NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,954 comments:

  1. 1751
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1705

    I haven’t seen anything in the news on how Fincen has had any effect on transactions in King County or on the real estate market here. There were some articles in late 2018 when Seattle was announced as a target, but nothing since then. Have you seen anything on the effects in this area?

  2. 1752
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1715 – Here is the FED working paper on the effect of FinCEN/GTO on the Miami market. Miami was the first market subject to tightened regulations.

    Anonymous Capital Flows and U.S. Housing Markets
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3186634

  3. 1753
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1714 – I don’t see how the US Gov investigating Chinese home buyers could have any meaning unless they are pass-throughs for Iranian, North Korean or drug trafficking money.

    That the Chinese buyer properties here with money removed from China without Communist Chinese approval does not appear to be a crime of any sort – rea\gardless of absentee purchase.

  4. 1754
    David says:

    Here’s an article that shockingly says Seattle home prices have gone up in line with inflation:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-prices-higher-than-last-year-for-third-month-in-a-row/

  5. 1755
    Deerhawke says:

    Kind of interesting that the Redfin inventory feed went from 1764 at midnight to 1674 an hour later.

    Normally I would assume that someone transposed two numbers. But the feed continues at the new lower level for the New Year, 90 units lower.

    Hmmm. Just catching up with a batch of stuff that had been sitting on the desk since Christmas Eve? Too much champagne at the New Years party?

    Gotta wonder about that.

  6. 1756
    uwp says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1719:

    Kind of interesting that the Redfin inventory feed went from 1764 at midnight to 1674 an hour later.

    Normally I would assume that someone transposed two numbers. But the feed continues at the new lower level for the New Year, 90 units lower.

    I think it’s just the end-of-year listing removal. It doesn’t show up in the feed last year because that was when the feed froze for a week or two, but looking back at 2017-2018 it dropped 70 at midnight, looks like around 70 in 2016-2017, and 100 from 2015-2016.

    I’m sure Ardell could add more info here.

  7. 1757

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1719
    Happy New Year DeerHawke

    Sounds like you weathered the champagne OK, I know what you mean….the end of the year administration at my retirement office is on over time too. Ya retire and the work follows ya home…LOL

    I had many 2020 passwords to change and new accounts to set up…I did get all my URLs/passwords organized in writing, I’m already for a computer crash now…LOL…at least my 2006 HP with 2007 Office Pro O/S [it did have VISTA junk O/S] was purchased brand new on eBay for $200, LOL…it came with Microsoft Office 2010 too. Its actually made out of metal, has a 17″ screen and a built in fan. My guess is it won’t crash for years without patches either….LOL…the S/W actually works on the Windows 2007 O/S. Windows 2010 will cancel its patches soon anyway, at a theater near you.

    I’m not the only one keeping the older/better stuff going…LOL…there’s about 30,000,000 of us still using the Windows 2007 O/S….MSFT and its hoards of foreign slave wage H-1Bs are reaching for the Black Label Now…LOL…make sure you have anti-virus installed if you follow my path….Century Link internet fire walls are porous too, switch to Xfinity.

  8. 1758

    Time to Pour Out the Black Label from Your New Years Eve Coffee Mug and Fill It With Yuban to Read the Brief:

    “…Our region has changed dramatically from a decade ago. The late Paul Allen is on our list of 13 people who have shaped the Seattle area, from politics to sports, business and the arts. And as we head into the 2020s, you might want to keep an eye on these local movers and shakers. (Photo: John Lok / The Seattle Times, 2014)…”

    SWE’s Take: Since when do the Uber Rich Elite sports owners and high tech billionaires shape a city without voter approval? Isn’t that Fascism folks or did the “real” history books I read brainwash me? Its like being ruled by foreign overlords in my book.

    “…A family member hit LaShawn Claiborne, and then she and her baby became homeless. A month later, she phoned Wellspring Family Services and help arrived, starting with an Uber full of diapers and two Fred Meyer gift cards. Now Claiborne has an apartment, child care and a college scholarship. Wellspring benefits from The Seattle Times Fund For The Needy; here’s how to help. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times) …”

    SWE’s Take: We need 1000s+ of these Wellspring agencies to solve homelessness, not just one.

    Its a mess Bubbleheads, we either infuse Seattle with cheaper housing for homeless and watch all home prices decrease, or do nothing about homelessness and watch it implode just like Obamacare healthcare costs…what a choice. That’s why we do nothing about it IMO.

  9. 1759
    Eastsider says:

    Latest updates from Redfin Data Center –

    Seattle Metro October SFR Median Sale Price YoY Change –
    Existing homes – up 4.4%
    New Construction – down 14.4%

    New construction is collapsing at an accelerated pace. Beware of any contrary comment from vested parties here. SFR builders are seriously hurting. Expect some to go under.

    SFR New construction YoY median sale price change since March 2019 –
    3/19 0.0%
    4/19 -2.7%
    5/19 -5.9%
    6/19 -6.1%
    7/19 -7.7%
    8/19 -10.3%
    9/19 -12.9%
    10/19 -14.4%

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

  10. 1760
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1723 – Were you using the construction vs. existing graph? March Springtime market seems like kind of a weird starting point for a Q-4 market comparison.

    I used King County, single family, YOY, price/psf. It looks like new construction was down 4.8%, and existing properties were up 4.0%. Both lines were at October – 3 months behind today, and moving up quickly.

    I also checked inventory, where YOY new construction was down 22.8% while existing was down 33.2%.

    Also, the YOY change for days on market was down 72% for new construction and down 24% for existing.

    Made me wonder how things will look going forward, but they have a graph for building permits too. It was down 9.0% YOY, although trending upward.

    Of course, condos and townhouses will look different.

  11. 1761
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1720

    +1. I thought it was probably something like that, but your data makes the case. My guess is that after a certain point, it is no longer considered active inventory. How they determine that would be interesting to know.

    RE: Eastsider @ 1723

    -1. You must be in the market for a new construction home and therefore trying to convince yourself that builders are going to give it away to you. None of the builders I know are going to do that. Even bad new construction by newbie builders is selling through right now. At these inventory levels, why would builders be in a generous mood? Believe what you like, but be prepared to have your offers ignored.

    To quote Stevie Wonder:

    When you believe in things
    That you don’t understand,
    Then you suffer,
    Superstition aint the way

  12. 1762
    Eastsider says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1724

    The data came from the second to last chart.

    Inventory data and DOM for new construction is useless because many are unlisted. Price/psf is also highly dependent on many variables.

    Of course median sales price is mix dependent. That said, it is clear that high end new construction are in serious decline. -14.4% will essentially wipe off any margin on a new construction home.

  13. 1763
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1725 – I’m not in the market and don’t plan to be in the market in the foreseeable future. No need to resort to unsubstantiated claims/accusations as you often do. I could be wrong but I doubt the new construction market is as healthy as you claim it to be. Don’t like the data, provide your own!

  14. 1764
    Eastsider says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1725:

    -1. You must be in the market for a new construction home and therefore trying to convince yourself that builders are going to give it away to you. None of the builders I know are going to do that. Even bad new construction by newbie builders is selling through right now. At these inventory levels, why would builders be in a generous mood? Believe what you like, but be prepared to have your offers ignored.

    Either you are ignorant or dishonest. The first part about my motive is a cheap shot. The second part? Hmm…

    Here is one new construction listing that is in serious trouble. Purchased in 3/2017 for $800k. Listed at $1.7m in 7/2019. Today’s asking price is $1.5m. I would be surprised if the builder makes any money on the (eventual) sale. I’m sure I can find other examples where builders are losing money.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/2144-NW-201st-St-98177/home/74324

  15. 1765
    N says:

    @Ardell 1706 – Great point about 3 bedroom condos and affordability. I know our family would consider the right condo. I did a quick redfin search for 3 bedroom condos and unfortunately as might be expected most were as expensive or more so than SFH. But I did see a recent one go pending that was listed under $500k, they are out there but maybe not the majority of those 3 bedrooms. I was looking mainly in the city, perhaps the county is different.

    Appreciate your insight as always.

  16. 1766
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1728:

    Here is one new construction listing that is in serious trouble. Purchased in 3/2017 for $800k. Listed at $1.7m in 7/2019. Today’s asking price is $1.5m. I would be surprised if the builder makes any money on the (eventual) sale.

    The problem with this example?

    The previous sale you mentioned at 800k was for a double lot:

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/2144-NW-201st-St-98177/home/74324/nwmls-814250

    And the other half of the now subdivided lot is already pending at $1.5 million.

    Search 2142 NW 201st St. (Seattlebubble hates when I post multiple links)

  17. 1767
    Eastsider says:

    RE: uwp @ 1730 – Yes, I missed the subdivision. The builder should do okay in this case. Still, the current asking price is a 11% drop from initial listing. Here is a new construction in Kirkland that also has a similar 11% price cut.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/10821-NE-108th-Ln-98033/home/168348300

  18. 1768
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1731

    Builder will still make good money. Bought the property for $1m in December 2017. MIght not make $500k, but will probably pocket $200k.

  19. 1769
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1710
    Did you know ardell was the first female bank executive at the bank she worked for in Philadelphia? I’m pretty sure she understands basic economics if she is a former bank executive, wouldn’t you think?

  20. 1770

    RE: Erik @ 1709
    LOL Erik

    High School drop outs may have good paying jobs when they are industrial workers, like plumbers and garbage men, but their grasp of Safety Engineering, etc is a joke. Even Poptart degreed folks all line up for foreign company [made in America, Engineered on Pluto] non-union [like $15/hr at American Toyota plants] junk, then call it innovative because its got a $59.99 factory cost rear camera or other cheap OEM PurpleTooth electronics stuffed into its insane base price tag. You and I have manufacturing engineering on-the-job skills and experience and know car value is almost entirely die stamping of steel [preferably American pig iron that doesn’t rust and is cheaper than Japanese scrap metal body panels] and engine/transmission innovation designs that don’t come new but every few decades. BTW, the Turbo-Hydromatic Automatic Design was invented in the 60s by Chrysler, then GM bought it and sold ’em to Mercedes for 40-50 years…LOL…I believe GM still uses that design too.

  21. 1771
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1731

    Maybe you also missed that line in the write-up, “The first of three being built.” Obviously, if your land cost is split across two or three houses, it changes the profitability of the overall project.

    Really, you are making my point for me. You have some underlying motive for hoping builders are failing and it is leading you to make obvious mistakes. If you are not buying or selling, what is the motivation? Did a builder redevelop a lot next door to you? Is that the source of the animus?

  22. 1772

    OK…Assuming a Lot Of You Folks Are Back at the Office Today and You Tore Down the Christmas Lights and Carefully Stored Them in Boxes Yesterday, You Can Fill Your Mugs …With Yuban and Read the Brief:

    “…Light-rail trains will be extra crowded for the next 10 weeks, and an estimated 30,000 riders will have to change trains at Pioneer Square each day while workers link up tracks from Seattle to the Eastside. The project involves transit-tunnel closures, too, starting this weekend. Know how this will work and where the pain points are….”

    SWE’s Take: The Seattle Squeeze Traffic is Horrifying Now, for the next 3 months its gonna be far worse Bubbleheads…??? Telework is becoming a necessity now, not an option?

    “…We can expect an especially chilly January in the Northwest, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The exception: An unseasonably warm day is coming … but brace for “fast and furious” rain and wind in Seattle after that, a meteorologist says…”

    SWE’s Take: Global Warming or coming Ice Age? LOL

    “…Drivers rang in the new year “encased in tumbleweeds” after high winds blew prickly bushes into a mound as high as 30 feet, trapping six vehicles on a highway near the Tri-Cities. Workers faced the sticky predicament of how to clear debris that covered a distance of about three football fields. Check out the photos and video of what the State Patrol is calling “Tumblegeddon.”…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds like that old horror movie, “Attack of the Blob”…LOL

    “…
    Scandies Rose sinks
    A stormy rescue and a tragedy: 5 crabbers missing off Alaska
    The mayday call from the Scandies Rose came in around 10 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, after a forecast that had called for high winds, heavy freezing spray and seas up to 21 feet. Hours later, a helicopter lifted two crew members from a life raft. The Coast Guard last night suspended its search for five others on the boat, managed by a Seattle-based company. This comes three years after the deadly sinking of the Seattle-based Destination. (Photo courtesy of Deanna Cobban, November 2019)
    NEED TO KNOW
    Light-rail trains will be extra crowded for the next 10 weeks, and an estimated 30,000 riders will have to change trains at Pioneer Square each day while workers link up tracks from Seattle to the Eastside. The project involves transit-tunnel closures, too, starting this weekend. Know how this will work and where the pain points are.

    Drivers rang in the new year “encased in tumbleweeds” after high winds blew prickly bushes into a mound as high as 30 feet, trapping six vehicles on a highway near the Tri-Cities. Workers faced the sticky predicament of how to clear debris that covered a distance of about three football fields. Check out the photos and video of what the State Patrol is calling “Tumblegeddon.”

    We can expect an especially chilly January in the Northwest, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The exception: An unseasonably warm day is coming … but brace for “fast and furious” rain and wind in Seattle after that, a meteorologist says.

    “…Thousands of people are fleeing Australia’s wildfire-ravaged eastern coast ahead of worsening winds and heat at the peak of the holiday season. Hundreds of properties have been destroyed, and some communities are cut off by blazes. Here’s why this fire season has been so ferocious…”

    SWE’s Take: Read the raw data on Australia’s January’s are always hot, the last hundred years flat temperatures and hot. This is not climate change folks, its normal.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/01/forgotten-historic-hot-temperatures-recorded-with-detail-and-care-in-adelaide/

    “…A $500,000 grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation shows Washington’s youth in foster care that the community is ready to step up and help them achieve their dreams, The Seattle Times editorial board writes….”

    SWE’s take: I thought all Gates gave billions to was Africa Malaria? This must be a $100K token gift to Seattle poor and homeless, LOL…

    Good News: Enjoy your vacation and time off today, if you are the lucky ones….that train tunnel closure portends a complete traffic mess through next Easter?

  23. 1773
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1731:

    RE: uwp @ 1730 – Yes, I missed the subdivision. The builder should do okay in this case. Still, the current asking price is a 11% drop from initial listing. Here is a new construction in Kirkland that also has a similar 11% price cut.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/10821-NE-108th-Ln-98033/home/168348300

    This is another lot that was subdivided. Bought for $1 million, looks like 3 homes coming in, with the first pending at $2 million. If the builder gets $6 million total, I don’t think they will be crying about a price cut.

  24. 1774

    Amazon Fires All Climate Change Activists Now??

    https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/article/Amazon-threatens-to-fire-critics-who-are-14944463.php

    I see AMZ stock up like 20% for 2019 in Trump’s economy:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/amazon-stock-could-surge-20-percent-in-2019-analyst-says.html

    Sounds like Bezos must like Trump now, he’s wearing his red MAGA hat now…LOL…who would know? LOL

  25. 1775
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1735 – No. I don’t wish for anyone to fail. I am just pointing out that the high end segment is struggling and price reduction is common. The low end is rosy, no doubt.

  26. 1776

    RE: Eastsider @ 1739

    Hurting because they had some trouble accurately pricing it is a lot different than hurting because they can’t get 3X lot.

    Show some selling for less than 3X lot. I check all the time and I’m seeing builders pushing for the bubble price of 4X lot, so their not getting it is not a market drop

    Even Deerhawke’s examples of a few builders that got hammered due to mistakes…still made more than 3 x lot.

    Even for resale, the smart move in 2019 was to allow for one price reduction when setting an ask price. So don’t read price reduction as a market drop.

    If the new construction market goes down the new construction will start selling at less than 3 x lot since the lot purchase is usually about a year behind. That’s what you need to look for.

  27. 1777
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1740:

    Hurting because they had some trouble accurately pricing it is a lot different than hurting because they can’t get 3X lot.

    How is (inaccurate) pricing a recent phenomenon? My answer – prices are now dropping and price reduction has become common in that market segment.

    Again, SFR New construction YoY median sale price change since March 2019 –
    3/19 0.0%
    4/19 -2.7%
    5/19 -5.9%
    6/19 -6.1%
    7/19 -7.7%
    8/19 -10.3%
    9/19 -12.9%
    10/19 -14.4%

  28. 1778
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Erik @ 1733:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1710
    Did you know ardell was the first female bank executive at the bank she worked for in Philadelphia? I’m pretty sure she understands basic economics if she is a former bank executive, wouldn’t you think?

    RE: Erik @ 1733

    The comment about supply and demand was more general and not targeted at Ardell.

    I’ve always believed Ardell is intelligent and well informed.

    Your new information, though, reinforces my belief that she is pretty slippery and wiley, too.

    It’s remarkable how often somebody will make a point using actual information, and then it appears that she will totally miss the point in order to distract from it.

    Once her errors have been pointed out, she will generally admit that she misunderstood, or that there was a misunderstanding somewhere else.

    But by this time she tends to have dodged the actual issue and moved on.

    It’s kind of funny how if somebody makes a point she wants to support, her attention to detail is impeccable.

    However, when it is against her interests and the facts are not on her side, it is pretty common to see a little mis-direction here or there until the conversation has moved on.

    A useful skill in sales, politics, or leadership roles, I guess.

  29. 1779

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1742

    I don’t disagree with any of that. The difference is the source of the data.

    When the source is the mls and information that is publicly available and I just have better access to it on an every minute basis, I post the actual data.

    I don’t think that the general public can see how each sale was purchased. I don’t think they can see if it was cash or financed. I don’t think they can see if it was FHA or VA or Conventional or 5% Conventional vs 50% conventional. I may be wrong about that, but I think I have private access to that outside of the mls via a different County Record access.

    So when I give you the facts of whether or not Chinese cash buyers are a major influence or not or if that influence has changed from year to year, I don’t post the data the same as I do for Inventory, as example. It may be publicly available. I don’t really know for sure. When you see a sold property can you see if it was a private lender or cash or 40% down and who the lender was? I don’t think so, but I could be wrong about that since I don’t access info that way. When it is not public info I can give you the answer to the question, but I can’t post the non-public data in specifics.

    You may see that as “slippery and wiley”. I see it as a matter of ethics. It is helpful when I post publicly available mls data. It is unethical for me to post data that only I can access by special privilege.

    For instance when the data was posted here by someone using data that is only referencing Redfin posted data that was only about Redfin transactions, I asked what the person thought the % of total marketshare that reflected. Mainly I wanted to know if he thought that info was useful if it only represented 1% or 3% or even 10% of market share. Yes, I do know the answer, but I would not post it here as the means by which I know that is not public information. If the person answered 30%, as example, I could get the actual number and merely state no or yes. I can do a true or false. I can’t show the actual data.

    So yes, you are correct. There are times and with good reason that I “show my work” as the nuns used to say and there are times when I don’t. But I have good reason for each.

    I did not run the data this time because the statement was made that a sale bought with 20% down and financed locally by a person we know isn’t remotely Chinese could have been impacted by a “Chinese Cash Buyer”. One who didn’t win in multiple offers If they are including any and all people who were in the bidding…who did not win…as a major market influence, I cannot dispute that as the data will never reveal the people who may have submitted an offer and did not get the house. Once they stretched the point to what they want to believe regardless of the data…no reason to run the data. If they are going to include phantom people…no need for me to round up the real people.

    But yes, I can see how it would appear as you have stated.

    P.S. Minor correction. I wasn’t THE first female bank officer, I was one of the first and likely the youngest. But not THE first as was stated. I don’t think that means anything since it was over 40 years ago. Mostly it just means that I’m that old. LOL! But thanks Erik. :)

  30. 1780
    N says:

    Is January the New April?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/competition-for-housing-is-so-high-the-spring-market-is-starting-now.html

    The numbers are telling. From 2015 through 2018, the peak month for average views per listing on Realtor.com was April. January lagged by a full 16%. In 2019, however, January was the busiest month on the site in 20 of the largest 100 metropolitan markets.

    Those markets included New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, Denver and San Jose, California. In 2018, January was the busiest month in just three of the largest 100 markets. This year, the expectation is that January will be the strongest month in even more markets.

  31. 1781
    uwp says:

    Speaking of public data research, I was looking at the history of this house, https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6528-3rd-Ave-NW-98117/home/496307, (I’ve been watching 3/2’s in the neighborhood) and was wondering why it was pulled relatively quickly in the Fall and then put back on the market during the holidays. From checking the sales history in the Parcel Viewer it looks like the seller bought it back in the 1983 from an estate, but the deed never got recorded, and they never figured it out until it was for sale 35 years later. Then they had to spend 3 months fixing it.

    I wonder if that will actually end up helping them as the market seems pretty brisk at the moment.

    EDIT: I actually just refreshed the listing and it’s pending already (5 days after re-listing). So I guess the answer to that is yes.

  32. 1782
    richard says:

    the propaganda machine is in full power this year. i saw prediction of strong housing market 2020 from almost every news media. the only place market prediction not so bullish is san francisco. maybe san franciso will lead the trend. i guess it is time to witness something very interesting, according to many “experts”, spring is now. should i expect to see bidding war will start again here next week? last year i thought the inventory will go up tremendously and i was wrong. thus year will be low inventory + bidding war? or s frozen market with no.recession in near term?fed already started qe4 of no qe, amd it still have 3 or 4 rate cuts to keep party going. wow, i am really lost jn this market. keep renting and keep investing…

  33. 1783
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1743

    Nice attempt at misdirection, even to the point of setting up the strawman argument about your ethics and the data that you’re concocting in the lab.

    If it’s not publicly available, and it hasn’t been vetted by somebody other than your magic eight ball or a coworker, it doesn’t count.

    Maybe you’ll come back and say it was a misunderstanding again, just like I indicated was your MO in the previous post.

    Or maybe there is some feigned, righteous indignation can throw at me? Like when you somehow drew a connection between the use of financing and racism?

    In any case, I need to dial back by posting to this site, or else my user name won’t fit anymore…

    Regards

  34. 1784
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1747

    I don’t think you understood what I said. I can see it in the County Record, but I dont think you can. I think it’s a private access that only agents have. It’s not a magic 8 ball. It’s an agent access password.

    I really am confused by your oddball accusations.

  35. 1785
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1748:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1747

    I don’t think you understood what I said. I can see it in the County Record, but I dont think you can. I think it’s a private access that only agents have. It’s not a magic 8 ball. It’s an agent access password.

    I really am confused by your oddball accusations.

    I understand exactly what you said, and your response is just what I would’ve expected.

    More “alternative facts”.

    Reminds me a little bit of “ My family is really royalty from another country, but I just can’t prove it to you because then they would find out where we are“ type stuff.

    If it is not publicly available, verifiable information, it doesn’t count. More of the same….

  36. 1786
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1749 – Brilliant, sir. Any information not easily available to the lowest common denominator is just not real information. I tell that to my doctor and lawyer all the time.

    Dumbest post of the decade?

  37. 1787
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1750:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1749 – Brilliant, sir. Any information not easily available to the lowest common denominator is just not real information. I tell that to my doctor and lawyer all the time.

    Dumbest post of the decade?

    LOL, yes, that is exactly the way to interpret what I was saying.

    Well done, sir (or madam)!

  38. 1788
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1749

    Ardell has been contributing on this site as far back as I have been reading Seattle Bubble. Back pretty close to the beginning, I would guess. She has always been thoughtful, insightful, and well-informed. She has access to real data and real-time data and is one of very few agents who I know who can analyze that data in depth. She is the real deal. I value what she has to say. Full stop.

    People like you who just stopped by to troll have no real value and nothing real to contribute.

  39. 1789

    RE: Eastsider @ 1739
    Our Sister City SF Reports Reports in Last Place

    On home sales in nation now….Seattle next? Sanctuary City taxes, homelessness and high rents to blame.

    “…Bay Area will be nation’s coolest housing market in 2020, survey says…”

    Time to fill your mugs, tune out the Iran Mess, and swallow the Yuban down…read the Brief:

    “… Seattle loses longtime shelter, a last hope for many young people
    These beds are empty now, after the closure this week of a shelter called Peace for the Streets by Kids from the Streets. This reduces Seattle’s capacity to provide emergency shelter for young people by nearly 20% in an era of high demand. “This place has been holding me together,” said Joshua Harris, 25, who wasn’t sure where he would sleep. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: Homelessness beds shrink by 20%, good gosh this is horrifying, so what if a lucky lottery winner gets homelessness aid in Seattle, most are thrown out in the cold ditch to survive. The young folks working “burger flipper” wages and no family or friends in Seattle are screwed.

    “…Frightened Australians are fleeing a “blast furnace” as forecasters warn that this will be the worst weekend yet in an epic fire season. Residents are making life-or-death decisions as houses explode. Navy ships are rescuing hundreds of people stranded on beaches. Close to half-a-billion animals may be dead … and summer has barely started. Here’s a Q&A on what’s fueling this “horrific convergence of events.”…”

    SWE’s take: Hot January’s in Australia, aren’t a “horrifying convergence of events” like Climate Change allegates…its normal temperatures flat for the last century. Grow a brain.

    “…Residents are unnerved by a mystery in the skies over Colorado and Nebraska: When it gets dark, large drones in precise formations keep arriving. Whose are they, and why are they there?…”

    SWE’s Take: The drones have patrolled the air for decades after dark in the Kent area….its that slow moving low elevation light in the sky I’ve seen for a longtime, I imagine they have night vision too.

    “…A Seattle glass factory that’s been around for 45 years may close. Northwestern Industries’ glass graces suburban homes, bus shelters and some of the most iconic structures in the Seattle area. Its likely shutdown is a sign of the challenges that even successful manufacturers face here….”

    SWE’s Take: How many will be laid off and what was their pay?

    “…A Netflix series inspired by a Lynnwood teen’s rape case is up for four Golden Globes this Sunday. Writer Susannah Grant, who adapted the true story by T. Christian Miller and former Seattle Times reporter Ken Armstrong, talks about how “Unbelievable” came together — starting with her “very strong gut reaction” to the case…”

    SWE’s Take: Seattle area crime makes good screen plays now?

    “…The hottest home-design trends for 2020 can incorporate local flavor. Keep the Seahawks gear to the fan cave, and look for classic craftsmanship, lodge-chic and Pacific Northwest minimalism in these favorite pieces…”

    SWE’s Take: Is that a good thing on a house? A Seahawk styled home? LOL Maybe its football shaped…LOL

    “…In each of Washington’s last three legislative sessions, Attorney General Bob Ferguson has called for an assault-weapons ban, and both the House and Senate declined to bring the bill to the floor for a vote. Lawmakers in 2020 must either vote on a ban or send the issue to the people to decide, The Seattle Times editorial board writes…”

    SWE’s Take: AG Ferguson replaces the need for elections and voter approval of gun control anyway? LOL

    “…Bellevue Community College opens in 1966 with about 450 students and 40 faculty, with classes held in portables at Newport High School. Welding is a popular course and qualifies students for jobs in Seattle’s shipyards. In 2009, the name changes to Bellevue College, and today it’s the third-largest institution of higher learning in Washington, enrolling 32,000 students. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s take: So that means 31550 CC 2 yr graduates get to flip burgers after their horrifying college debts? We’ll lay off the ones with “just” high school diplomas to make room for them in the $10-15/hr pay workforce?

    Good News: We escaped snow so far, but that bitter cold a few weeks ago could be back? Its like Jack Nicholson in “The Shining” with his head in the bathroom door hole clutching an ax, shouting “I’m back”…LOL

  40. 1790
    don says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1748

    Ardell, Is this a paid subscription access?
    Given that King County is a public agency, it seems like anyone should have the same opportunity to see into the data. I looked on the King site, saw no way to get at different levels of info. What am I missing?

  41. 1791
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1754 – No all county information are online. But you can certainly obtain any public information that Ardell possesses with a visit to the county.

  42. 1792
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1755

    Ah… like the old days, a paper search?
    I had assumed she could see it all online. Hard to imagine a busy agent or other real estate player bellying up to a gray counter and asking for paper.

  43. 1793
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1752
    It is ironic that the housing bubble blog has been taken over by vested RE parties. People visit this site to learn about the bubble. (They won’t come here in the first place if they don’t believe there is a bubble lol.) Instead, they are bombarded with propaganda from vested parties . Who cares if you have been in the business a long time when your comments are biased, evasive, and deliberately misleading. They will claim that Redfin data is flaw yet provide nothing to disprove it. (Okay, they had anecdotes, misdirection, and being in the business longer than Redfin lol.)

  44. 1794
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1756 – MLS, banks etc get a data dump from KC regularly. It takes some effort for individuals. I assume some day everything (or most data) will be available online, if and when they get to it.

  45. 1795
    Beano says:

    By Eastsider @ 1757:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1752
    It is ironic that the housing bubble blog has been taken over by vested RE parties. People visit this site to learn about the bubble. (They won’t come here in the first place if they don’t believe there is a bubble lol.) Instead, they are bombarded with propaganda from vested parties . Who cares if you have been in the business a long time when your comments are biased, evasive, and deliberately misleading. They will claim that Redfin data is flaw yet provide nothing to disprove it. (Okay, they had anecdotes, misdirection, and being in the business longer than Redfin lol.)

    Not exactly. Many people seek to learn and gather info to make decisions. You don’t have to believe in anything to be here.

  46. 1796
    uwp says:

    By Eastsider @ 1757:

    It is ironic that the housing bubble blog has been taken over by vested RE parties. People visit this site to learn about the bubble. (They won’t come here in the first place if they don’t believe there is a bubble lol.) Instead, they are bombarded with propaganda from vested parties .

    Agents/Brokers/Lawyers have been hanging around SB since the early days. Ardell got made fun of a lot back in the 2006-2009 range, especially when the forum was (somewhat) active. https://seattlebubble.com/blog/forum/#/discussion/comment/19217
    I remember one post about how she buried a statue of Saint Joseph in the yard of a house for sale to help. I’m not sure what year that was.

    Anyway, all the differing voices have been here for years, it’s just without our fearless leader making at least a monthly post, things get off track.

  47. 1797
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1751:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1750:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1749 – Brilliant, sir. Any information not easily available to the lowest common denominator is just not real information. I tell that to my doctor and lawyer all the time.

    Dumbest post of the decade?

    LOL, yes, that is exactly the way to interpret what I was saying.

    Well done, sir (or madam)!

    No interpretation needed. You were debunking information from the county, but not easy for you to locate, as illegitimate: while stating that only “public ” information counts.

  48. 1798
    IssaquahResident says:

    Could somebody suggest relevant links to check possible liens on a property and any other obligations tied up to a house.

  49. 1799

    RE: uwp @ 1760

    :) That wasn’t about “me” burying a statue. That was about the Wall Street Journal calling me to explain why people do that. It is a “home selling kit” you can buy on Amazon. After the article ran in WSJ the Seattle paper re-ran the original article. The practice started in the 1400s…so no. It really wasn’t about “me”.

  50. 1800

    RE: don @ 1756

    Yes, I can see it online for all properties. It’s not as extensive as what I get on the Preliminary Title Report. I think I remember your being an attorney from past comments, so I’ll assume you know the full process.

    It is within the MLS function to shift to a tax search and there are many things we can do there. They are making some changes and the old system and new system are now running concurrently. There could be changes in the near future. But for now we pretty much have full search access in addition to the data and the data is not a lump dump. Each property can be viewed individually or on a combined basis.

    For instance if I have a client looking for a house in 98033, I can find all of the properties ever built that fit those parameters and that buyer’s price point. It comes in handy when the answer is none were ever built…so stop looking for “it”. :)

    It goes hand in hand with the same MLS password and I have always been able to see the liens in the 5 States where I have been licensed. Primarily to see if the property might be a Short Sale. But it has also come in handy on occasion when someone claims to own a property that doesn’t, or at least doesn’t own it solely.

    It’s one of the ways I look at the true rise and fall of markets over time, as I can search a large housing development by name so that I am using all like kind products. Hence “the mix” doesn’t gets as skewed. I can see the original sold prices and graph the price changes since inception going back to sometime in the 70’s. Most useful in neighborhoods like Sheffield Greens. I like to track the expanded influence of Microsoft, since that neighborhood was built around the same time the Main Campus opened and they had their IPO and it’s large enough in all of its Phases (and directly across the street pretty much). Since I didn’t live and work in this area at that time, it is an interesting way to know more than my own personal experience allows.

    I can also go much further back than the mls holds data and back to when the County data was put into computers. The difference is about 4x as much data. I don’t think many agents use it the way I do, and I fear for that reason they are going to be dumbing it down soon.

  51. 1801
  52. 1802
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1761

    Wow, Your insight is just…

    Wow. You complete me.

  53. 1803

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1765

    It is illegal for me to discuss real estate without using my real and licensed name. Or so it has always been prior to “social media” and I believe that law still applies for agents when online talking about real estate. There is a “one click rule” that says my name has to link to the Brokerage where my license hangs. When answering from my phone I try not to comment on topics that require me to comply with that law, since my phone doesn’t provide the link as easily. So those comments are a bit less data infused and more “frothy”. :) The data posts require a longer disclosure, as you have likely seen. We have lots of rules and laws to comply with as licensed agents and members of the mls. I try my best with all those overlapping do’s and don’ts.

    If I were on a political site talking about politics, maybe I could use a fake name. But I’ve never used a fake name so it doesn’t come easily to me.

    I always read the comments here whether I am talking or not. I tend to talk more in the “off” season. But I always read pretty much every comment as seeing things from the average person perspective is helpful to me. In exchange I do try to provide some input of value from time to time. I also send money to the site monthly. :) I don’t access the reports that money provides to me because I prefer to do my own stats. But when someone is perplexed by data they are seeing, I try to be helpful.

    Much has changed over the years as initially people who comment here would also comment where I was writing, so there has always been overlap. My current writings, that have about 2,000 veiws a day, are on Quora on more general mostly real estate topics and not usually of interest locally. Still I write there…to provide info. But almost always only when people there ask me specifically to answer their question.

  54. 1804
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1767

    >>It is illegal for me to discuss real estate without using my real and licensed name.

    Illegal? Hardly. Breach of some private contract between you and NWMLS or NAR? Possibly.

  55. 1805
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 1768

    Legal. Department of Licensing I think. The disclosure in comments with stats is mls. Easier to remember what I can and can’t do than to remember where each comes from. I’m not a Member of NAR. Though have been at times in the past 30 years. Some of our local rules mirror theirs and I stay on top of NAR things around the Country.

  56. 1806
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1763

    Frankly Ardell, I am a little disappointed that you are not one of those agents burying one of those little statues of Saint Joseph in the yard. I thought you were a full-service agent!

    But let me ask, if you do bury one of those things in the yard, does it need to be disclosed on the Form 17?

  57. 1807
    don says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1764

    Thanks for the response, Ardell.

    That must be a powerful tool to make sense out of things.

    @ Eastsider, thanks as well.

  58. 1808

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1770

    There was a National Podcast on a Radio Show of my explaining it, but I think that link is broken now.

    I have buried the statue. The first time my client asked me to do it because she was Jewish and wanted to do it, but thought it would have more influence if I did it. That was back in 1994 or so. A fortune teller had told her to do it. Problem is I forget to go get him out so he’s likely still there in the ground. You’re supposed to take him out when the house sells.

    I secretly did one once for an investment property of my Broker who had a lot riding on it. I didn’t tell him. I just went over and did it.

    When the Seattle Times called me they wanted to run the article with a picture of me doing it. They copied the exact article from WSJ but sent out a photographer. On that one I did the REAL practice, which is not to bury Saint Joseph upside down to SELL a house. It is to bury it in the ground of a property you want to purchase. So I did it on a Bellevue house that my client was trying to buy as a short sale that was particularly difficult, and The Times took the picture there.

    Look up St. Teresa of Avila. That’s where it comes from. But they buried upside down medals vs statues buried head down. Basically I was the National Expert because I’m Catholic and not because I used the practice often. But I have used it on occasion and wrote about the difference between using the St. Joseph carrying Baby Jesus statue or the St. Joseph carrying a hammer statue. Doesn’t work if you use the wrong statue, and the kit never has the one families are supposed to use. Only the one agent’s use.

    It’s the first sign of the bubble crashing…agents buying boxes of them…and that’s when the articles start popping up again. No one buries them in a hot market.

  59. 1809

    RE: don @ 1771

    It is. I’m holding my breath that they don’t disconnect the older version. I like looking at a whole development from start to finish. The data goes back to 1900 but the prices and mortgages only go back to some time in the 70’s.

    It’s useful to determine the financial health of a neighborhood. I can pretty much tell how many would be underwater if the market receded by x%. That is particularly useful when expecting a crash. Some neighborhoods will have no short sales while others will have all short sales. It depends how much the neighborhood turned over during the peak and the average % down on those purchases. Also on the refinance activity, which is also there.

    I can see both original mortgages and more recent refinances as well. Liens outside of mortgages still require the report from Title and the balances on those unknown until after in escrow, as usual. But you can figure most of it out based on amortization schedules, unless they are in default.

  60. 1810
    Deerhawke says:

    Ardell. You are truly a fount of real estate wisdom. I will check out St. Teresa of Avila.

    I have tear downs where I considered bringing in an exorcist team. Next time I have that thought, I may give you a call for a referral. ;)

  61. 1811
    N says:

    Everyone has their own biases, but remember Ardell has called for a flat and down market in recent years when most realtors kept saying the prices can only go one way theme.

  62. 1812
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1774

    Usually St. Jude for that. Patron Saint of lost causes. Maybe stick him in the pouch with Joseph to be on the safe side. Hammer in hand Joseph, not baby in hand Joseph.

  63. 1813
    kenmorem says:

    By Justme @ 1768:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1767

    >>It is illegal for me to discuss real estate without using my real and licensed name.

    Illegal? Hardly. Breach of some private contract between you and NWMLS or NAR? Possibly.

    glad to see justgone has moved the goalposts again. no longer do we get the daily updates on the inventory explosion. now, it’s a slander effort. bravo.

  64. 1814

    RE: N @ 1775

    That reminds me that Deerhawke asked for my prediction on 2020.

    Recap: Called for Flat to down starting in Dec of 2016 to come anytime in the next 18 months from then. Called for a 10% down in Feb of 18 to come within 6 months of then (DOW had corrected by 10% then…so a 6 month lag), then continued flat to down.

    Both of those happened.

    As for 2020, only a fool predicts a market in an Election Year. But so far it looks like the DOW will hit the 30,000 Trump needs to be re-elected. So watch the DOW. If the Dems can crash it like they did in mid 2007 through 2008, then we’ll see a real estate crash following a DOW crash and the Dems taking over the Presidency (same as 2007-2008). But most of that happens during this year, so it can go either way. Less likely to happen on a 4 year Election Cycle than an 8 year. So if I were betting, I’d go with the odds falling in favor of the market sustaining at flat until 2021.

    Yes, I agree with Deerhawke that if there is no crash there will be a Spring Bump. But that’s just seasonal influence. Won’t know for sure what my official call is until mid Jan when I can run the full stats for 2019.

    I don’t see a wild card for the Dems to play like they did forcing the credit crisis. The only card anyone has for this election is a war, unless you see the Impeachment as a well played card. I don’t. Some Trump supporters passed away since the last election, since many were old white dudes. I know some of them died, at least the ones I know. :) But I don’t think that number is big enough to turn the tide.

  65. 1815
    sfrz says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1752 – She is here to fish. It’s an easy barrel of people that are moving to the area. She plays Glenda the Good Witch to grab business. You don’t see regular posts from other realtors. This is her fishin’ hole.

  66. 1816
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1779
    I took Ardell’s bait in 2013 and it was one of my better decisions. I generally don’t like agents but Ardell is not just some dumb agent.

    Based on my interactions with you, I’d say you fall into the lower intelligence group. You tried to tell me you know more than me about real estate because you have more sales. It’s pretty obvious I’m an investor and flipper and I don’t think the number of transactions makes you smarter. Then you followed Justme and the guy driving from open house to open house in Woodinville to gauge the market. You told everyone the market was about to tank and you were totally wrong. You screwed over people that could have bought for a lower price. It was obvious you were wrong and you wouldn’t listen to anyone! You hurt readers if they were foolish enough to listen to you.

    In summary, Ardell is highly intelligent and you are highly incorrect.

  67. 1817
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 1780 – In summary, you are a blowhard and an Ayn Rand devotee that touts real estate gurus that are fraudulent. You lambaste others if they don’t fall in line with your Rand ideology. You smart others off with your keyboard sword until you think they can help you, then you fawn and salivate over them. Life is all about Eric. Here’s a steaming cup of STFU, with a topping of your next bankruptcy. Cheers.

  68. 1818
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 1524 – “Practice What You Preach
    What upsets me the most is that Kiyosaki is portrayed by many as a financial guru. His Rich Dad, Poor Dad book made him famous because of the practical advice that he pretended to gain throughout his life. He talks about life lessons learned, and how that allowed him to do great things in real estate and other ventures.
    The problem?
    Prior to his 1997 publication of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki never had any documentation of the wealth he supposedly amassed (Forbes)
    There really wasn’t a rich dad, even though his book specifically claims there was one (Smart Money Magazine, February 2003)
    In the end, this “non-fiction” story is just fiction, and so it calls into doubt the advice he gives to readers and followers.
    Even though his advice may sound good: be an owner, invest in cash flow investments, etc – the fact that he (or his business) didn’t maintain solid financial health is sad.” https://thecollegeinvestor.com/4726/ultimate-hypocrite-robert-kiyosaki-companys-bankruptcy/

  69. 1819
    sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 1780 – Objection. I never said Glenda the Good Witch wasn’t highly intelligent. I’m sure she did find you on this site. I would LOVE to know how many fish she’s hooked here.

  70. 1820
    kenmorem says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1778:

    RE: N @ 1775
    I don’t see a wild card for the Dems to play like they did forcing the credit crisis.

    ???
    elaborate please.

  71. 1821
    Erik says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1781
    Gee wiz Sfrz, you seem really angry. 3 angry comments on a row seems a little excessive, don’t you think?

    The real estate gods have been very good to me and I cannot help that. I’m not going to apologize for my good fortune.

    I attribute my good fortune to understanding the market, my network, and buying right. You don’t understand the market and it’s apparent reading your messages. I feel bad for those that listened to you and missed out buying at the right time. I think the responsible thing for you to do at this point is to stop predicting anything because you are predicting something you don’t understand.

  72. 1822
    richard says:

    my contribution to this forum: pointing out the two factors which determined seattle market, chinese money and low interest rate. still true. people come to this forum for insight just need to remember these two things. forget about supply and demand, forget about the strong job market, that is not the factors to turn the tides. so far, chinese money reduced by half but still huge in quantity. fed is trying to keep lobg term rate low. but inflation may start going up since fed alredy stated clearly it want higher inflation. because of this, i am not sure the mortgage rate can be suppressed this low for longer period of time. once rate go back to 2018 level, this market is over.

  73. 1823
    Erik says:

    RE: richard @ 1786
    I would argue that Chinese money and low interest rates increase demand, so you are really saying when demand increases, prices go up. Seemed like hedge funds and Californians played a big part to increase demand as well last big bump.

  74. 1824

    Understanding the Seattle RE Market Means Using Common Sense and Making Financial Decisions Separate From the Lemmings Jumping off the Cliff to Failure

    IOWs….be careful what data you’ve been fed and where you’ve been misled:

    Here’s a good example of village idiots leading the lemmings over the cliff….automobile design ignorance, because you don’t have an automotive design experience or engineering degree in Mechanical Engineering. Folks, high school dropouts are recommending which cars to buy irrespective of Safety Engineering condemning it.

    https://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/42660/general/x/disturbing-trend-eliminating-front-bumpers

    Yes the newer Lexus, etc, etc…[a lot of makes and models IOWs, mostly foreign engineered BTW] has no front bumper for “normal” parallel parking bumper taps. Just a cheap plastic radiator screen that some village idiots call a “crunch zone”…Hades in 1970 your car would have been ticketed by the cops for driving without a front bumper….no wonder auto insurance rates are so high. They sell us unsafe junk and we pretend its good advice…LOL

    When are automotive design experience and “degreed Bachelors of Science” credentials [ethics too] gonna replace “Car and Driver hogwash” with real degreed automotive engineers opinions, not a bunch of uneducated/unskilled “Snow Flakes”, that are not only ill informed, but dangerous to the public if brainwashed too. We need gender neutrality in the workplace, but lets not throw the male babies out with the bath water….LOL…or we’re doomed.

    Make you RE financial decisions armed with real data from real experts, not fake news Fairy Tales.

  75. 1825
    Jeff says:

    RE: Erik @ 1787

    – I might consider demand from foreign investors as “fleeting demand”, in that if they are only here for capital appreciation, then a downturn in the market could be amplified by their exit to the “next” asset or market.

    – I’m not an economist. Is demand classified as the number of consumers wanting to purchase a unit, or by the price any consumer is willing to pay for it? Low interest rates increased the amount the consumer would pay for it (as monthly payments stay the same for a larger loan). Smart people got in early, as interest rates were dropping. Dumb people like me waited for the low rates to finish inflating the RE prices before they needed a house… Now I’ll have to wait for higher rates and buy with a big down payment.

  76. 1826

    RE: Jeff @ 1789
    In Reality Jeff

    They pull out of American RE investments like foreign rats leaving the sinking ship and were robbed by American organized crime prices, snickering at the dumb foreigners…ask Japan in the 90s:

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-02-21-mn-2588-story.html

  77. 1827
    richard says:

    basically savers got screwed by federal reserve. i assume people in this forum know this pretty well. the question is : in 2020, whether or not FED will be impotent. here is the game, fed prepared three things for you , house, bond and stock,which are all at high price level, because you savers has been srewed by fed every single day, so pick your poisn. the other two options not in fed’s favor are gold and bitcoin. what is your game plan, are you ready for 2020?
    house demand is always there, you think homeless people dont want to live in a house?the key how to afford it. so demand is.a false narrative, which i have emphasized before many many times. the real need is a place to live and you can rent a place to meet thid need.
    hope in 2020, ibuyers like redfin and zillow gain more sales. realtor parasite class need to go. no offense to realtors i am simply saying the truth.

  78. 1828
    Eastsider says:

    By Jeff @ 1789:

    Low interest rates increased the amount the consumer would pay for it (as monthly payments stay the same for a larger loan). Smart people got in early, as interest rates were dropping. Dumb people like me waited for the low rates to finish inflating the RE prices before they needed a house… Now I’ll have to wait for higher rates and buy with a big down payment.

    Assuming demands are determined by monthly mortgage payments, it makes sense to buy when interest rates are high. Not only is the loan amount lower, you get the potentially lucrative option of lower monthly payments through refinancing. In addition, when interest rates drop, your home value increases! So if you bought a home in year 2000 when mortgage rates were more than double today’s rates, you would have cut your monthly payments steadily over time to less than half today and saw your home value increased as rates dropped.

  79. 1829
    Eastsider says:

    By richard @ 1786:

    fed is trying to keep lobg term rate low. but inflation may start going up since fed alredy stated clearly it want higher inflation.

    I’ve no idea what the Fed will do, but inflation has been severely underreported. I just received a PSE proposed rate increase mailer. It is asking for an 8% annual increase. Utilities (housing, healthcare, transport) are essential services. So how is inflation at 2%? Retirees on SS know this is a lie. How long can the ruling class pretend that there is no inflation? 2020 is shaping up to be an interesting year IMO.

  80. 1830
    richard says:

    RE: Jeff @ 1789 – jeff, if you are a buyer actually you pray for a high interest rate, the higher the better. Because the house price will come down sharply. unfortunately, it seems you believe what realtor said that low interest is good for buyer. Normally, you can buy a house not because you have a good paying job like working for amazon or google, you buy because lender willing to lend you money. When lending cost goes up because of high interest rate, the buyer pool goes down and therefore it give seller pressure to reduce price.
    I am dreaming about 5% rate every single day as I stated before once it happens the market will be dead then there be a probably will be massive seller exit and you will see some real blood. of course, FED is trying very hard not to let this happen.

  81. 1831

    General Question. I have been trying to compile information to test the 28/36 formula, and more the front end 28% of gross income for house payment.

    I have been gathering information on food costs around the Country. Can someone tell me why, even at the same store such as Costco, things cost twice as much or more here? Example, the 8 can tuna pack is $8 in PA but $16+ here. Even in a comparison to Costco in L.A., ground beef and chicken cost more here.

    Why does food cost so much more here? I’m starting to think that is why this area has a higher % of vegans and vegetarians. Or is there some force at play that wants people to be vegetarian and jacks up the price of meat and fish to that purpose?

    Since Costco is headquartered here, I can’t figure out why Kirkland Brand tuna would cost twice as much here than in the Northeast?

    Anyone know?

  82. 1832
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1769

    Nah. Show me the law that says “A licensed real estate professional may not speak anonymously about real estate on the internet”.

  83. 1833
    Justme says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1777

    I think you just slandered me by falsely accusing me of being a slanderer.

    I think you’re wrong. Is that slander? Maybe not.

    PS: If you can get on NWMLS and generate a correction to the errant inventory data, and Tim will incorporate the corrected data into his data feed, I can make plots. Otherwise I may or may not bother doing it with any regularity.

  84. 1834

    RE: Justme @ 1796

    RCW 18.85:221 “No license issued under the provisions of this chapter shall authorize any person other than the person named on the license to do any act by virtue thereof nor to operate in any other manner than under the name appearing on the license.”

    “Nor to operate in any other manner than under the name appearing on the license”.

    I have been licensed in 5 States and all stated no fictitious names can be used when interacting with the public regarding real estate. I’m sure there are some topics I speak on that wouldn’t require it, like when I’m asking about the price of tuna. But not worth switching back and forth. The no fictitious names has been around long before the internet.

    For instance, I’m not allowed to post a link to a property that is for sale and publicly give my two cents on it. So it follows that I can’t use a fictitious name because that would allow me to do things that I can’t as a licensee do. Though that first part is likely mls and the second part law, there is no reason to parse which comes from where. It’s pretty clear we can’t go around breaking rules under the cover of a fictitious name nor “operate in any manner” under a fictitious name.

    Speaking of fictitious names, I wonder what happened to Ubersalad. He was one of my favorites back in the day.

  85. 1835

    RE: Justme @ 1797

    I think you can go to Redfin, put Seattle or King County in the search box and click on house or townhouse and it will immediately give you a number. I just did Seattle and townhouse and it said “showing 20 of 184 homes” which matches the mls if I look only at the SFH townhomes and not add the condo townhomes.

    I never used it that way, but it looks like you can get up to the minute stats that way.

    Try it.

  86. 1836
    N says:

    @Ardell 1795 – Re: Cost of food. What a great question. It’s really amazing how expensive food is here relative to most the nation. I can only assume much of it is transport costs as we are up here in the northwest corner, far from the big distro areas. A few years ago I was in PA and popped in an Aldis, a dozen traditional eggs was $0.49. When we lived in an area with an aldi’s we use to pick up canned goods regularly for $0.49-$0.69. Avocado was another one we use to find for around $0.49 each. The same price difference applies to organic items. We use to shop at a large market in a top 10 city that had probably 20 varieties of apples at any given time, here in apple country your lucky if you find half of that. It takes some getting use to when you move here, then it just becomes the new norm.

    Luckily there seems to be some increased competition, the chain sprouts is adding locations etc. Southern California is one of the most competitive grocery markets in the country and Aldi’s (which will soon be the 3rd largest grocery by store count) has made a big push into the market, maybe they will come up the coast.

    Similar case can be made the price of gas, easily a $1.00+ more expensive then many places. Some of it is gas tax, but when I looked it up, it turns out the main driver is transport cost as our refineries do not produce much and most is coming up from the gulf.

    Every place has it’s pros and cons though and there are plenty of pros here, just not in the food or cost category in my eyes.

  87. 1837
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1798

    >> RCW 18.85:221 “No license issued under the provisions of this chapter shall authorize any person other than the person named on the license to do any act by virtue thereof nor to operate in any other manner than under the name appearing on the license.”

    What authority has interpreteted this statute as meaning “A licensed real estate professional may not speak anonymously about real estate on the internet”. Has there been an actual court case and a court decision?

  88. 1838

    My God, We Now Know There Was Iran Terrorist Headquarters With Lead Generals in Iraq?

    When did that happen? The MSM fake news didn’t tell us that either. Ya learn something everyday.

    But let’s skip this astounding/revealing story and emphasize the 23% increase in the 2019 DOW, if ya didn’t invest heavy in that this year, your financial advisor was an “educated idiot” in my book…LOL…Hades, it makes investing in average Seattle RE deals that are approx flat lined in 2019 avg price [Tim’s data shows a YOY delta of about 0%, on 2019 price change, IOWs Tim’s $670K] a complete joke, especially with PROPERTY TAXES to boot…LOL..ask Besos if you don’t believe me…LOL

    Steady your nervous investor hand, grab the Yuban mug and read the briefs:

    “… Brace for light-rail hassles as crews link Seattle, Eastside tracks
    Trains will be extra crowded for the next 10 weeks, and an estimated 30,000 riders will have to change trains at Pioneer Square each day while workers link up tracks from Seattle to the Eastside. The project involves transit-tunnel closures, too, starting this weekend. Know how this will work and where the pain points are. Read more….”

    SWE’s Take: 10s of thousands of Train riders will flood the freeways in their cars now, its faster…LOL

    “….AS LONG AS Andy and Laurie have been part of this close-knit Blue Ridge community, this close-knit Blue Ridge community has been woven, and welcomed, into their family’s lives. “When we moved in, there was a whole little army of kids 5 or less,” says Andy. “All the kids were the same age.” Their three […] Read more….”

    SWE’s take: Foster Care isn’t cheap? The future of these kids isn’t good either living with no biological mom and dad….

    “… Provided by City University of Seattle
    Nonprofit boards that reflect the diversity of their communities have a stronger capacity to retain talent and make important inroads into communities they serve. Here’s how to build a diverse board that works well as a team…”

    SWE’s take: But skills and experience, irrespective of ethic group, trump hotair.

    “…Bringing in loads of New Mexico chile peppers for their three Seattle restaurants reminds the Sodos sisters of their youth. Read more….”

    SWE’s Take: Their food choices are making them fat too , how about more fruits and vegetables instead?

    Good News: The 2020 stock market is poised for a 30,000+ DOW under Trump….get off your tail end and invest or blame Trump for your village idiot investment planning? LOL

  89. 1839

    RE: Justme @ 1801

    It would normally not be a Court case. There are several instances around the Country of fines and license suspensions. It has been hard for many industries to keep up with the changes due to technology. Frankly, most Brokerages just have a hard and fast rule that their agents can’t talk on the internet about real estate or they have to proof the material first.

    On the mls level it started with “no blogging” and that instruction is a yes or no on every listing. Then there were discussions as to whether or not talking anywhere on the internet was “mini-blogging”. Redfin was fined heavily for having freelance writers blogging who were not licensed individuals.

    There are many and varied laws and rules that overlap. The oldest, which is not enforced but still there for the most part is that the brokerage name has to have prominence over the agent’s name. But that rule got too hard to enforce. Not sure if it’s still around.

    Many of the rules involve adverstising, but as sfrz noted, there’s a fine line between talking on the internet and advertising. The only brokerage I know who tried to push the envelope on that was Redfin using non-licensed free lance writiers and their fines hit $100,000 quickly. So it really doesn’t matter if it’s law or rules and most agents don’t have that kind of money to test case with.

    “No fictitious names” has always been a given in most every State. So not something new.

    This has caused some issue for several people I know who aren’t licensed and just started blogs about real estate. They end up being hired by a real estate company in some capacity and then it gets pretty gray. In fact I think that is why The Tim is not posting.

    I have a friend who ended up in jail for posting something real estate related on facebook (long story)…not worth taking the chance.

  90. 1840
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1803:

    RE: Justme @ 1801

    “No fictitious names” has always been a given in most every State. So not something new. .

    Folks, the legal issue is irrelevant.

    Nobody is compelling Ardell to post here or anywhere else.

    While most people prefer to remain anonymous, she has made the decision to promote her business and her agenda here.

    If the lack of any anonymity was a hardship, she wouldn’t do it. Instead, the “fishing hole” description is an excellent one.

  91. 1841
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1803

    LOL. So it isn’t any law, but rather private contracts between agents and (certain) brokerages and/or NWMLS that demands that agents “do not blog” or otherwise post on the internet under assumed names.

    That’s exactly what I said to begin with.

  92. 1842
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 1805

    The assumed name is law. The no blogging is mls, as I said.

  93. 1843

    correction: no blogging is a per listing, so no commenting on specific property links. No blogging generally would come from a brokerage and neither law or mls.

  94. 1844
    Beano says:

    RE: Food Costs
    I’ve been in the food business 15 years.

    Short answer: Transportation costs, freight factor, is the main driver of costs for Seattle food.

    Look at a map, Seattle is very isolated geographically and the PNW is relatively sparsely populated. The edge of the country is both to the west and north. In addition there is essentially nothing to the east (and mountains) for a thousand miles. Being near DCs matters. Most are centrally located.

    Seattle is one of the most isolated metro areas in the US.

    Other cost drivers, high minimum wages and relatively higher rates of unionized grocery employees and high real estate costs.

    But freight/isolation is really the answer… Food spoils, the expense of reefer trucks is even greater than typical freight.

  95. 1845
    David says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1804:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1803:

    RE: Justme @ 1801

    “No fictitious names” has always been a given in most every State. So not something new. .

    Folks, the legal issue is irrelevant.

    Nobody is compelling Ardell to post here or anywhere else.

    While most people prefer to remain anonymous, she has made the decision to promote her business and her agenda here.

    If the lack of any anonymity was a hardship, she wouldn’t do it. Instead, the “fishing hole” description is an excellent one.

    Why are you ‘fishing’ around here finger-pointing at people for no reason. Go sit in Lake Union until your balls cool down.

  96. 1846
    Juststoppedby says:

    By David @ 1809:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1804:
    Why are you ‘fishing’ around here finger-pointing at people for no reason. Go sit in Lake Union until your balls cool down.

    Really? Acknowledging that Ardell has a financial interest in posting here qualifies as finger-pointing?

    You sound a little bit over sensitive. Maybe the comment about balls cooling off was a tell?

    I’m thinking there’s an ointment for whatever is bothering you.

  97. 1847
    sfrz says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1810 – +1.
    Glenda still posting on here, long after the thread is D.E.A.D. Administering CPR to her empty barrel, fishing pole in hand, there may be a couple she can snag. Somebody’s gotta make those payments on the beemer.
    Here’s a hint. Sell your own house and keep your money in your pocket. Keep the RealtHorz out of the picture.

  98. 1848

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1807
    Not to Worry Ardelle

    I have trial experience as an attorney equivalent, and won the week long trial too with three attorney legal experts against me….IMO you’ve broken no law [it probably depends on the judge though, there’s really weird judges out there now BTW]. This casual low attendance blog is a professional forum and the equivalent of training. Let ’em prove otherwise. I had a weird judge that prohibited me from contacting my US Senator…even my plaintiff opponent agreed with me and thought she was nuts too…LOL

  99. 1849

    Did Anyone Watch the Golden Globes International Hollywood Circus Last Night

    Tom Hanks, the most skilled/experienced and highest paid actor in Hollywood now, appeared dismal and depressed…LOL

    Here’s the quote that summed up the fiasco last night:

    “…Gervais proved anything but embarrassed as he continued to call out the rich and famous on their privileged lifestyle. “If you do win an award tonight, don’t use it as a political platform to make a political speech,” he warned. “You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything, you know nothing about the real world. Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg. So, if you win, come up, accept your little award, thank your agent and your God and f*** off. OK?”…”

    Now Its Time to Fill Your Yuban Mug and Read the Brief:

    “…Seahawks rookie DK Metcalf commands the world’s attention in big, bold fashion during yesterday’s 17-9 win over Philadelphia. His power went far beyond his record-setting numbers, columnist Larry Stone writes. Fans also basked in a classic Beast Mode performance, and Jadeveon Clowney had a few things to say afterward about the “bang-bang play” that created an uproar. The test gets harder next Sunday as the Seahawks face Green Bay in a divisional playoff. (Photo: Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: The defense was great, especially the 4th qtr…and that 1st down pass completion the offense made with 1 minute to go on like 3rd down and 15 tasted like cherry pie….LOL

    “…We’re “flirting” with a chance of snow in the Seattle area this week, according to the National Weather Service, but “it’s a little too early to get excited.” The mountains are getting heavy snow, though, and that’s boosting the chances of flooding on local rivers…”

    SWE’s Take: Baton up the hatches and telework if you can if the roads get icy.

    “…For the first time in decades, Seattle has as many renters as homeowners. They could soon make up the majority of residents. As FYI Guy digs into what’s driving the trend and how it matters, you can see what’s happening around you in this neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown…”

    SWE’s Take: Where’s the normal/avg per capita pay middle income in the Seattle economy? Where’s Waldo? LOL

    “…Iranian Americans returning to the U.S. were detained for hours at the Blaine border crossing, according to Washington’s chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations. But Customs and Border Protection says that’s not true. State politicians are scrutinizing what happened Saturday night as the travelers were coming back from a concert…”

    SWE’s take: A country like Iran harvests American killer terrorist Generals [in Iraq] and we should just shrug and not do anything security-wise at the border against it?

    “… Emotional labor is the sum of all those necessary, but unglamorous, tasks that go unrecognized. Women do more than twice as much of it as men, which leads to burnout. Learn how to avoid doing all the emotional labor at work….”

    SWE’s Take: All male workers are lazy and useless…get rid of them….LOL

    “…Jay Inslee’s proposal to fund homeless shelters and services will help, belatedly. But legislators should find ways to fund it with the regular budget and not use the rainy-day fund as Inslee suggests, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. ..”

    SWE’s Take: Jay Inslee knew about homelessness many years ago and now he wants to raise taxes or rob emergency funds for it?

    Good News: Americans are just plain bored with the impeachment hoax, when they already know its a “slamdunk” waste of money and time…they know the ending already….LOL

  100. 1850
  101. 1851
    Whatsmyname says:

    MLS numbers are in. SFR new listings are up 10% and total listings are down 41%. But that doesn’t tell story. New listings are up by a count of 80; total listings are down by 1,174. Could this be a year where the move ups don’t list because they can’t be sure of finding a replacement?

  102. 1852
    Erik says:

    RE: Jeff @ 1825
    -Sure thing Jeff, demand is fleeting. Fleeting demand still increases demand though.

    -I wish we could quantify the number of people looking to buy, as that seems like actual demand. Unfortunately, we don’t get that information that I’m aware of. I look at pending sales, days on market, and absorption rate to rate demand.

    Right now is low supply and high demand in Seattle. (Low supply/high demand) = higher prices.

  103. 1853
    uwp says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1851:

    MLS numbers are in. SFR new listings are up 10% and total listings are down 41%. But that doesn’t tell story. New listings are up by a count of 80; total listings are down by 1,174. Could this be a year where the move ups don’t list because they can’t be sure of finding a replacement?

    Months of inventory basically cut in half YOY, 1.67 to 0.89. We’ll see how January/February shake out.

    Thoughts from the ground Ardell? You have listings coming soon, or buyers?

  104. 1854

    Fill Up Your Mugs With Yuban, I Already Guzzled Mine, and Read the Brief:

    “…Puget Sound housing markets may soon recapture their 2017 hotness, brokers predict. That spells bad news for affordability as the supply of available homes shrinks. See what’s happening in your area and what the future may hold….”

    SWE’s Take: And Chicken Little was right about the sky falling…the key is the words “may” in the article….we’ll know more after 2021 IMO.

    “…The U.S. must brace for Iran to launch bold cyberattacks designed to cause major financial damage or threaten American lives as retaliation for the killing of one of its top generals, cybersecurity experts say. The Pentagon is sending 2,500 more Marines to the Middle East, with one official saying the U.S. anticipates a major attack of some kind within the next day or two. More:…”

    SWE’s take: Not to worry the cyber attacks “may” be MSFT installed S/W back-doors allowing the Iranian hackers’ “porous security” in [right on through the useless modem firewalls and virus S/W]? The key word is “may”….LOL…not to worry, the current virus protections with weekly patches “may” be useless anyway….LOL…hey the virus that attacked my computer last Summer, went right through Century LInk’s firewalls and McAfee anti-virus S/W anyway. LOL

    “…The Boeing 737 MAX’s return to service may take even longer after new snags with the jet. Boeing yesterday laid out how it will redeploy thousands of workers as it prepares to shut down the 737 MAX production line in Renton until the plane can fly again. Meanwhile, Boeing’s training pilots in the Seattle area are trying to cut ties with the union that represents them…”

    SWE’s Take: Boeing workers better grab up them Jack in the Box burger flipper pay to augment their 8 months of unemployment before the help wanted signs are tore down because of the avalanche of jobless folks lacking money for their rent and mortgage nooses…..I hope they have more room for homeless tents before that “may” happen.

    “… Washington offers more baccalaureate options at community and technical colleges than any other state in the U.S. Online options help nontraditional students complete a degree in two years that leads directly to local jobs….”

    SWE’s take: What kind of jobs and what pay? Burger flipping jobs?

    “…We’re already a decade behind on addressing Seattle’s growth, according to new City Councilmember Dan Strauss. It’s among eight significant things that members said as the council opened its new chapter yesterday…”

    SWE’s take: Growth is the single problem facing Seattle, its the root cause of all standard of living deterioration and “growing” homelessness in Seattle. Our County Council is 10 years behind their job.

    “…”Our world has gotten really small.” Travel can be a minefield for families of children with cognitive disabilities or developmental disorders. Seattle-area parents who have taken successful trips share their tactics for finding fun and relaxation…”

    SWE’s take: Traveling with severely disabled folks is not only hard, its almost impossible without an expensive care giver present, paid to assist. Ask me.

    “…Threatening to destroy Iranian cultural sites and flout laws of armed conflict, as President Donald Trump did repeatedly in recent days, severely undermines whatever moral authority the U.S. had to kill General Qassem Soleimani, writes The Seattle Times editorial board….”

    SWE’s Take: Where did they drag this fake news from, Mother Goose Fairy Tales??? LOL…destroying Iranian cultural sites? Does that include McDonalds? LOL

    Good News: Erik’s still bull on RE investing…hey, I’m sure he has plenty of clients, they thrive in good and bad economic conditions, check out foreclosures during good times, if you don’t believe Erik. Most of making money is good detective work with a plan, the timing is secondary anyway.

  105. 1855
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1842

    >>The assumed name is law.

    You are misinterpreting the law AGAIN. What the law means is that you cannot HIDE your person and your personal real estate broker or sales license behind what is known in legalese as a “ficititous business name”. That is, you cannot call yourself “green moss realty LLC” and have “green moss realty LLC” be entity operating as the broker or sales agent on a contract. That’s what the law means. The law does not mean you cannot have an anonymous web account and express opinions about the property market.

    Taking a step back: Do not trust agents interpretation of laws. They will generally tell you anything from self-serving misinterpretations to outright lies.

  106. 1856
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justme @ 1855

    Incorrect. Long before that the no fictitious names was about people being able to find you by your licensed name. It’s a very long standing issue. How the internet may change things is up to interpretation. But hiding behind a fictitious name is generally reserved for people who want to hide who they really are. I’ve never felt the need to do that. I stand by what I say.

    How does one decide that they are not going to put their real name? Why do people do that? Why do you do that?

  107. 1857
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1856

    That was quite the non-sequiteur response, Ardell.

  108. 1858
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1854
    Yep, I’m just waiting to refinance my remodel so I can buy more.

  109. 1859
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 1853

    The KC numbers for December are already in.

    Inventory down by a whopping 41.37% to 1664 (despite new listings rising by 10% from 800 to 880.)
    Pendings up 8.67% from 1372 to 1491
    Closed sales up 10.33% from 1704 to 1880
    Prices are up 5.63% from $639,000 to $675,000
    Months of inventory cut by half, as noted by UWP, from 1.67 to 0.89

    All of the agents I have spoken to said it was the most unusual holiday season they had ever seen. Stuff that had been sitting for months selling– and selling well. Buyers who had gone quiet showing up with renewed determination to stop renting and buy.

    The numbers for January are likely to be quite similar to December. Inventory probably up a bit. Not out of the question that it might be the same or a tad lower. Pendings, Sales and Prices should all be up.

    This is a market that is finally waking up to the fact that there is not very much to buy and so of course, everybody will want to buy.

    I have said over and over again that humans (especially Americans, especially West Coasters) think of themselves as independent and autonomous. But in point of fact, we are often part of a herd, a flock or a school.

    As soon as the market began to soften at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2018, everyone pulled back from buying out of fear of “catching a falling knife.” Interest rates sent us the initiating signal but it was really buyer fear that over-corrected the market. If you told people it might be a good idea to buy when others are selling, inventory is plentiful and leverage is on your side, you were labelled a bubble monger with your own interests to protect. If you said that technically it was still a seller’s market, people dismissed you as absurd. Now, of course, those same people are probably getting ready to run out to buy because fewer are selling and there is not much inventory.

    Buyers do not want to buy in a buyer’s market . It takes real guts. Most buyers will not act until it is clear that the blip in inventory is past and they are well into a seller’s market. That is what we will see this spring.

  110. 1860

    RE: uwp @ 1853

    I think the best strategy to determine that would be to track the first 100 listings or so in 2020 and see if they land nearby and what they sell vs what they buy. My personal experience is too small. There did seem to be more people buying who were also selling last year, but many were move somewhere else vs move up.

    People too far out moving closer in. People growing out of their homes moving laterally to a larger house in a less expensive area. Not necessarily pure “move up” in price by a great degree.

    The traditional way to do that was to buy contingent on the sale and I did see more of that in the latter part of 2019.

    Once someone buys, it is not as easy to track back where they came from. I just had an idea that might work. The name of a seller stays in a searchable field in the mls. So I could track in hindsight, though a bit more difficult.

    When someone asks me for stats, it generally takes me very little time to assist them with data. The few times I have gone the extra mile to track something that is very difficult to do, such as this move up buyer query, the person I do it for complains, making those hours of work all for nothing. So I am less inclined to do that than I used to be.

    When I tracked down the true % increase of new construction and the reason why it appeared that prices were going down when they were in fact going up, that effort was not appreciated. Some people want to be right whether they are or not, and don’t appreciate having the real information. That’s when they start accusing people of lying. Apparently data is only useful when it incorrectly supports what they are trying to sell to the general public.

  111. 1861
    kenmorem says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1859:

    RE: uwp @ 1853

    The KC numbers for December are already in.

    Inventory down by a whopping 41.37% to 1664 (despite new listings rising by 10% from 800 to 880.)
    Pendings up 8.67% from 1372 to 1491
    Closed sales up 10.33% from 1704 to 1880
    Prices are up 5.63% from $639,000 to $675,000
    Months of inventory cut by half, as noted by UWP, from 1.67 to 0.89

    All of the agents I have spoken to said it was the most unusual holiday season they had ever seen. Stuff that had been sitting for months selling– and selling well. Buyers who had gone quiet showing up with renewed determination to stop renting and buy.

    The numbers for January are likely to be quite similar to December. Inventory probably up a bit. Not out of the question that it might be the same or a tad lower. Pendings, Sales and Prices should all be up.

    This is a market that is finally waking up to the fact that there is not very much to buy and so of course, everybody will want to buy.

    I have said over and over again that humans (especially Americans, especially West Coasters) think of themselves as independent and autonomous. But in point of fact, we are often part of a herd, a flock or a school.

    As soon as the market began to soften at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2018, everyone pulled back from buying out of fear of “catching a falling knife.” Interest rates sent us the initiating signal but it was really buyer fear that over-corrected the market. If you told people it might be a good idea to buy when others are selling, inventory is plentiful and leverage is on your side, you were labelled a bubble monger with your own interests to protect. If you said that technically it was still a seller’s market, people dismissed you as absurd. Now, of course, those same people are probably getting ready to run out to buy because fewer are selling and there is not much inventory.

    Buyers do not want to buy in a buyer’s market . It takes real guts. Most buyers will not act until it is clear that the blip in inventory is past and they are well into a seller’s market. That is what we will see this spring.

    justme? justme?
    oh.
    justgone

  112. 1862
    kenmorem says:

    oh wait, i see justme (aka justbubble) is back to promoting the agenda on ST:

    5 minutes ago
    The inventory propaganda is back!! If enough people fall for the propaganda, prices will go up, as long as more debt is available. If people reject the propaganda, prices will go down, as they have since May 2018 even in Seattle Metro area.

    In Silicon Valley, buyers have been on strike since June 2018, as has been widely reported. Prices are down. When will Seattleites get smart and just say no?

  113. 1863
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1859
    I knew Sfrz, Justme, and the open house guy were wrong, so I kept buying. My only regret is buying a remodel that is taking so long because I wanted to buy more before prices skyrocket.

    The lesson I learned is to buy places I can fix and rent out more quickly so I can buy more while deals are good.

  114. 1864
    Matt P says:

    I bought a 3/2.5 townhouse in May. Redfin says I overpaid at the time although that’s because they retroactively adjust their entire tracking curve each time they get more data to make it seem like they got it right in the first place. I’ve been tracking their estimates in a spreadsheet and they adjusted down the estimate from May by about $25k so far. Current estimate has it right at what I paid.

    Anyway, I think I got a good deal based on location, views, and other features the estimates don’t account for and bought at a time when prices were falling but seem to have leveled out. Rent vs buy made buy a no brainer even though my mortgage is quite a bit higher than my rent. The difference goes to principal and the amount going to interest is less than what would go to rent for a similar unit. After a few years, the curve will bend even further so that more goes to principal vs what would from renting since rents will go up faster than property taxes.

    Even a 1% increase in price means a decent profit for me. Most people just don’t know how to do the math right when considering rent vs buy and sit scared to buy then complain whem the market passes them by.

  115. 1865
    Justme says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1862

    Thanks for saving me the cut/paste, Ken. You are a doll. Oh, here it is again:

    justbubble
    5 minutes ago
    The inventory propaganda is back!! If enough people fall for the propaganda, prices will go up, as long as more debt is available. If people reject the propaganda, prices will go down, as they have since May 2018 even in Seattle Metro area.

    In Silicon Valley, buyers have been on strike since June 2018, as has been widely reported. Prices are down. When will Seattleites get smart and just say no?

  116. 1866
    N says:

    So new listings are actually rising but we are back to outsized buyer demand, likely in large part due to rates dropping ~1% vs. a year ago. The stock market being up 25% in the past year probably didn’t hurt either, remember a year ago we had just had a sudden drop in the market in Q4 wiping out the gains for the year.

  117. 1867
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1863 – Remember leverage works both ways. In the last housing crash, many people like you had not just one but multiple short sales! Oh I forgot you were one of them…

  118. 1868
    Juststoppedby says:

    Hmmm…

    I don’t normally get in the weeds on the stuff, but there are a few things that seem pretty interesting here.

    Just calling out the following more than drawing hard conclusions:

    1) Listings are down 41.3%

    2) Sales are up about 10.3%

    3) Prices are up 5.6%

    If this were a straight supply and demand and/or a buyer urgency issue, it seems like prices would’ve gone up more than this.

    And if roughly the same # of buyers are there, where did the sellers go?

    Interesting…

  119. 1869

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1859

    Going back to my numbers from 12/31 that I assumed might be the lowest point of inventory in comment #1742. Trying to do a week to week while I can.

    Total was 2,388 on 12/31
    Today it is 2,251

    Condos were 632
    Today they are 576

    Residential was 1,756
    Today 1,675

    No need to do the full breakdown that I did on 12/31 since the numbers aren’t moving up but down. When they start moving up I’ll want to see which segments are doing that.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  120. 1870
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1867
    I didn’t understand the market back then. I didn’t even know how to do analysis to figure out where the market is headed. Kinda like you are now, ignorant.

    I get it now and I’m more confident in my analysis.

  121. 1871
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1864 – You could have made the same comment/argument in 2006 lol. Your assumption that rent will be higher in “a few years” is without basis. Average rent in Seattle was $2,013 in October 2015. It is now $2,024!

    “Rent vs buy made buy a no brainer” Huh? Any investor would demand – show me the money!

    https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-seattle-rent-trends/

  122. 1872
    Deerhawke says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1868:

    Hmmm…

    I don’t normally get in the weeds on the stuff, but there are a few things that seem pretty interesting here.

    Just calling out the following more than drawing hard conclusions:

    1) Listings are down 41.3%

    2) Sales are up about 10.3%

    3) Prices are up 5.6%

    If this were a straight supply and demand and/or a buyer urgency issue, it seems like prices would’ve gone up more than this.

    And if roughly the same # of buyers are there, where did the sellers go?

    Interesting…

    There is usually a substantial lag effect on prices. Remember that the houses that recorded in December were pending 30-60 days before.

    Some sellers are still there, but are just staying out of the market at this time. They are betting that the market will rise and so are holding out.

  123. 1873
    Eastsider says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1868:

    1) Listings are down 41.3%

    I am sure most of them will come back. Many listings probably expired.

    Here is what Ardell wrote on 12/31 –

    Not a good time to verify inventory levels and then read those numbers into “market conditions”, since this is the time of year when many sellers are off market for the holidays.

  124. 1874
    Eastsider says:

    Someone at St Louis Fed thinks we are heading into a recession this year.

    Recession Signals: Housing Indicators Remain Consistent With a Broader Slowdown in 2020
    https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/housing-market-perspectives/2019/recession-signals-housing-indicators-broader-slowdown?utm_campaign=897a0b37-8e9c-43a7-b208-b3acd049c2aa

  125. 1875
    Eastsider says:

    If we enter a recession, The Tim has written the following article –

    How Hard Will the Next Recession Hit the Housing Market
    https://www.redfin.com/blog/next-recession-housing-market/

  126. 1876
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1875
    RE: Eastsider @ 1874
    RE: Eastsider @ 1873

    Well known quotes from past Eastsider commentary:

    “Oh….I might have known.”

    “The sky has finally fallen. Always knew it would.”

    “If it is a good morning, which I doubt.”

    “Wish I could say yes, but I can’t.”

    “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

    I have decided not to try to even respond to Eeyore, er, Eastsider. He will simply never be a Tigger.

  127. 1877
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1876
    RE: Eastsider @ 1873 – Don’t like what Ardell wrote?
    RE: Eastsider @ 1874 – Don’t like the Fed paper?
    RE: Eastsider @ 1875 – Don’t like The Tim?

    Did they trigger you? Don’t blame the messenger!

  128. 1878
    Voight-kampff says:

    My family is very financially and politically diverse, from conservative to liberal, to rich to being on government assistance. After speaking and drinking with many of these different family members over the holidays (good times!),
    I remembered that people rarely change their ways. People rarely think or say,
    “You know, I never looked at it that way, I’ll have to adjust my thinking on that”
    Which is why I believe very few people here on seattle bubble will change their view of the market, even with data right in front of them. For all of the years of comments, few use the data and discussion to inform and change their tact, or change their perception in any meaningful way. Whether a bear, or bull, most use this site to confirm what they already think. The irony is that we’re all looking at the same data.
    I still enjoy visiting here, I’ve learned a lot… I think?

  129. 1879
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1878 – The difference here is some people here have vested interest in RE.

  130. 1880
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1878
    While I tend to agree, it is funny you should say that…

    I recently made the decision to turn a very strongly held belief on its head and look at it through a totally different lens.

    It’s been a great decision on a number of levels, and I don’t think I would have been able to do it without some of the tools I picked up from this book and another, companion book:

    https://www.amazon.com/Meditations-Emperors-Guide-Mastery/dp/1548281301/ref=mp_s_a_1_5?keywords=aurelius+meditations&qid=1578458538&sprefix=aureliu&sr=8-5

    It’s worth checking out. I think there’s some excellent advice and, if nothing else, it’s a really cool historical perspective about a great Roman emperor.

  131. 1881
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1879 – Anyone who is considering selling, considering buying, or considering holding tight to take action at another time has an economic interest in the real estate market. Whether it’s “vested” is an irrelevancy.

    Voight-kampff, very good post.

  132. 1882
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1878
    Great post as usual. Ignore Eastsider, it’s apparent he knows nothing.

    I was actually going to petition that he be banned from this site for low quality ignorant comments. He’s wasting our time.

  133. 1883
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1879

    Including yourself….agree?

    You have a vested interest in hoping that prices go down.

    I think people here would give you more credit if you were honest with your situation. Same with justme.

  134. 1884
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1880

    Sounds interesting , Just ordered it, thanks!

  135. 1885
    Eastsider says:

    By OA @ 1883:

    You have a vested interest in hoping that prices go down.

    Huh? You must have missed what I wrote in @1775 – “The low end is rosy, no doubt.”

    That said, IMHO many of the current low tier buyers are stretched to their limits financially and a good number will default in the next recession.

  136. 1886
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 1884:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1880

    Sounds interesting , Just ordered it, thanks!

    Hope you like it!

    If you are interested, other book is actually based on teachings of Epictetus, which Aurelius used as a guide:
    https://www.amazon.com/Art-Living-Classical-Happiness-Effectiveness/dp/0061286052/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=epictetus+the+art+of+living&qid=1578498925&sprefix=epictetus+&sr=8-1

    Both are short books and can be read in bits and pieces, rather than in long essay format.

    Personally, I found them to be very complementary.

    Best regards,

    JSB

  137. 1887

    Let’s Just Change the Subject,

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-737-bound-ukraine-crashes-082653147.html

    Now Iran’s 737 heading for Ukraine [for like Russian Mafia computer hacker training?] blows up killing 176.

    The Good News: Boeing inspectors aren’t allowed in Iran now to take the blame.

  138. 1888

    Pull Up to the Bar and Get Another Shot of Yuban and Read the brief:

    “…Boeing, reversing itself, says all 737 MAX pilots will need costly flight-simulator training. That adds a big logistical hurdle before the grounded jet can resume commercial flights: There are only 34 full-motion MAX simulators in the world, and tens of thousands of pilots who will need time on one…”

    SWE’s Take: Now the Boeing “unpaid” furlough pink slips can be handed out with less guilt.

    “… A landslide has halted Amtrak service south of Tacoma. The slide is blocking the tracks between Tacoma and Lacey. Trains between Seattle and Portland won’t resume until tomorrow, an Oregon TV station reports…”

    SWE’s take: There were huge sinkholes in major roads in the Seattle Area too. We need more trees and better drainage in place to prevent this.

    “…A Seattle Pacific University student “had no warning” when a tower crane plunged into the Uber she was riding in and killed her in April. Family members of Sarah Wong, 19, and former city planning official Alan Justad, 71, are suing five companies over their deaths in a South Lake Union tragedy that state regulators called “totally avoidable.”…”

    SWE’s take: Safety engineering is becoming a lost art now?

    Good News: Stocks shrug off Iran’s missile barrage like pesky flies…its up today.

  139. 1889

    Even Young Minors can Get Their First $1M and Buy RE in Seattle Now

    Who needs a job? Just wear a red MAGA HAT and be a minor, then wait for the CNN antifa to ridicule you for “Freedom of Speech” with chanting and drums on live TV…its a slam dunk trial win for BIG BUCKS too? Who would know?

    https://www.fox19.com/2020/01/07/cnn-settles-lawsuit-with-nick-sandmann/

  140. 1890
    Deerhawke says:

    Ardell I am wondering if you know about this MLS practice of clearing out inventory at the end of the year.

    As I mentioned in a previous post, there was a sudden 90 unit drop at the end of the year. Does somebody at the organization just go through and cull the deadwood that has been sitting without activity? And what stops the agent from immediately re-listing?

    Perhaps the larger question here is understanding how much of the active inventory is actually only nominally active. Your thoughts?

  141. 1891
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1879
    The opposite is also true. People don’t own RE and talking down RE. I wish good luck for both side.

  142. 1892
    Juststoppedby says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 1891:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1879
    The opposite is also true. People don’t own RE and talking down RE. I wish good luck for both side.

    This may be true in some instances, but keep in mind that people who are in the industry have a much greater capacity to misrepresent/shade the facts than somebody who is on the outside.

  143. 1893
    Eastsider says:

    RE: BacktoBasics @ 1891 – I am not in the market to buy or sell today. I have been bullish, neutral, and bearish in the last decade. I doubt you will find any bearish comment from me from 2013 for example.

  144. 1894
    Eastsider says:

    Here is what I wrote in 2014. I think we have made a lot of “progress” towards becoming the next SF since then.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2014/02/27/undervalued-to-overvalued-in-less-than-a-year/

    By Eastsider @ 8:

    I assume San Francisco and New York have been “overvalued” for decades, even through the Great Recession. Since Seattle is becoming more like San Franciso, this may be the new normal!

  145. 1895
    Eastsider says:

    Here is another comment from 2015. Does it look like I am always “talking down” on RE? Unfortunately, I can’t recommend buying RE at today’s prices. We shall see if I am right in 3-5 years.

    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2015/10/05/nwmls-historic-2015-sellers-market-drags-on/

    By Eastsider @ 59:

    Just a related comment –

    We are not in a normal housing market. I bet the current SFH monthly closing numbers pale in comparison to those in the early 2000’s. It is like the massive trading volume in NYSE today, except that 80% (?) of the trades are HFTs. The market is narrow and fragile and prices can move in either directions in short notice. People who bought 5 years ago have gains that normally take 30 years to accomplish. So stop speculating where the prices will be tomorrow. Buy what you can afford and settle down.

  146. 1896
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1895
    Anyone that would listen to your recommendations is a fool. You don’t understand how to forecast and it’s very obvious.

    I ask you save us all the frustration and quit trying until you learn about real estate.

    You aren’t someone people look up to as your words would indicate. I think you have a very low understanding of the market and I would never listen to anything you wrote because your past comments have been so incorrect.

  147. 1897
  148. 1898
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: Erik @ 1896

    LOL Erik, you have the online temperament of a chihuahua.

    It’s crazy how often you’re in either fawning/ adulation mode or full on attack mode. :-)

  149. 1899
    BacktoBasics says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1893
    So why you are so interest in Seattle housing price? I am not a smoker, I really don’t care a pack Marlboro price.

  150. 1900
    whatsmyname says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1892:

    This may be true in some instances, but keep in mind that people who are in the industry have a much greater capacity to misrepresent/shade the facts than somebody who is on the outside.

    This may be true in some instances, but keep in mind that people with no RE experience have a much greater capacity to misinterpret/be blindly ignorant of the facts than somebody with experience.

  151. 1901

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1890

    Each listing is an owner. “The mls” can’t take an owner’s home off the market. “The mls” doesn’t have a practice of clearing anything out at year end. It doesn’t have that kind of control over seller’s decisions to be on or off market.

    In the old days several years ago it was common for the listing sequence to begin anew on Jan 1 and people wanted a new year’s listing number. But we haven’t had that system for a very long time. Still, each seller would have to sign for it to come down and sign again for it to go back up. “The mls” can’t do that. Individual sellers can sign for their agents to do that.

    BUT, that said, last day of the year is a common expiration date. 94 houses expired on that day. 56 expired end of September. Last day of any month is a common expiration date and last day of the year even more so. But not double that of September so…not a huge deal I’d say.

    The only time the mls would be behind a “purge” would be if agents left things on Pending and forgot to put them as sold when they closed. Even then they would reach out to the agent or Brokerage. They cannot change a status on their own. They are just staff people with no direct contact to sellers of homes to change a status of an owner’s house unless they receive a form signed by the owner and the brokerage/agent.

    I don’t think only nominally active is an issue because there are at least as many if not more that are 30 listings showing as 1 listing via a pre-sale listing. In fact many listings on market for over 6 months are a reasonable facsimile for a whole development of houses and say “2 houses left” on that one stale listing. So the number of Active listings is not inflated by the “nominally active”. Quite the reverse most of the time with 30 new houses showing as 1 listing. Truly Active listings, if you count presales, is clearly much higher and not lower than what you are counting as Active. At best they would balance each other out with not showing as a separate listing cancelling out every nominally active one.

    I can look at that more closely, but 90 houses expiring at the end of the year is not an oddity given it’s not even double that of September month end. Month end is just a common expiration date and year end even more so.

    (Required Disclosure – Stats in this comment are hand calculated by ARDELL in Real Time and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  152. 1902
    Erik says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1897
    This site is to help readers. Eastsider, Kenmoron, Sfrz, Justme, talk like they understand when they don’t. They are making this site less valuable and they need to be stopped.

  153. 1903
    Juststoppedby says:

    By whatsmyname @ 1899:

    …keep in mind that people with no RE experience have a much greater capacity to misinterpret/be blindly ignorant of the facts than somebody with experience.

    Which is exactly why it’s so offensive when people in the business use their knowledge to take advantage of others and to push false narratives.

  154. 1904
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1902

    It is more offensive to be accused of that when you aren’t doing that.

  155. 1905
    Eastsideguy says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1864 – The way to calculate rent vs. buy is to consider the capital you locking into the house (once paid off) and compare the return on that capital in alternate investment (stocks) against the rent. Say, you have a $1 mil house. Using the 4% rule, that’s 40k of investment return. If you had the house, you would lose those $40k + the property taxes (say $10k). If your rent is less than $50k, you are better off renting.

  156. 1906
    whatsmyname says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1902:

    By whatsmyname @ 1899:

    …keep in mind that people with no RE experience have a much greater capacity to misinterpret/be blindly ignorant of the facts than somebody with experience.

    Which is exactly why it’s so offensive when people in the business use their knowledge to take advantage of others and to push false narratives.

    The larger number of false narratives I’m seeing are coming from the place of ignorance based conspiracy theories. These people cannot be either fooled or brought to knowledge; they have so thoroughly fooled themselves. It’s a perfect Dunning-Kruger world.

  157. 1907
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1893

    Do you rent or own? Just curious..

  158. 1908
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1900

    Thanks Ardell. This makes a great deal of sense. I think I know a fair amount about real estate but would never claim to be knowledgeable about the MLS or its policies.

  159. 1909
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1904

    I had never run into the term Dunning-Kruger Effect before this. Well worth reading up on the research behind it.

    I think the Dunning-Kruger effect has been strengthened throughout our society by the internet. Nowadays everyone is an instant specialist on everything.

  160. 1910
    Eastsider says:

    By BacktoBasics @ 1898:

    So why you are so interest in Seattle housing price? I am not a smoker, I really don’t care a pack Marlboro price.

    (Cost of) Housing affects everyone. When prices are high, everyone pays for it one way or another (via rent for example.) The cost of a typical house is 2.5x of income in the country. Around here it is 6x. Nothing written here will affect prices. We are all observers. (So Erik should just chill.) Vested parties always want prices to go higher. I am just giving my 2 cents on price trends based largely on affordability. As I mentioned earlier, I was for buying as recent as 10/2015. But I’m somewhat bearish now.

  161. 1911
    Joe says:

    This landlord is trying to cash out. The house if for sale on Redfin for $1.3M, which equates to $6k/month mortgage payment (30-year fixed), and it’s also available for rent on Craigslist for $4,800 per month, which they can’t get.

    Of course, potential buyers are wondering – why would I pay $6000/mo for a home I can rent for $4800/mo or less, with no downside risk.

    I can’t blame the owner for trying to troll the peak though. It’s a smart move at this point in time.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/16708-226th-Ave-NE-98077/home/272491

  162. 1912
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1908 – Weren’t you telling us in post 1871 that rent hadn’t really increased since 2015? As a renter, surely your experience with housing costs is mostly monthly. Why do you think it is different for owners? Your affordability arguments don’t seem to add up.

  163. 1913
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1903:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1902

    It is more offensive to be accused of that when you aren’t doing that.

    Pot, meet kettle.

  164. 1914
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1910 – LOL. You agree that we have reached peak rent? Haha… there is only so much disposable income available for housing. Surprise!

  165. 1915
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1912 – I’m just wondering why your concern about non rising rents has stimulated so much time and energy from you. And kind of wondering if your rent really has not increased since 2015.

  166. 1916
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1909 – Residential RE investment is a losing proposition in this region based on P&L and regulatory costs. That said, homeownership is generally a shelter, not an investment. “P&L” is only one of many considerations. So it may make sense to ‘own’ a home than ‘invest’ in a rental property. Unlike a decade ago, when investors (vultures?) were out in force buying up foreclosed and distressed properties, today many are folding because the math no longer pencil.

  167. 1917
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1913 – I don’t generally respond to trolls. You are known to be a troll around here.

  168. 1918
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1915 – if you can’t address the issue raised, you can always engage in name calling. I understand.

    Btw, you should have followed the advice of that guy in 2015 who said it was time to stop speculating on future price decreases, find something you can afford, and settle down. I wonder why you didn’t.

  169. 1919

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1887
    I Gulped Two Mugs of Yuban Already, Get Your’s and Read the brief. The Timing of the Ukraine [NATO] Nation 737 Destruction [killing all 176 and Iran won’t turn over the flight recorder to Boeing/FAA] in Hostile Iran Suspicious?

    The “Professional” Hackers in our Ally (????) Ukraine Love Cyber-Crimes and enabled them to possibly pull 10s of thousands of Wikileak emails from Hillary’s personal home server and the DNC server too.

    “…https://russianmafiagangster.blogspot.com/2015/10/interpol-cyber-crime-from-russia-e.html…”

    “… The Russian hackers also are hiring English speakers to sound more credible and to improve communications.
    One of the reasons for the rise in cyber crime is the low rate of prosecution and punishment. For example, in Ukraine, of the 400 people arrested for Internet and bank fraud, only eight were convicted.
    The region also has a large pool of people with very advanced information technology skills. Cyber criminals “are very well prepared and very well motivated,” Sartori said, noting that some arrests involved catching hackers at universities who were on the way to take exams.
    In Russia, the lack of legitimate high-tech jobs is another cause for increased cyber crime rates.
    “In Russia and other former Soviet Union and Eastern European economies, top university graduates are reportedly paid by organized crimes up to 10 times more than from legitimate jobs,” he said.
    One hacker confessed that hacking remains one of the few good jobs left in Russia.
    Additionally, another problem contributing to cyber crime is that hacking is culturally accepted in the east. “It’s not considered a crime in the countries. It’s regarded as just another job,” Sartori said. “There is not a culture to consider these guys as criminals, as robbers, as killers. They are considered professionals as others.”…”

    SWE’s take: Sounds like the job market in Ukraine (Ally???) needs more college educated gangsters, hackers to attack America IOWs…LOL…perhaps the 737 crash was involved in spy games with Iran and Ukraine??? That whole region is a political MESS and can’t be trusted. The negative Seattle Boeing PR it causes is a knuckle punch to the Renton 737 Boeing’s Belly IMO. Boeing should have held up a vampire cross to selling Ukraine mobsters 737s??? The “Iran/Ukraine Cyber Crime” intelligence “root cause” of this situation is still up in the air, but it all smells like coordinated horse manure, and the gun is smoking too. Read Tom Clancy’s “Patriot Games” about 1988 terrorism and you’ll get paranoid like SWE on this “evolving/changing/coincidental” topic.

    “…The U.S. and Iran have stepped back from the brink of war, with President Donald Trump calling for diplomacy and economic sanctions instead of force. But analysts are wary. Iran has some of the most potent weapons in the world, along with teams of hackers and allied militant groups with as many as 250,000 fighters. Meanwhile, the U.S. House will vote today on limiting Trump’s ability to take military action against Iran. Check back for updates…”

    SWE’s take: Or the Iran missiles are “junk” [fail to explode] and have no +/- 1 mile aim? The ones lobbed at Israel were generally duds and misses too…the country is broke and relies on “decades” old Soviet Union obsolete junk for their army?

    “…President Trump this morning will unveil a controversial plan that would make it much easier to lay pipelines, build mines and complete highway projects, according to people familiar with the proposal. It would exempt projects without significant federal funding from environmental reviews, and may also make it harder to include climate impacts in any analysis…”

    SWE’s Take: OK, you layoff all the current energy workers with higher pay for energy independence, when do the lower wage Climate Change replacement jobs arrive? 2200? LOL Never?

    “…Where do Seattle’s chefs and other food pros like to eat? The JAKE supper club consists of four ambitious friends who roam around in search of the best eats several nights a week after work. Here’s what they’ve discovered, plus one of our finds: a sunny Columbia City spot where you can wolf down rich gumbo and belly-warming oxtail stew…”

    SWE’s take: Gobbling that greasy/acidic gruel down can mean one thing, acid indigestion and obesity.

    “… Childhood-to-career programs increase computer-science education access for students in underserved communities, with the goal of growing today’s digital-native youth into the leaders of tomorrow. See how robots help kids embrace STEM…”

    SWE’s take: Chinese sex robots IOWs? LOL Toys with no AI IOWs? Hasbro could add them to the Star Wars toy line?

    “….Seattle will get city-owned buildings off fossil fuels, Mayor Jenny Durkan said yesterday as she announced a “Green New Deal” executive order. But there are a few giant exceptions…”

    Good News: The Iran conflict is more interesting than 24/7 impeachment brainwashing hoax….LOL….Hey Pelosi? When are ya gonna give the Senate the Impeachment Articles? 2022??

    SWE’s take: Maybe they’ll allow fire places in the office buildings? LOL….bring warm coats to work? Ebeneezer Scrooge would be proud of Mayor Denny?

  170. 1920
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1914:

    RE: Joe @ 1909 -…… Unlike a decade ago, when investors (vultures?) were out in force buying up foreclosed and distressed properties, today many are folding because the math no longer pencil.

    Acquisition is certainly down at these prices, but tell us more about the many investors that are folding today. What are your sources?

  171. 1921
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1918 – You must have been asleep. These are among the smartest investors in the market today…

    Blackstone cashes out on Invitation Homes
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/blackstone-cashes-out-on-invitation-homes/
    Blackstone’s bet on the single-family rental market is now complete, as it was revealed this week that Blackstone is selling off its remaining shares in Invitation Homes for more than $1.7 billion.
    In the early part of this decade, Blackstone began pouring money into distressed residential real estate, spending billions to buy up foreclosures and other distressed properties, then turning those houses into single-family rental properties.
    Blackstone’s move into single-family rentals was conducted through Invitation Homes, which the firm helped grow into one of the nation’s largest single-family rental operators.
    Blackstone eventually took Invitation Homes public in 2017, with its initial stock sale raising more than $1.5 billion.
    Then, earlier this year, Blackstone began selling off part of its investment in Invitation Homes.

  172. 1922

    RE: Eastsider @ 1919

    The Average Affordability Sales Data in America

    Is a joke for $670K average prices…when the avg home goes for $200K in America….its that simple, do the math.

  173. 1923
    Lulu says:

    By Eastsider @ 1919:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1918 – You must have been asleep. These are among the smartest investors in the market today…

    Blackstone cashes out on Invitation Homes
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/blackstone-cashes-out-on-invitation-homes/
    Blackstone’s bet on the single-family rental market is now complete, as it was revealed this week that Blackstone is selling off its remaining shares in Invitation Homes for more than $1.7 billion.
    In the early part of this decade, Blackstone began pouring money into distressed residential real estate, spending billions to buy up foreclosures and other distressed properties, then turning those houses into single-family rental properties.
    Blackstone’s move into single-family rentals was conducted through Invitation Homes, which the firm helped grow into one of the nation’s largest single-family rental operators.
    Blackstone eventually took Invitation Homes public in 2017, with its initial stock sale raising more than $1.5 billion.
    Then, earlier this year, Blackstone began selling off part of its investment in Invitation Homes.

    Some “good” news for you.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/amid-falling-inventory-brokers-predict-a-return-to-2017-hotness-in-puget-sound-housing-markets-see-whats-happening-near-you/#comments

  174. 1924
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1919 – Blackstone is not folding. And the houses are are not coming back on the market. There is no benefit for your position here, except that structurally there will continue to be lots of houses in the rental pool for you.

  175. 1925
    Eastsider says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1920

    We have reached ‘peak’ rents since 2015. We witnessed ‘peak’ prices in 2018. Rents can’t go up forever. Same for prices.

    P.s. ‘Peak’ is not permanent or fixed. It can still move higher but nothing like the early 2010s.

  176. 1926
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1921:

    Blackstone is not folding.

    I know you can do better than this.

  177. 1927
    N says:

    @Eastsider 1922 – To your point, the Seattle Times piece points out that inventory is tighter in all the surrounding counties, with King Country being the least tight of them. Not sure the validity of that, but if so that would point to people seeking lower cost areas.

  178. 1928
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1923 – Blackstone (your example) is not folding (your term), or going out of business in any way. Not sure how to make that any clearer.

    But since you are responding to me now, please help me understand why you are one of the most prolific posters here because the price of houses affects the price of renting, while at the same time, the price of renting hasn’t increased since 2015. The cognitive dissonance must be killing you.

  179. 1929
    Any says:

    By Joe @ 1909:

    Of course, potential buyers are wondering – why would I pay $6000/mo for a home I can rent for $4800/mo or less, with no downside risk.

    I can’t blame the owner for trying to troll the peak though. It’s a smart move at this point in time.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/16708-226th-Ave-NE-98077/home/272491

    One could justify paying the extra for a few reasons-

    1. You can afford it (although that particular house seems a bit overpriced).
    2. You don’t think prices are going to drop significantly.
    3. You’re paying more but part of your payments are going to equity. With rent your payments are 100% going down the toilet.
    4. You’re paying more (for now) but the tax deductions at the start can help to bridge the gap some.
    5. Anybody looking to buy a house that large probably has a family. Peace of mind for getting settled in and not having to worry about being forced to move is a big plus, no ?
    6. How much would a house like that be renting for in 10 years ?

  180. 1930
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1925 – As compared to one of the most prolific trolls here? Have a nice day!

  181. 1931
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1927 – No response on the real estate substance again. Your inability to answer doesn’t make me a troll. But it does make you something.

  182. 1932
    Bumble says:

    By Eastsider @ 1908:

    (Cost of) Housing affects everyone. When prices are high, everyone pays for it one way or another (via rent for example.) The cost of a typical house is 2.5x of income in the country. Around here it is 6x. Nothing written here will affect prices. We are all observers. (So Erik should just chill.) Vested parties always want prices to go higher. I am just giving my 2 cents on price trends based largely on affordability. As I mentioned earlier, I was for buying as recent as 10/2015. But I’m somewhat bearish now.

    Our income-to-price ratio in Seattle is definitely a lot higher than the national average. Homes are too damn expensive.

    But i’d like to see what the ratio is between average Seattle home prices and the average household income of homebuyers (not average household income of Seattle residents).

    Our rate of homeownership is low in Seattle. Only about half of us can own. Supply is limited. So you kind of need to be in the top half of earners to compete.

    It seems like we are teetering on the brink of a housing crisis if the “average” household is paying 6x annual income for housing, but they aren’t. The people who are actually buying homes may be more like 2x- 4x. We just bought our first primary residence last August at 2.3x.

    So it may be problematic to compare Seattle 1:1 to places where homeownership rates are higher and therefore the average prices are somewhat closer to what the 50th percentile can afford.

  183. 1933
    Justme says:

    RE: Joe @ 1909

    Awesome investigation of that house in Woodinville. Looks to me like they ought to do a 20% price reduction just for starters. More if they wait.

    What kind of fool buys a boonies-palace like that and expect it to be a high-priced rental?

  184. 1934
    Beano says:

    By Eastsider @ 1759:

    Latest updates from Redfin Data Center –

    Seattle Metro October SFR Median Sale Price YoY Change –
    Existing homes – up 4.4%
    New Construction – down 14.4%

    New construction is collapsing at an accelerated pace. Beware of any contrary comment from vested parties here. SFR builders are seriously hurting. Expect some to go under.

    SFR New construction YoY median sale price change since March 2019 –
    3/19 0.0%
    4/19 -2.7%
    5/19 -5.9%
    6/19 -6.1%
    7/19 -7.7%
    8/19 -10.3%
    9/19 -12.9%
    10/19 -14.4%

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

    Land.

    Land still matters, it always matters.

    These new homes are being located on postage stamp sized lots. Privacy? Apartments share walls, but they don’t usually share windows.

    That said, there is an abundance of these and they will serve to put a cap on home prices in some areas.

    Once these new properties are digested by the market – a year or two – the price premium for a real lot with a yard, actual privacy, will be even more distinct.

  185. 1935
    Beano says:

    By Joe @ 1909:

    This landlord is trying to cash out. The house if for sale on Redfin for $1.3M, which equates to $6k/month mortgage payment (30-year fixed), and it’s also available for rent on Craigslist for $4,800 per month, which they can’t get.

    Of course, potential buyers are wondering – why would I pay $6000/mo for a home I can rent for $4800/mo or less, with no downside risk.

    I can’t blame the owner for trying to troll the peak though. It’s a smart move at this point in time.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/16708-226th-Ave-NE-98077/home/272491

    Very interesting listing.

    I do think this is the exact kind of property that data has shown to be very soft since mid 2018. This segment of the market remains soft.

  186. 1936

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1906

    Just think of it this way. If you had a house for sale in the mls, do you think they could pull it off market without your instruction to do so? Do you think they could determine you were only marginally “active”. :)

  187. 1937
    Erik says:

    This site is about real estate sales people selling their service to people that have no idea what is going on. The people selling won’t tell them that because they want their money.

    Either way, this is no longer a relevant site with knowledgeable people, this site is bait and switch for sales people. Agents stroke the potential clients while potential clients ramble on and sellers don’t set them straight. I’m out! Good luck. I’ll come back when this doesn’t feel like such a sales scam.

  188. 1938
    OA says:

    By OA @ 1905:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1893

    Do you rent or own? Just curious..

    I see that you didn’t reply to my question, and I know you didn’t reply on purpose.

    I would suggest that you telling us whether you rent or own would actually give you more credibility in this forum, it would make you somewhat more relatable as well. You’re a prolific poster here.

    The thing is we all have biases here, but with other frequent posters, let’s say Erik for example, yeah he has a heavy bullish bias but he’s upfront with his situation (has many rentals and wants to see them all grow in value).

    What you’re trying to do is make yourself seem neutral (like you have no skin in the game) but you’re commentary is extremely bearish consistently, while we absolutely know NOTHING about you and your situation. In my experience (with friends, family, colleagues) that behavior is consistent with people that are renting and are angry about prices. And there’s nothing wrong with that as I understand the frustration. And I’ve had really good conversations with them where both sides challenge each others assumptions and predictions.

    The most neutral (about local real estate) people I personally know are the ones that own their home, yet they’re consistently looking at the market for more buying opportunities to rent out or flip. Yes, it’s great that their primary residence house is increasing in value but they also don’t mind seeing prices drop so they could pick up more property(ies) for less. And for these neutral types, I’ve yet to meet someone that as bearish as you, and they’re also not as bullish as some people here.

    Again, just my 2 cents, but I think people here would give you some slack if you were just honest. Your bias is obvious. I think you make really good points and seems like you have been studying the market for some time now. I hope you find what you’re looking for.

  189. 1939
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1935 – ‘Credibility’ is overrated. Otherwise, you would be making a killing in the stock market with a lot less effort!

  190. 1940
    Lulu says:

    RE: OA @ 1935
    Of course renting. talking down RE so he/she could buy on cheap.

  191. 1941
    kenmorem says:

    By Erik @ 1901:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1897
    This site is to help readers. Eastsider, Kenmoron, Sfrz, Justme, talk like they understand when they don’t. They are making this site less valuable and they need to be stopped.

    poor erik.
    triggered so easily.
    i pointed out to him that my NW and RE assets were greater than his. dismissive.
    i pointed out that china isn’t paying tariffs; we pay them. he denied.
    point out other super easy to prove facts that he lies about. starts name calling.
    and he’s a father. what a role model.

  192. 1942
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1929 – You are probably correct that most recent homebuyers are not paying 6x their income for a home. I assume the ratio is under 4x. That means that a majority of residents will never afford a home here. Many existing homeowners also don’t have the means to afford their current homes at today’s prices. That says a lot about the housing market here (and in Vancouver.) The housing market traditionally is primarily for shelters. Today we have too many ‘investors’ and the market has taken on characteristics of a stock market. Price swing will become more volatile and correlate less with income.

  193. 1943
    David says:

    By Bumble @ 1929:

    By Eastsider @ 1908:

    It seems like we are teetering on the brink of a housing crisis if the “average” household is paying 6x annual income for housing, but they aren’t. The people who are actually buying homes may be more like 2x- 4x. We just bought our first primary residence last August at 2.3x.

    People should buy property. Here’s why.

    The Fed is pumping DAILY $Billions in cash into the system. WHY?

    The Fed is pushing rates down and inflating the markets to halve AT LEAST the real value of the national debt. This means cash will count in a recession but otherwise, real assets will hold their value in line with inflation at a minimum – even if it takes a while for the assets to catch up.

  194. 1944
    Matt P says:

    I bought a townhouse at 3.5x household income. If you look at the latest household income figures for Seattle, there are a ton of people who can afford houses in 2-4x range and it’s growing daily. Households making over $200k combined is nearly 20% and growing. That’s a lot of people.

    And people in the higher brackets, $150k+ can afford to go past 4x and beyond because they have much more disposable income than others. Most other expenses they have cap at some point – food, cars, etc – so that they have a lot more leftover for housing – it doesn’t scale linearly.

  195. 1945
    Brian says:

    You guys are forgetting about historically-low mortgage rates when talking about price-to-income ratios. People can afford a lot more today for the same monthly payment.

  196. 1946
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1941

    Could you compare for us the costs (rent paid vs monthly PITI) vs the benefits (size,location, other considerations) that made you think it was a good decision to buy?

  197. 1947
    Eastsider says:

    By Brian @ 1942:

    You guys are forgetting about historically-low mortgage rates when talking about price-to-income ratios. People can afford a lot more today for the same monthly payment.

    Yes, price-to-income ratios and mortgage rates are closely related. Take a look at the chart below. You can see the ratio has increased from 2.x in 1990 to 3.x today.

    https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/home-price-income-ratios

  198. 1948
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1941 – If only 20% -30% can afford a home here, who are paying for the other 70%-80% of housing stock? Historically, US homeownership rate hovers around 60%.

  199. 1949
    OA says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1936

    I don’t understand your reply but sure…I’m starting to think both you and justme are related

  200. 1950
    OA says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1937

    It’s pretty obvious to everyone here that’s the case. I don’t think he would hurt himself here but admitting it.

  201. 1951
    Funkseoulbrotha says:

    Dude. Where’s Tim? Did he lose interest?

  202. 1952

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1831

    Food Costs Vary and Prices are Flexible

    Especially food crops that are in tariff production gluts, the costs at the grocery store go way down when that happens, but in come the federal tax dollar farm subsidies so crop land reaches maximum strain. What I don’t get is if we pay them subsidies to over-produce, why do Americans get stuck with their foreign worker H-2C farm low wage slave school costs., etc, etc….

    Seattle loves $5+/mug coffee and higher prices at specialty stores; we don’t look at prices carefully before we buy IMO. Many folks buy $3.39/gal gas, when its $2.81/gal a mile away. We just aren’t picky enough. Same with housing I assume too…LOL

    I even hear folks brag about not looking at price tags. like” Uber Rich Elite village idiots”…LOL

    A good example of this conundrum is milk prices, they vary from $2-6/gal depending on the brand; lactose free, organic and high protein milk vs. normal milk.

  203. 1953

    Seattle’s Achilles Heal RE Market

    Hates icy roads and snow, it shuts the hilly city down.

    Time to warm up your icy car and scrape the snow away, slurp down a twenty cent a mug Yuban ya brewed and read the brief:

    “…Snow is falling on some parts of the Puget Sound area this morning, following the dusting you see in this image from Lake Stevens yesterday. With a chance of “real problematic snow” in the days ahead, city officials are prepping the plows and urging residents to get ready. For starters, read up on how to prepare your house and car, and what to do if the power goes out. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times) …”

    SWE’s take: We had a roof top “SNOW” dusting yesterday and highs in the mid 30s in Kent yesterday….I reloaded my pantry and freezer with provisions yesterday….time to baton down the hatches..

    “…Boeing apologized profusely as it gave Congress more than 100 pages of internal documents yesterday that show how employees spoke of deceiving regulators and airline customers during certification of the 737 MAX, and how they fought off moves to require anything but minimal pilot training for the plane…”

    SWE’s take: So who’s right, the Boeing whistler blowers or as they called ’em, “Monkey Managers”? Some one is to blame.

    “…A man is accused of shooting at one fellow driver and flashing a gun at another on I-5 near Tukwila on Wednesday. Days earlier, a semi-truck driver was shot in Kent…”

    SWE’s take: More Seattle almost daily “inner city Detroit” type violence. It happens almost daily, its the new normal now?

    “…Iran is denying that its own missile downed a Boeing 737-800 near Tehran just hours after Iran launched missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq this week. Leaders in U.S. and Canada say it’s “highly likely” that Iran shot down the jet. More:

    A flash of light, then a frightening boom: Verified videos show the final seconds before the jet crashed….”

    SWE’s take: Iran is never a liar, that would make Trump right….LOL

    “…Seattle Sketcher found a hot indoor spot where every 20-something in Seattle seemed to be congregating. Read more about bouldering. If that isn’t your thing, perhaps monster trucks are, or the symphony — could this weekend’s events possibly be any more varied? (IIlustration: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Sounds a bit fun if that’s your thing, but it sure doesn’t compete with “free rock concerts” with good bands, that died out about 10 years ago.

    “…”Please leave the chair.” Gov. Jay Inslee made Tim Eyman a punchline yesterday after Eyman turned a Q&A into a shouting match. (Nearly a year ago, Eyman was spotted on camera wheeling a chair out of an Office Depot without paying for it.) Yesterday’s brouhaha was captured on video…”

    SWE’s take: Demonize Tim Eyman and make him a proverbial shop lifter Gov Ellis, that’s all you do is “demonize” Republicans and offer no political agenda we’d vote for, like $300 car tabs…LOL

    “..Homelessness is down in Washington state for the first time in nine years, by one federal measure, even as it’s risen in the nation as a whole. Here’s why the numbers don’t totally mirror what’s happening on the ground. …”

    SWE’s take: And the Tooth Fairy is real too…LOL

    “…In booming Seattle, for example, the HUD report shows the unsheltered population grew by 44 percent over two years to nearly 5,500.

    https://q13fox.com/2017/12/06/seattles-homeless-population-went-up-44-in-the-last-two-years/

    “…A couple returned from vacation to find their new home ransacked, windows destroyed, the kitchen faucet running and debris all over. The culprit in a spree that will cost them $15,000: a tiny little guy. More surprises:

    “Let me out!” The chilling plea prompted a call to 911. A man outside the home offered to introduce the screamer to deputies — and when he came back outside, everyone burst out laughing…”

    SWE’s Take: Landlords wake up to this unit destruction nightmare more than once a year too [dogs, subletting and vandalism, etc, etc]..its treated as a joke….LOL

    “…The noble cause of preventing foreign influence on U.S. elections should not be weaponized to silence employers and create an unfair playing field, as Seattle legislation would do if approved, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. ..”

    SWE’s take: A stupid comment, its like saying keeping the tank full causes you to run out of gas…LOL

    Good News: The low is 43 degrees tonight, its warming up for no snow :-)

  204. 1954
    Lulu says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1949
    Raw unprepared food in Seattle it 20-40% more expensive than national average. Prepared food at restaurant is much more expensive in Seattle because of rent and labor cost. Yes, RE does affect price in other area. To small business, rent take away a big chunk of their expense. Seattle people can afford expensive housing, however, they have to buy grocery and cook at home. A cup of coffee cost $3.50 at *bucks store. I can brew same delicious coffee using Kirkland *buck at 10c. 3.40 saved. If you go to your Costco, there is always a line at gas station for $0.40-0.50/gal saving. there is no lack of MB, BMW car line up for the $5 saving. So Seattle people has money but people are still find way to save. RE is expensive here, but SF and Vancouver BC RE is even more expensive.

  205. 1955
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Funkseoulbrotha @ 1948

    Good question.

    Tim we realize that this has been a thankless task. You have maintained an important public forum and data source at mainly private expense.

    But it would also be a shame to allow the site to decline into irrelevance if it is not updated periodically.

    Could you take a minute to share your plans?

  206. 1956

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1949

    My interest in the big variance in food and other basic prices is that lenders use the same ratios nationally. For the lowest home prices in our area, which are median to high prices elsewhere, the lender still assumes if they spend 33% of gross income on housing, they still have enough left to buy food and live. They don’t take into consideration that food prices in the two different places are vastly different to the point of double.

    When I first became an adult the lenders used 25% of gross income as the housing payment ratio. There was no debt ratio back then. They settled at 28% for house payment pretty quickly with a 36% total housing plus debt. For a long time 25% remained for rent and 28% for buying…as long as the debt ratio (back end) was not too large.

    When we went through double digit inflation years they increased the front end from 28% to 33% because people were getting double digit raises. But they didn’t pull back on that when raises diminished.

    I have been counseling people to do their own 28% before getting the number from a lender for 30 years, but I find myself wondering if 28% is too high given the price of food here for a family buying in the low tier with less expendable income.

    I often agree with justme and the like about their concerns. One recently said the lowest tier are soon to be in default and I see some truth there. If they let the lender dictate what % of gross income they could “afford” without regard to a real person’s budget in this area and the high cost of many things compare to the rest of the Country, are they being set up for failure? I think yes.

    It’s high time the lender % ratios were revamped, tested and changed. Too many people, especially in the lowest first time buyer price ranges, just believe whatever the lender says the “can afford”.

  207. 1957
    Steve says:

    RE: Justme @ 1930 – It appears that the owner set the rent at $4800 because that is the cost of his/her mortgage. He/She purchased it in 2017 for $1.02M, assuming 20% down, the payment including taxes and insurance is $4800ish. The house is also vacant so the owner probably needs to sale/rent ASAP.

  208. 1958
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1945 – east sider, we are becoming a renter nation. Landlords accumulate rents to buy more houses to rent out. I talked to some landlords when I was looking for an apartment in Bellevue and they all want to leave their rental houses to their children. Seattle is just a high cost area, if you are not a top-tier earner, it is a hell to live. for high tech worker, rent cost is only about 20%. There is a long way for rent to keep going up. Hopefully a recession can hit the fan and all hell break loose. But it probably will be next year. We have a stock market cheer leader president , QE Fed, and half-idiot-half-genius millennial home buyers, the future is gloomy for me.

  209. 1959
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1953:

    I often agree with justme and the like about their concerns. One recently said the lowest tier are soon to be in default and I see some truth there. If they let the lender dictate what % of gross income they could “afford” without regard to a real person’s budget in this area and the high cost of many things compare to the rest of the Country, are they being set up for failure? I think yes.

    It’s high time the lender % ratios were revamped, tested and changed. Too many people, especially in the lowest first time buyer price ranges, just believe whatever the lender says the “can afford”.

    Unfortunately, the so called lenders are just intermediaries. They couldn’t care less about the qualify of loans as long as they can pass on the loans as MBS etc. And if something goes wrong with MBS, there is always the Fed! It feels like déjà vu, no?

    The #1 purchasing factor for low tier homes is buyers qualify for loans. These buyers stopped buying in 2018 because payments were out of reach. In 2019, they are out in force following a 25% cut in interest rate. Now we have a booming low tier market and a struggling high tier market. Unfortunately, many low tier buyers are marginal buyers. I expect them to default at higher rates with or without a recession, given the high cost of living here.

  210. 1960
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 1955 – Even top tier earners have limits. Many are struggling in the bay area and Vancouver today. We may get there if recent trend continues.

  211. 1961
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1957
    But limit can be squeezed. People live in low cost RE area might go out eat twice a week. Seattle people might just eat once out a week. People in Seattle take a bus or even bike to work while people in Texas drive monster track to work. That only will save $500 a month. A $1000 life style saving will improve affordabilty quite a bit. 1000×12/0.04=300K housing premium.

  212. 1962
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Lulu @ 1958 – Don’t kid yourself. How many Starbucks patrons are really wealthy? I’m sure many UW students who frequent SBs have student debts…

  213. 1963
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1959
    The UW student are living on student loan or parent’s paycheck. And they rent like you. Poor people like *buck daily. I brew *buck at 10c a shot at home using Costco Kirkland *buck bean. $3 savingz x30 day=$100/month=30k housing. Yes people in Seattle in Seattle pay high premium. But when they retire and move to other low RE cost area, that premium will pay back as retirement saving.

  214. 1964
    Eastsider says:

    Bad news here. This is a cut of over 20% of staff at Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kan. I assume many of hundreds of suppliers, many located here, will be laying off people very soon.

    Major Boeing Supplier to Lay Off 2,800 Workers (pay-wall)
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-boeing-supplier-to-lay-off-2-800-workers-11578678089
    The biggest Boeing Co. 737 MAX supplier said it is planning an initial 2,800 layoffs, the first announced job cuts since the grounding of a plane that is rippling through the broader aerospace industry.

  215. 1965
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1961
    And that’s in Witchta KS. House is 1/5 of Seattle. layoff will make housing even more cheaper. Do you want to more est side for cheaper RE @Eastsider ?

  216. 1966
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1961

    If Seattle supplier laying off staff, people lost job might have to rent out the basement to make ends met. You might have more bargains. Bad new for laying off contractor, good news for Eastsider?

  217. 1967
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1957 – I have high tech friends(some are renters too) in bay area. people there has different belief system, I heard from them is that as long as price is not falling or stabilized, they will buy as long as downplay is ready. personally I believe bay area is leading indicator of housing market. If it continue the downward trend in the first few months I will be more hopeful. But as I said, people there has different belief system and RE propaganda machine is more crazier than here so I am pessimistic about any good news from bay area.

  218. 1968
    Mackenzie says:

    Does anyone know the apartment vacancy rates on the eastside? I notice that quite a few of the new complexes in Redmond and Bellevue are mostly dark at night. I wonder how many of those units are actually occupied? I also see that almost every complex has signs offering 1 or 2 months free for signing a lease. If vacancies were low I doubt they would be offering deals like that.

    It’s so odd that almost EVERY new complex is offering these deals.

  219. 1969
    lidh says:

    alright whens that recession coming boyos

  220. 1970
    richard says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 1965 – people turn off lights to save electricity money. You can drive around neighborhood to see many houses are dark but actually occupied and the bright room may not visible to you. Apt complex offer 1 month free may be because the rent is too high to start with, the other possiblility is it is during holiday season and there are not many people looking for apartment. Another possibility is people prefer to buy a house because they think house price will keep going up because amazon and other high tech companies will grow greatly in east side in a couple years.

  221. 1971

    RE: Erik @ 1934
    Being Successful at Anything is Elusive

    Erik, I’ll miss your successful positive thinking, please come back and share occasionally….its amazing how folks that can’t save money, can’t invest money and won’t take risks can blame those of us that can for all their economic “victim syndrome”….Hades some psychos blame folks like us for their strokes and health problems [I know, it happened to me]….how about saving money and investing right yourself and stop the blame finger pointing at those of us that can. IMO, they don’t want to work like Capitalists, they want “do nothing” Socialism instead. I see Bernie is over-powering Biden in many states….these folks buy food by 2nd mortgaging their homes and think its cute. Is American on the road to fail now?

  222. 1972

    My Two Mugs of Yuban Went Down Fast, I wiped my lips, now pour yourself a mug too….read the brief:

    “…Seattle-area chefs are fearful about the future — here’s a look at some significant recent restaurant shutdowns, the factors involved and what the players make of it all. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Covington overbuilt restaurants and fast food joints the last 10 years, now over half of them changed business owners, moved or just went out of business. Look at Covington Safeway…it looks like a proverbial advertisement for burger flipping joints. Even the cheap “beans, noodles and rice” places can’t make a profit. Steaks? LOL….you need to find a good sports bar to find those places now….and many of them just serve burgers too…

    “… Puget Sound housing markets may soon recapture their 2017 hotness, brokers predict. That spells bad news for affordability as the supply of available homes shrinks. See what’s happening in your area and what the future may hold. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: The word “may” is not reliable news, in fact its usually the opposite that occurs if the word “may” is used.

    “…Boeing apologized profusely as it gave Congress more than 100 pages of internal documents that show how employees spoke of deceiving regulators and airline customers during certification of the 737 MAX, and how they fought off moves to require anything but minimal pilot training for the plane. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Since when does hearsay evidence like whistle blowers need apologies by Boeing? Maybe its not “hearsay evidence”?

    “…”It’s a lie, but it’s fun,” the Seattle police officer said as he began setting a ruse in motion to nab a hit-and-run suspect. But then events spiraled into tragedy when the suspect took his own life. A police watchdog has found that the officer’s action “shocked the conscience” and contributed to the man’s death. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Blame everyone for your health and medical “victim” problems except yourself…LOL

    “… The hottest home-design trends for 2020 can incorporate local flavor. Keep the Seahawks gear to the fan cave, and look for classic craftsmanship, lodge-chic and Pacific Northwest minimalism in these favorite pieces. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: I sure hope we don’t return to the “Bush” Rhino agenda….a Bunch of giant “Japanese Engineered” V-8 Tundras with Bush stickers and Seahawk flags waving….with guns and NRA stickers mounted in the rear windows….LOL….let’s not forget the empty beer cans in the truck bed too….LOL

    “…A classic Ballard neighborhood radiates timeless Seattle charm, and Dan and Jen Plumb’s lovely 1929 home blends in beautifully. Out back, though, it’s a whole new era with an inspiring addition that has significantly multiplied their options. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Seattle area’s museum home “money pits” are not the stock Erik trades in, he prefers newer structures without “continuous” HUGE maintenance bills sucking him dry.

    “… Only 41% of Washington students are projected to earn a post-high school credential by age 26 – and most jobs will require it. AVID is a teaching method proven to prepare kids for the future with “the will and the skill to succeed.” Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: How about companies hiring them at low wages [interns] instead for like 5-10 years of mentoring? The schools are horrible place to learn MSFT/Boeing company trade secrets and source codes….they can’t do it.

    The Good News: The Seahawks play Sunday for a NFC Championship slot….GO SEAHAWKS!!

  223. 1973

    RE: Lulu @ 1951
    Yes Lulu

    But not all Seattle folks use logic and common sense too…I have seen and heard many folks that “line up” for $3.49/gal gas and brag about “not caring” about price comparisons. Cook at home? To a great degree that means microwaving frozen dinners…LOL…these “processed” frozen dinners aren’t cheap either, eating out is about the same price now. Blame the parents for “not cooking” and teaching their kids the same laziness?

  224. 1974

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 1953
    You’re Preaching to the Choir Ardell ;-)

    In the hey days of the 80s and 90s we had a bank mortgage limit of 30% of “net pay” after all “monthly” loan payments [car, 2nd mortgage, student loans, etc, etc]. Period. Do the math, 30% of net pay is almost half of 30% of gross pay the pundits all allege too. We pay taxes until May before we get real money…LOL

    My $300/mo rent in 1982, and 15% interest on $CASH$ in Money Markets back then, meant I could be on unemployment for 8 months, save money and rent and drive a car…my sister called me “self-employed” then…LOL

  225. 1975

    Did SWE Goof and Forget the January 2020 MOM Investor’s Raw Data Report?

    It was late this month as end of year data was in flux:

    Dec 0.16% (0.08%) 3.01% 2.15% 3.24%
    YTD 2.24% 8.68% 31.45% 27.97% 22.47%
    Last 12 mo 2.24% 8.68% 31.45% 27.97% 22.47%

    Long-term CDs, Long-term Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    Hey, 31% YTD return on American Stocks makes arguing about 0-7% alleged Seattle RE avg growth a joke now. Get off your duffs and get rich…buy stocks…LOL

    No amount of useless ambiguous chatter can cover up this “recent” 2020 salient fact.

  226. 1976

    RE: Mackenzie @ 1965
    Yes, I’m Seeing 1st Month Free Signs Suddenly/Recently at Apartments too.

    BTW, it takes 1st and last month deposits and damage deposits now to rent….that sounds like about $5K $CASH$ to me. That’s not chump change.

    You can always tell if 30-40 YOs are cohabitating with family….lots of cars in the driveway….LOL

  227. 1977
    justsomedude12 says:

    Wow, the Yuban must have really been flowing this morning.

  228. 1978
    sfrz says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 1973 – Tim’s asked him to stop. SWE uses Tim’s blog like it’s his blog. On and on…. Yuban and his takes. Blah blah blah.

  229. 1979
    Mackenzie says:

    What’s really odd is that very few of these apartment rental discounts are listed on apartments.com or zillow. I just checked the web sites for a couple complexes near my home for which I saw discount signage today and none of the sites show the discounts. Not even the direct web site for the buildings show the discounts.

    It looks like the only way to find the actual rental prices is to call the management office for each building.

  230. 1980
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: sfrz @ 1974 – Yeah. He seems like a nice enough guy, so I just skip over those posts.

  231. 1981
    sfrz says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 1975 – Do not rent from Greystar. Research, google before signing.

  232. 1982

    If I Say Buy It Anyway, That’s News You Can Use?

    Sounds like a hose with a hole in it to me…LOL

    Some of you Kings/Queens of freedom of speech are hypocrites when you even talk censorship and open forum limits….where in the SB input rules does it limit the size of freedom of speech at Seattle Bubble? In your Fairy Tale Books? I can’t find it, it doesn’t exist, you invented it. If you can’t quote it in writing, ya made it up. Liar.

    “…A fringe movement of privacy advocates are experimenting with clothes, makeup and accessories as a defense against some surveillance technologies. Some wearers desire to opt-out of “surveillance capitalism,” while others fear government invasion of privacy. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Stay away from cylinder electronics and door bell cameras if you want privacy, they illegally monitor our private homes with them.

    “…Trying to save money, or cook more in the new year? Here’s a recipe for a popular beef with chili Chinese take-out dish that is easy to make at home. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Slice that “cheap” tough beef strain thin and soak it in tenderizer or it chews like tough grizzle.

    “…Packing your own lunch is an excellent way to guarantee a fulfilling meal that benefits both your health and your wallet. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Popcorn and canned soup….yuck…if I opened that bag lunch I’d trade it out ASAP

    Good News: Seahawks play today and we all hope they’ll WIN!!

  233. 1983

    RE: Matt P @ 1941
    Do You Have More Raw Data, I Can’t Find It

    I want to know how many per capita avg incomes [$40K/yr] are raising avg households to $200K? If its gangs of 3-5 its irrelevant data….hardly any of us wants to co-habitate with family for the rest of our lives…

  234. 1984

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1979

    I Found This Raw Data on Per Capita Versus Household Income

    https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/09/26/income-gains-for-many-but-no-change-in-poverty-rates-for-seattle-and-king-county/

    I apologize for its omission of “#’s of avg per capita income per home”…but its close.

  235. 1985

    Snow Predicted Monday-Thursday

    Assuming the weather guys are right. They error on predictions plenty too.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather/united-states/washington/kent-12798905

    Time for tire chains and studs or extended leave? LOL

  236. 1986
    Mackenzie says:

    The Lux at 1000 100th Ave Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004 is offering six weeks free rent.
    The Brio at 11130 Ne 10th St, Bellevue, WA 98004 is offering six weeks free rent.

  237. 1987
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 1982
    Whoa! That means you could get a sweet 3 bed at the Lux for only $63,000 the 1st year.

  238. 1988
    Matt P says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1943:

    RE: Matt P @ 1941

    Could you compare for us the costs (rent paid vs monthly PITI) vs the benefits (size,location, other considerations) that made you think it was a good decision to buy?

    Wasn’t around for a few days.

    PITI is $3042 ($0 down loan as I’m a vet) but we’re about to refi that down $250 or so. That’s felicitous, so I can’t say that factored into the decision. It’s a 3 bedroom townhouse, but we only needed 2 – rent of similar 2 bedroom units run $2300 to $2500 (none have the view ours has – we got lucky there). Taking the low end for rent, we’re paying $750 more per month. We could take the $750 per month and invest it, but the other $2300 would be lost. Some of our payment goes to interest, but we’re getting a return on principal at the rate of our mortgage. We’ll also get mortgage interest deduction benefit. We max 401k, HSA and roths thus tax advantaged accounts are gone.

    When comparing returns, and leveraging, taking $2300 rent plus $742 to invest vs $3042 PITI – with $940 going to principal and increasing. Since the $940 gets a tax benefit over the standard deduction and the $742 would need taxes paid on gains, and with the principal increasing every month and rent going up every year – it quickly becomes much more favorable to have the loan. Refinancing makes it even more in favor of buying.

    We plan to stay at least decade, and even if prices don’t increase at all during that time, we come out ahead vs renting. If he housing market crashes and never recovers, then oh well, we took a risk, but at least we won’t have to move for anything but a disaster and being laid off instead of having to move because of increased rents, crappy management, etc. Now, I’m not saying it’s the right choice for everyone, but for us, it was, and for many others too if they really take a good look at their finances.

    There are other considerations that are hard to parse out – most places don’t have a garage but this one did and my wife doesn’t like having to start a cold car and we don’t have to worry about finding street parking or having our car broken into all the time (I take the bus); we have rooftop deck with a gas hookup; we’re within walking distance of grocery stores and restaurants.

  239. 1989
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1984

    Looking at it from any angle, for you buying makes a whole lot more sense than renting. Thanks for spelling this out for us.

  240. 1990

    SFRZ Got Erik So Mad He left the Blog

    And we should welcome his type to Seattle Bubble? LOL

    Sorry sfrz, I don’t have to be a brainless politically correct NWO “SNOWFLAKE” with no opinion but your’s….LOL…I’m retired and know how to blow the whistle too…it goes “TWEET”.

    Time to lift you Yuban mugs and say “SALUTE”, time to read the brief:

    “… Parts of Puget Sound area get several inches of snow — and more is on the way
    Kids in Redmond Ridge had enough snow to start a snowman yesterday. Residents in parts of the Puget Sound region woke up to as much as 9 inches of it today — along with a slew of school closures, delays and power outages. More snow is expected in the days ahead. (For weather updates via text message, text the word WEATHER to 855-480-9667.) Was last February’s “snowmageddon” a fluke, or can we expect more drama like it? We took your snow questions to the experts. Oh, and the White House oddly shared a photo celebrating the “first snow of the year” … as the temperature in D.C. hit 70 degrees. (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: Its 34 degrees in Covington, schools are 2 hours late, the dusting is melting on the streets, North Seattle got 9 inches??? Yikes!!

    “…In Iran today, there’s a dispute over whether security forces have opened fire on a crowd protesting the downing of a Boeing 737-800…”

    SWE’s take: And unlike the 1999 Battle of Seattle over Clinton joining the WTO, they use real bullets, not rubber ones.

    “…Seattle’s wild restaurant boom is showing signs of slowing. As the region suffers a rash of closures, chefs are talking about the pressures they’re facing and what may lie ahead. On a brighter note, here are 22 new openings (you’ll notice a clear trend)…”

    SWE’s Take: If you want to spend like $50-100 plate for food, parking, tip and drinks; try a cheaper venue with free parking, like Spenser Steaks in SEATAC, or Bali’s in Tukwila…the food is gourmet there too without parking costs and driving time. Snouqualmie has a great restaurant at Salish too.

    “…Should NASA put astronauts on the Boeing Starliner’s next flight? The space agency is facing a big dilemma after a problem during last month’s flight test prevented the craft from going to the International Space Station. Forcing Boeing to redo an unmanned test flight wouldn’t be cheap…”

    SWE’s Take: I’d much prefer NASA’s recent safety engineering failure at Boeing to Space-X’s string of regurgitated design flaws/explosions.

    GOOD NEWS BUBBLEHEADS: The Kent forecast now is just clouds with no snow Tuesday and Wednesday. Thank God the degreed Meteorologists are just “educated idiots”, taking WAGs…LOL

  241. 1991

    Real Bullets and Are They Carrying Machine Guns to Kill the Voters in Iran?

    https://apnews.com/1b5f51dc8712b6fcddc2010bbd9de31f

    The snow in Seattle seems innocuous in comparison…LOL

  242. 1992
    Juststoppedby says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1986:

    SFRZ Got Erik So Mad He left the Blog

    And we should welcome his type to Seattle Bubble? LOL

    Seems to me that this comment was totally unnecessary.

    Honestly, I have avoided commenting about your posts before because I was afraid of hurting your feelings, but I guess that shouldn’t be a concern with you.

    If you were with a group of friends would you constantly change the subject, drown out all of the conversation, and then do it again every single day?

    Probably not. Why? It’s called common courtesy.

    I’m guessing you have it in other contexts, but it is entirely lacking here.

    Word for word, you dominate this site. It’s not a dialogue, and apparently you’ve been asked to stop by the site owner, who may have just given up.

    Time and again, I see comments from other posters who say they just skip over your posts.

    Surely this os possibly but it detracts from the website and makes conversations and threads harder for everyone to follow.

    I don’t understand why you think common courtesy shouldn’t apply to you, but I guess you have your reasons…

  243. 1993
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 1983

    For the smaller, less attractive units, it is about $3.25/SF and up. That is par for the course for a high-end apartment these days.

    For the larger, more attractive units it is over $7/SF. Who could think that $10,000 a month to rent a 1392 SF unit is a smart move?

  244. 1994

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1988

    What’s your RE Input?

    In Your Fairy Tale Book? LOL

    What “knowledge and skills” have you added in value to Seattle Bubble this week?

  245. 1995

    Juststoppedby and sfzr can Skip the Brief, We’ll Drink Our Yuban Without ’em and Read the brief:

    “…The Seattle City Council is banning most political spending by “foreign-influenced corporations,” which could hinder attempts by multinational tech titans to sway the city’s elections. This may change Amazon’s role in Seattle politics, after the company threw its immense weight behind some council candidates in November…”

    SWE’s Take: Hey the Seattle Times flipped flopped on their journalism style, now foreign influence on Boeing/AMZ/MSFT is bad, last article they said it was good…LOL…they flip flop like proverbial pancakes…

    “…
    Tonight is the Democratic presidential candidates’ last debate before primary voting starts. Six big questions hang over the debate in Iowa, which will be the first state to have its say. The top candidates are locked in a very tight race there…”

    SWE’s Take: Bernie’s Socialism beats Biden’s “I Don’t Know What” in Iowa. Hey Biden fix Obamacare. LOL….how? Cat got your tongue…LOL. Take away the decent plans’, like Blue Cross and Group Health, etc, tax deduction on $1500-2000/mo costs or make Medicare useless with 2 mile lines for care for all…??? Good luck getting it passed in our do nothing Democratic controlled Congress.

    “…Richland’s Kayla Barron is ready to rocket into space. Barron, 32, graduated from NASA’s Astronaut Training program last week and is awaiting her first space flight. For now, she’s working with the teams designing space suits for humans — including the first woman — to wear to the moon. Her obsession with the skies started at Richland High School. (Photo: Robert Markowitz / NASA)…”

    SWE’s take: What’s her credentials? History major with experience in clothing design? LOL She’s no rocket scientist, that’s for sure.

    “…If you use Microsoft’s Windows 7, your computer may be at risk. Microsoft will stop providing free security updates for the system today, making those computers more vulnerable to malware and hacking. Here are the steps to take. ..”

    SWE’s Take: They used the word “may”, that means it won’t come true if we rely on percentages. The MSFT patches slowed my computer down…what specifically do these patches provide? Back doors for hackers? LOL…I’m sure Xfinity internet is gonna leave its fire wall security wide open for viruses to convince you that MSFT is “maybe” right. Hades no, the way they’ll grow clients is stop the viruses. Period. Its Xfinity vs MSFT now….LOL

    “…”Where are we?” Flights from the United States land every day or two in Guatemala, carrying asylum seekers from the U.S. border. It’s the first time the U.S. is shipping asylum seekers to what officials are calling a safe third country. But human-rights advocates, and some of the migrants, say they’re being dumped there without the most basic information…”

    SWE’s take: Asylum Has International WTO regulations…ya can’t skip Mexico and make asylum in America…its “world law”. So this article is brain washing.

    Good News: Maybe we’ll get some real RE inputs from sfrz and juststoppedby today….what is their predictions for 2020 Seattle home prices? They hope they decline to make Trump look bad, even though they own homes and and hope they go up at the same time? LOL

    They just like to argue?

  246. 1996
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1991

    Yaaaawn…

    Are you sure you’re old enough to be retired? This idea that you seem to have that everybody is clamoring for your insight reminds me of the stereotypical millennial.

    I wonder if more of the quality posters might stick around if the insights that they shared didn’t get lost in the weeds so quickly because of your posts.

  247. 1997
    Matt P says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 1992:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1991

    Yaaaawn…

    Are you sure you’re old enough to be retired? This idea that you seem to have that everybody is clamoring for your insight reminds me of the stereotypical millennial.

    I wonder if more of the quality posters might stick around if the insights that they shared didn’t get lost in the weeds so quickly because of your posts.

    Not to defend him, but age means nothing for retirement. You only need enough money at any age.

  248. 1998
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 1992

    There is a kind of Gresham’s law at work on blogs as well as in monetary systems. Just as bad money drives out good, inane off-topic content drives out creative, thoughtful commentary.

    The fact that The Tim has done nothing to rein in SoftWarEngineer and stop him from turning it into his own ga-ga daily post-it board is proof positive that he has given up on this blog and will not be back.

    Tim, thank you for your service in hosting this board all these years. Best of luck to you.

  249. 1999

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1994

    I think he’s still spending money to keep it up and I’m still sending him money monthly to that end. Is it time to cancel my PayPal monthly payments? :)

  250. 2000
    Bumble says:

    I wish Tim would at least update his charts if he is too busy to provide full posts with analysis. That would be fine. But like others have said, there may be something else preventing him from updating the blog, like a non-compete or other contractual prohibition. I wish he would take 30 second to inTIMate some clues to us.

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