Cheapest parts of King County still make up the largest share of sales, even as prices there grow the most

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It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end regions.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

  • low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
  • mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
  • high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

  • low end: $379,000-$593,750
  • mid range: $615,000-$1,090,000
  • high end: $814,037-$2,586,183

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area

The last few years have each followed a similar pattern: while sales in the mid-range regions maintain a fairly steady share of sales in the county each month, sales in the cheaper parts of the county (South King) surge in the winter and dip in the summer, with sales in the most expensive parts (Eastside) doing the opposite. Except for a big spike in Seattle in February, so far we’re seeing the same pattern this year.

The raw number of sales in all three tiers increased between February and March. Month-over-month sales were up 35 percent in the low tier, up six percent in the middle tier, and up 42 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased five percent in the low tier, fell seven percent in the middle tier, and dropped four percent in the high tier.

As of March 2019, 37.9 percent of sales were in the low end regions (basically flat from 37.8 percent a year ago), 32.0 percent in the mid range (down slightly from 32.6 percent a year ago), and 30.1 percent in the high end (up from 29.6 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area since 2000

During the housing bubble that burst in 2008, South King consistently had the largest share of sales. We’ve seen the same thing over the last few years as prices have once again grown to astronomical levels. In the lead-up to the big 2008 bust, sales in South King fell as sales in Seattle gained ground. February’s spike in Seattle’s sales share could be a portent of a similar pattern, or it could just be a blip. We’ll see over the next few months.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Median Price of Single Family Homes Sold

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but only the low tier is currently at an all-time record high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose three percent, the middle tier increased eight percent, and the high tier gained nine percent.

Eighteen of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in March had a higher median price than a year ago, while 23 had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 5.2 percent, middle tier: up 0.1 percent, high tier: down 4.7 percent.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

282 comments:

  1. 1
    Eastsider says:

    The gains in lowest tier may be entirely due to lower mortgage interest rates. It would be interesting to look at its share of defaults, including modifications and short sales, in the last housing crash. I suspect its share was noticeably higher and the next downturn will not be any different.

  2. 2
    Brian says:

    Can confirm, as a buyer looking in the low tier SFH on the eastside, the market is very competitive. Saw a couple places go pending within a day, before I even had a chance to consider an offer. I guess that’s the downside to not having an offer review date…

  3. 3
    steven says:

    that explains the spike in median for feb. that’s the only abnormal month where mid-tier housing surpassed the low tier housing sales by far.

  4. 4
    kenmorem says:

    more clear evidence of the BUYER’S STRIKE! /sarc

  5. 5
    Justme says:

    Tim is painting a pretty complex with this data, using measures such as median-of-median and regional-percentage-of-total. I’m not quite sure yet what deeper understanding is in this data.

    But I’ll say one thing: Give that the data does not talk about product absorption rate at all, making claims that somehow the buyer strike is off seems particularly wrong.

  6. 6
    MaybeBuyer says:

    From what I have seen in the lower tier, agents are pricing houses low, adding an offer review date, and the buyers are swarming. I believe the reduced mortgage rates are fueling this and they don’t seem to be going any higher any time soon.

  7. 7
    WSeaGuy says:

    As a momentary attempted buyer who put an offer on an under-priced house a few weeks back and came in 4th of 5, I can confirm the swarming. After that experience, we went back on strike and secured a 1-year lease. Maybe next year things will be more to our liking.

  8. 8
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 5
    We already saw in the NWMLS post that there are 2800+ strikebreakers with pending deals. That’s a very respectable number of March buyers when you look at the history.

    Did you notice the posts here from Brian and MaybeBuyer? It seems they are experiencing more of a buyer swarm than a buyer strike. I don’t want to say the buyer swarm is working, but prices have been moving up again the last couple of months.

  9. 9
    sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 5 – The last of the lemmings, becoming FBs signing away their lives. It’s a race to the bottom.

  10. 10
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 7

    Out of curiosity why did you sign a 1 year lease instead of finding a month to month situation where you can buy a home when you find one that meets your criteria?

  11. 11
    ohd1122 says:

    Nothing yet surprising about this data…a lot of people are simply priced out of certain neighborhoods, so they look where they can afford. The demand is still there for homeownership. Will this level of demand at current prices sustain for the next 2-3 years? Someone smarter than me should opine.

    Disclosure: We rent. Now is not the right time to buy for us, but someday soon it could be.

  12. 12
    Michal says:

    The data in this post is in direct conflict with the NWMLS breakouts. According to NWMLS breakouts, the Eastside single family median is up 2.59% YoY from $926K in March 2018 to $950K in 2019. Tim – you should take a look at that and figure out why. I suspect that the median of medians is the issue. And if you look at individual Eastside MLS areas, all but one have a YoY increase.

  13. 13
    WSeaGuy says:

    By randomseattledummie @ 10:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 7

    Out of curiosity why did you sign a 1 year lease instead of finding a month to month situation where you can buy a home when you find one that meets your criteria?

    Because we didn’t like the feel of the frenzy. Seemed directly contradictory to the likelihood prices are trending downward. Any movement up right now feels like a sucker rally and we didn’t want to be the suckers. Also the rent we secured was about $1000/mo less than our total monthly payment would be for a comparable house if we bought in this neighborhood, so it just seemed to make better sense until prices are sane again.

  14. 14

    RE: Michal @ 12

    I think people need to post their definition of “The Eastside”. Area 600 in Tim’s data is HUGE and includes a lot of places I would never be in when working with buyers and sellers on “The Eastside”.

    I do it by Zip Code and not mls area. Sometimes I do it by School District. Lake Washington, Bellevue and Issaquah school districts are all “The Eastside”. An argument can be made for a couple of others. But all of area 600 is not cohesive in any way, shape or form. They should have done away with “area” a long time ago. It doesn’t translate well for consumers who need data.

  15. 15
    patrick weber says:

    Is it legal to offer a “Buyer Agent Bonus”?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/516-NE-145th-St-98155/home/87633

  16. 16
    BacktoBasics says:

    High price will push potential buyer to the low end. People couldn’t afford a Ford Taurus are starting look Ford Escort. The problem is, an loaded Escort are not much cheaper than barebone Taurus: Either very far from city center and in a high crime area.

  17. 17

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 16

    More often a three bedroom townhouse in the closer in and better area when they have children. Most wont travel out of a good school district to get a house vs townhouse, in my experience. They might be in Bothell in a house vs Kirkland in a house, but the ones that go far out for a house vs a townhouse often don’t have children. Such was one of my recent clients who works in Kirkland but bought in Renton.

    Since not too many people want a big lot anymore, many are happy with a three bedroom townhome, especially if they can find one with three bedrooms up like they have often in Redmond. There are a few elsewhere, but the more reasonably priced ones are often in Redmond or 98006 Bellevue. Kirkland has never been a huge fan of affordable townhome style dwellings, so we don’t have as many here and rarely with three bedrooms vs two. Not a large supply ever. Redmond has the most and more people will buy one of those than go far out to have a house. Maybe Duvall to get a house.

    A lot of people went into Sultan and Lake Stevens back in the last bubble and were sorry they did when the gas prices skyrocketed. I don’t see people doing that as much these days though Snoqualmie Ridge has gotten a lot more popular in the last few years. Not “cheap” but cheaper than closer in.

  18. 18
    S-Crow says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13 – You mentioned:

    ‘Also the rent we secured was about $1000/mo less than our total monthly payment would be for a comparable house if we bought in this neighborhood, so it just seemed to make better sense until prices are sane again.’

    Smart decision and analysis.

  19. 19
    N says:

    @Ardell 17 – Good points. As a family open to town homes I concur, and will also add that at least in the areas we are interested in (West Seattle/Beacon hill) the majority of the town homes are 2 bedroom and under 1,200 sq ft. Very few 3 bed, 1,500 ft units around here.

    Gas prices being ~50% higher than much of the country makes the long commute for a little more house less enticing for sure when you add in not only time lost but the cost of transportation.

  20. 20
    N says:

    @WSeaGuy 13 – We’ve come to the same conclusion to this point. But I can see how one would decide otherwise when you consider a 700k mortgage means ~1k a month would go towards principle. Of course you have home repairs and other costs to factor in as well.

    Often times the rent vs mortgage gap we see today doesn’t stick in the long run…means either home prices come down or rents go up. Doesn’t appear rents will be trending up anytime soon.

  21. 21
    richard says:

    RE: N @ 20 – my view on rent and house price dynamic in our extreme market.
    – when house price goes up like crazy. buyer feels house price is too high and he decide to rent and he soon find there are many others think like him. so they in turn compete for rent so rent goes up. When rents continue to goes up to a certain point, renter feel maybe it is better to buy a house and he goes back to the house market and he soon find there many think like him, then they bid up the house prices. This vicious cycle is what those non-bubble heads hope for. in short, it is buyer chases house or rental.
    – when house price goes down significantly. the renter feel buying is more attractive so they decided to buy. and then rental market start to cool down and rent is reduced to attractive renter. So the housing and rental compete to attract buyer or renter. It is house and rental chase buyer or renter.
    It could happen because our market is extreme and by no means normal.

  22. 22
    richard says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13 – I am currently renting a house at $2350/month. The landlord bought the house last year at 740K. The ratio is 740K/2350*12months=26.
    Someone mentioned in some previous blog says for rental properties the ratio should be around 7 for good return. So for me, 2350K is definitely not cheap. But from landlord point of view, it does not make sense either. It is weird and it seems it is a lose-lose situation for both renter and landlord due to this highly distorted market.

  23. 23
    steven says:

    RE: richard @ 22

    oh in any third person’s perspective, you are clearly the winner (except for maybe some people here) . Assuming 4% interest, the cost to own that house alone is 3083 dollars per month , (interest and prop tax only, no hoa or principal or maintenance). I don’t know what kind of picture you want where odds are in favor of the renter, but you’re clearly the winner here numberwise. If you can’t afford it, that’s a different matter of you being at a place you shouldn’t be

  24. 24
    Justme says:

    Over the last several weeks I have been collecting data on Wednesday evenings and Saturday mornings, to see how many new listings arrived in the last week, and how many pendings existed that had been on the market less than 1,2,3 weeks. Here is a snapshot of the last 4 weeks of new listings, and the pendings with less than 1-2-3 weeks on the market, as of Wednesday, for King County.


    1wk new____inventory: 0844 = 0585 + 0126 + 0133 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    2wk new____inventory: 1612 = 1137 + 0211 + 0264 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    3wk new____inventory: 2449 = 1723 + 0307 + 0419 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    4wk new____inventory: 3255 = 2263 + 0431 + 0561 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    1wk rolling pendings: 0207 = 0173 + 0000 + 0034 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    2wk rolling pendings: 0689 = 0522 + 0069 + 0098 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    3wk rolling pendings: 1169 = 0900 + 0107 + 0162 (SFH,townhouse,condo)

    If you look at the 3wk numbers (I may have 4wk numbers on Saturday), the uptake measured as new pendings relative to new inventory is low, with SFH at 52% and well under 50% for other categories of property. Buyer strike, definitely. And the buyers who are getting an offer accepted, well, they are taking their time negotiating.

    Keep on striking, comrades. After the spring “quality bump”, expect median to keep dropping.

  25. 25
    Realistic says:

    By richard @ 22:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13 – I am currently renting a house at $2350/month. The landlord bought the house last year at 740K. The ratio is 740K/2350*12months=26.
    Someone mentioned in some previous blog says for rental properties the ratio should be around 7 for good return. So for me, 2350K is definitely not cheap. But from landlord point of view, it does not make sense either. It is weird and it seems it is a lose-lose situation for both renter and landlord due to this highly distorted market.

    It looks like your landlord has a substantial negative cashflow and a cap rate under 2.3%. He was probably betting on appreciation which may be a big mistake in the current market.

    For a house with a market value of $740k I assume the property tax is ~$6/yr, home insurance $1k/yr, basic maintenance $1.5k/yr and mortgage $3/mo. All would total to approx. $3700/mo assuming $100k down which is an extra $300/mo in the opportunity cost so ~$4k/mo. Even if you consider that out of this about $1k/mo goes towards principal, the landlord is still losing over $600 per month + opportunity cost on freezing the monthly principal. He is basically paying you to live there.

  26. 26
    WSeaGuy says:

    By N @ 20:

    @WSeaGuy 13 – We’ve come to the same conclusion to this point. But I can see how one would decide otherwise when you consider a 700k mortgage means ~1k a month would go towards principle. Of course you have home repairs and other costs to factor in as well.

    Not to mention the fact that if home values are dropping even at a relatively mild rate of 0.5% or so, then you’re losing the equity basically as quickly as you’re paying off principal.

  27. 27
    N says:

    @WSeaGuy 26 – Or you could flip it around and say in the long run your keeping up with inflation at a minimum as a home owner or simply falling further and further behind as a renter.

    Do you move your 401k to all cash every month the market is down? At some point most of us want to buy and real estate, especially in Seattle has a darn good record, it’s just a matter of having a cash flow situation that makes sense and quite frankly seeing prices on many houses double and triple over the past 7 years certainly makes you think twice but a decade from now these prices may look pretty good.

  28. 28
    richard says:

    RE: Realistic @ 25RE: Realistic @ 25 – thanks it definitely make me feel a little better as a renter. I feel my landlord is very confident of his real estate investment philosophy. It is definitely a highly polarized world in real estate investing. I view myself an value buyer but unfortunately there is nothing to buy right now. I guess I will stuck as a renter for a year or two to see how things turn out. On the eastside there are tons of newly built small apt units coming and hopefully it will suppress the rental market for a little while.

  29. 29
    uwp says:

    By Realistic @ 25:

    For a house with a market value of $740k I assume the property tax is ~$6/yr, home insurance $1k/yr, basic maintenance $1.5k/yr and mortgage $3/mo. All would total to approx. $3700/mo assuming $100k down which is an extra $300/mo in the opportunity cost so ~$4k/mo. Even if you consider that out of this about $1k/mo goes towards principal, the landlord is still losing over $600 per month + opportunity cost on freezing the monthly principal. He is basically paying you to live there.

    Try plugging those numbers in the NYT Buy/Rent Calculator: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html
    You might be surprised what you find.

    This is not a good market for buying rentals, but if you plan to buy a home and live there for 7+ years, the numbers are still OK.

    (And quite nice if you think there is any chance at >3% appreciation.)

  30. 30
    kenmorem says:

    if anyone thinks it’ll pencil out to buy vs rent by using cap rates and comparing it to VTSAX or similar, you can stop. the days where that discussion made sense in seattle is long gone. it will always pencil to rent here vs buying. just don’t bitch when rents keep going up because that’s part of capitalism.

  31. 31
    Erik says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13
    Everyone on here was saying that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and now in 2019. Everyone called me an idiot and a bubble pusher. You may be right this time, but I doubt it. You’ll most likely be hitting yourself later for not buying when prices were low in 2019.

  32. 32
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 27
    How are you getting positive cash flow in Seattle? Please share your secret.

  33. 33
    WSeaGuy says:

    By Erik @ 31:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13
    Everyone on here was saying that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and now in 2019. Everyone called me an idiot and a bubble pusher. You may be right this time, but I doubt it. You’ll most likely be hitting yourself later for not buying when prices were low in 2019.

    That could be true… but it seems highly unlikely to me that’ll be the case with signs of a recession looming and in light of the number of houses I’ve seen cutting prices and still not selling at prices that would’ve been scooped up instantaneously a year ago. What we seem to have is a glut of houses at “tech bro” prices, a dearth of houses at “working class” prices, at a time when there are more of the latter buyers and fewer buyers in the former camp.

    Now I’ll agree that in a year that’ll probably be true, even if prices are only slightly below where they are now (I am betting they’ll be more than slightly below, though). If prices are up YOY next summer, I’ll buy you an overpriced latte, how’s that sound?

  34. 34
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 33 – I would also add that even tech bros are struggling to afford current prices. When you factor in long-term planning, like saving for children and retirement, it doesn’t make sense. A $900k money-pit leaves no room for saving for a future. You don’t have to know how to code to figure that out.

  35. 35
    hahali says:

    It will rain tomorrow.
    It will rain tomorrow.
    It will rain tomorrow.
    It will rain tomorrow.
    It will rain tomorrow.
    Rain….
    U should have listen to me
    Last year is just same as 2016
    Beware. 10ARM is 3.25% now.

  36. 36
    towelie says:

    Totally anecdotal, but I’m seeing quite a few more houses priced in the “what are you smoking/what is going on” category lately – as in, they are priced WAY too high or are new constructions in strange locations with very curious price histories and are sitting on the market for a while.

    Here’s some examples:

    #1 – Sold in 2010 for $350k, Sold in 2016 for $537k, Sold in 2018 for $600k, Listed in 2019 for $620k, now re-listed at $618k. A double flip? A moron desperate to get their money back after buying less than a year ago?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/7503-5th-Ave-NE-98115/home/307392#property-history

    #2 Listed for $1.3M last year, now listed again for $1.2M, just off 85th between I5 and 99. It’s a nice house, but when you’re 25% over the zillow estimate after cutting the price by $100k, something seems off. $1.0M seems like the reasonable starting point and even that is probably a tad high, given the location. I know the zillow estimates aren’t perfect, but most houses seem to be going for below those estimates right now, not above – let alone significantly above.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8814-Burke-Ave-N-Seattle-WA-98103/48839390_zpid/

    #3 Listed for $1.3M in February, now price cut to $1.2M. A block from highway 99 at 92nd – right in the heart of Licton Springs “shit hole country” and they have the nerve to call it “north Ballard” in the listing and try to claim it can accommodate 18 people. Why would I want to deal with an agent that starts off with these kind of obvious BS ploys in their listing?

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/920-N-92nd-St-Seattle-WA-98103/48967605_zpid/

    #4 Originally listed for the eye-watering amount of $1.65M. Brand new house, but right next to I5 at 78th on a strange triangular plot of land with busy roads on either side. Sat on the market for close to six months and sold for $1.17M. Did the developer make money on this one (lot was empty previously)?

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7802-Banner-Way-NE-Seattle-WA-98115/96676122_zpid/

    #5 Listed for $1M, basically lot only and implying the house is a tear down. Been on the market for nearly 5 months. I guess two houses off of Market St is a good location to some?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5003-2nd-Ave-NW-98107/home/298549

    #6 My favorite. Right next to Northgate Mall and directly adjacent to an apartment complex and its parking lot. Originally listed for nearly $1M, now down to $900k. I mean, I could see that price if it were a few more blocks south and closer to the heart of Maple Leaf, but come on.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/525-NE-100th-St-Seattle-WA-98125/48946924_zpid/

    An aside: As someone who would like to buy a house with a garage, why do they NEVER take photos of the garage? I don’t care that it isn’t painted or has no drywall, it’s a garage – I just want to get an idea of it’s size and what it could be used for. But yeah, fill that listing up with areal shots of Green Lake or views of Seattle you can only get with a drone.

  37. 37

    RE: patrick weber @ 15

    Yes. They are not usually in the public comments like that. There is no “standard” fee, so they could just as easily increased the % offered to buyer agents. The % offered to buyer agents is not usually sign in the public display. They can offer 1% less or 1% more than the non-standard amount :), which is basically what that one is.

    Why would you think it was illegal? If the buyer has an agreement with their agent for a different amount, then the buyer gets it. If the amount the buyer is getting is in excess of their closing costs, then it is usually used to reduce the price.

    They are more common in weaker markets and always have been legal. It is illegal to pay that same amount to an unlicensed person for finding a buyer for the property. But as long as it is offered to a licensed agent it can be higher or lower and stated as a dollar amount or a % or as in this case a % plus dollar amount.

    I don’t think there is any legal limit of what a seller can decide to pay their agent or any agent in the transaction.

  38. 38
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: patrick weber @ 15

    A couple things. Agents involved in dirt transactions often ask for higher commissions. If they get them is a different story. I had an agent ask me for 10% and I hung up on him.

    The other thing is that agent typically is just FSBO offering their “services” to let the general public use the MLS for a small fee. That is just some randomshorelinedummie seller saying that in the marketing remarks.

  39. 39

    RE: S-Crow @ 18 – I agree with much of what you say, but you always seem
    down on the market. It seems we’re at the top now so it’s easy. Have you ever been bullish on the market here? Could someone have bought a house in 2012 and be way ahead now? Do you have skin in the game?

  40. 40

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 36

    10% is the long standing fee for dirt in many places, but usually places where dirt is cheap and much less than the price of houses. Here the agent usually handles the tear down lot or any builder lot for free in exchange for listing what the builder puts on it when it is finished. Often they find that lot off market as they are also “scouts”. Zero payment on the dirt sale and they get to list any number of houses put on it, even if they are many.

    This was true in other areas where I have worked as well, so it’s not just a local custom…same with the 10% thing…in many States that is true if the buyer is not a builder.

  41. 41
    Erik says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 33
    Okay, don’t flake out on me in a year when you owe me a latte.

    It appears our current president really knows how to spur the economy, so it seems prices should keep going up. On the other hand, we are far into the expansion phase and we are due for a recession.

  42. 42
    Realistic says:

    By uwp @ 29:

    Try plugging those numbers in the NYT Buy/Rent Calculator: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html
    (…)

    Wow, this is a really great tool. Thanks for the link!

  43. 43
    S-Crow says:

    RE: MIKAL JOHNSON @ 39 – Thanks for the comment.

    I’m bullish on Puget Sound real estate….. for the long game.

    I’m in the Escrow business which heavily influences my perspective of the market. I’m in the trenches daily — doing sale and refinance transaction work . In escrow we see it all. When the market tanked that in of itself wasn’t surprising to me but the toll it took on people impacted me forever. When I see unsustainable increases in housing prices along with the financing and debt levels of people to stretch to make it happen it sort of hit’s my radar. You know…the proverbial Love Letters to sellers and offering rediculous amounts over suggested retail to “win.”

    I work in a debt driven industry and I’m personally debt load adverse. That does not mean I sit across from a client who has already made a buying or selling decision and tell them not to sell or buy. That ship sailed.

    Do I have skin in the game? Yup. And to pre-empt the potential for nasty emails to me, I’m not anti flipper. I’m anti flipping with no plan when markets shift but too many people are led into the flip/reno business by cons who are only interested in you taking all the risk or to make fees off you. People don’t want to hear of the losses that are underway right now (is it widespread, no. Is it building, yes.) I’ve been sounding the alarm for a while.

    This blog was started by The Tim. It’s mission is to provide as much unbiased real estate information as possible so that the public can make the best decision when it comes time to consider buying or selling. With a bit of humor and sarcastic tongue-in-cheek commentary when required.

    If people purchased in 2012 they currently have equity on paper if they have not used their home ATM machine. One of the things that is destructive is cash back refi’s to tap into that equity and instead of having a plan of reducing their debt load they shift all ltheir consumer debt onto their home. If they have a financial hardship, they are a walk-away or foreclosure waiting to happen.

  44. 44
  45. 45
    ess says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 43

    Due to a host of factors including economic and emotional expectations, single family houses that were once viewed as places to reside and raise a family have been transformed into oversized ego driven showcases that are more albatross than residences.

    Not only has the land become prohibitively expensive due to a variety of factors which drive the price of single family residences, but the houses have become increasingly oversized and laden with expensive fixtures. These days, one MUST have walk in closets that are larger than bedrooms, numerous bathrooms with spa like features, oversized chef kitchens with granite counters, double ovens, expensive top of the line appliances for individuals that rarely do their own cooking, and a host of other expensive fixtures that drive the price higher and higher.

    For many individuals and families, especially those starting out, but really for many, what is needed is a local variation of a Levitown housing situation. Small basic houses, modestly priced, easy to maintain and less expensive to repair. Houses that not only allow individuals and families to maintain their residences at an affordable price, but also allow them to save and make other investments. One thousand to fifteen hundred square feet with one or two bathrooms, formica (gasp – the horror) counter tops, one oven and regular appliances is more than adequate for most people. Unfortunately, due to a host of circumstances, those days are over.

  46. 46
    patrick weber says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 37

    Hey Ardell,

    Thanks for the explainer.

    The reason I question the legality of that bonus is because it seems to me another example of incentivizing an agent to act with ulterior interest to their client. If I’m buying a lot and an agent shows me this one over other similar lots it’d be hard not to think that the agent motivation is to make the most money first, act in the best interest of the client later.

    Random Seattle Dummie: That makes a lot of sense, I wondered if it wasn’t a less professional listing agent of some sort that doesn’t know to leave buyer agent incentives not explicitly stated.

    I think everything below is a beaten dead horse, but I typed it and so I’m posting it :/

    Here’s an analogy: A PE investor is buying into an industry they were not an expert in, hiring a consultant, and then the consultant being rewarded by the industry for finding the best investment available for the investor but on selling at the highest price possible. The PE investor if they caught wind of that would be wise to fire their consultant and pay one to act in the investors best interest. Nothing illegal yet I suppose, although the bribe offering is shady. I understand that what would definitely be illegal is if that industry came together and refused to work with consultant/agents that didn’t get paid by them and didn’t have personal incentive to maintain high prices.

    Seems a like a cartel.

  47. 47

    RE: Realistic @ 25
    And Your Honest Evaluation Excludes Lost Rent When Its Vacated or Being Remodeled

    Cha-ching….Cha-ching goes the landlord’s $CASH$…

  48. 48

    RE: ess @ 45
    God Forbid We Do That

    We want ’em all $600K+ barn sized/built “giant energy eaters for Climate Change” in cheap SE King County, we don’t want price competition with smaller “energy efficient” homes.

  49. 49

    The Seattle Area is So Lucky Not to Have a State Income Tax Too

    The trouble is, its a moot point anyway:

    https://news.yahoo.com/taxes-best-and-worst-states-125830381.html

    After paying my $300 car tabs last week, this area taxes us to death with property taxes, etc, etc…

    https://news.yahoo.com/taxes-best-and-worst-states-125830381.html

    We’re taxed “significantly” worse than state income tax states like California and Oregon, HORRIFYING! I blame the endless school OVERPOPULATION immigration costs [approx $10K/Yr/student with more sewage drainage costs planned for immigration OVERPOPULATION into Puget Sound killing off the Orcas] and immigration OVERPOPULATION medical costs ACA “Medicaid for all” [estimate, as big as you can imagine] put on our State Budget against the disabled, retired and elderly…Hades, support for “legal citizen” homelessness and severely disabled folks in Seattle area has been slashed approx 50% too…

    But the $3-4K/mo rent is cheap compared to buying [from the blogs above]…LOL…a lot of us are simply brainwashed into destroying the Seattle ecology with immigration OVERPOPULATION unbreathable smoke pollution and dead Orcas. But be sure to recycle…..LOL….we’ve gone mad?

  50. 50
    Realistic says:

    RE: Justme @ 24
    Analyzing your inventory charts, one thing that puzzles me is that in 2018 the inventory between April – June was only slightly higher than 2017 in the same period, but it had a significant cooling effect on the housing market. The consensus is that March was the peak and it went downhill from there quite rapidly. I know because I was trying to sell my townhouse in June in a great location on the eastside and it was very challenging.

    This year the inventory is WAY higher than the same period last year, and it climbs at an even higher rate too, so one would expect it would have a really big impact on prices but I don’t think that’s the case. This spring I saw 2 homes in my area go pending at a similar price as March of 2018. Are we not overestimating the significance of the inventory increase?

  51. 51

    RE: S-Crow @ 43
    Yes S-Crow

    You need to start a college class on surviving without debt.

    The news is bubbling with new information today:

    https://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Trump-considered-dumping-migrants-in-Democratic-13762278.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headlines&utm_campaign=sfg_topothebay

    It would be last straw for Seattle Sanctuary City if this was hypothetically done…imagine 10-50K/mo extra illegal aliens dumped on our already over-taxed, over-sewage drainage [dead Orcas], with unbreathable smoke pollution Seattle area [OVERPOPULATION makes Climate Change ecological damages in Seattle look like a joke in comparison]….even Pelosi condemns Trump for this “send ’em to the sanctuary states suggestion”, calling it “cruel and inhumane”. But its OK if the southern border is stuck with hoards of unwanted mooches pouring in because foreign bent courts make it illegal for them to wait for asylum in Mexico now [Trump’s appealing this BTW, so there’s hope for Seattle Real Estate [but it ain’t coming from our AG or Governor for that matter]? Have these Open Border Party (OBP) politicians lost their minds on immediate/important environmental planning?

    But be sure to recycle….LOL

  52. 52
    uwp says:

    By Realistic @ 49:

    RE: Justme @ 24 – Are we not overestimating the significance of the inventory increase?

    This is not a question to pose to Justme.

  53. 53
    WSeaGuy says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 50 – Ah yeah you know what these comments needed? Some off-topic anti-immigrant near-fascist rhetoric. 🙄

    I hope the income tax prohibition gets thrown out by the state supreme court so all you tax haven right-wingers sell your houses and head somewhere far away. Florida, maybe? Need to free up some housing for all the immigrants I’d gladly invite to our city in your place.

  54. 54

    RE: Realistic @ 49

    As I said to Deerhawke quite some time ago, this year’s Spring Bump takes us “up” to last year’s Spring Bump price. That has been the expectation all along.

    As long as people don’t expect to get more than they could have gotten if they listed in 2nd Quarter of 2018, there will be no drop in pricing for them. Flat.

    There are always some products that will sell for more or less than flat. But the overall thinking should be flat from before the drop. The 2018 and 2019 bump prices should be about the same and higher than 4th quarter 2018, same as we said back in July of 2018. No surprises here.

    Inventory didn’t increase causing the market to be weak. The market weakened due to interest rates going up 1%, which caused the increase in inventory, and now they are back down to about the same % as last year at this time.

    New homes are being counted at higher numbers than ever in the past due to listing presales in higher numbers than ever before in the past. Try stripping out anything built in 2018 or later or not built yet at all (presale homes) and see where the inventory and market is without that. Not because they don’t matter…but because if a builder has 40 lots and lists 3 as a sample of what he has, then listing all 40 is not an increase in inventory. It’s just a different method of stating the same thing that is causing it to LOOK like more inventory. If you go back to a time when builders didn’t list until the home was complete and ready to sell….it will look like higher inventory now that they are almost all listing them as presales vs waiting until they are complete and ready to sell.

    I usually split out new from used, but I’m not planning to run stats again until we get through the end of the 2nd quarter. Then we can do a comparison of first half of the year to first half of prior years and also the 12 month rolling basis from end of June. We do that around July 10 when most of the data should be posted.

    I expect 2019 to look a lot like 2018 as to YOY first half and higher than 2017.

    That does not mean anything is rosy as the coming 12 months is the critical phase for recession…or not. If the Republicans can support the 2020 election with a stronger economy and lower rates, they will. If the Democrats can find a way to throw the financial markets under a bus to gain control of the White House in 2020, they will.

    We just get to stand back and see who wins that fight. So far the Republicans are pulling it out of the nose dive from the 5% mortgage rate move on the chess board. But the fight will get nastier and nastier as we approach the 2020 election. Anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen to the financial markets in an election year is kidding themselves. It’s a nasty war and “the economy” good vs bad is part of the war and not mere happenstance.

  55. 55
    Realistic says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 54
    Thank you for a detailed answer. I just checked new construction on Redfin and you are right, it makes a huge chunk of the active inventory – approx. 27%. Differentiating used from new inventory levels sounds like the right approach. Do you have any charts or data on the size of used inventory at this time of the year in 2018 so we could compare?

    After what happened with the stock market last Dec I thought the recession or a major correction was just around the corner but it seems the market rallied back up. At this point many assets are already inflated to crazy levels after a decade long and steep rally. So, it is quite scary to buy a property now.

  56. 56
    LuLu says:

    By Erik @ 31:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 13
    Everyone on here was saying that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and now in 2019. Everyone called me an idiot and a bubble pusher. You may be right this time, but I doubt it. You’ll most likely be hitting yourself later for not buying when prices were low in 2019.

    Agree. When you look back, any time is a good buy. Are we passed 2007 peak? If not, you might refinanced to 2.5% 15 year mortgage, considering now we are are 3.5%. It’ sall about payment. Don’t expect to make a quick buck by flipping. Agent fee, tax. Live in it. You will say wow house is so dam cheap in 2019 and regret not buying. We only have so limited land and people are still moving into the city like Seattle.

  57. 57
    richard says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 54 – politics has nothing to do with our housing market. it is the economy condition and people’s psychology. so far buyer are oblivious to potential recession risk. They are still willing to pay overinflated price especially high tech millennials.
    Honestly nobody knows what’s going to happen in stock market in the next 6 months. You are right this spring “rebound” is the work of FED. At least now real estate people admit it is the low interest rate to keep this market inflated(not the inventory BS). I know this market is manipulated by FED the question is how long it can keep it float, forever or there is a limit.

  58. 58

    RE: Erik @ 41
    Yes Erik

    Trump has our backside protected. Recent Good news update today on the asylum hoard from Mexico being sent to Sanctuary Cities [like Seattle] to further tax burden us with tax mooches….he’s promised the Director of the Border Control a pardon for breaking the “wait in Mexico” before asylum litigation lower foreign bent court order. That could stop that bad court order before it hits federal appeals court and/or the Trump Supreme Court….and stop the hoards of mooches. Also, if the asylum hoards get put here by Trump and it hits our state/county tax budgets and they sue DHS for unlawful placement of asylum mooch hoards…he can pardon all them too ;-)

    Open Border party (OBP) Billionaire DNC donor Soros started the Sanctuary Cities policies from “gangland” Chicago BTW and billionaire Populist Trump is in the boxing ring with Soros to stop the anarchy it seems like….I bet they hate each other too. Good luck Soros, I wouldn’t pick a fight with Trump…LOL

    The fun goes on and on….it sure isn’t boring lately…have great day Erik…LOL

  59. 59

    RE: richard @ 57
    Have you looked at your Wash State Tax Bill and Real Estate Planning?

    Politics has everything to do with real estate planning….ask S-crow….LOL

  60. 60
    OA says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 17

    Hey Ardell,

    Do you do any business in the Fall City / Snoqualmie Ridge areas? The price per sq foot is pretty high there as well (not as high a Bellevue/Issaquah/Kirland but definitely up there).

    I’m curious on your take on what will potentially happen in the next 5-10 years real estate-wise specifically in these two areas. And how is Snoqualimie Valley school district perceived compared to the other school districts in the Eastside?

    Appreciate your thoughts and feedback.

  61. 61

    RE: OA @ 60

    Every time a client asks me about a house in Fall City – Tolt area I check which roads flood near it. Hard to get home through a flooded out road. I don’t say no to a client, I just send them links to the past flooding headlines. So far I haven’t sold one out that way.

    Did one in Carnation not in the Flood Zone and close to the Redmond border. but that was a special situation. The house and lot were too good and too cheap as a short sale to not help with that one. Worked out ridiculously well for that young man. Schools were not an issue. But now he doesn’t want to be so far away from life and will likely sell it. He’s been pondering it for almost a year now.

    If you could get the same house at the same price in Lake Washington School District or Issaquah School District would you go to Snoqualmie? To the best of my knowledge people are going there to get a newer house for less. Reminds me of the people that went to Monroe and Lake Stevens and Cougar Mountain during the last Bubble. They didn’t want to be there. They just wanted a new house. Now they are where they don’t want to be in a not so new house.

    Would you live in Preston? Or are you just chasing cheaper new housing? I think you pick the best where you want to be and then find what you can afford there. Nothing worse than living in the wrong where. If Snoqualmie is where you really want to live and you aren’t going there just to get a newer house, nothing wrong with that. But pick your best where before you pick a house.

    Better to rent in a place you love and really want to be and is convenient to work than to chase new homes wherever they may lead you. Better to live in a 3 bedroom condo in an area with great schools in a place you want to be, then to chase new single family homes wherever they may lead you.

    If you would not live there if you could get that same house at that same price closer in…don’t let the new house be the magnet pulling you there. New houses have to built where there is available land. The oldest houses are usually in the best places. Just how the development of land works.

    I’m skirting the question a bit for obvious reasons. This is a public forum. Hopefully that answers your question. If you wouldn’t live in Preston or North Bend 8 years ago, why Snoqualmie now? Maybe there’s a bus to Amazon from there…or a helicopter. There are some things I don’t know. Maybe there’s some special way to get to work from there these days that didn’t exist before.

  62. 62
    Erik says:

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 33
    If you really think we have a high probability of a recession next year, you aren’t looking at the facts.

  63. 63

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 61
    If Ya Need a Realtor

    Please hire Ardell, she doesn’t shoot from the hip.

  64. 64

    RE: WSeaGuy @ 53
    Do You Know the Definition of Fascism?

    Its government [like Sanctuary Cities] which forces its views on the voters without an election….sounds like the Open Border Party (OBP) illegal alien driven taxation in Seattle we’ve all grown to love?….LOL

    Who voted for open borders? Waldo in the striped shirt? Yes its Fascism.

  65. 65
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Erik @ 62

    What facts would those be?

  66. 66
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    The graphs compare 2017-2019 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year, a fact that was much ballyhooed by the sell-side and inflation-mongers of the property market. But the situation has changed radically, and the shoe is now on the other foot. Combine the increase in inventory with a much more realistic criterion that 1month worth of active inventory is all that is needed for a “balanced market”, the property market has shifted radically since March 2018 and continues to do so in 2019. Click the link and scroll to see the graphs. Click on each graph for an enlarged view. ESC and scroll to navigate.

    https://imgur.com/a/a4BJyLX

    2019-04-13 King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-04-13 King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-04-13 King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017
    2019-04-13 King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017

    Commentary: King County SFH inventory keeps growing, peaking at 3790 this week on Friday evening. Product sales are in no way keeping up with new listings arriving, and >4wk old listings are languishing on the market. March 2018 was the point in time when active for-sale inventory started pulling away from the year-before (2017) levels, indicating the start of the bubble bust. With 2019 in turn outpacing 2018, there is little doubt that the bubble-bust is in full swing. There are lots of sellers, but not enough willing buyers at the prices being offered. Many buyers are on strike, and refusing to buy at currently offered prices. Sellers have gone from “I think I’ll wait another year” to “Better get my house on the market before it is too late”. But many sellers are still over-pricing the market by a significant amount.

    I posted a product absorption/uptake analysis from Weds earlier in the week. Absorption of product continues to be low. (That’s why the inventory graphs look the way they do!).

  67. 67
    IssaquahResident says:

    Thanks Justme! Very clear increase in SFH inventory!

  68. 68
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 66

    As long as inventory keeps rising, there really is only one way for prices to go. Many of the houses being listed are empty. There’s a house in my neighborhood that has been empty for at least six months. I estimate the carrying costs on that house are about $4000 per month in true expense or lost income potential. Must be hard to watch that money slip through your fingers each month, as you watch home prices continue to drop as well.

    I still see way too many overpriced empty houses sitting in the listings. This is costing somebody a lot of money, and it’s not the potential buyers.

  69. 69
    Realistic says:

    RE: Justme @ 66
    Do you happen to have any data about the breakdown between used and new inventory in spring of 2018? Ardell @ 54 said that “new homes are being counted at higher numbers than ever in the past due to listing presales in higher numbers than ever before.”

    When I filter on Redfin for homes built up to 2018 the current inventory drops from ~3700 to ~2700. It would be good to know what it looked like in spring of 2017 and 2018 for a better comparison. I think most used home buyers are not shopping for new construction and vice-versa. So, if the breakdown of older homes vs new homes changed dramatically over the past 2 years we may not be evaluating the situation correctly by only looking at the total inventory.

  70. 70
    Justme says:

    RE: Realistic @ 69

    If the ratio of new/used house listings has increased in 2019, it means that spec and teardown builders are getting scared and are about to lose a lot more money. Many house buyers don’t mind new houses per se, but they do mind the steep price tag on new houses.

    Another thing, I looked at some of the pending new-build houses and noted that many have been pending for multiple months. That could be the main reason why the pending number is X and then the closed number Y is much lower (Y << X) when the end of the month stats arrive.

    Yet another reason to study and take to heart my product absorption counts, which show that new listings are converting into new pendings at a low rate.

    The buyer strike is working. Smart buyers join the strike. There was a seller strike and a buyer panic in 2014-2018. Don't be shy about fighting back, buyers. It's your money and your labor. Don't give it away to greedy bubble-mongering speculators.

  71. 71
    Justme says:

    The last King County SFH active inventory graph is now on Twitter. Head over there and show it some love, the more exposure the better.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1117225971029950464

  72. 72
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 61 – Sammamish and Issaquah were considered rural in the 80s/90s. Not anymore. There are now many million dollar homes. As long as commute is within an hour, it should be fine. I would avoid the flood plain.

  73. 73
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Realistic @ 69 – The reason number of new home listings has increased is because builders are getting nervous. There is no urgency to list if your product is in high demand. In a booming market, it is a better strategy to list later to fetch a higher price. Now builders don’t see increasing prices and want to lock in current prices so they list all inventory and presales. Presales provide (profit) certainty and limit potential (future) losses if market heads south. What it means for buyers is they now have bargaining power. You likely won’t get lower prices because builders want to maintain prices for remaining units. Instead they will offer incentives, eg upgrades, cheap financing, closing credit, to hide declining prices from becoming public knowledge. If you are in the market for a new home, drive a hard bargain and hope that the next buyer won’t get even lower prices! There is little reason to rush if the builder has multiple units for sale.

  74. 74
    Slairne says:

    I appreciate everyone’s thoughtful comments, but it really does seem like Justme is the only one here (besides SWE all out in right field) pushing an agenda. Is there a backstory here? Did s/he get burned on a bad purchase before because the commenting is just rabid, myopic, and seems detached from a lot of critical analysis.

  75. 75
    Lu Lu says:

    By OA @ 60:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 17

    Hey Ardell,

    Do you do any business in the Fall City / Snoqualmie Ridge areas? The price per sq foot is pretty high there as well (not as high a Bellevue/Issaquah/Kirland but definitely up there).

    I’m curious on your take on what will potentially happen in the next 5-10 years real estate-wise specifically in these two areas. And how is Snoqualimie Valley school district perceived compared to the other school districts in the Eastside?

    Appreciate your thoughts and feedback.

    I like that area. Close to I-90. Traffic to Seattle is not bad till Issaquah. Very beautiful nature area. New houses, well planned midclass community. The only problem is in Snow season, hard to get in and out. For 700K budget, go get and enjoy it. You can find a car pool to Issaquah to Seattle.

  76. 76

    RE: Eastsider @ 73
    The Large Barn Sized Energy Pig New Homes in SE Kent

    Stock is growing and no one qualifies now? New construction loans aren’t cheap, they all used to be 20% down conventional loans [no FHA, VA, etc…]….but the lack of a yard and close proximity [like 5 feet] from your neighbor’s window, no trees, completely clogged access roads to freeways from over building and they’re all pastel colored is the HORRIFYING part…

    $CASH$ investors aren’t grabbing these energy pigs up either. BTW, its 42 degrees and almost May…keep paying your utility bills for your pastel energy pigs….LOL…oh, remember to recycle….LOL

  77. 77

    RE: softwarengineer @ 64
    News From Our Seattle Mayor on the Asylum Hoards Possibly Heading This Way

    She welcomes the MASS Asylum Hoards with open arms and has more taxation, school property taxes and medical aid taxation for the Seattle area planned for the Bubbleheads. This isn’t Fascism, it needs no voter support? LOL…the fun goes on and on…we can let them sleep in the woodlands and pray they don’t start wild fires and unbreathable smoke pollutions…build more sewage treatment plants in Covington, we can afford it, but can the Orcas? OVERPOPULATION is our civic duty?

    Our OVERPOPULATION Chinese Overlords want it, we should too.

  78. 78
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Justme @ 70

    You must be fun at parties…

  79. 79
    sfrz says:

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 78 – I would love to be in JustMe’s corner, discussing, debating over drinks. Par-Tay!

  80. 80
    OA says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 61

    Thanks for the response Ardell.

    I actually like the area in general, I’ve been looking into it for the past 3 years. I’m aware of the flood plain areas there, most of that is in Carnation from what I’ve heard and read. Also, rumor is that Fall City will be getting sewers in 5 years, which will definitely cause an increase in development for both commercial and residential.

    Plenty of people from Microsoft live in Fall City (15-20min drive to Redmond campus). I work in Bellevue so it’s a 20-30 min drive depending on traffic.

    What’s your take on the Snoqualmie Valley school district? From the reviews online it seems to be a pretty good one, I personally don’t know anyone whose kids go there.

  81. 81
    OA says:

    RE: Lu Lu @ 75

    I tend to agree.

    From what I’ve seen the prices are not that much cheaper than Issaquah.

  82. 82
    Brian says:

    By OA @ 80:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 61

    Plenty of people from Microsoft live in Fall City (15-20min drive to Redmond campus). I work in Bellevue so it’s a 20-30 min drive depending on traffic.

    I wish driving from Redmond to Fall City was only 15-20mins. I make that commute a couple times a week and it’s more like 30-40mins. In fact Google says it is 28mins without traffic. Bellevue would be higher for sure.

  83. 83
    ess says:

    RE: OA @ 81

    Nice area east heading to the mountains. My only concern – doesn’t the amount of precipitation increase the further one goes from Seattle and the closer one gets to the mountains?

    We moved to South Snohomish County, and THEN I found out about the convergence zone. Thus I am more cognizant of umbrella sales than before.

  84. 84

    Boeing’s Bloody Axe On Seattle Workers Since 2012

    “…It’s unclear if this could be a definitive turn in the downsizing tide that began to swell in the fall of 2012 and has since then swept away 20,400 Boeing jobs in the state….”

    https://www.heraldnet.com/business/boeing-rushes-to-bring-back-retirees-as-temps/

    In the near future? Boeing Seattle 737 jobs axed too?

    http://www.kten.com/story/40123221/spirit-aerosystems-workers-concerned-as-boeing-737-max-8-planes-grounded

    It appears likely IMO. At a theater near you this Christmas?

    But what do I know, I just give you the raw data without the NWO spin. Even Trump called for Boeing to rebrand and redesign its 737 from the plague “MAX 8” name….and a new generation 737 just doesn’t appear with inadequate development and safety experience engineers left. I hope I’m wrong, but this MAX 8 grounding is continuing in news reports through August and more delays after that, etc, etc

  85. 85

    But SWE Doesn’t Speak For Most of our Sanctuary State?

    Perhaps not, but I sure got a lot of blog up arrows [44 BTW, no down arrows] for attacking the Seattle Mayor for wanting the asylum OVERPOPULATION Hoards:

    https://news.yahoo.com/seattle-mayor-responds-president-trump-211824331.html?messageId=f7efaa6b-a6a0-4239-a86b-032f9fd5103c&replyId=a6a57f0e-271c-4ec3-a478-4a03213dfc7a&bcmt=1&amp;.tsrc=bell-canvass

    “…yesterday
    I Live in Seattle

    And Seattle isn’t afraid of taxing us to death with no voter support either.
    SWE

    Oil Man
    20 hours ago
    @ G, only if you leave any liberal voting behind
    G

    21 hours ago
    Hey. Time to leave. I’m in SW Portland…and I’m looking into jobs in a couple of red states. State tax in OR is over 9% for me. And I cannot deduct it on my federal taxes. I’m paying tax on tax. Time to go….”

  86. 86

    RE: Brian @ 82

    As to distance I was talking about Snoqualmie. As to Fall City-Tolt I was talking about being aware of which roads may be subject to flooding.

    I didn’t say Fall City was too far out.

    Sorry for the confusion. We were talking about both areas in the same thread.

  87. 87

    Perhaps Snow Tonight?

    There will be ice to scrape and frost on the roofs at 38 degrees…

    They predict 38 degrees tonight…it dipped to 41 degrees last night…global warming, wear thick coats.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather/united-states/kent/kent-23424684

    How’s those “giant” new Seattle area “pastel home energy pig barns” doing on heat costs? I’m sure energy pig homes add to climate change, significantly and FAR worse than cars too…its called mass plastics, diesel oil and shipments from China, etc, etc…

    But what does SWE know, he just studied energy use planning in Nuclear Engineering at the U of W…butcher axe him, he’s an American Safety Engineer against the NWO….LOL….can’t get me, I’m retired…

  88. 88

    I’m heading out of town tomorrow for a week of Spring Break with my family.

    Ran a few numbers before leaving just to take the pulse for my own business needs. Thought I’d share since I have them here on my desk.

    Parameters

    Eastside (Kirkland, Bellevue Redmond, Issaquah, Sammamish, Bothell. (I tend to throw in Bothell before I throw in Snoqualmie). I include Clyde Hill and Medina but count them as if they are part of Bellevue. I do include the more rural part of Redmond zip 98053 and not just close in 98052.

    At least 3 bedrooms (2 bedrooms on the Eastside tends to be a teardown), At least 1,600 sf single family home, priced under $3 Million, at least 2 toilets (1.5 baths).

    There are 658 homes for sale. 448 of those are not new construction. 82 of the new construction homes listed don’t exist yet, 114 of the 448 for sale have only been on market for a week or less. 188 have been on market for 30 days or more. 121 are “stale” at 45 days or more.

    To do median price I have to take out the price cap of $3Million, so these are for all homes meeting the rest of the parameters and without regard to days on market which adds about 50 not new houses and 35 or so new ones.

    The median price for the new homes is $1.5 Million

    The median price for the not new homes is $1.3 Million

    That price differential surprised me so I dropped the age of “not new” all the way back to built in 2000 or before and the median is still high at $1,250,000.

    So new homes don’t seem to be selling at a much higher median price than the older ones. Maybe because the older ones are in better locations with higher land value?

    I don’t usually run stats while on vacation and only do A-time work while away. So this gives me a place to jump back in a week from tomorrow when I return. Hopefully it is of some value to someone else as well.

    (Required Disclosure) Stats in this post are not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. They are hand calculated in real-time by Ardell.)

  89. 89

    Here’s the Listing of My $26K Short Sale I Recently [2014] Grabbed Up in Kansas City

    The roof looks newer and I did add trim wood replacement and dead tree code updates [about $4K]….beautiful large steel fencing surrounding a 1/2 park full of Oak Trees [they’re a protected species in KS, ya can’t cut ’em down either like Seattle], a picnic table in the HUGE shaded back yard with privacy green belt in back too…and comes with a 2018 Central Air and New Gas Furnace too [$4500 installed both in KS with new energy efficiency thermostat]…..that’s my daughter’s college money for Junior/Senior years replaced. LOL…the $600/mo rent in KS for this unit times 12 and times 5 years is $36K already….its tripled in listed price too…no college loan for this 30 YO Milenial couple and avg Seattle household pay too.

    Why is this bad?

  90. 90
  91. 91

    The Colder Wet Weather Rotting All the Fence Posts in Kent?

    Drive around and look at the “raw data”, fence post are cracking in two all over Kent in groves….repair evidence is all over, even newer fences….I had one crack in two too….

    Rot is magnified in fence post wood from Seattle area Polar Vortex damp global cooling? When you replace your cracked in two pieces posts, don’t use cement, use bricks or large rocks instead [works just as good too], the cement is hard to dig out to replace broken posts, bricks aren’t.

  92. 92
    Realistic says:

    Most of the stats we are reading here show market slowdown and YOY decline. But here is something interesting that flies in the face of that. In March – July of 2018, at the peak of the market, there were two very similar units sold for $659k – $660k:
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/4013-159th-Ave-NE-98052/unit-28D/home/2390
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/16004-NE-41st-Ct-98052/unit-10-B/home/52849

    In September a similar townhouse was listed for $700k:
    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/48845949_zpid
    The asking price at that time was obviously crazy considering the summer comps that I mentioned earlier. Not surprisingly, the price got reduced several times and the home didn’t sell. It got re-listed again on 3/24 at a more reasonable price of $668k. Considering the YOY market drop I expected it to sell for less than the 2018 summer comps of $660k. Yet, it went pending within 3 days and closed 18 days later for a whopping $700k. That’s 6% appreciation compared to the peak of 2018. How come?

  93. 93
    Joe says:

    RE: OA @ 80

    Fall City is NOT a 15-20 minute drive to the Microsoft Redmond campus. It is a 40 minute drive without traffic. With traffic it is an hour.

    I find that real estate people always under-report the drive times.

  94. 94

    RE: Joe @ 93

    I know it looks like I said that because of the way the comment came up. I did NOT say it nor did a real estate person say it. OA said it in comment 80. I always tell people to drive it at different times and days before committing to an area that is far out.

    I know it’s fun to pick on real estate agents…but I did not say that and as far as I know I am the only “real estate people” here at the moment. :)

    Who else is a real estate people? Can we get a head count? LOL!

  95. 95
    Deerhawke says:

    By Slairne @ 74:

    I appreciate everyone’s thoughtful comments, but it really does seem like Justme is the only one here (besides SWE all out in right field) pushing an agenda. Is there a backstory here? Did s/he get burned on a bad purchase before because the commenting is just rabid, myopic, and seems detached from a lot of critical analysis.

    Perceptive observation. Perceptive question.

    Justme is kind of like a person who keeps warning about the coming deluge— in an area in the middle of the Mojave Desert. That is not to say there will not be a deluge there ( in fact there were record rains and flooding there this spring). But somebody who keeps making the same totally wrong argument for years is only right by accident when there is one.

    I would not be surprised if he contributes his vast store of knowledge to blogs on the imminent threat of civilization ending meteor strikes.

  96. 96
    Erik says:

    RE: Slairne @ 74
    I don’t read Justme’s comments.

  97. 97
    Erik says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 65
    Unemployment is at a 50 year low. Feds are tightening the scews or this economy would really be roaring.

  98. 98
    steven says:

    RE: Realistic @ 92

    better staging, better kitchen, better cabinets and better floor. its not just sq ft and neighbord. ppl care about loox esp now that market turned

  99. 99
    steven says:

    even the bathrooms are updated. did you at least looka t the pics or read the comments?

  100. 100
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Erik @ 96

    Justdon’t ™

  101. 101
    Justme says:

    Someone creates a brand new account “Slairne” just to disparage me? I almost feel honored. And the famed Deerhawke and several other bubble-mongers and inflation-mongers pipe in to talk about how wrong it is of me to point out what the data says and what the propaganda is.

    My, my. The buyer strike must be working beyond expectation. Who would have thunk, fighting back against overpriced housing does work.

    Would it not be much better if all this greed and resulting losses could have been avoided? Most non-1% taxpayers would have been considerably better off without bubbles.

  102. 102
    Realistic says:

    By steven @ 98:

    RE: Realistic @ 92

    better staging, better kitchen, better cabinets and better floor. its not just sq ft and neighbord. ppl care about loox esp now that market turned

    I agree there is a difference in the presentation and remodel but not as huge to justify such a difference (the appliances are actually better in the first unit that sold in 2018). I think a $40k premium over the other 2 units, despite YOY decline, is a lot. And I still don’t understand why it sold now way above asking even though it didn’t sell last year despite price drops. Just bad timing?

  103. 103
    OA says:

    RE: Joe @ 93

    I drove it plenty of times during non traffic on highway 202 (mostly late evenings) and there’s no way it took 40 minutes. I just googled fall city to Microsoft and it shows 23 mins but google maps is always more conservative in my experience.

    Also, I’m not sure what a real estate person is, but I’m not an agent.

  104. 104
    Ron says:

    By softwarengineer @ 90:

    Update: to blog above

    https://www.redfin.com/KS/Kansas-City/1126-S-49-Dr-66106/home/97202753

    Those schools are hot garbage. I wonder what kind of young families live there.

  105. 105
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Ron @ 104:

    By softwarengineer @ 90:

    Update: to blog above

    https://www.redfin.com/KS/Kansas-City/1126-S-49-Dr-66106/home/97202753

    Those schools are hot garbage. I wonder what kind of young families live there.

    And a walk score of 6. Who wouldn’t want to live there?

  106. 106
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Slairne @ 74

    I take it then that you’re only reading Justme and SWE’s comments? Everyone here is pushing some kind of agenda.

  107. 107

    RE: Ron @ 104
    Seattle Area Has Garbage Schools Destroyed by OVERPOPULATION

    Green River College pre-admissions math tests prove it….graduates are 9th grade math/science literate.

  108. 108
    uwp says:

    By Ohd1122 @ 106:

    I take it then that you’re only reading Justme and Slairne’s comments? Everyone here is pushing some kind of agenda.

    Psssst…
    Hey! Come ‘ere.

    Yeah, you. Come over here.

    You wanna buy a house? I got a couple’a reaaaaal nice ones here.

    I will let ’em go to ya fer a steal. But you gotta buy it now. Or else you’ll be priced out forever.
    Forever, ya hear?

    Whaddya think?

  109. 109

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 106
    And SWE Is the Worse

    If everyone [including yourself] has freedom of speech. What side of unAmerican are you on anyway?

  110. 110
    Notme says:

    Is it possible?
    pathological liars
    can once speak the truth?

    -a bubble haiku

  111. 111

    RE: softwarengineer @ 109
    All Seattle Employers Hate Trump Supporters

    And if they find out , you’re butcher axed? LOL

    There’s plenty of Trump supporting company managers mixed in, the opposite will happen to you Open Border Party folks if you keep pushing this HORRIFYING Freedom of Speech ban on Populists…believe me, “what goes around, comes around” and they’re listening to you at work carefully….I imagine personal iPhone use is monitored [electronically too?] now as a “productivity” loss. It is. You can’t fool SWE, I’ve been in company management too long.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/employee-privacy-is-at-stake-as-surveillance-tech-monitors-workers.html

  112. 112
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 106
    RE: Slairne @ 74
    Seriously though, everyone here has an agenda! (Even if that agenda is only to decide whether now is a good time to buy, as is my case.) And in Justme’s defense, it *is* a bubble blog. I enjoy everyone’s commentary except SWE.

  113. 113

    RE: Justme @ 101
    I Read All the Blogs

    So what if we have disagreements, to tell you the truth, some of “my best Freedom of Speech American style attacks” come from my foes….listen more and learn [shut up IOWs…LOL]…its Toastmasters 101 or leadership training folks. Don’t shut views out, welcome them. Don’t try to help ALL people succeed at once? That’s the road to doom. Open minds is basically how we learn credible leadership training BTW. Haven’t some of you bloggers ever gotten real management training? Grow and and stop being a brainless robot ;-0

    I do change my views 180 degrees at times [with credible data], we all should. Continuously too. Am I perfect at it? Hades no…why do you think I’ve been in Toastmasters since 1985, its lifetime learning with no end.

    So blog your honest feelings and stop criticizing others whose honest feelings oppose your’s….find that Win/Win compromise and start singing that child song, adults should sing too, “If you’re happy and ya know it clap your hands” “if you’re happy and ya know it then ya really ought to show it”…try singing it, it does make ya happy ;-)

    Have a cup of joe and smile more…

    Visit a Toastmasters Club and open up your reality.

  114. 114
    steven says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 112

    obviously he’s too biased to know that he’s biased.

    also, in reference to the 40k appreciation; i think it’s bad timing, wrong presentation with inadequate update, and most of all good luck on the 2019 guy (he may have picked out the perfect timing to list his home, before listing rush but after home buyers coming out)? i mean in all reality, home sales are luck of a draw. There’s a general price trend with estimates of the home, but that should be taken as a range not necessarily a point. for example on downtown condos, some are selling even 30% lower than what they would’ve last year. ( i put condos as examples because locality and layouts are usually similar just like ur examples). That doesn’t mean that the market for downtown condos tanked 30% (at least yet).

  115. 115
    Realistic says:

    RE: steven @ 114
    Indeed, I also like comparing condos and townhouses in the same HOAs for YOY trends because it’s apples-to-apples comparison with very similar floor-plans. The sample size is smaller but it usually gives an accurate view at least for specific areas.

  116. 116
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 51:

    RE: S-Crow @ 43
    But its OK if the southern border is stuck with hoards of unwanted mooches pouring in …Have these Open Border Party (OBP) politicians lost their minds on immediate/important environmental planning?

    “Hoards?”
    Actually the number of immigrants showing up at the border has been plummeting for 10-20 years!
    https://images.app.goo.gl/R94RPtccxMQQCzoT9
    It is all a made up crisis! Trump and his useful idiots in the corporate media keep it going…

    For anyone new to this forum, “Software Engineer” and a few others here are our resident idiots who regularly post invective drivel and nonsense. I almost always skip over any of their posts, but occasionally bother to post a rebuttal and warning.
    Have a nice day!

  117. 117
    Erik says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 112
    SWE adds interesting perspective to seabub. Perhaps you come from different backgrounds? SWE does not have bad comments because you don’t understand them. I find his comments enlightening sometimes.

  118. 118
    Erik says:

    RE: Blake @ 116
    SWE is highly intelligent. He’s math minded like myself. I find his comments to be consistently accurate. You can have your own opinion about his comments, I do not feel that way at all. SWE is one of the smartest people on this site.

    I like SWE’s comment 113. If you disagree with him, you should try to learn why. Criticism will get you nowhere.

  119. 119
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 109
    Ignore these simple minded people and keep commenting. I enjoy reading your comments.

  120. 120
    House Humper says:

    I have been a huge bear for years now. I think there is a chance I have misread this market and it has legs. This could be the 80’s again. I can admit if I was wrong, it’s part of my charm. I am not willing to make that call yet but I admitting some capitulation.

    SoftwareEngineer, ignore the haters, I like your random stream of consciousness posts that always have Kansas City, Toastmasters, and Hades No worked into the content no matter what is being discussed. It has a sort of charm much like an old grandparent in his favorite chair repeating the same stories. Keep up the posts, they are like a warm familiar blanket.

  121. 121
    OA says:

    RE: Erik @ 119

    I agree. Resorting to name calling just because you disagree with someone or don’t have much in common with doesn’t make your post anymore valuable. You know you wouldn’t call him an idiot in person yet you do it over a computer screen like a coward.

  122. 122
    Eastsider says:

    By Justme @ 101:

    Most non-1% taxpayers would have been considerably better off without bubbles.

    ^^^ This. Assuming you always need a shelter, the ever increasing property taxes associated with higher home prices is a serious drain on your spending and savings. You have basically become a house slave to the state. Imagine how much taxes you could have saved if you lived in a typical Midwest city your whole life.

  123. 123
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 122:

    By Justme @ 101:

    Most non-1% taxpayers would have been considerably better off without bubbles.

    ^^^ This. Assuming you always need a shelter, the ever increasing property taxes associated with higher home prices is a serious drain on your spending and savings. You have basically become a house slave to the state. Imagine how much taxes you could have saved if you lived in a typical Midwest city your whole life.

    just think how much extra income you would’ve earned in a state with higher wages and no income tax.

  124. 124
    N says:

    Apparently renters need to head north to Vancouver

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-16/college-kids-are-living-like-kings-in-vancouver-s-empty-mansions

    With taxes on an empty Vancouver home potentially adding up to 3 percent in annual levies, homeowners are rushing to lease their homes, according to real estate agents. That’s leading to bargains in a city where the vacancy rate has been near zero percent.

    “You have houses that are worth C$4 million renting for C$4,500,” said Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver realtor whose popular real estate blog was pointing out cracks in the market even as benchmark prices peaked last year.

    Prospective tenants are getting bold, said Kevin Wang, who runs a sales and rental real estate team with his twin brother Jerry. They’ve received calls from people offering to help with gardening or maintenance in exchange for free rent in a luxury home.

    One flyer offers a 368-square-foot unit at C$515,000. “Transfer at original price,” it reads in Chinese. Last year, it would’ve fetched as much as C$800,000, says Jerry Huang, a realtor with Nu Stream Realty Inc., which specializes in presale developments.

  125. 125
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Erik @ 117RE: OA @ 121 – I didn’t call anyone an idiot. I simply said I don’t enjoy his commentary. You are the ones making assumptions and name calling.

  126. 126
    Eastsider says:

    By kenmorem @ 123:

    just think how much extra income you would’ve earned in a state with higher wages and no income tax.

    If you are a teacher, you can’t afford a home in Seattle. So where is the extra income?!

  127. 127
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 126:

    By kenmorem @ 123:

    just think how much extra income you would’ve earned in a state with higher wages and no income tax.

    If you are a teacher, you can’t afford a home in Seattle. So where is the extra income?!

    you’re a renter and making bank given the rent vs own arguments.
    if you’re in tech, you’re fine.

    if you’re a fast food server in the midwest, do you own a home still? no. should all fast food adult workers own a home? no. should all teachers in seattle own a home? no. should all lawyers in NYC own a home? no.

    what’s the argument again?

  128. 128
    Blake says:

    By OA @ 121:

    RE: Erik @ 119

    I agree. Resorting to name calling just because you disagree with someone or don’t have much in common with doesn’t make your post anymore valuable. You know you wouldn’t call him an idiot in person yet you do it over a computer screen like a coward.

    I rebutted the BS he is spreading and has been spreading for YEARS on this site! There is no immigration crisis at the border as immigrants – especially from Mexico – have declined DRASTICALLY the last 10-20 years! Look at what I posted and look it up yourself. SWE also continues to refer to Obama and others as part of the “Open Border” party, but Obama enthusiastically raised funding for ICE and deported FAR MORE people than any president in US history! This is partly why immigration FELL during his presidency. (Ironically, this hurts US economic growth… we rely upon cheap immigrant labor.)

    SWE and others continue to post absolute BS about immigration and other topics, so I correct him, post facts, and warn others that he is an idiot. (I could say worse as he has also posted bigoted and borderline racist things as well!)

    I assume that all of you on this forum are adults, so I would hope that you could deal with actual facts and not live in a fantasy world. The whole purpose of Tim’s site is to cut through all the BS about real estate in Seattle and get to the facts.

  129. 129
    ronp says:

    RE: Blake @ 128 – I just don’t read SWE posts, they are all the same and all looney tunes. So just skip over them.

    That being said I bet he is a great guy to have a beer with if you avoid talking politics. He seems like an awesome Dad too from what he has posted about helping his kids.

  130. 130
    Eastsider says:

    By kenmorem @ 127:

    if you’re in tech, you’re fine.

    should all teachers in seattle own a home? no.

    what’s the argument again?

    People making teachers salaries far outnumber techies making six figure income. Renting is also expensive.

  131. 131
    OA says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 125

    My mistake, I mean to respond to post 116

  132. 132
    OA says:

    RE: Blake @ 128

    I get it, you disagree with him on a bunch of stuff, including politics. Still no need for name-calling.

  133. 133
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 130:

    By kenmorem @ 127:

    if you’re in tech, you’re fine.

    should all teachers in seattle own a home? no.

    what’s the argument again?

    People making teachers salaries far outnumber techies making six figure income. Renting is also expensive.

    DON’T LIVE HERE THEN.

  134. 134
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 133 – I know you’re trying to take a shot at certain people with this comment, but I honestly don’t see why anyone making less than $100K would want to live in this area. I’ve always had that thought about the Bay Area as well.

  135. 135
    uwp says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 134:

    RE: kenmorem @ 133 – I know you’re trying to take a shot at certain people with this comment, but I honestly don’t see why anyone making less than $100K would want to live in this area. I’ve always had that thought about the Bay Area as well.

    Family?

    (Seattle median income is under 100k)

  136. 136
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: uwp @ 135 – Yes, of course.

    I’m talking about the cost/benefit of these areas based on their own merits. Not ties like family.

    If you have family here and can’t bear to leave then you’re stuck.

  137. 137
    Eastsider says:

    By kenmorem @ 133:

    DON’T LIVE HERE THEN.

    You just made my point in post 122.

  138. 138
    steven says:

    RE: Blake @ 128

    clearly this guy and oa live in their own bubble only watching cnn and disregard anything that ppl who actually live through the immigration crises have to say about the matter. border cities as well as border patrol are all in board. this is so reminiscent of human civilization where all the people involved are always disregarded and people uninvolved have all the righteousness and say. idiots. yes im name calling. i dun give a ***** for those who hasnt done anything for this country and yet choose to bash and ignore on those who do everyday.

  139. 139
    Erik says:

    RE: ronp @ 129
    I met SWE, he’s a good guy. He likes helping people out. If people knew him, they wouldn’t act so disrespectful.

  140. 140
    Erik says:

    RE: steven @ 138
    Watching the democratic national committee make fools of themselves pushes me to the republican side. Democrats seem like a bunch of crazy liars right now. After George W Bush, I wanted to be liberal. After watching obama cry about guns and invest in transgender bathrooms when we needed him the most pissed me off. Trump is kicking butt. Lowest unemployment in 50 years! Stock market up 40% since he took office. After seeIng Trump’s success, I will only vote for business people moving forward and not slimy politicians like crooked H. and Pochohauntas. I’m glad these lying politicians are being exposed.

  141. 141
    ess says:

    Is the new tax law affecting the sale of more expensive houses in the Puget Sound area?

    Perhaps this will be akin to the pleasure boat industry. When a tax was placed on higher priced yachts, the yachting public bought less expensive yachts to avoid the tax. Not to mention the workers in that industry who were impacted by the layoffs created by the lesser demand.

    Are any of you prospective home buyers including the tax changes to interest rate deduction when planning to purchase your first or more expensive home?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-trumps-tax-law-helping-or-hurting-the-housing-market-2019-04-16?mod=mw_latestnews

  142. 142
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 140

    Erik I just want to point out to you that the entire time that Obama was in office his main job was resurrecting an economy that the Republicans had driven into the cesspool. And the Republicans were no help because they were sanctimoniously standing up for fiscal conservativism. But suddenly Trump is in office (with no mandate because he lost the popular vote by a massive 3 million votes) and the Republicans flip-flopped and pushed through a huge tax cut, mainly to corporations and the rich. Fiscal conservativism be damned. The deficit? Who cares?!

    Look all of this is nothing but brutalist politics. There is no real thought about what is rational or good for the economy long term. What we have right now is pure Keynesian pump priming. And the economy is on an unsustainable sugar high. All sugar highs are followed by a sugar crash and a really nasty headache.

    You are a smart young guy. But for your own financial self-preservation, turn off Fox News and its MAGA cheerleaders. (They are Justme on a different tangent– always smugly assured of how right they are, but never right.) If you dont, you will be the guy with a MAGA hat looking silly with no chair when the music stops during the next recession.

    Get a digital subscription to the NY Times, the Washington Post and the Wall St Journal and read the business sections. It is money well spent. That is where you will get clues about the next downturn or crash. That is where I got the clues about the 2008 crash in late 2006.

  143. 143
    Deerhawke says:

    Interesting piece on population trends in King County by Gene Balk in today’s Seattle Times.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/king-county-population-growth-hits-decade-low-census-data-shows/

    As always, it is a good idea to read the whole article rather than just the headline.

  144. 144
    uwp says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 143 – Justme will be here to tell us that domestic net migration was negative, while leaving out that international net migration was at all time highs. Plus, natural increase in population doesn’t matter because “babies don’t buy houses.” And also, the numbers are fake because Census.gov is part of the REIC.

    Anyway, ~29,000 more people in King County. Still growing faster than the US as a whole.

  145. 145

    RE: Erik @ 140
    Yes Erik

    Trump is an old fashion Democrat [like Democrat Wash State Sen Scoop Jackson] for higher wages for Seattle buyers/voters, and if ya think higher wages with less population won’t stabilize real estate prices, I have bridge I can sell ya. Scoop would scream bloody murder now, with 20,000 Seattle Boeing jobs outsourced since 2012 and the 737 in jeopardy…where’s Cantwell in comparison on Boeing outsourcing? She doesn’t lift a finger.

    Keep on blogging disagreements with me too, I appreciate them best if you just give your opinion. Period. We all can agree to disagree, but it rarely makes any one a bad person. Let’s all learn new stuff together. Real estate is the biggest financial decision you make in life, tread carefully through the rattle snakes…I’ve learned so much listening to most of your blogs.

    Hey, today’s my Toastmasters meeting at Kent City Hall [12PM]…I’m continuously learning how to meld conflicting evaluations, a good skill for negotiations on real estate planning communications..

  146. 146

    RE: uwp @ 144
    Automation Is Reducing Jobs in Seattle

    Hades, I was designing robotics for the aerospace production in 1978…robots aren’t new at all. We can use trained workers in manufacturing management, setup and skilled welding, etc…they aren’t green college graduates or folks from other counties either, we need experienced American folks that can design and create with engineering again. We need to plan and mange Seattle with voter approval for once too. Why is that bad?

    Population planning [gradual, over generations] does not mean reducing our Seattle life styles to paupers living in over priced houses either…that sounds like Hades….LOL

    Hey…I’m on my 3rd Jane Hawk Dean Koontz novel [2018], I’ve got the 4th hard cover too [2018 too], the final 5th book is released this May. She’s fighting dirty cops from the FBI and DOJ…..LOL, just like today…Koontz is so funny too, he makes California appear like it is, trashed and destroyed…with phony rich neighborhoods.

  147. 147

    RE: ess @ 141

    Usually the buyers don’t focus on the tax benefits as much as a seller who has enjoyed the tax benefit for years and lost it. So yes as to new listings. Could also be buyers who currently own and are selling but not buying. Yes, I have seen and heard that in high end recently.

    I don’t remember the price point at which the deduction issue kicks in. I think it was capped at $10,000 a year but that $10,000 wasn’t only mortgage interest. I didn’t read the link as I’m on vacation this week. Maybe that answer is in there.

  148. 148
    ess says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 147

    Thanks for your perspective. Taxes are used not only to raise income, but to drive public behavior. And sometimes tax alterations change behavior, often as an unanticipated consequence.

  149. 149
    Blake says:

    By Deerhawke @ 142:

    RE: Erik @ 140
    You are a smart young guy. But for your own financial self-preservation, turn off Fox News and its MAGA cheerleaders. (They are Justme on a different tangent– always smugly assured of how right they are, but never right.) If you dont, you will be the guy with a MAGA hat looking silly with no chair when the music stops during the next recession.

    Get a digital subscription to the NY Times, the Washington Post and the Wall St Journal and read the business sections. It is money well spent. That is where you will get clues about the next downturn or crash. That is where I got the clues about the 2008 crash in late 2006.

    I’d like to reiterate what Deerhawke wrote here, but also note that the US (corporate) media in general is a cesspool of corruption because they are dependent upon those in power as “sources.” Their sources include those in the Federal agencies (CIA, DOD, FBI, EPA…), Congress (pigs), the two political parties (both truly horrible and utterly compromised), as well as the largest corporations and the PR firms they employ for $billions. But the business sections MUST maintain a certain amount of objectivity because the investors and owners of this country don’t want BS and need real information to act upon.

    The NYTimes’ business section has almost always been quite good as well as the Wall St Journal’s business and finance sections… in spite of their ownership and whatever crap their national/international/”political” sections were printing! I can’t recommend the Financial Times (of London) highly enough. (You can get a print subscription for about $15 a month now… a great deal!)

    I like to tell friends and family that the US has been “perfecting corruption.”
    What is legal regarding campaign fundraising and the revolving door between Congress/government and the corporations (incl their lobbyists and PR firms) is illegal in most other democracies. And the US corporate media is a full-fledged partner in the “System” as they are owned by these corporations and they wine and dine at all the same parties in New York, DC, LA and Marthas Vineyard with the political and economic elites.

    It’s difficult to cut through all the BS because literally billions is spent on PR to deceive us… because the people are the threat to the status quo! But it is important to remain wary, skeptical and try to find the truth.

    My other favorite quote now is: The biggest conspiracy is the conspiracy to maintain the status quo.
    The powerful elites love the status quo because they are making a killing the way things are… and want to keep it that way! Don’t underestimate what they are willing to do to maintain the current system! They employ many, many smart people who spend ALL THEIR TIME conspiring (in secret mostly) how to undermine reformers and prevent change.
    And… Their weapon is the media!

    (Oh, by the way: The elite Liberal/Centrists are tied to WallSt and the “System” and they HATE the Left… look at them attacking Bernie… especially his decision to go on Fox to appeal to “all the people!” These elites were especially appalled in 2016 that so many Americans were receptive what BOTH Trump and Bernie were saying: The system is broken and corrupt! The elite Dems are actually trying to run in 2020 on a return to the previous status quo!)

  150. 150
    Blake says:

    I have no idea what Software Engineer, Erik or other people posting here are like in person. I can only judge them by what they post and how they react to things I post. People are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts!

    Regarding the immigration “crisis”… the facts show that it is a fake crisis created by Trump and the GOP to exploit fears, get votes, and distract Americans from other issues. Immigration has been declining significantly and to continue to not note this and post alarming, erroneous information on this forum is irresponsible, whips up hatred and does not reflect well upon the intelligence and motivations of the people who post it.

    Sorry if I do get exhausted and call these people idiots. Maybe they know better and are just cynical and don’t give a damn… who knows?

    I’ll bring up one more topic which Software Engineer has posted about on this forum for years and which I have continually rebutted: Anti-Vaccine BS!!

    Look at this:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/measles-complication-leads-israeli-flight-attendant-slipping-coma-n995736

    A 43-year old flight attendant is in a coma because she was exposed to measles!! How would you feel if you were that woman’s father, mother or husband? (This was a flight from New York and it is likely that this is related to the measles outbreak in the Hasidic Orthodox communities in New York, so don’t get me going on religious, brain-dead fundamentalism!!)

    This is the 21st century and these “IDIOTS” are endangering ALL of us!!

    It is not “blah blah blah”… “I think”.. “someone said this”… The FACTS say otherwise!! Vaccines are one of the greatest creations of modern society and they are NOT linked to autism and there is no conspiracy involved, except a yearning to reduce unnecessary suffering and death!! (Yes, I worked in vaccine research and years ago shook the hand of one of the docs who created the polio vaccine, so I am “biased”… He’s a hero of mine!)

    If SWE or any of you want to use this forum to tell people to not vaccinate your kids then you can go f*ck yourselves.
    Sorry… You are indeed horrible ignoramuses and IDIOTS and there are consequences to the BS you post! Not only is measles spreading, but violence against Hispanics and immigrants is also rising… nice.

  151. 151
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 142:

    RE: Erik @ 140

    Erik I just want to point out to you that the entire time that Obama was in office his main job was resurrecting an economy that the Republicans had driven into the cesspool. And the Republicans were no help because they were sanctimoniously standing up for fiscal conservativism. But suddenly Trump is in office (with no mandate because he lost the popular vote by a massive 3 million votes) and the Republicans flip-flopped and pushed through a huge tax cut, mainly to corporations and the rich. Fiscal conservativism be damned. The deficit? Who cares?!

    Look all of this is nothing but brutalist politics. There is no real thought about what is rational or good for the economy long term. What we have right now is pure Keynesian pump priming. And the economy is on an unsustainable sugar high. All sugar highs are followed by a sugar crash and a really nasty headache.

    You are a smart young guy. But for your own financial self-preservation, turn off Fox News and its MAGA cheerleaders. (They are Justme on a different tangent– always smugly assured of how right they are, but never right.) If you dont, you will be the guy with a MAGA hat looking silly with no chair when the music stops during the next recession.

    Get a digital subscription to the NY Times, the Washington Post and the Wall St Journal and read the business sections. It is money well spent. That is where you will get clues about the next downturn or crash. That is where I got the clues about the 2008 crash in late 2006.

    If you just read NY Times, the Washington Post, Hillary should have been THE PRESIDENT, NOT! If you just read NY Times, the Washington Post, Trump should have been indicted on RUSSIAN COLLUSION, NOT!

    Builders should just build homes IMO.

  152. 152
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 150 – Huh? Has Erik or SWE told people to not vaccinate against measles? Are you okay?

  153. 153
    Blake says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 152
    Yes, SWE was still posting Anti-VAXX BS earlier this year… and I rebutted it with facts.

    I hope he’s seen the light and has his kids and/or grand-kids vaccinated now.

  154. 154
    steven says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 152

    obviously, he’s not. he can’t even tell the difference between hearsays from what friends of friends said about vaccines based on claims from a incarcerated physician who lost his medical license from false vaccine claims and what cbp/border city residents speak of from their personal day-to-day life on how illegal immigration and border crossings are impacting them.
    by the way, crises is the plural form of crisis. Obviously, I don’t expect you to know that with your level of education.

  155. 155
    Blake says:

    RE: steven @ 154
    OK steven… tell me what my education level is.
    BS Industrial and Systems Engineering, MS Biostatistics. I have co-authored over a dozen published medical research papers and one just received a paper of the year award from Stanford University.

    Please help me… post some data and facts showing that there is a CRISIS at the US border?

    Here: https://images.app.goo.gl/LPutWyFEA16EK1cR7

    … do you see a trend starting BEFORE Trump was elected?

  156. 156
    ronp says:

    RE: Erik @ 139 – that is great to hear that you met him. I knew he was a good guy. Sometimes you just have to let people vent on the internet and not take them so seriously

  157. 157
    Justme says:

    Mid-week update: New inventory and pendings, buyer strike edition

    Data is from 8-ish yesterday (Weds) morning, for King County, WA (Seattle and suburbs).

    <=1wk new inventory: 0783  = 0552 + 0099 + 0132 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=2wk new inventory: 1614  = 1114 + 0234 + 0266 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=3wk new inventory: 2391  = 1672 + 0310 + 0409 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=4wk new inventory: 3191  = 2245 + 0405 + 0541 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=1wk DOM _pendings: 0246  = 0178 + 0032 + 0036 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=2wk DOM _pendings: 0709  = 0518 + 0078 + 0113 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=3wk DOM _pendings: 1222  = 0895 + 0135 + 0192 (SFH,townhouse,condo)
    <=4wk DOM _pendings: 1693  = 1239 + 0182 + 0272 (SFH,townhouse,condo)

    Note that even the “<=1wk new inventory" already is net of the product lost to the "<=1wk DOM pending" category. A completely accurate count of total inventory supplied in <=Nwk is therefore higher than what is shown in this table. I'll update the table when I get the time to do the full calculations. But I can already say that for all product categories (SFH, TH, CO), the market uptake of new product is under 50% even after *4wks* of DOM. If one counts also older inventory and older pendings, the uptake is even lower.

    Summary: The buyer strike is in full swing, even right now in peak season. Buyers, exercise your market power and join the buyer strike against overpriced goods. It’s your money and your future labor on the hook. Don’t give it away.

  158. 158
    Steve says:

    i wish SWE would take the off topic rants to Facebook, where it belongs. If this was an actively moderated board he would’ve been banned a long time ago.

    Grandpas gotten into the fox news hole kids.

  159. 159
  160. 160
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 143

    The good: This particular King County population count newspaper article uses pretty solid data sources (Census ACS), and it considers births-deaths as well as both domestic and international migration. Much better than the average ST population count article, which often used utterly wrong OFM data and incoming-only DOL driver license data. OFM counts are based on the assumptions that all new housing units are occupied. With a 10.5% vacancy rate for Seattle in Jan 2019, we KNOW that is not true. So: Kudos for using good sources for this article..

    The bad: The article shows population counts starting with the 2010-2011 change, completely missing the big population drops in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. If you subtract those, the accumulated increase is much lower. For the purpose of assessing the housing situation, not accounting for so many people leaving during the bust leads to a quite misleading big picture. Of course, all the usual bubble-mongering housing-inflationistas love to ignore the fact that so many people left, but then inexplicably (hah!) equally love to count them when they come back.

    The awesome: Net domestic migration to King County was negative. For the first time since, oh, 2009-2010, which, as noted above, was not included in the data. The international migration was positive, but this latest data is for 2017-2018 not 2018-2019. The 2017-2018 data shows international net migration to KC slowing markedly, and it will be even lower for 2018-2019.

    Reference:
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/king-county-population-growth-hits-decade-low-census-data-shows/

  161. 161
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 155 – We may or may not have a border crisis, but we do have a national crisis. Nobody has any idea how many illegals are in the country and people like you are doing all you can to prevent the actual tally (e.g. census count!) and provide ‘sanctuary’! All I see is in Bellevue SD, there are many kids nowadays without docs and they are straining school budgets. In another country, such level of illegal invasion is considered a CRISIS. If you want to play qualification game, put your name out there like Paul Krugman. You need to know that on many issues there are multiple opinions. Not everyone disagreeing with you is bad, deplorable, or evil.

  162. 162
    ess says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/renter-boom-apartments-filling-up-faster-in-seattle-area-than-anywhere-in-the-u-s/

    The glut of apartments in Seattle appears to be subsiding. That is good news for both landlords, and indirectly those homeowners wishing to sell their houses. Stabilized or higher rents justify stabilized or higher prices for homes on the market. Not such good news for tenants who believed landlords were going to be giving away the store just to get their units rented.

    What is most interesting in this article is what is actually coming on the market. 80% of the new units are either studios or one bedroom apartments. Talk about a future mismatch when those single renters either marry and start having children, or wish to move to larger digs. What will not be available are two or three bedroom apartments to rent, moderately priced condos, or modest sized houses to buy. In the Seattle area – it is either live in very small apartments that are expensive, or very expensive condos or houses. There will be few moderately priced options for those seeking 2-3 bedrooms – either in a house or multi family residential unit. It will be interesting to see how all of this shakes out in the coming years……..

  163. 163

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 147
    Trump’s New Tax Laws Slowed My Tax Administration Down Too

    Next time it will be much easier knowing the changes. Its not just the deduction limits, small businesses now can now deduct 25% of their real estate business maintenance costs, they couldn’t before. That’s a big change for health care businesses running from SFHs, and all small businesses [apartments] for that matter…

    It changes in many ways…even tax folks are learning the ropes I imagine…

  164. 164
    Blurtman says:

    By Blake @ 150:

    but violence against Hispanics and immigrants is also rising… nice.

    Blake, could you please define your terms? That is, please describe “Hispanic.” Marco Rubio, a white descendant of European slave owners that had been in the New World for a century, is Hispanic. Do we all have to play along with the shame of the Mayans, where the term Indian is a pejorative in Central and South America, and use a floppy and bogus descriptive term, as you are doing, that seems to encompass people of every race. Can you please define? Thanks.

  165. 165
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 134

    Because their family has lived here for generations? Because their parents, Aunts, Uncles and cousins all live here and also have always made less than $100,000 and lived well on that until…?

    Are you really saying people who have always lived here should just get out because people from places far away came here and are making way more money and want their houses?

  166. 166
    N says:

    Re: Why would people with incomes below six figures move here — Beyond family, career progression and opportunities is a top reason. The opportunities to advance in both pay and position has been far greater here than most of the country for the last decade. Many of us didn’t come here with a big pay day but looking back 3-5 years later it’s paid off.

    Add in quality of life for many as well.

  167. 167
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 162

    Glancing at the numbers, it seems like about 10k apartment units rented out of about 18-20k units built and completed in the last 12 months. 50% uptake of product is not exactly stellar. Is the Seattle vacancy rate still10.5% as it was in Jan 2018?

    The whole statistical release reads like the wishful thinking of developers. Greater Seattle rented 3400 new units in 2019-Q1? That;s supposed to be “good”? The rest of the country must be doing really badly if this is the “best” one.

    In other words, just developer propaganda trying to plant the idea that you cannot or should not negotiate hard on rent. Balderdash. Negotiate the heck out of that lease.

  168. 168
    LuLu says:

    By Justme @ 167:

    RE: ess @ 162

    Glancing at the numbers, it seems like about 10k apartment units rented out of about 18-20k units built and completed in the last 12 months. 50% uptake of product is not exactly stellar. Is the Seattle vacancy rate still10.5% as it was in Jan 2018?

    The whole statistical release reads like the wishful thinking of developers. Greater Seattle rented 3400 new units in 2019-Q1? That;s supposed to be “good”? The rest of the country must be doing really badly if this is the “best” one.

    In other words, just developer propaganda trying to plant the idea that you cannot or should not negotiate hard on rent. Balderdash. Negotiate the heck out of that lease.

    That’s good for Seattle housing bubble. Have to move to SFH after child born and family growing.

  169. 169
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 165 – My comment really isn’t that difficult to understand. And as I clarified, I’m talking about the area based on it’s own merits, not whether you’re handcuffed to the place due to not wanting to leave family.

    But as always, a few Seattle cheerleaders pipe up on here and infer that Seattle is the only place in the United States that’s acceptable to live. Even for people who are struggling due to the high cost of living relative to all but a small handful of places around the country.

  170. 170
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 169

    Nothing about my comment would conjure up cheerleader images. Is that just a fall back answer to everything?

    The answer to anyone who can no longer afford to live here due to newcomer activity can’t be ” leave”. We talk incessantly about the homeless and 2 bedroom condos and apartments and 2 bedroom townhomes.

    The main problem is the 3 bedroom modest home people who have always lived here for generations who can’t afford to stay in the area. Too many people being forced out of where they are from.

  171. 171
    Eastsider says:

    By LuLu @ 168:

    That’s good for Seattle housing bubble. Have to move to SFH after child born and family growing.

    But they first need to get married and have children too LOL. Check out the city’s stats. In 1960, the number of families “Married couple with child” numbered 65,106. That number is projected to be 37,566 in 2020! Note that Seattle population has increased 50% in that time period. Based on your reasoning (@ess has been preaching the same nonsense), there will be an excess number of SFHs and prices should drop!

    http://clerk.seattle.gov/~ordpics/115018_Doc%203%20-%20Community%20Profile%20-%20Housing%20Market%20Analysis.htm

  172. 172
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 170 – This is all in response to post 133 from kenmorem. He/she is basically saying if you make less than a well paid tech worker, GTFO. I think this is an ugly statement said out of anger, but it actually is a valid idea. There really are other nice places to live besides the greater Seattle area. A few people on here get angry when anyone says that though, so I’ll duck and cover.

  173. 173
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 171 – Note the projection were done a while back but the trend is clear. Young adults are not getting married and having children.

  174. 174
    richard says:

    It is all about money. you need to pay more (and get paid more) to live here. simple.
    It is gentrification and financial segregation. Exclude super riches like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos,the following categories of people are qualified to live here
    1. people bought house early and who can still afford ever-increasing property tax.
    2. small business owners/lawyers/doctors/realtor and high-tech workers.
    3. rich Chinese
    Lower-tier wage earners (assume high-tech worker first tier)is not supposed to live here.
    Microsoft raise millions to support police and nurse in housing because they need people to SERVE them.
    That is what the City and REIC want. No offense, simple brutal truth.
    Low birth rate? low marriage rate? who cares? They only care about money.

  175. 175
    kenmorem says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 172:

    RE: ARDELL @ 170 – This is all in response to post 133 from kenmorem. He/she is basically saying if you make less than a well paid tech worker, GTFO. I think this is an ugly statement said out of anger, but it actually is a valid idea. There really are other nice places to live besides the greater Seattle area. A few people on here get angry when anyone says that though, so I’ll duck and cover.

    my point with this ugly statement was to highlight the ridiculousness of eastsider’s argument. suddenly, teacher salary was the going rate for which someone “should” be able to afford something here. tell that to people in london, paris, NYC, SF, beijing, etc. just because a place is expensive, doesn’t mean anything other than you probably end up a renter. if you would like to exercise the freedoms which have been bestowed upon you to either (1. find a way to make more money; 2. find a way to spend less money; 3. find a place that costs less and has a better COL for your “industry”), then do so. otherwise, suck it up, rent, and go on with life. there are clearly externalities that are providing you an undefined benefit (family, friends, mountains, sound, rain, no bugs, good summers) that you value and that are preventing you from moving to kansas city in SWE slums. if everything comes down to $$$, then move. if it comes down to the thousands of other factors in one’s life, then figure out if those are more important to you than $. just stop complaining that it’s too expensive.

  176. 176
    richard says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 175 – there are still ways to fight the system.
    1. you can refuse to buy and call for buyer strike.
    2.You can educate people why it is not a good idea to buy now. A forum like this is a good place , I know several people who do check this site for market trend. You can challenge the media. I like criticize Mr. Mike Rosenberg in his article comment section. These so called journalist will be more cautious and restraint in their brainwashing piece if they know their articles will be scrutinized and very likely be criticized and their credibility is at risk.

  177. 177
    Notme says:

    Landlords can move, too
    no need to greedbag right here
    landlord, rent thyself

    -a bubble haiku

  178. 178
    Demotivated Buyer says:

    RE: richard @ 176
    I for one would say following the majority recommendations in the comments section isn’t a great idea. Been following the comments since 2015. The house that sold for 600k+ then is 900k+ now. Eastside.
    Not kidding! I am kicking myself in the back for listening to what appeared to be *experts*. But it’s all my doing. Listening to anonymous people on the internet is never a good idea.

    Have you been to the open houses recently? Instead of a buyer’s strike I see last spring return in a full bloom. Open houses are too crowded again.

  179. 179
    Brian says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 173

    I think that trend may continue. But even though I’m single, I still want a SFH with a garage.

    Maybe there will be excess McMansions and it will be harder to find smaller houses.

  180. 180
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Demotivated Buyer @ 178 – BS. The comment section was dominated by housing ultra-bulls (see Kary L. Krismer’s 1.2 million posts) up until a few months ago. This is another fake account by someone who already posts here.

  181. 181
    richard says:

    RE: Demotivated Buyer @ 178
    I didn’t go to open house recently. I am on strike and i signed one year rental lease recently.
    I moved here in 2016 so i know the rapid price elevation you mentioned.

    I already live in a house (no much commute time, close to everything. if i stretch myself and buy now I can only buy a house like what I am renting now ). So living condition wise, i am already where i can be. My loss will be one year rental near 30K. so my bet is in one year, there will be some catalyst(recession for example) to shift the housing market further favoring buyers. if the house i live right now drop value somewhere between 30K and 150K(=30K down/20%). I am perfectly fine and renting is worth it.

    On the flip side, as you observed, if the price continue to be bid up. it will not be my game anymore and i refuse to be a part of it. Then i have to decide to be a renter forever or move out of this place. I think if the Chinese money is not there, the price ceiling is just a function of mortgage rate. I don’t know theoretically how low 30 year rate can be(anybody know? ). Let’s say if FED feel 4% is not enough to reinflate the market and go to extreme to 3%, then the house price surely will go to new high. But you know, there always a limit . For now, I will sit back to see how high the price can be inflated and stupid and greedy people compete to enter the debt trap.

  182. 182
    ess says:

    By Brian @ 179:

    RE: Eastsider @ 173

    I think that trend may continue. But even though I’m single, I still want a SFH with a garage.

    Maybe there will be excess McMansions and it will be harder to find smaller houses.

    According to some people, including council members of various cities who are pushing for density, only people with families want to live in single family houses. But as one who has been in the rental business for the last few decades, I have observed that the vast number of both interested parties who approach us and actual tenants who rent from us do not have children. They may be single individuals who never have been married, they may be couples that are living together or are married, or they singles or couples who had children who have left the nest. Lately it is has been groups of single individuals who form groups to rent the houses together. The common denominator with all those individuals is that they prefer residing in a single family house with some land around them. Not only is there parking on the premises, but they don’t have to deal with noisy neighbors on top of them residing in a concrete high rise without any vegetation and a view of another concrete high rise.

    That only young couples with children alone want to reside in single family houses is a misnomer. But families with children will also more out necessity require a single family house, especially as they discover more and more housing units are those tiny studio and one bedroom apartments in Seattle, as described in today’s Seattle Times article that was reference here before.

    Seattle has been losing children for years – those with children have and are presently moving to the suburbs. That is nothing new. It isn’t the Seattle market – it is the entire Puget Sound market, and presently the construction of those tiny little apartments in Seattle are geared towards single individuals, or couples that can tolerate each other in small spaces, not families with children. The problem is that the construction of small single family houses in the Puget Sound area, due to a variety of factors is a thing of the past. Thus the number and percentage of “starter” homes – modest size houses that many can afford is declining both as a percentage of the whole, and in real numbers, as they often are knocked down to make way for those “McMansions”. So you are correct – there will be more competition for those small houses by those who want the single family house experience, but can’t afford the “McMansion”.

  183. 183
    Demotivated Buyer says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 180
    Nope. I specifically asked the question to buy or not. I even remember Kary responding by saying asking for advice from strangers on the internet is not a good strategy.

  184. 184
    Blake says:

    By Blurtman @ 164:

    By Blake @ 150:

    but violence against Hispanics and immigrants is also rising… nice.

    Blake, could you please define your terms? That is, please describe “Hispanic.” …
    … Can you please define? Thanks.

    Sure.
    Hispanic,
    noun
    1. a Spanish-speaking person living in the US, especially one of Latin American descent.

  185. 185
    Erik says:

    RE: Demotivated Buyer @ 178
    I told everyone to buy. Houses are a good deal right now, especially north of Seattle and South of Seattle. Condos in the city are probably at a top. Buy a house in the puget sound and sell before 4 years and you’ll most likely make money. My favorite product is condos in the city, but I’m changing it up because lots of inventory is coming for that asset class.

    Buy somewhere cheap like Lynwood up north or burien down south. Both cities are cheap and are in commuting distance to Seattle. Both cities are scuzzy, but not total scuzz holes like Everett. They will get better and property values will go up. Then when condo values in the city finally go down 1031 exchange for some condos in the city and hold them for life.

    I’m currently selling a couple condos in the city and buying a house up north. I want to have cash in hand when prices go down so I can buy more condos in the city.

  186. 186
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 169
    Move to Everett and claim you live in Seattle. That’s what the other poor people in the puget sound do.

  187. 187
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Blake @ 184 – Thanks. So are you expecting violence directed towards Antonio Banderas and Mitt Romney?

  188. 188
    ess says:

    RE: Erik @ 185

    Erik – you should check out the real estate activity in Lynnwood – some of the newer neighborhoods are quite nice, and the house prices reflect it. Perhaps not Seattle, Mercer Island, or Bellevue, but the 250,000 dollar three bedroom house in Lynnwood is a thing of the past. Even better- Lynnwood now has a Chik – Fillet!!

  189. 189

    RE: Steve @ 158
    I Wish Steve Would Learn to Contribute Some Ideas For Once

    His blogs are empty and just derogatory.

  190. 190

    That Listing in Kent I Sent Out Last Week for the $350K SFH

    Must of sold for about $365K, it was pending, but apparently sold at $15K over asking price. The realtor said it was grabbed up in 4 days….try about 4 weeks after pending…but it sold.

    There was a forced moving [fore closure?] vacancy at my Glenbrook HOA….they’re selling all the household stuff…no listing visible at HOA. Its likely bank owned now, hey, you folks asked about buying in Glenbrook….just drive to the mail kiosk and get the estate sale address [I didn’t write it down]….look up which bank has the deed and negotiate directly with the bank VP and/or owner. It may take about $200-250K in $CASH$ if its not pre-approved mortgage loan capable yet? The detective finds the lower tier homes in Seattle…

  191. 191

    RE: Erik @ 186
    Hey Erik Everett’s My Old Tromping Ground

    Cascaded High School and Herfy’s and the “Gut” [Where we all met and drove our muscle cars back and forth]….what’s wrong with Everett? Back then, Everett was attracting folks from Seattle….LOL…but they shut the “Gut” down and Herfy’s lost its charm…now we have video games and iPhones replacing socialization and fun?

  192. 192

    RE: Blurtman @ 164
    The CIA Website Defines Hispanic or Latino

    As not an ethnic group….its European Spanish interbreeding with Aztecs and Mayans [assuming the Mayans just didn’t disappear mysteriously per archeological evidence]…but Mexican area Indians and Spaniards are Latino…its a mixed breed, not a separate ethic group according to the CIA.

  193. 193
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition.

    The graphs compare 2017-2019 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year, a fact that was much ballyhooed by the sell-side and inflation-mongers of the property market. But the shoe is now on the other foot. Combine the increase in inventory with a much more realistic criterion that 1month worth of active inventory is all that is needed for a “balanced market”, the property market has shifted radically since March 2018 and continues to do so in 2019. Click the link and scroll to see the graphs. Click on each graph for an enlarged view. ESC and scroll to navigate.

    https://imgur.com/a/T7a7rKx

    2019-04-20 King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-04-20 King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-04-20 King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017
    2019-04-20 King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017

    Commentary: This week is the week of Easter, and one would expect listing activity to be subdued. In fact, looking at 2017 and 2018, inventory dropped down during Easter week (due to new pendings) and then stayed pretty flat for another week because fewer sellers released new listings (and fewer held open houses) due to the holidays. But 2019 is different: The active listing count bounced right back up again, reand reached 3800 for SFH on Fri night, past the peak level seen the week before. I thus fully expect the general trend to resume next week, with product sales in no way keeping up with new listings arriving, and >4wk old listings languishing on the market. There is little doubt that the bubble-bust is in full swing. There are lots of sellers, but not enough willing buyers at the prices being offered. Many buyers are on strike, refusing to buy at currently offered prices. Sellers have gone from “I think I’ll wait another year” to “Better get my house on the market before it is too late”, even if it is Easter. But many sellers are still over-pricing the market by a significant amount, and their product is languishing.

    I posted a product absorption/uptake analysis from Weds earlier in the week. Absorption of product continues to be low at a below 50% pending rate within 4 weeks of market exposure. That pesky buyer strike, again.

    NOTE: Easter eve was on 2019-04-20 and 2018-04-01 and 2017-04-15.

  194. 194
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 167:

    The whole statistical release reads like the wishful thinking of developers. Greater Seattle rented 3400 new units in 2019-Q1? That;s supposed to be “good”? The rest of the country must be doing really badly if this is the “best” one.

    Whoa! Per Justme, net migration for a whole year is under 6,000, and natural increase doesn’t count. Yet there were 3400 units rented in one quarter? Maybe babies don’t buy, but they do rent?

  195. 195

    Stable Retirement Planning Is Linked to Unsustainable Real Estate Debt

    Most of us can’t afford both in the NWO of low wages with high housing and taxes with OVERPOPULATION costs.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/2a9cfea2-3dd6-38f9-af9a-d104af11da6b/baby-boomers-commit-the-%277.html

    But even the tiny 10% of the Baby Boomers prepared for retirement have like $500K in wealth [I assume that includes their real estate wealth too]…even $500K $CASH$ only is about $2500/mo gross for 20 years….that barely covers property tax, income tax, sales tax, food, insurances and home maintenance, etc…let alone care giving. I know, immigrate to Central America to retire where money stretches….LOL

  196. 196

    RE: Justme @ 193
    Easter and 420 Day, As Well as Earthday (4/22)

    Occur this weekend, we’re all out eating Easter eggs, smoking pot and hugging trees together smiling ….let’s PARTAY! Who needs dull real estate planning this weekend…;-)

  197. 197
    Notme says:

    Easter bunnies smoke
    who needs real estate today?
    one thing sure, not me!

    -a bubble haiku

  198. 198
    Realistic says:

    RE: Justme @ 193
    The SFH chart indeed looks as if sellers did not care about the holiday weekend this time, on the contrary to previous years. Do you find it odd that the condo inventory doesn’t follow the general SFH trend and has been much flatter for the last 1.5 weeks?

    And what is the difference between alignment by date and by weekday in the ratio charts?

  199. 199
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 185 – Ask the Tim how he likes Everett. Hey Tim! How is Everett. You tell us what you are seeing on the ground. THANKS

  200. 200
    Deerhawke says:

    By Demotivated Buyer @ 178:

    RE: richard @ 176
    I for one would say following the majority recommendations in the comments section isn’t a great idea. Been following the comments since 2015. The house that sold for 600k+ then is 900k+ now. Eastside.
    Not kidding! I am kicking myself in the back for listening to what appeared to be *experts*. But it’s all my doing. Listening to anonymous people on the internet is never a good idea.

    My suggestion is that you listen to those who seem to have the most real world experience and don’t have an axe to grind. Know your own biases (such as “real estate should fall” or “real estate should rise”) and factor that in.

    Ultimately the price of real estate is a function of supply and demand. Look hard at what the factors of demand are. Look hard at what the factors of supply are.

    This is all basic economics. Read and believe those who have the best data and best track record.

  201. 201
    Deerhawke says:

    By Demotivated Buyer @ 178:

    RE: richard @ 176
    Have you been to the open houses recently? Instead of a buyer’s strike I see last spring return in a full bloom. Open houses are too crowded again.

    In the areas where I build (most of 705 and 710 — bounded by the cut/Lake Union, Lake Washington, the Sound and 85th Street) open house activity dropped off in April of last year and stayed pretty quiet all the rest of the year. Better houses in better neighborhoods still sold, but often at a 3-8 percent discount. Rowhouses and townhouses mainly sat and saw substantial reductions.

    In January, that really turned around. Open houses started fairly strong and got stronger. By March, sellers were sensing that the market was moving in their favor. Two builders I knew with houses ready for the market increased their proforma price, one by $50K and the other by $100K — and they both got most of it.

    I mainly agree with you, but do not think it is crazy as late 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. At that point, even garbage was being bid up. Now garbage or me-too product sits longer and gets bid down.
    When I see a multiple offer situation, it is for something that is attractive, well designed and distinctive.

    I am not trying to discourage you further, but to give you an idea of what is happening out there in the real world. Best of luck.

  202. 202
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 201 – the low mortgage rate revived the market. you and you r builder buddy should thank jerome powell.

  203. 203
    richard says:

    supply and demand is an over simplified story for seattle market. most often it is used as an justification for high price. i would be cautious to this theory. first, you should be clear what supply and demand you are talking about, house? sure, house is in short supply even now. for example, majority listing house price is over 1m in bellevue, it is essentially no supply for me. the most important supply and demand is actually money, which someone avoid talking about it since it is the most important reason other than chinese money to make price so high. we have aboundant supply of money you can BORROW! limited house supply and abounant borrowed money is the real story here. over simplified story for simple minded person.

  204. 204
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 200 – It is not simply supply and demand. It is also affordability. It doesn’t matter how badly the masses want to buy a house (demand) if they can’t afford it at ever increasing prices. Prices are limited by affordability. This is why even with great demand and little supply, prices are still constrained.

    This is case in point why it is dangerous to take advice from random people on the internet. Deerhawke’s simplistic analysis is missing a key factor and would lead you astray.

  205. 205
    Eastsider says:

    By Demotivated Buyer @ 178:

    I for one would say following the majority recommendations in the comments section isn’t a great idea. Been following the comments since 2015. The house that sold for 600k+ then is 900k+ now. Eastside.
    Not kidding! I am kicking myself in the back for listening to what appeared to be *experts*. But it’s all my doing. Listening to anonymous people on the internet is never a good idea.

    This is a ridiculous comment. Nobody in 2015 knew where the market would be in 2018. Both bull and bear arguments made then were plausible. There is no reason to be upset. Otherwise, you will be kicking yourself again in 3 years if the market moves in the opposite direction.

  206. 206
    Eastsider says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 204
    +1.

    Real estate prices in NYC, London, Vancouver, San Francisco are out of reach for working families. Seattle is heading that way. If you can’t afford it, don’t buy. Otherwise, you are making a potentially runious financial decision.

  207. 207
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 206 -Yes, on an individual basis buying at the margin of affordability can put you in financial distress.

    Also, on an overall market basis, affordability keeps prices from going to the moon. This is why saying price is simply a function of supply and demand is not true. The “demand” portion of that equation is demand at a given price. For example there may be demand for a particular home at $500K, but zero demand at $600K.

    When prices reach the maximum that buyers are able or willing to pay, prices stop rising. This is what happened around May of 2018.

  208. 208
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Demotivated Buyer @ 178
    RE: justsomedude12 @ 207

    Everyone should realize that the affordability argument when referring to housing is usually more normative than descriptive and predictive. We may want housing to be more affordable. We may think it is right that housing become more affordable. We can shake our fists and curse the providers of housing to demand that housing become more affordable. But that does not mean it will, indeed, become more affordable.

    Go back and look at entries in this blog from 2012 onward. As supply (inventory) dropped and demand from new entrants to the market surged, prices rose dramatically. Those who pushed the affordability argument kept saying over and over that a lack of affordability was going to limit price increases or augur a drastic drop in market prices.

    And what happened?

    Affordability is a loose concept that changes over time. In the 50’s the concept included only one male parent in a household working. By the 70’s that notion was seen as quaint and rather sexist. Unless one member of the household was a highly paid professional, of course you needed two income earners to afford a house.

    The definition of affordability also includes some racial stereotypes and taboos. When I first moved to Seattle in the early 90’s, a house in the Central District was 20% of the price in Wallingford, but who, c’mon now, who really (wink, wink) would live there!?

    We all have to question what cultural, historical and other factors go into our own definition of affordability. A friend bought a place in Burien. Standard 1950s 3 bedroom 1 bath house in pretty good condition (but still a fixer) on a big lot with a 3 car detached garage. He can get to downtown as fast as I can from Greenlake. $425K. He found his affordable solution.

    What about all the areas along light rail south of the city? South Beacon Hill, Hillman City, Rainier Beach. In 5 or 10 years, people will be saying how those areas –used to be– affordable. Look at it that way and your definition of affordability may change.

  209. 209
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 208 – come on ,last year, near 5% rate almost kills the market. affordability is not a loose concept. not many people can afford to buy if rate goes to 6% tomorrow.

  210. 210
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 208 – I’m not making a moral commentary on affordability, as in it’s a shame housing around here isn’t more affordable.

    I’m pointing out that affordability does act as a ceiling on home prices. A few on here believe that with low supply and high demand prices will automatically return to the days of double digit annual increases. This is faulty logic devoid of a key factor.

    On another note, a couple times you’ve mentioned the move from one income households to two income households. This is a good point, and another factor that has contributed to the rise in home prices over the years, but will not continue. Over the years two incomes have become baked into home prices. This tailwind (adding additional household incomes) no longer exists, unless we move to three income households.

    On yet another note, as Richard mentioned RE prices can’t even withstand mortgage rates of 5.5%, which historically speaking is still incredibly low.

    And tech hiring around here isn’t going to be even close to the same level for the next several years as it was for the last several years.

    I’m not saying we’re in for another 2008 style crash. I’m saying the tailwinds that drove prices up just aren’t there anymore.

    BTW – kudos for a genuine response instead of dishing out cheap shots and insults, the way a few on here prefer to play it.

  211. 211
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 208 – Price surge from 2012 onwards was not a Seattle phenomenon, it happened nationwide. Sure Seattle had Chinese and tech cash. But even those factors were a result of FED’s monetary policy.

    IMHO prices have reached limits in housing, healthcare, education, consumer credit in recent decades largely due to financializations. If we had not ‘subsidized’ (financialized) any of these areas, prices would still be ‘affordable’ today.

  212. 212
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 208

    What about all the areas along light rail south of the city? South Beacon Hill, Hillman City, Rainier Beach. In 5 or 10 years, people will be saying how those areas –used to be– affordable. Look at it that way and your definition of affordability may change.

    ——————————————————————————————————————————-

    Not only must one add all the recent factors that affect housing “affordability” in the Puget Sound area such as the Growth Management Act, other government mandates, population increases, shortage of workers in the construction field that put upward pressures on wages, but good old inflation.

    Inflation has an amazing corrosive effect on the value of the dollar. The US has had a benign inflation rate for quite a period of time, thus many individuals, especially those younger individuals in the residential market for the first don’t consider that a factor. They did not experience the 1980s, when the US had a serious inflation problem.

    Government economists indicate that the targeted rate of inflation should be two percent. Even at two percent, the buying power of the dollar seriously erodes over time. And in the future if there is a higher rate of inflation due to other factors, as there has in the past, the dollar’s buying power will erode even greater. And that erosion will be felt in large ticket items, such as residential purchases.

    With inflation, the definition of affordability for almost everything changes over time. Forty five years ago one could purchase a residence in many Seattle neighborhoods for thirty thousand dollars or less. That is what many pay for a new automobile in 2019. Ask most people in the 1970s if they thought the price of a new car forty five years later would have been thirty thousand dollars, or that the cost of a house in Seattle would be north of half a million dollars, and they would have dismissed that notion as fantasy. Back then, an “affordable” house in Seattle was probably in the twenty thousand dollar range. And for many, that price was not affordable. Add some other factors as mentioned above with inflation, and here we all are where the million dollar house in Seattle is becoming more and more common.

    The chart below is instructional insofar as one can track inflation over periods of time to observe this erosion of buying power that will impact upon housing, and almost everything else.

    https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator

  213. 213

    RE: Realistic @ 198
    Its Hard or Impossible to Audit

    What the past owner or HOA did right on home maintenance over the decades….condos “generally” get destroyed in about 10-15 years, rebuilt in about 20; or turned into slumlord apartments…

    The building inspectors don’t x-ray walls and structures for old earthquake cracking and bug rot…its masked with plastic filler and paint. Another good reason to do your own maintenance.

  214. 214
    Justme says:

    It’s very easy to make houses more affordable: Just stop buying them. Just refuse. It’s been working great since April 2018. Just keep doing that and everything will work out fine.

  215. 215

    RE: ess @ 212
    Good Old Inflation is Like 0%

    If its anything like $CASH$ in the bank the last decade. Mortgage rates at 3-4% destroyed good old inflation. I see, somehow houses, gas and food don’t affect the COLA anymore? Its so mixed up now, and the shift from burger flipping wages to real wages needs experienced skilled workers, not just words or hopes….maybe if we see technical/mechanical skill public high schools created to train this paradigm it can change, but its gonna be 5-10 years to get America trained again in decent paid skills again. We need skills/experience to get higher wages and not “quickly learned” [without degree] warehouse work or S/W randomization [trial and error] jobs…real manufacturing engineering “scientific” high paid American jobs cutting real metal.

    Outsourcing has been a joke [737, 787, MSFT VISTA, etc, etc], its time to replace subpar foreign labor with innovative American skills again…the NWO has failed.

  216. 216

    RE: Justme @ 214
    Better Yet, Teach Buyers the Amortization Math on Loans

    Budgeting is becoming buy a house, then try to survive on what’s left…how about survive on a budget first, then buy a house after you accomplished that and don’t replace your budget plans with buy a house?

  217. 217
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: richard @ 209

    The problem right now is that the world economy is dealing with the problem of low growth and deflation. When interest rates were increased to ward off inflation (really the specter of inflation rather than the reality of inflation) growth stalled much more than expected. The real estate market was affected (nationally and locally) but the stock market tanked. Q4 portfolio statements were all red ink.

    There have been a lot written on this in economic journals, but this article in the NY Times articulates the problem really clearly.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/upshot/world-economy-low-growth-low-interest-deflation.html

    If you believe this is the environment we are now entering, then relatively low interest rates are here for the next few years.

  218. 218
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 210

    I don’t recall anyone (myself included) predicting the first round of double digit increases. I also don’t recall anyone predicting that “with low supply and high demand prices will automatically return to the days of double digit annual increases.” Honestly isn’t that a strawman argument?

    I was a bull from late-2010 onwards and started building for the late 2011 market. From that point onward I was always pretty bullish on the fundamentals of the Seattle market. I still am bullish short and long term, although I am really on the lookout for a pullback during a national recession in the medium term. But annual price growth beyond 4 or 5% is extraordinary.

  219. 219
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 210

    On another note, a couple times you’ve mentioned the move from one income households to two income households. This is a good point, and another factor that has contributed to the rise in home prices over the years, but will not continue. Over the years two incomes have become baked into home prices. This tailwind (adding additional household incomes) no longer exists, unless we move to three income households.

    How about 4 or more? I think co-housing a real alternative.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-friends-joined-forces-to-reach-their-homeowner-dreams/

    I know of a couple of co-housing projects like this in Beacon Hill, Georgetown and South Park.

    My 26-year-old son has a friend who got an inheritance and used it as the downpayment to buy a house in Greenlake. But he didn’t have enough income for the monthly payments so he rented out 3 bedrooms to friends from school. They are having a blast. It is another example of millenial co-housing except all the gains (as well as the responsibility for maintenance costs) goes to his friend.

  220. 220
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 219

    Gee golly, why did your son not help out his friend and sell him one of his father’s half-for-the-price-of-two Teardown Taj-Mahal specials? Does the friend totally lack in social ambition? It’s just not very executive to buy some regular mossbox and shack up with his friends.

  221. 221
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Justme @ 220

    I understand how sometimes you feel like people don’t consider your point of view on here, and a lot of the time I think you’re right, but was this comment really called for?

  222. 222
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 221 – Well, Deerhawke has dished out plenty towards Justme over the years.

  223. 223
    sfrz says:

    “If you want to keep a secret, you must also hide it from yourself.”
    ― George Orwell, 1984

    “Since the release of Eric Johnson’s documentary Seattle Is Dying, which depicts an epidemic of street homelessness, addiction, crime, and disorder, city elites have launched a coordinated information campaign targeted at voters frustrated with the city’s response to homelessness. Earlier this month, leaked documents revealed that a group of prominent nonprofits—the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Campion Advocacy Fund, the Raikes Foundation, and the Ballmer Group—hired a PR firm, Pyramid Communications, to conduct polling, create messaging, and disseminate the resulting content through a network of silent partners in academia, the press, government, and the nonprofit sector. The campaign, #SeattleForAll, is a case study in what writer James Lindsay calls “idea laundering”—creating misinformation and legitimizing it as objective truth through repetition in sympathetic media.” https://www.city-journal.org/seattleforall-campaign

  224. 224
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: sfrz @ 223

    Clearly the Seattle Times Editorial Page isnt drinking their Kool-Aid and is calling for a common-sense approach.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/seattles-persistent-crime-problem-demands-change/

    David Horsey’s cartoon/editorial is also blunt and to the point.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/david-horsey-on-the-safety-of-seattle-streets/

  225. 225

    RE: whatsmyname @ 194
    And The Golden Trophy Award to the Fastest Growing Population City is Trump Oil City

    Dallas….doesn’t surprise me, the shale should be making profit now at $60+/bbl…the Iran Sanctions are forcing oil back up in price they say…

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/dallas-area-leads-american-cities-2018-population-growth-175123660.html

    Lots of California License plates in Texas now I assume, lower taxes and high paying jobs are the perfect storm for real estate price demand. Some Wash St plates too, I imagine….LOL

  226. 226

    RE: Erik @ 140
    Oh My Gosh Erik and SWE are Wearing Deplorable Red MAGA Hats

    The insane Open Border Party (OBP) mob are coming at us now with proverbial baseball bats? LOL

    Attack children with Indian drums on CNN and attack Senator’s Freedom of Speech….both these type of attacks are potentially costing CNN Open Border Party (OBP) $0.25B for each lawsuit from the 15 YO Trump supporter and Rep Nunes is suing MSM for a quarter of a billion too. MAGA Harassment risks against the innocent folks wearing MAGA hats is quite costly now, time to be normal and peace loving again.

  227. 227

    RE: Deerhawke @ 224
    Deerhawke:

    Good link and I tried opening it but its somewhat useless, as Seattle Times is “pay per view” now [when did that happen?]…I’ve learned to check for “pay per view” URLs and delete them from the comments recently.

    Avoid Seattle Times blogging now?

  228. 228

    RE: Justme @ 220
    Justme, Do You Have Milenials in the Family Tree or Are You a Milenial?

    The Milenials need handouts to survive all over America ….the Baby Boomers do too. IOWs every case is personal and yes, my Milenial uses me for emergency $CASH$ too, and I give it gladly. The result is they hate taking it from me and rarely do now…LOL

    Who would think? The parents better be rich…that Greenlake is 1920 Museum Piece Money Pit area.

  229. 229

    RE: Blake @ 155
    Read Some Dean Koontz lately….they use 4X4 heavy duty vehicles and simply drive the human trafficking sex slaves [some of the Central American prostitutes go to Seattle massage parlors?] right through the gaps in the WALL and tons of heroine into America to mix into the opioid epidemic and needles trashed all over the place along the coasts….but its not an humanitarian crisis or emergency?

    Trump manufactured the whole thing…and WALLs won’t keep crime out anyway, then the Open Border Party (OBP) rich elite waste their money building walls to keep crime out…LOL….the search engine on Google is useless on this WALL topic BTW, try it. Its definitely rigged to stop the WALL politics with lame brain opinion and no data, except its getting worse and its a crisis…

  230. 230

    RE: softwarengineer @ 225
    Iran Sanctions Causing $5/gal Gas in CA

    I’ve seen $4/gal gas in Seattle lately too….mix your driving with stuck in parking lot forever and MPG on all cars drops to zero too…hey the $20 one way Sounder commute tickets sound affordable now….LOL

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/energy-prices-up-on-reported-end-to-sanctions-waiver-for-iranian-oil.html

    This will drive food, plastic and house materials up through the roof in price too…but the COLA is 2-3%…LOL…we especially need more taxes and unlimited chain immigration to solve this problem or make it FAR worse? I’ll let you folks figure it out, you already know my opinion anyway….LOL.

  231. 231
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By Deerhawke @ 218:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 210

    I don’t recall anyone (myself included) predicting the first round of double digit increases. I also don’t recall anyone predicting that “with low supply and high demand prices will automatically return to the days of double digit annual increases.” Honestly isn’t that a strawman argument?

    A couple people on here have said that the price drops since May 2018 are an aberration and a temporary blip, and the price gains of the previous few years will resume. Although I don’t think anyone has made those comments for a couple months now, so maybe they’ve realized this isn’t going to happen.

  232. 232

    RE: kenmorem @ 127
    Haven’t Ya Heard?

    Covington City Council alleges we make like $100K Per household Average

    They got their raw data from the Mother Goose Fairy Tale book…

  233. 233
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 228 Oops, accidental post.

  234. 234

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 231
    Good Point

    Opinions differ like personal habits, but just the raw data facts and a brain is a great way to snarl through the contradictions. I’d say anything can happen in the future except a Recession against the rich elite welfare, that is happening right now. check the top 20% Trump tax tables impact on their tax increases. The Open Border Party (OBP) keg-er has gone dry for the OBP rich elite beer guzzling…time to sober up. Time for income redistribution to majority voters and all incomes.

  235. 235
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 193

    It’s fascinating how the recent drop in interest rates has not slowed the increase in inventory buildup. This is NOT a good sign for the Seattle RE market. I think there was a brief pause, or maybe even a dead-cat bounce, in the price decline trend, but the downward trend remains firmly in place. Now that the dead-cat bounce in stocks looks to be over, fueled by a corporate earnings decline about 10% in the tech industary, it looks like the Seattle RE decline could pick up some new steam from here.

  236. 236

    RE: sfrz @ 223
    Yes sfrz

    George Orwell’s 1984 used to be required reading in high school English, but they replaced 1984 with “To Kill a Mockingbird” [IMO, a boring court case movie with a convoluted plot in comparison]. Mockingbird was relevant to the race crisis in the 1960s, but doesn’t address Fascism control of Freedom of Speech like Orwell. Bring 1984 back into public school high school English again. They took OVERPOPULATION out of public school World History too, Sierra Club and Numbersusa don’t accept OVERPOPULATION as a root cause to Climate Change either. FAIR Immigration Reform does though and I’m a major blogger on that Wash DC website too.

  237. 237

    RE: Joe @ 235
    Good Point Joe

    With old pension money drying up with elimination of pensions and health care at work, the inheritance is simultaneously drying up too. Have you ever heard of the surviving member getting $100Ks of dollars willed to them and they blow it all in less than a year? I have. Its pis_ed all away in no time by incompetent planning.

    I’ll be honest too, my Milenial family tree live in my KS rental, but I keep it out of their name to prevent possible liens…they agree with me too and are trying to learn the ropes. Why didn’t public schools teach them anything useful? I’m teaching them anyway later on in life, but doing it for their future success.

  238. 238
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 235:

    It’s fascinating how the recent drop in interest rates has not slowed the increase in inventory buildup. This is NOT a good sign for the Seattle RE market.

    Actually, inventory has been building slower than last year (percentage wise and also by number of SFH).

    Per the tracker in the sidebar…
    YTD inventory growth through 4th Monday in April:
    2018: Inventory up ~60% (roughly +750 SFH)
    2019: Inventory up ~12% (roughly +350 SFH)

    Justme’s comparisons to 2018 have looked less and less dramatic as we have exited the ALL TIME LOWS of Jan/Feb/March 2018.

    YOY SFH Inventory Comparisons (roughly):

    12/31/18: +150%
    1/15/19: +130%
    1/31/19: +120%
    2/15/19: +100%
    2/28/19: +100%
    3/15/19: +80%
    3/31/19: +80%
    4/15/19: +75%
    4/22/19: +65%

    Will we have another build in inventory as we head into summer? Maybe. Not sure it’s trending that way.

  239. 239
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 238:

    Justme’s comparisons to 2018 have looked less and less dramatic as we have exited the ALL TIME LOWS of Jan/Feb/March 2018.

    OTOH, YoY price decline headlines will be gaining momentum/attention in coming months. LOL.

  240. 240
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 239:

    OTOH, YoY price decline headlines will be gaining momentum/attention in coming months. LOL.

    Very likely. At least for a few months.

  241. 241
    Joe says:

    RE: uwp @ 238

    Are you telling me inventory is still growing at a 65% clip even though the inventory has ALREADY risen more than 100% off the bottom? I guess I didn’t recognize inventory was growing that fast. More units are coming on line now than were coming on line in 2017 or 2018, and a recession hasn’t even started yet.

  242. 242
    Joe says:

    RE: uwp @ 238

    Also, your numbers are wrong.

  243. 243
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 142
    I will take that advice. I was completely ignorant last collapse, but I did respond well after I figured out what was going on. I was able to go from ground zero to having a little to invest. I am nowhere near your skill and experience though.

    Honestly, I don’t watch the news. I work in manufacturing, and I like the jobs trump is bringing back to us. I wouldn’t really say I’m strongly republican or strongly democratic.

    Do keep commenting on here. I always read your comments as I find you most knowledgeable.

  244. 244
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 203
    I agree with deerhawk on this one. Affordability has a loose correlation at best with housing prices.

  245. 245
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 241:

    I guess I didn’t recognize inventory was growing that fast.

    I guess I didn’t realize when you said, “the recent drop in interest rates has not slowed the increase in inventory buildup,” you actually didn’t understand what “slowed” meant.

    But no worries, I am here to help you!

    Per March NWMLS stats we are currently at the 14th highest standing inventory for SFH in the last 20 years (ie. below average). There is about half has much inventory in March 2019 as March 2007. We are 4x closer to the all time low inventory mark of Jan 2018 as the all time high.

  246. 246
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 245

    And yet, after 4 weeks on the market, less than half the properties being offered have managed to go pending. Yes, buyer strike against overpriced offerings.

  247. 247
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 238
    RE: Joe @ 241

    Dear potential buyer: As Joe has already said, the “rough” numbers generated by uwp are rough rubbish. Just for starters, the correct value for 2019-04-22 YoY is over 86%, not 65%. The problem is that uwp does not care about the truth. It is all a propaganda, and getting more desperate by the week.

    By the way, if you want to see how King County inventory is developing, look at my weekly graph postings. The latest one is at https://imgur.com/a/T7a7rKx , and I also have recently tried to post some on twitter.

  248. 248
    Blake says:

    RE: Justme @ 247
    I was looking at your graphs JustMe and – as a data geek – I was about to remind you to always use a y-axis that starts at zero. Then I looked more closely and those y-axes do start at zero! Yowza… inventory is skyrocketing!

    Inventory was so LOW the last few years that I’d expect a lot of pent up demand waiting for more houses to choose from…. so sales would pop up as well!??
    Nope…

    This was from Tim’s April 8th post:
    Inventory 3,277, Inventory YOY +94.3%
    Closed Sales 1,784, Sales YOY -5.3%
    King County still has some of the most dramatic changes, as the only county with a drop in the median price and by far the biggest increase in active listings. That said, active listings are up and closed sales are down across the board.
    (end quote)

    Unless there is suddenly an big rise in sales, we are indeed at an inflection point. It doesn’t take much, as a slight drop in prices can convince MANY potential buyers to not buy now and wait… especially since they all know what happened in 2008!

  249. 249
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 247:

    It is all a propaganda, and getting more desperate by the week.

    Yes. You caught me. I desperately want Seattle houses to get 5-10% more expensive each year.

    I would be absolutely devastated if that gorgeous 4br/2ba craftsman near Greenlake fell into our price range. I’m crying just thinking about it. I don’t know how I would sign the paperwork through all the tears.

  250. 250
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: uwp @ 249 – All of your comments are either bullish, or mocking people who aren’t bullish.

    Don’t be ashamed to be a Bull, embrace it!!

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