NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,415 comments:

  1. 501
    formerSeattleite says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-governor-signs-statewide-rent-control-law-2019-10-08?mod=MW_home_top_stories

    So, is there a general consensus of how this affects real estate prices? Will this cause home prices to sky rocket, stay the same, or go down as a direct result of this?

  2. 502
    Justme says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 499 – \

    LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.

    From reference:

    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.

    3. (Usage Problem) To indicate indirectly; imply.

  3. 503
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Oh, I see. Uwp is hoping for higher prices so that he can buy house #2 at a higher price. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. NOT! Why is his search just “warming up”? The prices had fallen too much from the May 2018 peak, and you felt like it would be to cheap to buy one?

    >>this could be the last good chance to score our “move-up” house.

    Jeez, when was the previous good chance, one might ask? Why did you not buy then?

    Conclusion: Uwp is talking nonsense, but for a reason: He wants YOU to bid up the price on his already overpriced house. He’s not going to buy another one at peak levels. If he claims to do so, he should prove it.

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername. You two are the tag-team of bubble-mongering propaganda illogic. Nobody should follow the advice of these clowns.

    PS: How is your famed “helping the millenials get a house” project going?

  4. 504

    The California Rent Control is a 5% CAP Plus Inflation

    What effect will this have on Seattle home prices? I see little or no change now. But if the CAP came to Seattle I’m sure it will dampen landlord clout and and buying frenzy in low vacancy areas with high rent and property tax increases. Older “money pit” neighborhoods needing “continuous museum home type”remodeling and large rent increases to pay for it will feel the sucker punch too IMO.

    Take off your winter parka, put the ice scraper in the glove compartment, you’ve arrived through the 35 degree morning fog to your offices for a cup of Yuban: BTW, Yuban is $6.88 for the 38 ounce Jumbo Sized can at WINCO…LOL…time to scan the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, October 9, 2019
    Asa Palagi, 25, and Patricia Palagi, 81
    The divide between new and old Seattle is more complicated than it seems
    Patricia Palagi, 81, is a Seattle transplant who has voted for socialist City Councilmember Kshama Sawant. Her grandson, Asa Palagi, 25, says he’s “the opposite of grandma,” but they enjoy talking about the issues together. These two voters illustrate how the “new Seattle” and “old Seattle” stereotypes skip over key perspectives that will matter in the Nov. 5 election. And here’s where you can compare City Council candidates and watch them debate. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Severe wildfire danger has millions of Californians in the dark. A major utility this morning began shutting down power to parts of 34 counties to reduce the worst fire risks the state has seen. Schools are closed and major cities are affected, including Oakland, San Jose and Berkeley. In some places, outages could last several days. Here’s a Q&A on the effects.

    On your ballot: Opponents of Tim Eyman’s car-tab Initiative 976 are focusing on how its cuts would hit roads, bridges and buses. Getting less attention: the billions of dollars Sound Transit could lose, a close look at the initiative shows. Meanwhile, a Seattle foundation has given big bucks to the campaign for Referendum 88, which would reinstate affirmative action.

    Snow, snow, snow … It fell in heaps overnight on Stevens and Snoqualmie passes, and broke a 38-year-old record as it downed power lines in Spokane. In Western Washington, we have some chilly nights ahead.

    The White House has declared a halt to any cooperation with the impeachment probe. This sets up a constitutional clash that could have sweeping consequences, and the Constitution didn’t exactly come with an instruction manual on impeachment. Here’s what it says about who can do what. (By the way, the folks who are calling impeachment proceedings a “kangaroo court” presided over by a “malicious Captain Kangaroo” have gotten their phrasing all mixed up.)
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SEATTLE SKETCHER
    Sketch of Monorail Espresso
    Check out one of Seattle’s tiniest and cutest coffeehouses, located in a grand downtown building. There’s a story behind the name of the company, which has plans to grow. (Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)

    Russell Wilson’s numbers are so fun to think about these days. Five standout stats reveal plenty about Wilson and the Hawks so far. While we’re counting, here are five things to know about the Seahawks’ next opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, ex-Hawk Richard Sherman has a weird feud going with the Browns’ quarterback.

    The man who brought us the insanely popular Halo franchise has a new project. Harold Ryan’s ProbablyMonsters is out to disrupt the game industry.

    A strange, compelling theater production has Christians confronting damnation — with a twist. Dropping the performance into actual churches around Seattle has a disorienting effect.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods turned $5 million worth of guns into scrap metal after 17 people were gunned down at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Chief Executive Ed Stack is talking about how a “need to stand up and say something” drove a decision that cost his company a quarter of a billion dollars.
    Provided by Sound Pain Solutions
    Numb feet. Sharp pain in the hands. A fuzzy feeling in the extremities. Neuropathy can cause extreme sensitivity to the touch. Despite claims that there’s nothing you can do about it, these newly approved therapies offer relief.
    WORTH A READ
    Double whammy for Boeing: American Airlines has pushed out the return of its 737 MAX jets until January while it waits out delays in Boeing submitting its final software fixes to the FAA. And Russian carrier Aeroflot has canceled its order for 22 Dreamliners, which is cause for concern in Everett.

    Turkish troops today began invading Syria after President Donald Trump’s move to pull American troops out unleashed a flood of criticism. Trump this morning defended his decision to step back from Syrian Kurds, longtime U.S. allies. Here’s a look at who’s involved in this conflict and what they want.

    A high school is a “slave ship”? The racial imbalances in Seattle’s gifted program should be addressed, but zapping the program entirely “seems both knee-jerk and self-defeating,” columnist Danny Westneat writes. He has some different ideas on what should happen.

    Dreaming of the weekend: How about starting your Saturday with pumpkin pancakes, or perhaps wandering in a sea of red and gold leaves? This weekend’s top happenings include fall fests in Carnation and at the Seattle Japanese Garden.

    A winery with a pie-focused menu … oh my. Elsom Cellars in Sodo has been drawing customers in with delectable pairings and its intriguing Adventure Pie. And if you’ve never had a momo, you might want to try the juicy little flavor-bomb dumplings, which can be found in Lake Forest Park. (Is it lunchtime yet?)
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Being on “Jeopardy!” is like a job interview. Seattle writer Amy Swanson King appeared on the show last summer, and says it prepared her for interviews in the real-world workplace – and making up words like “herbivoregon.”
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Renton voters should elect attorney Kim-Khahn Van to City Council Position 7, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. As a first-generation immigrant from Vietnam, Van can be a strong voice to develop Renton’s sense of inclusion. And Ryan McIrvin deserves to be re-elected to Position 4 in November. He has emerged as an effective voice for meeting the city’s housing and transportation needs.

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Sunny, but brrrrrr! High 52. Low 36. Sunrise 7:19. Sunset 6:33.

    SWE’s Take:

    BTW, “whistle blowers” uncovering Boeing Plane defects are not a legal reason to attack Boeing without additional backup evidence from a known source and a clear match to root “safety” cause with Boeing defense presenting its case too….its kangaroo court evidence as an unknown source, not real until clarified with details and backup by both Defendant and Prosecutor. Same with impeachment, ask any attorney.

    I thought the Kurds were in Iraq, not Syria? Wherever the Hades they are, let’s take care of the gun violence and mental illness that causes it America First…then get monetary help from the EU before we get stuck with their Syria police bills…solving their refugee OVERPOPULATION after we solve our own is all we can afford. The war monger Never Trumper GOP disagrees with me, but I’d think the liberals would love less war mongering in endless wars…I guess not?

    Hey my home went up 3% for 2020 property taxes assessments, that’s $500/mo folks, that should cover the “museum piece home maintenance” per year and still leave you with no elbow room for property tax increases and rent CAPs…LOL…pity the landlord in 1920 areas of Seattle. But still, the 3% increase is better than a kick in the pants, and I’m the low tier price group that’s still going up and mine was built in 1991…LOL

  5. 505

    Time to Log Off for About an Hour and Pretend You’re Busy Anyway

    MSFT just announced on my laptop with business S/W I have more endless patches to install, now its twice a week? What’s in those patches anyway? Doorways to infect MALWARE into your laptops? LOL

    MSFT always lends a helping hand for work productivity…..not…

  6. 506
    richard says:

    By Justme @ 503:

    RE: uwp @ 500

    Uwp, you are as illogical as your bubble-wife Whatshername.

    haha

  7. 507
    Sfrz says:

    @theTim congrats on your Shiba puppy! A great addition to the family.

  8. 508
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 502:

    “LOL. Your usage of infer was also called out at freedictionary.com as a “usage problem”. You have an ongoing problem with applying flowery language and incorrect phrases, trying to sound important. That’s my inference.”

    My usage is the first definition that I mentioned – “To involve by logical necessity; entail: ‘Socrates argued that a statue inferred the existence of a sculptor ‘”. My statement parallels in that we logically conclude that if you remove a lot of high end sales, the median (midpoint in the range) will shift down without any price reductions. This is not a hint, nor is it indirect. You ignored this entirely.

    I anticipated you were caught in some OCD obsession with “imply”, so I handed you part of the source statement regarding common usage, and the fact that it is accepted, understood, even put into the definition when transitive. Not preferred is not the same as not correct, Mr. Pot. Implication was that if you hadn’t already been wrong of the first point; you would be wrong on this one.

    Also, I wouldn’t expect anyone to find my vocabulary impressive, complicated or important sounding, (present company excluded). I think you’ve got a problem with projection. Do you feel important nitpicking English on a real estate blog? Is this compensation for being dead wrong on the real estate part? Guess what: you’re dead wrong here too.

    “From reference:
    Infer
    Not to be confused with:
    imply – signify or mean; to suggest: Her words imply a lack of caring.”

    My reference is pretty extensive in the contrast, but basically it comes down to deduction and conclusion vs suggestion and indirectness. This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted. I think it’s placement in your message is simple dishonesty. It’s almost like we’re talking real estate.

  9. 509
    Any says:

    Bay Area prices still falling despite the crazy low unemployment and crazy low rates. What happens when either or both start to normalize?

    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Home-Prices-See-Gradual-Drop-562226991.html

    Anecdotally, I noticed recently while looking at Bay Area sales that a seemingly large % of the pending sales are contingent. Obviously that’s night and day different to what you would have seen a few years ago, so what does it mean? Obviously buyers have less liquidity, fewer cash buyers. But what else?

  10. 510
    richard says:

    very good talk about housing market, must see
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c

  11. 511
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 509
    Ha! You are 5 years behind

  12. 512

    When Moisture Clouds Meet This 32 Degree Morning Ice

    Its too early to install the studded tires and chains, you will need gloves [ski mask too?] and a heavy winter coat this morning, snow accumulation next week? So give up and gulp down a Yuban while reading the:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    hursday, October 10, 2019

    A man who tried to kidnap his ex-girlfriend led officers on a high-speed chase from Bellevue to Renton and Seattle yesterday, police say. Video shows how the chase ended with a terrifying experience for the driver of a minivan he tried to carjack.

    A “great deal of rot” caused the collapse of 26 Seattle City Light poles in Tukwila in April, an outside investigation has concluded. The collapse, captured on video, crushed a car and sent two people to the hospital. Seattle City Light says it’s trying to make changes quickly.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    “We couldn’t breathe … the aircraft snapped into a rapid roll.” A new book by the captain who landed Southwest Airlines’ only fatal flight describes how close the Boeing 737 came to complete disaster when debris tore apart an engine last year. One passenger died after she was nearly sucked out of a window. Meanwhile, more than 5% of older 737 jets that recently underwent urgent inspections will be grounded after cracks were found in what’s known as the “pickle fork.”

    Keep your fuzzy hat handy, because Seattle-area residents will be shivering a bit longer before we return to “unsettled” weather. But clear skies mean a chance to see the Draconid meteor shower tonight. Meanwhile, Spokane is digging out from the surprise snowstorm that cut power to more than 30,000 homes.

    A homeless woman’s $1 trailer touched off a storm in West Seattle. Briar Rose Williams bought it and parked it — in front of the home of a Seattle city council member, coincidentally. That touched off a frenzy of speculation about whether it was an activist’s political stunt, and Williams returned to find a vandalized mess.

    About 1.3 million school kids are homeless in the U.S., a 70% increase in the last decade. Students struggle to learn when basic needs aren’t met. Here’s the impact on Seattle public school students and what’s being done to help.
    WORTH A READ
    Frustrations are erupting in a darkened California, with angry residents sounding off and police reporting that a bullet was fired at a Pacific Gas & Electric Co. vehicle amid the state’s biggest planned power outage ever. Wineries are in the dark at a crucial time: harvest. And the outage, meant to prevent wildfires, means problems for electric-car owners.

    Flash bangs and a gunshot rang out in a Federal Way store parking lot yesterday as a SWAT team cornered a suspect in the killing of a high-school student. Another suspect was arrested without incident in the death of Juan Carlos Con Guzman, 16, whose body was found in the Green River last month.

    Any home built before 1978 is presumed to contain lead, a toxic metal widely used in paint, pipes and finishes prior to a national ban. Ingested or breathed in, lead harms the brain, kidneys and other organs. Here are homeowners’ options.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    A partnership between Microsoft and the King County Housing Authority shows the sort of creativity and partnership that’s needed as the region works to address its shortage of affordable housing, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What the hell? Christians debate damnation in the play ‘The Christians,’ performed in Seattle churches.
    Now streaming: ‘Toy Story 4,’ ‘El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie,’ ‘Little Monsters’
    Enjoy the colors and activities of fall at festivals in Carnation and the Seattle Japanese Garden

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Don’t be fooled by the sunshine. High 58. Low 39. Sunrise 7:20. Sunset 6:31.

    SWE’s take:

    The Chinese buffets are the best buy, but the sliced beef roasts chew like leather rawhide. If ya want a decent steak, find a a good bar that fries ’em…

    Those rotted power poles aren’t cheap, try about $20K a piece.

    1.3 million homeless kids mixed in with the normal kids? Check for lice weekly? TB checks of your kids a good idea now? How do the homeless shower, in an ice cold rest area sink? Do the homeless kids stink and wear dirty clothes? Sounds like we need tons of Foster Homes instead?

    i

  13. 513
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 508

    >>This “Not to be confused with” is not in the reference that I quoted.

    Anyone can see it for themselves at https://www.thefreedictionary.com/infer , and there it is. That’s the reference you used, dude. You just accused me of dishonesty, but it was YOU that was wrong. No Socrates for you!

  14. 514
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 513 – Weird, the Mary Embree citation did not come up for me before. If you scroll down, you will see citations from multiple dictionaries saying something very different.

    Still, I was wrong on that fact.

  15. 515
    Erik says:

    Nice to see inventory dip below 4000 today.

    This market is primed for another bull run before the next bust. My guess is that trump closes the trade deal with China this winter and we have a beautiful price increase here in Seattle this spring.

  16. 516
    MKK says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 501
    Economics teacher here, so I like your question about the effects of rent control. Economists agree that rent control usually leads to a shortage of rental units because it is no longer as profitable for landlords to own them. They either sell them if they are single family or convert them to condos if they are apartments. Or alternatively, landlords keep the rental units but reduce their costs by deferring maintenance and allowing them to decay.
    You don’t hear much discussion of the effects of rent control on the real estate market, but I would hazard to guess that is puts downward pressure on home values. Landlords see less profit and sell, increasing the supply of housing. For those landlords who don’t sell, their deferred maintenance issues brings down the value of the whole neighborhood.

  17. 517
    MKK says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 501
    Here is a good article on the subject of rental control, with some great case studies of Cambridge and San Fran: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/

  18. 518
    dariakus says:

    RE: Erik @ 515 – Beauty is in the eye of the beholder :)

  19. 519
    Erik says:

    RE: dariakus @ 516
    I just wanna see the people waiting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect moment get served a fat slice of humble pie. I’ve fought these fools on here and in real life since 2013. Some people just have zero grit, so they analyze real estate until they prove to themselves they shouldn’t buy. It’s hard to watch.

  20. 520
    RoboHouse says:

    By Erik @ 517:

    RE: dariakus @ 516
    I just wanna see the people waiting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect moment get served a fat slice of humble pie. I’ve fought these fools on here and in real life since 2013. Some people just have zero grit, so they analyze real estate until they prove to themselves they shouldn’t buy. It’s hard to watch.

    Imagine a man who owns an investment, profits greatly from it, and tells others to do the same as he has done. When they don’t comply, he “fights” them and then waits around for them to experience misfortune and demise so he can stand over their huddled bodies and laugh at them.

    Pretty sad.

  21. 521

    RE: Erik @ 517
    Erik

    Your Baby Photo Needs a Change

    have it holding a a toy hammer with vigor…LOL

    Yep, Erik has grit alright, ya know ya have a much better chance to succeed when you imagine “win” at the end…the rest of the spineless lemming lambs pay full list price.

  22. 522

    In Seattle its Much Worse With Our High Rent and Low Wages With Growing Homelessness

    Its not 40% here but 60-70% of all workers totally stressed out in Seattle Squeeze traffic, lame jobs, defective outsourced manufacturing and H-1B replacement fears….

    https://www.studyfinds.org/perpetual-stress-four-in-ten-adults-close-to-breaking-point-at-work/

    Chill out with a bottle of Corona rotgut, the new version of Halo is out, grab it up, its only $80 a cartridge at Game Flop. Gobble your filling “meaty” Subway with a small paper candy container of measured meat, the rest mostly lettuce and bun.

  23. 523
  24. 524
    JustNoise says:

    Posted by The Tim on Redfin:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/september-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1011565&inquirySource=367

    “More sellers are pricing their homes a little below the price they expect to sell at, which is encouraging bidding wars to drive up price,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas. “In addition to teaser pricing like this, I’ve seen very aggressive price drops happening more often lately.”

  25. 525
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    The only reason Erik posts here is to prove that hubris is a thing,

  26. 526
    Any says:

    “In nearby San Jose, 18 percent of offers faced competition in September, down from 83 percent a year earlier.”

    This number is pretty staggering. In Sept 2018, even as interest rates neared their peaks and home prices were higher than they are now, still competition on 83 percent of offers there.

    Now, with slightly lower prices and much lower rates, only 18 percent of offers facing competition for the same month. The demand is drying up in a big way in San Jose.

    And this is with employment as good as it can possibly be with an economy on a fast track to recession.

  27. 527
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 518
    Ha! Will-do. I’ll take a picture of little man when he’s hungry for milk. That picture may scare some of the people on here. I can hear it now “Tim, Tim, Tim, Erik offended me with his hangry baby picture.”

  28. 528
    Erik says:

    RE: Longtime Listener First Time Caller @ 521
    The computer programmers on here tried hard to drag me down from 2010 until i had a success in 2013. They were unbelievably rude and hurtful. If you weren’t part of the code monkey beat down, I can see how you wouldn’t understand as you don’t have context.

  29. 529

    Time for a Cup of Yuban While Gobbling Down Your Addam’s Family Black Whip Cream Pancakes at a Denny’s Near You

    Its the same day late Friday copy you found free on the breakfast counter:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 11, 2019
    Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold talks with Michael Cox and Briar Rose Williams
    ‘I’m really sorry those people threatened you’
    A story that kept unfolding yesterday captured how quickly the politics around Seattle homelessness can explode. When Briar Rose Williams and Michael Cox parked a $1 trailer near the home of Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold, left, they landed in a firestorm. Before it was over, Williams would be threatened with a knife, the trailer vandalized, and a harsh spotlight cast on the couple, when all they wanted was a home. Now an activist who helped the story catch fire is trying to make things right. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Weekend traffic alert: A quarter-million travelers will need to detour or cancel trips into Seattle this weekend. Construction at various times will block Highway 520, Highway 99 and Sound Transit light rail downtown. Check traffic before you go.

    Millions of retirees will get a pay bump from Social Security next year. But “money is buying less and less,” some retirees point out as they fault the way the increase is calculated. For the average retiree, the monthly raise would buy about four Big Mac Meals.

    “Please just pack up and leave now.” Multiple homes have been destroyed and fire officials are telling more than 100,000 people to flee a fast-moving blaze in Los Angeles County. Thousands more people could soon find themselves in the dark as California widens preventive power shutoffs that have already affected millions of people.

    More than half of Washington’s bird species face trouble as forests shrink, sea levels rise and the seasons warm, according to a new Audubon study. If climate change continues on its current trajectory, “we are talking about huge changes in all aspects of their life history,” says an Audubon Washington official.

    After days of record cold temperatures, we’re back to our regularly scheduled weather programming. But we should have enough of a break in the clouds to spy a big, orange hunter’s moon. Here’s the forecast and a little lesson for sky-watchers.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    The fugitive sex offender who cut off his GPS tracker has been arrested in Enumclaw, “thanks to good old-fashioned police work,” the Pierce County Sheriff’s Office says.

    The $99 million Burke Museum finally opens tomorrow. Take a peek at the new, open, inside-out museum. Its opening is just one of the great things to do in the Seattle area this weekend. New restaurants, haunted houses, the mind-bending new Will Smith film and more await.

    Provided by City University of Seattle
    Turn local industry training into academic credit – hands-on experience provides a boost to workers entering a new job or field. Learn how adult learners and nontraditional students can apply valuable life experience toward a degree.
    WORTH A READ
    One King County councilmember’s challenger doesn’t want to win. Instead, he wants to shine a light on what he calls one of “the biggest transportation boondoggles in history.” Meanwhile, another councilmember faces an opponent who’s outraged about public safety. Here’s what you should know about the races in districts 6 and 8.

    “A very explosive team” is lurking behind the Huskies’ un-explosive stats, running back Salvon Ahmed says. Can that team emerge Saturday against Arizona? They won’t have Richard Newton, but there’s good news for the ailing running back.

    A teen came home from school to find his agitated dog in the driveway, broken glass on the porch and a godawful smell coming from inside. What he found made for “the most random story in the world” — and some wild photos, too. More Friday head-scratchers:

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Hikes without crowds, leaf-peeping and the anticipation of winter sports are the pleasures that accompany the sudden cold. Warm up to it with fall jackets and boots – and a lightweight ski/bike helmet with a pre-installed speaker!
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The years of no progress toward a new I-5 bridge over the Columbia River must end. Commuters and long-haul travelers between Washington and Oregon require immediate attention to be paid to this massive infrastructure need, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘The Addams Family’ review: a kooky but not-so-spooky animated feature
    Pianist Lang Lang, once dubbed ‘Bang Bang’ for his flashy technique, brings exquisite refinement to Seattle Symphony concert
    In his brilliant new book, Timothy Egan searches for faith in a secular world

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Partly cloudy. High 64. Low 43. Sunrise 7:22. Sunset 6:29….”

    SWE’s Take:
    The Trump retirees’ Social Security went up about 2% in 2020, beats the 0% Obama used to gives us. Trump’s 2019bMedicare Part B is about stable YOY, Obama’s Part B monthly costs were like his ACA plan YOY monthly cost increase plans, horrifying.

    Hey, did the rolling blackouts stop the “alleged” cause of California homelessness camp fires starting wild fires?….nope, they’re back irrespective of that phony cause. mitigating the homelessness crisis.

    And stop blaming wild birth deaths on Climate Change:

    https://www.wildbirdscoop.com/cats-leading-cause-of-bird-deaths.html

    Its cats, glass structures, wind power blades, etc, etc…a plethora of likely causes.

  30. 530

    Average Joe Pay in Seattle, NYC, Kansas City, etc, etc is about $20/hr Per Job and Per Capita.

    “…Nationwide, renters need to earn $20.30 an hour to afford a modest two-bedroom apartment, according to the report, and $16.35 for a one-bedroom, without exceeding the 30% threshold. In other words, to afford the typical two-bedroom unit in the U.S., renters need to make 2.8 times the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and $4.88 more than the $15.42 the average U.S. renters earns. In 14 states and Washington D.C., the housing wage exceeds $20 for a two-bedroom apartment…”

    https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/10-states-where-people-cant-really-afford-to-pay-rent.html/

    Sounds like about half the folks working in Seattle need homeless tents and camp fire gear while working…LOL

  31. 531
    Joe says:

    RE: Any @ 522

    As soon as a rational person senses home prices might go lower, the idea of leveraging out to buy a $1.5M asset loses its luster. You could lose $400k in a couple years, plus be stuck in a house you don’t even like.

    Why would anybody offer a competing bid for that opportunity?

  32. 532
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR housing inventory: Buyers and sellers both being stupid: Buyers, you should wait for lower prices. Sellers, you should sell NOW rather than waste valuable time on refinancing. Higher mortgage rates and lower prices coming. #seattlebubble

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1183087340224335872

  33. 533
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 528
    Trump just made a deal with China. He cites technology and Boeing as beneficiaries of the deal.

    Hold onto your Seattle real estate! We are about to see another price bump.

  34. 534
    Any says:

    RE: Erik @ 529

    Lol @ believing Trump. He’s been manipulating the market for months. The only thing they’ve really agreed on so far is that China will buy some beans and the Oct 15th tariffs won’t go into effect. When asked about the deal Mnuchin repeatedly said “we understand the key issues but there is still much work to do.” They’ve made almost no progress in 1.5 years. China will wait for Trump to get impeached and hope the next POTUS is fine going back to the former (crappy) status quo without much hassle.

  35. 535
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 530
    Okay, I’m going to believe because he’s been right all the other times. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m buying more real estate.

  36. 536
    Any says:

    Lol @ “He’s been right all the other times.”

  37. 537
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 531:

    RE: Any @ 530
    Okay, I’m going to believe because he’s been right all the other times. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m buying more real estate.

    https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/byruling/false/

  38. 538

    RE: Erik @ 531
    It Looks Like the Best Real Estate to Buy From the Phase I Chinese Trade Deal is Midwest Farmland and Invest in Tractor Stock

    The deal includes like a $50B increase in farm foods [soy I assume?] to China as American exports. John Deere stock looks good now….LOL….fertilizers and diesel oil too. Yes, this could spread to Seattle too, more business travel and office computer needs.

    I was in Wisconsin and the real estate for farmland has lots of turn-over with small profit farms folding…grab up some short sell “raw land” before the buffoons figure it out….

  39. 539

    Seattle Real Estate Price Hikes are Boosted by Lower Cost Healthcare, of Course It Is

    But Hades will freeze over before the Open Border Party lifts a finger on upgrading the ACA price monster, they’re afraid if the economy improves with Congress support, Trump will get elected in 2020 because things are even better, so they purposely stall on health care reforms.

    I was reading Michael Crichton’s non-fiction “Five Patients” [1969] and the health care crisis then was for the same reasons. [ref page 64 of the book] as 2019:

    1. Private Insurance [Blue Cross, etc] was labeled the cost reason and efforts to eliminate it for cheaper insurance forced the numbers of doctors to shrink drastically.

    2. The AMA wanted Medicare eliminated and encouraged Big Pharma price hikes on prescriptions.

    3. The AMA pushed worthless cures too, like Opioids, useless tests, endless useless shots, etc, etc….Crichton call these “Blind Spots”…

    The astounding errors in judgement occurred in 1969 like 2019…but we can’t agree on the fix without Congress getting its act together, NOW.

    4. The technological breakthrough in televised checkups and computerized office visits was far more advanced in 1969 than 2019 IMO….Bioengineering and Raw Data limits can DRASTICALLY automate medical costs and eliminate the need for doctor and nurses needed on payrolls. Why have we been eliminating “wide-spread” American Hospital Bioengineering influence [we outsource most all it now] instead of encouraging it? We’re buffoons. 1969 had an advantage over today, we relied less on useless data collection computer direction contraptions and more on the engineering safety factor and their understanding.

  40. 540
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 533
    That sounds like a good plan SWE and I’d love to be that bold. I’ve never bought long distance real estate although I’d love to add that to my tool box. Do update me on how it goes flipping farmland.

    Here’s my plan… Buy 20 rentals in the city of Seattle. Rent them until the prices double. Sell 10 and buy the other 10 outright. Then I’ll meet SWE for coffee in Kent and we can talk about how nice it is living on guaranteed income. I may even join toastmasters with you.

  41. 541

    I See Gasoline at the Pump Rose About 30 cent/gal the Last Week

    The regular is $3.19/gal at Fred Meyer now.

    Add to this cost increase the “one way” tunnel toll charge from your average Joe pay checks:

    “… $1 to $2.25 with a Good To Go! pass depending on time of day…”

    Skip lunch out and bring cheap peanut butter and jelly sandwiches from home as replacements….even a single patty at Wendy’s means forking out $5 for a bite to eat….tighten the budget belts, we still have old Kingdome bills left to pay too….

    I love Seattle’s taxation, but imagine the extra traffic pouring onto I-5 Seattle to avoid the toll charge….”Super Seattle Squeeze”, at a theater near you this Thanksgiving…saw the same thing on I-405 when they tolled the Lake Washington Bridge too.

  42. 542

    RE: Erik @ 535
    I Learned Something Yesterday Reading Crichton [Harvard Medical Doctor BTW]

    History and today are more similar than we think. Hades, we’ve heard the farmers scream for starvation subsidies due to poor business decisions for decades now, and the foreclosures of farmlands has been going on for decades too. Its always a good time to richen your portfolio. Why wait? The buffoons pay list price and cry later…

    We had a more “hands-on” approach to technology [new inventions besides miniaturization of decades old “regurgitated” inventions]…our average IQs were 40 points higher than now too. The “Poptart” college graduates with no manufacturing job experience are just as useless as medical “Poptart” student interns trying to replace safety limit engineering understanding of medical practice efficiencies. Ask SWE about pick lines and nurse/doctor employment needs decreasing way down as we get it right the first time with “just a few” experienced engineers on the hospitals’ board. The solution gold ring is there, just grab it. I helped invent ultrasound insertion of picklines in the mid 90s. Its now a recognized science in nursing today. I’m just one volunteer Bioengineer, imagine a thousand of us “on board” repairing the medical devise field.

  43. 543
    Deerhawke says:

    Back from a vacation with family in Ireland. The news is similar to here in so many ways.

    Lots of talk about Brexit and the many ways Trump-mini-me Boris Johnson is going to
    – collapse the English economy leading to the end of the term Great Britain
    – further strengthen the Irish economy
    – assist in the process of Irish unification

    Kind of hard to see how the conservatives, the party of Churchill, could go along with Boris’s stupidity. But then again it is hard to see how the Republicans, the party of Lincoln and Reagan, could go along with Trump’s stupidity.

    The other big topic was the dramatic rise in the cost of housing and what to do about it.

    All the tech and fintech firms have been moving in, building and hiring. Rents have been skyrocketing. Lots of talk about rent control, but the government seems to understand this is a short term solution that creates to a huge long term problem. They are promising more public housing after paying the costs for dealing with Brexit.

  44. 544

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538
    You Support EU [German] control with Germany getting all its natural gas from Russia?

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

  45. 545
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538

    Wow, that was more convoluted than usual. Everybody, let’s have a little contest. Please fill in the blanks and see if you can help me understand

    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Great Britain
    _________ is to Seattle as Brexit is to Ireland (if you prefer)

    Go.

  46. 546
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 539:

    EU’s refusal to pay their fair share of NATO and the Syria refugee problem with the Kurds? Hades the Kurds lived in Iraq, now they moved to Syria? Why? Are they a Hollywood act of poor folk phonies that moves to war torn Syria from Iraq to seek EU asylum and American NATO money?

    When did Deerhawke become a war monger for endless Middle East wars? LOL, did this occur just after Trump was elected? Just curious, you liberals are usually against the WAR MONGERS. Why are you for endless wars now?

    The Kurds are 20 million- 30 million people. They have lived in their territory which is now included in parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Armenia for more than a thousand years before those nation states’ borders were imposed on them. They are not moving around for NATO money. Survival will likely dictate they align with Russia’s ally Assad against NATO member Turkey. It’s a great day for Putin.

    When did software engineer decide uneasy standoffs are war mongering perpetual war, but bombings of women and children are not? Is this a final solution kind of thing?

    By the way, it’s true that the Kurds may not have been with us at Normandy, but you can bet that relatives of your Fuehrer were there. Well, not with us exactly. But they were there; shooting from their emplacements, so what the hey.

  47. 547
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 538
    You are a smart guy and all you talk about anymore is your political beliefs, which will not benefit anyone. Please help us out and get back to real estate. I use to love reading your comments. Please get back to that. You won!!! I’m waving the white flag. Star Jones, Rosie Odonell, you, and the Democrats are right! Now please drop this political nonsense.

  48. 548
    ruxpert says:

    Report: Amazon’s rapid expansion in Bellevue could reach 4.8M square feet and

    power ‘spectacular’ growth for Seattle suburb

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/amazons-rapid-expansion-bellevue-reach-4-8m-square-feet-power-spectacular-growth-seattle-suburb/

  49. 549
    S-Crow says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543 – If only half of that comes to fruition, it is remarkable. Traffic is bad as it is through Bellevue. I can’t imagine what it would be like adding just half the volume of people they project.

    I’m flying 3x out of Paine Field by year end. I used to get to SeaTac within 15 minutes from my old house on Capitol Hill. It takes me over a hour with semi-poor traffic going through Bellevue to SeaTac from Snohomish. Paine Field is my new SeaTac. Maybe more people will migrate into Snohomish Co. specifically due to Paine flights now going to LAX, LAS, SFO, SJC, PDX, SAN, SNA,PHX, GEG, SPS, DEN, etc.

  50. 550
    kenmorem says:

    By S-Crow @ 544:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543 – If only half of that comes to fruition, it is remarkable. Traffic is bad as it is through Bellevue. I can’t imagine what it would be like adding just half the volume of people they project.

    I’m flying 3x out of Paine Field by year end. I used to get to SeaTac within 15 minutes from my old house on Capitol Hill. It takes me over a hour with semi-poor traffic going through Bellevue to SeaTac from Snohomish. Paine Field is my new SeaTac. Maybe more people will migrate into Snohomish Co. specifically due to Paine flights now going to LAX, LAS, SFO, SJC, PDX, SAN, SNA,PHX, GEG, SPS, DEN, etc.

    my mom now flies from ORL to paine. way more convenient.

    and yes, the growth for amazon and other tech companies on the east side will be huge. we are working on projects along the light rail path (structural engineering) and it’s pretty damn apparent that this whole corridor will see a large shift. amazon is already buying up office buildings around lightrail stops, the downtown bellevue TC, etc.

    when you stand in the spring district (not yet a real district, but something created out of thin air) and look eastward, all you can do is think: damn, all this single story, low density light industrial and commercial is going to be replaced by mid rise buildings and endless tech bros.

    bellevue to redmond will one day dwarf seattle’s tech scene. and there’ll be no needles anywhere. i-605 will probably become a hot topic at some point in time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_605_(Washington)

    you think traffic on hwy 2 on the weekends sucks now? just wait.

    FWIW: i’ve studied alternatives in the issaquah area for different road improvement projects. there aren’t many good options. i-605 may be here sooner than we think. the growth projections (dubious, but still) are staggering for the eastside communities.

    me: i hope to be out of WA long before any of this ‘ish gets here. cash out the chips and forego the future bounties for sake of saving my sanity, even though i bike commute to work and traffic generally does not impact me.

  51. 551
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543

    Thanks for pointing this article out. Pretty amazing numbers.

    Given a standard figure of 200-220 SF per employee, you could see not 15,000 but 20,000-24,000 employees there. Plus Apple, plus Google, plus Facebook, plus oh yeah, all that continued growth at Microsoft, plus all the infrastructure and vendor firms, plus housing.

    I have always felt the East Side was the stodgy and sterile burbs. But now it has become the center for tremendous growth and dynamism.

    If we are lucky, Seattle will rise to the challenge and a decade from now you will see Seattle and Bellevue as the Twin Tech Cities. If not, Seattle will become that place that used to be the future and somehow became the past.

    Think the Seattle City Council has gotten the memo?

  52. 552

    RE: whatsmyname @ 541

    Interesting List for Kurds’ Motherland, almost all the Middle East Countries, hey they’re like the Palestines in Jesurselum….we need to hate our Jewish ally because someone else thinks part of their country belongs to them? I’m still suspicious of getting involved in endless Mid East wars and you didn’t give me a good reason to spend Trillions defending Kurds either. And why is our EU ally Turkey attacking them? My best guess is the new asylum laws process [Trump identified correctly for America and the world too] allow millions from Syria to seek asylum in Turkey [they share a border with Syria, allowing asylum] and you want more asylum hoards in America too? Why? Let Germany take care of the Syrian refugees, they just love them…..ask Merkel.

    Hey….I got that mess off our backs, why back any plan for anything [like real estate buying] on personal politics instead of the salient facts? You’ll lose your shirt.

    Now, gulp down your Yuban and enjoy the Brief:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, October 15, 2019
    Agustin Banda holds a cross with his wife’s photo
    Woman killed crossing Seattle street where neighbors had long pushed for a crosswalk
    Agustin Banda, above, was walking to the Lake City Community Center with his wife one morning last month when a driver hit the couple and took off. Maria Banda, 77, didn’t survive. It was at least the second traffic-related death in six months in the area, where safety has long been a concern. (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    “You want me to sell my car to pay my hospital bill?” Patients in need are supposed to receive free or discounted care at nonprofit hospitals, but many have been getting big bills instead. One hospital that’s “really gone off the deep end” in its quest for money, according to a state lawmaker: St. Joseph Medical Center in Tacoma.

    Never mind the Seattle tower that WeWork was supposed to turn into a vertical neighborhood, where communal dinners and shared fun would thaw the Seattle Freeze. Martin Selig Real Estate and the money-losing coworking startup have ditched their deal for the 36-story project.

    Upset Seattle University students and faculty are pushing back against the school’s president after he decided to remove Planned Parenthood from an online list of health-care resources. President Stephen Sundborg said he was “reflecting the central teaching of the Catholic Church regarding abortion.”

    The top 12 Democratic presidential candidates face off tonight at 5 p.m. Pacific time, after a month in which voters have been jolted repeatedly by impeachment talk and Bernie Sanders’ heart attack. Six questions loom over the debate. More:

    Here’s what Joe Biden needs to do to succeed tonight, as son Hunter Biden speaks out on his role with a Ukraine firm.
    The debate takes place in a state that has occupied a hallowed role in presidential races.
    Check back tonight for updates and analysis.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘DAMS OR SALMON’
    Celilo Falls
    For some 11,000 years, Celilo Falls was a prized salmon fishery and a cultural and economic hub. That all ended when the Oregon falls were drowned by construction of The Dalles Dam in 1957. Now Yakama and Lummi tribal leaders say three Columbia River dams must come down to restore salmon runs. The dams churn out enough electricity to power more than 2 million homes annually. (Photo: Wayne Buchanan / U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Soundgarden and Dave Matthews Band have been nominated for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. This year’s nominees were announced this morning. Soundgarden would be the third of grunge’s Big Four to enter the Hall.

    Math is fun! At least that’s what Washington students think on this Worlds Math Day. We’re tied for the top state in the nation where number-crunching is kids’ idea of a good time. In case your kid isn’t among the enthusiastic ones, here are some ways to make math less intimidating and more exciting.

    A natural-gas leak at a U District construction site forced evacuations that lasted for more than three hours yesterday. It came days after a leaking gas line ignited in North Seattle, injuring three Puget Sound Energy workers.

    Pharmacy benefit managers leverage competition among drugmakers and drugstores to save patients and payers an average of $123 per brand prescription, negotiating costs down by nearly $13.7 billion in Washington. Learn more at OnYourRxSide.org.
    WORTH A READ
    King County Metro was the nation’s top public transportation agency last year, so why are riders cranky about it? The author of “Trains, Buses, People: An Opinionated Atlas of U.S. Transit” talks about why the Seattle area scores so well and what we need to do better.

    Who can best lead Renton through the dramatic changes ahead? Voters will find sharp differences between former state Rep. Marcie Maxwell and City Councilmember Armondo Pavone, the seasoned politicians who are running for mayor.

    For empty nesters transitioning out of their houses, affordability is a big priority, before and during retirement. But that doesn’t always mean downsizing. See why these real-life homebuyers are smart-sizing instead.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Voters in Seattle District 6 — including Ballard, Fremont and Green Lake — should elect Heidi Wills, their best hope for more thoughtful, responsive City Council representation, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Soundgarden and Dave Matthews Band nominated for Rock & Roll Hall of Fame
    Lit Crawl Seattle 2019: Welcome to the roving literary party taking over Capitol Hill later this month
    So crazy: Broadway star and Bellevue native Megan Hilty never envisioned playing Patsy Cline on Lifetime

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Cloudy. High 60. Low 52. Sunrise 7:27. Sunset 6:21. ..”

    SWE’s take:

    Retiree’s need a mortgage loan refinance like a sock in the stomach….its like an endless war and you extended the interest payments for decades…sell and $CASH$ out is my advice.

    Asking advance knowledge at a hospital of how much it will cost is like asking Alfred E Neuman a complex math question…LOL

    How much is an abortion at Planned Parenthood anyway? $10K $CASH$ without Medicaid? Medicaid forks out for Opioids too…what else does Medicaid cover? Hardly nothing?

  53. 553

    RE: softwarengineer @ 547

    “Why back any plan for anything [like real estate buying] on personal politics…”

    I started in Real Estate around June 1 of 1990 and I remember the real estate office being in chaos when Desert Storm hit. Escrows were failing left and right. There were other times as well when political and world oriented events turned interest rates sharply creating chaos, especially for those who were floating their rate…this more important in Seattle than in most parts of the Country. We don’t have a rate cap in our Financing Contingencies the way other areas do, which is why more of our local buyers got sucked into subprime with almost no recourse.

    One has to keep their eye on all of the balls in play.

    As to the general picture, as long as the DOW is running this way or that of 27,000 and edging back and coming back over it…the market is still slightly up to flat. But merely watching the markets without factoring in political and world crisis events, is not optimal.

    In the Desert Storm days I would have clients apply with two lenders and lock one and float one. Harder to do that these days and almost never done. But when rates pop up briefly like they did in the 3rd Quarter of 2018, doing that deserves consideration. From contract to close was also much longer back in 1990-1991, Desert Storm days, than now. Not uncommon for that to be 90 vs 30 days. Shorter escrows with locked in rates did help.

    In the 80s the rate locked at time of application without the option to float or lock. That changed when the lenders were disadvantaged by that policy. I forget what year that was as I was running Investment Portfolios and not in real estate during that time.

  54. 554

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 548
    Great Plan Ardell

    That’s why you are my favorite realtor, you look at all the details, not just a chosen outcome that won’t happen anyway.

    When Trump wins the 2020 election, I imagine the forces for lower wages and lower real estate prices will continue by the Open Border Party to make Trump look bad , and help no one. Imagine $100/mo Blue Cross in Seattle if all employers were forced to offer “mandatory” private insurance, a political agenda both the Open Border Party and Trump [perhaps not?] won’t touch…it drives private insurance cost way down and encourages real estate prices to rise. We can still cover pre-existing conditions too. God forbid we do that….LOL

  55. 555

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 548
    The DOW Under the Trump Impeachment Inquiry

    Is still running YOY increases in the +3-9% level, that ain’t chump change compared to real estate or any other investment recently. Wages are held back by lack of skills and experience in manufacturing, space technology, automobile safety and decent transmission designs [ineffective military Buy American Act purchases in Seattle aerospace too, BTW, its on all military contracts]…..its gonna take 5-10 years to get that “on-the-job experience back from much higher priced Asia and Europe manufacturing engineers. Meanwhile we have our best lever, food. Its a good quick burst of money into real estate at all levels. The Phase I China deal proves that.

    Its tough to run on one leg [no manufacturing] with a prosthetic, but still possible with a positive plan to change the insanity in the future.

  56. 556
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543
    RE: Deerhawke @ 546

    Yeah? Layer upon layer of wishful conjecture of Amazon’s future footprint in Bellevue. The only thing that is real here is the 325k ft2 currently occupied by Amazon. Then there is a 9X extrapolation to 2.9M ft2 based on pre-application (!) building plans that are not even a real plan. Then there are leases or lease comittments that cannot easily be verified, and generic speculation. And then there is the additional 6X extrapolation of 1.9M ft2 that even Broderick Group admits is nothing but broker gossip.

    Can Broderick Group or the journalist provide a solid public source reference for all the numbers? For each lease, is this a real lease being paid now, or just a letter of intent, or a weak lease agreement with an opt out that may unravel the plan at some future date? Do tell, with solid publicly available sources, lease start dates and durations. What about the supposed “building plans”, could they not be ditched by Amazon? According to and older geekwire article, “Amazon has filed a pre-application package for the project, Sedo said, and details could change as the plans develop”. That basically means there is no comittment whatsoever from Amazon. There is not even a building application at this point.

    In summary, most of the article is a rehash of old and new wishful thinking by a CRE broker (Broderick Group) that wants to profit from brokering offices and retail space to Amazon hangers-on that might be tempted to make a move into some imagined ecosystem that might sprout around a new Amazon hub. By the way, how is such thinking working out in South Lake Union? Was it worth the gamble for all those apartment towers and ground-floor retail that speculated on continued Amazon expansion in SLU? Reports of empty luxury apartment towers abound. Was it all just a waste and a a loss?

  57. 557
    N says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/wework-landlord-scrap-deal-for-lease-of-36-story-seattle-tower

    Re: We Work – Their troubles are well documented, but they are a major player in Seattle commercial real estate having expanded or committed to 22 sites in Seattle. Is this just a troubled firm trying to stop the bleeding, or can we read something into this.

    Will someone else step in and lease this brand new 36 story tower? (Note, 23 floors were to be residential as We Live)

  58. 558
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 551
    RE: N @ 552

    N, what you wrote is very apropos to my previous posts. The lofty plans of WeWork is a great example of how property speculation that looks like a sure bet can unravel in a hurry. As Ben Jones would say, what happened to the shortage?

  59. 559
    Justme says:

    Seattletimes reports that the WeWork IPO cancellation will mean that Amazon very likely will not be able to sublease to WeWork some 400k ft2 at the Rainier Square skyscraper now under construction. So, Amazon already has more space coming online in Seattle than it knows what to do with. Does is sound like Amazon will go forth with a big expansion in Bellevue, or might they just have gotten a bit of a cold shower?

    QUOTE:

    “And as WeWork is rocked by turmoil, the company has put on the back burner any new leases, meaning hundreds of thousands of square feet it was considering in Seattle could be up for grabs. WeWork, already one of the Seattle area’s largest office landlords, previously planned to scale up further by subleasing from Amazon close to 400,000 square feet at the Rainier Square skyscraper now under construction. The slowdown throws that deal into question. So far, the company hasn’t inked a contract on the space.”

    Reference: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/beleaguered-wework-and-martin-selig-dissolve-deal-for-residential-project-in-belltown/

    PS: Did y’all notice how the sublease to WeWork has previously been publicized as a done deal, but now suddenly is described as “So far, the company hasn’t inked a contract on the space.” Sounds like another phantom lease that never really existed. How many of all the other publicized lease deals in Seattle are all talk and no substance?

  60. 560
    Eastsider says:

    From past experience, there will be a flood of CRE office space for lease in the next recession. The $64 million question is the timing of recession. (Not sure how many here remember the huge holes in downtown Bellevue after the Great Recession. It was not supposed to happen that way!)

  61. 561
  62. 562
    Snp says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 559

    Yet all of those employees currently live in the Bellevue/Seattle area, it’s not like it is a net positive for 4500 jobs. Going from Bellevue to Seattle is nothing. Though I would not want that commute for anything.

  63. 563
    ruxpert says:

    Perhaps the new incoming BellevueAmazon employees will buy the houses of the Expedia employees moving from Bellevue to Seattle?

  64. 564
    ruxpert says:

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    https://www.seattle.gov/sdci/permits/common-projects/accessory-dwelling-units

  65. 565
    Bumble says:

    By Justme @ 554:

    RE: ruxpert @ 543
    RE: Deerhawke @ 546

    By the way, how is such thinking working out in South Lake Union? Was it worth the gamble for all those apartment towers and ground-floor retail that speculated on continued Amazon expansion in SLU? Reports of empty luxury apartment towers abound. Was it all just a waste and a a loss?

    Amazon paused hiring in Seattle starting in 2017, adding just 2k or 3k employees per year in the Seattle area. But it plans to resume its aggressive hiring in the next year with a target of 10k new hires by some time in 2020. It is just one factor, I know, but a factor that mirrors the years of wild growth in RE demand a few years ago. The next year or two will be interesting to watch.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-tops-53500-local-employees-as-it-begins-nationwide-hiring-push/

  66. 566
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 557 – Suppose Amazon does cut back on their Bellevue growth in order to channel that growth into Seattle. It’s really all one market, so how does that reallocation help your cause? I would think a more direct connection to your concerns would lie in the 23 floors of expected downtown residential space that appears not to be happening after all. Expectations, as someone here was saying, can unravel in a hurry.

  67. 567
    Justme says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 562

    Is NODE your company product?

  68. 568
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 550:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 541

    Interesting List for Kurds’ Motherland, almost all the Middle East Countries, hey they’re like the Palestines in Jesurselum….we need to hate our Jewish ally because someone else thinks part of their country belongs to them? I’m still suspicious of getting involved in endless Mid East wars and you didn’t give me a good reason to spend Trillions defending Kurds either. And why is our EU ally Turkey attacking them? My best guess is the new asylum laws process [Trump identified correctly for America and the world too] allow millions from Syria to seek asylum in Turkey [they share a border with Syria, allowing asylum] and you want more asylum hoards in America too? Why? Let Germany take care of the Syrian refugees, they just love them…..ask Merkel.

    No one suggested we should hate our Jewish ally. This has nothing to do with them, although the Kurds have done more to eliminate ISIS fighters.
    No one has suggested endless involvement or trillions of dollars.
    You are dead wrong on the Turkish Kurdish problem which is not generated from asylum.
    Neither I, not Germany hope for hoards of Syrian refugees.

    In the time you used to claw the above from your posterior, you could have checked Wikipedia to get some tiny bit of actual information to move forward on. This is America, and we have the right to be as shallow, ignorant, and bigoted as we wish. I am sure the President appreciates beyond measure your vigilance and dedication to your rights.

  69. 569
    Justme says:

    Hah. The same crowd of bubble-mongers that were crowing about Bellevue jobs are now saying these jobs do not matter.

    Aren’t these people just precious in their propaganda?

  70. 570
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 566 – It’s job growth. It’s not that the jobs don’t matter. What doesn’t matter to most of us is whether they are in Seattle or Bellevue. You, on the other hand seem to be claiming that job growth doesn’t matter if the jobs wind up in Seattle. Now that’s propaganda.

  71. 571

    RE: whatsmyname @ 565
    Ya Did a Reset Then

    Before the 2016 you were batting Trump on the head for asylum immigration bans [9th District Courts] reversed by the Supreme Court. Syrian Refugees. BTW, why did Turkey [our ally] attack Syria Kurds [our Ally] anyway? Just because or to stop the asylum hoards of Kurds crossing their border [they need a WALL too]? Its a key fact and you don’t know do you, so why is my opinion automatically wrong when it seems to fit like a puzzle piece?

    Thanks for your opinion though, all thought leads to cause. Pence and Pompao are heading to Turkey for answers, we’ll know more later. Germany and the EU may have BREXIT voters against uncontrolled immigration asylum, even the majority of EU voters; but they oppose the Populists with Deep State globalism Fascism and uncontrolled OVERPOPULATION of the EU, IMO.

  72. 572
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 567

    So we can agree that the jobs are not happening in Seattle and barely happening in Bellevue, so far?

    Phantom jobs and phantom leases, they can cause prices to rise if people believe the propaganda. Don’t fall for the propaganda.

  73. 573
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 567

    For those of us in the business who work in Seattle, the fact that the jobs are going to Bellevue does matter. But really this is just politics in action. The Seattle City Council has been openly hostile to Amazon and blames the city’s problems on the tech companies bringing jobs and energy to Seattle. They show an unbelievable level of entitled ignorance.

    I think over time you will find that Bellevue/East Side median sale numbers will go up while Seattle will go mainly sideways or rise just a bit over time. The obvious reason is that the new tech jobs are increasingly going to the East Side. But the other reason is that you are going to be getting a different composition of sales over time.

    In Seattle, you will see more townhouses for a while yet as the current pre-tax mini-glut is absorbed at lower prices. But you will also see fewer new homes being built in Seattle in the next year. The city council put in its new townhouse tax as well as the so-called “McMansion law” . After the housing that is currently in the pipeline, if you see new townhouses they will be smaller and especially narrower. No parking of course. And true SF houses will also be smaller (2500 sf max) and therefore cost the same or less — although they may cost much more on a $/sf basis. Most of the Seattle builders I know are going to work through their existing permitted inventory and then head across 90 and 520 to build there.

    So the Seattle median sales numbers will drop because of the change in composition of sales. Short of a nasty recession, we will see prices that continue to rise. Inventory is back to its 2012-2014 reset level.
    And yet more people continue to arrive in the area. Not at the same pace as 2015-2017, but they are still coming here for the lifestyle and the jobs.

    Some will want to live in Seattle while more will choose Bellevue and Kirkland. Demographics plays a role too. As more of the millenials have families and kids,  they will look at space, school choice, etc and choose the East Side.

    But do not for a minute believe that the Seattle house you have been hoping to buy will drop in price.

    I have friends looking for a home in a central Seattle neighborhood– ideally Wallingford, Phinney or Greenlake. They were convinced that prices would drop when they started to look seriously in January. But after nine months of looking, their agent informed them they would need to either change their expectations or their price range. The odd/old housing sits longer and gets bid down a bit. The nicer/remodeled inventory on a full size lot still gets multiple offers. Prices are down a bit from 2017 and early 2018, but up for 2019.

  74. 574
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 569

    “So we can agree that the jobs are not happening in Seattle and barely happening in Bellevue, so far?”

    Umm… no. We can agree that :
    – the number of jobs coming to Seattle is down from 2015-2017 but is still the envy of most other major cities in the US, and

    – the number of jobs coming to Bellevue is going to explode along the lines of 2015-2017 in Seattle, but

    – they are all jobs coming to the Puget Sound area that will affect real estate throughout the entire region, from Tacoma to Everett

  75. 575
    kenmorem says:

    By Deerhawke @ 571:

    RE: Justme @ 569
    – they are all jobs coming to the Puget Sound area that will affect real estate throughout the entire region, from Tacoma to Everett

    correction: olympia to mt vernon will more likely be the swath of growth once tacoma becomes too $$$ and the marysville crowd gets tired of the southbound commute and jobs start moving north.

  76. 576
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 572
    You ever drive from everett to renton? during rush hours, it easily takes 1 to 2 hrs depend if some idiot driver rear end other. mt vernon to olympic? you can fly to sf in same time. the whole seattle bubble is traffic to the end. we have water on the west and mountain on the east. you want save time, you’d better pay more to live close to seattle.

  77. 577

    RE: Deerhawke @ 570

    Being from Philadelphia and knowing most East Coast major cities, it surprised me that Seattle didn’t always have lots and lots of attached housing. Single family homes as the norm anywhere near a downtown and no rowhomes in the burbs at all is pretty much an oddity. Any major city with lots of jobs and population has had tons of attached rowhouses for over 100 years. I think Seattle is just catching up and the problem is transportation, not housing. People on the East Coast don’t consider a bus vs a train (Amtrak or EL – evated) or high speed line (from NJ) into the City to be a practical option.

    It was easier for me to get around in the 60’s where I’m from that in it is around here in 2019.

    Seattle is spoiled as to single family homes in-City and will just have to get over their aversion to attached housing. That this area doesn’t have older attached housing is the main reason why affordability is a problem. You can still get a rowhouse in Philly for a ridiculously low price and take a train or the EL into Downtown or most any workplace. Same is true for most Major Cities. Seattle just has to adjust to being a major City workplace and stop turning their noses up at attached housing.

  78. 578
    whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 568:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 565
    Ya Did a Reset Then

    Before the 2016 you were batting Trump on the head for asylum immigration bans [9th District Courts] reversed by the Supreme Court. Syrian Refugees. BTW, why did Turkey [our ally] attack Syria Kurds [our Ally] anyway? Just because or to stop the asylum hoards of Kurds crossing their border [they need a WALL too]? Its a key fact and you don’t know do you, so why is my opinion automatically wrong when it seems to fit like a puzzle piece?

    Thanks for your opinion though, all thought leads to cause. Pence and Pompao are heading to Turkey for answers, we’ll know more later. Germany and the EU may have BREXIT voters against uncontrolled immigration asylum, even the majority of EU voters; but they oppose the Populists with Deep State globalism Fascism and uncontrolled OVERPOPULATION of the EU, IMO.

    About 18% of people in Turkey are Kurds; not because they came there in hoards, but because they were already there when the allies allowed Turkey’s boarders to encompass them. Why does Turkey hate them? Because they are not Turks. Because they have resisted the outlawing of their language, clothes, and music. Because they keep trying for autonomy, and their own state. Because the Syrian Kurds might have established a de facto state. If the French had a Trump in 1776, we might not be a country today.

    It’s no big deal if a Turkish killing machine crosses Syria’s borders; it’s not our border. It’s just like when Russians attack our election system. Oh wait, that is in our border, but it’s still OK. What’s bad is when civilians running for their lives cross borders. Maybe the Turks can help us shoot em in the legs. I hear they’re pretty good at that. MAGA.

    Any chance we can get back to real estate and the financial prowess of investing in a trailer park home?

  79. 579
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 571

    All that solid data about jobs really blew me away.

  80. 580

    RE: softwarengineer @ 568

    Dragging you back to real estate. :) I don’t usually post my listings here but my retina detached just before I started staging this. I postponed the surgery to early tomorrow morning so I could get this staged and online first. I need some immediate today feedback if anyone sees any needed changes before they insert an air bubble into my eye at 6:30 a.m. tomorrow morning. :)

    https://www.estately.com/listings/info/1725-290th-ave-ne–1#!

    Any feedback appreciated, especially on the photos as my one good eye was wearing out after 4 hours of photo editing late yesterday.

  81. 581

    Time to Stop Worrying About Real Estate In Seattle

    We all know the prices are way too high to plan dinky average per capita pay into. An impossible if not bad investment.

    Why is solving the problem bad and condemning voices that want to do nothing because their politics thinks its hurting Trump if we lower real estate prices….LOL….sounds like an impasse to me.

    Another irritant I have is politics making a lion’s share of us hate each other, when did this happen? IMO, we’re going to Hades in hen basket on this path. Welcome to America, where we can pray for lawlessness, but not allow hope? LOL, Yes, people are leaving Seattle because they hate this hypocritical Fascism against free speech in Seattle, many Bubble bloggers have said this too. They’re sick of our high taxes and hypocrisy to truth. They’re fleeing California over the high taxes and thin skinned “snowflake” attitude too. But I’m a devil bringing this up with halos and angel wings anyway? I’m going to party with the Millennials, they agree with me.

    Meanwhile, I’m off to Toastmasters at 12PM today at the Kent City Hall Millenial Bldg, floor 4. We have the same problem of mixing oil and water politics in our speech topics, its normal in almost all topics, not an alleged abnormal communications in real estate as exception. We address this conflict and laugh about it and we’re all happy to just agree to disagree…do I care if I sell to a dem or rep, Hades no, whoever qualifies and pays the contract. Join me, your day will be much better, I guarantee it.

  82. 582
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 577

    I think the listing looks solid Ardell. Most agents don’t show this kind of dedication. I hope all goes well with your surgery.

  83. 583

    The Rain Must Be Making the Bubbleheads Thin Skinned Lately?

    Time to chill out and pour yourself a Yuban and read the brief:

    “….The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, October 17, 2019
    Nechirvan Zebari works at his family’s bakery
    Chaos in Syria hangs heavy over Western Washington’s Kurds
    For Nechirvan Zebari, “the worst feeling is of helplessness” as he works at Alida’s, his family’s Kurdish bakery in Everett. His family is riveted to the news unfolding 6,500 miles away, after U.S. troops withdrew from Kurdish-held northeastern Syria and the Turkish army swept in with full force. Vice President Mike Pence jetted to Turkey today to urge a cease-fire, a day after an explosive meeting on Syria sent Democrats storming out of the White House. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    The Great Washington Shakeout happens today at 10:17 a.m. Millions of people around the world will take part in earthquake drills, and emergency-management experts are spreading the word about quick actions to take when The Big One hits. If it happened today, would you be ready to rumble? Get set up with our earthquake-preparedness tips.

    A Seattle hotelier who is central to the impeachment inquiry is distancing himself from President Donald Trump as he testifies today. Check back for updates on what U.S. Ambassador Gordon Sondland is telling House investigators. Here’s how the Mercer Island native landed in the middle of this mess. At the same time, taxpayers are funding a lavish renovation of Sondland’s home that’s raising eyebrows.

    In less than three weeks, Washington voters will decide on two statewide ballot measures, a constitutional amendment and dozens of local ballot issues and races. We’ve pulled together a guide to help you brush up on the candidates and the issues. And here are a few fresh election stories:

    Seattle City Council: Incumbent Debora Juarez and challenger Ann Davison Sattler are deeply divided over how to tackle homelessness.
    Seattle schools: Board President Leslie Harris has lost the support of the teachers union, which is throwing its weight behind Molly Mitchell.

    Obituary: Rep. Elijah Cummings, a sharecropper’s son who rose to become the powerful chairman of a U.S. House committee that’s investigating President Donald Trump, died today. The Maryland congressman, 68, had long battled health problems.
    TWO DAYS ONLY!
    Local news creates change. So does your subscription. Get unlimited digital access for over 90% off our usual rate during our Fall Sale.
    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    Bernie Morris
    Bernie Morris was a driving force when the Seattle Metropolitans won the Stanley Cup, but his fortunes changed quickly. Just two years later, he was convicted of Army desertion and sent to Alcatraz, possibly costing Seattle another title. Now there’s a push afoot to get him into the Hockey Hall of Fame. Can you guess when Morris and the Metropolitans ruled? Check your answer and learn about hockey’s heyday in Seattle. (Photo: David Eskenazi Collection)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Nearly 14 million Americans could have Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia by 2060. At a free conference today in Seattle, the Alzheimer’s Foundation aims to tell patients and caregivers how the latest research can help them. Here are some of the group’s tips on keeping your brain healthy.

    An apartment building rising on a rundown site in Pioneer Square marks a milestone. It’s Seattle’s first opportunity zone development, part of a program designed to help poor communities by offering tax breaks for investors. But the system is raising alarm among those who worry about gentrification. Here’s how it works and what the new Canton Lofts will look like.

    A brand-new charter school in Kent has abruptly shut down. Ashé Preparatory Academy is the fourth Washington charter school to close in the past year.

    “It’s one of those games you grow up wanting to be a part of.” Huskies are talking about the immensity of Saturday’s matchup with Oregon. UW’s slim Pac-12 title hopes hang precariously in the balance, and Oregon must win in Husky Stadium to remain in College Football Playoff contention.
    Provided by Providence St. Joseph Health
    Homelessness is not one size fits all, and neither is the solution. Stable, long-term supportive housing is part of the solution, but for the immediate need of getting people off the street, it helps to think in medical terms, like triage.
    WORTH A READ
    Washington shellfish growers are on edge after a judge threw out a federal permit for the industry, saying it doesn’t do enough to protect the environment. What happens now? Growers are hoping they can keep operating while that question gets answered.

    Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says he’ll “always be there” for Earl Thomas, despite the lasting image of Thomas’ middle-finger gesture toward him. Things could get interesting when Thomas returns to Seattle on Sunday in Baltimore Ravens colors.

    Want to escape reality for a bit? “Zombieland: Double Tap” is the perfect October movie, a sequel without equal that has plenty of snark. And there are pleasures to be had in the perfectly cast “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.”

    Imagine being inside Minecraft, with phantoms flying overhead, chickens underfoot and a 30-foot Ender Dragon looming. Welcome to the immersive new Minecraft exhibit that opens Saturday at Seattle’s MoPOP.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Psychotherapists hear what really matters to people, says Seattle-based therapist Rhoda Keladry. She works with teens and their families and says what a lot of people don’t realize is clients have an impact on their counselor, too.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    The Seattle Times editorial board weighs in on two Redmond City Council races. Councilmember Hank Margeson has represented citizens well on the council and the city well on regional boards, and should be returned to Position 3. For Position 1, the board recommends reelecting Hank Myers, because every governing board needs a devil’s advocate, and Myers is that candidate.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    ‘Maleficent: Mistress of Evil’ review: Perfectly cast Angelina Jolie, Michelle Pfeiffer lock horns too briefly
    Seattle’s MoPOP builds large Minecraft exhibit, marking the hit video game’s 10th anniversary
    You recommended your favorite crime fiction. Here’s our take on some of them. | The Plot Thickens

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 56. Low 48. Sunrise 7:30. Sunset 6:17.

    SWE’s Take

    Some good both sides non-partisan journalism this morning, both sides, good job Seattle Times :-)

    Seattle Times failed to mention the Open Border Party impeachment hearings were closed doors to the Populists…that is a BIG omission in my book. It ain’t a legal hearing without both sides present [close door hearings with just the Open Border Party present] and its a dead end waste of time as a result too. This whole impeachment mess with no Constitution Laws governing it means one thing, Trump’s gonna win in 2020, most all see through this charade like glass. Do they think were all buffoons?

  84. 584
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 576

    Just re-stating the obvious for those who easily fall for the Jedi mind trick of repeating nonsense in the hope that people will think it is true.

    If you have real data from a real source without a lot of blather overlayed on top, let’s see it.

    Gene Balk’s piece is not new, but indicative of current trends. Seattle still ranks #2 in national growth. People are following the jobs.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/big-city-growth-slows-across-u-s-but-seattle-still-ranks-no-2-in-2018/

  85. 585

    RE: Deerhawke @ 579

    Thank you Deerhawke. I put a review date on it of the 23rd. I’m supposed to lay flat on my face for 1 day and on my left side for 2 days to keep the air bubble pressing in the direction they want to push the retina back on to my eyeball. :) I think I can likely read my email and talk on the phone if needed. But keeping my head sideways while typing may be a challenge. We’ll see! I’m optimistic. I have backup if needed. We already have a showing request.

  86. 586
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 582

    I wish good health to Ardell and lower house prices for everyone.

  87. 587
    Justme says:

    Net domestic migration to King County (Seattle + suburbs) in 2017 was 458 persons

    Keep that number 458 in mind, and go back and read all the lofty projections of purported population increases, jobs increases, and housing demand you saw in the media in 2016 or 2017. Then compare with reality as provided by the census ACS survey numbers. Then apply a very large amount of skepticism to any and all reports that present lofty projections for 2019 and beyond.

    Reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NETMIGNACS053033

  88. 588
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 581:

    Gene Balk’s piece is not new, but indicative of current trends. Seattle still ranks #2 in national growth. People are following the jobs.

    Just want to say that Seattle population is less than 1/10th the size of the largest city, New York. From 2010 census to 2019, Austin population gains 210,000 compared to Seattle’s 158,000. In fact, all major Texas cities have witnessed tremendous growth, Houston (+260,000), San Antonio (+239,000), Dallas (+182,000), Forth Worth (+173,000) all gain more population than Seattle in the past decade.

    Perhaps Seattle is not that special after all, especially if you take into account housing affordability. And I suspect its future growth will diminish markedly.

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/

  89. 589
  90. 590
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    If 1000 people with money and high paying jobs move here, and 1000 people with less money and less jobs leave, net migration is 0, but housing prices still go up… right?

  91. 591
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 587 – That 1000 wealthy people will improve the housing stock through remodeling and teardowns. So yes, over time, average prices will go up due to nicer homes. Otherwise, if demand = supply, prices are not going anywhere – Econ 101.

  92. 592
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 585

    I already debunked Gene Balk’s errant article (see below). But of course, that does no prevent Deerhawke from reposting the drivel. Below is what I say in the very comment section of the very article that Deerhawke linked. It is just layers upon layers of data misinterpretation and bullshit propaganda being posted and reposted by the same bubble-mongers, over and over again.

    ——————————————————

    justbubble
    4 months ago
    Meanwhile, the bubble-blowing class of real-estate profiteers is busy mis-characterizing the population increase as “15,000 people moved to Seattle”.

    Nope, that did not happen. 15,000 was the population increase (netmigration+births-deaths). I say this with some confidence because the article says the numbers were based on US Census data, which generally does look at the whole picture and not just migration.

    I am still waiting for SeattleTimes to post a proper link to their data source, which I could not find, but meanwhile it can be pointed out that the net migration to King County (Seattle and suburbs) was ** 5932 ** persons in 2016. No numbers available for Seattle City proper AFAIK.

    justbubble
    4 months ago
    In addition to the fact that the numbers are being propaganda-ized by the bubble-blowers and housing-inflation mongers, there is also the problem that these particular 2018 population estimates, even from the US Census Bureau, are not based on a proper survey. I always thought that US Census only used survey-based numbers (Census or ACS), but it turns out that for 2018 they have estimated population as HU * OR, where HU is HousingUnits (from 2018) and OR is OccupationRate (from 2010).

    This is the same highly inaccurate method that Washington OFM uses. The city and county keep track of all new HU being built and torn down, so that number is quite accurate, but they have no way of knowing an accurate OR. We know there are lots of empty new apartments and condos in Seattle and King County. But said 2018 population estimate assumes these housing units are full! Very inaccurate.

    By the way, here is a link that goes directly to the data. Also on that page are links to the methodology documentation.

    https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2018/PEPANNRES/1620000US5363000

  93. 593
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 584

    >> Net domestic migration to King County (Seattle + suburbs) in 2017 was 458 persons

    It’ so quiet around here I think I can hear the moss growing.

  94. 594
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 590
    High paid jobs are moving in and low income people are moving to Tacoma where they belong.

  95. 595
    uwp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 577:

    Any feedback appreciated, especially on the photos as my one good eye was wearing out after 4 hours of photo editing late yesterday.

    I’m not an interior decorator, but it seems like the tall table and stools in the kitchen area would just get in the way. But otherwise, the photos look fine.

  96. 596
    Jon says:

    RE: Erik @ 591

    Man, that was just mean. Quite a snobbish comment.

  97. 597

    RE: Deerhawke @ 579
    Yes Deerhawke

    My prayer just went out for Ardelle’s eye too….hope it helps…

    Your eyes are irreplaceable and its “Game Over” if ya go blind. I hear vitamin C and E mixed together prevents Cataracts, CBD prevents and cures Glaucoma. The vitamin C (1000 mg) and vitamin E (400 IU) mixture is great for curing stress too [it deceases radicals in the blood], try it after a stressful day if you don’t believe me. I read it about in a Repairman Jack novel by J Paul…holistic cures do work.

    Hey…Toastmasters taught me a real estate math formula today on price predictions for 2020:

    B= I/(1-R), i.e., the break even formula for RE investing, where B= Break Even rate of Return, I= inflation and R= Effective Tax Rate [all taxes]…..the bottom line, if politics doesn’t affect/drive this formula I’m a buffoon…LOL….politics is driving federal/local tax rates and COLA is driven by wage increases, politics IOWs…..LOL

    SWE is off topic? How about dead on topic. Let’s hope for high wages and low taxes, our homes’ future value depends on it.

    Hey Bubbleheads, ya got a good real estate topics for a Toastmasters speech?, I can share the evaluation on the blog later.

  98. 598
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 588:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 587 – That 1000 wealthy people will improve the housing stock through remodeling and teardowns. So yes, over time, average prices will go up due to nicer homes. Otherwise, if demand = supply, prices are not going anywhere – Econ 101.

    The 1000 incoming wealthy people will likely increase demand on for-sale houses as is; while the 1,000 not so wealthy departees will likely decrease demand on rentals. Imperfect substitution was an assumption of the problem. Still Econ 101.

  99. 599
    Mikal says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 587 – You were saying that exact same thing 12 years ago. Bought a house yet? I’ve made at least another million on my properties since. If they don’t go up more oh well. But I wouldn’t bet on it. And if they go down in value oh well. It’s the same people wanting a house on Capitol Hill or around Greenlake that will never be able to afford it and bitch about it here. Whatsmyneverbeabletoaffordit.

  100. 600
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Mikal @ 594

    I don’t remember saying that 12 years ago, but I’ll take your word for it. I’ve bought 5 properties in the past 12 years. 4 in Seattle, one in Phoenix AZ. Sold 3, still own 2.
    Why?

  101. 601
  102. 602
    David says:

    By Justme @ 590:
    It’ so quiet around here I think I can hear the moss growing.

    Having just bought a house in Florida, I watched an Egret, Great Blue Heron, Cormorant, and a Raccoon simultaneously fishing in my backyard yesterday. Once the horror nights of Seattle grey are over, I shall return to find a property outside the reaches of the Seattle-man and his mind.

    I’d like to start a campaign to break-up King County into multiple counties. Why just rely on being able to move to Bellevue or Redmond? We need to kill King County hegemony.

  103. 603
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 593:

    The 1000 incoming wealthy people will likely increase demand on for-sale houses as is; while the 1,000 not so wealthy departees will likely decrease demand on rentals. Imperfect substitution was an assumption of the problem. Still Econ 101.

    You are making a big assumption. Gentrification of Seattle neighborhoods are largely due to long time residents leaving the city due to high costs of living. Many recent arrivals, the ‘wealthy’ tech workers, are predominantly renters. You see that in new ‘luxury’ apartments/condos built all over the city. Your assumption has no basis in fact.

  104. 604
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 598 – Who buys the gentrified houses? People with lower incomes? You think the 4 floors over retail going up all over the city is “luxury”?

  105. 605
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 582

    Ardell, my suggestion for you might seem like an unnatural act. How about actually using this health issue as an excuse to … rest.

    For a change.

  106. 606
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 599 – You must be asleep in the past few decades when many previously rundown neighborhoods went through massive transformations. Go read Seattle Times archives to see what some currently sought after neighborhoods looked like 30 years ago. On the Eastside, the rundown houses in Kirkland’s Rose Hill neighborhood are being replaced by million dollar mansions almost overnight.

  107. 607
    Deerhawke says:

    I don’t have the time to do a deep data dive on population growth, so will stick to Gene Balk’s columns for the periodic summary. Unlike some on this forum, he doesn’t have any particular agenda.

    So, only 458 people have moved into all of King County, but somehow tons of rental units are being built– and inducements are down and rents are stable to up. How does that work out? Does that make sense?

    Any time you try to get anywhere in this city or on the East Side, what is your experience? People are using public transport more frequently . Do you find yourself getting places faster because people have all moved out of King County? Or are you finding that there are backups pretty much all the time? Maybe it is just me, but I see a lot of people wacking the steering wheel and cursing while going 5 mph.

    Whenever you use data, recognize that there are often lags in getting final data. In the meantime, you have to use other indicators.

  108. 608

    Pull Up a Chair and Gulp Down Some Yuban [Its on Sale for $5.99 a 37.2 oz jumbo can at WINCO], its Time for:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 18, 2019
    Aerial view of Sammamish
    ‘What are these people doing to earn so much money?’ Here are the top jobs in Sammamish
    The Eastside city tops a list of the nation’s richest when it comes to median income. You wouldn’t have trouble guessing at some of the most common jobs there, but others aren’t in fields that most of us would think of as lucrative. FYI Guy goes inside the record-setting city’s job market — and also explains why Mercer Island didn’t make the list of high-income cities. Meanwhile, new data reveals what it takes to land in the top 1% these days. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Authorities in Seattle have seized a cache of guns from a man thought to be leading a chapter of one of the most violent extremist groups in the nation. Kaleb J. Cole “was preparing for a race war” when the guns were seized in Snohomish County, a prosecutor said yesterday.

    Seattle’s deadly crane collapse was “totally avoidable,” state officials said as they faulted three companies for the plunge that killed four people on one of the city’s busiest streets in April. Workers left the tower crane vulnerable to wind when they removed pins too early, according to the findings. Officials don’t have a way to make companies stop doing that.

    You won’t be able to recycle plastic bags in Seattle or King County, starting next year. They’re creating tangled messes at local recycling centers. The county has suggestions on what to do with them instead.

    The world’s first all-female spacewalking team made history high above Earth today. NASA astronauts Christina Koch and Jessica Meir floated out of the International Space Station to fix a broken part.

    The White House withheld aid to pressure Ukraine to further President Donald Trump’s political interests, acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said yesterday. Then, as a storm erupted, he took back his declaration. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has taken charge of a dramatic photo that Trump meant to be humiliating.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    A FEW HAUNTS TO CHECK OUT
    Sketch of Nile Nightmares Haunted House
    The “scream team” at Nile Nightmares Haunted House in Mountlake Terrace is ready to scare the wits out of you. Seattle Sketcher steadied his shaking hands long enough to bring us this peek. It’s just one of the fun things you can do this weekend, from taking a haunted tour of a chocolate factory to making this cute and creepy recipe for apple jack o’lanterns. (Illustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Accusations over unpaid taxes and traffic tickets are flying in the race between Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold and challenger Phillip Tavel. Let’s not lose sight of what they think about the city’s crucial issues. Want more ballot help? Here’s our 2019 voter guide.

    The Huskies face a tall order tomorrow: Disarm an elite Oregon defense that has allowed a whopping one touchdown in the past five games. Here’s how Washington needs to do this, plus some key factors to watch.

    If you have student loans and can’t get the public service loan forgiveness you were promised, Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson wants to hear from you. A tiny fraction of applicants have been approved, and Ferguson says that’s not fair. Also, know that the program comes with risks.

    Your phone’s digital wallet means it’s almost possible to get through the week without fumbling for cash or cards. But all the options can be mind-boggling. Know how to make the most of them while keeping your information secure.
    Provided by Cascadia Innovation Corridor
    The answer to traffic gridlock in our region could be high-speed rail. A new project could move 32,000 people an hour without delays and help congestion, the environment, affordable housing and employment. See how it could work.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    For the Redmond City Council, The Seattle Times editorial board recommends Vanessa Kritzer, whose experience as a planning-commission member gives her an edge, for Position 5. And the best candidate for Position 9 is incumbent David Carson.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? Happy hours, crime fiction, beer science and more
    5 movies, including the ‘Maleficent’ sequel, opens Oct. 18 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    This Halloween, let the ‘scream team’ at Nile Nightmares Haunted House scare the wits out of you

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 53. Low 47. Sunrise 7:32. Sunset 6:16.

    SWE’s Take:

    Now the top 1% of household incomes is deemed a Seattle goal? Does that mean ya need the top 1% household income to live here too? LOL

    Gosh that crummy list of 2019 Hollywood Fall movies means one thing, the local haunted houses are the preferred venue now? But what if you’re not a kid and that sounds lame too? LOL, eat MASS snack candy and shut-up…grow some arm muscles and scrape a big $15 pumpkin shell out for carving. You can roast the seeds after you’ve chopped pumpkin crud all over the table….that should take a couple hours, with cleanup.

  109. 609

    RE: Justme @ 584
    Yes Justme

    Undocumented Immigrants aren’t documented, so how many have left? Shoulders shrug?

    Another Halloween ghost group leaving Seattle can’t be counted either? Millennials leaving Seattle in groves? They leave their parents home and we know how many? LOL

    https://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/article/Millennials-boomers-homeownership-seattle-market-13503792.php

    Help wanted signs are all over the place now, another sign of Seattle shrinking?

  110. 610
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 602

    >>So, only 458 people have moved into all of King County, but somehow tons of rental units are being built– and inducements are down and rents are stable to up. How does that work out? Does that make sense?

    It is all easy to explain: The endless REIC propaganda and a desperate search for yield caused overbuilding of housing.

    Who says inducements (e.g. 1 month free rent) is down? Another REIC source with an agenda!

    Who says rents are stable? Some website that publishes LIST prices of the MOST EXPENSIVE apartments,declares these these numbers as representative of rent, and without accounting for the 8.33% reduction in rent that a free month of rent represents!

    Who keeps repeating the lies? Bubble-mongers.

  111. 611
    Deerhawke says:

    Further thoughts on population growth in King County.

    1) I really do not believe that given the number of condos and apartments being built in King County that we are seeing population drop or even level out.

    2) But if (as I do believe) population growth in King County is slowing from the surge in 2014-2017, then it is because people are moving north to Snohomish (and even Skagit) and south to Pierce (and even Thurston).

    3) So maybe we just need to redefine what we think of as the Puget Sound economy.

    My god-daughter and her fiancee bought a place in Everett because they couldn’t afford anything in King County. A year later they went through an interview process and moved their employment north as well. After building some equity, they hope to buy a place in Edmonds in a few years when they start their family. I think this is a fairly normal example of regional demographic trends.

  112. 612
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 602 – On population, the best data we have is probably from the census bureau. That said, traffic pattern is highly correlated to employment. During the Great Recession, traffic congestions disappeared overnight. Malls were deserted. The population didn’t shrink. More people doubled up or stayed with family during the recession. Today, many are getting their own apartments and leasing new cars. As soon as the next recession hits, rents will collapse and vacancies increase, just like the last one. So use real data (i.e. science) if you want to talk about population.

  113. 613
    Deerhawke says:

    I am sure that for some of the luxury apartments that are just now opening their doors and have 100+ units to fill, they will offer an inducement. But probably half a month not a full month. And you are also looking at $3.25 to $3.75 per foot, plus parking fee, plus pet fee, plus club fee, plus this and that. And I think you have to ask for the inducement. I am not seeing any inducement signs out in front of new buildings these days like in 2017.

  114. 614
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 606

    >> 3) So maybe we just need to redefine what we think of as the Puget Sound economy.

    Redefining “what we think of as the Puget Sound economy” is not going to support high house prices in Green Lake, Seattle. Have you told your customers that you are going to re-define the value of the property they bought from you? And that you are moving your teardown speculation to greener pastures than Green Lake?

  115. 615
    OA says:

    Anyone here successfully dispute their tax assessment (King County) on a house? I’m curious how the process looks like, and any tips you can offer.

    I built a house in Fall City (my primary residence) this past year and the tax assessment value is way over what I would be able to sell it for today.

    Any suggestions would be appreciated, thanks!

  116. 616
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 607

    Agreed and point well taken. But population stats are always imprecise and backward-looking because data is

    1) notoriously slow in arriving in any form
    2) only truly close after a census, but even then needs to be statistically augmented
    3) always an estimate (unlike in, say, North Korea where everyone has an assigned place)

    So annual statistics are always a guess on the basis of housing units built and occupied, voting rolls, number of driver’s licenses applied for, school rolls, etc. It is never precise, but I would imagine that with computer technology, we have a much better idea than we did in the past. Or at least we could have a better idea than in the past if we chose to use that technology on the data.

    But you are right that traffic is affected by employment as well as by population. I curse the traffic daily, but know that continual heavy traffic means the area has strong employment growth as well as population growth.

    And when you say that people did not leave the area during the last recession, you are right. There were less of them on the road, but they stayed around here. That is not the case in other regions. Recessions make people leave their hometowns and head for places like Seattle and Bellevue.

  117. 617
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: OA @ 610

    I have done it, but on the basis of what I had just purchased the home for. Friends in situations like yours found a recent appraisal and used that same format to put together a spreadsheet using the different valuation methodologies.

    If you got a loan from a bank and the appraisal is conservative, that is also a good piece of documentation for your case.

    Ultimately it is about marshaling data from nearby, recent comps and making a persuasive case.

  118. 618
    Joe says:

    I was driving around in Redmond yesterday. Was absolutely amazed at all the new condos/apts still being built, with new holes still being dug. There must have been 10-15 big apartment complexes that went up in the last 3 years. Most of it replaced old retail space that was tore down, but some was built on what little available land there is.

    I estimate Redmond has doubled its apartment capacity in five years. I assume a lot of it is related to people coming to the US on temporary work visas. What happens when the temp hiring stops? Temp hiring is the first to go in a recession.

  119. 619
    Justme says:

    Propaganda-busting

    Real-estate propaganda: Highly paid techies move into King County (Seattle+burbs), increasing wealth and population? Um, NO. The most recent data from IRS (2015-2016) shows that the average taxpayer moving in made $136/year more than the taxpayer moving out. #propagandabusting

    King County (Seattle + suburbs), Washington state, AGI = Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer, most recent available IRS data (2015-2016).

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1185270248770949120

    KC/WA, moving in: ave.AGI $79,392 num.returns 59,273 num.exemptions 96,609
    KC/WA, moving out: ave.AGI $79,256 num.returns 55,816 num.exemptions 97,290

    The real-estate propaganda has been that high earners are moving in, occupying new high-paying tech jobs, and that the population has been rising rapidly. But wait, the incoming taxpayers are averaging only $136/year more than the ones that left, and only 3457 more taxpayers arrived than left.

    Conclusion: The Seattle housing price boom and apartment building boom is largely a psychologically driven phenomenon. There is hardly any substance behind it. Only relentless propaganda, resulting seller strikes and buying panics, low mortgage rates and wishful thinking has kept the bubble going. Buyers, keep striking. Sellers, get out while you can.

    Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2015-2016 file 1516wa.xls

    BOOM !!

  120. 620
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 608 – They are testing pop up hotels in these empty overpriced air boxes. Kinda like WeWork. Probably end in the same fate. Bubbles are everywhere.
    “Seattle is the ideal city to test the waters of WhyHotel’s model. First of all, you have to consider that techcompanies, like Amazon and Microsoft, entice young employees, who are often fresh out of college and might not be able to afford something permanent, to move out to the city to pursue their dreams of working for big tech. In addition, Seattle’s tourism industry has been booming— with statistics released by Visit Seattle last year that illustrated the city’s eighth consecutive year of record tourism.” When asked if this blueprint would work elsewhere, Kamen responded, “We believe our model works well in most urban cores and stay markets anchored in strong business drivers, such as technology, government, or healthcare.” https://www.multifamilybiz.com/News/9014/Multifamily_Operators_Move_Past_the_Fear_Point_As_

  121. 621
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 591

    >>High paid jobs are moving in and low income people are moving to Tacoma where they belong.

    Yo, Erik. That’s just propaganda. I just posted facts and numbers from the IRS for boom-year 2016. Read it and weep.

    RE: Justme @ 614

  122. 622
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 611 – We have to be careful to project (speculate) population based on housing units being built. Property markets go thru boom (overbuilt) and bust cycle. In the latest example, WeWork has $47B in lease commitments. Hmm… how many (new) office buildings are leased by WeWork here? Perhaps we can look forward to an oversupply of office buildings in the next year or two. Appearance can be fleeting… If you (Erik!) think property market will continue to zoom indefinitely, you are setting yourself up for an epic fail.

  123. 623
    OA says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 612

    Thanks, were you successful in your dispute(s)? What about your friends?

    I’m building my case at the moment, and it’s pretty evident that they over-valued it by $200-250k.

  124. 624
    OA says:

    RE: Justme @ 614

    I’ve asked you before whether you own or rent and you never answered. It’s obvious that you are renting and that you’re priced out and doing anything you can to justify why prices are so high and will come crashing down. There’s nothing wrong with not buying in 2011-2015 when prices were still somewhat affordable because even at that point many thought they would decrease, but the great lengths that you go to attack others that even slightly disagree with you is pathetic.

    Fact of the matter is that living here is really expensive, seems like everything (even outside of real estate) is more expensive (groceries, etc.). Blaming this on some propaganda is pointless and baseless. The only people that agree with you here are the ones in the same position as you are.

    I’ve said here in the past that even though I own my home, if prices significantly decrease then I’m buying more property and accumulating. If they continue to increase…well….then they will increase…The market will do what the market will do. I’m not gonna sit here and pretend I know where the market is going.

  125. 625
    Juststoppedby says:

    Redfin keeps track of homebuyers that are moving from one city to another.

    Seattle isn’t in the top 10 cities for the Moving To category.

    In fact, it’s all the way down at number eight in terms of people Moving From:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/q3-2019-housing-migration-report/

    Big shift in direction year over year, BTW.

  126. 626
    Eastsider says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 620:

    Big shift in direction year over year, BTW.

    Yes, this is the kind of data we should be looking for. Interesting that Seattle went from a net inflow in Q3 2018 to a net outflow in Q3 2019. I guess we will read about it in next years Seattle Times story. It’s clear that when housing costs become unbearable, (rational) people move out!

  127. 627
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 602
    Great point!

  128. 628
  129. 629
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 617
    Why do you believe I think the market will go up indefinitely? I’ve been pretty vocal of how I think the next major downturn will be 2024. I don’t really pay much attention to the small bumps like we just had. There are typically 2 bears before a crash. I don’t really care much about those bears because I’ll just sit tight until they are over in a year or two.

    I just would guess prices in Seattle will go up as rates go down. Real estate prices in Seattle could stay flat, but I doubt it.

    I’ve adjusted my approach to flipping because we are getting closer to the next major crash. Also, investors are getting scared and that means opportunity to scoop up a house in Seattle or the Eastside for a discount. The opportunity in Seattle real estate is to buy when everyone else is scared and sell when everyone else is confident.

  130. 630
    Any says:

    RE: Joe @ 613

    Joe, I drive by all those new Redmond apartments pretty often. A lot of new ones, yes. And a lot of them remain empty, for sure.

    Perhaps builders were expanding with expectations of future growth at the same rate that the area had seen in the early half of this decade. But as can be seen in Tim’s article linked above, the net population of the area has slowed / stopped growing (or even now shrinking for a quarter…) I don’t think all that new construction indicates that the demand will be there to fill it anytime soon. Most of it was started / planned a few years ago when the cloud hiring boom was at its peak. It may have finally slowed down.

  131. 631
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 601
    In case you’ve forgotten, you were claiming in post 589 that an equivalent number of wealthier people replacing less well off people would not move the bar except for making the houses nicer over time. Now you’re talking massive transitions and million dollar mansions going up almost overnight. Those buyers tend to have money. And residents of the teardowns they replace are more often renters. Everybody knows that.

    Look back 30 years, and realize that lot prices now often meet or beat whole house prices then. It’s the money.

  132. 632
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 626:

    And residents of the teardowns they replace are more often renters. Everybody knows that.

    How about everybody knows you have no clue? Show me the money!

  133. 633
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: OA @ 618

    I was successful in disputing my property tax. At the time I bought the house it had been on the market for 130 days. i made the case that the house had been amply exposed to the market. I documented the number of open houses. I documented the number of price reductions. My offer was 15% below asking— which was right at the appraised value. I made the point that literally hundreds of people and agents had looked at the house. The market had spoken. It was an Ipso-facto argument. The appraisal was reduced by 15% to purchase price.

    Other friends/acquaintances followed my advice and also succeeded. They did it by doing this:
    1) Tell them what you are going to tell them.
    2) Tell them. And document, document, document the hell out of it— like if you were a boring professional appraiser.
    3) Summarize by telling them what you told them

  134. 634
    sfrz says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 621 – That Boeing money is going up in smoke. Those buy backs and the corruption have killed this company. There will be a nice selection in Edmonds, Mukilteo, Renton. That’s 80k+ jobs in the area that are very close to a MAJOR disruption. The biggest employer in the area with many with specialty companies that feed into the production flow (electrical engineers, seat designers, testers, etc.). Ditch the 737 turd bird. A knock out punch to the credibility and safety of Seattle’s biggest asset. with major reverberation. Could this even cause the market to crash? Big talk tonight at a Halloween party on Mercer Island.

    “A Boeing test pilot complained in one of the messages that a flight control system, known as MCAS, was difficult to control, according to the messages, obtained by NBC News.

    “It’s running rampant in the sim on me”, the pilot, Mark Forkner, Boeing’s former chief technical pilot, said in 2016 to a colleague, referring to the simulator, according to the transcript. “Granted, I suck at flying, but even this was egregious.”

    His colleague replied that they would have to update the description of the system.

    “So I basically lied to regulators (unknowingly),” read Forkner’s reply. Forkner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    And now Southwest Pilots Union has come out swinging, confirming that Mark Forkner is a Southwest aviator and blasting Boeing for “misleading” the FAA, saying that Boeing’s “fraud” put “the flying public at risk.” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boeing-shares-battered-after-faa-demands-explanation-misleading-messages

  135. 635
    Eastsider says:

    RE: sfrz @ 629 – The text messages about the faulty MCAS might have been written during testing and the final system might have addressed those (engineering) concerns. We don’t know at this point. I would keep an eye on upcoming regulatory approvals, especially from Australia.

  136. 636
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 627 – One of the dynamics of the rental house market is that it is generally more profitable to rent lower end or aged properties. Tenants have limited rent budgets, and they won’t maintain it as well as they would their own property- and it doesn’t pay for you to maintain it as well as your own home.

    It takes a lot of pressure to make a lot with habitable house worth equal or less than the lot alone. Sometimes this can be a higher use, but house for house replacement means serious change is going on. It necessarily means there is more money looking for housing in the neighborhood.

    Maybe I know this because we had perfectly good rentals sell for redevelopment when I was a kid, or maybe because I have some houses positioned for that right now. But I think most kids in high school also knew this, and it was certainly no surprise when we rented our first house. Try and catch up.

  137. 637
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 631 – Again, a lot of speculations and no facts. Maybe you should ask Deerhawke about the teardown houses he has bought over last 10 years. I bet far more owners than landlords. I actually know a thing or two. Unlike you.

  138. 638
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 632 -These aren’t speculations. These are factual observations from actually renting out houses, and having the facts on occasionally selling for redevelopment. And knowing other people in real estate. The tippy top infill might be more centered in more owners, but we were talking about the market as a whole.

    I think you know a lot about being a property virgin.

  139. 639

    Great Blogs All I Enjoyed Reading Them All Lately

    To change the subject to our real estate tool, the laptop, changes for 2020:

    Windows 7 users [there’s still 37 million of them today BTW] will lose MSFT security patch support on their O/S by Jan 2020. Windows 7 will still work after Jan 2020, except with more security risk [whatever that means, Hades, viruses got into my computer with patch support and working virus S/W anyway, so I ask the million dollar question….what difference does it really make?]

    I’m OK with my working McAffee virus S/W and Windows 7 Professional; but I’m not running a business risk storage file on my computer since I retired. So if I lose my C-drive files, who cares.

    If you have a list of Firefox browser bookmarks [I include user website IDs and P/Ws in the browser bookmark property code], get this information on a piece of paper before you get a new Windows 10 laptop [it will be lost]. The rest of your files will be lost when you get the new computer O/S upgrade and worse yet your old key numbers on S/W that worked are usually lost on package computers [its only available on the S/W package you don’t have or lost], so Windows upgrades’ downloads will make getting online horribly time consuming [or impossible], ask an IT. So what, my photos are saved on my camera memory anyway and I keep no business office C-drive files basically anyway. I imagine nothing will work right if you try to upgrade to Windows 10 on your old Windows 7, especially with embedded S/W key numbers….if it runs don’t fix it. If it blue screens [crashes], it may have happenned anyway on any computer. I may switch to a pad W/O Office 2016 S/W, if all else fails…LOL…but that may be 5 years from now too.

    The backup file costs for your Windows 7 is not cheap, try $100-300/yr [the cost of an eBay refurbished Windows 2010 laptop with all the Office Word bells and whistles], so unless you have business file storage needs, its just too costly versus “roll the dice” and chance it until it potentially crashes, then replace the computer. Hades when they upgraded to Windows 2007 from XP, I lost all my C-drive files anyway….LOL

    Good Luck, that’s my plan. Did you know there are many users still on XP too…LOL

  140. 640

    RE: Deerhawke @ 628
    My Friend in Snohomish County Challenged Her Property Tax Too

    She got a her own property appraiser and included sweetheart neighborhood prices in her estimate to the court. She won without a hearing and got several years of “overpaid” property taxes back to boot… a BIG Check. She did this without an attorney too.

    Nobody challenges it because they think “property tax” assessed value hearings are difficult to win, they aren’t at all.

  141. 641
    Deerhawke says:

    By OA @ 623:

    Interesting article from Geekwire.

    https://www.geekwire.com/2019/analysis-seattle-startup-ecosystem-poised-unprecedented-acceleration-company-creation/

    Awesome article. Really well researched and written. Quite detailed and specific.

    Justme you should give this a miss. It will make you seriously ill.

  142. 642
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 636

    Just curious, was any of that going on while Seattle went to a net outflow of homebuyers?

    Again, Redfin keeps track of homebuyers that are moving from one city to another.

    Seattle is all the way down at number eight in terms of people Moving From:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/q3-2019-housing-migration-report/

    Big shift in direction year over year, BTW.

  143. 643
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 632

    I have bought teardowns for single family redevelopment and multfamily development. Generally they are in truly terrible shape and have been neglected to the point that they hardly constitute housing anymore. Shooting galleries, crack dens, extreme hoarder houses, places where the roof has long since stopped keeping the rain out, places where mold has completely taken over, crumbling river-rock foundations, foundations installed over/next to a spring, etc. These places need a track-hoe not a nice remodel.

    But there are times when a change in zoning and/or a change in the perceived value of the neighborhood means that perfectly good housing is sacrificed to greater density. It is the exception rather than the rule.

  144. 644
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 636 – Jacob Colker is a cheerleader for more Yellen bucks. He raises VC funds. He is a government welfare queen. This market is addicted to more monetary fentanyl. This will end in disaster. So, it is well written for the glass if half full agenda.

    “Chamath Palihapitiya, one of Silicon Valley’s most outspoken tech investors, doubled down on calling the venture capital and tech start-up economy a Ponzi scheme on Wednesday.

    In a letter released by Social Capital, his venture firm, Palihapitiya wrote that “the dynamics we’ve entered is, in many ways, creating a dangerous, high stakes Ponzi scheme” and a “bizarre Ponzi balloon.” “We are, make no mistake … in the middle of an enormous multivariate kind of Ponzi scheme,” Palihapitiya said at a San Francisco conference three weeks ago.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/palihapitiya-venture-capital-created-a-bizarre-ponzi-balloon.html

  145. 645
    sfrz says:

    RE: sfrz @ 639 – “Veteran Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur and Stanford and Columbia academic Steve Blank has probably summed up the current environment best: “VCs won’t simply admit that they’re in a giant Ponzi scheme. They have to play along, because they’ve taken money from their investors, and their investors expect a certain return, but it’s no longer an honest game.””
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-vc-bubble-is-going-to-burst-51553077853

  146. 646
    whatsmyname says:

    *****WEEKEND UPDATE*****
    It’s looking less and less likely that inventory will rise to 4,000 this weekend, but trends be darned, maybe next weekend.

    On the multi-family front, bubble bears will be looking at newer and farther afield apartments as it gets less fun to report on those near SLU. Don’t be alarmed if you see someone peeping in your window. It is most likely a stable, non-perverted, bear just looking for vacancies.

  147. 647
    richard says:

    RE: OA @ 623 – geekwire is fanboy and cheer leader of local job growth and housing market. you take his word too serious.

  148. 648
    OA says:

    RE: richard @ 642

    I take it too seriously by posting the link and saying that it’s an “interesting” article? Lol.

    Read my post @619, I’m not going to say that I’m not biased, but I’m definitely not a cheerleader for either side on this blog. I study the market and try to do what benefits me, I’m not in the predicting business.

  149. 649
    Justme says:

    weekend mock-date

    I’m completely fascinated by the IRS AGI (income) and migration taxpayer data that I stumbled upon, and have spent my free time digging into it. Hence no weekend update inventory graphs, but inventory is sliding down earlier than last year. More re-fi than re-sale, still, it seems.

    But the real news is that all the population and jobs hype from 2016 has been proven to be false, and this is worth repeating:

    The real-estate propaganda has been that high earners are moving into King County, occupying new high-paying tech jobs, and that the population has been rising rapidly. But wait, the incoming taxpayer AGI is averaging only **$136/year** more than the ones that left, and only **3457** more taxpayers arrived than left. Wow. That’s a far cry from the pi-in-the-sky population and income numbers that the propagandistas were posting, is it not?

    KC/WA, moving in: ave.AGI $79,392 num.returns 59,273 num.exemptions 96,609
    KC/WA, moving out: ave.AGI $79,256 num.returns 55,816 num.exemptions 97,290

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1185270248770949120

    Bubble-mongers have been trying to bury this story in their usual daily jammering about this , that and the other thing. But the tax data is explosive.

    PS: Lots of good stuff by Joe, Eastsider, sfraz, Justpassingby, richard and others the last several days!

  150. 650
    richard says:

    just back from a few open houses in bellevue. all i saw are chinese. indian and white high tech workers seems in retreating mode. am i seeing a chinese-as-sole-marginal-buyer saga or just a coincidence. “continung job growth”story seems not panning out in terms of buyer race diversity. a pscycoloy cool down? recession fear?

  151. 651

    RE: richard @ 645
    Yes, I’d Say Its a Mixed Bag

    Lots of help wanted in the $10-15/hr range around Seattle as “apparent” inexperienced/unskilled worker Millennial Flight and avg household per capita incomes with just 1.2x$40K/yr per capita based households [this is basically true Nationally too] leave this high “R” [R= % of gross income on all taxation of any kind per year, approx 40%], factor Seattle area. These groups include folks with college degrees too.

    The inflation”I” is low and so are mortgage interest rates, but IMO, its “R” that’s hurting RE investment profit break even point [B= Break Even on investment], as low COLA and low price gains lose their luster. We haven’t mentioned maintenance and upkeep either.

    So tracking “enough” good help wanted signs for any per capita pay in the house buying ranges, i.e., “$100-150K/yr to buy” and “$80-120K/yr to rent” are just “ghost spirits” for Halloween. The data is IMO mostly shooting from the hip with no evidence. In that case [actual hiring in documented numbers for $100K/yr incomes], I assume it likely doesn’t exist then. Correct me if you have a differing opinion, I’d like it explained in detail too, thanx :-)

  152. 652

    Did You Get Your Increased “R” Factor Voter Pamphlet Yet?

    The taxation bills previously approved by the Wash St house politicians all involve long-term taxation approvals, some exceed a billion per bill. The godsend to increasing the Washington State “R” is the $30 license plate Initiative [Tim Eyeman?], that’s about $300/yr less than my last tab fees. Vote yes on it. LOL

  153. 653
    sfrz says:

    Boeing meeting today in San Antonio.
    “The meetings prompted speculation within the company that a significant number of jobs may be cut.They come amid the ongoing investigations into the aircraft after two fatal crashes and an increased financial burden following a safety ban of the jet, the report said.

    Boeing may have to decrease its monthly production if regulators decide to further delay the resumption of the Max’s services, even after the planemaker told suppliers it plans to increase its output to a record high next year, Reuters said.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-20/boeing-board-to-meet-executives-on-737-max-jets-reuters-says

  154. 654
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 644 – Cool. While you were spending all your free time digging into this tax migration information, did you dig into the methodology part where they explain that the 2015-2016 refers to filing dates, and are geared to 2014 and 2015 earnings? Because this would probably not have anything to do with the “population and jobs hype from 2016”, (statistics not being a time travel thing and all).

    Since this was about the change from 2014 to 2015, I did go back exactly 4 years to see what the representations around this blog were all about in Oct. 2015. I didn’t see much positive about jobs and the economy, except that Amazon was hiring a bunch of temporary seasonal warehouse workers. The housing market was, however, booming, (or as I would say, recovering). Several posters thought that the $490k median house price signaled that we were deep into Bubble 2.

    I was surprised at the 3,547 net inflow, but it was 2015 after all. Then, I realized that number was after a net outflow of 3,928 to Snohomish County and 3,028 to Pierce County, (they make that data very convenient). So the metro was up 10,000+ even then. That seemed more intuitively correct.

    Also, among the many caveats disclosed, they called out that the migrant status was determined by the filing address, explicitly mentioning that the returns did not necessarily tie to the place that the money was made, and that all the earnings for some migrant status returns might all have been made at the prior location. To be fair I always like to assume a reasonable symmetry in distribution over the population, simplified to a general representation of 1 year in each location. Problem there is we are comparing:
    1 year earnings in Seattle plus 1 year earnings elsewhere for outbound to
    1 year earnings elsewhere plus 1 year earning in Seattle for the inbound.
    You can quickly see where this doesn’t explain the difference between earnings in Seattle and elsewhere too well.

    My AGI per return is slightly different, although in that $79k range. But here is where it gets weird. King County non-migrants count 837,662 returns and $101,878,356,000 in AGI – Thats like $126K per year per tax return for non-migrants. Clearly it pays to stay; at least if you believe in our analysis.

    That’s my 20 minutes with the data. What else did you find.

  155. 655
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 649
    That’s an awful lot of calculating just to get to some directional information that is four years old.

    Wouldn’t the numbers from the Redfin article be both clearer and more timely ( where Seattle is one of the top cities in the country for net outflows)?

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/q3-2019-housing-migration

  156. 656
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 650 – It’s really very little calculating if you do it on a spreadsheet, and not really that many numbers. That part took about 5 minutes. And the 4 years old thing is something that I was trying to surface; so thanks for noticing.

    The Redfin numbers are not people moving from a locale. They are people making queries into housing prices at other locales. According to this theory, I would be outflowing to 8 different cities, while in fact, I am looking at market comparison data, but staying right here. The Seattle net outflow is less than 1400, and I am probably 8 of them. I don’t know what the hit ratio is, but I am guessing it’s a pretty small number given the size of the maximum potential.

  157. 657
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 651 – Redfin migration report is not some useless/random data. “The results correlated closely to actual purchases of Redfin home-buying customers made within and across metros.” – Redfin. According to the data, there is a net outflow of people looking to leave Seattle today.

  158. 658
    Eastsider says:

    Redfin Data Center has a lot of interesting data that no one has talked about here.

    For example,
    YoY median sales price for existing homes in Seattle was up .9% in July 2019, but declined -7.1% for new constructions.

    Seattle ranks near the bottom on affordability at 31.7% compared to Denver 58.4%, Tacoma 59.1%, Portland 61.9%, Austin 79.9%, and Philadelphia 81.9%.

    Seattle is the most difficult city in the country to ‘win’ (buy) a house.

    No wonder more people are looking to move out (“net-outflow”).

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

  159. 659
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 652:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 651 – Redfin migration report is not some useless/random data. “The results correlated closely to actual purchases of Redfin home-buying customers made within and across metros.” – Redfin. According to the data, there is a net outflow of people looking to leave Seattle today.

    The numbers are stated to be Redfin users making queries, so what is the close correlation to purchases by Redfin customers? It’s not 1 to 1. You and I are proof of that. And really, what company captures even 1 of 2 people that have contact? Is it 1 of 5, but with similar percentages within and across metros? 1 of 10? If we don’t know that, what do we know? How many would never be a position to purchase if they stayed here, and do they only affect the rental market here?

    By Eastsider @ 653:

    Seattle is the most difficult city in the country to ‘win’ (buy) a house.

    Justme is clearly mismanaging the buyer strike.

  160. 660
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 654 – When their data is against your position, you ridicule them. When their data supports your narrative, you endorse them. Oh sure, your are going to explain why you are consistent and principled next…

  161. 661
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 655 – I am not ridiculing them. I do not know what the statement regarding correlation technically means, and how it should be interpreted in numbers of houses. I think you don’t either.

    I think the statement about difficulty in buying here fits very poorly with your overall message. But I was glad to see it.

  162. 662
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 644:

    […] no weekend update inventory graphs, but inventory is sliding down earlier than last year. More re-fi than re-sale, still, it seems.

    But the real news is that all the population and jobs hype from 2016 has been proven to be false… [blah blah blah]

    It’s so weird that once the inventory trends move away from your desired result, the inventory tracker is no longer the “real news.” It’s kinda like when the 10-year was going to 3%, and it was HUGE NEWS (until it wasn’t). Or whichever local company’s stock is down that day (but up the next). Or how King County is miscalculating population growth (they’re ALL in on the conspiracy!).

    There will always be some reason the sky is falling.

    UWP’s Tracking the Inventory Tracker update:
    Inventory down almost 20% YOY. Justme’s dreams of 7k inventory in 2019 are disappearing quicker than the fabled Buyers’ Strike.

  163. 663
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 653

    >>Seattle is the most difficult city in the country to ‘win’ (buy) a house.
    >> No wonder more people are looking to move out (“net-outflow”).

    Said in another way, Seattle is the most overpriced housing market in the country. Even *I* am slightly surprised to hear that.

    But bubble-mongers are an illogical bunch. They think that “most overpriced” means you (not they) should buy! now! at or near the peak of prices. If it is so overpriced, clearly it must be very valuable!

    Thanks a lot for the data.

  164. 664
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 657 – I don’t know if the most competitive market is necessarily the most overpriced, but time will tell. Anyway, I don’t think you should buy now. You were too clever to buy at $490; why would you ever buy around $670?

    I was really hoping you could look at post 649. Since you’ve been devoting your free time to the IRS migration data, I thought you might be able to add some context to what I wrote. I obviously had very little time to work it.

  165. 665
    Notme says:

    Landlord’s vacant stare…
    where are all the rich techies?
    but they never came

    -a why-oh-why-did-I-believe-the-propaganda bubble haiku

  166. 666
    Notme says:

    It is worth it ’cause
    it is so expensive ’cause
    it is worth it, ’cause …

    -a circular-housing-inflation-logic bubble haiku

  167. 667
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 656:

    I think the statement about difficulty in buying here fits very poorly with your overall message. But I was glad to see it.

    Unaffordability and difficulty in buying go hand in hand. The days of multiple bids are long gone. And SFH spec builders are hurting… enough said.

    P.s. Prior to the last crash, Miami condos were super ‘competitive’. People lined up for days to buy a condo. Just saying.

  168. 668
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 661 – According to FRED, Miami home prices tripled in the eight years before the crash. Do you think that will happen here?

  169. 669
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 661

    “ And SFH spec builders are hurting… enough said.”

    Where did you find this data? Or are you taking this from the number of building permits being issued? Or the stock price of Toll Brothers? Reference?

  170. 670

    RE: sfrz @ 648
    Boeing Stock Dropped 4+% In a Day Today

    Its dragging down the DOW increases everywhere else.

  171. 671

    Good Blogs All, I Enjoyed Reading Them

    Everyone on Seattle Bubble should feel proud that all voices matter, because even those that oppose your opinion, make you think.

    Time to Wake Up With a Fresh Mug of Yuban and:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, October 21, 2019
    6,000 pounds of dog poop a day: Kirkland locked in dirty war
    How to solve a nasty problem with unscooped doo-doo? Kirkland is attacking the problem on multiple fronts, including the deployment of volunteer poop monitors who wield little yellow flags as weapons. Their message to dog owners: Think before you stink. And it actually seems to be working. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Authorities are looking for robbers who tied up eight people at Bob’s Burgers & Teriyaki in SeaTac over the weekend. The robbers stole money, car keys and jewelry, then fled in a customer’s car, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office.

    Group Health Cooperative in Seattle is accused of bilking Medicare out of millions. A former billing manager has filed a federal lawsuit against one of the nation’s oldest nonprofit health insurance plans. Its members are now part of Kaiser Permanente, which says its leaders believe Group Health complied with the law.

    Boeing insists that a 2016 instant-message chat between senior pilots on the 737 MAX program doesn’t mean the company had prior knowledge of flaws that would play a major role in two deadly crashes. Widespread outrage followed revelations of the chat, which included a pilot’s note about the flight-control system “running rampant in the sim.” Boeing blames a problem with the simulator.

    Washington state’s next disaster might not be a quake or a flood, some city leaders say. They’re bracing for a potential “massive impact” if voters slash car-tab taxes with Tim Eyman’s Initiative 976. Here’s a breakdown of the cuts. And with this issue on the ballot again, we’ve created a calculator to estimate how big your Sound Transit tax bill will be. More:

    Amazon’s unprecedented spending on Seattle politics includes a spate of donations from Jeff Bezos’ “S Team.”
    One Seattle street climbs through the heart of the City Council race between Jim Pugel and Andrew Lewis. Compare where all the council candidates stand on key issues.
    Should anything be done about airplanes roaring overhead? That’s among the issues in a heated race for Seattle’s port commission.
    Why are the faces behind the campaign to reject affirmative action nearly all Asian American? Columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes that the fight over Referendum 88 has taken an appallingly Orwellian turn.
    Brush up on the candidates and issues in our voter guide.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Working as a Seattle park concierge is almost nothing like dispensing advice at a high-end hotel. For Chuck Scott, gingerly moving homeless people along is part of the workday — “I try to treat them as extended family” — and the bucks aren’t big. But there are things to love about the job.

    Some gun-rights advocates are so frustrated over Washington’s new restrictions, they’re looking hard at their options for pushing back — including a “citizen’s arrest” of Attorney General Bob Ferguson.

    Is Mount Everest shrinking? Nepal is on a mission to measure the world’s tallest mountain. The elaborate operation has involved secretive trigonometry, a death-defying trek to the summit with 90 pounds of cutting-edge technology, and a lost body part.
    ADVERTISEMENT
    The Remodeled Homes Tour Oct. 26–27 spotlights home improvement projects in the Seattle area that transformed ordinary spaces into something spectacular. Get free tickets from the Remodelers Council of the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties.

    WORTH A READ
    Washington’s oyster growers won’t be using a controversial insectide to fight burrowing shrimp in Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. They’ve agreed not to fight a state decision after a public furor that ensnared high-end Seattle chefs, but the settlement could set the stage for another type of insecticide attack.

    Something that’s working: Nearly 19,000 young people in King County are neither employed nor in school. But a little-known nonprofit has been changing that as it helps aspiring students clear the hurdles in front of them.

    “Get out now, or you’ll be attacked!” Gulls are everywhere in the Puget Sound area, sounding shrill warnings and stealing your fish and chips. It turns out there are a lot of parallels between gulls and humans. And scientists think they know what gulls are talking about — sometimes. Listen to some strange calls and learn their meanings.

    Wellness: The big problem with low-sodium diets is that food usually doesn’t taste as good. But some tricks and a few recipes can help you achieve great taste without giving the salt shaker a workout. And nutritionist Carrie Dennett writes about what moms should be doing about nutrition even before they conceive.

    Planning for retirement is difficult when you can’t pinpoint an end date, and pension jobs are getting rarer — just 18% in the private sector. But in Washington, these occupations still offer a concrete retirement date.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Voting to approve Referendum 88 will give public agencies more tools to pursue important equity goals, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. Read all the board’s endorsements for the Nov. 5 election.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Review: The Who, with help from Eddie Vedder and a Seattle orchestra, wallop T-Mobile Park
    ‘Parasite’ review: Worlds clash in Bong Joon-ho’s masterful dark satire of class divide
    Much more than a tropical paradise: This new travel guide will ‘decolonize’ the way you look at Hawaii

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Rain. High 57. Low 54. Sunrise 7:36. Sunset 6:10.

    SWE’s Take:

    Retirement Planning cannot include endless cruises and European Vacations at high end hotels…it needs a $CASH$ outflow plan too, saving money doesn’t stop just because you’re retired. A good retirement home with medical personnel and private rooms can top $8000/mo, a home for Mom ain’t cheap. You may need that money later. The worse thing retirees need in Seattle is more local property taxes and local fees too. Hey, my $175 tabs on my 2014 recently doubled to about $350 in 2019, I’m voting yes on 976. Is it really evil if I could care less about Metro, a service I don’t use?

  172. 672
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 663 – YoY median sales price for single family residential new constructions declined -7.3% in July 2019. It went from +19.8% in May 2018 to -7.3% in July 2019. So instead of expecting +19.8% gain during the heydays, some spec developers/flippers have to be hurting today at -7.3% decline. Seems like a bloodbath to me for some speculators.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/
    (New Constructions/Median Sale Price/Seattle/Single Family Residential/YoY Change)

  173. 673
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 662:

    RE: Eastsider @ 661 – According to FRED, Miami home prices tripled in the eight years before the crash. Do you think that will happen here?

    I am not going to predict where prices will be. But I’m certainly not buying/investing in this market.

  174. 674
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 655

    Thanks for the response.

    Sounds like you are concerned about the scale of the statistics in the article.

    Can we at least agree that outflows is the opposite of inflows?

    And that being #8 in the country for people looking to move out of their current city would be a negative indicator for the market?

  175. 675
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 671

    _____________

    YoY median sales price for single family residential new constructions declined -7.3% in July 2019. It went from +19.8% in May 2018 to -7.3% in July 2019. So instead of expecting +19.8% gain during the heydays, some spec developers/flippers have to be hurting today at -7.3% decline. Seems like a bloodbath to me for some speculators.
    _____________

    Well let’s assume these numbers are accurate. Then, lets see if the math supports your conclusion.

    If you take your expected sales figure for 2017 (say $1 million) and it goes up by 19.8% in 2018 then you are selling at $1,1980,000. Life is very good. But if you then decline by 7.3%, you sell for $1,110,546 and life is not as good as you had hoped, but it is still quite good.

    Given the increasingly long permitting times, these scenarios are both quite realistic. Given the increase in construction costs, probably 1/4 of the 2018 scenario gain and 2/3’s of the 2019 scenario gain is going toward rising costs.

    So I am not seeing a bloodbath at all. Spec builders who sold their product into the market in Q 2, 3, and 4 of 2018 got a bit roughed up– especially if they overpriced in anticipation that the market would continue to skyrocket. Those who refused to believe that 2018 was different from 2017 truly deserved their time in the barrel. But people who sold in 2019 did fine, especially if they realized that the market had reset and priced accordingly.

    In general, the spec builders I know fall into two categories.

    1) People who know what they are doing. These are people who do not overpay for the land and build well but frugally. Their margins are down from 2014-2018Q1 but they are still making a good return. They always have an extra couple of percent built into their P&L so that they can weather a 7-10% downturn.

    2) People who don’t know what they are doing. They are wannabe spec builders/developers, but they chose the wrong time in the market cycle to learn the game. These include two of my former subs– a drywaller/painter and a sider. They overpaid for the land, used hard money lenders, allowed their architects to design their pet projects, and built oddly but expensively. One of them finally sold his first project after 6 months on the market and multiple reductions. He definitely lost some money, but I think he will survive to play again. The other is in serious trouble with his lender. Part of the reason is that he didn’t start with one project but with 4. (!) The lenders will probably step in to push him aside and take over. Bound to be painful.

  176. 676
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 674

    I have never taken this kind of data seriously unless it is supported by other data.

    I suppose stats of people who are searching for something tells us something, but it pretty squishy. It is not real data about people who actually have moved recently. And even if it were Redfin data for those who have moved using Redfin, that would still not represent all of those people who used other brokerages to move.

    If you take this search data seriously, you think Boston is the new hotspot adding jobs and it has suddenly outpaced Seattle as the hot new place to be? Well, maybe. But why, given that it is even more expensive than Seattle? Maybe it is just that a lot of people are starting to think that New York is expensive and they want to leave New York. But will they leave New York? Or will they stay? And how do we know?

    There is a story that is often applied to data analysis. A cop sees a guy searching under a streetlight and asks him what he lost. The guy says he is looking for his watch. The cop helps him search for several minutes and then says, “We have gone over this pretty thoroughly. Are you sure you lost it here?” To which the guy says, “Oh no. I lost it over there in the bushes under those trees, but it is really dark over there.”

    Meaning, maybe you are taking this data seriously because there isn’t any good current data to tell you what you want to know.

  177. 677
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 676

    Just to be clear…

    You reference traffic congestion and public transit ridership as bullish RE indicators (bike lanes, anybody?), but feel that the redfin statistical data is “squishy”?

    Interesting…

  178. 678
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 675 – You are a bit contradictory. I said some spec developers/flippers are likely in trouble. You even provided an example (#2). So are we arguing about the usage of language – bloodbath here?

    If you take your expected sales figure for 2018 (say $1 million) and it decline by 7.3%, you can sell for $927,000 today (and possibly even lower next year) life cannot be good! Yes, some developers/flippers bought near the peak. It always happens at the peak.

    I’m not sure how you can avoid ‘overpaying’ for land when you are competing against other developers. Many developers have become aggressive because life has been good for them over the past decade. Some are building million dollar homes right under high voltage lines (or even with the tower on the lot!). Talk to Ardell. It is the best bubble indicator.

  179. 679
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 676 – You are wrong about Boston being more expensive than Seattle. According to Zillow, Boston’s HVI is $594,000 and Seattle’s HVI is $714,800. Seattle is 20% more expensive than Boston.

  180. 680
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 676

    LOL, suddenly Deerhawke is worried about the quality of the data, now the data disagrees with him. Before, any positive anecdotes about jobs, incomes and leases would be good enough

  181. 681
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 673
    I understand your position. Keep renting renting and make landlord rich.

  182. 682
    Deerhawke says:

    Actually all of these things– traffic congestion despite rising public transit ridership and use of bike lanes, construction of apartments/condos and Redfin search stats are all just subsidiary indicators. But of the lot, I would say the Redfin search data is the squishiest.

    My wife has a friend who lives in Carmel CA. She would love to retire there but our kids are here. The fact that she logs on to Redifin to look every week does not mean we are moving. We are not.

    My son and his girlfriend have spent a lot of time on Redfin looking at places to live/work in Boston, Austin, Minneapolis, Boise and Portland. Other than Boston, definitely more affordable. But they have better career options here in Seattle and they are now looking for a larger apartment on Capitol Hill.

    Traffic is real (although it can change rapidly). Buildings being built are real because someone spent a lot of money on them and they need to be filled or someone loses a lot of money. Moving aspirations are just that… aspirations. Maybe people will move. Maybe not. Some will. Some won’t.

  183. 683
    whatsmyname says:

    Juststoppedby @ 674
    ” Sounds like you are concerned about the scale of the statistics in the article. ”
    That’s a fair interpretation. Correlation is a relationship, but as I pointed out, it’s likely fractional for a number of reasons. The whole numbers could be pretty small in the big picture, in fact they could be very small. I think our site host could probably clear that up pretty quick.

    “Can we at least agree that outflows is the opposite of inflows? ”
    I agree, but with this caveat. Refin outflows have become larger than the inflows YOY , and the easy implication might be that the market has turned against the seller. But in the market, sales are higher, pending sales are higher, and inventory is lower. The implication there is the opposite. We might see a reversal over time, and it’s worth watching. But so far, A has not led to B. Also, how big are the gross numbers in each year?

    “And that being #8 in the country for people looking to move out of their current city would be a negative indicator for the market?”
    That is a negative on its own. But since we are looking at degrees, let’s look at the actual 8 worst in the nation numbers. Numbers for the first few are pretty high, but that 1336 number for #8 is dramatically smaller. And it’s probably much smaller in conversion to moves. I think the number is much more important than the place on the list. And again, that’s balanced against 20 year median sales and slim inventory. Maybe you’ve found a leading indicator. Time will tell.

    Finally, if say, 300 people moved because they’d be stuck renting here, but could buy elsewhere; well, everybody wins.

  184. 684
    Justme says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 677

    Deerhawke also gets a lot of insights about future real estate prices by going to parties attended by important people from out of town (meaning: people that he or other industry types are trying to sell expensive houses to). If you add together the freeway traffic and the party anecdotes, how can you possibly be wrong?

  185. 685
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 682

    “…traffic congestion despite rising public transit ridership and use of bike lanes”

    Wait, you think bike lanes decrease traffic congestion?

    Interesting…

    Whatsmyname, nothing happens in a vacuum, but that seem to take a lot of work to explain away Seattle being number eight in this category.

    Look at where people are searching for their move away, and you’ll find the most of it is to cheaper versions of Seattle, frequently Spokane or Bellingham.

    I’m guessing that retirees are moving away and cashing out their house, and that, while there has been a back log of home purchasers to fill in the gap since China money slowed down, that can’t last forever.

  186. 686
    sfrz says:

    Article by Chuck Collins, Director of Program on Inequality and the Common Good at the Institute for Policy Studies. An eye-opener. I knew about the shady EB-5 program, but was shocked that so many expensive condos in Seattle are registered as LLC’s. We are becoming Vancouver. What a shame.

    “This report takes a preliminary peak at the challenges posed by Seattle’s luxury boom by looking at a snapshot of luxury condominiums and their ownership and occupancy trends. We look at eight fully sold luxury buildings to see what we can learn. From this, we encourage the city and policymakers to monitor the thousands of new luxury units in the pipeline and consider increased transparency requirements around ownership. We identified, for example, five new luxury-building projects with 1,664 units in development, most coming on market at much higher prices.

    + These 8 residential developments in our sample, totaling 1,635 residential units, have an average condominium taxable property value of $2 million. This is more than 23 times higher than Seattle’s median household income, and nearly 28 times that of the median black family’s income.

    + Across our sample, 12 percent of these units are owned by limited liability companies (LLCs) or trusts that obscure the real owners and beneficiaries, but in one building this is as high as 47 percent. Out of 1,635 residential units, 116 are LLCs and 73 are owned by trusts.

    + At the 99 Union condominium development, 47 percent of the units are owned by trusts, trustees, LLCs, and corporations. In only 19 percent of units is the owner registered to vote there.

    + The more expensive the unit, the more likely it is to be owned by a trust, trustee, LLC, or other corporate entity. We confirmed that 3 percent of the LLCs owning Seattle luxury properties have organized themselves in the state of Delaware, the premiere secrecy jurisdiction in the United States. In a great number more, we could not trace the registration to a level where we could exclude Delaware, making the 3 percent figure the “floor.”

    + To understand whether or not the units are owner-occupied, we compared property ownership to voter records. In the 1,635 units, only 39 percent of owners are registered to vote at the property, a figure nearly 40 percent lower than that of Washington State as a whole.”
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/10/21/who-is-buying-seattle-the-perils-of-the-luxury-real-estate-boom/

  187. 687
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Lulu @ 681 – You are free to buy. Nobody is stopping you.

  188. 688
    Notme says:

    Traffic is getting bad
    because people had to move farther away
    to make room for empty luxury apartments
    that they cannot afford to live in
    centrally located, naturally
    is high traffic bullish? is unaffordability bullish?

    -a keep-cause-and-effect straight bubble poem

  189. 689

    RE: Eastsider @ 679
    Boston Has a Much Better Local Government on New Home Access to Freeways Than Seattle Too

    Basically, ya can’t build on side-road cold-de-sacs housing developments using other folks’ freeway access roads [i.e., Kent-Kangly, etc]…ya can’t over build without providing new freeway access routes.

    We do the opposite in Seattle.

  190. 690

    RE: Notme @ 688
    Oh Come On Notme

    The burger flipper waged warehouse workers in Seattle can find affordable apartments with two bunk buddies per 1 bdrm, ya don’t need parking for a car, you can’t afford it anymore…LOL

    Learn to share. Hand me the video game controller and a delicious can of rotgut, and we’ll all enjoy our $40 pizza flavored crust dinner over a rousing game of “Guns Kill” on Pay Station. The three of us can share the couch. Bunk buddies forever.

  191. 691
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 687
    I bought one. rent rooms. my tenants paying for my mortgage. I checked king county record. my house value already doubled since I bought 5 years ago. I locked 2.75% mortgage three years ago.

  192. 692

    Fill Your Mug With More Yuban, its time to read The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, October 22, 2019
    Nordstrom’s huge bet becomes reality this week in New York City
    As many retailers downsize, Seattle-based Nordstrom is opening its shiny new store in the heart of New York City’s retail kingdom. Now the question is whether the seven-story flagship — which reportedly cost $500 million — will lift Nordstrom or sink it. One thing you won’t see inside: lots of clothes on the racks. Take a tour. (Photo: Andy Bao / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Get ready for a soggy and possibly destructive day. Flood warnings are in effect today on some King County rivers after parts of the region, particularly those at high elevations, received 3 to 6 inches of rain. Flooding is expected along the Snoqualmie and Tolt rivers, and Snoqualmie Falls may see one of the top 10 flows in recorded history.

    Boeing’s defense of the 737 MAX flight-control system stands up, according to sources who spoke after a furor erupted over newly released instant messages between Boeing pilots. The bottom line: Erratic behavior described in the 2016 chat revealed a bug in the flight simulator and was not evidence of the flaws that later showed up on real planes. This matters because the messages had raised new doubts about Boeing’s integrity and transparency.

    Transit alert: Light rail is not serving the Beacon Hill station this morning because of a broken elevator. Sound Transit has some workarounds to suggest.

    President Donald Trump likened the impeachment probe to a “lynching” this morning, drawing an immediate warning from the highest-ranking African American in Congress. “That is one word no president ought to apply to himself,” said Rep. Jim Clyburn, the House majority whip.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders has joined Sen. Elizabeth Warren in blasting Amazon for the record flood of cash it’s pouring into Seattle City Council elections. More:

    Speaking of cash, we’d like to know what you’re seeing and hearing as PACs spend big on Seattle council races.
    Redmond’s next mayor faces rapid growth that shows no signs of stopping. Two City Council members are facing off for the job.

    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    NEW TASTES TO TRY
    Ascend Prime Steak & Sushi
    Seattle Restaurant Week is almost here. It’s grown into a deliciously daunting proposition, with 165-plus places in Seattle — and beyond! — offering special three-course menus for $35. Here’s some help narrowing down the options with our 13 best picks for overall value and 21 new places worth a try. One of those new spots: Bellevue’s critically acclaimed Ascend Prime Steak & Sushi, above. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Google Maps is now helping iPhone users avoid speed traps. Apple Maps — which memorably misplaced the Washington Monument a while back — is under pressure to catch up. But law-enforcement officers want us to stop and think about whether this is a terrible idea.

    Maple Valley folk rocker Brandi Carlile has pulled out of Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit. She’s protesting the participation of ex-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, who oversaw a Trump policy that Carlile sees as one of the United States’ “most merciless acts.”

    A billionaire money manager’s drama is playing out in an old Washington mill town. Few people who have passed through Fisher Investments’ headquarters in Camas were surprised when head Ken Fisher let loose with a string of sexist and vulgar remarks this month. More than a dozen current and former employees paint an inside look at the company’s hardball culture.

    Why does the flu shot hurt so dang much? Do doctors know if this year’s shot will work? Those are among the many questions readers asked us to answer. Now we hope you’ll help decide what we delve into.
    ADVERTISEMENT
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    WORTH A READ
    U.S. air quality was improving, but now it’s getting worse — and thousands more Americans may be dying as a result, a new analysis has found. Researchers dug into what the substances hanging over our cities tell us about the pollution rebound.

    “Like rats, America is running away.” The U.S. troop withdrawal from northern Syria has devolved into chaos. A day after Kurds hurled potatoes and rocks at a departing convoy, the troops are heading for Iraq, which says they’re not welcome to stay. Despite Trump’s vow to end “endless wars,” here’s where about 200,000 U.S. troops remain.

    Seattle schools’ gifted programs are at a crossroads. The district is spawning new controversies as it tries to tackle racial inequities (columnist Danny Westneat wrote about how Seattle should be expanding these programs, not maligning them). Here’s a Q&A on who gets to be called highly capable, how we got to this point and what’s next.

    The Seahawks can still become a Super Bowl contender, but their loss to the Ravens exposed some alarming problems, columnist Larry Stone writes. Exactly how did things go so wrong? The trouble was just starting when Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson donned his Superman cape.

    Travel is about the journey, not always the destination. Nowhere is that more evident than on Highway 2 between the Puget Sound lowlands and the mountains, where you’ll find quirky eateries featuring elk burgers, pie, Bigfoot lore and more.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Hard cold-brew coffee is the latest canned-drink trend, with 4% to 12.5% alcohol by volume. But is it any good? From Pabst Blue Ribbon and La Colombe hard cold brews to spiked Café Agave, here’s a taste test, from terrible to OK.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Dozens of Seattle Times Opinion readers have submitted questions about Initiative 976. The Seattle Times editorial board writes that their concerns show how carefully the state’s transportation funding mechanism must be adjusted and protected. And read the board’s recommendations for the Nov. 5 election.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

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    Brandi Carlile among those pulling out of Fortune women’s summit due to Kirstjen Nielsen’s participation

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Mostly cloudy. High 56. Low 44. Sunrise 7:38. Sunset 6:08.

    SWE’s Take:

    MSM on Syria and Turkey has a blind spot? Hey, in 2016 hoards of Syrian asylum victims needed to be moved to Seattle and America…are these the infamous Kurds? Sounds like Turkey needs to build a WALL if that’s true.

    Delicious $35 dinners in Seattle Cheap? With wine, tip and dessert, sounds like $120 total to me, for a party of two. Oh, I forgot parking cost, $135 dinner then.

  193. 693
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 679

    Apples and oranges. Boston is almost entirely condos, not free-standing SFH. Compare on a $/SF basis and you will see it.

    Different places, different statistics.

  194. 694
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 680

    Justme, I know I haven’t noticed you talking about the the Great 2019 Inventory Reset.

    KC is back under 3900 and headed down. Clearly the buyers aren’t striking. But the sellers seem to be.

    Looking at 705 and 710, a lot of the “new” listings are actually recycled listings from earlier in the year or even last year. Not so many truly-new New Listings. And still we are at below 3900. How do you explain that?

    Hmmm. Justme maybe you need to focus your efforts on sellers, not just buyers.

  195. 695
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 694
    Great points on the sellers strike.

    Would be interesting to compare relisting vs original listing prices at an aggregated level.

    When it all comes down to it, do sellers really strike for any reason other than that they can’t get what they would like in terms of price/value?

  196. 696
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 693:

    RE: Eastsider @ 679

    Apples and oranges. Boston is almost entirely condos, not free-standing SFH. Compare on a $/SF basis and you will see it.

    Different places, different statistics.

    Again. No basis in fact. Redfin has the data. Both Median Sales Price and Price Per Square Foot are lower in Boston.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/
    (Home Prices, Sales & Inventory/Median Sales Price/Single Family Residential)
    (Home Prices, Sales & Inventory/Price Per Square Foot/Single Family Residential)

  197. 697
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Lulu @ 691 – What is your point? You bought at a great price five years ago. So it must be a good time to buy today? Why don’t you buy another one then? Put your money where your mouth is!

  198. 698
    N says:

    Nothing like debating why inventory is going down ….. in late October!!!!!
    Then again, maybe we don’t believe the numbers anyways,
    but for the sake of argument let’s assume they are right.

  199. 699
    Notme says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 695

    :-)

    Sore sellers striking
    waaaaah can’t I get last year’s price?
    it is so unfair!

    -a should-have-sold-when-I-told bubble haiku

  200. 700
    Bumble says:

    There has been a lot of talk about the always interesting Redfin migration data released a few days ago. It has not been mentioned that 26 percent of Redfin searchers across the nation are searching outside their own metro area. But out of over 80 metro areas, Seattle ranks 3rd for highest number of people looking to STAY in their own metro (click the “staying chart” tab). Only 11.2 percent of Seattle searchers are looking outside Seattle. Our retention is 3rd highest in the nation. That is interesting, right?

    Squaring the above data with the reported net outflow of Seattle searches hurts my little brain. There are many possible explanations. And of course these are just Redfin searches from a sample set of searches, so the data needs salt. My personal takeaway is that the migration data is not good news for Seattle RE, it is not like past reports where Seattle was riding high, but neither is it all bad news. Like much of the current data, it is mixed.

    At any rate, the report is really interesting and I hope Redfin/Tim keeps it coming

  201. 701
    JustNoise says:

    By N @ 698:

    Nothing like debating why inventory is going down ….. in late October!!!!!
    Then again, maybe we don’t believe the numbers anyways…

    This! Haha.
    “Show me the numbers.”
    “No, not those numbers, I don’t believe those numbers, I believe these numbers. Incidentally, they also support my position.”

  202. 702
    kenmorem says:

    RE: JustNoise @ 701
    all justme has to do is post his/her formerly weekly chart documenting the seller’s strike. it’ll tell everything.

  203. 703
    S-Crow says:

    Manufactured home Sale:

    2002: $46,000
    2014: $44,000
    2019: $100,000

    Virtually same with minimal improvements.

    That is all.

  204. 704
    OA says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 694

    As a homeowner, even if I sell and make good money, this same money probably will get me the same house (assuming I’m staying in the same area). If I’m moving to different county or state, that will most likely not be the case.

  205. 705
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 697
    My point is housing has to go with wage inflation+speculation. Five years ago, min wage was 7.50$. Next year Seattle wage would be 16$. Five years ago, Amazon was not as big as today. So rent has to go up at least 16/7.5 approx 2.0x. So should the housing price. Moving forward, unless min wage is going to cut and local economy is crash, I can’t predict housing crash. the appreciation rate is going according to wage growth+job creation.

  206. 706
    Erik says:

    Oh….. Justme, where’d yah go? I’ve been trying to explain to you, Joe, and Sfrz for a year that inventory would go down and prices would go up. Now that inventory is down, you seem to have disappeared. Stick around for the spring bump so we can discuss your recovery plan. You need to get better and I’m willing to help you.

  207. 707
    Lulu says:

    RE: Lulu @ 691
    To be honest with you. I bought another one three years ago. On paper, it is still showing 20% appreciation. When Seattle city passed 15$ mandatory min wage. I say sh*t, money is worthless. I bought another one, rent it out with positive cash flow. If you ask me if I would like buy another one today. I would say probably not. Why? Because I will feel safe if the house would at least at least appreciate 10% the next year to cover real estate fees and tax. And I don’t see that will happen in the next year. 3-5% appreciation not enough to cover the cost. I am saving the cash now. Maybe housing correction will to -5 to -10% in the coming recession. But there might be bidding war if real deal coming out. I am saving cash and maintain 850FICO now just wait the perfect time to come. Never say never.

  208. 708
    N says:

    Lulu – min wage may be up 110% but medium wages are NOT, more like 30%. Don’t know how min wages would drive housing prices higher. Are you suggesting the price to income ratio has not changed the past 7 years?

  209. 709
    Lulu says:

    RE: N @ 708
    min is a measure of wage inflation. as a wage earner, you would need to hire a baby sitter, a contractor or eat out at a local restrurant. If one day you find your bill is doubled, what’s you reaction. Same house, you would like to charge 2x to make it break even. Five years ago, a one-bed room apt would cost you $1200 to rent, now it is $2500. Wage increase offseted by housing gain. Medium wage is up like 30%, that’s true, but if you need to hire service and cost of service is 100% more expensive. I see many wage earner fix their own house, be their own plumber. Housing intrinsic vale remain the same but wage inflation plus speculation (limited land supply,migration of labor force, cost of construction materials, construction labor shortage and wage inflation) all contribute to Seattle housing inflation.

  210. 710
    N says:

    Lulu – I get your point although I would disagree with your assessment that rent has increased 100% the last 5 years. And are you sure you measure wage inflation by only the small % making min wage? Majority of 1 bedrooms today don’t rent for $2,500 either. In fact Zumper shows 1 bedrooms increased from 1,600 in 2014 to 1,890 today (links below) Not going to disagree one bit that restaurants etc are more expensive because it’s pinched our family for sure.

    https://www.zumper.com/blog/2014/11/us-average-rent-october-2014/

    https://www.zumper.com/blog/2019/09/zumper-national-rent-report-october-2019/

    And as Kary has often pointed out, just because your costs go up doesn’t mean you can charge more, its driven by the market (supply and demand), sometimes you can pass on the costs of increased operating costs (ie taxes, insurance), sometimes you can’t

  211. 711
    Lulu says:

    RE: N @ 710
    Housing price is mostly speculation plus money. When there are more buyers than sellers, price will increase. During the last five years, we saw money flee from China, we see IT companies expansion, we see low mortgage rate, we see record stock market bull run, we see min age double, we see Californian flee SV to Seattle. Plus, Seattle (should include Portland OR) housing price was the lowest on west coast metro area (compare to SF, LAX, SD, Vancouver BC). Expensive, yes everyone think so. Cheaper than Vancouver and SF, yes we have mush room to go up. In the long run, I am still bullish on Seattle housing (compare to national average). Yes, it is quite possible we will see recession and housing market correction -10% the most I would see. Does it mean you should hold cash and wait? I don’t know. 2008 housing crash won’t repeat again. I see more bubble in equity market and fix income market. Time will tell.

  212. 712
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 706

    >> Oh….. Justme, where’d yah go?

    I was last seen at comment 684, Erik. Don’t be anxious, daddy is here. I will hold your hand and comfort you when things get bad, as long as you promise to repent. I’m not heartless. It is just that between inflation-mongering speculators suffering from lower prices, and the general good of lower prices, I’m afraid the moral choice is clear.

  213. 713
    ruxpert says:

    MyKabin streamlining process for constructing backyard cottages
    Madison Valley couple hosting October open house to show off first completed unit
    https://madisonparktimes.com/Content/Real-Estate/Real-Estate/Article/MyKabin-streamlining-process-for-constructing-backyard-cottages/23/249/31546

  214. 714
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 696

    Still Apples and Oranges. You clearly don’t know Boston.

    (Quick. How do you pronounce Worcester? What do people in South Boston call their neighborhood? )

    Curbed Boston
    Downtown Boston condo, townhouse prices hit records in spring, report says
    New analysis compares market’s spikes to earlier conditions down the coast in Brooklyn; sales down though
    By Tom Acitelli Jul 18, 2019, 1:57pm EDT

    The sales price for a downtown Boston condo reached a record $1,139 a square foot during the second quarter of 2019, a 10.7 percent increase over the same period in 2018, according to a new report from brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraiser Miller Samuel. (The report based that record on figures from over the past 19 years.)

    The report—which covered Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Charleston, Fenway, Midtown, the North End, the Seaport, South Boston, the South End, and the West End—showed a general rise across all major price measures.

    The median condo sales price, for instance, was up 6.7 percent, to $910,000, and the average sales price was up 13.1 percent, to $1,336,307. These and the average per square foot record came even though there continue to be more condos available, in part because of an echoing development boom in downtown Boston.

    “In condo sales, the market is moving at a rapid pace despite five consecutive quarters of inventory expansion,” Scott Elwell, Douglas Elliman’s senior executive manager for New England, said in a summary of the report.

    The rising prices did put a damper on condo sales. The number of closed deals was down 15.9 percent, to 952, in the second quarter, the report said.

    Still, if the condo price changes are taken with the overall performance of the townhouse market in the second quarter too, then the downtown market appears to be on tear.

    Every major townhouse price indicator hit a record. The median sales price was up 7.6 percent, to $1,399,000; the average sales price was up 11.9 percent, to $1,846,959; and the average sales price per square foot was up 8.2 percent, to $756.

    The inventory of available townhouses for sale was up 11.4 percent, and the number of sales was down 7.6 percent.

  215. 715
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 714 – I will grant you that Boston condos are pricier than Seattle and are among the priciest in the country. But as far as SFH is concerned, Seattle prices beat Boston hands down. People here are more interested in buying homes (‘permanent’) than condos (‘transitory’).

    https://www.trulia.com/for_sale/Boston,MA/SINGLE-FAMILY_HOME_type/

  216. 716
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 712:

    RE: Erik @ 706

    >> Oh….. Justme, where’d yah go?

    I was last seen at comment 684, Erik. Don’t be anxious, daddy is here. I will hold your hand and comfort you when things get bad, as long as you promise to repent. I’m not heartless. It is just that between inflation-mongering speculators suffering from lower prices, and the general good of lower prices, I’m afraid the moral choice is clear.

    I knew you were here. Weird that you would respond to that jab, but I can’t get you to engage on the subject that you found so fascinating that you abandoned your weekend update.

    No worries, I’ve made it slightly briefer, and will just repost here so you can have another opportunity:

    While you were spending all your free time digging into this tax migration information, did you dig into the methodology part where they explain that the 2015-2016 refers to filing dates, and are geared to 2014 and 2015 earnings? This might explain why it doesn’t tie to the “population and jobs hype from 2016”.

    Since this was about the change from 2014 to 2015, I did go back exactly 4 years to see what the representations around this blog were all about in Oct. 2015. Despite what you wrote, I didn’t see much positive about jobs and the economy, except that Amazon was hiring a bunch of temporary seasonal warehouse workers. The housing market was, however, booming, (or as I would say, recovering). Several posters thought that the $490k median house price signaled that we were deep into Bubble 2.

    I was surprised at the 3,547 net inflow, but it was 2015 after all. Then, I realized that number was after a net outflow of 3,928 to Snohomish County and 3,028 to Pierce County, (they make that data very convenient). So the metro was up 10,000+ even then. That seemed more intuitively correct.

    Also, among the many caveats disclosed, they called out that the migrant status was determined by the filing address, explicitly mentioning that the returns did not necessarily tie to the place that the money was made, and that all the earnings for some migrant status returns might all have been made at the prior location. To be fair I always like to assume a reasonable symmetry in distribution over the population, simplified to a general representation of 1 year in each location. Problem there is we are comparing:
    1 year earnings in Seattle plus 1 year earnings elsewhere for outbound to
    1 year earnings elsewhere plus 1 year earning in Seattle for the inbound.
    You can quickly see where this doesn’t explain the difference between earnings in Seattle and elsewhere too well.

    But here is where it gets weird. King County non-migrants count 837,662 returns and $101,878,356,000 in AGI – Thats like $126K per year per tax return for non-migrants. Clearly it pays to stay; at least if you believe in our analysis.

    That’s my 20 minutes with the data. What else did you find?

  217. 717
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 715

    Live in Boston and you will understand how people define the city. Cambridge, Somerset and Brookline are really part of Boston although they are separate municipalities. Hyde Park, West Roxbury and far Mattapan are technically part of Boston, but are really part of Dedham.

    Boston is only cheap compared to New York.

  218. 718
    richard says:

    RE: OA @ 704 – did your property go up. you must feel good when it keeps going up, right?

  219. 719
    richard says:

    RE: Lulu @ 705 – nonsense. housing price is related to how much money you can borrow. in seattle, another factor is chinese money. minimun wage is not the cause of high house price. you bought two houses and you are obviously not a minimum wage earner,right? i understand you have skin in the game, but you logic is very laughable.

  220. 720
    Deerhawke says:

    You have to wonder what is going on with the Redfin KC inventory tracker.

    Between 6 pm and 7 pm yesterday the number dropped from 3864 to 3570. It is a little hard to believe nearly 300 houses sold that day. Did somebody at the NWMLS get back from vacation and finally catch up with their paperwork?

    Tim, any idea what’ s up there?

  221. 721

    Read Everyone’s Blogs and Quite Interesting Opinions All:

    I don’t do accuracy analysis of KC listed and sold homes per month, but can give you my snapshot of SE King County “sold ” signs….there aren’t any, but listed signs are high [IMO], like 4% of my HOA, last year it was 0%. The old SFHs across the street from me have been there for decades, they have “just” listed “in groves” for sale RE markers too…old stagnant dog property [large lots and wooded areas, not new home lots with no trees] from the past. The heyday homes/lots sizes IOWs from the 70s. Around me, everyone is selling and no one seems to be buying. Prices on new homes are advertised at mid $500s.

    BTW S-crow, a factory built double-wide is much cheaper on wheels, but stick it on a lot permanently [remove the wheels] and it becomes a manufactured or module home….on its own lot on pilings its worth 2-3 times those figures now. Hades, the crawl space, plumbing and electric hookups cost more than the house…LOL

    Just Filled My Yuban Mug, Fill Your’s Too Its Time for Today’s
    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, October 23, 2019
    737 MAXs are parked
    Boeing profit slashed as cost of 737 MAX grounding balloons to $9.2 billion
    The 737 MAX crisis cut Boeing’s third-quarter profit in half compared with a year earlier, the company announced this morning. Boeing also released new figures that bring the estimated cost of the MAX grounding so far to $9.2 billion, and the company said it plans to reduce production of the 787 Dreamliner in Everett. Above, 737 MAX jets are crowded onto Boeing Field adjacent to the Duwamish River. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)
    BOEING SHAKEUP

    The reasons behind the Boeing Commercial Airplanes boss’ firing go beyond the grounded 737 MAX, a senior Boeing executive tells us. Stan Deal, chief executive of the company’s services division, will replace Kevin McAllister, whose departure was announced yesterday.
    David Calhoun, who replaced the embattled Dennis Muilenburg as chairman, is facing a massive minefield. One mine: deciding what to do about Muilenburg, who’s still the CEO.
    Indonesian investigators slammed Boeing in a presentation to Lion Air victims’ families before today’s release of a report on the crash.

    NEED TO KNOW
    Rescue crews were hoping a missing hiker had hunkered down in a small cabin in the North Cascades. They tried for days to reach the cabin, but were thwarted by bad weather and avalanche warnings. Finally, yesterday, they made it — and now 28-year-old Rachel Lakoduk’s family is fearing the worst.

    A big fire inside the Fred Meyer in Lake City was arson, according to the Seattle Fire Department. Detectives are looking for clues about who was behind last night’s blaze.

    A log jam has caused a traffic jam this morning. Crews have been working to clear lumber that piled up on the flooded Snohomish River and forced lane closures on the Highway 2 trestle. Flood warnings are in effect along parts of the Snoqualmie and Snohomish rivers. Check traffic before you go.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    ‘FINALLY HOME’
    A military funeral honors team carries the casket of Army Pfc. Donald E. Mangan
    After 75 years, Army Pfc. Donald E. Mangan has returned from World War II, laid to rest by the family he never knew. “He died before most of us were born,” says Kris Mangan, one of the relatives who came from across the country to honor him at yesterday’s funeral in Gig Harbor. In a wild stroke of coincidence, luck or something else, the soldier was buried next to his brother. Family members wiped away tears for “this kid in his 20s.” (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Seattle, how much do you trust Amazon? This election season started as a referendum on the City Council, but now it’s looking like a referendum on the bursting corporate Goliath in our midst (witness the big bucks Amazon is pouring into races). The company’s deep involvement could backfire, columnist Danny Westneat writes.

    A couple who went scuba-diving in the Columbia River found a submerged truck that held human remains. The find has been connected to a Washington man who went missing 26 years ago.

    What’s that you say? Quiet restaurants where you can actually hear each other talk are in short supply. Here are 10 good ones as part of today’s countdown to Seattle Restaurant Week (which reaches beyond Seattle, by the way). We’re also recommending 14 cozy neighborhood spots and 10 special places with the best ambience.

    SWE’s Take:

    Boeing loses $9.2B over MAX 8 grounding? BCAC CEO Heads finally fired. Its beginning to seriously unravel, at a theater near you too. The Boeing brand is now nick-named “Not-going”?

  222. 722

    High Priced Seattle Real Estate and Today’s Car Quality Remind Me of Each Other Too

    Have you noticed a $30-40K vehicle is smaller with larger prices….but what really has got my attention lately, is the $50K Lexus With No Front Bumper:

    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=pictures+of+thr+front+end+view+of+lexus+2019+car&fr=yset_ff_syc_hp-s&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.hgmsites.net%2Fmed%2F2019-lexus-is-is-300-rwd-angular-front-exterior-view_100685938_m.jpg#id=11&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.hgmsites.net%2Fmed%2F2019-lexus-is-is-300-rwd-angular-front-exterior-view_100685938_m.jpg&action=click

    I could easily push my foot into that Lexus radiator venting and do 1000s of dollars in damage. Does the Lexus overheat if it has a real front bumper with less radiator venting? The MSM establishment keeps its mouth zipped.

    Same with real estate, we invent village idiot fairy tales about how good “high priced” crunch zones over a real low priced “front bumper” home we can afford.

    The 2019 Kia Rio and Hyundai models have the general same defect…no front bumper. Village Idiots with no automotive engineering design credentials say its all right, its now a front end “CRUNCH ZONE”…LOL, what a bunch of buffoons.

  223. 723

    We’re All Bored in Seattle this Halloween, We Need a Haunted House for Adults Only…LOL

    https://wgntv.com/2019/10/22/scariest-haunted-house-in-u-s-requires-40-page-waiver-doctors-note-safe-word/

    Its like buying a gun, no background check, no gun…or in this case, Halloween Haunted House admission. Hey, this sounds more stimulating than three “bunk buddies” crammed on the expensive Seattle apartment couch playing Pay Station gun violence video games or visiting the “current” Seattle strobe light smeared makeup kids’ haunted houses…. check it out? ;-)

    Bring the adult Halloween fun to Seattle too? LOL

  224. 724

    RE: Deerhawke @ 720

    Total Residential right now is 3,851. “Someone at the NWMLS” doesn’t do the paperwork that results in inventory changes. Each agent inputs their own status changes. Some offices and agents have their own staff person to do that, but rarely does someone ask the NWMLS to do a status change. One exception used to be Temp off Market. I think I’ve only done one of those in 30 years, so not 100% sure how that works these days. The other exception that removes property from inventory is when a listing expires it is just automatic and those could all happen at the same time on expiration day. That’s a computer function.

    Not sure what classes of residential vs condo are in the Redfin numbers. Note that Brokerage sites are not always in real time with “the mls”. Each controls it’s own data on its site. When I listed a property last week the photos were on the mls instantly and within 5 minutes they were on Estately (which is why I used the Estately link here) but it took hours for the photos to appear on Redfin. That used to happen all the time, but in recent times it is unusual. It is why I list my properties after midnight and by 1 a.m. so the photos can catch up with the listing by the time prospective buyers wake up and look at their instant alert.

    Rarely when there is a problem with info on a site is it on the NWMLS side of things. It’s usually the site you are looking at. Exception would be when the mls goes down for maintenance, but usually they do that much later, like midnight to 2 a.m.

    On the 22nd there were 3 expireds, 4 temp off market, 14 cancelled, 45 sold, 51 went Pending Inspection, 5 other kinds of pendings like Contingent, Pending Feasibility etc. 27 went to full Pending but those would only come from inventory on the same day if they didn’t first pass through Pending Inspection first. My eyes aren’t quite healed enough to do that tedious breakout :)

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated in real time by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  225. 725
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 724

    KC Inventory of 3851 seems right. I had projected around 3800 – 3825 by the end of the month.

    But even now Redfin is showing 3560. My guess is that somebody at Redfin made a sudden change in the feed that cut out townhouses— or something like that.

    I hope you feel better soon Ardell.

  226. 726
    OA says:

    RE: richard @ 718

    I don’t know, I just finished building it this year. Didn’t get it appraised.

  227. 727
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 725

    Deerhawke’s suggestion that (some) townhouse classifications suddenly changed may have merit. Townhouses being inconsistently classified one way or the other (SFR or Condo, perhaps depending on how the underlying land is owned) seems to be a recurring problem with many data providers or search/query logic. And has been discussed before by Ardell, myself and others. But clearly something has changed recently with the redfin data, both here on SB and on redfin website.

    Of particular interest is what happened yesterday to SFHlog.txt and Condlog.txt

    SFHlog.txt discontinuity DOWN
    10.22.2019 18:00 3433 3864
    10.22.2019 19:00 3428 3570

    Condolog.txt discontinuity UP occurred 2 days earlier
    10.20.2019 12:00 1074 906
    10.20.2019 13:00 1073 1004

    Question: If there was a separate THlog.txt, might one be able to find the “missing” listings, more or less? Well, maybe not quite. I sampled King County active listings with various filter setting combinations for classes of property on redfin, and got the following numbers:

    House alone 3560
    Townhouse alone 573
    Condo alone 971
    H+T+C 5256 (> 5104 = 3560 + 573 + 971)
    H+T+0 4368 (> 4133 = 3560 + 573 + 0)
    H+0+C 4500 (< 4531 = 3560 + 0 + 971)
    0+T+C 1452 (< 1544 = 0 + 573 + 971)

    After collecting the above numbers, I quickly repeated the searches and confirmed that no numbers had changed, to get *that* particular possible source of inconsistency out of the way.

    Now: Is there any “selection logic” that is consistent with this set if numbers? One working theory I had is that in this “new version of redfin”, single-class-specified searches excluded properties with multiple classes specified. That would explain the “greater than” in the H+T+C and H+T+0 lines. But, then that theory fails because of the “less-than” result on the H+0+C and 0+T+C lines.

    A 2nd working theory might be that only Townhouses are susceptible to double-counting, and that they are double-counted when searched alone, double-counted in conjunction with House, but counted correctly in conjunction with Condo. Double-counting might result in a wrong (higher) total being reported, but there might not be any repetitions in property list. Could test this by searching in a low-count zip code and going through the count versus the number of actual different addresses reported. Enough for now.

    It’s a big problem when property classifications or the search logic changes. It makes it really hard to maintain consistently measured listing counts over time.

  228. 728
    Deerhawke says:

    There are SF houses, zero lot line townhouses (which are normally categorized as SF houses) and condo townhouses ( which are normally categorized as condos). It is a good bet that somebody suddenly made a change in the Redfin program to eliminate the zero lot line townhouses from the SF count.

    Putting these accounting issues aside, inventory has clearly reset downward after a small correction in 2018 and is stabilizing in a new lower trajectory.

  229. 729
    Erik says:

    Yay!!! King County SFH inventory is 3560. Prices are projected to go up this spring.

  230. 730

    RE: Deerhawke @ 728

    There are also unattached homes that are classified as condo. Some in King but even more so in Snohomish.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Gig-Harbor/3708-119th-St-Ct-NW-98332/home/69367231

    That’s why when I want to get a truer read I leave the condos and residential (those are the two major classes in the mls) together and look at the trends by 1, 2 and 3+ bedrooms.

    The data breaks out as Single Family (as opposed to multi family) and then Residential or Condo is the first subgroup. (other subgroups in Single Family are Manufactured Homes, Houseboats and others.

    That’s what creates a lot of the confusion. Condo is a sub-group of Single Family because a single family lives in a condo as compared to a duplex or triplex. Condo is single family in the mls. Not condo is called Residential and then the break out is by type. Then you have multi-level residential vs townhome residential which at times is just whatever the agent feels like calling it.

    I think the feed automatically comes in from the mls with the larger number and then the receiving site chooses to further split that larger number. So you likely will always see it change within an hour like that due to the difference between the way the receiving site wants to display it and the raw data that they get.

    You shouldn’t have to go all the way down to zip code as most townhomes that are called SFH/fee simple vs condo are in Seattle.

    Kirkland+Bellevue+Redmond on a combined basis has 738 Single Family Residential + Condo for sale.
    81 of those are townhomes and 51 of those 81 are condo. BUT virtually all of the 30 in the difference are listed as both residential and condo as duplicate listings. So that 81 is really 51 and virtually all of the townhomes are condos.

    Seattle on the other hand has 1,965 Residential + Condo of which 364 are townhomes with only 34 of those 364 being condos. So it’s primarily a Seattle issue and not a King County issue. If you did Seattle vs the rest of King County most all townhomes would be the reverse. In Seattle SFH -Residential Townhomes and everywhere else the townhomes are condos. Always some exception, but as you can see from the numbers above, largely the case that Seattle is the outlier as to townhomes not being condos most of the time. So breaking King County into Seattle then everything not Seattle would help more than taking it all the way to by zip code.

    Some 2 bedroom single family homes in the best neighborhoods of Seattle are more of a condo alternative, like this one.
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5626-2nd-Ave-NW-98107/home/299191
    So breaking things out by number of bedrooms often makes more sense if you are consistent with your data.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated in real time by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  231. 731
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 728

    “Reset” is not the correct description. Reset is when something goes to to 0 or starts over. Calling the 2019 droop a “reset” is massive exaggeration and overly dramatic.

    Potential buyers, much more important than this minor reversal in inventory pattern is what will take place when jobs and incomes go into reverse. Watch out below.

  232. 732
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 730

    Why do you say Gig-Harbor/3708-119th-St-Ct-NW-98332 a condo? Because it as HOA fees? The ad says it has a lot of 3900ft2.

  233. 733

    RE: Justme @ 732

    Look at the small print in the above link just above “your comments” it says “Also listed on NWMLS as #1507744” Here is the duplicate listing where it says property type Condominium

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Gig-Harbor/3708-119th-St-Ct-NW-98332/home/69367231/nwmls-1507744

    We talked about this before. If you are going to track stats, you have to decide how to define these houses called condos and these condos called houses. The single family home as condo is more common in Snohomish and Pierce than King. I think they call single family homes on small lots condominiums. Not the classic definition. The ones I see in King that call free standing single family homes condos do it because the lots aren’t subdivided. But clearly with more density these classifications are getting murky.

    What would you call a house vs a condo? The legal classification in many cases doesn’t match the layman’s definition or even the County’s definition. The County Record is showing that house as Condominium with a further classification of “airspace condo”. Most people would look at that as you did and call it a house and that is why the mls allows condos to sometimes be listed as both houses and condos resulting in duplicate listings. Even if someone pulls one of the two…which one will they call the duplicate? The not condo is the duplicate but you would likely, based on your comment, do the reverse and not call it a condo.

    To mark small increases and decreases in stats, and large ones as well, you have to control your classifications and not leave them to the whim of a 3rd part site.

    In King we have more attached housing that is not called a condo and in Pierce and Snohomish we have more not attached housing without shared land that is called a condo. Not sure about that Gig Harbor one, but there are tons of housing developments in Snohomish County called condo when they are the same as regular single family homes in King on small lots.

    As a student of the market you have to decide if a tomato is a vegetable or a fruit :), if an attached house is a single family and if a not attached house on a small lot below X size is truly a single family. You can’t merely rely on each separate jusisdiction or 3rd part website outside of the mls’s ever changing classifications, as it will throw your stats off by a pretty wide margin, especially if you are tracking more than one County.

    I don’t track inventory as you can’t track inventory in real time in hindsight. If you are tracking solds, it is easy to switch back and forth in both real time and hindsight. But if you are tracking inventory you have to have a hard and fast set of rules as to class OR just lump all the classes together without distinction. If you lump them altogether, you will have a true number. It’s when you try to divide them into gray areas of class that things go sideways.

    The clearest way I have been able to track it is to lump them together and then separate by number of bedrooms as 0, 1, 2 and 3+. But even then you have to deal with these duplicate listings of condos sometimes shown as houses and houses sometimes shown as condos.

    As an agent I don’t have this problem because I never have a client who wants to live anywhere in a whole County, so the stats are more localized. But I do have the problem when someone is looking at both North King and South Snohomish which is typical in Bothell on the Kirkland side. I have sold at least two excellent, free standing single family homes with their own lots in Bothell and both were classified as Condominiums there. As to the Gig Harbor, I’m not sure that lot is what the listing says it is, as the County record I pulled up on one of the sold properties isn’t mirroring that representation. Hard to do County record details with accuracy on new construction.

    You have been working very hard on stats for a long time. It is time for you to make your own judgment calls so the stats don’t surprise and confound you when the source modifies their decisions on these gray areas of property type. On a few occasions you have been trying to figure out a huge change within one hour. My best guess is the huge number is the full data dump and the smaller number results from a modification to that data based on property type. But are they always sorting correctly ore even to the same standard that they did months ago? Maybe not. You have to have your own controls.

  234. 734

    Busy day Today, I’m up at 7AM Early Glupping Yuban and reading
    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, October 24, 2019

    NEED TO KNOW
    Puget Sound Energy wants to raise your natural-gas bill. Regulators today will consider the latest in a slew of rate increases from local utilities that are affecting everything from electricity to trash collection.

    Drier skies are ahead. We’ll get a nice break from the rain, and after tomorrow, you might not need your raincoat for the rest of the month. But that doesn’t mean it will be warm … or especially calm.

    Now that’s a cleanup job: Crews are using a crane and boats to unclog a 100-yard logjam under the Highway 2 trestle near Everett. The photos show what a daunting task this is. Traffic is affected, so check before you go. Here’s where to find live updates on traffic across our region.

    Half a million people are without power today as dangerous winds sweep through Northern California. The blackout is intended to prevent wildfires like the 10,000-acre blaze that’s forcing mass evacuations in Sonoma County. Another blackout, across a much larger area, is likely in coming days. Across the country, fire destroyed one of the world’s tallest treehouses in minutes.

    Republican lawmakers breached security and stormed into an impeachment hearing yesterday, dramatically escalating their protests and setting off one of the most bizarre days of the probe. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump got quite the response from Colorado’s governor after he relocated the state to the southern border. Whoops.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    Flight to Mars ride
    Thousands of you, we bet, will remember getting to go on the Flight to Mars — perhaps as a reward for your hard work as a school safety patrol. You slid into beetle-shaped cars that lurched and clattered into the darkness, jerking through scenes of murder and mayhem. Sadly, only a ghost of this iconic Northwest ride remains. Can you guess where and when this photo was taken? Check your answer and see what’s there now.
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Who’s to blame for the infamous Seattle Freeze, if it’s really a thing? Most people who live here are from elsewhere, which raises the question of whether the small slice of born-and-bred Seattleites could really be perpetrating this icy unwelcome on everyone else. Amid all the hype, FYI Guy looks at what the hard numbers tell us.

    Yet again, the Sounders dug deep and found a way to win 2-0 last night against Salt Lake, earning a shot at another Western Conference championship. These late-season runs keep happening when it matters most. Stay tuned, because we’ll find out today who they play next, and whether it will be at CenturyLink Field.

    For readers in Tacoma and Olympia, a Saturday newspaper will soon be a thing of the past. The News Tribune and The Olympian are ceasing their Saturday print editions in January.

    “I’ve just endured the world’s newest longest flight.” Intrepid reporter Angus Whitley climbed aboard a Boeing 787 and hooked up monitors to track his blood pressure, heart rate and oxygen levels. Then he settled in for the nearly 20-hour trip from New York to Australia, as scientists studied his fellow passengers to learn about the effects of long-haul travel. Here’s what it did to Whitley.
    Provided by Northpoint Recovery
    Detox is only the beginning on the path to recovery. How do you find an addiction recovery center that will provide immediate help and a strong foundation for long-term sobriety? Here are four things to look for.
    WORTH A READ
    The Federal Way couple took in a homeless man, hoping “to help him get on his feet.” Now he’s accused of repeatedly raping their teenage daughter at knifepoint.

    Sunny news for Microsoft: Demand for cloud-computing programs helped lift the company’s sales and profit above analysts’ expectations.

    With a lift from Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, the next generation of Seattle hip-hop is taking shape. When Aurelio Valdez-Barajas signed up for their Residency program, he wanted to prove he was “the best rapper out of everybody here.” But he came out of it with a mission to make a difference with music. Now the youth program is searching for a permanent home in the gentrifying city.

    Some of Washington state’s most exciting wines come from three grapes that are magical together, wine writer and judge Andy Perdue says as he unveils his 25 top Northwest wines for 2019. (May we just say … wine descriptions are so fun to read.)

    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    United Way of King County’s annual contribution drive helps make Seattle a more welcoming and equitable place. The Seattle Times editorial board suggests you consider a contribution to help needy King County residents build better lives. And, as you study your ballot in the Nov. 5 general election, read the board’s endorsements.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 62. Low 49. Sunrise 7:41. Sunset 6:05.

    SWE’s take:

    What percentage of wild fires are caused by wind blowing sparks from homeless camp fires versus power lines? Its a MSM news blind spot Seattle Times, IMO. The data is clear as mud.

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-09/lapd-will-clear-homeless-camps-in-fire-danger-zones-as-santa-ana-winds-hit

    Winter Heating bills should sky rocket with significantly higher gas bills, at a theater near you this winter.

    Time for Toastmasters today.

  235. 735
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 733

    >>To mark small increases and decreases in stats, and large ones as well, you have to control your classifications and not leave them to the whim of a 3rd part site.

    I agree. So when will the general public get access to NWMLS? That’s what is needed. Even NWMLS clearly mis-classifies and double-lists stuff, but at least when you have the raw data then you can fix the errors to a much larger extent.

  236. 736
    N says:

    @Deerhawke – Yes, inventory is trending down compared to FY18 but if you were to look at the past few years it’s a healthy increase. This day in 2017 had standing inventory of 2,600, 26% LESS than today.

    it’s interesting to consider how much rates may be playing into this. The only time we saw the large inventory bump was during a time period that rates were the highest in years (near 5%), since rates have dropped so does inventory.

    I’m noticing more homes selling well above list price then I have the entire year. Here is an example, see many of these each week just in West Seattle alone. Seems the fall season was strong.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3615-49th-Ave-SW-98116/home/330778

  237. 737
    Justme says:

    @The_Tim, I wonder of you could use your redfin super-powers to find out what is going on with the listing classification change? And maybe get whoever was doing changes to revert them?

    I really is quite hopeless to try and compare historical inventory levels when the definitions and classifications are changing underneath you.

    I so wish I had NWMLS access. I’d go back and re-run hourly inventory numbers at least to 2007 (or longer!) with ONE consistent set of classifications, and no duplicate listings allowed.

  238. 738
    townhousejunkie says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 734 – why are you so obsessed with yuban?

  239. 739
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 733

    Ardell, can you post some screenshot(s) of NWMLS listing counts for King County? SF, TH, CO separately and jointly and whatever else is possible in terms of combinations and totals. I’m trying to understand how secondary sites generate their numbers, and what their raw data is…

  240. 740
    Bumble says:

    By Justme @ 731:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 728
    “Reset” is not the correct description. Reset is when something goes to to 0 or starts over. Calling the 2019 droop a “reset” is massive exaggeration and overly dramatic.

    Oh for heaven’s sake. Again with the dictionary already?

    I’d say you are being pedantic, but I don’t think your criticism even holds up. When an NFL referee “resets” the game clock, does it go to “0?” DH said there had been a “reset downward.” A trend reversal or direction change could be fairly described as a reset in direction. It may not be the best term, but it isn’t wrong.

    Let it go. This is the internet. You aren’t grading undergraduate papers.

  241. 741
    Justme says:

    Tell me, how special is Seattle and how different is it than the rest of the nation?

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/10/24/despite-ultra-low-mortgage-rates-new-house-prices-drop-to-multi-year-low/

    Despite Ultra-Low Mortgage Rates, New House Prices Drop to Multi-Year Low

    The median price of new single-family houses in September fell 8.8% from a year ago to $299,400 – down 12.8% from the peak in November and December 2017 and back where the median price had first been in November 2014, according to the Commerce Department this morning:

    The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate rose to 3.75% for the week , according to Feddie Mac this morning.
    Homebuilders – unlike homeowners who want to sell – cannot “outwait the market.” They have to move their speculative inventory, and to stay in business, they have to build and sell houses. The lower prices are stimulating volume. In September, homebuilders sold new houses at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 701,000 houses, the fourth highest since the Housing Bust, and up 15.5% from September last year:

  242. 742
    Justme says:

    How special is Seattle, part II:

    AMZN stock dropped after hours from 1781 closing to as low as 1618 before recovering to 1629. Missed on earnings, beat on revenue, profitability trending down.

    Free shipping on moss!

  243. 743
    Justme says:

    Someone was talking about Boston metro area being hot last spring? Not so much anymore….says the president of Greater Boston Association of Realtors. Oh, how things have changed since that July article posted 2 days ago,.

    http://boston.curbed.com/2019/10/23/20928609/boston-area-housing-market-cooling-off-brokers-say

    “Conditions have the realtors association suggesting the once unthinkable: That the Boston-area housing market—so long the domain of ceaseless escalating prices, vicious bidding wars, and often paltry inventory—might be turning in favor of buyers.”

    “‘The sellers’ market is likely over, or at least the balance has shifted,’ Jim Major, president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors and an agent with Century 21 North East in Woburn, said in a statement. ‘With sale prices having begun to stabilize, more homes and condos available for sale, and properties sitting on the market longer, home values have most likely peaked in many areas.’”

    Note: Boston is special, too!! Or at least used to be.

  244. 744
    Mikal says:

    Justme is special too!!! He also wont be able to afford a house in Boston.

  245. 745

    RE: Justme @ 735

    A lot of my clients work at the tech companies and many years ago I remember one saying…Oh what we could do if we had all that data! It’s true, but the function of an mls is not really about the data…it’s about selling houses. If it benefits a seller to be double listed, then the primary purpose…helping that seller sell that house, is the primary goal. It screws up the data…yes, and even with access it’s not easy to sort those out on a grand scale vs the smaller geographic areas agents actually use.

    It’s primary function is not about what you are trying to use it for. It is great for its intended purpose and clearly no one would give YOU access. LOL! You just want to beat them up with that data.

    You approach the market from a buyer perspective and want to beat prices down. The Primary function of an MLS is to List Houses and do whatever it takes to help them sell higher, not lower. You have a reverse mission.

    When we have a buyer vs seller client, the job reverses…but buyers are not IN the mls. Sellers are.

    You can easily sort the data yourself and just exclude the gray areas of type. You don’t need every single listing to pick out the trend. You only need every house to be a bit of an Ahl about it. Set your control group and act a bit more truthful and professional about truly being interested in the data and not merely using the data to try to destroy the market. In other words, clean up your act and people would help you.

  246. 746

    RE: Justme @ 739

    I can’t do that but I can operate the system with you present at a place with wifi if Erik agrees to be a chaperone. LOL! He will. Not anytime real soon. My eye is still healing from surgery. But we are going into the slower season, so in the next 60 days or so would be ideal vs in high season.

    I think you should see what it is so you will better understand how to set your parameters. But it’s proprietary, so you can look over my shoulder if I take your phone away so you can’t take pictures. LOL!

  247. 747
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 746
    I’ll be there! I would be cautious with anyone that thought the market was tanking when it obviously wasn’t. It makes me question Justme’s sanity a little.

  248. 748

    RE: Erik @ 747

    Now that you have a son, articles like this might interest you. :) After you get to your passive income goal, you may want to turn to buy and hold strategies in higher appreciation neighborhoods.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/billionaire-investor-ron-baron-sees-the-dow-at-650000-in-50-years.html

  249. 749

    Get the Glass Carafe of Yuban and Pour yourself a Mug While reading:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, October 25, 2019
    Sketch of West Point Lighthouse
    A perfect spot to embrace the ‘Big Dark’ — and enjoy some sun breaks
    We’re heading into a stretch of sunny days, but we all know the Seattle area’s “Big Dark” will soon be back to stay … and stay. Rather than hide inside for months, Seattle Sketcher recommends feeling Mother Nature’s power at one of Seattle’s most awe-inspiring landscapes. (Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Detectives are investigating after a Seattle police officer opened fire last night on a group of armed men who were fighting in a West Seattle alley. One person was injured, but no one appears to have been hit by the officer’s bullets, police say.

    Historic central Ballard won’t get a $450 million light-rail tunnel, West Seattle won’t have a $200 million tunnel and Sodo won’t see a fully elevated trackway. Sound Transit’s board last night veered toward cheaper options (and by cheap, we mean hundreds of millions of dollars).

    A construction worker was critically injured yesterday when equipment fell on top of him at the East Link light-rail construction site in South Bellevue, fire officials say.

    The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation of itself. Its probe of the Russia investigation that was eventually led by special counsel Robert Mueller is likely to raise alarms that President Donald Trump is using the department to go after his perceived enemies.

    The final report on last year’s Boeing 737 MAX crash in Indonesia, released today, is a devastating critique of the design and certification of the jet’s flight-control system. It also describes a missed opportunity to fix the Lion Air jet, and provides a detailed account of the flight, up until the moment the pilots lost control and the plane plunged into the sea with 189 people aboard.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    YOUR FACE COULD GO HERE
    Humanoid robot
    Want to see your face plastered on a global fleet of humanoid robots for years to come? (No? We can’t imagine why not.) A British firm says a robotics company is almost done with its creation but needs a “kind and friendly” face that could end up on thousands of robots. Think about how much you’d charge for the rights to your face, because this comes with a paycheck. (Photo: Koji Sasahara / AP)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Washington’s giant and ridiculous-looking geoduck has long been prized in China, served at swanky tables and viewed by some as an aphrodisiac. But the market has cooled. With millions of dollars at stake every year, that’s bad news for our state.

    Did you hear that collective sigh of relief from Seahawks fans? Russell Wilson is raring to go this Sunday, despite his surprise appearance on the injury report. He’ll take on a struggling Atlanta defense. And it’s interesting how Super Bowl heartbreak can define a coach — or not. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks remain one of the NFL’s most successful teams, but Dan Quinn’s Falcons still have ice packs on their heads.

    Sitting down with your ballot this weekend? Keep our 2019 voter guide handy. More coverage:

    The Seattle School Board will have new faces representing North Seattle. In District 1, an artist is running against a boat designer; in District 3, the choice is being framed as experience vs. “youthful optimism.”
    Find The Seattle Times editorial board’s endorsements here.

    How is it late October already?! Get into the Halloween spirit with one of these events around the Seattle area, see a scary movie, or kick off Restaurant Week (here are 13 places with the best overall value). Or curl up inside with one of our Paperback Picks.
    Provided by Earshot Jazz
    Jazz is storytelling, creativity in conversation. Here’s your local experts’ guide to experiencing live jazz in Seattle, including a monthlong marathon festival with something for everyone – and 50 live jazz events in 15 venues.
    WORTH A READ
    California’s biggest utility admits it may have ignited a wildfire that burned 49 buildings in Sonoma County this week, despite blackouts imposed across the region to prevent blazes. And homes are burning today in Los Angeles-area neighborhoods, where as many as 50,000 people have been told to evacuate.

    Amazon is spending billions to accelerate its delivery speed. How does that pencil out? The company is sacrificing profits, but sales are up significantly. Some musicians, though, aren’t buying. They say Amazon’s contract with Immigration and Customs Enforcement hits a sour note.

    At the mysterious Ben Paris, a fancied-up Seattle comfort restaurant, you can order a special called The Supper Club and leave your fate in the hands of the talented chef. What happens next? Never quite what you think. But you’ll know exactly what you’re getting if you belly up to the Das Wagon food truck in White Center for a Seattle Dog. Das ist gut!

    The man was arrested on suspicion of drunken driving, but it turns out his stomach was brewing its own beer. Yes, that can happen. More bizarre news to end the week:

    The planet’s loudest bird looks like a Muppet and sounds like a pile driver. Have a listen.
    Up for a challenge? Try the haunted house that requires a 40-page waiver and a doctor’s approval.
    “The one who got away”: This is the weird tale of how a fugitive named Mr. Pig brought a hog-farming family through dark times.
    Oops! A guy who illegally parachuted from a cellphone tower ended up calling the cops on himself.

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    If TV shopping makes you feel dumb, it’s not you. Televisions have gotten very complicated very fast. Here’s what you need to know: LCD vs. OLED and other abbreviations demystified, the ideal refresh rate and the best time to buy.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Washington’s regulations for supervising tower-crane setup and disassembly are inadequate to manage the risky operations, as a deadly April 27 crane collapse showed. Better government oversight is necessary, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Look Ahead: The hottest Seattle events for November 2019
    Meet David Chen, one of Seattle’s most prolific podcasters
    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? Halloween events, Seattle Restaurant Week prep and more

    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Showers. High 57. Low 43. Sunrise 7:42. Sunset 6:03.

    SWE’s Take:

    The Mueller Report Was Completed months ago, its now the Durham “Criminal” Prosecutor Special Counsel and he wants the horrifying crooks who “illegally” spied/’falsely” setup Trump arrested and thrown in prison. Ask AG Barr if you don’t believe me. Get the news right Seattle Times.

    Wild Fires All Caused By Down Power Lines? What a joke Seattle Times, explain these pictures then:

    https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=AwrgDucVCbNdQjMAxXtXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByNWU4cGh1BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw–?p=homelessness+camp+fires+can+spark+wildfires+2019&fr=yset_ff_syc_hp

  250. 750
    Deerhawke says:

    By N @ 736:

    @Deerhawke – Yes, inventory is trending down compared to FY18 but if you were to look at the past few years it’s a healthy increase. This day in 2017 had standing inventory of 2,600, 26% LESS than today.

    Correct. Markets are not perfect. They overshoot and then undervalue and then do it again. It is only in the long term that markets are considered efficient. What is interesting to me is where the market is resetting after inventory that was too low (2016-Q2018) and then too high (Q2,3,4 2018). This year looks to be a Reset to a rather flat seasonal inventory curve between 3000 and 4750. I look at this as our natural frictional inventory rate. But this is, as the Tim has noted, is far from a balanced market when measured by Months of Supply.

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