Cheapest parts of King County still make up the largest share of sales, even as prices there grow the most

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It’s been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end regions.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

  • low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
  • mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
  • high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

  • low end: $379,000-$593,750
  • mid range: $615,000-$1,090,000
  • high end: $814,037-$2,586,183

First let’s look at the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area

The last few years have each followed a similar pattern: while sales in the mid-range regions maintain a fairly steady share of sales in the county each month, sales in the cheaper parts of the county (South King) surge in the winter and dip in the summer, with sales in the most expensive parts (Eastside) doing the opposite. Except for a big spike in Seattle in February, so far we’re seeing the same pattern this year.

The raw number of sales in all three tiers increased between February and March. Month-over-month sales were up 35 percent in the low tier, up six percent in the middle tier, and up 42 percent in the high tier.

Meanwhile, year-over-year sales were down in all three tiers. Compared to a year ago, sales decreased five percent in the low tier, fell seven percent in the middle tier, and dropped four percent in the high tier.

As of March 2019, 37.9 percent of sales were in the low end regions (basically flat from 37.8 percent a year ago), 32.0 percent in the mid range (down slightly from 32.6 percent a year ago), and 30.1 percent in the high end (up from 29.6 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family

Here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area since 2000

During the housing bubble that burst in 2008, South King consistently had the largest share of sales. We’ve seen the same thing over the last few years as prices have once again grown to astronomical levels. In the lead-up to the big 2008 bust, sales in South King fell as sales in Seattle gained ground. February’s spike in Seattle’s sales share could be a portent of a similar pattern, or it could just be a blip. We’ll see over the next few months.

Finally, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Median Price of Single Family Homes Sold

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but only the low tier is currently at an all-time record high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose three percent, the middle tier increased eight percent, and the high tier gained nine percent.

Eighteen of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in March had a higher median price than a year ago, while 23 had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 5.2 percent, middle tier: up 0.1 percent, high tier: down 4.7 percent.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,162 comments:

  1. 751
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 747

    Okay, so bubble-monger Deerhawke finally managed to sell his most recent and oh-so-special Teardown Taj-Mahal.

    >>It is not the panic buying market that came to a crescendo in Q1-2018.

    Indeed. Notice this remark, Dear Reader. There was no talk of panic-buying in or before Q1-2018 by Deerhawke or anyone else of the large group of bubble-mongers that frequent this blog. Basically, many of them know quite a bit about the market, but what they tell you about it in real time is not the truth at all. Deerhawke in particular is the great orator of historical revisionism. If you bought in Q1-2018, you got screwed. And if you buy now you’ll get screwed. Buyer beware!

    >>Dozens and dozens of agents and their buyers came through before three offers materialized.

    Maybe in about a year *maybe* we will hear the truth about how Deerhawke just barely dodged disaster and was able to unload his McMossBox on some greater fool.

    >>And the sale price in $/sf was just a tad bit below Q1-2018 levels.

    But you overpaid for the teardown, right? And then managed to avoid complete disaster only at the last minute?

    >>2019 is not a desperate market. It is a more balanced, normal single-family market.

    LOL, after dozens of visiting groups he got three offers. Deerhawke is a crafty guy, he timed the (repeat?) listing to the absolute peak spring cycle of the house-hot-housewives. The sellers are getting quite desperate, that is the truth.

    Keep striking, buyers and potential buyers. Do not even make offers. Inventory just keeps growing, and lots of product is sitting unsold, with more new price reductions coming every week. Weekend inventory update report coming within the hour. The jump in inventory this week is the biggest in multiple years.

  2. 752
    Justme says:

    Weekend inventory update graphs are up, please check the link

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1129804666911334400

    Please follow and retweet. Data needs to be socialized with as many potential buyers and sellers as possible. More commentary soon to follow right here on SB.

    Buyer strike is alive and well, and causing more price reductions. Keep striking. Let’s bust this bubble, and good!

    #housingbubble #buyerstrike #bustthebubble

  3. 753
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition

    Commentary: This weekend is the weekend before the Memorial Day weekend, historically the absolute peak weekend for listing and selling houses in King County (Seattle and suburbs). But this year is special. The spike in inventory is extra large, and KC SFH active inventory peaked at 4325 houses for sale on Friday night. 2012 was the last year the KC SFH inventory exceeded the current count. That’s right, this week in 2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018 were all lower than this week in 2019. Why is this happening? Well, it is because lots of product is coming on the market, but even at the peak of buying season, product purchases are lest than 50% of what is being offered.

    Product sales continue to lag new listings, and many sellers are being left behind. Price reductions are commonplace, with 321 price reductions for KC SFH product the last 7 days. Many >4wk old listings are languishing on the market. There is little doubt that the bubble-bust is in full swing. There are lots of sellers, but not enough willing buyers at the prices being offered. Many buyers are on strike, refusing to buy at currently offered prices. Sellers have gone from “I think I’ll wait another year” to “Better get my house on the market before it is too late”. Still, many sellers are over-pricing the market by a significant amount, and their product is languishing.

    Absorption of product continues to be well below 50%, with SFH absorption to pending at merely 39% for the last 4 weeks. Clearly, many buyers are unwilling to participate at the current price levels. That pesky buyer strike, again. Buyers that find themselves competing with another buyer will do well in just withdrawing from bidding. Better yet, don;t do any bidding at all, and join the strike. The sellers had their seller strike in 2013-2018, and uninformed buyers engaged in panic-buying. No more. It is time to show the sellers who really sets the price.

    https://imgur.com/account/favorites/DJwONfZ

    2019-05-18 King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-18 King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-18 King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017
    2019-05-18 King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017

    The graphs compare 2017-2019 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year, a fact that was much ballyhooed by the sell-side and inflation-mongers of the property market. But the shoe is now on the other foot. Combine the increase in inventory with a much more realistic criterion that 1month worth of active inventory is all that is needed for a “balanced market”, the property market has shifted radically since March 2018 and continues to do so in 2019. Click the link and scroll to see the graphs. Click on each graph for an enlarged view. ESC and scroll to navigate.

    Many potential homebuyers in King County went on strike in April 2018, and over a year later, the strike is still going strong, with Case-Shiller index dropping for 8 months in a row in the expensive areas, while lower-priced subregions are having a small spring price bump, due to foolish or uninformed or priced-out buyers that are still overbidding on product in the lower-priced subregions.

  4. 754
    IssaquahResident says:

    Obvious bubble burst! Feel sorry for the uninformed buyers who pull the trigger these days.

  5. 755
    Realistic says:

    RE: Justme @ 752

    Thanks Justme. I am one of those buyers waiting on the sidelines for a better time to buy. However, I do have 3 observations that don’t quite align with the buyer’s strike theory and I’d like to hear what you and others think:

    1) Recently the weekly inventory swings (delta between highs and lows over one week periods) has been much larger than in the previous 2 years, which would mean more houses are going pending than in 2017-2018 during the same time frames.

    2) The spike this weekend is indeed very high but only if we consider the delta from the last week’s lowest point to the highest. Looking at the delta between the last weekend’s peak and today’s, the relative spike is a lot smaller than in 2018 and on par with 2017.

    3) The condo inventory line is barely increasing (it’s going almost sideways). A far cry from the 2018 trend. If this general trend continues the condo inventory this summer will be much lower than last year. If condos are supposed to be the equivalent of canaries in coal mines, as previously mentioned on this forum, they don’t seem to forecast a strong buyer’s market.

  6. 756
    David says:

    Seller’s Strike: Never sell below your asking price. Wait it out. Unless it is absolute crap.

    Be like Buffett: Sell when the price is high – otherwise, don’t sell.

  7. 757

    RE: Deerhawke @ 747

    Pretty much concur, though had good luck with a Seattle condo listing recently. Pretty much the same as you are saying. Sold to the first buyer in but took 5 days for that buyer to make the offer. They did their homework well beforehand. I wouldn’t call the condo market dead.

    Last weekend there was a 9 offer by review date here on an older single family in Kirkland that likely had the old $100,000 over asking cap on it. Priced at $1M. I know it sold for at least $60k over asking. I wouldn’t call it panic buying. Just a lot of people wanting the same house. Meanwhile a fairly identical house with fewer recent remodel items was sitting around when this one listed and is still sitting around now. So bright and shiny objects are drawing the bigger crowds. Of course with 9 offers…no inspection contingency.

    I’m a little quieter on detail this time of year because I’m too in the thick of it to share. I did correct that foreclosure error in the comments above. But I tend not to talk about the market in high season vs 4th and 1st quarter. Just wanted you to know that I concur for the most part with your post, as usual.

    Once I make my prediction for the year, as I did early this year, I don’t need to run the data while I’m juggling all the balls in the air.

  8. 758
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Realistic @ 754:

    RE: Justme @ 752

    3) The condo inventory line is barely increasing (it’s going almost sideways). A far cry from the 2018 trend. If this general trend continues the condo inventory this summer will be much lower than last year. If condos are supposed to be the equivalent of canaries in coal mines, as previously mentioned on this forum, they don’t seem to forecast a strong buyer’s market.

    This will probably get nitpicked by someone as somehow anecdotal, but I have saved searches on Zillow and Redfin for downtown Seattle condos, and the number of listings are up 70% over this same time last year. But again, that’s just the map parameters I’ve saved for what I consider downtown. I’ve kept the maps the same though, so it is an apples to apples comparison to last year.

  9. 759
    richard says:

    above 1m sfh and condo market is dying.
    suckers and rich amazonians compete for sfh below 1m sfh and think they got a deal. that’s it.
    my friend is selling his townhome in greenlake soontobe shithole due to high density residential constructions.

  10. 760
    Matt P says:

    RE: Justme @ 752 – Link not working anymore.

  11. 761
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt P @ 759

    Try this link as an alternative. Not sure why the problem occurs. I tested in incognito mode and experienced, like you, that the original link fails. May have something to do with how sharing and “favorites” are approved at imgur. Imgur can be a bit arbitrary sometimes.

    https://imgur.com/a/DJwONfZ

  12. 762
    Matt P says:

    By richard @ 758:

    above 1m sfh and condo market is dying.
    suckers and rich amazonians compete for sfh below 1m sfh and think they got a deal. that’s it.
    my friend is selling his townhome in greenlake soontobe shithole due to high density residential constructions.

    Ah yes, NYC, most dense city in the US – such a craphole.

  13. 763
    Erik says:

    Ardell sold another condo for me. She got the highest price ever in the complex. When I bought the unit, it was probably the worst unit in the building. I did a nice remodel and paid a special assessment for the new owner that I heard about being planned for this winter. I like clean deals and I wouldn’t want to dump someone else with an assessment when I knew it was coming.

    This condo was smaller than some of the other units in the building with one outdoor parking spot. Other larger units have 2 indoor parking spots. The view is nice, but again, not the best in the building. I believe that we got the highest price of any unit sold in the building because I did a nice remodel and didn’t cut any corners. I paid the special assessment ahead of time. Ardell did a great job staging the condo and took some amazing pictures. Ardell is an excellent agent and I totally recommend her to anyone that likes selling quickly for a great price.

  14. 764
    David says:

    I just visited a housing development in White Center that is literally on the same street as disguised Section 8/Public housing – all mixed together. These sfh’s are $750k.

    NOTHING would make me feel better about my life than living in a house I am paying $750k for and living next to someone who gets theirs basically for free. Because NOTHING instills pride of ownership like a neighbor who almost certainly will never spend a thin cent on anything maintenance related.

    And you get to listen to them ululate to Allah 5 times a day.

  15. 765

    RE: David @ 763
    The Data isn’t There for Trending

    Of course it isn’t, its embarrassing and could cost Open Border Party (OBP) politicians a loss. But I noticed that even Habitat for Humanity gives free homes to foreign immigrants at a much higher rate than legal citizen poor. The OBP board at this particular charity [?] picks the lucky lottery winners???..

  16. 766

    RE: Erik @ 762
    Great News Erik

    Now ya get a backyard for your new baby? I’m so happy for you ;-)

    Yes I’ve always recommended Ardell for the job…she rarely misses the small details…

    I

  17. 767

    RE: David @ 755
    Trump Did the Same Thing

    All flippers that make big bucks do it…

  18. 768

    RE: softwarengineer @ 765
    Hey Erik

    I have good news too! My 30 YO daughter and husband are coming to Seattle from Kansas City next month for a ten day visit….they live in my Kansas house there and it will be their’s soon too….time for prime rib and caviar…LOL

    Their life in Kansas City has been great too, he sings in a Celtic band and she knows all the lyrics too ;-)

    Life is good!

  19. 769

    Seattle Has the Answer to Open Up More Condo/SFH Real Estate land Availability

    Close all the cemeterys and replace them with building lots….

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/washington-state-braces-for-eco-friendly-human-composting/ar-AABzXSk

    I hope the old cemeterys aren’t Poltergeist haunts building lots…LOL

  20. 770
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 762:

    I did a nice remodel and paid a special assessment for the new owner that I heard about being planned for this winter.

    Just want to note that pre-paying special assessment is uncommon in condo sales and it probably has something to do with your unit getting the highest price ever in the complex. Subtract the special assessment and your unit is probably sold at the same price as the other units.

  21. 771
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 747:

    Closed on a home I built this week.

    Is it a different market from Q1-2018? You bet. Instead of being pre-sold as we normally are, we had to go through that old sales exercise of broker’s open, open house, etc. Dozens and dozens of agents and their buyers came through before three offers materialized. Sold in a week, closed all-cash two weeks later. And the sale price in $/sf was just a tad bit below Q1-2018 levels.

    Just one data point for you.

    I don’t mean to over-generalize from my experience. But I will tell you that the single family market this spring is doing fine.

    It is not the panic buying market that came to a crescendo in Q1-2018. Buyers now feel that they have a bit of time to make an offer. But if they feel that the property is special, they give themselves a few days to think it over, and then don’t hesitate a lot. Their agents make the effort to ask if there is anyone else interested and if there might be other offers to compete against. Then magically all the offers show up on the same day within a few hours of each other.

    Are there some properties sitting that would not have in 2017? Definitely.

    Poor location, poor access, poor light, no views, no charm, confused floor-plan, cheap build, me-too architecture, weird architecture, no creativity, inconsistent design theme, the same old 2015 finishes, the same damned boring modern box, , etc. etc.

    In 2017, it was all selling and selling fast– buyers knew that they didn’t have much choice and looked past the deficiencies.

    2019 is not a desperate market. It is a more balanced, normal single-family market.

    Certainly looks like a soft(er) market to me.

    – Presales are gone.
    All cash buyer! I bet nearly all your previous sales were to buyers with loans.
    – Sold price is below 2018Q1. Your worst margin in 5 years?
    – I see new constructions in Kirkland on crappy lots that are literately under the powerline and some even come with the tower! These builders and their buyers are going to lose money.

    Not saying the market is bad for sellers (yet) but good days are over.

  22. 772

    RE: softwarengineer @ 767
    Here’s the Junior/Senior College Money to the U of W Alternative Use

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1126-S-49th-Dr_Kansas-City_KS_66106_M75465-10217

    Its really a 1500 SF 3 bdrm with weight room play area attached and piano included…the garage was remodeled…check out the back yard for kids to play in….GIANT, compared to Seattle….

    Prices in Kansas City are holding steady the last year and property tax is like down to $490 every 6 months….it was $512 last year…schools included. They have a dinky state income tax that is chump change compared to “our property tax minus their property tax and state income tax together”…Ben’s wages have been sky rocketing and they easily live on one income in my family estate planning…Milenial Women all want to be housewives at home [70% polled]. They make Seattle pay with Detroit house prices and moderate temperatures too [similar to Seattle weather, a bit hotter in summer but all homes in Kansas have central air]. Period.

    I love Seattle, but its become a hard place to afford [degreed or not]. Accept it and keep the your kids out of your basements….LOL

  23. 773
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 751

    Whoa Daddy! That’s one heck of an inventory spike.

    The interesting part is, I was looking at inventory on Trulia in Woodinville. I was struck by how many new houses showed up in the listings. I had the definite sense something was going on. Then I saw your graph, which confirms sellers are coming to market in droves because prices have peaked and are now on the downslide.

    I remember the last bubble in 2007. Prices started out strong in Spring 2007, then by Fall everything fell apart and there was a HUGE panic as price cuts started permeating the system. Prices dropped a good 20% in a few months.

    We still haven’t seen that panic drop yet, so don’t buy anything until it happens. It will happen, most likely this Fall. People who buy now could see an immediate loss of 20%. We are at the same spot as Spring 2007 in terms of market dynamics.

  24. 774
    Joe says:

    RE: David @ 755

    How can I wait? Prices are dropping while I’m sitting on an empty house with $4000 per month carrying cost. If I don’t sell before Fall that’s another $40,000 out of my pocket as I hold over Fall and Winter, and there’s more than a good change that prices are much much lower next Spring. Buyers can just wait and rent because they have no skin in the game.

  25. 775
    Deerhawke says:

    By Eastsider @ 770:

    By Deerhawke @ 747:

    Closed on a home I built this week.

    Is it a different market from Q1-2018? You bet. Instead of being pre-sold as we normally are, we had to go through that old sales exercise of broker’s open, open house, etc. Dozens and dozens of agents and their buyers came through before three offers materialized. Sold in a week, closed all-cash two weeks later. And the sale price in $/sf was just a tad bit below Q1-2018 levels.

    Just one data point for you.

    I don’t mean to over-generalize from my experience. But I will tell you that the single family market this spring is doing fine.

    It is not the panic buying market that came to a crescendo in Q1-2018. Buyers now feel that they have a bit of time to make an offer. But if they feel that the property is special, they give themselves a few days to think it over, and then don’t hesitate a lot. Their agents make the effort to ask if there is anyone else interested and if there might be other offers to compete against. Then magically all the offers show up on the same day within a few hours of each other.

    Are there some properties sitting that would not have in 2017? Definitely.

    Poor location, poor access, poor light, no views, no charm, confused floor-plan, cheap build, me-too architecture, weird architecture, no creativity, inconsistent design theme, the same old 2015 finishes, the same damned boring modern box, , etc. etc.

    In 2017, it was all selling and selling fast– buyers knew that they didn’t have much choice and looked past the deficiencies.

    2019 is not a desperate market. It is a more balanced, normal single-family market.

    Certainly looks like a soft(er) market to me.

    – Presales are gone.
    All cash buyer! I bet nearly all your previous sales were to buyers with loans.
    – Sold price is below 2018Q1. Your worst margin in 5 years?
    – I see new constructions in Kirkland on crappy lots that are literately under the powerline and some even come with the tower! These builders and their buyers are going to lose money.

    Not saying the market is bad for sellers (yet) but good days are over.

    1) Clearly 2019 is a softer market than Q1-2018. That was a market of pure buyer desperation and could not last.

    On the other hand, 2019 is a much more vibrant market than Q-2, 3 and 4 of 2018 when a lot of people kept looking, but were much more hesitant to commit. A lot of talk then about catching a falling knife. Not so much now.

    2) Pre-sales are rarer, but not gone. I am negotiating one now. It depends on:
    a) the neighborhood and what inventory is in that neighborhood
    b) how special the individual lot and property is, and
    c) the reputation of the builder and his/her connections to agents who know how to do pre-sales

    3) Yes, no question the all cash, no contingencies, close in 2 weeks buyer went to the head of the line and got a discount. All cash was a much more common scenario in 2016, 2017 and Q-1 2018 than now.

    4) For me, around the same margin as 2017 sales and Q-1 2018 sales. There is some gamesmanship about pricing. I marked the house up 2% more than it should have been. The seller came in 3% low. As a result, he got the 1% discount he deserved for an all-cash, non-contingent, quick close offer. If he had waited another 3-4 days in putting in his offer, he would have been beaten out at full price by an offer that required financing.

    5) I am more than glad to let other builders take the powerline lots, the busy street lots, the sunken lots, etc. etc. and then finance them with hard money. They may do OK in a rapidly rising market, but will eventually get a Builder’s Darwin Award.

  26. 776
    David says:

    By Joe @ 773:

    RE: David @ 755

    How can I wait? Prices are dropping while I’m sitting on an empty house with $4000 per month carrying cost. If I don’t sell before Fall that’s another $40,000 out of my pocket as I hold over Fall and Winter, and there’s more than a good change that prices are much much lower next Spring. Buyers can just wait and rent because they have no skin in the game.

    If they can sell $750k houses in White Center in an island of Muslim infested streets of free housing – you are going to lose that bet.

  27. 777
    Blurtman says:

    Cracker box house worth 8.7% per year more since March 2016 because…..?

    Well because.

    Price trolling to see what bites. Besides the house.

    Date Event & Source Price Appreciation
    May 9, 2019
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1433560 $699,900 —
    Apr 29, 2019
    Price Changed
    NWMLS #1433560 $724,900 —
    Apr 4, 2019
    Listed (Active)
    NWMLS #1433560 $739,000 —
    Mar 28, 2016 Delisted
    NWMLS #896609 — —
    Mar 28, 2016 Sold (MLS) (Sold)
    NWMLS #896609 $555,000 —

  28. 778
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 765
    Thank you SWE. Ardell is awesome.

    We need a yard since I’ve acquired a dog and a son now. I do like condos, so I’ll move into one when I older and my situation changes.

  29. 779
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 767
    That’s awesome SWE. Your daughter is lucky to have you as her father.

    I met a guy from Kansas City in grad school at uw. He liked Kansas City more than Seattle, so he moved back to get his PhD in mechanical engineering there. His dad was an engineering professor at university down there, so I’m sure that has something to do with it.

    Anyway, your daughter is coming back to see you and that’s great!

  30. 780
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 769
    Subtract the special assessment and my unit is still the highest priced unit my a good margin. I believe it’s more my remodel, paying the special assessment ahead of time, and having Ardell stage and sell it for me. Ardell is an expert stager, best I’ve ever met.

    I paid a designer for an hour consultation up front, which really helped me choose the right finishes. That helped too.

  31. 781
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 769

    Haters gonna hate lol.

    Erik – Congrats on the sale and making money!

  32. 782
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 769

    The only difference was paying it in advance or at closing. Same net. But a higher price to say amount due zero. Smart move on Erik’s part.

  33. 783
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 780 – That’s one hateful comment…

  34. 784
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 781 – Most assessments transfer to new owners but Erik’s case may be different? If special assessment is included in sales price, he will be paying extra taxes (and commissions lol)… I would credit buyer at closing.

  35. 785
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 782

    You know what I mean. You’re pretty quick to try to discredit him saying he got the best price.

    It’s ok to celebrate another man’s success.

  36. 786
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 780
    Thank you. I work very hard at it.

  37. 787
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 783

    Lol dude you’re so full of yourself. You don’t think all of this was considered before listing it?

    You’re obviously the smartest guy in the room, they should’ve hired you as a consultant.

  38. 788
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 783
    New owner would have owned the unit a few months and had to pay a special assessment. If I sold and stuck the new owner with an assessment, I would totally be within the rules. I wouldn’t want to be treated like that if I was a buyer so I don’t treat others like that. I believe that you make more money if you treat people well in real estate deals vs trying to only get a better deal.

  39. 789
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 787 You aren’t treating him nice. You treated yourself nice. Don’t break your arm adjusting that halo.
    You both came to the table. You both made the decision. You made money. Ardell made money. He got an airbox to store his possessions in that he will regret in a few months.

  40. 790
    Joe says:

    Just got back from another tour of Woodinville open houses. Absolutely dead. Checked out six houses and only saw two other people all day. The residents had moved out of all the houses.

    People holding these high priced empty homes will have to keep dropping prices until they get buyer interest. In order to avoid following the market down for years, some smart sellers will take some pretty sizable price drops and move on. The rest will watch their empty houses sit and suffer the related financial anxiety. Greed is not good. It will add stress to your life and shorten your lifespan.

  41. 791
    sfrz says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 741 – YES, There is something wrong with flippers making fast casino cash. Flipping within 1-2 years should be slapped with a massive capital gains tax. You buy it, you keep it for your H.O.M.E. This is bubble madness talk. It will end very badly.
    This frenzy is all cooked up by the central banks, as are the multitude of bubbles being juggled right now.
    Jesse Colombo’s current bubble list:

    “Here is the list of dangerous economic bubbles that I am warning about:

    The U.S. stock market bubble
    U.S. Housing Bubble 2.0
    The U.S. commercial real estate bubble
    The global property bubble
    The U.S. higher education bubble
    The U.S. auto loan bubble
    The U.S. healthcare bubble
    The U.S. restaurant bubble
    The tech startup bubble
    The global bond bubble
    The derivatives bubble
    The ETF and passive indexing bubble
    China’s housing bubble and debt bubble
    The emerging markets bubble
    The commodities bubble
    Canada’s housing bubble and debt bubble
    Australia’s housing bubble and debt bubble
    New Zealand’s housing bubble
    The art, wine, and spirits bubble”

  42. 792
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 783

    You are a bit confused on the facts here and I can’t give the detail as that is confidential info. Suffice it to say that your negative comment #769 aimed at Erik is just dead wrong in this case. Also your suggestion to credit the buyer is wrong as well. The buyer’s lender would not have allowed that nor would it have worked in any case. Couldn’t possibly be done the way you suggest.

    Erik did a great job. He’s an awesome seller. If I ask him to do 2 things, he does 3. If I ask him to do something, he does it ASAP. He makes a lot of money at doing this, but he works extra hard at it too.

    This type of assessment is never carried forward to the buyer. That’s all I can say. You are talking about a different kind of assessment. Not sure where you are getting the info about it being “uncommon” but no, not correct. I’ll put my 29 years of first hand knowledge on that against wherever you are getting your info.

    Just say “That’s great Erik” and don’t try to read something into it that isn’t based on fact in order to turn it into a negative outcome. It was a great outcome, and a bit unexpected given where everyone here is saying the condo market is at present. Even in this condo market, some great things do happen for sellers like Erik.

    Sorry Erik. I usually wouldn’t speak up on a private matter, but hopefully was able to defend you against the negative comment without giving away any private info. You are awesome!

  43. 793
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 791 – Let me help you with that 4th paragraph, since you are on the SEATTLE BUBBLE BLOG, not THE SEATTLE INVESTORS’ BLOG:
    “It was a great outcome, [for Eric and me] and a bit unexpected given where everyone here is saying [the facts of the US housing bubble]the condo market [is tanking] is at present. Even in this condo market, [which is tanking] some great things do happen for sellers like Erik.[some FB is a bagholder].

  44. 794
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 791
    Thank you Ardell. You are an awesome agent. We did good and brought a great product to the market. The new owner will be very happy. My guess is the value of that condo keeps going up in value because it’s a unique product in a great location. Every condo we sell seems to raise the value of the units in that complex.

  45. 795
    David says:

    Most open houses are usually dead air.

    By Joe @ 789:

    Just got back from another tour of Woodinville open houses. Absolutely dead. Checked out six houses and only saw two other people all day. The residents had moved out of all the houses.

    People holding these high priced empty homes will have to keep dropping prices until they get buyer interest. In order to avoid following the market down for years, some smart sellers will take some pretty sizable price drops and move on. The rest will watch their empty houses sit and suffer the related financial anxiety. Greed is not good. It will add stress to your life and shorten your lifespan.

    1By Joe @ 789:

    Just got back from another tour of Woodinville open houses. Absolutely dead. Checked out six houses and only saw two other people all day. The residents had moved out of all the houses.

    People holding these high priced empty homes will have to keep dropping prices until they get buyer interest. In order to avoid following the market down for years, some smart sellers will take some pretty sizable price drops and move on. The rest will watch their empty houses sit and suffer the related financial anxiety. Greed is not good. It will add stress to your life and shorten your lifespan.

  46. 796
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 789
    Thanks for the tip Joe, I’ll check out Woodinville real estate and maybe get something for cheap. Everywhere else appears to be a hot market this year. Not as hot as the past few years, but still hot. The past few years has been insane.

  47. 797
    S-Crow says:

    Glad that Eric was able to sell at this time. Making a net profit after taxes is the cherry on top. If Eric want’s to share more details about why he’s chosen to sell at this time on a public forum/blog, it’s up to him.

    There’s nothing inherently devious or wrong with flipping property. It carries risk. Flipping also has a finite timeline or ideal window. It serves a purpose and improves homes/condo’s etc. Howevever, people in this industry love to talk “game” about the money and they rarely see what escrow see’s and that is the losses. I’ve got clients that have made $2Mil+ on flips in aggregate and have also dealt with flips in default and foreclosure, in this market, today. So, it’s not all the gravy train as too many in the real estate industry want to peddle.

    Regarding the market:

    People apparently have a very short memory. 7 mos ago the market locally and in some major markets across the county, including the mortgage industry (refi’s specifically) experienced substantial slowing (ie “sales slowing”) due to rates over 5%+. I got into a debate with an agent recently who does not have my experience in working in a few real estate cycles or obiouvsly my escrow perspective in closing transactions so I just stuck to some basics and I eventually centered on one question: Why are rates at sub 4% today and why did rates need to drop? Which lead to a follow up question and that was ” what was the trigger?” How will it impact the housing market? Why did banks like Wells Fargo, Homestreet Bank and some lenders consolidate operations, lay off staff, sell off servicing and close offices?

    Even more recently I was talking to a Broker face to face about people buying at peak or even post peak and the resulting problems if they are levered heavily (which includes a substantial cohort of first time buyers).

    Also, I understand people want to latch onto Pendings as a sign of market momentum. That’s a slippery slope. I’ve had four sale fails in the last two and a half weeks or so and a couple of them were well into the closing period. They were all pending. Solds and sold prices are the ONLY firm data I use including list to sale price ratio’s. Obviously seeing what people are doing in our own closings tells the story of the market in real time.

  48. 798
    steven says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 796

    sorry, i was just wondering about few of the comments you made.
    Making a net profit after taxes is the cherry on top.
    I mean if there is no net profit, doesn’t that mean you lost money overall? it’s not a cherry but bare minimum for a profitable business? is there other benefits that i don’t know about in flipping?

    Even more recently I was talking to a Broker face to face about people buying at peak or even post peak and the resulting problems if they are levered heavily

    do you mean you were discussing about what would happen if they were levered heavily, or what would happen because you see a lot of lenders with high leverage? (i mean are they levered heavily or not based on your experience)

    Why are rates at sub 4% today and why did rates need to drop? what was your answer to this btw? thanks for all your help

  49. 799
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 787:

    RE: Eastsider @ 783
    New owner would have owned the unit a few months and had to pay a special assessment. If I sold and stuck the new owner with an assessment, I would totally be within the rules. I wouldn’t want to be treated like that if I was a buyer so I don’t treat others like that. I believe that you make more money if you treat people well in real estate deals vs trying to only get a better deal.

    Seriously what’s your point. Your are required by law to disclose any assessments to the buyer. Paying prior or after has nothing to do with being ‘nice’. The end result is identical. Except you now pay extra excise tax (and commissions) for being ‘nice’.

  50. 800
    Eastsider says:

    By OA @ 786:

    RE: Eastsider @ 783

    Lol dude you’re so full of yourself. You don’t think all of this was considered before listing it?

    You’re obviously the smartest guy in the room, they should’ve hired you as a consultant.

    You would be surprised most sellers don’t consider potential excised tax saving. There is no reason to be rude and hateful.

  51. 801
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 791 – Of course I don’t have specific info on this sale. I was just pointing out in general special assessments can/do carry forward to buyers. The buyers assuming the assessments will simply pay lower prices for the units. In certain loans, eg. FHA, there may be restrictions that require special assessments to be paid off before closing. But as a cash buyer, there is nothing to prevent you from assuming the assessment and pay a lower excise tax and commissions. I have seen condos with $80k assessments and few sellers could afford to pay off the $80k. For SFHs, sewer cap (another assessment) is also carried forward in majority of sales. In all these cases, you can save a lot in excise tax and commissions by selling at lower prices.

  52. 802

    RE: Erik @ 795
    Our Public Schools Are Way Too Expensive and Subpar

    For 20 times the Property Tax budget of Kansas St K-12 Public Schools, Wash St rates 19 and Kansas St Rates 15 in the country. This Sanctuary State state totally squanders all the money on teaching English free in the classrooms and excluding math/science at the same time. It is what it is. You may want to look at private or home schooling Erik. I went to Kent’s Public School Phoenix Academy Computer Based Training (CBT) to replace Kentlake High. Once they get to a Community College the OVERPOPULATION diversity impact budget stealing stops.

  53. 803
    Armk says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 796

    You mentioned seeing flips going into default and foreclosure in this market. If one wanted to pick up one of these distressed properties, is there a way to target them specifically? Essentially, any way to narrow down the search for these distressed sellers?

  54. 804
  55. 805
    Brianna says:

    RE: Armk @ 802 – If you have an account on Zillow.com, you can see properties that are in default.

  56. 806
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 796 – Yes, this housing market is dependent upon mortgage rates of 5% or less to stay afloat. No bueno.

  57. 807

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 805

    It didn’t stay afloat at 5%. This market thrives at 4% or less…give or take.

    To some extent that depends on future expectation. 5% expected to go to 7% vs 5% expected to come back down to 3.875%. Two very different results.

  58. 808
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 806 – Agreed. I was speaking generally, and probably being a bit generous that the market could even handle an increase to 5% without being negatively affected.

  59. 809

    RE: Eastsider @ 800

    A complex topic for sure. Answering generally.

    Sewer Assessments are usually a 15 year carry from date built. Those tend to be passed through to the buyer in the earlier years, but not when there is only 18 mos or less left on it.

    Condo Assessments for a full renovation such as new siding and windows and roof all at the same time, and some other upgrades added, are really not the normal condo “assessment” for repair and replace. They are a decision by the owners to upgrade the building value and not simply spending Reserves on what they were collected to cover. Usually those are also a 15 year payout and are handled the same as the sewer assessment noted above.

    Normal Condo Assessments are for when the cost to repair replace exceeds the Reserve Study expectation. Those are usually lump sum payments all at once or spread into payments of a much shorter duration. Often the item is repaired or replaced from Reserves and they have sufficient funds on hand to make the repair. The Special Assessment is just to replenish reserves and only for the amount in excess of the expectation when collecting funds from normal dues payments. Those are usually paid in full by the owner at closing, even if they were allowed to make payments.

    You said, “The buyers assuming the assessments will simply pay lower prices for the units”. That is not the best strategy in most cases as the discount will exceed the special assessment amount. Same as a house that needs new carpet. The discount the buyer wants for the mess they are seeing is much more than the cost of new carpet. Passing things through to a buyer follows the same rules as flippers. except in reverse. They want twice as much off the price as the cost to pay/fix. You pay much more in discount than the small percentage of tax and other costs if you pass it through.

    You said “But as a cash buyer, there is nothing to prevent you from assuming the assessment…” By the time a building goes to Cash Buyers Only due to a major issue, the discount is well above the assessment amount. For the most part when we talk about the market and market expectations, we are not talking primarily about all cash buyers.

    Highest Price usually follows fewest negatives. Special Assessment (not necessarily a new sewer assessment on a single family home) is just one of the issues a seller can get in front of to achieve highest price. But that doesn’t work if they are the ONLY unit doing that as the other units selling at lower prices, that are passing the assessment through to the buyers, will drag down the appraised value. So it’s really an issue that you have to give thoughtful consideration on a case by case basis as part of the listing strategy.

    In any case, what you are saying is 90% incorrect for most of the condo market and 100% incorrect in this case.

  60. 810

    RE: steven @ 797
    Why Did Rates Drop?

    My guess is its a new paradigm with no more Obama Quantitative Easing [welfare to banksters]…what was true during a debt driven economy on crutches may ignore interest rate hikes, but eliminate the QE and have a self energizing economy with more tax revenue investing has stirred the old model up.

    Correct me if you have another opinion, its a good question no one can really figure out.

  61. 811
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 795

    Erik, congrats.

    You took a risk, thought it out carefully and then put in a lot of hard work to come out ahead. Good for you.

    There are those who want something for nothing and are bitter and angry when they get nothing rather than something. Those folks are currently over-represented on this site. I would not be so blunt in my criticism, but they are twisting information about this market in a way that will lead others into poor choices like they did.

    What would you consider your business model here? Buy a condo that has basically good bones and good location but is run down and in need of a lot of TLC, new appliances, etc.?

  62. 812
    uwp says:

    By my count on the sidebar, inventory grew this past week (Monday 5/13 9:00am – Monday 5/20 9:00am) by 239 SFH, or ~6%. Last year over the same week (5/14 – 5/21) inventory grew by 387 SFH or almost 17%!

    I was promised a “BLOCKBUSTER, but it seems like a pretty tame week compared to 2018.

  63. 813
    Realistic says:

    RE: uwp @ 811

    I have a similar impression and I mentioned this earlier. I noticed 3 things in Justme’s charts that counter the buyer strike theory. To recap:

    1) Recently the deltas between weekly highs and lows have been much larger than in the previous 2 years, indicating that more houses are going pending than in 2017-2018 during the same weekly periods.

    2) The spike last weekend was indeed very high but only if we consider the delta between the recent lowest point and the highest. Looking at the delta between the last two peaks, the relative spike is a lot smaller than in 2018 and on par with 2017.

    3) Since April 1 the condo inventory line has been going almost sideways. If condos are supposed to be the equivalent of canaries in coal mines (as previously mentioned on this forum) they don’t seem to forecast well for buyers.

  64. 814

    RE: uwp @ 811
    Assuming Your Data Read is Correct

    The general picture may be foggier than some think. Even cheap areas like Kansas City are price stalled, its a national trend. Part of the problem, IMO, is lack of comparison “bang for the buck” and assuming the Seattle price increases are the “fun goes on and on”….you know the definition of assume….LOL

    Sometimes status quo is the lazy man’s method of doing an analysis all wrong….be careful of assuming the past history differences don’t make any difference….they do. Financial Advisors not recommending American Stocks as 100% of investments the last decade is another gross error. Hades, long-term equity investing doesn’t depend on a business MBA to be correct, raw data trends is much better, especially YOY. Do it yourself IOWS and do it right.

  65. 815
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 811

    Dear buyers and strikers, don’t fall for uwp’s numerical sophistry. The intraweek inventory count runup from bottom to peak for last week was about 20% higher in 2019 than in 2018. Uwp likes to play propaganda games, so instead he picked Monday the week before and straddled two weeks with his measurements, getting a number more to his liking.

    But ask yourself, why would Mon-Mon be a good period to check? Inventory tends to bottom out on Wed (or Tue) and peak on Fri night. If you want to get an indication of how many sellers are joining the market, the runup from Tue/Wed to Fri night is the most interesting number.

    Caveat: I have not checked uwp’s numbers. I’m just going by what he is saying.

    For visuals, please refer to https://imgur.com/a/DJwONfZ . Ascii data is available on the blog front page sidebar.

  66. 816

    RE: Realistic @ 812
    I Imagine You Currently Own a Seattle Area Condo?

    Many buyers [especially families] don’t want a condo. The HOAs at condos muck it up too, they don’t fix ’em up right IMO, because they don’t know how….this causes structural degradation in a decade or two. My HOA thinks a 50% violation rate is cute, but is risking a major law suit, especially if the HOA Board isn’t on the violation list. My HOA wasted $20K trying to get liens [illegal BTW] on the all 140 units for their fraud water line replacement…it wasn’t needed, its been 5-10 years and we still have water…LOL…the realtors have taken over my HOA’s violations rate and they never write up important ones [just front yard listing pictures], like an illegal furnace [water heater, water valve, sump pump and dishwasher water source to code etc, too] installed without a state inspection sticker, making any RE contract null and void…Hades I bought my “listed” house with an uninspected Rich’s Stove [no metal placard state inspection sticker] and the shyster Realtor reported me to the State, after I grabbed the listing from him….they don’t care about illegal contracts? What good are HOAs anyway?

  67. 817
    uwp says:

    RE: Justme @ 814
    I checked Monday to Monday because listings have a typical flow to them through the week. Comparing Monday to Wednesday wouldn’t make much sense (unless you wanted to scare-monger about listing growth).

    If you would like, we could look at the last month (4/22-5/20) compared to 2018 (4/23-5/21):

    2018: SFH +772, +40%
    2019: SFH +550, +15%

  68. 818
    Justme says:

    Here is a table of KC inventory and pending numbers from last Wed. Wed typically has the highest number of pendings and the lowest number of inventory. A 45% SFH absorption-to-pending rate within 4 rolling weeks is nothing strong. Likewise, the condo absorption rate is a measly 37%, even while condo inventory, as some have noted, has not been rising as steeply as SFH inventory lately. Not sure why — maybe underwater condo owners that are less likely to try and list?

    # -D 2019-05-15@08:

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk new inventory: 1229  = 0934 + 0122 + 0173 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=2wk new inventory: 2460  = 1855 + 0254 + 0351 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=3wk new inventory: 3530  = 2616 + 0384 + 0530 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=4wk new inventory: 4583  = 3382 + 0505 + 0696 (SFH + townh + condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk DOM _pendings: 0239  = 0193 + 0023 + 0023 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=2wk DOM _pendings: 0791  = 0628 + 0066 + 0097 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=3wk DOM _pendings: 1369  = 1073 + 0112 + 0184 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=4wk DOM _pendings: 1942  = 1527 + 0156 + 0259 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=1mo DOM _pendings: 2056  = 1602 + 0172 + 0282 (SFH + townh + condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk pending absor: 0.19  , 0.21 , 0.19 , 0.13 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=2wk pending absor: 0.32  , 0.34 , 0.26 , 0.28 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=3wk pending absor: 0.39  , 0.41 , 0.29 , 0.35 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=4wk pending absor: 0.42  , 0.45 , 0.31 , 0.37 (SFH , townh , condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

  69. 819
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 816

    More shenanigans from Uwp. I explained comparing inventory bottom (Wed) to peak (Fri night), pointed out the illogic of using Mon-Mon, and he then tries to imply that I asked to compare Mon to Wed. And then he trots out more Mon-Mon numbers, or what is he doing now?

    Buyers and strikers: Is uwp dishonest, incompetent, or some combination of both? You be the judge.

    Bubble-mongers: No point in asking you, is there?

  70. 820
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Realistic @ 812

    I am glad you are thinking for yourself and doing your own analysis. Don’t take anybody’s word for anything. Don’t buy it if people seem to have an ideological or financial angle that they are selling and are intent on shouting down others.

    If you have the time, really track the numbers and share your conclusions with us.

  71. 821
    Justme says:

    You must think for yourself!
    Then you must Buy! Now!
    Did I mention to think for yourself?
    As long as you are buying, that is.
    Don’t forget to buy. Important!

    -a bubble poem

  72. 822
    Notme says:

    You must think for yourself!
    Then you must Buy! Now!
    Did I mention to think for yourself?
    As long as you are buying, that is.
    Don’t forget to buy. Important!

    -a bubble poem

  73. 823
    David says:

    By Justme @ 817:

    Here is a table of KC inventory and pending numbers from last Wed. Wed typically has the highest number of pendings and the lowest number of inventory. A 45% SFH absorption-to-pending rate within 4 rolling weeks is nothing strong. Likewise, the condo absorption rate is a measly 37%, even while condo inventory, as some have noted, has not been rising as steeply as SFH inventory lately. Not sure why — maybe underwater condo owners that are less likely to try and list?

    # -D 2019-05-15@08:

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk new inventory: 1229  = 0934 + 0122 + 0173 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=2wk new inventory: 2460  = 1855 + 0254 + 0351 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=3wk new inventory: 3530  = 2616 + 0384 + 0530 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=4wk new inventory: 4583  = 3382 + 0505 + 0696 (SFH + townh + condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk DOM _pendings: 0239  = 0193 + 0023 + 0023 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=2wk DOM _pendings: 0791  = 0628 + 0066 + 0097 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=3wk DOM _pendings: 1369  = 1073 + 0112 + 0184 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=4wk DOM _pendings: 1942  = 1527 + 0156 + 0259 (SFH + townh + condo)
    <=1mo DOM _pendings: 2056  = 1602 + 0172 + 0282 (SFH + townh + condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    <=1wk pending absor: 0.19  , 0.21 , 0.19 , 0.13 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=2wk pending absor: 0.32  , 0.34 , 0.26 , 0.28 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=3wk pending absor: 0.39  , 0.41 , 0.29 , 0.35 (SFH , townh , condo)
    <=4wk pending absor: 0.42  , 0.45 , 0.31 , 0.37 (SFH , townh , condo)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Unless you can buy a condo at a ridiculously low multiple to SFH, it is crazy to buy, essentially, a timeshare that has you on the hook for all repairs where other people are making the maintenance purchase decisions. People who may be popular and suck at financial decisions.

    Imagine turning over your finances to Alexandria O-‘scare’-io Cortez because she gets ‘elected’ to the board and develops some following. Now imagine handing over your $550k – $1M to a board that may not like your more frugal perspectives. No thanks.

    This is why, when markets tank, condos can be a years long albatross that makes the first move down and the last move up.

    I will say WA does have good disclosure laws for condos.

  74. 824
    first time poster says:

    RE: David @ 763 – I have Never commented on this blog during the Years I have been reading. I usually skim the bickering back and forth between regulars…but please…don’t be a racist, not necessary for your dramatic effect.

  75. 825
    Realistic says:

    RE: David @ 821

    I couldn’t say this better! Random folks making critical decisions affecting your most important asset, guided by a management company that juggles 10 other HOAs and gets incentives from their preferred contractors. Lol, what could go wrong? Moreover, when nobody wants to be on the board you end up with inexperienced and often incompetent people elected without contest. And when there is a competition usually the people elected are the loudest and most disruptive but not necessarily right for the job. Then as a bonus you also get the politics, drama, gossips, arguments, proxy wars, wasted time on homeowner meetings, and that pile of cash in reserves that you saved over the years and have to leave behind when you sell the property.

    I don’t have experience with non-condo HOAs, so I’m curious if those are equally bad. It boggles my mind why pretty much every new housing development is an HOA nowadays.

  76. 826
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 810 – Nobody is bitter.

    The fundamental difference is that the bubble mongers have skin in the game. Their(your) paychecks depend on you signing for their product.

    The people on this site yelling slow down, slow down have no financial interest or gain. So, as this is Seattle BUBBLE, and The Tim’s vision for the site as it was created while house hunting, it appears that the people with a VESTED interest in other’s signing away their lives are the one’s that are over represented on this site.

    As I stated before, come to the table, take what you need. Leave the rest.

  77. 827
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 796
    Thank you Mr. Crow. I’d love to share why I made this decision.

    The biggest reason I made the decision to sell is risk management. The condo I sold had the most equity and is prone to special assessments because it sits on top of the water. The renters were great and wanted to stay, but unfortunately I needed the cash to reduce my risk. I was breaking even or losing money on my portfolio every month, so I needed the cash.

    In addition, last year was the first time we’d seen inventory rise in a longtime. I don’t think a crash is coming in the near term, but it’s still a negative and I just can’t afford to take a risk right now as I don’t have the financial footing yet. I planned to sell at the end of expansion and buy during recession. I think we are well into expansion. I’m too conservative to play around during hypersupply, which could be coming shortly.

    There is a lot of talk about a whole lot of condo inventory coming to Seattle soon, which scares me too. Some investors I respect are sitting on cash. Deerhawk said he wants to be in a cash position this year and he seems to be in the know. I text Ray Pepper and he said a lot of investors are sitting on cash right now. The head guy at the group that helps me buy auction property says he thinks Seattle condos are at a top.

    If I had more money, I would have kept the condo a few more years. With the profits I feel like I’m on much more stable ground. I could have a 5 year vacancy and he just fine.

  78. 828
    Notme says:

    A lot of bubble mongers,
    want to be in cash now
    YOUR cash
    So Buy! Now! Pow!

    -a bubble poem

  79. 829
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: sfrz @ 823

    You are missing the point in fundamental ways.

    People with skin in the game need the best data and analysis when the market is going up. But they need the best data and analysis a whole lot more when the market is getting ready to take a big ugly dump.

    Somebody who makes any argument, bullish or bearish, should be taken seriously directly in proportion to the quality of their data and argument– and inversely proportional to the level of their vehemence and vituperation.

    In my view, people who say the say the same tired thing all the time are the ones to watch out for.

    I am talking about those who were warning about the dead cat bounce in 2012, the hidden inventory in 2013 and 2014, potential catastrophe for every kind of reason in 2015, 2016, 2017 and early 2018 then proclaimed 2018 the ten year cyclical return of 2008 etc. etc. They are now trying to convince people that they should ignore all data but the stuff they gin up. To quote Richard Pryor (or Groucho Marx) they are saying, “Who you gonna believe? Me or your own lying eyes?”

    The thing that convinces me that some of these pessimists are about to be right is that they have been so consistently wrong for so long. At some point, like a broken watch that is right twice a day, they are bound to be right.

  80. 830
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Erik @ 824 – Thanks for the additional commentary on the reasoning and thought processes behind the decision to sell.

    The thing is that if you do a couple of these or more you may end up having enough cash on hand that you can finance your own purchases and don’t have to rely upon other sources. That’s where people really start to make headway and fall into the realm of a true investor >>> Reduce or eliminate the need to borrow.

    In escrow I happen to see cases where “investors” own multiple homes or quite a few properties but their loan to values are leveraged to the hilt. These are the folks that have a higher probablilty of problems if tenants cannot pay for one reason or another or rents get soft, repairs catch up to them and they cannot service the debt loads. ie, you’ll see their properties at auction.

  81. 831
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 810
    The condo that I just sold was purchased in 2014. I lived in it and gave a friend from high school free rent to help me remodel. I wasn’t used to having money to pay someone yet, so my friend and I did most the work. Along the way I met a remodel guy from Craigslist who does all my remodels now.

    I bought all my condos at the King County auction and got pretty good deals. I remodeled them all and rented them out using a leasing agent.

    I wish I could say I have a strong business plan, but I still do not yet. I just look for good deals on condos I can fix up and rent out. I know how to buy at the auction, I have a great leasing agent, a great remodel guy, and a cpa. Now that I have the framework, I just need to find some good deals.

  82. 832
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 814:

    RE: uwp @ 811

    Dear buyers and strikers, don’t fall for uwp’s numerical sophistry. The intraweek inventory count runup from bottom to peak for last week was about 20% higher in 2019 than in 2018. Uwp likes to play propaganda games, so instead he picked Monday the week before and straddled two weeks with his measurements, getting a number more to his liking.

    Indeed; why would anyone want to look at a like on like comparison? That’s like that crazy year over year sophistry used to nullify the seasonal effect, except more current – “straddling” the weeks the way that YOY “straddles the years. Rather, let’s take the part of the week that we know shows a pattern we like, and then ignore the part where things go the other way. That info should just disappear.

    Inventory tends to bottom out on Wed (or Tue) and peak on Fri night. If you want to get an indication of how many sellers are joining the market, the runup from Tue/Wed to Fri night is the most interesting number.

    By the same magic; if we go peak to bottom, (Friday night to Tuesday night), we can get an indication of how many buyers are rushing to pull out new inventory. That is the more relevant number for a buyer’s strike anyway.

    Brazen, cherry picking, misdirection? Exactly.

  83. 833
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 826
    Right, if you can avoid paying the banks, then you are way better off. Next buying opportunity, I want to buy a lot of condos in Seattle with traditional loans, let them double in value over 5 years, then sell them and pay off the others. Ride the passive income train for the rest of my days sipping mai tais on the shores of Tahiti and eating high end pork and beef whenever I wanted. Lobster and sushimi would be available every meal.

  84. 834
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 799

    My last comment/reply to you on this – I called you out because you came across bitter about Erik’s successful sale by right off the bat trying to poke holes at a transaction that you knew completely nothing about.

    Erik was obviously super excited for getting rewarded for all of the hard work he put in on that condo, and it’s totally fine to celebrate that, no matter whether you’re a bull or bear here. If someone here sells and makes great money because of the hard work that was put in, that’s awesome! If someone here buys and gets a great deal, that’s awesome too!

    I’m a homeowner in King County so obviously I wouldn’t mind prices continuing to grow. But I’m also sitting on cash right now waiting on the next opportunity in case prices fall further. The market is the market, do your homework to increase your odds of coming out on top.

  85. 835
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Business plan – Pick Up Nickels And Dimes In Front Of A Steamroller. Saving up for a mcdonalds lobster roll.

  86. 836
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 830
    Thank you OA. I too prefer this group on Seattle Bubble is supportive of one another. We can all win together if we all help each other. I share my story because Tim’s data and the comments of people on this site gave me these ideas and it’s their win too.

  87. 837
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 830 – Nope. I was not bitter about his sale. I was merely pointing out one explanation for the ‘highest’ sold price.

    Now this ridiculous get rich quick scheme –

    By Erik @ 829:

    Right, if you can avoid paying the banks, then you are way better off. Next buying opportunity, I want to buy a lot of condos in Seattle with traditional loans, let them double in value over 5 years, then sell them and pay off the others. Ride the passive income train for the rest of my days sipping mai tais on the shores of Tahiti and eating high end pork and beef whenever I wanted. Lobster and sushimi would be available every meal.

  88. 838

    Why Are Washington State Schools Costing So Dam_ Much in Property Taxes Bubbleheads??

    I’ll name a couple key reasons:

    1. I.E., Kansas is cutting college costs by $15M, etc…Capitalism.

    https://1350kman.com/k-state-15m-in-budget-cuts-still-expected-for-fy2019/

    2. Inslee Supports FREE COLLEGE. No, if you paid for your college in Wash St recently you were a stupid idiot then? Refunds to those that paid? Hades no… Inslee tagging on $100M more in free Socialism college with another quarter of billion waiting to burn:

    https://mynorthwest.com/1242565/jay-inslee-washington-free-college/

    This is a BIG reason why our schools are going down the toilet and real estate property taxes going through the roof simultaneously? They mask this state property tax increase budget anomaly BTW….I had to hunt to find it…

  89. 839
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 808 – What a long-winded post without pointing out any factual error in my statements except perhaps the specifics of this particular sale since they were private and still are. I can’t respond to something that is undisclosed. In any case, I don’t see a reason to pay additional excise tax and commissions on the special assessment. A $10k assessment included in the sale price is an extra (up to) $800 cost.

  90. 840

    We Need the Other “The Tim” Fighting Against High Property Taxes and $300 Car Tabs, etc, etc…

    https://mynorthwest.com/1387087/dori-eyman-initiative-1648/

    I want Eyeman’s tee shirt…I’d wear it proudly…

  91. 841

    RE: Erik @ 778
    I’m Having a Big Party July 3rd

    For my daughter, and ya know….lots of the Glenbrook HOA folks know her well and many went to school with her. They all want to come too. Yes….its time for the $300 lunches and champagne!!!

    I’m putting them up at the Kent Ramada, I can party too, but I like to get to bed before 3AM….LOL

    I may be taking a blogger’s vacation near 4th of July….but will be having fun! Looks like college enrollment is down and so are KSU’s tuition revenue….U of W is sucking this state dry, anyway. They assume good jobs for everyone….LOL…like burger flipper wages with no health care? Good money after bad in my book.

  92. 842

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 808
    Speaking of More Sewage Draining Into Puget Sound With More OVERPOPULATION GROWTH

    I sure hope the assessment tax increases to build more treatment plants [many land in Covington BTW] isn’t using all the Cascade runoff now with an alleged water shortages. Inslee alleges the water shortage is real, I don’t BTW, I call it Fake News.

    But I’m the raving idiot for a real budget based on voter desires, not another New Greed Deal…

  93. 843

    50% Violation Rate at Glenbrook HOA is Putting This HOA in Lawsuit Risk

    Ask any real estate attorney. The problem is the other 50% are about split on the excessive need for like flower bed weeds violations that board members don’t simultaneously receive too. Meaning, about 75% of the HOA voters are against this HOA’s Association violations count this month. The realtors took over the HOA and want perfect listing pictures….LOL

    The realtors don’t pay the $185/mo dues like the HOA home owners’ voters do too….they shouldn’t be allowed in the HOA meetings. Period. They need to check Glenbrook’s furnaces for state inspection stickers, many could be installed illegally before sale. This makes the real estate contracts illegal. Ask any real estate attorney.

    We had a legal scandal on the water supply and I screamed “foul” on HOA’s putting liens on our homes to pay for fraudulent water main fixes that were NOT NEEDED 5-10 years ago….LOL…I was right then and I’m right now. Would I attend a Glenbrook HOA meeting? Hades no, not without an attorney with me….they treat me like a dog BTW.

  94. 844

    RE: Erik @ 829
    So True Erik

    “If you can avoid paying the banks”

    I paid off my $80K principle in 2009 [I bought in 1999] and many on the Seattle Bubble thought I was a nut back then….go into debt and add to it they all alleged, I’ll make money.

    Well guess what…I made $600/mo x 12 mo x 10 years early retirement already….about $72K and that excludes the $4-8K I made in Money Markets at 1-2% interest off the $72K. Got my $80K back already instead of owing another $60-65K for the next decade [I was on a 10/20 loan with 20 years left]…in debt. My matching 401K was all in QE driven stocks at that time [100% BTW]….I may hate Obama’s QEs but I’m not gonna fight city hall and lose. That’s how ya become a millionaire in $CASH folks, stay out of debt.

    Do your own numbers, trust no one. Time to party hearty with my daughter ;-)

  95. 845

    RE: softwarengineer @ 839

    Hey Realtors and Buyers

    Pass this blog on, its truth and buying at any HOA is a nightmare [not just Glenbrook]….I’m too rich to be scared of these criminals anymore. They know I’m the last one they want to see in court….LOL…keep praying and fight for the little guy not organized crime. Attorneys on contingency for slam dunk law suits against your HOA are free BTW…..hey did SWE say he supports attorneys sometimes? Yes, they’re useful when ya need ’em…

    Do I really care if my retirement home goes down in price if my school property tax goes down again? LOL

    Go into deals with your eyes wide open for “personal” bear traps folks…they’re everywhere.

  96. 846
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 762
    RE: Erik @ 824

    Erik sold his condo in May 2019? How come Erik? The bubble peak is not until 2024, you have been saying, but it is only 2019 now. What is this talk of reducing risk and some respectable investors sitting on cash? Were you WRONG about the bubble? Sure looks like it, does it not.

    Any other bubble-mongers that want to confess to selling in the last 12-24 months, or having or planning something for sale on the market right now? Or will you do like Deerhawke and Erik, and tell us after the sale, meanwhile saying there is no bubble?

    There is another blog that is famous for the catchphrase “Realtors are liars(TM)”. Perhaps time for “Mongers are liars(TM)” as well?

  97. 847
    Rentin’ says:

    RE: Erik @ 824 – Thank you for your honesty and willingness to share Erik. It’s hard to know where the market will go from here, but with inventory continuing to rise I can see why you made the decision you did to mitigate your risk. I’m very curious to see what will happen over the next year, but I think it’s still a very smart time to sell and buying opportunities may be at least a couple of years away.

  98. 848
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 842 – what was that book that Eric promoted with his 2024 predictions? Can we find that on the 50% off table?

  99. 849
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 842
    I sold one condo for cash flow purposes to prop up the rest of my portfolio. Erik is also buying a house in June. I am fairly confident that houses will continue to increase in price for the next 4 years in Seattle because there is no new construction for sfr.

    I sold that condo as a sacrificial lamb. It was my favorite one, but unfortunately I can’t keep them all. It is a glam condo and I want simple income producing assets.

  100. 850
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 833
    Yeah, it’s a pipe dream of mine. If I had the means to do this in 2012, I’d be retired today. I did the best I could as a struggling engineer to make it happen, I just didn’t have enough capital at the time. I want a do over!

  101. 851
    Erik says:

    RE: Rentin’ @ 843
    No problem. I want everyone on here to be successful, even angry eastsider.

    If I had more money, I would have let it roll. I’ve been over leveraged since 2017 and needed to lock in some gains. Now if we have another meltdown, I should be able to survive and maybe even prosper.

  102. 852
    Erik says:

    RE: Sfrz @ 844
    2024 is still good. Read my comments. I didn’t sell because I determined that the market is gonna tank. I sold to prop up my portfolio and buy a house for my family. I also want to provide my wife the opportunity to stay home with our baby a while. In addition, inventory isn’t at an all time low anymore, so there is some risk where before there was extremely low risk.

    The 18 year theory is an article I found online published by Harvard that clicked with me. The cycle is based on the 4 phases of a bubble. I believe we are near the end of expansion. Prices still go up in hyper supply and we aren’t even there yet.

    The book was “the housing boom and bust” by Thomas Sowell.

  103. 853
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 847 – Nothing personal. I’m not angry at you.

    Now if we have another meltdown, I should be able to survive and maybe even prosper.

    I challenge you to run regression analysis to prove that you will indeed survive another meltdown. Assume that your current condo holding, including rent, sink at the same rate as the previous bubble. (E.g. Some condo depreciated in half and rent dropped 30% in last crash.) You could be bleeding cash every month to keep your condos afloat (and for how long?). Leverage is a two edged sword…

  104. 854
    BigBadBanks says:

    Erik I just purchased a duplex in Seattle and am going to rehab soon. This will be my second project and would love to get your thoughts on a few things.

    How do we share contact info on this comment section?

  105. 855
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 849 – Regression analysis? If you buy low enough you can hump regression analysis.

  106. 856
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 849
    I have enough from that sale to keep me afloat if rents drop 30%. I’m not a big time landlord, so I don’t own hundreds of units or anything. I’m just a working stiff with a few condos trying to get enough to retire.

  107. 857
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 845

    Eric just ignore the ankle-biters. If you are selling to buy a house for your family and to free up more cash to invest in quality family time, you are making the right choice, regardless of the time in the economic cycle.

  108. 858
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 849

    If you spend all your time running regression analyses based on a once in a century event like 2008, you will never do a damned thing other than put your money in your mattress.

    By the same token, we all know that the Northwest will get hit by a force 8.5+ earthquake in the next few hundred years. If you spend all your time thinking about that, you will never enjoy living in the beautiful Northwest.

    This kind of analysis really does lead to paralysis.

  109. 859
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 851
    Yah know, you are totally right. Family time is what it’s all about.

  110. 860
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 849
    Like David said, buy low and hump analysis.

    Like Deerhawk said, the last financial meltdown was probably a once in a lifetime ordeal.

  111. 861
    David says:

    By Erik @ 854:

    RE: Eastsider @ 849
    Like David said, buy low and hump analysis.

    Like Deerhawk said, the last financial meltdown was probably a once in a lifetime ordeal.

    All the Chicken Littles remind me of my family members who had it rough during the Great Depression – they always thought it was around the corner again and were mortally scared of it happening again.

    Which just goes to show that it was the Obama Depression. Only Bernanke flooding the market with massive quantitative easing kept it from topping the 30s. Trump’s election brought an end to it. Hence the Fed quit QE at his election.

    Warren Buffett says he never looks at the economy – he looks at the deal.

  112. 862
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 835

    Asking a buyer to pay the Special Assessment costs you much more than the $800 you think you are saving. It’s “Penny wise and pound foolish”.

  113. 863
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 856 – Nope. Seller pays SA at closing. It saves $800. There is no reason to add SA to the sales price, which enriches agents.

  114. 864
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 852 – Erik believes “if we have another meltdown, I should be able to survive and maybe even prosper.” I suggest he would be badly hurt. But you suggest he should believe in the fairy tale? Btw, many Eriks lost their homes/condos in the last crash.

  115. 865
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 857

    You are missing the point. Suffice it to say Erik did it the correct way. Stop raining on Erik’s parade and be done with this nonsense.

  116. 866
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Erik @ 848

    Erik, I’ve grown to like you (it took a little while, lol) Some people here don’t/won’t get you, and that’s ok.
    Will Erik end up wealthy, sipping fancy cocktails? Who knows. But I’m rooting for him and everyone else.

  117. 867
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 840
    You and your daughter will be partying because you are debt free. The first thing i’m doing with my profit is paying off all debt other than mortgages. The wife brought some debt with her grumble grumble.

  118. 868
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 837
    When you go MIA a few days, we will know SWE is partying debt free.

    Hey, I bet you could rent out your house and it would pay for your life in Kansas if you ever want to be closer to your family. It sounds like you and your daughter have a great relationship. Just an idea… all you’d have to do is get a good leasing agent.

  119. 869
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 855
    An event like that leaves fear in some people and they don’t forget easily. I think a smart investor should look at the facts like deerhawk said and realize something like that will probably not happen again in our lifetime, but it could. Plan for the most probable event, which is not another meltdown.

    I am not an Obama fan, but as George w. Bush was leaving office, the economy was already imploding. Obama could have done more, but he wasn’t the root cause. Once Obama got in he cried about guns and fought for transgender bathrooms while the economy was collapsing. I’m more concerned about benefiting the majority and fixing the economy.

  120. 870
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 856
    Well said Ardell. Penny wise and pound foolish to not pay an assessment ahead of time,

  121. 871
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 859 – Erik may or may not have a choice. But in general, it is possible to pay off SA at closing to save $$$ on taxes/commissions. Many have done it before, especially when SA is in tens of thousands. There is nothing wrong about saving taxes and agent commissions.

  122. 872
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 864 – If someone has a condo with $60k SA, it would be stupid to pay an additional $5k or so to agents and KC. I have closed sales limiting agent commissions to not include additional ‘costs’. But hey it’s none of my business if you don’t care.

  123. 873

    RE: Eastsider @ 866

    1) IF, and that’s a big if, the price would be the same if you pay it beforehand or pay it at closing, paying it at closing does not take it out of the price. Escrow pays it out of net proceeds. Costs are not based on price net of bills paid at closing. Escrow pays several bills at closing. The seller’s mortgage, the seller’s final utility bills, Excise Tax, Commissions, Assessments (if any due), Prorated Taxes and Prorated HOA dues. Commissions and Excise Tax are not based on Price Less Bills to be paid at closing. So paying it at closing does not give the result you are suggesting.

    2) If you have no assessment to pay at closing, you will normally get a higher price and a price higher than the amount of the assessment. Every negative in your “ad” costs you a discount for negative. Some buyers will see the Special Assessment amount and not stick around to continue reading to see who is paying it, them or the seller. Some will do searches and filter out all of the ones with Special Assessments due. So at minimum, you diminish your buyer pool which leads to lower price.

    3) Don’t forget to factor current market conditions into the equation when you put your pencil on that paper trying to save less than 1/10th of 1% of the price…as you lose 5% of the price trying to save that one tenth of one percent. You may feel smarter and like you “stuck it to the man”…but in reality the only person you short changed was yourself.

    No one is disputing that the market is a bit weaker these days than it was prior to June of 2018. you have to be smarter in this market to achieve the best result. That is true of both buyers and sellers. Seller errors cost more money today than they did back in 2017 and early 2018. It’s not “business as usual” when it comes to sale strategy. Changing markets call for bigger thinking caps. The market doesn’t cover seller mistakes as easily as the early 2018 and before market of the previous three years or so.

    Many are making the mistake of being too arrogant, not preparing their property well enough, not diminishing negatives to the best of their ability. A seller who is not recognizing a changing market will get less than one who is being extremely mindful that negatives cost more money in this market than when the market was much stronger. It’s Spring Bump…but from a seller strategy standpoint, not strong enough to cover mistakes. That’s where “Penny Wise and Pound Foolish” backfires more so today than this time last year or the year before.

    If you think the shell game of bringing the assessment amount to closing vs paying it out of net proceeds is going to save money, you are incorrect. I might be about to come up with another few reasons why you are not correct, but it would be better if you would just drop it. :) Paying it at closing out of net proceeds does not reduce costs…it reduces the price the buyer will pay for the property. Either due to diminished buyer pool or just reduced offer price.

    If you are simply doing math and ignoring the real world, it seems to make sense in a penny wise kind of sharpened pencil way. But it just doesn’t work the way you are thinking it will work. If the market weakens again when we get past Spring Bump, your advice that sellers should put a spotlight on their weaknesses will cost them dearly.

  124. 874
    N says:

    @Erik 648 – How is hyper supply defined? And why do prices keep going up during hyper supply? Do you have a similar take on the demand side or do you only consider the supply side?

    Based on your comments I assume you believe the last 12 months is a temp lull?

  125. 875

    RE: Erik @ 861
    No Rentals Allowed at My Glenbrook HOA

    Yeah Debt Free is Wonderful Erik, But I Have My Volunteer Responsibilities at the Special Needs Centers for Autism Every weekend. My son is severely disabled and let’s put it this way, Kansas has no replacement home I can find and without me watching his condition at his home the disabled are vulnerable….we all need a SWE guardian angel if we ever go to a disabled life under DSHS. Another reason to save like Mad Erik ASAP….$8000/mo decent care living centers.

    That’s life Erik…I hope I’m lucky like Willy Nelson and live to be 90, healthy, intelligent and with a black belt in karate too…LOL

    You’ll also find out that after your son is older and moves away, they have their own life too and I’m having a great retirement alone, yes alone…..no distractions except my own….I miss my daughter but know, when she doesn’t call she’s happy as a lark and that means I’m happy too. We may have ESP, we think alike on many things.

    They don’t allow rentals in the Seattle area Glenbrook HOA anymore, recent HOA change.

    I just got my pre-order Dean Koontz “The Night Window (just released 2019 Hardback)”…Koontz describes major parts of LA as a tore down “3rd world” city now with rampant drug needles, filth and homelessness….even the book’s lady hero, Jane Hawke, watches the poor squatting/defecating in public from a restaurant window…a great read. Get it, it reminds me of parts of Seattle now. The Jane Hawke series is 5 novels long, and this the finale. Koontz is like SWE, he tells it like it really is…

  126. 876
    IssaquahResident says:

    LOL, regarding the once in a lifetime price crash of 2008, here is a chart of median sales price of new homes in US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

    March 2007: 262,600
    June 2018: 234,300
    11% drop in 15 months

    Dec 2017: 343,300
    March 2019: 302,700
    12% drop in 15 months

    Morale of the story: we are in the middle of possibly a worse crash!

  127. 877
    Realistic says:

    By IssaquahResident @ 870:

    LOL, regarding the once in a lifetime price crash of 2008, here is a chart of median sales price of new homes in US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

    March 2007: 262,600
    June 2018: 234,300
    11% drop in 15 months

    Dec 2017: 343,300
    March 2019: 302,700
    12% drop in 15 months

    Morale of the story: we are in the middle of possibly a worse crash!

    That’s an interesting observation. I’d be curious to see how Seattle or WA compares to that in the same time periods. I tried to search for such charts but I couldn’t find any.

    I only found Zillow median sale price chart that shows the prices dropped 6.1% from the peak in May 2018 ($717k) to the bottom in Mar 2019 ($673k) but that’s for all homes, not just for new construction. https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

  128. 878
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 867 – If seller credits buyer the amount of SA at closing, the seller does not pay taxes and commissions on the credit/SA. Net proceeds from the sale would be higher for seller. This certainly is possible in cash sales. (FHA/VA loans may have different rules/regulations/requirements.) Escrow can correct me if I am wrong.

  129. 879
    uwp says:

    By Realistic @ 871:

    By IssaquahResident @ 870:

    LOL, regarding the once in a lifetime price crash of 2008, here is a chart of median sales price of new homes in US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

    March 2007: 262,600
    June 2018: 234,300
    11% drop in 15 months

    Dec 2017: 343,300
    March 2019: 302,700
    12% drop in 15 months

    Morale of the story: we are in the middle of possibly a worse crash!

    That’s an interesting observation. I’d be curious to see how Seattle or WA compares to that in the same time periods. I tried to search for such charts but I couldn’t find any.

    You can check Case Shiller HPI.
    It has Seattle +5% from Dec 2017 through Feb 2019 (latest # available).
    And -4% from March 2007 through June 2008.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=nZnQ

  130. 880
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 852 – Without analysis, how do you know it is “low”?

  131. 881
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Realistic @ 871 – Here is one way to look at it. Inflation adjusted Seattle Case-Shiller – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nZt2

    Not yet negative year over year but the trend is similar to the last crash in terms of rapidity of drop from the peak. Whether we actually replicate the crash is open for debate (on both sides). Trends don’t necessarily continue. My guess is no huge crash unless we have a sharp recession, with sideways chopping for several years. More like the early 90s. If we get a sharp recession all bets are off because of the affordability stress in the current market, especially at the margin.

  132. 882
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 866
    I really like Ardell and I want her to make money. She’s earned it. I do not think in terms of how can I undercut the person helping me. That seems like bad business.

    And the special assessment was only approximately $9300. I just pulled some money out of a heloc and paid it. I can pay it off now that the sale has closed.

  133. 883
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 868
    I generally don’t copy/paste but I will here so I don’t mess up my interpretation. This is from this article.

    https://www.extension.harvard.edu/inside-extension/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

    ”Hypersupply:

    As long as the current occupancy rate exceeds the long-term average, there will be upward pressure on rents. As long as there is upward pressure on rents, new construction is financially feasible. This is the case for both the expansion and hyper-supply phases.

    The First Indicator of Trouble
    The delineation point between expansion and market hyper supply is marked by the first indicator of trouble in the real estate cycle: an increase in unsold inventory/vacancy.
    A line graph showing the characteristics of the expansion to hyper supply phases
    This occurs as new completions from the mid-expansion phase begin to quench the market’s thirst for product. With occupancy rates above the long-term average, rents are still rising but the rate at which they are rising now changes: rent growth is no longer accelerating, but rather decelerating.
    This is a precarious time in the real estate cycle. And what happens next will determine how severe the upcoming recession will be.”

    Do you think we are in Hypersupply or expansion? I’d say expansion, but that’s just me reading the article and trying to take my best guess.

    Wise developers, noting the change in direction of rent growth and factoring in the likely consequence of units currently under construction being completed, should choose to stop building. If you find such a developer, please let me know.”

  134. 884
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 868
    Prices kept going up from 2003 til 2007 during Hypersupply because all the loans. Government interfered and made money easily accessible so we wouldn’t go into recession. The more government interference and longer delay of recession, the harsher the recession.

    Hypersupply weighs supply and demand since it says more vacancies. That means demand is not keeping up with supply.

    I do believe this is a temporary lull, but I don’t really know. I liked when deerhawk compared nyc to Seattle saying Seattle is on the same path of upward prices and then a lull, then upward and lull, etc. etc. Longterm Seattle seems pretty solid to me which means this is a lull. Again, I’m not an expert or anything. I just read a lot and talk to people that are successful in real estate,

  135. 885
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 860
    Awww shucks Voight. I like you too.

  136. 886

    RE: Eastsider @ 872

    “This certainly is possible in cash sales…” Not a cash sale. Don’t assume most condo purchases are cash sales. If your advice only applies to cash sales…it is invalid. A lender will not allow credits in excess of closing costs.

    At the time the decision to prepay it was made, the buyer was unknown. So you can’t assume it will end up being a cash buyer. If you position it so that ONLY a cash buyer can buy it…then you get a much lower price.

    Give it up. It’s just not correct advice. Not by any stretch of the imagination. One more time, Erik did it correctly. Done!

  137. 887
    don says:

    RE: Realistic @ 871:

    Try this Fred chart :

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/sexrnsa

    You can search for series available to display using the edit button

  138. 888
    Justme says:

    Big runup in King County (Seattle and suburbs) SFH inventory last week was followed by a distinctly unimpressive reduction via pendings this week. The typical weekly minimum occurs tonight (Wed), and the reduction is less than the week before. Inventory ended barely below the peak of the week before.

    @seattletimes @SeattleBubble
    #housingbubble #buyerstrike #bustthebubble

    Graph available at
    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1131387635933466625

    Some bubble-mongers spent lots of time quibbling desperately about the shape of the curve earlier in this thread. The remarkable lack of pendings before the memorial day weekend ought to give said bubble-mongers pause.

    Join the buyer strike.

  139. 889
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 877 – This is getting ridiculous. If Erik had a choice of prepayment before listing his unit for sale, the prepayment is clearly optional. I bet most listings in that complex do not prepay the SA. If any unit gets sold to a noncash buyer, you just proved your ignorance.

  140. 890
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 873 – $9300 is a lot of money for a routine maintenance assessment. I am glad you got rid of it. It seems like a money pit and I would avoid such rental properties.

  141. 891
    Eastsider says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 870 – In 2007, mortgage rates were around 6%. Today they are around 4%. If low rates can’t help sales, something is amiss.

  142. 892
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 881
    Right, it’s tough to cash flow with assessments like that. It over doubled in value since I bought it in 2014, so don’t feel too bad for me. It will be nice to pay off debts and have some emergency fund cash.

  143. 893
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 883 – You can’t count on appreciation to bail you out. That’s not a business plan, especially today.

  144. 894
    Armk says:

    RE: Justme @ 879

    If you look at my old posts, you’ll know I – like you – have a vested interest in seeing this bubble pop. But I have some issues with your commentary here.

    You said “Inventory ended barely below the peak of the week before.” But if you look at the same week in years prior, the low point ended way higher above the peak of the previous week i.e. minimal absorption in years past. Sadly, the absorption of product was way higher this week than it was last year and the year before. Pretty much all the new inventory that came on this week got absorbed!

    You could say perhaps the base is higher, so on a percentage basis, absorption is not any better than prior years. But starting from end-April, you’ll see the downswings each week are much bigger in magnitude – not compared to the same weeks in prior years (which would be addressed by the percentage change argument), but versus the prior weeks this year. The typical pattern is that absorption does NOT improve going from spring into May, judging by 2018 and 2017. But it has this year. I am not sure if mortgage rates are causing this. But I would like to see if you have an explanation for this.

  145. 895

    RE: Eastsider @ 880

    Haha! All that was almost worth it to be called ignorant about real estate. Funny.

    So everyone should lose thousands in price so that one, who might happen to have a cash buyer, can save $800. OK. You win. LOL!

  146. 896

    RE: Armk @ 885

    Rates were already down before the market pushed unseasonably late in the season. Personally I felt the momentum shifted late because of the record snowfall in February. “February 2019: Seattle’s snowiest month in 50 years.” Seemed to push the normal cycle out a month.

  147. 897

    RE: Eastsider @ 884
    So True

    Just disagreeing with anyone that disagrees with your agenda is not a business plan…its a road to Hell.

  148. 898
    Joe says:

    RE: Armk @ 885

    Why are you nit-picking weekly stats when the recession hasn’t started yet?

    The 2009 RE price plummet didn’t really start until the recession began.

    All you need to know right now is we’ve had a decade long price run, well in excess of wage growth, spurred by temporary artificial interest rate suppression, and a recession is coming as unsustainable debt loads continue to mount.

  149. 899

    RE: Erik @ 883
    So True Erik

    No costly home puts burgers on the table. No costly home pays the doctor bills. No costly home pays the property taxes. etc, etc….

    Most survival aspects require MASS $CASH$. Period.

    And it gets FAR worse if you extend your debt to survive; the result is FAR less $CASH$ when ya retire.

  150. 900

    RE: Joe @ 889
    Hey Joe

    How can I put this in a polite way? What recession? Over 70% polled think the Trump economy is “good” and when I get my much larger Trump paychecks with FAR less tax taken out for income tax and Medicare. Larger Social Security and pensions’ COLAs [that were zero under Obama], I have no idea what your prediction is based on.

    Wishful Open Border Party (OBP) thinking to falsely discredit Trump’s “good” economy perhaps?

    Explain your case so I can understand it.

  151. 901
    Joe says:

    Oh my! What happened to all the great stock market stories?

    Tesla tanking. Uber and Lyft quite disappointing and precariously on a cliff. Boeing limping along. Amazon can’t trend up, let alone make new highs.

    More importantly, how to these failures impact general stock market sentiment? What would a stock market route do to Seattle RE prices?

  152. 902
    Blake says:

    RE: Joe @ 892RE: Joe @ 892
    Bloomberg headlines 5/23/2019, 8:11:14 AM
    Trade Worry Drives U.S. Stocks Lower, Boosts Bonds
    Oil Suffers Worst Day of 2019 as Trade Dispute Swamps Confidence
    U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Drops to Lowest Level Since 2017
    U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Drops to Nine-Year Low

    Missing headline: “Seattle RE Defies all Odds… buy buy buy!!”
    :-)

  153. 903
    Joe says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 891

    There is no way to predict the exact timing of a recession. All you have to know is that the table is set.

    People who insist on understanding the exact timing of things before acting get burned.

  154. 904

    RE: Joe @ 892
    Yes Joe Tesla is a Joke

    I think they finally woke up and smelled the electric car coffee and will admit we have no plan to get more continuous grid power for electric Teslas. The mandatory/planned solar cells on our homes won’t help at all either….solar cells don’t work at all at night.

    Tesla’s SpaceX is a joke too….the rockets crash and burn, or blow up…..Tesla was caught forging Safety SpaceX Engineering compliance [sounds like similar Boeing NWO MAX 8 FAA organized crime activity to me] too, reports the WSJ today. We need NASA back. Seattle needs Boeing Manufacturing back.

  155. 905

    RE: Joe @ 894
    If This Was Obama’s Economy On QE Welfare Debt to the Banks I’d Totally Agree With You

    But it isn’t. There’s too much money supply churning in the economy for a Recession. I’d give your hypothesis a 5% chance now, under the old QE debt economy, maybe 50%. Don’t compare the two as the same, they’re apples and oranges. Obama brought the stock market up short-term with debt, but we all knew there was a limit to this debt excuse. Economies built on $CASH$ are always more stable in the long run.

    https://apnews.com/9ce58decacf045f3bf9d8325fb0c9b8a

  156. 906
    Benjamin says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 895

    Tesla’s SpaceX is a joke too….the rockets crash and burn, or blow up

    You sound sharp….. Of course they’ve blown up a bunch of rockets in the process of making them reusable. Without SpaceX you don’t have reusable rockets and the cost of putting something in space is 600x. A falcon 9 costs 60 million to assemble and 200k to fuel.

    You can’t be stupid enough to want space exploration to be 600x more costly and there for 600x more limited.

  157. 907
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 894:

    There is no way to predict the exact timing of a recession. All you have to know is that the table is set.

    People who insist on understanding the exact timing of things before acting get burned.

    And yet we have several people who have been insisting for the past few years that we should be making major life decisions based on the looming disaster that will happen this year. Or next year. Or at least sometime soon.

    While most of the “bubble-mongers” have been saying pretty reasonable things like: “Run the numbers, and if you plan on staying here for 7+ years, buy what you can afford.”

  158. 908
    N says:

    I know some will discredit the source but interesting to see mortgage applications rising but sales falling on a national level – Maybe a little far reaching but….

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/05/21/us-home-sales-drop-drop-drop-despite-lower-mortgage-rates-but-mortgage-applications-jump-what-gives/

    So this poses an interesting situation: Months of falling sales of existing homes vs. surging purchase-mortgage applications.

    This may mean that people who borrow money to buy a home are out there trying to buy, while some people or entities that do not need a mortgage – such as cash-rich households, or investors that can borrow at the institutional level via bond sales and the like, or investors sourcing their funds from overseas, including those needing to launder some dirty money – are retreating from the market.

    According to the NAR’s report all-cash sales as a percent of total purchases inched down to a share of 20% of the transactions in April, down from a share of 21% in April last year.

    This pencils out to be a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.04 million all-cash transactions in April 2019 versus a rate of 1.14 million in April 2018: a decline of 8.8% or 100,000 on a SAAR basis, pushing down overall sales by about 2%.

    he “Geographic Targeting Orders” now cover certain counties in the metropolitan areas of Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle.

    So it is possible that these government reporting requirements, in addition to capital controls in China and other factors, have reduced real estate transactions funded by dubious cash or money transfers, and that home sales have slipped in part because of this, and that, given the opaque nature of these transactions, they may never have been fully reflected in the “all-cash” transactions reported by the NAR, so their decline wouldn’t be reflected either.

  159. 909
    LuLu says:

    RE: Blake @ 893
    Your house is your safe castle. When stock market crashed due to trade war and interested reset to 0%. At least you have a roof over your head. Not a piece of TSLA piece of paper.

  160. 910
    Blake says:

    By LuLu @ 899:

    RE: Blake @ 893
    Your house is your safe castle. When stock market crashed due to trade war and interested reset to 0%. At least you have a roof over your head. Not a piece of TSLA piece of paper.

    Indeed LuLu! I moved to Seattle in 2005 and discovered Seattlebubble in 2006. Based on what I was seeing and reading I decided NOT to buy then. Thank goodness… I ended up waiting til 2010. Smart! (I bought my first house in 1991 and built a lot of sweat equity fixing up 4 houses over the last 28 years).

    I post on Seattlebubble to warn others to be cautious and not to be drawn in by the hype about SEATTLE!!!! As Tim has pointed out many times: Houses are RARELY a good investment because they have a lot of expenses and upkeep, but if you want peace of mind and a roof over your head they are essential … IMHO.

    So glad that we sold my mother and father’s old house last November and my wife’s second condo/townhouse last month! Rough times ahead…

  161. 911
    Any says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 895

    SpaceX is revolutionizing the rocket industry by doing important things neither NASA nor Russia ever even attempted. You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about.

  162. 912
    Any says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 896

    You’re criticizing QE as debt-driven market growth while praising Trump’s tax cuts. The majority of the QE money is still in the system. The FED has been taking some of it out via QT but Trump wants them to stop that and actually start QE again.

    Your larger “Trump paychecks” you praise above are also adding to our debt. You’re saying QE was bad because it was debt driven, but Trump’s tax cuts are ok because… ? Both have inflated asset prices via debt, just different mechanisms..

    Trump is the champion of asset inflation right now. Its not an accident. Coincidence that a guy whose value is locked up in real estate is pushing for more inflationary policies (rate cuts and more QE)? Not at all…

  163. 913
    Justme says:

    RE: Armk @ 885

    >> Pretty much all the new inventory that came on this week got absorbed!

    Less than half of the amount of new SFH listing inventory since last week Wed night got absorbed by this week Wed night.

    (notice also that I said “amount”. I am not stating that it is necessarily the specific new listings that went pending, and probably neither are you :-)).

    >> You said “Inventory ended barely below the peak of the week before.”

    That was just an added-on observation, nothing terribly important. The important part was the statement

    The typical weekly minimum occurs tonight (Wed), and the reduction is less than the week before.

    That is, In both 2017 and 2018, the 2-week-before-MD inventory absorption to pending was bigger than the week before. In 2019 it was not. This is significant.

    >> The typical pattern is that absorption does NOT improve going from spring into May, judging by 2018 and 2017. But it has this year. I am not sure if mortgage rates are causing this. But I would like to see if you have an explanation for this.

    First of all, absorption has been low (mostly under ~50%) all year. That’s why inventory keeps building up. As for the higher absolute number pendings in the beginning of May, I think what Ardell just said is about right. My way of saying it would be that the season got started a bit late (weather-related) and a few more pendings got compressed into the early May timeframe. But then the compressed acticvity may have abated again. By the way, the rest of this week it is likely there will not be as many new listings as last week, because the conventional wisdom is that Memorial Day weekend is not an optimal time to hold an open house. So inventory will likely drift lower. But if it does not, that would be a significant development.

  164. 914
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 886:

    RE: Eastsider @ 880

    Haha! All that was almost worth it to be called ignorant about real estate. Funny.

    So everyone should lose thousands in price so that one, who might happen to have a cash buyer, can save $800. OK. You win. LOL!

    In Erik’s case, it may or may not make sense to prepay SA. If the SA were $60k, the extra cost would have been almost $5k. And I’m almost certain that he would not recoup the $65k. This is not a funny matter.

  165. 915
    David says:

    RE: Any @ 912 – The only way Trump reflated anything was through rapidly increasing investor sentiment.

    The Obama-era QE is what reflated everything (a Bernanke strategy because Obama absolutely is clueless about ANYTHING economic). Obama is what killed the economic sentiment that led to the Obama Depression.

    Only Bernanke is what saved housing and the markets – albeit over a very long time period.

  166. 916
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 914:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 886:

    RE: Eastsider @ 880

    Haha! All that was almost worth it to be called ignorant about real estate. Funny.

    So everyone should lose thousands in price so that one, who might happen to have a cash buyer, can save $800. OK. You win. LOL!

    In Erik’s case, it may or may not make sense to prepay SA. If the SA were $60k, the extra cost would have been almost $5k. And I’m almost certain that he would not recoup the $65k. This is not a funny matter.

    STOP. NO ONE GAF.

  167. 917
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.thestranger.com/news/2019/05/22/40268831/the-perfect-seattle-summer-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past

    This is a great read. This is so sad. These wildfires are out of control (no pun intended). It seems to be getting worst and worst each summer. Very poor environmental laws along with global temperatures rising (regardless if you believe they’re permanent or just cyclical and will return lower at some point, the facts show global temps increasing) has exasperated this problem.

  168. 918
    S-Crow says:

    Sale History of a Manufactured Home:

    2007: $26,500
    2010: $16,000
    2017: $51,750
    2019: $80,500

    This home has had minimal improvements and looks cosmetically/physically nearly the same today as in 2007.

    Lenders in this niche are setting themselves up for a substantial problem. Yes, they are selling loans to the homeowners from 7-10% interest on 10-20 year terms, so it is profitable until…..

  169. 919
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 892
    That’s what all the books say, that appreciation is just an extra. Well, if that was my thought process, I’d still be broke. I understand that is true in a perfect world or in the right market. I’m Seattle, you can just buy, hold, and sell when the market gets ripe and make a lot of money. If you go in waiting to find a cash flow deal in Seattle, you’ll be waiting a very long time.

    The market has gone down a little and may even go down a little more. Then it will take off again, watch.

  170. 920
    Deerhawke says:

    Interesting piece by Gene Balk (aka “The Data Guy”) in the Seattle Times this morning on net-inmigration to Seattle and the surrounding area.

    Seattle is down from #1 in the country to #2, but still and all saw very impressive growth in the past year. A bit more than 15,000 people moved to Seattle, a population increase of 2.1%. Add in the rest of King County the population grew an additional 13,500 last for a total of 28,500.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/big-city-growth-slows-across-u-s-but-seattle-still-ranks-no-2-in-2018/

    (Spoiler Alert–Expect Justme to tell us that this growth in net-inmigration never happened and in any event, is no reason to believe that real estate in the area is going to become a more sought-after commodity.)

  171. 921
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 920

    Well, guess what, you are right about one thing: Namely that I will correct your deceitful propaganda.

    >>A bit more than 15,000 people moved to Seattle,

    WRONG. 15,000 was the quoted population increase (netmigration+births-deaths), You attributed the whole change to net migration (moving). BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT. WRONG. I say this with some confidence because the article says the numbers were based on US Census data, which generally does look at the whole picture and not just migration.

    I am still waiting for SeattleTimes to post a proper link to their data source, which I could not find, but meanwhile it can be pointed out that the net migration to King County (Seattle and suburbs) was 5932 persons in 2016. No numbers available for Seattle City proper AFAIK.

    So, yeah, Deerhawke was guilty of deceit and propaganda again. And don’t forget that deaths free up housing whereas newborn children often are born into families that already occupy family housing, and children probably will not leave home for another 18 years or more.

  172. 922
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 921
    RE: Deerhawke @ 920

    The 2018 Seattle City population estimate is even more inaccurate (exaggerated most likely) than I suspected.

    In addition to the fact that the numbers are being propaganda-ized by the bubble-blowers and housing-inflation mongers, there is also the problem that these particular 2018 population estimates, even from the US Census Bureau, are not based even on a proper survey. I always thought that US Census only used survey-based numbers (Census or ACS), but it turns out that for 2018 they estimated population as HU * OR, where HU is HousingUnits (from 2018) and OR is OccupationRate (from 2010).

    This is the same highly inaccurate method that Washington OFM uses. The city and county keep track of all new HU being built and torn down, so that is quite accurate, but they have no way of knowing an accurate OR. We know there are lots of empty new apartments and condos in Seattle and King County. But said 2018 population estimate assumes these housing units are full! Very inaccurate.

    By the way, here is a link that goes directly to the data. Also on that page are links to the methodology documentation.

    https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2018/PEPANNRES/1620000US5363000

  173. 923
    kenmorem says:

    it would suck to live a life like justme. conspiracy theories everywhere. so sad.

    justme: what’s your plan to capitalize on the market downturn? when will you turn into a homeowner and make yourself rich? what’s the secret formula?

  174. 924
    QA Observer says:

    I would like to see a scatter graph of REIC mongers vs Strikers for the various personalities on this blog. The most interesting part could be from the use of a user-generated form fill survey to really illustrate biases. Fun Times!

  175. 925
    sfrz says:

    RE: Justme @ 922 – Deerhawke is most likely a Chamber of Commerce member, or cheerleader. (which promotes businesses)

  176. 926
    pedaltothemetal says:

    One of the boomers on my street has decided not to sell because he thinks his house is worth Zillow 2018 price. Keep on holding. Why sell at 10% off of top price when you can wait for 20%? I feel so bad for this guy, he’s got great moss. Mossier than 2018 for sure.

  177. 927
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Justme @ 922
    For the moment, let’s forget Seattle Times articles, and statistics, and anything else you don’t believe. Do you go outside often? Do you drive? Have you walked around downtown, Capitol Hill, Bell Town, Bellevue? I’ve lived in downtown Seattle for over 20 years now, and if you don’t see massive population growth, I’m sincerely perplexed. Tone is hard to convey in text, and I’m not trying to be snarky, but do you not see dramatic change/growth here?

  178. 928
    Erik says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 926
    If it’s a house in king county, your neighbor will probably sell for higher at a later date. Condos are getting a little iffy because so many are being built. New houses just aren’t being built.

  179. 929

    RE: Erik @ 831 – Yes Erik

    2014 was a great year to buy a Repo in my HOA

    That was when the pink one down the road went for $99K [short sale] and a year or two later listed for $288K…right now is a bad time to buy in Glenbrook….but I’m a $CASH$ investment buyer only. Its perfect for me, no money goes into it but lawn maintenance until it flips as is…LOL…I should make $50-100K anyway…

    BTW…they never mention repo short sales in listing histories…the realtors omit ’em all…Kansas too…

    I’m like a retired vulture, I’ll be patient and grab up the next one, like Trump…LOL

  180. 930
  181. 931
    Momentum says:

    Come for the crime stay for the ???? This model of a bubble is so strong Tacoma is now the new Seattle without amazon, Microsoft, tech this, or emo and man bun this or that!! RE: kenmorem @ 930

  182. 932
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 930 – Yes, this is one of the reasons prices in and around Seattle won’t just go to the moon. People move to outlying areas. They can keep their Seattle/Eastside job and telecommute a few days a week or all the time. Or they can get a job in the outlying area where they live, maybe paid slightly less but actually afford a nicer home in a nicer neighborhood than they could in or around Seattle. There are alternatives. People adapt.

  183. 933
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 932
    yeah, they adapt. but eventually, the whole region becomes so packed there is no room remaining to adapt. what was once open fields and trees and small communities along i-5 is now a nearly continuous megalopolis from olympia to everett, and the only thing preventing that from stretching clear through to b-ham is the hilly terrain by lake samish. once you get into canada, route 1 is the same as i-5. oregon is heading that direction, and california is mostly there. in a few decades, all of i-5 will be one big mega city, delineated only be arbitrary cities names that used to mean something.

  184. 934
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 933 – Yeah. It’ll be a while though. By then most of us will be taking a dirt nap and a new batch of whippersnappers will be fighting it out on here.

  185. 935
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 933 – People should look at Burien. Since they put in the tunnel, you have a direct injection into Seattle that pops out right at Amazon.

    Think of that – a hole that goes right into the bowels of Seattle. Something pfft can easily relate to.

  186. 936
    Eastsider says:

    US total fertility rate is at 32 year low at 1.728, far below the 2.1 replacement rate. When was the last time you saw children running around in Seattle? Maybe there will be an oversupply of homes instead of shortage when boomers pass on. Just a thought. LOL.

  187. 937
    kenmorem says:

    By Eastsider @ 936:

    US total fertility rate is at 32 year low at 1.728, far below the 2.1 replacement rate. When was the last time you saw children running around in Seattle? Maybe there will be an oversupply of homes instead of shortage when boomers pass on. Just a thought. LOL.

    it’s called immigration. thanks

  188. 938
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 936:

    When was the last time you saw children running around in Seattle?

    “For the first time in 50 years Seattle has more than 100,000 kids”
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/kids-making-a-comeback-more-than-100000-under-18-in-seattle-for-the-first-time-in-50-years/

    Still low among large cities, but maybe this recent uptick is a sign of more to come?

  189. 939
    Lulu says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 937

    Per child tax incentive is not enough to encourage couple to have more kids. All women are employed. No time to have more babies.

  190. 940
    uwp says:

    RE: Lulu @ 939 – And childcare is ridiculous.

  191. 941
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 938:

    “For the first time in 50 years Seattle has more than 100,000 kids”
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/kids-making-a-comeback-more-than-100000-under-18-in-seattle-for-the-first-time-in-50-years/

    Still low among large cities, but maybe this recent uptick is a sign of more to come?

    There is no uptick. Show me the percentage of under-18 population in Seattle over time and I am sure you will see a clear downtrend. Today u18 comprises 15.8% of Seattle residents, which is the third lowest among 50 largest US cities. Further, data shows that natives are not producing relative to non natives.

  192. 942
    Eastsider says:

    By kenmorem @ 937:

    it’s called immigration. thanks

    You mean illegal immigration… like the hundreds of thousands crossing the southern border this year? We can’t import legal immigrants fast enough to fix the shortfall.

    Again, 1.728 total fertility rate includes all current US residents.

  193. 943
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 939
    I’m moving from Seattle to the north so my wife can have time with our baby.

  194. 944
    Justme says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 930

    What this means is that the Seattle housing price bubble is busting (now for 12months since ~ April 2018 peak), but ill-informed panic-buyers still exist and have fled all the way to Tacoma. This is how bubbles work, they spread to the outlying areas and then they bust from the center and outwards the same way they originally spread from the center and outwards.

    Maybe Seattle is a lot like Sidney has been. Sidney created huge price bubbles in the outlying areas as well, and now they are busting. Watch out, Tacoma!

    http://housingbubble.blog/?p=1740

    “Mr Hempton recalled how he and Mr Tepper, posing as a gay graphic designer couple with ‘low and variable’ income, travelled around Sydney talking to lending officers, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and developers to see how much they could borrow.”

    “‘It was pretty clear bad practice was ubiquitous and the further you went from the centre of Sydney the worse it got,’ he said. ‘In particular if you went north and west. Norwest Business Park, Kellyville, Rouse Hill, they were surreal, whereas if you went south and west they were just wacky.’”

  195. 945
    Deerhawke says:

    By Erik @ 943:

    RE: Lulu @ 939
    I’m moving from Seattle to the north so my wife can have time with our baby.

    Hard to see you going back to Everett.
    Shoreline? Edmonds?

  196. 946
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 944 – SIdney? How about the intergalactic housing bubble?

    Did you hear about the new inflatable housing module sent up to the Space Station? I mean this was a literal housing bubble. It must be fought – tooth and nail.

  197. 947
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 930

    It is natural that people will drive until they qualify, but going south is really a miserable commute. That area around Federal Way is nearly always clogged now. On the other hand, the Sounder is an ok way to commute and light rail will arrive in a few years.

  198. 948
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 942:

    Again, 1.728 total fertility rate includes all current US residents.

    Sounds like the number of babies being born might be under-representing the cohort that is entering household formation mode. Someone should tell Justme.

  199. 949
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 948 – If you are truly interested in data, the current cohort is never going to form households or own homes at the same rate as the previous generations. Sad!

  200. 950
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 945
    Heading all the way up to Camano island. I work in Everett and my parents and siblings all live up there in Camano. The idea is that if for whatever reason my wife needs to work, my family could watch our son. I still want to play around with real estate in Seattle though. Plus, I do like Camano Island. It’s a little sunnier than the surrounding areas and much cheaper than Seattle.

  201. 951
    MD says:

    The frantic pace of the comments here – the debates about every little thing, from population growth to yields to inventory levels to inventory uptake etc etc etc – it all tells me that the bust is in full swing.

    There’s always this sheer disbelief at the end of the cycle, when boom turns to bust. You’d think people would realize that the economy can and does turn south. Yet they forget, and here we are, plunging Treasury yields and faltering stock and real estate markets, and people are still clutching to the hope that it’s not over.

    It’s over.

  202. 952
    Erik says:

    RE: MD @ 951
    So the way you determine that there is going to be a big real estate bust is by waiting until there are about 1000 comments on a website nobody really reads anymore and then you see how the commenters interact? I’m pretty sure the people that are on here just want to debate and are bored because Tim is only posting once per 1000 comments. I wouldn’t read to deep into our interactions. We have just run out of things to talk about because Tim isn’t posting any new data. I recommend looking at things like GDP and jobs in America which are both doing very well.

  203. 953
    Momentum says:

    I think this is relevant to this site again.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=GTQnarzmTOc

  204. 954

    More New Raw Data to Digest

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-20/rural-america-verge-collapse

    Please Scroll down to the map of the USA…note that Kansas St and Wash St are equally on the verge of collapse….most of our red areas are rural areas away from Seattle city center. The slightly better green areas are as high as it gets too…no affluent blue areas anymore. The portion of Kansas City, KS is green area too….parts of Wichita and KSU too.

    We share the same avg pay with Kansas too….but home prices and “normal lot sizes” in Kansas make Seattle look like a laughing stock in comparison. It is what it is. Ohhh…the tornado storms hit Kansas but the tornadoes don’t like water and rarely touch down at the triad of large rivers in Kansas City area, Jefferson City MI sure got hit bad though. But we have earthquakes and river floods, Seattle has bad weather too…with volcanoes too.

  205. 955

    RE: Benjamin @ 906
    NASA Had Real Rocket Scientists With Decades of Experience before Bush/Obama laid them all off

    The rockets weren’t blowing up one after another like SpaceX, even during development….sell that Tesla stock now.

    SpaceX has green engineers and circus barkers…its a phony space program Obama invented…

  206. 956

    RE: Erik @ 952RE: softwarengineer @ 954
    Yes Erik

    I like your Camino Island idea for day care access from relatives….daycare will eat you alive. I was a single dad with two in Kindercare….my care bill was horrifying too…I don’t know how I paid it with alimony too….LOL….the tax deduction helped little too…

  207. 957

    RE: Momentum @ 953
    Yep

    Only the court fighters are Mueller and Trump anymore, Its Durham and Obama now, fighting to keep their platforms…LOL

  208. 958

    RE: Deerhawke @ 947
    What Good Are Trains When They Rarely Drop You Off Anywhere Close to Work?

    I know wait an hour for the next bus scheduled? LOL Trains are a joke too. Without a car, most of us are screwed, why can’t we just be honest admit it? Hades we’re all hypocrites and own cars anyway….LOL

  209. 959
    Justme says:

    Weekend inventory update graphs are up, please check the link

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1132324612899872768

    Quite remarkable this year is that the customary Memorial Day downward slide in inventory has failed to materialize, signalling that sellers and their agents has deemed it necessary to get new listings on the market pronto, rather than wait for the holiday weekend to pass. This is historically unusual, and in particular this behavior did not occur in 2017 and 2018, as can be seen from the SFH graph. Are we seeing the start of a selling panic?

    Please follow and retweet. Data needs to be socialized with as many potential buyers and sellers as possible. More commentary soon to follow right here on SeattleBubble.

    The buyer strike is alive and well, and causing more price reductions. Keep striking. Let’s bust this bubble, and good!

    #housingbubble #buyerstrike #bustthebubble #sellingpanic

  210. 960
    Justme says:

    Link should be as follows, while waiting for edit to take hold, use this link

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1129804666911334400

  211. 961

    First Time Buyers Eye Buying In?

    I’m sure the avg Millennial per capita pay [$40,000 x 1.2 incomes per household= approx $50K] is plenty for the kids to survive in their dinky college educated incomes now.

    https://www.apnews.com/4dba15376df3463c99c7a03bcb28276e

    I’m sure they qualify for a cheaper Auburn apartment rent with the evicted illegal aliens that got repossessed like crazy a few years ago….

  212. 962
  213. 963
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, King County active inventory, graphical edition

    Commentary: This weekend is the Memorial Day weekend, and something remarkable happened: Instead of the usual new listing slowdown and associated slide of inventory count before the Memorial Day Weekend (MDW), this year the inventory made a U-turn midweek and headed higher again.

    An inventory U-turn midweek is part of the normal weekly listing/pending cycle, but NOT common the week before Memorial Day. Why? Because agents and their sellers know that MDW is traditionally a suboptimal time to publish a new listing and have an open house. After all, many potential buyers are gone for the holiday and will take a break from going to open houses and studying new listings. But this year the sense of urgency on part of sellers is palatable. Better get that product on the market as soon as possible, MDW be damned! Is this the start of a selling panic coming on?

    More generally, product sales continue to lag new listings, and many sellers are being left behind. Price reductions are commonplace, with 310 price reductions for KC SFH product the last 7 days. Many >4wk old listings are languishing on the market. There is little doubt that the bubble-bust is in full swing. There are lots of sellers, but not enough willing buyers at the prices being offered. Many buyers are on strike, refusing to buy at currently offered prices. Sellers have gone from “I think I’ll wait another year” to “Better get my house on the market before it is too late”. Still, many sellers are over-pricing the market by a significant amount, and their product is languishing.

    Absorption of product continues to be well below 50%, with SFH absorption to pending at 41% for the last 4 weeks. Clearly, many buyers are unwilling to participate at the current price levels. It’s that pesky buyer strike, again. Buyers that find themselves competing with another buyer will do well in just withdrawing from bidding. Better yet, don’t do any bidding at all, and join the strike. The sellers had their seller strike in 2013-2018, and uninformed buyers engaged in panic-buying. No more. It is time to show the sellers who really sets the price.

    https://imgur.com/gallery/E6Q34YR

    2019-05-25 King County SFH active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-25 King County Condo active for-sale inventory 2017-2019
    2019-05-25 King County SFH active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017
    2019-05-25 King County Condo active for-sale inventory ratio YYYY/2017

    The graphs compare 2017-2019 inventory on an hourly basis. 2017 was the year inventory was at a multi-year low for most of the year, a fact that was much ballyhooed by the sell-side and inflation-mongers of the property market. But the shoe is now on the other foot. Combine the increase in inventory with a much more realistic criterion that 1month worth of active inventory is all that is needed for a “balanced market”, the property market has shifted radically since March 2018 and continues to do so in 2019. Click the link and scroll to see the graphs. Click on each graph for an enlarged view. ESC and scroll to navigate.

    Many potential homebuyers in King County went on strike in April 2018, and over a year later, the strike is still going strong, with the (delayed by 3.5 months) Case-Shiller index dropping for 8 months in a row in the expensive areas. Lower-priced KC subregions are having a small spring price bump, due to foolish or uninformed or priced-out buyers that are still overbidding on product in the lower-priced subregions.

  214. 964

    The NASA Space Shuttle Was Designed in 1968

    It was used for like 50 years. Period. Hardly any of the Baby Boomers had anything to do with its development either, lets be honest….it was my dad’s Oldsmobile.

    The SpaceX has all these “so called” improvements that explode and fail continuously the last 5-10 development years; of course experience and skills matters.

    Nope…our space programs today are obsolete moon landings by India and “Hollywood” Mars projects that never evolve to “real” manned missions. But Matt Damon is a cute star….LOL

  215. 965

    RE: Erik @ 952
    They Predicted a Big Stock Crash After Trump Was Elected in 2016 Too

    They all did, especially economist and NWO business tycoons. They were all wrong. COMPLETELY WRONG.

    I will say that certain businesses are hurt by the Tariffs, like Boeing’s China outsourcing…who the Hades cares? If there’s a glut due to Tariffs in America, my prices go down for food and jets too…its called supply and demand. I like 99 cent bacon when Canada pays more for their pork, etc, etc..

    Why is making our bank accounts bigger bad? America first, why are we last anyway?

  216. 966

    Hey Bubbleheads

    I read half of Koontz The Night Window [May 2019 publish]….he brings out philosophical aspects of today’s Seattle real estate environment. The greedy rich with no morals despising retirees on Social Security “sucking our government of all its resources”, poor folks working normal jobs wanting livable pay, hatred toward rich folks [even though they are the rich too], etc, etc…

    And we’re trying to predict the future in this theoretical mess? LOL….build MASS solar cells to power America that don’t charge electric cars at night anyway…LOL…the village idiots took control.

  217. 967
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 959
    RE: Justme @ 960

    Link mess alert. The correct link is now in the original post, but the correction has the incorrect link :-). Here is the correct one again, ending in 2768

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1132324612899872768

  218. 968
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 965
    I lost some respect for warren buffet when he was telling everyone the stock market was going to crash if trump was elected. He surely knew better and was spewing lies like Sfrz, Joe and Justme are doing because they think they will trick people so they can gain. That’s called low morals. You have high morals and that’s something I respect.

  219. 969
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 956
    You’re a good man SWE.

  220. 970
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 968 – That’s Orwellian. Why would I spew lies? I have nothing to gain. You, on the other hand, have spewed buy buy buy BS for years on this site, and have proven that YOU DO have something to gain. You and Ardell both gained on that FB, debt donkey you just unloaded on. No one believes you. You have lied repeatedly, trying to coerce the vulnerable into buying into the bubble. Why the concern? You just stated no one reads this blog in an earlier post.
    As I’ve said before. This blog is the Seattle BUBBLE. Come to the table, take what helps, leave the rest.

  221. 971
    Joe says:

    RE: Erik @ 968

    Really? Anybody who disagrees with you has low morals? You are rationalizing. You should think about how that is clouding your judgement.

  222. 972
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 971
    You are telling everyone on Seattle Bubble that the market is crashing in Woodinville because you went to some open houses and nobody was there. I thought to myself “this a-hole is trying to manipulate the market because he thinks it will get him a lower price.” Now is a buying opportunity since the market has softened. King County inventory is still historically low, so prices have upward pressure.. We are still in expansion. You are either purposely lying to people or you just don’t understand the market. Which one is it?

  223. 973
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 970
    I apologize Sfr. I believe you truly don’t understand the housing market. You may be come by all this honestly and it’s rude for me to criticize you for that.

  224. 974
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 971RE: sfrz @ 970
    Basically, I want my friends on Seattle Bubble to do well and get rich. Your comments are feeding people bad information. I’ll call you out on the carpet for that.

  225. 975
    Scotsman says:

    No recent comments about Amazon moving to Bellevue? That alone should secure housing prices on the Eastside for several years. I’d be looking for deals out along I-90, Hobart, Issaquah, North Bend, north up the valley from Fall City, etc. Sure, it’s not Seattle proper, but the market will be growing.

  226. 976
    Scotsman says:

    Several homes in my area had been sitting on the market, mostly $750k to $1.4M, some since early last fall. Within weeks of the announcement of Amazon’s move all were sold.

  227. 977
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 975 – It would be a highly speculative move to run out and buy a home on the Eastside based on a possible Amazon migration that wouldn’t happen for several years, and could actually be derailed pretty easily by an economic downturn or a variety of other things.

    But if you feel like rolling the dice, nothing is stopping you.

  228. 978
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 977
    If it doesn’t workout, you could just hold the asset longer. Renting houses in this area is low risk.

  229. 979
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 974 – Do you realize how arrogant and self-aggrandizing you sound? Gawd.
    This is why you get pummeled. When you jump up on your imaginary throne, you are going to get knocked off. He knows more than us, he is going to get rich, and doggone it, he’s better than the rest of us!

    Arrogant Erik is back in the house! Gone was that softer, gentler Erik after his kid was hatched.

  230. 980
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 978 – That’s a pretty cavalier attitude when it comes to purchasing an asset north of $800K. The RE market isn’t always like 2014-2017.

  231. 981
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 978:

    If it doesn’t workout, you could just hold the asset longer. Renting houses in this area is low risk.

    This is totally false. You just got rid of a bad rental condo unit. The only reason you did okay was the tremendous appreciations (which won’t happen again in your lifetime) of the past few years. Rental properties in this area do not cash flow and do not pencil out without appreciations. That’s not even counting unmitigated risks such as earthquake. Further, tenants have reached their limits in rents so landlords will have to absorb future cost increases (e.g. property tax, transit, etc.)

  232. 982
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 979
    I just get tired of the lies. Enough is enough. Why are you misleading the people on here?

    Joe was totally trying to manipulate people on here into making a bad decision. I called him out and he disappeared. My honest opinion is that you just don’t understand the market based on your comments. You went from high school to selling houses. Do your clients a favor and learn about economics.

    Justme is much more intelligent than you. That person is purposely trying to manipulate people into making a poor decision for whatever reason. Maybe he’s paid by some investment company that wants to invest in Seattle residential real estate?

  233. 983
    Armk says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 981

    Disclaimer that I have only lived in apartment buildings here, so my comment pertains to that and not to SFH. That said, I join your skepticism in wondering how profitable it is to be renting out an apartment. Given the market rents here compared to the purchase prices, the rates of return must be awfully low. Again, maybe it is more profitable to be renting out a SFH than an apartment unit, so maybe there is that intrinsic value support for SFH.

  234. 984
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 981
    Are you a landlord?

  235. 985
    Erik says:

    RE: Armk @ 983
    Investors are saying to invest in single family houses right now based on supply and demand. King county isn’t building enough single family houses. I own all condos and there are lots coming to market soon. I sold one and I’ll keep the rest.

  236. 986
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 979
    I’m a very nice man and I care about people. I care so much that I want to expose people like you so the people on here don’t believe your lies and make a bad financial decision.

  237. 987
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 986 – Being nice has nothing to do with making good investment decisions. Your timing was good but that was about it. There are no investment rental properties in the Seattle market at today’s prices. You only hope is for prices to continue to appreciate above inflation. That is speculation, not investment. There is nothing wrong with speculation but you can’t tell people RE is a sure way to make money like those seminars and many irresponsible people here.

  238. 988
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Armk @ 983 – Your skepticism is correct, If you decide to get into landlord business today, SFH and condo rental properties have negative returns after taking into account borrowing costs, maintenance, management and taxes, Your only hope is asset appreciation which is less likely at today’s elevated prices.

    Flipping and new construction can work if prices are stable but margin is nothing to brag about compared to the last few years.

  239. 989
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 982 – Incorrect,arrogant assumption again. I wish I could think like you, but I can’t get my head that far up my arse.

  240. 990
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 986 – Don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back Emperor. Your assumptions are a shortcut for lack of first hand knowledge.
    Again. It is you that continuously misleads on this page. Cheerleading for the bubble, encouraging people to buy. You point at me for your scurrilous actions.
    I bought and sold more homes -NOT CONDOS- than you will ever dream of.

  241. 991
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 987
    I admit it is scary getting started for sure. I started when I was single and depressed and felt like I had nothing to lose. I was like, f-it, who really cares, I’m not that happy anyways. I lost big on my first remodel, but kept after it and have recovered since then. I learned a lot about not biting off note than you can chew.

    If you can time the market right and limit your scope, you can make a lot of money. Lately I just try to put as little down as possible and time it right. I bet in the next 2 years, houses go up in value in king county. Perhaps even 8% per year? I wish condos would go up because that is what I have, but honestly my immediate future there isn’t looking so bright. Too much inventory coming to market from what I read. I’ll probably hang onto what I got and just grind it out. I got rid of the one with special assessments and my cash flow isn’t that far negative, so I should survive.

  242. 992
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 990
    Why is the number of houses you’ve bought and sold a badge of honor or some metric of success? This is the second time you’ve made that comment like we are having a d!ck measuring contest. I honestly don’t get it. I would say the less transactions are better, right? Why pay an agent and the government if you don’t have to? My hope is to buy and sell the least possible times before I get the cash flow I need to quit working for money.

    I study the market obsessively. I’m fascinated with the patterns and theories on what affects housing prices. When I clearly see the market going up from what the theory/indicators, I encourage people to buy as I am usually doing when I make the call. Right now is a great time to buy a house in king county and sell it in 2 years. Someone that bought owner occupied would probably make $100k if they buy right and did paint, appliances, and flooring. It’s easy money! Full disclosure, I’m not buying a house in king county, I’m buying in Island County go personal reasons.

    I’m not an agent competitor of yours. I’m a math nerd that is very interested in timing the real estate market and placing bets via buying condos and selling them. It’s a lot of fun and I really like it. But do tell me why you think the number of homes you have bought and sold is a metric of success. I’m genuinely curious.

  243. 993
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 980
    I have a very cavalier attitude in general. I like to really go for it. It’s exciting to me. There’s stress, there’s uncertainty, but if you study the market and take your best guess, you gotta trust it. If you do get lucky, you could really prosper. If you are wrong, you may have to figure out an exit strategy where you don’t lose too much. If you do nothing, you go nowhere.

  244. 994
    Armk says:

    By Erik @ 992:

    RE: sfrz @ 990
    I study the market obsessively. I’m fascinated with the patterns and theories on what affects housing prices. When I clearly see the market going up from what the theory/indicators, I encourage people to buy as I am usually doing when I make the call. Right now is a great time to buy a house in king county and sell it in 2 years. Someone that bought owner occupied would probably make $100k if they buy right and did paint, appliances, and flooring. It’s easy money! Full disclosure, I’m not buying a house in king county, I’m buying in Island County go personal reasons.

    I’m not making a statement about your character or motives because I don’t know you. This is just a general observation (which I would imagine you know from studying markets) that if you are highly convicted that the market is going one direction, you load up on all you can get first, and then start telling people about it. In a market as illiquid as housing (high transaction costs as % of price), each incremental buyer competing against you moves the price against you, and costs you more money to establish your investment position. It is only when you are done buying (and likely looking to offload your existing holdings) that you spread the word. This is not unique to housing – the ideas you hear from fund managers on CNBC are stocks that they have bought all they are going to. You would never hear a fund manager pitch a stock on CNBC without first having established a position, because it makes it harder and more expensive for him to buy. So if you are truly both buying and telling others to buy at the same time, that is not in your rational self interest and you should probably stop doing one or the other.

    Second, I am curious what data points you would need to see to make you change your mind and start thinking it’s time to sell (or stop buying). I am similarly curious what data points justme (who holds an equally convicted yet opposite view that we are in a buyers strike) would need to see to change his mind, and start looking to buy.

  245. 995
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 991 – You are one optimistic person!

    I bet in the next 2 years, houses go up in value in king county. Perhaps even 8% per year?

    Right now is a great time to buy a house in king county and sell it in 2 years. Someone that bought owner occupied would probably make $100k if they buy right and did paint, appliances, and flooring. It’s easy money!

    I hope no one took your “advice” to buy a house a year ago. Perhaps you can now help them figure out an exit strategy where they don’t lose too much. LOL.

  246. 996
    Erik says:

    RE: Armk @ 994
    I do not think my comments sway enough buyers to change the market at all and think it’s ridiculous that people on here think they can affect the market. Plus, I would never do that to people I know, that is what mean people do and that’s not me. I say that before I buy or sell, I’m not a scammer. There are no secrets here. Justme and Joe are trying to trick people, I guess Sfrz just comes by ignorance honestly.

    My analysis is very simple, I weigh the status of the market against the sine wave that shows a classic asset bubble. That classic bubble is common in economics, and you can find it easily. Then all I do is figure out where we are at along the asset bubble curve. Spoiler alert, we are still in expansion for single family houses in king county per my best guess. This is fairly simple. The difficult part is figuring out where we are at. Look at what is being built. Barely any houses are being built in king county. A google tower and an Amazon tower are being built in Seattle. Look at the data! Housing prices will go up, watch. I wish condo prices would go up but a lot are coming online, so I’m not so sure.

  247. 997
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 995
    Are you a landlord? You seem very jealous of me.

  248. 998
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 995
    I’ve started a successful real estate investing business since being on here and you haven’t. That’s why you are jealous of me. I’m not stopping you, what is stopping you is your own fear of failure. Trying to beat me down will not get you or me any further along. If you don’t own anything, it’s a no brainer to me, go buy something.

  249. 999

    Why Are Property Taxes in Seattle So High When No One Would Vote Them This High?

    Its a good question, similarly, like when did the High Technology Elite decide we weren’t important as a sovereign nation and legal citizens? Their control of our lives is more important now?

    We were discussing Tesla and SpaceX under Elan Musk. Dean Koontz, in The Night Window , pg281-282 does too, it exposes the reason why perhaps?

    “….Son….some years now I been watching the world go crazy with technology. Twenty years, we been told the Internet and Smartphones and all the new ways we get information are makin’ us smarter, but lately all the studies show our attention span shrinkin’ along with our IQ. There’s that man that builds electric cars, says we need to move to Mars to save the human race, as if a world with no air and maybe two buckets of water, a cold ways from the sun, can be some kind of paradise. Same man and some other movers and shakers say robots are gonna be a lot smarter than the folks who design and build them, but the precedent tells us think again….So when you say these Arcadians are hell-bent on changin’ the world by injecting nanomachines into people’s brains [hypothetical brainwashing and TOTAL mind control]….Well, the idea seems no less likely than schemin’ to move a few million people to Mars and build cities for them when we can’t even figure how to help the homeless here among us.”…

    Dean Koontz rocks….have a great Memorial Day weekend, bring a coat ;-)

  250. 1000
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By Eastsider @ 936:

    US total fertility rate is at 32 year low at 1.728, far below the 2.1 replacement rate. When was the last time you saw children running around in Seattle? Maybe there will be an oversupply of homes instead of shortage when boomers pass on. Just a thought. LOL.

    Yep, immigration and the massive influx of millennial into prime home buying age mitigate current baby count. The demographics you quoted will become an issue down the road, but first come the boomers killing our government’s finances because of the pop-age pyramid inversion. Assuming MMT works we may very well see nominal prices to the moon!

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