Around the Sound: King County alone in price drops and big inventory gains

Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, and support the ongoing work on this site by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.

I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let’s have a look at that. Here’s the latest update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

June 2019 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $695,000 $515,000 $376,500 $391,657 $344,000 $402,500 $380,000 $417,750
Price YOY (2.8%) 0.7% 7.3% 10.6% 5.8% 5.1% 11.8% 7.1%
New Listings 3,487 1,480 1,751 491 618 207 273 397
New Listings YOY (10.7%) (12.2%) (10.4%) (17.8%) (2.2%) (12.7%) 7.1% (6.6%)
Active Inventory 4,625 1,841 1,945 611 569 350 449 654
Inventory YOY 24.4% 14.4% (7.9%) 3.7% (14.4%) 2.6% 6.1% 7.2%
Closed Sales 2,718 1,215 1,521 432 553 186 213 326
Sales YOY (1.5%) (1.7%) (8.6%) (5.5%) (0.5%) (11.0%) 0.9% (4.4%)
Months of Supply 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.0

King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales (sales rose in Skagit though). In most of the other Puget Sound counties, sales are declining, and listings are either falling or not increasing by much, and prices are rising.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

New listings fell everywhere but Skagit County in June. Bad news for buyers hoping to find more selection as we head into the summer.

Next up: Active inventory.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Inventory fell in Thurston and Pierce counties, but increased everywhere else. King and Snohomish saw the biggest gains, but both of those were far smaller than the gains we saw late last year and earlier this year.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

The biggest increase in home prices in June was Skagit, where prices rose 12 percent. Kitsap was close behind with an 11 percent increase. Every other county was in the single digits.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were down in every county but Skagit, where they managed an increase of less than one percent.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

This graph is the most telling—every county is still a very strong sellers’ market. Most counties are slightly better for buyers than they were a year ago, but we’ve still got a long ways to go before we get even close to what most people would call a “balanced” market (4-6 months of supply).

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,162 comments:

  1. 751
    QA Observer says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 749

    Vulcan Mindmelt of local news. Thanks SWE for your insightful daily digest. I am sure the Bubbleheads can go about their day feeling fulfilled.

  2. 752
    JustNoise says:

    First confirmed layoffs “due to trade war” in Puget Sound region (that I know of, anyway). My husband works for a subsidiary of a mid-size engineering corporation out in Mukilteo. ~200 FTE, 70% salaried, 30% hourly. They’re laying off only 8 people today, and mandating that all hourly employees work only 32 hours/week for the remainder of the year. My husband says there will be more layoffs to come by fall if things don’t change. Gossip from his colleagues in similar fields say their companies are in trouble and starting small layoffs in the coming months.

    The gossip up there around Boeing is also that they’re headed for bigly layoffs this fall.

  3. 753
    Ohd1122 says:

    Does anyone have insight into the July numbers? It’s almost September and I have not seen an update from Tim. I assume nothing noteworthy then?

  4. 754
    Erik says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 751
    Your husband probably works for electro impact, Jamco, or some other company that relies highly on Boeing. Because of the 737 max debauchery, Boeing is reducing spending before they start laying people off. That is why your husband’s company is feeling the squeeze.

    Boeing ceo said if timeline slides, Boeing will tighten up even more and need to lay people off. It’s not really gossip, it’s all over the news.

    The example you are seeing is based on this specific situation and is not a product of a poor US economy. Besides, GDP has never even been negative recently. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP and we haven’t even had one quarter of negative GDP.

  5. 755
    QA Observer says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 751

    Regardless, Home prices will continue to go up. Seattle is different. Everyone knows that! Boeing lay-offs have never impacted the area…oh wait.

    Plus with a payroll tax reduction, that decreased percentage will directly allow for increased borrowing by an equivalent percentage, right?

  6. 756
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Erik @ 753 – Nope. His company relies heavily on sourcing reagents and materials from China and works with customers that manufacture American products in China (for example, they make the tooling that Apple uses to produce iPhone circuit boards in China). His company does no business with Boeing and their current troubles are tied to economic uncertainty and the trade war. There are many of these mid-size engineering outfits north of Seattle in similar situations that are not tied to Boeing.

  7. 757

    RE: Erik @ 753
    Yes Erik

    Like I blogged before we need more retired Boeing and FAA Safety engineers reporting the facts, the phony truth that Boeing is too big to fall or the new Trump FAA director [who’d want that job BTW] signing the S/W fix as certifiable is suggested by Boeing to occur in 3 months [4th Qtr 2019]. Wishful MSM fake news in my book.

    I found an URL to support our allegations, it appears non-partisan, do the rest of you Bubble heads agree?

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/long-before-the-737-max-disasters-boeing-had-a-history-of-failing-to-fix-safety-problems

  8. 758
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-sells-nearly-1-billion-of-30-year-negative-yielding-bonds-2019-08-21?mod=hp_markets

    Can someone help me understand this? How are their investors out there willing to tie up their money for 30 years with a NEGATIVE yielding investment!? This boggles my mind. Logically, the only reason I see doing this is if you anticipate the returns will be even WORSE in the coming years — i.e. -0.1% return is better than say a -5% return. But if that’s the case, and people are anticipating things to be VERY bad, doesn’t that mean we’re in trouble now? I don’t want to sound ‘doom & gloom’ but is the world economy about to collapse!? Serious question…

    How are western Europe economies ‘doing well’ when almost all of them have negative interest rates!? I don’t understand this… these world economies feel more like a house of cards than anything. But I’m no economist so maybe I completely am missing the point?

  9. 759
    Eastsider says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 757 – Here are my thoughts. The developed world is following Japanese footstep. The Nikkei index is still below its peak 30 years ago. So a -.1% treasury return would have far outperformed the stock and housing markets. Note that the current Nikkei index would have been significantly lower if not for BOJ’s majority ownerships of most Japanese ETFs. At its low, Nikkei lost 82% of its value. That was 10 years ago before BOJ intervened heavily in the stock and bond markets. So when you have below market interest rates, you can expect asset deflation and defaults in coming years/decades. The alternative is Venezuela.

  10. 760
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 758 – Thanks Eastsider. You mentioned asset deflation — are you thinking there’s a good chance we’ll see asset (i.e real estate) deflation in some of these European economies where there’s negative interest rates?

  11. 761

    Good News Bubbleheads

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/low-interest-rates-give-housing-market-a-boost-144124709.html

    And Trump is mad at the federal reserve for not lowering the interest rate 100 pts. Stocks back up 200-300 points today as school sales and home improvements lead the way. Last week’s deficit has disappeared this week in the stock market.

    I hear luxury homes sales are slumping due to SALT [$10K federal tax deduction limit], Seattle’s OK too, even if the property tax exceeds $10K, I assume they got the partial $10K max tax write off anyway. Its states with a income tax too that got screwed, I believe the state sales tax federal tax deduction disappeared?

    Smile, the rain today is preventing smoke pollution from camp fires?

  12. 762
    Eastsider says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 759 – I would use negative real interest rate and that includes practically 100% of EU bonds – result of ECB actions. IMHO deflation is in the card. (The alternative Venezuela is not going to happen because governments will collapse.)

  13. 763

    Homeless Camps Growing Huge In Seattle

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, August 21, 2019
    Tent city moves
    Seattle faces crucial choice after famous legal homeless camp moves to illegal spot
    Tent City 3 has moved more than 90 times over its nearly 20-year history, usually hosted by a church or university. But this time is different from most: After plans for a new site fell through at the last minute, residents packed up and went to city land next to I-5 in Ravenna. The move forces Seattle into a big decision. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    There may be a break in the mystery of who gunned down federal prosecutor Thomas Wales in Seattle 18 years ago. An Everett woman has been charged with lying to a grand jury about what she was told by a suspect in Wales’ 2001 killing in his Queen Anne home. Here’s our timeline of the frustrating quest to bring a killer to justice.

    Boeing is hiring hundreds of temps to help prepare for the 737 MAX’s return to service. The company is dangling the offer of paid housing and a meal allowance for workers in Moses Lake. Meanwhile, the FAA is cautioning airlines that sensors tied to two deadly MAX crashes are vulnerable and must be carefully maintained.

    Where would a recession hit the Puget Sound area hardest? With talk of an economic downturn getting louder, columnist Jon Talton zooms in on the companies and industries that could be especially vulnerable. A look at the data shows why economists and top government officials are worried. President Donald Trump has plenty to say about the economy, too, and it’s time for a fact-check on his remarks.

    The King County sheriff has stopped using a key crime-fighting database after learning that immigration officials can peer at the personal data it contains. The halt could have widespread implications for solving crimes ranging from thefts to homicides….”

    Seattle Times is a partisan news source, its generally open border slanted….that said, a few comments about the Wednesday morning ST news brief to level the playing table?

    Boeing hiring temporaries at Moses Lake for the MAX 8 before FAA certifies the S/W revision as the fix? Police sharing of criminal data is halted to protect illegal alien identities [why is that good?]? Political bent recession talk during a DOW surge this week? Believe everything ya read….LOL

  14. 764
  15. 765
    richard says:

    The top five regions that “recession” is being googled…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-08-20_14-29-52.png?itok=cvl3cqCc

  16. 766
    richard says:

    top 5 region of googling “how to prepare for a recession”, we are at the top!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-08-20_14-45-23.png?itok=ClXZx0Aj

  17. 767

    I’m up to my eyeballs in work…but just noticed a bunch of people around the Country watching a live video Q and A on Real Estate and it is happening here in Seattle, so I’m posting the link to it. It started about 5 minutes ago. I’m too busy to watch it but thought someone here might want to watch. They look like new startups in the Real Estate sale and rental space being questioned. Not sure if you can view it if you don’t have facebook.

    https://www.facebook.com/NARdotRealtor/videos/347198289495078/UzpfSTExODIxNzQ4Mjk6Vks6MjYxNzM5NTA2ODMyMjcxNA/?multi_permalinks=2617395068322714&notif_id=1566425575383092&notif_t=group_activity

  18. 768
    Erik says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 755
    I stand corrected.

  19. 769
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 762
    If Boeing is hiring temps and talking like they expect to meet the timeline, I’m beginning to believe they really will meet their timeline. If I can hang on until they launch the nma, I should be safe for 4 years even if we have a major recession.

    I need a major recession, cash to buy investments, and a job. With those 3 things, I should be able to get enough cash flow to retire early. Snowball my rental mortgages, and I’ll be in great shape.

  20. 770
    Blurtman says:

    Lately, I am getting a ton of Leavenworth homes for sale in my Redfin feed. I wonder?

    In Risk-Prone Areas, Fire Insurance Is Getting Harder and Harder to Come By

    Some companies are no longer writing new policies in high-risk areas, others are going so far as to drop long-time customers and almost everyone is raising rates. That’s sent California homeowners scrambling to find another insurance company in places like Alpine, a town of 15,000 near the Cleveland National Forest.

    https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/news/in-risk-prone-areas-fire-insurance-is-getting-harder-and-harder-to-come-by/

  21. 771

    RE: Erik @ 768
    FAA Certification Comes First No matter What

    And its milestone is unknown based on late July news to date, check it out.

    https://www.cnet.com/news/boeings-737-max-8-all-about-the-aircraft-flight-ban-and-investigations/

    Last I heard the FAA was getting grilled by the DOJ over poor handling of the MAX 8 too in Congressional Hearings…is there an IG report? Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. This could be a long legal affair like the Mueller Witch Hunt. Google and Facebook have ethics problem under Congressional Hearings too, so the Boeing/FAA aren’t the only ones in the cross hairs.

  22. 772

    RE: Erik @ 768
    I Hear Ya

    The Recession isn’t coming soon at a theater near you, not with full employment and bank stocks growing in value.

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/the-best-bank-stocks-to-buy-this-year

    I do know we’ll have a recession if the Democrats hike taxes like they want to for MASS spending….that’s a for sure. I see this as unlikely too and so does Harry Reid [D] who says Open Borders and Medicare for All will kill the Open Border Party….Harry Reid is close to death, but speaks his mind while he’s alive. What is Biden’s agenda on Trump’s tax cuts to the average Joe? Who knows, he tells us almost nothing.

    We’re a long way from a recession whether we we call Trump a liar or not. Facts create truth, truth doesn’t override facts like Biden’s gaffe.

  23. 773

    RE: Blurtman @ 769
    They Must Be watching for Homelessness Camp Fire Smoke This Year

    Because camp fire wild fires are way down this year [yet California is in a Summer drought with high temperatures]. The Pacific NW had good rainfall this Summer too, that’s helped too I imagine, especially Eastern Washington. I can imagine a cloud of camp fire smoke appears and the neighbors are out with pitchforks and water buckets [its made us more paranoid now]….LOL

  24. 774

    Governor Inslee Dropped out of the Open Border Party Primaries

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/washington-gov-jay-inslee-says-011311347.html

    He was doing poorly in the polls.

  25. 775

    RE: softwarengineer @ 773
    BTW, Read the Comments Section on this Inslee Article

    How did that Yahoo get elected anyway? Almost everyone from this State’s voters hated him, if the blogs were a polling devise…I call it media brainwashing, psychologists call it the “Trump Derangement Syndrome”. Washington State must have this mental illusion problem bad. See ya at the election booth in 2020, vote Open Border Party, most do in this State….it must be some high quality weed affect?

    Facts are unimportant, truth can contradict facts..yeah right….LOL

    Come November 2020 it will hit the fan again [recent polls won’t matter]….and an end to Trump’s Phase I tax reductions on average Joe incomes will not be the way the Open Border Party beats Trump, no way in my book. Then you’ll be paying high King County property tax increases without that extra money….lose/lose in my book. And where did they drum up Chinese Tariffs would cause a $1000 more on pocket book loss? Fake News in my book, until we can point at the products we currently buy actually going up in price…not alleged, actually…read my words carefully. I haven’t seen anything go up in price, actually Dairy products have lots of sales now….[$1.99/gal milk and $5 for two lbs of cheese]…I got gas at Fred Meyer for $2.79/gal with my 20 cent discount, etc, etc…

    How about building supplies and school supplies? Spending about the same as last year? I have seen COMCAST, Insurance and Property taxes, car tabs go way up in 2019, but what’s that got to do with China tariffs? LOL

  26. 776
    Grayson Stream says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 752 – on Twitter @pnw_homevalues put together some insights from the July data.

  27. 777
  28. 778
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: richard @ 765 – Interesting. Why would this be regional? I wonder why…

  29. 779
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 762 – That part about the King County Sheriffs ignoring the crime data is ridiculous. Are they here to serve and protect us or is their first priority to engage in useless social activism (like seemingly the rest of the world)? I can’t wait to leave for Snohomish county.

  30. 780

    RE: softwarengineer @ 774
    65 Inch Flat Screens From China for $118 at Walmart, at a Theater Near You

    Tariffs have brought electronics way down in price?

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tcl-4k-tv-deals-walmart-190321485.html

    Hey Bubbleheads, contradict SWE and give me “actual” proof prices are going up with tariffs…they aren’t. Facts contradict fake news partisan bent truth.

  31. 781

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 777
    I Blame the current MASS Murders On Open Border Lawlessness

    We shelter killers and organized crime in the name of toilet Open Border Party lawlessness. This sounds more like Venezuela than America.

    Read Dean Koontz’s books in 2019…these inter-state law tracking computer data is how the FBI nails crazy murderers and such…and Washington State is against stopping crime? No wonder there is so many crazy gun toting killers we can’t prosecute.

  32. 782

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 777
    Its Not Much Better in Snohomish County Either

    My old friend bought 75 year lease land from the Marysville Indians and his home is toast in 30 years now….they still property tax his 5 acres at normal land prices too…I checked. His home is worthless now…

  33. 783

    RE: Brianna @ 775
    LOL

    Interest rates go up and I profit as a retiree. But the federal deficit can’t shoulder big interest rate increases and maintain entitlement contracts the Uber Rich want to breach, like Social Security. Its a mess IOWs. BTW, if Social Security goes down the toilet, Seattle home prices goes down with the brown stuff.

    I’m set at 0% interest retirement planning anyway…everyone should plan their retirement assuming their savings earn no interest. Its that simple. The difference between annuity payments at a 0% and 1% interest rate after 20 years is almost no monthly income loss…do the math folks…ya see why I scream “get your $CASH$ now” out of those useless tax free 401Ks with 0-3% interest? LOL I’m transferring my lock box money into bite size $CASH$ payments [lower federal tax bill] and saving it all too in MM accounts…that money I can wire transfer today if I wanted to.

    These Ivy League financial advisors are educated idiots? They make all their money selling “how to” books anyway…

  34. 784
    formerSeattleite says:

    I’m seeing a ‘descent amount’ (subjective, yes I Know) of homes on the market over 30 days, some even 45 days, and some even 60+ days. (Looking at Eastside market: Renton, Kent, Auburn, Burien, Des Moines) For sure more than I’ve ever seen in the last 4 years. Probably a good indication we’re at least at peak price appreciation if not over the peak.

    Can some of the real estate agents chime in on what they’re seeing? Then again, asking a real estate agent if they’re selling homes is like asking a car salesman if they’re selling cars or are the cars just sitting on the lot, right? Expecting anything more than that is probably just wishful thinking..

  35. 785
    richard says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 782 – what do you expect an agent will say? “it is a more balanced healthy market(still a seller market), no way to see an explosion in inventory.. don’t expect a 2008 like crash… If you think the price will go down , dream on!”

  36. 786
    northend says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 782

    My daily commute through Briar and Mountake Terrace takes me past homes that have been on the market since May. Some are new, others a little older. It looks to me like things have slowed down.

  37. 787
    uwp says:

    By richard @ 783:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 782 – what do you expect an agent will say? “it is a more balanced healthy market(still a seller market), no way to see an explosion in inventory.. don’t expect a 2008 like crash… If you think the price will go down , dream on!”

    If I told you we are at lower SFH inventory now than we were last August, would you believe me?

    We simply need to get Justme in here with his inventory graphs.

    He used to post those all the time.

    I’m trying to figure out why he stopped…

  38. 788
    Curious Buyer says:

    I’ve enjoyed reading these comments for months…

    I’ve been shopping for a home for 2-3 months in Seattle metro. I’ve honed in on properties with a rent-able lower/basement floor.

    I hope to live in the upper floor and rent the lower.

    I found a couple like this – one in or around Maple Leaf ($670, 3br, 1650sf), another in N. Renton ($540, 5br, 2350sf), just south of Newcastle.

    I’d live in the home for 3-7 years before moving into a larger home when kids arrive/grow.

    Any thoughts? Is N. Renton worth the discount? Is avoiding Seattle politics a good move? Boeing 737 Max a risk? Is the Northgate light rail stop overrated or underrated?

    Thanks

  39. 789
    Blurtman says:

    By Erik @ 768:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 762
    If Boeing is hiring temps and talking like they expect to meet the timeline, I’m beginning to believe they really will meet their timeline. If I can hang on until they launch the nma, I should be safe for 4 years even if we have a major recession.

    I need a major recession, cash to buy investments, and a job. With those 3 things, I should be able to get enough cash flow to retire early. Snowball my rental mortgages, and I’ll be in great shape.

    But this time, the unwashed masses will be encouraged to occupy the rental properties and homes of the bourgeoisie.

  40. 790

    RE: JustNoise @ 751
    Boeing Did the Same Stealth Layoffs in the late 2000s, so did Microsoft

    I’d look at the parking lot, if its thinner with cars…there’s less employees.

  41. 791
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: uwp @ 784

    Fascinating how much this market changed in early summer! Every other year since 2013 inventory topped in September. This year it topped on June 29th (although I think the inv feed on this site had data issues in that time frame). Still, obviously an unusual year compared to recent ones.

    Regarding Justme, I like the graphs they provide but have found the correlation of declining chart frequency to declining active inventory to be humorous.

  42. 792
    uwp says:

    By LessonIsNeverTry @ 787:

    RE: uwp @ 784

    Fascinating how much this market changed in early summer! Every other year since 2013 inventory topped in September. This year it topped on June 29th (although I think the inv feed on this site had data issues in that time frame). Still, obviously an unusual year compared to recent ones.

    Yeah. A pretty strange year so far. The snow in February, plus everyone on edge about a pull-back in housing, and now the early slow-down in inventory build… Not sure what it all means for the next year. It’s a weird time to be a buyer or a seller.

    I’ve mentioned this before, but despite the fact that Justme thinks I’m a bubble-monger or whatever, our family doesn’t mind lower house prices because even though we own, we’re looking for something bigger as the family grows. I’m not out here rooting for 10% yearly increases, I just don’t think a collapse would be good for the area.

  43. 793

    Harmful Electrical Magnetic Frequency (EMF) Radiation From 5G and WiFi Routers in Your Home

    I just ran my Milligauss EMF meter on my WIFI Xfinity Internet Modem Computer and its green at 1-2….my laptop touch screen [mouse replacement] is yellow at 2-3 readings, about twice as bad.

    They say the 5G EMF cell tower is like 40 reading, but if your home has one near you, use a meter to check inside your house.

    A slower internet is a good thing? Less WIFI EMF radiation? I limit my laptop and iPhone usage, the old analog cell phones were especially bad. Even my old 3G digital spurts a big EMF 10+ on start up. Old calculators are bad too. 5Gs are much worse too.

    The Milli Gauss EMF meters go for about $100 and everyone should own one. My portable air conditioner was red EMF too, I pushed it 5 feet from my bed and got it down to 2-3 EMF at my feet.

    Imagine those hotel air conditioners right next to your head…LOL

  44. 794
    Any says:

    So SWE wears tinfoil hats, big surprise there…

    I don’t care what your EMF meter reads, it’s not hurting you…

    And you won’t measure anything from 5g in your house unless you have LOS to the tower through a window. mmWave doesn’t doesn’t pass through walls.

  45. 795

    RE: uwp @ 788
    I Read in Yahoo News That Trump Plans Deficit Reduction With Social security and Medicare Reduction

    LOL…I ignored that Open Border news, I need a Trump Twitter “in writing” or its most likely fake 2nd party verbal allegations on 2020 budget planning…

    Trump pledged no cuts in either Social Security or Medicare, but did mention cutting the employee’s 6.2% payroll deduction like Obama did with Executive Order [BTW, how does that reduce the deficit Yahoo news?]. We pay more into Social Security [I believe the employer pays 7.5% too] than we’ll draw out in a lifetime, Trump knows that too. Medicare has so many individual costs added its becoming expensive insurance even paying into it all your life. Trump froze the Part B [doctor visits] Medicare deduction at $135/mo for 2019, it was $134/mo. Part D [prescriptions] monthly charge too, but I have pension supplied Blue Cross [$526/mo cost to me for my part] so declined Part D. Medicare and Medicaid cover no dental expenses, Medicaid used to, but I haven’t checked if special needs children get dental from Medicaid, they might [they used to a decade ago], but its unlikely today. Part A [hospital] is free.

  46. 796

    RE: Any @ 790
    I Have a Nuclear Engineering Background

    What are you, a college dropout? I’m qualified to state facts about radiation, you are out of your league….LOL

  47. 797

    Home Inspections Done By Robots Technology is Already in Production

    We don’t need more workers, we need more robot repair and maintenance jobs now?

    https://www.hcmsystems.com/products/palletizing/collaborative-robotics?_vsrefdom=adwords&msclkid=46c770e5da8018def7eb2d84b35a6ed8&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=**LP%20Cobots&utm_term=%2BInspection%20%2BRobots&utm_content=Inspection%20Robots

    Sounds like these robots crawling into tight corners perform much better than humans detecting plastic filled foundation voids and rot/insect coverup and underlining “white-washed” foundation/brick cracks covered up [especially “fire danger” chimneys without steel inserts]…our old $1M museum piece homes built a century ago in Seattle are doomed now? LOL …time to send the bull dozers in?…

    In time I see them renting home inspection robots out to buyers and sellers…the humans miss too much.

  48. 798
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 788

    Maybe the best explanation of the peaking of inventory this year is that the market is reverting to a more “normal” annual inventory curve.

    A friend who is looking for a house in the Northeast Seattle area keeps saying that much of the inventory is “leftover garbage” (bad location, condition, price) that has “prairie-dogged” on and off the market for a year. Many of the houses are actually detached townhouses. Or they are really too big and expensive or they are too small and won’t fit his family. At any given time, there are only a few houses that come close to his criteria.

    My guess is that it will revert to the kind of annual inventory curve we saw in 2013 and 2014. A pessimist might see us reverting to the annual inventory curve of 2015 and 2016

    Or on the other hand, if we keep on with the kind of national economic policy we have seen recently, maybe things will get a lot cheaper (even here) because we will have a nasty politically triggered recession. It is hard to not to be pessimistic when the bozo in the oval office is calling the head of the Fed an enemy of the people.

  49. 799
    richard says:

    the economy is held up by low interest rate. it has little to do who is in white house. trump didnf inherit a “great” economy from obama and he didnt make the economy great either. it is all media hype to make buyer feel comfortable to pull the trigger. nowedia reverse the course to use recession to get rid of trump.

  50. 800
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: richard @ 795

    A good article using actual facts and statistics on the economy.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/18/trump-economy-versus-obama-economy/

  51. 801
    Blurtman says:

    By richard @ 795:

    the economy is held up by low interest rate. it has little to do who is in white house. trump didnf inherit a “great” economy from obama and he didnt make the economy great either. it is all media hype to make buyer feel comfortable to pull the trigger. nowedia reverse the course to use recession to get rid of trump.

    When was the economy good, Richard? And how are you doing, personally?

  52. 802
    Any says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 792

    More qualified than you SWE to talk about the subject, guaranteed. But don’t take my word how wrong you are, lets see what the experts have to say about it (even though your tinfoil hat probably keeps you from believing the scientific consensus.)

    https://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs304/en/

  53. 803
    richard says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 797 – holding cash with no buying opportunity. waiting for FED’s inflation slaugter, not good.

  54. 804
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 796 – wasington post is biased against trump. i can garantee you they can come up with an economy strong article right before 2008 crisis. with high living cost,the consumer will further indebted to support this “strong” economy. unless landlord class spend more on consumption which i doubt .

  55. 805
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 794

    Still not sucking air. :)

    One of my clients locked in a 30 year fixed at 3.375% with no cost today. Pretty crazy.

    Listing one in Phinney Ridge on Thursday morning at 1 a.m. My standard list day and time. Never over confident this year even with low rates.

  56. 806
    Jeb says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 801 – No cost as in no origination fee, or lender credits to cover closing? Either way, incredible!

  57. 807
    Blurtman says:

    RE: richard @ 800 – The MSM has been yet again been exposed as nothing but yellow journalism. The Russian collusion issue is but one example, as well as illustrating how many people are easily subject to having their buttons pushed. And then there is the Kavanaugh fiasco, illustrating how many people, including politicians and representatives, are insane hypocrites as well. I did not vote for Trump, campaigned for Bernie and voted for Jill Stein, and without a doubt, he is red meat for the dumbed down, reactionary liberal and leftist electorate and press. But we have seen the enemy, and he is us.

  58. 808
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 796
    Washington post is not a credible news source anymore. Like Richard said, #fakenews

  59. 809

    The Seattle Rats are Leaving the Sinking Ship Horrified

    We’ve become worse than Detroit for folks wanting to leave the city for good, we’re 7th place in the nation BTW.

    https://moneywise.com/a/ch-b/people-in-these-us-cities-most-want-to-get-out_may2019/p-12

    The Open Border Seattle Times would never print this story BTW…its a Moneywise MSM URL; probably neutral and just Raw Data driven facts; no fake news bent Mother Goose Tale.

    I see Spokane rated poorly too; folks want out of Washington State….period. SWE wears a tin foil hat….hey that makes me look like the Scarecrow in Wizard of Oz…LOL

    It is was it is. I’m sure the Governor Inslee contribution to more OVERPOPULATION killing off the Orcas and allowing lawlessness [allowing blockage of ICE criminal data to federal computers to catch crazy MASS shooters and such]. My gosh if this political nonsense kills folks [it does] then Open Border Pontious Pilate deserves the crucification too..no wonder the mental health background checks to stop MASS shootings or vetting has loopholes….ban the guns and let the criminals roam free instead of encouraging law enforcement? Ask our buddy city, San Francisco….BTW maybe they’re leaving because those who stay vote in the same Open Border Swamp Monsters anyway and they’re sick of the hypocrisy and property taxes…that’s what I hear.

  60. 810

    RE: Erik @ 803
    Actually Erik

    Washington Post does a much better job than the Seattle Times. The Enoch Times from San Francisco is the best unbiased MSM source I’ve found to date, which mean the Open Border MSM hates it.

  61. 811

    RE: Blurtman @ 802
    I Voted Nader in 2008

    Both Obama and McCain were Open Border nuts in my book. I voted Perot in the early 90s too, the choice between Clinton and Bush with NAFTA strangling American auto engineering made Perot’s statement about NAFTA “that giant sucking sound of lost jobs to Mexico” resonate with me. Perot was right too, now Congress get off your duffs and vote in the NAFTA replacement….Trump has it gift wrapped and ready for you to sign.

  62. 812

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 801
    Ardell is Recession Proof

    She’s a hard worker and stays up all night to get it right. Get some rest too Ardell, we all need sleep too. I’m proud of you Ardell, I always was.

    Perhaps the movement out of Seattle will help with the quality of inventory to choose from [as it grows and rentals become vacant]…I sure hope for your sake it does. OVERPOPULATION is making it hard to drive in this city too, a thinning of the cars could help too.

  63. 813

    Good News for Savers as Interest Rates Plummet

    https://banking.citi.com/cbol/savings/high-yield-savings/default.htm?channel=cards&Promo_ID=4CEWQH4ZENUSAD&intc=2~2~51~1~190101~3~BANKACQ~EC_P_HYSA_07192_3N*ALON**7*50*17*S*&JFP_TOKEN=5R1LT55S&BT_TX=1&ProspectID=0872798EAC8643E4845B708A8A38440B

    Looks like a MM account with a small fee and $1500 min balance….2.36% too, check it out…you can link it to checking [quick money transfers] for a small optional $10/mo fee too.

    Hey….the 30 year mortgage is 3.5% and this allows savers to still make some money anyway?

    Citibank has much better security IMO on credit cards and identity fraud….if they smell a whiff of it…they change your account number immediately. Mandatory change too. They only have 1% Cash back on charged items paid on time…but much better security too IMO. My credit card number has been changed almost yearly by Citibank as IT hackers steal my personal information in vane. Citi impresses me….and you don’t need those useless Norton services that don’t work at all…I know. Citi is free.

  64. 814

    RE: softwarengineer @ 774
    The Only Prices I See Going Up are Over Priced Sized Pea Cars from Foreign Engineers, Perhaps That’s Tariff Related?

    Example:

    Kia Sedona $27K base MSRP….Horrible 24 MPG HWY too BTW
    Chrysler Pacifica , MSRP $27K too [28 MPG HWY BTW, probably a lot higher than that too]

    2019 Kia Optimas go for about $30-35K [2019 Chargers MSRP at $31K base, but $26K with brand loyalty discount] and are rated 275 HP for the six cylinder….yet they could have 350 HP and my 2014 six cylinder 300 HP [40 MPG driving 45-52 MPH Hwy, 35 MPG driving 60-65 MPH HWY] Dodge Charger transmission will blow ’em off the road….LOL…Asian engineered transmissions are junk IOWs.

    I just bought a sign for my carport: “Dodge Charger parking Only, all other cars will be scrapped”….LOL

    Ya won’t read that in Car and Driver [Japanese Owned?] MSM either….use your iPhone and video record your speedometer and a stop watch to get real acceleration raw data.

    I know, the Kia is more politically correct to the globalists…the auto mechanics call Kias a joke too, ask ’em.

    FCA has a $5K brand loyalty discount too, Kia doesn’t.

    I won’t go in to Japanese and European “pea sized” cars….they’re off the Richtor Scales in price too, before tariffs too.

  65. 815
    uwp says:

    Wow. This is some good stuff SWE.

    I’m pretty sure the Hearst family owns Car & Driver.
    (Of course, the Hearst family is a gold mine for conspiracy theories as well)

  66. 816
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 801

    I think your Seller on Phinney Ridge will do fine. I am sure with your advice, they will price it well and offer a good value proposition. The fact that there is not a ton of inventory is always a big help.

    One quick question. Why not wait until the day after Labor Day when most people are back in town?

  67. 817

    RE: softwarengineer @ 807

    Thanks SWE. You should friend me on facebook. I often do some blow by blow, sometimes funny, posts while I’m staging a house. You’d have to PM me though so I know the friend request is from you unless you use SWE on facebook. :)

  68. 818

    RE: Deerhawke @ 811

    This one and my last one were not slam dunk sell in a weekend kind of houses. Also I’m less likely to create any unnecessary delays when we are late in the Season like this vs when people come to me in November or December.

    I always list on a Wednesday night…technically Thursday morning after midnight. I like the instant alerts to hit when people wake up on Thursday. Kind of like a sports person on a roll who won’t change his game socks. :) I put a review date on it, so no worries about the Holiday Weekend. People looking for a house often use a holiday weekend when they have more time, especially people moving from out of State. I’ve always had good luck with Holiday Weekends, especially selling homes with a pool on Memorial Day weekend. Almost the best time of year to sell a pool house.

    Look on the bright side. Traffic will be light. :) I don’t do Open Houses unless it doesn’t sell in the first 30 days. It messes up my stats and tracking. Agent controlled showings only.

    I haven’t had a will sell in 1-4 days houses for awhile, though at least one of my buyers did buy one of those this year. You pretty much always have new product, I think. Different game plan for new construction.

  69. 819

    Have your Morning Coffee With SWE’s Email From Seattle Times MORNING BRIEF:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, August 26, 2019
    Elizabeth Warren near the Space Needle
    Elizabeth Warren campaigns in Seattle, drawing her biggest crowd so far
    “People are ready for change in Washington,” the Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. senator pronounced as she outlined her plans yesterday to a Seattle Center crowd that her staffers estimated at 15,000 people. Among those plans: a wealth tax, and a halt to drilling and mining on federal lands. Warren also hinted at her vision of breaking up America’s largest tech companies. (Photo: Bettina Hansen / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Seattle teachers will get an 11% pay raise over three years if union members approve a new contract tomorrow, paving the way for school to start on time Sept. 4. “It should be an easy vote,” says a member of the Seattle Education Association’s bargaining team, which reached the deal with the district over the weekend. Here’s what else is in it.

    A hit-and-run crash left one woman dead and two women injured last night in Federal Way. Check back for updates on this story.

    Get ready for a blast of late-summer heat. Temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 80s tomorrow and Wednesday, possibly hitting the 90s in some spots in the Puget Sound area.

    A historic boatyard has shut down, but its former employees are keeping their treasured wooden-boat craft alive in Seattle. Two spinoff ventures of the Jensen Motor Boat Company are ready to launch an against-the-tide fight. Jensen weathered a century that included the Depression and a world war, but couldn’t survive the rising tide of Seattle’s growth….”

    Since STs is mostly Open Border slanted, here’s the Populist slant too from SWE:

    Elizabeth Warren wants a break up of Amazon in Bellevue? Google too. Why is she hypocritical toward Microsoft? What she proposes is similar to Trump demanding that US companies leave China? Is it the federal government’s business to tell Microsoft where to go? I’m not sure if the Federalist MSM is Populist or Open Border in this case, but it sure brings out the wildness and hypocrisy in this proposed Warren agenda.

    https://thefederalist.com/2019/07/25/elizabeth-warrens-proposed-breakup-big-tech-reveals-ignorance-hypocrisy/

    Lets look at her likely job killing wealth tax:

    Will this mean less jobs and lower pay for all Seattle workers? IMO it will, look what the $15/hr minimum did to destroy the Seattle restaurant businesses….Hades, the Seattle blood sucker Open Border politicians want a lucky devil employment tax too….if you’re lucky enough to have a scarce good job they suggested you pay a City Income tax because you’re so lucky [this was in 2017 folks, I believe it was 9% too]…then there’s Student Loan Forgiveness [STs left this out BTW]…do I get my college money to my daughter back if that kicks in or was I just a chump that paid the full price?

    There’s twice the staff [teachers]teaching the same number of students in Seattle as the Baby Boomers…yet they get an 11% pay increase for charging too much and poor graduation Raw Data? Math, Science and study halls [to get poor achievers graduated] proficiency results are grim and destroyed too…why the 11% anything???…how about layoffs a reduced property taxes instead [55% of our property taxes goes to schools]? Our local public schools schools are a globalist bent joke emphasizing teaching English to foreign invaders instead of teaching period?

    Hades, small aircraft and boats are old stuff from the 90s we can’t afford anymore, even the Uber rich are leaving these expensive hobbies the last couple decades. STs was right about one thing, GROWTH is killing boat sales, as it means even less jobs with lower pay…Seattle Squeeze traffic on top too…

  70. 820

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 812
    I Avoid Facebook Like the Plague

    They want too much personal information and they’re security sucks.

    They had data breaches too [hacks]…the federal government prohibits Facebook use BTW…but thanx for the invite ;-)

  71. 821
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 815
    You and Ardell are both great people. I know you both and you should be friends. Great people should be friends with great people!

  72. 822
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/homes-for-sale-chinese-investors-are-purchasing-fewer-us-houses/ar-AAGe6Mj?li=BBnbfcN

    “..Foreign investors purchased $77.9 billion in residential property in the 12 months ending in March, down 36% from the previous 12-month period, the National Association of Realtors said in a recent report.”

    I don’t know how reliable the ‘the National Association of Realtors’ are or how they calculated and came up with their conclusions (article doesn’t say), but here’s another example of the big decrease in Chinese purchasers in the US real estate market.

    I know Kary has said in the past to dismiss these articles as untrue, since nationality is not a question asked about when a home purchase is being made, but i at least wanted people to see it for themselves and come up with their own conclusion. I do understand why we may need to take these articles with a healthy dose of skepticism, for reasons mentioned above in addition to what Kary has said in the past, but there does seem to be more and more articles repeating the same affirmations. I know that doesn’t necessarily make it true, just cause something is repeated over and over, but there is also an argument to be made for those who have just physically observed a significant amount of ‘perceived Chinese nationals’ making fewer purchases. (Ie the eye test)

  73. 823
    Lulu says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 801

    More low rate to come. 3.25% is still too high. I thing 30 years will be 2.5% top 3% by next year.

  74. 824

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 817

    It’s not so much that we can’t see their nationality, but how do you know if someone is that nationality and living here for many generations and just opting to buy all cash? Lots of people buy all cash who aren’t Chinese. Do you just assume that if it is a Chinese buyer paying all cash that the money is coming from China? Almost always when I see a Chinese cash buyer they are living and working here. City Data says 34% of people who live in Bellevue are Asian. I recently heard about a seller who turned down a Chinese, not all cash, buyer because they were afraid “of what is going on in Hong Kong”. These articles that single out one Nationality in a somewhat unfavorable light can be fueling this discrimination. Many people get large gifts from parents when buying a house. Why should a Chinese American getting a gift from a parent in China be singled out from everyone else buying with all cash or a major cash downpayment?

    It really is bad form to refer to people by race or ethnicity when talking about Residential Housing in this Country. It’s causing problems for people and that is against Fair Housing laws.

    In this day and age when we can’t even say if someone is a boy or a girl, big articles on the dirty Chinese money is really inappropriate. Just last night I was ordering a rain jacket and rain pants for my grandson from REI and it said “kids” and showed the pants on a boy and the jacket on a girl. I didn’t even ask my daughter if she was sure the jacket wasn’t a girl’s jacket as she would have been offended if I suggested girl vs boy mattered.

    Why are we so politically correct…and feel it is OK to badmouth the Chinese? These articles are not based on real facts as even the escrow people often don’t know if the money was moved here from China if it has been seasoned in a U.S. account for a month or two.

    Not uncommon for a woman and her children to live here, children go to school here and the husband lives and works in China. So a Dad buying a house for his family shouldn’t be singled out because he is Chinese vs something else.

    It really is bad form to single out people by race or ethnicity. That said I don’t see any Italian all cash buyers. :)

  75. 825
    richard says:

    In housing boom time, have you ever seen NRA single out Chinese buyers? Not I am aware of.
    Now there is slow down, NRA may just ran out of excuses and is forced to reveal the truth.
    It is a simple fact that Chinese buying is one big factor in our local market. It is not about discrimination, it is about money. The Chinese money flowed into this market either through Chinese nationals or their relatives who already live here.

    In realtors’ shoes, i will be happy too if I have these rich Chinese clients . But please, don’t pretend to be so righteous in front of so many priced-out middle class folks.

  76. 826
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 819 – I don’t get what’s so wrong about tracking foreign buyers, Chinese or otherwise. Almost every country tracks foreign purchases, and many impose additional duties or ban foreigners altogether. Communities don’t benefit from absentee homeowners. Even our politically correct northern neighbor imposes extra taxes targeting foreign buyers. That alone cools the housing market markedly.

    Seattle metro is covered under Treasury Department transparency rule on cash purchases. Buyers can no longer remain anonymous. When the rule went into effect in Miami, anonymous buyers (via LLC) dropped from 29% of all residential purchases to 2%, and has remained at that level since.

  77. 827
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 819

    Kary is right. There is no way to track this information and so no factual basis for these articles.

    And for that matter, it is impossible for Americans to tell what nationality Asians are anyway. In the early 90’s, I remember hearing an American businessman try to ingratiate himself by telling a group of Chinese visitors how much people in Seattle liked Ichiro. They were very gracious about it and then one said, “Oh yes, we are very proud of Ichiro.”

  78. 828
    Brianna says:

    I could see how it would be difficult to track the percentage of buyers being from overseas, or specifically from China. But, we do have local agents and RE firms that specialize in representing buyers from China, as referenced in this almost 2 year old article: https://komonews.com/news/local/chinese-real-estate-groups-tours-eastside-to-learn-about-seattle-area-housing-market.

    I’m not worried at all about Chinese Americans buying any real estate here, or anywhere else in the US. But I do see a danger in a large percentage of overseas buyers of our RE, from China. It seems wise to me, that the government should find a way to limit that, since their share of our Real Estate market, gives them a degree of control in the market here. In Vancouver BC, because of so much foreign investment, the property prices rose too high for many who lived there to be able to afford to buy real estate themselves. That made these foreign investors now landlords to citizens who could no longer afford to buy homes locally in their own country. There are many reasons for concern here. What happens when they all deem investing in our real estate, no longer a good investment and suddenly flood the market with homes?

  79. 829
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 819 – 80% of the controversial EB5 Visa program goes to Chinese investors. It’s a shady way the US allows investors to fast track the whole family’s citizenship within a couple of years. The rest of the H1bs languish for decades trying to get their citizenship. So keep poo pooing this story while you stuff your pockets with that shady money..oops…I meant gifts. It is moved time and time again until you cannot trace it. The money is drying up as the Chinese govt tightens the flow.

  80. 830

    RE: Brianna @ 823

    The NAR report says that 60% of foreign buyers are RESIDENT foreign buyers. I know people from many Countries who moved here a long time ago, but did not opt to become an American Citizen. They are from the UK, from Sweden, from Romania and many, many from India and other places. When you single out one nationality based on loose polling and not reliable data…well then you are just spreading rumors. And when sellers start choosing Caucasians over Asians based on these Articles…that’s against Fair Housing Laws.

    As to my having some vested interest in the issue is ridiculous. I am a firm student of the data regardless of whether it helps or hurts me to provide information and the “foreign” buyers I see most and often are not from China. Totally unfair to single out the Chinese. Many if not most “foreign” buyers in this area who are pushing up prices in the last decade are not from China, especially the ones you-all might be competing with.

    Why do people not know that Real Estate Agents are the front line in upholding Fair Housing Laws and preventing discrimination on a daily basis? It is one of our main jobs since forever and we do run across it often and nip it in the bud. You might call that “self-righteous”, I call it part of my job.

    Agents do know if a Seller is foreign as there is a form asking that in our contracts. Sellers, not Buyers.

    Deerhawke 822…agree. I was not disagreeing with Kary. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. In fact if an agent is asked about the race or ethnicity of their client, agents are NOT supposed to answer that question. Who teaches that to agents? NAR!

    I have a friend who bought a house all cash with Chinese Money. His wife is Chinese and her mother was providing a place for her daughter to live if and when she left my friend. His mother in law not a big fan of her daughter having married him. LOL! They have both moved to that house because it has better schools for their since born child and they kept his house as a rental. Why should this family be held in some kind of disregard more so than any other family buying or renting a house? Why is this parent’s gift worse than any parent’s gift? If you can’t see the discrimination in that…you don’t want to see it.

  81. 831
    richard says:

    cut the fair housing bs. it just a means ti broaden client base without discrimination of the source of the money. i will respect a realtor more if he or she is more candid about this. we all know real estate industry is not philanthrophy. they support certain act for their iwn benefits. please,please, stop insulting everybodys intelligence here.

  82. 832
    Brianna says:

    I’m not urging for sellers to discriminate against Chinese buyers. But, I do think the government should impose a tax against foreign investors, just like Canada did to dissuade foreign investors from buying up RE in Vancouver. And of course, if our government were to do something like that, it would have to be imposed against all foreign investors, and not just Chinese.

  83. 833

    RE: richard @ 826

    You are obviously angry at lots of people…agents…Chinese people…foreigners. What’s your real beef? Home prices? That you can’t afford the kind of home you deserve? That you can’t afford a nice newer house near where you work? That you can’t give your family all that you wish for them to have?

    What makes you so sad and angry? Do you really think it’s impossible that there is anyone who does the right thing most all the time? Are you not that person? Don’t you always try to do the right thing?

  84. 834
    elliptico says:

    Preach it! And let’s do away with inaccurate characterizations like Caucasian. My peeps are nowhere from those Mountains. The Tsarnaevs are Caucasian.

  85. 835
    patrick says:

    I think we should move past foreign v. domestic buyers and get down to the bone of the argument:

    Buying property primarily as an investment asset (e.g. not a primary residence or vacation home, not primarily as a long term rental business) is ethically probably indefensible, and almost definitely is the root of any probably bubbliness.

  86. 836

    Time For My Morning Yuban and the Tuesday Seattle Times Open Border Slanted News Brief With Populist Rebuttal [both sides IOWs]

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, August 27, 2019
    Road sign about tolls
    Tolls start this fall in Seattle’s Highway 99 tunnel
    Could traffic through downtown Seattle possibly get worse? Yes. Expect some drivers to veer onto surface streets rather than pay the tunnel tolls that go into effect in November. The costs will vary by time of day under a plan announced yesterday. Here’s what you’ll pay and how to ease the way with a toll pass.
    NEED TO KNOW
    Seattle is again the only major U.S. city where home prices are lower than they were a year ago. Houses are sitting on the market longer, too. But while prices are sliding in King County, they’re hotter in some surrounding areas.

    Hungry kids fought to get food that had been thrown on the floor. Punishment meant being locked in a dark room. Children now living in Washington state are describing haunting conditions at border detention facilities. Every Washingtonian should know what’s happening, the state’s attorney general said yesterday as he and others sued the Trump administration.

    Washington is apparently one of the best places to grow old. Residents here live longer than in most other states, averaging a little more than 80 years, a new study has found. Here’s a state-by-state look, and some key findings on the common causes of death.

    Pop quiz: Which presidential candidates swept through Western Washington in the past few days? It was hard not to notice Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but Montana Gov. Steve Bullock was a different story when he stopped in Bellevue yesterday to pitch himself as the Democrat who can beat President Donald Trump. Brush up with this guide to the presidential candidates and their positions…”

    King County made road improvements, now we get to find out how it makes little or no difference in Seattle Squeeze OVERPOPULATED roads. I will say the ST agrees with me on that issue.

    Seattle Homes going down in price? They still have a 50% reduction needed to catch up with the downward spiral of incomes to the Millennials….a long way to go or no loan approvals.

    GROWING Seattle Area Hungry homelessness of legal American citizens eating food off the ground among feces and needles and other garbage….a far worse problem than Obama’s refugee holding camps of foreign criminals, last I saw they had cafeterias and tables. Medical and clothing provided too…not for Seattle homeless…they just get told to get the hell out of my city.

    All the retired folks I talk to complain about Seattle area property taxes eating them alive for schools and useless road projects that fail miserably. All the retired folk I know vote “no” on all property tax increase measures, schools included. That is if your the lucky devil chosen few that can retire in this low pay city cutting all its pensions….LOL

    Hey that fake news that Elizabeth Warren had an ambiguous 15000 person rally in Seattle…the 15000 was picked out of the air BTW…absolutely no way was the crowd that big. Trump controls the Rally sizes, who are you kidding. I’m subscribing the the Enoch Times and get news I don’t need to edit to be non-partisan.

  87. 837

    Even the MOM and Week over Week Poll Numbers on Political Candidates are a Joke, Like Real Estate and Investment Planning

    Stocks too. Here’s Trump’s YOY approval numbers…looks “flat line” unchanged [regression analysis] to this mathematician with non partisan emphasis. Today from Gallop:

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

    You can’t cherry pick the data MOM, the YOY is the only credible prediction tool and it has flaws too…like all Open Border data driven…LOL….but the YOY trends for even bad data tell us something at least.

  88. 838

    More Mathematical Non-Partisan Common Sense Proof That our Open Border MSM Reliability Sucks for Seattle Real Estate Too

    Hey Seattle Times and Yahoo News, why are you covering up the BIG STORY today? I don’t see it in print anywhere…Acting FBI Director and the new CNN news host McCabe facing indictment process by the DOJ today…time to fit McCabe for an orange prison suit? At a theater near you…LOL

    Hades, they indicted General Flynn for cracking peanuts incorrectly in comparison…LOL

    What other Seattle Investor news are they omitting?

  89. 839
    richard says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 828 – glad you show your true color.
    I like the truth and I don’t like liars. Yes, there are a lot of “successful” people who can buy home here, but the market just can afford the lack of Chinese buyer and higher interest rate, isn’t that strange.

  90. 840
    biliruben says:

    ” I don’t see it in print anywhere…”

    Check the front page of the NYTimes.

  91. 841
    biliruben says:

    I should warn you though, that the coverage is balanced. Not a lot of red meat for the vultures.

  92. 842
    Lulu says:

    RE: richard @ 833
    I can’t afford to eat out and hire a plumber in Seattle. Should I complain here in this forum?

  93. 843
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 836 – go ahead. nothing wrong to complain anything. key thing is to realize it is just a game of wealth transfer, no moral,just money. the winning side can despise those who have not. the losing side.can also reveal the truth and fight back. it is pretty low to mock people not being successful to buy or not deserving to live here.

  94. 844
    formerSeattleite says:

    Is it me or does there seem to be a significant increase in inventory? Man I wish there was a new post with inventory numbers..

  95. 845
    uwp says:

    By formerSeattleite @ 838:

    Is it me or does there seem to be a significant increase in inventory? Man I wish there was a new post with inventory numbers..

    According to the inventory sidebar, we are at the lowest inventory since early June (although the dip over the 4th of July might be lower by a couple units, not gonna waste time to figure it out exactly). We are on track to have lower inventory this August than 2018.

    But if you have been looking for something specific (whether it’s area, BR/BA combination, or a certain price point) you could be seeing a spike in that particular inventory.

  96. 846
    Justme says:

    Case-Shiller house price indices are out, and as usual, Wolfstreet has great graphs and analysis for many of the specific city indices. NY and Seattle seem to be the bigger weak spots this time. How many trade wars, Boeing crashes/scandals/groundings, Amazon consumer+cloud weaknesses , and disappearing foreign cash buyers will it take to kill the Seattle housing bubble 2.0 for good? My guess is we will find out in not too long.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/27/the-most-splendid-house-price-bubbles-in-america-august-update-western-markets-see-the-dip/

    I notice that many people, although mostly sarcastic bubble mongers, have been clamoring for the return of my popular hourly inventory graphs. Perhaps this weekend there will be an update. Bubble mongers, don’t get too excited about what looks like an early peaking of inventory this summer, though. With non-performing mortgage loans and mortgage delinquencies on the rise countrywide, it is only a matter of time before the Seattle/King County and other Washington State markets will be affected by people that HAVE to sell rather than misguided recalcitrant sellers that are holding out for a new price peak. It will all end in tears for them. How much bad economic conditions can Seattle handle? As it turns out, no more than the other guys, once the irrational exuberance wears off.

  97. 847
    Matt P says:

    By Deerhawke @ 822:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 819

    Kary is right. There is no way to track this information and so no factual basis for these articles.

    And for that matter, it is impossible for Americans to tell what nationality Asians are anyway. In the early 90’s, I remember hearing an American businessman try to ingratiate himself by telling a group of Chinese visitors how much people in Seattle liked Ichiro. They were very gracious about it and then one said, “Oh yes, we are very proud of Ichiro.”

    Not impossible if you know a little of their languages and have spent any time in any of those countries. They generally have distinct facial features and if you can’t tell that way, listening to them speak their own language will clue you in immediately because they are quite different especially Japanese vs any of the Chinese dialects.

  98. 848
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 840:

    Case-Shiller house price indices are out, and as usual, Wolfstreet has great graphs and analysis for many of the specific city indices. NY and Seattle seem to be the bigger weak spots this time.

    LOL
    Seattle is in top half of the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller tracks for this month’s report; but sure, it’s the big weak spot. You’ve got it!

  99. 849
    richard says:

    just checked the Bellevue listing. 75% of the listings is more than 30 days old. looks like the market is dying if the seller does not lower the price. It is quite something considering this is sub 3.5% 30 year mortgage rate environment.

  100. 850
    Bumble says:

    We are nearly ready to close on the purchase of a primary residence. We are leaving our rental in downtown Seattle after 10 years. I don’t know if the market will go up or down in the future. What I do know is that our growing family needs a bigger place to live, at 3.65 % APR we’ll be spending the same each month on mortgage interest and property taxes that we currently pay for rent, and we’ll be living in a 2000+ sq ft home in a nice neighborhood with good schools and short Seattle commutes instead of a 700 sq ft apartment. This same house may have sold for 10%+ more a year or two ago—i’m not waiting and hoping for even bigger discounts. There are deals to be had out there. Many of my peers are on the sidelines waiting for a bottom. The thing about bottoms is that you can’t really spot them until they are over. So i’m setting aside my perma-bear nature and jumping in. Wish us luck.

  101. 851
    N says:

    @ Ardell 801 – RE: 3.375% rate.

    Beginning to shop for a pre-approval. Can you enlighten me on your clients rate and the mortgage market in general. I assume this was with 20% down, but I am hearing a lot from lenders about high balance loans (ie above the conforming limit but under $726k) and how they carry a higher interest rate – not jumbo but still considered a high balance loan. I can’t imagine most buyers are taking out mortgages below $450k in this market given the medium selling price.

    Can you suggest lenders with the best combo of rates/costs offline? Preference to lenders vs Brokers?

  102. 852
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 840
    You said the market was tanking. You told everyone to sell before it’s too late. You were very wrong. I’m surprised you showed back up after making a fool of yourself.

  103. 853
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 844
    Good move. Prices will probably go back up at least once before a major crash. 2 bear markets are most probable before a collapse. This is the first one and there could be another.

  104. 854
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 840
    Nobody listens to your lies anymore loser!

  105. 855
    richard says:

    RE: Bumble @ 844 – sounds like you got a deal. good school and same payment. nice

  106. 856
    BacktoBasics says:

    two years ago the mortgage rate was 3%. so a 3.5% rate is low but still not the best. But I can see sub 3.0% is to come when the 10 year T bill rate drop below 10% plut 2% bank margin. Seattle medium is too high for some folks to afford. People are moving further from center and work location by just look at the traffic on 405 and I-5. gas hybrid and Teslar make gas expense less of shock. But wasting another 1/2 hr or congested hwy is a waste of life. You would either pay more to live close or waste your life, can’t get both.

  107. 857
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Bumble @ 844 – You don’t need luck! Sounds like you’re doing the best thing for your family, and that you can easily afford your mortgage. I’m in a similar boat, but in a condo in SLU and still not quite ready to jump in. Hopefully mortgage rates and housing prices will continue to fall. (Wish *me* luck!)

  108. 858
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 840:

    I notice that many people, although mostly sarcastic bubble mongers, have been clamoring for the return of my popular hourly inventory graphs. Perhaps this weekend there will be an update.

    Perhaps the market will be moving in a way that you like? I’ve started taking the absence of a weekend update as a sort of weekend update in itself.

  109. 859
    JustNoise says:

    RE: richard @ 833RE: Erik @ 848RE: Justme @ 840 – I listen to your lies, and everyone else’s “lies” in the comments. Keep ’em coming.

    Wish y’all could be civil (Seriously, is it really called for to label a stranger a loser or a liar if they don’t agree with you?), but at the very least, it does stay lively around here.

  110. 860
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: N @ 845

    Usually the rates are lower on jumbo and high balance. But you have to go directly to a Bank lender for those to get the low rate. I use Arkadi Gabrielian most of the time at B of A. He used to be with Chase over by Microsoft.. Stellar and great rates both. Yes. 20% down or more. I sometimes have to use First Tech for other reasons, but I always do the preapproval with Arkadi. Best rate comes after you are in contract. You shop on day one and bring your best rate to Arkadi and he beats it.

  111. 861
    richard says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 853 – there is a difference between disagreement and intentionally misleading potentional buyers. they understand what is really happening in the market but they intentionally hide it. when they can not argue with you with logic and facts but starting personal attack. you know you get something right. it is totally fair and appropriate to criticize realtors since there is an intrisic interests of conflict between them and their clients. even i am alone in criticzing them i will keep doing it once i find their infomation is misleading. i can not control interest rate and chinese money inflow. but i can discredit some realtors with facts and logic.

  112. 862
    S-Crow says:

    Me thinks there are going to be numerous sales that are not closing on Friday Aug 30. Tons of refi’s are competing with sales. County recording offices are probably going to be inundated this Friday prior to the Labor Day holiday. The summer sales market is effectively over this Friday. Lots of local Title and Escrow chatter about the volume of refi’s.

    Escrow suggesting to agents to NOT move up their first week of Sept closings to Aug. 30 falls on deaf ears. They were warned.

    We have not been this busy in YEARS due to refi’s and the low rates. Numerous parties who purchased over the last 3 years or so are refinancing.

  113. 863
    Blurtman says:

    Catch a falling knife? If you look at Boston dreck, you might not feel so bad about prices in Seattle.

    The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: West Coast Markets “See the Dip”
    by Wolf Richter • Aug 27, 2019

    Seattle house prices fall year-over-year. New York condos drop to Aug 2017 level. San Francisco Bay Area near-flat. Los Angeles, Denver, Boston reach new highs. Las Vegas, Phoenix dream of crazy Housing Bubble 1. Miami stalls

    “Prices are cooling, and Western states are starting to see the dip,” said CoreLogic in a statement when it released its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index this morning. But prices are not cooling everywhere. So let’s see.

    Seattle House Prices:

    Prices of single-family houses in the Seattle metro ticked up 0.6% in June from May, according to the Case-Shiller Index. This was a much smaller increase than the seasonal increases in prior years. So, compared to June 2018, house prices fell 1.3%, the second year-over-year decline in a row, after May’s 1.2% year-over-year decline – and the first such event since Housing Bust 1:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/27/the-most-splendid-house-price-bubbles-in-america-august-update-western-markets-see-the-dip/

  114. 864
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 856

    Maybe dropping interest rates is one factor in the mix of reasons why inventory has fallen so precipitously since June.

    A homeowner who would normally have sold their house to buy a move-up house looks at their options and realizes they can tap their equity, build an addition and still come out ahead.

    Or maybe people are pessimistic about the overall economy and are refinancing as part of an effort to batten down the hatches and free up cash flow to prepare for a nasty downturn ahead.

    Anyone have any other theories on what factors led inventory to peak early this year?

  115. 865
    Justme says:

    Here is the SeattleTimes take on the Case-Shiller index value for May-Jun-Jul:

    “Home prices in Seattle and the surrounding counties took a dip of 1.3% in June compared to last year, according to the latest datafrom the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The downturn reported by Case-Shiller, which tracks a three-month average of home sale prices in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, was driven by contraction in King County, where home values are on a monthslong slide, according to Zillow.”

    “In the immediate Seattle area, July home values are down 4.3% since last year, to $714,400, Zillow data shows. That’s supported by Case-Shiller data showing the prices of area homes over $628,000 — which includes most of the homes in the city — fell by 3% over last year. In Seattle, confidence in the housing market is waning, said Matt Van Winkle, the owner of RE/MAX Northwest.”

    “‘Listings that a year ago or two years ago would have been gold — say, a townhouse in Ballard — aren’t anymore,’ Van Winkle said. Buyers, anticipating the market will continue to slow and prices will fall further, are practicing wait-and-see, he said.”

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-lower-than-a-year-ago-for-second-month-in-a-row

    COMMENT: My oh my. Several bubble-mungers went bonkers upon my return. And I can see why.

  116. 866

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 838
    What I See at 140 Unit Glenbrook

    5 homes listed and one $200K unit sitting listed all Summer [only one sale to date this Summer]….last year “zero”. Even the surrounding $500K each area has for sale signs all over I never saw before. Perhaps listing quantities data are a joke too? Whose buying ’em? The cashless Millenials? The Chinese? LOL

    They need retiree landlords grabbing ’em up, but even the old folks are broke too?

  117. 867

    RE: Deerhawke @ 858
    Good Question Deerhawke

    I’d call it too much reliance on MSM, I’m sure there’s a plethora of reasons. The MSM doesn’t care about specialist predictions with degrees anymore, village idiots and wanna be engineers [MSFT ITs] control the Open Border Party MSM IMO. They think they’re smarter than engineers in engineering questions. I would never compete with your building experience and savvy either, so leave that area to you. Kary is attorneys and Ardelle is realtors…to each their own.

    But radiation questions, Safety Engineering and Manufacturing Engineering and math is where I better shine….much of it is applicable to material prices, availability and predictions. We must go back to common sense again or we’re doomed to failure.

  118. 868

    RE: Erik @ 848
    I Hear ya Erik

    But everyone is shooting form the hip to prove they’re right…you at least made a big profit selling, but its rare too recently. But both you and Ardell are rare folks IMO. Recession proof IMO.

    The general case for the avg Joe has nothing to with billionaires like Buffet or savvy hard workers with a goal. Those lucky few are Recession Proof. Deerhawke and I are from different political sides but I admire him too, he’s running a successful home building business and he’s apparently Recession Proof too. Ya gotta work hard to get the golden spoon, no matter what your political slant.

  119. 869
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 858:

    Anyone have any other theories on what factors led inventory to peak early this year?

    One thought is comparing the general attitudes of RE market participants Spring 2018 vs Spring/Summer 2019…

    If you were an owner/landlord/builder looking at the state of things in Feb/March of 2018, you saw ridiculous bid-ups, townhomes in border-line areas going for 750k+, and even trash going pending in 6 days, wouldn’t you be rushing to move to market?

    Now, all the folks who didn’t sell then have watched the Summer/Fall slowdown of 2018, Trade Wars (not-so easy to win), and a more normal market where good homes go pending around list price, and other stuff sits for a few weeks. “Why would I want to list my home now?” they say to themselves.

    Anyway, as always, I’m sure it is a confluence of factors…

    But mostly I bet it’s the Seller’s Strike!

    :P

  120. 870

    Time for your Morning Coffee and Some Open Border News with Populist Rebuttle

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, August 28, 2019
    Educators’ bargaining team presents flowers to chief negotiator
    ‘The best contract I’ve seen’: Seattle educators approve deal with district
    It’s official: School will start on time Sept. 4 in Seattle. The contract that Seattle educators overwhelmingly approved yesterday carries significant pay raises. Here are the details. Above, the bargaining team for the Seattle Education Association presents flowers to the team’s chief negotiator, Katie Bishop, center. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    President Donald Trump is pushing to allow new logging in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest. His move to exempt part of the world’s largest intact temperate rainforest from the sweeping “roadless rule” is raising fears about the old-growth forest’s habitat. It hosts salmon that make their way down the West Coast, and is also a haven for bears and deer.

    Tropical Storm Dorian is menacing Puerto Rico with a direct hit expected today at near-hurricane force, and it could amp up as it approaches the U.S. mainland. This story will update.

    A historic Snohomish County lumber mill burned this morning. It shut in 2015 after nearly 75 years in business, and was believed to be full of mattresses and computers when it caught fire.

    Dustyn Hunt-Bagby, 21, was killed by the father of a woman he was dating. But the man who shot him in Everett is still free. As Hunt-Bagby’s family and friends demand an arrest, the woman is talking about what happened that February night in her home.

    U.S. airlines are bracing for record crowds this holiday weekend, and all is not friendly in the skies. Horror stories abound, particularly on American Airlines, which has been squeezed hard by the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX jets. Travelers should be planning far ahead for future holidays because of the grounding, one travel economist says.
    ‘THERE SHE GOES, MY BABY’
    Earl Lancaster films the demolition of his old barbershop
    Earl Lancaster films the demolition of Earl’s Cuts and Styles, which transcended doing haircuts long ago to become a community hub for Seattle’s Central District. It’s moved into a gleaming new site nearby as growth and the tech boom transform the historically black neighborhood. (Photo: Bettina Hansen / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Is there a coyote, otter or bobcat in your neighborhood? A new website, the Carnivore Spotter, wants your help tracking the creatures. Anyone in the Puget Sound area can play citizen scientist and submit sightings that will be added to a map. You can also see what’s lurking around you.

    Things keep getting worse for Republicans in Washington state, with a recent poll showing just how far voters’ GOP affiliation has plummeted. But what’s baffling is that the party isn’t adapting — it’s doubling down with more of the same, columnist Danny Westneat writes.

    Should Ring doorbells share video with the police? Quietly forged partnerships are allowing more than 400 police agencies, including in Washington state, to request video recorded from homeowners’ cameras. This will raise all kinds of privacy issues.

    The spy in your wallet: Buy a banana and your data may end up with marketers, Target, Amazon, Google and hedge funds. A banana buyer’s quest to uncover the secret life of his credit-card data resulted in some cautions for the rest of us. (This is the same guy who made startling discoveries about what our phones do while we sleep.)

    College football preview: WSU’s Anthony Gordon has won the starting-quarterback job after waiting five years. Here’s the underdog tale of how he did it. Across the state, another wait is ending as fifth-year UW linebacker Kyler Manu prepares for his first career start. And the Huskies are making a whopping adjustment on the fly after Jake Haener’s “awkward” exit.
    Provided by City University of Seattle
    Humans forget 50% of new information within an hour of learning it. That number jumps to 70% in 24 hours. A scientifically proven method of improving memory called microlearning is changing higher education.
    WORTH A READ
    Times Watchdog: A health-care system says it’s conducting a review of US HealthVest, its partner in a proposed psychiatric hospital, days after a Seattle Times investigation focused on US HealthVest’s push to expand mental-health care in Washington state. “Public Crisis, Private Toll” found that the company has repeatedly fallen short of regulatory requirements and put patients at risk.

    Snohomish County searchers are looking for two hikers who were supposed to return Friday from the North Cascades. They started their trek 12 days ago at the Downey Creek trailhead, with enough food to last for a week.

    Where can you find “100% Southern soul food” in the Northwest? Altha’s Louisiana Cajun Seasoning in Kent is drawing passionate customers with “something that everybody wants but nobody has.” And catch up on the places our restaurant critics have reviewed recently and loved best.

    Obituary: “He was the captain of our whole family.” Al Haynes was a hero to pilots everywhere for saving more than 100 lives during a fiery United DC-10 crash landing in 1989 in Iowa. After his retirement, he spoke around the world about emergency preparedness, donating money he made to the children of crew members who died in the crash. Mr. Haynes, of SeaTac, died Sunday at age 87.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Your Instant Pot is better than a grill, say top cooks — even for burgers. When you can’t take the heat, stay away from the grill. Here’s why baby back ribs, barbecued pork shoulder and even seared salmon are better this way.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The Electoral College requires serious reform to ensure that the country’s most powerful political office is decided by every American voter, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 83. Low 62. Sunrise 6:22. Sunset 7:57.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Evergreen Point Floating Bridge opens in 1963 after years of planning and bickering. The floating portion of the bridge is about 1.4 miles long, and crosses Lake Washington from Seattle’s Montlake neighborhood to Evergreen Point in Medina. The $24.7 million (yes, million!) bridge will serve for more than 50 years, with tolls implemented in 2011 to pay for a new bridge, with construction beginning in 2012. The six-lane, $4.5 billion (yes, billion!) floating bridge opens in April 2016.

    Learn more about RevenueStripe…
    Read more news on seattletimes.com…”

    Hey how much of that useless money [11% wage increase folks] spent on Seattle schools went to High School teachers with real Bachelors of Science degrees in math and science? Zero? Pathetic King County Graduation rates without GEDs [9th grade level education] better be going up [they aren’t] are its all Open Border Public School lies. How much of the property tax money is wasted on teaching English to foreigners instead? Most of it? Ask Kent lake High School and Green River Community College math professors what the COMPASS math test “failure” scores are for most its phony graduates…LOL…they need a new bumper sticker for Seattle moms in Subuarus…my honor student flunked math…LOL

    LOL….Governor Inslee pumps gazillion gallons of poop rinse into Puget Sound killing off the Orcas and that doesn’t matter its the Baal god GROWTH.

    Where’s the real 737 MAX 8 Safety Engineering news….hidden in your sleeve like a magician?

    Yesterday’s Gallop approval polls are mathematically flat for Trump YOY…that makes Trump a loser? LOL

    LOL…the Electoral College has elected Democrat Presidents for over a hundred years, now its suddenly evil if Trump wins? Get a life STs, stop blaming Russia for your Hillary loss and start planning a real campaign like Trump did..

  121. 871

    RE: uwp @ 810
    Open Border Americans are Foreigners In My Book

    Where’s your engineering rationale…in your bubble gum? It sure ain’t your degree…LOL

    I used actual data, you use alleged poop. You call an engineering analysis conspiracy theory…LOL, you have me rolling on the ground in laughter…

    I cancelled my Car and Driver subscription years ago, have you ever even read it? All it pumps up is derelict low acceleration rigs for high prices In my book…and I’m qualified to state this, you aren’t.

  122. 872
    Justme says:

    By Erik @ 846:

    RE: Justme @ 840
    You said the market was tanking. You told everyone to sell before it’s too late. You were very wrong. I’m surprised you showed back up after making a fool of yourself.

    Uh, Erik. Now you are just plain lying. What I did was to call the peak better than anyone else on this blog. I said by Dec 2017. The real peak was in May 2018. You still haven’t called the peak, have you? Or was that 2024 prediction you made an official call of the peak? I guess so. As for telling people to sell, I think I said in essence that people needed to sell or they would miss the peak. Did they miss the peak? Yes, they sure did. As for the phrase “tanking” I don’t think I ever used it. “Tanking” is YOUR catchphrase:

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2018/12/06/nwmls-home-listing-inventory-skyrocketed-in-november-as-sales-and-prices-both-fell-further/comment-page-2/#comment-277348

    QUOTE(Erik): I wish it was tanking so I could pick up some deals, but that’s not the case. Hopefully it tanks at some point and we can all make some money.

    Oooh. So cute. You were having a soft-but-still-hard-and-greedy moment because of you new baby, maybe?. This was before you sold the condo-on-stilts-in-the-water in West Seattle, and before you bought a house, I think.

    By Erik @ 848:

    RE: Justme @ 840
    Nobody listens to your lies anymore loser!

    LOL. Many bubble-mongers do not want my truths, that is for certain.

  123. 873
    richard says:

    RE: uwp @ 863 – I agree. Only a big round of layoff will move the needle. Recession can be a good catalyst to force owner to sell.

  124. 874
    JustNoise says:

    RE: richard @ 855 – I hear what you’re saying, but it’s still your opinion. I don’t believe Ardell (or Kary) is intentionally misleading anyone, and I like to read their comments, as I like to read yours and almost everyone else’s here. Real estate agents are just people, not crystal balls. And while I’m sure there are unscrupulous agents (as there are unscrupulous [enter any profession here]), I don’t believe most of them are out to get me. If reporting your experience on the comments of a blog makes you a loser and a liar…well, then, we’re all in the same boat here.

  125. 875
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 856

    S-Crow, things may soon slow down both with the re-fi and the purchases, according to some new data from the application side of the mortgage pipeline. I don’t know whether you can see the application side of the pipeline from your viewpoint, but do you have any comment? The article says both re-fi and purchase applications suddenly dropped, and purchase applications are back to february levels. These are countrywide numbers, I suppose.

    QUOTE:

    Despite mortgage rate plunging to near two-year lows, the mini refi-boom has stalled and purchase applications continue to plunge…

    Overall mortgage applications fell 6.2% from last week with both refi (-7.6%) and purchase (-4.0%) sliding. Purchase apps are back at their lowest since February

    Reference:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/mortgage-applications-plunge-purchases-hit-6-month-lows
    (data from Bloomberg)

  126. 876
    Justme says:

    I wonder why I got moderated away? Erik called me a loser. I called him another L-word. And backed it up with facts. So I maybe will try again, this time avoiding that other L-word. Cant think of anything else I did wrong, really.

  127. 877
    Notme says:

    Sellers are confused
    its never too late to sell
    but not at peak price

    -a bubble haiku

  128. 878
    richard says:

    why is the inventory so low?

    1. expectation of even lower rate in the future.
    lower rates may fuel another round of bidding war. Seller may hope to sell their home in the next peak even tough it is hard to predict. Also home owner may stay put buy refinancing their home over and over.

    2. a lot of equity
    sellers are in no hurry to sell since they may have a lot of equity due to fast appreciation in the last 5 years. they can afford to wait for the next peak.

    3. those who bought homes at the peak in the last two years
    they just bought homes and it is not natural for them to sell their home so quickly. This group of people probably is the dumbest ones. They are frogs in a slowly heating pot. They don’t have much equity and they don’t what to do.

    4. baby boomers
    are they choosing to die in their homes or sell their home and move to nursing home later? that’s an interesting question. they have a lot of equity but they are short on time.

  129. 879
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    Open Border Americans are Foreigners In My Book

    Americans are foreigners because I say so, if you disagree with me, go back to where you came from.

    Yet, brags about big cash back for loyalty to a company that has not produced a new model in years, and never will again.

  130. 880
    Lulu says:

    Home owner with 30 years fixed at 4.5% will save a lot by refine at 3.5% rate now. I remember in 2000 , the 30 year fixed rate is around 7.0-7.5%. when house was selling around 300k then. Twenty years later the similar house is selling around 1.0 million at 30 year fixed rate around 3.5%. Not too bad consider DOW was 7700 and now is around 26000.

  131. 881
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 873
    I’m waiting for rates to go down more. I want to refi my investment condos at 3.25% or lower. This time next year, I’m hoping rates to that point. Then I should be in a positive cash flow position and I can coast to the finish line.

  132. 882
    richard says:

    if 100 basis point is a number big enough to incentivize home owners to refinance. now 30 year rate is about 3.5%, next stop will be 2.5%, then 1.5% and finally 0.5%. Even though rate lower than 2%(average inflation target) is hard to imagine. So theoretically there will be 3 major rounds of refinance waves.

    Gee, 0.5% 30 year mortgage rate, what kind of world will that be? if this can happen, the underlying assumption is that the inflation is kept in bay to say the least. it looks quite unnatural to me for this to happen.

  133. 883
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Justme @ 868 – Yup. I follow the mortgage lending industry heavily. In aggregate mortgage apps slowed but locally the refi’s took off in July. It’s taking a week or longer to generate Title Reports from Title Co’s so I’ve been chatting with several back office Title staff we work with from various companies about the volume because it’s insane and solely interest rate driven, naturally.

    I had a recent client ask me about the rates and I said that once this refi push exhausts itself, the question becomes “then what?” When will another refi boom take place? It would take a substantial drop in rates and spread between existing rates owners currently have and another round of rate drops to make it financially beneficial to refinance again. Strike that. Most roll their fees into their loan amount and their loan amounts increases. A lot of people are refi’ing to drop Private Mortgage Insurance— most of them were buyers of about 2-3 yrs ago. People seem to be a little too cavalier about what it costs to refinance and the lower payment benefit. People should be paying down their debt loads instead of shifting it all onto housing. But that’s not the way we roll. We love stuff and we love debt and lenders love to peddle debt.

    My guess is that if rates drop meaningfully again towards 3% or under……we have serious housing market problems on our hands. Those who live frugally and below their means with little to no debt will have the ability to go shopping to see “what’s on sale!”

  134. 884
    JustNoise says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 876 – Interesting – is it common to refinance to get rid of PMI, even after you’ve paid the principal to 20%? Or do they have money they’re adding to the re-fi to get rid of PMI?

    I keep wondering about all the loans in the area that don’t have the 20 down. I read somewhere that in Seattle proper, more than 30% of mortgages have PMI.

  135. 885
    Justme says:

    RE: richard @ 871

    The inventory is not “low”, it just drooped a bit since July 1. In fact, the inventory is just about the same as in 2018 at the same time, and right now about 10% below 2013 levels. Again, not low.

    If you rephrase your question as “why the droop”, then I think your points are pretty sensible. Especially the one about frogs in a slowly heating pot.

    Buyers, just go on strike if the sellers refuse to sell. The macroeconomic conditions and the momentum is on your side.

  136. 886
    Eastsider says:

    By S-Crow @ 876:

    My guess is that if rates drop meaningfully again towards 3% or under……we have serious housing market problems on our hands. Those who live frugally and below their means with little to no debt will have the ability to go shopping to see “what’s on sale!”

    We are not too far from 3%. IMHO, sub 3% is possible before the end of the year. Check out Germany 10yr govt bond yield that is now deep in negative territory and worsening (https://quotes.wsj.com/bond/BX/TMBMKDE-10Y). Even the 30yr bond yield is yielding -.234% today. That’s right. If you purchase Germany 30yr bond today, you will get 93.2% of your money back at maturity. This is unprecedented and troubling. “Interest” may be a thing of the past.

  137. 887
    kenmorem says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 876
    BITD, i think i refi’d a loan from 5.875% to 4.625% and calc’d that breakeven on the delta between payments and closing costs would be about 18 months.

    on a different load, we refi’d from 4.25% to 3.375% and the breakeven there i think was about 17 months. both made sense to me, even though you extend the term of your loan.

  138. 888
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 878:

    The inventory is not “low”, it just drooped a bit since July 1. In fact, the inventory is just about the same as in 2018 at the same time, and right now about 10% below 2013 levels. Again, not low.

    Quite so! July inventory was not low. According to Tim’s charts it was the 15th or 16th highest out of 20 July’s on record. August is looking like it’s going to be the 17th highest August on record. You are in the catbird seat now.

    Looking forward to the weekend update.

  139. 889
    S-Crow says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 880 – What I see is that people almost never pay closing costs out of pocket. They increase their loan amount to cover the charges.

    The ads we hear on the radio is “no closing costs.” I constantly hear from clients, “oh, we don’t have to pay anything until Oct 1? Awesome!” Skipping payments is the sales mantra we hear constantly. There is NO free lunch. People are paying interest, period. They believe erroneously that because a payment was not paid there is nothing going on until I point out the interest accruing during the period of closing through their next payment.

  140. 890
    S-Crow says:

    For those in the Biz here’s my escrow funnies that happened today:

    Client: “I want to know who authorized you to cash my earnest money deposit. How dare you cash my earnest money check! ”

    Escrow: um, we don’t hold checks until closing and then try to cash them post closing and then hope they clear. We cash them when they are received according to the terms of your purchase agreement.

    Client: “It may be lawful but it’s really unethical business practices!”.

    Escrow: clicks the browser tab and searches “career change.”

    I don’t make this stuff up.

  141. 891
    David says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 883 – I’ve noticed Buyers in Seattle play a lot of games with Earnest Money that I have not run into in other markets. Very odd.

    I’ve just returned from several weeks on the road in Alaska, Glacier, Yellowstone and a lot of other places and the Chinese are definitely still spending money on vacations to the USA.

    I was followed by a van FULL of Chinese tourists in Alaska as I stalked a Grizzly bear about 3 weeks ago. Later I was inundated with Chinese people in buses dedicated to Chinese tourism of Yellowstone.

    I suppose at some point, come Chinese tourist is going to be eaten by a Grizzly bear and that might be the end of that tourist trend. (To the cheerful barking of Dogs everywhere as sweet, sweet revenge!)

    But my greater bet is that a lot of Chinese like what they see in the US and especially a lot of Hong Kongers are going to want out.

  142. 892
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 879 – It’s a money machine for borrowers. Student loans, ka-ching!

  143. 893
    Deerhawke says:

    By whatsmyname @ 881:

    By Justme @ 878:

    The inventory is not “low”, it just drooped a bit since July 1. In fact, the inventory is just about the same as in 2018 at the same time, and right now about 10% below 2013 levels. Again, not low.

    Quite so! July inventory was not low. According to Tim’s charts it was the 15th or 16th highest out of 20 July’s on record. August is looking like it’s going to be the 17th highest August on record. You are in the catbird seat now.

    Looking forward to the weekend update.

    RE: whatsmyname @ 881

    Those of us who know the numbers understand and appreciate your sarcasm.

    JustMeMakinItUp deserves to be tweaked for his Trumpist tactics. Don’t like the facts? Then dismiss the facts. ”. Yell “Fake Facts!” Come up with your own alternative facts! And get everyone with weak minds and a strong desire for authority to repeat, repeat, repeat.

    Actually, looks to me like we are heading for the 4th lowest inventory on record, not the 3rd. But that is a quibble.

    An agent I work with said her broker called an office meeting last week specifically to talk about sales tactics to bring in more listings. At a time of year when they expected to be flush with listings to sell, the normal buildup of summer inventory was not there. Their agency has more agents but are down to 2015 levels of listings for the month.

    If The Tim ever finds time to update his graphs, the picture will become clear.

  144. 894

    RE: richard @ 871
    The Hey Day Retiree of the Early 2000s 0r 1990s are Dwindling

    They road 8% checking accounts and 10% CDs on retirement balances…not anymore, is closer to 0% interest now. Its a big difference. The $CASH$ is scarce now for savers, assuming there’s any of those left at any age now [retirees hold mortgage balances too, ask ’em]. Boeing terminated pensions to new engineers years ago, and those “pension-less Boeing engineers” make up of most of the work force now. My Gen-X neighbor had 20 years as a program manager with Microsoft and laid off 3 years ago. He got no pension either, just a $CASH$ severance payment and unemployment. I didn’t ask him how big, but he did tell me his Baby Boomer dad was horrified for his future; he’s got 4 kids [ages 18-28] and one 10 YO living at home, the oldest daughter works at COSTCO [I estimate $14/hr] and none of the kids drive cars or have drivers license… the dad says she can’t afford rent, let alone car maintenance/payments and insurance. This is the “typical” buying Milenials were banking on now.

  145. 895
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 882

    Two more questions, if you do not mind:

    Are the radio ads for “no closing costs” flat out false?

    How many of the people who re-finance today actually end up with a worse deal than what they started with, considering fees (even if they did not take cash out)? How many cash out even more than the closing costs?

  146. 896

    Time for a Mug of Yuban…MMM, Mine is Sweet,The Seattle Times
    It had more non-partisan news in it today, so here’s the stuff related to Seattle Real Estate Health and Price Prediction, I trimmed it down a bit.

    “…MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, August 29, 2019
    People on a ride at Evergreen State Fair
    Turn your world upside-down at the Evergreen State Fair
    Fairgoers are tossed from side to side at the Evergreen State Fair in Monroe this week. The fair runs through Monday. Here’s what fun-seekers need to know about that and the hottest September events in the Puget Sound area. (Photo: Rebekah Welch / The Seattle Times)…”
    “…Going somewhere this Labor Day weekend? Pack your patience. The roads will be jammed and the airports could be messy. But savvy travelers can avoid the worst weekend traffic on I-90, I-5 and Highway 2. Here’s an hour-by-hour breakdown of what to expect. And don’t forget to check traffic before you go.

    Speaking of driving, please be extra careful. The number of people killed by drivers running red lights has hit a 10-year high. Pausing for a second or two could save your life. As one Rant & Rave reader fumes about a close call, experts are talking about how distracted driving may play a role for red-light runners. Know what’s legal in Washington — and what isn’t…”

    “…THROWBACK THURSDAY
    West Seattle welcome sign
    For decades, getting to West Seattle was a big hassle because of frequent openings of its two low bridges, built over the busy Duwamish Waterway. A dramatic moment brought that era to a close, then came years of dizzying detours while the new bridge was built. No wonder the smiles are so big in this photo not long after the opening. Can you guess when it was taken? Check your answer and learn some West Seattle history. (Photo: Brad Garrison, West Seattle Herald / courtesy Robinson Newspapers)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    A windfall for local schools: The Metropolitan King County Council has a plan for how to spend a $318 million infusion for education. Students from early childhood to high school and beyond will benefit…”

    “…New videos show what a tsunami would do to Washington’s coast. Scientists’ simulations depict the height and speed of waves that are expected to rush inland just minutes after a magnitude-9.0 quake. Let this be a reminder to break out our earthquake preparedness guide and make sure you’re ready to rumble….”

    “Mistakes happen, but this is unbelievable.” Seattle City Light customers with a serious case of sticker shock are pursuing a lawsuit against the utility. If it’s certified as a class action, it could be open to any customers who, in the past four years, got a power bill based on estimated usage.

    Provided by Eastside Tree Works
    Before you top that tree to preserve your beautiful view, consider why most arborists refuse to perform the service, calling it an outdated practice with safety and maintenance concerns. Here’s what they recommend you do instead…”

    “…The developer of luxury Seattle condos that cost up to $2.75 million will also build 41 tiny homes for low-income housing, and hire artists to paint the structures.

    Wellness: Most of us aren’t eating nearly enough vegetables, but don’t underestimate their power. Nutritionist Carrie Dennett has some fast, easy ways to sneak them into your day.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Houseplants are supposed to offer relaxation and a mood boost to go with that extra oxygen. But for some, they’re a stressful symbol of failure. Here’s why one “brown thumb” was relieved when her houseplants died.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Seattle Times reader donations have nearly reached the $110,000 goal for this year’s school-supply donation drive. The Seattle Times editorial board shares accounts of their generosity and writes how you can help make education equitable for Puget Sound students.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Mostly cloudy. High 77. Low 62. Sunrise 6:23. Sunset 7:55.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1855, the area around later-named Sand Point on the western shore of Lake Washington is surveyed so that settlers can homestead the land. Native Americans had preceded the settlers by thousands of years, gathering plants and animals in the area. The six-man survey crew is perhaps the earliest group of Euro-Americans to walk at Sand Point. It will be 13 years before the first homesteader settles on the point. and the Seattle Times Thursday Morning Brief…”

    The SWE Populist Take on today’s news related to Seattle livability, etc:
    Better job today in journalism Seattle Times, you’re off the totally bash Trump emphasis. My gosh, errors on your Seattle City Light air conditioning and electric vehicle recharging costing a fortune? How big?

    The first Native American Indians came from France over the frozen Ice Age Atlantic before the Asia continent Indians got here. They settled in Florida BTW….10s of thousands of the bones were dug up and identified as European DNA, that’s why the public schools don’t add it to their text books? LOL…it was documented on History Channel America Unearthed.

    Cutting/Topping trees [Oak] is out-lawed in Kansas….we should have that law on Maples, Cedar and even Douglas Fir too….there is no more old growth, we need to start a new batch.

    Ahhh..cooler weather today, yesterday my house reached 87 without A/C…I put my portable A/C in a bdrm and read books there yesterday, spent the afternoon by Green River cooling off too. It hit 90 degrees on Kent east-hill yesterday but it cooled off quick by 8PM. Watch your potential bogus City Light electric bills if you have central air in Seattle. My PSE bill last month was dinky, $50.

  147. 897
    Justme says:

    >>Don’t like the facts? Then dismiss the facts. ”. Yell “Fake Facts!” Come up with your own alternative facts! And get everyone with weak minds and a strong desire for authority to repeat, repeat, repeat.

    Yeah, that sounds a lot like what the Real Estate Industrial Complex (the REIC) is busy doing 24×365 hours each year. Creating inflation in house prices and rent prices, skimming the margins, and making all poor people even poorer.

    Good thing at least some people are fighting back against the propaganda onslaught. Potential Buyers, never forget, you have the power to say NO.

  148. 898
    N says:

    @ Justme 888 – Zero closing costs can be real, but usually means a higher than market rate to offset not paying closing costs. But when rates drop quickly it an be a way to lower your rate with little out of pocket and hedge against the possibility that you don’t keep the house long term as well.

  149. 899
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 879
    Germans are typical renters. More than 60% of population are renters. Apt has rent control and rate is flat for years. Apt flats are very affordable. Now since the British exit of EU and negative rate, cites like Frankfurt, Munich apt price are sky rocketing. 10% a year. Why save money in the bank and get zero or negative return> More people are buying. Americans have been house buyers for decade, we like to own our own land and house. Maybe we are moving to the opposite direction to become a renter society. Still owning your own home in a desirable location is always everyone’s dream.

  150. 900
    OA says:

    RE: Justme @ 890

    Based on your post, we basically throw supply & demand out the window, and blame the REIC for high prices due to their propaganda? You don’t think that’s quite a reach? Which world do you live in? Lol.

  151. 901
    Justme says:

    RE: OA @ 893

    My, my, you mis-read a lot into to my post. You might say that in doing so, you committed propaganda yourself.

    But to clarify: I did not say it was house price and rent price inflation was ALL due to propaganda. I was responding to a post that accused me of propaganda.

    House price inflation and rent price inflation is also due to other factors, such as opportunistic interest rate policy that has favored asset inflation for over 30 years now, taxpayers and small savers that pay for the losses of banks and lenders and bondholders (creditors in general). Tax policy that favors speculators. and the already wealthy, front-running people with a legitimate personal housing need. Manipulating the supply. And more, including plain old supply and demand. And around all of this is swirling an endless storm of propaganda, both about the housing market and to hide or justify all the special treatment that the REIC gets. But you knew this, right?

  152. 902
    Justme says:

    RE: N @ 891

    >>Zero closing costs can be real, but usually means a higher than market rate to offset not paying closing costs.

    Yes, and that is why the law mandates that the effective APY (annual percentage yield) is disclosed on all mortgage loans. Before that was the law, lenders would be dishonest about the true equivalent interest rate of mortgages, and try to fool people by promising a low rate but adding in big fees (“points”) and other closing costs that made the effective rate notably higher.

    Speaking of APY, Quicken Loans advertises today

    30-Year Fixed VA 3.49% (3.864% APR)
    30-year fixed 3.75% (4.237% APR)

    Note the little acronym called VA. Veteran Administration loans are for military service veterans only. But the regular 30-year fixed is still well over 4% at 4.237%. In fact, if you check on FRED you can see that the spread between the UST 10Y and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has increased pretty suddenly this summer. Why? Because mortgage bond (MBS) buyers are dissatisified with crappy yields. There is an increasing spread between UST and MBS yields.

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 801

    >>One of my clients locked in a 30 year fixed at 3.375% with no cost today. Pretty crazy.

    Was that an APY of 3.375%, Ardell, or some non-APY depiction of the rate? Was that a 20% down loan or higher? The point being that must buyers at current still-high prices do not have 20% cash available to apply to the purchase.

  153. 903
    Funkseoulbrotha says:

    RE: David @ 884

    Pretty darn racist there, but it was funny.

  154. 904
    Steve says:

    Using the link below you can see that July 2019 is 6th highest inventory since Jan 2015.

    I got this from Redfin which has some great reporting tools.

    https://public.tableau.com/shared/DQBDYKG2J?:display_count=yes&:origin=viz_share_link

  155. 905
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Steve @ 897

    Apples and oranges. Not really sure what those numbers refer to.

    We are talking about NWMLS reported King County residential inventory, not including condos. The figure was 4625 in June (see article above!) and 4399 in July. It is about 4150-4175 now.

  156. 906
    Justme says:

    RE: Steve @ 897

    Nice link, Steve. 6th highest month out of the last 55 months, I think that means. But to bubblemongers this is “low inventory. Suuuuure.

    Here is another one, also from redfin, with King County and also with Seattle (City instead of Metro Area)

    https://public.tableau.com/shared/DQBDYKG2J?:showVizHome=no

  157. 907
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: N @ 891

    To be clear, when I said zero cost I meant no buydown on the rate, not no “closing costs”. Rate at par.

  158. 908
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 900

    Quicken Loans today has a 3.375% nominal rate (is that what “par” means?), but the effective APY is 3.936%, and it is a 15-year not a 30-year loan. Not nearly as impressive as seeing a 3.375% number.

    QUOTE:
    15-Year Fixed 3.375% (3.936% APR)

  159. 909
    Deerhawke says:

    By Justme @ 890:

    >&gt

    Good thing at least some people are fighting back against the propaganda onslaught. Potential Buyers, never forget, you have the power to say NO.

    At a time when :
    1) prices have moderated
    2) interest rates are down, and
    3) rents are firming up,
    Your counsel is to JUST SAY NO to buying in the hopes that …what? That we will have another 2008 once-per-century black swan event?

    People, use your brains and employ common sense. Make your decisions on the basis of facts.

    If you follow an ideologue and believe what he says because you want to believe it, you deserve your consequences.

  160. 910
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 902 – 2008 is not a blackswan event. greenspans low interest policy fueled last housing boom. it is the same thing this time, in addtion there is the chinese money. which is new.

  161. 911
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 902 – btw, you dows sounds as smooth and calm as usual. i sense some desperation in your tone.

  162. 912
    towelie says:

    Anyone else notice that the Zillow and Redfin estimates over the last year or so seem to quickly equal the for sale price of a new listing and even match price reductions? As in, Zillow might show it for $880k then the house gets listed for $925k and within a matter of days the Zillow estimate is now exactly $925k. Then if the house doesn’t sell and the price is reduced to $900k, Zillow’s estimate quickly goes down to match once again. What’s the point of these “estimates” if they are just going to track the for sale price of the house?

  163. 913
    Steve says:

    RE: towelie @ 905

    I have noticed the same thing!!

  164. 914
    Justme says:

    RE: richard @ 904

    (about deerhawke)
    >> btw, you dows sounds as smooth and calm as usual. i sense some desperation in your tone.

    LOL, Richard. The hawk is about to lay an egg. He is a brooding a bit.

  165. 915
    Justme says:

    RE: Steve @ 906
    RE: towelie @ 905

    Hey, dontcha know that the market value of a house is whatever the seller wants for it?

  166. 916

    RE: Justme @ 901

    Par means without a charge or credit associated with the straight rate. Think of it in terms of buying a bond. A $10,000 bond will sell “at par” for $10,000. If the bond price is $102 or $98 with a total cost of $10,200 or $9,800 for a $10,000 bond then that is above or below “par”. Those fluctuations in the bond price reflect the change in market rate against the fixed rate of the bond. For a Mortgage, the “straight” rates are usually in 1/8ths. If the “par” rate is 3.375% then you can get a 3.25% with a charge or a $3.5% with a lender credit toward closing costs. When the “rate fluctuates daily” it is not usually changing by an 1/8th, so the change in the charge or credit associated with the rate (not the loan cost) indicates the movement from par. At a.m. the rate may be 3.375% “at par” with no charge or credit and by 2 p.m. the rate may still be 3.375% but with a $300 credit or a $500 charge. At par in my comment earlier meant no credit or charge associated with the rate.

    That is different from APR. APY is something different altogether and not normally used when talking about mortgages unless you are seller financing and holding the mortgage. APY includes the money you earn on the interest paid to you during the year w,hich is not collected from the buyer of the house. So the additional interest you receive in the APY only applies to you as an investor and not to the mortgage borrower.

    So let’s drop APY from the conversation as I think you really mean APR. APR would include the above par payment if there was one, but it also includes all fees associated with the loan. Comparing APR helps you shop because one lender may give you a lower rate but with higher costs associated with the loan. NOTE these are not “all” Closing Costs. All Closing Costs are not IN the APR. Only those associated with the lender so that one lender can have a rate of $3.5% with an APR of $3.67% and another lender could have a rate of 3.35% but an APR of 3.9%. FHA and VA rates tend to have the highest APR rates.

    I never see APY when looking at rates, so I’m not sure where you are picking that up. It would apply more to my original example of a bond yield that pays out it’s interest more than once a year. The bond doesn’t pay you more but the APY would include the interest earned on the interest if they flipped the interest paid into your money market account. Then the APY would be higher even though the bond holder didn’t pay more to you.

    APR is provided to more accurately compare quotes from one lender to the next vs just looking at the nominal rate.

    In the old days this spread between rates was called YSP, Yield Spread Premium, and I believe the lenders used to keep it when they could talk you into a higher rate. Now they have to give it to you as a credit, I believe because of the Dodd-Frank Act. I believe this change went into effect back in 2010.

    I like to use bond terms vs mortgage terms when looking at it from a consumer vs lender standpoint as the lender terms tend to obfuscate. “At Par” means you can take that “at face value” without any charge or credit associated with the nominal rate. Sometimes there is a charge but the lender “eats it” so I would still call that “at par” since there is not cost to the buyer of the house for that rate. There indeed ARE many other costs NOT associated with the rate. There are the lender fees that re IN the APR, but often there is also a lender credit against those, so not quite as clear as you might think.

    All too often buyers call things Closing Costs that are NOT closing costs at all. Just because you have to bring that money to closing doesn’t mean it is a Closing Cost. There are Prepaids and those are not one time up front costs, but rather a prepayment of an ongoing cost like your fire insurance and your RE Taxes or interest on your mortgage. “Cash to Close” is not all costs and every home buyer should know the difference and break it out accordingly so they know their true cost of buying. The total cost of buying, even without the pre-paids, is NOT in the APR. APR is only a lender term for comparing one lender to another.

  167. 917
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Steve @ 897
    Good stuff. Of course, just so people aren’t confused; you should disclose that the “monthly” numbers are each really a construct from 3 months.

    Also, you could hit the King County button so that it would more directly compare with the data we already use. And you could use the single family residence button for the same reason.

    If you make those adjustments, July inventory per their chart is 3835. I think you were better off with Tim’s charts.

    Not sure why you picked 55 months when they have 103 available; oh wait, I get it. Playing that game, I would say July had the 6th biggest inventory in the last 12 months. Pretty good, given the obvious seasonality factor.

  168. 918

    RE: towelie @ 905

    Yes. We talk about it often. Basically the AVM’s are to value something that has no other way to value it…like an ongoing sale. So they are of some value to people when looking at off market transactions.

    Some AVM’s a greater offenders than others. I take a screen shot of the value of three or four AVMs right before I list a property, as I did last night, and then watch how they change immediately after I list it. In last night’s case there were all much higher vs lower than the list price and they immediately dropped vs increased.

    That they do this is not surprising. What bothered me when I first noticed it was that the one that moved the most quickly and the most toward the asking price was the one that bragged as being the most accurate. If you only count the estimate when you aim it directly at the sold price…well of course that’s going to look like the most accurate. There oughtta be a law…not against doing it…but against doing it and then using that as a marketing and advertising point. It’s a bit liar, liar pants on fire. Your estimate value sucked until you attached a magnet to both the estimate and the sold price. Then…oh wow…you were the closest to the sold price. NSS! Let’s not brag about that.

  169. 919
    Blake says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 892
    In deflationary times, owning is good

  170. 920
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 902:

    At a time when :
    1) prices have moderated
    2) interest rates are down, and
    3) rents are firming up,
    Your counsel is to JUST SAY NO to buying in the hopes that …what? That we will have another 2008 once-per-century black swan event?

    Compared to 3 years ago –

    1) prices are higher
    2) interest rates are about the same, and
    3) rents have stagnated.

    Shouldn’t prices return to 2016 level on the “basis of facts”?

    Here is the relevant Zillow page that contains facts and forecasts –
    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

    That’s enough for now… LOL

  171. 921
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 909

    In this thread I meant APR whenever I said APY, thank you. It was just a slip of the brain.

    >>All Closing Costs are not in the APR.

    Agree, not all closings costs are related to the mortgage. BUT, all closing costs that are related to the mortgage loan must be included in the APR calculation. As you said, APR is for comparing loan terms with each other. That’s why lenders must, by law, calculate and disclose APR :).

    >>FHA and VA rates tend to have the highest APR rates.

    And also often the highest spread between the stated rate and the real APR rate. Today’s quicken rates certainly agree with that observation. Quite shocking, really.

    By the way, what was the APR and other terms of your clients 3.375% “nominal” rate loan?

  172. 922
    Eastsider says:

    By Blake @ 912:

    In deflationary times, owning is good

    By definition, deflation is the reduction of the prices. That includes assets – housing.

    https://www.thebalance.com/effects-of-the-great-depression-4049299
    The Great Depression of 1929 devastated the U.S. economy. Half of all banks failed. Unemployment rose to 25% and homelessness increased. Housing prices plummeted 30%, international trade collapsed by 65%, and prices fell 10% per year. It took 25 years for the stock market to recover.

  173. 923
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 907

    Hawks that don’t lay eggs don’t survive as a species.

    And though I am neither a tiercel nor a formel, I am, metaphorically speaking, incubating several “eggs” which I expect to become beautiful and strong-flying eyass over the next year.

    (Sorry. Falconry terminology hasn’t changed much since the time of Shakespeare.)

  174. 924
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 913 – This.

  175. 925
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 916 – By this metaphor, I guess there are many people on the bubble hoping that your, uh, eyasses never take flight. Maybe even…fall out of the nest.

  176. 926
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 913
    Rents have climbed a good amount since 2016.
    Earlier this year Zillow was forecasting prices to increase over the next year. Now they predict prices to drop. Sorta similar to how their estimates on individual houses change once they are listed…

  177. 927
    Deerhawke says:

    By Eastsider @ 913:

    By Deerhawke @ 902:

    At a time when :
    1) prices have moderated
    2) interest rates are down, and
    3) rents are firming up,
    Your counsel is to JUST SAY NO to buying in the hopes that …what? That we will have another 2008 once-per-century black swan event?

    Compared to 3 years ago –

    1) prices are higher
    2) interest rates are about the same, and
    3) rents have stagnated.

    Shouldn’t prices return to 2016 level on the “basis of facts”?

    Here is the relevant Zillow page that contains facts and forecasts –
    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

    That’s enough for now… LOL

    I am not sure why you chose 2016 for comparison when we have been discussing more recent developments. Why not choose 2012? Prices are higher than 2016, but right about where they were in 2018 or just a tad bit below.

    I am getting loans every year. I started to look at refinancing one home loan in 2016 and finally got it done in march 2018. The effective rates in 2016 (or 2018 for that matter) were higher than now.

    Rents in Seattle went up 3.5-4.5% this year. My rentals (just renewed for 9/1) increased by 4% — no resistance at all. Outside Seattle (north and south) rents went up even more.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/brace-yourselves-renters-after-a-brief-pause-seattle-area-rents-headed-back-up/

    Why should prices go back to 2016 levels when we have more people in the area competing for the same basic housing resources. Have you driven on the highway recently? Does that give you some clue?

    Economics is not like running a movie backwards. In fact, alas, life is not like that either.

    Wishful thinking will not make it so.

  178. 928
    Eastsider says:

    RE: northender @ 919 – Check out the Zillow link I provided. It includes historical rent data.

  179. 929
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 918

    Perhaps so. But hoping for the failure of others is such a waste. Why not spend that time and energy instead on learning how to better ones own position or oneself?

  180. 930

    RE: Justme @ 914

    3.375% nominal rate – 3.395% APR – almost no costs. Just tax and flood certs. l can reveal where rates are for the benefit of all readers, but not the private details of my clients. Suffice it to say that most of my clients qualify for the best rates with virtually no up front loan costs. If someone is paying a penalty rate for less than stellar qualifications, they have to add to the going market rate. But that’s a personal premium and not the market rate.

  181. 931
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 921 – They’re not hoping for your failure, per se. But for the failure of your eyasses. And if I’ve learned anything from the comments of this blog – there are many vultures circling on all sides. And also, you’re probably stupid and a liar and a loser. ;)

  182. 932
    uwp says:

    By Ardell D Loggia @ 922:

    RE: Justme @ 914

    3.375% nominal rate – 3.395% APR – almost no costs.

    Justme mentioned that we could use FRED to check the spread between the 10-year treasury rate and 30-year mortgage rate, but for some reason Justme didn’t include a link to FRED’s chart of the 30-year mortgage rate. I wonder why?
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oJct

    Much like inventory, Justme will find some number and latch onto it despite evidence to the contrary. In this case, Quicken’s 4.27% APR. It doesn’t matter that I ran a quote check and got 5 bids under 3.60% APR. Or that real clients of Ardell are getting sub 3.40%. Or that the data that Justme uses elsewhere in that same post shows interest rates falling from 5% to just under 3.60% in 10 months.

    Interest rates are basically as low as they have ever been (within 0.25%). Inventory growth is stalling out earlier than expected. Rents have stabilized (and might be growing). The stock market is about 3% off all-time highs. The recession has not hit yet…

    Must be a lot of bad(?) news to process if you’ve been rooting for a crash.

  183. 933

    New College Grads are as Useful in Most Jobs [Most require on the job training that is not taught in most colleges, like MSFT IT level S/W development] as High School Kids With Real Diplomas [Not GEDs]

    My proof is Windows 95 and 98…both developed with our local NW high school kids, even the laid off guy next door was a program manager with no college degree. Are the unlimited chain migration H-1Bs from like India better at MSFT work with lower pay? LOL…now we have weekly patches and virus S/W we didn’t need with NW high school kid developed 98 and 95 versions. Intel chips designed with open back doors for hackers came about that time too. Coincidence?

    But the Chrome laptop doesn’t need virus S/W, its self contained [is there a mandatory charge for it too?] I do know this, the iPhones can be listened to by Google and passwords and personal information is vulnerable too once the hackers’ install the iPhone virus via malware websites:

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/aug/30/hackers-monitoring-implants-iphones-google-says

    Its all conspiracy theory, MSFT and Google are angels…LOL…lets get our adult kids out of our Seattle home basements and put ’em to work earning livable pay at MSFT again. Reduce Seattle traffic by cutting off H-1B unlimited chain migration for subpar workers in comparison. Let’s make Seattle great again with a hot/affordable housing market again. We did it a couple decades ago, we can return to the heydays with positive thinking.

  184. 934
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 911 – It took me a minute to figure out what NSS meant but I finally got it lol.

  185. 935
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 923 – What was the purpose of your saying this? Be nice.

  186. 936
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 924 – Plunging interest rates is generally considered bad news for the economy.

    Also, from NAR press release yesterday – “The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 2.5% to 105.6 in July, down from 108.3 in June.” This contrasts with the expectation of a 0.3% increase for the index.

  187. 937
    TheBenBernank says:

    FWIW, family and I have turned the corner from “just looking” / kicking the tires to seriously hunting and even placing some offers on homes. I think the overall environment in the areas we are looking in have become a lot more buyer friendly. Homes reduce in price more often than they bid up, but that could be simply a function of sellers coming in at too high of prices, thinking they are still in 2017/2018.

    To repeat the statements made several times here already, the current environment is better than the past few years, but there is still a lot of room to fall – especially if an “economic event” occurs and employment takes a hit.

    The “economic event” doesn’t even need to be national. If Boeing doesn’t meet their MAX airplane obligations in October, that could trigger a massive layoff locally in the area which would impact home prices.

  188. 938
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 925 – Traffic could be drastically reduced with more incentives for large corporations to offer shuttling.

    Think about Boeing machinists. Why do they all drive separately to work when they all have the same start and stop times? How many thousands of cars could we free up both N/S bound I-5 if Boeing offered shuttling for their assembly teams?

    How about we take the money out of useless programs that purport to “help people” and do something like that to alleviate traffic?

    Or we could tear down the convention center and widen lanes…

  189. 939
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Ardell D Loggia @ 922

    Rates are a hard thing to discuss because like you mentioned, there are market rates and then there are personal reasons related to the borrower regarding why their actual rate is higher and/or lower.

    Not to mention you get different rates depending on if you buy down the rate or take negative points, and different lenders have different upfront origination fees (some none at all, but then give higher rates).

  190. 940
    TheBenBernank says:

    Have we ever had a conversation/discussion regarding the philosophical reasons why a buyer would purchase with a 15 year fixed vs. 30 year fixed?

    As I talk to more home owners, I get the overwhelming sense that most people never intend to own their homes free and clear. That surprised me a lot.

  191. 941
    Eastsider says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 932 – 30yr mortgages are more prevalent and rates are probably more competitive. This is not to suggest that 30yr is better than 15yr. It depends on individual circumstances. Also, you can always “pay down” 30yr mortgages (or 15yr mortgages) to reduce duration.

  192. 942
    Mary says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 932
    I have a $400k 30yr mortgage at 3.375%, which I obtained in 2016. I see no reason to pay it off early. That is barely above the rate of inflation. In fact, if I ever see rates go below this, I will probably refinance and take cash out and invest it.
    My retirement accounts have returned about 8% on average in the last 15 years. I would rather sink my money into an 8% return vs 3.375%.
    If we see another Great Depression, I am screwed. But I would also be screwed if I had a paid-off house and no investment income in retirement.

  193. 943
    JustNoise says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 927 – You missed the point, but hopefully Deerhawke didn’t. And it was completely tongue-in-cheek.

  194. 944
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 933 – Yes, agree that the 30 year is way more prevalent. I think it is more than double or triple the volume of 15 year.

    I guess the question is more philosophical, with regard to getting out of debt and owning your home free and clear. I gather that we live in a world full of people who are way more willing to take on and carry debt than I, hence the 30 year > 15 year in popularity.

    Personally I don’t even care if rates are low. I would rather get to owning my own home free and clear as soon as possible. I hate having any kind of debt whatsoever.

  195. 945
    JustNoise says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 935RE: Eastsider @ 933 – I wonder if there’s any correlation between median home price (or other measures of affordability) and prevalence of 15- vs 30-year loans.

    I assume that if people could afford it, many would opt for shorter loan terms – similar to auto loans (which, incidentally, are getting longer and longer).

  196. 946
    JustNoise says:

    More news of layoffs from a different engineering company north of Seattle. 10% of salaried FTE getting laid off today (about 25 employees).

  197. 947
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By TheBenBernank @ 932:

    Have we ever had a conversation/discussion regarding the philosophical reasons why a buyer would purchase with a 15 year fixed vs. 30 year fixed?

    As I talk to more home owners, I get the overwhelming sense that most people never intend to own their homes free and clear. That surprised me a lot.

    Why is this surprising? Look at median income to median housing prices for the area and it is immediately clear why 30yr mortgages are more popular. People can’t afford 15yr monthly payments (in aggregate).

    Also, with rates near historical lows, carrying long term low interest debt in order to invest at a higher rate of return elsewhere makes sense, assuming people are comfortable with increased risk.

    Thirdly, most mortgages allow pre-payment, so a 30yr gives you a still low rate, less risk, and complete flexibility to remove the debt as quickly as you’d like. The real question is why anyone would use a 15yr because the rates are not much lower but you lock in a legal requirement for a much higher monthly payment.

    Lastly, people are lazy and tend to follow whatever everyone else does.

  198. 948
    Eastsider says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 936 – I think most people would choose to buy the biggest/most expensive homes that they can afford, especially when average homes are beyond average family budgets. Auto loans used to be 3yr, then 5yr, 7yr, and now even get rolled over to new loans with negative residual values.

  199. 949
    Eastsider says:

    RE: LessonIsNeverTry @ 938 – You made some good points on the ‘option’ value of a 30yr mortgage. However, “carrying long term low interest debt in order to invest at a higher rate of return elsewhere” is not a slam dunk as you suggest. There is a chance that you will underperform in your investment portfolio in the next 10-30 years, especially when taxes are considered.

  200. 950
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 939 – Totally agree. Wasn’t even considering the fact that people use longer auto loan terms to make pricier cars “affordable”.

  201. 951
    Mary says:

    I thinking the choice of paying off a mortgage early must be made within the context of your entire financial situation.
    Let’s take two extremes:
    Person X has a house valued at $500k, a paid-off mortgage and $0 in investment accounts. Net worth = $500k
    Person Y has a house valued at $500k, a mortgage balance of $400k, and $400k in investment account. Net worth = $500k
    Now both lose their jobs. Which one would you rather be?
    I would like the security of the cash, personally. That $400k would allow me to sleep at night.
    However, if you are maxing out your 401k and IRA’s every year and you have the cash left over to pay down your mortgage early, why not?
    I personally can’t do both, so I focus on the higher returns in my retirement accounts. But I don’t take out debt on depreciating assets (cars, gizmos), only on real estate!
    https://www.businessinsider.com/im-worth-15-million-and-id-never-recommend-paying-off-your-mortgage-early-2016-8

  202. 952

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 931

    I generally don’t talk about rates unless I’m correcting a misperception created by a comment here. One that I recently let slide was someone saying rates were 3% two years ago. I don’t think that is correct. I think the historic low over the last 25 to even 40 years was in 2012 and the rates are a tad higher than that today, generally speaking.

    While JustMe is correct that not every buyer qualifies for best rate, it is important for them to know if the rate they are getting is higher or lower than “best” available and why. Then they can fix that either before they buy or before they refinance. If they don’t know why their rate is higher…they can’t formulate a plan to fix their weaknesses.

    It’s not simply a matter of what you can get today…but also what you can do to improve that. For instance some people think a VA loan is better because it is a reward for their service that they qualify for VA. Not the case. A good option for some, but only if they need the special benefits of VA…or FHA. Otherwise not really competitive.

    Some people don’t want to know they are not getting best rate because it makes them feel bad. Most want to know what they need to change in their financial spending patterns to be able to qualify for best rate.

    In some cases it is not bad habits, but too many good habits, like never before having bought anything using credit. Not uncommon for people who never buy something they can’t afford to be penalized for “insufficient credit history”. So, everyone should know what the best possible rate is…and if they can’t get it, why not. Having a credit card but not really ever “borrowing” by paying off the balance every month before there is any interest paid, often does not qualify as “credit history”. So you want to be clear as to what the standards are for getting best possible rate in case it is something you can fix.

  203. 953
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 924

    For everyone, here is a plot of FRM30 minus UST10 . Notice that spike up at the end? That’s what happened the last several weeks. Basically there are signals in the market that investors are unwilling to let FRM30 ride down in lockstep with UST10.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o7HP#0

    Nomenclature:
    FRM = fixed rate mortgage
    UST = US Treasury (bond, note or bill)

    >>Justme mentioned that we could use FRED to check the spread between the 10-year treasury rate and 30-year mortgage rate, , but for some reason Justme didn’t include a link to FRED’s chart of the 30-year mortgage rate. I wonder why?

    You wonder why, UWP? Duh. Because I was talking about the spread, not the rate value, dummy. Now you are just trying to sow confusion, and that is a standard propaganda technique.

  204. 954
    N says:

    Not getting the best rate could also be a failure to shop thoroughly. Most people go to one place, and honestly, there are big differences.

    Also, as was pointed out, not everyone has 20% or even 10% for a down payment due to either their life situation at current state or desire not to sell an asset (rental house, stock etc).

    And it goes without saying this is for owner occupied mortgages — I carry a 15 year mortgage at a rate that would seem stupid for a 15, but you always have that additional rate on a non owner occupied property — plus the lower the term, the less rate matters in the long wrong anyways.

  205. 955
    Justme says:

    If the China-based speculators are not quite gone yet, the below certainly will help speed up that process.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/30/china-imposes-new-capital-controls-targets-foreign-real-estate-purchases-as-yuan-falls-to-11-year-low/

    China Imposes New Capital Controls, Targets Foreign Real Estate Purchases, as Yuan Falls to 11-Year Low by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2019 • 55 Comments •

    “Wiring money overseas is not allowed for the purposes of purchasing real estate or insurance products”: banker in China

  206. 956
    richard says:

    RE: Justme @ 945 – wow, nice job, chairman Xi. Hopefully he can follow through this measure. But I am a little pessimistic about it. If there is money, they is a way. This year’s Chinese purchase is still huge in terms of absolute value.

  207. 957
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 940:

    However, “carrying long term low interest debt in order to invest at a higher rate of return elsewhere” is not a slam dunk as you suggest. There is a chance that you will underperform in your investment portfolio in the next 10-30 years, especially when taxes are considered.

    If my investment portfolio can’t beat 3.5% (Tax-deductable!) over the next 30 years, I’ve got other things to worry about.

  208. 958
    Justme says:

    A shocker for recalcitrant sellers of property: For 7 straight months now, the nominal ARM/5 mortgage rate has been higher than the FRM/15 rate. Historically unusual. More housing price drops coming. After points and fees, the spread is even higher. Data source: FreddieMac PMMS.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1167553138686976000

    The last time something similar happened was during the bubble busting in 2008-2009. Related note: Rates shown are nominal rates, and not the fees/points-inclusive APR rate measure. APR is considerably higher, and the APR spread between ARM/5 and FRM/15 is even wider.

  209. 959
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 947 – Maybe you should start worrying about these “other things”… Ask the Japanese. LOL.

  210. 960
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 942:

    Having a credit card but not really ever “borrowing” by paying off the balance every month before there is any interest paid, often does not qualify as “credit history”.

    If you have a stellar credit, your credit score will still be in 800s if you pay off balance every month.

  211. 961
    Eastsider says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 941 – The endgame is massive auto loan defaults. It will happen. Guaranteed.

  212. 962

    RE: Eastsider @ 950

    Yes but you can be turned away by those with best possible rate due to “insufficient credit history” regardless of credit score. It happens fairly often, especially for people who have not been in the Country for a very, very long time.

  213. 963
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 949:

    RE: uwp @ 947 – Maybe you should start worrying about these “other things”… Ask the Japanese. LOL.

    You cannot compare the US to Japan. Japanese real estate is completely different than the US.

  214. 964
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 952

    Credit scoring is on my list of “don’t get me started” topics.

    A few years ago I had a good year and decided to pay off the mortgage on two rental properties. (The loans had rates of over 8%). You would imagine that my credit score would rise because I had less debt and more equity. On the contrary, my credit score dropped 25 points. Evidently my perfect payments score going back to the 90’s was no longer counted as strongly.

    A friend retired from his consulting business and requested a cut in his credit card limit from $100,000 to $50,000 because he was no longer hosting big events. What happened? You guessed it. His score fell by 25 points.

    Their algorithms really don’t make much sense to me, but they do determine the rate of your loans.

  215. 965
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 954 – Big factor is utilization ratios of your total limits. So if your consulting pal cut his limit but kept similar debt levels, then yes he would have been penalized.

    It would have been better for him to request a limit increase and keep or reduce his debt levels.

    Also, it is possible to build sufficient credit history with just making payments without interest on credit cards and requesting limit increases once a year. I have 800+ with all three credit rating agencies and have never carried a mortgage or any kind of term loan other than one auto loan in 2007, which I kept for only a couple of years. There are ways to do it!

  216. 966
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: richard @ 946 – I agree this is good news, but honestly, the effects of this will take at least 2-3 years if it impacts capital flow at all.

    Assuming it does make a difference, there are still plenty of Chinese who bought homes this year or the year before, who can hold their property for at least a couple/few years before selling.

    RE moves so painfully slow. Are you willing to wait 2-3 years before purchasing? I sometimes wonder if I have that level of resolve myself.

  217. 967
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Justme @ 948RE: Justme @ 943 – Why is this an early indicator of a housing bust? I am salivating for one, but I don’t see how this substantiates that point of view.

  218. 968
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Justme @ 943 – Interesting comment re: spreads and how the 30 year FRM is not riding down with the UST 10 year.

    Which of the two has greater impact on mortgage pricing:

    1) Competitive market dynamics between lenders?
    2) MBS investor demand for yield?

  219. 969
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 940RE: Eastsider @ 933 – Agree. Especially if/when property values decline and you have to sell.

    But of course that never happens. Oh wait..

  220. 970
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: uwp @ 947 – RE carries risks too. In addition to the same old asset price decline risk that other assets do, it goes without saying that there are other risks unique to RE.

    Like the risk of tree roots growing and rupturing sewage lines. And then said sewage lines breaking, thus necessitating digging up your entire drive way. Or lead paint. Asbestos. Neighbor kid breaking his leg on your trampoline. Stocks and bonds never have to deal with those kinds of risks lol

  221. 971
    Eastsider says:

    By David @ 953:

    You cannot compare the US to Japan. Japanese real estate is completely different than the US.

    I recommend that you read up the following Wikipedia page on Japanese asset price bubble –
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

    At the peak of asset bubble, Nikkei 225 reached an all-time high of 38,957.44 on Dec 29, 1989. It closes at 20,704.37 today. Japanese 10yr govt bond peaked at 8.032% in Sept 1990. Today it yields -.277%. Japan may be the first developed country to experience deflation. But I suspect EU is next and followed not far behind by the US. (The alternative is hyperinflation.)

  222. 972
    richard says:

    RE: TheBenBernank @ 956 – it depends on rent. buying a house is not a sacred goal to me.

  223. 973

    RE: Deerhawke @ 954

    I was not a big fan and was frankly surprised when using credit scoring was approved. I had too many years of reviewing buyers credit reports with them and helping them remove things that weren’t theirs.

    As to you friend, know that credit scoring likes your total balance due to be 30% or so of the line. I tell my children it is better to have two $3,000 cards with $1,000 each on them than one $3,000 card with $2,000 on it.

    By reducing the max available, you increase the % the balance due represents, thus decreasing your credit score. That said, a condition of mortgage approval does sometimes require that you reduce the available credit, though I haven’t seen that for some time. They do this when your ratios would be out of whack if you used up the full line after you purchase the house.

    This rule of 1/3rd used to 2/3rds not used being the favored pattern for credit score purposes has been around since credit scores first came on the scene, so bears repeating if you and your friend do not know this.

  224. 974

    Excellent Blogs from All IMO on what the interest rate decreases “small print” Really Means

    Its like training classes in banking for Seattle loans, I learned a lot, thank you Bubbleheads!

    I’d add that new homes generally have conventional loans with like [5-20% down, but good gosh the down payments keep getting smaller even on these, that ya got to keep up with the new rules]….I believe the monthly payments go up like 20-30% for 15 year loans vs. 30 year loans…can any one give the difference they’re getting from banks? I chose a 10/20 year loan [fixed for 10 years at 6.5% in 1999 and ARM rates for 4.5% theoretically for 20 years more]. I figured then to finish at 10 years with my smaller principle [I did]. My principle was about 90% of the amount I borrowed in 1999 in 2009. There’s a plethora of loan possibilities, so chose carefully folks. The interest I didn’t pay was my early retirement I’ve been collecting since the 2009 principle pay off. This was my plan in 1999 and it turned out workable. Savers interest rates in 2009 had already plunged to about zero, after the horrifying Recession then.

    Grab your Mug of Yuban and Check out Today’s Seattle Times News Brief…Again its more Non-partisan than Some Days:

    “…The Seattle Times
    TOP OF THE TIMES
    Saturday, August 31, 2019
    Sketch of Seattle’s waterfront
    ‘A curtain to Seattle’s past has been lifted’
    Light is finally shining on Pioneer Square buildings that have been hidden in the shadow of the Alaskan Way Viaduct for decades. The viaduct’s life and loud, slow death have kept Seattle Sketcher Gabriel Campanario returning to capture Seattle’s dramatically changing waterfront. See it through his eyes.
    Traffic through Seattle
    How to avoid the worst traffic this Labor Day weekend

    Going somewhere? Pack your patience. The roads will be jammed. But savvy travelers can avoid the worst weekend traffic on I-90, I-5 and Highway 2. Here’s an hour-by-hour breakdown of what to expect.
    Read more
    Tents on a ferry deck
    Budget cruise: What it’s like aboard a ferry adventure to Alaska

    Think vacation cruise, and you probably think of the giant ships that lumber into Elliott Bay. But for a unique twist, pitch your tent on a ferry and ride the marine highway from Bellingham to Alaska.
    Read more
    Japanese mochi doughnuts
    21 new restaurant openings, and some sad farewells

    The Japanese mochi doughnuts at Dochi are among Seattle-area diners’ new options. Let’s hope that eases the sting of losing a few beloved spots, including Mama’s in Belltown and a Central District community hub.
    Read more
    Kitchen in Laurelhurst home
    A modern farmhouse with style: Peek inside a Laurelhurst home

    “Thank God you didn’t build a Ballard box.” A Laurelhurst couple is winning neighbors’ praise for the home they did build, a striking modern farmhouse with a roomy, supercool kitchen.
    Read more

    HEADLINES FROM THIS WEEK
    “The best contract I’ve seen”: School starts Wednesday in Seattle, and educators are celebrating a new contract that carries significant pay raises. Read more.

    Seattle is again the only major U.S. city where home prices are lower than they were a year ago. Houses are sitting on the market longer, too. But while prices are sliding in King County, they’re hotter in some surrounding areas. Read more.

    One of Seattle’s biggest parking scofflaws: Gene Minetti owes more than $17,000 in fines, and refuses to pay a dime. “What am I hurting?” he asks. But Minetti and other frequent violators could soon find themselves in the city’s crosshairs. Read more.

    Crunch time for the Seahawks: Seattle must pare its roster down to 53 players by this afternoon. It’s looking good for Ben Burr-Kirven and grim for Shaquem Griffin. Read the latest.
    Bringing you the news you care about. That’s our specialty. Supporting the local free press? Maybe that’s your specialty.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    UW opens its football season at noon today against Eastern Washington, fervently hoping not to repeat the past. The Huskies have plenty to prove. Read more.

    All is not friendly in the skies. Horror stories abound on airlines that have been squeezed by the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX jets. Travelers should be planning far ahead for future holidays because of the grounding, one travel economist says. Read more.

    Things keep getting worse for Republicans in Washington state, with a recent poll showing just how far voters’ GOP affiliation has plummeted. But what’s baffling is that the party isn’t adapting — it’s doubling down with more of the same, columnist Danny Westneat writes. Read more.

    Washington apparently is one of the best places to grow old. Residents here live longer than in most other states, averaging a little more than 80 years, a new study has found. Here’s a state-by-state look, and some key findings on the common causes of death. Read more.
    Provided by Snoqualmie Casino
    From Live Aid to Pearl Jam, modern-era benefit concerts have united music stars and their fans in support of a common cause since The Concert for Bangladesh in 1971. Find out why Charity Rocks – literally. Read more.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Rats and mice are a common problem in Seattle – and they can threaten the structural integrity, health and safety of your home. Relatively inexpensive and unobtrusive preventative measures can prevent a rodent infestation. Read more.

    SWE adds:

    Rats galore in Seattle…make sure the trap door to the crawl space has no small 1/8th inch gaps…they get in there frequently. Broken dryer vents [with holes] and misfit frame construction gaps on stick homes are other doorways for rats and mice. The skirt around manufactured homes can sink allowing rats in too, seal it up with adhesive. Seal your home well folks. I put a Peanut Butter rat trap at my crawl space floor entrance, if the peanut butter is gone [these useless traps rarely catch the beasts]….you’ve likely got rats. So far I haven’t had any for decades…thank God.

    The YOY approval Polls are flat for Trump to date; so what Raw Data is the Seattle Times using to suggest otherwise, Mother Goose Fairytale Book? LOL

    The Seattle Area is not a friendly place to retire, the property taxes will eat fixed incomes alive…try i.e., Kansas City, or get out of America period if you want that “fixed” low interest dinky 401K to stretch. Dollars and sense folks. As far as living longer it depends on whether you use the CDC or Census Bureau Raw Data, they differ by 10-15 years in life expectancy…I’d bet on the Census Bureau lower expectancy figures. OVERPOPULATION has decreased health care and let’s put it this way, the new folks they added in the name of GROWTH aren’t the top apples in the human DNA batch either. Ask the AMA or the demography scientists.

    Good 737 MAX 8 Take STs, you told the truth IMO. I don’t fit in a coach seat anymore, I have to fly at 2.5 times the rate in 1st class or could face squeeze legged artery blockage and bruised arms. I hear they’re making coach seat room smaller for us 6 foot “muscular” Americans. Its like small cars, you small people fit, I don’t and bean bag style low chairs in “low roof” small cars are hard on your backs too, hard to get in out of without a handle to grab…LOL

    Wasn’t the weather yesterday a welcome relief, cooler! Go Huskies! Good Game Sea Hawks too.

  225. 975

    The Most Expensive Homes in America are in the state of Mass

    They’re only $400-500K, much lower than our $712K avg…the reason is property tax, etc…other factors add up too:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-most-expensive-state-to-buy-a-home-in-its-not-new-york-or-california-2019-08-29

    Keep this in mind when you do your retirement planning.

  226. 976
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    Is it a good sign for sellers that SFH inventory in King County (Seattle and suburbs) appears to have peaked early in the year for 2019? Maybe not. The most similar behavior was in 2008, 12mo after prices peaked in KC, and the bubble bust ensued for real. #housingbubble #bustthebubble

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1167553138686976000

  227. 977
    TheBenBernank says:

    RE: richard @ 962 – do you have a family/kids?

  228. 978
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 966

    What may be going on here? Well, many sellers wanted to sell after the peak, which was May 2018. Some would not accept that prices where dropping. They tried to sell into the small 2019 spring bump. Still not satisfied, they are trying to wait longer. But, waiting longer was not a good strategy in 2008!

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1167841988554608640

  229. 979
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 966

    Correction: I think the correct link to the tweet is

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1167837182469406721

  230. 980
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 966:

    Weekend update

    Is it a good sign for sellers that SFH inventory in King County (Seattle and suburbs) appears to have peaked early in the year for 2019? Maybe not. The most similar behavior was in 2008, 12mo after prices peaked in KC, and the bubble bust ensued for real. #housingbubble #bustthebubble

    Yeah, inventory peaked early in 2008, at, uh, over 12,000 SFH. Roughly 3 times current inventory.

    It’s weird that you were salivating over potentially hitting 7k inventory this year, but now see falling inventory as a sign of 2008. It’s kinda like when rates were heading up you were sure that was a disaster, but now that rates are falling, that’s also a sign of disaster.

    Anyway, I don’t notice any patterns in the data. From eye-balling The Tim’s NWMLS charts…

    Years when Inventory peaked early (May/June/July):
    2003
    2004
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2015

    Years when Inventory peaked late (August/September/Oct):
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2013
    2014
    2016
    2017
    2018

    Also, if you would like to compare the current inventory situation to 2008, I should point out that inventory basically declined for the next 9 years post-2008. So, uh… yikes!

  231. 981
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 968:

    RE: Justme @ 966

    What may be going on here? Well, many sellers wanted to sell after the peak, which was May 2018. Some would not accept that prices where dropping. They tried to sell into the small 2019 spring bump. Still not satisfied, they are trying to wait longer. That did not work in 2008!

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1167841988554608640

    Whoa! Instead of quietly ignoring the results of your hourly graph methodology; you are now actively distracting away from it? That is a pretty powerful weekend update, indeed.

    Still, good catch on the parallel to early-in-the-year peak inventory with 2008. As you may remember, 2008 was the cyclical peak as well. Inventory declined for the next 5 years. Fortunately, there isn’t room for equivalent inventory shrinkage this time. I mean, how could there be negative inventory?

  232. 982
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 970

    UWP>> It’s weird that you were salivating over potentially hitting 7k inventory this year, but now see falling inventory as a sign of 2008.

    That was someone else, not me, mentioning 6-7000. I cautioned against that. I wouldn’t *mind* 7000, but it is unlikely this year. Right now inventory is down because some sellers THINK they will get higher prices later.

    It does not look good when you make things up about me. Desperate measures due to desperate times?

  233. 983
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 970

    2008-2012 was indeed years when inventory peaked early in the season. 2015 does not count, it was flat for months right around the peak level.

    So you agree with me. Early peaking matches the bust years of 2008-2012. Imagine that. Maybe 2019-???? will be the bust years, too. Which is what I was pointing out.

  234. 984
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 971

    Graphing the hourly data is not a “methodology”. It is just graphed data. Why do you use such bizarre flowery pseudo-intellectual language so often?

    whatsmyname>> 2008 was the cyclical peak as well. Inventory declined for the next 5 years.

    And prices declined a lot during the 2008-2013 bust, too. Imagine that, prices and inventory falling at the same time. That ought not be possible, according to the inventory-fetishists of the REIC. But it happened.

    MInd you, I am NOT predicting that inventory will drop next year. It seems more likely that when the recession hits with full force, there will be a leg up in inventory, both due to people that HAVE to sell, and recalcitrant sellers that realize that prices will keep dropping and they had better get out while they can.

  235. 985
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 974
    “Methodology” is flowery, pseudo-intellectual language??? Perhaps it is where you got your GED. I’ll give you the 10 and under crowd on this one. Methodology is just a short and precise term for using a set of consistent rules in a regular way to achieve a purpose, in this case delivering a conclusion – just as your graphs were a systematic way of supposedly demonstrating inventory was heading toward market wrecking growth. (You wouldn’t want me to have keep saying all that would you?)

    Inventory and prices can certainly fall together – once inventory is far too big for demand. If you think that our 17th highest (out of 20) August inventory is equivalent to the 1st highest, then the stage is truly set. Always, there are some people who have to sell, and they will be increased in a recession – when that arrives. But think of all the people who don’t need to sell – and have a recent lesson in the folly of panic. Why not save time, and change your name to Justperpetuallydisappointed?

  236. 986
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 975

    >>quietly ignoring the results of your hourly graph methodology; you are now actively distracting away from it?

    That sentence sounds like it is written by a medium-bright 11-year old that is trying hard to appear to be clever.

  237. 987
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 972:

    That was someone else, not me, mentioning 6-7000. I cautioned against that. I wouldn’t *mind* 7000, but it is unlikely this year. Right now inventory is down because some sellers THINK they will get higher prices later.

    It does not look good when you make things up about me. Desperate measures due to desperate times?

    “I’m a bit late commenting on this, but I would like to say that 6-7000 is possible, 5000 is plenty good. ” – Justme
    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2019/06/06/nwmls-listings-up-sales-flat-prices-fall-in-may/comment-page-3/#comment-282278

    2008-2012 was indeed years when inventory peaked early in the season. 2015 does not count, it was flat for months right around the peak level.

    So you agree with me. Early peaking matches the bust years of 2008-2012. Imagine that. Maybe 2019-???? will be the bust years, too. Which is what I was pointing out.

    2011/2012 were great times to buy a house. The guy who started this website bought then. 2010 was a decent (but scary) time to buy a house. Even 2009 likely worked out fine (buyers were probably up 10% in 5 years and selling into a strong market). You also left off 2003/2004 which were decent times to buy a house. But I guess those don’t fit the narrative.

  238. 988
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 976:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 975

    >>quietly ignoring the results of your hourly graph methodology; you are now actively distracting away from it?

    That sentence sounds like it is written by a medium-bright 11-year old that is trying hard to appear to be clever.

    Not hard at all. It was simple and compact, although without a lot of wiggle room; so that the substance could have been easily answered by a medium-bright 11-year old with no misrepresentation to hide.

    I feel bad that said 11-year old was not available.

  239. 989
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 977

    Lack of relevant context is the sign of dishonesty. It was someone else that said

    >> Inventory of 6,000 looks in the bag. Maybe 7,000 is the new stretch goal for 2019.

    I thought those figures were overly optimistic. My response was to tamp down on such lofty goals as unnecessary and even possibly counterproductive. And I was right. One of the propaganda brothers (Uwp) now has abused my comment responding to the above the statement, just as one would expect. Here is how I gently tried to adjust the expectations lower:

    >> I’m a bit late commenting on this, but I would like to say that 6-7000 is possible, 5000 is plenty good. We don’t really need any stretch goals for the inventory.

    See that? I didn’t propose 6-7000. I said less was plenty good, and that we did not need any such “stretch goals”.

    Can the propaganda bash-brothers ever stick with the truth? Don’t hold your breath.

  240. 990
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 979 – So when you think something is incorrect, you say it is possible, but unnecessary?

    I am glad to hear this because I don’t think that you’ve ever claimed anything I wrote was possible, but unnecessary.

  241. 991
    Notme says:

    In the future, this might be a poem: 9e23bef86483770e32e9c168a3e1f47f

  242. 992
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 980

    Several of the things you write are within he realm of possibility, meaning “not impossible”. All of the things you write are unnecessary.

  243. 993
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 982:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 980

    Several of the things you write are within he realm of possibility, meaning “not impossible”. All of the things you write are unnecessary.

    After all this time; who’d have thought we have so much in common?

  244. 994
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 982
    Do you Own any real estate right now?

  245. 995
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 982
    Do you own any real estate right now? If so, what is your level of involvement?

  246. 996
    northender says:

    RE: Justme @ 968
    So the sellers strike has begun!

  247. 997
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 968

    It’s amazing that inventory refused to decrease materially, despite the huge unexpected decrease in the 10-year interest rate. If the Fed had not panicked and reversed interest rate policy, it implies we would have seen 7000+ inventory by now.

    Unfortunately, the Fed shot its wad early, and the Fed has no fire power left. This sets the stage for a massive and quick inventory increase when the recession hits.

    And we know there will be a recession because when the yield curve inverts as much as it has, recession ALWAYS ensues. It think a recession followed the past 17 of 17 inversions, or close to that.

    Unfortunately, it seems clear we will see 8,000-10,000 inventory by next Summer as recession takes hold and layoffs hit the news. The price drops will continue and then accelerate when the recession hits.

    Buyers should reasonably expect 20% price drops from these levels, if they can wait a little bit.

  248. 998
    Joe says:

    Interesting how people have been rushing into bonds that have a slight negative real return because they know the economy is on the verge of tanking. They’d rather lose a little in bonds then lose a lot in stocks or RE. The bond market is telling you the economy will see low to negative growth over the next 30 years because a 30-year treasury pays only 2% interest.

    Low to negative growth implies stagnant wages, profit reductions, stock price reductions, and layoffs.

    If you buy RE at this time you should get a charitable deduction for your loss, as you’d be giving your hard-earned money away.

    This next recession will be a long one, given the degree of structural impairment in the economy, but we should see asset prices drop a lot sooner in anticipation of that.

  249. 999
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 979:

    Lack of relevant context is the sign of dishonesty. It was someone else…

    Yeah, correct. Someone else that said 7,000 was a “stretch goal” while you said “I’m a bit late commenting on this, but I would like to say that 6-7000 is possible, 5000 is plenty good.” I never wrote that you said it, I wrote that you were excited about it as a sign that higher inventory meant lower prices.

    And yet, here you are saying that dropping inventory is a sign of the next 2008.

    My point is, everything is a bad sign for the housing market (to you).

    Inventory up? Oh man, here it comes… Next stop, 5k, 6k, 7k!
    Inventory down? Oh man, here it comes… just like 2008!
    Rates up? Oh man, here it comes… we just hit 3% on the 10-year, this is a disaster!
    Rates down? Oh man, here it comes… we just hit 1.5% on the 10-year, this is a disaster!

    It’s getting tedious.

  250. 1000
    uwp says:

    By Joe @ 986:

    It’s amazing that inventory refused to decrease materially, despite the huge unexpected decrease in the 10-year interest rate. If the Fed had not panicked and reversed interest rate policy, it implies we would have seen 7000+ inventory by now.

    Last year, SFH inventory grew by roughly 2,000 between the end of May and the end of August. This year it’s basically flat (maybe down?) over the same time period.

    Even 2016 & 2017 (not great years for inventory) SFH inventory grew by about 7-800 between the end of May and August.

    Now, is this year’s failure to spike because of lower interest rates, or the much discussed –and very popular– “Seller’s Strike” is up for debate.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.