NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,952 comments:

  1. 251
    Notme says:

    RE: Bumble @ 250

    >>Seems like you are blaming the rain on the guy selling umbrellas.

    If you want to speak in symbolic language: I’m blaming (some of ) the shortage of reasonably priced umbrellas on the guy that bids up older more reasonably priced umbrellas, buys them, wrecks them, and then sells new umbrellas that are flat and square and half the areal size, umbrellas that will not last in the rain, for 2X the price. All the while claiming, in not so many words, to do God’s work.

  2. 252
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 227
    We are in total agreement that the housing market has split into different segments.

    My argument is that the money from China inflated the top portion of the market and, now that it has dried up, that is the portion that is floundering most.

    Particularly after the backlog of home buyers that had built up from so many lost bidding wars has been worked through the system.

    China DID have an impact on the lower-priced segment, though, basically due to the domino theory.

    As prospective home purchasers lost out on bidding wars, some would have waited (building the backlog of purchasers) and others would have had to adjust their sights lower, similar to the “drive to affordability” concept,

  3. 253
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 245
    I don’t think Seattle housing price will increase the same pace as last 10-20 years. But the housing sq and lot sq will decrease lit PG tooth paste at the core area. Large house would be built further from city center and the buyer will regret wasting hrs on the cramped HWY traffic. In core area, those old 1950 house with sizeable lot would be subdivided for two high rise slim houses or a single big house. Overall, Seattle housing will still outpace inflation above nation average. Wrong or correct my prediction, time will tell.

  4. 254
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 252 – Yes, I am not denying that Chinese money has no impact on the lower end, but it has been minimal compared to the high end. Someone also claims that supply and demand will continue to push prices higher. True to a limited extend but I doubt it will have as big an impact now that prices are out of reach for most families. Imagine an overcrowded Indian city where demand far outstrips supply. Even if its population doubles, price gains are limited by income.

  5. 255

    Update on Seattle Area’s Baby Orcas Extinction in Puget Sound

    I haven’t educated myself on this topic with recent news on the topic in a while. They’ve found hungry live Orcas [their food is running thin with no fish left to eat] and dead babies, albeit they did find a rugged calve [single left?] barely surviving in our fishless Puget Sound, as their numbers shrink to zero. GROWTH is causing their extinction.

    https://q13fox.com/2019/04/04/the-last-generation-southern-resident-orcas-in-danger-of-extinction/

    BTW, Marine Oceanologists can do a much better job describing their extinction cause, like heavy elements [sewage rinse?] contaminating their blood, which the article above mitigates. You can talk to these professionals on Orcas tours from the San Juans, to get at the cause, I imagine the sewage waste toxins in Puget Sound keep the fish populations thinned down too, as well as Salmon runs slowed to a halt on our OVERPOPULATED rivers. They’re studying the causes now, but lets hope politics on human land use causing increases sewage waste doesn’t cloud the research. Heavy elements in their blood aren’t caused by starvation, its water pollution folks. GROWTH is the source culprit IMO, whether we admit it or not.

    Cheer up Bubbleheads its time for the Friday Yuban and the Seattle Times Brief:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, September 20, 2019
    Alaskan Way Viaduct section and machines
    Farewell to the final waterfront stretch of Alaskan Way Viaduct
    This weekend, crews could crumble the last double-decker section of the Alaskan Way Viaduct along Seattle’s waterfront, capping nearly 20 years of work and planning. The last chunk of the highway between Pike Place Market and the former Battery Street Tunnel will come down later this fall. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Crowds of Washingtonians today will join the Global Climate Strike. Here’s which Seattle streets will be affected. The strike is controversial in Seattle, where the schools chief said state law prohibited schools from excusing students’ absences for the strike. But it turns out that’s not true. Hundreds of thousands of people around the world are joining in, many of them inspired by Greta Thunberg — a Swedish teen “superpower” who sailed across the Atlantic to a climate meeting, rather than fly.

    Traffic alert: A key route into South Lake Union will close Monday for 18 months while the Fairview Avenue bridge is replaced. Detours will affect thousands of drivers, bus riders, bicyclists and walkers, and congestion will likely spread through the area. Plus, be aware of traffic changes this weekend on Highway 18, I-5 in Tukwila and Highway 99.

    A school-bus driver was arrested after a child called 911 to report that “she was drunk” and had run several red lights, police say. The driver in Longview, southwest Washington, was arrested after completing two bus routes with about 90 students, KGW 8 News reports.

    Where have all the birds gone? Three billion fewer wild birds are soaring than in 1970, according to a comprehensive study that has shocked even researchers and conservation groups. Some of the most common birds are taking the biggest hits.

    Amazon has embraced an enormous challenge: Become carbon neutral by 2040. CEO Jeff Bezos yesterday outlined huge changes to the way Amazon will power its transportation and infrastructure, including a plan to have 100,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030. The fast-growing company has a loooooong way to go.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    HELLO, BABY
    Orcas visit local waters
    The newest orca calf born to endangered southern resident killer whales pays a playful visit to local waters yesterday with her family members, while researchers seized the rare moment. The orcas have been spending most of their time on the outer coast of Washington, where the feds have proposed expanding the whales’ critical habitat. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times, under NOAA permit 21348)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Is Whole Foods getting a little too Amazon-ish? A new touch screen at checkout stands asks shoppers to rate their experience on a scale of one to five stars — just like Amazon customers do on product reviews online. That’s among recent changes that aren’t going over well with every worker.

    Fireproof your tree. A certified arborist explains how to tell how your tree is really doing – what signs of distress to watch for, the best time of day to water and other tree-TLC and tips to help trees thrive all year long.
    WORTH A READ
    A whistleblower complaint about President Donald Trump centers on Ukraine, sources told The Washington Post as Congress and intelligence agencies are locked in a standoff. The intelligence official’s complaint involved an alarming “promise” that Trump made, two former U.S. officials said. House Democrats are probing whether Trump tried to manipulate Ukraine into helping his reelection campaign.

    New York Mayor Bill de Blasio dropped out of the presidential race today, saying, “It’s clearly not my time.” Here’s a guide to who’s still standing, and what the candidates say about key issues.

    Take that, buddy: A Chicago lawmaker was talking about a pigeon-poop problem when — splat!
    Yes, these UFO videos are real, the Navy says, but please stop saying UFO. Don’t tell that to the crowds trying to “see them aliens” this weekend near Area 51.
    Jenna Evans dreamed she’d swallowed her 2-carat engagement ring — then woke to find that she had.
    Crime is getting to be a really hairy problem in Florida.

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Flu, gloom, politics: Fall’s damp chill, gray skies and busier schedules can pile on the stress. Enjoy your pumpkin spice latte in peace with these fresh ideas for taming fall stress in big and small ways. Ax-throwing, anyone?
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The revocation of states’ ability to make stronger limits than the feds on cars’ air pollution will have destructive consequences for the environment and carmakers’ stability, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. And while today’s marches to support better climate policy will signify how deeply the drive for a better environmental future is felt, real change requires registering to vote and deploying political power.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘America’s Got Talent’ gave Benicio Bryant a little taste of his dream. Now, what’s next for the Maple Valley teen?
    Burien’s Travis Thompson makes good on ‘Reckless Endangerment,’ the rapper’s first major-label album
    Ta-Nehisi Coates, Ijeoma Oluo, David Sedaris and Rachel Maddow top the list of authors who’ll be speaking in Seattle in fall 2019

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 68. Low 57. Sunrise 6:53. Sunset 7:11.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    A cougar wanders in 1890 into downtown Seattle, on Pine Street between Fourth and Fifth Avenues, and “for a few minutes owned the street.” The cougar leaps into the window of a stable at Sixth and Pine, creating a disturbance among the horses. The owner of a secondhand-goods store fires two shots from a revolver, killing the 8-foot-long, 160-pound cougar. The only other fatality is a chicken the cougar kills in the stables. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    Since when does some Swedish teenager dictate when we close our public schools for whatever reason folks. I’m sure she’s a Climate Change theory degreed expert…LOL

    The Seattle PI alleges cats are killing all the wild birds, we need leash laws for cats?
    https://blog.seattlepi.com/thebigblog/2013/01/31/seattle-cats-kill-as-many-as-8-1-million-birds-a-year/

    This DNI whistler blower [fake news?] allegations will not proceed and cannot proceed to possible lynching party impeachment surveillance. Its that simple and is meaningless partisan gossip. A nothing burger.

    My next door neighbor bought a 2019 minivan for their family of six. I told him he’ll need to replace it with a dinky tin can Leaf and scrap it it by 2025 while still paying its 75 month loan….if California emissions have their way….money down the toilet and pea sized golf carts for families…LOL…but they have a 162 mile range if the battery doesn’t lose capacity. LOL….hey its like a “clown car” they all can cram in…

  6. 256
    Justme says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 255

    Yo, SWE, I think the morning brief commentary often is not so relevant to Seattlebubble. Perhaps you can post the commentary over on your own blog and just post a link here?

    (For those who don’t know, SWE has a blog that can be reached by clicking on his name.)

  7. 257
    Bloginception says:

    RE: Justme @ 256

    No, No. It’s hilarious. The SWE blog inception is a cool feature of Seattlebubble. When you can’t drive traffic to your own site, find a chronically neglected blog and plant your own seed!

    For real though, this guy is a spot-on caricature of your typical aging boomer who has been fully assimilated by the internet.

  8. 258
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 254 – Chinese money has absolute impact on every price level. If it is true that Chinese money is focus on high end, it will have big ripple effect. It will block people to upgrade their house to higher tier therefore their house can not be sold and cause the supply shortage. It is very misleading to say Chinese money is focus on high end. that’s is exactly how my real estate “friend” misled me three year ago.

  9. 259
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: richard @ 257RE: richard @ 257
    It will be another wave of Chinese money flow into USA and Canada: The Hongkongnese is you call them Chinese. One bathroom sized HK flat could exchange for a condo in Seattle. Then there will be Taiwanese Chinese. Guess where they like to purchase in the US and Canada? West coast cites like LA, SF, SEA and Vancouver.

  10. 260
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 247:

    If you had moved to Portland OR in 1990, you would have done as well on your home purchase. Check out the CS HPI for Portland. Portland does not have an Amazon or Microsoft. So how would one justify the insane prices there?

    According to Zillow, the insane median home price in Portland is $414,900. In contrast, Zillow’s median Seattle price is $714,100. Perhaps the Amazon and Microsoft absences are reflected in the nearly $300,000 price differential.

    The best time to buy was a few years back. I was not bearish until a couple years ago.

    So what years were the best time to buy? Did you buy anything in that period?

  11. 261
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 259
    Portland median home prices in 1991 = $85,000
    Seattle median home prices in 1991 = $135,000
    Seattle was 60% more expensive than Portland in 1991.
    (Growth Management and Housing Prices: The Case of Portland, Oregon by Justin Phillips and Eban Goodstein at Bard College – 2000)

    Based on CS HPI for Seattle and Portland –
    Today’s Portland home price is 417% that of Jan 1991.
    Today’s Seattle home price is 390% that of Jan 1991.

    So Portland homes gain slightly more than Seattle homes in that period. This is despite the fact that Portland does not have an Amazon or Microsoft!

    For the same down payment and monthly mortgage payment, instead of getting a small house with no yard and no garage in Seattle, you probably get a much nicer home in Portland!

    So what years were the best time to buy?

    Do some homework and stop embarrassing yourself.

  12. 262
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 260
    So Portland homes have gained $332,000 while Seattle homes have gained only $579,000. That’s the kind of clever parsing that’s helped you get the frustration you’ve got.

    I think the best time to buy houses was the 1970’s, but I’m sure that’s not what you think.

    The question was an attempt to get to what we were supposed to understand by your phrase “a few years back”. And more precisely, a little prod to see if you understood “best time to buy” in real time, or just something you see in the rear view mirror. Thanks, I think I got my clarification.

  13. 263
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 258
    I’ve wondered about that very thing, so I’ve been looking for articles on the topic…

    Here is one from Bloomberg about a month ago, mentioning HK interest in six different international cities. Seeing as how not one of them is Seattle, I think it’s fair to assume that any HK money will be spread out a bit, if it ever appears at all.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/hong-kongers-eye-property-deals-in-canada-u-k-to-escape-tumult

    Keep in mind, about $1.2 trillion left China in roughly 10 years ( The vast majority of which was before china’s capital controls were implemented). No way that Hong Kong will come even close to filling that gap.

  14. 264
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 261 – A $135k home in Portland in 1991 is worth $563k today. A $135k home in Seattle is $526.5k today. Do you need help with math?

    By your logic, you should always buy a house in the most expensive city. It’s still not too late to move to SF/Vancouver.

  15. 265

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 262

    I had a trust client back in the 70s and/or early 80s who bought a double unit in Rittenhouse Square to get some of her money out of Hong Kong.

    https://www.redfin.com/PA/Philadelphia/1911-Walnut-St-19103/unit-4801/home/169038611

    Not that exact unit (I don’t think) but similar. I remember her telling me at the time that her assets were all on a 99 year lease, everyone’s assets were on a 99 year lease, and she would lose everything if she didn’t get it out.

    She used the “child going to school in U.S.” as the reason for buying here, the same as many do now. It was true. But the reason the child was going to school here was to get the money out.

    Was there a beginning to Chinese doing this? Was there a gap when they didn’t do it between when I first saw it 45 years or so ago and now?

    Or has there always been Chinese money escaping to the U.S. in the form of property purchases?

    I remember cash coming in from other Countries as well from people who feared the government was going to confiscate their money and assets. Seems reasonable for people to want to do that. We seem to support the people escaping terrible conditions in their countries. Why wouldn’t we support people trying to preserve their assets from confiscation?

    This topic not my forte. Just makes sense to me that we would help people who have this problem.

  16. 266
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 264
    Re: Hong Kong – James Clavell has a couple VERY good and mostly fictional books on the topic.

    Hong Kong was always on a lease with China, and there was an expiration date and considerable uncertainty regarding what would happen as soon as it left the British Commonwealth and reverted to the communist government – part of the reason so much money went to Canada, which was also in the commenwealth.

    Fast forward a bit and Canadian citizens were fed up with getting priced out of the real estate market so they added a surtax on foreign purchases. Are you suggesting that they were wrong to protect their own citizens over people that were frequently buying (expensive) properties for investment?

    A lot of the money from China is coming from graft and corruption ( which I think is probably pretty normal for a communist regime), but I’m sure a significant amount is also legitimate.

    I’m not here to make a moral judgment.

    What I’m saying is that the spigots have been turned off, and even if some amount of capital has been leaving China for years, or if it’s still dribbling out right now, there is no good reason to expect to see anything like the massive outflows that we saw in 2015-2016ish.

  17. 267
    wellduh says:

    The best time to buy houses was in 300 BC

  18. 268
    JWoods says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 265
    Someone just posted that Portland housing had even greater price increase than Seattle in the past 30 years, do you attribute that to money flowing from China as well?

    To look at from another point of view, a lot of people here have been crying foul at the Seattle housing and its price increase, but reality is we are a lot less expensive than SF/Silicon valley/Vancouver, now it looks like we didn’t even match Portland in price appreciation, even with all these world class companies here, having two richest men in the world living here, etc.

    Perhaps Seattle is actually a bargain?

  19. 269
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 263:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 261 – A $135k home in Portland in 1991 is worth $563k today. A $135k home in Seattle is $526.5k today. Do you need help with math?

    Sorry, Dude. Like the MLS numbers, CSI tracks the dynamic market, not individual houses. Also, an x% change in the median cannot be readily applied across the spectrum of all prices. What good is math if you don’t know how to apply it?

    By your logic, you should always buy a house in the most expensive city. It’s still not too late to move to SF/Vancouver.

    By your logic, you should pay way above median to match the median of a more expensive city. Write when you get your Detroit palace.

    I notice that you again failed to answer at what time you thought prices were good, and why you did or didn’t buy then. At least own your perma-bear.

    Btw, regarding your post 234; I bought a 60 year old rental, and the IRS gave me 27.5 years to write it off. Does this mean that the IRS officially thinks houses last 87.5 years?

  20. 270
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 246
    Excellent point!

  21. 271
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: JWoods @ 266
    If Seattle was actually a bargain, would bidding wars go down from about 80% a year and a half ago down to less than 10% for the last two months?

    And keep in mind, those initial bidding wars may have had 5+ bids on a property – you only need two bids to count as a bidding war, and multiple bids have fallen off of a cliff.

    Re Vancouver, if foreign home purchasers weren’t a problem, would they have imposed the tax on foreign homebuyers (which then juiced the sales into the Seattle market)?

    Re Portland – Who knows what drives individual markets. Probably a lot of blame goes towards California, seeing as how they’ve been a problem since the 70s 😀

    https://www.opb.org/artsandlife/article/former-governor-tom-mccall-message-visitors/

  22. 272

    RE: Justme @ 256
    Skip over it then, that’s what the cursor is for.

    Do you folks with chronic iPhone use know how to speed read? This was taught in our Seattle public schools in the 60s. Its called IQ development BTW.

    If you don’t think livability issues don’t relate to Real Estate Sales you live on a different planet. Good luck predicting prices in the future for your investments if ya ignore it…LOL

  23. 273
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory is growing rapidly again. The 2019 summer droop was due to sellers that decided to refinance (just in case) instead of listing, and betting at the same time that prices would rebound. Wrong bet. #housingbubble #seattlebubble

    For inventory graph with hourly resolution , see

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1175420918669012992

  24. 274

    Ignore Seattle Livability News, Just Buy Real Estate By Shooting Wildly From the Hip, This News Story Won’t Matter at All….LOL

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/seattle-officer-files-claim-against-042552570.html

    I’ve heard the same police complaints about LA and SF area homelessness….its called diseases and filth folks.

  25. 275
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 271 – Weird, isn’t it? We are 16 months into declining prices, and we just hit the highest August median price ever.

  26. 276
    Deerhawke says:

    Most of the original housing stock in Seattle’s central neighborhoods was built in two waves between 1900-1910 and 1920-1928. So if you are using the IRS depreciation figures as a guide, all of it was shot by the mid-1950’s. But somehow people are still living there. Do you think we should tell them that their houses should have been condemned before they were born?

    There is also business property that is depreciated immediately. Does that mean it is useless immediately? If so, then why would you buy it?

    Clearly IRS depreciation rules are for accounting and tax reasons, not as an accurate gauge of the actual lifetime of an asset, much less a house or a rental property.

  27. 277
    Deerhawke says:

    By whatsmyname @ 273:

    RE: Justme @ 271 – Weird, isn’t it? We are 16 months into declining prices, and we just hit the highest August median price ever.

    +1. Perception is reality. After a long time of the market rocketing along, a period of stability feels like things are going backwards, even if they are going up a bit.

  28. 278
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 275 – Your “I like to look at the glass half full” and “Perception” statement:
    “Developers are notoriously optimistic and some can resemble lemmings running off cliffs, especially late in the business cycle. Then, Emerging Trends’ plot thickens: ‘Reinforcing the optimism about real estate’s ability to withstand a recession is satisfaction that the property sector’s discipline in this recovery means that ‘this time it won’t be our fault’ if the economy falters.’”

    “To be fair, the report admits to the fragility of the expansion. ‘We could be looking at an especially jolting shock to the system,’ Emerging Trends warmed. ‘In the short run, caution is advisable.’ It also reminds us that while coveted West Coast cities are expensive, high housing costs are a national phenomenon.’” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate-seers-expect-a-strong-2020-in-seattle-though-not-so-much-for-housingattle/

  29. 279
    sfrz says:

    This run is getting long in the tooth. Time for a shake up. How big? That is the question.

    “Look at several markets in the West. Seattle, where one of the country’s hottest housing markets is in rapid cool-down mode, leads the country with a 41.3% drop in competition for the week of September 22. Portland, Oregon buyers can expect a 35.5 drop in the competition that week. ”
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenparis/2019/09/19/the-black-friday-of-home-buying-is-approaching/#4ef04e7e181b

  30. 280
    sfrz says:

    We’re like Jack on the tip end of the Titantic as it’s standing on its nose in the final moments before sinking. The ship is going under and we’re at the top, secure in our safety. This thing is going down. The rich are busy hopping aboard life boats. Hold on and stock up on cash.

    “Wealthy Americans are selling their luxury real estate holdings faster than they’re buying new ones, TD Wealth senior vice president and regional investment director James Beam told Business Insider. The slow state of the luxury real estate market reflects this trend, Beam said.
    The dollar value of sales to Chinese nationals — the largest buyers of American residences besides Americans themselves — fell 56%. The report cited a global slowdown in economic growth, tightening restrictions on capital outflow from China, and issues with the existing housing inventory as causes.”
    https://www.businessinsider.com/ultra-wealthy-shy-away-from-real-estate-investments-recession-fears-2019-9

  31. 281
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: sfrz @ 278 – I have a theory on Chinese money that goes like this: As government pressure increases, money will go increasingly underground. This does mean that less new money will come here for investment. At the same time, money already here will keep a low profile, meaning that all those Chinese purchases from the last 10 years or so are more or less permanently off the market.

    This effect will be kind of similar to the Blackstone portfolio of SFR’s that are no longer available for 1st time buyers or mom and pop landlords. It doesn’t shrink housing, but it does shrink the for sale market.

    What do you think?

  32. 282
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: sfrz @ 276

    Talton is a smart guy. He has a good grasp of economics and the Seattle economy. Read the whole article online or in the Sunday paper.

    His comment about developers is correct. Put in plain English it is that many seemed to have learned their lesson. They stopped initiating projects earlier in the business cycle. They are now working on projects for 2-3 years onto the next cycle. I don’t how it is a problem that this time they are not overbuilding like lemmings.

    Your second post makes my point perfectly. No question that the level of multiple bids is down. How could it have kept up like in 2017? But 10 percent of homes in the area still getting 2 or more bids this late in the cycle. So that deceleration toward normal makes flat or slightly up FEEL like down.

    Chinese buyers have never been a factor in the Seattle market, except possibly high-end downtown condos. I think it has been part of the appreciation on the East side.

  33. 283
    sfrz says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 279 – I think the Chinese government is coming for their money. The homes purchased with ill-gotten gains will have a bright red bull’s eye painted on them. The owners of those homes will need a change of underwear and a neck brace from glancing behind them as they are hunted down. The hunt may be official – or worse- non-official.

    “Chinese investors face perils beyond garden-variety scams: the Chinese government is increasingly ruthless in punishing people who evade currency controls, and cities around the world are limiting foreign ownership and requiring disclosure of the true beneficial owners of newly purchased properties, making it easy for the Chinese authorities to punish people who buy offshore.” https://boingboing.net/2018/10/15/thats-what-xi-said.html

  34. 284
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 262
    HK money is already the major part of Vancouver BC real estate development. When I visited Vancouver, it is reminds me of HK. In 1997 when a lot HKnese escape when before tuning over, a lot of money flow into Vancouver. Big Vancouver build up since then. 20 years later, many HK people found the real wolf is coming, they are starting to immigrate to Taiwan and all over the world (mostly to Commonwealth countries like UK, Australia and US, the former British colony. They will purchase mostly on west coast where fly hr is shorter to HK. Many will choose Seattle and Vancouver. They will purchase are with low crime and good shool (like east side Bellevue, Kirkland and Issaquah, sorry Seattle, socialism is not cup of tea of Chinese poeple, they suffered enough for 1/2 century of socialism. Although HK money is will not the major part of new money. Local economy play the most important part of real estate boom in Seattle. Then there will be Indian money. If we had witness the Chinese boom during the last decade. We will witness the next Indian boom in the next decade. So I would focus in Redmond are close to MSFT compus in the next ten years.

  35. 285
    richard says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 280 – in your last paragraph,you downplayed chinese money influence in seattle. that is inaccurate, in single family house buying, there were a lot of bidding war from chinese nationals. i know this pretty well, there were a lot of chinese buying in north seattle and shoreline . also, as i explained in my previous post,different housing segments are not isolated. there is a dynamic between them to impact supply. i find in your post, you starts by saying a lot things which seem ok and even make a lot sense. but in the end,you give some questionable conclusion. i felt it is strange. i feel you are intentionally downplay the impact of chinese money either you know little about it or you want to let people igonore it. there are billions of dollars poured in seattle by chinese nationals and it is very strange just tobrush it off.

  36. 286
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: sfrz @ 281 – There is no reason to assume most of this money is “ill-gotten”. The big money is in commercial RE, owned anonymously through LLC’s. Except in rare cases, it would not be cost effective for the Chinese government to find and go after houses.

    Your quote confirms the government is active toward new money transfers, which will continue to be increasingly rare; but that’s all.

    That’s what I think. I also think BacktoBasics has a closer and better understanding of this than either of us. Plus I’m very interested in his/her comments on an Indian boom. Seems intuitive if you spend much time in Bellevue.

  37. 287
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 284
    To attractive indian buyers, developer 1sr need to build an indian temple in the area. then build project around it. architechure need to consider a multi-generation living unit cause indian traditionally live in a big family. indian are not as handy as americans. no old house for them. finance is not a problem since family will pool resource together. and one thing unique i noticed is indian particular like honda vehicle. so better to have a honda dealer in the area.

  38. 288
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 280
    LOL, China home buyers aren’t interested in Seattle? Have you ever been to University Village??

    There are a huge number of immigrants from China that are now in the Seattle area.

    Also, even if they WERE only on the east side, which is absolutely not true, that would still impact Seattle real estate prices.

    Do you really think people would commute to Seattle from Tacoma because housing is more fordable there, but then somehow the Seattle, Bellevue, Kirkland markets would stay in isolation and not impact each other?

    And people from India maybe immigrating, but they usually aren’t bringing big dollars with them for home purchases – They can’t replace the lost China cash flow.

  39. 289
    sfrz says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 285 – Plenty of temples over here across the water. Indian community is thriving and beautiful in the land of Microsoft.

    Amazon is going straight to the STEM source. Cutting costs of immigration for the H-1b (12-15k per contract employee) to start green card process. Capital is moving EAST and has been for years.

    “About a third of Amazon’s 62,000 employees in India are based in the city, and it has already moved more than 4,500 of them to the campus. The biggest buildings in Amazon’s Seattle home base house around 5,000 employees.

    “It is also the largest technology base outside Seattle,” Amazon India senior VP and country manager Amit Agarwal told the Times of India. “The [Hyderabad] employees include software development engineers, machine learning scientists, product managers, finance and many other functions.””
    https://www.engadget.com/2019/08/21/amazon-campus-india/

  40. 290
    Eastsider says:

    In today’s Seattle Times D-9, there is a full page sales ad on new waterfront condos.

    Unit#716 – Original price $881,900. Now, $699,900. But that is only the ‘asking’ price. The actual sales price after incentives/discount will likely be lower. We are at ‘peak’ pricing at 20%+ discount. LOL.

    Some people need a dose of reality.

  41. 291

    Great Blogs

    I hated the MASSIVE Quantitative Easing [welfare to the banksters] Obama used to support stock market growth from 2008 on to 2016. I felt and still do feel it was highly unethical. What could I do to stop it besides vote the establishment out?

    But at the end of the day, I also admitted you can’t fight City Hall either, so invested 100% in stocks that had QE welfare support anyway. I made out like a Cartel rogue bandit financially in those 8 years, especially since I started this 100% stock investment train right after the DOW 6000 911 attack, I needed to gamble on retirement, time was running out for me. Was it evil to invest where ya make lots of money in 15 years? Hades no in my book. No one takes care of our family’s future but us folks.
    Period. Ask Elizabeth Warren [she has $20M Wealth BTW] or Donald Trump [billionaire], they both did the same thing I did. If you don’t you’re a buffoon. Period. So making money on “alleged” evil/greed sources is a norm, not an exception. Just like foreclosures you buy to steal a home for cheap, if you don’t grab it up, someone else will anyway, so grab it up first.

    I see the average retiree has saved 152K $CASH$ and their pensions/annuities/etc, that’s way too little in my book, ya need 5-10 times more $CASH$ than that in my book per capita [for zero percent savings interest assumption retirement planning agenda], much more if you’re a couple retired. If you’re out of time, think higher risk, not lower risk. Consider this concern as you buy real estate too, or you’ll work until you die for sure.

  42. 292
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 288

    Sounds like this condo, adjacent to a big and well known football stadium :)

    https://www.highrises.com/seattle/listing/1421642-seattle-condominium-590-1st-ave-s-unit-716/

    699k is not a good price for 963ft at this not-so-great “waterfront” location. Maybe 449 would be an attractive price?

  43. 293
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 290 – Whaas up???? You can get the median King County single family house for the price of this tiny, ill-located condo. Things are not so bad.

  44. 294
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justme @ 290 – This is not an isolated instance. Many expensive homes are suffering too. The following listing came on the market more than a year ago at $4,980,000 but is now asking for $3,330,000, a good 1/3 off! We last saw such “fire sales” about a decade ago during the housing crash. (Fortunately for the seller, he acquired the property during the crash.)

    As I mentioned earlier, we now have 2 markets. If you don’t have the wherewithal to survive a downturn, my advise is to avoid taking on leveraged debt such as a mortgage. Leverage works both ways and you could lose your down payment and more in a downturn.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1241-Bigelow-Ave-N-98109/home/133319

  45. 295

    Let’s Hope the Snapshots of Rapid Price Decline the Bloggers are Demonstrating are True If You’re a Buyer and Off Key If Your a Seller/Landlord/Flipper

    Very interesting data, but even small samples are more relevant data when taken from a small sample [listed homes] in a sea of unlisted. They are in this case.

    What comes around goes around…time to enjoy a sunny day and gulp some Yuban

    Big News the Seattle Times Ignored Yesterday:

    Seattle Real Estate is addicted to China, time to switch countries, like to MSFT’s buddy, India….LOL…Houston Texas had a GIANT MAGA Rally of 50,000 stadium filled with mostly “dark skinned” foreign born from India and the Prime Minister of India spoke there too yesterday, with his arm around Orange Head, praising him for his WALL [keeps the India jobs safe in Texas]….they love Orange Head’s new trade deal.

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF [much of it omitted]
    Monday, September 23, 2019
    Forest ecologist Michael Case inspects a tree
    How restoring old-growth forest in Washington could help fight climate change
    Scientists like Michael Case, of the Nature Conservancy, are on a quest to restore a once-mighty southwest Washington forest where only a few patches of old growth remain. The thinking: Big trees store more carbon, reducing the impacts of climate change. But how do you spur young trees to grow bigger and faster in a warming world? Read about the cutting-edge ways the scientists are figuring out what works. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Traffic alert: The busiest corridor from Seattle’s Eastlake neighborhood into South Lake Union closed today for 18 months, affecting thousands of people. Know the likely ripple effects, and check traffic before you go.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 61. Low 57. Sunrise 6:57. Sunset 7:05.

    Great Job on Old Growth Seattle Times and its its link to the “alleged” Climate Change Theory. The rare mushrooms ya only find under old growth are worth like $100/lb. The spotted owl went extinct when Washington lost all its old growth in the 70s too….houses had better lumber for a few decades though, its much harder/better lumber. But everything has a finite limit, like how do they fertilize new crops on stripped lumbered down soil?

  46. 296

    You High Priced “Normal Listing” Establishment Sellers Balk at Erik and I Grabbing Up Deals to Sell Later For Profit, Like Proverbial Vultures to Flip Later

    https://fortune.com/2019/09/23/repo-market-big-deal-400-billion-bailout-unnerving/

    The foreclosure list is huge even during good times folks. Call it mental illness, sudden life calamities or unemployment, whatever….the “unavoidable” fun goes on and on….its not Recession Proof, not at all. There used to be a realtor’s paper you could buy from Kirkland, called the Investor’s Edge, it was a pool of Seattle “unlisted” foreclosures and was always a thick book. I remember the subscription cost was like $125 a copy in the early 90s, it included Title Check contacts too, to clear for liens. Realtors were the only ones that knew about it.

    The discounts were huge too, like 50-70% off retail.

    A realtor friend of mine shared it with me, he thought my $CASH$ savings was too big to just settle for listed prices.

  47. 297
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 292

    Jesus Jakobson. This has gotta be the fugliest McMossBox ever. I guess the taste for flat-top boxy-looking eyesores existed also in 1972. I’ll pay 1.5M and make 3 condos out of it(*). Or just get it done and make it a homeless shelter.

    (*) selling at 666 a piece, of course

  48. 298
    Matt P says:

    $699k for that condo isn’t bad for the location. It’s the $900+ eternal condo fee that will eat you alive.

  49. 299
    ronp says:

    RE: Justme @ 292 – I really like that building and developer and the location is unique, but pricing is a bit of an outlier. Maybe justified though.

    Walked past it at the last Sounders game and the bottom floor retail space is vacant and is waiting for a deep pocketed sports bar owner I guess?

  50. 300

    RE: Eastsider @ 294

    I ran some numbers this morning and on Friday so I’ll share a bit.

    The over $3Million houses represented 1% of all sales and are currently 5% of all inventory.

    I broke the King County houses, including townhomes that are not condos with condo fees, into 5 equal groups.

    20% of the sales (12 month rolling basis) were at $450k or less and there is currently a one month supply of those.

    20% of the sales were $450k to $600k and there is currently a 1.8 month supply of those.

    20% of the sales were $600k to $770k and there is a 2.2 month supply of those.

    20% of the sales were $770k to $995k and there is a 1.8 month supply of those.

    20% of the sales were $995k to $3M and there is a 3.1 month supply of those.

    Only 241 sold for $3 Million or more so the 218 for sale is a 10.9 month supply.

    I broke out the 20% that was $995 to $3M. 17% of that 20% was $1M to $2M with 2.7 months of supply in that group (this from the 3.1 above). The $2M to $3M was only about 2.5% of total sales and there is a 5.5 month supply of those.

    Sorry if those numbers don’t jive exactly. Sometimes a $1,000 difference in price captures a lot of sales, so the % are as close to breaking it into 5 groups of 20% as I could get.

    So the bottom 20% has about a one month supply.
    The middle 60% has about a 2 month supply.
    The top 17% has a 2.7 month supply.
    And the tippy, tippy top 3% has a 5.5 month supply and over $3M has a 10.9 month supply.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated in Real Time by Ardell and not compiled by, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  51. 301
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 300 – A big thank you for sharing! As I suspected, the high end market is not doing well. The recent upheaval in the repo market is not a good sign. I suspect huge loans for multi-million dollar homes may suddenly become less available. These trophy homes (top 3%) will continue their decline in the foreseeable future. Will it affect the broader market? That is the $64 million dollar question.

  52. 302

    RE: Eastsider @ 301

    I think the limit on mortgage deduction is having an impact, especially on the high end and pretty much anything over $1.5M or so. Do you know where the break point is on that as to home price based on a new purchase at say a 3.5% interest rate with 20% down? Has the mortgage deduction effectively been eliminated for all purchases over $225,000? Not sure I did that math correctly.

    I’m seeing it more in the over $1.5M category where people really wanted that big interest paid deduction and feeling like they don’t need to spend more on a house if they can’t write that off.

  53. 303
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 302
    The current tax law limits mortgage interest deduction on up to $750k principal. At 3.5% rate, the annual interest is $26k. This compares to $24.4k in standard deduction. Essentially, SALT deduction is no longer a consideration. (Sure, you can add other itemized deductions.)

  54. 304
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 301

    I would have phrased it as “Is what is happening at the expensive end of the market a SYMPTOM of a bust that will spread to the broader market”. I think the answer is YES.

  55. 305
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 301
    Where do you see a recent increase in foreclosures? Last I saw it was very slim pickens.

  56. 306
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 305

    He’s not talking about the repo-man or foreclosures , Erik. Google it.

  57. 307
    Justme says:

    Case-Shiller index for July is out

    The Case-Shiller index value for July 2019 (average for June-July-Aug) is out. Looks like the Seattle “spring price bump” stalled in July, with the index value at 256.13 being a measly 0.24% above the 255.54 value of the month before.

    There were conditions in effect that “normally” might have generated upward pressure on prices in this measurement period. Near record-low mortgage rates were in effect during much of the measurement period. The most eager and most rate-sensitive buyers might get tempted by that condition. Many otherwise would-be sellers decided to spend the summer re-financing rather than on listing and marketing their property as actively for sale, leading to a drop in active listing inventory. There was hope among potential sellers for prices rising again. But these conditions non-withstanding, the price gain was still measly and it looks like the much-ballyhooed “spring bump” in prices will not last.

    Only the most ardent bubble-mongers will be able to spin any propaganda about further price increases out of this data. But no doubt they will try.

    PS; The price peak was in May 2018.

  58. 308

    RE: sfrz @ 280 – Yes sfrz
    Get your $CASH$ out of locked boxes with 0-3% interest rates, pay the taxes on it and have it available for immediate foreclosure “wired” $CASH$ deals directly with banks and old owners. The rest of the buffoons will be filling out bank forms and you already grabbed up the Title…LOL…if they go to negative interest rates use a mattress or security safe instead.

  59. 309

    Grab Your Mug of Yuban and Read the Seattle Times Brief

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, September 24, 2019
    New video: Watch the Alaskan Way Viaduct come down, in just minutes
    This is all that remains of the Alaskan Way Viaduct along Seattle’s waterfront. The last portion, across the street from Colman Dock in Seattle, was torn down over the weekend. Here’s a very cool way to watch the demolition, condensed into less than seven minutes. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Seattle home prices may be turning around. After this became the only major U.S. city to post a year-over-year decline, the latest data indicate we’re teetering on the edge between growth and decline.

    Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan’s budget would top $6 billion for the first time, sending rivers of cash toward education, transit and housing. Here’s a breakdown of what’s in the budget and what happens next. Particularly notable: the mayor’s plans for bike lanes, bus lanes and sidewalks.

    “How dare you continue to look away!” Greta Thunberg, 16, gave world leaders a furious dressing-down at the United Nations yesterday, blasting their failure to tackle climate change. Watch her scathing speech. As Thunberg and others chart their next steps, President Donald Trump is speaking at the U.N. General Assembly today. Check for updates.

    The Seattle-area motorcycle community is rattled after five local dealerships owned by a Microsoft executive abruptly shut down. The closures are sparking panicked questions from customers who paid for motorcycles and don’t know when, or if, they’ll get their bikes.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SEATTLE SKETCHER
    Sketch of Lake Union Drydock Company
    Old Seattle is disappearing, but one of the city’s oldest shipyards is still above water. Enjoy these sketches of the proudly family-owned Lake Union Drydock Company, which just celebrated its 100th anniversary. (Gabriel Campanario / The

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Mostly cloudy. High 64. Low 52. Sunrise 6:58. Sunset 7:03.

    The Seattle Bubble Bloggers brainwashed the Seattle Times? Perhaps. The news today on home price decreases and uncertainty by the Seattle Times is right on in my book. Certainly not the “all is OK” ranting on Seattle real estate from their journalists most of the time , much more neutral…excellent reporting ;-)

    LOL…the phony environmentally friendly folks say plastics are horrifying…you need to stop eating then. Almost all food costs are totally the plastic containers they’re sold in….check out the land fill and recycling quantities, its almost all plastics for food at super markets…the food inside the plastic containers is essentially free [so what the Hades good does cheap farm labor mean to the consumer in comparison]…LOL

    But da_nit, don’t suck with plastic in a straw???…LOL….we’ve lost our minds?

  60. 310
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 302
    Here is another reason why the claim that mortgage deduction is having an impact is nonsensical. The 52-week high on 30yr mortgage rate was 5.05%. Today, it is 3.72%. (Source:mortgagenewsdaily.com). That is a 26% discount from the high. So you get reduced mortgage payment via Fed’s rate cut instead of IRS tax deduction. If the rate drops further, there may not be anything worth deducting. Think about it…

  61. 311
  62. 312
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 307

    Prices may resume the downward move sooner than people think. I know Microsoft has quietly laid some people off at HQs this past month. It remains to be seen whether that is usual pruning or something more. When S&P profits are shrinking, companies get worried. The companies most worried about stock market performance start the layoffs.

    Also, the large service sector of the economy, which as been strong the past few years, appears to be slowing.

  63. 313
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: N @ 311
    Btw, I believe the -.06% YOY change that was quoted in the article was in error.

    CNBC and the data in the actual table show -.6%.

    10x higher, that’s huge!!!!😜

  64. 314
    ruxpert says:

    Despite new capital controls imposed by Beijing in recent years to reduce of outflows from China to foreign markets, some Mainland Chinese are still seeking safe places to park their capital, with many choosing foreign housing markets.

    Kenneth Chan | Jul 18 2019

    Seattle is the ‘new Vancouver’ when it comes to Chinese housing investment

    https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/seattle-vancouver-housing-market-chinese-investment

  65. 315
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 314
    Link doesn’t work…

    Coincidentally enough, that is almost the exact same title as the one for this article 2 years ago:

    https://windermerepremier.wordpress.com/2017/02/11/for-chinese-home-buyers-seattle-is-the-new-vancouver/

    Maybe your guy needs to work on some new material… 😀

  66. 316
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 315

    the link works
    https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/seattle-vancouver-housing-market-chinese-investment

    “How many people will go to what lengths for needless noise and conflict” ?

  67. 317
    ruxpert says:

    Seattle-area apartment rents show some big annual gains for the start of September

    Bellevue and Redmond are particularly expensive now, according to Zumper

    https://seattle.curbed.com/2019/9/17/20870987/seattle-area-apartment-rents-september-2019

  68. 318
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Joe @ 312

    Kind of odd. The people I know at Microsoft, especially related to Azure and anything AI-related, said they are having a tremendous problem hiring. It is kind of amazing what they pay people for, in essence, writing in a obscure foreign language that will be dead in a few years. They should hire Sanscrit scholars and just train them– bound to be cheaper.

    Same at Google, same at Facebook, same at Amazon. (Don’t know anybody at Apple or Tableau/Salesforce.)

    Don’t get me wrong. They are very picky and want the right resume and level of experience. They seem to spend a lot of time on hiring but missfire on most of the people they make offers to.

  69. 319
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 300

    Thank you for the thought and analysis you put into this.

  70. 320
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 317

    >>Seattle-area apartment rents show some big annual gains for the start of September
    >>Bellevue and Redmond are particularly expensive now, according to Zumper

    Did you read the table? Bellevue rent was DOWN yoy both for 1br and 2br. But 1br dropped the most, perhaps many renters are saving 40% by getting a 2br and a roommate? Which means 1br rents are still too high.

    Redmond was up, but the methodology is based on VACANT apartments. Perhaps many of them NEW construction, fancy buildings and nobody has signed a lease due to the high price asked. We have talked about this methodology problem before!

    Renton is up, but maybe from people fleeing to Renton from Seattle and Eastside because Renton is still much cheaper, even the new construction?

    Conclusion: Mostly hot air and wishful thinking. There are massive amounts of empty apartments in Seattle Metro, especially the new and expensive kind shown in the Zumper data. The building boom has been well documented.

  71. 321
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 316
    RE: Juststoppedby @ 315

    This article from Reuters yesterday quotes estimates from Chinese RE web site Juwai.com that China-funded purchases in the US are at an 8 year low. Some local Seattle bubble-mongers are trying to argue that Seattle is a “secondary gateway market”. Yeah, let me know how that works out for you.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-homesales-china-graphic/chinese-us-homebuying-to-hit-eight-year-low-says-leading-property-site-idUSKBN1W815I

  72. 322

    Great Blog Deerhawke, Real Estate Sales Depends a Lot More on “High Paid” Bogus MSFT Hiring Balloons Never Intended to Fill to Rationalize Lower Paid H-1B Replacements

    IMO, Real Estate sales would have benefited from “uninformed” foreign buyers who’ll likely pay anything [sell their souls too?] for any Seattle home purchases. Seller hype is more believable when the buyers are less inclined to care about affordability, especially living in poverty OVERPOPULATION Hades Holes like India, compared to America. The problem is now the prices have gotten so high, even they feel crowded out of the market. IMO, that method of selling Seattle homes went the way of the dinosaur. Why do you suppose the Orange Head’s Rally to build the WALL in Houston was filled with “dark skins” from India, they’re not the Uber Rich, they’re the $20/hr crowd now?

    Other uncertainty factors in the real estate price prediction game is no health care solutions and infrastructure planning by the House, all they want to do is chase Orange Head around with a baseball bat instead of what the voters want: stable jobs with high pay and lower health benefit costs. Its making the uncertainty factor much worse when endless futile investigations have replaced a real agenda of price increase and hope. The middle class is forgotten over their petty partisan power plays IMO for futile impeachment, and its galvanizing the Orange Head supporters, not weakening them. Don’t ever play chess with Orange Head, he’s 4 moves ahead of them apparently.

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019

    Boeing is amping up its safety oversight with a new committee that will supervise airplane development and manufacturing. That’s among changes announced today by the company. And the FAA misled Congress on Boeing’s 737 MAX jets, investigators have found, adding to concerns about the agency.

    The Seattle Times editorial board had a lot of questions for Tim Eyman and for opponents of I-976 in a recent editorial board meeting. What other questions do you have about $30 car tabs?

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 67. Low 58. Sunrise 7:00. Sunset 7:01.

    I omitted the Brief’s political ranting that is an “how dare you attack Biden that way”, DOJ prosecution is looking at it as a criminal investigation against Biden now, Congress is a moot point now too, its out of their SOP control.

    OK, Climate Change has DRASTICALLY increased Polar Bear populations, what animal species is reducing because of it? Its not the bees either, that was Roundup Spray in the farm fields they say now. Too much “doncha know” and not enough detailed raw data to back it up Seattle Times.

    Uncertainty in real estate is simultaneously tangled in this mess now too, we’ve become less inclined to believe everything the establishment says is true.

    Great blog Deerhawke.

  73. 323

    Wages are Low at Costco Now Too and the Hours are Seven Days a Week Per Capita Reports a New 26 YO Milenial Worker to Me Yesterday, the Oldest Daughter of the MSFT Laid Off Family of Six Next Door and Still Living With Parents

    She tells me she works a grueling seven day work week and has no social life.

    The $20/hr teachers in Kent are working two jobs to make ends meet too. High Paying Jobs and real estate price increases go hand in hand. BTW if ya work two jobs to survive in Seattle they count that as two people working in the total employment counts…LOL…the house of cards is crumbling in Seattle.

    BTW, old SWE gets along much better with the “normal Joe $20/hr” Milenials than establishment prone Gen-X and Baby Boomers Uber Rich….they mostly agree with me too. Albeit we all are fighting the same dragons…my friend groups are mostly them now.

  74. 324
    ruxpert says:

    According to a new report from Zillow, in June, median rents in Seattle rose to $2,259, up 3.8% from the same time a year prior.

    While Seattle housing stays flat, median rent continues to rise

    https://komonews.com/news/local/while-seattle-housing-stays-flat-median-rent-continues-to-rise

  75. 325
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 324RE: ruxpert @ 324

    The average rent for an apartment in Seattle is $2,130, a 3% increase compared to the previous year.

    https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/wa/seattle/

  76. 326
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 324
    RE: ruxpert @ 325

    A three percent rent increase sure seems substantial to the tenant. But it is just maybe enough for the property owner to keep up with increases in property taxes, rising assessments, and higher insurance payments. Or maybe not.

  77. 327
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 325
    According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index, Seattle area — August 2019, were up 3.2 percent from a year ago. Wages and salaries advanced at a 2.9-percent pace for the 12-month period ended June 2019. So rent increase is basically keeping pace.

  78. 328
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 324

    No reference to the Zillow data? Another survey of ASKING prices rather than actual rented prices?

  79. 329
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 325

    Again, rentcafe is an outlet that publishes ASKING prices from their own apartment listing service, which is all higher-end stuff. I say a big “meh” to this propaganda.

    Come on, with all the empty expensive apartment buildings in Seattle, it is no surprise if the average list price on some higher-end apartment listing website is up. I wonder when these apartments will be listed and rented at prices that renters are actually willing and able to pay. You know, as per the theory of free and efficient markets and all that ;-). I’m sure all those apartment capitalists are big proponents of free and efficient markets. Just not for their own apartments.

  80. 330
    Justme says:

    Oh, and why do the bubble-mongers always highlight these already bogus rent asking price surveys exactly at the summer asking-price peak of the rental market, when landlords are hard at work trying to fool both the new graduate job-seekers and the incoming freshmen to overpay?

  81. 331

    RE: Erik @ 305
    Its the Unlisted Ones You Can’t Count Erik

    The foreclosures by the banks before eviction….that’s the big list to work on, even though its apparently shadow [unless you know the Raw Data Source?] and hard to locate [make friends with realtors that do it, they may assist you too, like they did me]. IMO, any of this unlisted stock left to list is way too junky and/or high in price. Deal directly with the old owner and negotiate a “short-sell with the bank VP and owner, e.g.”….its not an easy task, you need to be part psychologist and part gambler luck, good-luck….LOL

    Kary may have additional information on the legal milestones to repossessions. Sometimes this process lasts years too, with the owner living rent free for years too. That’s why the banks love to get these off the books and out of their hair ASAP. Did you know if someone lives with you for more than 3 days you have to “theoretically” evict them and they can live rent rent free more months? Ya see why I’m still single…LOL

  82. 332

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, September 26, 2019

    NEED TO KNOW
    The NTSB today is faulting Boeing for the way it tested the flight-control system that later went haywire in two 737 MAX crashes. Boeing failed to account for how pilots would respond to an overload of warning messages in the cockpit, the board says, adding that modern jets need much better pilot-alert systems than what they have now.

    The whistleblower complaint against President Donald Trump was made public today (read it here). It alleges that Trump abused his power, and that the White House tried to “lock down” records of the phone call in which he urged Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden. The nation’s spy chief is speaking today about why he withheld the complaint from Congress for weeks; check back for updates. More:

    Democrats are speeding up their impeachment inquiry after a record of Trump’s phone call landed like a bomb on Capitol Hill. But the party faces tremendous political peril.
    Does it ever really work to “recall” an email? A White House official learned a painful lesson with an email about impeachment.
    Seattle drivers may have noticed a rather risqué road sign calling for impeachment. Here’s how that happened.

    Seattle’s median income has taken a big jump, soaring $7,000 in just one year. Only two major cities have higher medians. But odds are you don’t feel richer, because most of us didn’t get big fat raises. FYI Guy breaks down what’s happening and who’s ending up with all this dough.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    Privacy questions are swirling after Amazon rolled out new devices, part of a sweeping vision that permeates nearly every aspect of life. The gee-whiz devices include three that would move Amazon’s microphones directly onto people. Would you wear these?

    “Could he be the one?” The feds are suing Match.com, accusing the company of scamming hundreds of thousands of customers with messages advertising love interests that never existed. Nearly half a million people bought subscriptions within 24 hours of receiving the messages, according to the FTC.

    King County sheriff’s deputies shot a 17-year-old at least eight times as he ran away from them. It turned out the teen, Mi’Chance Dunlap-Gittens, had nothing to do with the crime they were trying to solve. His family has sued over the misguided 2017 operation, alleging it was “reckless” and deputies lied afterward. Read our Times Watchdog story on how the deadly sting unfolded.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Amazon’s pledge to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions from 44.4 million metric tons globally to zero by 2040 deserves praise. But stronger accountability and transparency regulations are needed to ensure companies live up to stated goals, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 65. Low 52. Sunrise 7:01. Sunset 6:59.

    The news on the Biden’s and Ukraine missing from Seattle Times….”pay to play” may be illegal/corrupt but its OK if its Biden? LOL…Seattle Times is right, its risky and for a plethora of reasons too, the majority of Americans polled are against it too. Let’s not open the Biden Pandora Box.

    Wages basically frozen in Seattle [0% COLA] except the top 1% incomes? Even if you got raise, its dinky, like 1-2%, $20/mo approx.

    Amazon is a haughty hypocrite on the environment, cramming plastic in their boxes and shipping stuff by huge CARBON FOOTPRINT and paying no federal income tax. I’m on their side, how the Hades do we ship MASS stuff without harming the environment with tons of waste? The Tooth Fairy? Or turn us all into penniless peasants…LOL

  83. 333
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 330

    And what about all concessions? One month of free-rent reduces the annual rent by over 8%. Mild changes in concessions would throw the rent statistics out of whack.

    I drive to my gym in Redmond and see a new apartment complex that was put up 1-2 years ago. In the last month or so, a “free-rent” sign just popped up. They obviously need to offer price concessions to fill the units.

  84. 334
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 331
    I tried working with people being foreclosed on and it’s a major hassle. Last time I did that, the guy ended up not delivering the paperwork on time and he foreclosed anyway after I signed to purchase and sales agreement.

    Someone bought the property at foreclosure auction the next day for around the same price I was gonna buy it for. I like to buy at the auction because it’s much easier than dealing with people. :)

  85. 335
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 333

    Very good point, Joe, about the 1 month free rent. There you have it. Maybe Redmond 1br are -3.2% YoY rather than +4.8% (Curbed/Zumper reference). Speak about high margin of error. And of course, the 1-month-free ruse is especially common for those top-of-line apartments whose prices landlords love to talk about.

  86. 336
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 306
    The reason you, Sfrz, and Joe always have the opposite viewpoint is this… you 3 like to read news articles and study advanced economic topics. That’s great, but all 3 do this without understanding the fundamentals aloft a real estate market. You ignore the fundamentals and head straight for the current advanced concepts. That’s why you are unable to understand the market.

    That’s why I’m always advising to read books to you three. It’s obvious you don’t understand the fundamentals and instead just advanced topics. If you understood the fundamentals first, you could understand the market much better and ultimately put more money in your pockets.

  87. 337
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 306
    I suspect you’ll just argue with me and continue doing what you are doing as that seems to be your process. You don’t seems dumb, but it does seem that you don’t understand the real estate fundamentals.

  88. 338
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 337
    Try this one out I just watched…
    https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

    We are headed for recession, not devaluation. I suspect real estate prices to not go down enough to even bother with selling. Trump will push to lower rates and housing prices will go up. I’ll probably sell a unit or 2 when that happens and start praying for a devaluation bust.

  89. 339

    RE: Erik @ 334

    Usually the owner is better off being foreclosed on if it’s a Trustee Sale vs a Judicial Foreclosure because the lienholder, at least the 1st one, has to take what he gets and never come back for the difference. That is not always true if the owner does a short sale. That is why you shouldn’t try to buy a house as a short sale unless you know the owner has consulted an attorney. Often the attorney will advise against selling it short and tell the seller to let it go to foreclosure. That advice can come at the last minute, as happened to you.

    Lots of other considerations, but it’s not usually “people” but the reality of the owner’s protections and lack thereof that come into play.

  90. 340
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 339
    The whole thing was pretty strange and in the end was unable to get this beautiful downtown Kirkland condo to close. The wife had no objections to moving there.

  91. 341

    RE: Erik @ 340
    Join Toastmasters Erik

    I know this sounds lame and you don’t have time for it, like a weekly hour meeting….but its been my experience that it increases the odds on ‘”dealing with psychological issues of the huge unlisted pool” or any turmoil for that matter [with owners stressed out, mentally ill(?) and desperate]. The old owner I dealt with communicated directly with the bank VP and I on a short sell negotiation, albeit it was hard to get smooth contact with a 3rd party involved [I wrapped up the deal with Escrow in 10 days, but it seemed like 10 weeks], I sweetened the pot a couple times on closing costs and delinquent rent not collected. Perhaps the money is running dry and auctions are working better at getting a low price anyway. For your sake I hope that’s not the case, it could also mean prices are coming down with a dried up economy on listed units too. I kept emphasizing to the bank VP that this deal was “seamless”, since I was leaving the old tenants in the unit with no eviction and the old owner kept their credit rating. The owner fish finally bought the worm, but was very hard to contact quickly…

    Toastmasters has been good for me on work performance grading and politics too…let’s put it this way, it works on everything, including a better social life. When this old single dog can sweet talk a 26 YO babe into a date [I did], there’s got to be something to it….LOL

  92. 342

    Grab Your Yuban Its Time for Tailored:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, September 27, 2019
    Felix Hernandez lifts his cap

    The CIA officer who blew the whistle on President Donald Trump moved swiftly behind the scenes, pulling together material from at least a half-dozen highly placed U.S. officials as he almost single-handedly set in motion the gears of impeachment. Here’s what we know about him (and the controversy surrounding that information), along with six takeaways from his complaint. More:

    Red flags went up at the White House as soon as Trump put the phone down with Ukraine’s president. It wasn’t long before officials learned a firestorm was coming.
    The record of the call was handled in a highly unusual way, shining a light on possible abuse of a computer system cloaked in shadows.
    What about the claims Trump is making about the Bidens and Ukraine? Fact-checkers are crying foul.
    For a nation already blazing with anger and animosity, this is like “adding matches and several buckets of gasoline.” Across the country, Americans are digging in.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    WORTH A READ
    Overdose deaths are spiking across King County, driven by drugs laced with fentanyl. The synthetic narcotic is much more potent than other opioids like heroin.

    LOL…why is the Congress just “inquiring [stalling?]” on an impeachment vote Pelosi? Put up or shut up, let’s get the real Impeachment vote “yes” on their record and watch GOP control the House again in 2020? Come on, why wait? Because Pelosi knows she doesn’t have the votes and most Americans are against impeachments in general? Get to work Congress, we want higher wages, better jobs, higher real estate prices and lower health care costs, you are a bunch of useless do nothings for the Bubblehead home owners.

  93. 343
    BacktoBasics says:

    A minor correction (<-10%) is not worth for home owner to sell the house. 6% fee+tax+refreshing the house would cost 10%-15%. For buyers, it might worth to wait when house has 10-20% price cut and sub 4% mortgage rate and hopefully you can qualify for a loan (during recession, bank has tough rule on your income and credit). in this market, sell unless you have to sell due to relocation or job change. I see this is a very balanced market. Seattle housing has 10 year cycle.

  94. 344
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 338

    “We are headed for recession, not devaluation.” I think you mean deflation (assets) rather than devaluation (currency).

    No question that there are some storm clouds in the national and international economic forecast, including Brexit (or not), an impeachment investigation, a disruptive election, etc. During this next year, we will live in interesting times.

    But the local forecast looks relentlessly sunny.

    Interesting article on Geekwire yesterday. Facebook is now the #3 tech employer in the region. It has added 2000 new employees here in the last year alone and now totals 5000 . It has 18 offices in the area and opened a new one in SLU this week. Check it out.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/facebook-grows-5000-employees-seattle-region-opens-18th-office-downtown-tower/

    I sold a house to a middle manager for Facebook 2 years ago. He told me he is constantly on the lookout for talent and he has a virtually open budget line for hiring programmers and programming managers. They even pay a bounty to employees who help make a successful hire.

    Seattle is the HQ2 of all the Bay Area tech companies.

  95. 345
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 343

    Good point. During a recession banks make it harder to get mortgages, close lending operations, lay off mortgage processors, etc. so even if you could time the bottom (hard) and had the guts to buy when others are selling (harder) you may not be able to get the financing you need.

    The other factor that goes in the opposite direction of waiting is seasonality. I have always found the best deals during the last quarter of the year, specifically between Halloween and Christmas. People have tax reasons for selling. But it is mainly psychological. Because it is cold, wet and dark, people feel a pressing need for certainty.

    Are you more likely to do better at the end of 2019 (with the upcoming prospect of Brexit, impeachment and electoral chaos) or after the election in 2020?

    Tough choice. If you are a making a long term commitment to the area, get all your paperwork in order and be opportunistic.

  96. 346
    BacktoBasics says:

    Seattle already No 3 highest medium household income in the nation at $93000. Let say 6x of income=550K is the medium house price at 3.5% mortgage level. If we look at bell curve with six-sigima normal distribution, there are many household making 200k /year which could easily afford 6x200k=1.2 mil house or family make less than 40K which might qualify them for low income apt. Anyway, glad to see Seattle is doing better than national average.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/subscribe/signup-offers/?pw=redirect&subsource=paywall&return=https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-median-income-soars-to-93500-but-wealth-doesnt-reach-everyone-census-data-shows/

  97. 347
    Any says:

    By Deerhawke @ 344:

    RE: Erik @ 338
    Seattle is the HQ2 of all the Bay Area tech companies.

    Don’t be ridiculous. Obviously Facebook and Google are currently two of the most important Bay Area tech companies, but that’s a far, far cry from Seattle being “HQ2 for all the Bay Area tech companies.”

    To start with, from FAANG Apple and Netflix don’t have anything close to a HQ2 presence here. And many more too numerous to mention, both old and new, that don’t have that kind of presence here either.

  98. 348
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Any @ 347
    That’s because we don’t have the top universies (like UC Berkley and Stanford) to produce advanced research. UW is not enough and not top notch. Seattle need to invest more in advanced research. Standford was founded by railway millionaire.

  99. 349
    N says:

    @Deerhawke – Will you be looking to buy the right deals in Q4 or waiting it out?

  100. 350
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Little Hyderabad is unstoppable! Anyone have the monthly stats on h1b fluctuations? Can we get a historical comparative analysis regarding % of population doing slave labor? Little Hyderabad has got to be moving up the charts!! People complain about the housing in little Hyderabad, but leaky, molding moss boxes really aren’t that bad taking a historical look at slave housing. Any one have the trends on middle managers to slave ratios? Deerhawke needs masters to sell master housing to. 90% ball shining slaves is just about right to keep the little Hyderabad housing on the up and up.

  101. 351
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 344
    Apologies, I meant deleveraging as explained in the Ray dalio video I posted.

    I’m using fancy words to say this expansion is from the short term predictable curve and likely won’t cut deeper than it already has. I think the short term pain is over for now because trump pushed down interest rates and boosted investor confidence with his words. This government interference will cause the next recession to be more dramatic, but that’s down the road. We should get one or two more up cycles to sell before the next substantial crash.

  102. 352
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 349

    At this point, I am already fully invested, so it will be next year.

  103. 353
    steve says:

    Just in case dude forgot to post this, here you go:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, September 26, 2019

    NEED TO KNOW
    The NTSB today is faulting Boeing for the way it tested the flight-control system that later went haywire in two 737 MAX crashes. Boeing failed to account for how pilots would respond to an overload of warning messages in the cockpit, the board says, adding that modern jets need much better pilot-alert systems than what they have now.

    The whistleblower complaint against President Donald Trump was made public today (read it here). It alleges that Trump abused his power, and that the White House tried to “lock down” records of the phone call in which he urged Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden. The nation’s spy chief is speaking today about why he withheld the complaint from Congress for weeks; check back for updates. More:

    Democrats are speeding up their impeachment inquiry after a record of Trump’s phone call landed like a bomb on Capitol Hill. But the party faces tremendous political peril.
    Does it ever really work to “recall” an email? A White House official learned a painful lesson with an email about impeachment.
    Seattle drivers may have noticed a rather risqué road sign calling for impeachment. Here’s how that happened.

    Seattle’s median income has taken a big jump, soaring $7,000 in just one year. Only two major cities have higher medians. But odds are you don’t feel richer, because most of us didn’t get big fat raises. FYI Guy breaks down what’s happening and who’s ending up with all this dough.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    Privacy questions are swirling after Amazon rolled out new devices, part of a sweeping vision that permeates nearly every aspect of life. The gee-whiz devices include three that would move Amazon’s microphones directly onto people. Would you wear these?

    “Could he be the one?” The feds are suing Match.com, accusing the company of scamming hundreds of thousands of customers with messages advertising love interests that never existed. Nearly half a million people bought subscriptions within 24 hours of receiving the messages, according to the FTC.

    King County sheriff’s deputies shot a 17-year-old at least eight times as he ran away from them. It turned out the teen, Mi’Chance Dunlap-Gittens, had nothing to do with the crime they were trying to solve. His family has sued over the misguided 2017 operation, alleging it was “reckless” and deputies lied afterward. Read our Times Watchdog story on how the deadly sting unfolded.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Amazon’s pledge to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions from 44.4 million metric tons globally to zero by 2040 deserves praise. But stronger accountability and transparency regulations are needed to ensure companies live up to stated goals, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 65. Low 52. Sunrise 7:01. Sunset 6:59.

  104. 354
    Joe says:

    I’m noticing a LOT more homes for sale on Lake Sammamish than usual, and it seems to be accelerating. These are the higher priced homes in the $2-$4M range. I didn’t see this many since the last bubble.

    I guess they are trying to lock in the high price near the top. Can’t blame them.

  105. 355

    Great Blogs Everyone

    The Times News Brief isn’t in my email, it may come later.

    Not much change in likelihood of an impeachment stock crash knuckle punching housing prices in Seattle, but WSJ reports blurbs on FOX [WSJ a pay per view news URL now], what I heard from FOX was anything is theoretically possible even with impeachment with an innocuous Executive phone-call transcript nothing burger. The most likely outcome of continued impeachment surveillance by the Open Border Party will likely end up hurting Biden and his son [Biden’s already a sinking ship in the polls]. BTW, WSJ is generally establishment bent, but is very concerned about the “far left” Warren/Bernie Medicare for all and/or tax increases to pay for this type of “anti-establishment” welfare platter.

  106. 356

    The Infamous 737/767 Boeing Defects Haunting Seattle Home Prices this Halloween?

    IMO, and I’m retired 35 years Safety Engineering audit experienced and skilled is hand writing on the wall.

    When the engineering part drawings aren’t in English any more for commercial A/C…its game over. Period. We need to get our defense A/C systems back in English again or we’re buffoons. The commercial only 737 and 7X7 also have too much outsourcing and the end products are turning out junk too.

  107. 357
    Armk says:

    For those of you that live in / are considering Eastgate, any thoughts on the homeless shelter? I think it’s slated to go up in 2022 but afaik it has been approved despite opposition of local residents. Online comments also mention that Bellevue “screws over” Eastgate time and time again – is that a fair statement, and is Eastgate systematically mistreated by the Bellevue local politicians in some way? Out of the loop here, if anyone cares to enlighten.

  108. 358
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 307

    Thanks for summarizing the Shiller data, which offers a reliable view of things.

    Interest rates dropped a full point rather quickly, yet house prices did not rise. This result may be due to the nature of buyer demand in Seattle, which stems from foreign money and people moving for jobs. Both these groups are not that interest-rate sensitive.

    Regarding fast money and jobs, it appears the China fast money has clearly started to dry up. I heard China investment recently hit an 8-year low. Also, the jobs scene appears healthy at this moment, but with S&P profits dropping for the 3rd quarter in a row, it may be only a matter of time before job growth slows and potentially turns negative with layoffs.

    The problematic issue here is that job growth can dry up in an instant, and along with it, the RE market. Once companies start cutting fat, and trimming new investments, it could establish a convincing medium term price downtrend.

    People like to cite every factor under the sun when projecting RE prices, but it seems everybody agrees that job growth, or lack thereof, is a primary factor.

  109. 359
    Justme says:

    Weekend inventory update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory: Two days before the end of the month, realtors are busy closing sales and getting their hands on the commission check so they can pay their own rent. Hence the usual end-month slowdown in new listings. More listings to come next week

    Follow link for a detailed hour-by hour graph of inventory over the last 3 years.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1177984366623875074

  110. 360
    Deerhawke says:

    Actually inventory for the month appears flat or a bit up from last month, which is a surprise. I thought it would be flat to a bit down. We did have a bit more of a fall market an I anticipated. But that is gone now and the year is winding down.

    Either way, people will soon realize inventory is down substantially year-on-year. 2019 will go down in the books looking a lot like 2014.

  111. 361
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 360 – I was expecting a possible September inventory spike. (From Tim’s 19 year chart), it happens quite frequently, including each of the last 3 years.

    October, November and December are a different story, however. Inventory down; every month, every year.

  112. 362
    Justme says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 346

    You get an F failing grade for that nearly data-free propaganda paragraph of yours. But I’ll give you a chance to make it up with a special assignment that addresses some of the many shortcomings of what you wrote.

    1. What is the standard deviation of income in Seattle? Is the distribution really a “bell curve”, i.e. normally distributed? (hint: no!)

    2. Whats the fraction of already existing homeownership along the income distribution?

    3. What is the distribution of savings balances (for downpayment), and debt balances along the income distribution , for renters and homeowners seen separately?

    4. Provide links to any ACS data you used, and any other data you use.

    5. What makes you think 6X gross income is a viable price point for going into mortgage debt?

    6. How come this supposedly well-off pool of buyers is not filling up all the empty apartments in Seattle? They surely can afford it, can’t they?

    7. Can’t find the data you need? Can’t construct a solid argument? Then you have been just spouting propaganda.

    You have your work cut out for you. Please report back once you have done all the legwork. I’m not planning on doing it for you. Meanwhile, anyone who is remotely tempted to buy based on B2B’s lazy handwaving propaganda: Buyer beware.

  113. 363
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 359:

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory: Two days before the end of the month, realtors are busy closing sales and getting their hands on the commission check so they can pay their own rent. Hence the usual end-month slowdown in new listings. More listings to come next week

    I am so mad at my realtors. All this time they could reduce closing times to a few days based on their immediate cash flow needs?

    It’s not possible that you would make up a ridiculous fiction to simultaneously belittle your enemies and misrepresent the market.

    Where do you think inventory will (temporarily) be at the end of October?

  114. 364
    sfrz says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 356 – “If it’s Boeing, I ain’t going.” Looking for airlines that fly Airbus. Looks like American out of SEA to the East coast.

  115. 365
    S-Crow says:

    Read this article below from an insider who knows what is going on behind the scenes.

    Sept 25th Article from Raoul Pal’s Twitter (https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1177257592810328068) Via Real Vision : Miami real estate is about to collapse……..

    “I noticed that Miami property prices started to decline after a two or three-year period of leveling off. The pace of decline has clearly accelerated recently. Most properties on South Beach (where I live) are off by 20 to 35% from peak prices, but that is nothing compared to the carnage across the bridge in areas like Brickell and Edgewater. ”

    As the conversation in the article continued with the current state of lending and in particular, hard money lending that flooded the Miami market, I couldn’t help but think to myself of the implications to hard money lenders locally.

    The conversation in the article conveyed: “It’s about to blow (in Miami). It’s different now, the whole system is jammed up.”

    I met with some younger millennials last week who were refinancing. What was a typical meeting of about 30 minutes turned into an hour and a half. They asked me if I ever heard of the movie “The Big Short.”

  116. 366
    Eastsider says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 365 – The high end market in Seattle is not well too. Here is the latest closed sale in Medina. Listed almost 2 years ago on 10/6/2017 for $5m. It was sold on 9/18/2019 for $2,225,000. That is more than half off! This is basically a land sale despite the existing structure.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Medina/7319-NE-18th-St-98039/home/250337

  117. 367
    whatsmyname says:

    Hey, let’s do a thought experiment, and get a more global feel for peoples’ thinking.

    Suppose you thought you were going to come into $1million in the next couple of months. What would you plan to invest it in? Would you use leverage? If so, would you leverage high or leverage low relative to whatever is possible for the asset type you hope to pick up?

  118. 368
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 367
    I’d be highly leveraged and buy as mush as possible. I’d keep $200k in a side pot to subsidize my negative cash flow.

    I think we are getting to the end of expansion, and if someone can afford quality rentals and weather the storm of the next downturn, a lot of wealth can be generated on the next expansion.

  119. 369
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 368 – Erik, you bring up another good question: timing. Would you hold part of it in cash anticipating better prices in your asset of choice? And if so, how much would you hold for that purpose?

  120. 370

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 346
    Seattle Per Capita Income

    The ACS 1-year survey shows the per capita income for Seattle was $43,203 in 2017. Compared to the median Washington per capita income, Seattle median per capita income is $6,228 higher. As with the median household and median family income numbers above, 2018 per capita income data for Seattle will be released in September of 2019.

    https://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/washington/seattle/

    Since there are are approximately 1.2 actual workers [per capita pay folks] per household, per the following data:

    http://clerk.seattle.gov/~ordpics/115018_Doc%203%20-%20Community%20Profile%20-%20Housing%20Market%20Analysis.htm

    a good estimate on Seattle household income should skew out Bezos and Gates, or the top 1%, IOWs 1.2x43K= 51K. Period.

    You’re using cooked books avg household income fairy tales. Its avg Joe pay times number of workers per household. Its that simple, don’t try to lie about it.

  121. 371

    Good Seattle Household Income Raw Data Sources for 2019

    https://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/washington/seattle/

    http://clerk.seattle.gov/~ordpics/115018_Doc%203%20-%20Community%20Profile%20-%20Housing%20Market%20Analysis.htm

    The ghost data is number of workers per household, albeit I saw it recently in writing at 1.2 workers per household with a large percentage of singles in [single incomes] in Seattle housing….the general accumulation data URL provided above backs up that estimate, since so many of the average 2.0 folks per home in Seattle are kids, housewives, househusbands and other unemployed/retired. Also, the top 1% incomes are dinky in size, yet hugely skews averages if allowed into this as theoretically tainted Raw Data.

    My estimate of the average household income of 1st time home buyers that have an income in Seattle is:

    1.2x40K= about $48K per household, that’s a joke IMO to pay the rent around here too [welcome to the homeless camps in Seattle]….LOL

  122. 372
    David says:

    I just bought a brand waterfront new house in Brevard County, FL in the LOOW $400s from a local builder. Offer to close was literally 6 days.

    Now I am deciding whether or not to get a Landroid robomower. Temp here currently is 87 with BIGGG fluffies floating by. (and HIIIGH humidity).

    Suck it West Seattle! I’m expecting much less crime here compared to West Seattle. And certainly hope not to be subpoenaed in another murder case (which I am refusing to cooperate with until King Co abandons its Sanctuary City policies).

    I did say ‘suck’ but don’t get excited sfrz! BTW, does “sfrz” stand for San Francisco Butt Zapper?

  123. 373
    David says:

    I just bought a brand waterfront new house in Brevard County, FL in the LOOW $400s from a local builder. Offer to close was literally 6 days.

    Now I am deciding whether or not to get a Landroid robomower. Temp here currently is 87 with BIGGG fluffies floating by. (and HIIIGH humidity).

    Suck it West Seattle! I’m expecting much less crime here compared to West Seattle. And certainly hope not to be subpoenaed in another murd@r case (which I am refusing to cooperate with until King Co abandons its Sanctuary City policies).

    I did say ‘suck’ but don’t get excited sfrz! BTW, does “sfrz” stand for San Francisco Butt Zapper?

  124. 374
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 370 – The deptofnumbers.com’s $43k number is Real, i.e. inflation adjusted number..

    According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per Capita Personal Income in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA is $69,214 in 2017.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEAT653PCPI

  125. 375
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 374 – Here are census bureau numbers –

    Median household income (in 2017 dollars), Seattle – $79,565, U.S. – $57,652

    Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2017 dollars), Seattle – $51,872, U.S. – $31,177

    Note per capita income number is mean, not median.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/seattlecitywashington,US#

  126. 376
    sfrz says:

    RE: David @ 373 – You talk WAY too much about issues you shouldn’t be talking about on a public forum to be any kind of attorney. Have you been sanctioned for your professional misconduct? Probably. All your talk is just a boozy haze of have beens.

    Enjoy Florida. Cesspool of agriculture runoff, hurricanes, and swamp creatures (on two legs and four)

  127. 377
    Eastsider says:

    Seattle King County is among top 10 U.S. counties with worst home affordability according to the latest report by ATTOM Data Solutions. Annual income needed to buy, assuming a 3 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio, is $151,526. Fortunately the percentage of annualized wage needed to buy is ‘only’ 48.30%. (San Diego County tops with 110% of annual income to buy a home!)

    Top 10 U.S. Counties with Worst and Best Home Affordability
    https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/figuresfriday/top-10-u-s-counties-with-worst-and-best-home-affordability/

  128. 378
    Justme says:

    @The_Tim, seems that the KC SFH (etc) inventory count report on the front page is not getting updated again (this is after the database problem was fixed about 45 minutes ago).

    Right now stuck at “As of 09.29.2019 @ 09:00 PM”

    Additionally, there appears to be some other problems: The underlying data file does get updated, but the numbers often stay constant for multiple hours, frequently at nighttime, BUT also often during daytime. That seems not right. If I look directly at King County listings at redfin.com, new listings arrive with minute resolution and it would be too much of a coincidence if new listings and new pendings exactly cancelled out at each hour for several hours on end.

    10.01.2019 01:00 3711 4088
    10.01.2019 02:00 3714 4088
    10.01.2019 03:00 3651 4088
    10.01.2019 04:00 3651 4088
    10.01.2019 05:00 3651 4088
    10.01.2019 06:00 3651 4088
    10.01.2019 07:00 3651 4088
    10.01.2019 08:00 3651 4088 <——-hmm, still no new ones? redfin.com says new ones around 07:30
    10.01.2019 09:00 3652 4104
    10.01.2019 10:00 3656 4104 <——-2 hours with new listings equal to new pendings?
    10.01.2019 11:00 3654 4120
    10.01.2019 12:00 3660 4104
    10.01.2019 13:00 3659 4088
    10.01.2019 14:00 3654 4080 <——–at 14:03 redfin.com says 4088, with 4 new ones 3,7,8,44 min ago

    I dunno. I just can’t get things to match up most of the time. And it seems to be getting worse last 30 days or so. Maybe I’m wrong.

  129. 379
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 378
    I request Tim starts rounding inventory to the nearest 100 because we don’t need single digit precision.

  130. 380
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 369
    I don’t think the upcoming downturn will greatly affect Seattle housing prices, so I’m not that concerned. That said, I will sell some condos in 2022 as long as the market is up like I would guess it will be at that time. I’d like to have $500k in cash and my best cash flowing assets so I can buy many more houses this time in Seattle. I’d love to have $2M, but that’s not realistic for me yet.

    Then I’ll go to the house auction and see how many houses I can afford in the poor areas of Seattle. I need to own 10 houses in Seattle without a mortgage to be happy. Probably gonna need to do some flipping along the way to generate cash. I was thinking of trying to get 20 and selling 10 when the value doubles and owning 10 outright. I just need a way to get to 10 mortgage free houses in Seattle and that’s all I could come up with.

    After that I will keep going to work, but not doing anything at my job. When my boss asks me to do something, I’ll say “okay.” Then I’ll go on the web and look up Seahawks stats until I get laid off or fired. After getting canned, I’ll drive to the bar, get drunk, and take an Uber home. That’s the story I want to come to fruition. #goals

  131. 381
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 378

    There may be some short term issues getting immediate access to the inventory reports, but the longer term inventory pattern is clear— new listings are down and inventory is heading down too.

    If there is a strike, it is sellers, not buyers.

  132. 382
    Justme says:

    It’s downright disgusting to hear some of the usually unabashed bubble-mongers start talking about the “upcoming downturn”, or speculating about whether it is better to hold some cash and wait for prices to drop, and so on.

    WHAT HAPPENED?

    Don’t y’all find it disturbing how these chameleons suddenly switch colors? Just like that? It must be REALLY bad out there for the bubble-mongers trying to cover their dirty tracks and dirty deeds with a sudden new outlook.

    All the harm that is yet to come was completely unnecessary, but these greedbags do not care one bit. And now they want to benefit from the destruction they have caused. What absolute low-lives these people are.

  133. 383
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 382 – People who denied it was raining during recent dry spell are out of line to wonder if it might rain next month. In fact, they are the cause of the rain, says guy who wears raincoat and prays for rain every day.

  134. 384
    OA says:

    RE: Justme @ 382

    You’re delusional

  135. 385

    $CASH$ [Paper Money] Is Now Competing With Bank Accounts

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/maxmyinterests-new-checking-account-aims-to-get-the-highest-interest.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    This is among the Uber rich, they don’t mention real estate accumulation now.

  136. 386
    Deerhawke says:

    It seems to be a certainty on this site that we are heading into the long, long awaited recession.

    Today’s manufacturing numbers show weakness, but Boeing is hobbled by its 737 mess and GM is on strike so maybe the numbers are stronger than they seem.

    If we have the President being impeached, isn’t it certain that will trigger a recession? Normally that would be the default view. . But several analysts say that is not necessarily the case. Paul Krugman makes the opposite case.

    Impeaching Trump Is Good for the Economy
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/opinion/trump-economy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

  137. 387

    RE: softwarengineer @ 385
    Hey Tim

    Did you fix the website or change it lately at source control level?

    I was getting Error 505 block-out of my blog posts the last couple days, but perhaps ya got it fixed? Thanx Tim if it was your efforts. Have great day!

  138. 388

    RE: softwarengineer @ 387
    It may be my re-registration at Gravatar that fixed it? I noticed my picture was replaced.

  139. 389

    RE: Deerhawke @ 386
    The Other Point of View is the Stock Market is CRASHING NOW Because of the Impeachment News

    Its day to day and as meaningless an allegation as your prediction using “pollaganda” brainwashing result data of lower IQs by MSM fairy tales pretending its real?

    I’m sure an imploded stock market is just what you need to boost real estate prices….join Erik at the bar getting drunk….LOL

  140. 390

    RE: Deerhawke @ 386

    A recession favors Democrats taking over the Presidency. A strong and elevated market, aka headlines like “Trump needs the DOW to be at 30,000 to be re-elected”, favors Republicans keeping the Presidency.

    Each side will continue to work things in their favor to this end. It will continue to be a tug of war until we have a new President Elect and maybe a bit after. This is why it has a 50/50 chance to go either way. The two parties work against each other as to “the economy” as strong economy = status quo and bad economy = change needed.

    This is the Politics of The Market in the U.S. Always has been. Still think it was a coincidence that the Dow dropped to 6,000 by the time Obama was elected? Still think the cash of the housing market timed into the 8 year Presidential Election Cycle was a coincidence?

    Think again.

  141. 391

    Its Time For the September 2019 YOY Investor Raw Data Report

    Sep 0.14% (0.54%) 1.87% 1.06% 2.87%
    YTD 1.79% 8.51% 20.54% 17.57% 13.21%
    Last 12 mo 2.57% 10.32% 4.24% (3.77%) (0.94%)

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    The foreign stocks are still doing horribly YOY, but improved drastically YTD [last 9 months]….the recent Trump trade deals “closing” results are are working for the foreigners too. American stocks are on a 21% upward YTD ROCKET. The day to day data is meaningless.

    My retirement savings [its like a pension matching 401K locked box] took a small hit, but beats the Obama Long-term CDs’ 2.2% mean results from the recent past [its 2.6% NOW YOY] years. I see Trump’s giving the Social Security recipients a 2% raise for 2019, again that beats Obama’s 0% in the recent past we’ve all grown to hate [if we’re retired]….LOL…if Medicare Part B doesn’t stray far from $134-135/mo cost under Trump, it sure as Hades beats the constant monthly cost increases of Medicare with Obama vs Trump….LOL…my Blue Cross went down in 2019 too [under Trump?] and will refund an ACA check of “over-payment”[about $50-100] to me soon due to the 85% spent or refund rule….its in writing folks.

    Vote your pocket book Bubbleheads no one else will…hey Erik, which tavern are you getting drunk at? Let us know, Deerhawke and I will come to cheer ya up?…LOL

    I’m busy at home this week though, cleaning everything bright and shiny for my big home-bar party Friday with my new Milenial 26 YO friend….when she put me in her iPhone calendar for the Party at Marty’s I [need to get the bar mirror all polished and the hard wood counter sparkling for the tavern dances and disco lighting]….I’m making nachos too….time to break out of my “hermit” role too…LOL. I’ve had weekly dance lessons at Singles Resource Center in Tacoma for a decade now….time to teach the younger ones my moves….

    No need for Uber to drive us home…she lives across the street. The fun goes on and on with high rent and high real estate prices; leaving Millennial singles [men and women] with no money for social lives in Seattle. You should build a condo home bar unit Erik, it may sell well?

  142. 392
    N says:

    Buying a home in Seattle area may get thousands of dollars cheaper, after rule change by agents this week

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/rule-change-by-agents-could-trim-many-thousands-from-cost-of-buying-a-seattle-area-home/

    But the NWMLS’ push for stepped-up transparency hints that behind the scenes, brokers may be taking the implied threat of the lawsuits more seriously than they publicly admit.

  143. 393
    kenmorem says:

    By N @ 392:

    Buying a home in Seattle area may get thousands of dollars cheaper, after rule change by agents this week

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/rule-change-by-agents-could-trim-many-thousands-from-cost-of-buying-a-seattle-area-home/

    But the NWMLS’ push for stepped-up transparency hints that behind the scenes, brokers may be taking the implied threat of the lawsuits more seriously than they publicly admit.

    paging kary. kary, are you there? oh, wait, you’re in the ER? sorry. i guess the highly skilled might not be worth their pay after all…

  144. 394

    Time to Pour Yourself Another Mug of Yuban [and Erik, no fair spiking it with Black Label…LOL] and Skim the Seattle Times for Seattle Area Real Estate Price Prediction and Livability Nuggets

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019
    Illustration of Boeing whistleblower
    Boeing whistleblower says 737 MAX safety upgrades were rejected because of cost
    An engineer’s ethics complaint contends the company opted not to make safety upgrades that might have prevented two deadly crashes, because they were too expensive. The complaint raises new questions about the culture at Boeing, and whether the long-held imperative that safety must be the priority was compromised by management’s focus on schedule and cost. Read The Times Watchdog investigation. (Illustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    A Kitsap County man is accused of posing as his missing brother for at least two decades and collecting more than $400,000 in benefits. Chris Sayler once tried to explain that he and Jarvis Sayler were identical twins born years apart, according to charges. Authorities are trying to figure out what happened to Jarvis.

    Bellevue police have arrested three men and a 15-year-old boy in the deadly shooting of Josue Flores, 18, whose body was found in a park in the spring. Police used texts and social media to build their case against the suspects, who will be in court today.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo today said he was listening as President Donald Trump had his famous phone call with Ukraine’s president. Pompeo has been pushing back against what he calls Democrats’ “bullying and intimidation.” More:

    Democrats say Trump could face obstruction charges over his stonewalling and threats to unmask a whistleblower.
    A teachable moment: It’s Ukraine, not “the Ukraine,” which is offensive. Here’s why.
    While everyone talks about impeachment, what aren’t we talking about? The debate over gun control risks losing momentum, but 10 presidential candidates are at a big forum today. Check back for updates.

    The bodies of two longtime friends have been found in Lake Washington, a month after they went missing and left behind an empty boat with music blaring. An extensive, high-tech search located James Le, 30, and Vanna Nguyen, 33.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘IT JUST LETS THEM BE KIDS’
    Teacher Hannah Kinney reads at Tiny Trees Preschool
    The rainy weather might make Washington seem like a funny place for outdoor preschools, but this just became the first state to license them. At Tiny Trees Preschool in West Seattle, above, teacher Hannah Kinney has students perch on logs, hike through the woods and play in the rain. A WSU researcher is looking into the effects on kids’ brains and bodies. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Former U.S. Sen. Al Franken is supposed to talk in Seattle this week, but two Metropolitan King County Council members want Seattle Theatre Group to call off the event after a new allegation that he groped a former aide to U.S. Sen. Patty Murray. “Giving Mr. Franken his own stage sends the message that we don’t actually care,” says Joe McDermott, who joined forces with Jeanne Kohl-Welles.

    Seattle says the answer to street crime is more money. The city attorney says a lack of cash is one reason almost half of misdemeanor crimes have been going uncharged. But columnist Danny Westneat points out that the math doesn’t add up: Seattle used to handle far more cases for less money.

    Your standard driver’s license won’t get you through airport security a year from now. All travelers over age 18 will need a REAL ID-compliant form of identification. Know your options.

    A subway opera performance by a homeless woman went viral, and now it may get her off the streets of L.A. The video of the angelic performance by Emily Zamourka, who used to teach piano in Washington, is worth watching.
    Provided by Cascadia Innovation Corridor
    More than 5,800 wildfires were reported in the Cascadia region of Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in 2018. Cross-border researchers are collaborating to explore possible solutions like machine learning.
    WORTH A READ
    For the first time, Seattle would spend more than $100 million to ease homelessness under Mayor Jenny Durkan’s budget for next year. Here’s where the money would go.

    Rosenda Strong went missing a year ago today. Her family searched for 275 days before her body was found in Yakima County. Now her sister Cissy is seeking justice and telling her community that no matter the choices a person makes in life, nobody deserves what happened to Rosenda. Watch the third episode in our docuseries, Not Invisible, about the crisis of violence against Native women.

    Julie Wise started out as a temp at King County Elections almost 20 years ago, working “nearly every job” there before becoming elections director. Mark Greene, who has no experience running elections but lots of experience running for office, says it’s time for a change. The two are facing off in the Nov. 5 election.

    Lorena’s Kitchen in Georgetown has no seating, just a window. But there’s magic happening behind that window. When Lorena Ziga slides it open, you’ll find Mexican food worth standing in the rain to eat.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Are you an INTJ or an ENFP? A red-yellow or a blue-white? Personality tests are a $500 million industry. They’re gaining popularity in the workplace, where employers seek to measure “fit” and ensure success. But should they be taken seriously?
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Voters in northwest Seattle would benefit from the substantial district knowledge, fiscal expertise and demonstrated legislative skills that Jeanne Kohl-Welles offers on the Metropolitan King County Council, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. And Joe McDermott is the best choice to represent District 8, including southwest Seattle, Burien and Vashon.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Orcas Island Film Festival: How this remote spot in Puget Sound attracts such high-caliber fare
    Get ready for 2 months of book trivia, libraryoke, literary festivals and more
    Now streaming: ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home,’ ‘In the Tall Grass,’ ‘Goliath’

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Mostly cloudy. High 63. Low 49. Sunrise 7:09. Sunset 6:47.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 signs a bill creating North Cascades National Park. Debates about whether to create a park, and what its boundaries should be, raged for decades. With more than 300 glaciers, stands of old-growth forest and dozens of peaks, the swath of land from Lake Chelan to the Canadian border is protected by the new law from logging and excessive recreational activities. Over the years, the park grows. By 2011, the park complex is composed of a national park, Ross Lake National Recreation Area and Lake Chelan National Recreation Area. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s takes on Seattle Times Reporting:

    fairly good reporting Seattle Times today….I especially enjoyed your safety engineering take on Boeing MAX 8 and related “outsourced” aerospace programs…but I’d throw Boeing a bone too, its not just aerospace systems junk, it our cars too, engineered with minimal safety engineering and over priced junk:

    Asian engineered automatic transmission design that delivers no acceleration proportional to HP Raw Data compared to American designed transmissions [exclude Ford’s 6 speed FWD tranny folks, its another piece of Toyota Time Bomb Computer junk too…LOL]. IMO the Ford transmission was under-developed after Detroit [Ford too] laid off 250,000 “American” experienced and skilled technicals in 2006. Ford shot itself in the outsourced foot, just like Boeing, they even shared the same CEO that caused it too…LOL

    The H-1Bs similarly mucked up O/S S/W after they took over with slave wages [replacing our NW high school kids with diplomas] at MSFT, developing Vista and the rest of the weekly patch junk they hand us now….how long do ya wait for those poor quality weekly patches to load after a couple reboots…30 minutes? That’s when ya get your mug of spiked Yuban or join Erik at the bar…LOL

  145. 395
    Notme says:

    The same bubble-mongers
    that were preaching
    buy-and-hold
    Are now thinking
    “wish *I* had sold”

    -a bubble poem

  146. 396
    richard says:

    RE: N @ 392 – if it is going to be implemented, the impact is huge. I can’t imagine how a buyer can phycologically accept to pay his/her agent even 1% fee , not to mention 2-3% fee.(even though we know buyer pay their agent indirectly through overpaying for house). But the psychology is different, on top of the traditional 20% downplay and you have to come up with 1-3% fee. that’s horrible. Buyer agent used to say they work for “free”. Now I expect more client-agent clash during the buying process.
    My analysis on the motive of this measure is to encourage seller to list their house by reducing their fee. But RE industry need to survive this coming recession. The dynamic will be like: more listing(due to lower sell agent fee) but less buyer(upfront fee cost to buyer on top of downpayment)–> lower price maybe?

  147. 397
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 386
    New York Times, CNN, and MSNBC are all fake news pushed by the DNC these days. I’m sure you’ve read it many years when it was reliable journalism. Not the case any longer. New York Times has become a propaganda machine for the democrats.

  148. 398
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 396
    Agents do seem to get paid a lot sometimes. From a financial standpoint, it makes more sense for me to hire a rockstar agent like Ardell and pay the full commission because great agents can get you top dollar and sell more quickly.

    On the buying side, Ardell was able to get my wife to move when she was going through some post partum stuff and wouldn’t budge from our condo in a poor area of south Seattle. Now I could never get her to move back to Seattle and absolutely loves her new place. She is extremely happy with her new house we are fixing up.

    You can go ahead and enjoy your McDonald’s happy meal and discount agent. I’ll continue using rockstar agents and eating caviar.

  149. 399
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 397:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 386
    New York Times, CNN, and MSNBC are all fake news pushed by the DNC these days. I’m sure you’ve read it many years when it was reliable journalism. Not the case any longer. New York Times has become a propaganda machine for the democrats.

    and foxnews = real news
    #dumbasshit

  150. 400
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 399
    No, Fox News isn’t real either. Fox News is Republican pushed, but doesn’t contain the magnitude of lies the Democratic propaganda machines turn out. I do not watch Fox News as it’s too far right in my opinion.

    I thought we were on better terms and the you call me names. How come?

  151. 401
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 390

    Ardell I am quite aware of the literature on economic cycles and presidential elections. But it is, as you are probably aware, not absolute.

    In 2016, we were in year 7 of a strong, continuing recovery under Obama and so according to the theory, Hillary Clinton, as Obama’s successor, should have won the election. (Of course we can quibble about the fact that she did win the popular vote by over 3,000,000 votes, but lost by 78,000 votes in 3 Rust Belt states.)

    The business cycle has not been repealed so another recession is inevitable at some point. Given that fact, my feeling is that we should make a virtue of necessity.

    I am hoping for a sharp, clear recession in Q2 of next year that hits bottom in October. It will not be good for my business, but hey, whatever it takes. We need to get rid of the Orange Idiot while we still have a country to save.

  152. 402
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 401

    Deerhawke makes the call !!

    Dear potential buyers and other fence-sitters: Famed bubble-monger and bubble-cheerleader Deerhawke hopes (thinks?) that it will be a bad idea to buy a house between today (Oct 2019) and sometime after Oct 2020.

    Why did not Deerhawke see this coming and warn you earlier? Personally I saw the peak coming and warned you all that the Seattle peak would occur by Dec 2017. I was 5 months early. The peak was in May 2018. But Deerhawke is now at least 16 months late in making the call. Who should you listen too, Deerhake or Justme? You be the judge.

    Is Derhwake going to stick with the call or start again with the anytime-is-a-good-time-to-buy-and-hold feel-good propaganda? I guess we shall see.

    PS: Why Oct 2020, Deerhawke? Is that when your next Teardown Taj Mahal will be ready to sell?

  153. 403
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 401 – Below is the sobering chart of New Home Sales and Recessions from Calculated Risk. The graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. New home sales under Obama were similar to past recessions.

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Sj6qR8J9cVc/XYt0h7A_dmI/AAAAAAAAzEQ/NhmxlqXCfo8rq7cWkNRj0Y_yGnWU7-_cwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/NHSAug2019.PNG

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/new-home-sales-increased-to-713000.html

  154. 404
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 403 – Very interesting chart. It looks like new home sales are generally on a downtrend for from one to three years before the recession hits. It’s always nice to have a tell with some cushion. How long before you think we’ll have a clear downturn in new home sales?

  155. 405
    SeattleNoBubble says:

    Don’t worry about recession. if you are a home owner, no need to be panic. your house is not a bitcoin to trade. it is your castle. Make sure you have enough EM saved. You hold tight through recession, keep your job and make sure your family have a place to live. Worst case, open your basement and welcome renters. For potential buyers, same to you. Make sure you still have a job. You can move, but you have no place to hide. It will not be Seattle recession, it would be a global one.

  156. 406
    richard says:

    we are on uncharted water. simple extrapolation from past recession record may not work this time. Last October, when 10 year T yield consistently above 3% for a while, we see a big correction in stock market last till early Jan 2019. Now it seems it comes again, today DOW is down by ~500 points. Given most value are concentrated in FAANG, it seems another nose dive for these companies. Like now seemingly long faded over hyped unicorn IPOs (only BYND a winner so far), Maybe we can forget about much-hyped Amazon East side expansion story for the near future.
    It is a mixed feeling, Watching house of card slowly collapsing before your eye can be very pleasant. On the other hand, you better pray you can hang on your job in the coming years. With cash in hand, hopefully you still can buy some assets before FED flush you sweat money into inflation toilet. It will be very interesting to see what is going to happen.

  157. 407
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 402:

    Personally I saw the peak coming and warned you all that the Seattle peak would occur by Dec 2017. I was 5 months early. The peak was in May 2018. But Deerhawke is now at least 16 months late in making the call. Who should you listen too, Deerhake or Justme? You be the judge.

    Weren’t you telling us in 2015 that the market was hopelessly overvalued and due for a crash at sometime (before you settled on 12/17)? I mean months is one thing, but even now you are off by over $150,000. Do you think you’ll ever get that back?

    Besides, isn’t the recession often a good time to buy?

    I’ll go with Deerhawke, who is after all, hoping not prognosticating.

  158. 408
    Erik says:

    I request the that commenters on here quit talking about politics. For most liberals, politics is a highly emotional topic for them. Some republicans too, but to a lesser extent. I’m here to make money, not pretend one party is superior.

    Deerhawk is bringing out his emotion and getting upset over bullish!t politics. Kenmoron just attacked me because I talked about politics in relation to the economy. Please relax liberals and try to separate your emotions from reality. That would be most beneficial as I just want to learn how to stack chips and retire sooner.

  159. 409
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 402
    Deerhawk seems a lot more intelligent than you, it’s funny to see you criticizing him.

    You’ve posted a lot of low value analysis and crowned yourself king. You were wrong and you should be embarrassed.

  160. 410
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 407

    Well said. It is typical of JustHim to purposely misinterpret my comments and misrepresent his own truly lame record. Same old broken record (or for those of you too young to understand this allusion— scratched vinyl.)

    To be clear, I would be glad to get through 2020 without any recession at all.

    I would be most happy to see Trump expeditiously impeached in the House, convicted in the Senate and escorted out of the Oval Office. The main thing is to restore the dignity of the office and protect the Constitution. But Mitch McConnell and his ignorant flyover zone sheep will block any effective action. Howard Baker would not be a Republican today. So we should count on a long investigation in the House and a quick vote along party lines in the Senate.

    So again to be clear, I don’t predict a national recession in Q2 2020. I hope for one — against my own interests.

    And why should I hope for it to end in October 2020? Because there is a bit of a lag time before people recognize it is over. They would still think we are in the midst of a recession on Tuesday November 3rd when they walk into the ballot box to dump Trump, unseat half a dozen spineless Republican Senators and toss out a couple dozen Republican members of the House.

    But it is not clear this would have a large or lasting impact on real estate in Seattle. Other than the Great Recession, Seattle has had a history of weathering recessions quite well. We go in late, come out when the rest of the country does and come out much stronger.

  161. 411
    Any says:

    Washington Post calling out bubblemongers. Govt (Fannie, Freddie, FHA) is on the hook for 33% more mortgage debt than it was in 2000’s… if there is a recession where people start losing jobs, prices are going to tank, make no mistake.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/federal-government-has-dramatically-expanded-exposure-to-risky-mortgages/2019/10/02/d862ab40-ce79-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html

  162. 412
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 404 – The chart is actually much worse if you adjust for population, 1960 – 180m, 2018 – 327m. We should be building more than twice as many houses if the economy is ‘good’.

  163. 413
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 412 – I think that the national economy is not all that great. But to your point, we are adding households at a higher ratio to houses than the existing ratio, especially in cities. The result is a growing percentage are ending up in apartments, slowly skewing competitive house buyer position to ever higher income/wealth strata.

  164. 414

    RE: Erik @ 400
    Rush Limbaugh

    Now calls the FOX News Network the Never Trumper news station. News today needs to be referenced to Raw Data, a skill they don’t have the intelligence to care about.

    A independent political viewed folk is now viewed as deplorable if you don’t swallow the hogwash koolaid with glass pieces….LOL

    “Do Somethings” are viewed as evil by “Do Nothings”….LOL

    I hope Bernie’s heart is OK, in 2016 a good percentage of his dems didn’t vote, albeit a good % of them went Trump…they’ll all stay home now?

  165. 415

    Break Out the Yuban, the Laptop O/S S/W Patches are All Loaded, Time to Read:
    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, October 3, 2019
    Illlustration of a document related to 737 MAX
    Boeing persuaded FAA to relax safety rules for 737 MAX
    Back in 2014, Boeing pushed the FAA to allow an “exception” from safety standards on cockpit alerts that would warn pilots if something went wrong, documents show. Boeing argued that the requirements were impractical for the 737 MAX and would cost too much. Now two fatal crashes have highlighted the key role such alerts play. Read this Times Watchdog investigation and our story on a whistleblower who says Boeing blocked significant safety improvements to the jet. (Illustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Sammamish leaders are “heartbroken” over the deaths of two Skyline High School students who took counterfeit oxycodone tablets laced with fentanyl. As they try to track down the source, law-enforcement officials have a warning for other teens: “We’ve heard kids say they’re chasing a new high. What they’re chasing is death.”

    Police are searching for two people who reportedly stole a car with children inside and then abandoned it in North Seattle yesterday.

    Will a blast of thunderstorms and hail arrive just in time for tonight’s Seahawks game? It’s possible. Either way, you’ll want your raincoat for the next couple days. More stormy thoughts:

    When it comes to snow, Seattle needs to “be prepared for anything” this year, one meteorologist says. Transportation agencies are laying in the salt (80,000 tons) and getting ready for the worst case. The rest of us should prepare too, they say.
    Seattle has some wacky urban legends when it comes to weather. As we demystify them, what questions do you have?

    Tonight’s game could throw the budding rivalry between the Seahawks and Rams into high gear. Here are the key factors to watch. While we wait for kickoff, see if you agree with our sportswriters’ predictions. And ponder this: Thursday night games have brought forth some choice words from the players, but maybe they’re not so atrocious, columnist Matt Calkins writes.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    A street in long-ago Seattle
    The photo surfaced from the depths of history with no caption, but detectives quickly figured out where it had been taken: a part of Seattle that’s since undergone great changes in height and grade. One of their clues: a sign in the upper-left window reading “Mabel Canney, Piano.” Searches of city directories revealed when Mabel and presumably her piano were here. Can you guess when and where this was taken? Check your answer and see how this site looks now. (Photo courtesy of Paul Dorpat)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    UW Medicine is celebrating a big gift: a $50 million donation from a Bellevue couple to start a brain institute that will study addiction, Alzheimer’s and other disorders.

    Ex-Seahawk Percy Harvin says he punched Golden Tate before the Super Bowl and was high for every NFL game he played. Harvin, who describes his Seahawks stint as “probably the worst years of my life,” is telling the story of his struggles with social anxiety to ease the stigma around it.

    The first Expedia workers will enter their new Seattle campus on Monday, and they might never want to leave. Take a look inside the building, which is designed to feel like a posh hotel. The campus has tech-friendly touches like WiFi-enabled rocks — and then there’s the highly controversial parking garage.

    “Can I give her a hug?” Amber Guyger, a white Dallas police officer, was sentenced yesterday to a decade in prison for killing a black man whose apartment she mistook for her own. As she sobbed in court, the victim’s brother stunned onlookers with his request. Then came another unlikely embrace. Where some see “an amazing act of healing,” others see an outrage.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders is tweeting from his hospital bed about Medicare for All, but he won’t be appearing at campaign events “until further notice.” The 78-year-old presidential candidate is recovering after a heart procedure for a blocked artery, again raising a question among Democrats: How old is too old to run for president?
    Provided by Northpoint Recovery
    Detox is just the beginning of the path to recovery. Find an addiction recovery center that provides immediate help and a strong foundation for long-term sobriety for you or a loved one. Here are four things to look for.
    WORTH A READ
    A Kent teen has pleaded guilty to murder in the death of a police officer during a high-speed chase. Officer Diego Moreno, remembered by police as “the best of us,” was struck and killed by a fellow officer while laying out spike strips to stop the car driven by Emiliano Garcia, who was then 16.

    A Metro Transit worker whose video got King County deputies fired in 2015 is alleging he was roughed up and handcuffed in retaliation in April. His lawsuit is the third federal civil-rights case filed against the King County Sheriff’s Office in the past month; all were filed by African Americans.

    “You’re not going to destroy me.” Joe Biden last night delivered his most forceful response yet to President Donald Trump’s attacks, at a potential tipping point in the Democratic presidential race. More:

    Trump repeatedly involved Vice President Mike Pence in efforts to pressure Ukraine at a time when the president was soliciting information that he hoped would damage Biden, U.S. officials said as Democrats prepared a broad new subpoena.
    Trump’s anger erupted publicly while a bewildered Finnish president watched yesterday.

    Spooky reads are flying off local bookstore shelves like a witch on a broomstick. Here are the ones that are giving goosebumps to Pacific Northwest readers. And October and November are booked up with fun literary adventures in the Seattle area — like “Ales from the Crypt,” scary tales read aloud to a beer-drinking audience.

    The Northwest can be a hard place to dine if you grew up in an Arab household, as reporter Dahlia Bazzaz did. But a friend introduced her to Garlic Crush, and she found hope amid the hummus and crispy shawarma. The casual Lebanese joint has locations on the Eastside and Capitol Hill.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Shop Everlane in person and skip the shipping. A Pop-In shop is coming to Nordstrom, bringing the chance to feel the ethically made basics, try them on and take them home right away. It opens this week for a limited time only.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Renton is growing fast and deserves a mayor with a strong administrative track record who will place the city’s needs first. The best choice in November’s election is City Councilmember and restaurant owner Armondo Pavone, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    5 new Northwest albums we can’t put down
    ‘Joker’ review: There’s nothing funny about this very dark origin story starring Joaquin Phoenix
    What the Pacific Northwest is reading: Spooky season is upon us, and we’re choosing our books accordingly

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 61. Low 49. Sunrise 7:10. Sunset 6:45.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1918, the Spanish Influenza pandemic arrives in Seattle, with 700 cases and one death reported at the University of Washington Naval Training Station. During the next six months, about 1,600 people die of the disease in Seattle; worldwide, at least 21 million die. Seattle authorities ban dances, enforce an anti-spitting ordinance and close theaters and schools. Gauze masks become mandatory in Seattle, and soon are required throughout the state. Schools reopen in January 1919, and in March 1919 no deaths from influenza are reported. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s take:

    Hey, where’s the headline this morning on Seattle Real Estate market sizzling now? Perhaps charcoal burnt to crisp is a better description…LOL…time to dig deeper for MUCH bigger utility bills, my days of $50/mo PSE summer bills are over now [already 37 degree morning frost on car windows]…my property taxes are due by Halloween, its $210/mo Bubbleheads, cheap…LOL…then its Christmas and Thanksgiving bills. Not to worry, that 0-3% chump change [about $20 bi-weekly] “wage increase” to our net pay should net an extra case for “cheap” canned beer, turn on the Seahawks and become a screaming/drunk Seattle Hermit watching it rain outside…LOL

    Have Doordash deliver the $45 [with taxes, tips and deliver fees tagged on] pizza flavored crust with a table spoon of cheese/meat and sauce they add lightly with a brush…gobble it all down between swigs of rotgut while watching the game…the Seattle social live is great, we’ll play “Destroy the World With Guns” on our new Pay Stations systems…are you happy yet?

  166. 416
    N says:

    By Deerhawke @ 410:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 407

    But it is not clear this would have a large or lasting impact on real estate in Seattle. Other than the Great Recession, Seattle has had a history of weathering recessions quite well. We go in late, come out when the rest of the country does and come out much stronger.

    This is very true but to play devils advocate, the job mix in Seattle was a bit different in 2008 than it is today. Amazon had what, maybe 4,000 jobs. All boils down to whether the tech industry would tighten the belt and look to reduce the middle of the P&L.

  167. 417
  168. 418
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 416

    The whole economy of the Puget Sound area was different in 2008 from now. But if you look back through time, you can see one constant and that is rapid diversification of the technology/employment base.

    When I got here in 1990, Boeing was the big dog. Microsoft had been a public company for 4 years and was growing fast, but a lot of people doubted it was a long term thing. Amazon was not even on the drawing board.

    But even then, you saw people leaving MS and the UW and doing cool tech and near-tech startups. Software, medical, aviation, agriculture, web-based businesses, you name it. It all looks small scale and quaint in retrospect.

    Or from another perspective, it was just setting the foundation for the growth we saw after the recession.

    Look at what the area is now and imagine that what we currently see is the foundation for equally rapid growth in the next decade.

    Amazon is still growing in Seattle, but is making Bellevue a default HQ2 after plans for Long Island City blew up. We now have Apple, Google and Facebook building out campuses on both sides of Lake Washington. Tableau is now part of Salesforce which has aggressive plans for growth in the area (even using the term “HQ2”). Microsoft looked for a while like it was heading toward senescence, but under Nadella is back in a really big way, especially with Azure. The UW just recently got the go-ahead to build out 6 million square feet in medical research facilities and office space for its innovation zone. And the area now has the financing and infrastructure to act as a full-fledged incubator for startups and rapidly growing companies. I think the Puget Sound area is going to be the center of the next big technology wave using cloud services, AI. and 5G.

    If we have a recession, no question every company is going to be looking hard at ways to tighten the belt. It is part of the cycle of creative destruction, just as forests must have the occasional fire to clear out the undergrowth. But longer term, if you have real estate in Seattle, you are invested in a place with a future.

  169. 419
    Lulu says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 418
    Agree. Real estate is not a bitcoin to trade. It is a place to live. It is very correlated with local economy. If you believe Seattle economy will perform better than national average, and you skills could find you a job here, then you should stick with it. I want to add more comment to Deerhawke, Seattle has the most diversified economy: Aerospace manufacturing (Boeing), information tech (MSFT, Amzn, Facebook, etc), consumer (Costco, Starbucks), Biomedical resrarch (UW, Seattle Geno), and Port (most trans-Pacific trade through LA , Seatacoma). And mostly, we have limited land to house the inflow population. The infrastructure expansion (hwy, light rail) all demand land. People are moving further north or south to find affordable housing but find out it takes 2 hr per day to commute. They have to find housing with 1/2 hr to their jobs. And mostly, the mortgage is so low at 3.5% and could go even lower. Europe already has the zero interest. Danmark offers negative mortgage. Anyone still remember the 7 or 8% mortgage in 90s? If you can’t afford a house here, I am sorry you are not making enough. You need to find 2nd job

  170. 420
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 414
    I voted Bernie last time. This time I’ll likely go trump because I think he is doing a great job for Americans and that’s what it’s really all about. Trump just doesn’t hate our corrupt food makers like I do and Bernie appears to get it. Democrats totally should have backed Bernie and maybe they would have won in 2016.

  171. 421
    Any says:

    Yes housing here will appreciate in the long term, and yes the economy here is pretty well diversified with good growth prospects. However, nothing is immune to a recession. The question is still the same as always, is it a better time to buy now than it’d be in 1-2 years? Most information on the economy is pointing to a recession starting anytime; its pretty much starting in Europe right now. There are a lot of people who bought early last year that have seen the purchases lose value already. Somebody buying today could easily see even bigger declines a year from now. You gotta weigh the risk. Right now there is undoubtedly more risk in buying than their is in waiting.

    Bubblemongers keep trying to inflate.

  172. 422
    JWoods says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 386
    Paul Krugman is letting his political bias getting into the way of judgement.

    Market shrugged off impeachment news, perhaps that’s because market doesn’t see the high likelihood of Trump getting impeached with the current evidence.

    Denying tax cut and de-regulation stimulus effecting on economy is just bizarre, many CEOs of corp America have publicly stated their positive effect on economy.

  173. 423
    a-lurker says:

    I thought you guys weren’t going to talk politics in this forum? Would it be possible to keep the discussion about actual real estate trends and not politics or conspiracy theories or whining about how Seattle is dying or the homeless etc etc?

  174. 424
    BacktoBasics says:

    Seattle medium family income is $93000, medium house price is $714,000. SF medium income is $105,000. medium house price is $1,299,000. Seattle has zero state tax. So after tax income Seattle is same as SF. Both cities are on west coast. So either SF house price has to drop or Seattle housing price will catch up. I check Vancouver data: the median total income of households in Vancouver is $72,662, the benchmark home price is $1,360,000 USD. According to these data, do you still believe Seattle is over priced?

  175. 425
    biliruben says:

    Seattle is becoming an international city. In 1995 when I moved here, it was city that felt like a small town. No longer.

    Domestic migration is negative. The only thing keeping Seattle population from shrinking is folks coming from overseas.

    I’m not an international guy. I’m moving to Tacoma. Or Gig Harbor. Or Vashon. I can afford Seattle, I just don’t see the point in competing with Chinese money. Indian money. Big-brained international money. The best things about Seattle are outside Seattle anyway.

  176. 426
    N says:

    BacktoBasics – That is an appealing case, until you continue the comparison to other cities across the country. It would lead you to the opposite conclusion. Take one, Minneapolis medium income of $75k and medium home price of $265k. How special is Seattle?

  177. 427
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: N @ 425
    I am talking about west coast town:LA, SF SD, SEA, Vancouver. Not Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis.

  178. 428

    RE: a-lurker @ 422
    Homelessness is a Seattle Real Estate Issue

    Its called Seattle livability. Its nonpartisan whether ya want to ship them all out of the State in buses like the Dems suggested, and our school property taxes for real estate are directly related to schooling more kids than we have budget for…perhaps ya need to read the Bubble and learn, instead of fighting the ethic causes, because it upsets your perfect world.

  179. 429

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 423
    You Never Give Up Do You

    How can avg Joe income be $20/hr [about $40K/yr] and there are 1.2 workers per household approximately. You do the math, you passed arithmetic in a public school I assume.

  180. 430

    RE: N @ 425 – NYC, Kansas City, Seattle all have a $20/hr avg pay Now

    Move to Kansas City the rent is $600/mo…Kansas has better schools too.

    I hate high rent in Seattle, so does my 26 YO friend who works seven days a week at COSTCO [$14/hr] and still lives at home with mom and dad….her social life is nada and I’m done being a Seattle hermit too [as an Uber Rich hoarding all its money, Scrooge is what I’m becoming]….its time to get out of debt and live a real social life in my book. There’s more to life than a roof, a social life allows you to avoid depression too, all humans need it. Go Seahawks!!!

    My boat came in and believe me, I’m saving almost all of it now too and living large too. Erik likes this plan too. I’m still a Scrooge counting the coins and even my sister called me that, but she’s retired living large too with a retired Lt Colonel….LOL….so understands me totally. If this doesn’t relate to real estate, I’ll become an ostridge and stick its head in the sand.

  181. 431
    S-Crow says:

    From the escrow trenches:

    Some municipalities are not screwing around with flippers evidently. Am clearing a $20K judgment against a subject property for code violations. That is quite the boo boo tax. And that’s before the Alligator financing (hard money) and other closing costs.

    The good news: Seattle is immune. Please call New York City to ask how it’s going, then Miami and while on the subject, go ahead and get the skinny from Orange County and San Francisco/Silicon Valley.

    If you are a buyer on the sidelines you are in a superb position to be ready to deploy your cash: particularly if you are debt free or have very low debt loads.

    I’ve been sounding the alarm for quite some time: Federal Gov’t has dramatically higher exposure to risky loans.

    This $$it show from We Work reminds me of the go-go days. Imandi, InfoSpace, WebVan, GeoCities, etc. Come on you tech vets….give us some more names. Valued at Billions but has no revenue and loses copious amounts of money.

  182. 432
    Deerhawke says:

    Interesting piece in the Seattle Times this am. Here is the headline and lede. You can get the rest online.

    Google’s foray into South Lake Union
    Tech giant unveils first of its five planned buildings, expanding Seattle-area footprint

    Another day, another Seattle tech campus opening. Last week, Facebook inaugurated a 600-person building. Expedia’s new Interbay campus opens its doors to the first of 4,500 employees next Monday. And Thursday, Google unveiled the first of its five planned buildings in South Lake Union, an expansion that ups by half the tech company’s Seattle-area footprint.

  183. 433
    Marc says:

    Here’s an interesting article that portends of doom to come in a way I haven’t heard before. The author appears to be a perma-bear deluxe and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a considerable assortment of tin foil hats BUT if his underlying premise is true, modified mortgages from the GFC are likely to re-default in large numbers when the next recession hits, that could be something that significantly impacts house prices even in high and mighty, this-time-is-different-Seattle. I don’t care enough to verify his claims but maybe one of our resident bears will look into it.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-widening-crack-in-the-mortgage-market-could-sink-us-home-prices-2019-10-03?mod=MW_home_top_stories

  184. 434
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 410

    Rooting for a recession??? Deerhawke hopes that people will lose their jobs and homes so his favorite politicians will win. That’s really sweet.

  185. 435

    Seattle Times Now Pay Per View By URL

    Here’s the EMail Brief Today, I’m on My Second Yuban Mug:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 4, 2019

    NEED TO KNOW
    Traffic alert: The southbound I-5 express lanes are closed through this morning’s commute after a semi truck crashed and caught fire. Check traffic here and expect long delays as vehicles are diverted to Mercer Street.

    A detective scooped up two cigarette butts and a napkin from the ground last weekend, and the trash led to an arrest in the long-ago slaying of a Federal Way teen. A 55-year-old Covington man was charged yesterday with murdering Sarah Yarborough, 16, whose body was found at Federal Way High School in 1991. The cold case heated up recently when a genealogist got involved.

    A congressional panel wants to interview the Boeing whistleblower who says his company blocked key safety upgrades to the 737 MAX due to cost concerns. The chairman of the House panel that’s been investigating Boeing says members weren’t aware of the engineer’s complaint until it was detailed in The Seattle Times this week.

    Less than 10% of Sound Transit’s light-rail and commuter train passengers are black or African American — but 22% of riders caught up in the fare enforcement system over the last four years were black. And the disparities worsen when you look at penalties. As Sound Transit wrestles with making changes to fare enforcement, we’d like to hear your experience with it.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    NOT YOUR USUAL OFFICE BUILDING
    Inside new Google building
    It’s time for the latest installment of Cool Places Tech Companies Are Building. Google has unveiled the first of five planned buildings in South Lake Union, close enough to the Amazon campus that workers are communicating with each other via sticky notes on windows. Before long, the neighborhood will be seeing Googlers by the thousands. Peek inside their unconventional world. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Seattle’s Intiman Theatre will stay open. After the theater came dangerously close to shutting its doors, the board and staff united behind a plan to raise enough money to stay afloat. Checks have started pouring in.

    Seattleites new and old can’t stop talking about the Seattle Freeze, and there’s a common refrain: If you think we’re chilly, the problem is you. Do the complainers deserve this? Hundreds of comments flooded in after Phyllis Coletta wrote two Seattle Times opinion pieces (“The ‘Seattle Freeze’ has me plotting my escape” and “Thanks for breaking the ice, now let’s thaw the whole village”).

    Americans’ grocery bills are likely to rise under Trump’s latest round of tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how the fight with Europe will affect everything from wine and cheese to airplanes and axes.

    Looking for some weekend fun? We’ve pulled together the best new movies, fall family events and lots of restaurants to try.
    Provided by South West Plumbing
    Investing in a tankless water heater for energy efficiency: Is it worth it? It lasts twice as long as a traditional cylindrical storage tank and lowers energy bills, but the upfront cost is substantial. An expert explains the pros and cons.

    Some good news, because goodness knows we need it: School supplies have been pouring in for grateful Washington teachers, thanks to a trend that involves Amazon wish lists and a generous public.

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Looking polished in Seattle’s moody fall weather isn’t easy. Fashion designer Adam Lippes, visiting Nordstrom last week, offers these tips for looking stylish in the rainy season and why a cashmere coat is a good investment.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Voters should give Seattle School Board President Leslie Harris another term as District 6 director, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What’s there to do in the Seattle area this weekend? New movies, fall family events and lots of new restaurants to try
    6 movies open Oct. 4 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    Seattle’s Intiman Theatre to stay open, after coming dangerously close to closing

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Cloudy. High 60. Low 50. Sunrise 7:12. Sunset 6:43.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Alderwood Mall opens in 1979, with only about 70 of the planned 136 stores operating because of rapid construction. Between 2002 and 2004 the Lynnwood mall undergoes a major renovation and expansion. In 2008, the nearly 1.4-million-square-foot mall is one of the largest in Washington, and the second-largest employer in Snohomish County, with 4,000 workers in 175 stores. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    Seattle Weekend Entertainment: Crummy Fall Movies for $20 ea with popcorn….restaurants with no wait lines and plenty of open seats anyway…they’re all home eating pizza flavored crust and playing “Kill Them All With Guns”, the new Xbox favorite. Grocery Bills going up with Trump’s tariffs? I see Safeway has 2 lbs of cheddar cheese on sale for $3.99, candy is $1.99 for the Mars Snack Size at Fred Meyers, vine tomatoes still $1.28/lb at WinCos…I jut went shopping yesterday, prices are flat and unchanged in general.

  186. 436
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 430

    >> The good news: Seattle is immune. Please call New York City to ask how it’s going,

    Indeed, some sarcasm was needed here. New York prices are dropping very significantly, especially at the mid-high and high end.

    QUOTE: ” The median sale price of a Manhattan home dipped below $1 million during the past three months, according to a market analysis. Appraiser Jonathan Miller, who prepared a quarterly market analysis for Douglas Elliman Real Estate, said his data showed the median sales price for a Manhattan townhouse fell a staggering 45.8%, to $3.5 million.”

    http://nypost.com/2019/10/02/manhattan-home-prices-in-near-free-fall-as-median-dips-below-1m/

    Jesus Johansson. A 45.8% median price drop in Manhattan? How long can Seattle stay special and be immune to reality? Well, at least in the comment section of Seattlebubble.com there will be an endless stream of housing inflation happy-talk, courtesy of the large resident population of bubble-mongers that are trying to bury the truth with their noise.

    I think they hope that YOU, potential buyer, failed to notice the reality.

  187. 437
  188. 438
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 435 – I think it’s great that the $7mm NY townhouse you’ve been eyeing is on sale for half. But consider the poor 1st time Seattle buyer who possibly, unrealistically thought he should buy a median house in 2015, but thought the $500k price ready for a huge tumble. He outsmarted himself good, and now blames everyone else. Should he be encouraged to play that game again?

  189. 439
    a-lurker says:

    Google having a campus in SLU has been known for a while (obviously since they’ve been constructing it). Apple is also planning on opening up an office around there, I believe.

  190. 440
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 436 – Seattle median home price is $713k* compared to Austin’s $372k*. Seattle ranks among the worst based on affordability. And of course, we are still ‘cheap’ compared to Vancouver BC.

    ROFL

    Source – Zillow

  191. 441

    RE: Justme @ 435

    Jonathan is a friend of mine and gave me a heads up while he was running his numbers before finishing his charts and article. I tried to post it here but SB server was down at the time, a few days ago.

    Speaking of “bury the truth with noise”, when Jonathan first told me he noted that the decline in median was a direct impact of the July 1 enacted “Mansion Tax”. Not sure if that was newly enacted at that time or just increased considerably. Funny you don’t mention the Mansion Tax being the impetus for the 3rd Quarter decline, burying the truth as it were, since Jonathan is very clear about the cause.

    “In the following chart, the sales above $2 million fell the most in Q3 as the Mansion Tax poached sales into the Q2 (before the July 1 commencement of the tax) to save a few percent on a substantial purchase price.” Jonathan Miller

    The drop not only being from the Mansion Tax but also a boost in the previous Quarter due to people anticipating the Mansion Tax.

    This tax added to the already high RE Taxes and Transfer Taxes adds 1% more to sales of $1M and has a graduated increase up to 3.9% more than the existing taxes on sales of $25,000,000 or more.

    You yourself have more bias than those you accuse to have bias, and you hide from any details that don’t support your mission. As “they” say, the accuser is often the guilty one.

  192. 442
    BacktoBasics says:

    By Eastsider @ 438:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 436 – Seattle median home price is $713k* compared to Austin’s $372k*. Seattle ranks among the worst based on affordability. And of course, we are still ‘cheap’ compared to Vancouver BC.

    ROFL

    Source – Zillow

    Drive around Austin or any Texas city and you see plenty of flat land. with no basement to dig in. A 1/4 acre land cost you 100K. In Seattle, you can’t find a single flat land. A 1/8 of acre will cost you 1/4 million. Flat that lot and dig in crawl space will cost you another 100k. So $350K for a lot alone. Plus, high labor cost in Seattle will cost 30-50% more than Texas.

  193. 443
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 430
    Are you saying that you think this next recession will be a deleveraging? That would be insane if we had back the back deleveraging. That would be extremely unlikely.

    My guess is that whatever is coming is a plane vanilla recession.

  194. 444
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 439

    I’ll keep this short and simple: The transfer tax on NYC residential property costing 1M increased from 0.4% (NY State transfer tax) to 1.4% (the 1% addon is the new NYC-only transfer tax). For higher price property there is a progressive increase in rates, details at https://www.tax.ny.gov/bus/transfer/rptidx.htm

    Now, here is the quote from the nypost article:

    >>The $999,950 median price represented a 17% decline compared to the same period last year, CORE Real Estate said.

    It does not seem to me that a 1% tax increase would explain a 17% decline in median price, would it? So who is being sloppy (and biased) here? Not me. You shot from the hip, Ardell, and you missed this time.

  195. 445
    S-Crow says:

    Closed a 30 yr fixed purchase at 3.375%. Unbelievable.

  196. 446
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 443
    You over paid for the mortgage. It can go even lower. Danmark is offering -0.05% 10 year mortgage now. No kidding.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/danish-bank-is-offering-10-year-mortgages-with-negative-interest-rates.html

  197. 447
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 442

    Incorrect. Google Mansion Tax and also Jonathan, who YOU used as your source, is who I quoted as to the cause and effect.

    If you aren’t going to believe him, don’t use him as your source

  198. 448
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 445

    The reader may note that Ardell has just declared me to be “incorrect”. But she could not even verbalize what it was that I am incorrect about.

  199. 449
    S-Crow says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 444 – to clarify: this is a transaction our escrow office closed. It’s not mine personally.

  200. 450
    ronp says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 430 – Remember when Kozmo.com would deliver a DVD and a pint of ben and jerry’s to your door? They were ahead of their time.

    I think the WeWork IPO process actually worked correctly. The S-1 filing laid it all out before even more bad things would have happened. Still bad though. https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo

  201. 451
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Erik @ 441 – I hope we have a plain vanilla recession and get it the hell over with. However, I think due to the world wide financial dysfunction it will be a different flavor.

  202. 452
    BacktoBasics says:

    By ronp @ 448:

    RE: S-Crow @ 430 – Remember when Kozmo.com would deliver a DVD and a pint of ben and jerry’s to your door? They were ahead of their time.

    I think the WeWork IPO process actually worked correctly. The S-1 filing laid it all out before even more bad things would have happened. Still bad though. https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo

    I can offer my basement for MyWork working space IPO. How much should I ask?

  203. 453
    S-Crow says:

    RE: ronp @ 448 – hah! lol. That was a crazy period and time frame between the dot. com crash, 9-11 attack and subsequent market drops.

    From peak to trough in October 2004 the NASDAQ 100 lost 78%.

  204. 454

    RE: Justme @ 446

    Perhaps you need a different source. I used yours because he happened to be a friend of mine. But here’s Forbes: “The dip is likely a result of the recently increased mansion tax, which charges a 1% to 4.15% sliding-scale tax on homes priced over $1 million. July also saw an additional real estate transfer fee levied on homes sold at $3 million or higher. The new taxes caused a flurry of sales toward the end of Q2, followed by a steep drop in Q3. ”

    Maybe they are also quoting Jonathan, but it does not appear so.

    No one but you has reported the drop…without also noting the increased Mansion Tax of 1% to 4.15%. Add the Mansion Tax to the taxes you posted.

    Even if you only read the headlines, you really couldn’t miss that.

    “The Results Are In: The Mansion Tax Has New York City Real Estate Sales Plummeting”

  205. 455
    kenmorem says:

    By S-Crow @ 443:

    Closed a 30 yr fixed purchase at 3.375%. Unbelievable.

    i locked in a 3.375 30 yr in january 2015. i’ve seen them that low during the interim a few times.

  206. 456
    Mikal says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 440:

    By Eastsider @ 438:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 436 – Seattle median home price is $713k* compared to Austin’s $372k*. Seattle ranks among the worst based on affordability. And of course, we are still ‘cheap’ compared to Vancouver BC.

    ROFL

    Source – Zillow

    Drive around Austin or any Texas city and you see plenty of flat land. with no basement to dig in. A 1/4 acre land cost you 100K. In Seattle, you can’t find a single flat land. A 1/8 of acre will cost you 1/4 million. Flat that lot and dig in crawl space will cost you another 100k. So $350K for a lot alone. Plus, high labor cost in Seattle will cost 30-50% more than Texas.

    Why? Could it be the market? Texas is a dump. There are REALLY well paying jobs here. And no empty lots. Do the math genius.

  207. 457
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 438

    Affordability is a question of perspective. Filet mignon is less affordable than hamburger which is in turn less affordable than tripe. So tripe tops the affordability list!

    Remember that at the far end of the Most Affordable Cities List are Detroit, Youngstown, Flint, Cleveland, Akron, Birmingham, Memphis. etc. Kind of a dubious distinction, don’t you think?. What city really wants to be on that list?

  208. 458
    Deerhawke says:

    By Justme @ 446:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 445

    The reader may note that Ardell has just declared me to be “incorrect”. But she could not even verbalize what it was that I am incorrect about.

    I can. Everything.

  209. 459
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 446
    You are incorrect about predicting where the housing market was going. You ,Sfrz, and Joe kept talking with certainty. It was like a big gang of fools all feeding off one another. Joe went to open houses in Woodinville to determine the market was going down. He saw not many people went to the open house, therefore he confirmed the Seattle housing market was tanking. You just kept posting bad analysis and cheering on the other fools.

  210. 460
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 455

    No, affordability is not a question of perspective. In San Diego County, you need 110% of annual income to buy a home. In Vancouver, the average price of a house is four times higher than what prospective buyers could safely afford to pay.

    Now explain your ‘perspective’ to your millennial children.

    Home prices in Vancouver are quadruple what average millennial can afford: report
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-prices-vancouver-twice-what-millennials-can-afford-1.5172388
    Gabriel Del Cid Castro, 29, and his wife bought a house in Surrey a couple years ago.
    They both now work three jobs each to make ends meet.
    “We both work for municipal and provincial governments but the price influx we have in the province is astronomical,” Castro said.
    “It’s a crisis and I don’t see a proper way how to resolve it.”

    “I don’t want to sound pathetic or anything but [I feel] a little bit helpless — there is nothing that I can do,” said Jeremy Hildred, 27.
    He lives in Kelowna, where he was born and raised and rents a basement suite with his wife from a family member.
    The couple has a combined income close to $150,000, Hildred said, but home ownership seems out of the question.
    “It just doesn’t look possible for us,” he said.
    The report said millennials in Vancouver would need to save for 29 years — around the amount of time they’ve been alive — to build up a 20 per cent down payment in the current market.

  211. 461
    Justme says:

    “If you aren’t going to believe him, don’t use him as your source”

    Ardell’s rule of logic and debate: If you quote a reference, you must agree with everything in the reference. Or else Ardell will call you “incorrect”.

    LOL

  212. 462

    Reshuffling the Expedia Bellevue Job Chairs on the Titanic From Bellevue?

    To Seattle Squeeze traffic with no parking?

    Don’t drop your Yuban Mug, Its Time for:

    “…The Seattle Times
    TOP OF THE TIMES
    Saturday, October 5, 2019
    Illustration of a man holding 737 MAX information
    Boeing’s decisions on 737 MAX safety put company’s culture in spotlight
    A Boeing engineer’s ethics complaint says the company rejected 737 MAX safety upgrades that might have prevented two deadly crashes, in part because they were too expensive. And documents show that back in 2014, Boeing persuaded the FAA to relax safety standards on the jet’s cockpit alerts, which later played a key role in two deadly crashes. Read the Times Watchdog investigations.

    Expedia campus opens next week to first employees — the Wi-Fi rocks await

    Four years after Expedia announced it would move its headquarters from Bellevue to the former Amgen campus in Seattle, the first of the company’s 4,500 employees will enter the new space Monday. Read more.

    15 new restaurant openings in Seattle — including a burger many declare is the best in the city

    Is this the best burger in Seattle? Many seem to think so, and now you can get it at the new restaurant in Upper Queen Anne. Read more.

    HEADLINES FROM THIS WEEK
    Buying a home may have just gotten thousands of dollars cheaper. That’s because of rule changes involving how real-estate agents get paid, amid two ongoing lawsuits that have been called a “nuclear bomb on the industry.” Here’s what changed in Washington state. Read more.

    Drivers of hybrid and electric cars, get ready for sticker shock. Your car-tab bill includes a new, annual $75 charge to pay for charging stations that the hybrid drivers will never use. Here’s what’s behind the little-known increase. Read more.

    Sammamish leaders are “heartbroken” over the deaths of two Skyline High School students who took counterfeit oxycodone tablets laced with fentanyl. As they try to track down the source, law-enforcement officials have a warning for other teens: “We’ve heard kids say they’re chasing a new high. What they’re chasing is death.” Read more.

    Your standard driver’s license won’t get you through airport security a year from now. All travelers over age 18 will need a REAL ID-compliant form of identification. Know your options. Read more.
    Bringing you the news you care about. That’s our specialty. Supporting the local free press? Maybe that’s your specialty.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    A Kitsap County man is accused of posing as his missing brother for at least two decades and collecting more than $400,000 in benefits. Chris Sayler once tried to explain that he and Jarvis Sayler were identical twins born years apart, according to charges. Authorities are trying to figure out what happened to Jarvis. Read more.

    There’s so much fun to be had in the Seattle area this weekend. The perfect pumpkin is waiting to be picked at your local patch, some tantalizing restaurants have opened, and new music and movies beckon. We’ve pulled together the best bets around our region. Read more.

    Seattle’s Intiman Theatre will stay open. After the theater came dangerously close to shutting its doors, the board and staff united behind a plan to raise enough money to stay afloat. Checks have started pouring in. Read more.

    Provided by Cascadia Innovation Corridor
    More than 5,800 wildfires were reported here in the Cascadia region of Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in 2018. Cross-border academic researchers are collaborating to explore possible solutions like machine learning. Read more.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Plastic, metal or glass: The best material for a reusable water bottle is … complicated. All are good and carry minimal risk (except BPA). Here are the pros and cons of each material when it comes to safety and sustainability. Read more.

    There’s no food without plastic, its basically what you pay for at the grocery store, containers, mostly plastic. Hybrids use those toxic Chinese batteries, they should pay an environmental tax, along with electric car owners. BTW, the canned food has plastic liners putting BPA into your body far worse than plastic pollution. Ban canned goods? LOL

    The Fall movies suck, all of ’em cheap international Hollywood now, no experienced actors…how many “new” restaurants are failed ones under new management?, I see those all over the place and the new management ones don’t last long in Seattle too. Any good concerts in town, nope just unknown bands with high ticket prices. Pass me the game controller stick, a slice of pizza flavored crust and a can of rotgut. Did you know the Corolla beer is rutgut in Mexico, they call it their cheap swill…LOL…they like XXX though.

  213. 463
    Joe says:

    RE: Erik @ 457

    Erik, wake up. The RE market and economy are beginning to fall. Next year looks to be a big downer.

  214. 464

    RE: Justme @ 459

    You are being purposefully obtuse. Your tax numbers are incorrect and your reporting of the drop and excluding the relevant facts was purposeful.

    The 2nd source I gave you, after first using your own source, was Forbes.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/2019/10/02/the-results-are-in-the-mansion-tax-has-nyc-real-estate-sales-plummeting/#28c965de343c

    I don’t like to put links because they sometimes throw the comments into moderation and out of sync. That’s why I asked that you google “Mansion Tax”. But there isn’t a reporting anywhere of the info you posted…that does not credit the Mansion Tax as the cause. You are purposefully eliminating that information to suggest it is a national trend to that degree.

  215. 465
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 461
    Show me how you determined that next year is gonna be worse than this year for Seattle housing prices. More specifically, what are the indicators you are looking at?

    In Seattle, I see historically low inventory and lots of software companies planning more and more development in Seattle and the east side. Globally, America is kicking butt. USA is taking in so much money from tariffs, we can pay or debts and inflation goes low. Low inflation means we can lower mortgage rates. Lowering mortgage rates will likely increase real estate prices and we’ll be on another tear. Then right around election time, USA will strike a deal with China and everything will boom. That brings us to 2024, my original guess of when real estate prices will fall hard.

  216. 466

    Homelessness Spreads Disease and Filth, So Do Republic Garbage Strikes On the East Coast

    My Republic Pickup Has Been Cancelled Three Days Now in Kent, back on next week???

    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/republic-services-cancels-trash-pickup-medina-sammamish/281-8acfe3ee-17c4-438b-ac7d-5e2b6ecdc640

    My HOA mail kiosk was smashed by a car and destroyed….its been two months of no mail service at home too [each “daily” pickup at Post Office Takes about an hour wait in line…], the HOA promised it would get fixed a month ago, it was a lie.

    The same HOA is inspecting yards and carports tomorrow to issue fines….LOL…sounds like our Seattle Type local government, costly as Hades and gets nothing much “useful” done…LOL

    Ohhh…Property taxes went 3% for 2020, now I can pay more property taxes as the prices head down?

    Enjoy the sun, the Huskies got destroyed by Stanford too…

  217. 467
    Joe says:

    Erik,

    I wouldn’t rely on the chain of “this leads to that” logic. All it takes is one weak link and your whole theory is toast.

    All you have to know is that the era of artificial economic stimulus is ending. Low rates, government spending, tax cuts, etc. have run their course. We don’t know exactly when the reckoning will happen because we don’t know how desperate the government will be in finding new sources of artificial stimulus, but the reckoning is near. A stock market drop will likely kick off the bad times because the stock market looks ahead. Would any reasonable person be surprised if the market went down, say 20% next week, and the RE market followed suit?

    Seattle may do better than other cities in the recession because of its concentration in technology and near monopolies (Boeing, Amazon, Microsoft, etc), but even a well-entrenched monopoly suffers when overall revenues drop in the economy. Plus, Seattle is more vulnerable in some respects because personal debt levels are much higher for those who families that bought RE in the past few years.

    Be very careful. Now is not the time to leverage out on the purchase of an overvalued asset.

  218. 468

    Get Your Boeing Resume Updated, Polished and Ready for the Bloody Boeing “Layoff” Butcher Ax in 2020?

    https://www.thelayoff.com/boeing

    The hand writing on the wall, at a theater near you soon?

  219. 469
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 466
    I hope not, but you could be right. Feels like something is coming at some point.

    NMA will be launched soon and I would expect that to reduce layoffs.

  220. 470
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 465
    Do you really think Trump will let the economy tank? He understands the economy better than previous presidents. Trump will continue to pressure the fed to go to zero or negative interest rates. That alone would keep the economy propped up for 2 years.

    Remember, Trump created all this tariff mess and he will choose what he feels is the best time to “fix” this. My guess is that when he needs votes, he will magically make his trade deals after taking tariff money from these other countries. US is getting wealthier and wealthier thanks to tariffs.

    US has options to stimulate the economy and we have someone in power that knows how to spur the economy and I’m willing to bet all my money on it, which is what I’m doing. Then I’ll sell, own some mortgages, and ride the cash flow until I die.

    If Jeff Bezos ran for president, I’d vote for him. For me, it’s not about republican or Democrat. For me it’s about understand the economy or not.

  221. 471
    oldmonk says:

    RE: Erik @ 468
    on Trump or any other presidents for that matter, market moves down or up when business thinks change can happen, change brings about business insecurity. Businesses knew with House/Senate divided, no real change would happen and that caused market to remain elated. now we are getting to a time when change can happen, midterm election or due to pressures on current administration and that can cause a downturn, it could be minor or it could be a repeat of 2008.

    I do have first hand information of impending layoffs not @ Boeing but suppliers of Boeing as they are running 35% negative on revenue this year, these are specialized 3rd party suppliers (Small Business Units) and is organically a more significant number that we don’t see in the news, much more significant than Boeing layoff. I am told that if we don’t reach a resolution on Boeing situation, those SBU’s will have to let people go and given the specialization of those people, once you lose those skilled workers its very hard to rebuild that skill strength and that rebuild cycle is 4-5 years.

    And for people in IT doesn’t this Data/AI/ML sound to you like a repeat of Y2K and Dot com, I mean fluffy, fyi I work in this area and meet with CIO’s/Architects for fortune 500’s and sell them dreams on a regular basis and to me it sounds ridiculous the way IT market is “leveraged” with all the hohum about data. Stole Erik’s favorite word here :-). But thats just my opinion.

  222. 472
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 463:

    RE: Joe @ 461
    USA is taking in so much money from tariffs, we can pay or debts and inflation goes low.

    i don’t think you understand how tariffs work.

    nor do i think you understand the current predicament of trump’s budget.

  223. 473
    Any says:

    There’s a lot Erik pretends to understand but clearly doesn’t.

  224. 474
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 473
    Please enlighten me. What specifically am I incorrect about? I feel I’m really starting to understand this stuff, so I’m a little surprised I’m wrong. You owe me an explanation. You can enlighten me in the process.

  225. 475
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 472
    Explain then.

  226. 476
    MKK says:

    RE: Erik @ 465
    Tariffs likely increase inflation. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that are paid by the importing firm, and then likely passed on to consumers (in other words, us!). Please read this article:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-higher-tariffs-could-mean-for-the-u-s-economy-51557934427

    “While tariffs make U.S. producers more competitive with cheaper Chinese goods, the end result is higher prices for businesses and consumers, which stokes inflation and reduces purchasing power.”

  227. 477
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 475:

    RE: kenmorem @ 472
    Explain then.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/heres-why-us-importers-and-consumers-pay-trumps-tariffs-not-china.html#targetText=How%20tariffs%20really%20work,of%20their%20shipments%20clearing%20customs.

    you and i pay the tariffs. you might as well just increase taxes and it’ll accomplish the same thing. or, just not give the ultra rich a tax break like was passed in the tcja

    i will let the budget deficit play out and you’ll see. basically, their budget was based on a higher GDP than is occurring (thanks tax cuts). so, there’ll be an even larger deficit than projected. but, it doesn’t matter. GOP is in charge and therefore deficit spending = NBD. wait ’til another “socialist” gets in and spends less on the budget, and is lambasted for it.

  228. 478

    Time to Gulp Down the Pre-Lunch Yuban and Scan the Brief for News That Affects Your Seattle Real Estate Buying Agenda

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, October 7, 2019
    Aerial view of Sammamish
    Think Seattle has gotten rich? Check out what’s happening across the lake
    Sammamish has the highest median income in the nation, according to census figures. It’s the first time a Washington city has grabbed the top ranking. FYI Guy looks at the jaw-dropping incomes across the Eastside, where four cities rank higher than San Francisco and Seattle. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    A second whistleblower has stepped forward with what the person’s lawyer says is firsthand knowledge of President Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine. And a Seattle hotelier has become a central figure in the controversy. How unusual are Trump’s actions? Former presidents’ chiefs of staff, from both parties, can barely believe what they’re seeing.

    Abigail Doerr sought advice from a woman who’s held elected office for more than a quarter-century. Why don’t you get a job as a legislative assistant, replied King County Councilmember Jeanne Kohl-Welles. Instead, Doerr, 30, is running to unseat Kohl-Welles, 76. Here’s what’s motivating the candidates in this intergenerational battle.

    “It takes almost nothing to overdose … fentanyl is a death drug.” Fentanyl-laced pills have killed at least three King County high-school students in recent weeks, part of a spike in overdose deaths. Public-health officials have a blunt warning, and they’re urging parents to talk to their kids about this.

    Hundreds of patients have been held against their will in Washington’s private psychiatric hospitals to be evaluated for involuntary commitment — only for mental-health officials to find no grounds for detaining them, The Seattle Times has found. For some, it’s shaken their faith in a system they turned to for help. Read Part 3 of “Public Crisis, Private Toll,” and explore the major findings of this Times Watchdog investigation. If you or someone you know needs mental-health support, here’s where to find it.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘OUR WINDOW TO THE WORLD’
    Kevin Larson works on a window dressing
    It’s a tight fit behind the Easy Street Records window, where Kevin Larson works to capture the essence of a new album from Angel Olsen. Larson has spent years dressing the West Seattle store’s two front windows, celebrating new and established artists with boundless creativity. Check out what he’s done with big ideas on a small budget. (Photo: Alan Berner / Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Will the Ballard P-Patch vanish, another casualty of development? Let’s not forget that gardeners are the ultimate optimists, and they know how to work. The haven of greenery needs $2 million to survive, so its volunteers have pulled off their gloves and gotten busy raising a different kind of green.

    The average American commute reached a record high last year, according to new census data. (Many Seattle-area residents will be wishing for a commute that short, thanks to the ridiculous amount of time we spend in traffic.)

    Google hoards all kinds of information about you, from your searches to your locations. But now you can set your Google data to automatically self-destruct. Here’s how.

    WORTH A READ
    It was a violent weekend in Federal Way. Police are trying to learn who shot and killed a man yesterday in a parking lot on Dash Point Road, and a teen is recovering after being shot Friday night in the Wild Waves Theme & Water Park parking lot.

    “Seattle has an unusual gift for reinvention.” Columnist Jon Talton is retiring after years of covering the seismic changes in our local business world, from Washington Mutual’s collapse to Amazon’s turbocharged growth. Read his final column.

    Human fire lookouts have a breathtaking job: to scan the horizon for smoke and alert authorities before a fire becomes deadly. In their heyday, more than 8,000 fire lookouts spanned the U.S. Today our region has only 50.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Public safety is a problem in parts of Seattle, raising questions about the discretion and performance of City Attorney Pete Holmes. He must respond with solutions, not excuses, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 62. Low 46. Sunrise 7:16. Sunset 6:37. ..”

    SWE’s Take:

    East side household incomes top $100K Mean? What the Hades does that mean? Got raw data, besides an ambiguous Census Bureau allegation [give us the URL Seattle Times]….huh? Cat got your Tongue Seattle Times? Is it all Fake News?

    All I know as a mathematician [not just a political hack journalist exaggerating avg household income with cooked books] is the avg Joe pay per capita pay is about $20/hr [about $40K/yr] in Seattle, Kansas City, NYC, etc, etc….real estate prices for potential 1st Time buyers don’t control an automatic increase in per capita pay just because. Where’s the Raw data math explanation in writing and with real data? Hidden in your magician sleeve? Is this like Dire Strait’s Popular Song, “Money For Nothing? LOL There’s about 1.2 incomes avg per Seattle Households, East Side too. You do the math, they did teach you arithmetic in the Seattle Public Schools I hope.

    Where’s our affordable Health Care planning and homelessness cures? In the same magician sleeve? Keep chasing Orange Head around with an impeachment base ball bat and discover an empty Dem baseball stadium when the Mariners play in 2020…LOL

    Property Taxes went up 3% for me in 2020 for SE King County as home prices decrease? If only the property tax increases meant better public schools [55% of King County property tax funds in writing are allocated for public schools] in the Seattle area, it doesn’t at all. We lag Kansas public schools with twice the property taxes allocated to schools….we’re wasting our school budgets. Kansas still has $600/mo rent [and no homelessness problems] for SFHs on large scenic lots….where’s the beef? Replaced with toxic Veggie Burger chemicals they don’t warn us about too?

  229. 479
    N says:

    Heavily funded real estate startup Compass moves in on Amazon with big new Seattle tech center

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/heavily-funded-real-estate-startup-compass-moves-amazon-big-new-seattle-tech-center/

  230. 480

    RE: N @ 479
    More Veggie Burgers Without Toxic Chemicals Analysis?

    I read some good Raw Data needs about AMZ on the Bubble with better rationalization than I have, but the URL you gave us is a nothing burger. How many engineers does AMZ hire? .01% of the work force? How many $15/hr warehouse workers doe AMZ hire? 99% of the workforce?

    If lies are real if we eliminate the Raw Data, why read the news at all?

  231. 481
    richard says:

    RE: N @ 479RE: N @ 479RE: N @ 479 – Liz Warren, please save us from these well funded institution house flippers.

  232. 482
    Justme says:

    NWMLS sales numbers for September are out

    King County SFH+Condo median is down (-2.7%) YoY at 593,750. Coincidentally, MoM, SFH+Condo are down by the exact same percentage (-2.7% MoM), as the Aug 2019 value was $610,000. That’s a rather sharp MoM drop.

    As for the sub-county breakouts, many Seattle-proper subregions stood out with a lots of negative numbers. A fortress area like 700 – Queen Anne, Magnolia registered a whopping decline at -14.99%.

  233. 483
    BacktoBasics says:

    By Justme @ 482:

    NWMLS sales numbers for September are out

    King County SFH+Condo median is down (-2.7%) YoY at 593,750. It SFH+Condo are also down by the same percentage (-2.7%) MoM as the Aug 2019 value was $610,000. That’s a rather sharp MoM drop.

    As for the sub-county breakouts, many Seattle-proper subregions stood out with a lots of negative numbers. A fortress area like 700 – Queen Anne, Magnolia registered a whopping decline at -14.99%.

    Home owner does’t care about price change. If house price up +20%, or down -20%, they can’t sell. If they sell, where are they going to stay. Housing is not a bitcoin or stock.

  234. 484
    Justme says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 483

    LOL, homeowners don’t care that the price dropped? Let me tell you, they care a lot! You see these homeowners here on SB all the time, trying to talk prices up. If a house price drops by 20%, it means you could have been paying 80% of your current mortgage per month, and total, if only you had waited.

    And there is also another group that cares about prices: Potential homebuyers. For the same reason.

    I think you really need to go back to basics, dude.

  235. 485
    Eastsider says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 483:

    Home owner does’t care about price change. If house price up +20%, or down -20%, they can’t sell. If they sell, where are they going to stay. Housing is not a bitcoin or stock.

    Homeowners should care about home prices for a number of reasons –
    1. Property tax is based on home prices.
    2. You may have to sell for a number of reasons (e.g. death, job, age).
    3. You may not be able to refinance/upsize/downsize.
    4. Your children may not be able to afford this area if prices are out of reach.
    5. It may affect financial means testing.
    6. Lastly, an upside down mortgage is bad for your mental health.

  236. 486
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 482

    I find it particularly interesting that although mortgage rates were at a record low in August, the resulting transactions that largely closed in Sep 2019 still could not keep the median from dropping. And that is even with sales counts being pretty high.

    What this all means is that a lot of sellers crowded the exits, because they know prices will fall further. At the same time, a decent amount of rate-focused falling-knife-catchers decided to jump in, but not enough of them to keep the median steady. The sellers were the smart ones. Some buyers will get an expensive lesson soon.

  237. 487
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 482

    From NWMLS press release:

    “In King County, prices were down nearly 2.7% while pending sales rose nearly 10%. This tells us there is no shortage of buyers in the Greater Seattle area,” stated Jacobi.

    Sales count up 10%, but prices down 2.7%? I think that means not enough buyers to keep prices up, Obi-wan Jacobi. In other words, a SHORTAGE of willing buyers, even with record low mortgage rates. LOL.

  238. 488
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justme @ 487 – Sales collapsed last year. That makes it an easy comparison. Sales ‘up'(?!) 10% yoy but still below comparable month in 2017, 2016, 2015,…!!! Prices are still tanking despite massive drop in mortgage rates/monthly payments yoy. Someone made a bold prediction that prices had stabilized and would continue climbing… Fake news from REIC LOL

  239. 489
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 487RE: Justme @ 486RE: Justme @ 484RE: Justme @ 482
    Funny you would lead with the SFR + Condo – since this thread, and those like it, are all about the SFR only numbers. Feeling a need to enhance your case?

    “In other words, a SHORTAGE of willing buyers, even with record low mortgage rates. LOL”
    “What this all means is that a lot of sellers crowded the exits,”
    SFR sales up over 7.5%; Inventory down almost 20%. That’s some shortage of buyers. That’s some crowding the exits. LOL

    “I find it particularly interesting that although mortgage rates were at a record low in August, the resulting transactions that largely closed in Sep 2019 still could not keep the median from dropping. And that is even with sales counts being pretty high.”
    But we both know the the high end has been falling behind. That would infer negative movement in the median without necessarily any negative movement in the price for a house in the great low to mid range. In fact, last year there were 3 submarkets with sub $400,000 medians; now there are none.

    Still, to use your methodology, the 2018 King County SFR median house buyer is down $8,000 YOY. Nobody likes to lose money, but how much better must that person feel than the guy who made the wrong call in 2015, and is now down $170,000. I’ll bet he hasn’t added that much to his down payment account. Oops.

  240. 490
    N says:

    Some interesting data (from the Seattle TImes piece). Mainly following the trend we have seen – Seattle condos down 12% YOY but sales up.

    North King County condos down 26%

    Seattle is the only region down YOY, even higher priced Bellevue is up.

    Magnolia/Queen Anne down 16% YOY.
    West Seattle down 8% YOY (although I’ve seen a bunch of recent sales going above list there).
    North Seattle down 10% YOY.
    Central Seattle UP 7.1%
    Everett UP 8%
    Burien UP 14%
    Downtown down 13%.

    Looks like the winner goes to Bellevue east of 405 – down 35% YOY to a cool 2.15M

    I think we always get too excited about one month YOY as well, and never talk about YTD numbers.

  241. 491
    N says:

    Sorry for the double post – but it read should west of 405 in Bellevue down 35% YOY (Not East)

  242. 492
    SeattleBubble says:

    Are we talking about condos or SFH? or multi-million or entry level single million SFH? Entry level SFH price still up as I read. How many Bezos here to buy multi-million mansions here? I guess most people here are still living in apartment and wish to buy SFH at 40% discount. I wish so, I am set aside 20% down pay in 1% CD for years. Please tell me when it is the bottom.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/subscribe/signup-offers/?pw=redirect&subsource=paywall&return=https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/the-markets-chilled-out-but-seattle-home-prices-still-too-hot-for-many-first-time-buyers/

    https://www.seattletimes.com/subscribe/signup-offers/?pw=redirect&subsource=paywall&return=https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/sales-slow-for-pricey-homes-in-the-seattle-area-but-modestly-priced-houses-are-still-hot/

  243. 493

    I Have My Yuban With Milk and the:
    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, October 8, 2019
    Garth Carroll
    Seattle found contamination at former homeless camp, but its residents say they were never told
    Seattle warned city workers that they might have been exposed to toxic compounds during a cleanup at a homeless encampment. But many of the camp’s former residents say they heard nothing, and they still live nearby. This underscores a tough question: Do Seattle’s increasing removals get people into shelter, or merely ricochet people around the city? Garth Carroll, above, who lives in an RV, was among the residents of the contaminated site. Read the Times Watchdog story. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Home sales have slowed and prices have dipped in the Seattle area. But there are exceptions: Prices have jumped in some spots, and massive new properties are flying off the market in an affluent Eastside city that keeps making the news. Take an area-by-area look, and learn about how local homes have gotten thousands of dollars cheaper because of a rule change.

    Are Seattle schools really teaching that “math is racist”? Conservative news outlets are berating the district after it released a draft of new learning objectives that integrate ethnic studies into math. Here’s a deeper look at what this involves, and why it’s happening.

    A fugitive alert has been issued by Washington’s Most Wanted for Ronald Clayton, 41, a convicted rapist who cut off his GPS tracker yesterday. He spent years in prison after entering a woman’s home with a gun, binding her, raping her and strangling her nearly to death, Q13 News reports. Clayton had told authorities he planned to stay in Tacoma.

    The Southwest Airlines pilots union is blistering Boeing in a lawsuit, alleging that the jetmaker put profits ahead of safety and deliberately misled pilots about the 737 MAX before two deadly crashes. “Boeing should never have put any pilot in a situation like that,” the union’s president said as he talked about the $115 million lawsuit.

    Brrrr! Grab your warm coat and get ready for some “interesting” weather. The next couple nights will be especially cold, and thunderstorms are possible before things brighten up a bit.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    UP IN SMOKE
    Ballard fire
    What caused the blaze that severely damaged five Ballard businesses? Crews will be trying to learn that today as an effort to help the business owners is launched. Nearby residents and workers watched nervously yesterday as heavy winds pushed flames down the block, and some made quick choices about what to grab from their buildings. A video shows the battle against flames. (Photo: Andy Bao / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    How humans can help Puget Sound’s struggling orcas and salmon: “The happy talk has got to give way” to solutions, one expert says. Explore the actions that Seattle leaders say can make a difference, and read more about the orcas’ plight in our Hostile Waters series.

    Fall in Lake Chelan is the area’s best-kept secret: The pace slows down, blue skies abound and the smell of harvest surrounds you everywhere you go. Learn more about what the season has to offer.

    WORTH A READ
    One Seattle City Council candidate wants to bridge divides as more police officers are hired. The other wants to explore alternatives to adding police. Rivals Tammy Morales and Mark Solomon bring unique backgrounds to the rapidly changing District 2. More election help:

    Meet all of the City Council candidates and see where they stand on key issues.
    Meet the Seattle School Board candidates and learn why they’re running.

    The Huskies desperately need to adapt, having failed again and again to overcome deficits at the half.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 51. Low 39. Sunrise 7:17. Sunset 6:35.

    SWE’s Take:

    Homelessness Filth is not news its a salient fact.

    International Hollywood uses cheap unskilled actors, the quality of films now a days sucks, when The Joker is the shining apple…LOL

    Great comment on Orcas, now admit the solution, reduce GROWTH in Seattle, got a better way to slow sewage rinse into Puget Sound?

  244. 494

    RE: SeattleBubble @ 491
    You Hate Condos Too

    So do I…I swear all my neighbors had Superman’s hearing abilities, I’d put my stereo on soft and they’d complain…

  245. 495
    SeattleBubble says:

    Condo is good or bad. Like live in apt, your have neighbors. But you don’t have to cut lawn and maintain public area. Save your time to to some other things. But the you don’t own the land and high HOA fees.

  246. 496
    N says:

    To chime in on condos – It’s a lifestyle choice, and yes dues can be high and be higher due to bad management or be too low with no reserves. But what they cover is also key. How much do you pay for sewer, garbage, water? Living in a SFH it is not cheap. Then add in the suggested 1% the purchase price for home maintenance and all of a sudden HOA dues don’t seem so bad. Most SFH owners treat their home like a bad HOA does, with so reserves set aside.

    Let’s say $150/month for sewer/water garbage and lets just go easy and say 0.05% for home maintenance on a $700k home = $291 month. Total $441 month for a SFH. Up it to a full 1% and your at $733. Food for thought.

  247. 497

    RE: N @ 496

    ” Most SFH owners treat their home like a bad HOA does…”

    LOVE that!

  248. 498
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 489

    Be careful not to use those fancy words such as “infer”. People might infer that you are desperate and trying to sound important, but not quite able to use the word properly in a sentence. Sort of like a pretentious landed gentry wannabe.

  249. 499
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 498 – infer hasn’t been a fancy word since 9th grade. Here is part 2 of a 3 part definition at thefreedictionary.com. “To involve by logical necessity; entail: ‘Socrates argued that a statue inferred the existence of a sculptor ‘”
    It is a pretty fine distinction from “imply”, and they do note that the use for imply is becoming more common. In fact, the number 3 meaning is “to hint or imply.” When one’s arguments on topic are so weak that one depends exclusively on grammar barbs, the other person better be actually incorrect. Otherwise one looks even more pathetic.

  250. 500
    uwp says:

    Inventory growth continues its stall in September per NWMLS.
    In 2018, SFH inventory grew every month from June-Sept, roughly +1,500 units total.
    This year, SFH inventory fell each of those months, roughly -400 units total.

    I could see a recession coming in the next year, but (like Erik) I could see Trump eyeing the 2020 election and declaring himself the winner of the Trade Wars while agreeing to some meaningless agreement with China then also cutting taxes and the market rips higher because nothing seems to actually matter. If that happens while inventory keeps dropping and rates stay low, this could be the last good chance to score our “move-up” house.

    Our search for house #2 warms up, as we watch for signs of what the next season will look like.

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