NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,070 comments:

  1. 751
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 750 – I don’t see this market as having low/high inventory. Why do you think inventory was too high in Q2/3/4 2018 when it was still too low historically? What I see is a market that depends on FED to maintain (high) prices. The FED can’t allow prices to decline too much. Otherwise, we may well experience the 2007 reset or worse, again!

  2. 752
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 745

    >>The Primary function of an MLS is to List Houses and do whatever it takes to help them sell higher, not lower. You have a reverse mission.

    True. MLS (in general) and NWMLS in particular exist for the benefit of the sellers and the agents, to get the highest price and to generate commission. Selling agents compete for sellers by talking up the price they think a house will sell for, offering staging and the like, and by how high a price they got for houses they listed earlier. Sellers sign a contract with the seller, but in the end buyers are the ones that pays everything by bringing cash to the table. The system as a whole is asymmetrical and stacked against buyers, no doubt about it. And that is exactly why MLS systems should be publicly accessible (Yeah, blah blah they should be allowed to hide certain information like sellers phone number and whatnot information that should not be public).

  3. 753
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 746

    >>I can’t do that but I can operate the system with you present at a place with wifi if Erik agrees to be a chaperone. >> LOL!

    That’s an interesting idea, but I think we need to expand the chaperone concept to all buyers that deal with agents in person. Each buyer ought to have a chaperone or two with them, to ensure their financial safety and personal safety. We wouldn’t want any poor buyers to be taken advantage of in any way, shape or form, even if their personal risk may seem small overall.

    As far as watching NWMLS in action, the proposed scheme seems like more effort than the actual benefit warrants. It would be easy enough to post 2-3 screenshots somewhere and dropping me a link via private message on twitter, say. And having Erik as my chaperone might not be a real sweetener to the deal. I’m not sure he would protect me.

  4. 754
    JustNoise says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 746

    I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall for that meeting. Haha! Throw in Deerhawke, Eastsider and a couple more bubblers and things will be poppin off!

  5. 755
  6. 756
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 753

    Erik isn’t there to protect me. He’s there to keep you on point. Plus he’s my client which keeps the whole thing on the up and up. :)

    You already missed the point. Have you ever seen a screenshot of inside the mls? It’s proprietary. Erik and I can peruse it together. You can be a fly on the wall and learn something.

    He’s there to make sure you don’t take any pictures as you still dont seem to know what proprietary means.

  7. 757
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 753

    Erik isn’t there to protect me. He’s there to keep you on point. Plus he’s my client which keeps the whole thing on the up and up. :)

    You already missed the point. Have you ever seen a screenshot of inside the mls? It’s proprietary. Erik and I can peruse it together. You can be a fly on the wall and learn something.

    He’s there to make sure you don’t take any pictures as you still dont seem to know what proprietary means. There are parts you can’t see and no parts you can see in a screen shot take away.

    Sheesh!

  8. 758
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 757
    Can we all meet this Sunday at noon at the Starbucks on Rose Hill in Kirkland?

  9. 759
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 758

    A little too soon after my surgery Erik. I will be showing a townhouse nearby there but not a good time to be straining on stats. My right eye vision is not yet fully returned and my eye is blood red. A bit too Halloween looking.

    I’m thinking it would be helpful for him to match up the real stats with whatever he is using so he can resume his weekly stats reports. People liked them.

    Let’s see if he wants to face reality. :)

  10. 760
    whatsmyname says:

    *****WEEKEND UPDATE*****
    What a difference a little time makes. Six months ago inventory was more than 1,000 over 2018 inventory; now it’s more than 1,000 under 2018 inventory. More if we use the numbers set that compares with what was used in 2018.

    On the statistics front, bubble bears that made a hash of IRS statistics appear to be hoping that a little fine tuning on the MLS stats might eradicate the downward inventory trend seen in 19 out of 19 previous Octobers.

    Good luck with that.

  11. 761
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 759
    Hope your eye feels better soon. We can help set Justme on the right path after your eye heals a little more.

  12. 762

    RE: Erik @ 761

    Look at the warning label I have to wear on my wrist. It’s on my facebook page. I know I can’t fly with the air bubble in my eye but my daughter says I can’t even go to Snoqualmie Falls due to the elevation difference.

    I’m not going there but it made me wonder about my listing in Carnation that I have to go to a few times in the next 10 days or less.

    Does anyone know the difference in elevation to Tolt Hill 1725 290th Ave NE Carnation from Kirkland Bellevue? Erik, do you know how to read an elavation map? Apparently elevation exands the air bubble they put in my eye. Definitely no airplanes. Not sure why Tina is saying no Snoqualmie Falls.

    I know some of you guys here are better at these change in atmospheric pressure issues. Any advice appreciated.

  13. 763
    Justme says:

    Weekend update

    King County (Seattle+suburbs) SFR inventory: Data source X changed townhouse component of SFR so I have had to switch to source Y, and combine house+townhouse. Luckily, consistently defined data was available over a year backwards. More about the droop later. #seattlebubble.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1188181622463451136

  14. 764
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 762
    I’m doing a few dump runs tomorrow in Camano and that’s it. Text me if you need help. My truck is running and I have time to help you if you need to haul stuff to carnation tomorrow.

  15. 765
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 762
    Altitude at your address in carnation(Ames Lake) is 522ft and average altitude of Kirkland is 203ft, which is a change in altitude of 319ft. I’d be conservative and call it a change in altitude of 522ft because Kirkland altitude probably goes to zero in places since it’s on the water. If your doctor is telling you that you cannot go above 522ft, I’d ask you to not put your health at risk to sell this house. The rest of us clients need you healthy.

  16. 766
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 760
    What is your theory on the inventory drop?

  17. 767

    No Wonder Our Seattle Area Public Schools are Subpar and Won’t Teach Math and Science Right

    The Seattle Local School Board Open Border Party Snowflakes now call math RACIST….LOL

    https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/21/seattle-schools-math-is-racist/

    I’m a math major, I better put on my “white” KKK dunce hat for being evil….LOL….forget about finding a Seattle area home near good public schools with this horrifying culture, its doomed. Thank God for Community Colleges and makeup the high school training in math there, get that high school diploma “somehow” first.

  18. 768

    RE: Erik @ 765
    Hi Erik, I’m worried about Ardell Too

    From the article retina tears or glaucoma [?] “blinding” forming is referenced and yes keeping eye pressure low can cure or slow its progression per science article below:

    https://www.medhelp.org/posts/Eye-Care/Effect-of-high-elevation-altitude-on-retina-or-IOP-/show/705501

    Here’s another likely cure, smoke pot [God forbid, don’t vape it]; assuming the retina anomaly is glaucoma. They knew this as far back as 1971. After a good bag of weed high, the eye pressure goes down. Its a mild euphoric, not a mild stimulant like coffee.

    I’d be asking a “bunch” of doctors for opinions if it were my eye sight at stake. Even the holistic CBD doctors.

    https://www.healthline.com/health/marijuana-and-glaucoma

    BTW, the first symptoms of Glaucoma are deterioration of edge view eye sight….I have a friend who’s got it too, so its common.

  19. 769

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 766 – It’ll be that somehow he’ll be able to buy a mansion on Queen Anne for $50,000 after the crash that must be coming.

  20. 770
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 766 – The simple answer is that more people have been buying and fewer people have been listing
    I think the underlying reasons are that people got a little panicky about Amazon and the length of the improving market. Over time that has been subsiding, plus there are still new people coming in. Also there is some movement toward the less expensive and therefore less daunting parts of the market

  21. 771
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: MIKAL JOHNSON @ 769 – Scarcer inventory does not lower prices, let alone cause comic book crashes. Did I get your meaning wrong? If not, you want to put down that crack pipe.

  22. 772
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 770
    Appreciate the response.

    Seems to me the two elements you mention would normally be associated with rising prices.

    That isn’t really what we’re seeing, which tends to reinforce my belief that the dramatic reduction in purchases from China has removed one of the key inflators away from the market.

    Combine this with the fact that we have now seen multiple months where only about one in 10 home purchases sees more than one bidder, and it appears to me that a lot of people aren’t listing their homes because they don’t think they will get it the price they want.

    It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues, and if people start to feel a sense of urgency to sell their homes before prices go down any further.

  23. 773
    OA says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 772

    That’s an interesting point, that many are hesitant to list because they don’t think they’ll get the price they want. Would make sense why many more listed the last 1.5 years (hence why inventory increased during that time span) to cash in before prices dropped even lower. Now that prices have somewhat stabilized, that is that why less are selling?

    Just talking aloud here, feel free to challenge this particular view/interpretation.

  24. 774
    S-Crow says:

    RE: OA @ 773RE: Juststoppedby @ 772 – speaking of talk about selling or not…..

    I met with some client’s early last week who were refinancing and we ended up talking about debt reduction and haves some common interests. They said they were considering selling to “reset” themselves and get out of the debt they have. The point was that while refinancing was helping it didn’t help enough. They want to sell and ended up disclosing that their agent was telling them to get it on the market as soon as possible because of no confidence the market would improve. Worse, it could become more difficult if similar scenarios rear up and people become “must-sell” sellers.

    That my friends is the “in the trenches” reality.

    3.5%- 3.75% Interest rates are supporting the market and even then, large Metro area sales and prices continue to have problems.

    If you want to be a bug on the wall in real estate, I don’t care what Escrow firm you use….you should be a bug on the wall in Escrow….just insane insight into the market.

  25. 775
    Deerhawke says:

    Interesting article in the Business Section of The NY Times this weekend. An economist’ view on the question of why we have such high real estate commissions.

    How to Get a Better Deal from Your Real Estate Agent

    By Justin Wolfers

    When I bought a home a few months ago, my real estate agent handed me a check worth tens of thousands of dollars — a rebate on his commission. Windfalls like that could become more common if home buyers demand better deals.

    Typically an agent earns a commission of perhaps 2.5 to 3 percent of the value of the home you buy, and the agent for the seller pockets a similar sum. So if you buy a million-dollar home, your agent earns around $30,000 for what might be only a few dozen hours of work.

    When the stakes are this high, it’s worth shopping around.

    I called local Michigan real estate agents, asking whether they would work on a fee-for-service basis. Jon Boyd of the Home Buyer’s Agent of Ann Arbor agreed. He charged $120 per hour, which added up to nearly $7,000. But he passed along the additional commission he otherwise would have received. (To preserve his privacy and mine, I won’t say exactly how much, but it was a lot more.)

    This arrangement was a good deal for me: The check furnished my house. It was good for Mr. Boyd, too, although to see why, you need to appreciate how wasteful our current system is.. The problem, as an important study shows, is that the market for real estate agents is broken.

    The study is “Can Free Entry Be Inefficient? Fixed Commissions and Social Waste in the Real Estate Industry,” by the economists Chang-Tai Hsieh, a professor at the University of Chicago, and Enrico Moretti, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. They pointed out that the total in commissions paid for selling a home — as much as 6 percent, when agents for both sellers and buyers are taken into account — appears to be stuck at a high rate.

    When I teach Economics 101, I tell my students that in a well-functioning market, high prices — like the commissions paid to most agents — rarely persist for long, because competitors will offer discounts to attract more customers. But for the most part, that doesn’t appear to have happened for real estate agents. That’s because the house seller typically sets and pays the commission that goes to the buyer’s agent. This arrangement appears to have neutered competition over commission rates.

    It ensures that relatively few individual sellers deviate from the norm of paying high commission rates, because if they did, buyers’ agents might respond by steering clients toward someone else’s house. So while sellers would like to cut commission rates, it’s generally not in an individual’s interests to be the first to do so.

    Some homeowners opt out of the whole system and sell their homes without agents, but most stick with the high-commission norm. As a result, competition has done little to reduce real estate commissions.
    But the high commissions haven’t made most real estate agents rich: The median agent earned $48,690 in 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Instead, the commissions have created a bloated and unproductive sector. That’s because the possibility of earning enormous commissions is so powerful an incentive that it has led thousands of people to become real estate agents.

    When lots of agents chase a limited number of deals, many of them end up underemployed, working on only a handful of deals annually.

    For example, the 2,773 New York City real estate agents employed by Douglas Elliman Real Estate closed 5,979 transactions last year, an average of only two deals per agent. (These numbers come from the annual report of Vector Group, Douglas Elliman’s parent company.)

    Informal industry estimates suggest that agents generally spend only a few dozen hours working on each deal and doing the things that home buyers value, like showing houses, evaluating prices, negotiating with sellers and coordinating inspections.

    Even if the agents in the New York example worked as many as 100 hours on each of their two deals, they would have spent only a small fraction of their time directly helping their clients. Instead, by most accounts, real estate agents generally spend the bulk of their time trawling for fresh business.

    From a broad economic perspective, much of this is wasted effort. Agents are like gold miners panning for a big nugget — a buyer purchasing an expensive home! — that will make their year. Just as some prospectors get rich, so do some agents. But most spend their days in a fruitless search for pay dirt.
    That’s why Mr. Boyd was happy to work for an hourly fee. I asked him, in effect, to take a few hours off prospecting in exchange for a guaranteed hourly rate. He said he was better off earning $120 per hour from me than sitting in his office hoping for a new client to call.

    I’ve been unable to determine how common such arrangements are. Rich Harty, president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents, said, “It’s very unusual.” I asked other agents whether they would work on a fee basis, and many refused. Smaller independent agents and agents who represented only buyers (“exclusive buyers agents”) were more receptive.

    The antitrust division of the Department of Justice has long encouraged this sort of competition, and it reports that rebates like the one I received are legal in 40 states, including Michigan, California, Texas, Florida and New York.

    Yoreevo, a Manhattan start-up, says it rebates two-thirds of the commission it earns in home real estate deals, while providing the same services as other agents. James McGrath, the company’s founder, said he could afford to do this because “the cost of the service is not that significant.” Instead, he added, for most brokers, “the real cost is client acquisition.”

    If successful, his business model could upend the industry. “The lower commission allows you to get more clients,” he said, “and more clients allows you to get away with a lower commission.” For home buyers, that could mean better deals. Indeed, if you look hard, those deals may already be out there.

    Justin Wolfers is a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. Follow him on Twitter: @justinwolfers.

  26. 776
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 772

    ———-
    Seems to me the two elements you mention would normally be associated with rising prices.
    ———-

    Good point. Inventory is reverting to a lower trajectory. It seems to be made up of more stale listings and fewer new listings. Meanwhile pendings and sales are pretty healthy. So great question, why are prices not going up?

    I would love to hear other people’s opinions on this. My view Is
    1) Prices have already run up a lot so we are in an adjustment period. A breather.
    2) Politics matters. We have a President in the middle of a damaging impeachment inquiry and clearly he should be removed from office (but probably will not be). We are coming into an election year. Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

  27. 777

    Sell Your House Today and Smile, Singing, “Ding Dong the Wicked ISIS Witch is Dead!”

    Now fill your Mugs With Yuban and read:

    The Seattle Times
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    Elite U.S. Army commandos blasted into a Syrian hideout and sent the leader of the Islamic State group running the last steps of his life. Details are emerging today of the daring weekend raid that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but the fight against the group is far from over. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump described watching Al-Baghdadi’s last moments and then went to the World Series, where he got no break from his critics.

    Traffic alert: Expect delays today, and possibly all week, because of a southbound lane closure on the Aurora Bridge. Inspectors found “advanced deterioration of steel” on the bridge. Check traffic here.

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    Partly cloudy. High 52. Low 32. Sunrise 7:47. Sunset 5:58.
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    SWE’s Take

    The Boeing MAX 8 safety culture was managed by Asian business partners, who approach safety engineering as an unnecessary cost IMO. In America we do the opposite. There are many cultural differences between America and Asians, read “Rising Sun” by Michael Crichton, this was true in 1992 as in 2019 too…it spells it out clearly with detailed “history” examples why their economic success is driven by WAR with its business competitors. Should we become like them? Hades no. They would plunge ahead with no clue versus find the MAX blames, which are shames to them.

    Snow soon? If these freezing mornings are met with a low pressure moisture drift, you bet, lots of October snow history in Seattle’s Freezes. Get out the chains early? Summer’s over.

  28. 778

    I’ve Been Relating Much of Seattle’s MAX 8 Safety Problems With Lack of Safety Engineering By Asian Cultures, now that its Manufacturing is Basically Outsourced to Asia

    In 1992 it became clear that our educational direction in America went backward, 1/3 of high school graduates are illiterate. Period. Our American college physics classes had almost all foreign nationals in the classroom, most of students were Asia or from India. Many returned to their Communist/Socialist motherlands with American industrial secrets and PhDs, as their standards of living in their own countries and education significantly topped ours. Read Michael Crichton’s Rising Sun, 1992, it will scare the Hades out of you and its still true in 2019. We’ve lost all our American engineering muscle and replaced it with MASS MORE attorneys instead…math is now Racist? LOL

    So grovel around and find a good public school in Seattle, good luck. LOL

  29. 779

    RE: Deerhawke @ 776

    It’s not just a matter of supply and demand. The upward trajectory is fueled not simply by having more buyers than sellers, but having buyers who act in unison and quickly after the home hits the market. That 85% (up from 66% and now down to 10%) of sales that happened in the first few days in bidding wars is very different than the same number of buyers and sellers, but an average days on market of at least a couple of weeks.

    If something is going to sell for more than asking , it will happen in a few days and the days of $100,000 over asking or 10% over asking as the norm is dependent on people being quick on the trigger.

    Watch days on market. I think we’re back to the norm being 97% to 98% of asking and sometimes off the first price reduction vs off the Original List Price.

    If all the houses sell…but take 40 days to sell vs 4 days, that in and of itself will cause a flat to declining market, and I think that is what is happening. Even 14 days vs 4 days has an impact.

  30. 780
    OA says:

    By Deerhawke @ 776:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 772

    ———-
    Seems to me the two elements you mention would normally be associated with rising prices.
    ———-

    Good point. Inventory is reverting to a lower trajectory. It seems to be made up of more stale listings and fewer new listings. Meanwhile pendings and sales are pretty healthy. So great question, why are prices not going up?

    I would love to hear other people’s opinions on this. My view Is
    1) Prices have already run up a lot so we are in an adjustment period. A breather.
    2) Politics matters. We have a President in the middle of a damaging impeachment inquiry and clearly he should be removed from office (but probably will not be). We are coming into an election year. Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

    I agree with all of your points except #2. I would argue that Trump not getting re-elected would do more damage to the economy. As much as people hate him, hard to deny the fact that the economy thrived under him (how much credit he should get for it is up to debate). Safe to say that if the economy was struggling right now everybody would be blaming him.

    The uncertainty lies in the credit bubble popping sooner than later, not Trump.

  31. 781
    Eastsider says:

    Here is a headline story in today’s WSJ (paywall) –

    Falling Rates Boost Mortgage Market to Precrisis Levels
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-rates-boost-mortgage-market-to-precrisis-levels-11572267165

    This market is clearly being supported by low interest rates. Housing is simply too expensive and unaffordable to many people on their current income. We should not be surprised that both prices and inventory decline at the same time. It is similar to using heavy discounting and 7yr loans to move car inventory that is unaffordable to begin with. IMO many buyers today are financially weak and will ultimately default on their mortgages when recession hits. They are effectively renters.

    I mentioned this earlier – Seattle new homes median sale price is down -7.1% YoY. Prices are still dropping despite lower rates.

    US 10yr hits 1.86% this morning. This is an increase of 40 basis points (or .4%) from the low eight weeks ago. If 30yr mortgage rates hit 4%, 2020 will be another down year.

  32. 782
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 757

    Nice try with the deflective back-pedaling on the smear you wrote, Ardell, but you cannot undo it. You could admit your errant ways, promise not to make such unfounded allegations again, apologize and get on with it. That would be better.

  33. 783
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 782
    You have vigor and tenacity here on Seattle Bubble. I don’t agree with you, and we are both interested in real estate, and I like that we both have that common interest. My recommendation fwiw is to channel that energy into buying houses, remodeling them, renting them out, and refinancing them. The worst that can happen is you’ll lose your deposit. The upside is you can quit working for money eventually and kick back. Rewrite those scared little voices in your head and get going. If you get stuck or need a contact, me or someone more experienced on here will try and help you. What do you have to lose you are so scared about, a deposit?

    If you want to know the truth, I’m super stressed right now. I’m remodeling my primary residence and I have that house I just bought in Seattle that needs to be remodeled. I’m taking 2 weeks off work and sleeping onsite at the remodel for 2 weeks. It’s going to be painful for my family. The reason I’m telling you this is because we all have stress. It feels sometimes like the more stress I undergo, the more money I make. After some success, you’ll build confidence and become more capable of taking on more stress. Just buy something and live in it home you fix it up if you are just starting. The first step is the hardest step. If you continue analyzing, you’ll never get far.

  34. 784
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 783

    LOL, now Erik is starting to deflect and backpedal, too. Are you remorseful about being such a White Knight, Erik?

    I have no buyer stress, I wont buy at the peak.

  35. 785
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 784
    I don’t understand. Why would I be remorseful for offering to help my friend? Ardell has helped me immensely and I owe her anyway.

  36. 786
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 779

    Thanks Ardell. Thoughtful as usual. I hope you are feeling better.

    Alas without an MLS membership, we non-agents don’t really have a way to get average days on market, combined days on market, etc.

  37. 787
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 784
    If you are too scared to jump, you should accept that and move forward. You are trying to prove to yourself it’s a bad time to buy by tricking others into believing what you believe and ultimately hurting them. You should be socially responsible and stop.

  38. 788
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 776
    I believe prices didn’t go up last spring because we are at the end of a business cycle. Other countries are falling down while we remain strong because of all the tariff money we are taking in. I believe the end of business cycle recession will look like a price stall and then prices will shoot up even higher as prices generally do after a business cycle. I kinda think the drop may already be over and this spring may be strong and then we get a few strong years at which point I’ll sell some more stuff so I can be well positioned for the next recession, which may be a lot bigger.

    You asked for opinions, so there is mine.

  39. 789
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 779
    Good one Ardell! Sounds like you are saying days on market will magnify the decrease or increase of price changes. That said, the double digit price increases are likely gone for a while as the mad rush to Seattle has died down for now.

    Once one of these Seattle startups hit it big, we will be off to the races again.

  40. 790
    N says:

    @Ardell – Thank you, I’ve been wondering your thoughts now that fall is here.

    On the front page here there is a graph that shows average DOM of around 74, looks like it was in the 40’s in May – this is Seattle specific.

  41. 791
    Any says:

    By Erik @ 788:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 776
    Other countries are falling down while we remain strong because of all the tariff money we are taking in.

    Amazing how in one post you’re telling Justme to be socially responsible, and in the very next post you’re parroting Trump nonsense as if it is gospel. The tariffs are NOT helping the economy at all. Only somebody ignorant of the economics of it would believe they are. Only Trump would claim they are because he spouts so much nonsense to begin with that nobody bothers to question him on a lot of it anymore.

    I say this as somebody who is FOR the tariffs. Its short term pain that is IMO needed to stop the current status quo we and our companies have with China. However, tariffs are only hurting the economy today, not helping. How the hell is tariff money helping the economy? It is a drop in the bucket compared to the massive deficit the government is running. The largest impacts of the tariffs would be consumers having less purchasing power and potentially companies creating / implementing plans to pull manufacturing and chains out of China. The tariff money itself is relatively meaningless.

  42. 792
    richard says:

    Another great video from real vision. it covers the Vancouver and Seattle real estate. It covers topics like condo speculation and Chinese buyer behavior. It’s great to see some candid realtors talk about the market. Sad thing is there seems no silver lining for “middle class”(Non high Tech) buyer. Permanent expensive Seattle is the phase I don’t like but it seems to be the reality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjWdND8Q5BY

  43. 793
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: OA @ 780

    We tend to think of politics and economics as occurring in different silos. But that is not really the way it works. All of this chaos in our national politics affects buying decisions. A lot of people right now are tempted to jump in, really tempted. Prices are more negotiable, interest rates are down, commutes are getting worse by the day, etc. But still they hesitate.

    Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

  44. 794
    OA says:

    By Deerhawke @ 793:

    RE: OA @ 780

    We tend to think of politics and economics as occurring in different silos. But that is not really the way it works. All of this chaos in our national politics affects buying decisions. A lot of people right now are tempted to jump in, really tempted. Prices are more negotiable, interest rates are down, commutes are getting worse by the day, etc. But still they hesitate.

    Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

    I understand that, if I was a buyer for a first time home, my biggest hesitation would be if I bought a house and then prices dramatically fell, leaving me with a mortgage that’s underwater. It would be less to do with political chaos, which has always existed and always will. There has been a crazy amount of perceived political instability since Trump took office 3 years ago, and during that time we’ve experienced a crazy bull run. At the end of the day, markets will respond how things actually are versus perception.

    I know plenty of people that are looking for homes, and ALL of them are hesitant because of where prices will head, not necessarily political instability.

  45. 795
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 791
    Thank you for the information.

  46. 796
    Erik says:

    RE: Any @ 791
    We are bringing in enough to make inflation near zero. When inflation is near zero, borrowing rates can be lower without impact to the economy. Next step is to lower rates more and lift the economy a few more years.

  47. 797
    richard says:

    RE: Erik @ 796 skyhigh housing cost is not inflation?

  48. 798
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 797
    Go to Cleveland Ohio. My wife bought a house there 2013 and sold in 2017 and made a whopping $8k profit after putting $8k into remodel. Seattle is a raging bull and will likely be moving forward. Sky high is what Seattle is now.

  49. 799
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Any @ 791

    +1. Solid post.

    Erik you really should diversify your reading beyond extreme right-wing sources. Trump is not a credible source. Take a course or two in economics. It will be enlightening.

    Let me put it this way. Would you take engineering advice from English majors who took their last math course in 9th or 10th Grade?

  50. 800
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: OA @ 794

    Ok, so you say politics and perceptions don’t matter. Clearly I don’t get it. Please explain.

    Why would people believe home prices are going to fall now? What in the economic fundamentals has changed? What is different —economically— from 2016 or 2017 ?

  51. 801
    N says:

    2018 happened. Double digit stock market gains were wiped out in Q4 and Seattle Real Estate ended it’s streak of being #1 in the nation and dropped 10%. People have short memories and were in the it’s going to go up for ever mindset… until 2018.

    Fundamentals – There seems to be a widely held recognition, including by the Fed, that we are at least in a slowdown. Across the nation real estate has slowed. Don’t tell that to the stock market though, and the 20% YTD returns.

    I’m one of those on the fence and politics doesn’t get any consideration for me when considering when to pull the trigger (If it did it would be local city politics) BUT I suspect your right, for many Seattlites it no doubt does.

  52. 802
    OA says:

    By Deerhawke @ 800:

    RE: OA @ 794

    Ok, so you say politics and perceptions don’t matter. Clearly I don’t get it. Please explain.

    Why would people believe home prices are going to fall now? What in the economic fundamentals has changed? What is different —economically— from 2016 or 2017 ?

    It’s easy to blame the current politician in office especially if you’re on the other side of the aisle, that’s just an easy excuse to use whether you’re on the right or the left depending on who’s in office. I’m not saying you don’t understand anything, I just don’t buy the “we have a crazy dude as president so that means that everything will tank eventually and everyone is hesitant” view.

    As for what will cause prices to fall (disclaimer: I’m a homeowner, and not permabear and look forward to buying more real estate), many households (especially in seattle) are over-leveraged, the minute the husband or the wife gets laid off (as recession hits) they can no longer afford $4-5k monthly payments. It’s just reality, the prices are not affordable for many people here. Can I be wrong about prices dropping? Yes! I think we’re going through a correction right now locally, we shall see if they drop further and how much further is the question. Just my 2 cents..

  53. 803
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 799
    I took a couple economics courses in undergrad as electives because they were easy. We spent most the time trying to teach business majors how to read a graph.

    I think you are going to have a difficult time criticizing SWE and I for lack of education as we both have advanced degrees and lots of other education to go with it. We both constantly learn and take classes as necessary throughout life. You’ve been pretty disrespectful to both of us for having different beliefs than you. That doesn’t seem fair and I just didn’t expect you to act that way. I guess you never really know anyone on here until you’ve met them. You tricked us.

  54. 804
    Deerhawke says:

    Erik, it is nothing personal. Truly, I wish you well.

    It is just that when you say the things you said about tariffs and when you claim that Trump is the only one who understands the economy, then you show us that you are believing stuff without processing it.

    My view is that this is not a healthy approach to business (or life) and can lead you to get blindsided.

  55. 805
    N says:

    For all those data hungry folks on this forum, have you looked at the altos data, accessible on the front page by clicking on the graph on the far right. If you look at the data after clicking over to Altos you’ll see some interesting data:

    48% of SFH have a price reduction. Interestingly, the biggest % in this category is for the bottom 4th of the market.
    SFH inventory is actually Higher YOY (this is Seattle ONLY).
    Condo inventory is Lower YOY by around 30% (Seattle only)
    SFH medium price up YOY
    Medium condo price down $100k YOY.

  56. 806
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 801

    ” Seattle Real Estate ended it’s streak of being #1 in the nation and dropped 10%.”

    The first part of this statement may be true, but where did you see that 10% price drop figure for 2018?

    Are you taking the highest month vs the lowest month in a calendar year? You know that is not the way its done, right? Measure MOM or YOY but there is always a drop from top month to bottom month in a given year. That is apples and oranges because it is a different composition of inventory.

    I think it is more like a drop of 4% maximum YOY in May or June of this year. And by August of this year, King County and Seattle were both about even to where they were for the same month of 2018– and a bit ahead of 2017 by the way.

    A lot of the bearish sentiment on this site reminds me a lot of 2014. We had a few sluggish months and suddenly everybody was talking about 2008 again.

  57. 807
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 806 – Methinks you are super sensitive about negative news about housing. @N was talking about Q4 2018. Actually, it was 11%, not 10% according to your favorite newspaper lol. And it can repeat again at this elevated level if rates move higher or the economy tanks.

    Seattle-area home prices drop again — down 11 percent in last six months
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-prices-drop-again-with-6-month-decline-among-largest-ever/

  58. 808
    sfrz says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 807 – It’s everywhere. This party’s over.

    “Five of the 11 big metros with the steepest jumps in price reductions were in the Golden State. So, who’s lowering asking prices the most? Silicon Valley. The San Jose metro area’s 115% jump in its discounting rate over the past 12 months meant 15.9% of sellers had cut their asking price.”

    “In Southern California, more sellers are cutting prices, too. Los Angeles and Orange counties had the No. 7 jump with 28% increased discounting. As for the Inland Empire, it had the 11th-largest growth in price cuts: Up to 16.1% (No. 28) from 13.7% (No. 20) — an 18% increase. Big California upswings in discounts were also found in San Francisco. A 67% jump, to No. 3 nationally, pushed price-cutting to 12.2% of listings.”

    “Now remember, cutting listing prices is no guarantee that house hunters will bite. That’s likely a reason why you see some of the nation’s once-hottest housing markets filling out the Top 10 for increased price cut. Las Vegas had the second-biggest surge in reductions, running to 22.5% this year from 12.3% a year — an 82% jump. No. 4 was Seattle, 14.6% from 9.3% — a 56% increase. Then there was No. 6 Denver: 18.1% from 13.8% — up 31%; No. 8 Atlanta: 15.1% from 12.3% — up 23%; No. 9 Salt Lake City: 19.6% from 16.1% — up 22%; and No. 10 Kansas City: 13.2% from 10.9% — up 21%.” https://douglasdigitaldaily.com/california-homeowners-slashing-asking-prices-at-post-recession-high/

  59. 809
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 804
    I don’t really know that much about politics. I just think agent orange is an interesting character and our economy has boomed under him. I looked up the federal deficit last night and saw trump is increasing our national debt. So I don’t know, I just try to continue my accent out of the paycheck to paycheck lifestyle. Trump could be a total scammer, I don’t really know.

    I read the stuff you write and I think you are the one person that I could really learn from. I’m not taking anything personal, I can see that you don’t especially like me and I was hoping to learn from you as I learned from other knowledgeable people on here. I attribute my good fortune to people on here that know real estate very well like Corndogs, Ray Pepper, Ardell, Tim, etc. I don’t know there which political party they adopted and I don’t really care. I have no party loyalty, so no reason to attack me.

    Here is my request.. Please share real estate stuff. I may be a Democrat next year if I determine Trump screwed over America. I have no affiliation to these stupid political parties. I think the political parties are hurting America. I wish we had the freedom to just vote for the best person for the job.

  60. 810
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 808
    Sounds like software hiring has paused for the moment.

  61. 811
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 805
    That’s a big decrease for condos. I may have to hold my condos long term. No complaints there.

    I clicked on Altos and to use it they want money. Do you work for them or something? I’ll find free information elsewhere.

  62. 812
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 809
    I believe everyone that is extremely passionate about which party has been brainwashed by the RNC or the DNC. Look around, the world we live in is controlled by these parties and both are corrupt as hell. The more news people watch the more brainwashed they become. I’ve seen this happen with my parents and grandparents and it repulses me to see Americans are taking the bait.

    DNC/RNC chooses the the agenda and how they will spin it in their favor and then tells the news channels they are funding which is all of them. Sometimes it’s flat out lies. In your younger days, the news was real and ny times and Washington post did great work. Now they are controlled by political agendas. I believe that I am smarter by not allowing the political parties to control my mind. I read trump tweets mostly for entertainment and to see what is probably going to happen with our economy. I’m sure that source is corrupt too, but he’s been pretty accurate in my opinion. I read the tweets and I wait to see what plays out. The tweets have actually been very accurate about what’s going to happen. He says interest rates are going lower. Federal reserve says that’s not happening. A couple months later rates go lower. If trump tweets help me see what’s coming, then I’ll keep reading them.

  63. 813
    N says:

    @Erik – When you go to Altos enter the city you want to look up in the box and hit enter. No cost for that data.

  64. 814
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 813
    Thank you!!!!!

  65. 815
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 814
    Note: it works! I had to start typing Seattle and then select it when it pops up. If you type in Seattle and press enter, it doesn’t work.

  66. 816
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 807

    OK. But by that same standard, somehow we did not see the headline on the opposite side of the price movement in May 2019. Maybe it should have read “2019 Home Prices up nearly 15%, Gaining by $100,000.”

    Instead the news that month focused on the fact that we were down a bit from the previous year. Which is the right approach.

  67. 817
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 816 – “2019 Home Prices up nearly 15%, Gaining by $100,000” – That statement is simply false.

    Here is Zillow’s chart (Warning: Ugly)
    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

    And of course New Home prices have continued its decline through May 2019. New Home prices are mostly not subject to seasonality.

  68. 818

    RE: Any @ 791 – That’s Why I Like Deerhawk

    I’m sure he supports the Open Border Party establishments in general, but is also quick to highlight the hypocrisies of blue dog dems too, along with Trump’s human record with bluntness. One thing we need is to all get along to make Seattle area great for real estate buying.

    I have many Open Border Party friends and everyone should also welcome Trump supporters/buyers with open arms too….lest we decrease the housing sales demand over petty politics. Here’s an URL proving my point, its about California, but equally applies to Sanctuary State Wash St IMO.

    https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/californians-flee-the-state-in-droves-over-taxation-and-housing-costs_03202018

  69. 819

    RE: Deerhawke @ 816

    The whole thing becomes a big pile of nonsense when you don’t separate the stats into North King vs South King or North Seattle vs South Seattle. The median price variance is enormous and mixing them together when doing stats just gives you a pile of not relevant to anyone.

    Don’t get frustrated trying to make sense of the numbers. The news is no different than when we last “spoke”. The market is flat to slightly down. It went down 10% after going up and up…so a correction. It came back 10% and will lose a bit post Spring Bump…as usual. Weak products are suffering more than they have in years. Strong products are flat to slightly up.

    Not a good time to overpay for a teardown or lot. Flippers who buy the right product in the right place likely have the most to gain…but many buy the WHTF Wrong House to Flip. The winners of this market will be those who buy those solid bones houses in great locations that are not turnkey. The minor improvements they make just to make themselves happy will more than compensate for future market weakness.

    Losers will be the buyers of new construction, not the sellers of new construction, as long as the builders are not overly optimistic when buying their next project(s). Don’t invest in any weak locations…busy road, weak schools.

    On a side note, the market weakness is not as evident in the stats (ran some this morning) as it is in what is happening in the market. The quality of the buyer pool as to financing and the obstacles to their being able to buy is dropping without impacting the stats dramatically. Moving from a market with enough over qualified buyers to one with iffy buyers getting their offers accepted. The biggest pent up buyer pool were the people who couldn’t compete in the stronger market that ran for years on end.

    In other words, you’ll still sell that new house for roughly the price you did before, but the buyer more likely to be contingent on the sale of their house. The move up buyers are out in high numbers…with contingent on the sale of their house offers.

    Never get riled up about who is right on the “King County” stats. Full County stats aren’t relevant to anyone except people who like to talk about real estate. No one ever is influenced by the full County stats.

    1st Quarter 2020 may look different, but historically 1st Quarter has half the number of sales as the other 3 quarters in the year. So expect 4th quarter 2019 to be up slightly YOY, down slightly MOM.

    Whether or not there will be a significant drop in the next 3 years is still a 50/50 shot and more likely than a big run up. Nothing will change that forecast until we get to and past the Presidential Election.

  70. 820

    RE: sfrz @ 808

    My Kansas City Flipper Investment SFH Went up 100% in about 4 years

    While my property taxes decreased from $580/half year [2017] to $500/half year [2019]….that a 14% decrease in property tax escrow. King County looks like a complete joke in comparison. When do the SFH prices in Kansas City home go down? They’re already cheap as Hades, even double priced. Grab ’em up either way, and get the Hades out of insane priced/taxed Seattle? LOL

  71. 821
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 819 – This is a pretty balanced summary. I believe high end is still in correction. Marginal buyers are holding up the lower tier market. Today’s buyers are not as strong financially as those 5 years ago. Many will not survive next economic downturn. We have seen this movie many times before (a recession).

  72. 822
    N says:

    Deerhawke – you asked what changed and I gave you my opinion, that the drop felt a lot more dramatic and changed the sentiment towards the market. You can argue, but as yourself and many others have acknowledged the sentiment shifted.

  73. 823

    RE: Eastsider @ 821

    “Today’s buyers are not as strong financially as those 5 years ago. Many will not survive next economic downturn. We have seen this movie many times before (a recession).”

    Difference is it is not because there aren’t as many that are strong financially. It’s just that when the smart money left the room, it created a space for those who previously couldn’t compete with them due to weaker credentials or the need to be contingent on the sale of their currently owned primary home.

    There are still just as many strong buyers who are choosing to rent. Some of them sold to rent. In the higher prices it is because of the change in the mortgage interest deduction. The disadvantage of renting vs buying pretty much diminished. So without the strong promise of appreciation and without the mortgage interest deduction on the bulk of the interest paid…why buy?

    People don’t talk about the loss of mortgage interest deduction and its impact on the market enough. To just say “high end” is weak suggests somehow the people who could previously buy them can no longer afford to. That is not the case. They just don’t see the benefit.

  74. 824
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 822

    Actually, I agree. Whatever the numbers say, sometimes it is the headline and the market sentiment that rules. For a long time (too long) the market was a crazy with over-eager buyers, privileged sellers, zero inventory, multiple offers etc. Then when that market started to falter, people were convinced that the end was nigh and this was the return of 2008. In fact, the market fell, but then mainly recovered with some changes.

    I tend to take the longer view and hope that the shifts in either direction could be either a threat or an opportunity.

    For my building business, I will probably have to offer a nicer product in a nicer location at a somewhat lower price. Of course my margin will suffer a bit, but I will still do fine. I have a distinctive product and it will sell but will take more time. For my rental business, a downturn represents an opportunity to buy to hold long-term.

  75. 825
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 823 – Here is what I wrote earlier in this thread (comment @310) –

    Here is another reason why the claim that mortgage deduction is having an impact is nonsensical. The 52-week high on 30yr mortgage rate was 5.05%. Today, it is 3.72%. (Source:mortgagenewsdaily.com). That is a 26% discount from the high. So you get reduced mortgage payment via Fed’s rate cut instead of IRS tax deduction.

    People are not buying for many reasons. Loss of MID is not one of them.

  76. 826
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 823

    Ardell, two solid and well considered posts. Thanks for putting in the time. It looks like you are back in fighting trim.

  77. 827

    RE: Eastsider @ 825

    You are incorrect. That’s pretty much all I can say. You are trying to rationalize why they shouldn’t. But that doesn’t make it so. People already refinanced to the lower rate, so coming up with some rationale based on some previous higher rate is invalid. It’s as wrong as agents and lenders who think you should be grateful when rates go up because they are better than some previous even higher rate. No one cares. Do the math. How much do they lose under the new tax law at today’s rates? What rates used to be in comparison doesn’t matter.

    I think you may be speaking of why you aren’t going to sell for this reason, but I don’t think you own a true “high end” house if you only consider the top 1/3rd of North King Sales without mixing in the low tier of South King. Over 1.5 Million on the Eastside is being impacted. That’s what I call “high end”.

  78. 828
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 827 – There is no point in arguing. Just look at what it costs in May 2018 vs today to buy an upper end home. You may include MID ‘saving’. It costs a lot less to buy that same house today because of lower mortgage rates. If you disagree, prove it!

  79. 829

    RE: Eastsider @ 828

    If you want to hang your hat on a short term up blip in May of 2018 then you aren’t paying attention. The selloff started in 2017. To think that the mortgage interest deduction doesn’t matter is really just silly. It’s always mattered. But it’s also likely that it will return in full force.. This is a tax law change that I don’t expect to hold long term. Just as Trump tried to reverse anything Obama did, the next President will try to reverse everything Trump did. So makes sense for some to sit on the sidelines.

    The people who did sell or didn’t buy had other reasons and the tax deduction reason was not the ONLY reason. If they were thinking of selling in the next few years they did it to get in front of the pack…and it was a good move.

    As I said earlier…the smart money left the room first.

  80. 830
    Erik says:

    Quantitative data of a peak phase:
    -Rising interest rates
    -Employment leveled off at full employment 4-5%
    -Cap rates level off and start to rise
    -housing supply hits inflection point
    -lower appraisals
    -flippers profits decrease

    Have we seen most of these?

  81. 831
    N says:

    @Ardell – Since you have mentioned it a few times now, can you define what you mean by “smart money” when it comes to real estate? (Investors, foreign buyers, flippers, wall street backed firms)

  82. 832

    RE: N @ 831

    In Residential Real Estate (vs Commercial and Multi-Family above 4 units), the average buyer and seller is primarily buying and selling for only personal reasons.

    Buyers buy because they are having a baby, or having a 2nd baby, or because their oldest child will start school in the next year or two, or simply because they just got married, or because they just sold their home after the children all grew up and moved out.

    Sellers sell because they are taking a job out of State or because of a divorce or because they no longer need that big house.

    I have seen some “smart money” buyers and sellers in my normal “family trade” business, but mostly not. People who sell at peak and rent and then buy a replacement house when it is a better time to buy than to sell. But those are few and far between.

    “Smart Money” movement usually starts with the builders who stop buying every teardown and lot they can get their hands on. Back when Deerhawke first stated he wasn’t buying is a pretty good indicator of when that started. I don’t know the date. Someone can track that back. Builders tend to be the early adopters of “smart money leaving the room”.

    Around the same time, if not before, some of the wealthier high end sellers started selling. These are people who live in a transient world job-wise. They can, and do, work almost anywhere in the World. Their life event like a child starting school or ending school was not here yet…but within 3 years. Rather than wait to see where home prices were in 3 years, they started selling off and moving to rentals vs risking the short term gamble because at best…they were thinking MAYBE they wouldn’t lose value but gaining value was not likely, so why wait and chance it?

    If you are a young family with 3 kids and a couple of pets, rarely do you fit the “smart money” description because you can’t be an early adopter of change…and rightly so. Tracking data is necessary, tracking politics is necessary…but you also have to pay close attention to what the smart money is doing, especially in markets heavily influenced by the transience of tech jobs.

  83. 833
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 831
    I know you aren’t asking me, but I couldn’t resist.

    Smart money changes to the appropriate strategies and tactics based on market conditions.

  84. 834
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 829 – Why is MID such a big deal? Most homeowners don’t even claim it today. If you buy a median priced home, MID is not a factor. Lower mortgage interest rate, on the other hand, has a disproportionately huge impact that it slows or even reverses market decline. To suggest that the current price decline is a result of the loss of MID is not logical. Savings from lower mortgage payment is far greater than savings from MID. There are many reasons why market is on the decline. MID is not one of them.

  85. 835
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 821 – you should check Bellevue’s pending house sales. there are a lot 1-2M range houses pending. I feel the buyers are very strong financially. I wonder who they are. Rich Chinese, Californian and high tech managers? Seems they care about the house condition more than price. I think middle wage earners are more back off from the market.

  86. 836
    richard says:

    BTW, i’d like sideline buyers jump in the market right now. stop arguing the trivial up and downs in the market data, meaningless.

    I am selfish and I want to be the lone buyer in two years.

    The reason I hold off buying is that I believe there will be a recession in two years. I maybe wrong because who knows what the almighty FED can do to the economy and the dollar. It may well be in a few years all my saving become worthless paper.

    As data clearly shows, as long as there is stable employment in this area, the house price will not drop significantly.

    So please, please, sideline buyers, condo speculators and RE developers, buy a house now , buy a land now and don’t wait for low price entry point. FED , media and government, all the cards are stacked up high for you.

    I want to be the only buyer in the market in two years if there still house for sale. I don’t want crowded buyer entry into market in two years.

    Well, if there is no recession in two years, you can held your head high and be proud and happy counting your paper wealth accumulated.

  87. 837
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 835 – I am not going to speculate who they are except that they are likely homebuyers, not investors. These buyers probably make over $200k/yr.

  88. 838
    Ardell says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 834

    First, we were talking about weakness in the high end. You are changing the subject.

    Second, they are. Maybe you aren’t. Maybe you think they shouldn’t. But that doesn’t change the fact that they are.

    I deal with real people every day. I’m not speculating. I’m not talking median price. We were talking about weakness in the high end.

  89. 839
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell @ 838 – The weakness in the high end is due to price. MID has little to do with it. Savings in the mortgage interests in 2019 far outweigh any savings from MID. Put it another way, if mortgage rates have not fallen and MID is still available, high end will still be weak. Prices simply have to drop further before people will start buying in the high end.

  90. 840
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 839

    MID definitely does matter in the high end, what’s throwing you off is you’re just comparing rates between 2018 vs 2019 and making your argument based solely on that. Best way is to talk to a few people that are looking to buy in the high end to see their take.

  91. 841
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 840 – I’m not saying that MID does not matter in the high end. But the current weakness has little to do with MID but a lot to do with prices. Prices are simply too high with or without MID. Even the drastic rate cuts over the last year have not worked.

  92. 842
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: OA @ 840

    Correct. Rates have been at current level for years . Except for a brief blip up that came and went. Price is flat compared to more robust recent times.

    The problem is a smaller buyer pool due to MID change + Chinese Money issues. Not affordability. Fewer buyers by choice. Not because the Chinese money can’t get here, but because we were added to the Feds list of Cities (and they are few) that require a higher degree of Federal oversight.

    Lower price is the cure but price is not the cause.

  93. 843
    Eastsider says:

    Here is a report for people who refuse to recognize reality. Seattle ranks #8 among US cities where borrowers have to stretch their budgets the most. Many are putting themselves in situations where their monthly mortgage payment is too high for them to manage.

    LendingTree Study Reveals the Most Stretched Homebuyers in America for 2019
    https://www.lendingtree.com/home/most-stretched-homebuyers-in-america-in-2019/

  94. 844
    kenmorem says:

    i’d agree with eastsider that MID doesn’t matter much for <$1m homes with current interest rates.
    $1m purchase. 20% down. 3.5% interest rate.
    P&I = $3592
    I = $2300 / mo for first year
    total I = $27600 / yr
    married filing jointly standard deduction = $24400
    net = $3200
    say 35% tax bracket
    total taxes not saved: 3200 x .35 = $1120

    for a couple with $200k income, this is probably their discretionary spending on pedicures. BFD

  95. 845
    N says:

    @Kenmorem – I think you would also add property taxes to that, so add another 5-10k. And the deductible interest is capped on the first 750k of the mortgage. With a 24,000 standard it’s not as beneficial obviously as it was a few years ago when the standard ded was ~$12k.

    Assuming the full 750 mortgage at 3.5% interest = 26,250 deductible interest + 8000 taxes = 34.250 – 24,400 = 10,250 benefit over standard ded x 35% = $3,587 savings or $300 monthly. BUT no additional tax benefit to buying a more expensive house since the deduction is capped at $750k mortgage debt.

  96. 846
    Dustin says:

    By Eastsider @ 843:

    Many are putting themselves in situations where their monthly mortgage payment is too high for them to manage.

    So what effect are you saying this situation is having on the real estate market? Are you saying the weak market in the high end is being caused in part by an increasing surge of inventory from sellers who are being foreclosed upon or struggling to manage their mortgage payments? I would think that people straining to keep up with their mortgage payments would have greater impact on other, non-real estate markets – for example, a person who has bought a house at the limit of their budget would have less disposable income to support industries dependent on the discretionary spending of consumers (ie. travel, shopping, remodels). How does a person’s lack of disposable income affect what the next prospective buyer will choose to do, unless they choose to put their house back on the market?

  97. 847
    David says:

    By Deerhawke @ 793:

    RE: OA @ 780

    We tend to think of politics and economics as occurring in different silos. But that is not really the way it works. All of this chaos in our national politics affects buying decisions. A lot of people right now are tempted to jump in, really tempted. Prices are more negotiable, interest rates are down, commutes are getting worse by the day, etc. But still they hesitate.

    Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

    You are correct! The “Obama Depression” is proof that perceived and actual incompetence creates a reality.

    Trump, on the other hand, has a track record of fiscal success.

  98. 848
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 847
    You are trying to start political arguments on a real estate website. You and deerhawke are great commenters. Please argue about real estate as politics is a huge waste of our time.

  99. 849
    David says:

    By David @ 847:

    By Deerhawke @ 793:

    RE: OA @ 780

    We tend to think of politics and economics as occurring in different silos. But that is not really the way it works. All of this chaos in our national politics affects buying decisions. A lot of people right now are tempted to jump in, really tempted. Prices are more negotiable, interest rates are down, commutes are getting worse by the day, etc. But still they hesitate.

    Uncertainty creates hesitancy.

    You are correct! The “Obama Depression” is proof that perceived and actual incompetence creates a reality.

    Trump, on the other hand, has a track record of fiscal success.

    Impossible not to question someone who thinks Obama was anything but a sad joke and bought into BS like this:

    “this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal…”

    “When somebody says like the person you just mentioned [Trump} who I’m not going to advertise for, that he’s going to bring all these jobs back. Well how exactly are you going to do that? What are you going to do? There’s no answer to it.” – Obama

    “In Trump’s first 26 months, manufacturers added 479,000 jobs, or 3.9%, 399% more jobs than Obama’s record.”

    Don’t be a joke Deerhawke.

  100. 850
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 849
    Stop!

  101. 851
    Eastsider says:

    RE: N @ 845 – A married couple needs to earn $408k to reach 35% tax bracket… They are more likely in the 22%/24% bracket if they are taking out a $750k mortgage. So “savings” should be around $2400/yr which is $200/month.

    Last year mortgage rates drop more than .5%. A .5% drop in interest rate saves about $220/month on a $750k mortgage.

    Your total monthly cost is lower even without MID.

  102. 852
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Dustin @ 846 – People who buy homes beyond the limit of their budgets are imprudent in their finances. They will likely lose their homes in the next economic downturn. The cost of home ownership in Seattle has risen far greater than inflation. My property tax went up over 25% in 4 years. If your budget is already maxed out, I don’t see how you can keep your home.

  103. 853
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 852
    Spend less on entertainment and food. It’s called house poor.

  104. 854
    Dustin says:

    By Eastsider @ 852:

    RE: Dustin @ 846 – People who buy homes beyond the limit of their budgets are imprudent in their finances. They will likely lose their homes in the next economic downturn.

    This isn’t happening in the market now, then – it’s something you think will happen in the future, if people who purchased recently start losing their homes due to foreclosure, distressed sales, etc., in large numbers. You could be right – a lot of people are imprudent with money, as our past and present debt crises show. As to rising property taxes, I think they concern current homeowners more than prospective buyers. Prospective buyers will most likely factor in current property tax levels when calculating what they can afford, before they even start a search.

    I’m not saying I think home prices will go up – I’m relatively pessimistic on that front. Interest rates seem more likely to rise long term than fall, and property tax rates will likely continue to increase. These factors will bring down what buyers can afford, while inventory rises (perhaps surpassing demand), the pool of prospective buyers for various reasons starts to decrease, and more people look to sell for personal reasons or to cash in on their equity.

  105. 855
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 852:

    RE: Dustin @ 846 – People who buy homes beyond the limit of their budgets are imprudent in their finances. They will likely lose their homes in the next economic downturn. The cost of home ownership in Seattle has risen far greater than inflation. My property tax went up over 25% in 4 years. If your budget is already maxed out, I don’t see how you can keep your home.

    Vote for Tim Eyman’s car tab law. The left and Seattle will ALWAYS have some perfectly reasonable explanation as to why you need more taxes for this or that. AND that you are foolish for opposing it.

  106. 856

    RE: kenmorem @ 844

    A million isn’t “high end” where I work. So maybe we need to define “high end”. High end is not simply “over median price”.

    One of the things I am seeing if I look at all 882 houses on market that are not new construction priced at $1.5 Million or more is no more ATM privileges. This the full range of MLS properties and not just King County. Outside of the immediate vicinity there are more people who were borrowing against their increased equity to live high on the hog. So the debt is not based on what they paid for the house, but what it was worth long after and a price they couldn’t afford to buy at ever.

    The cash out refinances were part of their “income” and with prices no longer escalating, it’s a big loss causing them to start getting behind on their payments. Then they list at too high a price because they don’t count the money they already took out and spent as “gain”. So they want another big gain at time of sale. They already spent their appreciation.

    This leads to foreclosures. They can sell at break even to pay for the equity they already pulled out and spent, but they see no value in selling to pay off money they already spent.

    It’s part of the cycle. It’s not that they bought for more than they could afford back at time of purchase. It’s the current payment after a few cash out refinances that they can’t afford.

  107. 857
    Eastsider says:

    By Dustin @ 854:

    As to rising property taxes, I think they concern current homeowners more than prospective buyers. Prospective buyers will most likely factor in current property tax levels when calculating what they can afford, before they even start a search.

    Think about what you just wrote. The ‘prospective’ buyers three years ago likely ‘factored’ in then property tax levels when calculating what they could afford. Did they expect property tax to rise 25%? If they maxed out their budget then, they are hurting today.

  108. 858
    Dustin says:

    By Eastsider @ 857:

    Did they expect property tax to rise 25%? If they maxed out their budget then, they are hurting today.

    I agree, but I’m not sure what effect you are saying this is having on the current real estate market. Unless people are selling because they’re hurting, doesn’t this have a greater impact on spending outside of real estate? As real estate taxes increase substantially, people marginally holding on to their homes may need to sell, but only if the tax increases have outpaced increases of their income for several years, and in that case there would likely be some element of choice regarding whether to rent or sell, what month/year to sell, etc. So I’m skeptical that the property tax increases we’ve seen over the last few years suggest a significant price correction is imminent. I do think they factor in as headwinds limiting future price increases, though.

  109. 859
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Dustin @ 858 – I never wrote that property tax was having an impact on the current market. But it is a factor in housing affordability.

  110. 860
    Dustin says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 859 – Fair enough. My original question was what effects you thought people with unmanageable mortgage payments would be having on the current market.

  111. 861
    ronp says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 856 – I was sceptical of your “annecdata” but looking at the spreadsheet at http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page there definitely is a correlation between home appreciation and the percent of refinancers who take a larger loan out. The ATM is real!!! (even though I personally do not know of any friends or family who have done so.)

  112. 862

    test

    My blogs were “website” blocked for two days now…

  113. 863

    RE: softwarengineer @ 862
    Thanx Tim if You Fixed It ;-)

    I tried everything I could from my end to fix the website access anomaly.

  114. 864

    Hey, It was a Great Halloween, Now Grab a Handful of Excess Halloween Candy and Fill Your Mug With Yuban and Read

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, November 1, 2019
    Crowd at Sea-Tac Airport
    Should the Puget Sound area get a new airport?
    Anyone who’s been to Sea-Tac Airport at a busy travel time has felt the crunch. Now officials are looking at whether to build a new airport near Tacoma or Olympia, or add a runway to an existing one — maybe in Bremerton or Snohomish County. We’d like to know what questions you have about this. Meanwhile, here are some ways to de-stress next time you’re at a jam-packed airport. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Five teenagers were apprehended last night after stealing a PT Cruiser, driving it through Burien and White Center, and shooting a pellet gun at trick-or-treaters and their parents, police say. At least one child and one adult were reportedly hit by a pellet.

    Cooke Aquaculture, which was at the center of a massive escape of farmed Atlantic salmon last year, now wants to farm native steelhead in Puget Sound. Cooke’s critics have big concerns, and a problem last month with a net pen off Bainbridge Island is serving as pink meat in their fight.

    If you haven’t filled out your ballot yet, may we suggest setting aside time this weekend to do your part for democracy? Here’s help:

    The statewide affirmative-action measure is convoluted. A quick primer covers what a “yes” or “no” vote would actually do.
    Our voter guide has what you need to know about major issues and races.
    The Seattle Times editorial board offers its endorsements.

    Seniors are usually told to get a higher-dose flu vaccine, but it won’t be available until later than usual this year. “The most important thing is to get vaccinated,” even if that means getting the standard shot, Kaiser Permanente Washington’s preventive-care director says.

    Remember to turn your clocks back for daylight saving time before you go to bed tomorrow. Yes, we still have to do this, even though Washington state has a new law. Here’s why. The time change can hurt your health, so it pays to be deliberate about this. Seattleites share how they cope as our days get darker.
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    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    $3 DRINK, MILLION-DOLLAR VIEW
    Sketch from Starbucks in skyscraper
    Seattle Sketcher has a favorite city hideout far above the fray, at a Starbucks tucked into the city’s tallest skyscraper. A nearby tower acts as a giant mirror, full of mesmerizing reflections. How did Sketcher pull off the interactive spherical panorama you’ll see here? The secret involves lots of coffee. Meanwhile, across the country, one new Starbucks is so tiny that it doesn’t even have a menu board. (Illustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    UW’s College Republicans have been deemed “inappropriate” and are no longer recognized as an official chapter of the national group. The national committee chairman blasted “hurtful” conduct by the local group.

    Measles makes your body forget how to fight other diseases, according to new research that indicates the virus is much more dangerous than scientists once thought. The public health implications are enormous, researchers say.

    Want to see the Sounders play for the MLS Cup at home? Ticket sales start this morning for the general public, and fans will get extra seating at the Nov. 10 game as CenturyLink Field opens at its maximum capacity. Coach Brian Schmetzer is vaulting into rare air among all-time Seattle coaches, columnist Matt Calkins writes.

    What could you do this weekend? Take your Halloween candy to the latest “Terminator” flick or one of the other movies opening today. Gawk at Seattle Art Museum’s powerful “Flesh and Blood” exhibit. Or curl up with one of these great crime novels. Here’s a cornucopia of ideas for this first weekend in November, plus a look at the month’s hottest events in the Seattle area.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? Indie music, singing sisters, museum exhibits and more
    9 movies open Nov. 1 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    SAM’s ‘Flesh and Blood’ exhibit depicts desire, violence and more using the artistic vessel of the human body

    Provided by Kaanapali Beach Resort Association
    Deepen your relationship with the ocean in a traditional Hawaiian ceremony called a hiu wai, a saltwater cleansing of body, mind and soul. One practitioner says,”People are shocked at how different they are once they leave the water.”
    WORTH A READ
    “This is a solemn and grave moment.” Washington state lawmakers were divided as the U.S. House yesterday thrust the impeachment inquiry into a new phase that will be much more public and rancorous. With the likelihood growing that President Donald Trump will face a Senate trial, here’s what it would look like.

    A car hit and critically injured a pedestrian early this morning in Covington, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office. The driver was arrested.

    Washington taxpayers won’t have to foot the bill for the collapse of the Skagit River bridge over I-5. The state Supreme Court says trucking companies are on the hook for the May 2013 collapse, in which a truck driver smacked into overhead braces on the bridge and two cars nose-dived into the river below. The first Seattle Times staffer on the scene described the jaw-dropping sight that day.

    Heroic dogs are all over the news this week. Of course there’s the pooch whose face replaced a Medal of Honor winner’s in a Trump tweet, but there’s also Mr. Wrinkles, who helped police identify a man injured in a car crash. More:

    Speaking of dogs and cars, pity this poor pooch who had quite a ruff ride.
    A suspect performed a “startling display of acrobatics” — twice! — as he fled the scene of a Maryland burglary.
    Note to fraudsters: If you plan to open a bank account with a fake bill, you’d better do a bit of homework first, unlike this guy.
    Send in your best snake stories, the Los Angeles Times begged readers. And they sure did. We’re awake now!

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    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Tim Eyman’s destructive I-976 would spread the tortured stop-and-go traffic of Aurora Bridge this week to roads throughout the state as maintenance and construction budgets are pared away. Voters must reject this bad idea, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Mostly sunny. High 55. Low 39. Sunrise 7:53. Sunset 5:51.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1869, William Ladd pays $1.25 per acre for the future business district in West Seattle. The next year, a surveyor describes working along a line that eventually became Southwest Alaska Street. His crew crosses a 300-foot-wide prairie that changes to an alder thicket at 48th Avenue Southwest. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take

    A Good Percentage of Restaurants and Food Stores [like some 30%] slip the “phony” farmed salmon in as wild salmon from Alaska, I assume its not audited correctly by the FDA for decades now? If its chopped up with spicy noodle sauces and salads, you’d probably not notice it?

    Hey, how does the avg Joe pay $300 for car tabs [on top of monthly car bills, insurance and maintenance] on $15-20/hr per capita pay and still afford Seattle rent increases from property tax increases? The tooth fairy? Its just like Medicare for all, it sounds great until you find out your taxes swell like sore feet.

  115. 865
    Deerhawke says:

    For those who are economic optimists, the jobs report that just came out is bound to be encouragement. Despite trade tensions, slowing global growth, a lackluster manufacturing sector and decreasing business investment, companies are still hiring.

    What is really surprising is that they went back and upgraded jobs numbers for past months and that the report would have been stronger if not for the strike at GM.

    I am one of those people who would like to be a true optimist. Being an entrepreneur pretty much requires it. But I have weathered too many recessions to become a true believer and underneath it all am very cautious and conservative. These kind of results continue to surprise me.

    Sure the tax cut provided a sugar high for a while. Sure the Fed has been helping with an easy money policy, relatively painless to do without rapid increases in traditional measures of inflation.

    But still… 109 straight months of job growth and a 3.5-3.6% unemployment rate?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/business/economy/jobs-report.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  116. 866
    Deerhawke says:

    The Windermere Gardner Report is out for Q3 2019 (July-September)
    Seattle Metro Area Highlights

    Average DOM 32
    Months of Inventory 1.9
    List to Sale Ratio 97%
    New Listings Down 12%
    Pendings Up 15%
    Average Sale Price Down 1% to $870,000
    Median Sale Price Down 1% to 750,000

  117. 867

    Another Rattler Snake Thrown in the Chicken Coop, Deerhawke

    New York is costing President Trump 16% in “extra” Sanctuary State taxes, so he’s making his residency in Florida today instead. I imagine anyone owning a theoretical vacation home in another state can save a truckload of money this way…another logical reason to flip real estate in a cheaper tax state. Kansas has about a 5% state income tax, but compared to Seattle area county property tax rates, this still is about $ 2500/yr, about 40% of our avg property tax alone. I could theoretically switch residency to Kansas and save a truckload of money, income tax or not…

    New York has an inheritance tax too, Florida doesn’t.

  118. 868
    Erik says:

    RE: Dustin @ 860
    Most can pull out a heloc if they need to because most people in Seattle probably have lots of equity. If someone bought a house in Seattle in 2012 for $400k, it’s probably worth a million or more.

  119. 869
    N says:

    Looks like these sellers will be taking a loss on their property bought in 2017

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3528-SW-105th-St-98146/home/155542

  120. 870

    RE: N @ 869 – I

    I’m surprised something bid up over 20% over asking in that neighborhood back then. That was a leap.

  121. 871
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 869
    They need to sell at the worst time of the year, so they are willing to reduce their price to do so. I wouldn’t get too excited.

  122. 872
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 852:

    RE: Dustin @ 846 – People who buy homes beyond the limit of their budgets are imprudent in their finances. They will likely lose their homes in the next economic downturn. The cost of home ownership in Seattle has risen far greater than inflation. My property tax went up over 25% in 4 years. If your budget is already maxed out, I don’t see how you can keep your home.

    But what are your property taxes relative to your income? If they were 4%, then that 25% increase is 1% of your income. Has your income not risen by 1% during the last 4 years?

    Has your Seattle house not increased in value over the last 4 years by significantly more than the combined property taxes you paid in the last 4 years?

  123. 873

    Its Saturday Before Ya Gain an Hour Sleep Time Change Tonight; Smile, Gulp Your Yuban and Read:

    The Seattle Times
    TOP OF THE TIMES
    Saturday, November 2, 2019
    Seattle traffic
    If voters pass Initiative 976 to cut car-tab fees … then what?
    Lawmakers will have a giant quandary if the $30 car-tab measure passes: how to chop hundreds of millions of dollars from the budget. Opponents of I-976 say the cuts could set off a “Hunger Games-style” competition between state agencies. But backers say: So what? Here’s what’s at stake. Read more about the issues and candidates on your ballot, and spend some quality time with our voter guide and The Seattle Times editorial board’s endorsements.
    In five-hour grilling over 737 MAX crashes, House panel reveals Boeing memos, calls on CEO Muilenburg to resign

    New internal documents were revealed Wednesday, raising questions about the flight control system that contributed to the two fatal 737 MAX crashes, and lawmakers lacerated CEO Dennis Muilenburg for what one described as ‘a culture of greed.’ Read more.

    Nacua vs. Nacua: On Saturday against Utah, UW receiver Puka Nacua looks to even the score

    The last time Samson and Puka Nacua played against each other in a competitive football game, Samson got the best of his little brother. “He never lets me forget it,” said Puka, a freshman wide receiver at UW. The rematch will take place inside Husky Stadium. Read more.

    It’s not too late to check out Seattle’s fall colors. Here’s why the leaves are especially stunning this year

    Usually, by this time of year, we’ve had a big rainy windstorm that’s knocked all the foliage off our deciduous trees and turned it into brown mush on the ground. But we have a dry forecast for this week, and the recent combination of abundant sunlight and cool, frostless nighttime temperatures has made for a particularly spectacular display this year. Read more.

    In his 2019 list of the 25 best Northwest wines $20 or less, Andy Perdue toasts bargain bottles that taste rich

    It’s a perfect pairing when a wine’s quality exceeds its price tag. Read more.

    HEADLINES FROM THIS WEEK
    Home prices are on the upswing in the Puget Sound area. The latest numbers for King, Pierce and Snohomish counties combined are getting a big lift from one sizzling city in particular. Read more.

    “This is a solemn and grave moment.” Washington state lawmakers were divided as the U.S. House this week voted to thrust the impeachment inquiry into a new phase that will be much more public and rancorous. Read more.

    The MLS Cup is coming to Seattle. Rave Green fans plan to pack CenturyLink Field on Nov. 10 as the Sounders play for the cup on their home turf for the first time in franchise history. Look out, Toronto! Read more.

    Do you need health insurance? Open enrollment has begun for the Washington Health Benefit Exchange. Here’s what you need to know. Read more.
    Bringing you the news you care about. That’s our specialty. Supporting the local free press? Maybe that’s your specialty.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Amazon is making grocery delivery free for Prime members. The company is ditching its $15 fee as it amps up its battle with rivals to deliver your groceries. It does have a minimum order; here’s how that compares with what other grocery chains are offering. Read more.

    Would you take advice from Amanda Knox? The famed Seattleite, who was imprisoned in the death of her roommate in Italy, is launching an advice column called Ask Amanda Knox. She’s been in the news quite a bit since her 2015 acquittal, most recently asking for the public’s help funding her space-themed wedding. Read more.

    Warning: This story will make you hungry. Amid all of Seattle’s high-minded, high-priced dining options, there are so many delicious reasons locals are steadfast in their love for a signature staple: teriyaki. Here are four top places to enjoy it. Read more.

    Which book should Moira’s Seattle Times Book Club tackle next? A local bookseller offered recommendations, including a novel that made him cry more than once. Now you get to vote on the finalists. Read more.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? Indie music, singing sisters, museum exhibits and more
    9 movies open Nov. 1 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in
    Review: Violinist Augustin Hadelich’s Halloween night concert with Seattle Symphony was all treats, no tricks

    Provided by Amazon
    South Lake Union has seen an influx of 50,000 people, most from outside Seattle, who have transformed a sleepy industrial neighborhood into a thriving international community. But what’s behind this catalyst for growth? Read more.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Is your home ready for Seattle’s winter storms? No one wants to be up on a ladder in a January storm trying to secure loose shingles or a sagging gutter. Here’s what to do, check and evaluate right now before it gets colder and wetter. Read more.

    SWE’s Take

    If the highlight of Seattle night-time venue is a violin concert and nine of those new “cheap” international Hollywood movies with unknown actors that lack skill and experience, or worse yet, fork out like $100-200 for a couple over-priced dinner Seattle restaurants’ dinners, just stay home and drink rotgut playing “Guns Kill All” on your new Pay Station…

    The Seattle Times alleges a Bull Real Estate market now, just like they alleged the coming Trump Economic2019 Recession…all Fake News now with the DOW well over 27000 and heading for 28000 with 130K new jobs, these buffoons never lie? Hades, I haven’t a clue where Seattle RE prices will go, predictions are all just “personal” guesses this Winter IMO.

    Looks Like Numbers of Enrolled Public School Students Declining in Seattle:

    https://www.seattleschools.org/departments/enrollment_planning/growth_boundaries/green_lake_elementary_capacity_and_boundaries/frequently_asked_questions

    So have my numbers of trick or treaters in 2019, only 5-10 kids showed up for Halloween, down from last year by 50% and the peak of 100 10 years ago…the kids are leaving Seattle.

  124. 874
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 852

    If your property taxes went up 25% in 4 years, like mine, then probably

    1) your property was under-appraised to begin with
    2) your property appreciated substantially during those 4 years
    3) you are now making a reasonable but long-delayed contribution to the state’s under-funded educational system.

    It sure hurts to write those property tax checks (I know— I just did it Wednesday) but it is important to remember that we don’t have an income tax. Overall we are not a highly tax burdened state.

  125. 875

    Medicare for All Would Kill Seattle AMZ Jobs?

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/875830/jeff-bezos-pay-nearly-7-billion-elizabeth-warrens-medicareforall-tax

    Not so Deerhawke, state income taxes can be far less than Seattle area property tax, depends on the state.

  126. 876
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 872 – The increase in 4 years between 2014-2018 is actually 43%. Hmm… now that is close to 2% of your income. Should we include the increase in Obamacare premiums and car tab fees too? My guess is they reduced your take home pay by 5% during that 4 years. Your pay raise in that period basically kept up with inflation (have you checked your dinner checks, child care bills, college tuitions lately?). So the pay raise itself does not pay for the increases beyond inflation in property tax, Obamacare premium, car tab fees and others!

    If you have not budgeted for the unexpected additional costs in that 4 years, you are scr**d. The increase in home values does not pay the bills. Your only prudent option is to sell the house you can no longer afford and move to somewhere cheaper. And if there is no home value appreciation, likely scenario in the next 4 years, you will be financially ruined if (local) costs increase faster than inflation!

    You are not a dumb person but you have been intellectually dishonest in your comments here.

    Taxes up 43 percent in four years
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/property-tax-qa-why-your-king-county-bill-is-going-up-so-much-and-where-is-the-money-going/

  127. 877
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 874:

    It sure hurts to write those property tax checks (I know— I just did it Wednesday) but it is important to remember that we don’t have an income tax. Overall we are not a highly tax burdened state.

    This is the standard liberal/progressive talking point without basis in fact. According to Pew Trusts, inflation adjusted tax revenue collected by WA in Q2 2018 has increased by 23% from its peak collection pre-2008.

    https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2019/01/22/state-tax-revenue-makes-biggest-gains-in-seven-years

    According to Tax Foundation, WA ranks #17 in per capita in Fiscal Year 2016. It has certainly increased its ranking since then. There goes your “Overall we are not a highly tax burdened state.”

    https://taxfoundation.org/state-local-tax-collections-per-capita-2019/

    WA also ranks in the top half in spending per student.

  128. 878
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 874:

    1) your property was under-appraised to begin with
    2) your property appreciated substantially during those 4 years

    There are a number of issues in determining property ‘values’ that can change drastically yoy, unlike changes in inflation or wages. Real estate is an illiquid asset/market. The perceived/assessed value is based on ‘marginal’ sales. If enough people decide to sell at the same time, prices will collapse because ‘marginal’ values will drop. OTOH, when sufficient number of people decide to buy at once, prices will rise quickly.

    IMHO property values are inflated in this area. Why? The simple answer is many people cannot afford and will not qualify to buy the house they currently occupy today. The shortage in housing is pushing up marginal values. The marginal buyer in Seattle today is in the top quartile income/wealth group rather than 40 percentile historically (based on 60% homeownership.) When the next recession hits, marginal values will drop and so will your home prices.

  129. 879
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 876 – Wait, what? Your tax bill went up 25%, but now it’s 43% because of some newspaper article?

    I don’t pay Obamacare. Car tabs??? Let’s get real. My take home pay has only gone up these last 4 years, and I would presume the same is true for most.

    My property taxes are less than 4%. I used the 4%/1% because it’s easy to explain the relationship. And this is over 4 years. I wanted to make the point that 1/4 of 1% is an incredulously crappy annual raise. I don’t think you did that poorly. Twice that raise is the same thing. So is four times that. And who in God’s name runs such a tight budget that they can’t maneuver food, entertainment, vacations, etc. to create a little room? Plus, you should be able to take out a line to easily cover the next 4 years taxes if you are really planning to continue with your <1% raises. On the other hand, sell if you wish. And take your winnings without whining.

    Where is your visceral understanding of what actually affects a person as a homeowner?

  130. 880

    RE: Erik @ 833
    Yes Erik

    I know its assumed that income taxes are far worse than property taxes, but its not that simple. You need the State’s tax tables [graduated for income levels, Kansas starts at 2.2% income tax]. Property tax is the same no matter what your gross household income is, the only way to get a property tax reduction is make $40K/yr on disability or retirement….LOL…that’s avg Joe per capita pay, before you get the reduction, yet its plenty for the rent and impossible car costs in Seattle? The $250K/yr top 2% household incomes rich elite pay the same property tax bill on the same listed cost house as the avg Joe pay? Avg Joe would do much better on many state’s income taxes instead, that are tax table regressive.

    Even our Wash St 10% sales tax was eliminated on food for this very reason. Every case is different. The mother of the approx 30 YO Millenial, just drove her young adult to her$14/hr COSTCO job, because the near 30 YO can’t afford to drive yet. I wonder if she’s helping keep the family of 4 afloat instead? Gosh what a mess, if I were her, I’d get the Hades out of that hopeless mess ASAP. Its no future for any young adult, a recipe for disaster and a ruined future. My daughter thought this same young adult as a kid had serious social skill problems when she knew her, I possibly blame home schooling for lack of socialization development. Therapy is needed in her case IMO. Seattle is depressing if you’re younger.

  131. 881
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 879 – I wrote over 25% because I could only find property tax bills from 2017-2019 on King County website. 43% is the actual increase in four years according to “some newspaper” – Seattle Times. Are you suggesting that Seattle Times is lying?

    If you income increases 8% and inflation increases the same, you have no extra money. If 4% of your budget goes to property tax four years ago, it is now consuming up to 6% of your budget. You have to cut 2% from your budget elsewhere, eat 2 meals a day instead of 3? Shutoff your heater in the winter?

    Borrowing money from your home equity to pay property tax bill will lead you to insolvency down the road. Some financial advice from you! Totally dishonest.

  132. 882
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 881 – What the Seattle Times is saying, (or was saying a year and a half ago when this was published), is that if your house increased $183,000 from $326,000 to $509,000, your taxes would have increased $1,764 from $4,140 to $5,904. I would take that deal all day long, and twice on Sunday. Rents have certainly gone up that much, and you don’t get the $183,000.

    As for the rest; for that to be right you have to assume that my income goes up the same as inflation, and that I have to spend all my income on cost-of-living stuff. And didn’t I just tell you that my property taxes are less than 4% – now – after all this financial horror? Wrong, wrong, and wrong again.

    I’ll agree that if you can’t manage a $1,764 per year contingency after 4 years, you shouldn’t buy a house, and you probably wouldn’t be able to. But if $25,000 debt on $183,000 of equity is the road to insolvency, who would have ever bought a house?

  133. 883
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By Deerhawke @ 865:

    For those who are economic optimists, the jobs report that just came out is bound to be encouragement. Despite trade tensions, slowing global growth, a lackluster manufacturing sector and decreasing business investment, companies are still hiring.
    But still… 109 straight months of job growth and a 3.5-3.6% unemployment rate?

    Deerhawke is on record, in previous comments on this blog, expressing a desire to see people lose their jobs so Deerhawke’s preferred politicians can win instead of the incumbents. Always worth keeping in mind while reading this person’s commentary.

  134. 884
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By Eastsider @ 878:

    IMHO property values are inflated in this area. Why? The simple answer is many people cannot afford and will not qualify to buy the house they currently occupy today. The shortage in housing is pushing up marginal values. The marginal buyer in Seattle today is in the top quartile income/wealth group rather than 40 percentile historically (based on 60% homeownership.) When the next recession hits, marginal values will drop and so will your home prices.

    As usual you are correct. Amazing more people don’t understand this concept.

  135. 885
    David says:

    By LessonIsNeverTry @ 883:

    By Deerhawke @ 865:

    For those who are economic optimists, the jobs report that just came out is bound to be encouragement. Despite trade tensions, slowing global growth, a lackluster manufacturing sector and decreasing business investment, companies are still hiring.
    But still… 109 straight months of job growth and a 3.5-3.6% unemployment rate?

    Deerhawke is on record, in previous comments on this blog, expressing a desire to see people lose their jobs so Deerhawke’s preferred politicians can win instead of the incumbents. Always worth keeping in mind while reading this person’s commentary.

    Deerhawke is a bit of a cuck, unfortunately.

    Being a part-time FL ( & WA) resident not too far from Trump’s Mar-a-lago, taxes are not really an issue for me anymore. WA State has a lot of stubborn problems that will never allow it to be prime location to live. It really is a fluke Seattle ever became a tech hub.

    WA State COULD be a huge draw for living and even retiring BUUUT the mindset of the citizenry there has created some substantial impediments to wit:

    1) WA has a potentially beautifully and long coastline. BUT the average Joe cannot access most of it because THE PEOPLE are cutoff from the water. WA removes coastal enjoyment by giving landowners rights all the way to the lowest mean tide.

    FL basically follows the ancient Roman idea of no man can own the air or remove the right to drinking water, etc. FL grants beach access to the highest mean tide-line in public trust FOR THE PEOPLE.

    2) FL State has sunshine laws that make records immediately PUBLIC. WA State goes out of its way to hide, obfuscate and intimidate the public from knowing the truth about goings-on.

    3) FL has FAR better public services with MUCH lower taxes as a result.

    4) Floridians tend to be more polite.

    5) ANTIFA in Florida doesn’t really exist and if it did? Under FL law they would be shot and killed and the shooter, if not indicted, would be immune from civil lawsuits.

    6) FL residents would not indict you for shooting ANTIFA. LOL

    7) In WA, you have people like Deerhawke who would cuckold you.

  136. 886
    Erik says:

    RE: LessonIsNeverTry @ 884
    That’s an interesting perspective. Eastsider has historically been one of the most incorrect commenters on this site, so I stopped reading their BS because they don’t understand real estate/money. Perhaps that’s dated knowledge and they learned? I’ll read his/her comments again, but Eastsider got a bad reputation for a good reason, because he/she was incorrect all the time.

  137. 887
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 886 – I’ve got a bad reputation? Hmm… this coming from someone who lost a fortune and publicly admitted to cheating the banks (and taxpayers) in the last housing crash. Good grief!

  138. 888
    uwp says:

    By David @ 885:

    WA State has a lot of stubborn problems that will never allow it to be prime location to live. It really is a fluke Seattle ever became a tech hub.

    Imagine preferring Florida to Washington.

    Ok Boomer.

  139. 889

    RE: Eastsider @ 876
    Yes Eastsider

    When my 2 young adults lived with me and I bought more clothes and lunches for work too, my credit card food bills were about $1800-2000/mo, this bill dropped about $1200/mo as I retired…..this decrease happened over like 5 years…it surprised me it was that big. I used Restaurant.com for half price meals frequently too….now I eat lots of fruit and veggies, many rich in probiotics, I’m forced to cook all my meals eating right for weight loss. I don’t know about you but approx $15K per year in net pay seems like a truckload of money.

  140. 890

    RE: Erik @ 886 -Nice Halloween Picture Erik

    I’m in my work clothes in my new picture, pajama pants. I have many pair now, its my new ward-robe.

  141. 891

    The Glorious MOM Economic Report for October is Clear:

    Oct 0.14% 0.28% 2.16% 1.93% 3.60%
    YTD 1.93% 8.82% 23.14% 19.83% 17.28%
    Last 12 mo 2.46% 11.50% 14.31% 9.07% 11.48%

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    Interest rates went down 0.25%….bonds doing well as a result. Stocks are SKY-ROCKETING like a Dodge Charger punched, making paltry RE gains look like chump change now. We’re headed for a depression and all is gloom and doom…LOL….come on, get some backbone and start saving in the stock market or be left behind? No more excuses, start saving to succeed, and grab up them cheap priced flippers if you find them…with all the $CASH$ you saved, LOL…ask Erik.

  142. 892
  143. 893
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 892
    Good one Blurtman!

    I almost got a condo in Sammamish, but I ended up with a house in South Seattle. I would likely not be accepted by the samammish debutants anyway.

  144. 894
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 890
    Yeah, I saw that you are in your pajamas. That’s the goal I am working towards. I wanted to be in pajamas by 40, but it’s looking like it may take longer.,

  145. 895
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 887
    You had very low quality comments for a longtime. Maybe you’ve gotten better?

    And I never lost a fortune. I was broke and had to short sell during the recession. My attorney I consulted with just looked at me and said I’m insolvent anyway. Plus it was my primary residence. I in no way cheated anyone. I was cranking the people like you on here that have all theoretical knowledge and don’t really understand the market. You are able to sound like you get it now, so good job tricking people.

    Get out from behind the keyboard and do something real and then tell us about it.

  146. 896
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 891
    People overreact if the market barely ticks down as it’s done now. Good time to buy low and sell high.

  147. 897
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 888
    If I could have the same job/employer in Florida, I’d rather live there. That’s probably true for most people in this area.

  148. 898
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 885 – It’s cool that 3 of the 7 things that make Florida better than Washington involve the ability to shoot people whose politics you don’t like without any impoliteness from the local government and populace; but do you really think that there is no one in Florida that would do your wife? What elevates your attention to that? And why are you picturing Deerhawke in that role? Enquiring minds want to know.

  149. 899

    Fill the Gas tank With $3.60/gal Regular Gas, Stuff Your Pockets With Lots of Unneeded Dollars for the This Week’s Tunnel Tolls; Gulp Your Yuban Down in Anticipation, its time to Read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, November 4, 2019
    Brace for Seattle’s next big traffic challenge
    Tens of thousands of Highway 99 tunnel drivers are expected to switch to city streets when tolls start next weekend — and on some of those alternate routes, new obstacles await. Here’s a look at the times of day that could be rockiest, the status of some alternate options, and what you’ll pay if you stay with the tunnel. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Two children were killed in a fire at a Lynnwood townhouse yesterday. Dozens of firefighters arrived to find flames shooting out of the home amid reports that people were still inside. Two adults and another child escaped.

    Seattle’s rate of car ownership just took the nation’s biggest plunge — by far. FYI Guy looks at why we’ve swerved around this corner faster than every other big city, along with who owns cars and who doesn’t these days.

    State officials are scrambling to tell 1,000 potential voters that they should check their status. A glitch is affecting people who registered to vote while also signing up for health coverage. Here’s how to make sure you’re all squared away.

    Ack! Ballots are due tomorrow. Morning Brief to the rescue:

    What would car-tab Initiative 976 do, and what are the arguments for and against it? Here’s a Q&A.
    A tall latte with extra-foamy politics: Starbucks is trying to activate the voters who spend time in its Seattle stores. Know the context behind the push.
    Read much more in our complete election coverage and 2019 voter guide.
    Find The Seattle Times editorial board’s endorsements here.
    Editorial cartoonist David Horsey offers his take on the political spectrum, Seattle-style.

    This deal has our vote:
    Save over 90% on a digital subscription during our Election Sale. Cancel anytime.
    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    LONG-OVERDUE RESPECT
    A sacred site is nearly hidden amid foliage off a quiet North Seattle street. Líq’tәd (a Lushootseed word pronounced LEE’kteed) is part of líq’tәd (Licton) Springs Park, Seattle’s newest designated city landmark. What took so long? This raises important questions about what we value as a city, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes. Matt Remle, second from left, was part of the Native-led team that worked toward the designation. He’s visiting the site with his family. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    This is usually Seattle’s wettest month, but forecasters are predicting a decent stretch of weather ahead to enjoy our newly adjusted daylight hours. Did you remember to set your clocks back for what might be the last time?

    Seahawks fans, have you recovered from the rollercoaster ride? Unlikely hero Jacob Hollister was shaking with adrenaline after his touchdown catch sealed a 40-34 overtime victory against the Buccaneers yesterday. Enjoy watching his big moment again and marveling at Russell Wilson’s comeback wizardry. But … how alarming is Seattle’s defense? Let’s discuss.

    Staff members at a Buffalo Wild Wings have been fired after asking a group of parents and kids celebrating a birthday to leave their table. The reason: Another diner at the restaurant near Chicago “didn’t want black people sitting near him.” The chain is facing a loud backlash.

    President Donald Trump threatened to cut aid for fire-scorched California, drawing a rather testy response from the governor yesterday. While tens of thousands fled the flames, a handful of researchers drove toward them with technology that allowed them to peer inside like never before.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    What is there to do in Seattle with kids in November? Try these 5 fun events.
    Do you believe you can reduce cancer risk with food?
    Travel Troubleshooter | When American Airlines cancels a flight, are travelers owed more than a voucher?

    Provided by Puget Sound Energy
    Climate change discussions are everywhere. So is talk of climate footprints as a way to help reverse the tide. Learn how much carbon you are making, and how you can reduce your carbon footprint in everyday life.
    WORTH A READ
    Why are birds and seals starving in a Bering Sea full of fish? As warming takes hold, the search for answers is urgent for those who live along the shores and for the Seattle-based fishermen whose fortunes are tied to the harvests, some of the biggest on the planet.

    A Russian bride ended up dead in an Oregon love triangle. Found next to Anna Repkina’s body on a remote logging road: a takeout bag holding a KFC receipt that led to her alleged killer.

    November isn’t an easy month for parents in the Seattle area, as our daylight hours dwindle. From magical musical theater to a global dance party, here are five top family-friendly events (and a bonus) to brighten your month.

    Wellness: Can you cut cancer risk by dishing up the right foods? Nutritionist Carrie Dennett busts some popular myths about how to fill your plate for long-term health. She also has advice on easy ways to boost your intake of antioxidants.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Elizabeth Warren’s story about pregnancy discrimination struck a chord with many women. Learn what to do if you face discrimination due to pregnancy, and review the rights pregnant and postpartum women have at work.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Those advisory votes on your Nov. 5 ballot are misleading and confusing, but it’s worth exploring a reboot before junking them, editorial writer Jennifer Hemmingsen says.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 55. Low 41. Sunrise 6:57. Sunset 4:47.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1979, the Seahawks play the worst game in Kingdome (and National Football League) history, losing to the Los Angeles Rams. Behind 0-21 at the half, the Seahawks’ first play of the second half is a pass from quarterback Jim Zorn to Steve Largent, the future Pro Football Hall of Fame receiver. The play gains 11 yards – the only Seahawks first down in the game. When time runs out, mercifully, the Rams have a 24-0 victory and the Seahawks, then in their fourth season, have minus-seven yards. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    Where’s the News on Trump’s Exploding Stock Market That Was Suppose to be a Recession This Year? Hid under your political bent to say nothing good about our Trump economy “on the Obama mend without Quantitative Easing, welfare to the banksters and elite rich”. Mitigating this recent jobs/stocks “TERRIFIC” news does nothing for our Seattle area RE market, but ‘unnecessarily drags it down, unless you believe bashing Trump is reason to risk wealth accumulation psychology [the stock market sky-rocket] historically and recently positively affecting Seattle area real estate prices. Its called common sense, unless you’re looking for a ‘politically motivated” mealy mouthed excuse to attack our real estate price increase psychology with a bloody butcher ax that way…

    Homelessness= Wild Fires in California, remember Smokey the Bear, “Only You Can Prevent Forrest Fires” and he wasn’t pointed his paw finger at a power line. Reduce homelessness and reduce camp fires in woods starting them. Trump’s right, blaming the power lines is a lame excuse/lie. Kiss your FEMA dollars good-bye if you don’t honestly deal with this critical crisis homelessness now.

    Car ownership and working/retaining a good job go hand in hand, that’s why we “most” all own cars and most don’t bike or ride buses/trains. You’re a hypocrite if you defy normal Seattle family necessities statistics.

  150. 900
    N says:

    @ Ardell 870 – 20% is quite a bid up isn’t it. Last time I saw a breakdown of % increases by neighborhood for the past several years, Arbor heights was far and away the greatest for all of the West Seattle neighborhoods, possibly people migrating south to more affordable parts of West Seattle.

  151. 901

    RE: N @ 900 – Point is if you are trying to pinpoint where prices are today compared to a previous year…you can’t use a 20%+ bidup as your baseline. You need 3 to make a “market value” out of it, just like an appraiser. It can’t be a one off. Basically the same as Eastsider’s MID theory only working if you start only at May of 2018.

    If it was a new house or a flip house back when, you have to first deduct the new house premium to allow for wear and tear, since those things were brand new and never used. It’s not a market decline if it is the depreciated value of something that was new and is now used.

    As example if a house sold last year with a new carpet and that new carpet now has pet stains and smell, the deduction of the original value of that new carpet is not market depreciation. You have to balance that out before you draw market conclusions.

  152. 902
    David says:

    By whatsmyname @ 898:

    RE: David @ 885 – It’s cool that 3 of the 7 things that make Florida better than Washington involve the ability to shoot people whose politics you don’t like without any impoliteness from the local government and populace; but do you really think that there is no one in Florida that would do your wife? What elevates your attention to that? And why are you picturing Deerhawke in that role? Enquiring minds want to know.

    Did you have to roll ‘sfrz’ off you to write that?

  153. 903
    N says:

    @Ardell 902 – great points. I wasn’t trying to make a case that prices are down from 2017, although I can see why one would think that I was. I did find it interesting, and outside of town homes haven’t seen many properties selling for a loss 2 years later.

    In fact, based on what homes have been selling for in the area I would say they are most definitely up in the past two years.

    BTW – thank you for your valuable posts and market insights, very helpful.

  154. 904
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 902 – You answer my questions, and I’ll be happy to answer yours.

  155. 905

    RE: N @ 903

    I think they are flat from 2017 for the most part. But if they are not in the same showing condition as 2017, you have to add or subtract for that. I’m working on one now where the roof was passable 3 years ago, but not today. 3 extra years on an old second shingle roof = whole new ball game. If we put a new roof on, then you won’t see that in price or stats. If we take down the price and the buyer puts on a new roof…then it will show as a price decline.

    But generally…prices are pretty flat from 2017 unless they bid up more than 10% back then.

    Rarely do I go back to a house to sell it that I helped someone buy that I do not need to change to get it back to where it was when they bought it…or better. Some people are harder on houses than others, even over a short period of time. This especially true when they have pets and small children, both.

    One of my hardest ones they only owned two years, but they had a big dog running in and out and new twin babies and the previous owner was a pristine old maid who manicured every blade of grass. It’s not all about the market. Often it’s about the houses themselves being somewhat different products. :

    Most of the time I get it to be as good as or better than it was, but lately with less appreciation and surety that it will sell quickly, I’m running into problems left and right. A weak market is also a difficult one to navigate. It’s not all fun and games anymore. :)

  156. 906
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 905 – From what I have seen, a dog is a sure-fire $5k-$10k damage machine.

  157. 907
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 904:

    RE: David @ 902 – You answer my questions, and I’ll be happy to answer yours.

    Or maybe this is you?: https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=aa7rE_1572791577

  158. 908
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 907 – Spend a lot of time on those sites? I suppose if your alternative is something nobody in Florida would do…. Does she know how you feel?

  159. 909
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 901:

    Basically the same as Eastsider’s MID theory only working if you start only at May of 2018.

    Nope. You are still confused. MID previously only applied to $1m mortgage and was reduced to $750k for joint filings. The loss of $250k interest deduction, assuming 3.5% interest rate, is $8,750. But the tax law changes also increase standard deduction by $11,300 for couples. So overall it is a “net gain” for borrowers. (Note that net gains disappear for high income households due to much lower SALT limits in high income tax states but WA is not one of them.)

    Now a 1% reduction in mortgage interest rates due to FED policy is worth $10k (pre-tax!) on a $1m loan.

    On the whole, MID is not even a factor in the declining prices in the high end in Seattle, for most buyers anyway. You should consult a tax accountant before pushing this stupid theory of yours. High end houses are not selling because they are priced in the bubble territory, not because of tax law changes.

  160. 910

    RE: Eastsider @ 909 – Again I ask…what is your definition of “high end”. How does the MID work for a $2.25 Million dollar house with 20% down?

  161. 911
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 910 – If you are buying a $2.2m home, or a $10m home, the deduction is pocket change. Really. You make over $.5m a year for goodness sake. You will also have the best tax accountant to help you navigate tax laws and generally pay less taxes than you should anyway.

    Yes, you may ‘lose’ some tax saving but you save a ton living in a state with ZERO state income tax.

    Finally, if you really want to complain, it should be SALT, not MID as I pointed out in my previous comment.

    P.s. MID was limited to $1m before the change in tax law reduced it to $750k. So it makes no difference if it is $1m, $2.2m, or $10m.

  162. 912
    Deerhawke says:

    HEY TIM!

    WAKE UP!

    IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO POST HERE EVEN OCCASIONALLY, THAT IS YOUR BUSINESS. THE SITE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY OLD ENTITLED RIGHT WING CRANKS AND HAS BEEN DYING ANYWAY.

    BUT IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO MONITOR AND DELETE REVOLTING CONTENT POSTED HERE BY DISGUSTING EXCUSES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ( See #907), THEN JUST SHUT IT DOWN!

  163. 913
    Brian says:

    By Deerhawke @ 912:

    HEY TIM!

    WAKE UP!

    IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO POST HERE EVEN OCCASIONALLY, THAT IS YOUR BUSINESS. THE SITE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY OLD ENTITLED RIGHT WING CRANKS AND HAS BEEN DYING ANYWAY.

    BUT IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO MONITOR AND DELETE REVOLTING CONTENT POSTED HERE BY DISGUSTING EXCUSES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ( See #907), THEN JUST SHUT IT DOWN!

    Jesus christ, who posts that kind of link blindly for everyone to click? What a sick person.

  164. 914
    Voight-Kampff says:

    By Deerhawke @ 912:

    HEY TIM!

    WAKE UP!

    IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO POST HERE EVEN OCCASIONALLY, THAT IS YOUR BUSINESS. THE SITE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY OLD ENTITLED RIGHT WING CRANKS AND HAS BEEN DYING ANYWAY.

    BUT IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO MONITOR AND DELETE REVOLTING CONTENT POSTED HERE BY DISGUSTING EXCUSES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ( See #907), THEN JUST SHUT IT DOWN!

    I pity David, he clearly has serious unresolved issues. Pitiful.

  165. 915
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 912
    Not good. This is a diverse group and that’s not okay.

  166. 916

    RE: David @ 907
    Deerhawke hates Your Chinese Cuisine URL, Fried Donkey Genitals

    Well, it kind of offended me too [it was shaped like chicken piece, but resembled the real thing], but Hades, you should see what the Asians speak about too at Toastmasters meetings, eating real bird nests with dried poop, its a special expensive dinner there.

    Lighten up Deerhawke, its just food culture differences.

    Did you hear on FOX news yesterday? Half the Conservatives [about half the state] plan to move out of the Sanctuary State, because of homelessness, crime and taxes; that should not affect RE prices….no, not at all….LOL

    Time to Tip Your Mugs of Yuban, Smile and read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, November 6, 2019
    Tim Eyman on election night
    Voters approving Tim Eyman’s $30 car-tab measure
    Tim Eyman laughs before giving a “victory speech” last night, 15 minutes before the ballot deadline. He had plenty to smile about later when results showed voters favoring his $30 car-tab measure. If Initiative 976’s lead holds as more ballots are counted, expect a legal fight and months of hand-wringing over cuts to Sound Transit and other transportation spending. Watch Eyman’s speech. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    MORE ELECTION RESULTS

    Kshama Sawant is trailing Egan Orion in the Seattle City Council’s priciest race, while other incumbents lead. Columnist Danny Westneat looks at what this tells us about the huge questions looming over Seattle politics.
    Affirmative action Referendum 88 is failing, but last-minute ballots could change that.
    King County Councilmember Larry Gossett is seeing the end of a long era, with Girmay Zahilay well ahead.
    Find results for the King County Medic One levy, elections director and assessor, Port of Seattle Commission, Seattle School Board, Bellevue City Council, Medina’s property-tax increase and mayoral races in Redmond and Renton.
    On the national scene, Democrats are celebrating key wins in closely watched Virginia … where the cyclist who lost her job after flipping off President Donald Trump’s motorcade also scored an election victory.
    Read local updates and analysis here, and bookmark our results page for the freshest vote counts all week.

    NEED TO KNOW
    Impeachment revelation: Northwest hotelier and U.S. ambassador Gordon Sondland says he told a Ukrainian official that U.S. aid likely hinged on whether Ukraine agreed to President Donald Trump’s demand for an investigation of Joe Biden. That gives Democrats a valuable piece of evidence against Trump. Here’s how Sondland, from Mercer Island, became a crucial figure in all of this.

    Sky watchers, get ready to see a celestial wonder. You may get a rare chance to watch Mercury cross the path of the sun early next week. But you’ll need to dig out your binoculars and, for safety’s sake, use a sun filter or solar eclipse glasses. Here’s when to look. A state-run observatory is back in action after a big renovation, just in time to give the public a glimpse.
    This deal has our vote:
    Save over 90% on a digital subscription during our Election Sale. Cancel anytime.
    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    ‘FIRE IS MESMERIZING’
    Glass art in motion
    An art career was inspired when a dollop of molten glass began to drip. Now Etsuko Ichikawa dances and draws with superheated glass in Seattle, creating works that are sinuous, elegant and surprising. Take a look. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    No bonus for Boeing’s CEO: Dennis Muilenburg is waiving his bonus and declining equity grants for at least a year, until the 737 MAX’s grounding recedes into the past. This translates into a loss for Muilenburg of at least $10 million — and maybe significantly more.

    A “Jeopardy!” winner from SeaTac is back for the “Tournament of Champions.” Ryan Fenster, who turns 26 tomorrow, took a breather from his classes in Denmark to compete in the quarterfinals, airing Friday. He talks about his simple winning strategy, along with the return of prolific winner James Holzhauer (who appears on TV tonight).

    Seattle chef Tom Douglas’ empire will pay out $2.4 million to more than 1,000 present and former employees after settling a class-action lawsuit. The restaurants are accused of not disclosing how much of a 20% service fee billed to customers went to the service workers, and of not providing adequate breaks.

    Hunter Bryant is having a breakout season for the Huskies. But could he soon bolt to the NFL Draft? While UW fans ponder that, they can celebrate the fact that the Dawgs have landed the best long snapper in the nation.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    This ‘Jeopardy!’ winner from SeaTac is returning for ‘Tournament of Champions’: Who is Ryan Fenster
    ‘Midway’ review: Respectful tale of pivotal World War II naval battle soars
    Artists lose their heads, figuratively and literally, in ‘White’ and ‘The Revolutionists’ at Seattle’s 12th Ave Arts

    Provided by Eastside Tree Works
    If you have trees near your home, driveway or parking strip, check their health and growth before the winter storms come roaring in. The region’s wet weather and powerful winds can be a dangerous combination, so be prepared.
    WORTH A READ
    After drug-cartel gunmen killed Devin Langford’s mother and brothers, the 13-year-old hid six of his other siblings to keep them safe and went for help. He didn’t return, so his 9-year-old sister followed, walking for hours in the dark. A clearer picture is emerging of how the American children survived an ambush and the agonizing hours that followed in northern Mexico.

    About 1 in 10 children in Seattle Public Schools could eventually be kept home over missing vaccination records. But Seattle doesn’t plan to start excluding kids until January. Two months into the school year, many local districts haven’t figured out how many students should be barred from classes under a new state law.

    Moira’s Seattle Times Book Club will be reading … drumroll, please … a wickedly good thriller called “My Sister, the Serial Killer.” Here’s how to join the literary fun. Author Oyinkan Braithwaite talks about not knowing her story was funny until critics got ahold of it.

    Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are California dreaming. They’re heading that way soon for a breather with baby Archie, and house-shopping may be on the agenda.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    People take more photos than ever before, but what good are they if they just pile up in your phone? Get serious about sorting with physical and off-site storage like the cloud, and read these tricks to tame an unruly digital photo collection.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    At a time when the Puget Sound region’s population is exploding, I-976 will hamstring infrastructure construction that’s needed to keep the region livable, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 56. Low 39. Sunrise 7:00. Sunset 4:44.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    Sunnyside native Bonnie Dunbar, the state’s first female astronaut, in 1985 completes her first mission in space, when the shuttle Challenger lands at Edwards Air Force Base in California after orbiting Earth for a week. Dunbar, a University of Washington engineering graduate, flies into space four more times before retiring from NASA in 2005. Altogether, Dunbar spent more than 50 days in space, traveling more than 20 million miles and orbiting Earth nearly 800 times. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    Hey, I’m spending my $300 tab fees on more Christmas presents instead..

    The Doctor asked me if I wanted the new Flu Vaccination shot containing Mercury…I told him no, its the old virus that died out mostly, it does not protect you from the new flu virus this winter. He didn’t argue with me, he knew I was right. Hades, let their parents make medical decisions like shots for kids not government. I never get the flu and I never get the shot either…..LOL

  167. 917

    The Democrats Decreased the Republican Governor lead By One in a Close Race

    Now, how do you stop the Republicans from flipping “single” states too?

    As of June 2019, 27 states have Republican governors and 23 states have Democratic governors. Additionally, three U.S. territories (American Samoa, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands) have Democratic governors, while one (the Northern Mariana Islands) has a Republican governor.

  168. 918
    Blake says:

    By Deerhawke @ 912:

    HEY TIM!

    WAKE UP!

    IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO POST HERE EVEN OCCASIONALLY, THAT IS YOUR BUSINESS. THE SITE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY OLD ENTITLED RIGHT WING CRANKS AND HAS BEEN DYING ANYWAY.

    BUT IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO MONITOR AND DELETE REVOLTING CONTENT POSTED HERE BY DISGUSTING EXCUSES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ( See #907), THEN JUST SHUT IT DOWN!

    Agree… It was pretty nice over a decade ago when I “joined.” Shame.

    Deerhawke and others with a brain: Here’s something worth reading from Ray Dalio.
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio/

    I agree, but who knows what this “big paradigm shift” will entail and especially WHEN it will happen!

  169. 919
    Erik says:

    RE: Blake @ 918
    Tim sold us out for money.

  170. 920
    Dave says:

    Two points Deerhawke,

    First, your perception is accurate, there are an increasing number of Bots [programs] and Trolls [people] that intentionally or unintentionally exhibit downright uncivilized posting behavior, especially on unmoderated boards like this.

    Second, because a percentage of the noise is [unintentional], if you find a post upsetting either ignore it or add a simple [Post #907 = #FakeNews] or something like that. Otherwise TDS may ensue, [Trump Derangement Syndrome], google it, there are graduate students studying this lunacy right now.

    I too have watched this board degrade a bit from the more moderated days of a decade ago where over 80% of the posts were useful in some way, now Id say it’s closer to 15%., no offense Tim.

    By Deerhawke @ 912:

    HEY TIM!

    WAKE UP!

    IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO POST HERE EVEN OCCASIONALLY, THAT IS YOUR BUSINESS. THE SITE HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY OLD ENTITLED RIGHT WING CRANKS AND HAS BEEN DYING ANYWAY.

    BUT IF YOU ARE TOO BUSY TO MONITOR AND DELETE REVOLTING CONTENT POSTED HERE BY DISGUSTING EXCUSES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ( See #907), THEN JUST SHUT IT DOWN!

  171. 921
    David says:

    By Erik @ 919:

    RE: Blake @ 918
    Tim sold us out for money.

    Wow! So much outrage over authentic Chinese food. Jeesh.

  172. 922
    David says:

    Tim Eyman is a true hero of the State. He should be given protected status by the Legislature.

    Now Eyman needs a new initiative creating a radical Homestead law that creates a NEGATIVE property tax rate for anyone who bought a house prior to the ST3 passing. Front-weighted and then descending until the radical raise in property tax is paid back to the homeowner at 12% interest rates (the typical statutory rate for judgment lien creditors).

  173. 923
    S-Crow says:

    To lighten the mood, how about some Escrow in the trenches funnies:

    Client: calls us yesterday and completely loses it literally yelling ” who gave you the right to inform the IRS that we sold our house! Now we have to pay taxes on it!! ”

    Escrow: Umm, that 1099-S form you signed and that I provided to you WHEN I MET WITH YOU FACE TO FACE said the gross proceeds were X amount. It reports your sales price, not your taxable responsibility/gain. There is no way we would know that.

    Client: crickets.

  174. 924
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 921
    I liked the video. I watched it twice and thought it was funny.

    I ask you don’t post more of that on here because some of my friends on here probably find it offensive. There are woman on this site. Therefore, I ask you to keep that to the appropriate crowd.

  175. 925
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 924 – They attacked – and I always attack back relentlessly. Don’t attack and then it is assumed one won’t get burned back.

  176. 926
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 925 – Your one handed typing is so fierce!! Didn’t you say you are a public defender? With the level of argument you’ve demonstrated on this thread, you support the old stereotype that people who have to rely on a public defender are going to get convicted.

  177. 927

    I Found the Blogs on SB Years Ago Were Not Better

    They were worse. They were generally just slanted to the seller experts [not the buyers], that were more wrong than right for the buyers. Haughty words and politically correct to protect the sellers from shame are not real estate advice. We buy because we’re happy and want to reward ourselves for endless work and making a living.

    Explain why you thought the SB was a better communication devise in the past for buyers too?

    Now that we’re calmed down and singing “Kum-Bi-Yaw” around the camp fire again…pass me the coffee pot warming in the camp fire and fill my mug with Yuban, let’s read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Thursday, November 7, 2019
    King County Councilmember Larry Gossett
    Trailing in his reelection bid, a civil-rights leader reflects on his storied career
    Larry Gossett is lauded as the “conscience” of the King County Council, with a legendary past that includes his very own FBI file. But that past doesn’t seem to have moved voters to reelect him, as challenger Girmay Zahilay leads in the latest tally. Gossett and others are tracing his roots, his leadership and what appears to be his downfall in a fast-changing region. It’s a shame that ageism cast a shadow over the twilight of his career, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Seattle and King County are suing to stop $30 car tabs from going into effect. The initiative that voters approved Tuesday is unconstitutional, leaders say as Gov. Jay Inslee hit the brakes on transportation projects that aren’t underway. More:

    Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant has a chance to catch Egan Orion. As more votes come in, here are five things to know about the crucial City Council elections.
    Need to catch up? Take a quick look at what voters decided and what’s up in the air. Find all of our election coverage, and stay tuned as ballot counts are reported this afternoon.
    Across the nation, the political surge by women is growing.

    A former Twitter employee arrested in Seattle has been charged with using his access to spy for Saudi Arabia. The case against Ahmad Abouammo and a former coworker is the first time federal prosecutors have publicly accused the kingdom of running agents in the United States.

    A standard driver’s license won’t get you through airport security at this time next year. It might be wise to remedy that before a rush hits the DMV. We tackled readers’ questions about the identification you’ll need, the hoops you’ll have to jump through and more.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    THROWBACK THURSDAY
    Throwback Thursday photo from Seattle
    Think Seattle is booming now? The city’s population doubled in a three-year stretch around the time this photo was taken, as Seattle rocketed past Walla Walla to become Washington’s biggest city. The pile of bricks on the left hints at things to come. Can you guess about when this photo was taken, and where? Check your answer and see what stands there now. (Photo courtesy of Museum of History & Industry)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Why were people in puffy dolphin and polar-bear suits waddling around Pioneer Square yesterday? Climate activists are upset with what they call the Port of Seattle’s “deal with the devil” to put a new cruise ship terminal nearby.

    New Seahawk Josh Gordon, who’s been suspended for more NFL games than he’s played, will practice today with his third team in 14 months. Will this time be different? And as the Seahawks face Monday’s big test against the league’s only undefeated team, we look at whether they can keep winning these heart-poundingly close games.

    It’s Oscar-bait time, when movie studios roll out their best award-season hopefuls. Peek at the biggest movies coming up, and don’t miss the jaw-dropping, four-star “Doctor Sleep.” Then there’s the new James Dean film: He’s been dead for 64 years, but his computer-generated self is sparking an outcry.

    The star of Food Network’s “Iron Chef” has a much-hyped Seattle restaurant. Our critics dish about the good, the bad and the weird at Momosan. They’re dreaming of their top spot for ramen in Seattle, while elsewhere, a Rant & Rave reader gets cranky about a common practice by restaurants.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Is your Washington driver’s license compliant with REAL ID? We’ve got answers to your questions.
    It’s Oscar-bait time. Here are the big, prestigious movies coming in winter 2019.
    ‘Last Christmas’ review: It’s Emilia Clarke’s elf costume that steals our heart

    Provided by Seattle Pacific University
    Getting paid to work on Xbox video games like the ones he grew up playing was a dream job for 22-year-old Tacoma native Ben Madlena. See how targeted networking helped him land the job before he even finished college.
    WORTH A READ
    A hit-and-run driver killed a bicyclist in Covington last night. Police are searching for the driver.

    Seattle may spend millions more to open tiny-house villages, buy mobile restrooms for homeless people and boost a jail-diversion program. The City Council is talking about making cuts elsewhere to help pay for this.

    Husky basketball may have its best big-men tandem ever, and Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels are only freshmen. As columnist Matt Calkins looks at whether this team is underrated, here are three players to watch. Plus, the Seattle U men appear headed for exciting times, while the women are itching to rebound.

    A last blast of fall foliage: Mother Nature’s fashion show is especially brilliant this year, and there’s no better place to admire it than South Seattle’s Kubota Garden. Our Fall Hikes feature explores how to make the most of the 20-acre oasis, which is infused with local history.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Not knowing the answer to questions in high-pressure situations doesn’t have to lead to embarrassment. Don’t be a deer in the headlights: Learn how to respond in a gracious and truthful manner when you don’t know what to say.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    For decades, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has slow-walked the cleanup of polluted Bradford Island, in the Columbia River. The Seattle Times editorial board writes that this site should be added to the Superfund list so the EPA can oversee cleanup.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 57. Low 39. Sunrise 7:02. Sunset 4:42.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Tacoma Narrows Bridge spanning Puget Sound between Tacoma and the Key Peninsula collapses in a high wind in 1940, only four months after it is dedicated. The bridge oscillates even as it is being built: Construction workers suck lemons to combat seasickness and dub the bridge “Galloping Gertie.” The engineering failure becomes a textbook case and revolutionizes designs and procedures for building suspension bridges. The second Narrows Bridge, incorporating lessons learned, opens in 1950, and a third suspension bridge in 2007. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    The Tacoma Bridge worked better with just two lanes merging onto one lane on I-5, with the current “Two Bridge” 4 lanes converging on 1 its a complete mess, in comparison. DOT, please give me an understandable written explanation why 4 lanes converging into 1 lane is better?

    Our understanding Gov Inslee wants to squash your $30 Tab vote with good old fashion Fascism. What else would you call it, defying the vote of the people? Democracy? LOL

  178. 928

    RE: softwarengineer @ 927

    “I Found the Blogs on SB Years Ago Were Not Better”

    I think I told you this 10 years ago, but I’ll try again. :) It will make you more credible and people will skip over you less if you get this one thing right.

    There is ONLY one BLOG and it is called Seattle Bubble. There are not a bunch of blogs.

    There is only one person who writes “blogs” which are actually Blog Posts and that is Tim unless he has a guest writer once in awhile.

    The thing that you and I and everyone else do here is COMMENT, write comments, on Tim’s Blog called Seattle Bubble on his Blog Posts.

    None of us are blogging here…except Tim. We are merely commenting here on his Blog Posts.

    You can say the comments were worse or better…but not “the blogs”.

    If you don’t get that…I’ll try again in another 10 years…if we’re both still alive and kicking. :)

    It’s like calling your dinner plate a coffee cup…anything you say after that may get ignored.

  179. 929

    RE: Erik @ 924

    Actually that video is probably more frightening to men than women. :) I wouldn’t even have clicked on it if Deerhawke didn’t freak out about it. When I did it made me not want to make that Italian Sausage for dinner after all…but I’ve seen people eat worse things in videos.

  180. 930
    OA says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 929

    hahahahahahaha

  181. 931
    Eastsider says:

    US 10yr yield is on an uptrend. It yields as high as 1.96% this morning, its highest since July. The low in the past 3 months was .5% lower at 1.46% on September 3rd. The current yield is still about 1.3% lower than a year ago. The FED may be losing influence on the long rate (in addition to the overnight rate, hmm…) The increasing yield will likely put pressure on home prices in the coming year. I am not suggesting that prices will retreat at this time but if rates continue to go up another 100 basis points, all bets are off.

  182. 932
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 929
    Hahaha! I guess you are probably right about which gender would be more shocked by this.

    I wouldn’t have clicked it either if deerhawke didn’t freak out. I wonder why this affected deerhawke so greatly?

    Honestly, I’d eat it too if it tasted good. I have no shame though.

  183. 933
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 932

    My parents grew up during the Great Depression. I dont think they wasted any part of an animal or fish.. My grandmother liked tripe. Intestines and brains more godawful to eat I think, and many do.

  184. 934

    RE: Eastsider @ 931

    Translating to mortgage rates, just locked in a 3.75% with a 3.76% APR. Going rate is more like 3.875% with an APR of 3.95%. That’s a pretty big jump since September.

  185. 935
    S-Crow says:

    Just had a client who paid a little over $10k in prepaid interest (fee) to buy down their rate to 3.625% 30 yr fixed. It was the largest buy down I’ve seen in a very long time.

  186. 936
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 934 – 10yr yield increased 23 basis points, or nearly .25%, within the past week. Mortgage rates will follow (very) soon.

  187. 937

    OK Ardelle a Comment is Not a Blog

    Using that vernacular bend I like reading the comments more than the blog itself in many cases, BTW, I sure hope you’re recovering from the eye thing. That’s a Hades of lot more importance than trivial fights on the Bubblehead comments lately….I’m wondering if the “alleged” delicious Asian treat was really just saucy fried chicken in a horrifying shape/name as a joke…

    Well lazy retired SWE is up and slurping down his Yuban, let’s read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Friday, November 8, 2019
    Plane and paddleboarders
    Pilots, paddleboarders clash over crowded Lake Union
    This doesn’t look especially safe, does it? Kenmore Air and its Lake Union neighbors are facing off over the crowded waters, with the company pushing for better regulation of a 3,000-foot-long seaplane-landing zone that runs down the center of the lake. The conflict between the lake’s commercial and recreational users has been growing with the city’s booming population. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times, 2017)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Seattle home prices climbed faster in October than they have for a year. Are we returning to the days of zippy growth and ultra-tight inventory? Well, no, at least not in the city. See what’s happening around you with this area-by-area look.

    Tolls start tomorrow in Seattle’s Highway 99 tunnel, with costs depending on what time of day you travel. Our Q&A tackles what you’d pay, what happens if you don’t have a pass and more.

    Lawmakers investigating Boeing are pursuing “potentially catastrophic” new safety issues with the 737 MAX and the 787 Dreamliner, and questioning why FAA managers backed Boeing’s contention that there was no cause for concern.

    The president of the Seattle King County NAACP branch has been suspended amid allegations of financial impropriety. Sadiqa Sakin’s suspension heightens turmoil in the civil-rights organization that was already extreme, fed by accusations, a police investigation, a social-media storm and charges of misogynistic harassment.

    Election catch-up: Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant drew much closer to challenger Egan Orion in yesterday’s vote count. Meanwhile, Seattle and King County want a court to hit the brakes on $30 car tabs until a legal battle plays out, and Grant Degginger has conceded to Sam Cho in their Seattle Port Commission race. Here’s a quick look at what else has been decided as results keep coming in.
    Enjoy Morning Brief? Then you’ll love full digital access. Help us continue to bring you the news you care about, now. Subscribe to The Seattle Times for just $1 to start.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    SKIING TO THE SOUTH POLE
    Skiier pulls a sled
    A North Bend couple in their 40s staked their lives, quit a job, put a business on hold, and left their 12-year-old son at home to fulfill their dream of skiing 570 miles across Antarctica, completely unassisted. Now Chris and Marty Fagan are telling the tale of their life-changing 48 days alone together on one of Earth’s last wild frontiers. (Photo courtesy of Chris and Marty Fagan)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Value Village is closing its last Seattle store. There’s still time for a last visit to the Crown Hill location. The chain has held a special place in Seattleites’ hearts.

    New-house nightmare: A Madison Valley couple says their plans for a dream house slammed to a halt when the Seattle firm they’d hired to build an environmentally friendly prefabricated dwelling said, “Sorry, we don’t have any money.” The couple, who are out about $200,000 after switching to another company, aren’t the only buyers left in the lurch by Greenfab Homes.

    The Sounders have an exceedingly precious opportunity: Win the MLS Cup on home soil, in front of 70,000 Seattle fans. Columnist Larry Stone looks at just how historic Sunday’s game could be. If you scored tickets, you could show up early for some fun before kickoff. If not, there are plenty of other lively places to watch the game.

    Hidden on the Fremont Bridge is a teeny doorway, fit for a mouse. Can you find it? Seattle Sketcher gives us a little peek and talks to the street art’s creator.

    Money Makeover: Nurse Sara Omary, 29, had resigned herself to paying student loans for the rest of her life: “It’s like a mole on my face. It’s there forever.” But moving to Seattle strained her budget, so she sought free advice from a financial planner — and came away with an eye-opening plan that could help other young Seattleites.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Skiing to the South Pole: One North Bend couple’s tale of their 48-day, 570-mile journey across Antarctica
    What’s there to do in Seattle this weekend? MLS Cup, fall hikes and more
    7 movies open Nov. 8 in the Seattle area; our reviewers weigh in

    Provided by Amazon
    South Lake Union has seen an influx of 50,000 people, most from outside Seattle, who have transformed a sleepy industrial neighborhood to a thriving international community. But what’s behind this catalyst for growth?
    WORTH A READ
    A Seattle teen and her baby brother were taken on a terrifying, high-speed ride through North Seattle after two thieves got into their mother’s car and hit the gas, police say. Their father sprinted after them and was dragged several blocks, according to police. A suspect has been charged.

    Sam Nang Lam was asleep in his home when shots rang out, killing the 56-year-old South Park man. Police yesterday arrested a suspect, and they believe he meant to target a different house. Lam, an immigrant from Vietnam, “gave up everything to see his children have a better life,” his obituary reads.

    A judge has ordered President Donald Trump to pay $2 million for misusing his charitable foundation to boost his own interests. In other presidential news, an anonymous author described as a senior White House official has written a chilling book comparing Trump to an “elderly uncle running pantsless across the courtyard” at a nursing home.

    Did you get a bizarre text yesterday? A mysterious wave of missives swept America’s phones, causing awkward situations. More peculiarities:

    Animals were in weird places. A Maine lobsterman hauled up an enormous (and exhausted) catch, a California cop learned the perils of poking his head in a dumpster, and an Indiana school went on lockdown because of a dramatic intruder.
    Then there’s Sandra the orangutan, who’s been granted personhood.
    Darlene Quinn had to hike 24 miles (!!) to and from work every day … until friends and strangers gave her a heartwarming lift.
    Something must have been in the water at this sheriff’s office. The resulting picture is awfully cute.

    Produced by Advertising Publications
    When it comes to Christmas movies, audiences are in love, actually. Lifetime has quadrupled its Christmas output in the past two years and Netflix has doubled its in the same time. Here are 2019’s best new Christmas movies.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Seattle’s refreshed City Council must rise to big challenges, rebuild trust, and restore the city’s reputation as a place of strong and responsive local governance, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Fog, then clouds. High 59. Low 48. Sunrise 7:03. Sunset 4:41.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1910, Washington’s male electorate ratifies Amendment 6 to the state constitution, granting women the right to vote. The vote breaks a 14-year gridlock in the national suffrage crusade, and the state becomes the fifth in the nation to enfranchise women. Nationwide, women gain equal suffrage 10 years later, through ratification of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1920. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    Better journalism Seattle Times today, less partisan. I’d stay away from anonymous sources articles, they are all likely fake partisan news/books anyway.

  188. 938

    The Safety Problems at Boeing Haven’t Changed Since the 90s

    Read Michael Crichton’s 1992 “Airframe” book. It sounds like today at Boeing Seattle.

    BTW, Seattle real estate investors today rely on commercial A/C assembly production mostly…but I see Lockheed scored MASS DOD F135 billions yesterday, maybe Boeing Defense Systems will get a bone…

  189. 939

    They Lied to Us In Seattle?

    Get a degree and a easily acquired “normal” 6 figure “avg Seattle area household”HUGE salary and grab up listed Seattle RE with ease?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/unemployment-trends-recent-college-graduates-203524396.html

    I guess the Seattle fire departments’ new college degree requirements and hospital “arithmetic” billing college degreed “business degree” jobs that high school diplomas alone normally grabbed up is now a joke too…LOL

  190. 940
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 936 – The yield curve has uninverted. Party on!

  191. 941
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 937
    Nice blog SWE :)

  192. 942

    RE: Erik @ 941
    If It Was Really Donkey or Horse meat product, why did they cook it like fried chicken? Another anomaly I thought of is the “fried chicken shape” is enlarged way beyond the shriveled butcher size of real genitals at a hotdog plant…about 5-10 times too big, remember I was brought up on a farm.

  193. 943
    whatsmyname says:

    Before this completely turns into the Donkeymeat Bubble, MLS stats have been out for some time:

    New listings down from 2,558 to 2,303 (9.97%) YOY
    Total listings down 25.71% YOY
    Pending sales up 12.94% YOY
    Closed sales up 8.43% YOY
    Closed prices down 1.64% YOY

    Although, as Ardell has said, the whole market has too many dissimilar pieces. You have to look at what area you want, so for prices;

    SW King up 5.54% YOY
    SE King up 7.10% YOY
    Seattle up 3.33% YOY
    N King down 1.18% YOY
    Eastside up 1.12% YOY
    Vashon down 18.09% YOY

  194. 944
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 933
    Since humans switched to only eating the best cuts, we are finding now that we should be utilizing the bones and organ meat. All those parts we stopped eating were actually good for our health.

  195. 945
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 940 – And the socialist takeover is now complete.

  196. 946

    SWE and All His “Grey Fox Buddies With $CASH$” Are Buying Up Most of the Seattle Area Homes

    Games over for the Milenials folks, most just don’t qualify for JUMBO Mortgages now:

    “…Older buyers

    The median age of all homebuyers hit 47, the highest since 1981 when the report first began. The age of first-time buyers reached a record high of 33, while the median age of repeat buyers maintained its peak from last year at 55.

    One reason why the median age is increasing is because younger buyers simply can’t buy a house. There are too few entry-level houses available for sale.

    “If you think who the first-time homebuyer is, it’s someone whose income hasn’t grown [recently],” McGrath said. “They don’t have the flexibility with down payments.”

    Student debt is also dragging first-time buyers down. College students today graduate with about $30,000 in student loans, according to savingsforcollege.com. Their monthly payments can make it hard to save for a down payment or qualify for a mortgage….”

    https://www.yahoo.com/money/2019-housing-market-151141576.html

    You better be nice to us retired grey foxes, your homes’ value depends on my generation staying put….if you’re mean to us, we’ll all move with Dave to Florida….LOL

  197. 947

    Trump’s Horrifying Tariffs Driving Chinese Prices Down?

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/samsung-4k-tv-deals-walmart-151059714.html

    $228 for Chinese flat screen smart TVs with all the bells and whistles, throw that old Asian LED in the trash and buy up for $228?

    Who would know? LOL

  198. 948

    Get Out the Tire Chains and Ice Scrapers

    Prepare for Seattle’s horrifying driving on un-salted icy hills this winter, Climate Change across America is bitterly COLD again this year, like last year…

    https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Hundreds-of-records-could-fall-in-next-week-s-14820980.php

    Ohhhh…its not getting colder, this is just a Winter vortex anomaly, whatever the Hades that is….LOL…moving to Florida is looking better each cold winter.

  199. 949
    don says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 947
    Samsung be Korean

  200. 950

    RE: don @ 949
    Yes Don, But Tear the Plastic Covers Off and Tear Out the Asian Innards and Low and Behold, Its Full of Chinese Parts….I’m Sure It Applies to Japanese Electronics Brands Too

    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=Awr9EmkWf8ldESYAHFBXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByNWU4cGh1BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw–?p=samsung+tv+uses+chinese+parts&fr=yset_ff_syc_hp

  201. 951

    Time to Plug Your Leaf Car in for Its Five 5 Hour Recharge Anyway, So Fill Your Mug With Yuban, Its Time to Read:

    “…The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Monday, November 11, 2019
    SECOND MLS TITLE FOR SOUNDERS
    Sounders win MLS Cup
    The Sounders are MLS champions, winning their second cup in four years in front of a rowdy and record-breaking crowd yesterday at CenturyLink Field. Sounders midfielder Victor Rodriguez and midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro, above, celebrate inside the stadium, and even more fans packed the streets outside and in Pioneer Square. The Sounders started slow, but a key substitution helped them explode in the second half and run away with the 3-1 win over Toronto FC. Next up, a parade tomorrow through downtown to celebrate. Here’s how to get in on the celebration. (Photo: Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Marking Veterans Day: Across the region, veterans are using a simple technique to exorcise the impacts of their military experiences: writing. Veteran Maggie Shartel kept what happened to her bottled up for years, but in a classroom, with those who had been there and understood, she cracked open: “It’s like therapy, but not going to therapy,” she says. The Red Badge Project will host a Women Veteran Reading at 7 p.m. tonight in Seattle. In Europe, ceremonies today note 101 years since the Armistice that ended World War I. President Trump plans to speak at the Veterans Day Parade in New York City. And here’s what’s open and closed around our region today.

    Return of a head tax? Seattle’s socialist City Councilmember Kashama Sawant declared victory over the weekend after a sensational comeback in her re-election bid. Most other business-backed City Council candidates came up short. Will the next council wade back into last year’s loud political debate and adopt something like what Sawant called the “Amazon tax?”

    Mercury may be on view this morning: The planet’s crossing of the path of the sun will be visible from 7:08 to 10:04 a.m. Pacific time, if the fog and cloud cover clear enough in the Seattle area. But you’ll need either a telescope or binoculars with a sun filter to safely view the phenomenon without damaging your eyes.

    Other election news: While frustration around homelessness may not have resulted in a political revolution in Seattle, fears about a Seattle-sized homelessness crisis taking root in other communities appears to have helped elect new leaders. The Snohomish County sheriff lost his reelection bid to a tough-on-crime challenger, and in both Federal Way and Port Angeles, voters approved measures related to homelessness. And Referendum 88, which would have ended a two-decade ban on affirmative action in Washington state, appears to have little chance of passing.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    How Red Mountain grew into premier wine region
    Red Mountain wine region
    The wine world is discovering Red Mountain, on the eastern edge of Yakima Valley, with grapes produced here, like these Syrahs at Col Solare winery, coveted by Washington’s best winemakers. When the first vines took root in the mid-1970s, there wasn’t much more here than sand and sagebrush. But recently, California’s Napa Valley learned of Red Mountain and found it more affordable, with the fruit and resulting wines up to their lofty standards. Newcomers in this small, brown ridge in the heart of wine country could remake Washington state’s wine industry. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    The Seahawks’ biggest game of the season looms tonight. An undefeated 49ers team means a revived rivalry — except this time, Richard Sherman is on the other side. One thing is certain: We’re about to find out how good the Seahawks really are. Here’s what to watch for in Monday Night Football and our writers’ predictions.

    Impeachment hearings go public this week: For only the fourth time in U.S. history, the House of Representatives has started a presidential impeachment inquiry. The Intelligence Committee will gavel in the sessions Wednesday to determine whether President Donald Trump violated his oath of office. In other presidential news, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley alleges in her memoir that two administration officials who were ultimately pushed out by Trump once tried to get her to join them in opposing some of his policies to “save the country.” And a giant balloon of a baby Trump that was on display to protest the president’s visit to a football game in Alabama was destroyed by a man who declared, “I am going down here to make a scene, so y’all watch the news.”

    After the fatal Lion Air crash, Boeing stuck with faulty assumptions about the 737 MAX and missed an opportunity to reevaluate before a second deadly crash happened. Flaws in the original safety analysis of MCAS are apparent after a second crash involving an Ethiopian Airlines MAX in March, and a great deal of reporting on what went wrong on both flights. See our complete MAX coverage here.

    More than 10,000 people with disabilities who use King County Metro’s Access paratransit services are looking forward to a better ride after a new contractor took over operating buses and a dispatch center. Janine Bertram, an Access rider, said she’s eager for the service to “get people there on time, not hours before an appointment and driven all around for a very long time.” But key issues remain.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Seattle Opera’s new production tells the stories of soldiers — and features a chorus of local veterans
    Intiman Theatre battles back from the brink by raising $130,000 in one month
    Travel Troubleshooter | Expedia guarantees a price match on hotel rooms then reneges on their promise. What gives?

    Provided by Washington State University
    WSU student to participate in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, as one of eight students in the U.S. who will be delegates for the American Chemical Society. Pursuing research opportunities paid off.
    WORTH A READ
    Expectations that flying taxis will be a reality are quickly building, with at least 20 companies in the market. Lilium, a start-up, illustrates the potential and challenges of creating a new generation of electric aircraft for urban transportation.

    After a fierce storm and king tides flooded a Fidalgo Island couple’s 1,800-square-foot cabin, they decided to raise the bar. See inside their modern, beachfront home built atop concrete pillars.

    Artificial intelligence is expected to disrupt workplaces across the world — but what about our souls? Seattle religious groups are grappling with the realities of technology that could “enhance the image of God.” As the lines between the digital and physical worlds are blurred, fundamental beliefs about the essence of humanity are now being called into question.

    Do you verbally beat yourself up to motivate yourself to work out harder, eat better or become a more “worthy” human? It’s time to stop, says wellness columnist Carrie Dennett. Negative conversations around health and nutrition are never helpful — especially when the chatter is directed at our own bodies.

    The Value Village thrift-store chain knowingly misled customers by deceptively marketing itself as a charity, a King County Superior Court judge has ruled. The Bellevue-based company, also known as Savers, is the largest for-profit thrift retailer in the world.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Is 40 hours a week in the office really necessary? This millennial says no, that a four-day workweek with remote work increases productivity and employee satisfaction, since most are productive only three to four hours a day.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Educators in K-12 schools — including advisers and counselors at middle schools and high schools — should spread the word about the tremendous opportunity at Washington state universities, where an expanded grant program is removing cost barriers for low-income students to attend, writes the Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Morning clouds, afternoon sun. High 57. Low 44. Sunrise 7:08. Sunset 4:37.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    Washington becomes the 42nd state in 1889, when U.S. President Benjamin Harrison signs the admitting bill. Also becoming states that day are the territories of North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. Before Washington can become a state, a constitution must be approved, with 75 men elected to the State Constitutional Convention, including 21 lawyers, 13 farmers, two loggers and two lumbermen. Women are not allowed to vote in Washington state until 1910. The constitution is approved by male voters Oct. 1, paving the way for statehood. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take

    We’ve Got a Long Way to Go to Get to AI, first we need TV controls that understand more than like 10% of our words….the bank check readers don’t work right either, if you don’t print like a draftsman…I haven’t tried the key machine robots, but I imagine their product is subpar to a human locksmith [won’t work much of the time]…Hades, the Detroit assembly robots were developed by America decades ago, and from what I’m reading and seeing, were more accurate than auto robots today…albeit the alternative regurgitated designs didn’t have Asian toy frames for sex dolls, etc…LOL

    Hey Seattle Times, Where are the college graduates gonna work in Seattle? Their unemployment rates are now higher than high school graduates with diplomas….basically service economy skills needed in Seattle anyway with no degree needed. I know, the U of W are hiring professors….LOL

  202. 952

    The Californian Leaving the State in Hoards are Not Welcomed With Open Arms Because of Their High Priced Overpopulation Real Estate Cultures

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-back-to-california-wave-of-newcomers-fuels-backlash-in-boise

    Hoards of transplants from California destroying Idaho now?

  203. 953
    don says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 950

    By that standard, the Tacoma Narrows bridge is possibly South Korean, as the deck sections were made by Samsung and brought to the Narrows by a Dutch ship and the wire for the suspension cables came from Japan [iirc]. It’s a judgement call any more, look at cars:

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/industrials/ford-gm-dont-make-the-most-american-made-car-heres-who-does

  204. 954

    Cage Up the Homeless in Seattle Like Animals?

    https://news.yahoo.com/capsule-living-cheap-option-young-people-flocking-la-161917564.html

    Put outside locks on the cages too, so they aren’t seen?

  205. 955
    whatsmyname says:

    *********************Post-Weekend Update*******************

    Inventory continues its seasonal decline in a very healthy way, and is at 3,111, (8pm).

    Of course, if you wanted to compare to 2018 inventory, you would want to use the column calculated in the same way as 2018. That number is 2,837.

    The equivalent number for 11/11/2018 (8pm) was 4,246,

    Sorry, no graphs.

  206. 956
    sfrz says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 933 – Very disheartening to see this rationalization of such a vile post. This person has posted several very disgusting things on this site and it was meant be exactly as they posted – disgusting. I have requested Tim to ban him a couple of times. I’m with Deerhawke. If there is no monitoring of the site, shut it down. This is not acceptable behavior. This site is dead.

  207. 957
    David says:

    Goldman Sachs sent me an analysis that says recession fears have abated – Democrat scheming be-damned.

    I have to wonder if the southward Tacoma expansion is going to persist? If so, then Seattle should abandon the bus-train they are building and go to BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) which is flexible and can be changed to meet changing conditions.

    We need to get a movement going to break up King County into 3 or more counties to rid the area of the undue influence of Seattle thinking.

  208. 958

    Grab Your Seahawk Garb and a mug of Yuban to Read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Tuesday, November 12, 2019
    Jason Myers celebrates
    What a game! Jason Myers plays the hero in Seahawks’ insane back-and-forth win
    Jason Myers celebrates his game-winning field goal in overtime after the Seahawks won and lost last night’s game again and again, finally coming out on top of San Francisco 27-24. What the heck happened? The Seahawks proved they’re for real, columnist Larry Stone writes. Jadeveon Clowney proved a few things, too, in the “craziest” game of his career. Seattle gets an A for guts and grit. But oh no: Tyler Lockett wound up in the hospital because of his leg injury. (Photo: Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Welcome to the first normal rush hour with a tolled Highway 99 tunnel. You can check traffic here for a real-time look at how things are flowing (or not). Where is that toll money going, anyway? A sizable chunk of every dollar is spent on just collecting tolls. “It’s horrible,” one key lawmaker observes.

    The fastest home-price growth in Western Washington isn’t in King or even Pierce County. King County’s spillover is heating up other midsize metropolitan centers in the region. One popular explanation has to do with gophers, oddly.

    Seattle Children’s has closed three operating rooms because of the same fungus that forced the shutdown of all the hospital’s ORs in the past. The hospital is also investigating two new infections caused by the mold. One patient who was sickened by last year’s mold later died.

    Former President Jimmy Carter is undergoing brain surgery this morning to relieve pressure from bleeding after his recent falls. Check back for updates. Carter, 95, has been making headlines for his resilience: He helped build a home the day after getting 14 stitches and cheerfully taught Sunday school soon after breaking his pelvis.

    The Sounders’ MLS championship parade happens today at noon in downtown Seattle. Here’s how to join the fun in this town that’s become besotted with soccer.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    KAYAKERS RESCUE PILOT
    Rescue crew works at site of plane crash
    Three kayakers sprang into action and rescued a 19-year-old pilot after his plane crashed yesterday in Lake Morton, south of Covington. Above, a marine rescue diver signals to the operator of an onshore tow winch. (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    Redhook Brewing, founded in an old Ballard transmission shop, will be fully absorbed by the brewing-industry giant it originally defied. It’s being bought out by Anheuser-Busch InBev, the global behemoth known for mass-produced beers like Budweiser.

    Did you see Mercury skipping across the vast, glaring face of the sun in a rare celestial transit yesterday? Enjoy the images.

    Amazon is taking aim at lower-cost grocery stores as it hungers for a trillion-dollar chunk of the economy. This is starting with a grocery that will open next year in suburban L.A. — and the stage is set for many more, a longtime grocery analyst says.

    The Northwest’s punk heroes are charging fearlessly into a new era. Sleater-Kinney, formed by Evergreen State College alumnae, is taking risks with a new sound that it will soon deliver live to Seattle fans. Have a listen.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    Sleater-Kinney refuse to be ‘boring’ as the Northwest punk heroes charge into a new era
    ‘The Report’ review: Even with Adam Driver, tale of CIA’s interrogation program gets dry
    In PNB’s ‘Locally Sourced,’ ballerinas dance through heartbreak, pregnancy and onstage rain

    Provided by Washington Forest Protection Association
    Technology and innovation in forest management and wood production can help curb climate change, support sustainability and make the milling process safer. Learn how harnessing science contributes to greener, safer forests.
    WORTH A READ
    Boeing expects 737 MAX deliveries to get a green light next month from the FAA, but the grounded airplanes likely won’t be cleared to carry passengers until as much as a month later. Then the airlines will need time to get the planes ready and train thousands of pilots.

    Protections for about 700,000 immigrants are on the line today at the Supreme Court. Justices are weighing the Trump administration’s push to end the DACA (or Dreamers) program, which has allowed immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to temporarily live and work in the country. The case may all come down to Chief Justice John Roberts.

    “We just found 80 men.” A U.S. Navy submarine lost with all hands in World War II has been discovered off Okinawa. It was hidden from discovery for the past 75 years because of a single errant digit.

    Arts lovers have plenty of unique options this week. Hurry if you want to see PNB’s “Locally Sourced,” in which ballerinas dance through heartbreak, pregnancy and onstage rain. And soldiers’ stories take center stage in Seattle Opera’s “The Falling and the Rising.” It includes a chorus of local veterans, some of whom are recovering from homelessness.

    Americans’ pumpkin obsession goes waaaay back past pumpkin spice lattes. Witness this 1935 recipe for pumpkin pie with wine, and a few other oldies but … well, hmmm. We’re not sure if they’re goodies. See what you think.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    It’s package theft season, due to the increase of home deliveries preceding the holidays. Here’s what to do if your packages are stolen — plus 11 useful tips to avoid it and ensure your purchases get to you safely.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Sunday’s tremendous win by Sounders FC also was a victory for the people of Seattle and Washington state. Record-setting attendance at CenturyLink Field and top-quality game experience should help attract World Cup games to the publicly owned stadium in 2026, writes The Seattle Times editorial board.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Morning rain. High 52. Low 46. Sunrise 7:10. Sunset 4:36.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    In 1939, an earthquake centered 12 miles northwest of Olympia rattles the Puget Sound area from 11:47 p.m. to 12:09 a.m. Chimneys collapse, and as far away as Seattle, buildings are damaged. No fatalities or injuries are reported. The 21-minute quake is not rated on the Richter Scale, which at the time was only 4 years old. Read more here on how to prepare for the next big temblor. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    The 2012 Obama Executive Order DACA minors are young adults now, many with criminal records BTW…the Democrats abandoned them in 2016, when offered legal path to citizenship by Trump….its too late to help them now IMO, end DACA.

    Has Boeing settled the damage lawsuits for the MAX 8 crash victims yet? Until this is settled, this fight is never ending IMO.

  209. 959
    OA says:

    By sfrz @ 956:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 933 – Very disheartening to see this rationalization of such a vile post. This person has posted several very disgusting things on this site and it was meant be exactly as they posted – disgusting. I have requested Tim to ban him a couple of times. I’m with Deerhawke. If there is no monitoring of the site, shut it down. This is not acceptable behavior. This site is dead.

    If this site is dead in your eyes then don’t visit it and comment. Feel free to ignore and scroll past certain commentators (I do, won’t mention their names), after all this is a blog on the internet. I’m not condoning that post you’re mentioning from earlier, but I don’t think it’s as outrageous as you’re making it seem. If this site was truly dead then we wouldn’t see over 900 comments.

  210. 960
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 956
    You have a child and now you are offended and revolted by the sight of a penis. At one time you wanted one and now you are appalled and offended at the sight of one. Sounds like more of an issue within yourself. Either that or you are pretending to be offended because David has different political views than you, which is totally what Deerhawke is doing.

  211. 961
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 959
    I agree, I think Sfrz only makes this site worse.

    We want smart people that understand the market on here.

  212. 962
    Voight-kampff says:

    Maybe his enthusiasm for this site has waned for personal reasons, but IMHO the absence of The Tim Is a leading indicator that we are not in a bubble… yet (at least not in a bubble as easily quantifiable as the last one) He was on top of the last one with near daily posts.

  213. 963
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 955

    Dear Reader,

    Estately changed its definition of SFH “house” on or around 2018-12-23. Redfin changed its definition of SFH “house” on 2019-10-22, but even after that Estately and Redfin do not match on SFH numbers.

    Therefore you cannot compare these numbers the way WMN does. Just ignore him.

  214. 964
    OA says:

    By Justme @ 963:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 955

    Dear Reader,

    Estately changed its definition of SFH “house” on or around 2018-12-23. Redfin changed its definition of SFH “house” on 2019-10-22, but even after that Estately and Redfin do not match on SFH numbers.

    Therefore you cannot compare these numbers the way WMN does. Just ignore him.

    So give us your updated numbers, would be good to see. Is the variance that significant?

  215. 965

    RE: sfrz @ 956

    Several seemed to be offended more because there were “women” on the site. Just making it clear that I don’t need men to be offended for me. I have pretty thick skin.

  216. 966
    uwp says:

    Let it be known that I do not, in fact, have the vapors.

  217. 967
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 965 – Jersey chops! =)

  218. 968
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 963:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 955

    Dear Reader,

    Estately changed its definition of SFH “house” on or around 2018-12-23. Redfin changed its definition of SFH “house” on 2019-10-22, but even after that Estately and Redfin do not match on SFH numbers.

    Therefore you cannot compare these numbers the way WMN does. Just ignore him.

    Interesting conundrum. Why not tell us what solution you used for your many graphs? In fact, why not just update your graph?

    A quick eyeball of your Weekend Update graph on post 273 of this very thread shows that your 2018 mid-November numbers were in the 4250 range – right where I was. Your 2019 September 1 is moving right through the 4,000 mark which closely parallels 4,055 to 3,985 that the Estately hourly data shows for that date. Again, a number I disclose.

    You are working the same numbers as I am; just failing to disclose that there is another published number less favorable to your cause, and that you are choosing one from column A and one from column B instead of being consistent in your source.

    Currently, the data from your preferred column shows inventory of 3,063. So again, why not put your money where your mouth is, and update that graph. It will only take a few minutes. Then we can agree that inventory is down about 1200 YOY.

  219. 969
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 962
    Google search “Tim Ellis Redfin.” He has all kinds of articles he’s posting for money. I liked the Seattlebubble articles wayyyy better, but that is why he isn’t posting here any longer. Tim is bought and paid for and will be producing garbage for the masses from now on. He sold us out for a few dollars and now he’s ruining his reputation with watered down crap.

  220. 970
    Eastsider says:

    Despite the inventory situation, prices have stalled. Now that rates are moving moderately higher, prices will be under pressure again. Check out the chart below if you have any doubt…

    https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/housing-bubble-reblown-last-chance-for-a-good-price-was-7-years-ago-QG1On8G8NECXH1co69i64Q/

  221. 971
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 970 – Hmmm, in what common direction did mortgage rates and house prices move between June 2003 and September 2008?

  222. 972
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 971 – OK, how about between June 2003 and August 2007?

  223. 973
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Erik @ 969

    I don’t blame him for trying to get paid, But I do hope our oracle of Everett returns.

  224. 974
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 972 – Obviously you have not seen the chart in the link I provided. Find a better argument if you believe prices are moving higher from here.

  225. 975
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 974 – Ah, but I have seen your chart. On it you can see that the current house price premium over wages is well under what accumulated in the period I mentioned. And this is off a higher base; and at lower interest rates which significantly cushion the difference in rent. Other things may work to hold back prices, but this is no gimme. That part is history.

  226. 976

    RE: don @ 953
    Yes Don, Detroit Laid Off 250,000 Technicals in 2007 per BLS, Including Ford

    Ford is a joke now too, it hasn’t enough “skills and experienced American engineers” [this takes 5-10 years to train them on-the-job, just an engineering college degree is useless] for good FWD sedan transmission design since then and that piece of junk they put on like the the Focus [it leaks transmission oil through the seals onto the clutch plate] has no warranty protection either, ask the Ford owners stuck with these worthless lemons.

  227. 977

    Time for Your Mug of Yuban and Read:

    The Seattle Times
    MORNING BRIEF
    Wednesday, November 13, 2019
    Sounders at parade
    Sounders soak up the hometown love
    Sounders captain Nicolas Lodeiro celebrates with his son Leandro during the MLS Cup championship rally in Seattle yesterday. As thousands of fans welcomed the team’s second MLS Cup home with the rally and a parade, players were already gunning for another cup that would cement Seattle’s first real sports dynasty. Enjoy yesterday’s spirited sights and sounds. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
    NEED TO KNOW
    The doors to the impeachment hearings swung wide open today. Watch and find updates as Republicans and Democrats lay out their competing cases and try to sway public opinion on President Donald Trump’s fate. Here are the key players and next steps, plus a guide to separating the facts from the fictions you’re likely to hear. The country has been here just thrice before, and this time is quite different.

    A WSU freshman from Bellevue has died at a fraternity. Officials say Samuel Martinez’s death may have been related to alcohol. All of WSU’s fraternities and sororities have suspended their social events for the rest of the semester while officials investigate. This is among several deaths at college fraternities in recent weeks.

    Washington voters have rejected affirmative-action Referendum 88, the latest ballot count shows. And one brand-new Seattle City Council member is feeling misunderstood as the elections are characterized as an Amazon-vs.-socialist smackdown. (Speaking of socialists, Egan Orion has conceded to socialist Councilmember Kshama Sawant while blasting Amazon’s “massive unneeded spending.”)

    Seahawk Tyler Lockett spent a second night in a California hospital due to severe swelling in his leg, but “he should be fine to play” Nov. 24 in Philadelphia, coach Pete Carroll says. The time of that game has been changed. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s bask in the numbers that stood out from Monday’s wild win.
    Rise and shine! And subscribe. We depend on subscribers to fund our award-winning independent journalism. Subscriptions start at just $1 a week.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY
    BRRRRRRRR
    Train on burning tracks in cold Chicago
    A train thunders over burning tracks in Chicago. They were set afire by railroad workers yesterday to fight the historic deep freeze that’s gripping much of the United States. Hundreds of records are falling as snow blankets nearly a third of the Lower 48 states; here are some of the eye-popping numbers. In the Seattle area, the forecast is just … November weather. (Photo: Antonio Perez / Chicago Tribune via AP)
    WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
    A feverish debate is raging in Seattle’s schools over how to address racial disproportionalities in gifted education. To chart the future, you often have to understand the past — and in this case, the archives hold key lessons about who gets to be called “highly capable” around our region.

    One of the Seattle area’s hottest up-and-coming rappers was homeless less than a year ago. Now Jay Loud has released a record with a prominent label. If not for a leap of faith and a chance encounter at a Tacoma fast-food joint, it might never have happened.

    “Jeopardy!” giant James Holzhauer will face the only player who could beat him, when the show’s Tournament of Champions final round airs this week. A punchy Holzhauer had plenty to say when Emma Boettcher snapped his 32-episode winning streak last summer. And in a sweet moment on Monday, another Jeopardy! contestant got host Alex Trebek all choked up.

    Northwest wines for your holiday feasts: What pairs with turkey? Which wine should you tote to a party? Andy Perdue recommends a case worth of wines for each of three upcoming holidays.
    LATEST LIFE STORIES

    In less than a year, Seattle-Tacoma rapper Jay Loud went from homelessness to landing a record deal
    Now streaming: Disney+ debuts with ‘The Mandalorian’ and more; ‘The Farewell’; ‘The Crown’
    Holiday fun gets going at Green Lake Gobble run/walk in Seattle, Nordic bazaar in Everett

    Provided by Pacific Northwest Ballet
    A behind-the-scenes look at “The Nutcracker” reveals a well-oiled machine of makeup artists ensuring on-point looks that can withstand sweat and bright lights for the duration of the show. See how many makeup specialists it requires.
    WORTH A READ
    Renton police shot a naked man who climbed into a McDonald’s drive-through and ran through the restaurant with a gun yesterday, the department said. The man was in serious condition.

    “My entire future is in the hands of nine people.” Anxious Seattle-area “Dreamers” and their supporters rallied yesterday as the Supreme Court heard arguments on President Donald Trump’s attempt to end the DACA program for people brought to the U.S. illegally as children. The majority of justices appeared ready to zap the protections that allow nearly 700,000 immigrants to work in the U.S.

    The Seattle company behind the “Uber for Trucking” app has scored $400 million in its latest fundraising round. Convoy announced its big load of cash today.

    If you’re snacky, go to White Center! From Cambodian doughnuts to Salvadorean sausages and roasted corn, you can eat your way through town like our food writer did.

    The most distant world ever explored has a new name. Small, icy Arrokoth is 4 billion miles from us, and it looks like a floating snowman.
    Produced by Advertising Publications
    Local ski and snowboard gear gets you ready for opening day on the slopes. Seattle’s winter sports companies know our Pacific Northwest terrain best. Standouts include an all-terrain orca snowboard as majestic as the real thing.
    EDITORIAL/OPINION
    Raising the federal age for buying e-cigarettes will make it more difficult for young people to access these potentially harmful products, The Seattle Times editorial board writes.
    TODAY’S WEATHER
    Clouds, then sun. High 55. Low 44. Sunrise 7:11. Sunset 4:35.
    TODAY IN HISTORY
    The Denny Party lands in 1851 at Alki Point, near the site of the future Seattle, after traveling over the Oregon Trail from Illinois to Portland, and then north to scout Puget Sound. Arthur Denny, John Low, eight other adults and 12 children set sail from the Duwamish River, landing in West Seattle. Upon looking around, Mary Ann Denny, Arthur’s wife, sits on a wet log holding her baby and cries. Most of the group moves to present-day Pioneer Square the next spring. Charles Terry stays behind and dubs his claim as “New York,” and later Alki, or “by and by” in Chinook language. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

    SWE’s Take:

    This phony Impeachment Hearing using Anonymous Vague Sources is different alright, it flushed due process down the toilet, hey it sounds like KGB or Russian law tactics, I call it kangaroo courts…LOL…Dems, why don’t you get a candidate that can beat Trump instead of wasting our tax dollars on ‘useless” attorney hogwash fees; meanwhile doing nothing for health care costs and our crumbling infrastructures…

    Soccer excitement….watch guys kick a ball around for two hours before they score a point…LOL…Go Seahawks!

  228. 978
    Justme says:

    Plenty of homes for sale in King County, WA

    Check out this graph, which is based on NWMLS data.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1194671138737025026

    Only about 1/3 of King County, WA (Seattle+burbs) homes for sale actually are under contract as of Nov 1. But the real-estate sell-side propagandists want you to believe there is a shortage of product for sale. There is no shortage. And prices peaked in May 2018. #propagandabusting

  229. 979
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 978 – Justme, you’ve changed your whole graph to avoid the question at hand, and then you stopped at September numbers when inventory was 1/3rd higher than it is now. Do you think that this is not sadly transparent? Btw, I don’t think anyone is claiming an actual shortage.

  230. 980
    Justme says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 979

    Dear Reader,

    Don’t listen to this propaganda monger. I haven’t “changed my graph”. It is not even “my graph”. But it is a new graph from direct NWMLS data: no estately, no redfin involved. WMN (W*nker of Mass Nonsense) always tries to create distractions. And if anyone has October numbers and can extend the graph, go for it.

  231. 981
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 980 – I challenged you less than 24 hours ago to update the graph that you proudly used for a year to see if your attack on my numbers was warranted, or even defendable. Did you forget?

    And today you have a new graph. Your distractions are sad, your propaganda obvious. You are quick with the name calling, but seldom answer a question or a challenge. Because at the end of the day, you’ve got nothing. And everyone knows it.

  232. 982
    Justme says:

    Hey WMN, when will you provide a graph that supports your position? Actually, what IS your position these days? You’re so busy with your propaganda nonsense that we haven’t gotten coherent statement out of you for a long time.

  233. 983
    David says:

    By sfrz @ 956:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 933 – Very disheartening to see this rationalization of such a vile post. This person has posted several very disgusting things on this site and it was meant be exactly as they posted – disgusting. I have requested Tim to ban him a couple of times. I’m with Deerhawke. If there is no monitoring of the site, shut it down. This is not acceptable behavior. This site is dead.

    This virtue signaling from the same guy who thinks toddlers should be allowed to get sex changes? Truly, the L_rd is on your side.

  234. 984
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 982:

    Hey WMN, when will you provide a graph that supports your position? Actually, what IS your position these days? You’re so busy with your propaganda nonsense that we haven’t gotten coherent statement out of you for a long time.

    I don’t post graphs. I wanted yours because as I explained in post 968, while you claim those numbers couldn’t be used in a year to year comparison, it would seem you’ve been doing exactly that for many months.

    Also, why does post 978 claim to have November 1 data when your chart ends with September?

  235. 985
    uwp says:

    I have done Justme a favor and recreated a list of Octobers going back 20 years. They are ordered by SFH inventory, highest to lowest.

    I will leave it to the reader to figure out which years had sellers “Rushing to the Exits.”

    2008
    2007
    2010
    2002
    2009
    2001
    2003
    2006
    2011
    2000
    2004
    2005
    2018
    2013
    2014
    2012
    2019
    2015
    2016
    2017

  236. 986
    OA says:

    By Justme @ 963:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 955

    Dear Reader,

    Estately changed its definition of SFH “house” on or around 2018-12-23. Redfin changed its definition of SFH “house” on 2019-10-22, but even after that Estately and Redfin do not match on SFH numbers.

    Therefore you cannot compare these numbers the way WMN does. Just ignore him.

    Can you give us your updated numbers as of this week (or last weekend, whatever is easiest) compared to around this last year.

  237. 987
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 975

    After the go-go years of 2015, 2016, and 2017 where the market got way out over its skis, we started a correction in the 2nd quarter of 2018 that lasted the rest of that calendar.

    The main story in 2019 was about the reset after the correction.

    This is normal. It is the way markets always react. They go too far in one direction and then over-correct in the other direction. And then back. And then forth. When you net out all the movement, you can see certain trends.

    The most important trend of 2019 is the overall loss of inventory. You may recall that early in 2019 people were prognosticating that the rising seasonal inventory trend would keep going up forever. (We could see 6000 or 7000 or maybe even 8000! The sky is the limit!)

    But no. We maxed out in June (when we would normally max out in September) and the line has been flat and down since then. 4194 in August, 4177 in September, 3620 in October. Right now we are at about 3300 and we should follow the normal curve down for the rest of the year to about 2200 at year end. Maybe 2000.

    And nobody will be paying attention, really, until early next year. Because nobody ever pays attention to this market after Halloween. Nobody is noticing that some bad houses are getting turned back into rentals. Nobody is noticing that some places with unrealistic 2017 pricing that have been sitting for a long time are finally getting their price drops– and they are selling through.

    The basic numbers are pretty clear. New listings are at the low end of the normal range. Pendings and closed sales have been at the high end of the range. Stuff that has been sitting is finally going away.

    Oh. and meanwhile, people are continuing to come into the Puget Sound area. Let’s not forget that.

    So at some point in January, some people will take notice of what is going on. Probably by February, more will notice. Certainly by March. At some point, even the new real estate writer for the Seattle Times (not the brightest bulb) will wake up to the fact that we have wandered back into the 2015-2017 range for inventory.

    And when supply is constrained with flat or rising demand, what do you think will happen to prices? Do you really think that people will respond to a shortage of any kind by simply refusing to pay more? OK. some will exit the area. Some will look at substitution strategies and head further north and south (where prices will also rise). Some who wanted to buy will continue renting. Some will try to remodel instead of upgrading until they find that remodeling is a complementary good (and thus also is going up in price.) But ultimately this market is about supply and demand. If supply dries up and demand remains stable, prices will go up. The question is how much.

    I am always pretty conservative in predicting price changes, and am not going to change now. But even in an election year and even with all kinds of local and national political uncertainty, I think we are going to see 4-5% price increases this next spring.

    To think that a substantial change in inventory is not going to have a price effect is not economically realistic.

  238. 988
    Beano says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987 – Agree. Market is 18 months into a pause/re-adjustment. Price grown returns in 2020. Also the housing market added a bunch of rental inventory in 2018/2019. This did offer renters good deals, temporarily. That inventory will be digested soon.

  239. 989
    Blake says:

    RE: Beano @ 988
    OMG… Two substantive comments in a row!! Way to go Beano and Deerhawke! I was about to throw in the towel :-)

  240. 990
    OA says:

    By Blake @ 989:

    RE: Beano @ 988
    OMG… Two substantive comments in a row!! Way to go Beano and Deerhawke! I was about to throw in the towel :-)

    lol love it!

  241. 991
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987RE: Beano @ 988
    I agree. Completely.

  242. 992
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 985 – You should also include the closed sales ranking (and real prices) to give a more complete picture.

  243. 993
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987 – What a long list of justifications for high prices. Let me boil it down to just one factor for you – interest rates.

    Now that interest rates are heading towards 4% for 30yr mortgages, all justifications you gave are going to crumble shortly… SAD!

  244. 994
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987

    And that was the standard bi-weekly missive by Deerhawke. As usual, a putrid mixture of historical revisionism, falsehoods, outright lies and soothing sweet nothings whispered in the ear of his next homebuying victim. Bon Appetit!

  245. 995
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 992:

    RE: uwp @ 985 – You should also include the closed sales ranking (and real prices) to give a more complete picture.

    You are welcome to do this. I don’t have a spreadsheet with all the numbers, I’ve just been looking at Tim’s charts. The sales numbers are a lot more clumped and difficult to split out from year to year without going back to each individual post over the years.

    I don’t present that ranking as any sort of endorsement to buy at the bottom of the list, or sell at the top. From a quick glance there isn’t much of a trend. 2008/2007 were obviously bad times to buy, but 2010/2002 were pretty good (close to the bottom price-wise and tons of inventory!). While 2017 was not an awesome time to buy ( at least compared to the years just above it).

    I’m in the same camp as Deerhawke. Whatever trend happened with inventory in the 2nd half of 2018 has pretty clearly ended. Something might get it going again; recession, interest rates, election uncertainty (no one can predict the future), but as of now, it seems to be a pretty normal market. I continue to believe that if you can afford it, and plan to stay for 7+ years, buying isn’t a bad idea.

  246. 996
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 993:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987 – What a long list of justifications for high prices. Let me boil it down to just one factor for you – interest rates.

    Now that interest rates are heading towards 4% for 30yr mortgages, all justifications you gave are going to crumble shortly… SAD!

    Isn’t that the interest rate scenario from very late 2016 going into 2017? I thought prices did pretty good in 2017.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_mortgage_rate

  247. 997
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 994:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 987

    And that was the standard bi-weekly missive by Deerhawke. As usual, a putrid mixture of historical revisionism, falsehoods, outright lies and soothing sweet nothings whispered in the ear of his next homebuying victim. Bon Appetit!

    In fairness, maybe you could point out a specific falsehood or an outright lie so that Deerhawke would have an opportunity to address them. Perhaps you could ask a question about something he said that doesn’t appear consistent with other things he’s said. Then you could see if he answers, or justruns away. I always think that people who persistently refuse to answer a simple question have already given you an answer, if you know what I mean.

  248. 998
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Justme @ 994

    The difference between Justme and deerhawke is we know deerhawke is a builder with skin in the game. What is your position, other than trying to knock deerhawkes position? would you like to buy a house? Or are you like Batman, trying to right the wrongs you see here in Gotham North West? I enjoy seeing different perspectives, including yours, but I’m genuinely curious what your interest in Realestate is?

  249. 999
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 988
    Totally agree.

  250. 1000
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 996 – Unless you are suggesting that rates don’t matter in this market, i.e. prices will continue the upward climb, you are not saying much. My take is at 4%, 30yr mortgage ratess will cause prices to stall and to resume the decline as rates move into mid- and high 4%.

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