy of essentially “buy the peak or rent forever”. I don’t think this kind of misrepresentation is helpful as an underlying assumption, or in furthering any real discussion of the housing market. So I do think it should be highlighted.

    If you find that more tedious than the misrepresentations and name calling to which you are not objecting, I’m afraid I can’t help you.

  206. 956
    Matt P says:

    By kenmorem @ 952:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 951:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 950 – While others do argue on here, I think your sole purpose for being on here is arguing for arguing sake. It just gets tedious, man.

    if you don’t call out people for posting BS (like softwareengineer), then those erroneous statements start being portrayed as truths (GOP strategy – chant ’til it’s true)

    The best course for him is to just ignore his posts. He’ll never change what he says, so better to not draw attention.

  207. 957
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Coconut @ 954 – exactly. I wish him luck, because somebody left their money on the table. That’s gonna leave a mark.

  208. 958
    JWoods says:

    It’s shocking to see so many ignorant people on this forum, there are definitely people worth listening to, which is why I check this site from time to time, but there are so many nonsense noise, people with no real world experience whatsoever arguing. My suggestion would be: wake up, do some ground work yourself and make some real money.

    I made my last real estate investment in 2016 and have been sitting on sideline for 3 years, with the recent price drop and rate drop, combined with the strong local job market, I decided to pull the trigger again. I think I could make 20% gain in a year after all expenses, we will see what happens.

  209. 959
    Coconut says:

    @Jwood

    LOL….is all I have to say…you are clearly suffering from selection bias…no amount of logic will help you right now as you are looking for bandwagon joine…this market will go down YoY.

  210. 960
    Eastsider says:

    By JWoods @ 958:

    I think I could make 20% gain in a year after all expenses, we will see what happens.

    This. Enough said!

  211. 961
    Eastsider says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 953 – Your trolling clearly is not working. See my previous comment. LOL.

  212. 962
    dariakus says:

    By Eastsider @ 960:

    By JWoods @ 958:

    I think I could make 20% gain in a year after all expenses, we will see what happens.

    This. Enough said!

    I really hope it’s not going to require a 20% gain in a year to be worth it to you because those… are not good odds.

    Otherwise, congrats on your purchase JWoods! You’re far braver/richer than I :)

  213. 963
    steven says:

    RE: dariakus @ 962

    lol 20% after fees. that’s like minimum of 30%? considering reet, commission and closing costs right? 30% gain yoy on a declining market. you must be getting some nice joint

  214. 964
    JWoods says:

    @coconut, @steven, @dariakus, @eastsider:
    Just curious, how many real estate investments do you own?
    Have you ever made any money from RE?
    Do you know what kind of investment project I bought? What plan do I have?

    I’m just sharing with folks what I see happening out there right now, of course there is no guarantee for 20% return in a year, but I think it’s possible with this deal. I think about the worst case, most likely case, and best case scenario before I go in every deal, with spreadsheet, plans, contractor bids, and sales comparison. What do you have???

  215. 965
    Bumble says:

    By JWoods @ 958:

    I think I could make 20% gain in a year after all expenses, we will see what happens.

    Zillow thinks you are off by -22.6% on your projection.

    http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/seattle-market-declining-in-2019/

  216. 966
    Justme says:

    Weekend preview

    Let’s have a look at King County SFH new inventory the last two weeks, and how many of them went pending. As of Friday morning ~8am, there was 450 SFH pendings with less than 2 weeks on the market. During the same period, there were 630+696=1326 new SFH listings.

    This means that only 34% of new product in a 2 week period managed to get an offer that got accepted. That is a lousy uptake of product. So, it certainly appears that the buyer strike is still on, and sellers must keep lowering their price to move their product.

    This weekend, there will still be a few buyers that want to entertain the possibility of making an offer. My advice to them is to negotiate hard, and to tell the seller’s agents that, as buyers, they will not put up with being insulted by the sellers’ high demands. Inform sellers that you will not be giving away your hard earned wages.

  217. 967
    steven says:

    RE: JWoods @ 964

    i bought in 2016 and sold last year with a 30% profit . My parents made most of their fortune over RE. i don’t do stocks. i don’t know what plans you have or what you own. Do you know what my plans are or what i have? Why would it matter what you have if your projections are ludicrous? i judge you based on what you have to say; not what you have. Would it have mattered if you were Schiller himself? maybe, but none of the real estate giants are predicting the way you are.

  218. 968
    steven says:

    RE: JWoods @ 964

    in fact, name ANY professional projecting 30% gain and you will have my apology for saying that your predictions are pathetic.

  219. 969
    JWoods says:

    RE: Bumble @ 965
    You are confusing overall housing market appreciation with investment return of the specific RE project.

  220. 970
    JWoods says:

    RE: steven @ 968
    You are making the same mistake as Bumble @ 965. I don’t think you have basic understanding of how RE investment works.

  221. 971
    Coconut says:

    RE: steven @ 968

    Don’t listen to JWood…he is the exact guy we will take money from…we need these people…go JWood go…buy everything you can to get your 20% gain…I believe you. Everyone that has contradicted you here are light weight RE investors

  222. 972
    Eastsider says:

    By JWoods @ 964:

    Do you know what kind of investment project I bought? What plan do I have?

    Let me guess. You have found not one, but multiple SFHs with potential 30% gains within a year of flipping. You are far more bullish than the other bulls on this site. Lately, they have been talking about buying and holding for long term gain (e.g. 10 years) in this market. Never mind, the world will be ending in 12 years. LOL.

  223. 973
    Blake says:

    By JWoods @ 970:

    RE: steven @ 968
    You are making the same mistake as Bumble @ 965. I don’t think you have basic understanding of how RE investment works.

    He’s leveraged, so he doesn’t need a 20-30% price appreciation to make 20% off his investment. Perhaps only 5%…. But if it drops 5% or more he lost 100%!

    When it drops 20% he’ll be in a hole… hah!
    (Yes I do own properties myself in 4 different states. I would NOT buy in Seattle NOW!)

  224. 974
    Brian says:

    Hmm… wonder if this was the one that JWoods got… pending today soon after being listed which is a rarity these days.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/8027-NE-130th-Pl-98034/home/276397

  225. 975
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 973 – Even if he’s leveraged, he still needs to overcome the transaction cost of nearly 10% before he makes any profit. The only people making money in this deal are agents and financiers.

  226. 976

    RE: Brian @ 974

    Listed on the 13th. Pending on the 15th. Why are you calling that “a rarity”? Not for Kirkland especially if we are going to break away from “offer review date” as the norm.

  227. 977
    Brian says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 976:

    RE: Brian @ 974

    Listed on the 13th. Pending on the 15th. Why are you calling that “a rarity”? Not for Kirkland especially if we are going to break away from “offer review date” as the norm.

    That’s no where near as common of an occurrence these days as it was 1-3 years ago. I rarely see anything go pending that quickly anymore. It usually has to be underpriced for that to happen.

  228. 978
    steven says:

    RE: Blake @ 973

    leveraged and shooting for 20 percent after fees. assuming 25 percent down for investment and wanting 20 percent off of that. shooting for 5 percent total gain after 6 to 8 percent transaction cost meaning 11 percent gain total will land him, for example on a 600k home with 150k.. 30k ….hmm not smat either.. either way bad wager.

    btw it doesnt matter if its a specific prop or not. ur prop is not unique. unless u bought ur unit at a significant discount, which u probablydidnt with the 6percent over asking, ur props gonna follow the flow of the market and most of the markets if not all in seattle region look bleek at best. u got lucky with the last property, i did and a lot of ppl did too but u sound way too cocky for ur own good. time will tell.

  229. 979
    steven says:

    btw considering ur capitalization rte will be low due to interest rate and rent ever appreciating hoa/prop tax, u will need at least 13percent price hike to make the 20 percent gain on ur investment. good luck with that.

  230. 980
    OA says:

    RE: Coconut @ 971

    I think it’s pretty foolish to say it’s a terrible investment without at a minimum knowing the specific house bought, location, the price paid, and the upgrades to be done/needed.

    Yes the market has cooled the past year, but that doesn’t mean one can’t make good money on RE anymore. You just have to know what you’re doing, and be able to pull the trigger when others are hesitant. Of course there’s always risk. I’m a permabear myself.

  231. 981
    OA says:

    RE: steven @ 981

    it’s all about finding a really good deal, which takes plenty of homework and looking. I’m not a flipper but have a close relative that has flipped 2 homes in the last 12 months in south king county and has made really good money on it. He’s been doing this for the past 20 years (on and off). There are years when he’ll do multiple flips and there are years where he doesn’t do anything, but is always looking for a deal.

  232. 982
    steven says:

    of course, above comments were under the assumption that u were speculating. if you were a developer i dont think ur position is much better. most of the 1m+ are taking longer time to sell already and most r expecting steeper declines for luxury division. even if ur neighbor is #up and coming# and you bought a 30 year old shack there, theres a good chance that neighbor as a whole will take a dive and the up and coming will never come

  233. 983
    steven says:

    RE: OA @ 981

    uhhh he just commented he had multiple buyers and he ended up paying 6 percent over. yes you can have a good deal when the market is bad with no competition. from information provided its highly unlikely he had such a good deal that would compensate for the downturn and still profit as much as he thinks he would without significant market reversal

  234. 984
    ess says:

    By OA @ 980:

    RE: Coconut @ 971

    I think it’s pretty foolish to say it’s a terrible investment without at a minimum knowing the specific house bought, location, the price paid, and the upgrades to be done/needed.

    Yes the market has cooled the past year, but that doesn’t mean one can’t make good money on RE anymore. You just have to know what you’re doing, and be able to pull the trigger when others are hesitant. Of course there’s always risk. I’m a permabear myself.

    A very astute observation OA, which demonstrates your understanding of not only the real estate market, but other investments where various factors such as the individual price and the ability to make improvements transforms a purchase into a good deal what may be considered a lousy market. My first deal was in the great Boeing decline of the 70s, and everyone thought we were nuts.
    I too believe that the Puget Sound market is taking a breather, but as far as real estate goes in the current market, I would not label myself a permabear (which of course indicates a degree of permanency), but a temporary timeout bear. The real estate market will continue its upward price trend- but when and how much is anyone’s guess. But my guess is sooner rather than later – taking into consideration inflation, wage growth, population growth, lack of skilled workers in the construction industry, new regulations and requirements for development, and limited supply of both real estate, especially in the smaller single family house arena. The problem is that for many – they may not know when the market has changed its trajectory until it has actually happened, as the doom and gloom overshadows reality. This has happened in past market declines, and will continue to do so in the future.

  235. 985
    ess says:

    RE: ess @ 984

    Hello “The Tim”

    Your website does not allow for corrections all the time by using the “click to edit”.. I was unable to remove the extra transform and add an extra sentence!

    Thank you

  236. 986
  237. 987

    RE: Matt P @ 956
    You Think Politics and RE Price Trends are Separate Issues

    LOL….you have me rolling on the ground in laughter….it takes $CASH$ from increased incomes, less taxes, tax cuts and refunds to buy RE. How else can ya save enough money in this high priced city?

    The Open Border Party (OBP) can’t hide from this RE impact or pretend it doesn’t matter so they can insert their partisan politics in stealth from inaction anyway….they hate the truth being presented EQUAL on both partisan views? I allege the opposite is true. Think about it. I want to hear both sides. I read the OBP slanted posts and learn from them, but I also check their data for accuracy and find many errors.

    I have much blogger support on this site and some probably disagree with me too….so what? if you beg to differ, explain why, in detail too…or you have no case. Its that simple. That’s the real America I know, I hope it hasn’t changed.

  238. 988

    RE: softwarengineer @ 987
    Sorry Matt

    You were referencing other bloggers….so the comment above may not apply to you…

  239. 989
    JWoods says:

    RE: ess @ 984
    Well said.
    We live in the epic center of technology here in Seattle area, while we have companies and compensation which rival Silicon Valley, the housing price is only 1/2 – 2/3 of SV price. Market will go up and down, but folks who don’t own real estate here will miss the huge wealth creation happening right here.

  240. 990
    Brian says:

    By ess @ 985:

    RE: ess @ 984

    Hello “The Tim”

    Your website does not allow for corrections all the time by using the “click to edit”.. I was unable to remove the extra transform and add an extra sentence!

    Thank you

    I found the site is allowing edits but it takes a while before you see the edits live.

  241. 991
    JWoods says:

    Talking about wage growth and employment growth. I’ve seen new graduates getting $150K or more in tech, with tens of thousand such job openings here, it’s staggering.

  242. 992
    ess says:

    By Brian @ 990:

    By ess @ 985:

    RE: ess @ 984

    Hello “The Tim”

    Your website does not allow for corrections all the time by using the “click to edit”.. I was unable to remove the extra transform and add an extra sentence!

    Thank you

    I found the site is allowing edits but it takes a while before you see the edits live.

    Yes, this is true in some cases as in the above – but in longer comments it doesn’t allow me to do it. My longer comments – a hangover from a prior profession where verbose is the norm.
    Thanks for the update info!

  243. 993
    Patrick says:

    Did Seattle MLS not release February results? Looks like they released data about pricing, but seems different than their usual data release.

  244. 994

    RE: steven @ 967
    Good Job Steven

    I’d say ya timed it “about” perfect to buy and sell [I think 2017 was the peak where I live to sell, listings went to zero in my HOA in 2018 because the new modulars are cheaper than mine at 30 years used and the bank loans are uncertain and risky]; sounds like ya got great savvy parents to teach you the ropes too.

    Great success story….but its 2019 now and things have changed IMO lately…..there is more demand for your methods before signing the escrow, perhaps its the recent “strike” potential and qualified buyers have against Seattle. Buyers must be informed to optimize their investment or retirement plans…I got this change from reading the Bubblehead blog comments lately too…

    I wish I’d grabbed up with $CASH$ the $99K short sale [almost a repo] a couple units from me in 2016/2017….a year later it listed at $288K…I could have sold it to “we buy ugly houses” for a tidy instant $CASH$ profit too [without putting any money into it]. It takes savvy knowledge and timing to grab up the the easy $CASH$ deals in Seattle…Erik is better at this than I am. But even Erik is just sitting in one of his condo investments, waiting for “the best time to sell”…he knows…LOL

  245. 995

    RE: JWoods @ 991
    Data Sites Please on Top 10% Household Incomes [$100K+ per capita Incomes] Going to Inexperienced College Graduates?

    You make it sound like the top 10% household incomes needs no job experience, just college….LOL, what a joke. Ask any human relations expert on “professional” tech hiring and you’ll get them rolling on the ground in laughter too…you need job experience [like 5-10 years] to be a journey level employee. Period.

    Try like $20/hr for green grads…

  246. 996
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: OA @ 980

    Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa captain voice of reason. This website is for people to yell their deeply held beliefs not say things like, “I think it’s pretty foolish to say it’s a terrible investment without at a minimum knowing the specific house bought, location, the price paid, and the upgrades to be done/needed.”

    Don’t let facts get in the way of your world view, man.

  247. 997

    RE: Brian @ 977

    The listing you pointed out is in Kirkland where 66.6% of the current pendings of property listed for $1M or less (which that property was) went pending in a week or less in 98033 and 58% of the current pendings went pending in less than a week in 98034. I wouldn’t call that “a rarity”. Still more than half.

    The reason I asked is I thought you were pointing out the faster ones of 1 to 4 days of which there are many more than usual with fewer not looking at offers until a further out review date.

    Fast sales are not a rarity nor are straight to pending with no inspection contingency. Of the 10 Pending Inspection listed at under a million in 98034 where that property is, 7 went under contract in a week or less. 70%.

    And I’m including condos in there.

    Not a rarity. Let’s be careful of spreading misinformation. Be real, yes. But let’s not make stuff up based on some rants that have altered perception. Let’s stick to the facts.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. They are hand calculated in real time by Ardell.)

  248. 998
    JWoods says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 994
    Are you really a software engineer? You should know the market.
    The average base pay for a new graduate software engineer is $100k in the region, according to Glassdoor, adding bonus and stocks it’s not surprising to see $150k total package.

  249. 999
    northender says:

    RE: Justme @ 966
    34% of new listings going pending within 2 weeks does not sound like a lousy uptake of product to me! Or like any indication of a buyers strike…

  250. 1000

    This Recent $500M College Admissions Scandal is Just the Tip of the Iceberg

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/exclusive-paper-mill-owner-details-lucrative-academic-fraud-business-212740344.html

    The Open Border Party (OBP) kept quiet about this horrifying mess 10 years ago…its been a massive ethics problem in America since Bush and the Open Border Party (OBP) took control. My gosh, they have the guts to call this legal business as usual? They must be on opioids….LOL

    Colleges have become the Swamp….LOL

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