NWMLS: Listings up, sales flat, prices fall in May

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The NWMLS published their May stats today, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in May, the third month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this week, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Pending and closed sales are increasing, but only modestly.

The NWMLS hasn’t published their press release yet, so let’s get straight into the numbers.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

May 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,511 +26.2% +54.9%
Closed Sales 2,642 +23.1% +6.8%
SAAS (?) 1.57 +5.0% -1.1%
Pending Sales 3,388 +8.3% +2.3%
Months of Supply 1.71 +2.5% +45.1%
Median Price* $700,000 +1.4% -3.6%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory was up 26 percent from April to May, which is the second-largest May increase on record. May of last year saw a 37 percent month-over-month gain. This month’s inventory level is the highest we’ve seen at the end of May since 2012. Overall, the supply situation is still a good sign for buyers.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up 29 percent from April to May, and were up six percent from a year ago. It’s the highest number of new listings in the month of May since 2012.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales rose 23 percent between April and May, and were up 7 percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between 2,300 and 2,700 in May every year since 2013, and this year is no exception.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales rose 8 percent month-over-month and were basically flat year-over-year. At the same time last year, pending sales were up 24 percent month-over-month.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

We knew the huge gains late last year wouldn’t last. Although the rate of increase is falling off fast, we’re still in basically record territory. Very few times have seen year-over-year gains in inventory that were this large.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

That’s three months in a row of falling prices compared to a year ago. Definitely interesting. Perhaps prices around here have finally hit a saturation point?

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

May 2019: $700,000
May 2018: $726,275
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

So far there’s no story posted yet on the May data from the Seattle Times. I’ll update this post when their story goes up.

Side-note: In case you missed it, last month the Seattle Times real estate reporter Mike Rosenberg was suspended from his job for inappropriate behavior. His harassment detailed in that story is very disappointing and frankly, gross. Men should treat all women with respect, all the time. It is really not that hard. It’s especially disappointing to me because I have highly respected his work at the Times for years.

[Update]
Here’s Paul Roberts’ story for the Seattle Times: Seattle housing market stays cool, while Tacoma and suburbs keep up the heat

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

676 comments:

  1. 501

    By Deerhawke @ 492:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 491

    In the new construction sale transactions I am involved in, receiving the inspection reports is routine so I suppose we will need to get in the habit of requesting them. I think a lot of agents will need training on this.

    I personally find it delightful or infuriating to read the reports. If the inspector is an experienced builder, his/her comments focus on explaining to the client the advantages of the advanced systems in their new house. If the inspector is the graduate of one of the new online academies and has no building experience, you can get all kinds of alarmed oddball comments complete with exclamation points. Dealing with that is always fun.

    Yes, that’s true–builders tend to want to see the reports. But builders are arguably effectively on notice of everything about the house, since they built it. And yes, the quality of inspectors varies widely.

  2. 502
    Jeff says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 492

    One upshot of the RE bubble deflating is that there will likely be a larger pool of highly qualified builders looking to pick up extra work as home inspectors. Problem solved kinda sorta. Of course the home inspection industry will be competing with Home Depot for this talent pool.

  3. 503
    David says:

    RE: Jeff @ 495 – What builders? They disappeared during the Obama Depression.

  4. 504
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 494 – The change means Realtors will just tell Sellers it failed the inspection. The Buyer will have found a better house he likes during the waiting period for the inspection. House is off the market. Inspection never actually happens. Buyer moves on. Seller has to start all over again with “Back on the Market” with no real reason stated.

  5. 505
    Justme says:

    RE: Jeff @ 495

    OUCH!
    :-)

  6. 506
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 496

    It’s comforting to know we can always count on you to blame Obummer for the recession that started before he took office. This snowflake ain’t falling for it. I’m confident you’ll be blaming the next D for the mess the current P is making.

  7. 507
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 497
    Previously you stated that you are a lawyer. What field do you practice law?

  8. 508

    By David @ 497:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 494 – The change means Realtors will just tell Sellers it failed the inspection. The Buyer will have found a better house he likes during the waiting period for the inspection. House is off the market. Inspection never actually happens. Buyer moves on. Seller has to start all over again with “Back on the Market” with no real reason stated.

    Unless the buyer backs out without stating a specific reason the seller would have a duty to disclose any valid material conditions the buyer pointed out. But that’s an entirely different issue than whether a seller should have to work through a laundry list created by an unqualified inspector they had no say in picking who doesn’t know what they are talking about.

    But as to your point, sometimes sellers don’t disclose things they learn in an inspection. That puts them at legal peril. And if the agent is involved, as would be likely, that not only puts them in legal peril, it threatens their licensing. Does it happen? Sure.

  9. 509
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 493

    Inventory of 6,000 looks in the bag. Maybe 7,000 is the new stretch goal for 2019. This is starting to smell like the beginnings of seller panic.

    One thing for sure, they’ll be a lot more selection coming on line. No need to buy a moss pit now when the selection is getting better by the week. And prices are sinking. Prudent buyers are waiting to see how low they go.

  10. 510
    MD says:

    RE: Joe @ 502 – I was a buyer in 2015, but I didn’t buy because I thought prices were too high even then.

    Nowadays, I see how much these houses pay in taxes, and I see how little we get in terms of controlling the homeless situation. There’s no chance I’m buying anything in this city now, not unless we get a 70% price reduction.

    Seattle is too expensive, and frankly Seattle is far less desirable than it was even only a few years ago.

  11. 511

    By Joe @ 502:

    RE: Justme @ 493 – Inventory of 6,000 looks in the bag. Maybe 7,000 is the new stretch goal for 2019. This is starting to smell like the beginnings of seller panic..

    You people crack me up. We aren’t even at 5,000 yet as of right now, and even if we were that would still be under 2 months supply. This market only looks “bad” to you due to the the crazy extreme market we went through the past couple 2-3 years.

    Ditto regarding some of the price comments. It’s not even clear values are down–just the median.

    Number 5,000 from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  12. 512
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Jeff @ 499 – Obama inherited the Great Depression 2, caused by rampant financial fraud under the worst president of all time, George W. Bush. Obama could have been a truly great and courageous president, but instead he was more of the same – Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Eric Holder, revolving door between Wall Street and the USG, no criminal bankers going to jail, even for dealing with terrorists and drug cartels, etc. But let’s be clear, it isn’t so much about parties – both are in the pockets of monied interests. And recall, Bill Clinton ending Glass-Steagall and implementing other financial regulation, setting the stage for the meltdown.

    “President Clinton’s tenure was characterized by economic prosperity and financial deregulation, which in many ways set the stage for the excesses of recent years. Among his biggest strokes of free-wheeling capitalism was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, a cornerstone of Depression-era regulation. He also signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which exempted credit-default swaps from regulation. In 1995 Clinton loosened housing rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act, which put added pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods. It is the subject of heated political and scholarly debate whether any of these moves are to blame for our troubles, but they certainly played a role in creating a permissive lending environment.”

    http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877322,00.html

  13. 513

    RE: Blurtman @ 505 – I continue to believe Presidents get way too much credit and blame for the economy. They don’t do that much, they don’t control that much, and a lot of it is just good or bad timing. Congress and the Fed have much more of an impact on the economy.

    I also continue to believe the economy is not doing nearly as well as what the stats would suggest. Unemployment is low because many older people gave up looking, others became addicted to prescription drugs and others decided to become taxi drivers or other personal servants under Uber, et. al. Putting drug addiction aside, if we had such a roaring economy we wouldn’t be dealing (ineffectively) with a homeless crisis and we’d be seeing higher wages.

    But at the same time I really question most the Democratic candidates claims about how the economy is working only for the 1%. Over half the families living in Seattle earn over $100,000 a year. My concern is some of them (e.g. Sanders) would make the economy worse, not better, if they could get their proposals through Congress.

  14. 514
    Joe says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 504

    Kary you have a front seat but do you see what’s going on? The trends are clear and established . Everything is heading DOWN since last Spring. Median prices are way down. Case-Shiller monthly index has been going down rather quickly from highs and will soon reflect year-over-year declines.

    Anybody who buys near the top of this decade-long buyer panic will regret it. Hopefully real estate agents are advising their buyers about the risks and the declining state of affairs. Real estate price trends extend over periods of many years. Now that the trend is clearly down, it won’t reverse quickly. The new trend is just getting started but is firmly established. Look at the inventory supply charts to get a good picture of where prices are going. This is basic economics at work.

  15. 515
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 506 – You may want to recalibrate that POV after observing the current president. (And for the record, I campaigned for Bernie and voted for Jill Stein.)

  16. 516

    By Joe @ 507:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 504

    Kary you have a front seat but do you see what’s going on? The trends are clear and established . Everything is heading DOWN since last Spring. Median prices are way down. Case-Shiller monthly index has been going down rather quickly from highs and will soon reflect year-over-year declines..

    Ignoring the fact that short-term movements do not necessarily reflect long-term trends, all those items mentioned were affected by bidding wars which bid houses up over FMV. There’s a reason people were trying to strike or otherwise limit appraisal provisions during that period. We are currently at a median price that is the fourth highest in history, with the other three being in what was the last parts of the extreme bidding war period. As I stated in the recent past, this is just the flip side of short sales and bank owned sales artificially dragging down the median, but in that case you could easily measure the effect. Here it would be difficult/impossible to measure.

    The only thing that has gone down in most areas (areas do vary) is the likelihood that you will be able to sell your property for well in excess of FMV.

    BTW, somewhat related topic, I’ve commented in the past on how sales in a condo can make appraisals for a higher value difficult. The appraisers don’t tend to want to budge from prior sales in the same complex (understandable) or make many adjustments, compared to what they’d do if the only comps are in another complex (not understandable). I’ve even seen them go back further than 6 months to use a comp from the same complex during what was a crazy hot market.

    Well, the same thing is starting to happen in some of the newer house neighborhoods where a single builder builds maybe 4-6 models of houses. A sale of a same model house can restrict value more than what you’d see in the past. I even heard of one situation where the appraisal came in almost 5% below the lowest of four offers. I suspect this may be limited to situations where the development is relatively new, and the appraisers assume the condition and quality are somewhat similar. But if you’re selling, being aware of potential appraisal conditions is important.

  17. 517

    By Blurtman @ 508:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 506 – You may want to recalibrate that POV after observing the current president. (And for the record, I campaigned for Bernie and voted for Jill Stein.)

    Not sure why you say that, but if you supported Bernie I think it’s your POV that needs to be adjusted, unless you were campaigning against Hillary. ;-)

    As to Trump, even his tariff actions seemingly haven’t had a huge impact, and that’s an area where a President does have a bit more direct impact on the economy.

    But I do love the coverage of tariffs in the press. They’ve finally discovered a situation where taxes are not somehow automatically and magically just passed on to consumers. Of course that only happens in their view when the tariff is paid by consumers/buyers in other countries. Apparently if it’s a tax imposed on US consumers/buyers we just blindly agree to pay more money!

  18. 518
    Jeff says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 505

    I generally agree with you on your assessment here, which is why I voted for Obama in 08 but wrote in Ron Paul in 12. I have a pretty diverse voting record for a libtard, as I’ve been frequently labeled on some Trump fan club pages on the Zuckerborg, before I finally got fed up and decided Seattle Bubble is much more interesting at this time.

  19. 519
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Jeff @ 511 – Not sure who I’ll vote for in the next presidential election. Probably not Bernie. Free health care for citizens of other countries will just provide a stronger magnet for illegal immigration. And student loan forgiveness is an insult to folks who paid off their loans, parents who saved like bandits to afford their kids’ educations, and an insult to folks who attended community college and worked part time.

  20. 520

    By Blurtman @ 512:

    RE: Jeff @ 511 – Not sure who I’ll vote for in the next presidential election. Probably not Bernie. Free health care for citizens of other countries will just provide a stronger magnet for illegal immigration. And student loan forgiveness is an insult to folks who paid off their loans, parents who saved like bandits to afford their kids’ educations, and an insult to folks who attended community college and worked part time.

    And you forgot to mention the not insignificant group of people who like their employer paid healthcare. Or even if they don’t like it, are they going to want the Democrats to screw up their health care after Democrats totally screwed up the private healthcare market?

    If the Dems want to win they need to go with someone like Tulsi Gabbard or the bigger long-shot Delany. I thought Gabbard was very impressive in the first debate, particularly taking down the war-monger Ryan. The other 18 candidates from the debate will appear nuts to people not living in a big coastal city, and the Democrats already pick up those states.

  21. 521

    To see Tulsi Gabbard rip a hawk a new a-hole during the first debate, start at the 1:13 mark.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QOPBUpLjqA

  22. 522
    David says:

    Considering a LOT of people are unexpectedly ‘retired’ by age 50, all the Buyers who wait and wait and wait to buy a house are going to find they have built in an inability to buy a house ever IMO. Once your career path gets started, you need to get into a house you intend to stay in for 5 years.

    A house is a type of bond and you are the bondholder. Considering it will probably be a 0% return bond (taxes, maintenance and normal historical housing returns of 0%), you at least will be cost neutral in the long run. Inflation is probably about 2.8% every single year COMPOUNDING. Buy a house now, and you will eventually break even.

    Rent a house or apartment, you are in negative equity ALL the time.

    If you are really concerned about your future, stop voting to approve property tax increases. The last tax increase approved steals at least $150,000 out of your pocket on a compounding basis.

  23. 523
    David says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 514:

    To see Tulsi Gabbard rip a hawk a new a-hole during the first debate, start at the 1:13 mark.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QOPBUpLjqA

    Save a lot of time and vote for Trump. EVERY SINGLE Dem is a nutjob who wants to just open up your pocketbook to the World. A new form of slavery – turning native borns into just a working goat.

    Join the military? All you are doing is preserving the Government Worker’s salary and power over US Citizens.

  24. 524

    RE: Deerhawke @ 486

    If the report is good enough to make requests from…it’s good enough to give to a seller. It’s common practice not to do that in whole, but clearly we use excerpts from the report when making a request and we also use photos from the report.

    Why should an agent have to explain the problem without using the tools we are given by the professional inspector? Why can’t we use the report to explain the problem that needs to be fixed?

    What if the buyer has NO agent, is keeping the 3% Buyer Agent Fee and the Agent for the Seller is writing it up and the ONLY agent in the transaction? Is that agent supposed to be at the inspection with the buyer, per mls rules, BUT not give that info to his/her client…the seller?

    Someone didn’t think this through… It’s a bit “Don’t Ask; Don’t Tell” and clearly encouraging more deception on the buyer side than it is preventing on the seller side.

    Would love to find out who came up with the idea to protect sellers like this at the expense of good and valuable info being shared for the benefit of all involved. Bad idea. Very bad idea.

    For the benefit of the readers of this site, I took this up with Kary in facebook message so others didn’t have to see us disagreeing back and forth. Bottom line: He likes it; I don’t. What else is new. Haha!

  25. 525
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 517
    I remember the old battle days when you would go head to head with Kary and I would take jabs at him for fun to get him off his game. I wouldn’t be opposed to one more for old times sake.

  26. 526

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 517:

    Why should an agent have to explain the problem without using the tools we are given by the professional inspector? Why can’t we use the report to explain the problem that needs to be fixed?

    I’m sorry, but that is a false argument. I don’t think I’ve ever found it necessary to quote an inspection report or include a copy of even a page. Agents who quote reports usually don’t accomplish what they think. It’s usually necessary to counter the buyer’s request because the inspection report merely states what is wrong, not what the seller needs to do to fix the problem. It’s poor practice to quote the report.

    The most useful part of an inspection report is often the pictures, and that’s only because it’s sometimes difficult to explain exactly where a condition is located, particularly if it’s in an attic or crawlspace. But if the seller cannot find the location, they can ask for more information. This clause does not prevent that, or prevent the seller from asking for all or part of the report if they want it. It just stops it from being given without request.

    What if the buyer has NO agent, is keeping the 3% Buyer Agent Fee and the Agent for the Seller is writing it up and the ONLY agent in the transaction? Is that agent supposed to be at the inspection with the buyer, per mls rules, BUT not give that info to his/her client…the seller?

    NWMLS rules do not require the agent to be with the inspector, merely to let them in and stay at the property while they are there, then lock up again. A listing agent should probably stay outside the house during an inspection, or at least a good distance away from the inspector. And they should ask the inspector to not discuss items with the buyer in their presence.

    But what happens next is why I try to avoid ever having an unrepresented buyer on the other side, and try to get them to use their own agent. Without an agent guiding them a buyer is unlikely to know how to respond to an inspection report. They may ask for too much, too little or ask for the seller to repair things no buyer should ever want a seller to repair.

    Someone didn’t think this through… It’s a bit “Don’t Ask; Don’t Tell” and clearly encouraging more deception on the buyer side than it is preventing on the seller side.

    Would love to find out who came up with the idea to protect sellers like this at the expense of good and valuable info being shared for the benefit of all involved. Bad idea. Very bad idea.

    It’s not “good information” that is the problem. It’s the bad information that is the problem. If the current deal falls through the seller will have to go through the report in detail and somehow pick out what is a “material defect.” They will then either have to fix that defect, disclose is, or somehow prove the inspector is wrong (which is legally difficult and risky).

    The inspection contingency as it was greatly favors the buyer. They can back out without stating a reason or ask for any condition to be fixed or credited. This just restores some balance, and also allows a seller to recover their very real damages for sending something that never needed to be sent and shouldn’t have been sent.

  27. 527

    This portion of a Legal Hotline answer from last 8/14/19 explains why the change to Form 35 was made:

    “Giving the entire inspection report to a seller/listing broker is a heavy handed negotiation tactic that has developed within the industry. The practice originated with buyer brokers sending the entire report, often full of questionable “conditions” in seller’s home, to create leverage forcing seller to make concessions to buyer so that seller will not have to share the awful report with future buyers. The practice spread so that now it is often undertaken by buyer brokers who simply think that they are supposed to send the entire report. Buyer broker should NEVER send the entire buyer’s inspection report to a seller unless the seller or listing agent requests, in writing, a copy of the entire report.”

    BTW, on the quality of inspectors, I once had an inspector call out an inoperative outlet in a bedroom. It was a switched outlet! Obviously that inspector didn’t have a background as a general contractor. They apparently also didn’t have a background that involved living in a house built after 1960.

  28. 528

    By David @ 516:

    Save a lot of time and vote for Trump. EVERY SINGLE Dem is a nutjob who wants to just open up your pocketbook to the World. A new form of slavery – turning native borns into just a working goat.

    Partisan comments aside, Bill Maher in describing the first debates said something to the effect that it was very clear that the top priority of Democrats was illegal immigrants. They also care somewhat about healthcare, the environment and energy–mainly how those things affect illegal immigrants. :-D

    Then there’s this: https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/28.p1lcf.jpg?quality=90&strip=all

    Seriously, it’s almost as if the Democrats still don’t understand that winning the election for President involves something called the Electoral College. I understand running to the left in Democratic primaries, but they shouldn’t take positions they cannot easily walk back, and they need to be concerned about beating Trump, and that involves picking up swing states. Only about four of the 24 candidates seem to understand that.

  29. 529

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 475:

    Note: Being in breach presumably means a loss of the buyer’s earnest money, and/or damages, if the sale does not close.

    I’m going to walk part of this back. It’s not clear the liquidated damages clause, which results in loss of earnest money, would apply. So it may be a simple claim for damages, and that could exceed the amount of earnest money paid. I’m not seeing that as being good for either the buyer or the seller, but at least from the buyer’s side they can avoid the exposure by simply not sending the inspection report without request.

  30. 530
    Lulu says:

    RE: MD @ 503
    No just housing expensive. people’s wage is way too expensive. We were the 1st city had $15 min wage. I can’t afford to eat out often. I am my own gardener, plumber and auto mechanics. Don’t blame the housing market, the whole things are expensive. But we have the best out door, plenty of jobs and balanced business. Are you saying we could become another Detroit and Cleveland so the house market will be a 40% off?

  31. 531
    BacktoBasics says:

    i am still wonder why we still paying 6% agent fees? This is a information ages. A list of a real estate shouldn’t take 1 hr of pic and web update.

  32. 532
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 507:

    The trends are clear and established . Everything is heading DOWN since last Spring. Median prices are way down. Case-Shiller monthly index has been going down rather quickly from highs and will soon reflect year-over-year declines..

    Median Prices are “way” down?
    Last I checked NWMLS KC median was 700k and the previous high was 726k. That is roughly 3.5% down.

    Prices have increased for the past 4 months, and we’ll see what numbers June brings here in a few days.

    I know you are salivating over 7,000 inventory, but growth this year has been drastically slower than last year. By this point in 2018, inventory had already tripled the 2017 year end number… So I wouldn’t put too much confidence in your “simple extrapolation of the long term trend.”

    If there is one thing Seattle Real Estate should have taught us the past 14 years it is: “Get used to disappointment.”

  33. 533
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 506
    unemployment is low because old baby boomer is leaving the job and enjoy their golden years. There is shortage of labor and situation will get even worse. We would need a lot robot and AI to replace these lost workforce.

  34. 534

    By BacktoBasics @ 526:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 506
    unemployment is low because old baby boomer is leaving the job and enjoy their golden years. There is shortage of labor and situation will get even worse. We would need a lot robot and AI to replace these lost workforce.

    I would agree there’s a lot of outflow out of the labor market. But why haven’t real wages been increasing over the many years now that unemployment has been low? I think they did bump up a bit recently, but not over the entire term of low unemployment, and by not that much. If it was really that tight we’d see labor costs increasing dramatically.

  35. 535

    By uwp @ 525:

    If there is one thing Seattle Real Estate should have taught us the past 14 years it is: “Get used to disappointment.”

    If there’s one thing we learned it’s that data lines don’t run in a straight line, or even only in one direction.

  36. 536
    Lulu says:

    RE: uwp @ 525

    Does home owner really care if the house is up and down. They can’t live on street. Even if they want to sell, comission is stiff and sales tax is a waste. For potential buyers, they might same certain % from last year if they could find an ideal hosue in a desirable location at a reasonable condition. Among these 5000 listing, how many are good deals? I have yet to see.

  37. 537

    Seattle Area Outsourced Its American Engineering to India Very Similar to Microsoft Insourced IT Technical from India to Replace NW American High School Graduates

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/113875538/boeings-737-max-software-outsourced-to-13anhour-engineers

    And look what happened to the Seattle economy’s Boeing MAX 8 and MSFT S/W quality since continuous patches and virus S/W became SOP with India’s H-1Bs.

    Seattle manufacturing and S/W quality is gone

  38. 538
    Lulu says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 527

    Last 10 years of stock bull market and recovery housing market have left Seattle baby boomer a a lot equity to spend on their retirement. they could choose to sell their highly appreciated house in Seattle and move to some sunny and warmer place to enjoy their golden years. Those vacant houses are easily replaced by those young tech workers making $200k per family household. ($200×6 =$1,2mil housing at current mortgage rate).

  39. 539

    By Lulu @ 531:

    Last 10 years of stock bull market and recovery housing market have left Seattle baby boomer a a lot equity to spend on their retirement.

    Yep, retiring in 2018 was a lot better than retiring in 2008. That latter group really had unlucky timing.

  40. 540
    Eastsider says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 527:

    I would agree there’s a lot of outflow out of the labor market. But why haven’t real wages been increasing over the many years now that unemployment has been low? I think they did bump up a bit recently, but not over the entire term of low unemployment, and by not that much. If it was really that tight we’d see labor costs increasing dramatically.

    Construction wages have gone up a lot in the past decade. But the younger generation doesn’t seem to be interested, They would rather work in a lowly paid Starbucks job than a highly paid plumbing/electrical/roofing job.

  41. 541

    By Eastsider @ 533:

    Construction wages have gone up a lot in the past decade. But the younger generation doesn’t seem to be interested, They would rather work in a lowly paid Starbucks job than a highly paid plumbing/electrical/roofing job.

    Or be a taxi driver (Uber) or servant (Instacart). IMHO, that those companies can find people is further proof that the economy isn’t as good as indicated. Who grows up dreaming that doing those things is what they want to do when they grow up?

  42. 542
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 534
    Construction labor cost in Seattle has increase quite a lot. While land price is also increased. I see many tear down lot now with two three level SFH (no back and front yard). Seattle self-storage business is booming. People have to live in small space and store their belongings in these U-haul self storage.

  43. 543
    sfrz says:

    Lake Forest Park getting schmammered. Detailed breakdown within the article. “Cities throughout the Seattle metro area have been adversely affected, some more seriously than the city of Seattle. For example, the bedroom community of Lake Forest Park north of Seattle has seen home values drop by 5.3% over the last year, and are expected to fall by another 3.9% in the coming year. Shoreline, another Seattle suburb, has seen home values decline by 5.1% year-over-year, and its projected future decline — 4.4% — is steeper than both Lake Forest Park and Seattle.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2019/06/30/housing-slowdown-cities/#417efebf4e2f San Jose is also taking a BIG hit.

  44. 544
    Justme says:

    Rents are dropping in Seattle, according to data collected by Zumper. No hurry to buy, keep striking or join the strike :).

    QUOTE: In Seattle, where rents had been soaring for years, the median one-bedroom apartment asking rent in June fell 7% from the peak a year ago, to $1,850. The median asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment fell 5% from a year ago to $2,400, and is down 9.4% from the peak in April 2016. Clearly, the phenomenal apartment and condo construction boom over the past few years is having an impact.

    More at https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/01/here-come-the-rent-declines-but-some-cities-are-still-hot/

  45. 545
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 525
    All the wealthy people on here think Seattle real estate prices are going up. All the poor people on this site looking to own a house in Seattle think Seattle real estate prices are going down. That’s pretty telling to me.

  46. 546
    Jeff says:

    RE: Erik @ 538

    Erik, I’d like to know how you determine who on here is wealthy and who is poor. You seem to put a lot of time and effort into that. Your economic forecasting model is another nice piece of contrary market data as near as I can tell.

  47. 547
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Jeff @ 539

    Pay attention to what Erik does and not what he says. He sold. That’s pretty telling to me.

  48. 548

    By Justme @ 537:

    Rents are dropping in Seattle, according to data collected by Zumper. No hurry to buy, keep striking or join the strike :).

    QUOTE: In Seattle, where rents had been soaring for years, the median one-bedroom apartment asking rent in June fell 7% from the peak a year ago, to $1,850. The median asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment fell 5% from a year ago to $2,400, and is down 9.4% from the peak in April 2016. Clearly, the phenomenal apartment and condo construction boom over the past few years is having an impact.

    More at https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/01/here-come-the-rent-declines-but-some-cities-are-still-hot/

    Just more proof real estate taxes are not automatically passed on to renters. RE taxes were rising during this period. Rents fell.

  49. 549
    biliruben says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 540:

    By Justme @ 537:

    Rents are dropping in Seattle, according to data collected by Zumper. No hurry to buy, keep striking or join the strike :).

    QUOTE: In Seattle, where rents had been soaring for years, the median one-bedroom apartment asking rent in June fell 7% from the peak a year ago, to $1,850. The median asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment fell 5% from a year ago to $2,400, and is down 9.4% from the peak in April 2016. Clearly, the phenomenal apartment and condo construction boom over the past few years is having an impact.

    More at https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/01/here-come-the-rent-declines-but-some-cities-are-still-hot/

    Just more proof real estate taxes are not automatically passed on to renters. RE taxes were rising during this period. Rents fell.

    Uh… That’s not any sort of “proof:. The taxes could easily have been passed on, and if they had not, rents simply would have fallen more. P=previous average rent. D=drop in rent due to market forces. T= Rise in rent due to taxes being passed on to renters.

    Current rent = C = P – D + T. C could still be less than P, even with T being non-zero.

  50. 550

    By Erik @ 538:

    RE: uwp @ 525
    All the wealthy people on here think Seattle real estate prices are going up. All the poor people on this site looking to own a house in Seattle think Seattle real estate prices are going down. That’s pretty telling to me.

    By Jeff @ 539:

    RE: Erik @ 538

    Erik, I’d like to know how you determine who on here is wealthy and who is poor.

    There was a significant difference of opinion between the wealthy less wealthy back in 2007, and then again in 2008. In 2007 the less wealthy were more likely to believe the BS press reports about what was happening in the lending market (believe certain loan types had disappeared when they had not). In 2008 the wealthy were more affected by the stock market than the less wealthy.

    The point is, there can be different outlooks in different wealth classes, but I don’t know that it is “telling” because it may be telling you different things at different times.

    But as to what occurred, it’s also just a matter of how much work you put into it. People who just look at the raw data tend to be about as well informed as people who only read a headline. To be really informed you need to not only read the headline and article, you need to do additional research. A rising (falling) median is only evidence of rising (falling) values–it can go up (down) for other reasons. A rising median isn’t even evidence of a healthy market. Our market was not healthy the past 2-3 years due to restrained inventory, but the median rose significantly due to that unhealthy inventory condition.

    And finally, none of this data tells us what the market will be like in six months.

  51. 551

    By biliruben @ 541:

    Uh… That’s not any sort of “proof:. The taxes could easily have been passed on, and if they had not, rents simply would have fallen more. P=previous average rent. D=drop in rent due to market forces. T= Rise in rent due to taxes being passed on to renters.

    Current rent = C = P – D + T. C could still be less than P, even with T being non-zero.

    Well it’s what actually happened. Real estate taxes increased but rents declined.

    But as to rents possibly having gone down more without a tax increase, why would landlords seek less rent when they were actually able to get more rent? That makes zero sense. Do you think landlords lower their rents if they refinance to a lower interest rate? The world does not work that way. Landlords charge as much rent as they can in a given market, and what tenants are willing to pay is in no way affected by how much landlords pay in taxes and insurance.

    This, BTW, is why I said above you need to read the headline, the article and do additional research. On this topic the press doesn’t have a clue. They think taxes automatically get passed on (unless it’s a tariff imposed by Trump, which they think foreign consumers refuse to pay, while they simultaneously think foreign tariffs just get accepted by US consumers.)

  52. 552
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 542 – I hate to get into argument with Kary but he is wrong. Using gas tax as an example, an oversupply in the oil market will result in lower gas prices. But we will never go back to $.99/gallon gas. Similarly, higher property taxes will put a (higher) floor on rents when there is an oversupply in apartments.

  53. 553

    By Eastsider @ 543:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 542 – I hate to get into argument with Kary but he is wrong. Using gas tax as an example, an oversupply in the oil market will result in lower gas prices. But we will never go back to $.99/gallon gas. Similarly, higher property taxes will put a (higher) floor on rents when there is an oversupply in apartments.

    Only if the higher taxes result in apartments being taken off the market (or over the very long term fewer units being built.) Other than that the higher taxes will not reduce the supply of apartments (or the demand either) and thus won’t affect the rental prices. Price is set by supply and demand, not cost. Cost only comes into play when the cost to produce is higher than the expected price of sale, in which case the item will not be produced (reducing the supply) But with apartments they are already in existence. Higher landlord costs do not reduce the supply over the short or medium term.

    Note I am not addressing the rental of SFR houses. There you might get a few owners whose PITI is greater than the rent they can obtain, so that house might end up once again owner occupied. That would be a small number of houses, and have a slight impact on rents upward.

    And as to the gas tax, you’re looking at the wrong end of the price spectrum. It’s when gas is in short supply that taxes don’t add to the price. The price is set at the amount needed to keep from running out of gas (and a price well over cost). If you reduce the gas tax the price will drop only for a very short period, and then it will rise again to the same price needed to keep from running out of gas. The producers/refiners/retailers will just get additional profit.

  54. 554
    biliruben says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 544:

    By Eastsider @ 543:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 542 – I hate to get into argument with Kary but he is wrong. Using gas tax as an example, an oversupply in the oil market will result in lower gas prices. But we will never go back to $.99/gallon gas. Similarly, higher property taxes will put a (higher) floor on rents when there is an oversupply in apartments.

    Only if the higher taxes result in apartments being taken off the market (or over the very long term fewer units being built.) Other than that the higher taxes will not reduce the supply of apartments (or the demand either) and thus won’t affect the rental prices. Price is set by supply and demand, not cost. Cost only comes into play when the cost to produce is higher than the expected price of sale, in which case the item will not be produced (reducing the supply) But with apartments they are already in existence. Higher landlord costs do not reduce the supply over the short or medium term.

    Note I am not addressing the rental of SFR houses. There you might get a few owners whose PITI is greater than the rent they can obtain, so that house might end up once again owner occupied. That would be a small number of houses, and have a slight impact on rents upward.

    And as to the gas tax, you’re looking at the wrong end of the price spectrum. It’s when gas is in short supply that taxes don’t add to the price. The price is set at the amount needed to keep from running out of gas (and a price well over cost). If you reduce the gas tax the price will drop only for a very short period, and then it will rise again to the same price needed to keep from running out of gas. The producers/refiners/retailers will just get additional profit.

    Increase taxes will effect all the landlords, relatively evenly, and those taxes (or perhaps a portion of those taxes) will be passed on to the supply of all units available to renters, impacting the market forces that determine the going-rate for rents. So absent taxes, the market would be offering lower rents than without that tax surcharge, spread evenly across the available supply of units.

  55. 555
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 542

    rent decrease? actually it is every year. landlord now separate parking from rent. You want a space for parking, pay extra. Want to use common area for party, pay the fee. garbage fee is separate. your one-bed $1800 could be $2000, two-bed $2400 could be $2600. for $2600 rent, I could buy a house 2600×12/0.04=$780,000. Happy renting!

  56. 556
    N says:

    BacktoBasics 546 – trying to follow your math – $780k home for only $2,600? Are you missing the taxes ($500+ a month), Insurance and Principle ($1,000+ a month). Total around $4k/month before maintenance and upkeep.

    I can’t even get a $550k loan to pencil into a $2,600/month payment.

  57. 557
  58. 558
    Benjamin says:

    Kary, are you an agent?

  59. 559

    By biliruben @ 554:

    Increase taxes will effect all the landlords, relatively evenly, and those taxes (or perhaps a portion of those taxes) will be passed on to the supply of all units available to renters, impacting the market forces that determine the going-rate for rents. So absent taxes, the market would be offering lower rents than without that tax surcharge, spread evenly across the available supply of units.

    Just saying something will occur doesn’t make it so. If something doesn’t affect supply or demand it won’t affect price. Except for possibly some SFR rental units that get converted to owner occupied, the supply of rentals is not going to go down with an increase in taxes.

    Let’s look at another tax–aluminum and steel tariffs. Ford was claiming that those were costing them something like $1B in profits. Given that most vehicles are manufactured in the US, those tariffs impacted most auto makers similarly, but Ford apparently believes it can’t pass along the tariffs. On the other hand, US producers of steel and aluminum likely raised their prices without any increase in taxes, because a lot of their competitors were slapped with tariffs. Since steel and aluminum are items produced, the tariffs do impact the supply curve. And will these tariffs affect how much steel and aluminum is sold? To some extent, but mainly not. The cost of aluminum and steel is not that large of a component of most products, and for the biggest product (airplanes), Boeing is going to have to pretty much buy the same amount of aluminum as before to fulfill their contracts. So unless those contracts have clauses adjusting price due to the market price of aluminum (which some may), they will not be able to charge anything more, so the airlines won’t pay more. But if they did pay more, the ultimate consumer, airline passengers, will only pay more over the very long term if the tariffs stay in place, airplane prices rise (unlikely if Airbus isn’t impacted too) and airlines buy fewer planes than they would have otherwise.

  60. 560

    By Benjamin @ 558:

    Kary, are you an agent?

    Yes–my name on each post has a link.

  61. 561
    S-Crow says:

    From the escrow trenches regarding problems with Title Commitments/Reports that are rearing it’s head today from vintage 2005-2008 Bubble years:

    A Reconveyance (or Satisfaction of Mortgage) is where a lender records a document in the County were the property resides that a loan has been either paid off or Satisfied. In the escrow world it’s known as a Satisfaction or Reconveyance. There were Satisfactions or Reconveyances even completed where a loan was not paid off after things really blew up after 2008, but the lender did it anyway for various reasons. (Stuff that I see but the general public wouldn’t necessarily know what’s going on.)

    Today, with low rates comes refinancing. Some transactions I’m working on have clouds on Title because the property being sold or refinanced have had loans on them from vintage bubble years of 2005-2008 or older. These loans were from since defunct lenders and servicers that no longer exist. The clouds showing today are old loans on Title that have since been paid off but were never reconveyed or reconveyed properly. How can a Reconveyance not be completed or completed properly?

    1) They were never done at all (with the bubble mess and subsequent changes of servicers on a subject loan)
    2) The Reconveyance/satisfaction is mis-recorded. (property is in King County but recorded in Snohomish County)
    3) The Reconveyance mis-references a Deed of Trust recording numbers or references a completely different document.
    4) The County mis-indexes the Recon so it is effectively invisible without really hard and time consuming work to find it.

    I know this is not your generic homeowners world but still, I cannot emphasize how important it is for a homeowner to CHECK that a Satisfaction or Reconveyance has been completed or completed PROPERLY when you know the loan was paid off. Waiting 10 + years for this cloud to appear on Title when you sell is when I come in to play and say we have a problem.

    And, Agent’s:

    It is unforgivable for you to have taken out Preliminary Title on a subject property with an existing old loan showing on title from those years or earlier AND do nothing about it at all before you have a sale in hand. In fact, ask your seller about loans on the report from ANY YEAR and ask if they are still active. Title and Escrow staff cannot stand listening to the snarky remark “who dropped the ball on this? ” when you’ve had the Title report in hand for WEEKS before you had an offer come in. Don’t wait for me to respond that the person “who dropped the ball” is the very agent implying it’s somehow Escrow’s fault for delaying the transaction when we receive the Title Report after escrow is opened. Of course the very person who dropped the ball is the recipient of my signature on the Commission Check for their listing side of the sale commission to the tune of $37,000.00. It makes you look like a fool. Now you have a dead deal until this can be resolved or Title Insurance allows the cloud to be insured around. Resolving this can take a couple of weeks or a month or it comes down to the Title Insurance company making a call on it.

  62. 562
    Benjamin says:

    Your position makes more sense now. As everyone in this thread should already know, never look to an agent to provide market insights. A hot market is in the agents best interest because selling and buying is made easier. When the market cools, it’s bad for many agents. Also note what credentials are required to be an agent. I don’t believe even a HS diploma is required. Many of the agents I’ve worked with, it’s as though they dropped out and had a choice between retail or being a real-estate agent. Many chose housing.

  63. 563

    By S-Crow @ 561:

    How can a Reconveyance not be completed or completed properly?

    1) They were never done at all (with the bubble mess and subsequent changes of servicers on a subject loan)
    2) The Reconveyance/satisfaction is mis-recorded. (property is in King County but recorded in Snohomish County)
    3) The Reconveyance mis-references a Deed of Trust recording numbers or references a completely different document.
    4) The County mis-indexes the Recon so it is effectively invisible without really hard and time consuming work to find it.

    And sometimes it’s the fault of the escrow from the prior transaction, particularly if the transaction was a refinance.

    I came across a potential issue like this last month–where it was mis-indexed or maybe mis-referenced by the reconveyance. The title report though did pick it up (or actually not list the paid off DOT).

    And, Agent’s:

    It is unforgivable for you to have taken out Preliminary Title on a subject property with an existing old loan showing on title from those years or earlier AND do nothing about it at all before you have a sale in hand. In fact, ask your seller about loans on the report from ANY YEAR and ask if they are still active. Title and Escrow staff cannot stand listening to the snarky remark “who dropped the ball on this? ” when you’ve had the Title report in hand for WEEKS before you had an offer come in. Don’t wait for me to respond that the person “who dropped the ball” is the very agent implying it’s somehow Escrow’s fault for delaying the transaction when we receive the Title Report after escrow is opened. Of course the very person who dropped the ball is the recipient of my signature on the Commission Check for their listing side of the sale commission to the tune of $37,000.00. It makes you look like a fool. Now you have a dead deal until this can be resolved or Title Insurance allows the cloud to be insured around. Resolving this can take a couple of weeks or a month or it comes down to the Title Insurance company making a call on it.

    I would estimate that over 50% of all agents don’t know how to read a title report. A story I have told before, the agent got a preliminary commitment and didn’t do anything when supplemental after supplemental was coming in reporting new judgments, any one of which was big enough to turn the transaction into a short sale.

    But some agents will even list a property without getting a preliminary commitment first. That’s really sloppy (unless maybe they try to rely on their own searches, which depending on the owner name might be adequate).

  64. 564

    By Benjamin @ 562:

    Your position makes more sense now. As everyone in this thread should already know, never look to an agent to provide market insights. A hot market is in the agents best interest because selling and buying is made easier. When the market cools, it’s bad for many agents. Also note what credentials are required to be an agent. I don’t believe even a HS diploma is required. Many of the agents I’ve worked with, it’s as though they dropped out and had a choice between retail or being a real-estate agent. Many chose housing.

    You rather obviously know nothing about me. I never make predictions about where the market is headed, but I will provide insight into what the numbers for prior months mean. Currently to just look at the median YOY change is extremely naive (and/or lazy) when the prior year was still dealing with some bidding war situations. Unfortunately in this instance it’s difficult if not impossible to quantify that effect because you cannot easily screen out transactions that sold for well over list (and a few transactions sold for well over list due to being underpriced).

    Also, FWIW, I have a degree in accounting and a J.D., both from the UW, and I have 40 credit hours of economics, which is why I have an understanding of why taxes are not just automatically passed through to a buyer.

  65. 565

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 564:

    Currently to just look at the median YOY change is extremely naive (and/or lazy) when the prior year was still dealing with some bidding war situations. Unfortunately in this instance it’s difficult if not impossible to quantify that effect because you cannot easily screen out transactions that sold for well over list (and a few transactions sold for well over list due to being underpriced).

    FWIW, last June the median sold in King County was about $19,000 over the median list price. This year it’s almost exactly even. That’s a shortcut that is not necessarily 100% accurate (especially compared to back when I was backing out short sales and REOs), but it does give some idea of the impact of bidding wars.

    Also, FWIW, this month it appears the median and sales will be almost exactly equal with last June, but those numbers are both impacted by late reported sales from May. Last year the median dropped from May to June.

    And finally, currently the active King County SFR listings are lower than the end of the month last month (May). Drawing that trend line out into the future, in two years there won’t be any houses for sale! ;-)

  66. 566
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 509

    >>Inventory of 6,000 looks in the bag. Maybe 7,000 is the new stretch goal for 2019.

    I’m a bit late commenting on this, but I would like to say that 6-7000 is possible, 5000 is plenty good. We don’t really need any stretch goals for the inventory. 5000 before end of 2019 will be just fine to keep prices on the downward path. The King County SFH absorption rate is below 50% as it is.

  67. 567
    Erik says:

    RE: ohd1122 @ 547
    After I sold, I just bought too and rented out the Seattle condo I was living in. I am looking for another investment and I wont hesitate to pull the trigger when I find what I’m looking for. I love condos because they are so easy to fix and rent, but I’m scared of all the inventory on the horizon.

    I sold a nice condo that is prone to special assessments that I remodeled years ago. I like rentals with low maintenance costs, Now is a great time to buy a house in king County.

  68. 568
    David says:

    RE: Justme @ 566 – The SNAPBACK is going to be brutal to the “Never-Buyers”.

  69. 569
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 565

    >>And finally, currently the active King County SFR listings are lower than the end of the month last month (May).

    Inventory right now is NOT lower than end-May.

    Two things: I noted earlier that the end-May KC/SFH inventory number was as LOT higher than the numbers one could find from other sources, and these other sources were in the same ballpark. I think NWMLS messed up their database query/calculation for the end-month data release when they came up with the 4511 May31 SFH number that can be found in KCBreakouts.2019-06-07.pdf. The real end-May number was probably 4140, as redfin says. Second, right this moment the SFH count per redfin is 4512.

    Look at my weekly graphs. They are much more informative than these end-month samples that NWMLS publishes.

    All data sources have occasional errors. On May 31, it was NWMLS that got the numbers wrong,.

  70. 570
    Benjamin says:

    Kary, a market insight does not map directly to future trends. It simply means any deep understanding of a market situation historical, present or future. I don’t think many in this thread are looking at one single item and drawing a conclusion from that (YOY as you share).

  71. 571

    By Justme @ 569:

    Inventory right now is NOT lower than end-May.

    Per Tim above and the NWMLS it was 4,511. I wasn’t following last month, so I don’t know if they messed that up, but I doubt it.

    Currently it is 4,461.

    But my math is off. If you draw a straight line it will be 100 months before we’re down to zero listings. ;-)

    Oh, and for this post and the one you responded to: Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  72. 572
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 570

    >>Per Tim above and the NWMLS it was 4,511.

    4512 was straight from the redfin website in real time :-). Nice to see that NWMLS and redfin are back in agreement.

    >>Oh, and for this post and the one you responded to: Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

    LOL, NWMLS should apply that disclaimer also to their own official monthly data releases. They messed up badly last month.

  73. 573

    By Justme @ 571:

    LOL, NWMLS should apply that disclaimer also to their official monthly data releases. They messed up badly last month.

    I checked Trendgraphics, and they had the same 4511 for the end of May. Based on the detail and options they provide I’m pretty sure they pull their data straight from the NWMLS and not from the reporting of the NWMLS.

  74. 574
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 566:

    I’m a bit late commenting on this, but I would like to say that 6-7000 is possible, 5000 is plenty good. We don’t really need any stretch goals for the inventory. 5000 before end of 2019 will be just fine to keep prices on the downward path. The King County SFH absorption rate is below 50% as it is.

    Just for fun,

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absorption-rate.asp

    ” Traditionally, an absorption rate above 20% has signaled a seller’s market in which homes are sold quickly. An absorption rate below 15% is an indicator of a buyer’s market”

    Downward path? Not these last 4 months.

  75. 575

    RE: Erik @ 567

    I have my eye on one in Kary’s neighborhood. Could be a screaming deal, but the downside is it’s so close to Kary’s house that he may come over and check that you’re doing everything right. He’s probably on the HOA Board. :)

  76. 576

    RE: S-Crow @ 561

    I had one of those awhile back. A bit more complicated. I was the Agent for the Buyer. When I looked at Title I contacted the listing Agent who said the old lien was “satisfied”. I told her if that were true…it wouldn’t be on the Title Report.

    Long story short…the owner did a loan mod and was told she didn’t have to make any payments on the 2nd. So the owner thought it was “gone” and told her agent that. BUT since it was not paid, but rather the owner was just told she didn’t have to make any payments…the lien was still sitting there.

    I worked it through…took a few months as I recall, had to get a Quiet Title Action signed off by a Judge after a few steps before that and then wait out the 30 day appeal time after the Judge signed off on it.

    It got very, very messy and it’s hard to hold things together for that long and through Court proceedings, but the buyer wanted the place and so we persevered.

    Old liens from back in 2008 or so can definitely rear their ugly heads even now…and the older they are, the harder they are to get rid of as the defunct lender sold the debt in a bundle. Good luck getting anyone to respond. So Quiet Title Action was the only recourse.

  77. 577
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 575 – Last time I ran into something like this a Sovereign Citizen had squatted in a mansion. Filed paperwork into the County.

    Eventually the bank sold the property and the owner discovered a pissed off Sovereign Citizen – who was eventually arrested. SC was thoroughly convinced his criminal attorney should defend against the bank taking back the property as a way of proving his innocence. Clever. Didn’t work.

  78. 578
    Sam says:

    Came across an excerpt on a Barron’s article cautioning against buying something expensive because lower rates are making it affordable.
    Thought I’d share it here: https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-interest-rates-fed-put-myth-51561683497?mod=past_editions
    That’s called stimulus, but don’t get too excited. Bringing down rates from, say, double digits to mid-single digits can turn a good deal into a better one. But if you’re thinking about buying something big right now and you can’t make the numbers work with sub-4% interest, whether taking out a mortgage or issuing corporate bonds, it’s a lousy deal. I’m guessing the price is too high. Walk away. If rates fall by a half-point, stay away. What you want is a much lower price, not slightly cheaper financing.

    I am also copy-pasting the entire article as not sure if paywall will block it for non-subscribers here — it’s a really good read, even though it may lean more towards bears on this blog

    The ‘Fed Put’ Is Kaput and Interest Rate Cuts Might Hurt Stocks

    The stock market is caught between a myth and a menace, and that could make for a sticky July. I recommend moderate bellyaching to anyone who will listen, but not selling.

    The myth is called the “Fed put.” Investors have long believed that the Federal Reserve has the power to soothe stock market ailments by reducing interest rates. Some even think that, although the market did well during the first half of this year, a July cut is sure to keep the rally going.

    Neither is true, and here’s the pickle: Futures markets are now pricing in a near certainty of a July rate cut. If investors don’t get one, they are likely to huff and sell stocks. If they do get one, it is unlikely to help and might even hurt, setting off a tantrum just the same.

    It’s enough to give a central banker Irritable Powell Syndrome—although rate-cut dyspepsia was documented long before Jerome Powell took the top job at the Fed.

    From 1984 to 1998, the Fed entered into rate-cutting cycles five times, and the stock market jumped each time. Returns over the following year ranged from 14% to 23%, according to data from Goldman Sachs. On Wall Street, if something happens twice, it’s an investible trend. Five times and it’s a law of finance.

    Four of those cutting cycles were presided over by Alan Greenspan, starting with one that snapped stocks back quickly from a crash in 1987. That’s why the Fed put used to be called the Greenspan put.

    In hindsight, Greenspan was a bit like a plumber who fixed clogs but left geysers. He presided over a massive dot-com stock bust in 2000, and left in 2006 just before U.S. stocks fell by half, and house prices by a third, nearly taking down the world’s banking system. But the highs keep getting higher, so it’s tempting to view the Fed put as almighty.

    Careful there. So far this millennium, the Fed put has looked like a Fed pile-on. After the start of rate cuts in 2001, the stock market lost 12% in a year. The next cut cycle, which began in 2007, saw stocks shed 18% in a year. Measured from the first cut to the stock market hitting bottom, investors during these episodes lost 41% and 54%, respectively.

    What changed? For one thing, the last two downturns were doozies. For example, the $180 billion bailout of insurer American International Group in 2008 made a 1998 recapitalization of Long-Term Capital Management for $3.6 billion look like a Kiwanis raffle. No wonder the 1998 Fed put worked a treat.

    Read our recent cover story: Interest Rates Around the World Are Coming Down. What Investors Need to Know.

    More relevant now is that the starting point for cuts has been drifting lower. Among the past seven cycles, the first three started at an average federal-funds rate of more than 9.5%. The next three started from an average of 6%. The latest, just 5.25%. And if we get a cut in July, it will subtract from a range of just 2.25% to 2.5%.

    That’s called stimulus, but don’t get too excited. Bringing down rates from, say, double digits to mid-single digits can turn a good deal into a better one. But if you’re thinking about buying something big right now and you can’t make the numbers work with sub-4% interest, whether taking out a mortgage or issuing corporate bonds, it’s a lousy deal. I’m guessing the price is too high. Walk away. If rates fall by a half-point, stay away. What you want is a much lower price, not slightly cheaper financing.

    So why not bail out of stocks? For one thing, I’m terrible at predicting short-term market moves. Not reliably terrible, or I would at least be useful as a contrarian indicator. More like, well—at The Little Longhorn Saloon in Austin, Texas, they play a kind of Bingo on Sundays where a chicken determines the winners by where it does its business. The game is commonly referred to with a matter-of-fact name that starts with “chicken,” ends with “bingo,” and passes through a word I can’t print here. It’s a good metaphor for my short-term market forecasting ability.

    Over the long term, I’m much better than the chicken. I always guess up.

    Golub expects a slight gain for stocks over the rest of the year on moderate earnings growth, offset by that P/E trim. Morgan Stanley predicts a half-point cut in July, but if economic data worsen in the third quarter, also a 10% stock correction. Barclays Capital is watching trade, and sees a 45% chance of tariff escalation, which would send stocks down 7%; a 35% chance of a truce, sending stocks up 10%; and a 20% chance of a recession, with a 20% stock plunge. Meanwhile, I’m only three-quarters sure I’m running low on half & half.

    The stock market’s valuation looks stretched but not silly. The S&P 500 index, up 16% this year, recently traded at 16.7 times forward earnings estimates. One thing that has my attention is Bitcoin. When it was around $5,000 in April, I wrote here about a “glut of cash chasing scarce growth at a time of low rates. And that foretells go-go gains for goofy assets. Bitcoin will be the bellwether.” It recently changed hands at $12,000.

    More predictable than stocks or make-believe money, however, is that the Fed is going to need something more creative than rate cuts when the next severe downturn hits. Forget cash for clunkers. We’re talking 50 shades of stimulus.

  79. 579

    By Sam @ 577:

    Forget cash for clunkers. We’re talking 50 shades of stimulus.

    With a name like that, at least they won’t need a plot. ;-)

    I haven’t been following this forum over the past several months, but has anyone raised the argument that the Trump tax cuts were intended to be stimulus to delay the next downturn. It wasn’t at the time, but it is now apparently the longest period of rising activity in the economy in modern history. That should make policy makers and people running in 2020 nervous, particularly given what happened in 2008.

  80. 580

    RE: David @ 576

    The only one I remember like that was “Squatter Mom” in the Kirkland McMansion back in 2010.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/squatter-mom-sets-home-32-million-mansion-seattle/story?id=10932610

    I thought she was in the house a lot longer than that article shows. It was kind of funny. I can see one Mom losing it…but how did she get the kids and ex-husband to play crazy time with her?

  81. 581

    RE: Sam @ 577 – Hey, I just found this–you have nothing to worry about. The stock market apparently should be 5% higher! ;-)

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/02/investing/sp-500-trade-war-bank-of-america/index.html

  82. 582
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 574
    I like screaming deals, but living next to Kary makes me uneasy. I can see it already with Kary standing over me quoting scripture from the International Builders Code(IBC). “Are those screws regulation? According to chapter 12 article 5 paragraph 2, all screws must be course thread and you are using fine thread.”

  83. 583

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 574:

    RE: Erik @ 567

    I have my eye on one in Kary’s neighborhood. Could be a screaming deal, but the downside is it’s so close to Kary’s house that he may come over and check that you’re doing everything right. He’s probably on the HOA Board. :)

    Troll much?

    Also, there are no screaming deals in my neighborhood right now. So you’re apparently making up facts to troll.

  84. 584
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 583

    It’s not on market Kary.

  85. 585
    TheBenBernank says:

    10 year Treasury yield broke 2 percent today.

  86. 586
    formerSeattleite says:

    The news is saying Amazon is going to build a new skyscraper in downtown Bellevue to house ‘thousands’ of new employees. Real estate impact?

  87. 587
    Lulu says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 586RE: formerSeattleite @ 586RE: formerSeattleite @ 586RE: formerSeattleite @ 586
    Those Amazon will most buying on the east side or along the transit line knowing how consuming to cross the lake Washington. Overall, this a good news for the region and real estate market.

  88. 588

    By formerSeattleite @ 586:

    The news is saying Amazon is going to build a new skyscraper in downtown Bellevue to house ‘thousands’ of new employees. Real estate impact?

    Maybe little or none, other than perhaps increasing east side prices at the expense of Seattle prices. If Amazon has leased space ending about the time this building will be completed, then the net effect to the area might be nil. But if this indicates additional hiring, then it would have a positive impact on prices.

    But that does raise (again) the issue of HQ2 on local prices. It very well could have been that some Amazon employees were holding off purchase decisions to see the options of moving to another city, perhaps one they grew up near, or would rather live in than Seattle. Now that uncertainty is gone, unless they do like the places Amazon is expanding.

  89. 589

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 565:

    FWIW, last June the median sold in King County was about $19,000 over the median list price. This year it’s almost exactly even. That’s a shortcut that is not necessarily 100% accurate (especially compared to back when I was backing out short sales and REOs), but it does give some idea of the impact of bidding wars.

    Also, FWIW, this month it appears the median and sales will be almost exactly equal with last June, but those numbers are both impacted by late reported sales from May. Last year the median dropped from May to June.

    And finally, currently the active King County SFR listings are lower than the end of the month last month (May). Drawing that trend line out into the future, in two years there won’t be any houses for sale! ;-)

    Here’s another interesting comparison between June 2018 and 2019. In 2018 the median CDOM was 7 days, while this year it was apparently 9 days. The mean CDOM however went up by 10 days, to 28 days. That 50% of the listings sell within 9 days is really pretty good for sellers. But that two day increase is also good for buyers–it shows less buying pressure and allows them to act a little less rushed.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  90. 590
    Lulu says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 588
    Apple is renting in Seattle for another 2000 positions. So east west are equally growing,

  91. 591
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Sam @ 578RE: TheBenBernank @ 585 – The bigger news that nobody talks about is the historic low Germany 10 Year Government Bond at near -0.4%. This is clearly deflationary. Asset prices will likely follow…

  92. 592

    By Lulu @ 590:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 588
    Apple is renting in Seattle for another 2000 positions. So east west are equally growing,

    Well that is clearly job growth, the Amazon thing is not so clear.

  93. 593

    By Eastsider @ 591:

    RE: Sam @ 578RE: TheBenBernank @ 585 – The bigger news that nobody talks about is the historic low Germany 10 Year Government Bond at near -0.4%. This is clearly deflationary. Asset prices will likely follow…

    Germany is 18 months ahead of us.

    (Inside joke for the old-timers here.)

  94. 594
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 586

    It seems clear that Bellevue is becoming Amazon’s next HQ 2, taking the place of NYC. All of Amazon’s announcements about expanding into Bellevue laud the city’s “positive business climate”—flipping the bird to the Seattle City Council and local development boards in NYC at the same time. New York’s loss is the Puget Sound area’s gain.

  95. 595
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 592
    Hey Kary, can you buy a house as an investment in your neighborhood and rent it out? Does the HOA put up any restrictions?

  96. 596
    Justme says:

    RE: Lulu @ 590

    Only 200 this year, 2000 is in 5 years.

  97. 597

    By Erik @ 595:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 592
    Hey Kary, can you buy a house as an investment in your neighborhood and rent it out? Does the HOA put up any restrictions?

    http://fairwoodgreens.org/rulesandregulations.php

  98. 598
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 597
    Thank you Kary!

  99. 599
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 589

    >>Here’s another interesting comparison between June 2018 and 2019. In 2018 the median CDOM was 7 days, while this year it was apparently 9 days. The mean CDOM however went up by 10 days, to 28 days.

    Wait a minute, Kary. You really need to define your stats more carefully. The Cumulative Days On Market (CDOM) you quote is maybe only among the subset of listings that have gone pending (or sold?), and not across all listings. Yes or no? I think YES is the correct answer.

    >>That 50% of the listings sell within 9 days is really pretty good for sellers.

    If 9 is the Cumulative DOM for the pendings (or solds), then that does NOT mean that 50% of all listings pended (or sold) within 9 days!!! It means that AMONG those that DID pend or sell, 50% did within 9 CDOM. That is not the same thing as what you claim.

    My claim: The statement “50% of the listings sell within 9 days” is massively wrong.

    A possibly true statement: “Of the listings that have gone pending, 50% of them did within 9 days”. BUT that statistic says nothing about all the listings that did not go pending and are languishing on the market for weeks and months. Inventory keeps increasing because there are lots of listings that do not go pending, and more listings are added than goes pending.

    One can see why NWMLS demands that agents post a disclaimer when referring to self-compiled NWMLS data. Agents often make up or mis-characterize stats so that the stats have nothing to do with reality, but use MLS to lend credence to the claims made. That’s why MLS demands the disclaimer. Kary’s post is a case in point, IMO.

  100. 600
    Justme says:

    Get ready for a hailstorm of hairsplitting and misdirection from Kary.

  101. 601
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 600

    Kary, see what you missed?

  102. 602
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 599

    That’s an interesting comment. How do you count the sellers that leave the market because they are disappointed that they are not going to get their asking price or more? The cancelled listings?

  103. 603
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 580 – From my experience with these Sovereign Citizens, the whole family is often in on the schemes, They have an amazing vocabulary of words that mean something totally different to them than it would me (or anyone).

    Even scarier, if you listen and start to think about what they say – some of it makes sense. Esp the part about the Government leveraging each citizen’s ‘value.’ By hyperbole, if there was only one US Citizen, no country would by $Trillions in US debt.

  104. 604
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 591:

    RE: Sam @ 578RE: TheBenBernank @ 585 – The bigger news that nobody talks about is the historic low Germany 10 Year Government Bond at near -0.4%. This is clearly deflationary. Asset prices will likely follow…

    “Europe has seen markedly lower GDP growth relative to that of the U.S. in recent years.”

    Trump says: “You’re welcome.”

  105. 605
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: David @ 603

    Mine was a plain old American blonde girl. Hard working single Mom. You really have to kick that stereotyping habit.

  106. 606

    By Justme @ 599:

    If 9 is the Cumulative DOM for the pendings (or solds), then that does NOT mean that 50% of all listings pended (or sold) within 9 days!!! It means that AMONG those that DID pend or sell, 50% did within 9 CDOM. That is not the same thing as what you claim.

    That’s correct–I used sloppy language. I was only referring to the listings that sold, so I should have used the word sold rather than sell.

    I still though think the numbers are very relevant. That there are some listings that are poorly marketed and/or priced too high to ever sell is another matter. The point I was trying to make is that it’s still a good market for sellers who list and market properly, but at the same time that two day difference means a much much better for buyers than the prior few years.

    If you go back to June of 2009, the CDOM for King County SFR was 72, and DOM was 45–meaning quite a few listing were failing. But those are the types of numbers you get in a bad market. We’re a long way from there.

    Ancient data from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  107. 607

    By Justme @ 600:

    Get ready for a hailstorm of hairsplitting and misdirection from Kary.

    Get ready for pointless posts by Justme.

    But hey, do you feel better now? Maybe next time you can try to contribute something useful. (Note that is a “rhetorical suggestion”–I know you’re not capable.).

  108. 608
    Benjamin says:

    Kary working double time to convince a bunch of random strangers on the internet that the market is still hot.

  109. 609
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 607
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 606

    I am positively surprised by you today, Kary. I’ll leave it at that. Happy 4th!

  110. 610

    RE: MD @ 510
    Yes MD

    Both the Democrats and Republicans need a good spanking when it comes to homelessness. Its non-partisan and when rents are too high for full-time COSTCO workers near me [they are]….its time for a new landlord paradigm shift; like rent sharing contracts per individual tenant and double locked refrigerators per tenant, locked cupboards for food per tenant; Seattle City Light billing two per apartment, not just one.etc,etc…

    Make the utilities or landlord responsible for half the apartment vacant, not the tenant. The 60% rent per tenant should cover the costs.

    These duel tenant affordable apartments should prosper too, win/win. Or end up in homelessness defeat worshiping the real estate Baal god. How’s the air pollution smoke later this Summer due to chronic homelessness if we just sweep it under the rug?

  111. 611

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 605
    Yes Ardelle

    I saw a Rosey the Riveter “Can Do” metal sign in an antique store from WWII [it was $52, a bit pricey]….women are a powerful manufacturing force when it matters, obviously….they should lead the new paradigm back to real manufacturing work again?

  112. 612
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 605 – ? I never said anything about the looks of the Sovereign Citizen.

  113. 613
    Coconut says:

    This site has devolved from facts and figures to endless conjecture and vocabulary graffiti on stale posts….seriously does anyone have a seattle bubble alternative that has good updates (timely) on what’s going down?

  114. 614

    RE: David @ 611 – I think I just don’t understand most of what you said since the ones I run into are just ordinary people who often view themselves as victims. Especially the ones with problems resurfacing from 10 years ago. It’s a lot easier to deal with recent problems than ones from the last crash. Backtracking that far to resolve something in a current closing is not easy.

  115. 615
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 613 – A Sovereign Citizen is a real thing – a movement of sorts. A lot different than just basic mortgage fraudsters.

    The guy I was referring to was eventually arrested for Federal firearms violations related to automatic weapons and convicted in Federal Court. He was a dangerous guy.

    I was actually held in criminal contempt of court for refusing to represent the dangerous weirdo. I had the contempt charge thrown out though. But I am known for selectively screwing with judges.

  116. 616
    TheBenBernank says:

    Isn’t price the ultimate determinant of whether a market is a seller’s market or buyer’s market? Inventory, DOM, and CDOM are all proxies to price, aren’t they?

  117. 617

    By TheBenBernank @ 616:

    Isn’t price the ultimate determinant of whether a market is a seller’s market or buyer’s market? Inventory, DOM, and CDOM are all proxies to price, aren’t they?

    That’s a good question, because so much of this data doesn’t really mean anything in a vacuum, and I think that may be why I haven’t been focusing on this site much recently. But I reached that conclusion by focusing on what is a healthy market, not what is a buyer’s or seller’s market. The best example of that is that high inventory can be unhealthy, low inventory can be unhealthy.

    I don’t have a good answer to your question off the top of my head, but I would maybe change your question. Maybe it’s change in price rather than price. And I don’t mean was this month higher than last month, I mean over a term longer than a year. Or conversely, I would ask how CDOM correlates with increases and decreases in price. It’s interesting that Tim’s graphs don’t track that.

  118. 618

    Here’s an interesting table from the Seattle Time’s FYI Guy. Note the article sucks–seemingly not even understanding the basics of how a median is calculated (newsflash–moving from one above-median group to another above-median group does not change the median). But here it is:

    https://static.seattletimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/fyiguy-young-county-graph-WEB-1020×948.jpg

    It purports to show the increase in population in King County between 2010 and 2018, which I assume is 9 years. It shows an increase of 250,000 people of house-buying age (25-70) in those 9 years (again assuming the data is residents in King County–not entirely clear). That would be over 2,300 per month. Now admittedly not every new person of that age moving to the area is going to buy a house, and some of that group would be part of a couple and likely only buy one house, but at the same time, not every sale of a house is to a first time buyer new to the area. And of course there are those who die or move away, which would counter the effect of the new arrivals.

    If only 500 of those 2,300 each month turn into first time buyers in this area that would have a significant impact on price when you consider that 3,500 is a good month for sales (SFR and Condo). Given that increase in population data it’s not that surprising our median prices have gone up from 2010 to 2018. Ditto rents.

    Does anyone see any flaws in this analysis? I’ve tried to factor in couples, deaths, new people not buying, older people moving away. Am I missing any other major factors?

  119. 619
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 618

    >>Does anyone see any flaws in this analysis?

    Ahem. The population data you quoted is highly inaccurate (read: overestimated) because it based on counting new housing units and assuming that said housing units are occupied at the same rate as was the case in the hosuing units that existed and were surveyed in the 2010 census. In other words, these population estimates are garbage. It is well known that lots of apartments have been built in Seattle and KC the last 5 years. Many of these apartments are still empty, as has been reported before, with the last numbers I saw that 11% f all Seattle apartments are empty. Therefore the population numbers are way off.

    I guess I have to point out this massive flaw every time SeattleTimes prints a breathless story based on brain-dead regurgitation of massively flawed data. It most be half a dozen times I’ve had to do this now.

    Reference (which seattletimes could not be bothered to publish):

    https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

  120. 620

    By Justme @ 619:

    I guess I have to point out this massive flaw every time SeattleTimes prints a breathless story based on brain-dead regurgitation of massively flawed data. It most be half a dozen times I’ve had to do this now.

    Reference (which seattletimes could not be bothered to publish):

    https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

    I was having doubts about the data, which is why I had the parenthetical comment “assuming the data is residents in King County.” It wasn’t even clear from the article what that data was, beyond coming from the “Census Bureau.” But I think you’ll need to post your link one more time, because the one you posted doesn’t give any information.

    I’m obviously not a big fan of the FYI Guy. I don’t think he has a good grasp of many of the topics he covers. He should call himself the FYM (Misinformation) Guy. Ditto KOMO’s Connie Thompson, although for her part of the problem is getting information from Consumer Reports.

  121. 621
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Justme @ 619 – Isn’t the other more straight forward way to count net new population is to simply count new driver’s license registrations? Of course some of those new registrants will be too young to buy a house. But by and large, isn’t that the way to count “new people”?

  122. 622

    By TheBenBernank @ 621:

    RE: Justme @ 619 – Isn’t the other more straight forward way to count net new population is to simply count new driver’s license registrations? Of course some of those new registrants will be too young to buy a house. But by and large, isn’t that the way to count “new people”?

    With politics affecting the census that may be the only way. I’m waiting to see conservatives in liberal areas and liberals in conservative areas refusing to answer census forms to limit the federal dollars flowing to their local governments.

    Any idea what that data shows over the past 9 years for King County?

    Note on your driver’s license data there may be some lag due to people delaying getting a new license, but when you factor in identity cards issued by the state it’s probably fairly accurate over longer terms.

  123. 623
    biliruben says:

    Another Seattle Times article, showed that domestic out migration topped in-migration by more than 5000 in 2018. It was corroborated by the license info, though I can see all sorts of problems with that data too. At least 2 data points that say the same thing are better than one.

    The only reason King is growing at all recently is international immigration. Techies from China and India, most likely. The new Visa rules, and Trump’s war everything he’s scared of might slow even that.

  124. 624

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 593
    Lower Interest Rates for 2019

    Now turn to Higher Interest Rates for 2019 with Trump’s Economy Rosey Q2 Jobs Report?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-jobs-top-forecast-224-123001521.html

    I hear they really need plumbers and construction heavy lifting job applicants [real work with higher pay Bubbleheads] and scarce industrial skills….muscles and complex tooling trained too…this is where the good pay hiring is at now. This labor shortage is worsening as we cut deficits and go back to old fashion “Rosey the Riveter Can Do Manufacturing” again….real work, and no where to flee from it anymore. You won’t need a homeless tent to pay the rent on like $30-40/hr per capita living level starter wages before gross pay pays all the taxes, health insurance, retirement and retirement fees…net pay is about 60-70% of gross pay folks.

    Time to close the service cubicle low pay jobs and open up factories again.

  125. 625
    Justme says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 620

    Here’s a better link, the other one only works after you have visited the site once already.

    https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2018/PEPANNRES/0400000US53.16200

  126. 626
    Justme says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 621

    I have written extensively before about how WA-DOL keeps track of new inbound driver licenses but does not keep track of the people that move out and forfeit their licenses. The result is more garbage data that journalists will write more garbage articles about, and that REIC insiders will misuse for propaganda purposes.

    search: site:seattlebubble.com Justme DOL

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2019/04/05/nwmls-prices-down-listings-way-up-sales-flat-from-a-year-ago/#comment-280322

    Please read the above linked comment and other comments I made in that thread.

    RE: biliruben @ 623

    You may also find aforementioned link and comment(s) useful.

  127. 627
    David says:

    By biliruben @ 623:

    Another Seattle Times article, showed that domestic out migration topped in-migration by more than 5000 in 2018. It was corroborated by the license info, though I can see all sorts of problems with that data too. At least 2 data points that say the same thing are better than one.

    The only reason King is growing at all recently is international immigration. Techies from China and India, most likely. The new Visa rules, and Trump’s war everything he’s scared of might slow even that.

    You’ve left out in-migration of illegal aliens. There are a lot of them. The areas are easy to locate by simply tracking where the violent murders are located including serial killers (the local pols refuse to call such), double murders. etc.

    Take note how you don’t hear much followup because they cannot find most of the perpw. The perps apparently go back home.

    The local newspapers here also cover up the crimes and the nature of the crimes. Which points up my belief that you can get away with murder if you have the right formula. Nationally they don’t solve about 30% of murders ever.

    Open borders forever!! Good for old apartments and houses.

  128. 628
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 627 – Hey, I heard that same story, except that it was white guys from Dixie and child molestation.

  129. 629
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 628 – Imagined up by you? Or an auto-biography?

  130. 630
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 629 – Up here, everybody’s heard it.

  131. 631
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 630

    Everywhere else we hear about the elegant Washingtonians who went to the capital building and asked: “If it doesn’t hurt the animal, what difference does it make.” LOL

  132. 632
    David says:

    Mexico also just changed the law to make it Nationwide – that the age of consent shall be moved down to 12.

    They’re ready for your visit now!

  133. 633
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 632 – Thanks, but I don’t have the Southern Disease. My sister is off limits too. Regards to yours. Please don’t hit her again.

  134. 634
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 633 – I did not know you had Intenet access on McNeil Island?

  135. 635
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 634 – I don’t have any kind of access to McNeil Island. Weird that McNeil Island and places lowering the age of legal consent would be top of mind with you.

  136. 636
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 635 – I represented a Mexican baby once. The Father was a Mexican National who impregnated his 12-year-old daughter.

    The daughter was the closest thing to a human frog I have ever seen.

  137. 637
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 635 – Had he stayed in Mexico, he would probably have been just fine. Or simply taken the girl back to Mexico to have the baby.

    Instead, the Illegal Mexican National is serving a minimum of 25 years in a US prison.

    Well, unless Jay Inslee makes sure his kind are not deported.

  138. 638

    By David @ 627:

    You’ve left out in-migration of illegal aliens. There are a lot of them. .

    That would impact rentals more than the sales price of houses. It would also affect the efforts of Seattle to create affordable housing. Just one of the many examples of where Seattle is counter-productive at its high priority tasks.

  139. 639
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 638 – True. I have seen illegals in ramshackle houses that the owner wants to mothball til the market transitioned.

    Successfully too. I’ve seen one on a block that sold last year for $440k. It was in absolutely terrible condition. Renovated without a single permit posted.

  140. 640
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 636

    I live in a rural district of Western Washington where the majority voted for Trump. Two folks I’ve met are brother and sister, Jack and Jacky. They decided about a year ago they were “more than just best friends”, and are very open about their romantic relationship. I wonder what kinda amphibious animals their children will look like?

    I’m not sure what the point of this story is or why I would post it on Seattle Bubble, except that your story about the frog girl reminded me of it.

    It sounds like your career sucked the soul outta you man.

  141. 641
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 637 – Wow; now you and Ivanka both know the critical importance of available birth control. I reckon this stuff could occasionally happen in Mexico, because it’s every other Saturday in Johnny Reb Country. We should collaborate on a book; working title: “The South Did Rise Again”.

  142. 642

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 585
    Yes Ben

    I read a couple days ago the interest rates could now rise in 2019 due to low unemployment and GDP growth. It flip flops in a blink of the eye…hard to make a a general prediction for 2019 with stocks performing so well of late. Trump wants to keep the economy growing and opposes interest rate hikes to slow it down….perhaps wishful thinking?

  143. 643

    RE: whatsmyname @ 641
    They Should at Least Use the “Rhythm Method”

    But many Latina don’t know what that is. Its not their fault…blame the schools, LOL

  144. 644

    SWE’s June 2019 YOY Investors’ Report

    Jun 0.19% 1.26% 7.04% 6.80% 5.94%
    YTD 1.28% 6.11% 18.53% 19.48% 14.42%
    Last 12 mo 2.82% 7.96% 10.40% 2.11% 1.53%

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    YTD American Stocks on an approximate 20% surge? WOWZA! Bonds are healthy too with interest rates lowering [for now]. Watch for interest rate hikes IMO in 2019, at a theater near you [and Bond drops]. The numbers are too good to not expect one. Real Estate sales’ affect? That’s where it gets foggy…take out the Ouija Boards Bubbleheads. Before Trump Tariffs the YOY Foreign Stocks out performed America Stocks, not any more folks.

  145. 645

    RE: Coconut @ 613
    Do You Really Know Where Seattle Real Estate Prices are Going?

    Where’s your two cents, it beats nothing? Its understandable the Bubbleheads are communicating honest confusion IMO. It is what it is, not what we wish it would be…

    Perhaps you don’t like bears vs bulls conversations, just bulls? Contribute something, so we know your views, not pointless whining about it with no contribution.

    My take is the saver’s take, not the debtors’ take…I’d love lower property taxes on my “paid for Seattle area home” to reduce fixed income property tax expenses…I profit on higher interest rates because I’m $CASH$ rich and retired. Milenial buyers and I agree on this need for lower home prices [high real estate prices and rents don’t put burgers on the table]. What’s your take?

  146. 646

    RE: Jeff @ 640
    Open Border Party Amazon and Microsoft Totally Agree With Your Take

    BTW…..why? Shouldn’t they be the opposite, they sure aren’t liberals…its called slave labor lust in my book, with no regard to ecology or OVERPOPULATION sewage waste. The New Greed Deal.

  147. 647
    Jeff says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 646

    What’s my take? I just shared a silly story that didn’t really have much to do with anything, because David seems to enjoy such tales.

    Who should be the opposite of what? Sorry if I missed something obvious here. Guess living rural makes me a simple minded fellow.

  148. 648
    Deerhawke says:

    Tim your site has devolved again into silliness and idiocy. Any chance of you getting things back on track by posting early estimates as you sometimes do?

  149. 649
    Patrick Weber says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 648

    Seconded!

  150. 650
    David says:

    By Jeff @ 640:

    RE: David @ 636

    I live in a rural district of Western Washington where the majority voted for Trump. Two folks I’ve met are brother and sister, Jack and Jacky. They decided about a year ago they were “more than just best friends”, and are very open about their romantic relationship. I wonder what kinda amphibious animals their children will look like?

    I’m not sure what the point of this story is or why I would post it on Seattle Bubble, except that your story about the frog girl reminded me of it.

    It sounds like your career sucked the soul outta you man.

    Sounds like Jack and Jacky should be in prison sometime soon.

    https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=9A.64.020

  151. 651
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 649

    Certainly lots of different kinds of people do all kinds of unfortunate things. It’s too bad some folks like to take these instances and use them to draw conclusions about whole nationalities, races, sexes, etc. Thanks for helping to demonstrate this phenomenon so clearly for us followers of Seattle Bubble.

  152. 652
    David says:

    By Jeff @ 650:

    RE: David @ 649

    Certainly lots of different kinds of people do all kinds of unfortunate things. It’s too bad some folks like to take these instances and use them to draw conclusions about whole nationalities, races, sexes, etc. Thanks for helping to demonstrate this phenomenon so clearly for us followers of Seattle Bubble.

    I am fairly sure that if we look at your actual behavior versus how you run your mouth, we will see you actually live very high and white!

    Seldom do you meet a tough talkin’ lib who really lives what they jabber on about.

    I actually have African ancestors in my DNA. I’d bet you have NEVER lived in a black area, Latino area (as opposed to illegal alien area), etc. Your lifestyle probably belies an actual racist intent that you live out daily.

    You’d move down South and, like a whooped puppy, you’d have your tail in the whitest area you could find. LOL

  153. 653
    David says:

    By Jeff @ 650:

    RE: David @ 649 – take these instances and use them to draw conclusions about whole nationalities, races, sexes, etc.

    As of 2 weeks ago, I am under a continuing subpoena to testify in a MURDER case in Seattle. One of our illustrious immigrants decided to be a Serial Killer.

    I personally intend to encourage the jury to find him not guilty if asked about the ultimate issue. Not sure I will be here in Seattle if he is acquitted. I would find it humorous if a Seattle jury lets him go to walk the streets with you and yours!!

  154. 654
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 652

    Based on your response, I’d say something I said must have gotten to you. Once again, thanks for the generous demonstration.

  155. 655
    David says:

    RE: Jeff @ 653 – You were smoked yesterday and don’t seem to realize it is happening again today.

  156. 656
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 654

    Can you blame me. I’m just a country bumpkin after all, living on a little three acre farm, surrounded by Hispanics, legal and otherwise. This year we’re growing half our vegetables and a quarter of our meat. Next year we’ll be growing all our veggies and half our meat plus a small stand to sell and give away the excess. We’re doing ok for libtarded failures as you seem to assume I am.

    As for yourself, I’ve never heard a lawyer talk about previous and current cases and clients of theirs as you so frequently and disparagingly do here on Seattle Real Estate Bubble.

    Now I’m no lawyer, but I’ve befriended and inflamed enough of them over the years to know that such behavior is generally frowned upon in lawyerly circles. This leads me to conclude that you are A: not a lawyer, B: a pretty bad lawyer, or C: close enough to retirement that you just don’t care. I don’t have an opinion about which it is, but I’m glad I probably won’t be needing your services anytime soon.

    Mind you I’ve never sued or been sued in my life, which is pretty unique for someone who has a knack for pissing of folks in the legal profession.

  157. 657
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 652 – Talk about serial killers. Our most famous one was white boy, Ted Bundy. He wasn’t born here; and eventually decided Florida was more to his liking, (Hmmm, am I having deja vu?). But that’s who we think of when we think serial killer.

    Also, in context of walking one’s talk, what does living “very high and white” mean?

  158. 658
    Voight-kampff says:

    Damn!
    Seattlebubble be trippin’

  159. 659
    TheBenBernank says:

    So let’s get back to conversation about the housing market. Is there any conversation left about if/when the market will turn and by how much? The big question looming is when the music will stop and how severe the contraction will be after 121 months of expansion. Will incomes continue to support these prices in the local area?

    Anyone?

  160. 660
    Jeff says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 658

    I think part of the problem is that almost every character on here has already pretty much answered these questions one way or another for themselves and the rest of us, so I think many of us seem to be just passing time until the next updated post comes around, and even then, most folks opinions will probably change very little.

    I personally don’t think it’s a matter of the music stopping, but rather just fading, and it’s rather difficult to perceive on a day to day, week to week, or even month to month basis, but the data is starting to show compelling evidence of the beginnings of a bubble deflation as near as I can tell.

    I find the Vancouver BC Real Estate scene to be more dramatic and interesting than Seattle at the moment and Steve Saretsky (look him up on Youtube if you haven’t already) is doing some good work reporting on the issues up there. I wish there was someone like that for Seattle.

    The economy isn’t made of only tech workers, and overall they account for a fairly small portion of the population. Despite that, they’re given a lot of credit for driving up home prices in the Puget Sound, but I doubt they can sustain them.

    In the meantime, why don’t we all just get back to flaming each other with political cheap shots?

  161. 661
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Jeff @ 659 – Nice summary, and very fair viewpoint. I agree with you. I am sort of getting tired of the political / non-housing discussions. Isn’t that what YouTube comment sections are for? Lol.

  162. 662
    don says:

    Well then, it looks like the sidebar kc inventory number has had a significant decline today. Another aberration, or are folks pulling listings, or sales on a hot plate briefly?

    Maybe The Tim with his inside view could explain this.

  163. 663
    Nicole says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 658
    I have nothing to offer about the future of the housing market, but here’s a note from the front lines of home buying: I went to several open houses this weekend in North Seattle. None of the houses had more than 5 names on the visitor sheets. The only exception was a $2.4 million home that had a lot of lookers, but I obviously can’t tell if people were genuinely interested. I had an interesting conversation with one agent representing a Chinese investor who was selling two homes in the area because of the negative impact of the trade war on his cash flow. However despite his need to sell the homes, he was unwilling to take much of a price cut on the houses even though he had at least $300k profit in one of them (bought for $515k, selling for 845 with no updates since purchase and home in bad need of repair.) The other house is rented month to month, but he would prefer to sell it if he had a reasonable offer.

  164. 664
    David says:

    RE: Jeff @ 655 – LOL, a public trial is talked about by lawyers all the time. You can read books by lawyers talking about their careers and cases.

    Keep talking about Bundy!! You’re doing my work for me.

  165. 665
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 663

    I’ve never heard a lawyer talk disparagingly about their own clients in public before you demonstrated it so frequently here. Kind of defeats the purpose of being your client doesn’t it?

    I see you were up late on social media again last night. I’m up with the sun, getting in some light lawyer flaming before I get out to the farm to flame some weeds.

  166. 666

    By don @ 661:

    Well then, it looks like the sidebar kc inventory number has had a significant decline today. Another aberration, or are folks pulling listings, or sales on a hot plate briefly?

    I’m not sure what you’re seeing, because I’ve not seen what I would call a “significant” change over the last 5 days, but to the extent active listings have been declining slightly, that’s likely due to the 4th of July holiday. Rightly or wrongly (I’ll express no opinion), some agents/sellers probably decided it wasn’t the best week to list.

    FWIW, there were over three times as many listings going pending over the past week as new listings. Cancelled and expired were slightly over half the number of new listings, but that’s likely only due to new listings being reduced.

    How this week goes will test that theory.

    Numbers are King County SFR from the NWMLS, but not guaranteed.

  167. 667

    What’s the deal with edits to posts not showing up right away anymore? It’s somewhat annoying.

    I added the following to the above-post, so just in case someone reads it before the edit appears, here’s the new material.

    FWIW, there were over three times as many listings going pending over the past week as new listings. Cancelled and expired were slightly over half the number of new listings, but that’s likely only due to new listings being reduced.

    How this week goes will test that theory.

    Numbers are King County SFR from the NWMLS, but not guaranteed.

  168. 668
    Justme says:

    Weekend update, twitter edition

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) housing inventory update: Single-Family Homes for sale is about 30% higher than the same date in 2018 and about 80% higher than 2017. Similar to last year, there was a slowdown in new listings around the holiday weekend. Should pick up again this week.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1148231804500844545

  169. 669
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 667

    Corrected:

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1148231804500844545

    Yes, edits are terribly delayed and have been for months.

    Edit1: What the heck, this time it was fast . Edit2: I spoke too soon, it was slow again.

  170. 670

    By Justme @ 668:

    Yes, edits are terribly delayed and have been for months.

    But this time it showed up fairly quickly. In the past I’ve seen it sometimes take over an hour. I’ve even tried using a different browser and IP address, to see if it just my browser not refreshing, but it seems to be the SB system.

  171. 671
    don says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 665

    I was looking at the Inventory sidebar for King C. SFH, 7/7/19.

    One am 4320 , 11 pm 4165

  172. 672
    uwp says:

    I see Justme is once again peddling his “don’t believe the census numbers” nonsense.

    2010 was a recent high in terms of vacancy rate. I’m not sure if you remember, but we were just a year out of the worst recession since the 1930s. There had been a lot of over building over the previous run-up.

    Do you think the current vacancy rate is higher than 2010? Here is a helpful chart of WA state compared to the nation over the last decade https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=olhK

    (FRED doesn’t track Seattle vacancy rate, but most articles I can dig up say vacancy is high, but below the 2010 highs).

    Does that mean the annual population estimates have been undercounting when the vacancy rate was at all time lows over the previous few years? Kind of makes you think!

  173. 673
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 672

    There you go again with your fuzzy math and fuzzy propaganda statistics. On Jan 4, 2019, Seattle Times reported that 10.5% of Seattle apartments are empty. It is well established. Have you ever seen ST overestimate a number that is bad for the REIC and a rentier class? Me neither.

    FRED data: Trying to conflate state-wide apples with Seattle-wide oranges does not yield good data. Apartment construction was concentrated in Seattle. Statewide construction-induced vacanacy rates are highj but considerably lower than Seattle citywide numbers.

    Here is a link back so people can see this has all been discussed before

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2019/02/08/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back/comment-page-1/#comment-278743

    UPSHOT: Yes, 10.5% vacancy rate in Seattle city-wide Jan 2019.

  174. 674
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 673
    RE: uwp @ 672

    PS: You misstate me again. It is not “don’t believe the Census”. It is believe the Census, but ONLY when there is a survey-based like the official 10-year census or the ACS survey (most years). Do NOT believe the third-rate population estimates that are based on counting new housing units and guesstimating occupancy rates.

    When will you stop lying about me?

  175. 675
    uwp says:

    Yes, vacancy rates are higher than last year. But my point is, they aren’t higher than 2010.

    “Overall, across the region that includes King and Snohomish counties, 8.5 percent of all apartments are empty; when excluding the new buildings, the vacancy figure drops to 5.3 percent. Both numbers are down just a hair from the prior quarter, when vacancy rates had hit their highest point since 2010.” (From the Seattletimes in April) https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-rents-growing-at-among-slowest-rates-in-country-as-apartment-boom-reaches-record/

    Highest since 2010. If anything, these population numbers using 2010 vacancy rates are undershooting true population. I salute you, Justme, for continuing to bring this to our attention. How much higher do you think the true population is?

  176. 676
    Jus7tme says:

    RE: uwp @ 675

    It is not vacancy that figures in the population estimate,! It is the occupancy rate. persons per housing units. Somdtimes it is hard to tell whether you are all ignorancy or all propaganda.

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