NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

593 comments:

  1. 501
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-governor-signs-statewide-rent-control-law-2019-10-08?mod=MW_home_top_stories

    So, is there a general consensus of how this affects real estate prices? Will this cause home prices to sky rocket, stay the same, or go down as a direct result of this?

  2. 502
    Justme says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 499 – \

    LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.

    From reference:

    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.

    3. (Usage Problem) To indicate indirectly; imply.

  3. 503
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Oh, I see. Uwp is hoping for higher prices so that he can buy house #2 at a higher price. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. NOT! Why is his search just “warming up”? The prices had fallen too much from the May 2018 peak, and you felt like it would be to cheap to buy one?

    >>this could be the last good chance to score our “move-up” house.

    Jeez, when was the previous good chance, one might ask? Why did you not buy then?

    Conclusion: Uwp is talking nonsense, but for a reason: He wants YOU to bid up the price on his already overpriced house. He’s not going to buy another one at peak levels. If he claims to do so, he should prove it.

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername. You two are the tag-team of bubble-mongering propaganda illogic. Nobody should follow the advice of these clowns.

    PS: How is your famed “helping the millenials get a house” project going?

  4. 504

    The California Rent Control is a 5% CAP Plus Inflation

    What effect will this have on Seattle home prices? I see little or no change now. But if the CAP came to Seattle I’m sure it will dampen landlord clout and and buying frenzy in low vacancy areas with high rent and property tax increases. Older “money pit” neighborhoods needing “continuous museum home type”remodeling and large rent increases to pay for it will feel the sucker punch too IMO.

    Take off your winter parka, put the ice scraper in the glove compartment, you’ve arrived through the 35 degree morning fog to your offices for a cup of Yuban: BTW, Yuban is $6.88 for the 38 ounce Jumbo Sized can at WINCO…LOL…time to scan the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, October 9, 2019
    Asa Palagi, 25, and Patricia Palagi, 81
    The divide between new and old Seattle is more complicated than it seems
    Patricia Palagi, 81, is a Seattle transplant who has voted for socialist City Councilmember Kshama Sawant. Her grandson, Asa Palagi, 25, says he’s “the opposite of grandma,” but they enjoy talking about the issues together. These two voters illustrate how the “new Seattle” and “old Seattle” stereotypes skip over key perspectives that will matter in the Nov. 5 election. And here’s where you can compare City Council candidates and watch them debate. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Severe wildfire danger has millions of Californians in the dark. A major utility this morning began shutting down power to parts of 34 counties to reduce the worst fire risks the state has seen. Schools are closed and major cities are affected, including Oakland, San Jose and Berkeley. In some places, outages could last several days. Here’s a Q&A on the effects.

    On your ballot: Opponents of Tim Eyman’s car-tab Initiative 976 are focusing on how its cuts would hit roads, bridges and buses. Getting less attention: the billions of dollars Sound Transit could lose, a close look at the initiative shows. Meanwhile, a Seattle foundation has given big bucks to the campaign for Referendum 88, which would reinstate affirmative action.

    Snow, snow, snow … It fell in heaps overnight on Stevens and Snoqualmie passes, and broke a 38-year-old record as it downed power lines in Spokane. In Western Washington, we have some chilly nights ahead.

    The White House has declared a halt to any cooperation with the impeachment probe. This sets up a constitutional clash that could have sweeping consequences, and the Constitution didn’t exactly come with an instruction manual on impeachment. Here’s what it says about who can do what. (By the way, the folks who are calling impeachment proceedings a “kangaroo court” presided over by a “malicious Captain Kangaroo” have gotten their phrasing all mixed up.)
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SEATTLE SKETCHER
    Sketch of Monorail Espresso
    Check out one of Seattle’s tiniest and cutest coffeehouses, located in a grand downtown building. There’s a story behind the name of the company, which has plans to grow. (Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)

    Russell Wilson’s numbers are so fun to think about these days. Five standout stats reveal plenty about Wilson and the Hawks so far. While we’re counting, here are five things to know about the Seahawks’ next opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, ex-Hawk Richard Sherman has a weird feud going with the Browns’ quarterback.

    The man who brought us the insanely popular Halo franchise has a new project. Harold Ryan’s ProbablyMonsters is out to disrupt the game industry.

    A strange, compelling theater production has Christians confronting damnation — with a twist. Dropping the performance into actual churches around Seattle has a disorienting effect.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods turned $5 million worth of guns into scrap metal after 17 people were gunned down at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Chief Executive Ed Stack is talking about how a “need to stand up and say something” drove a decision that cost his company a quarter of a billion dollars.
    Provided by Sound Pain Solutions
    Numb feet. Sharp pain in the hands. A fuzzy feeling in the extremities. Neuropathy can cause extreme sensitivity to the touch. Despite claims that there’s nothing you can do about it, these newly approved therapies offer relief.
    WORTH A READ
    Double whammy for Boeing: American Airlines has pushed out the return of its 737 MAX jets until January while it waits out delays in Boeing submitting its final software fixes to the FAA. And Russian carrier Aeroflot has canceled its order for 22 Dreamliners, which is cause for concern in Everett.

    Turkish troops today began invading Syria after President Donald Trump’s move to pull American troops out unleashed a flood of criticism. Trump this morning defended his decision to step back from Syrian Kurds, longtime U.S. allies. Here’s a look at who’s involved in this conflict and what they want.

    A high school is a “slave ship”? The racial imbalances in Seattle’s gifted program should be addressed, but zapping the program entirely “seems both knee-jerk and self-defeating,” columnist Danny Westneat writes. He has some different ideas on what should happen.

    Dreaming of the weekend: How about starting your Saturday with pumpkin pancakes, or perhaps wandering in a sea of red and gold leaves? This weekend’s top happenings include fall fests in Carnation and at the Seattle Japanese Garden.

    A winery with a pie-focused menu … oh my. Elsom Cellars in Sodo has been drawing customers in with delectable pairings and its intriguing Adventure Pie. And if you’ve never had a momo, you might want to try the juicy little flavor-bomb dumplings, which can be found in Lake Forest Park. (Is it lunchtime yet?)
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Being on “Jeopardy!” is like a job interview. Seattle writer Amy Swanson King appeared on the show last summer, and says it prepared her for interviews in the real-world workplace – and making up words like “herbivoregon.”
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Renton voters should elect attorney Kim-Khahn Van to City Council Position 7, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. As a first-generation immigrant from Vietnam, Van can be a strong voice to develop Renton’s sense of inclusion. And Ryan McIrvin deserves to be re-elected to Position 4 in November. He has emerged as an effective voice for meeting the city’s housing and transportation needs.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Sunny, but brrrrrr! High 52. Low 36. Sunrise 7:19. Sunset 6:33.

    SWE’s Take:

    BTW, “whistle blowers” uncovering Boeing Plane defects are not a legal reason to attack Boeing without additional backup evidence from a known source and a clear match to root “safety” cause with Boeing defense presenting its case too….its kangaroo court evidence as an unknown source, not real until clarified with details and backup by both Defendant and Prosecutor. Same with impeachment, ask any attorney.

    I thought the Kurds were in Iraq, not Syria? Wherever the Hades they are, let’s take care of the gun violence and mental illness that causes it America First…then get monetary help from the EU before we get stuck with their Syria police bills…solving their refugee OVERPOPULATION after we solve our own is all we can afford. The war monger Never Trumper GOP disagrees with me, but I’d think the liberals would love less war mongering in endless wars…I guess not?

    Hey my home went up 3% for 2020 property taxes assessments, that’s $500/mo folks, that should cover the “museum piece home maintenance” per year and still leave you with no elbow room for property tax increases and rent CAPs…LOL…pity the landlord in 1920 areas of Seattle. But still, the 3% increase is better than a kick in the pants, and I’m the low tier price group that’s still going up and mine was built in 1991…LOL

  5. 505

    Time to Log Off for About an Hour and Pretend You’re Busy Anyway

    MSFT just announced on my laptop with business S/W I have more endless patches to install, now its twice a week? What’s in those patches anyway? Doorways to infect MALWARE into your laptops? LOL

    MSFT always lends a helping hand for work productivity…..not…

  6. 506
    richard says:

    By Justme @ 503:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername.

    haha

  7. 507
    Sfrz says:

    @theTim congrats on your Shiba puppy! A great addition to the family.

  8. 508
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 502:

    “LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.”

    My usage is the first definition that I mentioned – “To involve by logical necessity; entail: ‘Socrates argued that a statue inferred the existence of a sculptor ‘”. My statement parallels in that we logically conclude that if you remove a lot of high end sales, the median (midpoint in the range) will shift down without any price reductions. This is not a hint, nor is it indirect. You ignored this entirely.

    I anticipated you were caught in some OCD obsession with “imply”, so I handed you part of the source statement regarding common usage, and the fact that it is accepted, understood, even put into the definition when transitive. Not preferred is not the same as not correct, Mr. Pot. Implication was that if you hadn’t already been wrong of the first point; you would be wrong on this one.

    Also, I wouldn’t expect anyone to find my vocabulary impressive, complicated or important sounding, (present company excluded). I think you’ve got a problem with projection. Do you feel important nitpicking English on a real estate blog? Is this compensation for being dead wrong on the real estate part? Guess what: you’re dead wrong here too.

    “From reference:
    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.”

    My reference is pretty extensive in the contrast, but basically it comes down to deduction and conclusion vs suggestion and indirectness. This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted. I think it’s placement in your message is simple dishonesty. It’s almost like we’re talking real estate.

  9. 509
    Any says:

    Bay Area prices still falling despite the crazy low unemployment and crazy low rates. What happens when either or both start to normalize?

    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Home-Prices-See-Gradual-Drop-562226991.html

    Anecdotally, I noticed recently while looking at Bay Area sales that a seemingly large % of the pending sales are contingent. Obviously that’s night and day different to what you would have seen a few years ago, so what does it mean? Obviously buyers have less liquidity, fewer cash buyers. But what else?

  10. 510
    richard says:

    very good talk about housing market, must see
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c

  11. 511
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 509
    Ha! You are 5 years behind

  12. 512

    When Moisture Clouds Meet This 32 Degree Morning Ice

    Its too early to install the studded tires and chains, you will need gloves [ski mask too?] and a heavy winter coat this morning, snow accumulation next week? So give up and gulp down a Yuban while reading the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    hursday, October 10, 2019

    A man who tried to kidnap his ex-girlfriend led officers on a high-speed chase from Bellevue to Renton and Seattle yesterday, police say. Video shows how the chase ended with a terrifying experience for the driver of a minivan he tried to carjack.

    A “great deal of rot” caused the collapse of 26 Seattle City Light poles in Tukwila in April, an outside investigation has concluded. The collapse, captured on video, crushed a car and sent two people to the hospital. Seattle City Light says it’s trying to make changes quickly.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    “We couldn’t breathe … the aircraft snapped into a rapid roll.” A new book by the captain who landed Southwest Airlines’ only fatal flight describes how close the Boeing 737 came to complete disaster when debris tore apart an engine last year. One passenger died after she was nearly sucked out of a window. Meanwhile, more than 5% of older 737 jets that recently underwent urgent inspections will be grounded after cracks were found in what’s known as the “pickle fork.”

    Keep your fuzzy hat handy, because Seattle-area residents will be shivering a bit longer before we return to “unsettled” weather. But clear skies mean a chance to see the Draconid meteor shower tonight. Meanwhile, Spokane is digging out from the surprise snowstorm that cut power to more than 30,000 homes.

    A homeless woman’s $1 trailer touched off a storm in West Seattle. Briar Rose Williams bought it and parked it — in front of the home of a Seattle city council member, coincidentally. That touched off a frenzy of speculation about whether it was an activist’s political stunt, and Williams returned to find a vandalized mess.

    About 1.3 million school kids are homeless in the U.S., a 70% increase in the last decade. Students struggle to learn when basic needs aren’t met. Here’s the impact on Seattle public school students and what’s being done to help.
    WORTH A READ
    Frustrations are erupting in a darkened California, with angry residents sounding off and police reporting that a bullet was fired at a Pacific Gas & Electric Co. vehicle amid the state’s biggest planned power outage ever. Wineries are in the dark at a crucial time: harvest. And the outage, meant to prevent wildfires, means problems for electric-car owners.

    Flash bangs and a gunshot rang out in a Federal Way store parking lot yesterday as a SWAT team cornered a suspect in the killing of a high-school student. Another suspect was arrested without incident in the death of Juan Carlos Con Guzman, 16, whose body was found in the Green River last month.

    Any home built before 1978 is presumed to contain lead, a toxic metal widely used in paint, pipes and finishes prior to a national ban. Ingested or breathed in, lead harms the brain, kidneys and other organs. Here are homeowners’ options.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    A partnership between Microsoft and the King County Housing Authority shows the sort of creativity and partnership that’s needed as the region works to address its shortage of affordable housing, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What the hell? Christians debate damnation in the play ‘The Christians,’ performed in Seattle churches.
    Now streaming: ‘Toy Story 4,’ ‘El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie,’ ‘Little Monsters’
    Enjoy the colors and activities of fall at festivals in Carnation and the Seattle Japanese Garden

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Don’t be fooled by the sunshine. High 58. Low 39. Sunrise 7:20. Sunset 6:31.

    SWE’s take:

    The Chinese buffets are the best buy, but the sliced beef roasts chew like leather rawhide. If ya want a decent steak, find a a good bar that fries ’em…

    Those rotted power poles aren’t cheap, try about $20K a piece.

    1.3 million homeless kids mixed in with the normal kids? Check for lice weekly? TB checks of your kids a good idea now? How do the homeless shower, in an ice cold rest area sink? Do the homeless kids stink and wear dirty clothes? Sounds like we need tons of Foster Homes instead?

    i

  13. 513
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 508

    >>This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted.

    Anyone can see it for themselves at https://www.thefreedictionary.com/infer , and there it is. That’s the reference you used, dude. You just accused me of dishonesty, but it was YOU that was wrong. No Socrates for you!

  14. 514
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 513 – Weird, the Mary Embree citation did not come up for me before. If you scroll down, you will see citations from multiple dictionaries saying something very different.

    Still, I was wrong on that fact.

  15. 515
    Erik says:

    Nice to see inventory dip below 4000 today.

    This market is primed for another bull run before the next bust. My guess is that trump closes the trade deal with China this winter and we have a beautiful price increase here in Seattle this spring.

  16. 516
    MKK says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 501
    Economics teacher here, so I like your question about the effects of rent control. Economists agree that rent control usually leads to a shortage of rental units because it is no longer as profitable for landlords to own them. They either sell them if they are single family or convert them to condos if they are apartments. Or alternatively, landlords keep the rental units but reduce their costs by deferring maintenance and allowing them to decay.
    You don’t hear much discussion of the effects of rent control on the real estate market, but I would hazard to guess that is puts downward pressure on home values. Landlords see less profit and sell, increasing the supply of housing. For those landlords who don’t sell, their deferred maintenance issues brings down the value of the whole neighborhood.

  17. 517
    MKK says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 501
    Here is a good article on the subject of rental control, with some great case studies of Cambridge and San Fran: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/

  18. 518
    dariakus says:

    RE: Erik @ 515 – Beauty is in the eye of the beholder :)

  19. 519
    Erik says:

    RE: dariakus @ 516
    I just wanna see the people waiting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect moment get served a fat slice of humble pie. I’ve fought these fools on here and in real life since 2013. Some people just have zero grit, so they analyze real estate until they prove to themselves they shouldn’t buy. It’s hard to watch.

  20. 520
    RoboHouse says:

    By Erik @ 517:

    RE: dariakus @ 516
    I just wanna see the people waiting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect moment get served a fat slice of humble pie. I’ve fought these fools on here and in real life since 2013. Some people just have zero grit, so they analyze real estate until they prove to themselves they shouldn’t buy. It’s hard to watch.

    Imagine a man who owns an investment, profits greatly from it, and tells others to do the same as he has done. When they don’t comply, he “fights” them and then waits around for them to experience misfortune and demise so he can stand over their huddled bodies and laugh at them.

    Pretty sad.

  21. 521

    RE: Erik @ 517
    Erik

    Your Baby Photo Needs a Change

    have it holding a a toy hammer with vigor…LOL

    Yep, Erik has grit alright, ya know ya have a much better chance to succeed when you imagine “win” at the end…the rest of the spineless lemming lambs pay full list price.

  22. 522

    In Seattle its Much Worse With Our High Rent and Low Wages With Growing Homelessness

    Its not 40% here but 60-70% of all workers totally stressed out in Seattle Squeeze traffic, lame jobs, defective outsourced manufacturing and H-1B replacement fears….

    https://www.studyfinds.org/perpetual-stress-four-in-ten-adults-close-to-breaking-point-at-work/

    Chill out with a bottle of Corona rotgut, the new version of Halo is out, grab it up, its only $80 a cartridge at Game Flop. Gobble your filling “meaty” Subway with a small paper candy container of measured meat, the rest mostly lettuce and bun.

  23. 523
    JustNoise says:

    Posted by The Tim on Redfin:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/september-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1011565&inquirySource=367

    “More sellers are pricing their homes a little below the price they expect to sell at, which is encouraging bidding wars to drive up price,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas. “In addition to teaser pricing like this, I’ve seen very aggressive price drops happening more often lately.”

  24. 524
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    The only reason Erik posts here is to prove that hubris is a thing,

  25. 525
    Any says:

    “In nearby San Jose, 18 percent of offers faced competition in September, down from 83 percent a year earlier.”

    This number is pretty staggering. In Sept 2018, even as interest rates neared their peaks and home prices were higher than they are now, still competition on 83 percent of offers there.

    Now, with slightly lower prices and much lower rates, only 18 percent of offers facing competition for the same month. The demand is drying up in a big way in San Jose.

    And this is with employment as good as it can possibly be with an economy on a fast track to recession.

  26. 526
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 518
    Ha! Will-do. I’ll take a picture of little man when he’s hungry for milk. That picture may scare some of the people on here. I can hear it now “Tim, Tim, Tim, Erik offended me with his hangry baby picture.”

  27. 527
    Erik says:

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 521
    The computer programmers on here tried hard to drag me down from 2010 until i had a success in 2013. They were unbelievably rude and hurtful. If you weren’t part of the code monkey beat down, I can see how you wouldn’t understand as you don’t have context.

  28. 528

    Time for a Cup of Yuban While Gobbling Down Your Addam’s Family Black Whip Cream Pancakes at a Denny’s Near You

    Its the same day late Friday copy you found free on the breakfast counter:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 11, 2019
    Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold talks with Michael Cox and Briar Rose Williams
    ‘I’m really sorry those people threatened you’
    A story that kept unfolding yesterday captured how quickly the politics around Seattle homelessness can explode. When Briar Rose Williams and Michael Cox parked a $1 trailer near the home of Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold, left, they landed in a firestorm. Before it was over, Williams would be threatened with a knife, the trailer vandalized, and a harsh spotlight cast on the couple, when all they wanted was a home. Now an activist who helped the story catch fire is trying to make things right. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Weekend traffic alert: A quarter-million travelers will need to detour or cancel trips into Seattle this weekend. Construction at various times will block Highway 520, Highway 99 and Sound Transit light rail downtown. Check traffic before you go.

    Millions of retirees will get a pay bump from Social Security next year. But “money is buying less and less,” some retirees point out as they fault the way the increase is calculated. For the average retiree, the monthly raise would buy about four Big Mac Meals.

    “Please just pack up and leave now.” Multiple homes have been destroyed and fire officials are telling more than 100,000 people to flee a fast-moving blaze in Los Angeles County. Thousands more people could soon find themselves in the dark as California widens preventive power shutoffs that have already affected millions of people.

    More than half of Washington’s bird species face trouble as forests shrink, sea levels rise and the seasons warm, according to a new Audubon study. If climate change continues on its current trajectory, “we are talking about huge changes in all aspects of their life history,” says an Audubon Washington official.

    After days of record cold temperatures, we’re back to our regularly scheduled weather programming. But we should have enough of a break in the clouds to spy a big, orange hunter’s moon. Here’s the forecast and a little lesson for sky-watchers.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    The fugitive sex offender who cut off his GPS tracker has been arrested in Enumclaw, “thanks to good old-fashioned police work,” the Pierce County Sheriff’s Office says.

    The $99 million Burke Museum finally opens tomorrow. Take a peek at the new, open, inside-out museum. Its opening is just one of the great things to do in the Seattle area this weekend. New restaurants, haunted houses, the mind-bending new Will Smith film and more await.

    Provided by City University of Seattle
    Turn local industry training into academic credit – hands-on experience provides a boost to workers entering a new job or field. Learn how adult learners and nontraditional students can apply valuable life experience toward a degree.
    WORTH A READ
    One King County councilmember’s challenger doesn’t want to win. Instead, he wants to shine a light on what he calls one of “the biggest transportation boondoggles in history.” Meanwhile, another councilmember faces an opponent who’s outraged about public safety. Here’s what you should know about the races in districts 6 and 8.

    “A very explosive team” is lurking behind the Huskies’ un-explosive stats, running back Salvon Ahmed says. Can that team emerge Saturday against Arizona? They won’t have Richard Newton, but there’s good news for the ailing running back.

    A teen came home from school to find his agitated dog in the driveway, broken glass on the porch and a godawful smell coming from inside. What he found made for “the most random story in the world” — and some wild photos, too. More Friday head-scratchers:

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Hikes without crowds, leaf-peeping and the anticipation of winter sports are the pleasures that accompany the sudden cold. Warm up to it with fall jackets and boots – and a lightweight ski/bike helmet with a pre-installed speaker!
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The years of no progress toward a new I-5 bridge over the Columbia River must end. Commuters and long-haul travelers between Washington and Oregon require immediate attention to be paid to this massive infrastructure need, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘The Addams Family’ review: a kooky but not-so-spooky animated feature
    Pianist Lang Lang, once dubbed ‘Bang Bang’ for his flashy technique, brings exquisite refinement to Seattle Symphony concert
    In his brilliant new book, Timothy Egan searches for faith in a secular world

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 64. Low 43. Sunrise 7:22. Sunset 6:29….”

    SWE’s Take:
    The Trump retirees’ Social Security went up about 2% in 2020, beats the 0% Obama used to gives us. Trump’s 2019bMedicare Part B is about stable YOY, Obama’s Part B monthly costs were like his ACA plan YOY monthly cost increase plans, horrifying.

    Hey, did the rolling blackouts stop the “alleged” cause of California homelessness camp fires starting wild fires?….nope, they’re back irrespective of that phony cause. mitigating the homelessness crisis.

    And stop blaming wild birth deaths on Climate Change:

    https://www.wildbirdscoop.com/cats-leading-cause-of-bird-deaths.html

    Its cats, glass structures, wind power blades, etc, etc…a plethora of likely causes.

  29. 529

    Average Joe Pay in Seattle, NYC, Kansas City, etc, etc is about $20/hr Per Job and Per Capita.

    “…Nationwide, renters need to earn $20.30 an hour to afford a modest two-bedroom apartment, according to the report, and $16.35 for a one-bedroom, without exceeding the 30% threshold. In other words, to afford the typical two-bedroom unit in the U.S., renters need to make 2.8 times the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and $4.88 more than the $15.42 the average U.S. renters earns. In 14 states and Washington D.C., the housing wage exceeds $20 for a two-bedroom apartment…”

    https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/10-states-where-people-cant-really-afford-to-pay-rent.html/

    Sounds like about half the folks working in Seattle need homeless tents and camp fire gear while working…LOL

  30. 530
    Joe says:

    RE: Any @ 522

    As soon as a rational person senses home prices might go lower, the idea of leveraging out to buy a $1.5M asset loses its luster. You could lose $400k in a couple years, plus be stuck in a house you don’t even like.

    Why would anybody offer a competing bid for that opportunity?

  31. 531
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory: Buyers and sellers both being stupid: Buyers, you should wait for lower prices. Sellers, you should sell NOW rather than waste valuable time on refinancing. Higher mortgage rates and lower prices coming. #seattlebubble

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1183087340224335872

  32. 532
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 528
    Trump just made a deal with China. He cites technology and Boeing as beneficiaries of the deal.

    Hold onto your Seattle real estate! We are about to see another price bump.

  33. 533
    Any says:

    RE: Erik @ 529

    Lol @ believing Trump. He’s been manipulating the market for months. The only thing they’ve really agreed on so far is that China will buy some beans and the Oct 15th tariffs won’t go into effect. When asked about the deal Mnuchin repeatedly said “we understand the key issues but there is still much work to do.” They’ve made almost no progress in 1.5 years. China will wait for Trump to get impeached and hope the next POTUS is fine going back to the former (crappy) status quo without much hassle.

  34. 534
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 530
    Okay, I’m going to believe because he’s been right all the other times. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m buying more real estate.

  35. 535
    Any says:

    Lol @ “He’s been right all the other times.”

  36. 536

    RE: Erik @ 531
    It Looks Like the Best Real Estate to Buy From the Phase I Chinese Trade Deal is Midwest Farmland and Invest in Tractor Stock

    The deal includes like a $50B increase in farm foods [soy I assume?] to China as American exports. John Deere stock looks good now….LOL….fertilizers and diesel oil too. Yes, this could spread to Seattle too, more business travel and office computer needs.

    I was in Wisconsin and the real estate for farmland has lots of turn-over with small profit farms folding…grab up some short sell “raw land” before the buffoons figure it out….

  37. 537

    Seattle Real Estate Price Hikes are Boosted by Lower Cost Healthcare, of Course It Is

    But Hades will freeze over before the Open Border Party lifts a finger on upgrading the ACA price monster, they’re afraid if the economy improves with Congress support, Trump will get elected in 2020 because things are even better, so they purposely stall on health care reforms.

    I was reading Michael Crichton’s non-fiction “Five Patients” [1969] and the health care crisis then was for the same reasons. [ref page 64 of the book] as 2019:

    1. Private Insurance [Blue Cross, etc] was labeled the cost reason and efforts to eliminate it for cheaper insurance forced the numbers of doctors to shrink drastically.

    2. The AMA wanted Medicare eliminated and encouraged Big Pharma price hikes on prescriptions.

    3. The AMA pushed worthless cures too, like Opioids, useless tests, endless useless shots, etc, etc….Crichton call these “Blind Spots”…

    The astounding errors in judgement occurred in 1969 like 2019…but we can’t agree on the fix without Congress getting its act together, NOW.

    4. The technological breakthrough in televised checkups and computerized office visits was far more advanced in 1969 than 2019 IMO….Bioengineering and Raw Data limits can DRASTICALLY automate medical costs and eliminate the need for doctor and nurses needed on payrolls. Why have we been eliminating “wide-spread” American Hospital Bioengineering influence [we outsource most all it now] instead of encouraging it? We’re buffoons. 1969 had an advantage over today, we relied less on useless data collection computer direction contraptions and more on the engineering safety factor and their understanding.

  38. 538
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 533
    That sounds like a good plan SWE and I’d love to be that bold. I’ve never bought long distance real estate although I’d love to add that to my tool box. Do update me on how it goes flipping farmland.

    Here’s my plan… Buy 20 rentals in the city of Seattle. Rent them until the prices double. Sell 10 and buy the other 10 outright. Then I’ll meet SWE for coffee in Kent and we can talk about how nice it is living on guaranteed income. I may even join toastmasters with you.

  39. 539

    I See Gasoline at the Pump Rose About 30 cent/gal the Last Week

    The regular is $3.19/gal at Fred Meyer now.

    Add to this cost increase the “one way” tunnel toll charge from your average Joe pay checks:

    “… $1 to $2.25 with a Good To Go! pass depending on time of day…”

    Skip lunch out and bring cheap peanut butter and jelly sandwiches from home as replacements….even a single patty at Wendy’s means forking out $5 for a bite to eat….tighten the budget belts, we still have old Kingdome bills left to pay too….

    I love Seattle’s taxation, but imagine the extra traffic pouring onto I-5 Seattle to avoid the toll charge….”Super Seattle Squeeze”, at a theater near you this Thanksgiving…saw the same thing on I-405 when they tolled the Lake Washington Bridge too.

  40. 540

    RE: Erik @ 535
    I Learned Something Yesterday Reading Crichton [Harvard Medical Doctor BTW]

    History and today are more similar than we think. Hades, we’ve heard the farmers scream for starvation subsidies due to poor business decisions for decades now, and the foreclosures of farmlands has been going on for decades too. Its always a good time to richen your portfolio. Why wait? The buffoons pay list price and cry later…

    We had a more “hands-on” approach to technology [new inventions besides miniaturization of decades old “regurgitated” inventions]…our average IQs were 40 points higher than now too. The “Poptart” college graduates with no manufacturing job experience are just as useless as medical “Poptart” student interns trying to replace safety limit engineering understanding of medical practice efficiencies. Ask SWE about pick lines and nurse/doctor employment needs decreasing way down as we get it right the first time with “just a few” experienced engineers on the hospitals’ board. The solution gold ring is there, just grab it. I helped invent ultrasound insertion of picklines in the mid 90s. Its now a recognized science in nursing today. I’m just one volunteer Bioengineer, imagine a thousand of us “on board” repairing the medical devise field.

  41. 541
    Deerhawke says:

    Back from a vacation with family in Ireland. The news is similar to here in so many ways.

    Lots of talk about Brexit and the many ways Trump-mini-me Boris Johnson is going to
    – collapse the English economy leading to the end of the term Great Britain
    – further strengthen the Irish economy
    – assist in the process of Irish unification

    Kind of hard to see how the conservatives, the party of Churchill, could go along with Boris’s stupidity. But then again it is hard to see how the Republicans, the party of Lincoln and Reagan, could go along with Trump’s stupidity.

    The other big topic was the dramatic rise in the cost of housing and what to do about it.

    All the tech and fintech firms have been moving in, building and hiring. Rents have been skyrocketing. Lots of talk about rent control, but the government seems to understand this is a short term solution that creates to a huge long term problem. They are promising more public housing after paying the costs for dealing with Brexit.

  42. 542

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538
    You Support EU [German] control with Germany getting all its natural gas from Russia?

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

  43. 543
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538

    Wow, that was more convoluted than usual. Everybody, let’s have a little contest. Please fill in the blanks and see if you can help me understand

    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Great Britain
    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Ireland (if you prefer)

    Go.

  44. 544
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 539:

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

    The Kurds are 20 million- 30 million people. They have lived in their territory which is now included in parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Armenia for more than a thousand years before those nation states’ borders were imposed on them. They are not moving around for NATO money. Survival will likely dictate they align with Russia’s ally Assad against NATO member Turkey. It’s a great day for Putin.

    When did software engineer decide uneasy standoffs are war mongering perpetual war, but bombings of women and children are not? Is this a final solution kind of thing?

    By the way, it’s true that the Kurds may not have been with us at Normandy, but you can bet that relatives of your Fuehrer were there. Well, not with us exactly. But they were there; shooting from their emplacements, so what the hey.

  45. 545
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538
    You are a smart guy and all you talk about anymore is your political beliefs, which will not benefit anyone. Please help us out and get back to real estate. I use to love reading your comments. Please get back to that. You won!!! I’m waving the white flag. Star Jones, Rosie Odonell, you, and the Democrats are right! Now please drop this political nonsense.

  46. 546
    ruxpert says:

    Report: Amazon’s rapid expansion in Bellevue could reach 4.8M square feet and

    power ‘spectacular’ growth for Seattle suburb

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/amazons-rapid-expansion-bellevue-reach-4-8m-square-feet-power-spectacular-growth-seattle-suburb/

  47. 547
    S-Crow says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543 – If only half of that comes to fruition, it is remarkable. Traffic is bad as it is through Bellevue. I can’t imagine what it would be like adding just half the volume of people they project.

    I’m flying 3x out of Paine Field by year end. I used to get to SeaTac within 15 minutes from my old house on Capitol Hill. It takes me over a hour with semi-poor traffic going through Bellevue to SeaTac from Snohomish. Paine Field is my new SeaTac. Maybe more people will migrate into Snohomish Co. specifically due to Paine flights now going to LAX, LAS, SFO, SJC, PDX, SAN, SNA,PHX, GEG, SPS, DEN, etc.

  48. 548
    kenmorem says:

    By S-Crow @ 544:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543 – If only half of that comes to fruition, it is remarkable. Traffic is bad as it is through Bellevue. I can’t imagine what it would be like adding just half the volume of people they project.

    I’m flying 3x out of Paine Field by year end. I used to get to SeaTac within 15 minutes from my old house on Capitol Hill. It takes me over a hour with semi-poor traffic going through Bellevue to SeaTac from Snohomish. Paine Field is my new SeaTac. Maybe more people will migrate into Snohomish Co. specifically due to Paine flights now going to LAX, LAS, SFO, SJC, PDX, SAN, SNA,PHX, GEG, SPS, DEN, etc.

    my mom now flies from ORL to paine. way more convenient.

    and yes, the growth for amazon and other tech companies on the east side will be huge. we are working on projects along the light rail path (structural engineering) and it’s pretty damn apparent that this whole corridor will see a large shift. amazon is already buying up office buildings around lightrail stops, the downtown bellevue TC, etc.

    when you stand in the spring district (not yet a real district, but something created out of thin air) and look eastward, all you can do is think: damn, all this single story, low density light industrial and commercial is going to be replaced by mid rise buildings and endless tech bros.

    bellevue to redmond will one day dwarf seattle’s tech scene. and there’ll be no needles anywhere. i-605 will probably become a hot topic at some point in time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_605_(Washington)

    you think traffic on hwy 2 on the weekends sucks now? just wait.

    FWIW: i’ve studied alternatives in the issaquah area for different road improvement projects. there aren’t many good options. i-605 may be here sooner than we think. the growth projections (dubious, but still) are staggering for the eastside communities.

    me: i hope to be out of WA long before any of this ‘ish gets here. cash out the chips and forego the future bounties for sake of saving my sanity, even though i bike commute to work and traffic generally does not impact me.

  49. 549
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543

    Thanks for pointing this article out. Pretty amazing numbers.

    Given a standard figure of 200-220 SF per employee, you could see not 15,000 but 20,000-24,000 employees there. Plus Apple, plus Google, plus Facebook, plus oh yeah, all that continued growth at Microsoft, plus all the infrastructure and vendor firms, plus housing.

    I have always felt the East Side was the stodgy and sterile burbs. But now it has become the center for tremendous growth and dynamism.

    If we are lucky, Seattle will rise to the challenge and a decade from now you will see Seattle and Bellevue as the Twin Tech Cities. If not, Seattle will become that place that used to be the future and somehow became the past.

    Think the Seattle City Council has gotten the memo?

  50. 550

    RE: whatsmyname @ 541

    Interesting List for Kurds’ Motherland, almost all the Middle East Countries, hey they’re like the Palestines in Jesurselum….we need to hate our Jewish ally because someone else thinks part of their country belongs to them? I’m still suspicious of getting involved in endless Mid East wars and you didn’t give me a good reason to spend Trillions defending Kurds either. And why is our EU ally Turkey attacking them? My best guess is the new asylum laws process [Trump identified correctly for America and the world too] allow millions from Syria to seek asylum in Turkey [they share a border with Syria, allowing asylum] and you want more asylum hoards in America too? Why? Let Germany take care of the Syrian refugees, they just love them…..ask Merkel.

    Hey….I got that mess off our backs, why back any plan for anything [like real estate buying] on personal politics instead of the salient facts? You’ll lose your shirt.

    Now, gulp down your Yuban and enjoy the Brief:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, October 15, 2019
    Agustin Banda holds a cross with his wife’s photo
    Woman killed crossing Seattle street where neighbors had long pushed for a crosswalk
    Agustin Banda, above, was walking to the Lake City Community Center with his wife one morning last month when a driver hit the couple and took off. Maria Banda, 77, didn’t survive. It was at least the second traffic-related death in six months in the area, where safety has long been a concern. (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    “You want me to sell my car to pay my hospital bill?” Patients in need are supposed to receive free or discounted care at nonprofit hospitals, but many have been getting big bills instead. One hospital that’s “really gone off the deep end” in its quest for money, according to a state lawmaker: St. Joseph Medical Center in Tacoma.

    Never mind the Seattle tower that WeWork was supposed to turn into a vertical neighborhood, where communal dinners and shared fun would thaw the Seattle Freeze. Martin Selig Real Estate and the money-losing coworking startup have ditched their deal for the 36-story project.

    Upset Seattle University students and faculty are pushing back against the school’s president after he decided to remove Planned Parenthood from an online list of health-care resources. President Stephen Sundborg said he was “reflecting the central teaching of the Catholic Church regarding abortion.”

    The top 12 Democratic presidential candidates face off tonight at 5 p.m. Pacific time, after a month in which voters have been jolted repeatedly by impeachment talk and Bernie Sanders’ heart attack. Six questions loom over the debate. More:

    Here’s what Joe Biden needs to do to succeed tonight, as son Hunter Biden speaks out on his role with a Ukraine firm.
    The debate takes place in a state that has occupied a hallowed role in presidential races.
    Check back tonight for updates and analysis.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘DAMS OR SALMON’
    Celilo Falls
    For some 11,000 years, Celilo Falls was a prized salmon fishery and a cultural and economic hub. That all ended when the Oregon falls were drowned by construction of The Dalles Dam in 1957. Now Yakama and Lummi tribal leaders say three Columbia River dams must come down to restore salmon runs. The dams churn out enough electricity to power more than 2 million homes annually. (Photo: Wayne Buchanan / U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Soundgarden and Dave Matthews Band have been nominated for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. This year’s nominees were announced this morning. Soundgarden would be the third of grunge’s Big Four to enter the Hall.

    Math is fun! At least that’s what Washington students think on this Worlds Math Day. We’re tied for the top state in the nation where number-crunching is kids’ idea of a good time. In case your kid isn’t among the enthusiastic ones, here are some ways to make math less intimidating and more exciting.

    A natural-gas leak at a U District construction site forced evacuations that lasted for more than three hours yesterday. It came days after a leaking gas line ignited in North Seattle, injuring three Puget Sound Energy workers.

    Pharmacy benefit managers leverage competition among drugmakers and drugstores to save patients and payers an average of $123 per brand prescription, negotiating costs down by nearly $13.7 billion in Washington. Learn more at OnYourRxSide.org.
    WORTH A READ
    King County Metro was the nation’s top public transportation agency last year, so why are riders cranky about it? The author of “Trains, Buses, People: An Opinionated Atlas of U.S. Transit” talks about why the Seattle area scores so well and what we need to do better.

    Who can best lead Renton through the dramatic changes ahead? Voters will find sharp differences between former state Rep. Marcie Maxwell and City Councilmember Armondo Pavone, the seasoned politicians who are running for mayor.

    For empty nesters transitioning out of their houses, affordability is a big priority, before and during retirement. But that doesn’t always mean downsizing. See why these real-life homebuyers are smart-sizing instead.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Voters in Seattle District 6 — including Ballard, Fremont and Green Lake — should elect Heidi Wills, their best hope for more thoughtful, responsive City Council representation, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Soundgarden and Dave Matthews Band nominated for Rock & Roll Hall of Fame
    Lit Crawl Seattle 2019: Welcome to the roving literary party taking over Capitol Hill later this month
    So crazy: Broadway star and Bellevue native Megan Hilty never envisioned playing Patsy Cline on Lifetime

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Cloudy. High 60. Low 52. Sunrise 7:27. Sunset 6:21. ..”

    SWE’s take:

    Retiree’s need a mortgage loan refinance like a sock in the stomach….its like an endless war and you extended the interest payments for decades…sell and $CASH$ out is my advice.

    Asking advance knowledge at a hospital of how much it will cost is like asking Alfred E Neuman a complex math question…LOL

    How much is an abortion at Planned Parenthood anyway? $10K $CASH$ without Medicaid? Medicaid forks out for Opioids too…what else does Medicaid cover? Hardly nothing?

  51. 551

    RE: softwarengineer @ 547

    “Why back any plan for anything [like real estate buying] on personal politics…”

    I started in Real Estate around June 1 of 1990 and I remember the real estate office being in chaos when Desert Storm hit. Escrows were failing left and right. There were other times as well when political and world oriented events turned interest rates sharply creating chaos, especially for those who were floating their rate…this more important in Seattle than in most parts of the Country. We don’t have a rate cap in our Financing Contingencies the way other areas do, which is why more of our local buyers got sucked into subprime with almost no recourse.

    One has to keep their eye on all of the balls in play.

    As to the general picture, as long as the DOW is running this way or that of 27,000 and edging back and coming back over it…the market is still slightly up to flat. But merely watching the markets without factoring in political and world crisis events, is not optimal.

    In the Desert Storm days I would have clients apply with two lenders and lock one and float one. Harder to do that these days and almost never done. But when rates pop up briefly like they did in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, doing that deserves consideration. From contract to close was also much longer back in 1990-1991, Desert Storm days, than now. Not uncommon for that to be 90 vs 30 days. Shorter escrows with locked in rates did help.

    In the 80s the rate locked at time of application without the option to float or lock. That changed when the lenders were disadvantaged by that policy. I forget what year that was as I was running Investment Portfolios and not in real estate during that time.

  52. 552

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 548
    Great Plan Ardell

    That’s why you are my favorite realtor, you look at all the details, not just a chosen outcome that won’t happen anyway.

    When Trump wins the 2020 election, I imagine the forces for lower wages and lower real estate prices will continue by the Open Border Party to make Trump look bad , and help no one. Imagine $100/mo Blue Cross in Seattle if all employers were forced to offer “mandatory” private insurance, a political agenda both the Open Border Party and Trump [perhaps not?] won’t touch…it drives private insurance cost way down and encourages real estate prices to rise. We can still cover pre-existing conditions too. God forbid we do that….LOL

  53. 553

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 548
    The DOW Under the Trump Impeachment Inquiry

    Is still running YOY increases in the +3-9% level, that ain’t chump change compared to real estate or any other investment recently. Wages are held back by lack of skills and experience in manufacturing, space technology, automobile safety and decent transmission designs [ineffective military Buy American Act purchases in Seattle aerospace too, BTW, its on all military contracts]…..its gonna take 5-10 years to get that “on-the-job experience back from much higher priced Asia and Europe manufacturing engineers. Meanwhile we have our best lever, food. Its a good quick burst of money into real estate at all levels. The Phase I China deal proves that.

    Its tough to run on one leg [no manufacturing] with a prosthetic, but still possible with a positive plan to change the insanity in the future.

  54. 554
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543
    RE: Deerhawke @ 546

    Yeah? Layer upon layer of wishful conjecture of Amazon’s future footprint in Bellevue. The only thing that is real here is the 325k ft2 currently occupied by Amazon. Then there is a 9X extrapolation to 2.9M ft2 based on pre-application (!) building plans that are not even a real plan. Then there are leases or lease comittments that cannot easily be verified, and generic speculation. And then there is the additional 6X extrapolation of 1.9M ft2 that even Broderick Group admits is nothing but broker gossip.

    Can Broderick Group or the journalist provide a solid public source reference for all the numbers? For each lease, is this a real lease being paid now, or just a letter of intent, or a weak lease agreement with an opt out that may unravel the plan at some future date? Do tell, with solid publicly available sources, lease start dates and durations. What about the supposed “building plans”, could they not be ditched by Amazon? According to and older geekwire article, “Amazon has filed a pre-application package for the project, Sedo said, and details could change as the plans develop”. That basically means there is no comittment whatsoever from Amazon. There is not even a building application at this point.

    In summary, most of the article is a rehash of old and new wishful thinking by a CRE broker (Broderick Group) that wants to profit from brokering offices and retail space to Amazon hangers-on that might be tempted to make a move into some imagined ecosystem that might sprout around a new Amazon hub. By the way, how is such thinking working out in South Lake Union? Was it worth the gamble for all those apartment towers and ground-floor retail that speculated on continued Amazon expansion in SLU? Reports of empty luxury apartment towers abound. Was it all just a waste and a a loss?

  55. 555
    N says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/wework-landlord-scrap-deal-for-lease-of-36-story-seattle-tower

    Re: We Work – Their troubles are well documented, but they are a major player in Seattle commercial real estate having expanded or committed to 22 sites in Seattle. Is this just a troubled firm trying to stop the bleeding, or can we read something into this.

    Will someone else step in and lease this brand new 36 story tower? (Note, 23 floors were to be residential as We Live)

  56. 556
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 551
    RE: N @ 552

    N, what you wrote is very apropos to my previous posts. The lofty plans of WeWork is a great example of how property speculation that looks like a sure bet can unravel in a hurry. As Ben Jones would say, what happened to the shortage?

  57. 557
    Justme says:

    Seattletimes reports that the WeWork IPO cancellation will mean that Amazon very likely will not be able to sublease to WeWork some 400k ft2 at the Rainier Square skyscraper now under construction. So, Amazon already has more space coming online in Seattle than it knows what to do with. Does is sound like Amazon will go forth with a big expansion in Bellevue, or might they just have gotten a bit of a cold shower?

    QUOTE:

    “And as WeWork is rocked by turmoil, the company has put on the back burner any new leases, meaning hundreds of thousands of square feet it was considering in Seattle could be up for grabs. WeWork, already one of the Seattle area’s largest office landlords, previously planned to scale up further by subleasing from Amazon close to 400,000 square feet at the Rainier Square skyscraper now under construction. The slowdown throws that deal into question. So far, the company hasn’t inked a contract on the space.”

    Reference: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/beleaguered-wework-and-martin-selig-dissolve-deal-for-residential-project-in-belltown/

    PS: Did y’all notice how the sublease to WeWork has previously been publicized as a done deal, but now suddenly is described as “So far, the company hasn’t inked a contract on the space.” Sounds like another phantom lease that never really existed. How many of all the other publicized lease deals in Seattle are all talk and no substance?

  58. 558
    Eastsider says:

    From past experience, there will be a flood of CRE office space for lease in the next recession. The $64 million question is the timing of recession. (Not sure how many here remember the huge holes in downtown Bellevue after the Great Recession. It was not supposed to happen that way!)

  59. 559
  60. 560
    Snp says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 559

    Yet all of those employees currently live in the Bellevue/Seattle area, it’s not like it is a net positive for 4500 jobs. Going from Bellevue to Seattle is nothing. Though I would not want that commute for anything.

  61. 561
    ruxpert says:

    Perhaps the new incoming BellevueAmazon employees will buy the houses of the Expedia employees moving from Bellevue to Seattle?

  62. 562
    ruxpert says:

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  63. 563
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 557 – Suppose Amazon does cut back on their Bellevue growth in order to channel that growth into Seattle. It’s really all one market, so how does that reallocation help your cause? I would think a more direct connection to your concerns would lie in the 23 floors of expected downtown residential space that appears not to be happening after all. Expectations, as someone here was saying, can unravel in a hurry.

  64. 564
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 562

    Is NODE your company product?

  65. 565
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 550:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 541

    Interesting List for Kurds’ Motherland, almost all the Middle East Countries, hey they’re like the Palestines in Jesurselum….we need to hate our Jewish ally because someone else thinks part of their country belongs to them? I’m still suspicious of getting involved in endless Mid East wars and you didn’t give me a good reason to spend Trillions defending Kurds either. And why is our EU ally Turkey attacking them? My best guess is the new asylum laws process [Trump identified correctly for America and the world too] allow millions from Syria to seek asylum in Turkey [they share a border with Syria, allowing asylum] and you want more asylum hoards in America too? Why? Let Germany take care of the Syrian refugees, they just love them…..ask Merkel.

    No one suggested we should hate our Jewish ally. This has nothing to do with them, although the Kurds have done more to eliminate ISIS fighters.
    No one has suggested endless involvement or trillions of dollars.
    You are dead wrong on the Turkish Kurdish problem which is not generated from asylum.
    Neither I, not Germany hope for hoards of Syrian refugees.

    In the time you used to claw the above from your posterior, you could have checked Wikipedia to get some tiny bit of actual information to move forward on. This is America, and we have the right to be as shallow, ignorant, and bigoted as we wish. I am sure the President appreciates beyond measure your vigilance and dedication to your rights.

  66. 566
    Justme says:

    Hah. The same crowd of bubble-mongers that were crowing about Bellevue jobs are now saying these jobs do not matter.

    Aren’t these people just precious in their propaganda?

  67. 567
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 566 – It’s job growth. It’s not that the jobs don’t matter. What doesn’t matter to most of us is whether they are in Seattle or Bellevue. You, on the other hand seem to be claiming that job growth doesn’t matter if the jobs wind up in Seattle. Now that’s propaganda.

  68. 568

    RE: whatsmyname @ 565
    Ya Did a Reset Then

    Before the 2016 you were batting Trump on the head for asylum immigration bans [9th District Courts] reversed by the Supreme Court. Syrian Refugees. BTW, why did Turkey [our ally] attack Syria Kurds [our Ally] anyway? Just because or to stop the asylum hoards of Kurds crossing their border [they need a WALL too]? Its a key fact and you don’t know do you, so why is my opinion automatically wrong when it seems to fit like a puzzle piece?

    Thanks for your opinion though, all thought leads to cause. Pence and Pompao are heading to Turkey for answers, we’ll know more later. Germany and the EU may have BREXIT voters against uncontrolled immigration asylum, even the majority of EU voters; but they oppose the Populists with Deep State globalism Fascism and uncontrolled OVERPOPULATION of the EU, IMO.

  69. 569
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 567

    So we can agree that the jobs are not happening in Seattle and barely happening in Bellevue, so far?

    Phantom jobs and phantom leases, they can cause prices to rise if people believe the propaganda. Don’t fall for the propaganda.

  70. 570
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 567

    For those of us in the business who work in Seattle, the fact that the jobs are going to Bellevue does matter. But really this is just politics in action. The Seattle City Council has been openly hostile to Amazon and blames the city’s problems on the tech companies bringing jobs and energy to Seattle. They show an unbelievable level of entitled ignorance.

    I think over time you will find that Bellevue/East Side median sale numbers will go up while Seattle will go mainly sideways or rise just a bit over time. The obvious reason is that the new tech jobs are increasingly going to the East Side. But the other reason is that you are going to be getting a different composition of sales over time.

    In Seattle, you will see more townhouses for a while yet as the current pre-tax mini-glut is absorbed at lower prices. But you will also see fewer new homes being built in Seattle in the next year. The city council put in its new townhouse tax as well as the so-called “McMansion law” . After the housing that is currently in the pipeline, if you see new townhouses they will be smaller and especially narrower. No parking of course. And true SF houses will also be smaller (2500 sf max) and therefore cost the same or less — although they may cost much more on a $/sf basis. Most of the Seattle builders I know are going to work through their existing permitted inventory and then head across 90 and 520 to build there.

    So the Seattle median sales numbers will drop because of the change in composition of sales. Short of a nasty recession, we will see prices that continue to rise. Inventory is back to its 2012-2014 reset level.
    And yet more people continue to arrive in the area. Not at the same pace as 2015-2017, but they are still coming here for the lifestyle and the jobs.

    Some will want to live in Seattle while more will choose Bellevue and Kirkland. Demographics plays a role too. As more of the millenials have families and kids,  they will look at space, school choice, etc and choose the East Side.

    But do not for a minute believe that the Seattle house you have been hoping to buy will drop in price.

    I have friends looking for a home in a central Seattle neighborhood– ideally Wallingford, Phinney or Greenlake. They were convinced that prices would drop when they started to look seriously in January. But after nine months of looking, their agent informed them they would need to either change their expectations or their price range. The odd/old housing sits longer and gets bid down a bit. The nicer/remodeled inventory on a full size lot still gets multiple offers. Prices are down a bit from 2017 and early 2018, but up for 2019.

  71. 571
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 569

    “So we can agree that the jobs are not happening in Seattle and barely happening in Bellevue, so far?”

    Umm… no. We can agree that :
    – the number of jobs coming to Seattle is down from 2015-2017 but is still the envy of most other major cities in the US, and

    – the number of jobs coming to Bellevue is going to explode along the lines of 2015-2017 in Seattle, but

    – they are all jobs coming to the Puget Sound area that will affect real estate throughout the entire region, from Tacoma to Everett

  72. 572
    kenmorem says:

    By Deerhawke @ 571:

    RE: Justme @ 569
    – they are all jobs coming to the Puget Sound area that will affect real estate throughout the entire region, from Tacoma to Everett

    correction: olympia to mt vernon will more likely be the swath of growth once tacoma becomes too $$$ and the marysville crowd gets tired of the southbound commute and jobs start moving north.

  73. 573
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 572
    You ever drive from everett to renton? during rush hours, it easily takes 1 to 2 hrs depend if some idiot driver rear end other. mt vernon to olympic? you can fly to sf in same time. the whole seattle bubble is traffic to the end. we have water on the west and mountain on the east. you want save time, you’d better pay more to live close to seattle.

  74. 574

    RE: Deerhawke @ 570

    Being from Philadelphia and knowing most East Coast major cities, it surprised me that Seattle didn’t always have lots and lots of attached housing. Single family homes as the norm anywhere near a downtown and no rowhomes in the burbs at all is pretty much an oddity. Any major city with lots of jobs and population has had tons of attached rowhouses for over 100 years. I think Seattle is just catching up and the problem is transportation, not housing. People on the East Coast don’t consider a bus vs a train (Amtrak or EL – evated) or high speed line (from NJ) into the City to be a practical option.

    It was easier for me to get around in the 60’s where I’m from that in it is around here in 2019.

    Seattle is spoiled as to single family homes in-City and will just have to get over their aversion to attached housing. That this area doesn’t have older attached housing is the main reason why affordability is a problem. You can still get a rowhouse in Philly for a ridiculously low price and take a train or the EL into Downtown or most any workplace. Same is true for most Major Cities. Seattle just has to adjust to being a major City workplace and stop turning their noses up at attached housing.

  75. 575
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 568:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 565
    Ya Did a Reset Then

    Before the 2016 you were batting Trump on the head for asylum immigration bans [9th District Courts] reversed by the Supreme Court. Syrian Refugees. BTW, why did Turkey [our ally] attack Syria Kurds [our Ally] anyway? Just because or to stop the asylum hoards of Kurds crossing their border [they need a WALL too]? Its a key fact and you don’t know do you, so why is my opinion automatically wrong when it seems to fit like a puzzle piece?

    Thanks for your opinion though, all thought leads to cause. Pence and Pompao are heading to Turkey for answers, we’ll know more later. Germany and the EU may have BREXIT voters against uncontrolled immigration asylum, even the majority of EU voters; but they oppose the Populists with Deep State globalism Fascism and uncontrolled OVERPOPULATION of the EU, IMO.

    About 18% of people in Turkey are Kurds; not because they came there in hoards, but because they were already there when the allies allowed Turkey’s boarders to encompass them. Why does Turkey hate them? Because they are not Turks. Because they have resisted the outlawing of their language, clothes, and music. Because they keep trying for autonomy, and their own state. Because the Syrian Kurds might have established a de facto state. If the French had a Trump in 1776, we might not be a country today.

    It’s no big deal if a Turkish killing machine crosses Syria’s borders; it’s not our border. It’s just like when Russians attack our election system. Oh wait, that is in our border, but it’s still OK. What’s bad is when civilians running for their lives cross borders. Maybe the Turks can help us shoot em in the legs. I hear they’re pretty good at that. MAGA.

    Any chance we can get back to real estate and the financial prowess of investing in a trailer park home?

  76. 576
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 571

    All that solid data about jobs really blew me away.

  77. 577

    RE: softwarengineer @ 568

    Dragging you back to real estate. :) I don’t usually post my listings here but my retina detached just before I started staging this. I postponed the surgery to early tomorrow morning so I could get this staged and online first. I need some immediate today feedback if anyone sees any needed changes before they insert an air bubble into my eye at 6:30 a.m. tomorrow morning. :)

    https://www.estately.com/listings/info/1725-290th-ave-ne–1#!

    Any feedback appreciated, especially on the photos as my one good eye was wearing out after 4 hours of photo editing late yesterday.

  78. 578

    Time to Stop Worrying About Real Estate In Seattle

    We all know the prices are way too high to plan dinky average per capita pay into. An impossible if not bad investment.

    Why is solving the problem bad and condemning voices that want to do nothing because their politics thinks its hurting Trump if we lower real estate prices….LOL….sounds like an impasse to me.

    Another irritant I have is politics making a lion’s share of us hate each other, when did this happen? IMO, we’re going to Hades in hen basket on this path. Welcome to America, where we can pray for lawlessness, but not allow hope? LOL, Yes, people are leaving Seattle because they hate this hypocritical Fascism against free speech in Seattle, many Bubble bloggers have said this too. They’re sick of our high taxes and hypocrisy to truth. They’re fleeing California over the high taxes and thin skinned “snowflake” attitude too. But I’m a devil bringing this up with halos and angel wings anyway? I’m going to party with the Millennials, they agree with me.

    Meanwhile, I’m off to Toastmasters at 12PM today at the Kent City Hall Millenial Bldg, floor 4. We have the same problem of mixing oil and water politics in our speech topics, its normal in almost all topics, not an alleged abnormal communications in real estate as exception. We address this conflict and laugh about it and we’re all happy to just agree to disagree…do I care if I sell to a dem or rep, Hades no, whoever qualifies and pays the contract. Join me, your day will be much better, I guarantee it.

  79. 579
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 577

    I think the listing looks solid Ardell. Most agents don’t show this kind of dedication. I hope all goes well with your surgery.

  80. 580

    The Rain Must Be Making the Bubbleheads Thin Skinned Lately?

    Time to chill out and pour yourself a Yuban and read the brief:

    “….The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, October 17, 2019
    Nechirvan Zebari works at his family’s bakery
    Chaos in Syria hangs heavy over Western Washington’s Kurds
    For Nechirvan Zebari, “the worst feeling is of helplessness” as he works at Alida’s, his family’s Kurdish bakery in Everett. His family is riveted to the news unfolding 6,500 miles away, after U.S. troops withdrew from Kurdish-held northeastern Syria and the Turkish army swept in with full force. Vice President Mike Pence jetted to Turkey today to urge a cease-fire, a day after an explosive meeting on Syria sent Democrats storming out of the White House. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    The Great Washington Shakeout happens today at 10:17 a.m. Millions of people around the world will take part in earthquake drills, and emergency-management experts are spreading the word about quick actions to take when The Big One hits. If it happened today, would you be ready to rumble? Get set up with our earthquake-preparedness tips.

    A Seattle hotelier who is central to the impeachment inquiry is distancing himself from President Donald Trump as he testifies today. Check back for updates on what U.S. Ambassador Gordon Sondland is telling House investigators. Here’s how the Mercer Island native landed in the middle of this mess. At the same time, taxpayers are funding a lavish renovation of Sondland’s home that’s raising eyebrows.

    In less than three weeks, Washington voters will decide on two statewide ballot measures, a constitutional amendment and dozens of local ballot issues and races. We’ve pulled together a guide to help you brush up on the candidates and the issues. And here are a few fresh election stories:

    Seattle City Council: Incumbent Debora Juarez and challenger Ann Davison Sattler are deeply divided over how to tackle homelessness.
    Seattle schools: Board President Leslie Harris has lost the support of the teachers union, which is throwing its weight behind Molly Mitchell.

    Obituary: Rep. Elijah Cummings, a sharecropper’s son who rose to become the powerful chairman of a U.S. House committee that’s investigating President Donald Trump, died today. The Maryland congressman, 68, had long battled health problems.
    TWO DAYS ONLY!
    Local news creates change. So does your subscription. Get unlimited digital access for over 90% off our usual rate during our Fall Sale.
    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    Bernie Morris
    Bernie Morris was a driving force when the Seattle Metropolitans won the Stanley Cup, but his fortunes changed quickly. Just two years later, he was convicted of Army desertion and sent to Alcatraz, possibly costing Seattle another title. Now there’s a push afoot to get him into the Hockey Hall of Fame. Can you guess when Morris and the Metropolitans ruled? Check your answer and learn about hockey’s heyday in Seattle. (Photo: David Eskenazi Collection)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Nearly 14 million Americans could have Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia by 2060. At a free conference today in Seattle, the Alzheimer’s Foundation aims to tell patients and caregivers how the latest research can help them. Here are some of the group’s tips on keeping your brain healthy.

    An apartment building rising on a rundown site in Pioneer Square marks a milestone. It’s Seattle’s first opportunity zone development, part of a program designed to help poor communities by offering tax breaks for investors. But the system is raising alarm among those who worry about gentrification. Here’s how it works and what the new Canton Lofts will look like.

    A brand-new charter school in Kent has abruptly shut down. Ashé Preparatory Academy is the fourth Washington charter school to close in the past year.

    “It’s one of those games you grow up wanting to be a part of.” Huskies are talking about the immensity of Saturday’s matchup with Oregon. UW’s slim Pac-12 title hopes hang precariously in the balance, and Oregon must win in Husky Stadium to remain in College Football Playoff contention.
    Provided by Providence St. Joseph Health
    Homelessness is not one size fits all, and neither is the solution. Stable, long-term supportive housing is part of the solution, but for the immediate need of getting people off the street, it helps to think in medical terms, like triage.
    WORTH A READ
    Washington shellfish growers are on edge after a judge threw out a federal permit for the industry, saying it doesn’t do enough to protect the environment. What happens now? Growers are hoping they can keep operating while that question gets answered.

    Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says he’ll “always be there” for Earl Thomas, despite the lasting image of Thomas’ middle-finger gesture toward him. Things could get interesting when Thomas returns to Seattle on Sunday in Baltimore Ravens colors.

    Want to escape reality for a bit? “Zombieland: Double Tap” is the perfect October movie, a sequel without equal that has plenty of snark. And there are pleasures to be had in the perfectly cast “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.”

    Imagine being inside Minecraft, with phantoms flying overhead, chickens underfoot and a 30-foot Ender Dragon looming. Welcome to the immersive new Minecraft exhibit that opens Saturday at Seattle’s MoPOP.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Psychotherapists hear what really matters to people, says Seattle-based therapist Rhoda Keladry. She works with teens and their families and says what a lot of people don’t realize is clients have an impact on their counselor, too.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The Seattle Times editorial board weighs in on two Redmond City Council races. Councilmember Hank Margeson has represented citizens well on the council and the city well on regional boards, and should be returned to Position 3. For Position 1, the board recommends reelecting Hank Myers, because every governing board needs a devil’s advocate, and Myers is that candidate.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘Maleficent: Mistress of Evil’ review: Perfectly cast Angelina Jolie, Michelle Pfeiffer lock horns too briefly
    Seattle’s MoPOP builds large Minecraft exhibit, marking the hit video game’s 10th anniversary
    You recommended your favorite crime fiction. Here’s our take on some of them. | The Plot Thickens

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 56. Low 48. Sunrise 7:30. Sunset 6:17.

    SWE’s Take

    Some good both sides non-partisan journalism this morning, both sides, good job Seattle Times :-)

    Seattle Times failed to mention the Open Border Party impeachment hearings were closed doors to the Populists…that is a BIG omission in my book. It ain’t a legal hearing without both sides present [close door hearings with just the Open Border Party present] and its a dead end waste of time as a result too. This whole impeachment mess with no Constitution Laws governing it means one thing, Trump’s gonna win in 2020, most all see through this charade like glass. Do they think were all buffoons?

  81. 581
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 576

    Just re-stating the obvious for those who easily fall for the Jedi mind trick of repeating nonsense in the hope that people will think it is true.

    If you have real data from a real source without a lot of blather overlayed on top, let’s see it.

    Gene Balk’s piece is not new, but indicative of current trends. Seattle still ranks #2 in national growth. People are following the jobs.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/big-city-growth-slows-across-u-s-but-seattle-still-ranks-no-2-in-2018/

  82. 582

    RE: Deerhawke @ 579

    Thank you Deerhawke. I put a review date on it of the 23rd. I’m supposed to lay flat on my face for 1 day and on my left side for 2 days to keep the air bubble pressing in the direction they want to push the retina back on to my eyeball. :) I think I can likely read my email and talk on the phone if needed. But keeping my head sideways while typing may be a challenge. We’ll see! I’m optimistic. I have backup if needed. We already have a showing request.

  83. 583
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 582

    I wish good health to Ardell and lower house prices for everyone.

  84. 584
    Justme says:

    Net domestic migration to King County (Seattle + suburbs) in 2017 was 458 persons

    Keep that number 458 in mind, and go back and read all the lofty projections of purported population increases, jobs increases, and housing demand you saw in the media in 2016 or 2017. Then compare with reality as provided by the census ACS survey numbers. Then apply a very large amount of skepticism to any and all reports that present lofty projections for 2019 and beyond.

    Reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NETMIGNACS053033

  85. 585
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 581:

    Gene Balk’s piece is not new, but indicative of current trends. Seattle still ranks #2 in national growth. People are following the jobs.

    Just want to say that Seattle population is less than 1/10th the size of the largest city, New York. From 2010 census to 2019, Austin population gains 210,000 compared to Seattle’s 158,000. In fact, all major Texas cities have witnessed tremendous growth, Houston (+260,000), San Antonio (+239,000), Dallas (+182,000), Forth Worth (+173,000) all gain more population than Seattle in the past decade.

    Perhaps Seattle is not that special after all, especially if you take into account housing affordability. And I suspect its future growth will diminish markedly.

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/

  86. 586
  87. 587
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    If 1000 people with money and high paying jobs move here, and 1000 people with less money and less jobs leave, net migration is 0, but housing prices still go up… right?

  88. 588
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 587 – That 1000 wealthy people will improve the housing stock through remodeling and teardowns. So yes, over time, average prices will go up due to nicer homes. Otherwise, if demand = supply, prices are not going anywhere – Econ 101.

  89. 589
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 585

    I already debunked Gene Balk’s errant article (see below). But of course, that does no prevent Deerhawke from reposting the drivel. Below is what I say in the very comment section of the very article that Deerhawke linked. It is just layers upon layers of data misinterpretation and bullshit propaganda being posted and reposted by the same bubble-mongers, over and over again.

    ——————————————————

    justbubble
    4 months ago
    Meanwhile, the bubble-blowing class of real-estate profiteers is busy mis-characterizing the population increase as “15,000 people moved to Seattle”.

    Nope, that did not happen. 15,000 was the population increase (netmigration+births-deaths). I say this with some confidence because the article says the numbers were based on US Census data, which generally does look at the whole picture and not just migration.

    I am still waiting for SeattleTimes to post a proper link to their data source, which I could not find, but meanwhile it can be pointed out that the net migration to King County (Seattle and suburbs) was ** 5932 ** persons in 2016. No numbers available for Seattle City proper AFAIK.

    justbubble
    4 months ago
    In addition to the fact that the numbers are being propaganda-ized by the bubble-blowers and housing-inflation mongers, there is also the problem that these particular 2018 population estimates, even from the US Census Bureau, are not based on a proper survey. I always thought that US Census only used survey-based numbers (Census or ACS), but it turns out that for 2018 they have estimated population as HU * OR, where HU is HousingUnits (from 2018) and OR is OccupationRate (from 2010).

    This is the same highly inaccurate method that Washington OFM uses. The city and county keep track of all new HU being built and torn down, so that number is quite accurate, but they have no way of knowing an accurate OR. We know there are lots of empty new apartments and condos in Seattle and King County. But said 2018 population estimate assumes these housing units are full! Very inaccurate.

    By the way, here is a link that goes directly to the data. Also on that page are links to the methodology documentation.

    https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2018/PEPANNRES/1620000US5363000

  90. 590
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    >> Net domestic migration to King County (Seattle + suburbs) in 2017 was 458 persons

    It’ so quiet around here I think I can hear the moss growing.

  91. 591
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 590
    High paid jobs are moving in and low income people are moving to Tacoma where they belong.

  92. 592

    RE: Deerhawke @ 579
    Yes Deerhawke

    My prayer just went out for Ardelle’s eye too….hope it helps…

    Your eyes are irreplaceable and its “Game Over” if ya go blind. I hear vitamin C and E mixed together prevents Cataracts, CBD prevents and cures Glaucoma. The vitamin C (1000 mg) and vitamin E (400 IU) mixture is great for curing stress too [it deceases radicals in the blood], try it after a stressful day if you don’t believe me. I read it about in a Repairman Jack novel by J Paul…holistic cures do work.

    Hey…Toastmasters taught me a real estate math formula today on price predictions for 2020:

    B= I/(1-R), i.e., the break even formula for RE investing, where B= Break Even rate of Return, I= inflation and R= Effective Tax Rate [all taxes]…..the bottom line, if politics doesn’t affect/drive this formula I’m a buffoon…LOL….politics is driving federal/local tax rates and COLA is driven by wage increases, politics IOWs…..LOL

    SWE is off topic? How about dead on topic. Let’s hope for high wages and low taxes, our homes’ future value depends on it.

    Hey Bubbleheads, ya got a good real estate topics for a Toastmasters speech?, I can share the evaluation on the blog later.

  93. 593
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 588:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 587 – That 1000 wealthy people will improve the housing stock through remodeling and teardowns. So yes, over time, average prices will go up due to nicer homes. Otherwise, if demand = supply, prices are not going anywhere – Econ 101.

    The 1000 incoming wealthy people will likely increase demand on for-sale houses as is; while the 1,000 not so wealthy departees will likely decrease demand on rentals. Imperfect substitution was an assumption of the problem. Still Econ 101.

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