Around the Sound: King County alone in price drops and big inventory gains

Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, and support the ongoing work on this site by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.

I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let’s have a look at that. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

June 2019 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $695,000 $515,000 $376,500 $391,657 $344,000 $402,500 $380,000 $417,750
Price YOY (2.8%) 0.7% 7.3% 10.6% 5.8% 5.1% 11.8% 7.1%
New Listings 3,487 1,480 1,751 491 618 207 273 397
New Listings YOY (10.7%) (12.2%) (10.4%) (17.8%) (2.2%) (12.7%) 7.1% (6.6%)
Active Inventory 4,625 1,841 1,945 611 569 350 449 654
Inventory YOY 24.4% 14.4% (7.9%) 3.7% (14.4%) 2.6% 6.1% 7.2%
Closed Sales 2,718 1,215 1,521 432 553 186 213 326
Sales YOY (1.5%) (1.7%) (8.6%) (5.5%) (0.5%) (11.0%) 0.9% (4.4%)
Months of Supply 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.0

King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales (sales rose in Skagit though). In most of the other Puget Sound counties, sales are declining, and listings are either falling or not increasing by much, and prices are rising.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

New listings fell everywhere but Skagit County in June. Bad news for buyers hoping to find more selection as we head into the summer.

Next up: Active inventory.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Inventory fell in Thurston and Pierce counties, but increased everywhere else. King and Snohomish saw the biggest gains, but both of those were far smaller than the gains we saw late last year and earlier this year.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

The biggest increase in home prices in June was Skagit, where prices rose 12 percent. Kitsap was close behind with an 11 percent increase. Every other county was in the single digits.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were down in every county but Skagit, where they managed an increase of less than one percent.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

This graph is the most telling—every county is still a very strong sellers’ market. Most counties are slightly better for buyers than they were a year ago, but we’ve still got a long ways to go before we get even close to what most people would call a “balanced” market (4-6 months of supply).

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,162 comments:

  1. 501

    RE: steven @ 496
    Like Your New Blog Style Steven

    Keep it up, we all got a have a place to live, HOA fees will eat you blind too. Erik knows this too, that’s why he $CASH$’s in every other year. He makes his money reselling fast and not hanging on like a landlord. Smart formula in Seattle. I’ve met with Erik and told him its a profitable life style but most spouses won’t like the constant moving around and school changes now too [Erik just had a baby boy]. His wife sounds like him, so he may be an exception to this rule and let’s face it….you do what it takes to keep your family afloat.

    I agree with you a house contract doesn’t put burgers on the table, but $CASH$ing it in will…

  2. 502
    steven says:

    RE: uwp @ 499

    u do realize in karys mind, this post is supposed to be totally unuseful blathering that is unintelligent only proving ur prowess in counting in terms of content
    (of course, it hell find it extremely relevant and useful as it feeds his mega ego thatll mask his feeling of insufficiency

    also swe… u do realize erik is the same guy ur friend kary accused of being uninsightful?
    whos the real troll now?

  3. 503
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 493 –
    ———-

    On the topic of local news, I don’t know if the NWMLS cuts off their data at midnight, but at 6:35 a.m. the active King County SFR listings were down about 300 units from last month. Note though the prior 1st was a Monday. If you for some reason wanted to draw a trendline, it would probably be better to use a number from some point between Saturday and Monday morning (the latter being the best but any of those acceptable.

    ———-

    Thanks for this information Kary.

    I have posted about noticing the weakness in inventory over the past month. At a time of year when inventory normally keeps building toward an annual peak in September or October, inventory seemed to have flatlined.

    Now, in fact, we can see that inventory has dropped by, say, 7 or 8 percent.

    My guess is that this was caused by a continued drop in new listings that we saw last month. Hard to say if all this is the beginning of a trend or a blip in the data.

    (If we had a Justme on this site for real estate bulls, he would be trumpeting the Return of the Seller’s Strike!!!!.)

    But more realistically, what we may be seeing is the return of more “normal” inventory patterns. I would argue that in the 2012-2017 period, you got a certain amount of repressed supply. Why sell when the house would be worth more in 6 months? Or 3 months? Or 1 month? But people can only hold their breath for so long. With the rise in interest rates and a drop in buyer interest in early 2018, sellers looked for their long awaited payday. In 2018 we saw inventory rise to levels we had not seen since 2012.

    2019 has been all about hitting the reset button after 3 weak quarters in 2018. Prices have recovered. Sales and pendings have been healthy. So perhaps what we seeing now is a return to equilibrium levels of supply. My guess is that this might look like 2014/2015 levels.

  4. 504
    Snp says:

    In Seattle housing news….. my Redfin account is just constantly sending me price reductions. A lot of bigger price reductions at that, $15-$30k deductions at a time. Granted I feel like this is part of the inventory that priced way too high and now has the issue of being stale on the market.

    We toured a home that was okay, not bad, but had about a 3 inch high stack of realtor business cards…. That’s a lot of people to walk through an okay house, with a price reduction of $50k, and no buyers going for it. Interesting because the area we have been looking, Shoreline, seemed to be immune from any sort of slow down in the “lower” tier until now.

  5. 505
    Snp says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 502

    Agreed that it feels like a normal market, sellers can’t just slap whatever price and expect an offer. Buyers are thinking before just buying whatever. I think things were so crazy for so long that a normal market seems like a buyers market.

  6. 506

    By Deerhawke @ 498:

    2019 has been all about hitting the reset button after 3 weak quarters in 2018. Prices have recovered. Sales and pendings have been healthy. So perhaps what we seeing now is a return to equilibrium levels of supply. My guess is that this might look like 2014/2015 levels.

    After what we went through with the unprecedented very low supply there was going to be some sort of a reset. I’m surprised it hasn’t been more extreme, but maybe that means it’s just not over yet. I wouldn’t read too much into any short term trends.

  7. 507

    By steven @ 501:

    RE: uwp @ 499

    u do realize in karys mind, this post is supposed to be totally unuseful blathering that is unintelligent only proving ur prowess in counting in terms of content
    (of course, it hell find it extremely relevant and useful as it feeds his mega ego thatll mask his feeling of insufficiency

    also swe… u do realize erik is the same guy ur friend kary accused of being uninsightful?
    whos the real troll now?

    I’m sorry, but reading that how else would it be described as other than blathering. You don’t contribute to this site at all. You are just a stupid troll, and this post is evidence of that. Are you too stupid to realize that? Pointing out that your own post is blathering! A new level of stupidity.

    But hey, you did have one post here out of the 500 plus posted where you at least tried to make a point (about Redfin), but failed. And I note you don’t even try to refute anything I’ve said, and for good reason. You’re a STUPID troll.

  8. 508

    By Deerhawke @ 502:

    (If we had a Justme on this site for real estate bulls, he would be trumpeting the Return of the Seller’s Strike!!!!.)

    Justme is a permabear and that does make him less credible because he’s always reaching for facts to support a predetermined result. But at least he tries to post facts and that allows those facts to be refuted. And sometimes that leads to something very useful, such as in the early days of this thread where you and I asked Tim for more information and it lead to this, something I would call the most useful information since I returned here.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/KingCoSFHMOSPrice-Change_2019-06.png

  9. 509
    sfrz says:

    Here Kary. I’ll save you the next 10 posts:
    1) Troll
    2) Stupid
    3) unintelligent
    4) lack education
    5) Troll
    6) Stupid Troll
    7) Blathering
    8) Troll
    9) Too stupid
    10) Troll

  10. 510
    QA Observer says:

    Ummm, the 10-year rates is down 13 basis points as of 8/1/2019 at 13:47 EST.

    I am an engineer so I do not really know what this means from a macroscopic level. Seems like a big shift from risky equities into safety bonds.

    Is the sky falling?

  11. 511
    steven says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 504 – ur so clueless that you don’t ‘even know what “this” is. I was about to call you retarded but I will refrain. You’re “regressed.” I’m sure at point you were a better mind than you are now (or i certainly hope so). ppl! these are prime examples of dotage and dementia. Please take your parents to a doctor when you see your parents aggressive and illogical like this. no men/women or families should have to go through this!

    ##end dementia for all##

  12. 512
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 504 – If anyone wants to report Kary for his unprofessional representation of John L. Scott Realty, please feel free to contact them. If you’re buying, you may want to avoid the realty firm if this is what they employ to represent them.

    https://karyandchina.johnlscott.com/
    Phone: (425) 454-2437

  13. 513
    steven says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 504 – I was about to call you retarded but I will refrain. You’re “regressed.” I’m sure at point you were a better mind than you are now (or i certainly hope so). ppl! these are prime examples of dotage and dementia. Please take your parents to a doctor when you see your parents aggressive and illogical like this. no men/women or families should have to go through this!

    ##end dementia for all##

  14. 514

    RE: sfrz @ 509 – The trolls are ganging up on me. I’d go through how little you post of substance, but I have better things to do.

    Seriously, I don’t claim to be the smartest person in the world, but I do know when people are much less (or more) intelligent and/or educated than me. The average level of intelligence and/or education (it’s sometimes difficult to determine) is rather pathetic. Which reminds me of the old joke.

    When you’re dead it doesn’t bother you, it only bothers the people around you. The same is true if you’re stupid.

    You and Steven bother me.

  15. 515
    Blake says:

    By QA Observer @ 507:

    Ummm, the 10-year rates is down 13 basis points as of 8/1/2019 at 13:47 EST.

    I am an engineer so I do not really know what this means from a macroscopic level. Seems like a big shift from risky equities into safety bonds.

    Is the sky falling?

    I just saw that as well! The Dow was up 300 pts then Trump dropped more tariffs and it is now down 250! 10 year rates had drifted lower by 5 bps earlier (which is a lot), but after the tarriff news it plunged. Sitting at 1.89% right now…

    Way to go Trumpy! ;-)
    He’s going to whine about the economy sinking his reelection, but he has only himself to blame. Trade wars are bad for business!! Good riddance!

  16. 516

    RE: steven @ 510 – I notice you’ve yet to try to refute anything I’ve said or anything I’ve said about what you’ve posted.

    Try posting something of substance. Until then, you’re just a stupid troll.

  17. 517
    Blake says:

    Note: This bad news came out before Trump announced the new tariffs.
    ISM Mfg Index
    Released On 8/1/2019 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2019
    Extending a straight slope down, ISM’s index fell 5 tenths in July to a lower-than-expected 51.2 to indicate only slight monthly growth in composite activity. After a peak of 60.8 in August last year, this index and has been trending lower and signaling one of the very most closely watched warnings on the health of the US manufacturing sector.

    Also: Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index, July 2019: “Markit’s US manufacturing sample has been moving steadily from slowing conditions to nearly stagnant conditions” [Econoday]. “The lack of confidence is affecting staffing levels which for this sample posted their first reduction in six years. Production moved forward last month but at the expense of backlogs which edged lower.”

    Construction Spending, June 2018: “The construction sector has been a stubborn disappointment all year, failing to show much life despite strong conditions in the domestic economy and favorable financing rates” [Econoday]. “This report brings up questions of possible contraction in foreign investment in US real estate and whether construction, like manufacturing, is being pulled down by global slowing and related tariff effects.”

    via: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/08/200pm-water-cooler-8-1-2019.html

  18. 518
    kenmorem says:

    for someone so smart and godly, kary&china sure do have a lot of grammatical mistakes on their website (total browsing time by me: <1 minute). inspiring confidence. but keep on keepin' on about your high IQ and big hands and total supremacy to everyone here.

  19. 519
    sfrz says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 515 – 1- in under 1 minute:
    “Kary & China explains options…”

  20. 520
    sfrz says:

    RE: sfrz @ 516 – Here’s a stretch. Really Kary. Do you?
    “They enjoy meeting people from all walks of life…”
    Except stoopid people and trolls? How ’bout if they have cash? Or, have an offshore account, but they are a duck farmer?

  21. 521
    steven says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 513 – wtf? r u still talking about the redfin popularity thing? u must be really regressed. single google search maybe sufficient to find. https://www.geekwire.com/2019/redfin-posts-487m-revenue-2018-losses-balloon-42m-year/

    r u still confusing popularity and success? . intelligence im sure u can argue all u want because it can be viewed subjective, but in terms or education i respectfully disagree. believe me, im much more and better educated than a degenerate 3rd tier law school graduate.

  22. 522
    Steve says:

    A condo steps from my apartment in West Seattle was listed for 299k and was quickly snapped up. 250 hoa, around 650 sq feet. Wouldve been perfect for me but I just started a new job after being laid off so I couldn’t get prequalified, in my mind.

    Would’ve been at the top of my affordability range. I’ll take solace in the fact that now is probably not the best time.

  23. 523
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 511
    I don’t think anyone, including myself, enjoys watching a lawyer pick on someone with a very low intelligence. Try fighting Ardell or Corndogs. They both used to own you.

    Sfrz doesn’t understand the market. Help her learn like Ardell helped you understand real estate.

  24. 524
    Erik says:

    RE: Steve @ 519
    Having trouble finding a $650sqft condo in west Seattle? I’ll sell you one on Avalon with a decent view in March for $400k. It has a view of the port and is very near the west Seattle bridge. If you want it, contact me. My email is mulbier and it’s a Gmail account.

  25. 525
    Erik says:

    RE: QA Observer @ 507
    If you’re an engineer, take your big ole brain and go to google and figure out what it means. You’re first mistake was getting an engineering degree. Use your intelligence to make money in real estate.

  26. 526
    steve says:

    By Erik @ 521:

    RE: Steve @ 519
    Having trouble finding a $650sqft condo in west Seattle? I’ll sell you one on Avalon with a decent view in March for $400k. It has a view of the port and is very near the west Seattle bridge.

    Hi Erik, I really appreciate the notice but I’d need to snag that 6-figure job at Amazon to qualify for a 400k loan. Though, it’s not impossible for that to happen between now and March. I currently only qualify for Renton-level condos or by the transit center in south west seattle who name escapes me at the moment.

  27. 527
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 500
    Gotta do some selling here in Seattle to afford the negative cash flow. I just try to buy as much as I can in nice areas I think will go up in value like west Seattle and shoreline. Then I sell when I need to or it feels right. Pretty easy way to make money as I don’t really do much work. My property manager, remodel contractor, real estate agent, and CPA do all the work. I just identify the property and fix it up. Then I wait for the value to double, then I sell or hold.

    My plan was to move around from remodel to remodel like I did when I was single. The woman I married agreed to that before we got married. We moved once since being married and she cried a lot. We moved out of a ghetto into a great area and the change got to her and she made it a big deal/cry fest. I’m not quitting, I’m just saying I’m not so sure the plan will still work. The whole thing was a pain in the butt.

  28. 528
    steven says:

    RE: Erik @ 521 – dude he just said 300k was his upper limit…

  29. 529
    Erik says:

    RE: steven @ 525
    He’s looking for a job that pays more dude. My bet is that he gets a high paying job soon dude.

  30. 530
    OA says:

    RE: sfrz @ 517

    Kary calls you guys dumb trolls only after you guys start attacking him on his frequent posts. Other than that, his posts are usually informative. In my opinion you’re the ones that waste people’s time here with this nonsense. If you don’t like the guy scroll past his posts, no need to tell everyone else how annoyed you are, no one cares.

  31. 531
    steven says:

    RE: OA @ 527 – actually, ppl do care. in fact theres more ppl caring than ppl who dont if u know how to count. in terms of attacking it was initially just suggested and recommended that he becomes more concise. he came back increasingly aggressive.

    im glad u find his comments informative. i dont. i feel like he can be more concise and not dominate 80 percent of comments along w swe as im here to see many ppls views not the views of only two individuals. lastly, y dont u take ur own advice and just scroll down if u think thats what we should do. “no one cares” what u think

  32. 532

    RE: steven @ 518 – Did you even read that article? Revenues are up, but that’s in part because they are moving into a new market of buying houses. And they are losing money at it, but a house sale generates a lot more revenue than a reduced commission on a house..

    I was referring to the number of listings Redfin has. It’s a bit harder to get stats on that now that they have multiple offices locally, but they do not seem to be taking over the market or any such thing.

    But thank you for finally tying to post something substantive. Interesting that it took a new article for you to support your original point, and that it’s different than your original attempt to support the point. But it’s a step in the right direction.

  33. 533

    By OA @ 527:

    RE: sfrz @ 517

    Kary calls you guys dumb trolls only after you guys start attacking him on his frequent posts. Other than that, his posts are usually informative. In my opinion you’re the ones that waste people’s time here with this nonsense. If you don’t like the guy scroll past his posts, no need to tell everyone else how annoyed you are, no one cares.

    Thank you, but you’re wasting your breath. Trolls gotta troll.

  34. 534

    RE: sfrz @ 517RE: sfrz @ 516 – I’m not sure where those comments come from. We don’t spend a lot of time on websites (or advertising), and the one linked above is just canned stuff JLS puts on it if we don’t do anything. Picking an agent off a website is pretty foolish, IMHO. And rather obviously I don’t try to get clients from this site–if I did I would be giving scripted information.

    If you want to see what our website looks like you would click on the one that I link every time I post (the link in my name). https://www.facebook.com/karyandchina/ I haven’t been terribly active posting stuff on that site lately, but that is our website.

  35. 535

    The Price of Homes Goes Way Down in the Suburbs in the Seattle Area

    Now you have SWE rolling on the ground in laughter….here’s what boon-dock Northbend new homes go for at 3 bdrms with stair case frames….about 3/4s of a million each.

    https://www.quadranthomes.com/washington/cedar-landing/?utm_source=paid_advertising&utm_medium=yahoo&utm_campaign=quadrant_consideration_customsegments_yahoo&medium=tsa

    Does anyone have cheap homes in the boondocks, i.e., Northbend?….isn’t that about 50 miles east of Seattle in the mountains? LOL…I was there a couple of years ago, the traffic is horrible with OVERPOPULATION there, extremely horrible.

  36. 536

    RE: softwarengineer @ 532 – North Bend isn’t that far out, and with I-90 I don’t think traffic is all that bad compared to other situations (e.g. 405 south of Bellevue). But I haven’t checked commute times from out that way in quite some time. Maybe the population has grown significantly.

    Edit: It’s apparently 30 miles and right now (8:45 Friday morning) it’s apparently 35 minutes into Seattle, with between that and just over an hour being typical if you want to arrive by 8:30 a.m.

    My main concern about the North Bend area is they do have areas with quite a bit of air pollution in the winter from burning wood. The valleys can capture the smoke. It’s not necessarily a problem for the entire area, but it is something to consider in that area. I read once that parts of Lake Forest Park have the same issue, but I haven’t experienced it there. I have in North Bend.

  37. 537

    RE: Erik @ 524
    Best of Luck Erik

    Its all part of being Dad Erik, Family First. I settled down when my 2 kids came too….I love the kids and don’t regret it, but sometimes I wonder if single and free isn’t an equally admirable goal. They both have good attributes, but a single person can make “easier” money staying that way….most of the flippers I know are single [or having a spouse with your itch for quick $CASH$ too]. Spouses change too, that’s normal.

    There was a reason for the Bible suggesting staying single [most Christians would never admit it] and perhaps personal flexibility is the reason?

  38. 538

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 533
    I Was out at the Northbend Train Ride

    Getting back to just hwy 18 at rush hour is a 20-40 min wait…the traffic suddenly came to stop and it was dangerous driving….packed intersections with crummy traffic controls…perhaps its the Casino traffic?

  39. 539
    Deerhawke says:

    Another report from my part of the elephant here in Greenlake. Three places went on the market in the past 2 weeks. One was a duplex priced at what seemed an absurdly high price. The price had no relationship to cap rates. One was a half tear down at an absurdly high price. It had been sitting vacant since it was red-tagged in 2016. One was a nice but tiny 900 SF house on a good lot at a reasonable price. Suddenly I found out all three are pending.

    I won’t know final prices for a while but that sure was fast. All pending in two weeks or less. I heard from a neighbor that the 900 SF house had multiple offers and sold all cash for $100k over asking.

    Pretty amazing for the dog days of summer.

  40. 540
    N says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-administration-placing-new-limits-on-cash-out-refinance-loans-2019-08-02?mod=mw_theo_homepage

    In 2018, the volume of cash-out refinances grew as mortgage rates rose, making up 63% of all FHA refinance activity through September, up from 39% the previous year, the Wall Street Journal reported.

    “People really started using their homes as ATMs, and when the market plummeted they ended up upside-down,” said Rick Sharga, a mortgage industry veteran. “A lot of the foreclosure activity in the last cycle was caused by people doing cash-out refis.”

  41. 541

    RE: N @ 537 – I’m not even sure why the FHA does any cash out refinances. Doesn’t seem to be part of their mission.

    As to the quote, last time part of the problem was appraisers being unduly influenced by lenders. They’ve tried to clean that up a bit, but I don’t know how successful they’ve been in the refinance area–I don’t see refinance appraisals with any regularity at all (less than one a year).

  42. 542
    Blake says:

    Well… The US really doesn’t need any “goods producing” jobs do we? ;-)

    (snip): Those “goods-producing” sectors, as Labor Department classifications call them, added an average of 58,000 jobs a month in 2018. That is now down to 23,000 a month thus far in 2019 — and a mere 15,000 in July. There are several culprits.

    The trade war is probably part of it, both directly and indirectly. Many manufacturers have cited trade as a reason for slower growth, both in surveys and in conference calls with investors, and the numbers support the idea that they have become more cautious. The strength of the dollar on international currency markets has probably contributed as well, by making American exporters less competitive.

    The manufacturing sector added 16,000 jobs in July, but that is down from 22,000 a month in 2018, and the sector has averaged only 8,000 a month so far in 2019.

    Prices for oil and other commodities have fallen in recent months, contributing to the fall in mining jobs — down 5,100 in July alone (the category includes oil and gas extraction, as well as “support activities” for mining). This too is tied to broader trends, as the trade wars have caused slower world economic growth and thus driven down commodity prices.

    Weak growth in construction jobs (a mere 4,000 added in July, compared with an average of 26,000 each month in 2018) reflects a softening housing market and weak investment by businesses in new structures.
    (end quote)

    My money is on Trump to continue to be… Trump! Tariffs and trade wars!!
    Looks like toys will be hit with the new round of tariffs, so this Christmas we’ll all be paying those tariff “taxes!”

  43. 543
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 531
    Sfrz is a low intelligence libtard. I don’t see why you put any weight in her opinion. Sfrz probably got addicted to drugs as a teen and was passed around ultimately having a child. Dropped out of high school and later got her GED and real estate license. Point is, you are wasting your time fighting dumb people.

  44. 544
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 534
    Marriage is a double edged sword. My happiness is greater and my wallet is lighter.

  45. 545
    S-Crow says:

    RE: N @ 537 – I meant to comment on that development yesterday.

    FHA is pulling back FHA cash out refi’s from 85% LTV to 80% LTV beginning Sept. 1 according to the article in Housing Wire.

    FHA borrowers are typically cash strapped from the onset so if they get to a point where they cannot service their debt load and the market is unhelpful with appreciation then they will have problems. Remember many of these borrowers total (rear end ratio) debt-to-income levels are at or above 43% and as high as 50% with compensating qualifying factors (based upon Gross income mind you!).

  46. 546

    RE: S-Crow @ 542 – Do you escrow many/any of these? If so, where is the cash out going–paying credit card debt? With needing 20% down their credit obviously wouldn’t be too great, otherwise they’d go conventional which has the same required ratio.

    I’m just not seeing the point of these. They should require credit counseling prior to getting one of these FHA products, just as they require it prior to filing bankruptcy. It could be the same course, and they might discover that bankruptcy is the better option.

    To be clear I’m not being critical of FHA purchase money loans, or even refinances. VA refinances used to be rather problematic in that a number of questionable lenders would contact the homeowner to push through questionable refinancing.

  47. 547
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 543 – Yes, we close VA, FHA purchase transactions and FHA coupled with Washington State Housing Finance Commission transactions. Many. Including refi’s. You hear the usuals on the radio pushing 100% VA refinance loans.

    Refi’s are going very steady right now and with 30 yr rates I’m seeing at 3.625% at par, I expect that to remain strong through the summer and into the Fall. Cash out refi’s are going to pay down credit cards, pay the IRS and payoff cars/boats/RV’s, Student Loans (Navient), or pull cash out for fun money or renovations.

    With refi’s , as usual people finance the closing costs into the loan and their loan amount increases substantially with all the payoffs. House = ATM machine. Until the ATM Machine is out of money or is limited (reduces the amount of money due to FHA LTV limits).

    I cannot emphasize how critical FHA and VA is to the marketplace right now to move “affordable” sub $500K inventory. My comment in #462 is relating directly to FHA and VA transactions. People should read it again and let is sink in about the ramifications.

  48. 548
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 544
    We are going the wrong way. Time to remove the training wheels and party. If anyone is listening, please remove the loan restrictions and let the party begin!!!

  49. 549
    whatsmyname says:

    Looking forward to the weekend update.

  50. 550
    QA Observer says:

    RE: Erik @ 545
    Yes because that ended well last time. Myopic, and frankly naive!

  51. 551

    By S-Crow @ 544:

    Cash out refi’s are going to pay down credit cards, pay the IRS and payoff cars/boats/RV’s, Student Loans (Navient), or pull cash out for fun money or renovations.

    Some of those uses really should have credit counseling beforehand, particularly the paying down credit card part, and probably the paying off vehicle loans part. Without changing behavior they will likely end up in the same situation again. This ATM behavior was very common back when I was practicing law, and it was amazing how many times some people would repeat the process before running out of equity (or the market ran out of steam).

  52. 552

    RE: whatsmyname @ 546 – FWIW, King County Active SFR listings are down only about 125 from July’s figure, so not a significant change.

    This is about as good of time as any to compare the number, and probably better than the actual month end due to the prior month end being on a weekend and this one being on a Wednesday.

    Number from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  53. 553

    Families Left Behind in Shoreline Wash

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/families-go-deep-in-debt-to-stay-in-the-middle-class-11564673734

    Its a pay per view WSJ URL, but the picture of the crummy gray apartment house and the kid playing on the road instead of a back yard says it all.

  54. 554

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 511
    Its Not Just Them Kary

    The whole Open Border Party have this itch to blame everything on others and do no real work with real wages…they call management opinion analysis a Fascist Conspiracy of White Extremists…LOL, that sounds like a great horror “fairy tale” fiction book. I feel sorry for them, its called the “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and they need therapist help in my book…

    All possibility thinkers have self esteem, its not selfish its a good trait. The lack of useful inputs by this crowd is their badge of honor, so don’t try to fix them. Its out of our field Kary. They want us all out of gas cars and into electric cars with no electric grid to support their agenda, i.e., a good example of their brainlessness in a credible scientist’s book.

  55. 555
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 549 – True that. But if we’ve got to the point where intra-week inventory changes are as or more significant than inter-month changes, we’ve already accepted a pretty flat inventory curve Although I think we’ll see a bump in August or September, there is a nonzero chance that the seasonal curve has already shifted downward.

  56. 556
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 550 – Here is the ‘free’ version –

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/families-go-deep-into-debt-to-stay-in-the-middle-class/ar-AAFbEHE

    Sobering article…

    Elizabeth Bauerle and Andy Bauerle have been trying to buy a house for seven years without success, despite having combined income of about $155,000—in the top 20% of households, according to Census data.

    The two 34-year-olds face a common conundrum. Their jobs are in the Seattle metro area. In cities with strong job and wage growth, such as theirs, rising real-estate prices can put home ownership out of reach even for families that rate as well-off by overall national standards.

    The Bauerles have $30,000 in their down-payment fund, but the kind of house they want—a two-bedroom, two-bath with a yard—starts at around $600,000 in and around Seattle.

    They figure they would need to make a down payment of $70,000 to keep the mortgage payment manageable, given their other obligations. These include student-loan debt of about $88,000 that consumes around $1,000 of income every month.

    Ms. Bauerle said about half of their take-home pay goes out the door for that plus $1,750 in rent and $1,200 in child care for their son. “Four thousand dollars of our income is immediately spoken for,” she said.

    Like many families, they have stretched out the monthly payments on an auto loan. They have a 2013 Subaru, bought used three years ago. They won’t write the last $240 monthly check on the car until it’s about nine years old.

    Families such as the Bauerles who want to live in solid middle-class neighborhoods with good schools and reasonable commutes are increasingly renting single-family homes.

  57. 557
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 553

    Student loan of $88,000 after several years of payments. Good grief.

    My wife and I got married right out of university with a laughable net worth of about $700, but neither of us had any debt.

    I can’t imagine starting out behind the 8-ball like that.

    You have to wonder where the parents were. Who would let their kid get into that kind of debt?

  58. 558
    Erik says:

    RE: QA Observer @ 547
    Those that have been studying the cycle will be ready. The ones that have grit and act will do very well. I feel like I’m one housing boom and bust away from financial freedom. I hope for one more spike in prices brought on by government interference and a 2024 crash.

    My wife works from home right now for 4 hours per day and makes like $40/hr. I estimate she makes $31.2k/year(1040hr/year x $40/hr x .75). So after a hole year, she walks away with $32k after tax. I am very happy she makes that because it all helps and I don’t have passive income, and at the same time I just think how easy it is to make that amount on one not very successful flip. During the recovery, people were buying for $150k under value on the regular. I’m sure most could make 80 to 100k on a flip. Just feels like we are wasting our time working for income when there is so much money to be had in Seattle real estate.

  59. 559
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 554 – In the 70s and 80s, you could work yourself thru college. Not today. The Fed’s involvement in ‘aiding’ students has made college unaffordable. Every time the Fed gets involve, e.g. Education, Housing, Healthcare, it distorts the market and makes everything unaffordable.

  60. 560

    By whatsmyname @ 552:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 549 – True that. But if we’ve got to the point where intra-week inventory changes are as or more significant than inter-month changes, we’ve already accepted a pretty flat inventory curve .

    Excellent observation. It’s only during periods of little change that it matters that much.

    The other way to look at it though is small changes from month to month are merely noise, and the noise can be caused by other differences other than day of week (although that’s more true of price data than active listing data).

  61. 561

    By Eastsider @ 556:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 554 – In the 70s and 80s, you could work yourself thru college. Not today. The Fed’s involvement in ‘aiding’ students has made college unaffordable. Every time the Fed gets involve, e.g. Education, Housing, Healthcare, it distorts the market and makes everything unaffordable.

    I assume you don’t mean the Federal Reserve when you say “Fed.” And even assuming you mean the Federal government, the blame goes beyond that. The availability of student loans (largely the Federal government’s fault), increased the demand for college educations, which increased the cost. But that’s not the end of it. It also allowed the states to reduce (relative) funding of universities, which increased the cost further. Also it allowed expensive expenditures, like satellite campuses. Student loans are a good example of good intentions leading to bad results.

    It’s somewhat similar to what has happened to healthcare costs in this country, but not as extreme. Many students (families) still pay cash for tuition and those that borrow do care more about the amount they borrow in comparison to how much employees care about what their employer provided health insurance costs. And yes, you can even make a similar comparison to the price of houses with the availability of 30 years mortgages. Whenever you make changes which allow more money to more easily be spent, prices will rise. There’s a reason there are ATMs inside gambling establishments and convenience stores.

  62. 562

    The Picture Isn’t I-5 at Rush Hour

    But it sure looks like our traffic at rush hour…

    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/traffic-stress-lagos-nigeria/index.html

  63. 563
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 556 – Reaganomics. The states and federal government have cut way back on the support they provide to schools, transferring that funding need to vastly higher tuition. But it’s marginally lower interest on loans they offered as cover that makes it unaffordable to the tuition payer?

  64. 564

    RE: whatsmyname @ 560 – I don’t really see that as being part of Reaganomics, or even a particular party. All politicians like to spend money on new things, and as they do that they have to cut back spending money on existing things. For a time King County was considering getting rid of Animal Control, which I consider a basic government function.

    On the student loan issue though I would note that the federal government did make it virtually impossible to discharge student loans in bankruptcy, as opposed to the law back in 1984 where it was merely fairly difficult for most student loans (loans for medical school being more difficult to discharge similar to today’s standards). I don’t remember when that change was made, but I think the legislation was likely very non-partisan. It’s easier to discharge most taxes compared to student loans.

    Even the old standard was tough though. I remember one reported case where the government was willing to stipulate that the debt should be discharged and the court refused to approve the agreement because there was no evidence that the debtor’s parents wouldn’t continue to allow her to live at home for free. So basically not being able to support yourself was not sufficient.

  65. 565

    RE: whatsmyname @ 560
    Yes whatsmyname

    King County spends twice the money on high school staff [i.e., teachers] than Cascade Highschool spent on staff per student in the 70s. Yet, I had math and science teachers that actually had Bachelor’s of Science Degrees [not today’s Bachelors of Arts Math/Science Village Idiots], study halls with 90% graduation rates without GEDs [9th grade level education BTW]….last I checked in Kent’s Phoenix Academy the graduation rate was 20%….horrifying. Green River Community College in Auburn Math professors demand COMPASS math tests at college and the average Kent high school [some graduated with honors BTW] college student has to retake 9th grade algebra…

    Its all a waste of public school funds for property tax increases money in my book.

  66. 566
    Armk says:

    RE: Erik @ 555

    Just my opinion, but I’d wager you won’t see another 2008 style crash and rebound for a while. Normal housing and economic cycle, sure. But to get another 2008 housing crash you need to get all the NINJA loans and shoddy underwriting going again. Which I guess is what you’re calling for.

    Bubbles rarely (if ever) happen the exact same way in consecutive fashion. It’s unlikely the next bubble/bust will be housing. More likely tech stocks (not FANG) trading at 10x revenue with no profits, that have been pushed up by this low return environment. Or corporate debt building up. Who knows. But people go off their immediate experience and you can bet 2008 housing is seared into all their minds. Which makes it all the more unlikely they will let it get that crazy again in housing. It’s going to be something people don’t expect, not the last bad thing that happened.

  67. 567

    RE: Erik @ 524
    If It Runs Don’t Fix It

    Great job Erik!

    I’m proud of you and your wife [and Baby Erik too]….I don’t care if Microsoft, Amazon or the Uber Rich Elite Companies don’t need degreed engineers, albeit pretend to, to get more slave wage H1-Bs…

    Some of those coming into Seattle are theoretically EB-5s [rich foreign folks getting free citizenship in America]…albeit there is no data to back this up. They’re theoretical perfect buyers for Erik, they know nothing about the boom/bust cycles….they all think its constant boom and buy before its too late…LOL

    You don’t need to lie or feel guilty at all in my book….they’ll pay anything to live in Seattle if they have the $CASH$. Good luck fishing ;-)

    I did the same thing you did Erik, I stopped fighting City Hall [you won’t win anyway] and profitted off the trillions of Quantitative Easing on stocks [welfare to the banks] during 2001-2015….350% return on investment BTW…bought 100% stocks when everyone else did what their financial planners [???] recommended, put most in like 0-3% long-term tax free locked boxes…I say, pay the taxes and scream, “I need my $CASH$ now” LOL

    I’ve evolved too, now I’m a lazy real estate investor now…gimmie the foreclosures for like 50-70% lower and I’d resell for double [with no staging costs] and save the buyer 30% too, or better yet, provide a poor Milenial daughter a free home instead of two years college funding at the U of W….LOL…I think we’re both proverbial vultures now. Seeee…we used our engineering savvy the right way…LOL …my daughter was right, I should have listened to her more closely a long time ago.

  68. 568

    RE: Armk @ 563
    Stay Put

    If that’s your opinion, but if you bought in at last year’s increase in price…let’s put it this way, I’d rather have it in American stocks [or even long term bonds] instead…

  69. 569
    Justme says:

    Remember that Zillow-based Seattle Times “rents are increasing” article from 2019-07-23 that got several SB landlords and bubble-mongers salivating? The one that I called out as propaganda and questionable? Well, the new Zumper data (article referenced below) uses multiple sources and shows Seattle median asking rent for a 1-bedroom is $1900 not $2100 as the Zillow data claimed.

    And then there is yet another ST article, from 2019-07-30, with Census survey data of actual (not asked) gross rent (meaning that cost of utilities is included in the number, whether paid by renter or landlord). That number for City of Seattle was $1555 across ALL unit sizes in 2017.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-now-most-expensive-city-for-renters-outside-california-census-data-shows/

    According to survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the median rent and utilities paid in the city of Seattle was $1555 in 2017, across all sizes and types of rental units.

    So the $2100 asking price is exaggerated, $1900 is more like it, and in real life people pay even less, most likel.

    In fact, according to Zumper, the peak was May 2018 at $1990, and we are still down 3.1 YoY and 4.5% from the peak.

    So, renters, keep calm, and keep the buyer strike going. It’s working just fine. Another landlord propaganda story just bit the dust.

    REFERENCE:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/02/apartment-rents-fall-in-southern-california-seattle-miami-chicago-san-jose-portland-dallas-double-digit-plunges-in-houston-nashville/

    Hottest, Most Expensive Rental Markets Unwind by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2019 • 68 Comments • Email to a friend But apartment rents in 10 other cities surge 10% to 15%.

    In the most expensive US markets, apartment rents hit a ceiling some time ago, in some cases four years ago, and have dropped from those highs, as tenants have reached their limit. That this wasn’t a brief fluke, after which rents would surge again in those markets, is becoming increasingly apparent. At the same time, sharp rent increases have moved down to less expensive markets.

    In Seattle, the median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments in July fell 3.1% from a year ago to $1,900 and is down 4.5% from the peak in May 2018. The median asking rent for two-bedroom apartments fell 4.1% from a year ago to $2,350, and is down 11.3% from the peak in April 2016.

    Clearly, after years of surging rents in Seattle, a ceiling has been hit. At the same time, the phenomenal boom in apartment and condo construction over the past few years has put plenty of supply on the market – though it’s all high-end, and therefore mostly the wrong supply. And those vacant high-end units that need to be filled are putting downward pressure on the entire scale.

  70. 570

    By Justme @ 566:

    Remember that Zillow-based Seattle Times “rents are increasing” article from 2019-07-23 that got several SB landlords and bubble-mongers salivating? The one that I called out as propaganda and questionable? Well, the new Zumper data (article referenced below) uses shows Seattle median asking rent for a 1-bedroom is $1900 not $2100 as the Zillow data claimed..

    It would be an incredible coincidence if two systems of determining the median rent came up with the same number. These are not publicly reported numbers and the results are based on sampling.

    Think of it like how the political polls for President come out with different numbers even fairly close to the election. Those at least show a margin of error based on their statistical analysis, as does Zillow with its Zestimates. I’m not sure whether these rental surveys give the same type of information.

    Finally, assuming you’re right though, yet more evidence that increased taxes don’t automatically get passed on to consumers.

  71. 571
    TheBenBernank says:

    What’s the best way to get a seller to delist and purchase from them directly? I assume there are probably time limits and clauses in the legal language that still probably obligate agents to some sort of payout, but how does that stuff work? Is there a way to do this?

  72. 572

    Thank God Seattle and Washington State Don’t Have MASS Violence Shootings

    I looked it up and 2019 had one report in Ellensburg, but no one hurt was killed last February…the MASS killing news has depressed SWE and we must tackle mental illness violence in America, now. Its time to vet psychosis and identify its root causes….Hades, we don’t even know how to diagnose schizophrenia or treat it for that matter. Just sending mental ill to homeless camps is not the answer, albeit gun controls need better and more reliable vetting techniques. Hunters, you’re just gonna have to live without bump stocks, they got banned today by the Federal Government.

  73. 573

    The Rich Elite are Converting to $CASH$ Now, You Should Too?

    The article mentions this top 1% buying real estate too, but the details are “fog” for Seattle. The graph showing 28% in real estate doesn’t show YOY change either.

    But its not foggy on $CASH$ conversions…stocks plunging today.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-superrich-are-selling-stocks-buying-properties-and-keeping-cash-ready-2019-08-05

    They see bargains in the future and/or don’t trust long term stock buying? You pick. Its anyone’s guess IMO.

  74. 574

    RE: softwarengineer @ 569 – Bump stocks are not for hunters. But yes, the shootings are depressing. About the only good news is how quickly and effectively the police reacted in the last one.

  75. 575
  76. 576
    Blake says:

    And so it goes…

    Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
    August 5, 2019, 8:38 AM PDT
    The latest eruption in the U.S.-China trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury-market recession indicator to the highest alert since 2007.

    Rates on 10-year notes sank to 1.74% on Monday, close to completely erasing the surge that followed President Donald Trump’s 2016 election. In early trading, they fetched as much as 32 basis points less than three-month bills, the most extreme yield-curve inversion since just before the 2008 crisis.
    (end quote)

    Trump reportedly overruled advisors in decision to slap tariffs on remaining Chinese imports
    PUBLISHED SUN, AUG 4 2019 4:29 PM EDT
    Virtually everyone at an Oval Office meeting objected to Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs, according to The Wall Street Journal.

    (It must be tough working for such a very stable genius…)

    US importers and consumers pay Trump’s tariffs, not China (cnbc)
    …But that is not how tariffs work. China’s government and companies in China do not pay U.S. tariffs directly. Tariffs are a tax on imported products and are paid by U.S.-registered firms to U.S. customs when goods enter the United States.

    Importers often pass the costs of tariffs on to customers – manufacturers and consumers in the United States – by raising their prices. U.S. business executives and economists say U.S. consumers foot much of the tariff bill.

    That was why, immediately after Trump announced his decision, U.S. retailers blasted the move as “another tax increase on American businesses and consumers,” which they warned would threaten U.S. jobs and raise costs for American families.

    The new levies will hit a wide swath of consumer goods from cell phones and laptop computers to toys and footwear.
    (end quote)

    The Dow has now dropped 1,000 points since he tweeted new tariffs. China is retaliating (shocking!!) and announced that they are ceasing imports of all US agricultural products. Interest rates are in free fall as all the big money is running for safety.
    Stay tuned…

    Oh, never mind! ;-)
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trumps-china-tariffs-not-affecting-us-consumer-prices-white-house-trade-adviser

  77. 577
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 569:

    we must tackle mental illness violence in America, now. Its time to vet psychosis and identify its root causes…. Just sending mental ill to homeless camps is not the answer, albeit gun controls need better and more reliable vetting techniques.

    Reading the summary of the killer’s manifesto, it is clear that he is just as “mentally ill” as the President and millions of his right-wing extremist supporters. WHERE are we going to put all these nut jobs? I agree, we should lock him and these violence-prone extremists up. It’ll be messy but we should start soon!

    And isn’t it odd that such violent “mental illness” only seems to motivate white racists to kill… I thought mental illness was more broadly distributed among the US population.

    Gee… it’s just a puzzle why this keeps happening!??
    SHOOTER: I was inspired by trump.
    MEDIA: what could have caused this?
    SHOOTER: look at this cool photo of the word “trump” spelled out in firearms
    See: https://twitter.com/seankent/status/1157778423319879680?s=20
    MEDIA: he probably played too much fortnite
    SHOOTER: it’s like trump said, Hispanics are invading us
    MEDIA: we may never know

  78. 578
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blake @ 574 – Why is Trump responsible for every mass shooting? TDS much?

    2019 Dayton shooting
    On a Twitter account believed to be registered to Betts, he described himself as a leftist, anime fan, and metalhead, and had posted tweets that opposed Donald Trump and supported Elizabeth Warren, gun control and socialism.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dayton_shooting

    On social media, the suspect’s biography started to emerge. On his Twitter page, reviewed by Heavy, he described himself as “he/him / anime fan / metalhead / leftist / i’m going to hell and i’m not coming back.” He wrote on Twitter that he would happily vote for Democrat Elizabeth Warren, praised Satan, was upset about the 2016 presidential election results, and added, “I want socialism, and i’ll not wait for the idiots to finally come round to understanding.” The Greene County Board of Elections lists his party as “Dem.” You can read a roundup of his tweets – which also dealt with Parkland, Florida and 9/11 – here and later in this article. Here’s his tweet on Donald Trump’s election victory: This is bad.
    https://heavy.com/news/2019/08/connor-betts/

  79. 579
    Blake says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 575
    Sorry, I can’t keep track of the mass shootings.! I was referencing the El Paso shooting.
    So did the Dayton shooter publish a manifesto praising Elizabeth Warren for inspiring him?

    Back over 10 years ago, Steve Bannon invested in some online gaming sites and hired trolls. He observed that “These guys, these rootless white males, had monster power.” He later took over Brietbart and hired the fellow White Nationalist Milo Yiannopoulos to stir up these “rootless white males.” “I realized Milo could connect with these kids right away,” Bannon told Green. “You can activate that army. They come in through Gamergate or whatever and then get turned onto politics and Trump.”

    They wanted to activate that army… Hate sells! Trump crosses the line repeatedly. Using terms like vermin, infested and invasion to refer to people is unacceptable. Trump doesn’t care… he’s a sociopath:
    What is a sociopath?
    A sociopath is a term used to describe someone who has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). People with ASPD can’t understand others’ feelings. They’ll often break rules or make impulsive decisions without feeling guilty for the harm they cause. People with ASPD may also use “mind games” to control friends, family members, co-workers, and even strangers. They may also be perceived as charismatic or charming.

    Doesn’t respect social norms or laws. They consistently break laws or overstep social boundaries. Lies, deceives others, and uses others for personal gain. Doesn’t follow up on personal or professional responsibilities. Doesn’t feel guilt or remorse

  80. 580
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 569:

    … we must tackle mental illness violence in America, now. Its time to vet psychosis and identify its root causes…. need better and more reliable vetting techniques.

    Oh… I forgot to post this: One of Trump’s first acts after being sworn in…
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna727221
    Feb. 28, 2017
    Trump Signs Bill Revoking Obama-Era Gun Checks for People With Mental Illnesses
    The new law nullifies an Obama-backed rule that added people with mental illnesses to the national background check database.

    Why? … WHY????

    WORST PRESIDENT EVER!

  81. 581

    As long as we’re totally off-topic, long-timers here will remember I was very critical of Boeing putting their second 787 plant in SC. Not the idea of a second plant, but putting it in SC. Here is yet another article (there have been many over the years) indicating production problems down there.

    https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/08/boeing-dreamliner-faces-production-quality-issues/

    At this point Boeing would be best off if a huge hurricane totally destroys the plant out so they could rebuild elsewhere.

  82. 582
    Blake says:

    I recall that discussion years ago and agreeing wholeheartedly with you Kary. My father’s company was bought by private equity investors in 1987 who decided to moved their operations from New York and Ohio to South Carolina for cheap labor. BIGGEST mistake ever… disaster! Now my brother’s company is based in Charleston and struggling with really high turnover and peopel that can’t seem to get trained!

    btw: This will be a big problem down the road.
    A Growing Problem in Real Estate: Too Many Too Big Houses
    Baby boomers and retirees built large, elaborate dream homes across the Sunbelt—only to find that few people want to buy them.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-growing-problem-in-real-estate-too-many-too-big-houses-11553181782?mod=e2tw
    Fifteen years ago, a generation of baby boomers built their dream homes. Now they can’t sell them.

    Now, many boomers are discovering that these large, high-maintenance houses no longer fit their needs as they grow older, but younger people aren’t buying them. Tastes—and access to credit—have shifted dramatically since the early 2000s. These days, buyers of all ages eschew the large, ornate houses built in those years in favor of smaller, more-modern looking alternatives, and prefer walkable areas to living miles from retail.
    … The problem is expected to worsen in the 2020s, as more baby boomers across the country advance into their 70s and 80s, the age group where people typically exit homeownership due to poor health or death, said Dowell Myers, co-author of a 2018 Fannie Mae report, “The Coming Exodus of Older Homeowners.” Boomers currently own 32 million homes and account for two out of five homeowners in the country.

  83. 583

    RE: Blake @ 579 – I wonder if the big house issue is changing tastes or reduced relative wealth/income? Stated differently, if you compared inflation adjusted disposable (exclusive of housing) family income then and now, what would you find?

    Earlier this year I did have a person at an open house mainly object the house was too large, but he was probably close in age to the end of the boomers. Too large is a rather unusual objection.

  84. 584

    The NWMLS data is out for July. Here’s a stream of consciousness report as I read through. All are King County SFR unless indicated otherwise.

    Actives:

    New listings are down exactly 500 units. The rush to the exits is clearly on! /sarc.
    Total active is just under 4,400, which is an increase of about 150 YOY (and down from last month).
    The median list price is up by $37,950 YOY, but YTD only $4,000. The mean list is well over $1.1M!
    Time on market up almost 20 days YOY to 65.

    Pendings:

    YTD up by 1,141.
    Median price up by only $2,000 both YOY and YTD.
    Average time on market up 12 days YOY to 35.

    Solds:

    Volume up barely YOY to 2,635.
    Median down by 19k to 680k. Mean down about 15k to $815,271. (Note extreme difference from mean active listings.)
    Average time on market up 10 to 28.

    Finally, I haven’t gone through and done an area by area comparison, but as to the Seattle Times article one thing they are missing in their reporting of Condo inventory/pricing is that Seattle has a lot of townhouses, including new construction. Those are reported as SFR. So the available inventory for buyers interested in condos is in effect higher, but those townhouse sales are pushing down the SFR price data in the Seattle area.

    Data from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed and calculation of differences not done by NWMLS.

  85. 585

    RE: Blake @ 577
    Blake: You and Your DNC are TOTALLY OFF Base on the MASS Shootings

    Collecting DNC contributions at a MASS killing site [the day after] instead of collecting charity money for the VICTIMS or praying for them, then blame Trump? Hey, when Bernie’s nut machine gunned down the GOP baseball team the GOP didn’t blame Bernie. This is a horrible time to “Blame Trump” one bit. Obama had 32 MASS killings on his watch, but did but did the GOP ever blame Obama out of political devilishness?

    This country suffers from undiagnosed psychosis mental illness and violent video games, constant iPhone use, are solutions and its all nut just gun control, Hades, the criminals all get guns anyway…

    You and your DNC are turning a MASS killing into a Circus…horrifying.

  86. 586

    Seattle Condos Plummeting in Price

    I just got this piece from the Seattle Times in my email [the URLs are pay per view]:

    “… NEED TO KNOW
    Condo shoppers are enjoying a summer in the driver’s seat as King County prices drop and the available choices rise sharply. Developers are dangling bonuses to lure buyers. When it comes to house sales, though, markets in outlying counties keep heating up as King County keeps slowing down. Take a neighborhood-by-neighborhood look at what’s happening….”

    Sounds like Erik sold “just in time”. KC House sales are slowing down too…

  87. 587

    RE: softwarengineer @ 585 – As long as we’re going to talk about that, I blame both sides. On gun control the Republicans don’t want to do anything and the Democrats don’t want to do things that make sense (or at least want to do a lot of things that don’t make any sense).

    Trump has his disgusting and annoying rhetoric, but the Democrats have theirs that contributes too. Their open border free healthcare for illegal immigrants agenda during the debates is again setting up fears of the type of situation that Europe had with the Syrian refugees. That situation not only lead to similar violence in Europe, but also affected elections there, including Brexit (and possibly even Trump). The last thing Democrats should want is appearing soft on the border if they want to win the states Trump carried in 2016. But hey, they’re now guaranteed to carrying California! /sarc

    On the European violence situation: https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/living-as-a-refugee-in-germany-under-the-shadow-of-violence-23356

  88. 588

    Young Adults and Homelessness are the Left Behind Now

    Is this a perfect storm for more mental illness in America too? UK reminds me of Seattle demography.

    https://www.infowars.com/poll-89-per-cent-of-uk-gen-zers-say-their-lives-are-meaningless/

    The stock market may swing down 700 points DOW [its up 200 points today BTW]…the YOY data is the only reliable tracker. This does not make Chinese Tariffs an overall bad choice because of one day trading data and Chinese currency meddling. I haven’t seen any increases in import prices on things I buy. Have you Bubbleheads noticed any 6 month increases?

    I vote my pocket book, everyone should….the rest is less important to “Family First” anyway.

  89. 589

    This is one of my favorite commentaries on the Democratic debates, and also one of my favorite candidates. The first 2-3 minutes deal with what I was referencing in my prior post.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwlB8udp0bs

  90. 590

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 587
    From My UK URL on Young People Left Behind:

    “…While by no means the only reason, many have argued that the emergence of mass shootings in the west by young men can partly be attributed to the nihilistic malaise that many teenagers grow up experiencing….”

    Yes Kary, we need more party unity and less demon circus. Hades, young folks flock to me in Covington, we think alike. They know I’m on their side. Its not Dem vs Rep either; its middle aged vs youth/aged…

  91. 591
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 584:

    Finally, I haven’t gone through and done an area by area comparison, but as to the Seattle Times article one thing they are missing in their reporting of Condo inventory/pricing is that Seattle has a lot of townhouses, including new construction. Those are reported as SFR. So the available inventory for buyers interested in condos is in effect higher, but those townhouse sales are pushing down the SFR price data in the Seattle area.

    Data from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed and calculation of differences not done by NWMLS.

    Thanks for the overview Kary!

    Is there any way to break out townhomes from SFH? I wonder what the percentage is now vs a year or two ago. In my searches, townhomes seem to be the things that are sitting the longest lately. And had the most ridiculous (IMHO) bid-ups last year.

    Standard 3/2.5 1,400/sf townhomes in my area were listing at 600-650k last Feb/March and closing over 700k. Now they miiiiiight sell at 600k. (Shout out to SB reader Kenmorem who timed his sale perfectly last year IIRC.)

  92. 592

    RE: uwp @ 591 – If I get time I’ll try to see what I can do, but it’s not information the NWMLS breaks out. And with the system there’s no way I’ll be able to get any historical information on actives or pendings–only solds.

  93. 593
    Marc says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 584

    The continued decrease in median price is in line with my expectations but the decrease in inventory is not and by a long shot. I was fully expecting inventory to continue it’s march upward driven by sellers fearing continued price declines but that does not seem to be happening.

    In fact, it’s fair to say I was adamant that inventory was going up significantly and my whole narrative was built on it. If that does not transpire, then my theory would seem to fall apart and the price declines I was expecting won’t pan out. In that case, prices should stop falling at some point relatively soon. I was already expecting that to a certain degree because the YOY comparisons in the fall should be much easier than the first half of the year. If this inventory trend holds, we might see some decent, but still fairly modest, price increases before the year is out.

  94. 594

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 587
    Being Blunt and Honest is Irritating to Progressives

    I’m like Trump too, I say it like it is not out of both sides of my mouth….call me an irritating voice that CLEARLY flashlights real data and causes and effects, I’m certainly not an attorney type…LOL

    Most engineers think like me too. But I do understand why. But when ya need a good attorney to fight legal dragons you need court demure and [IMO] phony behavior to sway a judge…that’s true too. Use the right sword to defeat your devil dragons in life….or ya lose.

  95. 595

    RE: Marc @ 593 – I’m still not to the point of even “admitting” there have been value declines, as opposed to price declines. More specifically I’m referencing the point I’ve made in the past that bidding wars resulted in some properties selling for above FMV and impacted the median. I’m about to get off that soapbox, however, because there’s not a bright line on when bidding wars were reduced to more normal levels–multiple offers still happen, but not to the same extent. It’s one of those things no one had good data on.

  96. 596

    RE: Marc @ 593
    I Hope You’re Right for Your Sake

    But the fundamentals [avg Seattle work wages] don’t back up your theory. The Uber Rich 1% that could still invest in high price real estate [no data to back it up BTW] may be the duct tape to hold up the house of cards, but IMO its wishful thinking until manufacturing high wages with stable pensions return to Seattle again.

  97. 597
    S-Crow says:

    Agent APB – why in the world are you naming August 30th as the closing date? I anticipate transactions having a rough day in recording on that Friday and competing with all the refi’s going on. It’s Labor Day weekend!

  98. 598

    Oops….The News is so Detracting Lately Affecting Seattle Home Values I Forgot SWE’s Monthly Investor Report, Here it Is…Late…LOL

    Jul 0.18% 0.21% 1.44% 1.64% (2.09%)
    YTD 1.46% 6.34% 20.23% 21.43% 12.03%
    Last 12 mo 2.75% 8.14% 7.97% 2.11% (2.97%)

    The data is Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks. The 2.8% upgrade [from last year’s 2.2%] in long-term CDs is a YOY 36% increase for the savers’ interest. Long-term Bonds at 8%+ YOY is a bit bigger than American Stocks [interest rate declines lately caused the sudden long-term Bond Bump]…about 8% too. Long-term Bonds took the throne from American stocks YOY….but 8% YOY either investment isn’t chump change either. Foreign stocks suck, I’ll be blunt. The trending for the future [YTD data] is fog. Use your personal Ouija Board….LOL

    Meanwhile we ferret through the real estate data for glimmers of hope for either the buyers or sellers….but that’s not a retirement nest egg choice I’d make….its fog. Viva patient investor waiting for the possible future buy bargains? Or hold on to your purchase for the safer long-term possible returns? You make the choice, good fishing.

  99. 599
    Grayson says:

    NWMLS data has Seattle metro areas down -6.21% YoY with smaller, but more Seattle central areas like Central Seattle, Madison Park, Capitol Hill -15.14% YoY. Here is the data:
    https://www.nwmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/KCBreakouts.pdf

  100. 600
    kenmorem says:

    By uwp @ 591:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 584:

    Standard 3/2.5 1,400/sf townhomes in my area were listing at 600-650k last Feb/March and closing over 700k. Now they miiiiiight sell at 600k. (Shout out to SB reader Kenmorem who timed his sale perfectly last year IIRC.)

    i cringe for the new owner on our previous place:
    last sold: $790k
    redfin estimate: $642k

  101. 601
    richard says:

    RE: Marc @ 593 – My guess is that the sellers hold off listing their house and are expecting a full blown house price recovery due to the downward trend of interest rate. But it is hard to tell since a recession usually go hand in hand with aggressive FED rate cut. The inventory is up to how fast the sellers’ psychology can shift (and how effective is their agents’ persuasion).

  102. 602

    RE: S-Crow @ 597

    Has the new eRecording system made your life any easier? I hear no more running to the County and cut off extended from 2:30 to 3:30.

    My August is 27th. My July’s all closed on time, but I did move the 31st of July to the 30th just in case as the new system was still having quirks and I had appointments there set up for August 1. But it closed on time.

    Did you have any in the new eRecording system that carried over to the day after closing? I heard there were many but none of mine have.

  103. 603

    By uwp @ 591:

    Is there any way to break out townhomes from SFH? I wonder what the percentage is now vs a year or two ago. In my searches, townhomes seem to be the things that are sitting the longest lately.

    Here are some quick numbers–all Seattle addresses (not necessarily Seattle city limits).

    There are currently 313 non-condo townhouse listings, and another 199 in some state of pending.

    458 sold between May and July, 2019 with a median price of $707k and 14 CDOM median.
    445 sold between May and July, 2018 with a median price of $746k and 7 CDOM median.

    The unit square footage size difference was minor. The median sold price in 2018 was 8K over list and in 2019 it was 7k over list, but 2019 median was under the original list price. So there were price more price reductions in 2019.

    If I ran those same criteria for condos . . .
    762 sold between May and July, 2019 with a median price of $475k and 18 CDOM median.
    827 sold between May and July, 2018 with a median price of $519k and 8 CDOM median.

    Again no significant difference in unit size, but the 2019 median price was equal to list, where 2018 was about 23k over list.

    So both are taking a hit in price (condos a bit more as a percentage) and CDOM, but only the condos took a hit in volume. As to the relative size of the townhouse market in Seattle, it was about 19% of the SFR during that three month period in 2019, so it is significant.

    Data from NWMLS sources, but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  104. 604

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 601 – I’d be interested to know what S-Crow has to say too, but I believe Snohomish County has had electronic recording for several years now, so comments on each counties’ systems would be appreciated.

  105. 605
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 602

    Thank you, Kary.
    I appreciate your presence here!

  106. 606
    Deerhawke says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 584:

    _________
    Finally, I haven’t gone through and done an area by area comparison, but as to the Seattle Times article one thing they are missing in their reporting of Condo inventory/pricing is that Seattle has a lot of townhouses, including new construction. Those are reported as SFR. So the available inventory for buyers interested in condos is in effect higher, but those townhouse sales are pushing down the SFR price data in the Seattle area.
    __________

    I think that you have put your finger on an important issue here Kary.

    What accounts for a lot of the inventory sitting on the market? Townhouses.
    What SFH segment is seeing price cuts from list price? Townhouses
    What is pushing down the median SFH price? Townhouses.
    What is causing SFH DOM figures to rise? Townhouses.

    I do not build for this market segment, but a lot of townhouse builders were ramping up in 2016-17 to try to beat the imposition of the HALA tax. Prices kept rising so they felt they could pay a lot for the land, pay a lot for the build, etc. If they got to market during 2017 or the first quarter of 2018, they thought they were geniuses.

    But since that time, they have gotten hammered. Part of it is that there are more and more 10, 11 and 12 foot wide units (no typo there) that have no on-site parking.

    A lender approached me about helping with a project that was in trouble. Six 2+2 unparked, attached townhouse units of 1180 sf — 11 feet wide. The builder’s proforma said he would get $800K per unit. For a little while, maybe it would have been. But now that the suds is off the beer– $599K to $625K.

    I think we have another year of this stuff coming on the market. Eventually builders will realize what current prices are. They will also understand that they have to pay $20-25K per unit as a HALA tax. Count on that market slowing wayyyyyy down. Eventually you will have single family homes playing a larger part in median SFH pricing.

  107. 607

    By Deerhawke @ 605:

    Eventually you will have single family homes playing a larger part in median SFH pricing.

    I was following you until the end. Given that in Seattle any new stand-alone SFR (a/k/a “a house”) most likely replaces an old stand-alone SFR, while townhouses might replace one house with 3-6 SFR townhouse units, it seems like over time the percentage of townhouses in Seattle will increase, and play a larger role in the median, pushing it downward. So it’s not all wealthy people avoiding the city to avoid the income tax. ;-)

    As I recall one of the statistics gatherers (perhaps the one showing on SB) already groups townhouses with condos. That probably makes a lot of sense.

    My issue with these townhouse units is more their non-traditional construction materials, particularly their “siding.” As you probably recall, I’m more into traditional materials. Combine that with a lot of the smaller builders having warranties that are seemingly written to avoid any builder liability, and I see some unhappy homeowners going forward.

  108. 608

    By Deerhawke @ 605:

    What accounts for a lot of the inventory sitting on the market? Townhouses.
    What SFH segment is seeing price cuts from list price? Townhouses
    What is pushing down the median SFH price? Townhouses.
    What is causing SFH DOM figures to rise? Townhouses.

    I went looking for some numbers to support these claims, expecting to find them. Surprisingly I didn’t always.

    As to the percent of townhouses that make up active listings, that is significant. About 23%. I would have guessed less.

    As to pushing down the median–yep–my prior post shows that.

    As to price cuts, the townhouses are relatively insignificant (about 10k on median and 12k on mean). The total market is about 24k on median and 33k on mean. Note though these numbers can be misleading due to relisting. CDOM picks that up when relisting, but there is no similar stat for original list price. A new listing immediately resets that stat.

    But DOM and CDOM–that’s the shocker. For the entire Seattle SFR market the mean and median CDOM for active listings is 68 and 49. For townhouses, 58 and 48. Given that almost half the townhouses are new (built 2018 or 2019), I find that number shocking. I wonder if the builders are only listing one unit and then listing another when they do a price reduction, keeping the other unit off the market for 90 days (soon only 60 days) to reset the CDOM clock?

    Data from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  109. 609
    don says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 606

    Also, narrow units’ [11′ ??] stairways take up ~30 % of the floor area. Deep landings can create small useable areas off the stair, but it’s a sad loss in most cases.

  110. 610
    Matt P says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 607
    In my time searching for a townhouse, I can confirm that yes, most of the new buildings only list 1 unit at a time. Once one goes pending, the next one pops up. I visited several where there were multiple available but only one listed on the mls.

  111. 611

    By Matt P @ 609:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 607
    In my time searching for a townhouse, I can confirm that yes, most of the new buildings only list 1 unit at a time. Once one goes pending, the next one pops up. I visited several where there were multiple available but only one listed on the mls.

    That’s only half of it. The issue is do they rotate the unit listed to hide the price reductions. List unit A, then unit B after a price reduction, then unit C after another reduction, then back to unit A after 90 days has passed.

    Only listing one unit of each type (e.g. 2 bedroom, 3 bedroom) is nice because that way the builders of large projects don’t clutter up the listings with too many listings. They just need to get people out to the project and then once there they will presumably learn of the other units. It does though have downsides, one of which is understating active inventory. Hiding price reductions in the published stats is another (although agents can easily find the prior listings if they look).

  112. 612
    JayJay says:

    I been a long time reader of this blog, with the King County market finally slowing down and crazy bidding wars, I have been thinking of finally buy a home with enough time to view and put down offers rather than the short 3 day list-show-offer review that was the norm in Seattle/East side areas.

    As a newbie to real estate and a hopeless millennial, I really like the Kirkland area for my first home (promixity to work, restaurant, city,). However houses in Kirkland are generally a lot higher than other areas (except Bellevue/Seattle DT). Folks I know have been recommending the Leschi area as there are lots of new developments and soon to be better commute choices when the light rail gets built. I have not been following housing developments until recently such that I am just gathering information while preparing for buying a place. I am not as familiar with Leschi area or the pro/cons of Leschi vs. Kirkland and am looking for inputs.

    Cheers

  113. 613
    Matt P says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 610 – Anyone can easily find them. Just google the address and there they are.

  114. 614
    Blake says:

    By Deerhawke @ 605:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 584:
    What accounts for a lot of the inventory sitting on the market? Townhouses.
    What SFH segment is seeing price cuts from list price? Townhouses
    What is pushing down the median SFH price? Townhouses.
    What is causing SFH DOM figures to rise? Townhouses.

    So glad my wife and I sold our Seattle townhouse 5 months ago!! $320k for 650 s ft! crazy…

  115. 615
    Blake says:

    btw: I can’t recall seeing bond rates plummet this fast since at least 2008! Big money running into bonds in the US and all around the world this morning.
    The US 10 year is now at 1.64% , down .4% in 4 weeks and from 3.0% a year ago!
    3 month notes are stuck around 2%, so big yield curve inversion.

    Overseas the Swiss 10 year hit negative 1.0%… German -.6%… Dutch -.4%… insane.
    We scratch our heads, but with $15 trillion now invested in negative earning bonds they are just focusing on capital preservation and not losing too much. Maybe they’re wrong… maybe they aren’t?
    Bloomberg headlines:
    U.S. Stocks Slump as Bond Surge Warns of Recession
    Treasury 30-Year Yield Closes In On All-Time Low
    Trump Steps Up Fed Attack, Calls It Incompetent and Urges Cuts
    Opinion: Cash Is Hardly a Haven From Negative Yields

  116. 616
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Marc @ 593 – Although inventory appears to have leveled for now, DOM is still increasing. Recent stock/bond market turmoil will also be a factor.

  117. 617

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 602
    There’s No More Usable SFH Building Lots

    There hasn’t been enough land to build SFHs Seattle for 50 Years…thus we switch to condos [which makes local traffic congestion even worse than SFHs] that no one wants… the over-building in Kent clogs our freeway access and is making driving worse and worse, just to get to the freeway…I have to drive 5 miles to get my mail at the post office [someone smashed my HOA kiosk to pieces and we’re waiting forever to get it fixed], just that short local drive on Kent-Kangley with Maple Valley and Black Diamond SFH over building congestion can take about an hour R/T…

    I just don’t drive unless I have to….its depressing local congestion out there. I put about 3000/mi a year on my car now…

  118. 618

    RE: Blake @ 613
    Stay Away From Bloomberg Blake

    They are not a reliable neutral MSM source, either is Forbes…too NWO and OVERPOPULATION politically orientated in my book. Try the WSJ or Washington Post…the NYTs is slanted too…

    I have trouble finding any URL that isn’t politically motivated and slanted lately.

  119. 619

    RE: don @ 608
    Yes don

    A 1200-1500 SF Rambler has as much livable space as 1800-2000 SF two story structures. The Rambler consumes more roof lumber though and its $/SF is higher too..

  120. 620
    Blake says:

    By softwarengineer @ 616:

    RE: Blake @ 613
    Stay Away From Bloomberg Blake

    They are not a reliable neutral MSM source, either is Forbes…too NWO and OVERPOPULATION politically orientated in my book. Try the WSJ or Washington Post…the NYTs is slanted too…

    I have trouble finding any URL that isn’t politically motivated and slanted lately.

    Dude… you posted a link from InfoWars earlier!!!??? LMFAO!!!

  121. 621
    Any says:

    Tanking yields (and thus mortgage rates) are keeping prices steady for now. Rumors of job cuts and hiring freezes ahead out there with recession fears. If a recession hits + unemployment rises (from here it can really only go one way), coupled with baby boomers downsizing and millennial debt loads, housing prices would stay roughly where they are AT BEST, but could easily fall a good deal further. No reason whatsoever to rush into a housing purchase in the next few years. While low rates largely helped juice housing for the past 5-6 years, there’s just not much lower they can drop to propel prices even higher.

  122. 622
    richard says:

    wow. Desperate vancouver realtor is angry with unqualified buyer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C39MeF9Gasg

  123. 623

    RE: richard @ 620 – Is there some point at that video that you want us to watch? It’s boring as hell.

  124. 624
    Jeff says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 621

    Ironic you would be one to point out boring posts. Can’t you just scroll down the way some folks recommend doing for your posts?

  125. 625

    By Jeff @ 622:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 621

    Ironic you would be one to point out boring posts. Can’t you just scroll down the way some folks recommend doing for your posts?

    Don’t demonstrate your stupidity. There is no way to scroll through a video to find some unknown point that Richard thought was interesting. If you cannot see a difference between scrolling down a webpage and a through a video . . ..

    Strike that. Thank you for demonstrating your stupidity. I don’t even know why I bother with this website. The stupidity of the trolls is rampant and overwhelms the site.

  126. 626
    richard says:

    US economy sliding into recession…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Occ4uzVlapk

  127. 627
    kenmorem says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 623:

    By Jeff @ 622:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 621
    Strike that. Thank you for demonstrating your stupidity. I don’t even know why I bother with this website. The stupidity of the trolls is rampant and overwhelms the site.

    what an arrogant POS you are kary. if i ever met you in person, it would be enjoyable for me, but probably not for you.

  128. 628
    Sfrz says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 625 – he was unable to tamp that nasty personality down for even a couple days before the insults bursted out of his brain onto the keyboard. Pitiful.

  129. 629

    RE: Blake @ 582
    What’s Your Governor Inslee Doing to Make Homes FAR More Ecological, Smaller and More Affordable?

    This would impact the Carbon Footprint FAR more than his ridiculous plans to ban plastic straws and such…

    Its like that Jimmy Hendrix Baby Boomer Song, “Absolutely Nothing”. In Maryland its the same high rent conundrum mess and the rich Ubers block affordable housing just like Seattle does. We’ve become greed devils and worship the real estate Baal god, while the 20-30 year olds eat cake?

  130. 630

    RE: Blake @ 618
    I Told You I Have Trouble Finding Good URLs

    You’re right, I’ll be careful to identify the source as political motivated if I can….but in many cases there’s no choice but use NWO Bloomberg and MSNBC, etc….but not if I don’t have to…

    The more neutral news sites are rare too, we have become a brainwashed country….I find better news in the blog comments lately….LOL….journalism has become Progressive slanted mostly though and too one sided too…the Never Trumpers put out garbage too IMO. You can tell its garbage when most all the comments call it a joke…

    Hey, my blog comment on our Governor Inslee at Yahoo news got 50 thumbs up and 6 thumbs down, I’m a celebrity….LOL….I suggested he curb OVERPOPULATION and drain FAR less sewage waste into Puget Sound killing off all the Orcas, instead of encouraging more “unlimited” chain migration OVERPOPULATION and more sewage plants [they put ’em in Kent BTW] with horrifying CARBON FOOTPRINT growth…

  131. 631
    Beano says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 628

    All good points. The environmental left is utterly full of shit in ways that are 10x nefarious than “deniers.”

  132. 632
    Jeff says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 623

    If you haven’t already, you might consider starting a YouTube channel. Like the Vancouver Real Estate agent Owen Bigland, who you ironically find boring, YouTube is a much better forum for ranting, and I actually enjoy Owen’s rants from time to time, as I imagine I might enjoy you riffing in video format ever now and then. The main thing I look for in Ownen’s videos is what’s on the table in the background which is always changing. My theory is the more alcohol, the worse he’s feeling about the Vancouver market despite that he’s always trying to stay positive about it.

  133. 633

    RE: Jeff @ 629RE: Sfrz @ 626RE: kenmorem @ 625 – Thank you all for proving my point about the stupidity of the trolls on this site. You three are all trolls.

    But hey, if you think asking for the common curtesy of specifying a point in a video (something I always try to do) is equivalent to just scrolling past a page you are really incredibly bad at analogies.

    There are only about five other people worth reading on this site, and the signal to noise ratio extremely low. No wonder Tim and most other people have lost interest in the site.

  134. 634

    Seattle Real Estate Prices Should Go Way Up With 0% Mortgage Loans Like Europe

    Along with a MASSIVE increase in federal tax collections needed….

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/20-year-mortgages-hit-zero-for-first-time-in-danish-rate-history/ar-AAFtb2Z

    BTW, what Bubblehead would put their money in a negative interest bank anyway? A complete idiot?

  135. 635

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 630
    They Identify You as That Crazy Kary Who Hates Obamacare

    If the moss only grows on the north side of trees, now Kary’s to blame….I know you are middle ground and independent, you made a grave mistake criticizing Obamacare high rates…LOL

    Just let it pass Kary. I appreciate your inputs..

  136. 636

    RE: softwarengineer @ 628
    BTW, Some of the Best Real Estate News URLs Comes from the UK

    The MSM in England still has Populist Brexit sources they can’t stop…I go there frequently.

  137. 637
    Jeff says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 630

    For someone who’ll reply to just about any post on Seattle Bubble, it’s again ironic and too bad you only find five participants worthy of the attention you lavish so generously on all us “stupid trolls”, who are simply trying to find ways of letting you know we agree with your concern about the signal to noise ratio being rather low. Many seemingly reasonable people here think you’re part of that problem and wish you would simply adjust your posting habits based on this feedback rather than double and redouble down on insults to intelligence, which seems to be your go to rhetorical tool when you feel attacked and singled out.

  138. 638
    Jeff says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 632

    Dang you make a lot of assumptions about folks politics based on so very little. How do you square this latest statement of yours to Kary: “They Identify You as That Crazy Kary Who Hates Obamacare”, with the fact that I don’t particularly like the Affordable Care Act because it’s a huge give away to the insurance medical industrial complex, and I also wrote in Ron Paul in 2012?

    If you’re paying attention, the reason some are going after Kary is generally because he, as yourself, dominates the comment section of this forum. The only reason I don’t go after you, is that you seem to enjoy having this fact pointed out to you, wear-as Karry at least seems to care even though he’s fighting it tooth and nail.

  139. 639
    JustNoise says:

    In the next episode of As the Seattle Bubble Turns…

  140. 640
    Deerhawke says:

    Tim. You may have noticed that the comments have devolved toward the more than normally irrelevent and angry. Kind of like a bunch of kids who are bored in the back seat and have not been fed since Exit 6.

    Are we there yet? Any chance of an update on the Monthly Stats to get things back on track?

  141. 641
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 637 – King County breakouts are pretty interesting. Sales and prices are generally both up in the south end; down in Seattle; and mixed in the eastside submarkets.

    On the seller activity side, King county new listings are down 500 YOY. (I think a little more MTM.)
    This is pretty uniform, even south end areas with rising sales and prices.

    I suspect a number of potential sellers/ move up buyers are reacting to all the talk about pricing trends. Many learned last time that when things are tough on the exit side, you can put a relatively modest expense/effort into making your existing place a better place to live, and just put it back on the shelf for another 7 years.

    Or it could be our fabulous economy. Would be nice to hear what our realtors think.

  142. 642

    RE: Jeff @ 635
    You’re New at the Bubble

    Kary emailed the Obamacare opinion years before you came aboard [that’s when his SB rabid dogs attacks started IMO] . You’ll get experience like Kary’s in a few a more years. Welcome aboard your blogs are fine to me. I believe it was around 2016 or 2017 when we were discussing Obamacare destroying the healthcare in America and adding to the Seattle real estate affordability. Check Tim’s archives for the exact Kary quote and better yet, the subsequent blog effect.

  143. 643

    RE: JustNoise @ 636
    Shut That Dam_ Conservative Voice SWE Up, Whatever It Takes

    LOL….you Open Border Party folks have me rolling on the ground in laughter…I never feed trolls and my blogs contribute. You think no inputs make you more intelligent and complaining about the ones [you disagree with] doing all the inputting are evil deplorables. I feel sorry for you.

    Hey another blog contribution from SWE on Seattle Traffic from my email from the Seattle Times Friday:

    “…Weekend traffic alert: Don’t go anywhere. Ha! It’s nearly that bad, with road work and light-rail construction expected to snarl traffic on I-405, I-90 and the Aurora Bridge. Know the details, check traffic before you go … or just stay home with a good book instead….”

    The Seattle Times reading Seattle Bubble? SWE recommended reading instead driving your car in the current traffic mess too…we agree apparently…

  144. 644
    ohd1122 says:

    I’ve been watching SFH activity in the Kirkland area, specifically the “low end” segment of 98034 (by price tier, not geography). Homes are sitting on the market much longer than 1-2 years ago. There’s a handful of homes that have done at least one price cut, some more. That being said, it’s far from transformed. There are also examples of homes/townhomes being priced competitively and going pending in short order. My hypothesis is that the demand curve is shifting downward a little bit so that what was a hot price point last year is maybe a bit high this year. But this is far from an established rule and might just be a function of specific units rather than anything else.

    On a completely different note, I’ve been monitoring two condos for sale in a friend’s complex, which is in a very good location in capitol hill. A condo was listed last summer for what I thought was a nutter butter price but went pending quickly and sold slightly above asking. This year, the same 2Br/2Ba layout but slightly nicer was listed at about 1% under the sold price of last year, and has dropped price an additional 10% and is still sitting on the market. Another slightly larger unit has been on the market for ages listed at (IMO) a nutter butter price and continues to languish.

  145. 645
    Joe says:

    RE: Any @ 619

    I would agree that upside potential in RE is limited, and the majority of risk is to the downside. Specifically, there is extreme risk of recession right now. 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported for 2Q, and it’s clear S&P 500 profits will be DOWN from last year’s levels. This hasn’t happened for a long time.

    Also see a recent Hussman Funds market commentary indicating that employment levels are more than likely headed for a big dive simply because certain leading indicators such as business orders have been falling quite rapidly.

    Ask yourself, how do companies respond when profits are falling? Easy answer: they lay off. How can that be good for RE prices? Demand for housing will fall. At the same time, many personal and business loans will go bad, causing future increases in LT interest rates.

    If you take out a large loan to buy RE today, you risk being stuck with that property when prices are falling and interest rates are rising. This is the worst time to plunking down big money on RE.

  146. 646
    Eastsider says:

    Negative interest rate in mortgages in Denmark! You can expect Danish home prices to decline over 10 years LOL.

    Many investors fear a substantial crash in the near future. As such, some banks are willing to lend money at negative rates, accepting a small loss rather than risking a bigger loss by lending money at higher rates that customers cannot meet.

    A Danish bank is offering mortgages at a 0.5% negative interest rate — meaning it is basically paying people to borrow money
    https://www.businessinsider.com/danish-bank-offers-mortgages-at-negative-interest-rates-2019-8

  147. 647
    sfrz says:

    When making a decision to live on the Seattle side or the East side, make your decision AFTER reading Safe Seattle blog. Here’s the latest. UGH.
    “The commute home to West Seattle on the bus has been less than enjoyable since the viaduct closure. Yesterday Metro tried a reroute of the C line to avoid Seahawks traffic on 1st Avenue. Unfortunately, that plan backfired. A woman on my bus (likely homeless based on appearance) was so upset she missed the last stop downtown that she pulled down her pants and pooped all over in the middle of the overcrowded bus. In the screaming and panic of the other passengers, the driver stopped the bus in traffic and opened the doors, and she ran off. The remaining passengers were then forced to ride the rest of the way in the filth and stench of what remained.”
    For me, the decision is easy. That body of water makes a WORLD of difference.
    .

  148. 648

    RE: Blake @ 542
    Trump Can Get Us There

    But we’ve become “do nothing” service workers at like Google at low pay. Its going to take 5-10 years to teach America how to do real skilled work with real wages in Manufacturing Engineering….welders and high skilled machinists need years of on the job training too. This doesn’t just pop out of a college toaster like a Pop-tart.

    Immigration of low skilled poor makes it worse…less corporate money to train and develop these on the job skills, especially with higher corporate tax rates.

  149. 649
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 642:

    Also see a recent Hussman Funds market commentary indicating that employment levels are more than likely headed for a big dive simply because certain leading indicators such as business orders have been falling quite rapidly.

    Check out the returns on Hussman Funds, then ask yourself why you would ever listen to anything he has to say.

    His flagship fund (HSGFX) has returned -7% ANNUALLY for the last 10 years.

    10 years ago, if you took $10,000 and put it in Vanguard’s US Total Stock Market Index you would now have over $36,000.

    If you instead took your $10,000 and thought to yourself, “You know what, I would love to have the insights and skill of John P. Hussman managing my money.” You would now have roughly $4,800. Congratulations.

  150. 650
    Pedro says:

    Mentions of Seattle slowing amidst heartland boom https://t.co/HblcXshpJD

  151. 651
    JWoods says:

    RE: uwp @ 646
    Very well said about Hussman. He, and several other financial pundits often quoted in the forum, look like complete fraud to me.

    “Pessimists always sound more intelligent, but it’s the optimists who make money”.

  152. 652
    Eastsider says:

    RE: JWoods @ 647 – I disagree. He and many other financial pundits would have been right had the Fed not intervened in the market in the past decade. EU junk bonds have lower interest rates than UST today. Without central bank intervention, this would not have occurred in a functioning market. You guys remind me of those “genius” investors during the dot com craze who later lost their shirts.

  153. 653
    biliruben says:

    And I would have lept the grand canyon except for stinking gravity. If you are an investment expert unwilling or unable to acknowledge the existence of the fed, you are an f’in idiot, and anyone who listens to you: ditto.

  154. 654
    don says:

    RE: biliruben @ 649

    Good analogy.
    I do think there would be a considerable expense in swimming motions to make it that far even without gravity, though. ;)

    Since about 1913, investors ignore the fed at their peril.

  155. 655
    Eastsider says:

    If you want to jump off the grand canyon because you expect someone to lift you up, go ahead. It works until it doesn’t… Or we would never have the great depression and the housing crash. The next crisis will come. Guarantee.

  156. 656

    Like Stephen King’s Book “It”

    “It all floats downstream”…but how about the stream of traffic on our clogged freeways? Input from the Seattle Times this morning to my email:

    “…We may have survived the viaduct closure, but the Seattle Squeeze is not over yet. Transit riders heading to West Seattle and Burien have been some of the most impacted by changes. Last week, Metro tried an experiment to improve trips for riders. How did it go? Let us know….”

    What percent of us ride the bus? 2%? We almost all rely on cars, so this “experiment” with commuting changes by Metro is either a moot point, or a horrifying disaster and we’ll never know?

  157. 657

    RE: Jeff @ 635
    Jeff, Use Your Buddy “Sleepy Joe” Latest Gaffe

    “We Put Truth Over Facts”….how can you block facts and call it truth?

  158. 658
    uwp says:

    By softwarengineer @ 652:

    What percent of us ride the bus? 2%? We almost all rely on cars, so this “experiment” with commuting changes by Metro is either a moot point, or a horrifying disaster and we’ll never know?

    Actually, about 50% of the downtown Seattle workers ride the bus/train. Only ~25% drive alone.

    https://commuteseattle.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2017-Commuter-Mode-Split-Survey-Report.pdf

  159. 659

    RE: Eastsider @ 651
    Great Opinion Blogs This Morning From You and Everyone Else Too

    And to say this has nothing to do with the Seattle home price prediction in future is like saying gas cars don’t need gas…

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-extend-plunge-as-geopolitical-tensions-heat-up-2019-08-12

    Most of the “Recession” scare rumblings lately are day to day sources…I’d say the NWO “free American beer” party is over with American taxes spent on everyone but America…its causing “HORRIFYING” tail spinning in foreign stocks. American stocks are suffering from some sales slides, but YOY at +8% yield isn’t chump change and more long-term data is needed are its all fog on YTD prediction with day to day data.

  160. 660

    RE: uwp @ 654
    What percent of Seattle Workers Don’t Live in Seattle? The $700K average “in city” price means Uber rich, not working Joe. Ya still need mostly hotel workers, burger flippers, etc, in Seattle. Where do they live? Homeless tents? How many live in Seattle and don’t work?

    I see a raw data void as big as the Twilight Zone. But go with the truth [whatever that is} over facts….LOL

  161. 661

    No More Burger Flipping Jobs in Seattle

    It was drink straws, now a Burger ban to fight climate change on the horizon now?

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/university-bans-burgers-help-save-114859056.html

    We must all pitch in to save the world except the biggest polluters; China and India…making it all a moot point anyway? They’re making chemical artificial meat [toxic?] already now, hey, this reminds me of Solyent Green, where we recycled human cadavers for food there too….LOL

  162. 662

    RE: Blake @ 612
    I’m Proud of You and Your Wife Blake Did

    You either timed it right or got lucky, but you courageously made the “life changing” economic move and that’s admirable in Seattle. Give your wife a pat on the back from SWE too ;-)

    I live in a 1500SF Rambler floor plan and 3 bdrms, one bdrm converted to a Man Cave bar and although the place is a bit big for one person….650SF is way too small for my office and kitchen too…its not perfect for me, but its home. We all need elbow room too.

  163. 663

    Uber Rich Losing Money

    No one uses it?

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Uber-posts-5-2-billion-loss-and-slowest-ever-14291494.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headlines&utm_campaign=sfc_techchronicle

    The 5 kids across the street from me range in age from 10-28 and all live with mom and dad still, only one is working at COSTCO and dad at Starbucks [recently laid off from MSFT]…none of the kids drive a car and their 04 Dodge Caravan has 200,000 miles on it [still runs like a top though]…their newer 011 Focus sits dead with a bad Ford transmission. Kias are the favorite car at Glenbrook.

  164. 664

    RE: uwp @ 646
    And the Financial Advisors Went to Harvard and All Got Ivy School MBAs

    Educated idiots in my book. We need to teach America how to work in high wages again, not how to burn money.

  165. 665
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 643:

    Negative interest rate in mortgages in Denmark! You can expect Danish home prices to decline over 10 years LOL.

    Many investors fear a substantial crash in the near future. As such, some banks are willing to lend money at negative rates, accepting a small loss rather than risking a bigger loss by lending money at higher rates that customers cannot meet.

    A Danish bank is offering mortgages at a 0.5% negative interest rate — meaning it is basically paying people to borrow money
    https://www.businessinsider.com/danish-bank-offers-mortgages-at-negative-interest-rates-2019-8

    Wow, that is nuts. I see why economists always said deflation (or disinflation) was much worse than inflation. How can people and businesses survive in such an environment for long?

    US 10 year’s dropped another .10% this morning and are down .48% in just 30 days. Seems like the central banks have lost control and the market is speaking loudly.

    The Financial Times had an interesting piece last week about the various options the central banks are now considering to basically GIVE money to people to spend, now that QE won’t work anymore and we are near the zero bound in rates. Back in 2009, Australia gave their citizens a bunch of money and it worked out OK. Problem is… I’d probably pay off debt rather than buy anything!

    Desperate times…

  166. 666
    Blake says:

    This just in…
    Lower Mortgage Rates Aren’t Boosting U.S. Housing
    The residential real estate market is less affordable now than anytime since before the financial crisis
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-12/mortgage-rate-declines-aren-t-boosting-u-s-housing?srnd=premium

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing a housing conundrum. The market is in the midst of a 15-month slump, with home price gains and sales having slowed dramatically and permits to build new dwellings slumping by 6.6% to the lowest level in more than two years. This despite a big drop in market interest rates thanks to the Fed’s dovish pivot earlier this year.

    Of course, a recession would pull down prices and solve the affordability problem (a National Association of Realtors index shows housing is less affordable now than any time since before the financial crisis). But a recession is exactly what Powell hopes to avoid by lowering benchmark interest rates that are already near historic lows. The thing is, though, 30-year mortgage rates are already at a very low 3.75%, down from almost 5% in November, and housing hasn’t responded. Applications to purchase a home have declined for four weeks running according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association data. It’s not clear that even lower rates will help.
    … (end quote)

    Folks… this is why markets “correct!” Reset ahead…
    Reminder: The last three times the Fed STARTED cutting interest rates a recession was already upon us!
    https://images.app.goo.gl/WEBpMGSFfnfRqbsz5

  167. 667
    Eastsider says:

    By Blake @ 661:

    US 10 year’s dropped another .10% this morning and are down .48% in just 30 days. Seems like the central banks have lost control and the market is speaking loudly.

    US 10yr yield is very close to historic low. I believe it is now lower than all recessions in the past 50 years. IMHO postpone any big purchase (house) for the time being and definitely deleverage now when you still have time(?)…

  168. 668
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 663RE: Blake @ 662 – I know this is pure speculation, but if the recession is indeed already happening, how long before the U.S. starts to “feel” it?

  169. 669
    richard says:

    Fuel for the Next Mortgage Bust?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W3AbpoS7Lw

  170. 670
    Blake says:

    By JustNoise @ 664:

    RE: Eastsider @ 663RE: Blake @ 662 – I know this is pure speculation, but if the recession is indeed already happening, how long before the U.S. starts to “feel” it?

    Hard to say. Right now the business owners and planners are the ones who are scared and starting to cut back, but consumers are still strong and spending their money (…or money they are borrowing). I don’t see any retreat in the trade war and Brexit looms in October, so I’ll stick with my recession call for 2019. There’s a lot of fear in the markets and the US consumer – as always – is blissfully unaware for now. Things can change quickly.

  171. 671
    Blake says:

    Here’s some interesting stuff I was reading this past weekend…

    https://ritholtz.com/2019/08/winner-takes-all-applies-to-stocks-too/
    (This) study looked at 62,000 global common stocks from 1990 to 2018…
    The top 0.5%, 306 companies, accounted for 73% of global net wealth (stock) creation. The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for ALL net global wealth creation.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-only-six-stocks-that-matter-1437942926
    Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500.

    Six firms— Amazon.com Inc., Google Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., Netflix Inc. and Gilead Sciences Inc. —now account for more than half of the $664 billion in value added this year to the Nasdaq Composite Index, according to data compiled by brokerage firm JonesTrading.

    (FYI: The NASDAQ consists of 3,300 stocks! 6/3,300 = 0.18%)

    “It makes me cautious because I’ve seen it before,” said John Carey, portfolio manager of the $5.2 billion Pioneer Fund, whose No. 2 holding is Apple. “There are some features of this narrowing market that do resemble what happened” in the late 1990s tech bubble.

    On the eve of the dot-com crash in March 2000, the top six stocks in the S&P had accounted for all of the index’s market-cap gain that year, according to Mr. O’Rourke.

    And… Global stock markets are now officially SHRINKING!!.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/unusual-trend-is-providing-key-support-for-us-stocks-citi-says.html
    Buybacks are giving stocks a boost — but there’s a twist.

    With share repurchases among companies near highs, with the group having broken its record-making buyback streak in the first quarter of 2019, global stock markets are now officially shrinking, according to Citi Research.

    That unusual trend — referred to by Citi strategists as “de-equitization” — is serving to prop up U.S. stock prices at a moment where investors are still hesitant to back the multiyear rally in U.S. equities, says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist and managing director at Citi Research.

    “I think it’s an important support for the stock market at a time when investors have generally been suspicious of equities through most of this bull market,” Buckland said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “Really, the main marginal buyer of the public equity asset class has been companies, not your regular investor.”
    (end quote)

    Read that last sentence once more…

  172. 672
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 663

    Germany has negative interest. Norminal morgage rate is 1.5%. Real mortgage rate is negative. Frankfurt and Munich real estate skyrocket recently. Interest has real impact on housing price. If mortgage become 2% (let’s say). A one million house interest is 20K a year, plus $8000 King county socialism tax. Thats about $30k cost a year. equal to $2500 cost on going cost for a SFH in KC. Recession, no big deal. I can always sublet my basement to people lost their job.

  173. 673
    Lulu says:

    RE: Blake @ 662
    Reduction of interest will bring another refinance boom. If mortgage dropped from 4% to 2%, that will free up a lot cash flow to millions of American home owner. Definitely a good to refinance if not buying.

  174. 674
    Eastsider says:

    Argentina’s stock market just crashed. The Merval index in Buenos Aires plunged 50% (in dollar terms) in one day after the resounding defeat of the incumbent President by a leftist/socialist. Be careful what you wish for.

  175. 675
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Lulu @ 668 – Yes, interest rate has real impact on home prices, as we witnessed in 2018. That said, it is financially irresponsible and potentially ruinous to overpay for a home. You should not just look at mortgage payments. More importantly, you should look at fundamental values. Would you buy a million dollar artwork if someone offers you a 0% loan?

  176. 676
    Blurtman says:

    Well, the doomsters are whipping themselves into a frenzy. And fundamental value is a myth.

  177. 677

    RE: Blurtman @ 672
    Yes Blurtman

    The Day to Day data is always anomalous…the DOW was surging up again at 600 points today just because Apple was given a get out of jail card until Dec 2019 over iPhone tarriffs? Its day to day “fog” and not long-term trend ‘reliable” data driven. The YOY DOW data for August should clarify the data interpretation.

  178. 678
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 671:

    RE: Lulu @ 668 – Yes, interest rate has real impact on home prices, as we witnessed in 2018. That said, it is financially irresponsible and potentially ruinous to overpay for a home. You should not just look at mortgage payments. More importantly, you should look at fundamental values. Would you buy a million dollar artwork if someone offers you a 0% loan?

    Why do you think people are overpaying house. What’s the construction cost+labor cost+land cost. material cost is pretty much inflation adjusted, labor cost is inflated in NW. Buildable land is scarce in Seattle. I see so many people rent other’s basement in Seattle. The number of shadow buyer population is huge. There is supply vs demand inbalance in Seattle still.

  179. 679
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 674 – that’s why recession is needed to force people sell their houses to increase the supply and in the meantime demand will be weak due to fear of losing job. All we need is a recession to change the supply and demand situation, you got it?

  180. 680
    JustNoise says:

    My mortgage broker texted me this morning that she’s getting notifications of possible rate increases coming shortly…

  181. 681
    richard says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 676 – typical salesman’s scare tactic :)

  182. 682
    Blake says:

    By JustNoise @ 676:

    My mortgage broker texted me this morning that she’s getting notifications of possible rate increases coming shortly…

    Ha hah ha ha!! Hilarious!!!
    What, is the mortgage in Mexican or Argentine pesos??

  183. 683
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Blake @ 678RE: richard @ 677 – I asked her where the notifications were from. She said “marketing sources from our lenders. They give me a heads up when there is possible movement. It allows me to lock loans before any large increases.” BUY NOW!!!!

  184. 684
    Cap”n says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 679

    Hearing the same story from my lender. Offered a mortgage rate while the ten year was at 2.10% and now that we are close to 40 basis points lower on the ten year yield, the prospects of holding on to that great initial mortgage rate are in serious doubt. Lock now!

  185. 685
    Eastsider says:

    By Lulu @ 674:

    Why do you think people are overpaying house. What’s the construction cost+labor cost+land cost. material cost is pretty much inflation adjusted, labor cost is inflated in NW. Buildable land is scarce in Seattle. I see so many people rent other’s basement in Seattle. The number of shadow buyer population is huge. There is supply vs demand inbalance in Seattle still.

    You could have used the same arguments in 2005-2007…

    If you can only rent your home for less than the carrying/opportunity cost, your home is likely overpriced. This is the situation in Seattle today.

    Also, without QEs, we won’t be having this discussion today.

  186. 686
    Eastsider says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 679 – “BUY NOW” because of large increases in mortgage loan rates? Don’t you think prices will also decline bigly? Perhaps you should POSTPONE your purchase and wait for that 10% price drop LOL.

  187. 687
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 681 – even realtor will admit now, rate close to 5% like 2018 will kill the market. supply and demand is a smoke and mirror cold dish now. need to be more creative to figure out a new way to explain why the house is properly priced.

  188. 688
    Blurtman says:

    Clearly the RE industry should encourage the police to beat the crap out of waffling home buyers, a la the OWS protestors. Consume and Obey!

  189. 689
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 682 – When interest rates move towards zero bound (or negative!), prices become unstable, unpredictable, and volatile. I.e. super-sensitive to interest rate movement and other factors. It’s like divide by zero in math… ;)

  190. 690

    Seattle Area Livability Issues/Concerns Today:

    “….MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019
    Yakima Fruit Market
    Bus-lane plan threatens popular ‘family farm’ in Bothell
    Julia Doutre, of Kenmore, shops with her 13-month-old son, Dallin, at the Yakima Fruit Market yesterday in Bothell. The decades-old, family-run business alongside Bothell Way could be disrupted by Sound Transit’s plans for a bus lane that would claim much of the narrow parking strip that separates the produce from the busy highway. Owners Karin and Stuart Poage are worried, and so are their customers. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Two people were killed and three others hurt in a shooting late last night in Tacoma. Police are trying to sort it all out; here’s what we know so far.

    The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX has hit Southwest Airlines hard. It had “bet the company on the MAX.” Now the airline has proposed language in the contract with its flight-attendants union that would grant it the flexibility “to fly more narrowbody aircraft types.”

    Seattle officials urged commuters to choose any form of transportation other than driving alone during the so-called “Seattle Squeeze.” For the most part, they listened. But now, some are feeling bait-and-switched as travel times on bus routes to West Seattle, White Center and Burien have more than doubled — and they say they’re done trying to “grin and bear it.” ;-)

    How can you keep your smartphone safe from hackers? Scammers can take advantage of tasks like checking a bank balance or charging a phone at a public USB port. Here are steps you can take to protect your phone. And there are ways to reduce your exposure to fraud from scam artists, with a warning that the risk for being scammed may increase with age….”

    When you travel don’t bring your dam_ iPhone, it causes you to lose touch with reality around you:

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-08-reveals-emotional-journey-digital-detox.html

    I’m heading out to Flaming Geyser State Park today to gaze at Green River and old cedars….I found a coal cliff there too….and I don’t carry an iPhone to gaze at instead of the scenery around me..try it.

  191. 691
    Eastsider says:

    By JustNoise @ 664:

    I know this is pure speculation, but if the recession is indeed already happening, how long before the U.S. starts to “feel” it?

    This morning 10-2yr yield inverted. Such occurrences have always preceded recessions in the past. So recession is here/coming. You can “feel” it this morning as global stock markets react to the inversion. The rest you can study the history…

  192. 692
    biliruben says:

    Seattle officials urged commuters to choose any form of transportation other than driving alone during the so-called “Seattle Squeeze.” For the most part, they listened. But now, some are feeling bait-and-switched as travel times on bus routes to West Seattle, White Center and Burien have more than doubled — and they say they’re done trying to “grin and bear it.” ;-)

    Can you supply a link? We are looking at West Seattle to buy, but won’t if travel times on buses are really that bad.

  193. 693
    Any says:

    By JustNoise @ 679:

    RE: Blake @ 678RE: richard @ 677 – I asked her where the notifications were from. She said “marketing sources from our lenders. They give me a heads up when there is possible movement. It allows me to lock loans before any large increases.” BUY NOW!!!!

    Rate movement is determined by the bond markets. Your friend and their friends can’t see the future on this. Huge drops in bond rates last night point to rates dropping more, not going up.

    Besides, as was mentioned, if rates were to go back up in, prices will drop further. The low rates are the main thing that have stabilized prices now.

  194. 694
    biliruben says:

    Nevermind. Found it. Short-term whining.

  195. 695
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 680:

    If you can only rent your home for less than the carrying/opportunity cost, your home is likely overpriced. This is the situation in Seattle today.

    Also, without QEs, we won’t be having this discussion today.

    That is the situation in flourishing cities everywhere, and all the time. How old are you that you are not already aware of that? In addition to shelter, storage, and potential appreciation, many people value controlling the property they inhabit; to determine the micro-uses and layout; to lavish the care or lack of care that they desire. They will and do pay money for that value. If that is not you, then the value is less to you than it is to the market. Maybe it’s time to move on to something you can accomplish.

    Also, without traffic and police, I could do 110 on the I-90 bridge during rush hour. Still, I never wake up with an expectation that there will be no traffic and police during rush hour; and I never use my shocked, bitter surprise about that to excuse why I had every right to assume that fast trip that never actually happens should have happened.

  196. 696
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 690:

    That is the situation in flourishing cities everywhere, and all the time. How old are you that you are not already aware of that? In addition to shelter, storage, and potential appreciation, many people value controlling the property they inhabit; to determine the micro-uses and layout; to lavish the care or lack of care that they desire. They will and do pay money for that value. If that is not you, then the value is less to you than it is to the market. Maybe it’s time to move on to something you can accomplish.

    I don’t disagree. However, it is my humble opinion that you are taking an insane amount of financial risk to purchase a home in cities like Vancouver and San Francisco. Seattle is near if not on that list. Why ‘own’ when the economic value of renting is far more superior? Remember elevated prices are not a guarantee, especially in a deflationary world.

  197. 697
    Chief says:

    RE: Lulu @ 674

    What’s a shadow buyer?

  198. 698
    Chief says:

    RE: uwp @ 654

    This data is propaganda. Anytime you see “Ride Alone” you know it’s spin. The methods to collect this data and overall methods you cited are weak and easily gamed. You can design this survey to get a desired result, very easily.

    It defies logic and common sense to claim there are more people taking transit than cars. Insulting everyone’s intelligence including your own.

  199. 699
    Chief says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 685

    Moved to Seattle 1.5 years ago – it’s clear Seattle is at war with cars. The vast majority of people use cars and cars are faster, much faster for most people, than most buses/trains. Thus cars remain the choice. It’s clear the master plan here is to not make transit great, but make driving a car a nightmare. All self inflicted.

    Any traffic issues here were intentionally created that way. Traffic might be the best issue/topic for a politician to raise money. Make it worse, raise more money. Of course politicians are never held to account for plans/investment….solution of course, more money.

    Removing the Battery Tunnel and 3-4 downtown exits doubled in/out commute time downtown. That’s by design folks. Ever notice how only 3 streets have volume, the rest of the streets are empty. Not only that, these streets are designed to be single file – ONE LANE!!! This makes modest volume look HEAVY. All engineered that way. Only the sheep don’t see it.

    Taxing cars $10 for each visit to downtown is coming soon. Their plan is working. Mo problems, mo money.

    The city knows they are headed into 2030 and 2040 where rail ridership numbers will fall way below projections – they need to defend their $55 billion cash cow/tax levy. the plan is to go to war on cars.

    Even though the future of transport is automated, individual, electric transport vehicles.. using ROADS.

    You’d think Seattle would embrace the opportunity to define the future of transport – no, instead they are planning to build $55 billion of rail (18C. Tech), until 2041!!!!

    Seattle has been a huge let down from a standpoint of – it’s not nearly as smart or innovative as it seemed from afar. It’s clear to me know, Seattle was a logging/fishing cow town until Bill Gates invented Microsoft and Bezos showed up. A few geniuses bestowed themselves to Seattle, the rest of the people here are pawns…..truly pawns.

  200. 700
    Eastsider says:

    Yields on U.S. 10 year treasury note have collapsed over last 9 months. On 11/8/2018, it was 3.24%. Today it is at 1.58%. This is a drop of over 50% in 9 months.

  201. 701
    Chief says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 686

    The inversion doesn’t always predict a recession. Nope.

    But it’s true a recession is always preceded by an inversion.

  202. 702
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Any @ 688 – Of course we can’t see the future. That’s why we’re here! :)

    I was only commenting on the experience of the roller coaster ride with my mortgage broker. Who, I believe, is actually a kind woman trying to do the best she can for me (perhaps this is naive of me?). Her latest text about rates was “FYI, the market rallied after Pres Trump delayed the tariffs. We are good!” So I guess any notifications she was getting of rate increases has stopped.

  203. 703
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 691 – don’t need to be humble. he need a recession to clear the traffic and his house-value-worship mindset.

  204. 704

    By Feb of 2009 we knew we were at the end of the steep decline. By end of 2016 we knew we had maybe 12 to 18 months left on the upswing. On Jan 27, 2018 we knew the party was over..as expected. Not a surprise. We continue to be floundering for any direction since. We know that 2020 is the wild card year as is always the case during a Presidential Election Campaign year.

    Just a recap. Nothing new and nothing that wasn’t “as expected”. Markets either perform “as expected” or under or over expectations. It is never expected to always go one way or the other…or to stay the same. Forces that move markets will continue to be strong, and increasingly so, until after the Presidential election. What happens next depends on which Party wins.

  205. 705
    whatsmyname says:

    By richard @ 675:

    RE: Lulu @ 674 – that’s why recession is needed to force people sell their houses to increase the supply and in the meantime demand will be weak due to fear of losing job. All we need is a recession to change the supply and demand situation, you got it?

    But have you considered the asymmetric consequences to the lower tier in this same situation, where many a semi-literate person will become not only less able to purchase, but also less able to pay rent and stay indoors. I’m sure you don’t need that.

  206. 706
    Lulu says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 695
    You can make your own judgement on economy by just pay attention on traffic. During 2008-9 recession, the traffic is much better than today. Traffic jam is another indicator of economical boom. In Seattle, it is just getting worse not better. More people move into metro Seattle area, can’t afford live close to work, have to live further and commute long. I don’t see a crash of housing near Seattle Belleve and Kirkland. Usually, crash starts from outer ring toward inner ring. Just pay attention to traffic , you can sense the recession and housing crash. Now, I don’t see it.

  207. 707
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 697 – inner leads outer, there is a delay .

  208. 708
    richard says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 696 – more homeless in the street, less demand to buy a house that neighborhood. this is all normal dynamic in supply and demand. If supply can not be improved, recession will help cut demand.

  209. 709
    richard says:

    700!
    home owners are like frogs in a slowly boiled pot and they are losing the last selling window to rake in top dollar. It will not be a happy thing to see their equity going away…
    Just checked redfin, a lot of houses are in contract with listing price above 1 million. seems a lot of buyers believe they got some kind of sweet deals or maybe they are just rich and don’t care about price.

  210. 710
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 700
    10 year treasure yield reaches 1.58% now. inflation is 2%, real yield is -0.42%. Fed will have to cut interest twice to avoid yield curve reversal. I see another QE if recession ever occur. Mortgage rate will down again to the 3% level from 4%. This will improve housing affordbility.

  211. 711
    Erik says:

    I’m saving all my vacation time at work for when the recession hits. I’m gonna need time off to Buy, Remodel, refinance, rent, and repeat(BRRRR). If I get it right, I should be retired 7 years after the next recession if it’s another big one.

  212. 712
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 701 – nobody knows what next qe gonna bring. reinflating house price as what many ppl here wish for ? runaway inflation and social unrest? if qe is so good and effective, why fed try to raise rates in the first place?

  213. 713
    Blurtman says:

    By richard @ 703:

    RE: Lulu @ 701 – nobody knows what next qe gonna bring. reinflating house price as what many ppl here wish for ? runaway inflation and social unrest? if qe is so good and effective, why fed try to raise rates in the first place?

    Rates were raised ostensibly to cool off an overheating economy. But it also gave the Fed room to lower rates when the economy slowed down. Lowering rates fuels asset price inflation, but home prices are simply the result of supply and demand. Demand can decrease, stay the same, or increase when rates are lowered. Rates are not the only factor. It only comes down to the appeal of the granite countertops and fresh baked cookies.

  214. 714
    SnP says:

    RE: Lulu @ 697

    Unfortunately recessions are rarely called while we are in one. I truly believe our economy peaked in December 2017. The stock markets really never could push past December 2017s numbers. The writing is VERY clearly on the wall that we are in a recession (or if you want to think it will start soon, whatever). Traffic…. people still have jobs, layoffs happen as a result of the economy cooling, so it has to cool before layoffs happen. They will. Look at Boeing right now. Nothing goes up forever.

    That being said, we bought a house this month. We underbid. Had a super pleasant experience. We got every item we looked for in a house (even location and lot size!). So I am very curious to see the numbers this month.

    If your sole goal is call tops and bottoms of markets you’re playing a hard game to get ahead in. You just have to do what you is right for you at the right time and not treat your primary residence as a get-rich-quick plan. Get rich through hard work, saving, and investing, the old fashioned way, it’s less stressful.

  215. 715
    Eastsider says:

    By SnP @ 705:

    If your sole goal is call tops and bottoms of markets you’re playing a hard game to get ahead in. You just have to do what you is right for you at the right time and not treat your primary residence as a get-rich-quick plan. Get rich through hard work, saving, and investing, the old fashioned way, it’s less stressful.

    Thumbs up! Homes are primarily shelters. Unfortunately they have become investment vehicles in recent years. That is a key factor driving up prices for ordinary homebuyers. On the flip side, when stock markets crash, home prices will follow shortly.

  216. 716
    Lulu says:

    RE: SnP @ 705
    Congratulation for your new purchase. I hope that will server your family and life style well. I did some kitchen remodel recently. Though the final price far exceed our original estimate. But we got what we dream of. Wife is so happy with it. We end up spending more time in the kitchen: food, conversations and entertainment. I am so surprise that cost of material and contractor labor cost in Seattle. When we talk about bubble of Seattle house, we have to look into where these bubble coming from. Seattle is an expensive place to live based on NUMBEO. It is even more expensive than many europe cities. We are not too far from NYC, SF and LA. We need to blame Amazon , MSFT for paying these programmers too much. And blame the city council for passing the min wage to $15/hr. I look at my restrurant bill and just realized that in addition 10% tax, there is a 4.8% min wage tax, plus a 20% tip , we end paying 35% more for the already over priced food. That’s why we did our kitchen remodel. Everything is expensive here in Seattle: gardener, day care, plumber. If you complain housing bubble, you have to look at other expense. We can’t buy a Cleveland price for housing and demand Amazon and MSFT pay at the same time.

  217. 717
    Ohd1122 says:

    By Lulu @ 697:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 695
    You can make your own judgement on economy by just pay attention on traffic. During 2008-9 recession, the traffic is much better than today. Traffic jam is another indicator of economical boom. In Seattle, it is just getting worse not better. More people move into metro Seattle area, can’t afford live close to work, have to live further and commute long. I don’t see a crash of housing near Seattle Belleve and Kirkland. Usually, crash starts from outer ring toward inner ring. Just pay attention to traffic , you can sense the recession and housing crash. Now, I don’t see it.

    Traffic jams are indicative of a lot of things. Poor transportation infrastructure, road design, etc.

  218. 718
    Lulu says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 708

    I miss the 2009 Seattle traffic. My average speed based on my Garmin GPS was 45 mph at the time. Now, it is showing 35 mph. Of course, the city has shrunk the regular lane and put two HOV toll lanes. empty toll lane and more idle speed on regular lane only cause more pollution in the air.

  219. 719

    RE: Eastsider @ 686
    Its Not a Recession In My Opinion

    Its a lag between developing reliable American manufacturing skills again and ending unfair trade….this is a mess and its already hit the auto manufacturers, they sold 2,000,000 less cars YOY at insanely high prices too…the Kia Sorento sells for $26K-$41K MSRP range, Buick prices. The Hyundais are an arm and a leg too. When did South Korean engineered cars become Cadillac priced?

    The % of South Korean cars catch fires [Kia and Hyundai] is worse than the 1% of Pinto gas tanks exploding:

    https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Kia-Driver-Describes-Car-Going-Up-in-Flames-504181651.html

    We’ve become brainwashed to ignore the South Korean million exploding car safety issues or lie about them and just pay too much for subpar/unsafe cars we hate? They sell us junk at high prices. Period.

  220. 720
    richard says:

    RE: SnP @ 705 – underbid by how much? I saw people negotiate down by only 10K for a million dollar home and think they got a good deal.

  221. 721
    richard says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 704 – overheating economy? when people spend more and more in housing, their other spending is curbed which will hurt economy. I don’t believe our economy is that good. Who knows what FED real purpose is? They are robbers in suits. Don’t believe fancy words from their mouth.

  222. 722
    SnP says:

    RE: richard @ 711

    It had been on the market for 7 days, we under bid by 7%.

    About a third of homes I had favorited to monitor on RedFin were sold for less than asking unless the owners had already dropped the prices. I’d say 1/3 under, 1/3 over, 1/3 for ask. Though I have been following the $575k and below SFH market in southwest Snohomish county.

  223. 723
    richard says:

    RE: SnP @ 713 – 7% sounds decent. I guess seller get a nice profit too. it is hard to get this reduction in Bellevue where I am monitoring.

  224. 724
    Brianna says:

    Seattle home prices still dropping as Tacoma home values rise, study finds
    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-home-prices-still-dropping-as-tacoma-home-values-rise-study-finds

  225. 725
    Blurtman says:

    By richard @ 721:

    RE: Blurtman @ 704 – overheating economy? when people spend more and more in housing, their other spending is curbed which will hurt economy. I don’t believe our economy is that good. Who knows what FED real purpose is? They are robbers in suits. Don’t believe fancy words from their mouth.

    Hey, what about student loans?

    “I have put off having children, marrying, or purchasing a home due to the high costs of student debt repayment. Regularly, I contemplate selling everything and living in my car to help free up money to pay off the debt sooner.
    (Melissa – Granbury, Texas)”

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/08/life-deferred-student-debt-postpones-key-milestones-for-millions-of-americans.html

  226. 726

    RE: biliruben @ 692
    Its Seattle Times and its pay per view. That’s why no links, but Google it, other news agencies may be printing it free anyway.

  227. 727

    Recession and Real estate Predictions

    Have become political, or better yet, have always been political views. The YOY 8% growth of the DOW has slowed the spike up some. Where is going now YOY? Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, the Aug MOM DOW report may clear the fog? Once we get into school season and holidays again we can track with better consumer spending on board….

    Don’t let haughty “Trump-like realtors” talk you into grabbing it up ASAP and don’t let the Open Border Party try to fool you into thinking the economy is crumbling under Trump either….be more moderate in your predictions with real raw data and YOY too. Bank stocks are strong today, another fact that makes this the opposite of 2008. I’m smiling this morning with my Yuban, I’m glad I’m ready for retirement now and don’t have to worry about all my money mostly in stocks anymore, but the formula works. Just buy stocks for the decades or real estate for that matter [my 1999 Seattle Home went up 218% since I bought it]…the Obama Quantitative Easing caused the American stocks to sky rocket 350% in about a decade…welfare to the banksters and I took advantage of it too.

  228. 728

    RE: Blurtman @ 725
    The Harsh Reality

    When bills exceed income and there’s no lying about it either…50% of Milenials get financial help from their Baby Boomer parents, last I heard. College educated just became another MASS lineup for whatever jobs left or unemployment. Why pay full rate for systems engineers when ya get ’em from India at $9/hr says Boeing MAX 8.

  229. 729

    RE: Erik @ 711
    Erik Joins SWE in a Retirement Disneyland Soon?

    Branch out for units bought directly from sellers and banks, with no auctions driving the prices up too high anyway. Make friends with the average Joe incomes still renting, find out when landlords are foreclosed on. Negotiate the sale ASAP with like the Bank VP, the tenants are great help too, they don’t want to be evicted and either do the banks like ’em evicted [especially if they pay their rent], you can use them as pawns, a seamless contract with just the owner’s name changed. Hades, it they’re good tenants, let them stay a few years? Beats remodeling right away?

    The sellers get past due rent back after sale and keep their credit rating under a foreclosure short sell, win/win…start filling the $CASH$ bags now to bounce…a week or even a day late and the sale goes down the toilet. Keep persistent, I know I don’t have to remind Erik of this, he’s the King of Persistence.

    Options, options….

    Don’t wait for a Recession either Erik, these units exist today, you just haven’t stumbled on to ’em yet?

  230. 730

    RE: whatsmyname @ 695
    Even empty Freeways Are Unsafe Too?

    When I’m cruising through Kansas City at 70 MPH in my rental Dodge Charger on empty freeways I sometimes forget Seattle driving habits, like whirling my head 360 degrees constantly and not depending on the rear view mirrors. An occasional car is drifting in my blind spot. Always drive defensively, always…

  231. 731
    richard says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 725 – I saw similarities between millennials and young people in Hong Kong, that is economic oppression. Hong Kong young people are so angry not only because the political oppression from China regime but also because there is no hope for them in housing. Here in America, millennials are burdened with debt and the economy prospect is also dark. The global elites, no matter they are communist or capitalists, exploited too hard and leave little breathing room and hope for little young guys. Look at Seattle, as I said thousand times, Chinese elite together with US elites grabbed properties like no tomorrow and don’t give young people any chance to become middle class. Our bureaucrats the interest group welcome them in the name of non-discrimination as long as you have money. SAD! The fate of millennial here will be the same as those of hong kong protestors.

  232. 732

    The 737 Max 8 Coverup

    Needs more retired engineer whistler blowers, from the FAA too apparently.

    https://interestingengineering.com/boeing-737-max-8-likely-grounded-for-rest-of-2019-after-new-concerns-raised

    The fun goes on and on….and nobody wants Trump’s FAA director job now, my gosh they have to approve the NWO MAX 8 without reliable American style audits…

    This whole mess now needs a DOJ/FBI probe?

  233. 733

    RE: richard @ 731
    Interesting Analogy

    I agree with it, but would much prefer “class” oppression in America vs. China. Religious freedom is much more protected in America, etc, etc…

    As bad as America is, its the best we got….but you’re right, it could be much better.

  234. 734
    Everyone says:

    SWE: This isn’t your “blog.” It is a comment section for a real-estate-related website. Please take your bizarre ramblings somewhere else. Might we suggest a psychiatrist’s office?

    Signed,
    Everyone

  235. 735
    northender says:

    Interesting article that suggests housing won’t be negatively impacted by the next recession

    https://www.curbed.com/2019/8/15/20807042/recession-housing-market-interest-rates-home-prices

  236. 736
    richard says:

    RE: northender @ 734 – i doubt any of the experts quoted in this article predicted last housing crash.

  237. 737

    They’re All Fleeing Seattle to Rent in Auburn Now

    “…As developers and landlords cater to people fleeing Seattle’s expensive housing market, South King County — long a bastion of affordable housing — is seeing steep rent increases. But “what works in Seattle isn’t necessarily going to work in Auburn,” warns Auburn Mayor Nancy Backus. See what the South King Housing and Homelessness Partners plan to do….”

    https://mynorthwest.com/666262/washington-affordable-housing-nlihc/

    Auburn caters to low incomes and $1200/mo rent, so the units are limited and price controlled too..

  238. 738

    RE: Eastsider @ 691
    If You’re Car Dealer Trying to Sell $30,000 Kias I Pity You

    If you’re a soy farmer selling to China I pity you too. The rest of the economy [98%?] isn’t selling cars or soy…why must we serve the world cheap stuff or the economy dies? Should be the other way around to hold down our inflation.

    Health care, same conundrum, 5% of the jobs in this country suck about half the GDP in insurance costs…we’re focusing on relieving the possibility of Recession by making the costs go up?…LOL

  239. 739

    Psychologists Now Have a Mental Illness Name For Chronic Debt Addiction

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/whats-behind-my-compulsive-spending-and-how-do-i-stop-it.html

    Its treatable, but it will take time and counseling. My name for it is consumer brainwashing.

  240. 740

    RE: Blurtman @ 725
    Yes Blurtman

    Baby Boomers aren’t getting very many grand kids lately, ask SWE. My brother-in law has three single “childless” daughters around 30-35 YOs and these adults are all Uber rich Seattle City Marina owners too. One of the daughters just got pregnant, but is having the kid single with no spouse sharing estate planning…smart kid. My daughter will get her house for a $1 from me, instead of college money. I’m putting it just in her name too and believe me, her significant other is a great mate and doesn’t rock the boat when there’s free rent. One good way to keep a Millenial trustworthy in a relationship is make it free rent dependent….LOL….SWE is devious ;-)

    In 10 years that house is the approx the same as $250,000 in rent, etc…she didn’t pay. And it includes price appreciation of the house too. They say a college education is like $1M more income in a lifetime, so is giving them a house instead of paying for the 2nd half of their college. Think out of the box.

  241. 741

    Yes Their is a Similarity Between Hong Kong Riots and Seattle?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/worried-hong-kong-residents-are-moving-money-out-as-protests-escalate-11566120603

    As the Portland Open Border Party Antifa terrorists attack Right Wing Rallies [with legal permits folks] today, the media blames it all on these legal Right Wing protestors [Hong Kong folks for Democracy?] with permit papers, not Antifa [Chinese Police?], that just busted in waving baseball bats…meanwhile, the Hong Kong riots over Populism vs. Establishment Fascism is causing money and Uber rich to get the Hades out of Hong Kong…its called “unrest”.

    The Uber rich are leaving the “Seattle Titanic area” similarly as local NW riots and violence break out? Stay tuned, we’ll know more soon? The recent fire bomb attacks on ICE facilities in the Seattle area is ominous too…increased violence by Antifa supporters? Whether you support either political side is not important at all, compared to the risk it puts on the Seattle real estate economy?

  242. 742
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: richard @ 731 – I wonder what a world would look like if a US citizen could only own one residential house, and if only US citizens could own houses?

  243. 743
    richard says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 741 – a world you just described. I understand many interest groups love (Chinese) Money. But I think they put their interest on top other ordinary fellow countryman. A lot of Chinese money inflow is not clean. They are from corruption and the big wealth transfer from ordinary citizen to US and China elites through globalization. If this is world you desired, I understand because you may be one who benefit of this. I just want to wake up Americans who a oblivious of the long wealth robbing process which maybe people like you are afraid of.

  244. 744
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 742RE: richard @ 742RE: richard @ 742

    I believe majority of SFHs in King County are owned by Americans with hard earned clean aft-tax money.

  245. 745
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 743 – so ? you want to deny there is no huge Chinese money inflow in to Seattle market and their impact is small ?

    Xi jinping is doing a good job to control capital outflow but FED is trying very hard to re-inflate the house price. Let’s see what will happen.

  246. 746
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 744RE: richard @ 744RE: richard @ 744

    I don’t think Fed is trying to re-inflate the house price but to stable the already inflated asset value (stock, housing, bond). Next recession will be different from previous one. This time, it is the FANNG stock.

  247. 747
  248. 748
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 745 – I am afraid you underestimate FED’s ambition. If the house price can not keep rising, there is no story to tell to the perspective buyers. Realtor will lose the very effective FOMO weapon. At this high price level, stable market is not acceptable since flat market concept itself will collapse the market.

  249. 749
    QA Observer says:

    “We have the strongest economy ever and the lowest unemployment ever! The Fed should cut interest rates at least 100 basis points and may be resume QE. We are considering a temporary payroll tax reduction.”

    Nothing to see here.

  250. 750

    RE: Blurtman @ 688
    LOL Blurtman

    They even sell “OBEY” tee shirts lately, the kids love them I noticed.

    SWE’s Yuban Break This Morning Tues Morning News Affecting Seattle Area Livability Today:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, August 20, 2019
    Inside T-Mobile’s Device Lab
    Promise of 5G future comes a step closer with T-Mobile’s quirky new lab
    T-Mobile’s Grant Castle shows off Mr. HATS (Head And Torso Simulator) in the company’s Device Lab in Bellevue. Inside, simulated Northwest rain falls, and robots forcefully drop phones. The former warehouse has been transformed into a hub where T-Mobile develops and tests technology in its bold race toward 5G. Peek inside with us. (Photo: Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    What if you had a few seconds of warning before The Big One hit? An earthquake-warning system that would send smartphone alerts to Pacific Northwest residents just got a boost from the feds, putting it much closer to reality. Meanwhile, get ready to rumble with our earthquake preparedness guide.

    Five people are recovering after an out-of-control dump truck careened down a steep Pioneer Square street yesterday, hitting a pedestrian and other vehicles before slamming into a Subway sandwich shop. “It was carnage down there,” said one man who heard and felt the crash from inside the building. [Dump Truck Ban in the Horizon Now?…LOL]

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren is bringing her presidential campaign to Seattle. She’s hosting a town hall event Sunday, making her the first top-tier candidate to hold a public campaign event here.

    We bring you an interruption in our regularly scheduled weather programming. Today we’ll be basking in toasty sunshine, but tomorrow may send you digging for your sweater and umbrella. Here’s what’s behind this short interlude. Things should dry out in time for the weekend so you can enjoy a free day at state and national parks (we have a few favorites to suggest.)

    If you’re traveling near Labor Day, know this: Airlines are expecting record crowds and pinpointing which days will be busiest. This comes as we’re seeing a rash of passengers flying with mini horses. There’s a perfectly reasonable explanation. …”

    And, ya gotta get through the horrifying “Seattle Squeeze” traffic problems….gardening at home, fix the back yard instead of driving to parks? I’m heading to Flaming Geyser State Park today, its always ten degrees cooler there…the back roads through Black Diamond aren’t in Summer road construction zones either.

    I see they’re cracking down on west coast cities for neglecting homelessness crisis….a bit late, but improvement. I’m hoping they clean it up and prevent theoretical west coast camping fires and subsequent smoke pollution in Seattle…I’m sure the rain showers we got this summer helped too. Its nice to wake up to real blue skies today, with no brownish tinge like last year. I could smell the smoke in my house too last year…great improvement, so far so good.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.