NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,952 comments:

  1. 1501
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1473

    Buggy data? Incomplete?

    The redfin market data was just something I thought you might find Interesting because it seemed like there was an increasing number of older listings in the mix. Not trying to say it’s comprehensive or anything.

    Or maybe you were referring to the bidding war stuff?

    Seems like that has been pretty consistent… They’ve been doing this for about eight years now, so it’s not like they haven’t had a track record.

    And while they may not have the credibility of some of your tea leaf readings, companies like CNBC reference their statistics.

    Interesting how the bidding wars started to dry up when Chinese capital controls came into play.

    Coincidence? Probably not.

  2. 1502
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1474:

    Also, you do realize they are only talking about offers they are writing. Maybe people who choose an agent by a rebate they get are also less likely to make an offer on a house that is getting multiple offers? They are not talking about the market, only offers they are writing.

    Have you seen the chart? The percentage of Redfin offers that faced multiple offers was as high at 90%+ in the city of Seattle in 2017 and collapsed this year to sub 10%.

    Mind you, The Tim has been working on these reports and has published several articles on the subject.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/october-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars/

  3. 1503
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1477

    I think that 90% was San Jose according to the chart.

  4. 1504
    Blurtman says:

    Bummer.

    Boeing Halts 737 Max Production to Reduce Cash Burn; Suppliers Hit; Measurable Ding to GDP Expected
    Posted on December 17, 2019 by Yves Smith
    The lead story tonight at the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times is that Boeing has hit the pause button on manufacturing 737 Max planes, with its “infamous self-hijacking software MCAS,” in the words of Moe Tkacik.

    Recall that Boeing had been cheerily promising that the 737 Max would be approved to fly again as of various ever-retreating dates, with the latest being a public comment in November that it expected to deliver planes again potentially in December. Major buyers American Airlines and Southwest had signaled some skeptism by not scheduling a resumption of 737 Max service until March; American had just pushed that back to April.

    The FAA swiftly countered Boeing’s happy talk in November. We described at length why there was good reason to take new FAA Director Steven Dickson at his word, telling his troops in a medium guaranteed to get to the press that they should “take whatever time is needed” to assess the plane.

    Apparently Boeing has been trying to strong-arm the FAA by other channels. The agency gave a more direct smack-down last week. The latest version, which came in a letter from the FAA to Congressional investigators last week, was pointed:

    The administrator is concerned that Boeing continues to pursue a return-to-service schedule that is not realistic due to delays that have accumulated for a variety of reasons.

    More concerning, the administrator wants to directly address the perception that some of Boeing’s public statements have been designed to force FAA into taking quicker action.

    A Congressional hearing last week also exposed that the Boeing and the FAA both knew that the 737 Max was more crash-prone than typical jets, yet they didn’t consider grounding them until the second fatal MCAS-induced nose dive.

    Boeing now has more 737 Max aircraft in its inventory that it sold before the troubled jet was grounded worldwide. The Seattle Times points out that many of Boeing’s 400 mothballed planes will need “extensive maintenance” to be able to fly. The Wall Street Journal cited analyst estimates that the freeze would cut Boeing’s $4.4 billion a quarter 737 Max cash burn by about 50%. As Bloomberg points out:

    The factory pause heightens the risk that financial damage will linger for years after regulators clear Boeing’s best-selling plane to resume commercial flight. The cash pressure is rising as almost 400 new aircraft languish in storage due to a global flying ban imposed nine months ago. The timing of regulatory approval for the Max’s return has slipped repeatedly and remains uncertain with Boeing’s relationship with the Federal Aviation Administration in tatters.

    And the cost of storing planes isn’t the only source of damage. Later in the same story:

    But the company still faces eye-watering costs to compensate airlines for lost flying that will only grow with the disruption to production. Customer concessions could double to $11 billion from the previously announced $5.6 billion, [Jefferies analyst Sheila] Kahyaoglu said.

    One bit of good news is at least for now, the 737 Max workforce has been spared; they are being shifted to other planes. But as we’ll discuss, employees at major parts-makers for the 737 Max may not be so fortunate.

    On the one hand, I have to confess to schadenfreude in seeing Boeing suffering the consequences of its reckless, self-serving behavior and its success in capturing the FAA. It was disturbing, even with no stake what happened to the 737 Max, to see CEO Dennis Muilenburg’s scapegoating of pilots, misrepresentations about Boeing’s awareness of problems with the plane, and repeatedly unrealistic timetables about when the 737 Max would be greenlighted to fly again.

    Boeing also seemed to be remarkably obtuse about the significance of the damage it had done to the FAA and how having the US regulator discredited was not in its commercial interest. Even while it is in the doghouse, Boeing has repeatedly tried to pressure the FAA by presenting timetables when it expected the agency to grant its blessing. It isn’t merely that the FAA has found new problems with the plane as it has looked harder, such as physical difficulties in operating the manual trim wheel, leading to delays in the certification process. It is also that the agency has twice found it necessary to slap down Boeing’s ham-handed efforts to muscle the FAA by disputing Boeing’s assertions.

    But even so, seeing Boeing suffer more, and more tangible damage from the 737 Max fiasco hasn’t yet dislodged Muilenburg, who is in his own way, as arrogant and tone deaf as departed Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf. Some try to defend Muilenburg by arguing that the 737 Max project was well along before he became CEO. That does not cut it. He made no discernible effort to alter its risky course. He’s done a terrible job of crisis management and now of the relationship with the FAA. Yet the Boeing board seems so convinced of the company’s too big to fail status that it’s unwilling to engage in the overdue ritual defenestration.

    The knock-on impact of the production freeze will be significant. From the Journal:

    “It would be hard to have any other single company stop the production of a single product and have it hit the economy as hard as this would,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at investment-management firm Wilmington Trust. He estimated that stopping MAX production for one quarter would shave 0.3 of a percentage point from quarterly annualized GDP growth.

    Boeing’s suppliers will take a blow,. With the propensity of major firms to concentrate production among fewer suppliers (to gain more pricing leverage, natch), the damage to some could be large. And they also be less likely to shield their workers even in the near term. From Bloomberg:

    The 400,000 parts that go into each Max arrive in a tightly choreographed sequence timed, in some cases, down to the hour.

    “If it shuts production down, it risks losing employees and having greater difficulty ramping back up in the future; and the same goes for the supply base,” Cai von Rumohr, an analyst with Cowen, said in a note to clients before Boeing’s announcement.

    The pace of work will be determined supplier by supplier, rather than halted across the board, said the Boeing official, who asked not to be named because discussions are confidential. The company doesn’t want to lose capacity at casting and forging companies that struggled with delays last year.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/12/boeing-halts-737-max-production-to-reduce-cash-burn-suppliers-hit-measurable-ding-to-gdp-expected.html

  5. 1505
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1478 – Here is the chart that shows 90%+ in the city of Seattle. I didn’t include multiple links previously to avoid moderation.

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/bidding-wars-in-seattle-nearly-vanish/

  6. 1506

    Cheer Up Bubbleheads Gulp Your Yuban and Read Yesterday’s Seattle Times Brief, Be Happy If You Don’t Get the Boeing Worker Christmas Coal “Pink Slip” This Holiday Season

    “… Shutdown likely at Boeing’s Renton plant; substantial layoffs possible
    Boeing’s board today is weighing a proposal from top management to temporarily halt 737 production in Renton, with an announcement likely today or tomorrow, according to a person close to the decision makers. The assembly lines would shut down until the 737 MAX is cleared to fly. It’s tough news for Boeing’s roughly 12,000 Renton workers. Some would be transferred to other facilities, but furloughs are likely. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: I see the whole commercial airplane business in general going down the tube as livable pay left for vacations and such is removed from our grim family budgets…car ownership and home ownership too. If we added more Seattle area growth and reduced wages that would fix it…LOL

    “…It’s impeachment week. As the House prepares to impeach President Donald Trump as soon as Wednesday, party leaders are already wrangling over the Senate trial — and whether it should involve some high-ranking new witnesses. Here’s a quick look at the days ahead. Meanwhile, Trump kept busy attacking House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s teeth. As the rhetoric amps up on both sides, you can chew on this fact check….”

    SWE’s take: This dead end impeachment waste has about as much appeal as my ex-wife to me….I’m reading Tom Clancy’s 1986 “Red Storm Rising” depiction scenario of a possible WWIII against Russia…much of the Soviet KGB were stationed in the Ukraine at that time…the same area Biden’s son worked for…its always been a hell-house for corruption and Trump was correct investigating this organized crime center.

    “…”A presidency where you can … have your blood pressure actually go down”: Democrat Pete Buttigieg swung through Seattle over the weekend, pitching himself as the presidential candidate who can start a healing process for the nation. Compare where he and the other candidates stand on the issues….”

    SWE’s take: Yeah, blame Trump for your high blood pressure and health problems IOWs, that’s psychotic thinking.

    Good News: You can still mail Media Rates”just” books for Christmas, its 1/10th USPS postage rates of other Christmas gifts…

  7. 1507

    RE: Blurtman @ 1479
    Great Research Blurtman

    All the Bubble heads should read your long detailed comment, check out the 1982 “Airframe” book by Michael Crichton….it reminds me of this MAX 8 mess to the tee…even the outsourcing of the plane program to Asia.

    Boeing should have never transferred its dwgs to a foreign language and left the English language FAA “figuratively” without a meaningful job…

  8. 1508
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1480 – I think above all, those charts show the limitations of using the Redfin numbers. The first chart shows Seattle City bidding wars oscillating around 45% in 2011 – and spread between 30% and 60% through the year. And December to December, about 5 times what they are now. Do you remember 2011?

  9. 1509
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1483 – Ha 2011! Many speculators made lowball offers on multiple properties. Why would you be surprised many properties received multiple (lowball) offers? I guess you were not in the market then. LOL.

    There is nothing wrong with the Redfin chart.

  10. 1510
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1482 – Reading the Seattle Times story comments, it seems a lot of Boeing folk blame the GE and McD execs and culture they brought into Boeing.

  11. 1511
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1484 – That is a “bidding war”, (as presented), in your mind? LOL.

  12. 1512
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1479
    We need you Sammamish traveling salesmen to step up and bail us out.

  13. 1513
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1480

    You are not quoting accurately either way. That doesn’t say 90% to 10% in Seattle as you originally stated. It says 90% to 28% in North Seattle and only to the extent of their marketshare. What do you think their marketshare is? This is anecdotal info at best.

  14. 1514
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1488

    Do a search on redfin bidding wars, and you’ll find article after article referring to the correlation between trends in the redfin statistics and various local housing market conditions.

    You can argue about market share all you want, but a large number of Industry watchers seem to agree that Redfin bidding data provides a valid reference point.

    And regardless of the semantics of the issue in Seattle specifically, it’s pretty clear that the bidding wars have fallen off the cliff since the boom times when foreign investment was pouring in.

  15. 1515
    Blurtman says:

    By Erik @ 1487:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1479
    We need you Sammamish traveling salesmen to step up and bail us out.

    Hopefully Boeing’s woes will not adversely affect RE prices in the lesser communities. And we’re full up, BTW, so fuggedaboudit.:>))

  16. 1516
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1486 – You were the one who brought up “bidding war”. I wrote “offers that faced multiple offers”. Comprehension problem?

  17. 1517
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1488 – What? Are you still in denial? Do people have comprehension problem here? The 28% number was last year’s number. I am pretty sure it is sub 10% in the most recent report. Can you please take a moment to think and validate before you post? Thank you.

  18. 1518
    uwp says:

    Anecdotal evidence:
    On our recent purchase, we offered under the list price, and there was another offer (that was also under list).

    I hope it’s the same as 2011, like Eastsider believes.

  19. 1519
    Beano says:

    By Blurtman @ 1489:

    By Erik @ 1487:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1479
    We need you Sammamish traveling salesmen to step up and bail us out.

    Hopefully Boeing’s woes will not adversely affect RE prices in the lesser communities. And we’re full up, BTW, so fuggedaboudit.:>))

    I was shopping in the area just east of the 737 plant, a number of Boeing employees were selling this summer. This isn’t news to anyone. Usually when the public feels it, it’s too late. There were some nice deals to be had east of the 737 plant this summer/fall.

    I’m sure a few deals will remain this spring.

  20. 1520
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1490 – Your source explicitly said “bidding wars”, (Sorry, Tim). And context of the conversation was bidding wars. If I wrongly implied you were being ignorant when you were actually being disingenuous, please accept my humble apology.

  21. 1521
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1494

    In 2011, many underwater homeowners listed their homes at their ‘mortgage’ prices. In 2019, many sellers list their home at peak 2017 + 15% prices. In both cases, their asking prices are unrealistic. But if 10 buyers show interest in an overpriced property and submit their best offers, a bidding war has certainly broken out.

    I don’t need an apology from you but you should definitely learn how to apologize. And how to think clearly too.

  22. 1522
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1495 – What’s this? In post 1490, you were running away from the term bidding war. Now, it turns out to be right all along? I don’t know how many properties in 2011 or 2019 were getting 10 bidders, or how many people today are listing their houses at 2017 + 15%. I would guess not many either way. But if you think that the buyer/seller dynamics are comparable to, or 4 times better for the buyer today than in 2011, I would say you are taking great comfort from small sophistries. Or is it small comfort from great sophistries? I don’t know; it doesn’t matter. You should have bought in 2015.

  23. 1523
    whatsmyname says:

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/most-affordable-places-for-software-engineers/

    Here’s a great Redfin article about 5 affordable places for software engineers priced out of the Bay Area.

    Seattle, affordable to 61.2% of engineers, is way more affordable than San Francisco (21.5%). Who’d have thought the difference would be so extreme? Seattle is also more affordable than Colorado Springs, (52.6%), and Columbus, Ohio, (60.7 %). It is nearly as affordable as Charlotte, NC, (62.9%), and Grand Rapids MI, (64.7 %), leaving Buffalo, NY, (76.3 %) as the affordability winner. To be fair, there is probably some offset to not having to live in Charlotte, Grand Rapids, or Buffalo.

  24. 1524

    RE: Eastsider @ 1491

    From The Tim for those who don’t click on links:

    “Every part of the city has rapidly cooled off this year. Even North Seattle neighborhoods that had 90 percent of offers facing competition in the first quarter have fallen to just 28 percent in the fourth quarter through December 15.”

    “Of course, even though bidding wars have fallen off a cliff this year, that doesn’t mean they have gone away completely. In South Seattle nearly a third of offers (29%) are still facing competition, down from almost two thirds (65%) in the first half of the year.”

    Not in denial but these numbers of 28% and 29% are still lower than some Eastside Cities. I don’t think Seattle overall or King County overall was ever at 85% or 90%.

    We don’t have to be in denial, but we do have to be honest. I don’t think sellers should assume they are going to get multiple offers meaning they should NOT under price expecting multiple offers. Nor do I think buyers should think there are none, especially if they want the top ranked schools on The Eastside.

    I think sellers should price a hair high (agreeing with Deerhawke there) which in and of itself will reduce the bidding wars. Reduced bidding wars can simply be that. A house should sell for less than asking in a normal market. 97% to 98% of asking is the long term norm, not 100% or 102% or 110%.

    The one I saw with 8 offers was a hard house to price. I don’t fault the agent on that and I don’t think he was trying to under price it to get bidding wars. There were no true comps for it.

  25. 1525
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1498 – Hello Ardell. Again, your quotes were from a year ago. To be precise, December 19, 2018. Not 2019! Today it is sub 10%.

  26. 1526
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1499

    It’s your link in 1480. Did you post another?

    Again, since it’s only reflecting their offers, how much marketshare do you think it represents?

    It clearly doesn’t match Eastside(r) recent data. Nor did your new construction claims. No comment on the ppsf increase refuting your claim of massive decline? Have you no interest in where the truth lies?

  27. 1527
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1471
    I was using extreme words like “crash” to make fun of Justme and other people that overreact on here. Prices barely went down and Justme and Sfrz went nuts.

    I’m here for the knowledge. Please continue contributing as your comments are valuable.

    That said, I probably should be using more precise words and clearly identifying when I’m joking.

  28. 1528
    OA says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1497

    Wow that’s some interesting information.

    Bay Area is way too expensive. No brainer to sell your house in the Bay Area and buy something in Seattle for cash while making a similar salary and lower cost of living.

  29. 1529
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1489
    My last purchase was in the lesser community of Rainier View. Hoping that area isn’t affected by the pause.

    Blurtman and Ted Bundy can afford Sammamish. Struggling aerospace workers can only afford Rainier, Skyway, and Renton.

  30. 1530
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1500

    You keep asking about market share. OK, how much market share does Redfin represent?

    Given the concept of sampling, and understanding that there is probably some selection bias, how much do you claim they need in order to be a useful approximation?

    I’ve seen article after article (multiple cities) reference their numbers as evidence to explain either tightening or softening of the market.

    So far, I’ve seen you hacking at trees, focusing on a misquote here, or some out of place detail there, but the forest seems pretty unscathed.

    Metaphorically speaking, of course.

    When the bidding wars decline, the market softens. Or vice versa. No rocket science here.

  31. 1531
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1493
    Smart! I’m gonna try to buy another rental in that area after I get my money back on my current project. Great area for rental houses.

  32. 1532
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1503 – Hey, Ted kept the yard clean, and the house well-maintained.

  33. 1533
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1500:

    It’s your link in 1480. Did you post another?

    Why don’t you read your own comment in 1478?

    It clearly doesn’t match Eastside(r) recent data. Nor did your new construction claims. No comment on the ppsf increase refuting your claim of massive decline? Have you no interest in where the truth lies?

    The new construction data comes from redfin. Again, it shows a -12.9% YoY decline in September, the worst in the past decade*. Is that a “massive decline”? You tell me.

  34. 1534

    Smile, Christmas Eve in One Week, Merry Christmas Bubbleheads [Now all the snow flakes hate SWE, he wished you a Merry Christmas….LOL], Get your Mug Fill It With Yuban and Read the Seattle Times Brief:

    “… NEED TO KNOW
    President Donald Trump will likely go down in history today as the third U.S. president to be impeached. The House has begun the showdown that’s scheduled to end with a vote today. Here’s a quick look at what to expect, and where to watch it and read updates. More:

    Both articles of impeachment have gained enough support to pass. An interactive breakdown shows how each lawmaker plans to vote.
    An “attempted coup”: Let’s fact-check the scathing six-page letter Trump sent to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
    The Democrats have blown it in making the case against Trump, columnist Danny Westneat writes.
    In Seattle, as in many cities across the nation, a crowd gathered last night to push for impeachment. Here are photos.
    Where did the word “impeachment” come from, anyway? Its fascinating history starts with feet….”

    SWE’s take: Remember a month ago when Trump was behind all the Democrats in the polls for President, 10+ points a piece too, since then, those same “liberal tilted polls, they all are, remember 2016″…trending Trump is leading all the Democrat candidates [including Biden] as the 2020 President choice by 10+ points or more too…LOL….so much for impeachment, its obviously a great Trump campaign fund raiser and winning strategy for Trump. Trump’s poll numbers are suddenly going through the roof…LOL….how can most Americans be for impeachment when most Americans want Trump elected? The tooth fairy? Come on Open Border Party, I want your Mother Goose Fairy Tale to support impeachment now? Cat got your tongue, why don’t you go to your friends, the Ukraine mobsters, and get more Russian KGB spies on your DNC budget to buy to get Steele and his thugs for more disinformation on Trump, like that phony/illegal FISA Dossier the FBI illegally orchestrated to wire tap Trump’s campaign headquarters? Read the IG report if you don’t believe me. Putin really hates Trump anyway, he will thank you for dividing the nation that way too, his disinformation spies did well…LOL

    “… How a toddler’s life was saved when van plowed into Burien store
    A 2-year-old boy didn’t have a pulse when police arrived at the Burien store where a van had crashed through the windows and pinned him in his stroller. But thanks to the quick actions of officers and medics, the toddler is expected to survive, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office. He’s among 11 people who were injured at the Ross Dress for Less. Police suspect the driver was impaired by drugs, and his passenger is accused of shoplifting “knick-knacks” before the crash. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Not only is the west coast homelessness crisis getting far worse, they poop in the public grocery store aisles and bite the grocery shoppers too now; the almost daily Seattle area “white powder drug crazed” HORRIFYING VIOLENCE is happening too…its definitely not all gun related too.

    “…”Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” has arrived, full of stunning surprises. Here’s our four-star review of the epic final chapter in the “Star Wars” series…”

    SWE’s Take: I saw the last international Hollywood Star Wars movie a couple years ago, it lacked experienced/skilled actors and screen writers…its NWO “low paid”subpar Hollywood quality, just like our avg per capita NWO low paid workforce with hardly no “livable avg pay” Manufacturing Engineering on-the-job training in Seattle…LOL….read a good book instead.

    “…
    If you work at a small company, know this: Your job may not be protected if you take leave under Washington’s new Paid Family and Medical Leave program. That’s a lesser-known provision of the law, which allows most workers up to 12 weeks of paid leave. The law is among three big changes that will benefit many Washington workers….”

    SWE’s Take: The 12,000 laid off Boeing workers can always join a homeless tent group after that money dries up…there’s plenty of like $12/hr hamburger flipping jobs to feed the family at the tent…

    “…Should Washington drivers pay a per-mile tax, rather than being taxed at the gas pump? As transportation leaders talk about how that could look, debate is amping up over whether money from such a tax should be spent on roads alone….”

    SWE’s take: Hey, I drive so little now, maybe I could fill up my Dodge Charger rocket for $2/gal….sorry Prius owners, you drive too much…LOL

    Some Good News: They give you a tax write-off for putting up a $40,000 solar cell system to supplement electrical grid capacity for electric vehicles, on your roof, that doesn’t work very good in cloudy weather…LOL…the parts are all Chinese.

  35. 1535
  36. 1536

    Skip Cheap/Regurgitated International Hollywood Movies

    Watch some old “original” classics on your flat screens instead, or read a book.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/new-star-wars-on-course-for-worst-reviews-since-e2-80-98phantom-menace-e2-80-99/ar-BBY6WML

  37. 1537
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1505 – Maybe SWE can pipe in, but if you read the comments in the Seattle Times article from current and past Boeing employees, there is great skepticism regarding the no layoffs announcement, so things may be looking up for RE vultures.

  38. 1538
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1507

    I already told you. You refuse to listen. The devil is in the details. Small townhomes are skewing the number down. Price per sf is up not down.

  39. 1539
    Juststoppedby says:

    The impact of Chinese home buyers – a look back to the time before capital controls kicked in.

    Btw, those controls also correlate pretty well with when the bidding war numbers started to collapse…

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellensheng/2017/03/02/seattle-real-estate-sees-surge-in-chinese-interest-after-vancouver-enacts-15-tax/#698fd34465e1

    ““The higher the price point, the greater the percentage of Chinese buyers,” said Dean Jones, principal and owner of Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty in Seattle. Chinese buyers made up less than a quarter of buyers in 2014 but to about 35% of buyers in 2015 and now about 50% or more in 2016 in the most popular neighborhoods.“

    …““The Chinese know the influence the Chinese have–creating a self-fulfilling prophecy about a rising home market and healthy investment returns. They have seen the impact of other ‘discovered’ markets like Vancouver, San Francisco and Los Angeles so while Seattle was overlooked for years, it’s suddenly become the belle of the ball,” said Sotheby’s Jones.“

    …” While Seattle sellers are delighted with the influx of attention and all-cash offers, locals and buyers are concerned that the city will follow in Vancouver’s footsteps and become unaffordable to locals. The median sales price in Bellevue, for instance, has risen by 82% to 2011.”

  40. 1540
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1511
    Boeing employees are always skeptical because they’ve been lied to and tricked by leadership so many times. Last trick was hiring new employees and having an emergency vote to get rid of pensions. Employees are scorned.

  41. 1541
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1512

    Ardell, I am not sure why Eastsider and Juststoppedby even care about this topic. I do not believe they are in the market to either buy or sell real estate. But I am pretty sure they do not want to believe what you and/or your superior data says.

    This is the Seattle Bubble blog so damnit there has to be a Bubble in Seattle real Estate! Otherwise it’s not fair! ;)

  42. 1542
    Lulu says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1513
    Vancouver has better city scape due to foreign investment than Seattle. I would welcome foreign inflow of investment.

  43. 1543
    Erik says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1516
    San Francisco got foreign investment, Vancouver got foreign investment, Seattle started to benefit from Chinese money until the Chinese government blocked it. Chinese investors will find a way around this barrier in time. In my mind, it’s not a matter of “if,” it’s a matter of “when” foreign money flows into Seattle.

    Like I said before, it could happen with the Chinese tariff negotiations. One thing is certain, when the gates open again, Seattle real estate prices will boom. That’s partially why I’m trying to buy as many rentals I can in Seattle, foreign money is about to turn this place into a world class city.

  44. 1544
    Lulu says:

    RE: Erik @ 1517
    Seattle real estate is a safe bet for many foreign investors. East coast and west coast.

  45. 1545
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1515:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1512

    . But I am pretty sure they do not want to believe what you and/or your superior data says.

    Why would it have to be inferior or superior?

    Ardell’s data may very well be accurate for specific segments/periods of the market.

    That does not invalidate historical data that helps to illustrate how we got to the current market.

    It’s silly to try to predict what could happen in the future without at least trying to have a firm understanding of what got us to this point.

    Are we in a bubble? I dunno.

    Will communist China have a sudden change of heart and allow people to pull money out and reduce their foreign reserves? Or will Boeing struggle locally? Or maybe something else?

    Who knows.

  46. 1546
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1519
    That’s the thing, it’s not a big gamble! People that don’t understand the cycles and indicators think it’s a crap shoot and there is no way of knowing what’s gonna happen. False!

    People like Eastsider, Kenmoron, Justme, Sfrz, you, that guy driving from open house to open house in Woodinville to gauge the market, wreckingbull, and the list goes on don’t see the trends. I made it my job to figure this stuff out 15 years ago and read lots of books and talked to people I thought knew what was up.

    Hangout here and pretend you understand. That’s what I did. Read real books, not articles! You’ll never learn from the newspaper or magazines. They only post what sells. If you take your learning seriously, and I hope you do, you can make a lot of money buying and selling or investing or building.

    Last tiny blip, inexperienced people like the ones listed above freaked out and started crying to their mama’s when the price increase paused. Anyone that had any sense knew it would be a short pause and not cut deep. They knew because Seattle is a long term bull based on geography and all the tech companies starting here. Asia is moving into the west coast like Europe moved to the east coast. Inventory was super low, so it would be highly unlikely for prices to go down a lot. This is our first bear, and markets usually have 2 bears before a crash. Interest rates went down and that is a great way to inflate prices.

    This is just skimming over some key points and there are more moving parts to watch. Keep commenting, start reading a lot, and get out and invest. That’s how you can help yourself figure this out.

    Based on your comments, it sounds like you have a long ways to go on understanding the Seattle market. You can front arrogance, but go back and take the criticism and do your research. Once you think you have it, investing becomes much less stressful.

    I’m gonna end with this one last comment after rereading your comment. STOP ONLY READING NEWS ARTICLES!!!! You aren’t gaining anything because you don’t have a foundation!

  47. 1547
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Erik @ 1520:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1519

    I’m gonna end with this one last comment after rereading your comment. STOP ONLY READING NEWS ARTICLES!!!! You aren’t gaining anything because you don’t have a foundation!

    I almost can’t stop smiling because of how poorly you’ve misread me, but I appreciate all the words.

    Trust me when I say that I have forgotten more about mortgage finance and real estate banking laws than you’ll probably ever know.

    Btw, I’m not saying that I know a lot or that you know very little – I’m saying that I used to know quite a bit, and I have literally forgotten most of it. 😀

    But I can still remember the days when 28/36 was the standard, I know how few people in the mortgage industry actually understand what a fully indexed ARM mortgage is, and I know how much they had to change the laws in order to keep the whole economy from crashing.

    Thank you for what I’m sure was heartfelt advice, but I guess I just see things a little bit differently than you.

    Best regards,

    JSB

  48. 1548
    Beano says:

    RE: Erik @ 1520

    Which 2-3 books do you recommend Erik?

  49. 1549
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1521
    I’m not talking about mortgage finance and real estate laws. I would say mortgage finance and real estate banking laws are probably the 2 things I care the least about in life. :)

    I care about learning to make enough money in the real estate market by investing, flipping, etc. to be financially free. The goal is to get out of the rat race as Robert Kiosaki would say. After that, I’ll re-evaluate.

  50. 1550
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1522
    1. “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” ~Robert Kiosaki
    2. “The Housing Boom and Bust”~Thomas Sowell
    3. https://www.extension.harvard.edu/inside-extension/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

    I’ll admit, I’ve read each book and website article over 10 times each because I really wanted to understand the information. I think if we all really understood these concepts, we’d all get along and agree more. I’m sure we’d argue the validity of the source. I found those 3 reads extremely helpful in forming a foundation. A little knowledge goes a long ways sometimes.

  51. 1551

    Hey Seattle Bubbleheads; Don’t Sweat Sales Numbers or Home Interest Rates for Loans

    Would if Russian led WWIII plans are behind all the corruption and disinformation against an American President lately and they really must hate, Trump? Ukraine spies, spooks and KGB types are skilled at bribing and could be a disinformation campaign to deflect their “imminent” war mongering planning against America and the EU? Even the impeachment falls “directly” into the Russian packet of brainwashing and dividing America. This scenario is not mine, read the “best seller” author and “Military Historian” Tom Clancy as he lays out an actual scenario for WWIII with Russia, Ukraine’s KGB mob bosses were behind the propaganda before the war launched. Read Red Storm Rising, 1986.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/russias-top-general-warns-world-21121097

  52. 1552

    Great Opinions and Comments All, Even Just Buyer Psychology Disputes are Fine With Me Too

    You folks all deserve a pat on the back for a treasure trove of positive/negative opinions on RE price trending. I learn something from all comments.

    Fill Your Mugs With Yuban, Tell Your Neighbor Merry Christmas and mean it, while reading the Brief:

    “… Trump is impeached — but uncertainty clouds the next step
    Minutes after President Donald Trump last night became the third U.S. president impeached by the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi threw uncertainty into the next step by refusing to say when she would send the impeachment articles to the Senate. Until that happens, the Senate can’t hold the trial that is nearly certain to acquit Trump. “We haven’t seen anything that looks fair to us,” Pelosi said of senators’ plans. (Photo: Al Drago / The New York Times)
    MORE IMPEACHMENT NEWS

    Washington state’s lawmakers voted along party lines; here’s what they said about their decisions. Nationally, three Democrats crossed those lines.
    While all of this was happening, an unbowed Trump said he was “having a good time.”
    Why would anyone bother to write a fashion story about the impeachment? Because there were some quietly powerful declarations happening — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s pin, for example…”

    SWE’s Take: The gloves are off the GOP for phase II of the impeachment HOAX. Its time to put Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler and the rest of the coup leaders to mandatorially attend a GOP lead Senate Hearing, and forget about the DNC Witness List. Constitutional Executive Privilege defines/protects/exempts folks from the WH Staff and the State Department, the Constitution allows them to refuse the DNC impeachment witness supeonas, but the “high powered” Congress DNC Deep State folks [like Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler, Biden Jr] lack that Constitutional protection now. Time for Pelosi to pull the plug on the impeachment articles…she’s considering it right now.

    “..Gov. Jay Inslee wants to spend $300 million to slash unsheltered homelessness in half over the next two years. His plan includes new shelters and expanded housing programs, along with money for communities to clean up the sites of vacated homeless camps. Inslee says he can do this without raising taxes or cutting other services…”

    SWE’s take: LOL…no taxes on a 1/3 of billion in State costs for homelessness, that’s like saying you can drive your car without car payments and insurance….lies!

    “…”A tragic reminder” of flu’s dangers: A King County child has died of complications from the flu. It’s the county’s first known pediatric death from the virus in a decade. The flu is hitting more people than usual in Washington state. It’s not too late to get the shot….”

    SWE’s Take: Flu viruses change types every Winter and the 2019/2020 new type will have no vaccine until next Fall 2020….meaning the flu shot is mostly useless. I haven’t had the flu for decades and haven’t had the shot either…LOL…vitamin C works better. The flu shots have MERCURY in them too…YIKES.

    “…An 85-year-old woman is accused of beating one roommate to death and shooting a second one overnight in Federal Way. She’s in custody, and the woman who was shot is expected to survive…”

    SWE’s take: This is sad, another daily violence tale in Seattle, this time its a “crazed” 85 YO retiree over rent sharing. We need lower rents and property taxes folks.

    “…Sound Transit’s ridership stopped growing, many station escalators and elevators don’t work, and the agency has taken the primary blame for failing to prevent a fatal Amtrak derailment two years ago. But CEO Peter Rogoff is getting a bonus and a raise. The board is explaining why he’s rated “excellent.”..”

    SWE’s take: The King County mob bosses aren’t rated on performance issues, just how well they support Open Border Party organized crime.

    “…Dinner at “The Nutcracker”: Our restaurant critic and dance expert went in search of a good de-Grinching by taste-testing their way through the classic Seattle experience, from McCaw Hall’s Prelude to the sugary mouse cookies. Here’s what they found, served up with some delicious tips on everything from picking good seats to getting cheap tickets…”

    SWE’s Take: How much is this dinner venue with parking and drinks? $150 a person? LOL

    Good News: The snow didn’t come this week, its a few degrees warmer…lets hope this luck goes on through Christmas.

  53. 1553

    More Disinformation Dissemination From the Communist Ukraine KGB

    “…https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2019-12-19/putin-on-trump-impeachment-your-members-of-congress-should-know-better

    It reads just like Clancy’s Red Storm Rising 1986 book, it hasn’t changed in 33 years. Never trust those Communist skunks.

  54. 1554
    Miles says:

    RE: Erik @ 1524
    Great suggestions, I’ve only read Rich Dad Poor Dad to date.

    On unrelated note, housing numbers this spring will be interesting as turmoil with Boeing is bound to reduce risk tolerance of some potential buyers, myself included.

  55. 1555
    Deerhawke says:

    We had a differential between official NWMLS inventory figures and the Redfin feed on this site. At one point, it seemed to be that Redfin was undercounting by 300. Then subsequently Ardell showed us that it was more like 140. I just did a count comparing NWMLS vs Redfin for the end of November and it was 3487 vs 3438 — just less than 50.

    By that standard, that means that the Current Redfin count of 1995 plus our adjustment factor of 50 gives us a NWMLS count of about 2045.

    Earlier this fall I said the trend line would put us at 2000 and perhaps lower. I am convinced now it definitely will be lower and think we may end up at 1850. That puts us right about where we were at the end of 2016. We know what happened to prices then, right?

    It is counter-intuitive but nobody wants to buy when prices are falling. They want to feel the comfort of the herd and so jump in when prices are rising.

    Scarcity on the supply side creates strong demand-side buying behavior. Or as an acquaintance once said, “Buyers love a Seller’s market.”

    We have started to see this in the last few months. With continued low interest rates, we will see more in the spring.

    I am going to remain conservative and believe there will be a recognition lag effect. But I am still going to say we will see YOY price gains of 5% during the spring bump.

    For those of you looking for a bubble, look behind you. It is not 2008, but that is what a downturn looks like.

  56. 1556
    Beano says:

    By Erik @ 1524:

    RE: Beano @ 1522
    1. “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” ~Robert Kiosaki
    2. “The Housing Boom and Bust”~Thomas Sowell
    3. https://www.extension.harvard.edu/inside-extension/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

    I’ll admit, I’ve read each book and website article over 10 times each because I really wanted to understand the information. I think if we all really understood these concepts, we’d all get along and agree more. I’m sure we’d argue the validity of the source. I found those 3 reads extremely helpful in forming a foundation. A little knowledge goes a long ways sometimes.

    thanks for your input

  57. 1557
    Erik says:

    RE: Beano @ 1529
    No problem.

    I’m interested in establishing a mentor for commercial real estate. Please let me know if you know anyone willing to mentor me that’s knowledgeable in that area. I’d like to find mixed use commercial real estate in Seattle next time they go on sale.

  58. 1558
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1527 – Former KGB head, re-builder of the Soviet Union, and Dictator of Russia who regularly threatens the USA says Congress made a mistake believing Russia meddled with election. Nevermind that US intelligence said that they did, that the Mueller report said that they did, and the 6 people are convicted for their parts in it. It was really weak, poor and powerless Ukraine that pulled it off – just like in the talking points of our good friend that invades our allies, and warns of what they’ll do to us.

  59. 1559
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1528:

    That puts us right about where we were at the end of 2016. We know what happened to prices then, right?

    Exactly! What a great lead in to remember this little market driver from December 2016:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-becomes-no-1-us-market-for-chinese-homebuyers/

    “A growing wave of money from China and other foreign countries is pouring into the Seattle-area housing market, helping drive home prices even higher. And since July a new tax on international buyers in Vancouver, B.C., long a popular market for home seekers from China, has focused even more global interest here.

    Seattle saw more inquiries from mainland-Chinese homebuyers than any other American city in four of the last seven months, according to Juwai.com, China’s biggest real-estate site for buyers looking in North America.

    Historically, Seattle had attracted less real-estate money from China than Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco.

    But the region’s upward shift only accelerated after British Columbia enacted a 15 percent tax on foreign buyers in the Vancouver metro area. Searches by Chinese home seekers for Seattle have more than doubled, while they’ve been cut nearly in half in Vancouver, Juwai says“

    So what seems more likely, that buyers had been waiting to spend more on houses, or that foreign homebuyers spending a gazillion dollars in the market drove prices up?

    Hard to say…

  60. 1560
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1532
    Real estate prices are largely affected by supply and demand. Adding foreign buyers increases demand and drives up prices. It’s really that simple.

    We have low inventory already. Throw in a little more demand and prices can only go up.

    This is what I was talking about earlier about not having a firm grasp on the fundamentals. This comment supports my previous observation. You are reading articles without paying attention to the fundamentals.

  61. 1561
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1531
    Democrats are trying to impeach Trump because they do not think they can beat him next election. It was Russia and now its Ukraine. I’m sure the DNC will find a new reason to impeach Trump if they can’t get him this time.

    America will vote Trump again in 2020 and Democrats know it so they are fighting like crazy to get him out anyway possible. If I was a strong Democrat in Congress, I’d probably do the same thing too so my side won.

  62. 1562
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 1534 – I try not to get political here, however taking the word of Russia’s dictator and long time propaganda specialist over American Intelligence is just a little too much for me. But you do you.

  63. 1563
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1534:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1531
    Democrats are trying to impeach Trump because they do not think they can beat him next election.

    No, Trump is trying to cheat this time because the only reason he won last time was beacuse of the electoral college and Russian help. He of course lost the popular vote by 3 million.

    Polls show him getting trounced by Biden. He has to cheat to beat Biden or else he wouldn’t do it.

    Trump admitted he extorted Ukraine. He admitted what he got impeached for. So did Rudy and so did Mulvaney.

    Ha ha he got impeached.

    What an idiot, Pelosi was throwing out every excuse not to impeach him and he still managed to self-impeach. He’s the dumbest person alive.

  64. 1564
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1536
    Doesn’t the senate have to get 2/3rds vote to impeach him? Did that happen?

    We all knew lying Chuck Schumer and high crime Nancy Pelosi would vote him out whether the he did something wrong or not. They control the house and they will do what they have to to get Trump impeached. I want to see someone not extremely corrupt vote him out.

  65. 1565
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1537:

    RE: pfft @ 1536
    Doesn’t the senate have to get 2/3rds vote to impeach him?

    No it doesn’t. The House impeaches.

  66. 1566
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1535
    Yah, I don’t know if he’s guilty or not. I am pretty sure the house would vote him out regardless of whether he was guilty or not.

  67. 1567
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 1536 – Polls are rubbish as Hillary can tell you.

  68. 1568
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1538
    Seems unfair because the party that controls the house can vote out a president because he/she represents the opposing party. I’ll read some, but it seems like an unfair system if that’s the way it really works and our president is out over nonsense political BS.

  69. 1569
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1540
    Right, we need to listen to the corrupt politicians that represent voters instead of voters.

  70. 1570
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1536
    Yes, you are way smarter than our multi billionaire president. Pffft!

  71. 1571
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1539 – Have been since day one. Look how many brain dead ‘Mexicans believed in the Russian collusion hoax. Now Comey is lying on TV about what he knew, and is being taken to task by IG Horowitz. The FBI under Obama, a president who has ordered the execution of Americans without a trial, and whose corrupt AG Place Holder couldn’t even prosecute bankers who engaged in money laundering for terrorists and drug cartels, has lied to the FISA court to spy on a blameless American, Carter Page, and to spy on a presidential campaign. And the FBI used a bogus oposition research dossier to do this, under Obama.

  72. 1572
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544
    Yes, I was just reading more about it and it said the senate in the votes next. The article said all republicans in the house voted to not impeach trump and all the democrats voted to impeach trump except the democrat that turned republican and another democrat. Total DNC screw job.

  73. 1573
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1541:

    RE: pfft @ 1538
    Seems unfair because the party that controls the house can vote out a president because he/she represents the opposing party. I’ll read some, but it seems like an unfair system if that’s the way it really works and our president is out over nonsense political BS.

    No he is out because he extorted Ukraine and they all admitted it.

    That’s what I don’t get, the president admitted it!

  74. 1574
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1543:

    RE: pfft @ 1536
    Yes, you are way smarter than our multi billionaire president. Pffft!

    He inherited his money from his successful dad, whom bailed his business ventures out for years. Trump is a terrible businessman. He would have been better off putting his money in the bank or in the stock market.

  75. 1575
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 1544:

    RE: Erik @ 1539 – Have been since day one. Look how many brain dead ‘Mexicans believed in the Russian collusion hoax. Now Comey is lying on TV about what he knew, and is being taken to task by IG Horowitz. The FBI under Obama, a president who has ordered the execution of Americans without a trial, and whose corrupt AG Place Holder couldn’t even prosecute bankers who engaged in money laundering for terrorists and drug cartels, has lied to the FISA court to spy on a blameless American, Carter Page, and to spy on a presidential campaign. And the FBI used a bogus oposition research dossier to do this, under Obama.

    Carter Page passed documents to the Russians. Hardly blameless.

  76. 1576
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1547
    You are not making sense. Let’s disengage. Thanks!

    I’ve determined you an unreliable source because of false statements and you have your mind made up. No point in arguing.

  77. 1577
    pfft says:

    Trump is a Putin stooge. He’s so dumb he’ll believe anything the Russians will tell him, as the latest developments have shown.

    Putin is a KGB-trained guy, he knows how to manipulate stupid people like Trump and get them to believe anything he wants. Trump is no match.

  78. 1578
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1549:

    RE: pfft @ 1547
    You are not making sense. Let’s disengage. Thanks!

    He inherited the equivalent of $400 million in todays dollars and a real estate business from his father. Went bankrupt a bunch of times. Should have put his money in the bank and gone golfing. He’d have more money.

  79. 1579
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 1548 – Page was a CIA asset. What documents are you alleging he passed to the Russians?

  80. 1580
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 1552:

    RE: pfft @ 1548 – Page was a CIA asset. What documents are you alleging he passed to the Russians?

    I am not saying it, Page said he did it. He passed energy documents or something.

  81. 1581
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 1553 – And so? Wouldn’t this be something an energy consultant would do? these weren’t top secret documents. “Page acknowledged in a statement on Monday night that he “shared basic immaterial information and publicly available research documents.”

    Agree with Erik. You are full of it.

  82. 1582
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1554
    Watch CNN, NBC, read the New York Times. They are all pumping Democrats with false information as observed by Pfft’s comments. I don’t even blame Pfft, I blame Pfft’s news source. Garbage in, garbage out.

  83. 1583
    Erik says:

    Oh justme, oh Sfrz, oh guy driving from open house to open house in Woodinville….King County inventory is under 2000 and loan rates are lower. Are you still predicting a huge housing crash in Seattle like you were a few months ago? Come on back now and let’s talk.

    You told everyone on here to hold off on buying when the market barely went down. I told everyone that this is a great time to get a deal. Let’s see who was right. Based on what I see, you people hurt readers that listened to you. I think we are in for double digit appreciation for a couple years, but what do I know.

  84. 1584
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Erik @ 1533:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1532
    Real estate prices are largely affected by supply and demand. Adding foreign buyers increases demand and drives up prices. It’s really that simple.

    You’re partly right, but there’s an important distinction between qualified demand and demand.

    BTW, you sure are quick to tell people what they think and/or what they know.

    I hope you don’t do this in your real life with people that you actually want to enjoy being around you.

    It’s a great way to be wrong a lot and to look pretty foolish in the process.

  85. 1585
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1557
    Thank you for the unsolicited advice.

    I’m here to learn and be right, not to make friends. Although I have made a friend on here.

  86. 1586
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1555:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1554
    Watch CNN, NBC, read the New York Times. They are all pumping Democrats with false information as observed by Pfft’s comments. I don’t even blame Pfft, I blame Pfft’s news source. Garbage in, garbage out.

    What are you talking about? Trump, Rudy, Sondland and Mulvaney all admitted they extorted Ukraine and we were to get over it. Sondland testified that there was a quid pro quo. Trump released the call summary. You just get bad talking points from Fox or god knows whatever other news outlet that is even worse.

    They all admitted it and said get over it!

  87. 1587
    Corndog says:

    RE: pfft @ 1550 – Russia? Really?…. I thought I remembered you were kinda smart… .my bad…. Memories going. You should be gutted and your carcass rendered for cat food when they run out of horse meat.

  88. 1588
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 1559
    I don’t care about this topic and I don’t see how it relates to Seattle real estate. You are trying to press me so I argue with you. I’m just not interested in what you have to say.

  89. 1589
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1528:

    Earlier this fall I said the trend line would put us at 2000 and perhaps lower. I am convinced now it definitely will be lower and think we may end up at 1850. That puts us right about where we were at the end of 2016. We know what happened to prices then, right?

    CS Seattle Index Dec 2016 = 206.28
    CS Seattle Index Sept 2019* = 254.60
    CS Seattle Index changes = 23.4% higher

    Aren’t today’s homes 23% overpriced if you want to use 2016 as baseline? LOL

  90. 1590
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544 – Let’s see: Russia helped Trump in the election. Then Trump made numerous secret visits with Putin; backed Putin’s claims that Russia didn’t help him; removed the Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine; pushed Russian propaganda that it was really Ukraine that interfered with our elections; attacked Mueller, and anyone threatening to uncover Russia’s role; gave our leverage and bases in Syria to Putin. Still trying to blame Ukraine. Collusion? Proven Impossible!!!

    Please tell the story of the Americans that Obama ordered executed without trial.

    Then explain the difference between investigating and spying where the FBI is concerned. Did they spy on Capone? Funny you complain about fake smoke where there was real fire. Are Flynn and Manafort in jail for nothing?

  91. 1591
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 1560:

    RE: pfft @ 1559
    I don’t care about this topic and I don’t see how it relates to Seattle real estate. You are trying to press me so I argue with you. I’m just not interested in what you have to say.

    You brought it all up don’t put this on me. That post I replied to had nothing to do with SEA RE and it was you who made it. Now you’re just making excuses and running away when I pointed out you were wrong.

    Carter Page passed documents to the Russians. You don’t simply do that. They are stringing you a long. Eventually they will compromise you. This is not in dispute, Page said he did it.

  92. 1592
    pfft says:

    By whatsmyname @ 1562:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544 – Let’s see: Russia helped Trump in the election. Then Trump made numerous secret visits with Putin; backed Putin’s claims that Russia didn’t help him; removed the Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine; pushed Russian propaganda that it was really Ukraine that interfered with our elections; attacked Mueller, and anyone threatening to uncover Russia’s role; gave our leverage and bases in Syria to Putin. Still trying to blame Ukraine. Collusion? Proven Impossible!!!

    Please tell the story of the Americans that Obama ordered executed without trial.

    Then explain the difference between investigating and spying where the FBI is concerned. Did they spy on Capone? Funny you complain about fake smoke where there was real fire. Are Flynn and Manafort in jail for nothing?

    Don’t forget for much of the campaign Trump lied about his business in Russia. He was negotiating Trump Tower Moscow.

  93. 1593
    OA says:

    By pfft @ 1564:

    By whatsmyname @ 1562:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544 – Let’s see: Russia helped Trump in the election. Then Trump made numerous secret visits with Putin; backed Putin’s claims that Russia didn’t help him; removed the Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine; pushed Russian propaganda that it was really Ukraine that interfered with our elections; attacked Mueller, and anyone threatening to uncover Russia’s role; gave our leverage and bases in Syria to Putin. Still trying to blame Ukraine. Collusion? Proven Impossible!!!

    Please tell the story of the Americans that Obama ordered executed without trial.

    Then explain the difference between investigating and spying where the FBI is concerned. Did they spy on Capone? Funny you complain about fake smoke where there was real fire. Are Flynn and Manafort in jail for nothing?

    Don’t forget for much of the campaign Trump lied about his business in Russia. He was negotiating Trump Tower Moscow.

    You should really consider listening/reading other media sources besides left-leaning ones to get a little bit of diversification. For Trump to be a Russian spy/ally and then to start colluding with Ukraine doesn’t make any sense as these two countries absolutely hate each other.

    If Dems believed that Trump had no chance in getting re-elected none of this craziness would ensue. Dems are hurting themselves more here. And this impeachment looks like a hail marry on their part.

  94. 1594
    pfft says:

    By OA @ 1565:

    By pfft @ 1564:

    By whatsmyname @ 1562:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544 – Let’s see: Russia helped Trump in the election. Then Trump made numerous secret visits with Putin; backed Putin’s claims that Russia didn’t help him; removed the Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine; pushed Russian propaganda that it was really Ukraine that interfered with our elections; attacked Mueller, and anyone threatening to uncover Russia’s role; gave our leverage and bases in Syria to Putin. Still trying to blame Ukraine. Collusion? Proven Impossible!!!

    Please tell the story of the Americans that Obama ordered executed without trial.

    Then explain the difference between investigating and spying where the FBI is concerned. Did they spy on Capone? Funny you complain about fake smoke where there was real fire. Are Flynn and Manafort in jail for nothing?

    Don’t forget for much of the campaign Trump lied about his business in Russia. He was negotiating Trump Tower Moscow.

    You should really consider listening/reading other media sources besides left-leaning ones to get a little bit of diversification. For Trump to be a Russian spy/ally and then to start colluding with Ukraine doesn’t make any sense as these two countries absolutely hate each other.

    If Dems believed that Trump had no chance in getting re-elected none of this craziness would ensue. Dems are hurting themselves more here. And this impeachment looks like a hail marry on their part.

    If Trump thought he could beat Biden he wouldn’t have extorted Ukraine.

    The new Ukraine government is not Russia-friendly, what Trump did by withholding aid and extort it is undermine the new president and shift more of the balance of power to Russia. You didn’t need the media to get that, the impeachment testimony said it.

    Zelensky is sitting down at the table with Putin right now knowing that the US doesn’t 100% have it’s back against Russian aggression. Russian soldiers have occupied Crimea and eastern Ukraine for years.

    Trump wasn’t colluding with Ukraine, he was extorting it. The conspiracy theories he believes in were hatched by Russian intelligence services. It’s pure disinformation bought hook, line and sinker by our idiot president and the republican party. They are amplifying russian talking points.

  95. 1595
    Bumble says:

    By OA @ 1565:

    You should really consider listening/reading other media sources besides left-leaning ones to get a little bit of diversification. For Trump to be a Russian spy/ally and then to start colluding with Ukraine doesn’t make any sense as these two countries absolutely hate each other.

    So you think this whole impeachment thing is a sham because it is impossible for Trump to be friendly with both Russia AND Ukraine? How did everyone else miss it?!

    Before you condescend to pfft about needing different news sources, Trump isn’t charged with “colluding” with Ukraine. He isn’t friendly to Ukraine. He is charged with blackmailing Ukraine with the threat of withholding US aid which would benefit Ukraine in its fight against Russia. That isn’t exactly “collusion,” it isn’t something you do to your friends. It might even be pro-Russia.

    I’m not saying Trump is a Russian asset. I’m not saying he wasn’t fairly elected. I’m not saying the Dems don’t have it out for him. I’m saying—stay with me—that Bill Clinton should have been impeached and removed for lying to a grand jury, but Senate Dems saved him, and we have had ever-increasing political polarization and destruction ever since, tribalism rules now, and so few people make any sense anymore, and i’m afraid for my country.

    P.S. – I only feel a little bit bad about being so off-topic from RE because Tim hasn’t posted any new content in 3 months.

  96. 1596
    OA says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1566

    The issue here is people have no idea what to believe anymore, so much has been thrown at people in such a short time. Most will agree that Trump is a douche and is hard to stand, but I don’t buy any of the impeachment nonsense. If the DNC wants to win the presidency in 2020, the solution should be to back good quality candidate(s), not impeachment. I think this will backfire significantly for them.

    Stepping back for a second will make most acknowledge that life is pretty good right now (401k’s are growing, economy is doing well, unemployment is low, etc). And many will definitely consider this when voting.

  97. 1597

    Its Yuban Time, Take Your Water Proof Boots and Rubber Scuba Suit Off From the Noah’s Ark Flood Rain Outside and Read the Brief:

    “… Boeing Starliner capsule launches, but hits trouble
    Boeing’s new crew capsule veered off course in orbit minutes after blasting off early this morning on its first test flight, a crucial dress rehearsal for next year’s planned launch with astronauts. Controllers are scrambling to fix the situation. No humans are on board, just Christmas gifts for the astronauts at the International Space Station and a dummy named after a famous woman, complete with a red polka-dot head scarf. ..”

    SWE’s take: This is what happens to a commercial aerospace company that laid off a lion’s share of its skilled and experience rocket scientist workers for low paid village idiots from foreign countries….LOL…even that “joke Musk company Spacex” makes exploding regurgitated junk out of old NASA inventions that blows up all the time too. Time to go back to inventing new/reliable inventions with NASA safety engineering again, make it great again…LOL…Trump wants NASA on the moon by 2024. Poptart “green” college graduates are better than experienced/skilled rocket scientists…LOL

    “…

  98. 1598

    Almost Daily Violence and Murder in Seattle Brief:

    “… The driver who crashed a van into a busy Burien store was high on meth, according to charging documents. The documents outline the chaos that injured 10 people at Ross Dress for Less on Monday as the van “plowed approximately 40 feet through people, strollers, the check-out section … before coming to rest on top of a toddler,” whose heart stopped. Part of the incident was captured on surveillance video….”

    SWE’s Take: Not to worry, the “high on Meth” van just smashed into 10 Burien people and the toddler sounds almost dead.

    Good News: We don’t get our MASSIVE property tax increases from King County until Valentines Day…LOL

  99. 1599

    RE: Blurtman @ 1554

    It’s time for me to come clean. I did indeed “pass documents” to Erik on multiple occasions this year.

  100. 1600
    Brian says:

    Wow, there is only one SFH with a garage on the Eastside between Bothell and Newcastle that’s under $600K.

  101. 1601
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1567
    Agreed. Trump is ugly and repulsive.

    He also keeps the economy and America strong. I’d consider voting Democrat if they had a good candidate, but they don’t.

  102. 1602
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1570
    Haha! We pass documents repeatedly.

  103. 1603
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Brian @ 1571

    We interrupt this political debate with a word from our sponsor, the King County real estate market.

    Some time back I said the trend lines would put us at 2000 units of inventory or less for the end of 2019. Here is the update.

    I checked the Redfin numbers for the end of November against the NWMLS numbers and Redfin was only off by 49 (not the 300 I originally thought or the 140 Ardell gave us as a correction). I have no way of knowing, but think they have been tweaking their algorithm.).

    Currently Redfin is showing inventory at 1975. If we put in the 50 unit adjustment factor, that puts us at 2025. With another 11 days in the month, we will certainly go below 2000. More likely we will be closer to 1900. It could be lower.

    We are really back near 2016 levels of inventory. It is going to be a very interesting spring market.

    This puts us

  104. 1604
    Beano says:

    Seattle RE will see a 5% bump this spring. Good properties more, lesser properties 0.

    That’s fair.

  105. 1605
    Justsomedude12 says:

    What a delightfully bizarre cast of characters on here!!!

  106. 1606
    Beano says:

    By Erik @ 1572:

    RE: OA @ 1567
    Agreed. Trump is ugly and repulsive.

    He also keeps the economy and America strong. I’d consider voting Democrat if they had a good candidate, but they don’t.

    I share this sentiment. Trump doesn’t make me proud. But the upside, hopefully, is that he shattered many conventions of American politics that might result in improvements.

  107. 1607
    uwp says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 1576:

    What a delightfully bizarre cast of characters on here!!!

    This we can all agree on!

  108. 1608
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1574:

    We are really back near 2016 levels of inventory. It is going to be a very interesting spring market.

    And today’s prices are about 1/4 higher. Sure it will be a very interesting spring market…

  109. 1609
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1579

    Two more data points.

    1) A couple so-so new constrution box-houses on a dark, busy street in a Lake Washington neighborhood are comps for a project I have in the area. They have been sitting at the same high price point since May or June. There was so little action that they even pulled the staging. I felt sorry for the new builder who got talked into this site. Suddenly this week– Sold. Perhaps they held a fire sale, but I don’t think so. I am going to find out.

    2) This week I got a very strong pre-sale offer on a house I am building in the 705 area. It won’t be done until late March or early April. Of course it could still fall through, but we are supposed to sign this afternoon. The buyer is very motivated and very aware of the fact that inventory has dried up.

    People know that the way to succeed is to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. But that takes good information and real guts. Instead people go along with the wisdom of the herd.

    To put it in economic terms, supply-side scarcity creates demand side motivation. Or to quote an acquaintance, “It makes no sense, but buyers like to buy in a seller’s market.”

    A few months ago, I also said we would see a 4-5% price increase in the spring market. I am conservative and will stick with that. There are a lot of reasons to believe that it will not be more. Recognition lag effect. Long-in-the-tooth economic expansion. Impeachment/Election Year/Toxic Politics.

    But in point of fact, if inventory continues to go down as we head into the new year, price increases could in fact be higher.

  110. 1610
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1580:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1579

    To put it in economic terms, supply-side scarcity creates demand side motivation.

    You keep talking like there aren’t any limits on demand.

    Prior to the crash, when people didn’t need to prove their income or their assets, and they could get 100% loans, your logic was absolutely correct.

    Home purchasing became mostly just a game of chicken and who would be willing to pay more.

    Then, before the capital controls in China, the market was juiced with another very significant group of buyers to whom price wasn’t really an object.

    Neither of those catalysts are really in play now, so there are limits to the number of qualified buyers who can afford homes in the higher six digits or more.

    Not sure why this never enters into your logic when you’re posting about supply and demand.

  111. 1611
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1581 – It is often forgotten or not understood in the first place that with supply and demand, the demand is at a given price.

    For instance there may be great demand for a home priced at $500K, but there may be zero demand for that same home priced at $600K.

    This is what people are missing when they believe prices will keep going up just because demand is high.

  112. 1612
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1580
    Congratulations on the potential sale!

  113. 1613
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1581
    This has been discussed on here more times than I can count. Affordability has a loose correlation at best with housing prices. My guess is you disagree, but it’s not debatable. Tim graphed affordability vs price years ago to prove it. You saying what you are saying proves to me that you have a low level of understanding about Seattle real estate.

    I like beat on commenters on this site for a laugh or to try and help them see the path forward. I read most all of deerhawke’s comments and the guy is correct every time. I’ve been waiting to pounce out of the shadows and catch him on something, but he gets Seattle real estate. I have to concede he knows a lot more than me, not that I’m anyone special.

    I’d start off attacking the people that have no idea about Seattle real estate such as Eastsider, Kenmoron, Sfrz, the guy driving from open house to open house in Woodinville, wreckingbull, Justme, you, and many more. These people are so full of it and themselves. Deerhawke is different. He really gets it and we need more people on this site that understand the market and less fools.

  114. 1614
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1584

    Wow, you have all of the conviction of a true believer, but not much of the humility or critical thinking that would soften the edge.

    You must be a hoot at parties.

    OK, let’s walk through this one step at a time…

    Why do so many people buy homes that give them two hour commutes every day?

  115. 1615
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1584 –

    Wow, you have all of the conviction of a true believer, but not much of the humility or critical thinking that would soften the edge.

    You must be a hoot at parties.

    OK, let’s walk through this one step at a time…

    Why do so many people buy homes that give them two hour commutes every day?

    Apologies if there’s a double post, the first one didn’t seem to go through…

  116. 1616
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1585
    I got married last year, but before that I was a party animal. In fact, I met my wife when I took a trip just to party with friend I met in Seattle at another party. I like to have a good time.

    You are trying to use logic. That doesn’t apply here. I have a masters degree in engineering, so I am around people all day trying to use logic and sometimes it just doesn’t work. That is the case here JSB. I’m telling you point blank, your logic doesn’t work in this case! Not debatable.

    If you have to dig into causation, it probably has to do with outside investment because Seattle is transitioning to a world class city. But I’m not foolish enough to pretend I know the driver. I do know housing prices in Seattle do not follow affordability. If you were smart, you’d go get an independent answer and apologize, but my guess is you keep repeating the same incorrect statement. This is my last comment on this as you are just wasting my time.

  117. 1617
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1584 – I made a 30% return on my money in Burien on a property I owned in Burien for a few years. Burien is slowly ticking up, You could smell the prices going up in that area when I looked around at the time of purchase.

    BUT Burien is the most violent place I have ever owned – including Atlanta.

    In Burien, I am under a subpoena to testify in a murder trial. There were numerous murders in that area including 3 within a block all committed by illegal aliens they cannot find most likely because they left the country.

    I told the King Co DA to pound sand. He put me under threat with his anti-ICE stance. I’m happy to return the favor to metro-Seattle voters.

    My next purchase will be somewhere outside of King County or any area within reach of ST3 type initiatives.

    I just bought a house in Florida within the realm of influence of the Virgin Trains High-Speed rail system. Guess who is paying for that real train?: THE RIDERS.

    Get a clue Seattle.

  118. 1618
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1587
    You seem pretty smart regarding where you are buying. Great job on your 30% gain. Hang on a few more years. I think Burien is a great investment. Near ST3 station is also a wonderful idea.

    I buy at the King County auction because that seems like the best way I know to get deals. I just jump on the best deal I can in king County. I want infinite ROI, which means buying below market value is most important. Getting a great deal means being open to all areas using my method. I like to buy and get all my money back in the refinance and buy again. One book I was reading called it “the velocity of money.” Using the same money over and over to buy assets.

  119. 1619
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1586

    “ You are trying to use logic. That doesn’t apply here. ”

    Ah yes, apparently I am not up to speed on the new-age Zen approach to real estate investing where logic doesn’t apply.

    Or, maybe you just realize that you can’t answer the question about why people buy houses so far away from work that they have a two hour commute.

    Not without mentioning that affordability is a factor, anyways…

    If you can’t make a coherent case, it’s no wonder that you’re always attacking the messenger instead of the message.

  120. 1620
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1580

    Here is another trend we should pay attention to. Japanese 10yr yield just turned positive this week after staying negative all year long. Global 10yr yield is trending higher (USA, Germany, Australia). US is not in insolation so interest rate will likely be higher next year.

    If that is the case, it will put downward pressure on prices.

  121. 1621

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1589

    The Queen of England in her speech today announced a 30% discount for first time buyers IF they buy close to where they grew up. We’re not the only ones who see being priced out of the area where you have lived since you were young as a negative. I don’t have that problem. It’s still dirt cheap where I grew up, though I wouldn’t want to live there.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/10585754/queens-speech-first-time-buyer-discounts-homes-grew-up/

  122. 1622
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1589
    Read a graph moron!!!

  123. 1623
    David says:

    By Erik @ 1588:

    RE: David @ 1587
    You seem pretty smart regarding where you are buying. Great job on your 30% gain. Hang on a few more years. I think Burien is a great investment. Near ST3 station is also a wonderful idea.

    I buy at the King County auction because that seems like the best way I know to get deals. I just jump on the best deal I can in king County. I want infinite ROI, which means buying below market value is most important. Getting a great deal means being open to all areas using my method. I like to buy and get all my money back in the refinance and buy again. One book I was reading called it “the velocity of money.” Using the same money over and over to buy assets.

    Good point, though I have sold out of Burien for now. I cannot come back til this murder trial is over sometime next month! They keep delaying it. They don’t know where I am.

  124. 1624
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1593
    Good job pulling some money out of the market.

    How did you acquire the property? Did you get it off the mls?

  125. 1625
  126. 1626
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1582
    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1581

    Of course, there are limits on demand, or rather constraints on demand.

    But in this economy, there is always very substantial demand. There is suppressed generational demand from millennials finally ready to have their own place or a place to raise a family. There is newcomer demand from those relocating here for the jobs, lifestyle, etc. There is demand from people in outlying areas who hate their commute and want to cut their time sitting behind the wheel. There is generational demand from boomers who have launched their kids and want to move into the city for access to the cultural life (Been to the ballet, opera, symphony or theater recently? All boomers.)

    However the truly salient constraints are on supply side. We have mountains and bodies of water hemming in growth. We have the constraints of the Growth Management Act and our transportation system. We have very expensive land prices. Permits become harder and more expensive to obtain every year. Construction costs keep going up in real terms.

    Demand is strong and rising. Supply is mainly fixed and trending down. Substitutes such as renting and commuting from a distance are available but involve real trade-offs and externalities.

    Given these factors, I think you can absolutely use logic to predict the direction of change. But it helps to have a real understanding of some basic economic concepts. Read up on the price elasticity of supply and demand. Pretty dry stuff, but worth it.

  127. 1627

    Imminent Boeing Layoffs Make the Boeing Christmas 10 Day Holiday a Joke?

    Now Pick up your mugs of Yuban, Toss Some Eggnog and a Swig of Your Favorite Black Label….This will kill the holiday blues and read the brief:

    “… Boeing, workers and Renton brace for temporary halt to 737 MAX assembly lines
    Boeing is halting its Renton assembly lines for the grounded 737 MAX next month but won’t lay off workers, the company said this week. News of the temporary shutdown has nearby business owners worrying. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: What’s the difference between a FURLOUGH with no post pay and a layoff? The tooth fairy came but left no $CASH$????

    The Good News: Gas is $2.81/gal at Covington Fredmeyer. Bad news, the sales prices aren’t on the bulk foods we buy, its Christmas…LOL

  128. 1628
    Deerhawke says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1591:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1589

    It’s still dirt cheap where I grew up, though I wouldn’t want to live there.

    Same here. I grew up in Wilmington Delaware. Prices have dropped about 15% since DuPont was bought by Dow. No real anchor industry anymore. Not much going on. I wouldn’t want to live there. It is a place to be from. Seattle is full of people like us and that is part of our demand issue.

  129. 1629
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1596 – I do think there is demand for Seattle area real estate, and the demand will continue. But demand doesn’t matter if people can’t afford the ever higher prices. Sure certain people will always be able to afford sky high prices, but it takes the masses to move the market.

    But hey, I’d love for prices to go to the moon, that would be great for me.

    And yes I’ve taken economics classes where we learned about things like the price elasticity of demand, and yes it is very dry.

  130. 1630
    Eastsider says:

    Zillow’s one year forecast for Seattle home prices is an increase of…. 0.5%!

    Interesting to see that rents have stayed flat in last 4 years!

    Now explain how you can justify an investment rental property at today’s prices unless price growth is expected to be in double digits in coming years. Wishful thinking?

    Merry Christmas ;)

    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

  131. 1631
    Eastsider says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 1599:

    But demand doesn’t matter if people can’t afford the ever higher prices. Sure certain people will always be able to afford sky high prices, but it takes the masses to move the market.

    Stalling rents pretty much confirmed that we have reached the limits.

  132. 1632
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1599 – Of course if foreign money comes back (or some other x-factor), that could juice prices further. But those types of things are impossible to predict.

  133. 1633

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1574

    Some day we should meet with a laptop so I can show you how the numbers do and don’t reconcile and why.

    Right now I am seeing 1,953 SFH in the sidebar and 582 Condos.

    SFH not including townhouses, double-wides and houseboats with a minimum price of $10,000 to make sure there are no rentals in there and a minimum lot size of 3,000 to make sure there aren’t any townhouses in there and bedrooms of at least 2 because I found some 0 bedroom teardowns that were really vacant land pretending to be houses = 1,569 Taking out the lot parameter I get 354 townhouses about 100 of which are condo townhouses. So that SFH seems to include the townhouses.
    Condos taking out all of the parameters except $10,000 minimum to exclude rentals comes up as 728. so I’m not sure where that 582 is coming from.

    When I do my year end stats for the areas where I work I can parse out every property, but honestly, I don’t ever care about “inventory” as a broad stat. Inventory to an agent is usually 0 or 1 to maybe 5. All of my 2019 buyer clients are in their houses except 1 who can’t quite decide where they want to live. All of my seller clients are sold. I have one going to both sell and buy client lined up for early 2020 and 5 next year buyers not counting the 7 investors I’ve been not finding anything good for since 2016. :)

    Broad inventory is not something an agent looks at normally. That’s why I read every comment on Seattle Bubble since the beginning of 2006. Just to be sure I’m on top of the things I don’t do in my personal stats. Of course I read a lot of other things too, but the comments here are really a good source of info and likely one of the best sources there is, since there aren’t any others as to the local market at present. :) I’ve never read the posts since I have better access to the stats than The Tim. I’ve always only read the comments, so not much change for me except SWE reading me the morning paper and offering me coffee. If it weren’t “Yuban” I might take him up on that. Who drinks Yuban?

    I’m wondering if posting here and posting as a Redfin employee is a conflict of interest for The Tim. I’m sure he doesn’t want to shut it down…yet, but maybe he can’t post here and there at the same time. Maybe he should just put a link to his Redfin stuff here as a post. Not sure what the solution is. But I suspect he has a good reason for not posting here since he’s quite active there and elsewhere.

  134. 1634
    Brianna says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1603

    LOL! I had the same thoughts as you did about “Yuban” 😂

  135. 1635
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1601

    You want to believe Zillow, go ahead. That has never been an impressive organization to me.

    Stalling rents (which means only a 3.3 percent increase) are a factor of
    1) overbuilding somewhat during the past 5 years
    2) builders producing smaller units. The rents may look great but 300-350 SF does not live all that well
    3) when renters get tired of living small and have a down payment put together, they exit the rental pool and buy a condo or a house share

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1599

    Yes, it takes the masses to move the market, but remember that sellers are part of the equation. They get a vote too.

    (At least in the case of discretionary sellers. Non-discretionary sellers are dead, dying, heading to retirement facilities, getting divorced, taking a transfer, etc).

    Right now a lot of discretionary sellers are deciding to hold.

  136. 1636
    northender says:

    Here’s a new listing I find interesting. 600k for a new 800 sf house on a 2,000 sf lot.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/7756-4th-Ave-NE-98115/home/108760

    Driving by for the past year while these were being built I assumed it was 2 big houses, each with a DADU. And that’s what the city permit records show. The city and county maps show only 2 lots, not 4. But this DADU is listed on its own. As far as I know there’s no way a DADU can be sold by itself, without the parent house. If there is I’m curious to see how quickly this sells, with 2 new houses next door that tower over it, no off-street parking, and a vagrant camp across the street that constantly has a shopping cart on the sidewalk.

  137. 1637
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1596:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1582
    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1581
    Of course, there are limits on demand, or rather constraints on demand.

    Bingo. And sometimes those constraints can be influenced by outside factors.

    In honor of the recently presented Zen-like “no logic is logic” view of real estate, and the gentle suggestion that I read a graph, I will respond to you with a haiku.

    As a reference, please see the year-over-year housing price trends graph above, starting at roughly the early 2000’s.

    Three growth periods
    Each with their own catalysts
    All are mostly gone

  138. 1638
    David says:

    By Erik @ 1594:

    RE: David @ 1593
    Good job pulling some money out of the market.

    How did you acquire the property? Did you get it off the mls?

    By Erik @ 1588:

    RE: David @ 1587
    You seem pretty smart regarding where you are buying. Great job on your 30% gain. Hang on a few more years. I think Burien is a great investment. Near ST3 station is also a wonderful idea.

    I buy at the King County auction because that seems like the best way I know to get deals. I just jump on the best deal I can in king County. I want infinite ROI, which means buying below market value is most important. Getting a great deal means being open to all areas using my method. I like to buy and get all my money back in the refinance and buy again. One book I was reading called it “the velocity of money.” Using the same money over and over to buy assets.

    Good point, though I have sold out of Burien for now. I cannot come back til this murder trial is over sometime next month! They keep delaying it. They don’t know where I am.

    When Atlanta came out of the housing depression (read Obama Depression – aka Warren Depresssion in the future), I sold ASAP. I had been looking in Seattle at lower priced properties in areas that were so close to Seattle that they would rise in value. Burien seemed to fit the bill.

    Things I have learned:

    1) Don’t bet on gentrification unless your timeline is 10-20 years. Meaning you need to buy low cost properties in gentrifying neighborhoods or the risk is too high. And buy them close to main roads close to retail areas if possible.

    2) Get a concealed carry permit.

    3) Evaluate the undertow of that neighborhood. If there are low-quality people there, you will probably leave before they do. You cannot beat the undertow.

    4) See how many Pitbull owners live around there. If you see even one, you are in the undertow.

  139. 1639
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1594 – Oh, and I paid cash for everything I own the past 10 years. Though I did previously use LIBOR loans to build my equity.

    It might be a good time to use those again (or whatever they are called these days) if rates are going to stay down. I mean no one was talking about negative rates when I used LIBOR previously.

    I mostly used my equity to build stock purchases though.

  140. 1640
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1605

    From RentJungle –

    As of November 2019, average rent for an apartment in Seattle, WA is $2151 which is a 1.16% decrease from last year when the average rent was $2176 , and a 3.25% decrease from last month when the average rent was $2221.

    6/2016 Av Rent = $2,191
    11/2019 Av Rent = $2,151

    You can clearly see that rent is stalled. If you want to adjust for sq footage (data?), you should also adjust for age. You can’t do that, so you are just making unsubstantiated claims.

    https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-seattle-rent-trends/

  141. 1641
    David says:

    Yesterday, I rose at 6:30am to watch the Boeing Starliner launch. I was close enough to walk outside and see the huge orange glow on the horizon as it lit up.

    I bought a lot of Boeing stock last year. Their Government relations guy had a group at his wedding last week beating up Trump supporters. The CEO had not talked to the test pilots who were analyzing MCAS when he appeared before Congress recently.

    Is Boeing run by complete idiots?

    How would Boeing go South economically effect housing?

    I called and complained about the Boeing Government guy – hopefully, they fire that dumbass. Bezos has already bought the most expensive newspaper in the world – $10B dollars of lost Government sales because he uses that paper to attack Trump proves that Bezos isn’t the smartest guy in the room (also schtuping a woman he met at her family’s party and breaking up their home was a poor reflection on his poor character).

  142. 1642
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: northender @ 1606

    This is what the new code is being used for. It is called an air-rights condo. The main house and this house form a 2 unit condo association. At least a couple dozen have been sold.

  143. 1643
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1609

    Look, you are the guy who refused to believe that for-sale SFR in the area have been getting dramatically smaller — even after Ardell presented the data and proved you wrong. Why should you believe that the exact same thing is happening in the apartment market?

    You don’t have any skin in the game and you don’t have any on-the-ground knowledge of this market. If you want to believe things that aren’t true— fine by me. I don’t care. There are people out there who still believe that Apollo 11 was a hoax and that the earth is flat.

    For the rest of you, google the words “Seattle SEDU” or alternatively Seattle Small Efficiency Dwelling Unit. These are the SDCI’s successor to the Apodment. A couple thousand have been built in the last few years. One acquaintance has nearly 200 units in 4 structures with more on the way. They are even building them in Tacoma.

    For the rest of you, look

  144. 1644
    Juststoppedby says:

    A few days ago I stumbled across a very unique and insightful book that I somehow discovered some years back.

    There are no references to real estate investing, so I don’t mention it here to promote a particular argument or discussion point.

    Simply put, it is a very unique perspective on how history has been used and/or misused to make decisions at the highest levels of the government. The authors do a great job of communicating a framework that can be used in order to facilitate quality decision-making.

    In a way, the case studies are dated, but in another way they are an incredibly interesting view of some very significant historical events.

    In any case, if you have any interest in history, or just an interest in learning how to use history most effectively in your decision making processes, I highly recommend this book:

    Thinking In Time

    https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Time-Uses-History-Decision-Makers/dp/0029227917/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=thinking+in+time+the+uses+of+history+for+decision-makers&qid=1576987961&sprefix=thinking+in+tim&sr=8-1#aw-udpv3-customer-reviews_feature_div

  145. 1645
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1600:

    Zillow’s one year forecast for Seattle home prices is an increase of…. 0.5%!

    Interesting to see that rents have stayed flat in last 4 years!

    Now explain how you can justify an investment rental property at today’s prices unless price growth is expected to be in double digits in coming years. Wishful thinking?

    Merry Christmas ;)

    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values/

    If one is buying as investment property then that’s a whole separate conversation and I would stay away from this market.

    If it’s for a long term home then the zillow link you provided is irrelevant.

  146. 1646

    RE: Eastsider @ 1600
    But Zillow Also Predicts a General Downward RE Price Degradation from That NAR URL Erik provided and Both of Us Agreed Was Probably a Fake

    I’m getting to the point I don’t believe any thing they tell us, I need to independently come up with my own conclusion using my own raw data [they rarely explain their’s properly]. If you’re investing avoid following the village idiot lemmings over the HOAX impeachment cliff. It leads to doom, ask the Dems.

    Find a specific plan to invest and make money and i.e., don’t be ashamed of flipping foreclosures instead of listed homes, its not EVIL to the poor victims of evictions at all. If you don’t grab it up some slimy attorney of RE agent will…LOL

  147. 1647

    Time to Update Your “HUGE Debits for Christmas Expenses in Your Check Book”, and drink your Yuban to forget about it, and read the Brief:

    “…Raised in the U.S. but forced to restart life in Mexico City, thousands of deportees find a chance to reconnect to their heritage but face language and cultural barriers as they try to rebuild their lives in an unfamiliar land. Read more….”

    SWE’s Take: So why did you illegally come to America in the first place? Ya want blame, look in the mirror dummy, our legal citizen American convicts have to get over this blame America for their criminal behavior too. I’ve even heard this lately, “Trump caused my stroke” LOL, that’s psychotic, see a therapist. Everyone’s suddenly a victim of their choosing?…LOL

    Good News: The Huskies won the Las Vegas Bowl and the bad news, as our first decent coach Peterson in decades quits. I see Peterson had a better win/loss record [what his contract pay depends on] when he coached Boise St….the PAC-12 is too even matched now, any team can beat any team…ask Peterson.

  148. 1648

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1613
    Great Idea, I’ll Try to Order That Book When I Get My Next Collector Book Shipment

    If its a brand new title for like $20+ a copy, I wait like 6 months and grab it up later new or used for a few dollars a copy plus a modest $3/book media mail rate. AMZ E-Books are making hard covers really cheap lately, albeit new authors have a much better chance publishing like eBook short stories, the best seller authors inform me. Ebooks go for like $6, but you can’t loan ’em out…LOL…hard covers can be cashed in later at used book stores too. I hear vinyl records are replacing CDs lately, better sound quality they say.

  149. 1649

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1617
    The History of Ukraine and Its Likely Involvement With WWIII With NATO, Hasn’t Changed Much Historically in 30 Years. Based on Tom Clancy’s 1986 Red Storm Rising. They just renamed the GRU and KGB to the Russian Mafia…LOL…Ukraine is gifted at disinformation, spying and corruption there….times haven’t changed at all…LOL…go get ’em Trump, its your duty as President to protect America from evil Russian/Soviet actors.

  150. 1650
    Eastsider says:

    By OA @ 1614:

    If one is buying as investment property then that’s a whole separate conversation and I would stay away from this market.

    If it’s for a long term home then the zillow link you provided is irrelevant.

    If investors believe that housing is overpriced relative to rent and income, it should be relevant to potential homebuyers.

  151. 1651
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1612:

    Look, you are the guy who refused to believe that for-sale SFR in the area have been getting dramatically smaller — even after Ardell presented the data and proved you wrong. Why should you believe that the exact same thing is happening in the apartment market?

    Another unsubstantiated claim. “Refused to believe…”?

  152. 1652
    northender says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1611
    Thanks for sharing that knowledge!

  153. 1653

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1611

    They were common in The Beach Cities in L.A. in Manhattan Beach. We called them “two on a lots” and yes, classified as condos as they were “free standing townhomes” built two on a lot after the city wouldn’t let the lots be subdivided anymore.

    I was hoping Seattle would do the “tall and skinnies” that are 1,700 to 2,300 sf or so. They built them in the late 80s an early 90’s in places like Licton Springs. They would split the standard 50 x 100 lot up the middle and make two 25 x 100 lots. Made for a much better house with a small yard before they nixed being able to split them.

    These are tiny at 2 bedroom 1 bath and 800 sf. They don’t make nearly as much sense. I can’t believe a builder is making money on those. Does the City subsidize them as “affordable housing”? They couldn’t build all 4 taller and larger? Why so tiny?

  154. 1654
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1622

    The code when that one was permitted limited detached accessory dwelling units (DADU) to 800 sf. The recent code change (effective in early August of this year) now allows DADU to be 1000 sf. So you will start seeing some of those come to market in 2021 as Air Rights Condos (ARC).

    Under the new code, the main house on a 5000 sf lot is allowed to be 2500 sf at or above grade level, plus 1000 sf ADU below grade plus 1000 sf DADU. So technically you can get 4500 sf on a 5000 sf lot. We’ll see if that really happens. It is a question of whether the numbers pencil.

    I know three people who are permitting a 1000 sf DADU behind their existing houses. All three will be rentals with the option of selling them separately as ARC later.

    I will bet that once we start to see this kind of thing built, the neighbors will go crazy and pressure the city council to reverse the density in the new code. Another factor there is that no parking is required for ADUs and DADUs. People talk glibly about the need for further density in the abstract, but when you have to park on the street half a block from your house during a driving rain, it can change your mind.

  155. 1655
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1619

    Sure it can be relevant but If someone is looking for a long term home (15+ years) for a primary residence, and can afford the prices, then it’s not as relevant.

    If a potential buyer thinks there’s a good chance he/she might not live here in the next 2-3 years then I would definitely agreed about not buying.

    As for real estate investing, there’s more money to be made outside of king county right now (even out of state), prices are way too high to make any money in renting.

  156. 1656
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1608
    You are trading houses like they are stocks. That’s an interesting strategy. I guess I am too, except I want to sell houses to pay off other houses and get a passive income stream so I don’t have to rely on my earned income anymore. If I choose to work, it’s extra cash in my pocket. That’s my goal I guess although I don’t even have one paid off yet. :)

  157. 1657
    Mackenzie says:

    Is there any way to tell what the apartment vacancy rates are? I have noticed that nearly all the new apartment complexes that have been built in Bellevue and Redmond in the last few years have signs posted offering one or two months free rent. I can’t believe they would be offering such deals if they had low vacancy rates.

    I also notice that most of these new apartment buildings are only partially lit at night, indicating that lots of units are empty. And yet there are huge new developments under construction that will be coming on the market in the next two years.

  158. 1658
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1618

    SWE, I won’t get into the politics aspect of it, but I did actually re-read the first part of Red Storm Rising a few months ago, and was struck by how strong the parallels were the current events. The parallels are eerie.

    I’m guessing the Russians read that book a bunch back in the day (The wargaming was excellent) and I’m sure that it is still in their consciousness…

    BTW, that book I recommended can get a bit into the weeds, but I think you probably have to get to that level of detail for the authors to really illustrate their points. Regards,

    JSB

  159. 1659

    RE: David @ 1610
    Yeah, Pfft Bragged About Buying $50K Worth of Boeing stock a Year ago, Right After the MAX 8 Crashes

    We haven’t heard from Pfft since, LOL…I warned him then to sell that toilet paper stock ASAP. The “Seattle area lemming effect” on assuming “Boeing is somehow protected from too much outsourcing” is like getting sprayed in the face by the proverbial Circus Clown…i.e., Trump’s Trade War With China, or better put, China’s trade war with America in the Trump cross-hairs.

    Its not that Boeing should have guessed the NWO outsourcing beer party ran out of keg beer, its Boeing should have stayed sober and not attended the assault “beer party” on American wages at all. No ethics in my book, especially with the lower taxes Trump handed Boeing and AMZ. Ask FCA, when Trump gave them a big tax savings, they moved truck plants from Mexico back to America….too bad that honest CEO died. Ford and GM need to learn a lesson from FCA too.

  160. 1660

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1626
    My Brother-in-law [an ex-Army Lt Col] Disagrees With Us About Ukraine Currently Co-towing to the Russians, because they’re no Longer a Soviet Satellite when Regan knocked the Berlin Wall down. I did too until I read Crichton’s Book…when/if Russia attacks NATO, Ukraine is right in the middle of Russia….they’ll put out welcome mats for invasion IMO rather than face Russia’s missiles and troops. They’ll resume their old “organized crime” KGB jobs too IMO, its in their DNA.

    After reading the “Red Storm Rising” book I’m wondering why the Hades we send that Russian Mafia hotspot any aid at all?

  161. 1661
    Juststoppedby says:

    Over 13,000 dead Ukrainians indicate that Ukraine is not interested in rolling out the welcome mat.

    We definitely don’t want Russia to be in an expansion state of mind.

    Somebody once said

    “ Russia without Ukraine is a country. Russia with Ukraine is an empire.”

    No offense intended, but while I have an interest in the topic, I definitely try to stay away from political discussions. This will be my last word on the topic. Best regards,

    JSB

  162. 1662

    OK, You’ve Balanced Your Christmas Checkbooks and There’s Still Money Left, Time to Celebrate and Gulp Yuban while reading the Brief:

    “…Boeing CEO resigns and is replaced by board chairman as company finishes year of crisis

    The aerospace company announced that chief executive Dennis A. Muilenburg is resigning and being replaced by board chairman David L. Calhoun. Boeing has been upended this year by a massive crisis over crashes of its 737 Max airplane and, more recently, a flawed rocket launch.
    Read more »…”

    SWE’s Take: I give the new CEO 3-6 months before he’s fired or retired….my guess, Boeing will go through 2 new CEOS before they re-organize against outsourcing American jobs.

    “…Car-tab confusion: Vehicle owners are getting December car-tab renewal notices five to six weeks late, and some may even get the bills after their tabs are supposed to be affixed to their license plates. The state is offering advice on how vehicle owners can hurry up the process…”

    SWE’s Take: Car Tab Confusion? How about “illegal” car tab progressive Fascism against our American citizen state voters?

    “…A Pierce County sheriff’s deputy shot and wounded a domestic-violence suspect last night, just a day after another deputy was killed when his patrol car crashed as he rushed to help fellow officers. He leaves behind a pregnant wife and a 2-year-old son. “We love him,” said an emotional sergeant…”

    SWE’s Take: The almost daily horrifying news story on “Seattle inner city Detroit style violence” throughout the Seattle area. The Sunday episode had a daily occurrence too.

    “…Bellevue is planning for trains, buses, bicycles, walking, vanpools and maybe even autonomous vehicles to keep people moving, as Amazon plans its tallest building yet and the city prepares for big tech companies to add roughly 18,000 downtown jobs in the next five years. Don’t miss the historical photo that drives home how dramatic the city’s transformation has been…”

    SWE’s take: Bellevue’s $700K home area needs more OVERPOPULATION $20/hr avg per capita waged jobs like school kids need Measles…they need a homelessness budget with this kind of growth incorporated. Its not like homelessness aid is provided magically by the tooth fairy….LOL

    “…Pack your patience, holiday travelers. Alaska Airlines passengers at Sea-Tac Airport have been spending hours on the tarmac, missing their connections and losing their bags. A shortage of baggage handlers caught Alaska by surprise. ..”

    SWE’s Take: Now our luggage is getting stolen at much higher rates at airports?

    “…Electric-vehicle charging stations are popping up all over — almost. Look at a map of where the stations are, and you’ll see a big stretch of Seattle left out. The reasons are complicated. But communities of color will bear the brunt of climate change, so let’s make sure they have access to electric vehicles and other climate-friendly technologies, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes…”

    SWE’s take: Assuming ethnic groups that make lower wages are hurting because they can’t plug in a new “Uber Rich Electric Golf Cart” is a complete joke. Its like “where’s Waldo?”, they number in the handful and you can’t find them when they don’t exist.

    “…Police are searching for an armed robber who demanded cash at a Capitol Hill pot shop — but then left and forgot to take it. Employees locked him out before he realized his mistake, then he fired at the locked door, police say…”

    SWE’s Take: Today’s daily “inner city Detroit style” violence attacks pot shops in Seattle too.

    Good News: Tomorrow’s Christmas Eve, my day to [Christmas Day on Wednesday too] bring the special needs bunk buddies their holiday dinners….”Merry Christmas” Bubbleheads and pass it on too, the Hades with the Snow Flakes that think its politically incorrect…LOL

  163. 1663

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1629
    I Agree

    But whether we like it or not politics drives Seattle Area taxes, right or wrong.

    I do hope you’re right, but if we assisted Ukraine during a “possible” WWIII attack against NATO by Russia, how would we do it without making things far worse between Russia and America? I’m not sure what we’ll do, but I assume America First if its Trump in power. Crichton’s book makes a global land/sea/air conventional war like the game Battleship…its a huge convoluted mess requiring more luck than skill. Reminds me of predicting RE prices in Seattle…LOL

  164. 1664

    Solar Cells to Increase Our Electric Grid Capacity for MASS Electric Vehicle Charging Stations [mostly used at night anyway] is a joke too

    https://www.foxbangor.com/national-news/seattle-sees-its-darkest-day-in-recorded-history-report/

    Seattle is like Denmark, dark and cloudy and Denmark currently uses “CARBON FOOTPRINT” coal to charge its electric vehicles, ask ’em….they now cause more potential Climate Change than gas car use? LOL

  165. 1665
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Softwarengineer, do you own stock in Kraft Heinz Co. by any chance? I can’t help but notice your pointed references to one of their beverage brands. I see their stock price has risen in conjunction with these references. Coincidence? Maybe not.

  166. 1666
    N says:

    After so many years of very few new condo projects (or conversions), it looks like downtown is on the verge of thousand(s) of new units, albeit at the high end of the market.

    https://seattle.curbed.com/maps/seattle-downtown-skyscrapers-high-rise-construction

  167. 1667
    Juststoppedby says:

    Update on capital controls/capital flight from China. More enforcement to combat increased activity…

    Note the $1.2 trillion that left China in 2015-16 before capital controls were implemented.

    Hey, wasn’t there some appreciation of Seattle home prices around then?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/money-has-been-leaving-china-at-a-record-rate/ar-BBY9U4i?li=BBnbfcN

    “Beijing is stepping up the battle to stop money flowing out of China as the country contends with economic woes and trade war tensions that have eased but show no sign of ending altogether.

    Money was leaving the country at a record clip earlier this year through unauthorized channels, according to analysts. That’s bad news for China, which needs to keep financial reserves high to maintain confidence in its markets.

    Now Chinese officials are trying harder than ever to avoid a repeat of the financial scare four years ago that sapped its money reserves by hundreds of billions of dollars.“


    “ Cracking down

    The agency has already started cracking down on capital flight. In November, it fined Chinabank Payments $4.2 million — one of the largest-ever fines SAFE has imposed — for moving money overseas.”

    “ The online payments firm, a subsidiary of billionaire Richard Liu’s JD.com, told CNN Business that the transfers were made by “external merchants” who had taken advantage of loopholes. But it said it felt “deeply sorry” and would reflect on its management.”


    “ Lessons learned

    China has good reason to keep its money in the country. The last time China experienced this kind of capital flight was in 2015 and 2016, when the economy faltered and the People’s Bank of China suddenly devalued the yuan, roiling global financial markets.

    On average, the amount of money leaving China was equivalent to 6% of the country’s GDP in each of those two years, according to an estimate by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. In total, China lost $1.28 trillion, and it was forced to tap into its foreign exchange reserves to prevent its currency from rapidly depreciating even further.

    China’s foreign reserves shrank by more than $800 billion in those two years before recovering some losses in 2017. Since then, Beijing has significantly tightened control of capital and made it more difficult for people to exchange money for foreign currency or transfer funds abroad.

    “Chinese regulators have learned their lessons during the frightening period of 2015-16,” analysts from Bank of America wrote in November.”

  168. 1668
    sfrz says:

    I’m here so I don’t get fined. BEAST MODE

  169. 1669
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1635

    Agents I know tell me that Chinese people who are determined to get money out of the country are finding plenty of ways to do it. Not on nearly the same scale as 2015-2017, but definitely up from 2018 and early this past year. Much of the money is coming through Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Chinese community in Vietnam. Generally it is in the guise of commercial transactions. I was at a Christmas party this week and heard that the capitol controls are tougher so “you need to just be more patient and more creative”. Chinese people are, no question, both patient and creative.

    The single family market in Seattle has been absolutely on fire as we end the year. At a time when the market is usually asleep, the pace of sell-through has been impressive. True SF are moving very fast, both resales and new construction. There is very little inventory.

    Even the glut of me-too 900-950 SF skinny 2 BR 2 BA rowhouses/townhouses has begun to move and sell through.

    The current KC inventory numbers back this up. Adjusting to calculate NWMLS figures, we are currently at about 1925 units, The market is eliminating inventory at a pace where we could end the year at 1850.

    Back to the future— 2016 here we are.

  170. 1670

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1633
    That Must Be Yuban?

    I hate paying $7-8 for a mere 12 oz bag [the coffee goes stale quicker in bags BTW] of Starbucks or equivalent when I can get a 37.2 oz can of Christmas Yuban…yeah the Starbucks tastes a bit better, to me, just a bit better. Certainly not worth $3/mug [for the cheap Starbucks plain mugs] compared to self-brewing your own Yuban [or equivalent]. I bought MJB at Winco for $5/can for 27 oz size, they ran out of the $6.88 jumbo Yuban cans…LOL…I’ve been given compliments on coffee when I served MJB, and yes, it does have a rich Yuban flavor too…

    Folks buy what’s on sale, and those stocks go up?

  171. 1671

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1635 – China is Losing Money?

    Boohoo…throw ’em a Kleenex….it used to American money before we fed them all our wages…LOL

  172. 1672

    Make Christmas Great Again, Drink Some Yuban, Chill Out With a Good Clancy War History Book From the Naval Press, or Watch the Christmas “Bad Boy” Bowl and Read the Brief:

    “…Drivers who get high-tech help from their cars are more likely to text or otherwise drive distracted, a new study has found. Researchers studied how people misbehave when they rely on systems that prevent a car from drifting into another lane, or automatically regulate its speed to keep pace with traffic. Know what you can and can’t do under Washington’s distracted-driving law….”

    SWE’s take: They’re making new cars [most all of ’em Folks] junky, small and expensive lately, makes that 6 cylinder $27K base model [after like $11K in dealer discounts] truck [low end 5 seater Chevy I believe] seem cheap indeed. They’re unreliable with way too much cheap electronics added to base price …add electronics and turbo charging instead with commercial shop add-ons for like 1/4th the price and the same stuff basically…a lion’s share of the newer automobile engines run HOT on that 5-20 thin oil for better MPGs the mechanics tell me, that’s why the radiator inlets are so big now, there’s no room for a front bumper…check the new models out yourself. The Asian transmissions [i.e., Toyota, etc] are junk too when they move like proverbial snails, held back acceleration with transmission computer [thank God they’re gutless], or it would be FAR worse transmission wear IMO. The Ford sedan 6-speed FWD that leaks transmission oil onto the clutch plate on new cars [for the last decade folks] with no warranty…LOL…even the Ford engineers [what few experienced ones left since 2007] apologized for the Ford sedan transmission nightmare, at a theater near you too….I’m with billionaire Buffet, buy a beautiful 2006 Cadillac instead, before they “Vega” sized it, get one with low miles.

    “…Kids without complete vaccine records won’t be allowed in Seattle schools starting next month. At this point, those students number more than 2,000. The district is offering free immunization clinics…”

    SWE’s Take: Does that mean they have to have somewhat useless Flu shots too, but bringing homeless kids into the classroom with lice is acceptable? LOL

    “…Lime is taking its green rental bikes off Seattle streets until at least spring while it negotiates with the city about scooter and bicycle permits. Scooters are cheaper to maintain and have already arrived in several local cities; Seattle is mapping out what riders will be allowed to do…”

    SWE’s Take: Just what Seattle Businesses Need, a few scarce “Waldos” clogging up the streets with bikes and scooters…

    “…Blockbuster real-estate deal: A New York equity firm has bought Seattle’s F5 Tower and Bellevue’s Summit offices for $1.2 billion, the priciest Puget Sound-area transaction this year…”

    SWE’s take: More $15/hr warehouse workers heading for homeless tent city. The Uber Rich thrive while the workers get scraps.

    Good News: Santa’s sleigh doesn’t need a charging station over night…LOL

    “…A 19-year-old Bothell woman watched horror movies to prepare herself before sneaking into her ex-boyfriend’s house and stabbing him 11 times with a steak knife on Dec. 14, prosecutors say. He suffered life-threatening injuries….”

    SWE’s take: Scream the Movie is real in the “daily horrifying” crime” Detroit inner city crime cess pool called Seattle.

  173. 1673
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1637

    History doesn’t repeat, it rhymes.

    Show me more articles like this, and I might be inclined to think that we could see 2016 conditions again.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-becomes-no-1-us-market-for-chinese-homebuyers/

    “ Seattle saw more inquiries from mainland-Chinese homebuyers than any other American city in four of the last seven months, according to Juwai.com, China’s biggest real-estate site for buyers looking in North America”

    “ Some real-estate brokers and buyers are worried the region will follow in Vancouver’s footsteps. There, local officials who pushed for the foreign-buyer tax say international buyers helped price out longtime residents and often left investment homes empty, reducing the overall housing stock and helping prices soar more than 30 percent in a year.”

    “ The area of West Bellevue, Medina and Mercer Island has seen home prices skyrocket 125 percent in the last five years — twice as fast as the rest of King County. That area now has a median home cost of $1.3 million, more than double the price for the rest of the region, according to sales data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

    “It’s definitely helped in driving prices up,” Riley said. In some parts of the Eastside, in particular, she said “we’ve had a large influx of international buyers coming in. They’re the buyer about 50  percent of the time now.””

  174. 1674
    Erik says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1641:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1637
    Show me more articles like this, and I might be inclined to think that we could see 2016 conditions again.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-becomes-no-1-us-market-for-chinese-homebuyers/

    That article is from2016. Why would it make you think “we could see 2016 conditions again?”

    I don’t see the correlation. Are you saying that because inventory is at similar levels? The article is about Chinese buying in Seattle.

  175. 1675
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1642
    Hi Erik,

    What I’m saying is that the home price increases around 2016 happened for reasons that were much more significant than just inventory levels.

    The point of referencing that article is to show how, at the same time that over $1.2 trillion was leaving China (2015-16), Chinese homebuyers were pushing up home prices here.

    Barring a similar set of circumstances, or some other major unforeseen catalyst, it is hard to see why we would have the same kind of home price increases as we did back then.

    I hope you have a merry Christmas, or whatever holiday you choose to celebrate!

    Best regards,

    JSB

  176. 1676
    Deerhawke says:

    Chinese buyers have always been a marginal element in the Seattle SFR market. They were a big deal in the East Side SFR market and a real presence in the Seattle High-end condo market. In my experience, they always wanted to feel that they got an amazing deal, so if we saw them at all, they ended up as the irrelevant bottom feeder.

    I spoke with my title/escrow guy today and he said this is the busiest December they have ever had. His closers are all working long shifts from the 26th through New Year’s Eve.

  177. 1677
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1643
    I’m over in Cleveland Ohio with my wife’s parents and our son. It’s warmer here than Seattle.

    Money from Asia is coming again, I’m just not sure when.

    Have a merry Christmas!

  178. 1678

    Have a Holly Jolly Christmas Bubbleheads and let the Poor and Needy Homeless Native American Indians Sing it to YOU

    https://www.stlabre.org/merrychristmas/?utm_source=EAR-ALL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=19CCW

    Now, grab that Yuban Mug, Fill it to the top and guzzle it Down…its time for the Brief:

    “…Internal Boeing documents appear to portray a “very disturbing picture” of safety concerns raised by some employees, as well as efforts by others to evade regulators, a spokeswoman for the U.S. House committee investigating the 737 MAX crashes said yesterday. Boeing disclosed the documents to the committee this week….”

    SWE’s take: Read Michael Crichton’s 1984 “Airframe” Book, its eerily the same news story as the Boeing Safety Engineering omissions today. Asian outsourcing to blame then too.

    “…Mary has been swiped from the Nativity scene at Washington state’s Capitol grounds. In past years, the baby Jesus disappeared with some regularity, but the vanishing of the 3-foot-tall Mary is a first. Police say charges could be filed if her kidnapper is found…”

    SWE’s Take: The Snow Flakes can be blamed for this IMO….too much politically correct and not enough Christmas Love IMO. Add this story to the daily news on violence and crime in Seattle, the equivalent of inner city Detroit…

    “…”I tell them every day, ‘You guys are amazing.'” Erum Irfan, center, is the heart and encouraging soul of Watson Manor in Kent, which provides very low-income young mothers with housing and healing. For almost 18 years, she’s lived, worked and raised her own family in the building operated by Kent Youth and Family Services, one of the nonprofits that benefit from donations to The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy. She’s pictured with daughter Raihab Baig and husband Irfan Baig. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: Great program and a great pilot to try to fix the HUGE homelessness problems in Seattle. We need many hundreds of these emergency centers, one is a joke to fix it. Ignoring homelessness or demonizing it is not the solution. Packing large families in the families’ homes is inadequate, but imagine you have no family in Seattle that can house you? I imagine landlords don’t like “sublet” crowds of like $15/hr per capita workers packed in and destroying their expensive rentals either…

    “…Three hotly anticipated movies open today at Seattle-area theaters, including an almost-miraculous adaptation of the beloved novel “Little Women.” Read the movie reviews. (By the way, did you know author Louisa May Alcott detested her own book?) …”

    SWE’s Take: I collect books and monitor “best seller” authors, the recent new authors simply don’t exist anymore, like 40-50+ years ago. Even MAD magazine lost all their good cartoon artists and has quit publishing new stuff, they regurgitate old cartoons done 40-50+ years ago. Same with International Hollywood, most of the new movies are subpar copies of regurgitated screen plays from 40-50 years ago, using actors that lack skills and experience…the Space Program in America has the same conundrum, as we watch new Boeing/SpaceEx projects “continuously” explode into flame balls or crash into the sea..its not just the MAX 8 IMO.

    Good News: There’s plenty of good “classics” to enjoy, try “White Christmas” or even “Santa Clause”, these you never get tired of…..Merry Christmas!!!

  179. 1679

    RE: Erik @ 1645
    Yes Erik

    I just got off the phone with my daughter in Kansas City, its 65 degrees and sunny there today. It makes our icy 33 degree Seattle mornings look horrifying in comparison…

  180. 1680

    The MAX 8 Christmas News Dumped on Seattle like a Foot of New Snow…

    https://news.yahoo.com/boeing-document-dump-shows-disturbing-picture-737-max-205910958.html

    Read the comments, even they allege the new Boeing CEO is “just another bean counter” that got us in trouble in the first place…change from bad habits is like quitting smoking, you get addicted to the harsh health establishment. I see 2 more new CEOs in Boeing’s near future.

  181. 1681
    OA says:

    Merry Christmas bubble mongers!

  182. 1682
    S-Crow says:

    Sellers: Excise Tax change starts on January 1, 2020:

    State Real Estate Excise Tax graduated sales price tables start Jan 1st, 2020 (the following does not include most Local Excise charges at .0050% of the sales price).

    $500,000 or less : 1.10%
    $500,000.01 to $1,500.000 : 1.28% (next million)
    $1,500,000.01 – $3,000,000: 2.75% (next 1.5 Million)
    $3,000,000.01 and up: 3% (next amount)

    For Jan 1st 2020 or later closings: If the sales price is $600,000 the 1st $500K is charged at 1.1% and the remaining $100,000 is charged at 1.28% (local excise charges is not included). In this scenario the State Excise is charged is $6,780. Most local Excise tax is charged at .0050 of the sales price so adding State and Local Excise together is $9,780.00 to close Jan 1st 2020 or later.

    In 2019, in the same sales price scenario, the combined local and state Excise charges would be 1.78% of the sales price or $10,680.00. For people in this scenario that closed in late December or within the next few business days, closing Jan 1st or later would save you $900. If your agent pushed to close sooner in the last two weeks of December, I would have asked “why the rush?”

  183. 1683
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1647
    It’s 60 today. It could be global warming, and we are taking advantage of it and going to visit Cuyahoga National park today.

  184. 1684
    Eastsider says:

    From Calculated Risk –

    Since I don’t expect any change in fiscal policy during an election year, and monetary policy appears to be on hold – and I don’t expect either a strong pickup in the economy (and higher rates) or an economic slump – it seems likely inventory will remain at about the same level through 2020.

    Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2020
    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/12/question-10-for-2020-will-housing.html

  185. 1685

    RE: Erik @ 1651
    The Ice Age Cool Air is Converging On Kansas City Today…Snow today predicted and 30 degrees….

  186. 1686
    David says:

    76 degrees here in Florida. Partly cloudy with 100% chance of wading birds. Lost an ice cube on the ground.

  187. 1687

    Hey My Christmas Was “Great Again” Just like my “Make Christmas Great Again Sweatshirt”. I hope all the Bubbleheads had great Christmases too! Gulp your Yuban and read the Brief….did you know coffee increases your morning metabolism, like in 30 min flat? So its good for your health to gulp it all down like medicine replacement…LOL:

    “…Redmond Town Center may get new owners and a new strategy for surviving in today’s massively disrupted retail landscape. A deal is expected to close as soon as Monday. The buyers are sketching out the possibilities for Redmond’s shopping center as other local malls learn what works these days — and what doesn’t…”

    SWE’s Take: Online AMZ PIRATES are pillaging the “brick and mortar” stores.

    “…Ten people, including children, were hurt in a Christmas Day crash that blocked Highway 302 on the Purdy Sand Spit for two hours yesterday. ..”

    SWE’s Take: Seattle Squeeze traffic causes terrifying traffic accidents injuries too. Add this to the daily Seattle area violence causes.

    “…If you’re hitting the stores for post-Christmas deals, don’t buy electronics quite yet. That’s among retail experts’ tips for getting the best bang for your buck. Meanwhile, many businesses are getting stricter about returns and even banning some customers for life…”

    SWE’s take: Does that mean the store warranties are toilet paper too?

    “…This year’s 10 priciest U.S. home sales total $1.1 billion, and they include new digs for Amazon’s Jeff Bezos. One mansion took a $156 million price cut before selling. Here’s the list…”

    SWE’s take: Seeeeeee…$700K Seattle homes are cheap and affordable…not…

    “…10 … 9 … 8 … What are you doing for New Year’s Eve? Here are some spots to celebrate, including a few unconventional options. If you’d rather not get tangled in downtown traffic, check out one of these 10 neighborhood joints…”

    SWE’s Take: New Years Eve Tickets [they’re all sold out by now?] on the Space Needle run like $300/person with free champagne?…LOL…they regularly had a live band BYOB and free dinner singles party at the Tacoma Grange for $15/person….and you get more socialization there too. I went to that venue for years. now….LOL

    “…Taking college classes in high school can be great, if you can afford it. But the costs are keeping many low-income kids out. The state’s schools chief is pushing a plan to make dual-credit coursework free for every student….”

    SWE’s Take: If you can’t afford college replacement high school math and science….how do you learn math and science at our decrepit Seattle area public schools? The tooth fairy? I got my daughter her diploma online and sent her to college for high school math and science. I had no time to mentor her personally…..who does? She got a “B” in Calculus there BTW [100% based on exams, not high school cheater homework]…LOL…

    “…Top ideas for those of you who need to get out of the house today: Breathe some fresh air on one of these refreshing winter hikes. Enjoy a holiday light festival. Or celebrate Boxing Day (no, it doesn’t involve gloves and a ring; here’s what it is)…”

    SWE’s Take: Put up lots of Christmas lights on your roof and shrubs, and you’ll have plenty of outdoor 32 degree freezing rain and winds to breath fresh air…if you don’t come down with pneumonia doing it….then taking it all down with many hours of ladders and staple removers, with storage untangling/boxing work next week…LOL… P.S., don’t destroy the flimsy light strings yanking out roof staples.

    “…The decade brought unforgettable moments in local theater. But we’re ending the 2010s without some special landmarks, we’ve lost nine great restaurants, and even our weather has gone sideways. What do you miss about Seattle from the past decade? Tell us here…”

    SWE’s take: The Christmas movies sucked this year, when Star Wars became the main attraction, what happened to real Christmas movies International Hollywood? Too politically incorrect now? The restaurants sport lots of empty tables with “no reservations” needed now too, try to find a decent restaurant that sells reasonably priced steaks lately…LOL…its all cheap noodles, rice and beans now?

    “…For too many years, too many vulnerable children in state care have slept in hotel rooms and offices, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. ..”

    SWE’s Take: I see homeless sleeping in the Kent City Hall lobbies where its warm lately.

    Good News: Traffic settled down yesterday, at least the local roads did…hardly any cars in Kent area yesterday. A great sunny day to meet new friends in Seattle, I may likely have too, most Millenials love my honesty BTW…LOL

  188. 1688
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1644:

    Chinese buyers have always been a marginal element in the Seattle SFR market. They were a big deal in the East Side SFR market and a real presence in the Seattle High-end condo market. In my experience, they always wanted to feel that they got an amazing deal, so if we saw them at all, they ended up as the irrelevant bottom feeder.

    I’m sorry, there’s so much silliness here that I am really struggling to think that you actually believe it.

    I will rebut your anecdote with a better anecdote, I will rebut your claim with fact, and then I will rebut your claim with the logic.

    Claim: Chinese homebuyers weren’t interested in Seattle.

    Easy anecdote: Whaaaat???? have you ever been to University Village??

    Fact: The article specifically called out that Seattle was the number one US city for homebuyers from mainland China. Not Redmond. Not Bellevue. Not Kirkland. Seattle. Sure, they were having a major impact on the other side of the lake, but Seattle was definitely in the mix.

    Logic: you mean to tell me that they would be purchasing homes all the way from China, and the idea that Seattle was 3 miles away from Bellevue would somehow be a dealbreaker? Or that if they outbid somebody on the east side, the person who had just been outbid wouldn’t compete with homebuyers in Seattle? People are commuting hours each way, and you somehow think that Seattle is in a vacuum?

    Your comment about the bottom feeder homebuyers is laughable, too. Typically many of the Chinese homebuyers were buying homes priced at more than $1 million. More recently they were also going more for the middle class homes and using financing instead of all cash.

    Your statement was just ridiculous, and your anecdotes are misleading at best.

    I’m not sure if you’re purposely trying to be misleading or if it’s just selection bias because of the handful of houses the relatively small sample size that you work with.

    It sure is a stretch to think that you actually believe what you are saying with statements like the one above.

  189. 1689

    RE: Blurtman @ 1544
    Ukraine Ties With the Phony Steele FISA Dossier Apparently Came Out Of Ukraine From the IG Report

    Prosecutor Durham is on this Steele/Ukraine “centered”spy activity, not Mueller. Quid Pro Quo Joe Biden teamed with these Ukraine thugs and the Congress/Media all but called Biden Mother Teresa anyway…you figure. Blame it all on Trump? LOL…he gets blamed for all the DNC corruption anyway, like the 33,000 emails from Hillary’s illegal server…

    Its like if I ran a red light and I alleged Erik was to blame, after all I have evidence he saw it happen…LOL..and it was horrifying that Erik watched and reported the true facts to the police. He must go to prison now, he’s a Fascist.

  190. 1690

    Time to Stop Raising Campaign Funds For Trump Talking Impeachment, Instead, Fill the Mug With Yuban and Read the Brief for Friday:

    “… As affordable housing shrinks in Seattle, it’s taking longer than ever to build
    A crane hoists a modular unit into a new apartment building in Seattle’s Othello neighborhood. Units were prefabricated and stacked like Legos in a five-story project built for speed, but delays at city agencies set it back almost a year. Apartment projects are hanging in limbo across Seattle, while developers and the city point fingers at each other for not helping ease the affordability crunch fast enough. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: I bet the listed new homes that fetch like $700K get built in a few weeks. I can appreciate there’s no land or parking left to pack more”cheaper” apartments into Seattle, but there’s always room for “luxury priced” Condos. I bet the apartments would be built much faster if they fetched $700K too…LOL

    “…Aspergillus mold infections of any kind are highly uncommon, yet in several hundred cases statewide, patients have been diagnosed with the infection after checking in at Seattle Children’s and other hospitals. Hospitals say they’re not the source, but some victims’ families still have questions. Read the Times Watchdog story….”

    SWE’s take: Turn the heat on inside and keep it on 24 hours to eliminate and prevent mold smell on cold damp winters. Energy bills are more money, but mold disease is far worse.

    “… A Bellingham elementary-school principal was fatally shot along with her two pets. Lynn Heimsoth’s husband was also found at their home yesterday, alive but with a gunshot wound to the head, authorities say…”

    SWE’s take: Friday’s “inner city Detroit”almost daily crime center news, from Seattle.

    “…How can you offer help to someone living outside in winter? Start by following your instincts, a longtime outreach worker says, and then save these phone numbers to hand out…”

    SWE’s take: A polite way suggesting you do nothing, its hopeless.

    “…Alyssa McLemore called 911 and then vanished. Ten years later, the Kent woman’s family hasn’t stopped searching for her. Now, with the support of a grassroots movement and renewed efforts of the State Patrol, they hope to find answers. Their story is the latest in our docuseries, Not Invisible, on the crisis of violence against Native women…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds like a hopeless cold case for the police. What was Alyssa’s age?

    “… Snickering about the new U.S. “Space Force” aside, the federal government’s increased spending on space activities should renew Washington efforts to be sure the state plays a substantial role, writes The Seattle Times editorial board…”

    SWE’s take: The Space Force is a great idea and puts qualified leadership in charge of space projects, it saves money, why is that bad?

    Good News: If the “recent” declassified papers from NASA/DOD state it correct, not only is Area 51 real, but the reports of US built reversed engineering of high technology not only built the saucer technology during Reagan’s years, but these triangular “three lighted crafts” sightings are real reversed engineering and are used right now, but secretly.

  191. 1691

    Forget the Fairy Tale That Chinese Money Supports Seattle RE

    Inheritance from “dead” parents does though and the Secure Act may destroy this money pile too:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inheriting-a-parents-ira-or-401k-heres-how-the-secure-act-could-create-a-disaster-2019-12-26?mod=MW_story_top_stories

    At a theater near you.

  192. 1692
    N says:

    Permit Question – how reliable is the Seattle Dept of Construction online permit history lookup tool. Is it probable there could be permits that are not in the database?

    For the property in question, the sellers realtor has stated major renovations were done a few years back but no permits show online. Further, they state they will share with an agreed upon offer.

  193. 1693

    RE: N @ 1660

    I think they are pretty reliable. You need to look at the Seller Disclosure Form. Often they say the renovations they made did not require a permit. If the square footage has been expanded that is much more problematic than if they just updated the aesthetics like flooring. Often if you are just replacing something you don’t need a permit. Not every thing requires a permit. But often it’s a mix and they did do some things that should have had a permit but didn’t get one.

    One exception. Often I see a sign off on a new Electrical Box without that showing in the Permit Section of the County site. It is ON the actual new box. Same with some electrical upgrades. So some things were signed off by the City but not part of the “permits” section of the City or County online permits. Sometimes they show on the City site but not the County site. This in many cities and not just Seattle, So there likely is a minimum amount of work before it shows on the County website. There must be many smaller permit issues that don’t show there.

    But for a massive remodel? It should be there. I expect they will explain why it isn’t after you submit an offer and hope you are OK with their explanation. DO check with the local jurisdiction before accepting whatever that answer may be.

    That said, many, many, many houses sell with work done and no permits every day and everywhere. In fact it’s only been in the last decade or so out of the three that I have been working in real estate where people even mention permits. When they weren’t online it was very common for people to not ask.

    There was a brief time when Bank of America was being a stickler about work without permits, but by and large even the lender doesn’t ask or care. Even B of A changed that policy because it is impractical to prohibit houses without permits from selling.

  194. 1694
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 1660
    My advice is to go to the Seattle municipal Tower and talk to them. They do 20 minute question and answer sessions. You may not get anywhere, but that’s what I’d do.

  195. 1695

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1643
    Yes Just stopped by

    I heard it on the FBN business news channel [there is only one business channel BTW on cable] that the economy stock market under Obama had great Trump growth delta increases too historically the last decade or so. The problem with comparing Obama’s stock market delta as it peaked to 18,000 DOW and Trump’s current 29500 DOW historically is absurd in this case. Trump did it with MASS unemployment [mostly energy workers rehired, etc] decreases from battle ground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, etc energy producing jobs; Biden is just like Hillary, he wants to eliminated the millions of “current” energy jobs and raise unemployment [with lower wages] to promote an ambiguous climate change agenda “dead economy apparently with no clear end” in sight, Biden said this clearly too a few days ago. Obama used debt or Quantitative Easing (QE) welfare to the banksters to boost his stock market too, Trump did not. Trump’s economy shows 3+% wage growth and much bigger GDP growth too. Apples and Oranges; historically. And, America is now energy independent, ask our enemy Iran why we stopped their Obama foreign ‘nuclear development” aid. LOL

    All this Trump economic growth has to be great for Seattle RE price growth too, it certainly doesn’t inhibit it.

    Read the contracts carefully and don’t assume the fake news MSM spin is credible.

  196. 1696
    softwarengineer says:

    Tip Your Yuban Mugs, the Saturday Brief Repeated the Friday Brief, But the Boeing News Could Use a 2nd Look Anyway:

    “…Internal Boeing documents appear to portray a “very disturbing picture” of safety concerns raised by some employees, as well as efforts by others to evade regulators, a spokeswoman for the U.S. House committee investigating the 737 MAX crashes said. Boeing’s disclosure of the documents capped a week that began with the ouster and replacement of CEO Dennis Muilenburg. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Once your brand name is labeled “JUNK” with no American Safety Engineering incorporation, game over.

    Good news: At least the proverbial “aerospace” horse manure hit the fan, after I escaped the mess and retired on a more dependable “non-Boeing” pension…LOL…I feel like the ‘proverbial” greased pig, laughing and running as the the foreign overlord outsourcing can’t grab me now….

    P.S. I talked to a fine Milenial Single Lady last Christmas and she knew my daughter [everyone knew my daughter, LOL], she wanted to meet me and demanded my phone number; she is like 70% of the Milenials, just wants to be a housewife with a working hubby. I told her she’d likely have to move out of Seattle to achieve that elusive dream. She agreed with me totally, but seeks my advice for an alternate plan.

  197. 1697
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: N @ 1660

    My own view is that the SDCI permit system is a mess. There was a switch over from a previous system (that was quite reliable) last year. Since that time, it is sometimes right and sometimes wrong and there is a lot missing. It is also not at all intuitive, so you might find information in a place you would not expect to find it.

    But as Ardell pointed out, a lot of remodels, even fairly substantial ones, are done without a permit. This was much more common in previous decades, but it still happens. If you are adding square footage onto the existing footprint, it would be fairly foolish to do it without pulling a permit. But if you stay inside your existing footprint and have a good relationship with your neighbors, why bother with the cost and hassle?

    A few years ago, I gutted a house on one floor and completely rehabbed the other two. We turned a 3 bedroom 2 bath into a 5 bedroom 3 bath house, adding 800 sf of living space in the basement. We replaced all the horrid 1959 single-pane aluminum windows and restored the original 1920s styling of the house. About 80% of the electric and plumbing was updated.

    The neighbors didn’t care as long as I promised to paint the house on the outside. They had done their own off-permit work turning their garage into an artist’s studio so they had another reason not to bring in the authorities.

    I would not automatically reject a house because off-permit work was done. You have houses with the original knob &tube on a fuse box that do not raise an eyebrow. But if someone put in a new breaker panel and romex that makes people suspicious?

    You want to have someone look into the quality of the work. Just get a good inspector who has actually built things and knows what he/she is looking at.

  198. 1698
    Juststoppedby says:

    Deerhawke, you’re back… I was wondering about your thoughts on this one.

    Curious if you can actually justify the silliness in your earlier comments.
    By Juststoppedby @ 1656:

    By Deerhawke @ 1644:

    Chinese buyers have always been a marginal element in the Seattle SFR market. They were a big deal in the East Side SFR market and a real presence in the Seattle High-end condo market. In my experience, they always wanted to feel that they got an amazing deal, so if we saw them at all, they ended up as the irrelevant bottom feeder.

    I’m sorry, there’s so much silliness here that I am really struggling to think that you actually believe it.

    I will rebut your anecdote with a better anecdote, I will rebut your claim with fact, and then I will rebut your claim with the logic.

    Claim: Chinese homebuyers weren’t interested in Seattle.

    Easy anecdote: Whaaaat???? have you ever been to University Village??

    Fact: The article specifically called out that Seattle was the number one US city for homebuyers from mainland China. Not Redmond. Not Bellevue. Not Kirkland. Seattle. Sure, they were having a major impact on the other side of the lake, but Seattle was definitely in the mix.

    Logic: you mean to tell me that they would be purchasing homes all the way from China, and the idea that Seattle was 3 miles away from Bellevue would somehow be a dealbreaker? Or that if they outbid somebody on the east side, the person who had just been outbid wouldn’t compete with homebuyers in Seattle? People are commuting hours each way, and you somehow think that Seattle is in a vacuum?

    Your comment about the bottom feeder homebuyers is laughable, too. Typically many of the Chinese homebuyers were buying homes priced at more than $1 million. More recently they were also going more for the middle class homes and using financing instead of all cash.

    Your statement was just ridiculous, and your anecdotes are misleading at best.

    I’m not sure if you’re purposely trying to be misleading or if it’s just selection bias because of the handful of houses the relatively small sample size that you work with.

    It sure is a stretch to think that you actually believe what you are saying with statements like the one above.

  199. 1699
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1665
    I may or may not have done many extensive remodels without any permits… Permits are a waste of money unless you want to increase bedrooms or like you said, square footage.

    I just got a permit though for my current Rainier remodel because I am adding an egress window to turn a 3br into a 4br. An investor friend told me that in order to list a rental as 4br it needs to actually be a legitimate 4br these days in the city of Seattle. I didn’t get all the details why because this person is someone I have a lot of respect for when it comes to investing. If you know why, please share.

  200. 1700
    northender says:

    RE: Erik @ 1667
    The egress window is usually required by the RRIO regulations but not always – there are exceptions for old bedrooms with old windows. A permit is not required to add bedrooms that will be rented; they just need to be “safe.” I have created two bedrooms from spaces that were previously used differently, didn’t get permits but I did add egress windows. Both have passed RRIO inspection.

  201. 1701
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: northender @ 1668

    Why would you talk about a person who is buying with financing…pointing out their ethnic origin? Talk about silliness. If they are buying using a local mortgage, why does the Country they may or may not be from matter? If they work here and get a mortgage here they are just another buyer the same as you or anyone else.

  202. 1702
    OA says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1666

    Justme? This you?

  203. 1703
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 1668
    So, are you saying the only reason to get a permit is so you don’t get caught in the act and get fined?

  204. 1704
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1669:

    RE: northender @ 1668

    Why would you talk about a person who is buying with financing…pointing out their ethnic origin? Talk about silliness. If they are buying using a local mortgage, why does the Country they may or may not be from matter? If they work here and get a mortgage here they are just another buyer the same as you or anyone else.

    A) I’m thinking that question was targeted towards me?

    B) Wow, talk about misreading my point about financing… no offense, but you weren’t even close.

    My point was simply that many of the homebuyers from China had been able to do all cash, high dollar purchases and, over time, there had been more of the middle income type buyers who required financing like the rest of us.

    This was in response to the idea that the homebuyers Deerhawke was seeing were usually bottom feeders.

    And seeing as how a huge percentage of homebuyers in the US use financing, I’m totally baffled by the conclusion that I would’ve been saying it has something to do with their ethnicity.

    Sheesh… Maybe you were trying to defend Deerhawke but saw the huge flaws in his statements so you wanted to try to turn this into a race issue? Attack the messenger?

  205. 1705
    nothender says:

    RE: Erik @ 1671
    I don’t know that there are fines for working without a permit – if there are I don’t think they are substantial. You could get a stop work order until you get the permit. Permits for most interior, non-structural work are over the counter though. Permits mean money to the city and the inspections can cause delays and rework.

  206. 1706
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1672

    I think you misunderstood what he meant by “bottomfeeder” in the context he used. It doesn’t mean not a high end house. It means a ridiculously low offer that is going to be ignored.

    The paragraph even as you restated it is talking about Chinese buyers, so yes, I thought you were talking about Chinese buyers.

  207. 1707
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1673:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1672

    I think you misunderstood what he meant by “bottomfeeder” in the context he used. It doesn’t mean not a high end house. It means a ridiculously low offer that is going to be ignored.

    The paragraph even as you restated it is talking about Chinese buyers, so yes, I thought you were talking about Chinese buyers.

    No, I understood him. He was trying to project what he claimed to be his experience with Chinese homebuyers onto the market as a whole.

    His point was essentially that, due to the bottom feeding nature of the Chinese homebuyers he claims to have been in countering, we should ignore all the other evidence that they have actually been a major factor in the market. Sounds kind of silly, huh?

    And I was definitely talking about Chinese homebuyers. If $1.2 trillion (2015-16) had come from any other country and had significant downstream impacts for the Seattle real estate market, I would’ve been talking about them. But it wasn’t any other country, it was China.

    That’s not an issue of ethnicity, it’s an issue of geography and economics, and racism has nothing to do with it.

  208. 1708

    RE: Erik @ 1671
    They Waited About Six Months Before the Kansas County Code Police Jumped SWE on His Foreclosure

    That’s when I found out why the old owner foreclosed….the back yard needed dead trees removed and the exterior wood roof trim [no gutters required on my 50s design] needed to ripped out and replaced…about $5-10K in upgrades…I got bids and finished the code work before the deadline. So IMO no one gets away with avoiding Code work, sooner or later they find out.

    I also added a new central air and furnace with thermostat installed with permits and warranty for $4500, my daughter’s significant other knew heater contractors that gave them the Spring overstock deal….my home went up about $10-15K after the utilities were replaced with new assemblies. My price decreases were directly related to lack of remodeling $CASH$ in Kansas.

    The house has doubled in value since it now has a stable listing. Win/win.

  209. 1709
    northender says:

    RE: Erik @ 1671
    I don’t know if there are fines for working without city permits. If there are, I don’t think they are substantial. You could get a stop work order until the proper permits are obtained. Most interior permits are over the counter though so the delay wouldn’t be terrible. Permits mean money to the city and inspections.

  210. 1710
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1674

    It does if you single out those using financing or whose funds are documented to be being sent from a local bank or credit union.

  211. 1711
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1674

    I also agree with him that Chinese buyers using money from China who don’t live here screwed up the market. In the last bubble they blamed the people moving here from Califormia. I’ll never understand that blame game.

  212. 1712
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1678:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1674

    I also agree with him that Chinese buyers using money from China who don’t live here screwed up the market. In the last bubble they blamed the people moving here from Califormia. I’ll never understand that blame game.

    You think that trying to understand which factors drove the market higher, and which of those factors are or are not present in the current market is a “blame game”?

    Interesting…

  213. 1713
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1679

    To know it you have to be anecdotal as there are no records kept in that manner. My experience is the same as Deerhawke’s. I have checked many times as well. It has never been the cause more so than local high wage hirings. But you call that silliness. Because you want to blame them.

    Of course we look at what is moving the market. But when it doesn’t match the who you want to blame, you call it silliness.

  214. 1714
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1675
    Good job increasing your equity. Pull up that equity out and reinvest.

  215. 1715
    N says:

    @Ardell 1661 @Deerhawke 1665 – Very good info, Thank you both!!

  216. 1716

    RE: northender @ 1676
    Ask Riches Stove About My 1999 Home Purchase

    The stove was not State inspected and my sales contract [years later BTW] was “null and void”, it was a $1000 fine against Riches Stoves too…they find out sooner or later. In my case, the realtor that lost my listing reported me to the state….be careful out there.

  217. 1717

    Tip Your Yuban Mug, the Monday Brief is One Story IMO today:

    “…Survivors fought back when an intruder rampaged through a New York rabbi’s home with a machete, injuring five Hasidic Jews at a Hanukkah celebration Saturday. One man gave police a crucial clue that led to the suspect’s arrest. This comes after sharp increases in hate crimes nationally and in Washington state, where one local Jewish leader this fall described a new “level of edginess or fear.”…”

    SWE’s Take: The Dems and Reps agree on this concern and have teamed up to fight for Jewish religious freedom….thank God!

    Lions 0
    Christians 1

  218. 1718

    RE: Erik @ 1681
    Milenials Seek My Advice Now Erik

    I don’t really need more $CASH$, I have plenty. But you’re right to invest the overload, as there’s no real risk to your financial future “good or bad”. The Kansas repo I grabbed up went up 100% in value the last 4 years, a real boom for my family. Cara, a new friend of Lori [my daughter], knew Lori and knows she got an “impossible Seattle dream for Milenial women”, a stay at home housewife [hey, that’s a full-time $50K/yr job anyway]; with a working hubby. I figure we all have “elusive” dreams and make them ALL come true.

    I have to visit the critical care hospital today, please pray for my family or good thoughts will do fine too;-)

    My 68 YO sister, who worked public school teaching in 3rd grade is in critical care with a fast heart beat that can’t be cured with pace makers or drugs…the working women have a new problem now-a-days that men don’t have to excessive degree in comparison, cardio-vascular critical illnesses. Ask the American Heart Association if your don’t believe me. My Latina friend [I almost married] had a brain clot requiring “life saving” brain operation…she was working two jobs in Seattle to pay the high rent about 10 years ago when it happenned, she was a 45 YO. Remember too, if you have a sick spouse that gets critically sick, most of them die in a few years too…stress in my book. They pass on in twos.

    Soooo…I’m hopeful anyway, I’m loading my shiny red Dodge Charger with God’s angels and we’re on a mission for God to St Peters Hospital…we’re gonna bring her healing and hope . A miracle perhaps? LOL

  219. 1719

    Odd News To Build Your Faith in a Creator Out There

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/weird-news/huge-triangular-ufo-captured-gliding-21179400

    Its ironic that the alleged Reagan era “reversed engineered” Space Force” “advanced” vehicle was also reported triangular with three lights too…coincidence or real? Trump’s Space Force budget includes UFO research [reverse engineering] and yes, its possible any 2nd coming of Christ could be from heaven [Orion star cluster?] in a UFO. There’s much about the Earth we just don’t clearly understand….but archeology and DNA research proves one thing that stands out, there was a 7% shift in our DNA about 5-10K years ago, its measurable and made us intelligent humans and definitely proves it isn’t just spontaneous Darwin evolution. That would be impossible in my book.

    Keep the faith.

  220. 1720

    We Work Is not Working Well in Seattle

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90448185/wework-laid-off-2400-employees-but-its-execs-just-got-a-potential-extra-18-million

    Sounds like the bogus office space rent in Seattle ate up all the company tenant profits…but the CEOs left laughing with a big bag of loot to boot…

  221. 1721
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1680:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1679

    To know it you have to be anecdotal as there are no records kept in that manner.

    Ah, so we are now living in a world where we can’t rely on facts, but must rely on anecdotes?

    Maybe that concept gives you more latitude for your own version of “alternative facts”, but it’s just not true.

    Here are just a few, verifiable, facts which have much more weight than your claims/anecdotes do:

    By the end of 2016, Seattle had been the number one city of interest for Chinese homebuyers for four out of seven months.

    Increased interest from China further juiced the Seattle market when Vancouver BC imposed a tax on foreign homebuyers because they had seen their own real estate market shoot through the roof, pricing out many Canadian citizens.

    Over $1.2 trillion in capital left China in 2015-16, leading to the creation of capital controls from their government. Not long afterward, the Seattle real estate market began to soften, and there was a dramatic reduction in bidding wars.

    These are actual facts, and they withstand scrutiny a lot better than your sales schtick.

    Having a logical discussion isn’t silliness, but Deerhawke’s post was chock full of it.

  222. 1722
    Beano says:

    This site is in need of a new post, new material, to break the chatter out of a rut.

  223. 1723
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1688

    What you just said is not true, so let’s stop there. I have the facts. I can see every sale for every year and who paid cash and who they were.

    Stop blaming Chinese Money for the overall market conditions of Residential Real Estate in King County as a whole. It’s off base. Your “facts” do not support your claim.

  224. 1724
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1690 – I thought there were no stats kept for the ethnicity of homebuyers. That’s why although there was a prevalent thought that wealthy Chinese were contributing to the run up in prices, it wasn’t possible to prove it.

  225. 1725
    Justatoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1690:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1688

    What you just said is not true, so let’s stop there..

    Everything I have said is verifiable by a reputable news source, and I have provided links time and again.

    If you’re going to say I’m not telling the truth, you should provide some information to back it up. Tell me specifically what information is wrong, and provide evidence that can stand toe to toe with the sources I’ve provided.

    Seems like your arguments are getting pretty slippery.

    I’m reminded of a quote by Upton Sinclair…

  226. 1726
    David B. says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 1691:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1690 – I thought there were no stats kept for the ethnicity of homebuyers. That’s why although there was a prevalent thought that wealthy Chinese were contributing to the run up in prices, it wasn’t possible to prove it.

    Racists don’t need facts. Their gut feelings tell them all they need to know.

  227. 1727
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 1691

    Sometimes it can be proven something is not so. I can see what % were cash sales. That’s the start point of possible. I can see if there is a higher or lower rate of cash purchases from one year to another to see a rate of change since the crackdown. Sometimes it’s easy to see if someone is not likely Chinese. Me for example. I’m not likely Chinese. :)

  228. 1728
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1692

    Ah yes, alternative facts.

    What some people engage in when they can’t actually provide the real kind…

    Kellyanne, is that you???

  229. 1729
    OA says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1693

    I’m still having a hard time understanding what you’re trying to point out

  230. 1730
    Justme says:

    So all the 2015-2017 panic-buying, based on the fear of hordes of inbound China buyers, was just a mass psychosis with no foundation in reality? There was no substance and actual transactions behind it? It was all REIC propaganda aimed at driving up prices and causing buyers to bid against each other? Realtors are liars?

    Gosh, I guess that means prices are due to fall even more than I expected. I’ll take that.

  231. 1731

    Grab Your Yuban, Take a Long Year End Swallow…its time for the Brief:

    “…Home prices in the Puget Sound area are higher than last year for the third month in a row, according to new numbers released today. Year-over-year price growth has accelerated since the summer, a big change from the declining growth we saw earlier….”

    SWE’s Take: take a look at Tim’s Chart, scroll up to YOY price deltas…the peak Tim caught in 2019 was like $670K, approx flat avg from 2018….where’s the raw data like Tim’s proving price gains YOY? The Tooth Fairy?

    “… South King County fire crews fought a huge blaze yesterday at the Federal Way home where an 85-year-old woman is accused of shooting her two roommates, one of them fatally, earlier this month…”

    SWE’s take: Sub-letting shooting by crazy 85 YO woman in home was destroyed because of evidence she feared was in it before the trial?

    “…How two sisters from New Mexico ended up running three Seattle restaurants: Yukiko and Miki Sodos are telling the story of a huge leap that led to Seattle’s Bang Bang Café, Bang Bang Kitchen and Café Pettirosso. They have a recipe to share, too, for cornmeal pancakes with green chile butter. Craving different flavors? You’ll find made-to-order seafood cioppino at a restaurant inside the Ballard PCC.

    Wellness: We’re resolving to get more creative about clean eating in 2020, after the glut of rich holiday food. Nutritionist Carrie Dennett recommends three cookbooks for inspiration, including one that focuses on hitting “the sweet spot where delicious and healthy meet.”..”

    SWE’s take: Clean eating is not cornmeal pancakes with green chile butter….how about fruits and vegetables?

    Happy New Year Bubbleheads, hey Ardelle I liked your blog referencing Chinese $CASH% irrelevant in Seattle area, raw data always wins arguments on the Bubble.

  232. 1732
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 1695RE: Juststoppedby @ 1688 – So, if I understand you correctly, the 2015_2016 market was based on massive Chinese money that then receded in 2018. Now at the end of 2019, inventory is in the same place as end of 2015 and 2016, even without the impact of those earlier Chinese sales levels. That would not seem to be good news for you.

  233. 1733
    OA says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1697

    Exactly!!!!! lol

  234. 1734
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1696:

    Happy New Year Bubbleheads, hey Ardelle I liked your blog referencing Chinese $CASH% irrelevant in Seattle area, raw data always wins arguments on the Bubble.

    I saw no raw data (or any data) in her post. All anecdotal.

  235. 1735
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1685
    Sorry to hear about your sister. Hope she gets well soon. Hang in there.

  236. 1736
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1697:

    RE: Justme @ 1695RE: Juststoppedby @ 1688 – So, if I understand you correctly, the 2015_2016 market was based on massive Chinese money that then receded in 2018. Now at the end of 2019, inventory is in the same place as end of 2015 and 2016, even without the impact of those earlier Chinese sales levels. That would not seem to be good news for you.

    I have never claimed that buyers from China were the only reason that prices went up.

    I said they were a major factor and that factor has largely been removed for the foreseeable future.

    It is possible that other catalysts will come into play, but my crystal ball is cloudy in that regard.

    How much money do you think it would take in a single year to have a significant influence and home prices in the greater Seattle area?
    $100 million? $300? $500?

    Keep in mind that overseas money doesn’t have to purchase every house, they just have to be involved enough bidding wars, and purchase enough homes, to juice the market substantially…

  237. 1737
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1666

    Just back from visiting family in the Big Easy. Wonderful food and wonderful fun, but not the city it was before Katrina. It is now an extraordinary example of gentrification. When people talk about how the next big earthquake will reduce prices in Seattle, look at New Orleans post Katrina.

    Juststoppedby sorry not to have answered in depth, but this issue of Chinese buyers has been covered over and over and over again on Seattle Bubble over the years. You should go back a few years and read the threads.

    Briefly, the NWMLS does not collect data on the age, race, gender, national origin etc of buyers or sellers. Somehow we keep getting supposedly authoritative “statistics” and “data” in newspaper and magazine articles, but when you trace it back and try to find a source, there is no there there. Lacking real data, this topic all comes down to anecdotes.

    It is kind of like your comment about University Village. Sure they look like Chinese to you, but how many are actually long—term US nationals or residents? How many are Japanese? Or Koreans? Or Thais? Or Vietnamese? Or Tibetans with an Indian passport? And given that racial/ethnic uncertainty, how many are students living in dorms or apartments or their visiting relatives who are not looking to buy real estate at all?

    But beyond this, I think the premise of your argument is deeply flawed. You are saying, in essence, that fundamental indicators of supply and demand don’t matter. Your argument is that despite rapidly dropping supply and solid demand, prices will not go up because there is no more foolish external Chinese flight capital that can overpay to drive up and maintain prices.

    There is so much wrong with this argument that I don’t even know where to start. Let me suggest you go back to those basic economics texts you say you read in college.

  238. 1738
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1701:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1697:

    RE: Justme @ 1695RE: Juststoppedby @ 1688 – So, if I understand you correctly, the 2015_2016 market was based on massive Chinese money that then receded in 2018. Now at the end of 2019, inventory is in the same place as end of 2015 and 2016, even without the impact of those earlier Chinese sales levels. That would not seem to be good news for you.

    I have never claimed that buyers from China were the only reason that prices went up.

    I said they were a major factor and that factor has largely been removed for the foreseeable future….

    We’ve reached the current equivalent inventory with that removal already in place. Howevermuch a factor, they’ve been replaced. So how is the absence a major factor going forward? That is the point of all this, isn’t it?

  239. 1739
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1701

    You are only looking at the demand side of the equation. Sellers get a vote too. They look at their options and say “Meh, at that price, why sell? I am going to hold”. You see that as a non-decision, but in fact it is a decision.

    Here at the end of 2019, we have about 1825 (my best guess, Ardell can let us know the official figure) willing sellers in King County. We are fully back in 2016 territory.

    A lot of discretionary sellers are holding off because they believe it is worth their while to wait. They are voting as they say, with their feet, by not making a move.

  240. 1740
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1701 – Inventory has retreated to 2015/ 2016 levels and prices are higher. Whatever the impact level, they’ve been replaced.

  241. 1741
    Eastsider says:

    Too many RE vested parties trolling with anecdotes. So here are some facts –

    Bifurcated Seattle markets
    – Low tier housing is definitely on a tear. CS Home Price Index (Low Tier) for Seattle, Washington is at an all time high. I attribute it to FED’s low interest rate policy.
    – High tier housing is struggling. CS Home Price Index (High Tier) for Seattle, Washington hit its peak in June 2018.

    The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) included Seattle in its GTO relating to Cash Real Estate Deals a year ago. When FinCEN first targeted Miami in early 2016, corporate entity (LLC) cash purchases (money laundering?) dropped from 29 percent of all residential transactions to 2 percent and has stayed there. Expect the same to happen here.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article213797269.html

    Chinese capital control and FinCEN are definitely hurting high tier and new construction markets, despite FED’s drastic interest rate intervention.

  242. 1742

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1703

    Not a good time to verify inventory levels and then read those numbers into “market conditions”, since this is the time of year when many sellers are off market for the holidays. Taken off market is about 20% higher in 4th quarter than 1st quarter, as example.

    But I did want to do the full break down today so we can see the trend moving forward, so here goes. King County of course. I’m putting the categories as I need them to be for my work, but you can add them together anyway you please.

    Total 2388
    Condo 632
    Residential 1756

    Condo
    0 bedrooms 27
    1 bedroom 184
    2 bedroom 294
    3 bedroom 92
    4+ bedroom 35

    Residential 1.756
    0 bedroom 27
    1 bedroom 17
    2 bedroom 209
    3 bedroom 503
    4 bedroom+ 1,000

    3 bedroom 503
    352 of the 503 were built between 1900 and 2018

    4 bedroom + 1,000
    588 of the 1,000 were built between 1900 and 2018
    412 were built in 2019 or later including 137 that are Presales

    I don’t usually count the houses that aren’t built yet as there are many more Presales that are not listed. So I tend to exclude the Presales entirely since they are not houses people can go see and buy. But you can mix that all up anyway you like.

    I like to track 3 bedroom condos because they are a limited commodity and a valid option for families who need more than 2 bedrooms but can’t afford a house. To me they are the most critical type of viable housing that they are not building enough, if any, of. So they become of more value with each cycle. It’s also why I ignore all the talk about filling the gap in needed housing with more and more new apartment buildings. Virtually none seem to be 3 bedroom, so not much help for families who can’t afford homes. Sad really. Gives me huge respect for the existing and affordable 3 bedroom condos.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated by ARDELL in Real Time and not Published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  243. 1743

    RE: Eastsider @ 1705

    That was a year and a half ago, so wouldn’t those numbers and market impact already by “in”?

  244. 1744
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1702:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1666
    How many are Japanese? Or Koreans? Or Thais? Or Vietnamese? Or Tibetans with an Indian passport?

    First you call Chinese homebuyers bottom feeders, and now you’re implying that all Asian nationalities look the same?

    Nice one, round eye!

    Good thing that the righteous indignation around here is more self-serving than sincere, or else you might be getting a talking to! :-)

  245. 1745
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1708
    Quit with the PC crap. It’s annoying. If you are a weak whiner, you should leave. If you want to duke it out in an intelligence battle, do that. When you realize that you are losing because you are less intelligent, stop turning it into someone hurt your feelings. When you lose, just acknowledge that and move forward with enlightenment.

  246. 1746
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Erik @ 1709:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1708
    Quit with the PC crap. It’s annoying. If you are a weak whiner, you should leave.

    Sigh… it was a joke Erik.

    Everything you’re saying here would more appropriately be targeted towards Ardell, because she was actually doing what you are accusing me of doing.

    And her righteous indignation generally seems to rise up when she doesn’t have a strong argument to make. Ah, irony…

    There is an easy argument to make against the supply/demand curve case that Deerhawke (and you) has been trying to make, I just don’t feel like making it now.

    I’m waiting to see if anybody made it up to chapter 3 in that economics 101 book…

  247. 1747
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1709:

    Quit with the PC crap.

    I think you meant it for Ardell @1669 @1677?

  248. 1748
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1705 – There is NO extradition agreement between the US and China. Only a modest, at best, rule of law in China. Chinese people don’t trust the Chinese Government.

    FinCen, therefore, means what?

  249. 1749
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1706

    Ardell, many thanks for the information. (Although clearly I will have to view it not as fact but as mere anecdote because you are a RE vested party! ;) )

    No question your numbers are more accurate than the gross numbers we get from the NWMLS in their breakouts each month. And interestingly the numbers you are pulling are more conservative.

    But those monthly breakout numbers are the ones we can compare month to month and year to year to look for trends. I agree that December is not a particularly good time to try to read inventory levels as an indicator except as a gauge of how this month this year stacks up with this month last year. It is the whole curve, the whole trajectory of inventory that is important, not this month per se.

    But also we can see that normally where one year ends is a good indicator of
    1) where the next January’s numbers would generally begin, and
    2) where the normal rise in inventory for that year will be unless there is a major tightening/loosening shift in the market.

    I have been pretty clear in saying what I think the market will do this spring. I think it is conservative to say that the market will be like 2016 in terms of inventory and that median prices will rise 4-5%. (However, I think this figure is actually quite deceptive because buyers are getting less for their money over time in terms of square footage as new SF Houses and townhouses/rowhouses get smaller.)

    Ardell, at the end of last year you gave us your thoughts about where the market would be in 2019. Care to share your thoughts on 2020?

  250. 1750
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 1712 – Are you aware that most mainland Chinese buyers are absentee homebuyers? I don’t get your point.

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