Case-Shiller: Seattle-Area Home Prices Flat in April

Let’s play a bit of catch-up today with some stats that I’ve allowed to fall behind. First up, the latest Case-Shiller data from a couple weeks ago. According to April data that was released late June, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.1 percent March to April
Up less than 0.1 percent YOY.
Up 30.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 2.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.1 percent.

Seattle has fallen from #1 in year-over-year price growth back in May 2018 all the way down to dead last #20 as of April.

Case-Shiller Year-Over-Year Home Price Change

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:


Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were eight metro areas that hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.


Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 141 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 30.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

It was quite a decline over the winter, but prices bounced back sharply during the spring. Will they continue to rise, or flat-line and drop further this winter? That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle is ‘a notable exception’ for stalled home prices

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2019-06-25)

5.00 avg. rating (92% score) - 1 vote

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

10 comments:

  1. 1

    YOY Price Trending Down to 0% for Almost All Cities Too, Not Just Seattle

    I noticed about five restaurants suddenly closing near Home Depot in Covington, I always thought they over-built them there, but never thought the old Kent icon Las Margaritas would die too [it just moved and remodeled to that Home Depot location a couple years ago], those brothers ran that restaurant for 30 years….it was a karaoke gathering place too.. sorry to see.

    Getting out in with my daughter and son-in-law in Kent area I noticed the old historic Black Diamond Bakery Restaurant is almost empty now, with Summer vacation started too [there used to be 1 hour waiting lines a few years ago]. Grim restaurant crowds now and closures galore….the antique store sported “no public bathrooms” just like 3rd world countries now too…drive around, check it out for yourself. Even the pricey Hotel Restaurants like Balis were like mostly empty.

    The Splash fireworks show in Kent was cut short and cheap…the food was crummy and the $20 parking at the Lake Meridian event was non-existent. We got our food from Hub-grub instead…its gone down hill folks.

  2. 2
    Justme says:

    My prediction timing the bubble peak this cycle is still the best one. I was 5 months off. Bubble Mongers still have their head in the sand.

  3. 3
    kenmorem says:

    By Justme @ 2:

    My prediction timing the bubble peak this cycle is still the best one. I was 5 months off. Bubble Mongers still have their head in the sand.

    hopefully you liquidated your RE holdings and made a killing.

    oh wait, you’re a perma renter. NVMD

  4. 4
    Jeff says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 3

    One of the main market signals I’ve gathered over the last almost year of following Seattle Bubble is the steady increase in a rhetorical strategy, primarily utilized by so called “bubble heads”, of citing an adversarie’s socio-economic status as evidence that their position is wrong. Many folks here probably find this sort of argument tiresome, but I’ve been following it carefully. My thesis is that it is an important indicator of doubt that is growing among folks who are fairly invested in the market. Unfortunately this data is somewhat subjective, and I don’t have any neat graphs to prove it like the ones Tim and Justme often provide.

  5. 5
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Jeff @ 4
    i don’t care one way or another.

    justme just comes off as insecure and utilizes the GOP strategy of chant ’til it’s true to sway opinions. creates hashtags. crossposts on multiple websites to convince others the bubble is bursting. says that seattle is too expensive and woe is me and that we should have subsidized this and that. reading between the lines, he strikes me as someone that is bitter about real estate and his life.

  6. 6
    OA says:

    RE: Jeff @ 4

    you’re treating this as a market signal? lol

  7. 7
    steven says:

    RE: OA @ 6

    is it any better or worse than professional analysis? not reallie.

  8. 8
    OA says:

    RE: steven @ 7

    I would take professional analysis over drawing conclusions from the comment section of an online blog.

  9. 9
    Notme says:

    Not the insecurez!
    Oh noes, not the bitterz!
    Teh ROFLMAO

    -a bubble insecurity haiku

  10. 10
    Notme says:

    Whatcha’ma call it
    Argumentum ad doucheium?
    yeah, that’s the ticket

    -a google-whacked bubble haiku

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.