Cheapest parts of King County still make up the largest share of sales, even as prices there grow the most

Get unlimited access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, and support the ongoing work of this site by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.

It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end regions.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

  • low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
  • mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
  • high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

  • low end: $379,000-$593,750
  • mid range: $615,000-$1,090,000
  • high end: $814,037-$2,586,183

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area

The last few years have each followed a similar pattern: while sales in the mid-range regions maintain a fairly steady share of sales in the county each month, sales in the cheaper parts of the county (South King) surge in the winter and dip in the summer, with sales in the most expensive parts (Eastside) doing the opposite. Except for a big spike in Seattle in February, so far we’re seeing the same pattern this year.

The raw number of sales in all three tiers increased between February and March. Month-over-month sales were up 35 percent in the low tier, up six percent in the middle tier, and up 42 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased five percent in the low tier, fell seven percent in the middle tier, and dropped four percent in the high tier.

As of March 2019, 37.9 percent of sales were in the low end regions (basically flat from 37.8 percent a year ago), 32.0 percent in the mid range (down slightly from 32.6 percent a year ago), and 30.1 percent in the high end (up from 29.6 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area since 2000

During the housing bubble that burst in 2008, South King consistently had the largest share of sales. We’ve seen the same thing over the last few years as prices have once again grown to astronomical levels. In the lead-up to the big 2008 bust, sales in South King fell as sales in Seattle gained ground. February’s spike in Seattle’s sales share could be a portent of a similar pattern, or it could just be a blip. We’ll see over the next few months.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Median Price of Single Family Homes Sold

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but only the low tier is currently at an all-time record high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose three percent, the middle tier increased eight percent, and the high tier gained nine percent.

Eighteen of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in March had a higher median price than a year ago, while 23 had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 5.2 percent, middle tier: up 0.1 percent, high tier: down 4.7 percent.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,162 comments:

  1. 501
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 498 – Would you have said this same thing ten years ago? Five years ago? One year ago? These three time periods produced very different results for average annual price changes than your thesis.

    Your logic has some truth over long periods of time like say 20-30 years. But right or wrong, most of the discussion on here is geared more towards what will prices be a couple/few years from now, not 20 years from now. 20 years from now will home prices be higher? Sure, but so will everything else…wages, stock market, other life expenses.

  2. 502
    Droppingby says:

    RE: uwp @ 499 – interesting how you fail to mention the YOY stats, which tell a different tale. Prices are clearly going down.

  3. 503
    Deerhawke says:

    Seattle Times article is out. The writer really doesnt have enough background to make sense. He sounds like the Coffee Achievers which used to be lampooned as “Coffee– picks you down, calms you up.”

    Clearly Mike Rosenberg would have done a better job but he has other things preoccupying him right now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/homebuyers-get-some-good-news-as-inventory-grows-and-prices-cool/

  4. 504
    sfrz says:

    Thank you The Tim @the_Tim for your stance against this type of behavior. Bye Rosenberg.
    New position open at Seattle Times.
    What’s that sound? It’s the whooshing sound of the wings of stupidity and hubris carrying your career and family away.
    “According to the messages, Rosenberg attempted to negotiate the situation with Jane, confessing that he was “f****ng miserable” and that “really, anything, I can do I would.” She then asked him to delete his Twitter account so that he would no longer have the option of “engaging in predatory behavior from behind the safety of a screen.” Rosenberg, however, said he feared losing his job and wife.”
    https://crosscut.com/2019/05/seattle-times-suspends-reporter-accused-sending-sexually-harassing-messages

  5. 505
    Deerhawke says:

    I am hoping The Tim can update his information relatively soon. His charts really tell the story so clearly.
    In the meantime, for those interested in the recaps and breakouts,

    Recaps
    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/Recaps.pdf

    King County Breakouts
    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf

    Snohomish County Breakouts
    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/SCBreakouts.pdf

  6. 506
  7. 507
    uwp says:

    By Droppingby @ 502:

    RE: uwp @ 499 – interesting how you fail to mention the YOY stats, which tell a different tale. Prices are clearly going down.

    I don’t care too much about what prices were like last April. I do care about what the market looks like right now, and how it is trending.

    But if you would like to look at years past, here are some NWMLS King County SFH facts:

    Pending sales for April 2019 were higher than April 2018, April 2017, April 2016, and April 2014.

    Closed sales for April 2019 were higher than April 2018, April 2017, April 2014, and April 2013 (and within 0.25% of April 2015).

    Inventory continues to be historically low; less SFH for sale than every April from 2000-2012 (that’s a 13 year stretch).

    Months of supply was lower in April than it was in March, which was lower than February, which was lower than January.

    In other words… The Buyer Strike is Working™

  8. 508
    richard says:

    RE: sfrz @ 504 – bravo.. hopefully this long time real estate cheerleader got punished for his relentless effort of misleading buyers for so many years.

  9. 509

    I Imagine There’s An Abundant Amount of Theories Out There, and Guess What, We All May Be Wrong now??? LOL

    This morning I’m on a newer paradigm to truth….yeah raw data is better than allegation, but establishment old policy may or may not be true, but much of it isn’ law at all, not near there. I enjoyed the YOY data vs the 5 year data argument for trending from you bloggers, well put IMO.

    Since when have taxes changed like 10-100% at the bracket level for all incomes, transparency into income wages for Seattle companies, numbers of real tech workers earning livable pay [not slave wages] and outsourcing of “real” manufacturing [like metal cutting, etc., not service economy low wage AMZ high tech warehouse slave shops]…etc, etc….pensions disappearing from retired Boeing workers future hope and the old money supply for Seattle RE, MSFT replacing NW high school kids with H-1Bs at lower pay, etc, etc….but we’re suppose to keep our mouths shut about these issues and believe only allegations from the billionaire overlords from America, Asia and Europe? Real health insurance like Blue Cross going for $20-25K/yr and we pretend the cheaper plans deliver similar options, or in the case of Medicaid for all, hardly no options or doctors at all…its like the shell game, only the circus worker is palming the pea….

    Even the New Green Deal is a joke, they lie about toxic Lithium Batteries production process toxins spewing all over China, let alone feasibility by degreed systems engineers on how our grid system can even charge the toxic waste electric car monsters….then its cash for clunkers as they make you replace your gas car because it pollutes less than electric cars using coal….then its mandatory solar systems on your homes that don’t work in cloudy weather, OVERPOPULATION destroying our air quality with homelessness camp fires, dead Orcas and salmon from too much sewage drainage from OVERPOPULATION in Seattle….poop and heroine needles all over the sidewalks/beaches….the answer is obvious for the Orcas/Salmon and clean air, make it worse with unlimited chain migration OVERPOPULATION, that will fix it…LOL

    Ya see why my crystal ball is foggier than Hades…LOL

    I’m sure even seeing Trump’s 1040 or any other billionaires’ legal deductions would confuse even Einstein, let alone all tax professionals…..IOWs a dead end and accomplishes nothing. Yeah, Congress can demand his tax paperwork if they have a specific need for it….how can they define that need, if they haven’t see his 1040? The tooth fairy? LOL

    Mother Goose Fairy Tales have replaced good old honest truth.

  10. 510
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 507

    LOLOLOL. I’ve periodically been telling the world that KC inventory is now higher than the same week in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2013. Yes, higher than all of them. That caused a lot of poo-pooing by the bubble-mongers, several of which felt compelled to say that it meant nothing in their grand scheme of things.
    In fact, the inventory in 2019 is more than 2X the inventory in 2017, which was the low year.

    Bubble-monger uwp wants to argue that sales counts are high because higher than 2014 and 2016-2018. Then same person uwp wants to argue that inventory is low because lower than 2002-2012.

    No mention that inventory is also higher than ALL of 2013-2018 but sales in 2019 are not increasing in proportion to inventory. Wasn’t there supposedly a shortage of inventory in 2013-2018? Then why are sales counts not increasing much?

    I’ll tell you why: Potential buyers are not buying. Buyer strike. Join the strike. The strike is working, prices are dropping.

  11. 511
  12. 512

    I know people nixed the idea of large Real Estate Company stock values having any meaning in crunching the underlying data that is thrown about here the last time I brought it up. But hard to ignore Reology down to $8.48 at the moment, down 65% YOY.

  13. 513
    uwp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 512:

    I know people nixed the idea of large Real Estate Company stock values having any meaning in crunching the underlying data that is thrown about here the last time I brought it up. But hard to ignore Reology down to $8.48 at the moment, down 65% YOY.

    Redfin is up 1% at the moment. +40% YTD.
    It’s just noise.

    Realogy has been falling since early 2015 (over 80%). They might have their own issues.

  14. 514
    bill0244 says:

    RE: uwp @ 513 – Redfin is actually down 8% YOY. Zillow is down 40% YOY.

  15. 515
    Armk says:

    New here, please let me know if there’s a better place to ask this…

    If I wanted to widen out my garage, but it’s currently sitting on a slope, how much would it cost to demolish part of it, extend the foundation, shore up the structural support of the slope for the widened structure, pour the slab, and rebuild the end of the garage? Sight-unseen guesstimates are all I’m looking for here.

    Saw a stat on another forum saying $50k but that was a couple years ago, so would appreciate any recent data points.

  16. 516
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: uwp @ 513

    That’s why you read the background stories.

    Redfin’s different because they are a self proclaimed ‘tech” Company that doesn’t value by profit. Last I saw they’ve never had a profit and stock price is influenced by rumors floating about someone buying them. Like many startups, often the profit comes from selling the Company not the houses. Galen sold Estately. Pete sold Trulia.

    Reology drop stories are about sales volume and profit drop. At least worth a look. Clearly not to be ignored. Just another data point.

  17. 517
    uwp says:

    By bill0244 @ 514:

    RE: uwp @ 513 – Redfin is actually down 8% YOY. Zillow is down 40% YOY.

    Yeah, my post said YTD (year to date), not YOY.

    The point, is I’m not sure what value the stock price of a single RE company, over a single short(ish) time-frame, is to evaluating the Seattle housing market.

    Maybe they are losing market share to new brokerages. Maybe they over-promised on the last conference call. Maybe there is a lawsuit moving through the system that threatens their claims to 6% going forward. Maybe the CEO just quit under mysterious circumstances. Maybe transactions are up, but prices are down, so gross commissions are down. Maybe transactions are down, but prices are up, so gross commissions are down. Maybe the market is perfectly efficient, and the entire company is worth billions less than 4 years ago. Maybe the market is irrational and this is a buying opportunity.

  18. 518
    whatsmyname says:

    Based on the King County SFR breakouts, it looks like the number of “map areas” with a median under $400,000 has decreased by 67%, (from 3 to 1), YOY.

    Meanwhile, the number of pendings has risen 17%, YOY, and looks like it will be the 4th highest April on record.

    The strike is working?

  19. 519
    Deerhawke says:

    You can have reasonable debates about what kind of market this is. There are those who want to make the case that the market is in poor health, and so they focus on the YOY stats and especially the YOY rise in inventory. There are those who want to make the case that the market is doing fine, and so they focus on MOM and YTD stats.

    I had a professor in grad school who told me that to understand the patterns of any economy or any market, you had to get down and “wallow” in the data. Mixing his metaphors, he then said you had to “squint” at the data to make sure you understood how the contradictions fit together into an overall cohesive pattern.

    If you look at page 2 of the recaps, this is the same basic data that The Tim puts in his summaries and charts every month.

    One of the first things I see when I look at the data is who it benefits.

    During the recession, a lot of people quit being real estate agents. Tons of things to buy, sure. But nobody wanted to buy it. By 2014-2017, the problem just was the opposite. Tons of people wanting to buy, but nothing to buy.

    Right now we have a lot more new listings and total actives. There is more to buy. The self-imposed seller’s strike of 2012-2017 is over, but nobody is running for the exits with their hair on fire.

    At the same time, we also have more pending sales and closed sales. There are more buyers and they have been active. Clearly the so-called seller’s strike of 2018 Q 2, 3 &4 was short-lived and is now over.

    Stuff to sell and people to buy it. That translates to more transactions and more commissions. What this says to me is that 2019 so far is a Real Estate Agent’s Market.

  20. 520
    Armk says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 519

    Nice even-handed analysis. I’ve noticed that the seasonally adjusted Case Shiller data (only through Feb so far) shows high tier homes sliding every single month since mid-2018, while low and mid tier prices have rebounded after the 2H18 dip. Is it reasonable to expect the weakness in high tier to eventually roll down to low and mid tier?

  21. 521
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Armk @ 515

    It really depends on whether you are inside the city of Seattle or outside. It also depends on whether you will be doing this with permits or trying to avoid this.

    Basically if you are in the City of Seattle and it is mapped as an Environmentally Critical Area (ECA) and you are doing it with permits, it is going to be time-consuming and expensive. You will need an architect, structural engineer, geotechnical engineer, etc. and permits (plural).

    If you are out in the county and at the end of a road so no neighbor is going to report you, much faster and cheaper.

    In my mind, $85-90K is reasonable for the first scenario and $50K is reasonable in the second.

  22. 522
    Armk says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 521

    Thanks – this would be in Bellevue, and a critical areas permit would be required (it was supposedly attained by the current owners, they just never built it out). Hearing the 90k makes me feel a bit better about letting that house go, that’s way more than I was willing to put in.

  23. 523

    RE: Armk @ 515
    Hi Armk

    I have a 30 year old car port on a cement foundation and yes, there’s cracks in most all 30 year old cement foundations, its called settling of soil. Cost to replace? $50-150K IMO. Unless you can find a contractor that can lift up the support beams off the cement and tear it out and replace without stretching/destroying the attached roof. I don’t know if that contractor exists.

    Hades, to wheel out my manufactured home would cost $50-150K too, then rebuilding the car port foundation could come down to perhaps $10-20K….probably a lot more to re-attach…once installed, these babies are permanent IOWs. Cover up the cracks with glue for $50 is my advice.

    Its all connected together and not a separate issue. Let the next owner 30 years from now worry about it…LOL

  24. 524
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Armk @ 522

    In some of those older homes in Bellevue neighborhoods, the fact that no one ever did it before tells you something. When they have permits and never did it, that usually means the numbers don’t work.

  25. 525
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 518

    Nobody should expect an even-handed analysis from this guy. But lets go with his 17% number for end-April 2019 increase in pendings versus year before (YOY), and see what it really means.

    At the same end-April time, the number of active listings increased by 78.5% YOY, again according to the April 2019 NWMLS data release*). That is 1.79X as many listings(*). So sales was 1.17X and listings was 1.79X. Which means buyers are sitting out on a grand scale. Buyer strike!!

    The buyer strike is working. Prices are dropping. Join the buyer strike.

    Reference:
    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf
    (download while you can, it gets replaced very month, does anyone have a historical collection I can download?)

  26. 526
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 501
    Seattle housing situation will only get worse not better. We are surrounded by water one side and mountain on the other side. People are commuting north to south. If you live in Everett and change job to Tacoma, good luck. The only solution is to build up. Seattle is located at earthquake zone. High rise is very expensive to meet the code. Seattle metro has large inflow of migrant. Supplier vs demand. Real estate is very local. I can’t predict 1 or 2 years from now. 10 years from now, I am sure everyone would wish buy today when they look back.

  27. 527
    Droppingby says:

    It’s fun watching the bubble mongers go from “prices will never drop in Seattle” to “I can’t predict 1 or 2 years from now, but 10 years from now you’ll regret not buying…”

  28. 528
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 525

    Actually, the real number 15% and 1.15X, not 17% and 1,17X. Whatsmyname mixed up the SFH versus SFH+Condo stats.

    I also made a typo. I used the word sales when I should have said pendings in one place.

  29. 529
    Justme says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 526

    Where will all these Red Herrings live? Something has got to give.

  30. 530
    BacktoBasics says:

    You always have the option to rent and wait price drop to the level you like. Actual right now rent is cheaper than buy. it really depend on your specific situation. Buying locks the monthly payment vs inflation of rent down the road. Why now is good time to buy: 1) low interest rate (my 1st house mortgage rate was 7.5%, and that’s after I bought down 1%, house was 300k then, now it’s like 1 mil) 2) Market is tilted toward buyer’s market (less price competition, more choice). Of couse, if you plan to move away from Seattle within 5 years, it is always better to rent. House is matches well with business cycle, we are at late cycle. So you may get lower price in next recession.

  31. 531
    Justme says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 530

    >>Why now is good time to buy: ………. house was 300k then, now it’s like 1 mil)

    First the red herrings, and then the time-travel fallacy. “Look I bought for 300k way back when. Now it is 1M. Therefore, now is a good time to buy”.

    Uh, No. HELL NO to be more precise. Just keep striking, buyers.

    >> if you plan to move away from Seattle within 5 years, it is always better to rent.

    Modified: if you plan to move away from Seattle within 5 years, it is better to sell NOW and rent.

  32. 532
    Justme says:

    RE: Droppingby @ 527

    LOL, yeah, right on.

  33. 533
    inquiring says:

    When Justme and the others are going on about it being a buyers’ strike and prices falling and rent now, don’t buy and all that… are we only talking about near term investments like property flipping or if you only plan to live in the home or in the area for 5 years? It seems to me that there is no question that if you plan on staying in Seattle for 10+ years that buying is a better option. Even if market drops, it will rebound, and aside from that you are building equity for when you sell (not to mention the tax benefits of being able to claim rather high mortgage interest rates and property taxes).

    I guess my question is boiled down to: don’t we all agree that if you’re planning in living in the Seattle area and in that same house for 10,20,30+ years that buying is the right thing to do? That seems like a universal truth regardless of what housing market we’re talking about.

  34. 534
    kenmorem says:

    i think kary has morphed into justme. maybe that explains the sudden disappearance of KK and rise of JM.

    all rebuttals offered by JM are petty and angry, just like KK. neither can “lose” an argument. avid trumpsters-wannabees.

  35. 535
    uwp says:

    I asked Kary a few months ago why he left, this was his response:

    Nothing really precipitated it other than maybe boredom. But if I were to give reasons:

    1. I was finding the macro-economic (and local economic) topics rather boring.
    2. I’ve been dealing with some other matters.
    3. I’ve been thinking of even cutting back on other social media activities like commenting [on sites]

  36. 536
    BacktoBasics says:

    When Seattle passed min wage of $15/hr from approx $8 -$10, my 1st reaction is inflation. I have down pay saved in the back make zero interest. I realized that I must do something to protect my hard earned money. I bought my 2nd house. When one call of plumber with $250 for solving nothing, I realized that I must be my own plumber. When I go out for two noodle soupe cost me $30 plus tips and tax, I realize that I must be my own chef. Money is no worth much in Seattle. One solution is to buy my 2nd house to protect my hard earned cash from inflation. Seattle is expensive and going to be more expensive. Buying real estate is the only way to protect my hard earned cash. If I live in Omaha NE like W Buffet, I will probably do things different.

  37. 537
    ess says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 535

    Part of successfully owning houses is the ability to do one’s own work. Perhaps not heavy duty plumbing and electrical, but certainly many other tasks. I have developed a variety of skills over the years, and continue to add to them. Interestingly, many of the tasks at hand are those that can be mastered with a bit of practice. Recently I had some work done that was above my paygrade, and person’s card had a list of services he provided. About three quarters of the list are things I already do – so that was encouraging. And with the advent of YouTube, one can even get a better idea of what to do. Rental houses currently do not provide the kind of return for the value of the asset, so it is even more crucial for the landlord to do much of the work themselves.

  38. 538
    Market Psychologist says:

    Anyone watching Lyft’s stock nose dive. It will be interesting to see how Uber does. Will they be the poster children for this era’s tech bust, like Pets.com was in 1999?

    Bernie Sanders, our next President (sorry, SWE), said their drivers are employees today, which would put them out of business.

  39. 539
    Eastsider says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 535 – It sounds logical until you do the math. Cap rate for rental properties have not worked for a few years. And if you are hoping for asset appreciation, I wish you luck. There are many other investment possibilities. Don’t get fixated on RE.

    P.s. you may not be able to write off (or offset) capital loss in RE. That hurts if you overpay.

  40. 540
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 528:

    RE: Justme @ 525

    Actually, the real number 15% and 1.15X, not 17% and 1,17X. Whatsmyname mixed up the SFH versus SFH+Condo stats.

    Condo pendings up 8%
    SFH pendings up 17%
    Combined up 15%

    Oopsie, Justme was in such a hurry to “correct” already correct information that he made the very error that he was wrongfully complaining about. This market must be causing you to lose your mind.

  41. 541
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 525:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 518

    Nobody should expect an even-handed analysis from this guy. But lets go with his 17% number for end-April 2019 increase in pendings versus year before (YOY), and see what it really means.

    At the same end-April time, the number of active listings increased by 78.5% YOY, again according to the April 2019 NWMLS data release*). That is 1.79X as many listings(*). So sales was 1.17X and listings was 1.79X. Which means buyers are sitting out on a grand scale. Buyer strike!!

    The buyer strike is working. Prices are dropping. Join the buyer strike.

    Reference:
    http://www.northwestmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf
    (download while you can, it gets replaced very month, does anyone have a historical collection I can download?)

    1. Post 525 has no analysis; only a couple of facts.
    2. These are not my numbers, they are NWMLS numbers. (I have a printed copy, thank you.)
    3. Do you really think that unless buyers maintain the most unfavorable ratio for them ever, that they are on strike? Is this how you fantasize that markets work?
    4. Did you know that in a labor strike, fewer people work, not more? And especially not 17% more.
    5. Prices are dropping so quickly that the median has dropped from $610,000 to $690,000 in only 3 months. I envy you.

  42. 542
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 539

    I made no such error. For SFH + Condo, inventory was +79% (1.79X) and pendings were +15% (1.15X). It was you that said +17% (1.17X). It was YOU that mixed up the SFH stats with the SFH+Condo stats. It was not that big an error, numerically, so why the big attempt at a coverup?

    You are a pathetic weasel. I already acknowledged typing “sales” when I should have typed “pendings”. And that correction required no prompting from anyone.

    But what did you do? You double down and will not admit that your post was in error. A weasel is as a weasel does.

  43. 543
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 541:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 539

    I made no such error. For SFH + Condo, inventory was +79% (1.79X) and pendings were +15% (1.15X). It was you that said +17% (1.17X). It was YOU that mixed up the SFH stats with the SFH+Condo stats. It was not that big an error, numerically, so why the big attempt at a coverup?

    You are a pathetic weasel. I already acknowledged typing “sales” when I should have typed “pendings”. And that correction required no prompting from anyone.

    But what did you do? You double down and will not admit that your post was in error. A weasel is as a weasel does.

    Like most people here, and like Tim’s charts, I focus on SFR’s only. The 17% SFR-only number was no error. You did not identify that you were taking a more expansive approach. I thought that you were operating in the same world as the general conversation, and that when you said I had confused the two, it was because you had done so.

    I see now I was wrong about what you were saying. But why did you correct me for using the number that ties to the usual context of these conversations?

    Also, how do you feel about the dwindling number of sub-$400K submarkets? I sense a run on first-time buyer product, but maybe one of our resident realtor’s has some thoughts on this.

  44. 544
    Deerhawke says:

    Ok so lets pull up the Recaps and Breakouts to wallow in the King County Residential data a bit. Does not include condo data.

    SUPPLY SIDE

    New Listings
    April 2018 3434
    April 2019 3100
    Increase of 334 units
    Up 10.77%

    Total Actives
    April 2018 2118
    April 2019 3575
    Increase of 1457 units
    Up 68.79%

    DEMAND SIDE

    Pendings
    April 2018 2669
    April 2019 3129
    Increase of 460 units
    Up 17.23%

    Solds/Closed
    April 2018 2122
    April 2019 2147
    Increase of 25 units
    Up 1.18%

    PRICES

    Median Price– Annual
    April 2018 $725,000
    April 2019 $690,000
    Decrease of $35,000
    Down 4.83%

    Short Term YTD Median Price Trend
    January 2019 $610,000
    February 2019 $665,000 Up 9.01%
    March 2019 $667,725 Up 0.4%
    April 2019 $690,000 Up 3.33%

    Short-Term YTD Months of Supply
    January 2019 2.30
    February 2019 2.01
    March 2019 1.84
    April 2019 1.67

    Giving it a quick wallow, it is clear that the data is anomalous– something is not adding up.

    Supply side indicators are solidly up. Demand side indicators are up by less, but very substantially. Given this, on balance, you would expect prices to fall. But after falling substantially during the last 3 quarters of 2018, the YTD stats for 2019 show median prices making a rapid comeback. Oh and there is this– months of supply has dropped every month this year. Hmmm….

  45. 545
    Marc says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 543RE: whatsmyname @ 539

    I’m not here to defend Justme but to say Holy Cow! Can you two reach any further or put more lipstick on this pig? Prices are falling and the pace is accelerating. It is just about certain that it will continue and quite possibly get worse in the second half of the year. We’ve had a substantial change in trend and you have to be blind not to see it.

    In all my years reading SeattleBubble including many years as a paying advertiser, Year over Year has always been the bar by which rates of change were judged and now you just want to gloss over it?!? I think this initially began last fall when Justme began putting way too much emphasis on the drop in median prices compared to the spring ’19 peak, e.g., November’s median was X% below the April high. Now the two of you are taking that and running with it.

    You emphasize the increase in Pendings. Whoop die freaking doo. Inventory of available homes is piling up at a higher rate (+17% vs. +68%) and there’s no reason to expect that to meaningfully change any time this year. The difference in rate of change might moderate later in the year as the YOY base month comparison changes but the higher absolute number of active inventory versus pendings is a lock to be significantly higher every month until next spring.

    More importantly, this increase in inventory and the perception among buyers of more inventory and of more homes sitting around and not selling will only depress buyer fervor. It won’t be a buyer strike but it will significantly diminish how much they are willing to pay for any given house and especially low and marginal quality houses. And there’s a serious risk of a snow ball effect where larger and larger numbers of marginal buyers do in fact pull back from the market for fear of catching a falling knife. This spring has been, at best, a dead cat bounce and there ain’t enough lipstick to change that.

    I do not expect catastrophic price drops but I think there is zero doubt that April/May 2018 were the high point of prices in Seattle this cycle and will not be surpassed until a new bottom is found and the next up cycle begins. Recession is coming so the best case scenario for that is after the next election in spring 2021. Book mark it!

  46. 546
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Marc @ 544 – Yes, seasonality is the biggest driver here. Nobody compares November retail sales to that of October for obvious reasons. Similarly, “YTD stats for 2019 show median prices making a rapid comeback” wins the most ridiculous comment of the year.

  47. 547
    Justme says:

    Meanwhile, flippers, including Seattle flippers, are biting the dust, and hard.

    “The latest boom has also lured people such as Rachelle Boyer in Seattle, who got into property investing after attending a $25,000 real estate coaching program. The course taught her to think big, stay positive, and never quit. In 2016 she left a six-figure job and started flipping houses. When demand slumped last year, she fell behind on hard-money loan payments for two houses languishing on the market. She has one more to get rid of. ‘We will get through the dip. Things are already perking up a bit,’ Boyer says.”

    All of this senseless waste could have been avoided if not for all the greedbags that want to frontrun all the other fools while the regular taxpayer ends up with all the losses.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-09/young-real-estate-flippers-get-their-first-taste-of-losing

  48. 548

    Check Out The Most Expensive Home in NYC

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/see-inside-one-most-expensive-091600635.html

    Even at that the price plummeted $30M since the 2017 peak Price year…are Seattle Tier III homes dropping since 2017 too?

  49. 549
    uwp says:

    By Marc @ 544:

    I do not expect catastrophic price drops but I think there is zero doubt that April/May 2018 were the high point of prices in Seattle this cycle and will not be surpassed until a new bottom is found and the next up cycle begins

    Wow! So are you telling me that prices at the previous peak will be the high point, until they get passed??? Way to go out on a limb with that prediction. “Book mark it!”

    That is almost as good as Justme’s “The peak will be this year. But prices may be higher next year” prediction. (Which ended up being wrong with the very first CS report that qualified under the prediction “rules”)

    You emphasize the increase in Pendings. Whoop die freaking doo. Inventory of available homes is piling up at a higher rate (+17% vs. +68%) and there’s no reason to expect that to meaningfully change any time this year.

    Per NWMLS, SFH listing growth this YTD (December 2018 – April 2019) is lower than last year both in pure number, and percentage growth.

    SFH Inventory Growth (ie. increase in SFH currently for sale):
    80% growth in 2018 vs 25% in 2019
    950 homes in 2018 vs 737 in 2019.

    Sellers are RUSHING FOR THE EXITS®

  50. 550
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 548

    >>That is almost as good as Justme’s “The peak will be this year. But prices may be higher next year” prediction.

    Keep lying, brother bubble-monger. It’s what you do.

  51. 551

    The Average Per Capita Pay in the Seattle Area of $20/hr

    Wouldn’t qualify you for a loan for a $250-300K Modular in SE King County Tier I cheapest homes area…

    Even the Seattle area avg household pay of 1.2 per capita workers is inadequate too….ask any bank. There’s new buyers though lately, mostly retired with previous $CASH$ and/or old principle equity from previous capital gains. Luck devil retired folks IOWs mostly, although we’re getting lots of “thrifty” working age Asians mixed in lately too. The Hispanic families [in general] aren’t buying here much anymore, most all saw their homes repossessed the last decade [they plummeted to $99K ea then in 2010-2016….my daughter’s Latino friend’s family lost their home casino gambling…they live in Auburn apartments now…times are changing and so are home buying demographics.

  52. 552
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 549:

    Keep lying, brother bubble-monger. It’s what you do.

    “Let’s see if I can express this as succinctly as possible: My prediction is that the highest Seattle CS index value in 2017 will not be exceeded/surpassed in the next 11 consecutive monthly index values thereafter.” – Justme

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2017/12/29/case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-edged-just-barely-october/#comment-267040

    Highest Seattle CS index value of 2017 was December 2017: 232.51.
    January 2018 value was 234.14.

    You were wrong. Literally the first moment you could be wrong.

    Also, the most recent CS Index value is 244.99 (higher than both those numbers).

    “I want to have a definite and not-too-distant point in time where my prediction can be evaluated and decisively deemed true or false.” – Justme

  53. 553
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 551

    “But prices may be higher next year” was the lie you made about me. I never said that. Don’t try to get clever by conflating two different things, one which is a lie. Liars aren’t clever.

    Right now it looks like my predication will be off by 5 months. That is the best peak prediction made on seattlebubble for this bubble cycle. So thanks for bringing that up for all to see. Most of the bubble-mongers would not predict any peak at all, or years into the future.

  54. 554
    Armk says:

    RE: Marc @ 544

    This is why I prefer to look at the seasonally adjusted data, which adjusts for the expected monthly pattern, so you can look at how the sequential numbers are trending instead of YoY.

    This is what I’m puzzling over. The high tier numbers are just getting worse and worse, and anecdotally the rich people I know who have multiple properties have been selling and staying in cash. Yet the low tier numbers remain robust. At some point, shouldn’t price pressure from high tier bleed into low tier? If expensive properties get discounted, that should make cheaper properties comparatively less attractive, and their prices should go down too. I guess unless the brackets are so far apart that what happens in one segment doesn’t affect the other.

    CS Seattle SA MoM, Overall
    Jul18 -0.1٪
    Aug18 -0.9%
    Sep18 -0.3%
    Oct18 -0.2%
    Nov18 flat
    Dec18 flat
    Jan19 +0 3٪
    Feb19 +0.1%

    CS Seattle SA MoM, High Tier
    Jul18 -0.2%
    Aug18 -0.6%
    Sep18 -0.4%
    Oct18 -0.8%
    Nov18 +0.1%
    Dec18 -0.4%
    Jan19 -0.1%
    Feb19 -0.7%

    CS Seattle SA MoM, Low Tier
    Jul18 +0.2%
    Aug18 -1.2%
    Sep18 -0.4%
    Oct18 +0.2%
    Nov18 -0.1%
    Dec18 +1.0%
    Jan19 +0.6%
    Feb19 +1.2%

  55. 555
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 552:

    “But prices may be higher next year” was the lie you made about me. I never said that. Don’t try to get clever by conflating two different things, one which is a lie. Liars aren’t clever.

    Your prediction specifically excluded the fact that prices could be higher in 12 months (ie. the next year).

    Right now it looks like my predication will be off by 5 months. That is the best peak prediction made on seattlebubble for this bubble cycle. So thanks for bringing that up for all to see. Most of the bubble-mongers would not predict any peak at all, or years into the future.

    You’ve been bearish since you’ve been posting here; at least back through 2016.
    I don’t really want to waste my time pulling up your old posts.

  56. 556
    Marc says:

    RE: Armk @ 553 – Yes, Yes, and Yes. High tier price drops will work their way down the price point chain. I wouldn’t say it works exclusively that way, i.e., high tier always leads, but I’m confident that it will this time.

    Manhattan started the trend well over a year ago, then Vancouver, CA. Melbournse/Sydney got in the mix at one point as did other super elite international cities. Seattle’s turn got its start when inventory bottomed in February, 2018. It just took awhile for buyers to figure that out and adjust their willingness to pay accordingly. Well, they did and now they have.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/manhattan-real-estate-sales-fall-for-sixth-straight-quarter.html

  57. 557
    David says:

    I cannot imagine a less related real estate market than Manhattan in NYC.

    By Marc @ 555:

    RE: Armk @ 553 – Yes, Yes, and Yes. High tier price drops will work their way down the price point chain. I wouldn’t say it works exclusively that way, i.e., high tier always leads, but I’m confident that it will this time.

    Manhattan started the trend well over a year ago, then Vancouver, CA. Melbournse/Sydney got in the mix at one point as did other super elite international cities. Seattle’s turn got its start when inventory bottomed in February, 2018. It just took awhile for buyers to figure that out and adjust their willingness to pay accordingly. Well, they did and now they have.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/manhattan-real-estate-sales-fall-for-sixth-straight-quarter.html

  58. 558
    dariakus says:

    By Deerhawke @ 543:

    Ok so lets pull up the Recaps and Breakouts to wallow in the King County Residential data a bit. Does not include condo data.

    SUPPLY SIDE

    New Listings
    April 2018 3434
    April 2019 3100
    Increase of 334 units
    Up 10.77%

    Sorry, is there a typo here? That’s a decrease in inventory, actually. Not an increase.

  59. 559
    uwp says:

    By dariakus @ 557:

    Sorry, is there a typo here? That’s a decrease in inventory, actually. Not an increase.

    Unpossible.
    Deerhawk’s keyboard has rejected that math.

    Buyers Strike. Sellers Panic.

  60. 560
    LuLu says:

    last quarter GDP increase by 3.2% , unemployment historic low at 4%. Amazon expend Bellevue from business unfriend Seattle and NYC. I don’t see bubble bust in the near future. NYC and Melbournse/Sydney. One is a mafia capital and one is a population as big as NYC and size as big as USA. Seattle is the AI , cloud computing capital. There is no comparison.

  61. 561
    JustNoise says:

    The simple fact that listings are sitting on the market more than twice as long as last year (14 days one year ago vs. 32 days today, according to Movoto) is an indicator that the market is changing. Less urgency, less frenzy, more thoughtful purchasing. Listing prices have gone down 11% compared to last year, and I still get price drop alerts from Redfin almost daily. I am very curious to see what will happen in the coming year!

  62. 562
    Armk says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 560

    Price drop alerts are just selection bias, right? For houses that get escalated above list price, you don’t get alerts for that. So it’s hard to tell unless you maybe track a time series of the % of listings dropping price. And even then you can’t adjust for the sellers perhaps using a more reasonable initial listing price, so no drops are necessary.

    I do think the lengthened time sitting on the market is encouraging for buyers. The Bloomberg article about house flippers shows you that the business model relies on quick churn. When houses sit longer, the carrying costs mount, and the flippers get more desperate and cut prices because they can’t bear to hold any longer. Forced selling situations are great for buyers (just think of all the people who bought McMansions the last cycle and couldn’t service even the interest payments). Hopefully this pressure on flippers translates to wider pressure on the market.

  63. 563
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: LuLu @ 559 – Things like GDP and unemployment %’s don’t solely dictate home prices. Sentiment is a big factor. Over recent years sentiment has been that of a buying frenzy, which pushed prices up irrationally. Around May 2018 sentiment cooled considerably, as was inevitable at some point.

    I don’t see a bubble burst/crash either, but prices staying flat for many years, or a slow and steady decline…those seem likely to me. A recession or rising interest rates being wildcards of course.

  64. 564
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Armk @ 561 – Fair point, although it’s only selection bias in that I “favorited” the property (So this is not all properties. Maybe I tend to favorite properties that are over-priced?). I automatically get updates for any price change, so I’ve seen a couple of increases after something was re-listed after a failed sell or expired listing. 100% of those increases have gone back down to the original list price or below. I also get updates when properties sell, and what they sell for. Most of my “favorites” thus far have sold at or below list price (generally after a couple price drops). A handful have sold over asking – all houses (no condos thus far) that have views, unique features or are listed low.

  65. 565
    pedaltothemetal says:

    2 boomer couples on my street are planning on selling this summer. Which moss lover out there will pay for their retirement? They get the ss, medicare, your $$. You get their moss. Good deal!

  66. 566
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The only cure for old moss is new moss. Got a leaky roof? More moss!!

    The true joys of a moss box ownership!

  67. 567
    Mikal says:

    I’ve been reading this here for more than ten years and agree that we are now at the top of the market. It’s the same people complaining about price and hoping for some huge fall so they can afford to buy… and the same people saying how great it is because they have a stake in the market. The people complaining about price will never be able to afford here.

  68. 568
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Mikal @ 566 – not complaining about prices. My gripe is this mania and the many massive central bank bubbles being blown. I am very cautious and this world wide casino style housing bubble isn’t rational. I’m no cheerleader for a family left holding the bag of financial ruin. I’m talking people. The investors and the used house salespeeps are talking money.

  69. 569
  70. 570
    sfrz says:

    LARGEST EMPLOYER IN THE REGION.
    “…here are the facts: The situation for Boeing is so bad that the Federal Aviation Administration has turned to NASA to help it make sense of the ever-spreading mess. Also this week, Barclays, one of UK’s big four banks, downgraded Boeing’s stock because the end of its 737 Max troubles is very hard to see, and, to make matters worse, people do not want to fly the plane even if it returns to service. The 737 Max does not look like a jet to them, but a coffin with wings.

    And there is more! Norwegian Air, an airline that was bleeding cash before the Boeing crashes, and is now bleeding more money after it grounded its 737 MAX fleet, is demanding compensation from the cash-strapped American airplane manufacturer (all of the real and virtual cash it used to have is now—and sorry to repeat this—in the pockets of execs and shareholders). Legal experts are expecting other airlines around the world to form a line behind Norwegian Air. The resulting lawsuits will be long and staffed by powerful lawyers. All of this will cost a very pretty penny.” https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/05/09/40155545/boeing-is-broke

  71. 571
    Mikal says:

    RE: sfrz @ 569 – So you’re somehow hoping the end of this will crash the market and give you the ability to buy a house here? If this really affects it please turn the lights out.

  72. 572
    Market Psychologist says:

    RE: Mikal @ 570 – Trolls will be trolls.

  73. 573
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: dariakus @ 557

    Sorry, you are right. There was a typo. I had the order swapped, but the math below it was correct. New listings were up by 334 units or 10.77%.

    New Listings
    April 2018 3100
    April 2019 3434
    Increase of 334 units
    Up 10.77%

  74. 574
    Brianna says:

    From what I’ve observed this year in my RE searches, I’ve noticed quite a bit more “price drops” and pendings going “back on market” than I have noticed in the past 2 yrs.

  75. 575
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Marc @ 544
    _____
    “Prices are falling and the pace is accelerating. It is just about certain that it will continue and quite possibly get worse in the second half of the year. We’ve had a substantial change in trend and you have to be blind not to see it.”
    _____

    Year on year statistics are in fact the most reliable indicator. I will agree with you there. But you will notice that that did not stop all of the real estate bears on this site from delightedly claiming that the sky was falling during the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of 2018. True?

    Since January of this year, King County median prices have risen $80,000 from $610,000 to $690,000. This comes to a 13.11% increase in 4 months. You can pooh-pooh that if you like, but if I were a home buyer right now, that would certainly have me worried.

    There is no question that we had a substantial change in trend downward last April, which is quite clear and should be acknowledged. But we have had another substantial change in trend upward since January. Or not to put too fine a point on it, might it be you who is too blind to see it?

    Either way, the future will be here pretty soon. By the posting of this July’s stats, I would predict that this year’s prices will be above last year’s prices as the former rises and the latter sags. Month on month increases have a way of creating year on year increases given a bit of time.

  76. 576
    Deerhawke says:

    I noted up above in 543 that the current KC real estate data is anomalous and that something is not adding up. I want to offer a hypothesis about this. To keep you from having to go back up there to read it, I said:
    _____

    Supply side indicators are solidly up. Demand side indicators are up by less, but very substantially. Given this, on balance, you would expect prices to fall. But after falling substantially during the last 3 quarters of 2018, the YTD stats for 2019 show median prices making a rapid comeback. Oh and there is this– months of supply has dropped every month this year.
    _____

    My hypothesis is that there really are different things happening in different sub-markets that account for the anomaly.

    I had a marketing party for a house I put on the market a couple of weeks ago. Most of the people there were in the real estate business and many were real estate agents. When I asked people about how the market was doing, I was surprised by the different reactions I got. From some, “Oh boy, it is really tough out there to get anything to sell.” From others, “It’s crazy out there. I had two multiple offer situations in the past month and now it looks like I am in the middle of another. ” Another person said she was happy because her client had just won out in a multiple offer situation.

    As I have looked into it and asked more questions, I have found that there really are a couple of different sub-markets operating quite differently in the North Seattle area where I work.

    The clear consensus among many agents is that the condo market, which had seemed so promising, is now in real trouble. Even the Seattle Times noted in its last article that there were some condo projects where it appears that units are being sold below their cost.

    After some sleuthing on an opportunity I was offered, I found that the townhouse market is also in some trouble. Builders with units in Capitol Hill, Queen Anne and Eastlake are doing fine (although prices are down a bit from last year’s excesses). Builders in Greenlake and Ballard have a real problem with excess inventory. Lots of units came on the market at the same time and a lot of it is very similar, me-too, too small, limited parking product. A big chunk of this excess inventory comes from one larger building company that brought on 50+ units in Ballard and 18 units in Greenlake. Prices are down about $75,000 on average so margins are very thin.

    But the single family market is doing quite well after three rocky quarters last year. You are not getting 17 or 24 offers like 2017, but it is not uncommon to get two or three. One of the things I thought was funny was that even without a stated review date, it seemed that all the buyers did nothing for a week and then all submitted their offer on the same day. There is no question that offerings at lower and middle price points are more competitive. But even higher price points and new construction (as I can attest from my own experience) seem to be moving pretty briskly.

    The other thing I have heard is that you have some things that the market ignored last year put on the market again this year with little or no change. And the buyers generally passed once again.

    So my hypothesis is that it is a pretty buoyant single family market. However a lot of the standing inventory out there is townhouses in certain locations, new bad stuff (which might have sold in a more desperate market in 2017 or early 2018) and recycled shop-worn stuff from last year.

  77. 577
    pedaltothemetal says:

    living in your own private shared wall home

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7t7cGwN7_0

    maybe consider idaho?

  78. 578
    Armk says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 574

    Is there any way I can get the data behind the last chart in Tim’s post (median SFH $ price) so I can apply the seasonal adjustment like Case Shiller? That would probably resolve the YoY vs MoM debate.

    FWIW I am a prospective buyer but my main goal is to figure out the trend and determine whether I should FOMO and buy now, or wait for a better discount. Would love to see lower prices but more interested in getting to the truth than perhaps some of your buyers strikers here.

  79. 579

    RE: Armk @ 577
    Yes Armk

    Every case is different for different reasons. You can buy at high prices and reshuffle expenses on everything else. Switch jobs for lower pay and work closer to home and make higher pay with no commute costs, drive a new Patriot for $9K with dealer incentives, make your own lunch, buy clothes at outlets, carpool, etc, etc…

    You’ll still live the good life with less costs..

  80. 580
    Armk says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 578

    Thanks for the personal finance lesson, I guess? I’m not worried about being able to afford it. It’s a matter of wanting to get the best deal you can. If you can get more house for the same money, or the same house for less money, why not?

  81. 581
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 575

    The single family residence is still the gold standard for most individuals and families in the market, regardless of what politicians say. And as the percentage of single family houses in the Puget Sound area, as compared to the universe of all residences declines, they will always be in demand, and be the type of residence most likely to suffer the smallest decline in any declining real estate market.

    Every prospective real estate purchaser that decides not to buy a residence but remains in the area increases competition in the rental market . That market will be stabilized in part by those who decide not to become homeowners as less real estate sales activity is accompanied by increased rental activity . If real estate developers are losing money on their current developments, future developments will not be built, and the current glut of apartments (in the high end) will be eliminated. Currently in central Puget Sound, there is little or no private “affordable” housing being constructed without government intervention or incentives of some sort. The number of “affordable” housing units in no way meet the demand. So long as the employment situation continues to be vibrant, and migration to this area continues, real estate prices will not only recover, but prices will continue to increase over time, and rents which have plateaued will once again increase. This is nothing new – it is typical of real estate cycles in areas of increased population and limited supply as in the central Puget Sound area.

    I have seen this happen over and over again in this area as an owner in the past 40 years. I can recall in my youth that three bedroom houses in the U District were leased for 150 -200 dollars a month, and houses in that area were selling for under thirty five thousand dollars. Suggest to anyone back then of how prices and rents would escalate in the future, and they would have viewed that prognosis as totally unreasonable. But yet, here we all are.

  82. 582
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: ess @ 580 – By pedaltothemetal @ 565:

    The only cure for old moss is new moss. Got a leaky roof? More moss!!

    The true joys of a moss box ownership!

    The real deal is the land underneath. In Seattle, it is far common to tear down that moss and build a more expensive and livable house. The build cost is very high due to local labor cost.

  83. 583
    Joe says:

    Buyers need to act fast. Apparently they are in a pressure cooker and need to buy now or be priced our forever. sarc.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/seattle-median-home-price-hits-record-820k-soaring-43k-month-putting-buyers-pressure-cooker/

  84. 584
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By ess @ 580:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 575

    I have seen this happen over and over again in this area as an owner in the past 40 years. I can recall in my youth that three bedroom houses in the U District were leased for 150 -200 dollars a month, and houses in that area were selling for under thirty five thousand dollars. Suggest to anyone back then of how prices and rents would escalate in the future, and they would have viewed that prognosis as totally unreasonable. But yet, here we all are.

    Yeah, it’s called inflation. Everything is more expensive now than 40 years ago.

  85. 585
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Armk @ 553

    Low and mid are being supported by:
    1. People who can’t afford high end homes in Eastside (most people)
    2. Tax law changes favoring homes below the MI deduction cut off
    3. Investor frenzy

    The relative differences probably have some legs and I’d expect to see the low end lag significantly.

  86. 586

    Chinese Tariffs Sock Microsoft Seattle in Stomach? Seattle 737 Max 8 Renton Production Bankrupting Boeing Seattle?

    https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-that-the-problems-with-the-737-Max-8-could-bankrupt-Boeing-If-indeed-there-is-a-design-flaw-it-seems-it-could-spell-big-trouble-for-the-company

    The news on Chinese Tariffs on Microsoft is vague…but its sister company Apple is getting socked in the stomach with the new tariffs:

    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/can-apple-survive-a-prolonged-us-china-trade-war-cm1067966

    I’m sure if they knew anything clearer they’d tell us? LOL

  87. 587
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Armk @ 577

    Become a member here. It is a trivial cost compared to buying a house and you get access to the spreadsheets via google drive.

  88. 588

    RE: Armk @ 579
    How’s Your Retirement Account?

    If it doesn’t have enough money then why do you have plenty?

    Home buyers putting this saving essential off are mostly doomed by age 62, no matter if you’re top 5% household income or not….or you have inheritance to burn…

    Saving is for all incomes, even your’s. In fact, your retirement needs if you’re rich are even bigger. You need money to keep your over-priced home afloat on a fixed income from age or bad health…

    The rest of the analysis is your call, retirement savings is not an option. Please correct me if you think I’m wrong and tell me why?

  89. 589

    Amazon Hit the Stomach With Chinese Tariffs Too?

    https://investorplace.com/2018/09/how-vulnerable-is-amazon-stock-amzn-to-a-trade-war/

    I’d say their behind is bare skin to it. I see eBay Chinese stuff is not imported then sold later, it comes directly from Chinese sellers now….Chinese packages and return addresses and all….American companies like Walmart getting short circuited now? I don’t think AMZ allows Chinese postal boxes, I see almost all smiling face shipping boxes….AMZ getting short circuited too?

  90. 590
    softwarengineer says:

    1991 Glenbrook Modular on Lot Estimated at $119K

    Sold a few days ago for 112% over approx 2017 estimate, about $250K now…

    Buy now or kiss these these deals good-bye?

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/27423-149th-Pl-SE-Kent-WA-98042/2085393545_zpid/

    Why did the price shift so much up so quickly? Maybe because like I guessed, its the last of the affordable units the bottom 95% of incomes can afford? I have no idea BTW why Glenbrook prices are going through the roof so fast, or I’d of bought the one a few homes down $CASH$ for $99K a few years ago….its slamdunk profit at $180-200K today with no remodeling to list sell either…easy money Erik…

  91. 591
    Mary says:

    RE: LessonIsNeverTry @ 586

    Do Tim’s spreadsheets only cover King County? I am looking for data on Whatcom County at the moment. Thanks!

  92. 592
    IssaquahResident says:

    SFH inventory is growing at a good pace. There are now north of 4k active listings on Redfin for King County!

  93. 593

    RE: LessonIsNeverTry @ 587
    And You Get Free Brain Washing Removal Too

    What a deal…LOL

  94. 594
    Marc says:

    By Deerhawke @ 575:

    RE: Marc @ 544 – Either way, the future will be here pretty soon. By the posting of this July’s stats, I would predict that this year’s prices will be above last year’s prices as the former rises and the latter sags. Month on month increases have a way of creating year on year increases given a bit of time.

    Ok, now we have a bet.

    Will July 2019 median single family home price for King County be “above” July 2018’s $699,000? You say yes, I say no. Ties are for wussies so if it hit’s $699k on the dot, we both lose.

    Loser has to concede how wise and insightful is the winner.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2018/08/07/nwmls-prices-retreat-slightly-as-inventory-continues-to-climb/

  95. 595
  96. 596
    NW says:

    By NW @ 595:

    No pressure: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-09/young-real-estate-flippers-get-their-first-taste-of-losing

    Sorry, did not see the article has been mentioned before, no way to delete the post now.

  97. 597
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Moving to Hyderabad soon. Living in Seattle has made me realize how much I enjoy traffic, curry and traffic + curry at the same time. I’ve started bobbing my head left and right and some old Seattle folks just don’t get it. Maybe China after that. Some people in Seattle still resent me when I work the weekends.

    I will miss shining the Bezos balls. Hoping there will still be poo everywhere.

  98. 598
    dude says:

    By softwarengineer @ 586:

    Seattle 737 Max 8 Renton Production Bankrupting Boeing Seattle? https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-that-the-problems-with-the-737-Max-8-could-bankrupt-Boeing-If-indeed-there-is-a-design-flaw-it-seems-it-could-spell-big-trouble-for-the-company

    Do you know that quora is a site where anyone can post a question? And even if you did, did you know that the answer given in the thread you posted was no? Could you be any more dishonest in your coverage of this topic? Honestly SWE, give it a break.

  99. 599
    dude says:

    By Joe @ 583:

    Buyers need to act fast. Apparently they are in a pressure cooker and need to buy now or be priced our forever. sarc.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/seattle-median-home-price-hits-record-820k-soaring-43k-month-putting-buyers-pressure-cooker/

    this is from 2018

  100. 600
    Notme says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 597

    Remember Bezo balls
    Moss is thicker than curry
    What will we do now?

    -a bromantic bubble haiku

  101. 601
    Deerhawke says:

    By Marc @ 594:

    By Deerhawke @ 575:

    RE: Marc @ 544 – Either way, the future will be here pretty soon. By the posting of this July’s stats, I would predict that this year’s prices will be above last year’s prices as the former rises and the latter sags. Month on month increases have a way of creating year on year increases given a bit of time.

    Ok, now we have a bet.

    Will July 2019 median single family home price for King County be “above” July 2018’s $699,000? You say yes, I say no. Ties are for wussies so if it hit’s $699k on the dot, we both lose.

    Loser has to concede how wise and insightful is the winner.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2018/08/07/nwmls-prices-retreat-slightly-as-inventory-continues-to-climb/

    You have a bet! Bookmark it.

    In fact, I will see you and raise you one. I say we will get to a median KC price of $699,000 by the time the June stats are posted in early July. Loser has to concede how wise and insightful the winner is AND buy them a good glass of wine or beer in a decent but not absurdly expensive watering hole in Wallingford, Greenlake, Fremont, Phinney etc.

  102. 602
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Mary @ 591 – Mary, yes, although not at the level of detail as King or Snohomish. It is in a spreadsheet called Around the Sound and has basic data from 8/2005 forward.

  103. 603
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 592 – The active inventory has been interesting this Spring. A definite slowdown in the week over week rate of increase around Easter, with a mild jump in the rate the last week. As many of us expected on here, the Spring buying season had a lot of pent up buying energy. I had been thinking it is 50/50 that it would continue into the summer. Now I think it is more like 30/70, massive mortgage rate drops or recessions excluded.

  104. 604

    Good Saturday Bubbleheads

    My gosh, 86 degrees yesterday and 89 degrees today? Good ole Global Warming is back now, except Minnesota, it snowed 14 inches in Duluth yesterday….the graduation class from Colorado had their ceremony in the snow too…LOL

    Interesting blogs and the folks at Glenbrook are sprucing up their units…free beauty bark today….Happy Mother’s Day, make sure you at least give her a call….geez…;-)

  105. 605
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition

    Many potential homebuyers in King County went on strike in April 2018, and one year later, the strike is still going strong, with Case-Shiller index dropping for 8 months in a row in the expensive areas, while lower-priced subregions are having a small spring price bump, due to foolish or uninformed priced-out buyers that are still overbidding on product in the lower-priced subregions.

    The graphs compare 2017-2019 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year, a fact that was much ballyhooed by the sell-side and inflation-mongers of the property market. But the shoe is now on the other foot. Combine the increase in inventory with a much more realistic criterion that 1month worth of active inventory is all that is needed for a “balanced market”, the property market has shifted radically since March 2018 and continues to do so in 2019. Click the link and scroll to see the graphs. Click on each graph for an enlarged view. ESC and scroll to navigate.

    https://imgur.com/a/M9XIapF

    2019-05-11 King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-11 King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-11 King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017
    2019-05-11 King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017

    Commentary: It is now peak season, and for this week of the year, the KC SFH inventory is yet again the highest it has been since 2012. KC SFH for sale also broke the 4000 level and peaked at 4080 Friday night. This is higher than all of 2013-2018 for same week of year. Yes, higher than 2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018. Why is this happening? Well, it is because lots of product is coming on the market, but even at the peak of buying season, product purchases are less than 50% of what is being offered.

    Product sales continue to lag new listings, and many sellers are being left behind. Price reductions are commonplace, with an increasing 316 price reductions for KC SFH product the last 7 days. Many >4wk old listings are languishing on the market. There is little doubt that the bubble-bust is in full swing. There are lots of sellers, but not enough willing buyers at the prices being offered. Many buyers are on strike, refusing to buy at currently offered prices. Sellers have gone from “I think I’ll wait another year” to “Better get my house on the market before it is too late”. Still, many sellers are over-pricing the market by a significant amount, and their product is languishing.

    Absorption of product continues to be well below 50%, with SFH absorption to pending at 42% for the last 4 weeks, as of this morning. Clearly, many buyers are unwilling to participate at the current price levels. That pesky buyer strike, again. Buyers that find themselves competing with another buyer will do well in just withdrawing from bidding. Better yet, don’t do any bidding at all, and join the strike. The sellers had their seller strike in 2013-2018, and uninformed buyers engaged in panic-buying. No more. It is time to show the sellers who really sets the price.

  106. 606
    Joe says:

    I visited four open houses today in the Woodinville area for nice homes priced in the $1.1 to $1.5 M range. Three of the four open houses were empty. We were the only visitors during the 20-30 minutes we were there. No sign in sheets. No visitor log. Nothing but a lonely realtor.

    The fourth house we visited had two other couples look at it. They were in no hurry and they looked like they were just killing time, like us.

    Three of the four houses looked to be vacant with nothing in the closets. Only one was being lived. I imagine the holding costs were quite sizeable for these houses, with the landscaping to keep up on.

    One of the realtors tried to tell me that things were slow late last year, but now they are smoking hot. Given the complete lack of traffic, however, he was obviously overstating things quite a bit and trying to create some urgency where there is none.

    This experience only confirmed my belief that house prices are dropping on the East Side and will continue to drop for some time. Why pull the trigger on a $1.3M house when you can likely buy it for $1.1M, or less, next year?

    Price per square foot on these properties was around $400 to $500, still way too high.

    Of course, the realtors were also telling me the drive to Microsoft was only 10-15 minutes. I know that to be complete fantasy. During normal traffic during the week, you are looking at a 30 minute commute, a lot of it sitting in choking traffic.

    Wake me up a couple years from now when the prices are 30% lower.

  107. 607
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 602

    Good charts. It seems to me sellers are looking at the recent drop in rates and recognizing that this time is likely the last chance to rope in a buyer at a high price. By this time next year, we will likely be looking at much lower prices.

    My prediction is that as summer moves in , the gradual price decline will restart as the high level of inventory gets repriced downward to sell before winter. Nobody wants to sit on a vacant property over the winter. In Seattle, a property turns into a jungle with all the rain and growth (weeds, moss, shrubs, trees, etc). Keeping that up is costly.

    Also, I expect the gradual RE price decline to accelerate into something more dangerous when the stock market drops 40-60% again. I think this will happen sometime in the next few years. People want liquidity after a stock market drop so they can buy depressed stocks.

  108. 608
    Joe says:

    RE: Joe @ 604

    One other point. I noticed the houses for sale in the Woodinville area have been owned for a long time by boomers who are likely choosing to retire and move to somewhere else, or to a smaller dwelling.

    This makes me wonder how much of the inventory spike is related to a topping market, and how much is related to boomer retirements on the East Side. There’s no question we will be seeing a wave of age related selling by boomers at some point. The demographics are clear.

    Has it started? If so, the price drops will get a lot worse for a long time before they get better again.

  109. 609
    Eastsider says:

    FYI –

    Vancouver home sales slump to 24-year low as prices continue to fall
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-vancouver-home-sales-slump-to-24-year-low-as-prices-continue-to-fall/ (pay wall)
    Housing prices in the Vancouver region are falling while sales have decreased to a 24-year low as the real estate industry blames government policies for the slowdown. In April, the benchmark price for detached homes, condos and townhouses dropped month over month for the 11th consecutive time.

    Metro Vancouver home prices slide again, April sales 43% below 10-year average
    https://globalnews.ca/news/5231210/vancouver-april-real-estate-prices/

  110. 610
    Eastsider says:

    Another Vancouver news article.

    IMO, foreign cash pushed up home prices by far more than the 3.7% to 7.5% estimate given in the article. If all 1/5 of the RE purchased over the past 2 decades are forced to liquidate, prices will drop in half in a hurry.

    Billions in Dirty Cash Helped Fuel Vancouver’s Housing Boom
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/billions-in-dirty-cash-helped-fuel-vancouver-s-housing-boom

  111. 611
    MD says:

    Anyone with half a brain can see that the stock market and the economy are on the verge of rolling over. I fully expect to see inventory numbers skyrocket in late summer, especially if we finally get the crash everyone is expecting.

    Sell now or baghold forever!

  112. 612
    Voight-kampff says:

    Today was kind of surreal, but I’d like to relay it here.
    Granted, this is purely anecdotal market information, but the interaction went like this:

    went to an east side condo open house today, and I was the only one there. It has been on the market for a few weeks. I poked around a bit. The agent kept telling me how motivated the sellers were.
    As I was putting on my shoes to leave, the listing agent literally said (I’m quoting verbatim)
    “seriously, my clients will take almost any offer, even if it’s way under the listing price, they are desperate”

    Holy cow.
    Personally, I’m ok with a market crash, or a market spike. I’ve endeavored to prepare for both, but this concerned me. At best, the agent is a total train wreck, and neglecting their fiduciary duty to the seller. At worst, this market is heading south pretty rapidly, and both agent and seller know it.
    Both scenarios are not “good”.

    Whatever, game of thrones will be on shortly.

  113. 613
    Armk says:

    RE: Joe @ 605

    I’ve heard the line about retirees having to sell their houses and move because of the escalating tax assessments. Just looking at houses on redfin, it seems there’s still a considerable gap between the assessed/taxed value and the market price. For example, I’m seeing 1mm houses tax-assessed at 700k. Should we expect these tax escalations to continue until the two prices converge? That could precipitate even more retirees to sell and move to somewhere cheaper.

    I don’t see the market topping as being distinct from boomer driven selling. Every market correction has its seeds in the upswing. The very fact that prices and taxes escalated makes houses uneconomical to carry for some on fixed income. This group will eventually start to sell out, having done fairly well for themselves, and inventory will go up.

    Just speculating here – please correct me if I’m wrong.

  114. 614

    BTW, the HOAs Go On a Frenzy When Open Houses Start Listing

    They get picky about a few weeds in the middle of Heather, etc…

    I almost liked it better when the Latino families were here in the early 2000s, albeit the neighborhood has spruced up with lots of $CASH$ being poured into it now. Its that 112% YOY increase in selling price…

    The Congress better get off its lazy duff and give us the Trump lower taxes phase 2 (Permanently past 2020), otherwise I see red flags for everything including RE.

  115. 615

    RE: Armk @ 610
    Many Do Not Know

    That 85% of Social Security is taxed, Medicare Part B isn’t free [its $135/mo and just covers office visits], Part D [drugs] also has a monthly fee, then there’s the cost of add-on Medicare private plans or silver family plans [like Blue Cross at $2000/mo or $600/mo from your union or pension…then if you don’t have a mortgage on your home, most do]. BTW, you still have property tax and maintenance and/or HOAs’ fees [$600/mo for Renton condos]….the fun goes on and on…

    Bring your BMW [bring mass wads] $CASH$….will the RE be affected? Depends on what the Milenials do to keep mom and dad afloat perhaps? The whole gypsie unit of multiple per capita incomes might keep the house off the market anyway? Time will tell.

  116. 616

    When Retirees Get Older They See Their Homes for Senior Living Centers, Like Shaq?

    What Does Senior Housing Usually Cost?

    “…As of 2016, The Cost of Care Survey1 reported that the national median rate for a one bedroom living facility increased 2% to the price of $3,628 per month.

    But what do they cost now per month?

    https://www.nation.com/heres-why-senior-housing-options-are-expected-to-drastically-drop-in-price/?utm_source=gemini&cn=yg-adv-senior-living-dt-gg&utm_campaign=yg-adv-senior-living-dt-gg&imp=47134&om_bs=Y6K3Drd_rgVsp2OIWeNYBVcAUbdvD7cGlTWKRp0LrEoUq0i-_Yd-KZwO4WOC6h21VRA-emgQIeQ_3HQbIkTbvY30t6JbDxFtt_l2cTHlWiCHdqIRzHX5c8GAjudNWIHy7jOjeI4vE1q3kxcYkbtS8RB-xkj6lxwkzvLFkg&nw=n&utm_medium=paid&utm_term=HOMEPAGE_US&utm_content=34848678342&asid=9742843240&device=c&adid=34848678342&campaign_id=373120009&mkcpgn=98722ec4f0c34bf2a755970e14fb82bb&sg_uid=98722ec4f0c34bf2a755970e14fb82bb

    The same report revealed that a semi-private room costs, on average, $3,628 a month while a private room costs over $7,500 each month. This is a total increase of 5% in the past 5 years. At this rate, senior living may soon become a luxury that only a few can even afford.

    But, with an unexpected boom of new senior living options like multigenerational communities, urban senior communities, and more, prices are temporarily down. For the first time many years, deals on senior living are everywhere if you are looking in the right places…”

    Ya see why ya need to save for retirement now…

  117. 617

    China Says, “But Not to Worry”

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-shares-yuan-rise-investors-061302932.html

    Company lay-offs in China and GDP growth shrinking is a good economic sign….I think the Chinese have been brainwashed by the Open Border Party (OBP)….LOL

    bad is good and good is bad….hey George Orwell’s 1984 predicted this…LOL

  118. 618

    RE: softwarengineer @ 614
    Open the URL and Check Out That Chinese Stock Broker With the Red [MAGA?] Hat

    Red hats are in style now….LOL

  119. 619

    Its Only a $1.5T Tax Give-a-way

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-debt-loans-cancel-forgive-142422120.html

    Hades, forgive home loan debt too and watch RE prices soar as we kiss lender banks good-bye….LOL

    I’m reading a Clive Barker imaginary dimension 821 pg novel, “Imajica”…this all fits together now….we send our debts to another dimension and reset…LOL

  120. 620

    Obamacare Rates on ACA to Go Up Avg 19% YOY in 2019 for Wash St

    That’s approx $200/mo +/-…

    https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/the-states-where-health-care-premiums-will-go-up-the-most-in-2019.html/

    That’s not chump change if you pay the full silver plan [plans ;like Blue cross] MSRP…looks like $2200/mo approx for 2019…even when your “Jack in the Box” jobs forks out there for remaining 3/4s of the silver plan costs, its still $600/mo out of your typical Seattle area burger flipper pay…same numbers for AMZ warehouse workers at $13/hr….

    I remember in 1978 when my share of health costs was $15/mo…even inflation adjusted that’s $75-150 share in 2019 dollars…its approx quadrupled in price…

    0% matching 401Ks and no pensions making retirement planning basically a “mattress stuffing” replacement bank out of the locked box annuity…start saving now, or you’re screwed at 62…Social Security bankrupt by 2030, 11 years from now Bubbleheads?…

    The condo HOA fees were $600/mo a few years ago…$700-800/mo now? The fun goes on and on…

  121. 621
  122. 622

    Even the Wash St Pot Companies are Exploding in “OVERPOPULATION Campfire Type” Wild Fire Flames

    https://patch.com/washington/across-wa/marijuana-factory-smokey-point-explodes-1-injured

    Lack of safety engineering isn’t just a Boeing Max 8 problem….we’ve lost our plant safety engineering skills/experience in Wash St at pot companies too?

  123. 623
    OMG SWE says:

    9 posts in a row. PLEASE. STOP.

  124. 624
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 617 – The Democrats don’t know the difference between insurance and theft.

  125. 625
    David says:

    Why not a 60% drop, or even an 80% drop in price!! Makes my loins quiver just thinking about it.

    By Joe @ 603:

    Wake me up a couple years from now when the prices are 30% lower.

  126. 626
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 609 – Thanks for sharing. Just curious, did you consider making a very low-ball offer? Or were you just dubious enough not to want go near it?

  127. 627
    Eastsider says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 622 – I doubt a ‘low-ball’ offer will go anywhere. If the seller is desperate, he will reduce the price by 5% or even 10%.

  128. 628
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 613 – The low hum of the Inogen 3000 punctuates the sound emanating from the dusty Marantz receiver and turntable:

    “Sugar Magnolia blossom’s blooming
    Head’s all empty and I don’t care
    Saw my baby down by the river
    Knew she’d have to come up soon for air..”

    “I remember that great show at the Greek Theater. Or was it the Warfield? Ohhhh… what was that name? Jimi Garcia? Er…The Grateful Stones? Ohh……”

    “To get back to the warning that I’ve received, you might take it with however many grains of salt you wish, that the brown sildenafil that is circulating around us is not specifically too good. It’s suggested that you do stay away from that. Of course it’s your own trip, so be my guest.”

  129. 629

    Amazon Having Stealth Layoffs Now?

    https://news.yahoo.com/amazon-employees-well-pay-quit-101229443.html?.tsrc=bell-brknews

    Sure appears like the golden handshake to me….time will tell…

  130. 630

    RE: softwarengineer @ 625
    The Real Reason for the Possible Golden Handshake Layoffs at AMZ?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-automation-exclusive-idUSKCN1SJ0X1

    Automation makes more OVERPOPULATION or immigration a complete joke now?

  131. 631

    Seattle Boeing is Battered and Bruised over MAX 8 Failures, Now This:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/boeing-shares-fall-on-speculation-that-china-may-single-it-out-in-the-trade-war.html

    The Chinese are out for Boeing Blood as the trade war worsens…

  132. 632

    RE: softwarengineer @ 616
    In Other News Today That I Can’t Make Head or Tales Sense Out Of:

    Interest rates going down as China pulls out of American equities because of trade war? Uhhhhh? Now China was screwing home buyers keeping interest rates high? Ya don’t need an economics degree to figure this issue out, how about a crystal ball?

    ohhh…oil is up a couple bucks barrel, those Prius fill ups at 30K miles driven per year add up. Must be the looming war with Iran? I’m glad I only drive my Charger about 5000 mi/yr….but I’m the carbon footprint pig?…LOL

  133. 633

    My Gosh, My Gosh….the Sky is Falling, the DOW down 700 points Right Now

    If Boeing stock lost 5-6% a day [like today]….it would be worthless in a couple weeks…..I hope Pffft sold his $50K of Boeing stock he allegedly bought after the MAX 8 crashes…

    MSFT 2-3% decline per day gives that company maybe a couple months? Apple is twice as bad, like Boeing. The other high tech leaders crumpling like Seattle foundations during a 6.0 earthquake too…

    LOL…baton up the hatches Bubbleheads and lock all the sky scraper windows…they jumped out of ’em after the banks locked their doors during the Great Depression too…

    Will Trump lead his savior army in to shore up the crumbling walls? Will the Open Border Party even let him? The OBP is brainwashed with pointless impeachment dead-ends….when are they gonna pitch in and help for once instead of just obstruct the economy with more tax, useless OVERPOPULATION???? Hades, the tent cities for the 10s of thousands of foreign invaders makes the Seattle legal citizen homelessness [much of it disabled veterans] “sewage drug needle sidewalk camp sites” look like the Hilton in comparison….the foreign invaders deserve “Sheriff Joe Peanut butter sandwiches and pink underwear cheap tent cities instead”? Just where are our priorities anyway? MAD magazine writes them? LOL

  134. 634
    Notme says:

    Nasdaq heart attack
    the UBER going under
    bubble-buyers suffer

    -a bubble haiku

  135. 635
    Deerhawke says:

    CBRE is one of big players in commercial real estate in the region. Every year they put out a report on the region’s economic and business prospects.

    Of course it is a marketing exercise. Of course it takes the more bullish side in the bull/bear equation about Puget Sound real estate. But it is definitely worth a look.

    https://cbre.ent.box.com/s/lbslcoce6aqia35mm2189hw79zaxqqos

  136. 636

    RE: softwarengineer @ 629
    Today You See Why Retirees Depend on $CASH$ and Not Stocks

    Our gambling and finger nail chewing days are over….we’re just at our laptops smiling….

    I imagine the CD and MM rates are going back to zero interest again? The Chinese pulled all their money out? LOL….have a toke, its the good stuff….LOL

  137. 637

    RE: Deerhawke @ 631
    Yes Deerhawke,

    You were honest about the CBRE being bull and not bear:

    What’s missing from the report is the aftermath investor shuffling, like Trump did by claiming losses and reselling, then deducting MASS income off their federal taxes…these cons never lose money? Tenants to double by next year? I want some of the stuff that guy’s smoking….LOL

    A good read Deerhawke, thanx ;-)

  138. 638

    RE: Notme @ 630
    Yes Notme

    Uber cars full of germs now….women raped by phony Uber drivers….the fun goes on and on…

    I love your poetry…you should publish a book of it.

  139. 639

    The Traveling Wilburys Lyrics
    “End Of The Line”

    Well it’s all right, riding around in the breeze
    Well it’s all right, if you live the life you please
    Well it’s all right, doing the best you can
    Well it’s all right, as long as you lend a hand

    You can sit around and wait for the phone to ring (End of the Line)
    Waiting for someone to tell you everything (End of the Line)
    Sit around and wonder what tomorrow will bring (End of the Line)
    Maybe a diamond ring

    Well it’s all right, even if they say you’re wrong
    Well it’s all right, sometimes you gotta be strong
    Well it’s all right, As long as you got somewhere to lay
    Well it’s all right, everyday is Judgment Day

    Maybe somewhere down the road aways (End of the Line)
    You’ll think of me, wonder where I am these days (End of the Line)
    Maybe somewhere down the road when somebody plays (End of the Line)
    Purple haze

    Well it’s all right, even when push comes to shove
    Well it’s all right, if you got someone to love
    Well it’s all right, everything’ll work out fine
    Well it’s all right, we’re going to the end of the line

    Don’t have to be ashamed of the car I drive (End of the Line)
    I’m just glad to be here, happy to be alive (End of the Line)
    It don’t matter if you’re by my side (End of the Line)
    I’m satisfied

    Well it’s all right, even if you’re old and gray
    Well it’s all right, you still got something to say
    Well it’s all right, remember to live and let live
    Well it’s all right, the best you can do is forgive

    Well it’s all right, riding around in the breeze
    Well it’s all right, if you live the life you please
    Well it’s all right, even if the sun don’t shine
    Well it’s all right, we’re going to the end of the line

  140. 640
    Ohd1122 says:

    By softwarengineer @ 632:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 629
    Today You See Why Retirees Depend on $CASH$ and Not Stocks

    Our gambling and finger nail chewing days are over….we’re just at our laptops smiling….

    I imagine the CD and MM rates are going back to zero interest again? The Chinese pulled all their money out? LOL….have a toke, its the good stuff….LOL

    RE: softwarengineer @ 632

    pssst…inflation…

    Unless you’re also including things like CDs or other fixed income assets and not just checking/savings accounts. Still some inflation risk

  141. 641
    Ohd1122 says:

    By Deerhawke @ 631:

    CBRE is one of big players in commercial real estate in the region. Every year they put out a report on the region’s economic and business prospects.

    Of course it is a marketing exercise. Of course it takes the more bullish side in the bull/bear equation about Puget Sound real estate. But it is definitely worth a look.

    https://cbre.ent.box.com/s/lbslcoce6aqia35mm2189hw79zaxqqos

    Interesting read, thank you for sharing. I thought the expected new condo buildings by year chart was enlightening…definitely makes me start to wonder if there are headwinds in the condo segment, which you have strongly alluded to before.

    I do think page 17 is ridiculous though. The measurement for affordability is the “rent to average tech wage” ratio. I seriously doubt CBRE actually meant this as a measurement of broad marker affordability rather than to illustrate comparatively why Seattle is economically attractive to tech workers vs. other cities. The title is very misleading IMO.

  142. 642
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 631

    An interesting, optimistic report, hopefully it is accurate. If their prognosis is correct, one should observe the growth of both real estate prices and rents in the area over the next few years. And single family houses in or close to Seattle should be leading the way as there will be less of them as a percentage of the market universe of available housing.

    A few observations.

    The average size of multi family housing in Seattle is rather small. Apparently more and more individuals are residing in very small one and two bedroom apartments. It is no wonder that the public storage business is booming in this area. I notice those storage facilities everywhere, and I assume that most of their business comes from individuals who reside in increasingly smaller apartments that don’t have extra space, as well as a propensity for many individuals to accumulate too much stuff.

    The report indicates that Amazon may develop enough office space in Bellevue to house 25 thousand employees. That figure surprised me, as my calculations as per accumulated office space announced by Amazon would house significantly less than that number. If their calculations are correct (and there is no reason not to believe so), then by default, Bellevue in a few short years will either be considered HQ2, or if not that, a very important business center for Amazon. As far as real estate goes – it isn’t what Amazon calls the location – but the number of employees and types of jobs that they maintain.

    A shame that the analysis did not have the detail for both north and south of Seattle, especially in Snohomish County. On the other hand- a rising tide floats all boats. One rather suspects with both population and employment increases, as well as the development of light rail – those areas will also benefit from a strong real estate market in the Seattle/Eastside area.

  143. 643

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 636
    Hey That’s Taken Care Of, But You’re Right

    The trick is have like a ton of $CASH$ in a 3% CD or 401K…..that interest occurs every year times 20 years ……let’s see, that fund alone is making 30-60% COLA equivalent per year….think about it….

  144. 644
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ess @ 638 – What’s your motivation for continually trying to manipulate people into a bullish case for the local housing market? You’ve been caught doing this in your posts during Amazon’s HQ2 selection process, so it’s clear you’re attempting to manipulate. The only question is, why?

  145. 645
    ess says:

    First a report that Amazon may expand to 25,000 employees in Bellevue (as referenced in the article posted by Deerhawke in comment #631), and then the following article regarding Washington State.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/washington-ranked-nations-best-state-by-u-s-news-world-report/

    Good news for both homeowners and real estate investors. Nothing like a national publication extolling the virtues of Puget Sound, which is where most people in Washington State reside to generate even more in migration. And more people coming to this area – more competition for scarce housing resources. Good old supply and demand at work.

  146. 646
    Justme says:

    RE: ess @ 641

    >>First a report that Amazon may expand to 25,000 employees in Bellevue (as referenced in the article posted by Deerhawke in comment #631),

    Geez Lousie. That source is not even a newspaper article. It is a sales brochure from commercial real estate brokerage CBRE. But nice to see all at once where the bubble-monger propaganda comes from.

  147. 647
    steven says:

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/583-Battery-St-APT-802-Seattle-WA-98121/247767600_zpid/

    how does this even happen? refinanced to the max to use home as a credit card? bought at 535k and foreclosure priced at 795k

  148. 648

    Our Governor Wants All Electric Cars By 2030

    Lets see how Tesla is doing on Safety Engineering concerns:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-hongkong/tesla-car-catches-fire-in-hong-kong-parking-lot-media-idUSKCN1SK0G1

    https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-cars-catch-on-fire-2019-4

    The math numbers raise concerns about these electric beasts spontaneously exploding in flames [in your garage?] for no reason…of course its political, but based on low production its horrifying. I’ll stick with my gasoline car, the death rate is currently WAY too high for Lithium battery cars…

    The Open Border Party mitigates OVERPOPULATION concerns, like wild fires in the streets, as unimportant, it appears they’re the same Pontious Pilate washing their hands that caused the evil…

  149. 649

    RE: steven @ 643
    Its the American Dream Now Steven

    Debt is good and saving is bad….a quote from George Orwell’s 1984 perhaps? LOL

  150. 650
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: steven @ 643
    Insignia is a new building that started pre-sales way before the boom of downtown prices. Buyers that locked in prices during early pre-sale phase made a killing. You could either sell when building was completed to lock in your profits, or you could hold or cash out-refi and hope for even more appreciation. Looks like this person chose the latter.

  151. 651

    RE: softwarengineer @ 629
    Today’s Open Border Party (OBP) Bent US News and World MSM News Reminds Me of Deerhawke’s CBRE URL

    Almost all bull bent and brainwashing IMO:

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2019-05-14/amazon-clean-power-help-fuel-washington

    Hey, does all that “New Greed Deal” baloney bring back our dead Orcas from OVERPOPULATION sewage? Will it stop the homelessness in Seattle? Will it stop the wild fire OVERPOPULATION smoke air pollution this Summer? Will the mandatory $40,000 solar systems to go to 100% electric car charging work continuously in cloudy weather? Will Seattle “all electric cars” mean “rolling electric grid blackouts in Seattle’s future? No one read the new OBP Obamacare phone book, who cares if it works….LOL

  152. 652

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 646
    Hey the Too Big too Fall All Lose Money to Make Tax Deductions

    Ask Trump….LOL

  153. 653

    The Guy in the Chemical Hazard White Safety Gear is Visiting a Chinese Lithium Battery Production Plant Land Sector?

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nuclear-wasteland-inside-ghost-towns-135129364.html

    Nuclear waste and heavy metal production waste, about the same thing…

  154. 654

    Communist With Colleges’ Collusion is Real

    Ya don’t need a phony DOJ/FBI FISA Dossier as Proof Either

    Ya just use actual history, not fake news…

    https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=12223

  155. 655
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/city-predicts-slower-growth-ahead-for-seattles-economy-tax-revenues/

    The palace assures us that they don’t anticipate declines in RE taxes. Wow.

  156. 656

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 646

    I took a quick peek. Why is someone calling it a foreclosure? Looks like a list price and a regular sale to me. Has zero to do with mortgages or refinances.

  157. 657
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 646
    That’s awesome! Smart buyer. The person that did this is very smart.

  158. 658
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 652
    I didn’t look into it, I was just commenting on what Steven was saying.
    The Zillow link Steven provided shows it as a foreclosure.

  159. 659

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 654

    I think that may be an error. I’ll let the listing agent know. Looks like someone clicked a wrong data box.

  160. 660
    David says:

    I’m sure the Communist Chinese Government run state aerospace monopoly would be extremely honest in owning problems and inspecting crashes of their state-sponsored aircraft. They’d also wave their immunity from civil lawsuits and pay foreigners huge sums in settlements – just like they did for their own people after Tiananmen Square.

    Trump is just wrong about all this stuff. Boeing sucks and is going out of business,

    By softwarengineer @ 627:

    Seattle Boeing is Battered and Bruised over MAX 8 Failures, Now This:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/boeing-shares-fall-on-speculation-that-china-may-single-it-out-in-the-trade-war.html

    The Chinese are out for Boeing Blood as the trade war worsens…

  161. 661

    RE: softwarengineer @ 647
    WSJ Alleges America’s Domestic Fertility Rate Way Down [1.7, BTW, its been that low for about two decades now] and Social Security Needs Uncontrolled Immigration OVERPOPULATION [makes it 2.2+, BTW].

    LOL…the WSJ elite robbed the Social Security fund, as these political pigs [most Wash DC politician elite retirement is CSRS and no Social Security don’t depend on it anyway], then don’t tell us we paid into Social Security in a lifetime far more than we’ll ever draw out from that legal contract. Automation and robots make OVERPOPULATION a complete joke now, we need less people now…we don’t need more people to keep this SS contract afloat folks. Period.

  162. 662

    RE: David @ 656
    The Obama/Trump FAA is Getting Grilled By Grand Jury on the MAX 8 This Week

    For illegal FAA certification done by Boeing and the FAA turned a blind eye to it. Its been going for the last decade since diversity replaced skills and experience under Obama’s FAA….the 737 part dwgs are in Japanese now, perhaps FAA should be in Asia a long time ago, trouble is the American taxpayer pays for the FAA…LOL…I’m a retired Safety Engineer and know the WTO ropes, but can now communicate better retired than employed.

    We’re the laughing stock of the world, David and Trump glosses it over a bit to keep the DOD looking good anyway….Hades, our military TOTALLY depends on critical high tech parts from China, its not just aerospace, its the whole kitten kabootal…we gotta get our manufacturing back, our national security depends on it.

    Common sense and truth have been replaced with the phony Chinese Overlord New Greed Deal…

  163. 663

    Seattle Homes Using Mostly LED Light Bulbs Can Do Permanent Retina Damage to Our Eyes

    https://news.yahoo.com/led-light-damage-eyes-health-authority-warns-002221659.html

    That’s why I stocked up on boxes of 3-way incandescent “reading light” bulbs [they were gonna ban them], even the flickering fluorescent bulbs cause eye fatigue at work. They didn’t mention LED TVs, but I’m glad I got one of the last LCD models, do they still sell LCD TVs now? I have a LED TV, but rarely use it.

    The new white LED bulbs may be OK, but after reading the URL above, I’m skeptical as Hades…BTW, vitamin E and C prevent cataracts [I haven’t gotten cataracts either, I take vitamin E and C daily for decades now] ….glaucoma blindness has a cure too, smoke pot…LOL…smoke ’em if ya got ’em….

    I’m looking out my four window home office smiling, no LED lights damaging my retinas….

    But energy efficiency is more important than American Safety Engineering…LOL…the New Greed Deal is causing hearing loss too. I lost half my hearing from the high frequency whine of tire bearings on small cars like 3000 lb Malibus [electric cars, same conundrum]…my ear specialist told me this. See why I bought the 4000 lb Charger [BTW, the Charger is much quieter too than the Challenger, it sports the Chrysler 300 muffler, with no acceleration loss either]. Mustangs run too loud for me too. The Charger eats Mustangs anyway, I accelerated legally to 35 MPH and had a half a car length on the newer Mustang [he ran the red light, I didn’t, LOL]…39.5 MPG hwy at 45-52 MPH on my V-6 Charger computer, independently verified by a friend too…

    Don’t be brainwashed by the Asian/European Overlords.

  164. 664

    RE: steven @ 643

    Error. Someone clicked a wrong box in a drop down menu. I contacted the agent and it is fixed now. Not a foreclosure.

  165. 665
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 660
    Kudos, Ardell.

  166. 666
    Market Psychologist says:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/in-seattle-the-socialists-are-giving-big-business-a-run-for-their-money-literally/

    “Money is just one arbiter of whether a campaign is clicking. But in a year some political pundits keep saying the council is surely overdue to swing to the center, this is an early sign that there may be even more energy and activity buzzing on the far left.

    ‘We are seeing tremendous interest, in justice for renters, in climate policies like the green new deal, in the way people are being priced out of the city,’ said Scott, the Democratic Socialist candidate.”

    —————————————-

    I am a leftist, and this really shocked me. I think we are headed for another decade of change driven by social movements on the scale of the 1930s and 1960s. What is germane here is the cost of housing. Clearly there is widespread discontent, and that does not bode well for the REIC.

  167. 667
    Blake says:

    THIS may reduce demand for housing in this area… you think?
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/05/how-deep-is-boeings-hole.html
    -snip- Let’s take what we know already and what we think we know from the 60 Minutes and the Seattle Times story above:

    . Boeing used only one sensor rather than two to provide input into what was designed as a critical safety feature. That alone is a departure from long-standing industry practice

    . MCAS, rather than making a minimal or mild change, which would seem more appropriate given that the angle of attack sensor input was at much greater risk than usual of being wrong due to having only one reading, instead made an extremely aggressive correction

    . MCAS was insistent and allowed pilots only a short window in which to attempt to regain control before it would kick in again. The duration of the “on” versus “off” time would assure a crash unless the pilots could figure out how to disable MCAS and regain control of flight altitude

    . Boeing changed how the 737 Max switch that turned off automated functions worked. Not only would it kill MCAS, but it would also disable the thumb buttons that pilots used to control the “stabilizer” which they’d need to engage to pull out of an MCAS-induced dive

    . Boeing hid the above information from airlines, pilots, and regulators, and then tried to downplay its importance when it came out in bits and pieces

    If these are all correct, Boeing should burn to the ground.
    (end quote)

    Also: Boeing had no new orders for planes in April. Not only did the troubled 737 Max receive zero new orders since it was grounded March 13. Boeing’s other jets, such as the 787 Dreamliner or the 777, also did not get any new orders last month, according to a company report released Tuesday….

  168. 668
    richard says:

    5% rule for renting vs. buying. I found this rule is handy in making decision.
    Compare house price*5%/12month and monthly rent.
    5% represents unrecoverable loss from buying. Break it down assuming buyer using traditional 80% financing to buy a home
    1% property tax
    1% maintenance cost (average over a couple years)
    3% represents opportunity cost differential between investing 20% down in stock(5% ) and house appreciation(2% ).
    in my case, 740K*5%/12= $3083> current rent $2350, so renting is better.

  169. 669
    biliruben says:

    RE: richard @ 664

    3 years ago, I was able to rent my 740K (what I sold it for) house for $3500.

    Where are you able to rent a 740K house for 2350?

  170. 670
    jjjj says:

    @ richard
    In my case, buying house is investment. 3% up every year. So 740K*2%/12 = 1233 < current rent $2350, so buying is better.

  171. 671
  172. 672
    richard says:

    RE: biliruben @ 665 – I live in this area. you are a greedy landlord. people are so dumb to let you rip them off and hold your bag, sad!

  173. 673
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 667 – I came up with about the same math at Biliruben.

    Are you unconsciously helping an investor with holding costs for a well located, but under-improved lot? Or are you taking advantage of a naive amateur landlord? It seems sad to see greedy tenants frontrunning (did I use that right?) honest people who would be willing to pay the market price.

    I noticed your previous post was 666.

  174. 674
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: richard @ 667

    You are a greedy tenant! You are a bad person! You are ripping off those aged homeowners who are kindly renting to you! You probably don’t clean and expect them to pay the escalating taxes and maintenance. You should feel very very guilty! Pay them more!

    (Another way to look at this from the opposite side of the mirror. Equally absurd, right?)

  175. 675
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 669 – nonsense. how do you know my landlord is an old guy. you are so laughable, what’s wrong with you? your head got kicked by a donkey?

  176. 676
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 668 – what’s wrong with you guys? are you another greedy landlord? feel a little pain because I got a reasonable good deal?

  177. 677
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 671 – Do you worry that I feel as much pain as you did when Biliruben got a fair price on his place?

    Interesting decision rule, btw. Doesn’t it always give you the same answer?

  178. 678
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 672 – I don’t worry anything about you. you got a good deal or not has nothing to do with me.

    you have a brain, use the formula yourself to see if you rip off your tenant hard enough.

  179. 679
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: richard @ 673 – Thanks, I’ll stick with the market.

    If I’d given myself over to that kind of formula thinking, I’d probably have nothing today.

  180. 680
    richard says:

    isn’t it strange that a bunch of bubble deniers (a couple realtors, early home buyers who benefit from price runup, house developer, condo hoarders) who frequent this site and spill their “wise” sometimes lengthy comments?
    Sure, they have every right to poke around and give their opinion. but if they are really so confident that there is no bubble in Seattle housing market, the house price is fair and everything is fine, Why wasting their precious time fighting those who have different opinions. In their eyes, the renters deserve to be renters or they in the best case can be converted to their bag holders. I know one thing for sure is that these guys don’t care a damn thing about them .
    They should go to SeattleTimes to cheer every REIC propaganda article which my help their cause more.

  181. 681
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 670
    How come you don’t use capital letters when you start a sentence?

  182. 682
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 667
    You are ripping your poor poor landlord off. Your landlord is probably struggling to make the mortgage payment while you ride their sweaty back for cheap.

  183. 683
    richard says:

    RE: Erik @ 677 – my landlord is very business savvy. you are over concerned.

  184. 684
    richard says:

    to show my support to buyers stike.i just convert my downpayment saving to 1yr CD(3% apr,2%yield after tax). right or wrong,at least i walk the talk. not like those shady figures who abet other to buy a house and they themself wait for a lower price point to pull the trigger.

  185. 685
    Eastsider says:

    Is it a surprise that most long term tenants pay below market rent? If you are surprised, you don’t understand individual landlording. On the other hand, greedy landlords, especially condo managements, often jack up rent above market after just one year. Yes, they will ripoff the current tenants but give discounts to new tenants. If you don’t think that’s greed, you need to go back to kindergarten. LOL.

  186. 686
    pedaltothemetal says:

    I thought all new paint on those highly textured walls would be just the ticket. 86 days later…
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4627-45th-Ave-S-98118/home/493018

    Maybe it smells like bezos?

  187. 687

    RE: Blake @ 663
    Yes Blake

    The orders on other than the 737 have shrunk to almost zero, the 737 was the cheap Volkswagen , the 777 Cadillacs and 767 Buicks went out of production a long time ago…the 787 Dreamliner was similarly destroyed by outsourcing 90% of the manufacturing and assembled at the South Carolina training center, its full of FOD [foreign object debris] and assembled by village idiots I hear…the 787 workers won’t fly in that 787 plastic monster either…

  188. 688

    RE: Eastsider @ 680
    Wait Until You See the Rent Due On Senior Living Centers in Seattle

    $8,000/mo x 12= approx $100K $CASH$ per year…that’s not chump change.

  189. 689

    RE: Eastsider @ 680
    If You’re Staying in Seattle 5-10 Years

    Why would I rent at $3500/mo when I could buy a Condo for that amount? Maybe I’m missing something?

  190. 690
    richard says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 684 – who rent at $3500 level? not many. for that amount of rent, your living space should be much bigger than that of a shitty condo. also do you think about the ever-increasing HOA fee of condo?

  191. 691
    biliruben says:

    RE: richard @ 667 – I don’t have any idea who you think I am.

    I rented my house out a few years ago for the going rate for a 3-2 with a view, thinking I would move back and want to live in it in a few years. But didn’t like being a landlord, and didn’t really like the neighborhood anyway, so we sold it. Hindsight, after 20% increases during those years, says mistake, but water under the bridge.

    Anyway, I am moving back and trying to decide whether to rent or buy. Sure, good tenants often should get, and do get, a discount to keep a good tenant in the house. How that helps us, I have no idea.

    Going rate of a 3-2 house worth ~700-750K is clearly far over $2350, and nearly always north of $3000, unless there is something seriously wrong with the house.

    So for us, it really appears that buying makes more sense, if we can figure out how to actually purchase in a town that has become the land of million dollar fixers.

    Unless you want to move out and sublet your sweet deal to us.

  192. 692
    biliruben says:

    I recommend you go look at rentals on Zillow. Of the hundreds of 3-2s, a quick scan of the map shows a small handful of houses, near the city-limits, around what you pay. They are beat up and often not too much bigger than a condo. The vast majority are in the 3000-5000 range, with some significantly higher.

    I am not going to critique your formula, but even assuming it’s reasonable, renting is a pretty crappy deal in Seattle.

  193. 693
  194. 694
    Realistic says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 681:

    I thought all new paint on those highly textured walls would be just the ticket. 86 days later…
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4627-45th-Ave-S-98118/home/493018

    Even after repainting, the exterior looks almost as bad as it was last year:
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4627-45th-Ave-S-98118/home/493018/nwmls-1316236

    How much do you guys think it costs in labor and materials to flip a house like this? I’m curious what’s the actual profit this flipper was aiming for. The remodel seems quite extensive. The difference between the last sale and the current asking is $157k. If they used hard money at 2% origination + 1% / mo for 9 months it comes down to approx. $50k (assuming $450k loan) + another $31k for agent commissions (1% Redfin + 3% buyer’s agent on $775k). In total that’s around $81k in transaction expenses, which leaves only $76k for labor and materials. It doesn’t seem like there is much room for profit.

  195. 695
    Joe says:

    RE: Realistic @ 689

    Assume no loan origination paid on that.

    Then you have $157k price spread, less $30k RE commission, less $25K materials, gets net profit of about $100k. Even if they contract out 300 hours labor at $75/hour, the flipper still keeps $75K for his own labor and profit…..IF he can sell for asking price. Do four of those a year and you have a $300k income.

    I’m not sure whether flippers claim the profit as capital gains or whether they call it self-employment income. Self-employment income would be taxed a lot higher because it is subject to income and self-employment tax.

  196. 696
    No Name Guy says:

    Will be interesting to see how the mix is involved in this, but could this have been pop goes the bubble?

    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-housing-prices-drop-amid-a-glut-of-homes-for-sale-study-finds

  197. 697
    richard says:

    RE: biliruben @ 687 – I agree with you renting sucks. Even you got a discount in rent, it is still way too expensive. At some point, some renters may become permanent renter. If as you wish, the house price keep rising, then it is just a game of smaller pool of people. In Seattle, maybe only Amazon employee, rich Chinese and existing home owners, you guys profit from each other by trading house to each other. Holding cost of house is not small, there always some unrecoverable loss. I’d like to see recent buyer suffer with big holding cost if they hold their house for a longer time. (unfortunately there are always some bag holder, sad! ) I understand once you bought a house, it is a one way street in your mindset(price gotta go up)
    I live in a convenient location, not some crappy remote area off the city.

  198. 698
  199. 699
    JustNoise says:

    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-has-2nd-toughest-housing-market-in-america-for-first-time-buyers-zillow-says

    “Nearly half of all buyers are purchasing their first homes…”

    ^ Wow, wonder where the supporting stats are for that.

  200. 700
    Realistic says:

    RE: Joe @ 690
    I think many flippers use hard money loans which are pretty expensive. But let’s say this is the best case scenario of a flipper who paid all cash. He would still have a significant opportunity cost on $618k over 9+ months. That’s at least $20k. And we haven’t even included closing costs yet, which with excise tax would be another $15k.

  201. 701
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Joe @ 690

    For some flippers, this is a very full time job and it is truly hard work. They know how to do all the finish trades (tile, slab, finish carpentry, paint, landscaping, even kicking carpet). They have their own tools. They use their own money or family money. The wife is a real estate agent so that cuts transaction costs because she gets paid on both ends.

    In that case, this kind of a deal might work. Otherwise, there is a fair amount of risk and not enough return to justify it.

  202. 702
    richard says:

    RE: Realistic @ 695 – hope these flippers got hit hard and even go bankrupt

  203. 703
    kenmorem says:

    By richard @ 697:

    RE: Realistic @ 695 – hope these flippers got hit hard and even go bankrupt

    that’s the spirit.

    in the meantime, i hope you are run over by a bus today and your family suffers financial setbacks for generations.

  204. 704
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 698 – Wow. That’s just uncalled for.

  205. 705
    JustNoise says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 699RE: kenmorem @ 698 – Definitely escalated quickly. “I don’t like what you said. Here’s a death wish.” O_O

  206. 706
    richard says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 698 – you head got kicked by a donkey? whats the matter with you?

  207. 707
    AMod(est)Proposal says:

    This site desperately needs moderation. I’ve been on it for a couple of years now and it’s getting worse and worse. Comments are becoming so toxic.

  208. 708
    Notme says:

    Flipper debt donkeys
    stubborn and recalcitrant
    and they kick heads, too

    -a bubble haiku

  209. 709
    Mikal says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 699 – Amen brother. He’s the kind of guy that wants Amazon to leave just so he can afford a house close in, but doesn’t realize the uncoupling of that would make us Detroit.

  210. 710
    northender says:

    RE: Mikal @ 703
    No, clearly kenmoreken was making the point that it’s not appropriate to wish bad things on people.

    What is so wrong with flippers that anyone should wish bankruptcy on them? They make a large investment in the hope of making a profit and take risk doing so. That is called capitalism. As they flip they create jobs and pay a lot of taxes. And improve a little piece of the world.

  211. 711
    randomseattledummie says:

    RE: Realistic @ 689

    Here are some basic figures on this place. They put in around 100k in renovations, probably a little more. The public records show that they have a couple of loans however they do not appear to be a hard money loans (not positive). Assuming their carrying costs are around $4,000/month (they are probably higher). They will probably pay around 7% to sell it. Let’s assume they get their new list price of 775 and close 2 months from now. With those assumptions (most of which are generous) they will lose around 50k on this deal.

  212. 712

    Now Is the Time to Buy If Mortgage Rates are Stopping You

    The 30 year rates are at a low point now, 4.05%….grab it up now? Trump was concerned about rising interest rates and when Trump yells at the obstructions with a mean red face at them, they mind their thin skinned angry President….LOL

    America is partially a lawless greedy mixture now, it needs a mean leader to keep the crooks in line…

  213. 713

    RE: randomseattledummie @ 705
    Seattle Money Pit 1920 Museum Pieces

    Aren’t normal home maintenance either….try 2-3 times [or more] than modern housing and its a continuous bill that never stops too…the fun goes on and on….

    If ya buy a Seattle money pit, Bring Mass Wads (BMW) of $CASH$….LOL

  214. 714

    RE: richard @ 685
    Yes Richard

    I didn’t say buying a dinky condo is a desirable, remember the old Baby Boomer joke in the 80s about condos….”its like catching Herpes”…its just that if you part with like $4000/mo, you want to sell in like 5+ years and get some of it back at least…if not all it or perhaps even profit [like Erik] too.

    Better than a kick in the rump…..LOL

  215. 715

    RE: Realistic @ 689
    Profiting Off Home Remodeling is a Slam Dunk Loss

    Las Vegas has much better odds.

  216. 716
    kenmorem says:

    By northender @ 704:

    RE: Mikal @ 703
    No, clearly kenmoreken was making the point that it’s not appropriate to wish bad things on people.

    What is so wrong with flippers that anyone should wish bankruptcy on them? They make a large investment in the hope of making a profit and take risk doing so. That is called capitalism. As they flip they create jobs and pay a lot of taxes. And improve a little piece of the world.

    glad someone understood the point of my post.

    so much bitterness by the renter-victim crowd on this site.

  217. 717

    RE: Mikal @ 703
    I imagine AMZ Workers at $13/hr are at the MASS Seattle Area Homeless Camps too…$2000/mo rent for 1bdrms would suck them dry…I saw pictures of them recently, filth and needles galore in “hidden from view” beautiful Seattle. We need more robots at AMZ replacing people? We need more immigration in Seattle? LOL

    The Open Border Party (OBP) relies on wild guesses and lies to assemble a brainwashing campaign?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/03/24/seattle_is_dying_drugs_and_homelessness_in_seattle.html

    37,000 Homeless Veterans is an American disgrace too….Hades, the foreign invaders get better FAR BETTER emergency housing than legal citizen American poor in high priced Sanctuary Cities…Hey Gates, ante up and house the homeless in Seattle….African malaria is less important until we fix our own country’s legal citizens.

    Hey DNC, Trumps gonna win 2020 because ya ignore this horrifying problem.

  218. 718

    RE: JustNoise @ 694

    Home Deals in Seattle are Getting to be ALL $CASH$ ONLY

    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/2016/01/cash-sales-for-seattle-area-homes-spike-38-percent.html

    Practically no one qualifies for real mortgages now anymore?

    “We Buy Ugly Homes” $CASH$…LOL

  219. 719

    RE: Notme @ 702
    LOL Notme

    Are the Donkeys Like Open Border Party?

  220. 720

    RE: northender @ 704
    LOL northender

    Even I admit I’m self absorbed and greedy, we all are….if no one protects our back then ya better do it yourself. Its like saying all taxi drivers should come from India or Mexican restaurant workers from Mexico…sounds Racist to me. Vote your pocketbook, I do. Everyone else does.

  221. 721

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 651
    My Giant King County Property Tax Bill Going to School the Sanctuary City OVERPOPULATION Last April

    Is 55% schools, “Chinese foreign student bent U of W” and new school construction included. Why do we need new schools when our national birthrate is 1.7 [depopulation]???? Try 2.2+[exponential population growth] with immigration, obviously…. and why does U of W need to soak us too [they get plenty of double out of state tuition from the Chinese]?

    We’re getting soaked unnecessarily by HORRIFYING organized crime…the avg tax gouge is rent sized now, about $600/mo just property tax on a $700K home. That’s not chump change.

  222. 722

    RE: OMG SWE @ 623
    Hey Troll

    Got anything to share besides criticism of bloggers?

    I thought so.

  223. 723
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 716 – And yet you seem to be more angry and bitter than any of the renters on here.

  224. 724
    richard says:

    RE: northender @ 704 – somebody’s pain probably is my gain, that is also called capitalism. You are either being naïve or pretending not knowing the brutal reality of capitalism. In last crash, wall street firms bought credit default swap betting housing market will fail. It is like buying insurance betting your house will be burnt down(have you ever watch big short?). Yes, this is capitalism.

  225. 725

    The Article Doesn’t Say

    But are the 100s of thousands of illegal aliens just be shipped to Sanctuary Cities?

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/ice-hire-contractor-transport-225000-migrant-shelters

    Baton up the hatches for lots more King County school property tax increases, etc, etc….

    At a theater near you soon….BTW, I attended the Kent City Hall Toastmasters yesterday and spoke on entertaining with humor…..my evaluator [a Millenial African American] told me to “just be SWE”…don’t try to lighten any of it up, at all. They audience roared in applause [and laughter] too…even the political stuff…I’ll try to change. They want me to.

  226. 726

    RE: dude @ 598
    OK MSM is Much More Reliable…

    Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter ;-)

  227. 727
    kenmorem says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 723:

    RE: kenmorem @ 716 – And yet you seem to be more angry and bitter than any of the renters on here.

    post 702 – richard says he wishes flippers suffer and go bankrupt.
    i call him out for being a d-bag, clearly sarcastically.
    you overreact and think i’m angry and bitter about the local RE market.

    logic disconnect.

    RE market has been fine to me. increased my net worth ~$0.75M since buying in 2006 and 2014.

    i saved money with a middle class job and below median paycheck and somehow made it work.

    me:
    no smartphone
    no TV
    never eat out
    bike to work
    don’t buy new clothes
    luxury activity = hiking/climbing

    result:
    save money for downpayment
    buy home
    benefit from the fact that $ generally goes up and to the right
    no need to complain about unfair nature of world, even though tech incomes = 2+X mine

    anything else?

  228. 728
    richard says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 716 – hi kenmorem, let me warn you, you are way out of line yesterday. There is nothing wrong for me to express my opinion without hurting anybody. If you are not hiding behind the screen, what you wrote yesterday will be thought of a death threat and I will call the police. you feel a little comfort today because somebody as sick as yourself applaud your words? Actually you look like a coward.

  229. 729
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 727 – You said you hope he gets run over by a bus. In my opinion that is over the line.

  230. 730
    kenmorem says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 729:

    RE: kenmorem @ 727 – You said you hope he gets run over by a bus. In my opinion that is over the line.

    ok, fine. i rescind my bus comment, which was meant to make a point, not to be serious (geesh). instead, let me replace it with: i hope all your investments tank and that you find yourself hurting financially and in serious need of help. is that better? hopefully that cannot be twisted to be a death threat. it’s no different than saying “i hope some random flipper loses his shirt”, right???

  231. 731
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 730 – Fair enough!

  232. 732
    Realistic says:

    By randomseattledummie @ 711:

    RE: Realistic @ 689

    Here are some basic figures on this place. They put in around 100k in renovations, probably a little more. The public records show that they have a couple of loans however they do not appear to be a hard money loans (not positive). Assuming their carrying costs are around $4,000/month (they are probably higher). They will probably pay around 7% to sell it. Let’s assume they get their new list price of 775 and close 2 months from now. With those assumptions (most of which are generous) they will lose around 50k on this deal.

    Where in public records can one check what loans someone has?

    I don’t think they would have such high carrying costs as $4k/mo though. Let’s say they didn’t use cash or hard money but used something in the middle like HELOC on their primary home at 5%. That’s $2083/mo on $500k. The property tax and insurance would be around $600/mo. That comes down to $30k of carrying costs over 11 months if it sells in July. Closing fees, excise tax and commissions $54k. So, $84k total.

    Cost of materials I’d say around $40-50k and labor the same. Opportunity cost on the down payment of $118k is another $5k. With these assumptions the loss would be between $12k – $32k.

  233. 733
    richard says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 730 – In my flipper fail message, did I mention you , kenmorem? Your head really got kicked by a donkey?
    Next time, you better think twice before putting out something threating somebody like me. you are a coward.

  234. 734
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Thinking of bezos in the bubble, and a loose affiliation of billionaires

  235. 735
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The second definition makes some sense.
    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bezos

  236. 736
    Justme says:

    RE: Mikal @ 709

    >>Amen brother. He’s the kind of guy that wants Amazon to leave just so he can afford a house close in, but doesn’t realize the uncoupling of that would make us Detroit.

    Mikal is such a troll. He pretends that there is no other alternative than (a) frontrunners overpricing Seattle and (b) being Detroit.

  237. 737
    David says:

    Found it! LESS than $100k for a house in metro-Seattle: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/12438-3rd-Ave-SW-98146/home/183228

    What is wrong with house flippers if they improve the property? I hope they knock this one down though. In fact, there is actually vacant land in Burien I have seen.

  238. 738
    Justme says:

    RE: David @ 737

    99k was the LIST price. The actual sales price? If it also SOLD for 99k it means the low-end teardown market is officially dead (dead meaning that no developer wants to have anything to do with low-end teardowns).

  239. 739
    biliruben says:

    richard says:
    May 16, 2019 at 3:13 pm

    “RE: biliruben @ 687 – I agree with you renting sucks. Even you got a discount in rent, it is still way too expensive. At some point, some renters may become permanent renter. If as you wish, the house price keep rising, then it is just a game of smaller pool of people.”

    Why would you even think that would be the case? I’m on record as advocating for a number of policies, here and elsewhere that would dampen rising housing prices, including taking away the mortgage interest deduction, increasing density oriented zoning, and subsidizing rent through tax-breaks based on income.

    I hate the rising housing prices and think it’s is morphing Seattle into a city a barely know.

  240. 740
    pedaltothemetal says:

    The ball shiner with the baboon heart, These are the days of miracle and wonder.

  241. 741
    BacktoBasics says:

    There is nothing wrong with flipper to make money with their hard earned money and hard sweat labor to make a living. In Seattle, there are so many old house are out dated and in my opinion not livable. Flipper improves the condition to better the living conditions. There is nothing wrong or right on the Seattle bubble. It is totally market behavior: supply vs demand. There are so many new comer to this great city for better life and living. Of course, you can buy a house next to Warren Buffet’s Ohama NE for $200K. Nobody is forcing to to buy into Seattle bubble.

  242. 742
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Talking about bezos on the soles of her shoes

  243. 743
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By biliruben @ 692:

    I am not going to critique your formula, but even assuming it’s reasonable, renting is a pretty crappy deal in Seattle.

    You must not be accounting for all the home expenses. The 10 year break points for renting in King County for upper middle class and a full mortgage are:

    R3100 = 600k
    R3500 = 750k
    R4000 = 850k
    R4500 = 1million

    Includes: Tax laws, current mort rate, loss of inv income on DP, maintenance, prop tax, appreciation (low), investment rate (medium), and closing costs + realtor fee

    If you think housing will appreciate significantly from here, or if you are staying for 10+ years, buy for sure. If you think housing goes back to normal appreciation, use above guidelines, especially if you have decent savings. If you think housing will fall, rent.

  244. 744
    Justme says:

    weekend preview

    The biggest King County SFH inventory spike of the last 3 years is in the works for this weekend.

    While the pre-memorial-day weekend often is the biggest new listing weekend of the year, this year it is a blockbuster.

    Buyers: Don’t be tempted. Keep striking.

  245. 745

    RE: richard @ 724
    I Agree Capitalism Has Its Faults

    But it makes Socialism failures in Venezuela look like walk in the park.

  246. 746

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 741
    Buffet Still Has His 2006 Cadillac and Drives It Himself Too

    Have you seen a 2006 Cadillac? Its beautiful, big and ritzy…makes the 2019 models look like cheap tin can Corollas…I imagine Buffet is like SWE, drives under 5000 mi/yr…our CARBON FOOTPRINT makes the avg 15-20K/yr Prius look like an energy PIG too.

    The trucks will flatten all the cars made today…the crash tests ignore this fact.

  247. 747

    RE: biliruben @ 739
    Yes billiruben

    I struggled all my life in the 70s and 80s trying to save fast enough to qualify for a home loan….I couldn’t. Ya need two incomes and they better be HUGE incomes too. My single income was way above avg, so what…finally a sweetheart deal popped up and I grabbed it up. Its all a poker game and most lose.

    Make your own poker rules and there’s a glimmer of life….and be careful divorce rates are like Herpes, unavoidable…divorces and foreclosures in Seattle go hand in hand…

  248. 748
    Deerhawke says:

    Closed on a home I built this week.

    Is it a different market from Q1-2018? You bet. Instead of being pre-sold as we normally are, we had to go through that old sales exercise of broker’s open, open house, etc. Dozens and dozens of agents and their buyers came through before three offers materialized. Sold in a week, closed all-cash two weeks later. And the sale price in $/sf was just a tad bit below Q1-2018 levels.

    Just one data point for you.

    I don’t mean to over-generalize from my experience. But I will tell you that the single family market this spring is doing fine.

    It is not the panic buying market that came to a crescendo in Q1-2018. Buyers now feel that they have a bit of time to make an offer. But if they feel that the property is special, they give themselves a few days to think it over, and then don’t hesitate a lot. Their agents make the effort to ask if there is anyone else interested and if there might be other offers to compete against. Then magically all the offers show up on the same day within a few hours of each other.

    Are there some properties sitting that would not have in 2017? Definitely.

    Poor location, poor access, poor light, no views, no charm, confused floor-plan, cheap build, me-too architecture, weird architecture, no creativity, inconsistent design theme, the same old 2015 finishes, the same damned boring modern box, , etc. etc.

    In 2017, it was all selling and selling fast– buyers knew that they didn’t have much choice and looked past the deficiencies.

    2019 is not a desperate market. It is a more balanced, normal single-family market.

  249. 749

    RE: kenmorem @ 727
    LOL kenmorem

    Have you tried a fifth of black label mixed in too? It sure fuzzes reality and alcoholism is rampant in Seattle anyway…we’re #2 City in America guzzling booze….LOL…join ’em?

    I hear they drink like fish in Detroit too because of the depression and cold winters…ohhhh…BTW, the “Chronically Used” iPhones cause depression they say, so cutting that monster out of your budget was a smart move ;-)

    My at home office has a laptop….why would I want a dinky screen iPhone replacing my 17 inch screen? I do have an iPhone I rarely use [the batteries are usually dead]…a $19.99 3G from Walmart with an $8/mo user AT&T Go Phone fee…no contract.

  250. 750

    RE: Deerhawke @ 747
    One Home Sold is Not a Trend

    But it means this to SWE….you’ll stick around the area and honor your warranty. Warranty contracts are becoming toilet paper, but your’s appears OK as you allege. Lots of contractors use illegal alien cheap illegal labor in Issaquah, etc…and raise their prices STEEPLY too….if you use cheap illegal labor Deerhawke, do you pass the savings on to the consumers or are you like the farmers, you pocket it all and raise prices anyway?

    BTW, farmers are worse than building contractors, they bring in foreign H-2C farm workers and charge legal American tax payers for the school costs, sewage drainage enlargements, etc…so China and Canada get cheap soy and pigs. While Americans pay higher prices for soy and pigs because of the farm subsidies creating shortages…viva farm tariffs too!

    If I was looking for a new home, you sound like, as bad as it is, you’re the best out there….I’d buy from you Deerhawke if I really wanted a new home…;-)

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.