NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,046 comments:

  1. 1251
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell D Loggia @ 1225
    Dang Ardell! I’m sure Eastsider a little whimp sitting on his computer trying to combat people that actually have experience. He doesn’t know he’s messing with an experienced east coast brawler. Pull him out of the gated community and drag him to the mean streets of Rainier. I’ll finish him off from there.

  2. 1252
    Blurtman says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1227:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1224

    When the market has no clear direction, and it hasn’t for quite some time now, ……

    Anthropomorphic and conceptually vague. See me after class.

  3. 1253
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 1232

    He’s doing the best he can with what he has to work with. If he hadn’t said I was biased and untrustworthy because I’m an agent…

    What I don’t understand is why, after I gave him the actual number of only 64 houses in the whole County that fit his narrative, he still wants to pretend there’s a scary glut of new houses for sale at $1.8M+ on the Eastside.

    I clearly have no bias that favors New Construction.

  4. 1254
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1234:

    RE: Erik @ 1232

    He’s doing the best he can with what he has to work with. If he hadn’t said I was biased and untrustworthy because I’m an agent…

    What I don’t understand is why, after I gave him the actual number of only 64 houses in the whole County that fit his narrative, he still wants to pretend there’s a scary glut of new houses for sale at $1.8M+ on the Eastside.

    I clearly have no bias that favors New Construction.

    Redfin shows a total of 103 new construction listings over $1.75m in KC. (That 103 is a floor btw.) Builders have been listing and selling most homes (near 100% in a hot market) before ‘completion’. By the time final occupancy permit is issued and the house is still without a buyer, the listing is stale! To claim that there is only 1 new construction inventory over $1.8m in North Rose Hill and 64 in all of KC is dishonest. Okay, tell me what percentage of the 67 current pendings are complete? none? Oops they will never show up in your ‘inventory’ data and we are supposed to believe your inventory data. Haha.

  5. 1255
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1232 – This is your Nth personal attack post. Stop it!

  6. 1256

    Trust Me, I Picked Only the RE Relevant Seattle Times Brief Items to Condense Per Dave’s Direction, Grab Your Cup of Yuban and read:

    “…Americans are dying young at alarming rates, a reversal after decades of living longer and longer. A new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association details the reasons behind this shift, which sets the United States apart from every other affluent country. One key factor: an epidemic of “deaths of despair.”…”

    SWE Take: I told you this 17 years ago [2002 Census Data], so Seattle Homes owned by “dead” Baby Boomers could hog all the Seattle listings soon at a theater near you?

    “…Just when it couldn’t get any worse for Republicans in Washington state, along comes their old friend Tim Eyman. If he goes through with a bid for governor, Eyman’s campaign is set to run the GOP even farther into the ground, columnist Danny Westneat writes….”

    SWE Take: This whole story is “mealy mouthed attorney politician partisan hogwash” to make you hate your vote for $35 Tabs….LOL…use the tab money “savings” to fix the furnace instead…I’m using mine for Christmas gifts…

    “…Boeing 777X’s fuselage split dramatically during a stress test in September. A photo obtained by The Seattle Times shows the damage was more alarming than previously disclosed after an explosive depressurization tore through the fuselage. Meanwhile, the FAA says it will conduct the final approval of factory-fresh 737 MAX jets rather than allowing Boeing workers to do routine sign-offs….”

    SWE’s take: Boeing hardly sells any 777s, its commercial sales are almost all like 737 MAX 8s…OK, the FAA is gonna certify the MAX 8 plane, milestone to completion? TBD?

    Happy Thanksgiving Bubble heads, I’m off to Safeway to pick up my $59..99 12 lb turkey dinner boxes to deliver to the special needs adult meals in Kent. I cook it today ;-)

  7. 1257

    RE: Erik @ 1232
    The Stressful Holidays

    Bring out the best in us [show mean baby picture holding plastic ax]….maybe a turkey drum stick instead? What’s your prediction on the “stealth MSM News item”, the “rocket surged Dodge Charger”” 28000 DOW affect” on “propping up” Seattle home prices lately?

  8. 1258
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1236
    Ardell is from the mean streets of Philly. I don’t mess with her. I call her if I’m in a difficult situation and someone is treating me unfairly and I need help. She swoops in and kicks butt and fixes the situation. That’s part of why I want her on my side. She’s tough and she can fix just about any difficult situation. She’s a strong person, stronger than me and I think I’m pretty strong.

    I’m watching you insult her and talk down to her. I’m anticipating the result is going to be unfavorable for you in the end.

  9. 1259
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1238
    I think we are gonna have one more bump in Seattle housing prices and then prices will go down 2024 and reach bottom 2026. Trump will do what it takes to stay out of recession before his 2nd term is over.

    Americans are loving the narrative Trump has created. When he leaves, those stories will leave too and the market will tumble.

    That is just a guess that happens to fit nicely with my 18 year land peak price theory. 2 data points that coincide.

  10. 1260
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1236
    You called me a speculator. You watch your mouth! I’m a “paper chaser” or a “chip stacker.” I had to speculate in the beginning because every time, I bet all I had. Now I have a nice little growing negative cash flow portfolio.

  11. 1261
    Brianna says:

    RE: Erik @ 1240

    Your outlook is at odds with many economists who seem to expect a recession in 2020, or 2021. (here’s just one from today’s news: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-top-jp-morgan-banker-says-ceos-tell-him-they-are-worried-about-2020-despite-stocks-record-highs/ar-BBXpmmA?ocid=ARWLCHR)

    I do understand the rationale that a very low inventory, with robust demand will lead to higher prices – especially as the economy continues to do well. But, with a recession looming, probably sooner than you seem to think, I have a hard time having a positive outlook for real estate for the next few years. But alas… no one has a crystal ball.

  12. 1262
    Beano says:

    RE: Brianna @ 1242 – Recession has been predicted 3 years in a row, maybe 4.

    Business cycle didn’t go anywhere. But financial engineering has taken the lead. One of the impacts of increased financial engineering is increased asset prices.

  13. 1263

    RE: Beano @ 1243

    Agree. I’ve been saying “anytime now” since the end of 2016 and most likely during the election cycle. Due to the Trump-mania…”election cycle” started early. :) I find myself wondering if he wins again if things will die down or get worse.

  14. 1264
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1235

    Again…you just refuse to “get it”. We are not talking about having an occupancy permit. We are talking about not built yet as in “Presale” and “Under Construction”. To get an Occupancy Permit the house has to BE built.

    I’m done with stats for now…too heavy into cooking to go over that again. Maybe in a few days. I already broke out the numbers out for you. But I’ll check them again after the holiday.

  15. 1265
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 1242
    I believe the democratic national committee sets the news agenda for msnbc and many other liberal stations. They are trying to trick consumers into believing a recession is imminent because they want trump out in 2020. If they can trick consumers into believing that, spending will pull back, a recession will happen. They know this and they are working this hard.

    Trump is fighting to keep us out of recession and the metrics support trump with no recession. We will see who wins, and I’m betting on trump. Trump will do whatever it takes to keep us out of recession for the 2020 election. Democrats have already lost 2 impeachment hoax’s and their credibility ship is sinking fast. That is going to count against them when they try to win the 2020 election because I’m sure they will come out with another hoax and Americans will not take them seriously anymore as they lied twice already and got caught.

    I just ignore the news and read things like GDP, job growth, and interest rates. All news is corrupt these days including Fox. If the market is up in 2022, I’m bailing as we will have had too long of good times. It would be nice to condense down to a few rentals with no mortgage by the time the real recession hits. Then I can stack more chips during the recession and live with a lower stress level for a while.

    That is what I’m doing because to me, that seems reasonable. You make your own best guess, but feel free to use my method.

  16. 1266
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1244
    Trump knows how to win and he will keep the economy strong until he gets re elected. After that, I have no promises.

  17. 1267
    Beano says:

    All incumbent politicians seek to rig the markets and banish the business cycle. Globally we are off the fails of history into uncharted waters, re: QE. We’ve been in this space for over a decade now.

    Goes without saying, so I’ll say it, it’s impossible to predict future – but it’s fair to bet on asset prices being up longer term.

    IMO, the most undervalued RE assets in the PNW are rural coastal areas. When you live in the Northeast/New England for 10 years, you learn quick that even rural coastal areas are expensive and no longer affordable as 2nd homes, retirement homes (as of 1995).

    The PNW was virtually completely unpopulated until about the 90s. I don’t think any of this “new” money has had the time yet to shop for 2nd homes and or retiree properties. They will soon. From Central Oregon Coast to Canada border – buy.

  18. 1268
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1233

    The class is over. That was the tail end of a very long conversation. Plus when I am talking to SWE, it’s not meant for all. It’s usually a more friendly chat. Kind of like talking to Norm at Cheers vs talking to Cliff. :)

  19. 1269
    Eastsider says:

    Peak Seattle? (I know the article is about San Francisco…)

    Schwab Leaves San Francisco for Texas
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/schwab-leaves-san-francisco-for-texas-11574900348
    Discount brokerage firm Charles Schwab this week announced a $26 billion merger with TD Ameritrade that it says will make it more competitive amid a fierce financial industry price war. That may be one reason Schwab is also relocating its corporate headquarters from San Francisco to lower-cost-and-low-tax Texas.

  20. 1270
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Erik @ 1246
    erik says: “i’m not a (D) or (R); i’m independent”.
    then goes on to post this drivel.

    okay. yeah. nothing to see with current impeachment hearings. clearly, all those intelligent, articulate witnesses that have implicated trump and his internal network are all part of the deep state, despite some being appointed directly by trump. oh, and cohen, manafort, flynn, gates, papadopoulus, and stone are just part of a conspiracy theory by dems to entrap witnesses. uh huh. libs manipulating the story. nothing to see here. just a hoax.

    how people believe in wild ass conspiracy theories pushed by fox and brietbart and then passed on by trump and later completely disproven is beyond me. but, clearly mr. erik is part of the 40% of loyalists that will defend the person, despite the evidence overwhelmingly being against that person.

    so, the question is: is erik a racist, white supremacist, scared white male, evangelical, or some other sort of compromised person that so delusional, it’s sad? erik = david = software engineer.

    my vote is racist. polls are open.

  21. 1271
    OA says:

    By kenmorem @ 1251:

    RE: Erik @ 1246
    erik says: “i’m not a (D) or (R); i’m independent”.
    then goes on to post this drivel.

    okay. yeah. nothing to see with current impeachment hearings. clearly, all those intelligent, articulate witnesses that have implicated trump and his internal network are all part of the deep state, despite some being appointed directly by trump. oh, and cohen, manafort, flynn, gates, papadopoulus, and stone are just part of a conspiracy theory by dems to entrap witnesses. uh huh. libs manipulating the story. nothing to see here. just a hoax.

    how people believe in wild ass conspiracy theories pushed by fox and brietbart and then passed on by trump and later completely disproven is beyond me. but, clearly mr. erik is part of the 40% of loyalists that will defend the person, despite the evidence overwhelmingly being against that person.

    so, the question is: is erik a racist, white supremacist, scared white male, evangelical, or some other sort of compromised person that so delusional, it’s sad? erik = david = software engineer.

    my vote is racist. polls are open.

    Can he be none of those options you listed, and instead just be someone with a different political view than you?

    An evangelical Christian is a compromised person that’s delusional? Cmon man…..stick to respectfully commenting on real estate and not hiding behind your computer making these foolish comments like a coward. We both know you would never say something like this in person because you’re smarter than that.

  22. 1272
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1252
    I skimmed kenmoron’s comment because I don’t need that kind of negativity in my life. I saw a lot of anger projecting and thought, “I just don’t need this yucky person in my life right now.”

    Last peak was 2006.
    Most common peak to peak for real estate prices is 18 years.

    2006+18=2024. Now knock it down 2 years to be conservative. Sell 2022. I was just trying to fill in the narrative behind the numbers of my guess of when I think the market will be at a top. It would be nice to be able to sell something and pay off other units with the proceeds by 2022. Then when the recession hits, you’d be raking in dough and live a lower stress life.

  23. 1273
  24. 1274
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1251

    I’m a progressive liberal democrat, and I find your post to be just as harmful and propagandist as anything on Fox News. It’s thanksgiving, break bread with people you disagree with. They’re all just people. Have some fun. Be thankful. I need to work on some of this myself. Happy holidays everyone!

  25. 1275

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    Gulp Your Yuban for a Condensed Read:

    No RE information in Seattle Times today, Just Thanksgiving Stuff:

    “… Big strides for a little guy: A family’s reason to be thankful
    Saul Franco Rodriguez is a spunky 3-year-old who smiles constantly — but he doesn’t speak. When his Bellevue family turned to a nonprofit called Kindering, they found a haven where Spanish-speaking staff understood and stepped in to help. Saul’s story of transformation, from an extremely delayed child to one who’s met many developmental milestones, drives home the value of readers’ generosity to The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy. Here’s how you can help. (Photo: Bettina Hansen / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Seattle has 1000s of special needs, mentally retarded and disabled folks, many need friends and special Thanksgiving Dinners, most of the ones I bump elbows with are not restricted to a Spanish speaking volunteer, Hades, these folks just need love and Martian language works too…I finished the 12 lb turkey and all the fixings yesterday, today I deliver it to an adult home with lonely folks that are usually forgotten on Thanksgiving and have no mom and dad [or other relatives in Seattle] there for them either. They love my red Dodge Charger and to them its just like Santa’s red sleigh arrived. I nick named them bunk buddies and I am so impressed at their small developments, because to them they’re huge developments. Enjoy the love from your family today!

  26. 1276
    S-Crow says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1256:

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    ….I finished the 12 lb turkey and all the fixings yesterday, today I deliver it to an adult home with lonely folks that are usually forgotten on Thanksgiving and have no mom and dad [or other relatives in Seattle] there for them either. They love my red Dodge Charger and to them its just like Santa’s red sleigh arrived. I nick named them bunk buddies and I am so impressed at their small developments, because to them they’re huge developments. Enjoy the love from your family today!

    You are a good man.

  27. 1277
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1257

    Happy Thanksgiving SWE!!!

  28. 1278
    Beano says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1250 – There is no question Texas is ahead of Seattle and Washington in pecking order. Texas has a better mix of ideas and diversity.

    Seattle and Washington’s biggest risk to growth are prudes. Both left wing prudes and right wing prudes.

    I was shocked to find a city that’s much less entrepreneurial and problem solving centric and more ideological than expected.

    Too many here are delusional that Seattle being relevant is inevitable. It takes hard work, right leaders, strong culture and luck. It was only 30 years ago Seattle was viewed as a backwoods cow town by the country.

    I don’t think it’s on the same track it was on 10 years ago.

  29. 1279
    OA says:

    Happy Thanksgiving All!

  30. 1280
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Beano @ 1259

    I’ve lived in 5 States. Not Texas. You couldn’t pay me to live in Texas. Almost every whacko I’ve ever met was from Texas or Arizona.

  31. 1281
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1211

    Thanks so much for the information Ardell. Greatly appreciated.

    It looks like I have been too conservative, overestimating the difference between the Redfin inventory figures shown on this feed and the current NWMLS inventory figures. Instead of a differential of 300, it is more like 140.

    More importantly what that means is that I have been overestimating the level of KC inventory by about 160. Put simply, inventory is down a good deal more YOY than I expected. This underlines the fact that inventory has really dropped dramatically since it peaked in May/June.

    This is not the normal seasonal drop that we see every year at this time. It is a secular change. I think the market will clear out by the end of the year. And that will leave the cupboard pretty bare as we head into 2020. Anything that happen next year will start from a lower base.

    Unless there is some substantial change in the fundamentals, it is going to be a very interesting spring market.

    Happy Thanksgiving all!

  32. 1282
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1262

    You are very welcome! I have three December closings, which may be a first for me in 30 years. So I pulled 3 out of inventory late in the year. :)

    Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!

  33. 1283
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 1257
    I met him. He is a good guy.

  34. 1284
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1259
    I’ve lived here a longtime. We use to have Microsoft and that was it. Now we have a bunch of other software companies. To me, it seems like it’s more likely one of those computer nerds will come up with an idea because there are more educated nerds in the area. Higher supply of possible Jeff Bezos types yields a more likely chance the next Amazon will pop up in the Seattle are.

  35. 1285
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1262
    I’m waiting for condo prices to go up, but it looks like with all the condo inventory coming up, condo prices won’t go up much before the next recession.

  36. 1286
    uwp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1263:

    I have three December closings, which may be a first for me in 30 years. So I pulled 3 out of inventory late in the year. :)

    Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!

    Going to join you with a December close (hopefully)!
    We weren’t really looking that seriously but something came up in the exact location we were dreaming of and the stars aligned so we snuck in an offer the day before Thanksgiving.

    Now we just have to decide when (or if) to sell our current place. Doesn’t seem like a great time to sell, but there is virtually no inventory of SFH under 750k in our area (Greenwood). Wouldn’t be a bad thing to be the best/only thing for sale in the price range…

  37. 1287
    Justme says:

    RE: uwp @ 1267

    >> Doesn’t seem like a great time to sell, but

    What happened to the “I’m trying to help millennials get a house” aspiration? Was it all just a lie you told us (and yourself?) while doing your bubble-mongering propaganda? How much of a discount are you going to give the millennials when you sell your old house?

  38. 1288
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1267

    Congratulations! Don’t let Justme rain on your party. Chance favors a prepared mind like yours.

    If you are considering selling, are you in a position to wait for spring?

  39. 1289

    Its 25 degrees in Kent Right Now….Warm Up with a Hot Mug of Yuban and Read “Dave’s” Condensed Style of the Seattle Times Brief, RE Articles News Extracted By SWE:

    “… A day that ‘hurt your heart’: 10 years ago, 4 Lakewood police officers were shot down
    Then-Gov. Christine Gregoire leaves the podium after her eulogy for four slain officers in 2009. Ten years ago today, the killings in a Pierce County coffee shop set off a massive manhunt that ended in shooter Maurice Clemmons’ death. His act left nine children without a parent, a state and community shaken, and police officers everywhere looking over their shoulders. The lives of Clemmons’ family members changed that day, too. Still traumatized, they say they want the focus to be on the lives lost — and the future. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: Seattle Violence Was Here 10 Years Ago, Don’t Blame it on All on Trump, blame it on OVERPOPULATION in Seattle. And the Beat Goes On in Thanksgiving 2019.

    “…Pierce County deputies fatally shot a man in Eatonville overnight. A stretch of Mountain Highway East is closed while police investigate…”

    “…Package theft is more common in the Seattle-Tacoma area than in most other metro areas, according to a new analysis. Here’s how to foil porch pirates without resorting to the possibly illegal “boom box” approach one Tacoma man took a few years ago…”

    SWE’s take: Since I’m home most of the time “package theft” has been eliminated, but when I worked 4 Years Ago, it happened to me regularly, the shipping insurance paid for it all BTW. They steal from car if its not hidden and locked in the trunk too, they smash your windows to get it from your shiny new cross overs with no sedan trunks…my sedan has a locking trunk.

    “…Bundle up, because a cold weekend awaits in the Puget Sound area. We might even see a bit of snow, the National Weather Service says…”

    SWE’s take: I already restocked my pantry and refrigerator with supplies, I don’t need to drive on icy streets for a week now. Telework if you can…

    The Deflated Huskies Play the Cougars at 1PM Today, GO HUSKIES!!!

    “… For decades, court challenges and bureaucratic requirements have blocked the Makah tribe’s right to resume traditional canoe-based whale hunting, a right guaranteed in the 1855 Treaty of Neah Bay. The Makahs’ right to go whale hunting must be restored, the Seattle Times editorial board writes. ..”

    SWE’s Take: That is if Seattle’s OVERPOPULATION plans don’t kill them all anyway with coastal waters sewage rinse, weed eater and even prescription drug wastes too….

  40. 1290
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1269:

    RE: uwp @ 1267

    Congratulations! Don’t let Justme rain on your party. Chance favors a prepared mind like yours.

    If you are considering selling, are you in a position to wait for spring?

    Thanks Deerhawke!

    Oh, I don’t mind Justme. I thought he would be happy I was putting my money where my “bubble-mongering” mouth is! :)

    We are in a position to wait until spring (and we’ve discussed renting as well). But I would have to feel more confident the waiting was worth it. Right now we wouldn’t move until January anyway. So we’ll have a chance to see how things are starting to shape up.

    And of course, we still have the inspection and all that before this becomes really real.

  41. 1291
    OA says:

    By Justme @ 1268:

    RE: uwp @ 1267

    >> Doesn’t seem like a great time to sell, but

    What happened to the “I’m trying to help millennials get a house” aspiration? Was it all just a lie you told us (and yourself?) while doing your bubble-mongering propaganda? How much of a discount are you going to give the millennials when you sell your old house?

    Lol you crack me up

  42. 1292
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1271

    January is a little early, but people are definitely looking as soon as the weather turns. You might put in the extra time to really make sure your house is in top condition and the landscaping is toned up. The end of February is always my favorite time to list— little inventory but resurgent demand.

    Renting is definitely harder than it was just a few years ago. Our Seattle City Council seems to want to drive people away from renting. But in terms of building long term wealth, owning in a neighborhood with a short commute to downtown is hard to beat.

    Best of luck.

  43. 1293

    RE: uwp @ 1267

    I like Feb 1ish vs now, but if it snows then maybe same difference. Best would be to move into the new place, and that will likely be between Christmas and New Year’s as to the closing. Empty the house, stage it, photos…that would bring you at least to my “early” date of Jan 15. Enough time for people who left town to be back. This more important on The Eastside where it is not uncommon for people to leave for a full month for Christmas to go to a foreign Country where their extended family is. Often the wife and children go for a month or even two and the husband joins them for a couple of weeks.

    People get “wait until Spring” wrong most of the time. I know Deerhawke said it, but he mostly is selling a new house. Resale homes with a weakness, and weakness is THE issue of the market for the last 18 months, tend to do better earlier and between Jan 15 and March 15. Though last year we had a record snow in March…so last year just stayed odd all the way through. Well I’m saying last year meaning 2019, which is another sign that this year is over as to real estate except for closings. :)

    If your weakness is a bad roof and ugly grass, snow can actually be helpful. I’ve done a few of those over the years. If you have the perfect house, in the best schools then Spring is awesome. But most people don’t have that product. Resale homes with weakness, and most have something, usually do better after Jan 15 (with today as a possible start date) and before high season when they have too much competition.

    Be empty by Jan 5ish then perfect your product for photos with work and staging and that should put you right into the sell zone.

    P.S. The MLS just upped their # of photos to 40 from 25. I think effective Jan 1 but even if an earlier effective date, should be 40 photos by the time you go on market. Just a heads up.

    Remember what most seller’s forget…your area is NOT “Greenwood”. Greenwood is not a destination neighborhood. Your area is the heart of what we call “705,710”. Greenlake, Greenwood, Phinney, Ballard, Fremont…oh and the ever popular Wallingford. :) Not to mention Queen Anne and some of the old school favorites, but Ballard maybe your strongest competition. Think like a buyer when you are a seller, no one does so don’t worry if you can’t. If you were a buyer looking for a house in the $700k give or take market, where would you look? Answer….not just Greenwood.

    One of my listings closing while I’m flying home next week is in that rough parameter group. More lookers than takers. 100 showings doesn’t mean most of those people are ready. Many are gearing up for Spring or pre-Spring and just like you, may unexpectedly pull the trigger…but you want a better strategy than accidental buyer pool. Shoot for Jan 15 to Feb 1 and if you prep properly and don’t have a major weakness, that should work.

    Take the time to get GREAT photos…and that will take you into mid Jan at least anyway. My other listing closing in December (3rd closing is that seller as a buyer) stayed living in the house vs leaving, but we still pretty much emptied it and I staged it. I left him his mattress and box spring and his TV. :) I bought him a new frame for his mattress and box spring which I’m letting him keep and everything else was staged like an empty house. Except closets and cupboards which were partly staged with his things since he did need some clothes to wear. LOL!

  44. 1294

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1273

    I typed mine before your recent comment. Giggling because yes, “end of Feb” your favorite time and previously you said “Spring”. To someone IN the industry, end of Feb IS Spring. But that is still Winter to most people. LOL!

    For resale vs your new construction, Feb 1 is better because if your 30 day test price is off you are “right” by end of Feb. New Construction and any “perfect” product doesn’t need the lead time.

    I did a quick check of went pending in the last 4 days in 705 and 710 and resale needs a longer fuse. My Carnation only took 2 weeks but my Phinney started way too late and…hmmm bad juju to say more than that before Tuesday. :) Good and Bad “juju” and important real estate tool as well. Haha!

  45. 1295

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1273

    I typed mine before your recent comment. Giggling because yes, “end of Feb” your favorite time and previously you said “Spring”. To someone IN the industry, end of Feb IS Spring. But that is still Winter to most people. LOL!

    For resale vs your new construction, Feb 1 is better because if your 30 day test price is off you are “right” by end of Feb. New Construction and any “perfect” product doesn’t need the lead time.

    I did a quick check of went pending in the last 4 days in 705 and 710 and resale needs a longer fuse. My Carnation only took 2 weeks but my Phinney started way too late and…hmmm bad juju to say more than that before Tuesday. :) Good and Bad “juju” an important real estate tool as well. Haha!

    Both of mine needed a small price change because when you aren’t likely to get multiple offers in 4 days, you need to err slightly on the side of high vs low as to asking price.

  46. 1296
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1276

    There used to be a consensus that the very best time to put something on the market was the weekend before or after Valentine’s Day. I tried that twice and got a wind storm and a snow storm. So now I like to be just a little further into what might be considered the beginning of spring market.

    The more important thing to remember is that whatever date you hope to be on the market, you need to be completely ready two weeks before. This allows time for photography, printing of promotional materials, inevitable scheduling issues, dealing with that sudden last minute repair, etc.

  47. 1297
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1277

    Haha. Not my first rodeo. LOL!

  48. 1298
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1278

    No, not your first rodeo by a long shot. Ha ha. That post really was for UWP.

  49. 1299
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1254
    Ha! Terrible.

  50. 1300
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: uwp @ 1271 – I am trying to help Justme get a house. If you will sell your old house to him, I will pledge $1 which may be used as a discount.

  51. 1301

    RE: kenmorem @ 1251
    Hey, IMO I love Your Comment

    Even your friends on CNN and CNBC agree with me, the impeachment news has “back-fired”….if you trust the recent polls….Trump will win in 2020 and just mention the word “impeachment” and his campaign war chest swells 100s of millions from Trump supporters…almost all Americans simply hate impeachment and I didn’t support it in 1998 for Bill Clinton and his cigar whores at the WH either…LOL

    Ya need a candidate that can beat Trump. Develop an agenda for worker shortages not gluts [reduce OVERPOPULATION], and force employers to give us real health insurance [like for like a couple hundred a month for Blue Cross or Group Health]….its called supply and demand of employees…neither political party uses this as as a platform, I would. We just love tiny pay and insanely high health care costs??? LOL…add in more taxes and its the perfect storm to elect Trump in 2020 IMO.

  52. 1302

    Time to Settle Back With Your Yuban and Read:

    The Washington Post this time, Seattle Times is late with their Brief:

    https://nypost.com/2019/11/29/macys-a-ghost-town-on-black-friday-thanks-to-web-shoppers/

    SWE’s take:

    I saw the same scenario too Thanksgiving Eve….empty stores with no late evening Thanksgiving Black Friday type Sales and no traffic on the local roads either…I think our homes are already full of junk , and we don’t need to pack more in? LOL

  53. 1303
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1281

    I’ll throw in doing it for free on both sides, but my preference would be Richard or Joe. :)

  54. 1304
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1284 – Wow; that is a lot!!! I hope they will write a haiku in your honor.

  55. 1305
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1282 – The best thing about this phony impeachment process (of which I have watched exactly ZERO minutes) is that the Demwits have lowered the bar for impeaching future Dem politicians.

    I would like to see research, smear and impeachment campaigns against numerous Democrat-appointed Federal Judges.

  56. 1306
    Blurtman says:

    By Erik @ 1280:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1254
    Ha! Terrible.

    1976. People had a sense of humor back then.

  57. 1307

    RE: David @ 1286
    NYTs Offered a Recent Weird Spin to Prosecutor Durham’s Investigation Alleging Trump Made Up the Documented FBI Wire Taps at His Trump Tower in 2016

    They assume Americans are stupid and ignorant?

  58. 1308

    RE: Blurtman @ 1287
    In 1976 America Reached Its Peak IMO

    Manufacturing
    Robotics
    Computers
    Space Travel
    Average IQs
    Life Span

    Since then we just regurgitate old inventions….even Michael Crichton’s Hollywood is dead now, no more Jurassic Park Movies , etc. ,he died in 2008 [young too, 65]….where’s the quality authors screen writers to replace him now, Stephen King is like 80 and Dean Koontz is over 80 too….look forward to a grim literature pickings from today’s regurgitated Hollywood…as the skills and experience die out. The new Star Wars regurgitation is horribly done now with cheap international actors with no skills/experience. Its similar to Seattle’s wage collapse and manufacturing engineering almost gone…

  59. 1309

    Homelessness Cures Needed for Seattle RE Boost Too?

    Hey raise my car tabs from $35, but use the money for homelessness and I won’t complain. They mention road construction now and I assume its some 5 year project to repave a few miles of road, milk it for all its worth IOWs. Or give me the car tab money, I can light a match to it myself…LOL

  60. 1310
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 1239

    I was thinking of this comment and laughing while watching The Irishman. Those are my “mean streets”. :)

  61. 1311
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1289 – The NY Times is the CNN of newspapers. I deleted CNN years ago.

  62. 1312
    TJ98370 says:

    “60 Minutes” featured homelessness in west coast cities on their CBS weekly program last nite (Dec 1 2019). They interviewed several Seattle people including the mayor. I found it interesting. It’s worth a watch in my opinion, but probably offers no surprises to people who visit this blog. The feature is posted on the internet.

  63. 1313

    Time to Digest RE News That Affects the Buyers and Sellers Too, My Yuban Mug is Full, I Got 10 Hours Sleep and am Ready to Roar Condensed Seattle Brief:

    “…’We cried for happy news’
    Patricia St. Marks is overcome with joy as she shows off her new home at Eagle Village, a series of modular trailers in Sodo. It’s Seattle’s first housing project designed to help homeless Native American adults. Other Native-led organizations are watching Seattle’s unique approach. See how it works. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: One lucky Homeless Family [at least it was a legal citizen] gets help….so how many left to go? 100,000 [the number is a big TBD folks]? Barely surviving in the ice cold? Its time to start working down the list and get the job 100% complete or sit on your hands and be greedy and lazy? BTW, how do they pay the property taxes and utilities? The tooth fairy?

    “..The House impeachment report on President Donald Trump will be unveiled today to key lawmakers before it heads to the House Judiciary Committee, which is revving up to draft articles of impeachment. (Trump was invited to Wednesday’s opening hearing, but his lawyer gave a big “no thanks.”) Although acquittal would be likely in the Senate, five wild cards may bring surprises along the way. Here’s a fact check on the overheated rhetoric as the inquiry moves into a new phase…”

    SWE’s take: Get to work you lazy impeachment bums, we have trade deals to complete and taxes to lower, ya got better things to do than waste your time doing another Mueller Witch Hunt…..you consider possibly illegally crushing the current success of our American President with illegal hearsay evidence much more important? Trump is simultaneously working hard at the EU this week hearings to bring billions back to America. Why isn’t that in the Seattle Times? I sense a Fascist streak in the MSM, and you’re fooling no one…

    “…It’s called “crimmigration,” the shift toward criminalizing immigration. U.S. immigration policy has always been underpinned by racism and xenophobia, but the current mass detention system is like nothing we have seen before. Columnist Naomi Ishisaka asks whose interests it serves to detain hundreds of thousands of people…”

    SWE’s Take: Since when did rule of law mean a toilet bowl with brown stuff in it? Since you open border psychos thought it up to use Fascist controls on the electoral college majority voters? LOL

    Some good news too, the “college degreed Meteorologist” weatherman was wrong again on the weekend report, a warm front moved in Sunday and it didn’t snow. Enjoy the rain instead.

  64. 1314
    whatsmyname says:

    **** Post weekend Update****
    Saturday ended the month with an apparent KC inventory of 2529 per the link. It will be interesting to see the difference vs the official MLS numbers when they come out. Meanwhile, the number continues to drift downward to 2454 as of this moment. Pretty typical seasonal movement, if at the lower end of the historical inventory spectrum. No doubt some bubble monger is clamoring to say, “Hey, that’s less than half of 5,000”.

  65. 1315
    uwp says:

    By whatsmyname @ 1294:

    **** Post weekend Update****
    Saturday ended the month with an apparent KC inventory of 2529 per the link. It will be interesting to see the difference vs the official MLS numbers when they come out. Meanwhile, the number continues to drift downward to 2454 as of this moment. Pretty typical seasonal movement, if at the lower end of the historical inventory spectrum. No doubt some bubble monger is clamoring to say, “Hey, that’s less than half of 5,000”.

    From running quick numbers over the past 10 years, inventory seems to drop by 500-800 in December, so it’s likely we are under 2k to start the year, then I suppose we wait to see if we get a crunch a la 2016/2017 or if we get a repeat of early 2019 and the houses flow on to the market like the salmon of capistrano.

  66. 1316

    The Cyber Monday Sales are Out, Chinese Junk is Way Down in Price Since Trump’s Tarriffs

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/walmart-black-friday-2019-160829052.html

    I just bought my Christmas present from laptop from Walmart too, going to my daughter in Kansas [essentially delivery and sales tax free]….$200 VISA Gift Cards delivered to her FedEx by Dec 10th for $206.88….beat that price Bubbleheads and unlike bogus gift cards, ya can use it at any any store ya want….LOL…be careful to get logged into Walmart with password account and CCV credit card information or a good security bank credit card [like Citi, its better than lifelock BTW] will stop this order.

  67. 1317
    whatsmyname says:

    By uwp @ 1295:

    From running quick numbers over the past 10 years, inventory seems to drop by 500-800 in December, so it’s likely we are under 2k to start the year, then I suppose we wait to see if we get a crunch a la 2016/2017 or if we get a repeat of early 2019 and the houses flow on to the market like the salmon of capistrano.

    I think you are pretty much on it there. Even with a lot of new listings; absent something specific, scary and new, I think there is demand enough to keep inventory under the 2019 curve for half the year anyway. I have not heard anything from Justme about buying your house with a discount. He is the master of waiting it out, though. So I will capitulate now, and raise my pledge 100% to $2.

  68. 1318
    Beano says:

    It’s clear the 400-600k KC segment never dipped. Most of the KC declines vYAG occurred in the condo and SFH (+$1.2M) segments.

    A curve ball remains changes in Seattle zoning. And the new, more leftist city government.

  69. 1319
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1291
    We are tough in relation to a computer person on the Eastside.

  70. 1320
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1297
    Trump is beating on the federal reserve to lower rates because the dollar is so strong right now. Based on what has previously happened, my guess is that rates go down and we get a big bump in Seattle this spring.

    Super low inventory, high demand, and lower rates has to mean prices go up.

  71. 1321
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1287
    I wasn’t born yet, but it sounds like a fun times

  72. 1322
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 1299

    I wasn’t kidding. The Irishman is my time and place and likely why you perceive me as tough.

  73. 1323
    DavidE says:

    So Seattle is now among the Top 5 Cities not just because of traffic, but the number of homeless as well. Sobering to watch.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homeless-in-america-the-issues-forcing-people-in-seattle-onto-the-street-60-minutes-2019-12-01/

  74. 1324
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1295

    The inventory curve for most years (other than significant transition years) shows that the peak is about 1500 higher than where the year started. So if we start 2020 at a level of 2000 (or a bit less) then the peak will be around 3500. Looks a lot like 2015-2017 to me.

    People tend to respond to scarcity (2015-2017) and excess (2018) quite quickly, either rushing in or holding off. If there is a condition of scarcity next year, why would we not see people acting like 2015-2017 again, at least to some extent?

  75. 1325

    Gulp Your Morning Yuban Down and Read the Condensed Brief:

    “…It’s a bad morning for commuters. Traffic is backed up for miles on northbound I-5 because of a crash near Southcenter. Check the real-time map before you go. And Sounder south line trains are delayed because of a death near the tracks….”

    SWE’s take: Its always that way anyway, the crash making it even worse? Death along the train tracks? Crash, knife or guns? There’s always a cheery news story in Seattle, almost daily now?

    “…The House today is releasing a landmark impeachment report outlining what Democrats say is evidence of President Donald Trump’s wrongdoing, and Trump had an outburst about this after landing in London last night for a NATO summit. What should it take to impeach a president? The Constitution lays that out in a passage that’s short enough to be a tweet and puzzling enough to be argued over more than two centuries later…”

    SWE’s Take: Get some real work done, we’ve got Obamacare to completely rebuild and replace, trade deals to sign and our stock market needs your support too, etc,etc…”

    “…Seattle police believe a driver was high on meth when she sped into four pedestrians on Aurora Avenue North on Friday, killing two of them. The 23-year-old driver fled and was arrested a few blocks away. She claimed the crash was intentional, police say in a document outlining the case against her…”

    SWE’s take: I recently had a drug crazed [her eyes were glazed and she acted weird] prostitute [apparently] break into my my car in Kent while driving my special needs adult son, the door was unlocked and she just barged on in, smashing my take out food…Seattle area crime and poverty go hand in hand. I told her to get out of the car when she started to physically attack my disabled son. She did, thank God. My terrorist training helped it go peaceful and I never lost my cool.

    Some happy news too from SWE: I just shipped a BIG box of King/Koontz covered books to my daughter for Christmas, it weighed 15 lbs and the USPS Media Mail [books only folks] was $10….makes AMZ, FedEx and UPS look like pirates in comparison…LOL

  76. 1326
    Beano says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1304 – Agree in general. Arrow points up….but realistic math puts a theoretical cap on prices to a degree. Up 3-5% in the right spots, flat to down in wrong spots or property in disrepair.

    I don’t expect properties in need of major repairs to move for anything but under, even next spring with relative inventory scarcity.

    Markets have expected recession for awhile – any signal in that direction and people will react quick.

  77. 1327
    Lulu says:

    RE: Beano @ 1306
    up 3-5% is barely beat the inflation. subtract -1% as repair cost and -2% inflation. So 3% is barely meet the inflation and 5% you get 2% on asset value. it’s not a lot.

  78. 1328
    uwp says:

    By Lulu @ 1307:

    RE: Beano @ 1306
    up 3-5% is barely beat the inflation. subtract -1% as repair cost and -2% inflation. So 3% is barely meet the inflation and 5% you get 2% on asset value. it’s not a lot.

    What if I levered it by only putting 20% down then rented it out? Can you run those numbers real quick?

  79. 1329

    RE: uwp @ 1308
    Yes uwp

    A house doesn’t put burgers on the table or pay property taxes, etc…..its a liability and a place is a need to live too. $CASH$ on the other hand buys Black Friday sales and dinners out. I was thinking last night how much money ya need to own and still be really the Uber Rich elites in Seattle with avg $700K SFHs? $250-500K per year was my rough estimate, with housing costs taking about 25-30% of the gross or 40-50% of the net pay after expenses. That’s middle class, No wonder homelessness is a way of life and not an option in Seattle.

    Retirees owning homes in Seattle, same conundrum, better be a millionaire 401K owner bringing in approx $60K/yr saving interest and afford living in Seattle off the million principle too? And/or have a pension and social security with a $500K 401K…just for the property taxes and medical costs, etc,…add in expensive cruise trips and European Resorts while retired, make that $2 million per person….LOL

  80. 1330

    Gulp Your Hot Mug of Yuban and Read the Condensed Seattle Brief:

    “…The boisterous House Judiciary Committee’s first impeachment hearing has begun. Here’s where to watch it and find updates, and what to look for. This comes a day after a report that served as the Intelligence Committee’s sweeping indictment of the president; read the five key takeaways. Meanwhile, Trump is speaking out today at a NATO summit in England, where world leaders were caught on video as they appeared to gossip about him…”

    SWE’s take: The NWO elites hate Trump and the “majority of the electoral college voters, the deplorables [us]”, the ones who elected him, of course they do, he’s demanding fair business terms. We need a “your fired” businessman in the WH with these types of sneaks and liars filling the SWAMP, with little plan to give us back our manufacturing engineering that EU and the Asians stole.

    “…Two years ago, Setsuko Irei fell out of bed and spent days on the floor of her Burien apartment, unable to move. Her friends in a program coordinated by Asian Counseling and Referral Service (ACRS) noticed, and first responders forced open her door. “Ms. Suki,” 86, credits ACRS and the community she’s found there with saving her life. It’s one of the organizations that benefits from The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy. Here’s how you can help. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: There’s 1000s of disabled all over Seattle, some actually paid into Social Security and Medicare all their lives, they were born here.

    “…King County is “cutting and running” with a judge’s emergency order to close the county courthouse’s Third Avenue entrance due to dangers outside, a nearby cafe owner says. Columnist Danny Westneat adds that the move sends exactly the wrong message — but there’s an obvious fix…”

    SWE’s take: That court house entrance area has been covered with homeless sleeping bags and filth for decades, nothing new…

    “…A friendly reminder from the FBI: Your smart TV probably watches you more closely than you watch it. The FBI’s Portland office is warning holiday shoppers to choose a smart TV carefully and lock it down against hackers. Speaking of shopping, a record 190 million Americans did that over the holiday weekend, shelling out significantly more per person than last year. ..”

    SWE’s take: Anything old or new electronic is suspect for spying on you. They can turn an old fashion phone into an intercom listening devise, even with the receiver down…read Dean Koontz. Your windows have allowed “clear” listening devises into your home from a 1/2 mile away for decades now too…this isn’t new at all.

    Some good news too…LOL…I hope they’re listening in on me, I’ll brainwash ’em…..LOL

  81. 1331
    Lulu says:

    RE: uwp @ 1308
    You know leverage works on both ways. So I just assume a paid house. 3% appreciation is barely break even with inflation. Generally, house is not the best investment. But, you have to have a den.

  82. 1332
    N says:

    Lot of talk about Inventory being low with clear evidence from the King County data.

    Looking at the Altos data for Seattle only (linked on this site), it doesn’t seem like Seattle inventory has taken the same dip. This would align with the observations that many second tier markets have seen greater demand than Seattle in the least year and a half – heck, Spokane has outpaced Seattle by a large margin in price growth.

    Seattle Inventory – All data is 7 day averages.
    11/29/19 – 1,023
    11/30/18 – 1,030

    8/30/19 – 1,404
    8/31/18 – 1,158

    9/27/19 – 1,576
    9/28/18 – 1,330

    5/24/19 – 1,518
    5/25/19 – 762

  83. 1333
    Dustin says:

    RE: N @ 1312 – This could support the idea that prices in Seattle became too high and will continue to decline in the near future (already happening in other U.S. cities), but inventory being low at the County level does not seem like good news for people waiting for an opportunity to buy in Seattle – if prices fall in Seattle and rise outside, at some point they’ll meet in the middle.

  84. 1334
    Beano says:

    RE: Dustin @ 1313 – If Seattle is unable to mitigate homeless/drug problem – they will accidentally mitigate the housing affordability crisis in the city.

    But seriously, at some point the East side blows past Seattle (way past) in desirability, right?

  85. 1335
    uwp says:

    By Lulu @ 1311:

    RE: uwp @ 1308
    I just assume a paid house. 3% appreciation is barely break even with inflation. Generally, house is not the best investment.

    Some might disagree:
    https://www.nber.org/papers/w24112.pdf

    The first key finding is that residential real estate, not equity, has been the best long-run
    investment over the course of modern history. Although returns on housing and equities are similar,
    the volatility of housing returns is substantially lower, as Table II shows. Returns on the two asset
    classes are in the same ballpark—around 7%—but the standard deviation of housing returns is
    substantially smaller than that of equities (10% for housing versus 22% for equities).

    Looking simply at appreciation leaves out the whole other half of the housing equation: rent (or if you live there, imputed rent).

  86. 1336
    Dustin says:

    RE: Beano @ 1314 – I think the East Side is already more desirable to people who prefer that lifestyle. Or are you saying that Bellevue will become more and more like Seattle? My opinion on the East Side is that the new light rail station will inspire growth in downtown Bellevue as buyers look for alternatives to Seattle’s high cost of living, crime, homelessness or other perceived problems. They’ll probably end up taking some of those problems with them, though, as things go.

  87. 1337
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 1315
    This is a 100+ page working paper on worldwide asset returns. They did not compare US housing vs stock returns.

    According to the Case-Shiller Housing Index, the average annualized rate of return for housing increased 3.7% between 1928 and 2013. Stocks returned 9.5% annualized during the same time.
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052015/which-has-performed-better-historically-stock-market-or-real-estate.asp

    Note those are nominal returns. Real (inflation adjusted) return is lower. According to Shiller, real home prices show a remarkable tendency to return to their 1890 level. (Translate for you – housing appreciate at close to inflation rate historically.)

  88. 1338
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1317:

    This is a 100+ page working paper on worldwide asset returns. They did not compare US housing vs stock returns.

    If you actually read it (or at least quickly scanned through it) you would see that you are wrong; they do compare country specific returns for equities, bonds, and housing.

    According to Shiller, real home prices show a remarkable tendency to return to their 1890 level. (Translate for you – housing appreciate at close to inflation rate historically.)

    I’m not arguing that appreciation is vastly higher than inflation, I’m saying that there is another source of returns from home ownership: rent.

  89. 1339
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 1318:

    If you actually read it (or at least quickly scanned through it) you would see that you are wrong; they do compare country specific returns for equities, bonds, and housing.

    Nope. Your quote from the paper, “The first key finding is that residential real estate, not equity, has been the best long-run investment over the course of modern history,” is clearly misleading. They said nothing of sort about US real estate and equity.

    I’m not arguing that appreciation is vastly higher than inflation, I’m saying that there is another source of returns from home ownership: rent.

    You forgot about property upkeep, repairs, taxes, carrying costs. Your rental income may cover the costs. But at today’s prices, your “investment” will not pencil out. You will be bleeding money on the rental property, unless it appreciates above inflation. If I am wrong, a lot of smart investors will still be buying properties. But they stopped buying over 3 years ago.

    Seattle may be different, according to some posters here. Ultimately you are responsible for the biggest financial decision of your life.

  90. 1340
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1319:

    You forgot about property upkeep, repairs, taxes, carrying costs. Your rental income may cover the costs.

    If you read the paper, they cover all those topics (Sections 3C “Accuracy of housing returns” and 3D “Comparability of housing and equity returns).

    I don’t know why it bothers you so much. Historically, housing has been an excellent investment. Does this mean it’s the best going forward, I don’t know. But there is certainly a long history behind the idea and it’s not crazy to think it might continue.

  91. 1341
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 1320
    Again, you are making unsubstantiated claims. The working paper did not find that US residential real estate outperforms equity over time. It is an outright lie.

  92. 1342

    Great View Points All, Time to Read the Brief, get your Yuban:

    “…The safety situation around the King County Courthouse is flatly unacceptable, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. Public officials cannot allow courthouse visitors to be randomly assaulted, and they must not wait for a tragedy to act. ..”

    SWE’s take: Decades old news and now its important? Why? I carried a umbrella in the 90s in that area not for the rain, it intimidated the MASS harassment then too, like a pointed sword.

    “… Huge amount of stormwater goes untreated as King County confronts soaring costs, climate change
    With Puget Sound’s water quality at stake, King County has been ordered by state and federal agencies to curb the flow of untreated storm and sewer water. The county expects to spend about $1.9 billion over the next decade, but it wants to renegotiate how to do this. Above, a new plant in Seattle’s Georgetown area will reduce the untreated stormwater flowing into the Duwamish River. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Add more OVERPOPULATION sewage to the systems with more growth, that will fix it.

    “…The House is officially drafting articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced this morning. A vote could come before Christmas. Here are key takeaways from the Judiciary Committee’s hearing yesterday, which mixed lofty arguments, partisan sniping — and a mention of the president’s son, Barron. Twitter exploded after Melania Trump fired back on that. Can’t get enough of this topic? The impeachment report will be published as a book…”

    SWE’s take: Dec 9th the IG report is released, until then flush down the sewage waste RE: the “brown stuff” from Washington Post alleging the IG report exonerates the DNC and FBI for Trump Tower 2016 wire tapping….don’t believe fake news from CNN or Wash Post, read it yourself.

    “…he Boeing chief engineer at the center of the 737 MAX crisis is retiring, too. John Hamilton’s replacement has some giant challenges ahead…”

    SWE’s take: The FAA certification of the 737 MAX 8 has no milestone, its TBD.

    “…A 250-foot path of destruction: A Los Angeles family visiting Seattle had just walked out of their hotel last week when a driver, apparently high on meth, sped onto the sidewalk and hit them. Charging papers detail the incident that left a brother and sister dead, their father severely injured, and the driver allegedly “dancing and smiling.”…”

    SWE’s take: We get a crime/poverty story like this every day now. Its the new establishment way? IMO, its been happening a long time now, its just now getting news.

    Good news too from SWE for buyers, more listings are unsold in my SE King County area since Summer, price needs downward push now? Are others seeing lots of unsold listings in their neighborhoods too?

  93. 1343
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1321:

    RE: uwp @ 1320
    Again, you are making unsubstantiated claims. The working paper did not find that US residential real estate outperforms equity over time. It is an outright lie.

    We don’t need that working paper to know that the stock market has outperformed real estate over the past century. People buy houses because long term it’s an appreciating asset and your home is your shelter, where you don’t have to worry about moving every 2-3 years because your lease is up, and long term it makes more financial sense to own than to rent (e.g. after 30 years you own the house outright).

  94. 1344
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1323
    Don’t forget the leverage. That’s how people like me without money can get money, is with leverage. From my experience, I have been able to generate way more money with real estate than I ever would have in the stock market. I did all the zero down and 5% down loans people on here bad mouth. Those loans got me the equity I needed to be able to afford investor loans and remodel a house. Now I just buy low, fix up, pull my equity out, and do it again. That’s the best way I could think of to generate more money and I feel like I’m on track and progressing nicely. I couldn’t have done that in the stock market.

  95. 1345
    OA says:

    RE: Erik @ 1324

    Understood, I was just saying that if ones compares the stock market vs owning a house in terms of growth over time then stock market wins. But there’s a reason why more people own a home vs invest in stock market….Yes, your house might not appreciate as fast as the S&P 500 but over time your monthly mortgage payment (if any) will be significantly less than the average rent price (yes, even if you include house maintenance)…So basically long term you have an asset that is not only growing in value (let’s say 3-4% annually) but it’s also saving you money but not paying market rate for rent.

  96. 1346
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1323 – I generally agree with you on the advantages of homeownership. However, there must be a limit. For example, 2007 is clearly a wrong time to buy a home. I’m afraid we are near a point where homeownership is detrimental for most people. I don’t think you would advocate buying a home in SF, NYC, or Vancouver. Buying a home in Vancouver today is like playing a lottery. The odds today is stacked against buyers. Otherwise, investors would still be scooping up rental homes but they are not.

    P.s. I am not a permabear as my recent comments might suggest. In fact, if you read my comments from over 3 years ago, I was generally positive or neutral on homeownership.

    P.p.s. I was driving around neighborhood recently and I saw many new (million dollar) homes being built. Feels like 2006. Next spring will be interesting…

  97. 1347
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1326

    I’m always talking long term (20+ years at least). For those that bought in 2007 and kept the house, they would be fine today. And it has to be an affordable purchase, which means people need to be very diligent in knowing how much they can truly afford. Just because your lender says you can, that doesn’t mean much. I do agree that certain places in KC are not affordable for most (eg. Eastside), and that sucks.

    This area has completely changed the past 15 years, so if a family can only afford to live in North or South King County, then it is what it is. Otherwise you move elsewhere. For the people that overleverage to have a better commute with the expectation that the house will only go up, that’s a risk that I would never take. This area is expensive, even a short term correction won’t change affordability that much IMO.

  98. 1348
    N says:

    @ Erik – Works great when the market goes up up and up. What happens if it turns. The stock market equivalent is individual stocks, buying on margin, trading options etc but with MUCH LOWER transaction costs (buying, selling and taking out your equity costs a ton in real estate)..ie you crank up the risk/reward just as you are doing in real estate. Index funds are up 25% this year and that’s not high on the risk spectrum, you can imagine what these other options could return, but again…RISK.

    Do you have an investment plan that calls for deleveraging when you hit your net worth goal?? Or does that number keep moving..

  99. 1349
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 1321:

    RE: uwp @ 1320
    Again, you are making unsubstantiated claims. The working paper did not find that US residential real estate outperforms equity over time. It is an outright lie.

    Don’t forget to count the rent saved. If the house appreciation break even with inflation, the rent is the tax free dividend payment. nevertheless Seattle housing appreciation beat inflation.

  100. 1350
    Lulu says:

    In Seattle. a $500K house or condo could rent for about $1800-2000/month. So annual rent/price =4-5% tax free dividend yield if owner lived in. Plus, $500K long term cap gain tax free for a couple. S&P500 yield is 2% and you have to pay tax on any gain from the sale. Seattle bubble are very good investment for local home owners.

  101. 1351
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 1328
    The goal is to have 10 rental properties in Seattle that I own free and clear. The reason that this is my goal is because I can quit my day job and live comfortably off the cashflow while the values increase over time. I don’t need to be rich, I just don’t want to depend on a paycheck anymore. I’ve been laid off before and I don’t like making my family depend on my earned income as that can easily go away.

    I plan to do some deleveraging 2022 because I believe that could be the top of this cycle. I want to sell one or two units and pay off one or two units in 2022. I hold some cash to offset risk of vacancy and all that. I’ll probably just keep $50k in a side pot for that. I’m figuring this out as I go, I’m not a pro yet and I’m doing this alone. So I will use HELOC money and hold cash to reduce my risk.

  102. 1352
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1330
    $500k asset rents for about $2700 based on my units in Seattle. I believe your numbers are off, but I don’t know all areas of Seattle. I paid $230k including remodel for a condo in Seattle in 2017 that rents for $1700/mo.

    It sounds like you are fudging the numbers to convince yourself why you shouldn’t invest because you are scared.

  103. 1353
    Lulu says:

    RE: Erik @ 1332
    Your $500k SFH bought in 2017 is worth about $600k
    and your $1700 condo rent has to minus $100-200 condo fee .
    The number I listed is just my estimate, not exact number.
    2018-2019 , Seattle YOY appreciation is negative if not 0%. So S&P500 beat Seattle bubble.

  104. 1354
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1327
    In the near term, Seattle home prices have peaked. The high tier has been struggling in the past 18 months or so. Some people here believe there is still room for (price) growth. I doubt it.

    Quoted from Wikipedia –
    Shiller also offers some explanations as to why a continuous uptrend is not observed in real home prices:
    Mobility: Shiller argues that “people and business will, if home prices are high enough, move far away, even leaving an area completely”. Land may be scarce locally, but urban land area is only 2.6% of the total land area in the United States.
    Easing land restrictions: Increasing prices put pressure on the government to ease restrictions on land in terms of how much can be built on a particular amount of land and also the amount of land available for development.
    Technology Improvements: Construction technology has improved considerably making home building cheaper and faster, which puts downward pressure on home prices.
    Thus, real home prices are essentially trend-less and do not show any continuous uptrend or downtrend in the long-run. This is not limited to the US as it is also observed in the real home price indices of Netherlands and Norway.

    I have another reason why the area can’t grow much more. Have you driven lately? Seattle now ranks 2nd worst commute in the nation.

    Seattle ranks 2nd worst commute time in US, report finds
    https://komonews.com/news/local/spend-a-lot-of-time-commuting-seattle-ranks-2nd-worst-in-us-report-finds

  105. 1355
    N says:

    @Lulu – Your neglecting to include property taxes ($4,500/yr est), Insurance, repairs and vacancy. Figure $5,000 for ins/taxes + 25% for repairs and vacancy and its not anywhere near 4-5%, more in the range of 2.5%. Not sure about your 2% S&P yield either, assuming it’s inflation adjusted but darn that sounds really low.

    BTW, we rent a house valued around $600k for $2,250/month. Old rule of thumb that you need to get 1% of the purchase price in monthly rent doesn’t apply on the west coast lol – Yep, that would mean $5k a month in rent on that $500k house. Eric did pretty darn good getting nearly 0.75% in monthly rent.

  106. 1356
    kenmorem says:

    By N @ 1328:

    @ Erik – Works great when the market goes up up and up. What happens if it turns. The stock market equivalent is individual stocks, buying on margin, trading options etc but with MUCH LOWER transaction costs (buying, selling and taking out your equity costs a ton in real estate)..ie you crank up the risk/reward just as you are doing in real estate. Index funds are up 25% this year and that’s not high on the risk spectrum, you can imagine what these other options could return, but again…RISK.

    Do you have an investment plan that calls for deleveraging when you hit your net worth goal?? Or does that number keep moving..

    erik is like the POTUS. he’ll foreclose and take the social welfare.

  107. 1357
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1334

    When it comes to short term I tend to agree with you, there will probably be a correction.

    Funny Shiller says that construction technology has improved, which should mean that building will be cheaper and faster. I just got done building our first house this year, and it ain’t cheap b/c of the high labor here. Plus managing subs is the hardest thing when it comes to building.

  108. 1358
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1337
    Yes, labor (and material) costs have gone up significantly in recent years. However, labor was cheap earlier in the decade because of the Great Recession. Compared to pre-2007, inflation adjusted labor cost may not have gone up as much. I have not looked it up.

    Yes, construction technology has improved over time. Roof is one good example. Siding is another one. Plumbing too. You get better quality at lower prices in many cases. Going forward, I believe (3D) modular building technology will lead to even better products for less!

  109. 1359
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 1334:

    RE: OA @ 1327
    In the near term, Seattle home prices have peaked. The high tier has been struggling in the past 18 months or so. Some people here believe there is still room for (price) growth. I doubt it.

    Quoted from Wikipedia –
    Shiller also offers some explanations as to why a continuous uptrend is not observed in real home prices:
    Mobility: Shiller argues that “people and business will, if home prices are high enough, move far away, even leaving an area completely”. Land may be scarce locally, but urban land area is only 2.6% of the total land area in the United States.
    Easing land restrictions: Increasing prices put pressure on the government to ease restrictions on land in terms of how much can be built on a particular amount of land and also the amount of land available for development.
    Technology Improvements: Construction technology has improved considerably making home building cheaper and faster, which puts downward pressure on home prices.
    Thus, real home prices are essentially trend-less and do not show any continuous uptrend or downtrend in the long-run. This is not limited to the US as it is also observed in the real home price indices of Netherlands and Norway.

    I have another reason why the area can’t grow much more. Have you driven lately? Seattle now ranks 2nd worst commute in the nation.

    Seattle ranks 2nd worst commute time in US, report finds
    https://komonews.com/news/local/spend-a-lot-of-time-commuting-seattle-ranks-2nd-worst-in-us-report-finds

    Human life is limited. an hr in commuting is an hr short of life. That’s land close to hwy and city are expensive. Some people choose to live hours away from work, that’s their choice. To me, life can’t be measured by dollars.

  110. 1360
    Eastsider says:

    By Lulu @ 1339:

    Human life is limited. an hr in commuting is an hr short of life. That’s land close to hwy and city are expensive. Some people choose to live hours away from work, that’s their choice. To me, life can’t be measured by dollars.

    If money is no object, sure. But most people (90%?) do not have the financial resource / freedom. To them, it is a choice between becoming a house debt slave or having a life. Cheers.

  111. 1361
    Eastsider says:

    Hmm.. this post is almost 3 months old!

  112. 1362
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1338:

    RE: OA @ 1337
    Yes, labor (and material) costs have gone up significantly in recent years. However, labor was cheap earlier in the decade because of the Great Recession. Compared to pre-2007, inflation adjusted labor cost may not have gone up as much. I have not looked it up.

    Yes, construction technology has improved over time. Roof is one good example. Siding is another one. Plumbing too. You get better quality at lower prices in many cases. Going forward, I believe (3D) modular building technology will lead to even better products for less!

    Yes, it was cheap during the recession b/c there was no work. It’s REALLY expensive now here.

    I think Deerhawke can probably comment more on building material, but I have a hard time seeing construction costs becoming relatively cheaper here.

  113. 1363
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1333
    The information I gave you was a correct. You are making incorrect assumptions to change it. Do what you want, but I’m not going to argue with you about my finances. If you don’t believe me, I am not going to try and convince you.

  114. 1364
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1336
    Correct.

  115. 1365
    Deerhawke says:

    NWMLS published November stats yesterday. The breakouts are here:

    https://www.nwmls.com/library/CorporateContent/statistics/KCbreakouts.pdf

    The Seattle Times has its write up this morning with an article entitled “ It’s a Sellers Market in King County as Inventory Tightens in ‘November Surprise’.

    https://www.Seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/king-county-once-again-a-sellers-market-as-inventory-tightens-in-november-surprise/

  116. 1366
    Deerhawke says:

    It is hard for me to see any kind of November surprise. For those paying attention, the trend lines have been pretty clear and consistent for several months. Double-digit changes in any market is like spelling things out with the caps-lock on.

    Supply indicators:
    New listings are down 20.8%.
    Inventory is down 35.52%.
    Months of Supply is down to a mere 1.28 months of inventory.

    Demand indicators:
    Pendings are up 8.72% .
    Closed sales are up 11.98%.

    Prices are up 2.73% which is not a big deal but is, in my opinion, a real indicator of things to come—especially given the change in composition of sales.

    I think people buying now are getting a good deal. (Way to go UWP!)

    There is always a lag effect before buyers and sellers not only get the memo but read the memo and understand the memo so they tumble to some idea of what is actually the going on. And then it takes a little longer to react. That will all play out in the spring market.

  117. 1367

    Seattle RE Sellers are King Now? Listings are down. Read the Condensed Brief and Gulp Yuban:

    “…Have a great weekend. There’s plenty to do, whether you want to dress like Chewbacca for a “Star Wars” 5K or join in the fun at a winter festival. Or sit still, catch a new movie (here are our reviews) and rest up for Tuesday’s Deck the Hall Ball…”

    SWE’s take: Skip the new Hollywood international movies, too much unskilled/inexperience actors and “regurgitated” subpar screen plays. The newer Star Wars is a good example.

    “…A controversial tiny-house village in Seattle won’t have to shut down next week. The city has granted a reprieve to the Nickelsville Northlake village. And lawmakers’ plan to create a regional homelessness authority has taken a big twist that not everyone is happy about…”

    SWE’s take: Did they budget in utilities, property taxes? No one wants to pay?

    “… A Washington woman who says she was forced into prostitution at age 12 is accusing Craigslist and four South Puget Sound hotels of profiting from child sex trafficking. Her federal lawsuit says Craigslist and hotel chains knew their businesses were being used in connection with child rape and sexual exploitation…”

    SWE’s take: Was she brought here illegally as a sex slave from foreign centered human traffic organized crime?

    “…Authorities are looking for a robber after two store clerks were shot in two days in Pierce County. The clerk who was shot yesterday “did exactly what he was told to do, but he was shot anyway,” sheriff’s spokesman Ed Troyer said…”

    SWE’s take: Almost everyday we get a cheery story like this from Seattle.

    Good News: There’s still about two weeks until Christmas, plenty of delivery time to order online.

  118. 1368
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1346:

    I think people buying now are getting a good deal. (Way to go UWP!)

    There is always a lag effect before buyers and sellers not only get the memo but read the memo and understand the memo so they tumble to some idea of what is actually the going on. And then it takes a little longer to react. That will all play out in the spring market.

    A December report like this one would go a long way to putting me at ease.

    I feel good about the purchase; especially considering the plan is to live there for (hopefully) 15+ years. But it’s still a nerve-racking experience making such a big move right before the new year begins.

  119. 1369
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1346
    Yay!!! Make it rain one last time Seattle housing market! I’ll be selling at the top of this bump in 2021 and 2022.

  120. 1370
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 1348
    Good job! Fraidy cats that talk themselves out of good deals from fear frequent this website. Ignore them and play offense, not defense.

  121. 1371
    kenmorem says:

    justme is justgone nowadays

  122. 1372
    Deerhawke says:

    By uwp @ 1348:

    By Deerhawke @ 1346:

    A December report like this one would go a long way to putting me at ease.

    I feel good about the purchase; especially considering the plan is to live there for (hopefully) 15+ years. But it’s still a nerve-racking experience making such a big move right before the new year begins.

    I think the December KC report will show us at say 2000 units of inventory. Maybe less. That is the trend line. January will be just a bit higher. That is fully back in 2016 inventory territory.

    People will be hesitant to get too crazy against the backdrop of an election year and the impeachment hearings. But if they see three articles in the Seattle Times like today’s, they will be motivated.

    Other thoughts to help put you at ease.

    1) You always do better buying in November or December
    2) You always do better selling in February or March.
    3) You always do better buying when inventory is dropping but before people all wake up to the fact that it has dropped.
    4) You always do better selling when inventory has dropped and people are fully aware of it

    I like your chances. If you are still feeling nervous, go read today’s jobs report.

    The U.S. Added 266,000 Jobs in November. Here’s the Bottom Line.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/06/business/economy/november-jobs-report.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

  123. 1373
    Plymster says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1352 – The jobs report is a little wierd. Christmas is upon us, and so is 2020 Census hiring (~4 million).

    Yet Retail and Government hiring is flat?

  124. 1374
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Plymster @ 1353

    Yeah I saw that but am not sure it really matters that much. It is a very full employment economy. And they even adjusted the figures up substantially for the past few months. Wages were even up a bit too. Pretty darned strong report.

    Census jobs are great for getting young people and those who left to care for kids/relatives employed. There is a longer term effect on employment and workforce participation.

  125. 1375
    DavidE says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1354:

    RE: Plymster @ 1353

    Yeah I saw that but am not sure it really matters that much. It is a very full employment economy. And they even adjusted the figures up substantially for the past few months. Wages were even up a bit too. Pretty darned strong report.

    Census jobs are great for getting young people and those who left to care for kids/relatives employed. There is a longer term effect on employment and workforce participation.

    Did you read the job report? 41,000 GM workers workers who were on strike went back to work, and they add them to the job numbers. What a scam. They were added to manufacturing jobs (it is right in the report).

  126. 1376
    Erik says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1355
    I’m a data driven person and it makes total sense to me and isn’t a scam. I think in terms of math because that’s what I’ve spent the majority of my life doing. 41k people were on strike and out of work. The strike ended and they went back to work adding 41k jobs to the economy. Data is facts but you want to drive some other agenda that doesn’t represent the facts.

  127. 1377
    DavidE says:

    RE: Erik @ 1356

    Sold to you. Their objective is to fool people into thinking that these are new jobs.. More importantly, they also claimed over 50K manufacturing jobs were “created” (the most in over two decades, which included the 41k GM workers who ended the strike).

    You claim to follow math, and I believe it. It is the same fuzzy math that the Labor Department follows.

  128. 1378
    David says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1354 – Notice how they routinely adjust Trump’s numbers up consistently. Notice how Obama’s numbers were always adjusted down months after the initial report.

  129. 1379

    RE: DavidE @ 1357RE: Erik @ 1356
    At Least GM UAW Pays Lower Tier I Pay Rates [$14/hr is my best guess, they report this with no credible raw data and use like $40-80/hr figures with no data descriptions, like Tier I and II], GM UAW Went on Strike Too Because of Tier Pay

    http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/4814/more_worker_casualties_in_a_bleak_economy

    The non-union foreign plants are worse, far worse…and no American Manufacturing Engineers to boot.

    “…I work at Toyota plant in Texas and only make 15.01 per…”

    Rent Your Seattle Home to buy? I wouldn’t, like the comment to this article said, yeah you spend $2000 for a $500 rent to own purchase…LOL

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/rent-own-homes-232050079.html

  130. 1380

    RE: DavidE @ 1357
    Reminds Me of That AMZ/MSFT/Boeing Scam On Seattle Wages….Make em’ Sound High, but Really Pay Burger flipper wages at Tier I Level With No Pensions….LOL

    The raw data is stealth and ghost on UAW and Toyota [Non-Union] Tier I Wages….my best guess from reading the articles and comments is about $15/hr…my gosh, the new cars are over priced junk built by Seattle homelessness wages levels….LOL…a Texas commentor said they were making $15.01/hr at the Toyota plant there, no American Manufacturing Engineers either, those only do American Manufacturing in like Detroit.

    No wonder Bezos and his billionaire buddies are laughing at us….we’ve given them all the good pay…

  131. 1381

    RE: David @ 1358
    The Actual Political Polls Were About +/-20-30% Accurate in 2016

    It hasn’t changed.

  132. 1382

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1359
    Meanwhile Seattle Home Owners Stuck With HORRIFYING Car Prices and High Home Prices

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-tech-features-push-u-120000047.html

    Those same high tech automobile features from Asia are cheap at the factory [like $10/unit for factory cost flat screen TVs in China], but become “gold” when ya sign the new car contract….LOL….its just like Seattle pretend pay, pretend its high but its really like $20/hr avg per capita.

  133. 1383
    Bumble says:

    By David @ 1358:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1354 – Notice how they routinely adjust Trump’s numbers up consistently. Notice how Obama’s numbers were always adjusted down months after the initial report.

    RE: David @ 1358

    It is a liberal conspiracy!!! Deep state!!! No need to provide any evidence, David, I trust your gut.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2076069001

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4123664002

  134. 1384

    Good past Comments

    Is it better to buy stocks or real estate now? Being involved in the drudgeries of home ownership and working at being a landlord too, I’d say with 10+% American stock returns and even 8% long-term Bond returns, shuffle gold coins around like Scrooge and buy equities instead of wasting your time on RE. I don’t consider my landlord work of up-keeping a 2nd house a $0/hr paid effort in time consumed…try $100/hr at my professional pay level, or I won’t do it. Period.

    Its like the Impeachment circuses, they never mention the true cost with Congress labor consumed. Recycling garbage at Allied with $25/hr workers, same “loss” conundrum, and labor money gets burned like wild.

  135. 1385
    Erik says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1357
    The data accounted for the lost jobs when the employees went on strike and added the jobs when they went back to work. Did you complain when the numbered were 41k too low when the employees went on strike or did you only complain when the numbers appeared too high because the employees went back to work?

  136. 1386
    Deerhawke says:

    By kenmorem @ 1351:

    justme is justgone nowadays

    I think there are two indicators of a near-term bullish market.

    1) Justme is now Justgone.

    2) Tim has not posted since the August figures came out. The fact that he has not, as Voight-Kamff noted, is a significant indicator in its own right.

    I am sure the Tim is busy with his job, family, other side gigs, etc. but I think we can all agree that if there were real signs or weakness in the market, he would be very glad to weigh in.

  137. 1387
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1364:

    I think there are two indicators of a near-term bullish market.

    Deerhawke, can I ping you with a builder/land question?
    I seem to remember you sharing a gmail account in the past.

  138. 1388
    DavidE says:

    RE: Erik @ 1363

    A wise man said there is no point making someone see reason when his existence depends on not seeing it. You swallow the Labor Department’s lies hook, line, and bait since you want to believe that real estate will keep going up due to strong economy and jobs, and your investments will pay off as such.

    You ignore massive erosion in purchasing power, the offshoring of jobs, rampant price inflation despite government lies, all to believe in the fantasy of the greatest economy ever. T

    The greatest stock investor of 20th century (John Templeton, look him up) once said: ” The four costliest words in investing are This Time It’s Different.”

  139. 1389
    Erik says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1366
    I’ve cited that quote many times because I like it.

    I don’t really give a rats a$$ about trump, the economy, or all that stuff fake news has you are obsessed with.

    Data point #1: Inventory in Seattle is super low
    Data point #2: Seattle demand is high
    Data point #3: The president wants lower interest rates because US has a strong dollar

    You can keep coming at me with you left wing emotion based logic, but I will not consider it. It sounds to me that you’ve been brainwashed by the media. I would say that most people are, especially people 50 or older so don’t feel bad. People 50 and older have believed the news so long but it’s all run by the DNC/RNC now so you can’t believe it. They cannot change.

    The 3 data points I cited above are enough for me to believe we have a few more years before a housing crash. I don’t listen to our corrupt media. And if I do listen to something, I dig into it to try and find the real truth. I’m planning on a 2022 top and based on market conditions, I think the chances are on my side. I want to own my first 2 deeds in 2022.

  140. 1390
    DavidE says:

    By Erik @ 1367:

    RE: DavidE @ 1366
    I’ve cited that quote many times because I like it.

    I don’t really give a rats a$$ about trump, the economy, or all that stuff fake news has you are obsessed with.

    Data point #1: Inventory in Seattle is super low
    Data point #2: Seattle demand is high
    Data point #3: The president wants lower interest rates because US has a strong dollar

    You can keep coming at me with you left wing emotion based logic, but I will not consider it. It sounds to me that you’ve been brainwashed by the media. I would say that most people are, especially people 50 or older so don’t feel bad. People 50 and older have believed the news so long but it’s all run by the DNC/RNC now so you can’t believe it. They cannot change.

    The 3 data points I cited above are enough for me to believe we have a few more years before a housing crash. I don’t listen to our corrupt media. And if I do listen to something, I dig into it to try and find the real truth. I’m planning on a 2022 top and based on market conditions, I think the chances are on my side. I want to own my first 2 deeds in 2022.

    Eirk, calm down, and take a deep breath. Stop accusing those who disagree with you on being left wing or whatever–this is getting old even for you.

    58% of Modified Mortgages go in Re-default status after 8 Months. But banks are not foreclosing. Millions of single family homes (12%) are vacant and bank owned property. Of course you knew all that, right?

    That’s why inventory is “super low” everywhere including in Seattle. Banks are passing on these costs to savers and responsible working people rather than to speculators in the stock market and real state business. Only a matter of time before the whole house of cards comes unglued when there is no more to take from those workers who actually add value to the economy.

  141. 1391
    don says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1368

    @DavidE, I think you missed a decimal point on the % sf vacant.

    “ATTOM Data Solutions, has released its Q3 2019 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report showing there are over 1.5 million (1,530,563) U.S. single-family homes and condos vacant in the third quarter of 2019, representing 1.6 percent of all homes.”

  142. 1392
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1365

    Sure. I would be glad to talk to you. Send me an email at this name @gmail.com.

  143. 1393
    Erik says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1368
    Good luck out there. I don’t see any benefit in trying to talk sense into you. Bye.

  144. 1394
    Voight-kampff says:

    Very interesting article about how concentrated tech growth has become, and how growth begets more growth. Maybe this time is different in some (limited) respects, at least when comparing tech to other industries.

    “The traditional manufacturing and natural resources economy didn’t work at all this way,”

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2019/12/9/21000162/high-tech-job-growth-concentration-brookings

  145. 1395
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1372
    I agree that this article is interesting. A while back, I think it was Deerhawke that posted an article on here from the Seattle Times talking about why tech companies cause a city to keep getting bigger and bigger. The Seattle Times article was saying, like this article, that the concentrated number or tech people cause more tech companies to grow.

    The article in the Seattle Times also included that an example of how an area grows from a concentration of educated people such as tech workers is this…. Someone at a tech company gets an idea while they are working at their tech job. Then they go develop their idea outside of work and probably in the same city since they gotta have income. Then they perhaps start a tech company and hire people possibly from different states and the city has real growth and hence higher demand for real estate.

    Good applicable article, and I’m just trying to add how I suspect this growth comes about.

  146. 1396
    DavidE says:

    By Erik @ 1371:

    RE: DavidE @ 1368
    Good luck out there. I don’t see any benefit in trying to talk sense into you. Bye.

    You could not counter my argument when faced with math–and you lost when I stated the facts that 12% of single family homes are vacant and and over 50% of modified mortgages are in re-default. This is how serious the current situation is and another way those in power are trying to suppress the market forces (which will eventually overwhelm them like the last time).

    When this bubble collapses you will be one of those crybaby speculators asking for a handout from those of us who lived responsibly. That’s really the issue here. Stock and real estate speculators like yourself add nothing of value to this nation’s economy.

  147. 1397

    The Answer is Simple, Until You Realize There’s No Raw Data to Support It? Step up to the bar and fill your mugs with Yuban while reading the condensed brief:

    “…Why don’t more immigrants arrive legally in the U.S.? There’s a perception that people are choosing between two doors, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes: one legal, the other illegal. But what if the “legal” door is padlocked, blockaded or simply nonexistent? …”

    SWE’s Take: No one gets to cut in front of the “legal” waiting lines to become American citizens….no one.

    “…Tim Eyman made more than $297,000 in the past year. No, wait, he made less than $48,000. Why the gaping discrepancy in the initiative king’s statements? Eyman, who has announced a run for governor, says there’s a perfectly good explanation. But his financial transparency has long been an issue, and the sources of his money are hazy. …”

    SWE’s Take: Allegations don’t make ya guilty, a conviction is needed in America.

    “…Happening today on impeachment: The House Judiciary Committee has begun hearing the findings against President Donald Trump as it prepares to draft articles of impeachment. Find updates and watch a live stream. More: Here’s a quick look at what to expect as we hurtle toward an impeachment vote before Christmas. Also coming today: a highly anticipated report on Robert Mueller’s Russia probe. Its conclusions have already leaked out. Falsehoods are flying among Trump and others, fact-checkers say….”

    SWE’s take: No falsehoods pouring from the Seattle Times on TOTAL lack of due process and closing the evidence hearings to Republicans [too embarrassing to date with unanimous key witness?]…shut the impeachment cost faucet off…its wasting Congress’ money and you know it…”

    “…Transgender children’s gender identity is as strong as it is in cisgender children (those who identify with the gender they were assigned at birth), a groundbreaking UW study has found. Just as cisgender children tend to choose toys that are stereotypically associated with their gender, transgender children tend to do the same according to the gender they identify as — no matter how long they’ve been treated otherwise, researchers say….”

    SWE’s take: We’ve got far more important American goals than just unisex bathrooms.

    The Good News. The Seahawks made the Wild Cards even if the RAMs made lunch of ’em last night…LOL

  148. 1398
    Dustin says:

    By DavidE @ 1374:

    you lost when I stated the facts that 12% of single family homes are vacant and and over 50% of modified mortgages are in re-default. This is how serious the current situation is

    Where are you getting that data regarding vacancy rates? Is that specific to Seattle?

    DavidE @ 1374:

    and another way those in power are trying to suppress the market forces (which will eventually overwhelm them like the last time).

    I don’t think anything is being done to suppress market forces – there is strong demand for homes in Seattle. If there is a bubble in real estate, I think it’s this:

    By Erik @ 1367:

    Data point #3: The president wants lower interest rates because US has a strong dollar

    A lot of the equity gains have been made in a low interest rate environment. With rising interest rates (I think inevitable in the long term, barring the possibility of the end of capitalism), there will be a long term headwind for future price growth.

    By DavidE @ 1374:

    Stock and real estate speculators like yourself add nothing of value to this nation’s economy.

    I think this is a misconception – real estate investors flip houses in poor condition to make them desirable (or in some cases habitable) to average people again. They are also your landlord if you are a renter and the reason you have the option not to purchase property. People decry properties being held vacant by greedy speculators, which I’m sure does happen occasionally, but wouldn’t a good investor want to make more money? Renting the speculative investment can pay the taxes and utilities for the property, while putting cash in the investor’s pocket.

  149. 1399
    kenmorem says:

    By DavidE @ 1374:

    By Erik @ 1371:

    RE: DavidE @ 1368
    Good luck out there. I don’t see any benefit in trying to talk sense into you. Bye.

    You could not counter my argument when faced with math–and you lost when I stated the facts that 12% of single family homes are vacant and and over 50% of modified mortgages are in re-default. This is how serious the current situation is and another way those in power are trying to suppress the market forces (which will eventually overwhelm them like the last time).

    When this bubble collapses you will be one of those crybaby speculators asking for a handout from those of us who lived responsibly. That’s really the issue here. Stock and real estate speculators like yourself add nothing of value to this nation’s economy.

    erik is a classic GOPer: yell, accuse, MSU. then, when obvious facts smack him in the face, insult some more, say that you got triggered, and end conversation. poor guy.

  150. 1400
    Deerhawke says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 1372:

    Very interesting article about how concentrated tech growth has become, and how growth begets more growth. Maybe this time is different in some (limited) respects, at least when comparing tech to other industries.

    “The traditional manufacturing and natural resources economy didn’t work at all this way,”

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2019/12/9/21000162/high-tech-job-growth-concentration-brookings

    The Vox piece is a good summary of the Brookings article. If you want to understand what is going on in the Puget Sound area, read the whole Brookings article.

    It is not so much that this time is different, but that this — place—is different.

    Seattle/Bellevue/Kirkland/Redmond and to a lesser extent Renton/Everett are part of an increasingly broad-based innovation cluster. We are not immune to global and national economic forces. There will be booms and recessions, growth accelerations and slowdowns. But over time, real estate here will be affected by this long-term structural change in the economy, despite short-term fluctuations.

  151. 1401
    Beano says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1377 – At least until AI doesn’t replace tech workers. For all the talk of STEM jobs, AI is probably going to be pretty good (probably better) at replacing many types of STEM jobs than other kinds that we often dismiss today.

  152. 1402
    don says:

    By kenmorem @ 1376:

    By DavidE @ 1374:

    By Erik @ 1371:

    RE: DavidE @ 1368
    Good luck out there. I don’t see any benefit in trying to talk sense into you. Bye.

    You could not counter my argument when faced with math–and you lost when I stated the facts that 12% of single family homes are vacant and and over 50% of modified mortgages are in re-default. This is how serious the current situation is and another way those in power are trying to suppress the market forces (which will eventually overwhelm them like the last time).

    When this bubble collapses you will be one of those crybaby speculators asking for a handout from those of us who lived responsibly. That’s really the issue here. Stock and real estate speculators like yourself add nothing of value to this nation’s economy.

    erik is a classic GOPer: yell, accuse, MSU. then, when obvious facts smack him in the face, insult some more, say that you got triggered, and end conversation. poor guy.

    Where is the reference that sets vacant single family at 12% ? A legitimate link supporting that claim would be interesting.

  153. 1403
    Erik says:

    RE: DavidE @ 1374
    Criticism accepted. You are right, I’m not that smart and I’m not that successful.

  154. 1404
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1376
    Criticism accepted. I do not consider myself republican, but if you say so.

  155. 1405
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 1372:

    “The traditional manufacturing and natural resources economy didn’t work at all this way,”

    Somebody needs to go back to history class. Technology hubs have existed for a very long time. Aerospace was heavily concentrated in Seattle, Wichita, and Southern California. Automobiles had Detroit. Steel had Pittsburgh. Furniture manufacturing had a hub in North Carolina, the garment industry in NYC. Heck, Delaware has been a hub for chemical production going all the way back to before the Revolutionary war.

  156. 1406
    Beano says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 1381 – all excellent points. clusters of industry, labor and tech are nothing new, at all. finance, entertainment, manufacturing, ag, tourism, you name it.

  157. 1407
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 1381

    You should read the article. The study doesn’t claim that clustering is new. It claims that clustering always happened (often based on geography and resources), but eventually jobs, money and talent spread out over time. With tech, the opposite is happening.

  158. 1408
    Deerhawke says:

    By Beano @ 1378:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1377 – At least until AI doesn’t replace tech workers. For all the talk of STEM jobs, AI is probably going to be pretty good (probably better) at replacing many types of STEM jobs than other kinds that we often dismiss today.

    RE: Beano @ 1378

    A couple of thoughts related to AI.

    1) I have been hearing serious discussion of the promise of AI since the Apple 2e came out. But it will take longer to build out than we think. It is not here yet. Maybe another 10 years? Do you think 20? It depends on how you define it.

    2) If AI gets developed anywhere, it is most likely to get developed in Seattle and the Bay Area.

    3) As AI is developed, Seattle is one of those places that will roll it out into other industries because we have such a broad technology and manufacturing base. Medicine and drug development, aerospace, trucking, mass retail, etc.

  159. 1409
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1383

    +1. Yes it helps to read the full article. In fact clustering is not completely new, but has a different dynamic now with tech. The Brookings piece approaches the phenomenon as a social, financial and political problem that needs to be addressed as a national priority.

    A thoughtful friend compared Seattle and the other tech-cities to black holes pulling in the best and brightest, the hot new technologies, the financial resources, etc. and leaving the rest of the country stuck falling further behind in bitterness and opioid addiction.

    I personally doubt we will address the disparity (or even try) and that is a major reason I am long-term bullish on real estate in the region.

    Another review of the article was the lead in The NY Times business section today.

    A Few Cities Have Cornered Innovation Jobs. Can That Be Changed?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/09/business/economy/innovation-jobs-cities.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

  160. 1410
    noogakl81 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1385

    I have serious doubts about the conclusions drawn by the Brookings piece based on the New York Times article.

    1. The data is old, from 2005 – 2017. Recently we’ve seen a number of articles indicating that the opposite is happening: people leaving the tech hubs to move to more affordable places to leave. Examples include:

    a. The article about the influx of Californians moving to Boise that someone cited earlier. Per LinkedIn, Boise is the number one destination for professionals leaving Seattle and moving to another city. These Californians and Seattleites are moving to Boise to work in factories; they are bringing tech jobs (and tech money) with them.
    b. Articles indicating that most millennials are looking to leave the Bay Area: https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-are-fed-up-with-san-francisco-housing-2017-3
    c. Pittsburgh is becoming an AI hub. Google has a huge presence there and is partnering with Carnegie Mellon and the University of Pittsburgh to continue that work. The city was one of the first to allow driverless taxis. It doesn’t need government intervention to make it a tech hub. It is becoming one right now, with a key advantage being cheaper real estate than tech hubs on the coasts.
    d. A colleague of mine left the Bay Area to go get a job in Denver as a data scientist. His startup was successful and I’m sure he made a good deal of money. He is staying in Denver and working remotely for a company in the Bay Area. As the technology gets better, telecommuting for affordability reasons will continue to grow.

    2. The data seems really small. Seattle has only gained 56,000 jobs in these key industries over 12 years? Amazon has more than 11,000 open positions listed for the Seattle area right now. They must be very narrowly defining what a good job is, because I am sure that Seattle has created way more than 56,000 good jobs from 2005 to 2017 with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. plus all the biotech companies.

    That said, I think that the greater Seattle area will continue to be a desirable destination for tech workers so long as Washington state has no income tax and no state capital gains tax. That is a huge incentive for tech workers to move here. That is an advantage that the state of Washington has over all of California, New York City, Boston and the DC area. But that may change, as Washington lawmakers have been trying for many years to implement some sort of income tax, and have appointed / elected judges who are more friendly to that idea. We’ll see what happens with the city of Seattle’s proposed income tax on high earners in the higher courts.

  161. 1411

    Whether We Like it or not RE in Seattle Needs Millenials at AVG PER CAPITA $20/HR PAY

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/millennials-drive-us-housing-market-103810761.html

    Read the comments, its better than this NAR article. I like the one that read, they’ll buy after their parents are dead…LOL

  162. 1412

    Gulp Your Yuban Down, Read the Condensed Brief and Thank God You’re Not a Tier I Waged Boeing Worker Making Hamburger Flipper Wages and No Pension

    “…Workers at Boeing’s Renton plant were overworked, exhausted and making mistakes before the deadly 737 MAX crashes, a former senior manager says. Ed Pierson will describe to Congress tomorrow why he called on Boeing to shut down the MAX production line last year….”

    SWE’s Take: I predict two more CEOs get fired and I’m not sure if the MAX 8 will ever recover…the answer is simple, bring high paid parts manufacturing engineering back to Boeing Seattle….its gonna take 5-10 years on-the-job training to get this experience and skill back, just college is a joke. Time to get honest and swallow the bitter pill, its gonna take muscular Rosey the Riveter women and strong backs from men workers [who can lift 50 lbs per OSHA] to do this…start training ’em now! We need $35-40/hr avg per capita pay again.

    “…The Trump administration’s policy shift to tighten food-stamp eligibility will reverberate painfully across thousands of Washington residents’ lives, especially those in the seasonal agriculture and tourism sectors, the Seattle Times editorial board writes…”

    SWE’s Take: I see plenty of help wanted signs all over Seattle, I’m sure the Food Stamps aren’t needed unless you don’t want to work. Get a real job.

    “…At some Seattle schools, a taxi dropping off homeless kids will cross paths with a Tesla in the parking lot. It’s a sign of the demographic shifts reshaping the student population as Seattle booms, reflected in new data. Meanwhile, a task force tonight will make its long-awaited recommendations about what should happen to the gifted program. ..”

    SWE’s take: Make sure you get your public school children not sharing hats or coats…it spreads homelessness lice and its almost impossible to cure. How do the homeless kids get showers and clean clothes? It must stink in the class rooms.

  163. 1413
    don says:

    I would still like to see a credible source for the claim that 12% of single family homes in the US are vacant. I can’t get there with Google searches.
    Anyone ?

  164. 1414
    Juststoppedby says:

    Contrary to anecdotal evidence, redfin just released new data showing that Seattle has only about 10% of home purchases where the homes are receiving more than 1 bid.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/november-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/amp/

    Looks like the capital controls in china are continuing to take a toll.

  165. 1415
    Beano says:

    >>>A thoughtful friend compared Seattle and the other tech-cities to black holes pulling in the best and brightest, the hot new technologies, the financial resources, etc. and leaving the rest of the country stuck falling further behind in bitterness and opioid addiction.>>>

    This is a simplistic and ignorant view of the country.

    I’m from the “rest of the country” lived in 8 states and about the only times I frequently see heavy drug use in public, in what should be thriving commercial areas, is San Francisco and Seattle. I can probably walk two blocks right now from my office overlooking Puget Sound and watch a guy stick a needle in his arm.

    A woman in my neighborhood (Wallingford), drugged up on smack, just ran over 4 people in broad daylight, killing two. She is 23. She laughed at the scene and told the cops she tried to hit people. Look it up.

    Zombies prowl the streets where I live and it’s supposed to be a nice neighborhood. People are detached and not proactive here. Excepting Gates (retired), Allen (dead) and Bezos (moved to NY/DC).

    A lot of thoughts have been shared in the past day, let me share a few of mine – pardon the old school Larry King style commentary.

    USA is very wealthy and it’s not just due to a few cities. In fact Seattle has virtually no old money and few generations old institutions that make a city a CITY. It’s clear just from driving around, Seattle housing stock is cheap crap both old and new. The infrastructure of the city is way behind others and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, consider how much the city is at war with cars/roads (complete denial) and how they are betting on a white elephant (light rail) over the next 30 years.

    Also, tech is hilariously overrated. It’s overrated in terms of GDP and overrated in terms of producing value and products with value. I’m aware that its been driving the Dow, which is much as a commentary on Wall St than tech.

    Overrated doesn’t mean it’s zero, no, it’s quite valuable of course, but it’s not nearly the one thing that drives wealth in America. We have an extremely diversified economy. The most diversified economy the world has ever seen. Our economy wasn’t built on Tinder apps or “uber” taxi drivers grinding out tiny fares.

    Also, everyone overrates their hometown or current town. There is frequently bias to what one knows. Seattle and Washington isn’t in the same league as San Fran and California. Texas has blown by Washington in the pecking order, and I doubt it was ever behind them. Wackos in Washington and especially Seattle are doing their best to make the city and state unattractive for business. Seattle is several years into decline and pushing away investment – thus the east side has blown up. It will be too late when Seattle notices the damage and trendlines. Most places wackos are in the minority, not here. In fact Washington seems to have a surplus of prudes on the left and right. I still can’t drink a cocktail at a concert unless I’m behind a fence and I can’t have a beer at a UW game unless I’m in a cave, behind a fence.

    As for AI, Pittsburgh has always been a leader in this. We are still in the R&D stage (probably another 20 years) not in the deploy stage and we don’t know how or where it gets deployed first just yet.

    There is plenty of evidence young people are flocking to more affordable cities. The worst decision a younger person can make is live in an expensive city for a long time before reaching 35, when there are dozens of other options and plenty of opportunity and there are plenty of options and opportunities and a higher quality of life.

    The cost of living gap and RE price gap has never been higher between the aforementioned “tech” cities and other cities, this gap will not remain this large. Because people are already choosing other cities more frequently than they did in the recent past. It takes time for migration to occur, but it is happening.

    I remain surprised how the business culture in Seattle isn’t as entrepreneurial as I assumed. Perhaps this links to the fact Seattle lacks an abundance of top colleges and universities.

    Seattle will do well in the future but it’s not that special. It’s good. People and businesses have so many options in the USA. No business has to choose this place – it would be better for all of us if we acted like it. Especially the wackos in Seattle government.

  166. 1416
    biliruben says:

    WAPTUG.

    The Wackos and Prudes Theory of Urban Growth.

    I think I just lost 5 IQ points just reading that.

  167. 1417
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1390
    Seems like a good opportunity to buy Seattle real estate before we reach a deal with China and the Chinese start buying in Seattle again forcing prices up.

  168. 1418
    Lulu says:

    RE: Erik @ 1393
    Hongkong peopel e and Taiwanese if you count them as Chinese are coming in waves soon. I heard a flat in HK costs 1.0mil USD.

  169. 1419
    N says:

    @Erik – Do you realize the Chinese capital controls had nothing to do with trade and started well before? Your statement doesn’t hold much logic.

  170. 1420
    Jiststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1393
    Erik, the Seattle real estate market started softening not long after China started imposing capital controls (a few years or so ago) so that it was much harder for people to pull money out of the country.

    This is a very different issue than a potential trade deal.

    To the other point, I had wondered if money might start coming from Hong Kong et al. Vancouver BC would be a good indicator of that, given precedent and cultural ties. Some rumblings a while back that never amounted to any follow up articles.

    And, in any case, no way that money could make up for the lost inflow from China.

    Regards

  171. 1421
    Lulu says:

    By N @ 1395:

    @Erik – Do you realize the Chinese capital controls had nothing to do with trade and started well before? Your statement doesn’t hold much logic.

    Seattle is a port city. A lot of merchant to/from Asia go througth Seattle, Tacoma. Frequent traffic jam on I-5 is caused by these container wheelers. Wasthington State GDP largely depend on trade with Asia.

  172. 1422
    N says:

    @JustStoppedBy1390 – What’s more interesting than the drop to 10% for Seattle is that just about every major city on the list has dropped double digits (%) YOY. Certainly not local to Seattle, from SF to Atlanta to well all major metros. Portland from 30% to 6%. San Jose from 41% to 11%. Sac from 44% to 5%.

  173. 1423
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1394
    Yay!!!

  174. 1424
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1396

    I can see where there might be some confusion about the capital controls, but they have nothing to do with normal trade.

    Here is a pretty good article about the impact of the capital controls on real estate purchasing using money from China:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/capital-controls-weigh-on-chinese-overseas-property-investors-survey.html

    N, I know that Seattle had been the number one place of interest for Chinese homebuyers for a while, but I also have a theory that other coastal cities in particular were impacted by the same kind of capital flight from China.

    Regards

  175. 1425

    RE: don @ 1389
    I Found the URL, it Came From India in 2017

    http://www.idfcinstitute.org/knowledge/publications/op-eds/why-are-so-many-houses-vacant/

    Low listings and 12% vacant, so it is possible to suck the supply down to nothing [with high prices I assume] and still can’t sell ’em anyway, assuming the like India anomaly applies to Seattle too, with its high % of foreign nationals from India working at MSFT H-1B jobs lately? Comments or other reason?

  176. 1426

    RE: N @ 1397
    The Per Capita Income On the West Coast Sucks, when Mixed With High RE Prices, Ask LA’s Disney Corporation

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/disney-sued-by-labor-union-for-failing-to-pay-living-wage-employees-have-to-live-in-their-cars

    Disney is corrupt and slime [MSFT too?], they hire H-1Bs and fire skilled legal citizens that trained them. Its that simple and its illegal too. how would you like being forced to sleep in your car because of the high rents?

  177. 1427

    RE: Erik @ 1393
    Hey Erik I Love Your Rosey the Riveter Style of Buying RE in Seattle

    You put your Manufacturing Engineering boxing gloves on, lift weights and rule lots of the machines at the Gym too? Squeeze those 16″ biceps, show some tough muscle…LOL

    Wait until you retire early on the millions you can stash away, then you’ll find out [especially as you become an “empty nester” and “Baby Baron Erik” takes over the Family Flipping Business…you trained him well…LOL] you can save more retired than paying for family expenses off your working pay now. Its about $2-3K/mo elbow room you don’t have now….factor that in to your retirement planning. It surprised me it was that big, but I guess family expenses add up…LOL

  178. 1428
    David says:

    3+ months since a blog post was made. Can this be considered a true blog?

  179. 1429
    Lulu says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1399
    Many people’s life depend on trade. Washington export a lot of apples, airplanes and MS software. That alone is the piller of Washington economy. Foreign buyer is a factor but very small compare to the big economy.

  180. 1430
    Justme says:

    Only about 1/4 of King County,WA (Seattle+burbs) homes for sale actually are under contract as of Nov end. But the real-estate sell-side propagandists want you to believe there is a shortage of product for sale. There is no shortage. And prices peaked in May 2018. #propagandabusting

    Graph at
    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1204830744637370368

  181. 1431
    Lulu says:

    RE: Justme @ 1405
    there is a shadow buyers populations. they either renters or basement sharing young folks who can’t afford to buy or rent. they will come out one they see there is no hope to grab a piece of real estate for cheap. The supply side is normal. It is true Seattle housing is peaked in 2018 . We are going to have nominal appreciation of 1.5-2% to beat the inflation. It is a 10 year cycle starting 2009 low to 2019 high. We could see a 10% correction if recession hits. But after that, there will be another 7-10 year housing cycle with 50%-80% up potential by year 2030. Lets’s see.

  182. 1432
    Justme says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1406

    Shadow buyers? LOL. I think maybe more sellers coming out of the shadows. As you said, we shall see.

  183. 1433
    Bumble says:

    By Justme @ 1405:

    Only about 1/4 of King County,WA (Seattle+burbs) homes for sale actually are under contract as of Nov end. But the real-estate sell-side propagandists want you to believe there is a shortage of product for sale. There is no shortage. And prices peaked in May 2018. #propagandabusting

    Is 1/4 bullish or bearish? Don’t you need to compare that data with prior years for the numbers to have meaning?

    Your remarks are about Nov data, but your linked graph appears to end with Oct numbers.

    And your own graph shows that pending sales are up-year-over year (Oct to Oct), and inventory is down. Isn’t that bullish? Your comments seem divorced from your own data. Those “real-estate sales-side propagandists” appear to have good reason to say that supply is constricting. It is.

  184. 1434
    Justme says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1408

    1/4 is bearish for sure.

    The rest of your remarks are based on a misreading the graph. I think. Check carefully what you read off the graph is really correct and/or really there.

  185. 1435
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 1395
    You incorrectly have a low opinion of me. I can tell from your comments. Of course I knew that clown.

  186. 1436
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justme @ 1405

    Where is this data from?
    Who compiled it?
    What do the bars represent?
    How does it mesh with (or contradict) the figures that have come from the NWMLS?
    Why does it have any significance that we should take it seriously?

  187. 1437
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1402
    I need to own 10 rental units free and clear before I retire. I’d like to be done in my 40’s, which I think is totally possible. I got the ball rolling too late to be done in my 30’s.

  188. 1438
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 1405

    I accidentally deleted the original tweet when trying to delete a duplicate retweet. Here is the original, re-created.

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1204895004100984832

    Only about 1/4 of King County,WA (Seattle+burbs) homes for sale actually are under contract as of Nov end. But the real-estate sell-side propagandists want you to believe there is a shortage of product for sale. There is no shortage. And prices peaked in May 2018. #propagandabusting

    Data is screenshot from NWMLS.

  189. 1439
    Justme says:

    RE: Justme @ 1413

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1204895634743934976

    King County/WA (Seattle+burbs): Was the November uptick in closed sales and median price just a tax-driven fluke? Some people trying to buy/sell the more expensive houses before the WA state excise tax (transfer tax) becomes progressive on Jan 1? #YESINDEED

  190. 1440
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1411

    >>Where is this data from?

    Funny you should ask: The data is a screenshot of NWMLS.

    >>What do the bars represent?

    Click on the graph to see the legend: active and pending

    >>Why does it have any significance that we should take it seriously?

    Significance? Well, duh. Most people can see that the Nov pendings dropped disproportionally relative to inventory. Reason? The market isn’t hot. The Nov CLOSING uptick likely just due to some tax avoidance manuevering before Jan 2020. See my other post and tweet on that topic.

    Not expecting Deerhawke to accept the bad news for the bubble-mongers, but really…

  191. 1441
    whatsmyname says:

    New listings down 43% MOM and down 21% YOY
    Total listings down 28% MOM and down 36% YOY
    Pending sales down 19% MOM and up 9% YOY
    Closed sales down 9% MOM and up 12% YOY
    Median price up, but less than 1% MOM and up 3% YOY

    It took a week, but when the metrics are all going the wrong way, Justme will find a way to isolate and graph some new tertiary relationship. Would it be unfair to mention that Tim’s chart shows pending sales have declined every November of the 20 Novembers on record?

  192. 1442
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1416 – It’s too bad Tim doesn’t update those charts. This November’s decline in pending sales would get nicely mixed up in the 2012 to 2015 grouping.

  193. 1443
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1416 – Mortgage rate is about 1.1% lower YoY. Prices barely move. So monthly interest payment/burden is approximately 23% lower than last year. Hmm… buyers couldn’t afford last year’s mortgage and still can’t! Of course it is a (strong) market subsidized by FED’s low interest rate policy LOL. (All powerful FED also sets the Repo rate!)

    Enjoy elevated prices while low mortgage rates last. Or look out below when rates go up.

  194. 1444
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1346
    RE: whatsmyname @ 1416

    I think you two ought to get together and figure out why your numbers do not match up. The discrepancy seems to be primary, not tertiary, to reuse WMN pretentious word of the day.

    The graph *I* posted is for all residential properties in King County, source NWMLS on Nov 27, the day before Thanksgiving day. Month end was Sat Nov 30. Not many new listings on Thu-Fri-Sat of that holiday weekend. Maybe a few pendings, a few closings, but not many I think. You can see the low activity for yourselves by studying Tim’s hourly numbers, with his redfin-based SFH changing 2580 to 2529 from wed midnight to sat midnight.

    If someone has NWMLS access they can generate the same graph as of Nov 30 and post it. It ain’t against the law. The REIC just likes to pretend that it is.

  195. 1445
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1418 – The market was declining last November (I said so myself last year). That’s not the case now.

    RE: Justme @ 1419 – My numbers come from the Res Only King County Breakouts for October and November of this year, with some MTM percentages being calculated by simple division. I am not quibbling with the accuracy of anyone’s numbers. I’m saying the number relationship you have come up with is of doubtful relevance or impact in the market.

  196. 1446
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 1405
    You’ve done a bad thing. Some of the people on here that don’t understand real estate(Sfrz, Eastsider, Kenmoron, the guy going from open house to open house to judge the market hotness, etc.) from buying at the December 2019 bottom of the Seattle housing market. Now they are probably priced out just like you are. Not very nice. You pulled them down to your level. Have fun working until your 65.

  197. 1447

    Tip Your Mugs of Yuban, Time to Read the Condensed Brief:

    “…After the first Boeing 737 MAX went down, the FAA saw a high risk of future crashes but let the planes keep flying. The revelation in Congress yesterday drew urgent questions about why the MAX wasn’t grounded before the second deadly crash. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines, hit hard by the grounding, will share big bucks from a Boeing settlement with its workers…”

    SWE’s take: Southwest got a MAX 8 Christmas Bonuses from Boeing? Did Boeing workers get “misbehavior” coal instead?

    “…Security will be beefed up at the downtown courthouse after the Metropolitan King County Council approved an emergency $600,000 in funding. “Nothing was more effective than looking in the faces of those men and women who have been assaulted just for coming to work,” one council member said after this week’s testimony. But there are deeper issues to address, others say….”

    SWE’s take: Since when do the care about us? They just wanted to get their meat hooks on the $600,000….LOL

    “…”Someone in your corner”: Tayonna Gaunt, 22, an alumna of foster care, doesn’t have the family and friends that most young adults can tap to help with housing, a car purchase or other basics of adulting. But she does have Lauren Ross, who’s been coaching her in a Treehouse program. It’s one of the organizations that benefit from readers’ generosity to The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy. Here’s how to donate…”

    SWE’s take: Passing the homeless can for coins for another 22 YO that has the income for a tent, but no roof? Treehouse program? Is that where they want to stick the homeless, with the birds and squirrels?

    “…A real-estate firm’s CEO gave his workers a “life-changing” gift: a total of $10 million in bonuses. Each worker got an average $50,000 on top of the company’s regular year-end bonus. “I steer the boat but they are the ones that run the boat,” Edward St. John said. Video from the announcement shows his shocked employees crying and embracing….”

    SWE’s take: Boeing workers get no Christmas bonuses this year?

    “…Four teenagers have been arrested after authorities say they beat a legally blind, transgender woman who had pepper-sprayed them as she exited a Metro bus in Tukwila…”

    SWE’s Take: We get a daily violence episode in Seattle almost daily to cheer us up? At least the victim was just blinded and not killed…

    And good news Bubbleheads too….the China Deal is being wrapped up today? Stocks are sky rocketing Seattle Times, why didn’t you report this?

  198. 1448
    Deerhawke says:

    By whatsmyname @ 1420:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1418 – The market was declining last November (I said so myself last year). That’s not the case now.

    RE: Justme @ 1419 – My numbers come from the Res Only King County Breakouts for October and November of this year, with some MTM percentages being calculated by simple division. I am not quibbling with the accuracy of anyone’s numbers. I’m saying the number relationship you have come up with is of doubtful relevance or impact in the market.

    For those who want to analyze the basic data themselves, here is where to find it:

    Go to NWMLS.com
    Click on Latest Press Release
    Click on Housing Market Statistics
    Click on Current King County Breakouts
    Scroll down to page 2 Res Only (residential only)

    New ones come on between the 5th and the 8th every month. But if you want to compare them, make sure to print them out and file them. The new ones replace the old ones every month and the old ones then become unavailable.

  199. 1449

    RE: Erik @ 1412
    Hey, You’re at Least 80% There

    I got set back big in 1994, after my divorce [90% divorce rate for Seattle families with a severely disabled child BTW]…set me back 15 years on my retirement planning, or I could have been lucky and free and retired by 47 too….I just gambled more risky [100% of 401K type investments in stocks alone from 2001 to 2015]….then the “real” Seattle area “documented” high wage manufacturing engineering went “stealth” down the toilet in Seattle about 2000 too [Boeing moved Auburn Fabrication to Japan]. The Quantitative Easing fueled my portfolio, so although I hated QE, I couldn’t fight it, so took advantage of it, most of the other investors got scared and didn’t take advantage of it instead. Never follow the lemmings over the “dinky savings interest” cliff….LOL…retired early by 62 anyway….most of my co-workers went with “dinky interest” safe savings and have only a small fraction of what I accumulated. Its amazing that a 10% growth over like 5 years can double your portfolio size and I can tell you now, the strategy works.

    BTW, don’t feel bad almost all the Buffets lost money along the way, but they took big risks and made lots more too ;-)

    Flex those manufacturing engineering muscles Erik, get “on-the job ME experience” and run down the lazy “wimp types” doing service “low skilled” slave wages with no pensions and trying to lie about it…LOL….sounds like a lot these same lemmings are the ones that can understand the impeachment hearings nonsense and it makes sense to them anyway? LOL…they invest the same way.

  200. 1450
    Deerhawke says:

    By Justme @ 1419:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1346
    RE: whatsmyname @ 1416

    I think you two ought to get together and figure out why your numbers do not match up. The discrepancy seems to be primary, not tertiary, to reuse WMN pretentious word of the day.

    Actually there is NO substantive difference between the stats that Whatsmyname posted in 1416 above and the ones I posted in 1346 above. Whatsmyname rounds to the nearest whole number while I rounded to the nearest 1 or 2 digits after the decimal point.

    I doubt you really need me to explain rounding to you, do you?

    This is you once again trying to divert people’s attention away from the stats and the facts. It is fundamentally intellectually dishonest.

    You are not the propaganda buster. You are the propagandist.

  201. 1451
    Deerhawke says:

    For those who have been claiming that the Fed was going to suddenly raise rates causing real estate prices to drop, this quick synopsis of The Fed Chair’s comments yesterday. From today’s Seattle Times Business Section.

    Fed Stickswith Rate Targets

    Chairman Jerome Powell made clear Wednesday that the Federal reserve is prepared to keep its benchmark interest rate very low through at least next year — and possibly longer.

    Fueling that expectation is the growing belief of Fed officials that inflation will remain tame even as the economy keeps growing modestly and the job market remains solid. The lowest unemployment rate in a half-century — 3.5% — won’t necessarily fan high inflation as it might have in the past, Powell suggested at a news conference.

    On Wednesday, the Fed left its key short-term rate in a low range of 1.5% to 1.75% after having reduced it three times this year. Powell had previously characterized those rate cuts as “insurance” that would offset the drags from the u.s.-china trade war and global slowdown. but Wednesday, he suggested that the Fed wouldn’t likely reverse those cuts for the foreseeable future.

  202. 1452
    BacktoBasics says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1426:

    For those who have been claiming that the Fed was going to suddenly raise rates causing real estate prices to drop, this quick synopsis of The Fed Chair’s comments yesterday. From today’s Seattle Times Business Section.

    Fed Stickswith Rate Targets

    Chairman Jerome Powell made clear Wednesday that the Federal reserve is prepared to keep its benchmark interest rate very low through at least next year — and possibly longer.

    Fueling that expectation is the growing belief of Fed officials that inflation will remain tame even as the economy keeps growing modestly and the job market remains solid. The lowest unemployment rate in a half-century — 3.5% — won’t necessarily fan high inflation as it might have in the past, Powell suggested at a news conference.

    On Wednesday, the Fed left its key short-term rate in a low range of 1.5% to 1.75% after having reduced it three times this year. Powell had previously characterized those rate cuts as “insurance” that would offset the drags from the u.s.-china trade war and global slowdown. but Wednesday, he suggested that the Fed wouldn’t likely reverse those cuts for the foreseeable future.

    Then when recession hit in 2021, Fed is going to lower the rate to zero or even “-“. Mortgage will drop from current 3.5% to 2.0% for 30 year fixed. When it happens, current home owners could refinance again to improve their cash flow.

  203. 1453
    Any says:

    Powell has said he won’t go to negative rates, that’s probably not happening anytime soon. 2% is also probably a stretch for the near future. Likely will happen someday, but who knows when.

    It does seem extremely unlikely that rates would go up much anytime soon. The expansion is largely debt-funded right now, and rising rates just makes servicing the debt that much more expensive. The FED wants to keep rates down around here for a while for sure…

  204. 1454
    Eastsider says:

    People put too much faith in the FED. What did they say about interest rates before they abruptly lowered them this year? LOL.

    Anyway, a day after Chairman Powell’s news conference, 10yr treasury yield went from 1.8% to 1.895% as of this moment. That’s an increase of 5.28% in one day. Haha.

    If you really know about future interest rate movement, you should be trading bonds, not building/flipping homes. Just sayin’

  205. 1455
    Lulu says:

    As long as there is no rate shock and major recession in the region, Seattle bubble will coast along with 3-4% appreciation which slightly outstrip the inflation rate of 2%. We will see.

  206. 1456
    Erik says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 1427
    That’s what I’m waiting for, except I want the market to crash 2023 in a perfect world. If anyone can artificially pump up our economy, it’s trump. If he gets voted in for another term, I believe he’ll be able to prop up the economy. If there is no other options left, he will find a way to pump up the economy until he leaves office.

  207. 1457
    Juststoppedby says:

    Seems to me that the redfin bidding numbers are a pretty good indicator of the strength of the market.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/november-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/

    I’m not sure why those get overlooked so much in relation to some of the other analyses, which can get really complicated really fast.

    Seattle had been up to 82% with >1 bidder, now it’s hanging out around 10%.

    Seems to me there’s a lot of information in that simple statistic.

  208. 1458
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1426 – Of course there is out of control inflation – education, healthcare, autos, rent and homes.

  209. 1459
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1432

    We covered this topic before Thanksgiving. You might want to go back and reread those comments.

    I think that what the article says is true — the houses that check all the boxes (and are properly priced) are the ones that get multiple offers. But what I am also seeing right now is an indication of a tightening inventory situation.

    Buyers are coming in with offers substantially under asking price and the sellers counter at full price or quite close to it. Then the buyer barks at their agent, goes out and looks at other properties again, realizes that some have sold, grumbles about how this market is unfair, then agrees to the buyer’s terms.

    You may not see a multiple offer situation, but the sellers are increasingly feeling confident enough to wait for their price.

  210. 1460
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1434:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1432
    Buyers are coming in with offers substantially under asking price and the sellers counter at full price or quite close to it. Then the buyer barks at their agent, goes out and looks at other properties again, realizes that some have sold, grumbles about how this market is unfair, then agrees to the buyer’s terms.

    If Ardell says so, I would be incline to believe. Otherwise, you are just making it up.

  211. 1461
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1434
    It seems like if the buyers were in such a weak position I wouldn’t keep on seeing so many of the areas around Lake Washington decline.

    I prefer maps to the listing service tables so I like the articles in the Seattle times…

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/sales-slow-for-pricey-homes-in-the-seattle-area-but-modestly-priced-houses-are-still-hot/

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-see-largest-year-over-year-jump-in-12-months/

    I have a theory that, without the infusion of home buyers from China to prop up the market, the area is running out of people who can afford $4-5K (or more) in monthly housing expense.

    And as far as barking buyers go, for the only two recent home transactions that I know of, the buyers had a ton of leverage. While the home price stayed close to the sellers’ asking price, the sellers either gave up a ton of money for renovations, or had been willing to but lucked out when the buyer didn’t push as hard as they feared.

    Much different dynamic from the heyday with multiple bids and people foregoing inspections and everything else.

    Regards

  212. 1462

    RE: Eastsider @ 1435

    I took a quick peek at 98052 and I must say I was a bit surprised. Looking at 6 months of sales, 29 of the first 50 sold at or above asking price. I switched to the most recent 60 days and 32 of the first 50 sold at or above asking and 28 of the remaining 38 sold at or above asking. Of the smaller % that didn’t sell at or above asking, many sold at just a small amount less than asking.

    I think it’s safe to say that at or above asking is either multiple offers or fear that there will be multiple offers. It seems to back up what Deerhawke was saying except merely showing well and priced right…I would add and the right product in the right place. The market is not too forgiving of extreme or even moderate weakness of a property. But low inventory does seem to be showing in the results.

    I have a closing on Monday and one on Wednesday but should have a bit of time to run some stats after that. I can’t do County wide as SP%LP does not seem to be a search field. It’s an auto generated field. I’ll try to come up with another way to search that on a broader basis. But all I can find at the moment is eyeballing each and every one on a per zip code basis max 50 at a time.

    I also don’t think the stats I gave tell the whole story because maybe only the best of the best are selling, and those are selling at or above asking at a high %. At least part of the story has to be in the ones that are not selling at all, because those results in the first paragraph look a little too good to be true and quite surprising. But to answer you question, does match what Deerhawke said.

    Just had a thought and checked # of Actives in the same area and same criteria as those 88 sold and there are only 29 for sale. 10 of those are newer listings of 0 to 8 days. So no. Not a big story in the “not sold”, so the market looks a lot more robust than expected for this time of year.

    Is that 10% selling at or above asking in multiple offers number that is floating around in the comments only the result of a specific company’s offers? Maybe their buyers aren’t in the main game?

    I don’t work in weaker markets, so I don’t have a handle on those, but I do see my fair share of weak product in the prime markets and those are no longer “hot”…but still sellable.

    Data in this post not compiled, verified or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  213. 1463
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1437 – Thanks for the update. No doubt some segments of the market are strong. I know of a recent transaction that closed at 5% below asking price. But that property is in the high end of the market. The data may show very different market conditions in low, mid, and high tiers. Perhaps majority of the multiple bids are occurring at the lower end and none at the high end. And I strongly suspect that is the case.

  214. 1464
    Brianna says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1437

    Some of the listings I have followed that have sold, and sold for more than asking, seems like they could have been full priced offers plus closing costs. When I see a listing close for over $10k more than asking, most likely it was bid up.

  215. 1465

    Grab Your Yuban and Read the Condensed Seattle Times Brief, It Beats Impeachment Koolaid

    “… BREAKING: The House Judiciary Committee this morning approved articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump. Check back for updates. The historic votes were abruptly postponed late last night, moments before they were expected to take place. More:

    What’s next: Here’s how a Senate trial will work if the House impeaches Trump, as expected.
    The Supreme Court could add an explosive new dynamic to the impeachment fight with a decision that it’s poised to make as soon as today.
    Will impeaching presidents be the new normal in our polarized era?…”

    SWE’s Take: From The Hill, https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/judicial/465760-the-impeachment-controversy-drags-supreme-court-into-the

    “…But President Trump’s threat to try to slow down or stop impeachment in the courts raises the possibility that the Supreme Court may be forced to intervene, overshadowing the cases on their calendar. If that happens, the Supreme Court would most likely have to explore the scope of executive privilege, the reach of the president’s executive power, or issues related to Congress’ impeachment procedures.

    President Trump may attempt to prevent executive officers and others from testifying before Congress about internal discussions before or after the call between himself and the Ukrainian president based on a claim of executive privilege. That’s not unlikely, given that the State Department is already blocking some officials from testifying…”

    “…After a topless dancer gave lap dances at a Seattle conference on homelessness, the director of King County’s coordinating agency has been placed on leave. The performer also kissed attendees, according to one surprised staffer who attended….”

    SWE’s take: Evil King County politicians can be generally corrupt and cares less about homelessness? They probably got like 12 YO “illegal alien” sex slaves from the human traffickers reported days ago in the Seattle Times?

    “…In a stark rebuke, the FAA’s chief told Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to back off predictions about an imminent return to service for the 737 MAX. The jet is unlikely to be cleared before mid-February, sources say. Qantas dealt Boeing another blow by picking Airbus for its ultra-long-range aircraft. In better news for Boeing, its crew capsule has a launch date soon for its first International Space Station jaunt…”

    SWE’s take: The FAA isn’t needed when the Manufacturing Engineering Drawings for parts and assemblies are in Japanese. The FAA is fighting for their very jobs and that creates a BIG ENEMY for Boeing, the US Government agencies. What a mess.

    “… Children and senior citizens use food banks the most, making up more than 50% of clients. But one in nine local residents deals with hunger. For food bank client and volunteer Ruth, Social Security wasn’t enough….”

    SWE’s take: Legal citizen disabled that cannot work still can use the food banks under Trump’s new rules.

    “…A Renton police sergeant fatally shot a man yesterday. Police said the man pulled out what appeared to be a shotgun after the officer approached him about a possible liquor violation…”

    SWE’s take: We see daily grisly murders in inner city Detroit violence too,the same scenario at simultaneously homeless crime ridden Seattle, with its organized crime King County mob bosses at “phony” sex conferences for homelessness now too IOWs. Ya see why I fear driving around lately?

    Some good news: IMO, its win/win on impeachment for SWE, I support more campaign loot to Trump and better pro-Trump poll numbers, both are going through the roof recently with the Impeachment Inquiry. I warn and tell the stupid Dems this and I guess the lemmings jumping over the cliff can’t read the recent polls…LOL…Americans simply hate impeachments…period.

  216. 1466
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1438

    Sell price 5% under asking is pretty normal. it is a balanced market. Over bidding above asking is the past. However, expecting a big drop in Seattle at current economical situation is not likely. Who knows what price will be tomorrow. Let’s see.

  217. 1467

    RE: Eastsider @ 1438

    Not the case Eastsider since I only used 98052 and there is no real lower end there plus to get to 28 of 38 in that last segment, virtually all have to be higher on on that 2nd page of data.

    Not sure if you can see this as I’ve just started putting my stats up here and I’m not sure if only I can see them, but you can see the breakdown of price in 98052 as of yesterday morning on a 12 month rolling basis. I use 98052 as that is actually the more moderate market compared to 98033 and 98004 nearby. There is some high end, but not nearly as many as there are in 98033 and 98004. Haven’t run those stats yet, but I think you’ll agree after looking at the numbers.

    https://www.quora.com/q/npvyjuicwpmfhnvl?sort=recent

    Not sure whether or not I am going to continue posting my data there as I can’t see a way to link directly to one data set. But since there is only one there at present, you should be able to see it in that link. The mainstream of that market is $600,000 to $1,300,000 with the highest segment in the $700,000 to $900,000 range. I don’t think you are calling that “lower end” though it is the lower end of that one zip code.

    I was a bit surprised that there were only 2 sales under $500,000 of 3 bedroom+ properties and both were condos. But as you can see, the majority if not all of the properties…and I did all of them sold in the last 60 days last night, are not “lower end”.

  218. 1468
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1437

    Thanks for the information Ardell. Thorough, analytical and on-point as always.

    Just to add a bit more perspective. Sometimes a discounted price is really the full price.

    In early April we had a house coming on the market in 705. This one really checked all the boxes. Great location, really pleasing architecture, high walk score, good views, plus all the things sophisticated buyers want these days. The question was pricing strategy in a weak-ish market. The agent is very experienced. She said that every transaction she had seen with a strong product still ended up with a discount of about 2%. She recommended marking the house up to mark it down.

    Worked exactly as planned. Sold in a week all cash with a 30-day close. It shows up in the records as having sold at a 2% discount off asking price but really sold at full price. So sometimes even good data doesn’t tell the whole story.

  219. 1469

    RE: Brianna @ 1439

    That’s a good point Brianna, but likely you are looking at a different market where that is more common. I’ll take another peek in the light of day, but many were large bid ups and even the smaller bid ups were obviously “tie breakers” and not stacked costs. But yes, you are correct, and that may be the case where you are seeing the bid ups. If you give me that zip code I’ll take a peek and see. But in the segment I used, no. Not a large factor.

    Honestly when Deerhawke said it I felt the same was as Eastsider. That’s why I always double check my perception against real facts and data.

  220. 1470
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1444

    I try to call them like I see them, but I don’t expect people to take my views as received truth. I am always glad to be fact checked, especially by someone with access to superior/updated data and the training to analyze it. Being fact-checked by Ardell is something I view as a favor.

    People in my world who are out of touch with the market get a rude comeuppance.

  221. 1471
    richard says:

    overpriced home sold at 10k below asking price may equal to 20% over a more reasonably asking price in final sold price. you see my point? it is meaningless to predict housing based on bidding war phenomena in this overpriced market. real meaningful question is wether or not there will be a recession in 2020. given fed still has 1.5% to cut and 2 or 3 trillon QE dollars to spray,i wont hold my breath for an iminent recession.
    spend my peaceful xmas in my rental house then.

  222. 1472

    RE News From Reuters on Boeing MAX 8, Grab Your Mug of Yuban

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/faa-administration-chief-meeting-boeing-172112484.html?fr=yset_ff_syc_hp

    SWE’s take: The MAX 8 is making a good case to eliminate the useless FAA engineering analysis, those FAA folks will kick, scream and struggle to hold on to their high paying [$160IK/yr avg] jobs with pensions. Renton employs a 3 story building full of ’em, for now.

    Good News from our Countries’ Founding Fathers:

    “…”If the present Congress errs in too much talking, how can it be otherwise in a body to which the people send 150 lawyers, whose trade it is to question everything, yield nothing, & talk by the hour? That 150 lawyers should do business together ought not to be expected.” —Thomas Jefferson (1821)…”

    SWE’s take: The first thing I look for is credentials when I vote, I’ve been totally burned on self-serving greedy politician attorneys….so avoid those candidates for that reason alone. I prefer engineers and farmers..LOL

    “If the present Congress errs in too much talking, how can it be otherwise in a body to which the people send 150 lawyers, whose trade it is to question everything, yield nothing, & talk by the hour? That 150 lawyers should do business together ought not to be expected.” —Thomas Jefferson (1821)

  223. 1473
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1438 – I decided to check out high end sales this morning ($1.5m+ homes in Seattle in the past 30 days). Almost all closed sales were below original asking prices and many were 10% under! There is no bidding war there. The current lower end boom is clearly a result of FED’s low rate policy. We shall see what happens when rates move back up. Actually we saw what happened a year ago ;)

  224. 1474

    Speaking of Dinky Interest Investments Compared to the Stock Market

    Yeah, there could be an equity market crash like 2007…but 10% avg growth in equities beats flat price real estate hand down…do the math yourself.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/2020-housing-market-what-to-expect-154531666.html

  225. 1475
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1448

    I only track high-end new construction in Seattle’s 705, 710, and 390 areas. Those are areas where I currently have projects.

    I believe there are fewer new SF builds than two years ago. Roughly a quarter of the new SF homes are sold presale by the active presale agents in the area. They are pre-sold because the buyer is given a small discount and gets the opportunity to customize a bit and avoids a multiple offer situation.

    Most go on and off the market fairly quickly at asking price or a slight discount. As I have mentioned before, some are marked up so they can be marked down. This makes everyone feel like a winner.

    About 10% have some kind of problem (new builder, oddball floorplan, mixed design message, wrong house for the lot/neighborhood, mis-priced, etc.) that means that they will have to go beyond a courtesy discount. They will get beaten up on pricing.

    When you get new construction with all of the above problems (new builder + oddball floorplan + mixed design message + wrong house for the lot/neighborhood + mis-priced, etc.), it can end up selling for a good deal more than 10% off asking price.

    Redfin does not show the pricing for the full listing history, but each of these houses was on and off the market for quite a while and took a 20% or larger haircut. The listing agent likely took a hit on theIr commission too.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2110-N-61st-St-98103/home/304873

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6843-25th-Ave-NE-98115/home/310183

    However, if you focus on the exceptions because you want to believe a certain permabear narrative, you might miss the larger message of the market.

  226. 1476
    Blurtman says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1449:

    Speaking of Dinky Interest Investments Compared to the Stock Market

    Yeah, there could be an equity market crash like 2007…but 10% avg growth in equities beats flat price real estate hand down…do the math yourself.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/2020-housing-market-what-to-expect-154531666.html

    Stories reported by the MSM are just so much pap. Recall the MSM (and Janet Yellen) misreporting unemployment by just looking at the UE rate, and not looking at the labor force participation rate. Same with inflation. We are supposed to believe that inflation is below the Fed’s 2% target rate, when the cost of healthcare, higher education, autos, homes and rent are out of control? It’s 24-7 Pravda, comrade.

  227. 1477
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1450 – My above observations apply to high end resale homes. I generally discount new construction sales because prices are opaque (e.g. throwing in closing cost credit to maintain prices, etc). That said, the September data for new construction median sale price in Seattle shows -12.9% YoY decline. This is the weakest high end market in about a decade. (Redfin data series start in 2012.)

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

  228. 1478
  229. 1479

    A Place for Homeless in San Francisco

    One problem, its an island with poisoned with low level radioactivity…

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/san-franciscos-housing-market-dire-143700479.html

  230. 1480

    RE: Blurtman @ 1451
    Yes Blurtman

    Its like the U3 unemployment rate, an approximation and may not even be close…but the trending of even bad data means something, especially if its generally trending negative. Even the average income per household data is a joke, when you skew out the handful of billionaires from the avg pay, but even this general data mix means something trending downward…it is.

    Its not like Tarot Cards or Psychics to use bad data, if you watch/use it for YOY trending only, not specific detailed answers, its toilet bowl allegations then.

  231. 1481

    RE: Erik @ 1453
    Erik, I With Your General Assessment Based on History Assumptions of Seattle

    That URL you referenced may be an anomalous NAR source, but scroll down to the Zillow linear graph….prices are shown negative YOY trending through 2020 and beyond….not going up at all…

    Maybe the news has gotten so fake now….personal observations are better than recommendations from the RE professionals? Good job Erik, don’t follow the lemmings over the “fake trending” cliff if it doesn’t fit your”specific” business model using actual clients. IMO, any market can be a gold mine [even with limited clients] if you handle the exceptions to your advantage. Fore closures are the same conundrum, they occur even during good times in high rates too.

  232. 1482

    Lift Your Yuban Mug, Clink it Together With the Other Bubbleheads, its Time for the Seattle Times Sunday Brief:

    “…The accelerating melt is a global concern: Permafrost, which mostly lies in the northern reaches of the planet, is a vast carbon storehouse of frozen plants and animals that release greenhouse gases as they warm and decompose. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: The average temperature for that part of the world peaked out in 1940, it declined a bit and went back up in 2019 to 1930 temperatures…I’m a math major and would call that climate change data prediction trending based on fuzzy math theories of average Earth Temperatures…[they vary all over the world, cities centers get the hottest]…BTW, the CO2 was rising as the avg temperature went down after 1940 too….LOL

    “…IT BEGAN HUMBLY, as a small seed, nearly three decades ago, in the mind of a local wood and metal patternmaker. The germ of Jeff Carnevali’s idea — a round, elastomeric rubber ball, surrounded by a spring-loaded, double-armed metal clamp to form a grippy, orbital socket capable of mounting countless devices to solid surfaces — […] Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: IPhone and GPS car holders a Manufacturing Engineering replacement for Boeing? I bet the company hires just 5-10 packaging warehouse workers and the units are manufactured in China…LOL

    “…While it may lack the alpine grandeur of expensive hut systems, at just $15 per berth per night, the Mount Tahoma Trails Association’s homegrown huts are an undeniably charming grassroots labor of love. Read more. …”

    SWE’s take: What are they? Homeless tents in the freezing mountains with no cook stoves? Sounds fun, if you survive….

    Good News: The Garfield cartoon was amusing, did you read in the news lately, the Garfield creator is 67 and his “new” wife is 23….I hear they make a great couple too…they looked quite happy in their 2019 family Christmas photo too…LOL

  233. 1483
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1456
    Looked like fake news. Sometimes fake news works though and could put Seattle real estate on a year.

  234. 1484
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 1458
    Tear*, not year.

  235. 1485

    More Ambiguous Upside Down From Fake News? Or is this real raw data?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/u-mortgage-rates-were-rise-013655982.html

    I thought mortgage rates were going down because the federal chairman held rates steady this week? Apparently not, if this URL has its way? But alas, my locked box 401K type accounts are being transferred to [higher interest rates??] MM anyway, just pay the taxes owed in small payments, with far less bracket creep effect…money I didn’t really need piling up fast for quick fore closure wire transfers?

    Life is good no matter what? LOL

  236. 1486
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1452

    When I checked into some claims made on the basis of Redfin data a while back, I was not impressed. I think this is still in beta.

    But let’s assume it is valid data. What is it measuring?

    Inventory in Seattle neighborhoods is down 26.09% and prices are down 3.29%…? Something doesn’t add up there. Perhaps a lag effect— that is, at best, a partial explanation.

    But it is more likely that the bigger factor is the composition of sales. More townhouses and rowhouses and fewer true SF homes on full size lots. This is absolutely the case with new construction sales.

  237. 1487

    Grab Your Yuban and I’ll Share Some CNBC News:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/02/seattles-minimum-wage-hike-may-have-cut-wages-and-jobs-study-author.html

    Even the Jumbo Jacks went from $2.59 to $3.59 each with recent wage growth the last year…the Jack in the Box take out lines are recently getting shorter too, I observed in Kent…the raw data isn’t there, but based on employee shuffling [more cheaper new employees I see] I’d guess there’s been MASS layoffs of experienced worker at Seattle area restaurants with wage increases, higher menu prices too apparently…

    Good News: Dickies Barbecue outlets have a large smoked prime rib [roast size] with all the trimmings to order “boxed” for Christmas, serves 10….$10/plate for delicious prime rib steaks with all the sides included….skip the high paid restaurants and buy in bulk…

  238. 1488
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1461:

    Inventory in Seattle neighborhoods is down 26.09% and prices are down 3.29%…? Something doesn’t add up there. Perhaps a lag effect— that is, at best, a partial explanation.

    There is nothing contradictory about higher (YoY) sales and lower (YoY) prices. We saw that this year.

  239. 1489
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1461:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1452

    Inventory in Seattle neighborhoods is down 26.09% and prices are down 3.29%…? Something doesn’t add up there. Perhaps a lag effect— that is, at best, a partial explanation.

    But it is more likely that the bigger factor is the composition of sales.

    I honestly don’t follow this stuff closely enough to agree or disagree but, using the link below, it is striking to me how many of the recent sales have a relatively long time on the market:

    https://www.redfin.com/how-compete-score-works

    Enter in neighborhood or ZIP Code, like 98155 or 98115, and see what you think.

    Personally, I still tend to believe that we are seeing fewer home buyers who can afford upper six digit homes.

  240. 1490
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1464
    I have a rental in 98155, so I’m sorta familiar with that area. That area got hot in 2017, when I bought, because they announced busses would go from there to the Eastside. Then the city announced that light rail would be on 145th and i5. The excitement got me to be one of the people pushing prices up in that area. It’s a transitional area.

    Now some of the buzz has died down plus the December 2018 crash pushed down prices in transitional areas. From your link, I only saw a 3% decline in prices, which isn’t much to worry about. When light rail begins construction, I’d suspect another big bump in 98155.

    I’m not an expert on anything, that’s just what I think about that area. I’m not alarmed at all prices went down 3%. In fact, I’d say that’s pretty good considering the big December 2018 crash and how hot 98155 was before the crash.

  241. 1491
    uwp says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1464:

    https://www.redfin.com/how-compete-score-works

    Enter in neighborhood or ZIP Code, like 98155 or 98115, and see what you think.

    Like Deerhawke, I wonder how accurate this data is, especially when you start dialing into individual zip codes.

    I clicked through that link to see the “Compete Score” for 98103. The first two inputs for Redfin’s “proprietary” Compete Score are the number of competing offers, and the number of offers with waived contingencies. Right now there is 1 home for sale in 98103 that is listed by Redfin. If you go back 3 months, there have been a total of 12 homes sold by Redfin. Where are they going to get accurate data on “number of offers” or “waived contingencies?”

    Is that info shared on the MLS? Ardell?

  242. 1492
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1461

    It’s definitely about the townhouses. I did the numbers yesterday but keep getting a server error when trying to post since yesterday morning.

    Short version from my phone is prices are up 16% on new construction in Seattle on a price per sf basis.

    If my from phone comment here posts I’ll try to post the full comment from yesterday

  243. 1493

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1467

    So same Server Error if I try to post the detail from my phone. :( Briefly then:

    110 new construction Seattle units October + November 2018 have a median price of $790,000 but a price per sf of $456 due to the median size being 1,731 sf.

    209 new construction Seattle units October + November 2019 have a median price of $700,000 but a price per sf of $531 because the median size is 1,318 sf.

    So yes, median price is down but median size is down due to more townhouses and more in the South End where they are cheaper. Median price per sf is up.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated by Ardell and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  244. 1494

    RE: uwp @ 1466

    No. Number of offers is only privy to the agent for the seller and usually any agent who had an offer in the mix. We can of course see if there is an Inspection Contingency because, and you can as well if you look at the status in the detail. The “banner” will say “Pending” but in the detail it will say either Pending or Pending Inspection.

    When the Inspection is waived, we can call that “no contingencies” even if there are some less important ones that don’t have a right to cancel. The majority of the time, though not always, no Inspection Contingency means more than one offer OR a buyer submitted an offer as if there are multiple offers but asked the seller to respond before offers were due.

    OFTEN and even that “multiple offers own to 10%” they are ONLY talking about their offers and in the case of the 10% they were talking Nationally and not locally. So it’s pretty meaningless.

    As to general zip code stats, if I see an offer go straight to Pending without passing through Pending Inspection on a house on market for 7 days or less and then see it close above asking price…I call hat multiple offers as to net outcome, but don’t really know for sure if they had more than one. I just assume a buyer who offers over asking with no Inspection Contingency is either competing with multiple offers or jumping in front of the other offers because they are expected.

    When the costs are stacked you would see a price slightly over asking but longer days on market and the Inspection Contingency is not normally waived when the overage is about stacked costs.

    You have to make some basic assumptions when you are not the listing agent and don’t have an offer in on that house.

  245. 1495
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1469:

    RE: uwp @ 1466

    OFTEN and even that “multiple offers own to 10%” they are ONLY talking about their offers and in the case of the 10% they were talking Nationally and not locally. So it’s pretty meaningless.

    Hmm… Did you mean “DOWN to 10%”?

    If so, you can see by the chart in this link the Seattle (not National) #’s over time.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/november-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/

    Bidding wars dropped to 10%ish a long time ago, btw.

  246. 1496
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Erik @ 1465

    Eric, if you say there was a “crash” in December 2018 and then turn around and talk about prices being down by 3%, you show us that you don’t know what the word “crash” means or that you don’t have the slightest knowledge of economics or statistics.

    If you want to be taken seriously, use words and numbers precisely. Otherwise newcomers will think that a 12-year-old has wandered onto the site.

  247. 1497
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1470

    I agree. Just saying the quote I read said National

  248. 1498
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1470

    Juststoppedby, I think you are using buggy and incomplete Redfin figures to support buggy and incomplete Redfin figures. Redfin has every marketing reason in the world to want to look like they completely have their data act together, but they are just not credible. Give them a few years and we will see.

    Ardell, thanks for your insight and sharing what you know with us. I knew that there were fewer SF houses and more townhouses/rowhouses, but it is nice to know how quickly the composition of the market is changing. I see a lot of no-park 5-6 unit projects (2 bedroom 2 bath 950sf) on sites that would have been 3 unit townhouse projects with on-site parking even two years ago (3 bedrooms 2.5 Baths baths 1550 sf).

    So in a nutshell, prices are falling in Seattle. But values are falling faster.

  249. 1499

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1472

    Also, you do realize they are only talking about offers they are writing. Maybe people who choose an agent by a rebate they get are also less likely to make an offer on a house that is getting multiple offers? They are not talking about the market, only offers they are writing.

  250. 1500

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1472

    Also, you do realize they are only talking about offers they are writing. Maybe people who choose an agent by a rebate they get are also less likely to make an offer on a house that is getting multiple offers? They are not talking about the market, only offers they are writing.

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