NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau

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The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let’s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers

Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.

Multiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. “Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,” he added.

“The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,” stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the ‘sugar high’ that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.”

Quick note: According to data from Redfin, multiple offers are far from “commonplace” now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.)

However, new listings are indeed way down. Let’s get into the data to quantify the drop.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2019 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,194 -4.7% -10.1%
Closed Sales 2,531 -3.9% +6.1%
SAAS (?) 1.11 -4.8% -22.9%
Pending Sales 2,623 -10.1% +7.9%
Months of Supply 1.66 -0.7% -15.3%
Median Price* $670,000 -1.5% +0.1%

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory rose 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we’ve seen since January 2018.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

August 2019: $670,000
August 2018: $669,000
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: The market’s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2,953 comments:

  1. 2001
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1989 – I agree!
    Also, I wanted to highlight that an x week discount or a y percent change isn’t necessarily what you’d intuitively think, if you don’t look at the base numbers.

  2. 2002
    Silent Tiger says:

    This blog is dead. It had a good run. Too bad.

  3. 2003

    Gulp Yuban and read the Brief:

    “… Some areas get a break from snow — but brace for high winds today
    Students braved icy roads heading to the University of Washington’s Seattle campus yesterday. The campus is starting classes late today, and several local school districts are closed, including Seattle. Most of the city avoided more snow, but parts of Western Washington were hit hard for a third night. Strong winds are likely in the Puget Sound lowlands today; here’s what’s ahead. (Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: One word. Telework.

    “…Boeing’s final tally of jet orders and deliveries in 2019, released yesterday, starkly displays just how bad the year was for the company — and how good it was for Airbus, which delivered more than twice as many jets…”

    SWE’s take: The best way to lose orders to Airbus is outsource Boeing Seattle Manufacturing out of Seattle.

    “…Is your real-estate agent looking out for you? Most home shoppers don’t understand the different roles real-estate agents can play, a nonprofit watchdog says. The group decried Washington’s seven-page disclosure pamphlet on the subject as the worst in the country, needlessly confusing home shoppers…”

    SWE’s Take: Hire Ardell, she doesn’t shoot from the hip.

    Good News: Retirement is elusive today; but if SWE can plan it in [as a Milenial???, I’m a Baby Boomer…LOL], anyone can. Even with 0% interest on saving $CASH$.

  4. 2004

    Grabbed This URL Up From the Russia Times This Morning

    “Putin is throwing in the towel” He’s impeaching himself and the whole Russian government…this wasn’t on the American MSM BTW, why not????

    https://www.rt.com/russia/478340-government-resigns-russia-putin-medvedev/

    This is a game changer and yes, Seattle Real Estate will feel the shocks too…

  5. 2005
    No Name Guy says:

    2000!!

    Note. I wish the Bubble would be more active. I miss the regular updates.

  6. 2006
    Juststoppedby says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1998

    Just like a self absorbed millennial.

    “OMG!! Of course everybody should hear what I have to say!”

    Yawn

  7. 2007

    Use Your Cursor and Skip “Juststoppedby”

    He never contributes a “friggin'” thing to the comments, but loves to insult SWE.

    Good news” “Juststoppedby” Thinks I’m a Millenial….hey, I’m actually a 66 YO, that was a compliment :-)

    You better take my advice now, I’m successfully retired at age 35 now…LOL…I like his lie.

  8. 2008

    My Yuban Cup Is Empty and The Thursday Brief Hasn’t Arrived Yet Today

    Other news ya can use to run your Seattle RE businesses:

    MSFT to end patches to Windows 2007 for 2020 they allege, meanwhile they automatically patched my Windows 2007 in 2020 yesterday with a big 4 part update. They speak with forked tongue? They’re not dumb, assuming the patches are basically irrelevant when mixed with anti-virus S/W and internet modem fire walls, they may have brainwashed us and they don’t want us to find out? LOL

  9. 2009
    Juststoppedby says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2002:

    Good news” “Juststoppedby” Thinks I’m a Millenial….hey, I’m actually a 66 YO, that was a compliment :-)

    You better take my advice now, I’m successfully retired at age 35 now…LOL…I like his lie.

    Yep, too self absorbed to actually read the first of four lines of comments.

    What I SAID was:

    “Just LIKE a self absorbed millennial.“

    And you’re still missing the point.

    Your unsolicited blathering takes up a lot of the real estate, and it drowns out the exchange of information and makes following the dialogue more difficult.

  10. 2010
    Ron says:

    Ohhh Tim~! Where are you?

  11. 2011
    Deerhawke says:

    Since The Tim is now officially MIA, folks who follow this blog should really spread out a bit and look elsewhere.

    Redfin has a few things on their website. Pretty bland, non-specific stuff. They mainly write on national rather than Northwest issues. I have found that what they write is accurate, but is often beside the real point. You can find this by googling Redfin plus Tim Ellis or Daryl Fairweather.

    Matthew Gardner is an economist who has long focused on the Northwest real estate market. He has been associated with the UW Center on Real Estate Research (The Runstad Center) and was independent for many years. More recently he has been the official economist for Windermere. If you can get an invitation to his presentations, they are well worth the time. In person, he is quite droll and very informative. But his shop also publishes several reports every year. They tend to be a bit blander, safer and more generic, but still worth your attention. Here are a few recent ones.

    https://getthewreport.com/local-economy/

    https://getthewreport.com/the-state-of-real-estate/local-market-update-january-2020/

  12. 2012
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2006

    Thanks for passing along the information. It’s important to pay attention to the national trends which are covered pretty well by Redfin, but as you and many others have pointed out sometimes the PNW does not follow the national trend. Still, a good reference.

    Have not read much of Matthew Gardner but will give his stuff a read.

  13. 2013
    JWoods says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2006
    The main reason I check this site is for information about the local market, for insight and experience from people like you. It’ll be a shame to see everyone leave and let this site slowly degrade to irrelevance.

    Is there anything we can do?
    1) Is Tim willing to transfer the site to another owner? I’ll be interested in helping to keep it going
    2) If not, can we establish another forum where we can share and continue the discussion?

  14. 2014
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: JWoods @ 2008

    I completely agree.

    I come here to look at past charts that present the data in a particularly useful, thoughtful format. Occasionally I will go back and do some research using past postings or archives. I mainly write my thoughts down to clarify them for myself rather than to try to influence others. I really enjoy reading contributions by others who have interesting perspectives, particularly Ardell.

    But you are right. SB at this point is kind of like a vacant building that is so run down and neglected it is attracting squatters (think Yuban). To allow it to decline further into complete irrelevance would truly be a shame.

    Maybe as some have mentioned, Tim now has a conflict of interest with Redfin.. More likely he has a busy family life and this just looks and feels too much like work at the end of the long day.

    And honestly, it is not really clear that he even reads his own blog anymore.

    I would hope Tim would allow others to carry on the blog and share its burdens. I too would be interested in helping keep it going and think it could be given new life and new energy.

    Tim, are you listening. What do you say?

  15. 2015
    Brian says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2006

    I appreciate the link but Matthew’s site doesn’t provide any platform for discussion. And as you said, Redfin is too broad for people that mostly care about the king county market.

  16. 2016

    The Seattle Bubble Has Repetitive Charts With the Same MOM/YOY NAR Conclusions Anyway

    Clients are all completely different to Deerhawk [a builder], Milenials [the low wage per capita wage buyers that sustain Tier III], the retired with $CASH$, the retired [most of them BTW] with no $CASH$, the Flippers and even the homeless with $15/hr burger flipping jobs and no way to pay rent. Every case is different, I believe the best thing to happen on Seattle Bubble, already happened.

    Stop blaming the voices on the blog that don’t address your prejudices. Of course we don’t all make the same pay, inherit money, invest or believe all alike….are we humans are robots? LOL

    I beg to differ, the Seattle Bubble is currently/continuously using boring unchanged “repetitive” data and you Yahoos blame folks that don’t agree with you???? Get a life….every attorney knows every case is different. Embrace diversity of thought and don’t shame Freedom of Speech in America.

  17. 2017
    Everyone says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2011

    SWE – Take a moment to reflect. Reflect on your decision making and the feedback of others. No one, NO ONE, is claiming you CAN’T say what you want in America. Nearly everyone is saying your posts ON THIS BLOG are off-topic and too many. Reflect…Do not Deflect.

    PLEASE

  18. 2018

    Grab Your Yuban and Read the Friday Brief:

    “…Home prices zipped higher in Western Washington last year — except in King County, where the median price fell. Don’t expect that decline to last, say brokers and lenders, who are seeing signs of pent-up demand. One major brokerage predicts an “extreme frenzy” in some parts of the region. ..”

    SWE’s take: Where was the “extreme frenzy” Whatcom County with no jobs?

    “…George Buckingham didn’t expect his leg to be taken from his tent while he went to shower at a shelter in Pioneer Square. As hundreds of homeless camps are cleared away, so are the residents’ belongings — and few get them back. We’re talking about medical devices, medication, IDs, bicycles, clothes, photos and more. The losses add hurdles to finding housing and staying healthy…”

    SWE’s take: We treat illegal alien foreign asylum seekers much better than simply burning all their possessions.

    “…The Trump administration broke the law when it withheld aid from Ukraine, a nonpartisan federal watchdog agency reported just hours before the Senate opened its impeachment trial yesterday. Almost simultaneously, new revelations were emerging about President Donald Trump’s links to Ukraine. What does all of this mean? We might not get to see: The trial could suddenly veer out of public view at critical moments…”

    SWE’s Take: Watchdog Agency headed by Quid Pro Quo Biden’s campaign manager?

    “… The average salary of a software developer in the Seattle area is $121,250 per year. Cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cloud computing and full stack web development are trends that open career paths…”

    SWE’s take: How many S/W Developers have they hired in 2019? Two? LOL The bulk of the jobs went to:

    https://www.indeed.com/q-Starting-Pay-l-Seattle,-WA-jobs.html

    Good News: the 5 bdrm Kent homes can be grabbed up for like $500-600K a piece , built new on postage stamp sized lots….the double parking lot driveways are ample space for three extra cars for 30-40 YO family members working that can’t afford rent….a nice cozy family relationship, with everyone “subletting” at other’s throats….LOL

  19. 2019
    David says:

    A 20-year bond is being introduced by the Feds. MAYBE a 50-year bond.

    This to lock-in lower rates for the Government.

    Do they keep printing money to inflate their way out of the debt?

    Either way, it seems this would normalize private rates – hence much higher returns on private money. Hence, higher interest rates?

  20. 2020

    The Homeless Man’s Replacement Leg Was Cleaned Up and Destroyed By the King County Cleaning Crew, so grab your mugs and thank your Lucky Stars It Wasn’t You, Fill ’em With Yuban and Read the Brief:

    “… Lost in homeless camp cleanup: His belongings, including his ‘leg’
    George Buckingham didn’t expect his medical device to be taken from his tent while he went to shower at a shelter in Pioneer Square. As hundreds of homeless camps are cleared away, so are the residents’ belongings — and few get them back. We’re talking about medication, canes, IDs, bicycles, clothes, photos and more. The losses add hurdles to finding housing and staying healthy. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Stories like this makes me really doubt the mental stability of folks that allege this isn’t as important as making sure an old Soviet Satellite State Ukraine got its $billion in aid from the tax payers, us.

    Good News: Climate Change is being challenged by the frigid cold temperatures hitting America [another Polar Vortex This Year?] today, Kansas City went from 60s to 8 degrees F today….brrrrrrr…makes our 35-45 degrees F rain seem like a joke now….LOL

  21. 2021

    Going back to my numbers from 12/31 that I assumed might be the lowest point of inventory in comment #1742. Trying to do a week to week while I can though I’m a few days late as I waited for the snow to go away.

    Total was 2,388 on 12/31
    1/7 it is 2,251
    1/18 is 2,224

    Condos were 632
    1/7 they are 576
    1/18 is 579

    Residential was 1,756
    1/7 is 1,675
    1/18 is 1,645

    Again, no need to do the full breakdown that I did on 12/31 since the numbers aren’t moving up. There are a few more condos, but not worth wondering about. When they start moving up I’ll want to see which segments are doing that.

    I am doing Inventory on a regular basis as I can’t run these numbers in hindsight like I can Sold and Median Sold Prices. So if I don’t mark them down somewhere like here, I can’t later go back to get them.

    I haven’t done my 2019 stats yet because December closings are still late posting. Tim and the mls always used a made up number by throwing in a fictitious number for what might be late postings. I don’t do that as even a small number of sales can be meaningful when volume is low. On December 31st or Jan 1 the data said 2,428 and now it is 2,450. There were 7 new ones recently so I’ll give it a bit more time until the difference is smaller or none. Usually I only wait 10 days but I find year end postings tend to have more of a delay as agents are more likely to forget during the Holidays than at the end of other months. Since I have no urgency to know the answer, I’ll wait until I’m more sure the numbers include as many late postings as possible.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  22. 2022

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2009

    I’ve been thinking more about your question about not viable listings and to me they are the 0 bedroom or even 1 bedroom as to house, which is why I break things down by # of bedrooms. Time on market not really relevant to me in and of itself.

    When there is a 3 or 4 bedroom house that is a 1,1,1 or a 2/2, that to me is more significant. North Seattle house with one bedroom on the main, one in the basement and one in the attic or an Eastside house with two bedrooms on the main and two in the basement or in the attic. No 3 bedrooms on the same level has always been more of a factor in this area and the Zestimates and Estimates are inflated for those and usually the list prices, because AVMs don’t care where the 4 bedrooms are, but the market does.

    So yes, I agree with you that some properties are not viable listings as they are overpriced for what they truly are for many reasons, it wouldn’t be days on market to me. Difficult access to the property, busy road and all of the things that didn’t have a discount during the hot market, but do now. Those are the wildcards.

  23. 2023
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2016

    This is what I always appreciate about your analysis Ardell. You start with questions, go granular into the data and find ways to come up with creative data-based answers.

    In sum, 1) inventory is low and dropping and 2) a lot of the inventory that shows on the MLS is not quite what it appears to be.

    I think our spring market may be delayed a bit by the recent snow. If you live in Seattle, this seems absurd since there was so little of it. People here are famously pathetic in the snow and panic when they see 1/2 an inch. The bigger effect was north of the city where people got not half an inch but half a foot. It is difficult to get a listing to market when a lot of contractors, laborers, stagers etc. out in Snohomish can’t get into the city. And then that causes sequencing delays.

  24. 2024

    Great Discourse Deerhawke and Ardell

    The application to your clients is very clear and innovative IMO.

  25. 2025

    2019 Federal Income Taxes Due Soon

    I just dusted over my 2018 forms last night and even though I increased my net pay by about 2.2% for two taxed and one untaxed $CASH$ 2019 “combined” income delta….my higher “combined” 2019 W4 tax deduction should be adequate for another taxable income refund anyway….Trump Money….LOL

    To me the “tax and spend” Open Border Party are like thieves trying to rob my revenue gains.

    All classes of incomes and households need lower tax rates IMO. or they flee the State like rats jumping a sinking Titanic. But Seattle is different than LA or SF….LOL….who told you that?

  26. 2026

    Seattle Times Brief Was Brief Indeed Sunday, One Article Relates to Home Prices in Seattle, so Grab Your Yuban Mug and Fill It, Mines Empty in the Dishwasher:

    “….Editor’s note: The following is an edited excerpt from Karisa Keasey’s book, “When You Can’t Go Home: Portraits of Refugees in the Pacific Northwest.” The book can be purchased on Keasey’s website, karisakeasey.com. “I REMEMBER WHEN I was young,” says Jeanne, with a bittersweet smile. The sunlight streaks through the blinds of her Kent home, highlighting the […] Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Who cares, let’s get the “legal citizen” homelessness problems fixed in Seattle first, then worry about the rest of the world. I’m reading a great book from Anne Rice about the African American and French inter-mixing in New Orleans in 1840 with diversity to create an unique MLK rainbow culture. It was written in 1979 and is titled “A Feast of Saints” [celebration of after life]….music, literature and stage became all different then/there and nothing like that happened in America history since. Yeah, it has the voodoo and skull parades with parties too….LOL…a great Black History Read IMO…

  27. 2027
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2017

    The main issue there is it is negligent here to have snow in exterior photos given snow periods can be short and infrequent. Nothing dates a listing worse than snow pictures in early Spring.

    The market isn’t open for the season until inventory starts to expand.

  28. 2028

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2018

    Thank you SWE. I do pay attention to the political exchanges as I am one of those people who can be swayed as to Party. Pretty sure I’m a registered Republican since I registered back when I worked at a Bank when I first turned 18. I have not always voted Republican over the years, but pretty much did before I moved here in 2004.

    I don’t like the spin used on the tag names like “Open Board Party” though. I prefer when people can have rational discourse and just say Democrats or Republicans without attaching a demeaning label. When people do that I tend to tune it out even though I am very interested in people’s positions. I rarely hate anyone. It’s just not in me to be that way.

  29. 2029
    Brian says:

    I know it’s the dead of winter, but I can’t believe how little is for sale on the Eastside right now. One single family house with a garage under $650K between Bothell and Newcastle and it probably won’t make it past its Tuesday offer review based on the Redfin stats I’m seeing. Only two for sale under $700K – one of those is the one mentioned above and the other is a short sale that will take a while. So basically just one for sale under $700K.

    Does this look normal to you Ardell?

  30. 2030

    RE: Brian @ 2023

    Yes it looks normal to me for this time of year. Normal being nothing worth buying and not necessarily nothing at all. There was more of a sell off of old inventory in the last 30 to 45 days than usual, which may be giving you the nothing at all result. But I’m not sure as I only pay attention to the ones worth buying.

    The last one worth buying that I looked at, but was well over $700 was this one. I mentioned it here. With 8 offers we backed off, so there could have been even more offers. Bid up almost $50,000.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/8208-NE-131st-St-98034/home/276280

    It’s very common for there to be nothing worth buying in January, and I’m looking up to $1.1M.

    I call “The Eastside” Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond…with a side order of Sammamish-Issaquah if all else fails with a bit of Bothell for good measure. Are you including anything else in your search? I don’t go into Duvall, as example. 98006 is a bit more buyer beware than all of the rest of it, so that not on the top of my go to list.

    There is a backlog of buyers in that price range, so if something does come up it’s more likely to bid up this time of year and maybe all the way through the season. So if you see a $700k it likely won’t sell there. Same as when I was looking up to $800k and that one listed at $790k went for $837,500.

    Under $700k has become a smaller % of the market unless you are including townhomes.

    I do have one I’m not putting on market yet in Kirkland. Not sure where I’ll price it yet. I helped them buy it in 2009 for $315,000 or so, so it may be in that range. But I need to find a place to put them. :)

  31. 2031
    Brian says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2024

    Thank you for your thoughts. Your definition of the Eastside seems similar to mine. Bounded to the west by Lake Washington, bounded to the north by highway 522 (mayble slightly more north), bounded to the east by Cottage Lake & Lake Sammamish, bounded to the south by Newcastle.

  32. 2032

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2024 – Hey Ardelle Your Kirkland Townhouse and My Kent Modular are Close in Listed $300K Price Range

    Good choices for both of us….I didn’t need a Kent area $700K barn sized 5 bdrm to heat and maintenance and either did you apparently. The prices were high the last decade or two; but we didn’t need a “rooming house” barn to heat this winter with like family packed in. BTW, my new 2017 furnace may of cost $7K, but I’m noticing a $50-70/mo decrease in my PSE bill to heat my house now, so the newer furnaces can pay for themselves in about 20 years. In engineering I learned a 20 year payback is still too low [i.e., nuclear reactors], so fixing the old furnaces still makes sense too.

    I use the term “Open Border Party” label because the “Never Trumpers” and Progressives were blatantly against border security funding and the terms Democrat/Republican was not representative of this establishment “inaction” identification now or in the past…the parties got mixed together, the title wasn’t a mean attack intended, albeit I see your point. Covering for the “Never Trumpers” establishment is not in my book, but I get it Ardell. I was mostly a dedicated blue dog Democrat before 1999 when Bill Clinton joined the WTO….then I had no candidate for a decade until Trump. I voted Nader and Perot too….I just didn’t believe the candidates for no border security, job outsourcing and lower wages were in my favor. My favorite Wash St Democrat was Sen Scoop Jackson, he rocked!

  33. 2033

    Grab Your Mugs and Gulp Yuban, Its a MLK Holiday for Some of You [postal workers too?], so Its Time to Rise and Shine and Read the Brief:

    “…A giant fireball erupted, and SpaceX’s crew capsule shot off like a champagne cork at more than twice the speed of sound. It’s OK, that was supposed to happen. Check out the photos of yesterday’s successful test of the emergency abort system, which put the U.S. on a path to resuming human spaceflights as soon as this spring. Meanwhile, Twitter is having its own blast after the new U.S. Space Force unveiled its uniforms…”

    SWE’s take: Emergency Abort space systems doesn’t sound good in an overall Safety Engineering sense, not good at all. Time will tell, but its a red flag to me, especially since NASA didn’t need this.

    “…Ferry ridership dropped by about 800,000 passengers last year, driven down by the February snowstorm, waterfront construction and a speedier alternative. The Seattle-Bremerton route recorded the biggest drop, with ridership falling 15%. But Washington State Ferries officials say they aren’t worried. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take” Perhaps we need to cut ferry routes down to size and layoff the excess workers? 800,000 ghost riders isn’t chump change to publically fund.

    “…”If you asked the public in the Puget Sound region what’s your top issue,” the answer used to be jobs and the economy, says state Sen. Hans Zeiger. But now, “homelessness is a huge issue of concern.” As smaller Washington cities grapple with it, Republicans are bringing their plans to the Legislature — including a tax increase, despite the GOP’s historical antipathy to that…”

    SWE’s take: Wake up and smell the coffee “Democrats and Never Trumpers” and fix homelessness, its devaluing RE in Seattle. Even the Republicans are willing to “tax and spend” for this worthy issue and its positive impact on increased home prices can pay for itself IMO.

    “…A third of Seattleites will be driving electric vehicles in 10 years, if the city has its way. But can the electric grid handle that? It might depend on when we all charge up. Seattle is testing charging stations with rates that nearly double at peak times. Meanwhile, buyers nationwide have huge hesitations about any electric cars not named Tesla…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds just like Obamacare insane health care costs, sign the bill and then we find out it doesn’t work. These village idiots better know if the electric grid can support electric cars, the charging is usually at night when solar cells aren’t working….LOL…I hear China is looking into replaceable Lithium Batteries instead, same conundrum, no idea if it will even work [the recharging is accomplished on our limited grid capacity either way]….Denmark currently uses COAL to charge their electric golf carts and the CARBON FOOTPRINT is far worse than gasoline cars.

    “…Shannon Vargas slept in a tent with her kids, pretending “that it was fun, that we were camping.” Then they graduated to a hotel while the struggling single mom worked at a restaurant near Chicago. Near closing time one night, a customer got “a nudge from God,” pulled out her credit card and scrawled a message on her bill: “Because everybody needs a little help sometimes.” The not-so-little help is changing Vargas’ life…”

    SWE’s Take: Democrats hate the statistics on charity giving, but they give very little back of their own incomes compared to the Republicans. Statistics don’t lie.

    “…President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial really gets rolling in the Senate tomorrow. The lawyers have been busy dropping clues about what’s to come. Here’s a viewer’s guide, some key questions that could take center stage, and a fact check on what Trump and the presidential candidates are saying. It all comes as we approach a critical moment in the Democratic primary fight…”

    SWE’s Take: Where is our health care Democrats?, even Bill Clinton calls Obamacare “crazy”. Impeachment more important? LOL

    Good News: Bloomberg is making the point in the Democrat primaries on a surge in Democrat campaign funding compared to Trump….the problem is Trump far under spends the Democrats and still wins in 2016…LOL…MASS puppet money to pick a President is a path to bribery/failure in my book.

  34. 2034
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2027 – I was able to watch an hear the Spacex explosion yesterday here in Cocoa Beach.

    Spacex total expenditures from that start $21B.

  35. 2035
    David says:

    Correction:

    Spacex from first ever launch $21B.

  36. 2036
    David says:

    NASA/Boeing space launch system (the one that just failed) “>” $21B

    Spacex total expenditures from the start “<" $500M

  37. 2037
    Bumble says:

    Redfin released its Dec 2019 data. https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

    King County SFHs:

    Average price in Dec 18: $640k
    Average price in Dec 19: $683k

    Inventory in Dec 18: 2,747
    Inventory in Dec 19: 1,370

  38. 2038
    Deerhawke says:

    By Bumble @ 2037:

    Redfin released its Dec 2019 data. https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

    King County SFHs:

    Average price in Dec 18: $640k
    Average price in Dec 19: $683k

    Inventory in Dec 18: 2,747
    Inventory in Dec 19: 1,370

    Thanks for posting this. Interesting difference with the reported NWMLS numbers:

    King County SFHs:

    Average price in Dec 18: $639k
    Average price in Dec 19: $675k

    Inventory in Dec 18: 2,838
    Inventory in Dec 19: 1,664

    Maybe Redfin uses the later “adjusted” numbers rather than the flash numbers. If you go with their numbers, the drawdown in late 2019 inventory is even more stunning and the price effect is sooner and more pronounced.

    This spring market might have been delayed a bit by weather. However the buyers have been out in force since the first week of the year and seem really motivated. Itis the sellers who are taking their time and seem to need a reason to pull the trigger. Very reminiscent of 2016.

  39. 2039
    N says:

    When did we change to tracking avg sale price instead of median

  40. 2040
    Bumble says:

    RE: N @ 2039

    I wrote “average price” but the numbers are in fact median price. My mistake.

  41. 2041

    RE: Everyone @ 2017
    You Know the Term “Everyone” is a blatant Lie

    So why are you lying about me?

    BTW…who the Hades are you? You work for Democrats and Governor Inslee? Know one knows your identity or credentials….and we should obey your commands…LOL

  42. 2042

    Time to Gulp Your Yuban and Read the Brief:

    “… Where the Puget Sound area’s most changed neighborhoods are
    It’s been a decade of head-spinning transformation. Where did residents feel it the most? FYI Guy crunched the data and found five standouts when it comes to population, income, jobs, kids and more. One of them is downtown Bellevue, where the number of residents who use transit has increased by more than fivefold. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times, file) …”

    SWE’s take: What numbers use transit in Bellevue? Up to 1.5% from 1%…??? LOL…another thing why is it good for RE sales that more folks use transit….it can also mean they can’t afford a car working for burger flipper wages…

    “…This tax season could be chaotic — and disappointing for taxpayers expecting a hefty refund. Congress passed tax breaks late last year that will require the IRS and software providers to revise forms at the last minute, and taxpayers may have to amend their past returns to get the breaks. Here’s what to watch for…”

    SWE’s take: LOL…the Trump 1040 Form is much simpler and shorter now. I do mine in under a hour now.

    “…How Boeing’s role in a deadly crash “got buried”: A decade before two Boeing 737 MAX jets crashed, a 737 went down near Amsterdam. A review of evidence, some of it previously confidential, reveals striking parallels with the recent crashes — and resistance by the team of Americans to a full airing of findings that later proved relevant to the MAX…”

    SWE’s take: The 737-800 crashed in Amsterdam in 2009. Faulty cockpit controls to blame…yes, it sounds similar to the MAX 8. Why was this evidence confidential? It sounds like evidence that is needed in court.

    “…We’re reporting on mental health and schools, and we need readers’ help. If you’re interested in the topic and want to share your questions or perspective to help guide our coverage, please contact us…”

    SWE’s take: We’re “recently” sleeping ‘MUCH” less on average, especially Gen-X [over 35] and Milenial [under 35] ….this causes sleep deprivation symptoms, like Depression…6 hours of sleep avg are the numbers I saw for the young adults, that’s insomnia in my book. Great idea for brain storming Seattle Times :-) BTW, I used to get like 6-7 hrs some evenings when I worked, my sleep is now over a 10 hour period since I retired, early retirement lengthens your lifespan they say. I believe it. Reading a ton of books helps rest too….I heard recently “chronic” iPhone use increases Depression too, so use it less.

    “…Washingtonians who expect open, transparent government should contact legislators and urge them not to weaken the Public Records Act with two House bills, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. ..”

    SWE’s Take: Excellent Journalism Seattle Times, what are they hiding? LOL

    Good News: Seattle’s Brief had two great reads this morning on Depression analysis and hiding State legislation from the voters…Great Job!

  43. 2043

    Insomnia the New Gen-X and Milenial Norm

    RE: Seattle Times brief inputs on RE sales and life style in Seattle:

    https://www.studyfinds.org/tired-nation-americans-now-averaging-less-than-6-hours-sleep-per-night/

    Too little sleep makes you fat too I read.

  44. 2044
    Bumble says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2038

    That seems like a good hypothesis. What I don’t understand is why the Redfin feed that Tim has in the margins of the homepage for King Co SFH inventory never dropped much below 1600 when the Redfin data center is reporting numbers under 1400 for December.

    Despite any relatively small imperfections, I love the Redfin data center graphs, especially in Tim’s absence. Check out this trend line for King Co SFH prices, https://ibb.co/4VkxYbk (hopefully it works). Prices got a little bit ahead of their own skis in 2016 and 2017, so 2018 and 2019 seemed flat, but the upward trend is still very distinct and intact.

  45. 2045
  46. 2046
  47. 2047
    Joe says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2038

    There does seem to be a slight renewed interest in RE, which I attribute to stocks rising 30% in 2019. Because of stock market gains, people feel richer and are ready to take a risk on overpriced housing. If stocks fall in the future, similar to 2000 or 2009, the housing market will face lots of trouble. The stock and RE markets move together, as shown by the last recession, although the RE market slightly lags major stock movements.

    Note that both stocks and RE are supported by low interest rates and low incidence of default. Some would say both markets have been driven by continued interest rate reductions for many years.

    The big problem is that RE, stocks, employment, GDP growth, etc. all rise and fall together. It’s always good to be prepared for what might happen when things aren’t so good. For RE, that means keeping monthly costs low enough to weather the next recession and temporary loss of income, so you aren’t forced to sell at a top, which could be financially devastating and hard to recover from.

  48. 2048
    Deerhawke says:

    By Bumble @ 2044:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2038

    What I don’t understand is why the Redfin feed that Tim has in the margins of the homepage for King Co SFH inventory never dropped much below 1600 when the Redfin data center is reporting numbers under 1400 for December..

    Given the fact that Redfin provides the hourly inventory feed for this blog and that it is substantially in accord with the NWMLS monthly data and with what Ardell has been posting, I think the data center is off. Maybe it is measuring something else. Maybe it is netting out zero lot line row houses and town houses. Hard to say, but it is not something I would rely on.

    Having said that, it is clear we are still losing inventory in KC. The Redfin inventory feed shows us at 1623 now vs. 1936 a month ago ( and vs. 2795 a year ago.) Or if you compare to monthly NWMLS figures, it is 1623 now vs 1664 at the end of the year.

    Losing inventory in January is unusual. To me, this is confirmation backing all the anecdotal data from agents, other builders and buyers that we are looking at a sellers’ market this spring.

  49. 2049

    Enjoyed Your RE URL Justnoise, great detective work

    I’d add OVERPOPULATION is root of all economic problems, but stating the same thing you did, OVERPOPULATION= insane RE Prices.

    My Mug is Already Empty and Rinsed Out, Time to fill Your’s With Yuban and Read the Brief:

    “… What you should know as Wuhan coronavirus shows up in Snohomish County
    The mysterious infection has killed at least nine people and sickened hundreds in Asia, and now it’s come to the Puget Sound area, via a man who flew via a man who flew into Sea-Tac Airport last week. He’s in isolation at an Everett hospital. U.S. health experts expect more cases but say the public “should not be panicking.” Here’s what they know about the illness. As the outbreak threatens to wallop the global economy, China is warning that anyone who hides infections will be “forever nailed to history’s pillar of shame.” (Photo: Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times) …”

    SWE’s take: This alleged mysterious Chinese flu reminds me of the “horrifying bird flu scare”; all scare and no anomalous sickness epidemic…BTW, almost everyone gets Cornavirus in their lifetime, historically too:

    https://simplyhealth.today/14-natural-methods-to-treat-coronavirus/?utm_source=%2Bcoronavirus&utm_medium=14NaturalMethodstoTreatCoronavirus&utm_campaign=adw_us&msclkid=5041c7d88a341d8afb3399f0e6713d83

    “…Senators will hit the fast track today in the impeachment trial. Tempers flared in the wee hours this morning as Republicans blocked Democrats’ demands for more witnesses. President Donald Trump weighed in from the Swiss Alps, where he also rejected warnings that the world is barreling toward an environmental crisis. His words drew a verbal smack-back from Greta Thunberg and plenty of objections from fact-checkers. Check back for updates as the trial resumes at 10 a.m. Pacific time…”

    SWE’s Take: What the Hades does Climate Change theory have to do with impeachment in the Senate? And that 14 YO Greta “Climate Change Kid” has nothing to with “witnesses” against Trump….get a brain Seattle Times.

    “…A man was fatally shot inside Westlake Center in downtown Seattle yesterday. After the victim was found in a stairwell, the mall was closed for hours and the Seattle Center Monorail was halted. Police are seeking the shooter….”

    SWE’s Take: We had a few days with no violent deaths in the Seattle Area, then this “inner city Detroit” type murder happens in public…..this pathetic beat goes on…

    “…Get ready for rain, rain, rain and more rain. Weather wizards are keeping an eye out for flooding as four systems line up for a not-so-cheery parade through the Seattle area. At least we won’t be shivering like poor Florida, where iguanas are falling along with the temperatures…”

    SWE’s Take: Make sure your new home is high above the other lots, you are draining on them, not the other way around. Just that advice alone is likely $CASH$ maintenance savings in the bank….my lot is on top of the hill BTW. Sump Pumps in the crawl space [or basements] go for like $3000 plumber installed to code. Get one.

    “…So this is what an “emergency” looks like? Homelessness is suddenly the talk of the state Capitol, four years after local officials declared a state of civil emergency. But lawmakers seem to agree on only one thing: The governor’s idea won’t work. We still have no plan and no basic shared understanding of the problem, a frustrated Danny Westneat writes…”

    SWE’s take: Yes Seattle Times, Governor Inslee gets a grade F on homelessness in Seattle. Great article IMO BTW.

    “… To eat healthier in the new year, start by setting up your kitchen correctly. An efficient work and storage space makes it easier to prepare and eat healthy foods, put away groceries, store leftovers — and save time and stress…”

    SWE’s Take: Great Article Seattle Times. I invented a probiotic diet I don’t buy from NutriSystems for like $20-30/day costs [est], my cook at home costs are a few dollars a day. Just don’t eat any carbs or sugars at night, but maintain your low calorie diet [for me its about 1500 cal/day, with lots of fruits and vegetables]….my big meal is lunch, and pile on the meat and cheese then…LOL…I lost 50 lbs on this diet BTW. Dinner is just whole oats and 4 oz of milk. Period, no booze at night either, its sugars. Its almost impossible to get used to [took me 6 months], but it works like a charm…LOL

    “…The Seattle School Board will vote tonight on what’s become a flash point in the long-simmering fight over gifted education. Here’s what’s at stake districtwide as the board makes its final call on adopting a STEM program at Washington Middle School….”

    SWE’s take: STEM workers with no employer based experience/skills cannot replace high school kids with “on-the-job technical experience”. Boeing and MSFT need new CEO leadership to correct this misconception about “college STEM Poptarts” replacing on-the job skills/experience [even high school level] with Poptart STEMs [green engineers]….its simply a lie, they don’t teach source code in college, its a Trade Secret.

    “…Boeing projects the 737 MAX won’t be cleared to fly until midyear, months later than its previous estimate. That will likely extend the shutdown of production in Renton, and it means airlines will need to do without the MAX for almost the entire summer travel season. ..”

    SWE’s take: Layoffs on MAX 8 Boeing workers in horizon for 2020….Biz Journal alleges.

    “…Starbucks aims to cut its waste, water use and carbon emissions in half by 2030. The company yesterday outlined a plan that will change what you see in stores and on the menu….”

    SWE’s Take: OMG, no more working straws…LOL

    Good News: We’ve been mixing MASS plastics in our food for a 100+ years now, and its killed no one to my knowledge…canned food liners….LOL….that’s got to be 1000s of times more consumed plastics “mixed in” compared to toxins from our garbage…LOL

  50. 2050

    Bumble @2044 and Deerhawke @2048

    What I see in the sidebar says “updated hourly” but also says as of yesterday at 2 p.m.

    That said, as of right now, assuming those numbers are from yesterday at 2 p.m., I can get pretty close to the numbers showing if I remove the condo townhouses from condos and add those to SFH with the other townhomes. That would put all townhouses in with the SFH number and would give me 1,631 SFH vs the sidebar 1,642. I’ll try to catch the sidebar when it changes to try to get closer, but the numbers I get are pretty close.

    Of the 1,642 total SFH, 279 are townhomes and 97 of those are condo-townhomes.

    As we’ve discussed many times before, some townhouses are classified as condos, most notably when the lots are not subdivided per townhome. To most people this is a minor and not particularly relevant distinction other than the not condo townhomes rarely if ever have condo dues and the condo ones have dues of $400 a month give or take on average. Most not in Seattle townhomes are condo-townhomes and most in Seattle townhomes are SFH.

    I think they are just putting all townhomes on the SFH side. Best I can come up with and it’s pretty close as to the numbers. Close enough for the time difference and maybe duplicate listings as condo and residential to account for the margin that is “off”.

    Makes sense to put the townhomes all together and as to Actives, the majority are SFH, 182 of 279, so I think that’s what they are doing.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated by ARDELL in Real Time and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  51. 2051

    Costly HOA Fees and Parking

    Have to be added in too…Uber Rich Condos in Seattle can top $2000/mo just for HOA fees BTW. That doesn’t include comparable cost expensive monthly parking either…LOL

  52. 2052
    biliruben says:

    Does anyone know if Pierce breakouts are ever published, or just King and Snoho?

  53. 2053
    S-Crow says:

    Let’s get rid of sane lending altogether. Screw it. Just allow people to ask for money and give it to them. What could possibly go wrong.

    From Bankrate.com by Natalie Campisi: link: https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/cfpb-debt-to-income-rule/

    “CFPB moves to eliminate mortgage debt-to-income rule for borrowers”

    “Heeding the call of some of the largest mortgage lenders in the industry, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is moving to BACK the elimination of debt-to-income (DTI) requirements in mortgage underwriting.”

    Nothing in this industry surprises me. Find any way possible to juice the market with dead broke people and make them broke”r”. Churn churn churn.

    And remember, 43% ratios used today is based on gross, not net income. So, it’s really worse.

    Just unbelievable.

  54. 2054
    Blake says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2053
    Wow… That is insane!! I’d read that the CFPB was already “captured” by banking interests, but this confirms it. Look out!!!
    No rules…. Runaway train ahead!

  55. 2055
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2053

    Time to rename it the Consumer Financial Destruction Bureau.

  56. 2056
    OA says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2053

    Wow that’s crazy

  57. 2057
    Not Tim says:

    I think Tim probably left because he couldn’t stand listening to softwarengineer any more.

    Been visiting the blog since 2015 and this is my first comment. Gonna stop coming here from now on. Used to be useful insights and now it is just this one software guy talking to himself. Sad.

  58. 2058

    RE: David @ 2036
    Yes David

    But Poptart Rocket Scientists [SpaceX] are not comparable to seasoned/experienced NASA PhDs, not even close. What have they invented. Nothing. Its all regurgitated 60s engineering with cheap materials and cheap electronics mostly not made in America. The accident rate of SpaceX programs the last couple years is HORRIFYING compared to the developmental Apollo program and Shuttle inventions in the 60s.

    BTW, Bush basically “stealth” laid off most of the experienced/seasoned American Rocket NASA Scientists in the early 2000s….don’t blame Obama, but he supported it none the less. We used to gossip about how NASA is now a complete joke without skills and experience [the technical expertise was terrible the last couple decades], it was evident on CRITICAL outsourcing and Safety Engineering issues document requests.

    We need another Roswell reverse engineering surge in aerospace? LOL

  59. 2059

    Great Input from the Florida Cape Kennedy Periscope “David”

    Seattle RE is dependent on Seattle Boeing space contracts [which have dried up to almost nothing now]; so yes its relevant news for the bubble.

    Now, time to read the Brief….gulp all your Yuban down early, its a great wake up Remedy at work….LOL

    “… ‘Guns came out, and people started running’: Police hunt for suspects in Seattle mass shooting
    Police believe multiple people are responsible for yesterday’s gunfire on a busy downtown sidewalk that left one person dead and seven injured, including a child. Here’s the latest on the shooting, which was the third one in downtown Seattle in 24 hours. (Earlier yesterday, police shot and wounded a man in Belltown, and on Tuesday, a man was found dying from a gunshot wound inside Westlake Center.) Today, some commuters are steaming about the cost of getting an Uber or Lyft to take them away from yesterday’s rush-hour mayhem. (Photo: Amanda Snyder / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: Good gosh, this news story reminds me the “violin case” machine gun killings during organized crime gangsters of the 20s. BTW, my grandpa was a police detective in Minneapolis during Prohibition and machine gun Kelly shot him in the leg… be careful and watch your backs, think like a cop now.

    “…The Seattle School Board last night approved a controversial partnership that will phase out Highly Capable Cohort classes at Washington Middle School. The decision at a single school matters so much because it’s become a flash point in Seattle’s debate over gifted education…”

    SWE’s take: As decrepit as Seattle Public Schools are now, no wonder they hate rewards for innovations and intelligence…LOL

    “…The House’s lead impeachment prosecutor accused President Donald Trump of trying to cheat in the 2020 election as arguments began in the Senate trial yesterday. But senators, sleepy after a very long night, were fighting to stay awake and flouting the decorum. Trump, meanwhile, was setting a record for the most presidential tweets in a day. Here are yesterday’s highlights and what to expect next. Check back for updates when the trial resumes at 10 a.m. Pacific time…”

    SWE’s take: Articles of Impeachment from the House need evidence first and “flat table non-partisan” distribution of first hand witnesses on both sides of the argument before the Trial. That isn’t the job of the Senate Trial to fabricate them later if possible. Executive Privilege to block witnesses is a Constitutional power of the Executive Branch and the House can’t call it absurd. I know, this is basic Trial requirements all attorneys know.

    “…Boeing workers’ confidence is shaken, and “my job is to restore it,” new CEO Dave Calhoun said yesterday after fielding difficult questions from employees about the company’s culture. Calhoun also spoke about the 737 MAX’s future and ruled out layoffs at the Renton plant that assembles it…”

    SWE’s take: How about furloughs with no back pay then?….I heard that term tossed around lately by Boeing….same thing as stealth layoffs in my book…

    “… Computer science education programs increase access for students in underserved communities, with the goal of growing digital-native youth into tomorrow’s leaders. See how robots are helping kids embrace STEM…”

    SWE’s Take: Examples of large wage growth, innovations [not regurgitated Windows 95/98 S/W inventions] with raw data please….cat got your tongue?

    “…Fore! Two big virtual-golf gaming lounges have debuted on the Eastside. And Edmonds’ food scene is getting lively, thanks to a man who set out to create community through food. Lastly, let’s head south to White Center for street tacos you’ll dream about for days afterward…”

    SWE’s Take: How much to play the video game golf and gobble cheap street tacos…$20/30 a piece?

    “…Seattle-area investors led by a Japanese billionaire in 1992 announce they want to buy the Mariners, thwarting a plan to move the team to Tampa, Fla. The biggest investor is Hiroshi Yamauchi, head of Nintendo in Japan. Major League Baseball cites a policy opposing foreign investment, and getting approval takes about six months. The sale is completed June 9, and the new owners declare the Mariners “Safe at Home,” ending 11 years of ownership by Jeff Smulyan of Indianapolis. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)…”

    SWE’s Take: We even outsourced the Mariners to Japan….LOL

    Good News: The boring impeachment news is getting stale. No one cares now…LOL

  60. 2060
    JustNoise says:

    RE: OA @ 2056RE: Justme @ 2055RE: Blake @ 2054RE: S-Crow @ 2053

    Wonder whether this will factor in:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fico-changes-could-lower-your-credit-score-11579780800

    Fair Isaac Corp., creator of FICO scores, will soon start scoring consumers with rising debt levels and those who fall behind on loan payments more harshly. The changes are an about-face from recent years, when FICO and credit-reporting companies made changes that helped increase scores for some consumers. Lenders in recent years had asked the credit-reporting and scoring companies to help them find more borrowers. But lenders are also trying to balance the need to expand loan volume with a rising concern about the longevity of the economic recovery and whether credit scores are making some consumers appear more creditworthy than they are.

  61. 2061
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2053
    Yay!!!! Let me know if it passes so I can hold my investments longer.

  62. 2062

    RE: Erik @ 2059
    Welcome Back Erik

    The harassment troll activity has died down this week on Seattle Bubble. If those bums start commenting criticisms of other’s comments without revealing who they are, what their credentials are and why they don’t contribute anything in the comments. They won’t reply BTW.

    They invent undocumented comment limits on Seattle Bubble, but although they allow multiple comments from those they agree with…they attack with an impeachment axe anything that contradicts their flimsy positions…..BTW, the impeachment hearings are boring too [we knew the outcome before it started], many TV stations are replacing impeachment coverage with soap operas instead, TV viewership rises…LOL

  63. 2063

    Time to Smile, The Corona-virus is Shutting China Down or a complete Exaggeration? Swallow some vitamin C with your Yuban and read the Brief:

    “… How can Seattle curb crime downtown? Mass shooting brings new urgency
    In one sense, this week’s shooting in downtown Seattle that killed a woman and injured seven other people was shocking, with gunfire erupting as crowds of commuters tried to make their way home. But in another way, it was less surprising: The area has long been beset by low-level crime and intermittent violence, and permanent solutions have been elusive. Now the pressure is really on for Seattle’s leaders, who are describing some of the changes ahead. (Photo: Steve Ringman / The Seattle Times)
    MORE ABOUT THE SHOOTING

    One suspect has been booked into jail, and officers are hunting for two others. Here’s the latest on the suspects, the victims and the investigation, in which officers recovered 20 shell casings from three guns.
    Downtown business owners and workers are scared and feeling powerless, after this week’s shooting cast a glare on the crime problems they’ve been seeing…”

    SWE’s take: Living in an “inner city Detroit” violence atmosphere day after day is stressing us all out IMO. Good reporting Seattle Times.

    “…Look up! Boeing’s massive-winged 777X will take its first flight this morning, weather permitting. It’s a jaw-dropper, with the biggest jet engines ever built and wings that are so long, they have to fold to fit at standard airport gates. The plane should take off in Everett around 10 a.m. and land at Boeing Field around 3 p.m. Watch for updates…”

    SWE’s Take: 777-X sales figures aren’t available to date, so this is wishful thinking indeed.

    “…Can you quarantine 36 million people? That’s what China is attempting with travel bans as the Wuhan coronavirus spreads. Meanwhile, officials now say a Snohomish County man with coronavirus came into close contact with at least 43 people. As health officials get a handle on who the illness is hitting hardest, they’re explaining why this isn’t a global emergency — although it may be headed that way…”

    SWE’s Take: Avoid touching and breathing in public….that will stop the horrifying flu. LOL…how the Hades do you do that at work, school or errands? Eat less nutrition-less white rice and more whole grain brown rice? Increase your immune response, get more sleep? No one knows.

    “…Free or discounted college? State lawmakers made national headlines with their plan, but they might have trouble paying for it. Without tax changes, Washington could be several million dollars short of meeting its promise each school year…”

    SWE’s Take: Ya can’t spend money to fix it, if you don’t have the money….LOL…check out homelessness in Seattle if you don’t believe me. IMO, reducing the public school budget can’t hurt a decrepit American school system [#35 in the world BTW], its good money after bad to date.

    “…Cea Merritt looks out from Saltwater State Park in Des Moines, hoping to spot orcas. Saltwater and other state parks could soon be free to visitors; lawmakers are looking at ditching the $30-per-year Discover Pass. But there’s heartburn over where the money for parks would come from. (Photo: Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: At least the crowded parking lots are thinned out with the park fees. Otherwise, ya can’t go to parks at all with full parking lots…LOL

    “…About 40 million Americans’ credit scores may drop significantly under changes being made to the FICO system. But if you have a high score, it could rise even more. Overall, about 110 million people will see their scores change in either direction. Here’s a crash course on credit, and tips to make your score shine…”

    SWE’s Take: When ya live debt free like SWE an 832 credit rating is a piece of cake….LOL

    “… Ocean acidification is damaging the shells of young Dungeness crab in the Northwest, surprising new research shows. Scientists didn’t expect this until much later in the century, and it’s raising concerns about the food chain…”

    SWE’s Take: Its root cause is “acidic” sewage rinse pouring into coastal waters from OVERPOPULATION. The Orcas is similarly being killed off to extinction too. Heavy elements in the whales’ blood proves it too.

    Good News: Read the 1979 Anne Rice book called “Feast of the Saints”…it tracks the history of African American slaves in New Orleans in 1840….they freed 18,000 black slaves then in New Orleans [Paris was modeled as New Orleans and France had no slavery then] and not only were the inter-breeding with the French “white” aristocrats; the rainbow diversity created an Industrial Revolution “Super race” of highly intelligent and good looking copper skinned, blonde haired, blue eyed folks that were easily stealing all the French business jobs…LOL…MLK’s Dream IOWs.

    “…

  64. 2064
    Lira says:

    Hi! Quick question. Is there a way for a 6k sqft lot designated SFH to have 2 houses built on it? Does subdivision work? Or building 2 houses sharing a common wall as a single structure, them separate? Anything (else)?

    Thank you!

  65. 2065

    Continuing my week to week tracking of active inventory in King County while I can. Moving this a bit to Friday morning as Friday morning is likely the top number for a week moving forward into the new season.

    One change is I am showing the breakout of townhomes in both Condo and Residential so that those trying to reconcile numbers from other sources can find the balance as to where that source is choosing to put those townhomes. Seems most are subtracting the townhomes from SFH …OR adding the condo townhomes TO SFH. By having this breakout you should be able to track inventory a bit better and choose where you want to put the townhomes.

    One thing I do know is you can’t take a townhome selling at $825,000 and a new house selling at $1,600,000 and add them together and divide by two and call that the median or average price of an area. They are apples and oranges. If you are actively looking to buy or sell you have to run the numbers for your specific area. You can do this fairly easily on a small scale by putting the Elementary School name in the Redfin search box and then switch to sold in 6 months or sold in one year. No stats are perfect and so using that method for what you are looking to buy or sell will be accurate enough to your purpose.

    The goal is always to give enough information so that people can do their own due diligence. Something about teaching a man to fish. :)

    Total was 2,388 on 12/31
    1/7 it is 2,251
    1/18 is 2,224
    1/24 is 2,193

    Condos were 632 on 12/31
    1/7 they are 576
    1/18 is 579
    1/24 is 575 (102 of these are townhouses)

    Residential was 1,756 on 12/31
    1/7 is 1,675
    1/18 is 1,645
    1/24 is 1,618 (195 of these are townhouses)

    I am doing Inventory on a regular basis as I can’t run these numbers in hindsight like I can Sold and Median Sold Prices. So if I don’t mark them down somewhere like here, I can’t later go back to get them. I will do the full breakdown again even though the numbers haven’t changed significantly overall.

    Condo
    0 bedrooms 27 now 26
    1 bedroom 184 now 157
    2 bedroom 294 now 260
    3 bedroom 92 now 98
    4+ bedroom 35 now 34

    Residential 1.756
    0 bedroom 27 now 25
    1 bedroom 17 now 17
    2 bedroom 209 now 195
    3 bedroom 503 now 440
    4 bedroom+ 1,000 now 940

    3 bedroom 503 now 440
    352 of the 503 were built between 1900 and 2018
    316 of the 440 were built between 1900 and 2018

    4 bedroom + 1,000 now 940
    588 of the 1,000 were built between 1900 and 2018
    547 of the 940 were built between 1900 and 2018

    412 of the 1000 were built in 2019 or later including 137 that are Presales
    393 of the 940 were built in 2019 or later including 102 that are Presales

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  66. 2066
    Eastsider says:

    US Treasury 10yr hit 1.679% this morning, the lowest since early October. Expect 30yr mortgage rates to follow.

  67. 2067
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2060
    Thanks SWE, I take predicting bubbles seriously and the fools on here were saying things that were false and wouldn’t listen to reason. They muddy the truth and were trying to confuse the facts.

    I heard impeachment hoax lite is getting pretty boring because there really isn’t a strong case. The radical left is hurting the Democratic Party and that’s not good for America.

  68. 2068
    Lulu says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2063
    SARS_2 fear.

  69. 2069
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2063 – They are dropping. Rates have to or it’s going to negatively impact housing and serial refinancing. Huge volume of refi’s happened June through Oct. this past year after dropping from over 5% to bottoming around 3.5%’ ish.

    Currently, seeing 30 fixed yr now at 3.375% @ .125 pts.

  70. 2070

    RE: S-Crow @ 2066

    It is now 2020. I think you meant dropping from 2018 and not “this past year”?

  71. 2071
    Eastsider says:

    By S-Crow @ 2066:

    Rates have to or it’s going to negatively impact housing and serial refinancing.

    Rates don’t have to drop to help housing. Nationwide sales have been strong and inventory has been declining. CalculatedRisk blog has regular updates on regional/national housing.

    The reason rates are dropping is due to fear of recession IMO.

  72. 2072
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 2068:

    By S-Crow @ 2066:

    The reason rates are dropping is due to fear of recession IMO.

    Rates are dropping because of monetary policy. I actually heard Mnuchin discussing 100 year bonds.

    100 YEARS; of low-interest bonds. Even Trump commented on this as a way to unwind debt.

    The Government cannot afford to pay high interest on the debt.

    Seems to me, low-interest debt is here to stay. I’d take out interest only loans if I were buying today.

    I cannot see the Government letting asset prices fall EVER. Else what do they have to keep the conomy up? They certainly don’t seem to have higher interest on your cash to keep people afloat.

    On average, your dollar loses 50% of its value every 17 years. A 30-year mortgage is a good investment:

    $100k today = ~$25k in 30 years.
    $400k house today (@ 3% inflation only increase in value) = $971k

  73. 2073
    David says:

    By Erik @ 2064:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2060
    Thanks SWE, I take predicting bubbles seriously and the fools on here were saying things that were false and wouldn’t listen to reason. They muddy the truth and were trying to confuse the facts.

    I heard impeachment hoax lite is getting pretty boring because there really isn’t a strong case. The radical left is hurting the Democratic Party and that’s not good for America.

    All I have seen in this Scampechment are constant complaints that Trump is doing what his job description allows.

    The ONLY people affirmatively shown to have given and taken money from overseas sources are Democrats. Apparently not understanding that Trump is a co-equal of the ENTIRE Congress. Trump is equal to the combined intellect of over 600 congresspeople.

    Also, the only ones consistently, over and over, being credibly accused and convicted of sex crimes are Democrats. Up to ad including about a week ago.

  74. 2074
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 2069 – Rates were plummeting across the board in developed countries this week.
    US 10yr -7.5%
    Germany 10yr -60%
    UK 10yr -9.3%
    Australia 10yr -8.4%
    Japan 10yr went from ve to -ve
    This week’s drop has nothing to do with monetary policy. A lot to do with recession fear. Housing was not the best investment in recent history. DOW/S&P/Nasdaq easily beat RE.

  75. 2075
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2071 – Yes, drop in rates was due to pessimism about economic outlooks (both domestic and worldwide). Investors shifting to the relative safety of bonds.

    Lets face it folks, we’re back to the days when a home is a place to live, not a get rich quick scheme. Been this way for a while now. Yes, even Seattle. :)

  76. 2076
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2067

    The huge volume of refi’s and rates dropping did happen last year ( 2019). Rates went UP in 2018 to hit 5% in Nov/Dec of said year. Please refer to Freddie/Fannie Rate Surveys.

    At that time (Fall of 2018), there was chatter in the Title & Escrow world that I happen to reside in regarding slower sales biz and low refi activity. It was very noticeable in Nov/ Dec 2018. As I said, rates did not drop until last year (January 2019 when they started the pendulum down). Refi activity and sales increased as rates kept dropping to around 3.5% 30 yr fixed last year (2019) to the present. My Escrow business was slammed with new business when the rates dropped. Felt like 2006-07 all over again in terms of volume.

    I’ve mentioned that rates need to drop to keep a floor under prices and it feels like the move has begun in earnest (see commentary about the Bond market). The mortgage industry has already reported that origination expectations are going to be tempered this year (2020). However, if rates drop further to the 3% realm (not withstanding paying substantial points to get that today) housing will benefit. If rates move way up like they did in late 2018, with our existing housing prices still sky high, housing will suffer. Interest rates will have less impact on higher end homes with well qualified buyers that have very high incomes—which is nothing new. However, the majority of people are not in that boat and rates matter.

    People need to ask themselves why rates are dropping.

  77. 2077
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2073

    Agree. In your first comment I thought you were saying rates dropped from 5% in 2019 meaning rates were at 5% in 2019 and then dropped. I have week to week rates and by January of 2019 they were 4 25%.

  78. 2078

    RE: S-Crow @ 2066
    Yes S-Crow

    The FOX Business Channel reported yesterday [it excludes impeachment hearing coverage thank God] a 3.6% avg 30 year mortgage interest rate is the new norm now…forever? The raw data yesterday has the 10 yr interest rate now down to 1.86%. This is day to day tracking and it changes YOY as we know in a more stable predictable manner.

    My safe interest “401K” type retirement $CASH$ is down to 2.2.% YTD BTW, it got as high as 2.8% about a year ago; so I took a 21% punch in the stomach on interest income. Not to worry, I factored that into my retirement planning, everyone needs to save more for retirement now….we have no choice.

  79. 2079

    I Already Had My Whole Grain Probiotics [Shredded wheat with no added carbs], ground sesame seed dose [prevents arthritis I don’t have to date], milk, probiotic honey and flax oil….washed it down with two mugs of Yuban, time to read the Brief:

    I should sell this diet, call it the SWE weight loss plan…LOL

    “… Shooting brings new urgency: How to curb crime in downtown Seattle?
    In one sense, the shooting Wednesday that killed a woman and injured seven other people was shocking, with gunfire erupting as commuters tried to make their way home. But in another way, it was less surprising: The area has long been beset by low-level crime and violence. Now the pressure is really on for Seattle’s leaders, who are describing some of the changes ahead. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: I beg to differ on “low-level crime and violence”….almost daily rates of horrifying murders is not low level at all in my book. Its the new norm. Welcome to the new “inner city Detroit”, Seattle with 155,000 homeless victims in the State.

    “…Public-health officials aren’t disclosing where the patient went after his return to Washington state. Instead, officials are opting to contact people individually who are believed to have been near the man during that time. A call center has also been set up for the public to ask questions. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: The numbers of coronavirus 2020 to date deaths in China is now 800; the annual flu deaths in China alone per year historically is 30,000…and it also appears the coronavirus isn’t new at all and most of us in America too already had it. Let’s not jump to conclusions with Chinese allegations. This topic is brand new.

    “…For the Seattle area, the previous decade was a period of tremendous change. Newly released data shows which neighborhoods were affected by it much more than others. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: The picture of the empty train and bus depot says it all….where’s all the public transit “Waldos”? I see empty buses and trains all over Seattle too, some of the buses belch black smoke too. If we lose our cars Seattle is screwed.

    “…This tax season could be chaotic — and disappointing for taxpayers expecting a hefty refund. Congress passed tax breaks late last year that will require the IRS and software providers to revise forms at the last minute, and taxpayers may have to amend their past returns to get the breaks. Here’s what to watch for. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: My federal taxes went down so much under Trump I was forced to increase my take home pay $CASH$ in 2019 by about 12% in my monthly income sources. The tax forms changed in 2018, but 2019 was a repetitive administration year to 2018….got that 1040 form out myself in less than an hour, it was so simple. This helped make up for my $CASH$ interest rate decreasing under low mortgage rates. Even at that I expect a decent sized refund for 2019. God help us all if the Dems destroy this “Phase One” tax chart.

    “…Shannon Vargas slept in a tent with her kids, pretending “that it was fun, that we were camping.” Then they graduated to a hotel while the struggling single mom worked at a restaurant near Chicago. Near closing time one night, a customer got “a nudge from God,” pulled out her credit card and scrawled a message on her bill: “Because everybody needs a little help sometimes.” The not-so-little help is changing Vargas’ life. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: We need more charity and less government sucking us dry. Great example Seattle Times.

    Good News: My MLK celebration included reading my new black history book by Anne Rice, “The Feast of Saints” 1979….the African American slaves were not only innovative and highly intelligent in 1840…they “self-taught” themselves in New Orleans how to read and write English with no public schools. They moved on up to become business leaders gifted in literature [many attended European colleges] and business skills in the Industrial Revolution [they easily stole jobs from the white Caucasion American French BTW…LOL]. That could really lower our property taxes Bubbleheads…LOL
    This book should be mandatory in our public schools today…

  80. 2080
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 2071:

    RE: David @ 2069 – Rates were plummeting across the board in developed countries this week.
    US 10yr -7.5%
    Germany 10yr -60%
    UK 10yr -9.3%
    Australia 10yr -8.4%
    Japan 10yr went from ve to -ve
    This week’s drop has nothing to do with monetary policy. A lot to do with recession fear. Housing was not the best investment in recent history. DOW/S&P/Nasdaq easily beat RE.

    Who cares what is happening in other countries in re interest rates.

    Rates are being manipulated in the US in order to contain the growing debt. Else they would not be talking about 100 year bonds.

    The Democrats ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS PUSH PUSH PUSH recessions during incumbent Republican administrations

  81. 2081
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: David @ 2077

    Yes. Much harder for the Democrats to win when the economy is good.

    If the DOW hits 30,000, I think it’s game over.

  82. 2082
    David says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 2072:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2071 – Yes, drop in rates was due to pessimism about economic outlooks (both domestic and worldwide). Investors shifting to the relative safety of bonds.

    Lets face it folks, we’re back to the days when a home is a place to live, not a get rich quick scheme. Been this way for a while now. Yes, even Seattle. :)

    I made $125k in gains on my primary home over the past 3 years when I sold in July. You were saying…?

  83. 2083
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: David @ 2079 – Congrats. That’s great.

  84. 2084

    The Rain Has Stopped, I See Blue Sky Today From My Office Windows…Grab Your Yuban, Smile and Read the Brief:

    “…For the first time, both the Republican and Democratic parties will abide by the results of Washington’s presidential primary. And with the March 10 vote coming a week after Super Tuesday, the state could play a significant part in determining which Democrat faces President Donald Trump in the fall. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: I watch the news, the Presidential Race is over before Washington’s Votes are finalized.

    “…Trash-filled Bothell home, too hazardous to tour, attracts 17 offers and fetches high price…”

    SWE’s take: Maybe a rich Chinese Dupe bought bit? LOL

    “…• 5 of the Seattle area’s most changed neighborhoods: We crunched the data on population, income, jobs…”

    SWE’s Take: Never assume high aerospace and IT jobs automatically exist “flat table” as before, compared to the heydays in the past. It all changes fast, ask for the “specific” raw data to date. Use independent employee job openings documented, like the website INDEED….never trust verbal allegations on beginning pay in Seattle with no experience

    Good News: The trustworthy MSM assures us verbally that the FAA will certify the MAX 8 by mid-year. Albeit that news bit died out quick days later, when the harsh reality of “Peter Screaming Wolf in error all the time” creates an atmosphere of total skepticism. ..let’s hope I guessed wrong…LOL

  85. 2085

    Unexpected MASS Homelessness Cleanup Bills Added to Our Local Taxes Soon?

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-homeowners-billed-homeless-camp-143111590.html

    King County Property Tax estimates out by Valentines Day…I let the bubble know how much my bill went up. Even my HOA fees went up in 2020.

  86. 2086
    Joe says:

    Stopped at an open house today on the East Side. I don’t have much to say about the home, except that it appeared overpriced by $200k or so, but the realtor did say something interesting. He said there is going to be a huge pickup in listings shortly. He says tons of sellers are getting ready for this Spring, and he expects the listing rush to start sometime in February.

  87. 2087
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 2083
    Ha! That is true for all markets I know of this time of year. Bottom of the market was December 2018.

    The words you use and your thoughts will not change what prices re gonna do. Eastside is about to get really expensive as amazon and google continue to expand there. Get in while it’s still cheap!

  88. 2088
    Eastsider says:

    US Treasury 10yr yield continues to plummet Sunday evening and it is now at 1.64%. There is a lot of stress (or panic?) in the market.

  89. 2089

    Not to Worry, Even if RE Prices Are Peaked Constant or Declining the next Decade, I’ve Met Buyers That Look Me Straight in the Face and Tell Me That’s Always When They Buy Anyway

    LOL…I’m on their side anyway too, what the Hades, in a couple decades from now its all water down the stream anyway, its constantly changing, albeit $CASH$ stored in stocks [DOW down 400 pts day to day BTW] and RE to some degree too, all “float eventually upstream”…..actually the Stephen King’s “It” quote is “they all float down stream”…after Penny the clown does his thing…LOL

    Your Hand is Shaking Now in “Chinese Coronavirus Fear” causing a day to day American stock market crash today they say, Don’t Spill Your Yuban [its also tied to RE prices trending then too] and Read the Brief:

    “…The Puget Sound area is seeing ripple effects as China takes drastic measures to stop the spread of coronavirus. Two UW students who traveled to Wuhan are waiting to hear whether they’re infected, and fears of the illness drove Sammamish to cancel its Lunar New Year Celebration. Face masks are selling out in some places. Should you grab one? Here’s a Q&A…”

    SWE’s take: Let’s put our “tin foil hats” away for now and look at the “Chinese Coronavirus Fear” in All Its Possibilities. I’ve been thinking about this sudden health care scare “timing” milestone and RE price predictions with stock crash. Hong Kong is driving China nuts lately and so has North Korea sanctions….China looks like the repressive monster now stifling Capitalism and free speech…..this would be a great distraction on these messes for China, while China can reel in human rights and internet freedoms in the name of fighting the “phony” Coronavirus as a mask? Or its real and we’re all gonna die? LOL…who knows? Let’s gather more CDC history on the fear first, like can we cure it easily or perhaps the Coronavirus is naturally/rapidly mutating innocuous [viruses do this BTW] to co-exist in our bodies without killing the host [us].

    “…Boeing’s shuttered 737 MAX plant has another problem: falcons. A peregrine falcon family has been nesting in the Renton factory, with offspring sometimes falling onto the factory floor. Now it’s time to evict them, but that’s harder than it sounds. Peregrines, who can fly half as fast as a commercial jet, are no ordinary creatures. And speaking of jets, enjoy these photos and video from the first flight of the 777X over the weekend….”

    SWE’s take: Spooky dark empty factories are notorious for strange animal noises like vagrants, rats and stray cats….they resemble empty foreclosed homes in Seattle.

    “…The impeachment trial resumes today. Democrats are insisting that John Bolton testify, after a book by the former national security adviser gave an explosive account of strings that President Donald Trump attached to aid for Ukraine. (Here are five takeaways from the book.) And did Trump threaten the lead impeachment manager, Rep. Adam Schiff? Amid the furor, let’s pause to check facts on that and other accusations…”

    SWE’s Take: What have political bent books to do with court evidence? Using that unusable evidence could make any trial “never ending” and still eventually will not impeach Trump anyway.

    “…Scott Morrow has fought homelessness for decades, helping found Seattle’s tent cities with an iron-clad philosophy: The people living there would govern themselves. But while he managed a Seattle camp, more people were kicked out than housed. Depending on whom you talk to, Morrow is either a “muddy saint” or an authoritarian…”

    SWE’s Take: Since his success rate is a big question mark, it brings up the next question, how can this possible village idiot’s anomalous historic behavior be the savior of homelessness?

    “…The Duwamish people were here first. Should Seattleites pay them rent? Thousands of volunteers are doing it, to the tune of $20,000 a month that helps the tribe serve its members. It’s a start, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes…”

    SWE’s take: Use this philosophy to nth degree then, the longer you were an American citizen, the less rent you owe the American Indian…LOL…its like buying RE, get it earlier when it was cheap…LOL

    “…Washington’s presidential primary is no longer just a “beauty contest.” The move to March 10 means this one will really count, and the candidates are paying attention to Washingtonians. With a week left until the Iowa caucuses, here are the big factors to watch and a look at where the candidates stand on key issues…”

    SWE’s take: FOX News polls allege that any of the 10 dem primary contenders will beat Trump….LOL….how come the dems don’t even believe that?

    “…”Young people should understand … terrible things can happen.” Auschwitz survivors today are sounding warnings as they return to the camp to mark the 75th anniversary of its liberation. And the story has emerged of a Polish hero who volunteered to go to Auschwitz — and warned the world about the Nazi death machine…”

    SWE’s take: German Engineers have taken over almost all the manufacturing in the EU to date and Airbus is steam rolling Seattle Boeing now [2:1 in sales I heard to date]…Germany belongs to NATO to fight Russia, yet buys all their natural gas from Russia, they have for decades BTW.

    GOOD NEWS SELLERS: “…An unexpected gift: Millions of homeowners can save money by refinancing their loans, now that the average interest rate for 30-year mortgages has fallen. The sharp drop surprised experts. Here’s what to consider before you refi…” Your home is a $CASH$ machine to afford like burgers on the table, who cares if the interest payments got extended a few decades now. Food is better than retirement…LOL

    “…Seattleite Audrey Bastian, 28, pinched her pennies as a teacher. Then she got a high-tech job and encountered what you can only call a good problem: what to do with her new money. She reached out for free advice in a Money Makeover and now feels “like a weight has been lifted off my shoulders,” after receiving advice that could help other young workers. Here’s how to apply for free financial planning. ..”

    SWE’s take: So how much “new money” in $CASH$ did the Milenial save, $500??? LOL

    “… Your job offer won’t budge on salary, but that doesn’t have to be a deal-breaker. You can still come out on top with significant perks to enhance your work and personal life. Here are six things to negotiate other than salary…”

    SWE’s take: I’ll tell ya a deal breaker, avg beginning Seattle salaries so small ya can’t afford the rent living by yourself…welcome to Tent City…LOL

    “… If legislators really want to help Washington’s gifted students, as they should, they should require universal screening and training for teachers, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. And readers, including Duff McKagan of Guns N’ Roses, are at a boiling point about downtown Seattle crime and city leaders’ inaction. Read their letters and share your thoughts at letters@seattletimes.com…”

    SWE’s Take: Give up on Public Schools, educate them right in a good community college later….its the only workable plan and its much cheaper than private high schools for the Uber Rich Elite. We want our $CASH$ now, not burned in the ‘historical” Public School property tax bon fire [we’re currently #35 in the World ranking of public schools].

  90. 2090
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2085

    And yet, the FRB (Fed) keeps letting their holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) roll off (meaning: not replacing) as they get paid down, to the tune of up to 20B per month. One may wonder why the FRB is doing that, and the answer is that FRB is trying to put the brakes on the housing bubble part2.

    At some point people may realize that GSE MBS is NOT guaranteed by the US Government. Then it will get “interesting”, and the interest rates for mortgages ought to rise and diverge farther from the USG 10-year rate. The only thing that is keeping mortgages cheap is the perception that the debt is USG guaranteed.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/23/feds-repos-drop-to-oct-level-t-bills-surge-but-mbs-fall-and-total-assets-decline-further/

  91. 2091
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 2087 – Well, as history tells us, not until they need it to be.

    Wolff street is not about economics. It is about politics sublimated as economics. The readership is its own victim. But good luck.

  92. 2092
    Longtime Listener First Time Caller says:

    The readership is its own victim… thats a rich comment to see posted on this site.

  93. 2093
  94. 2094
    hsea says:

    Does anyone have an update on Tim Ellis ? It’s a new year and no new post . Just wondering . Long time reader . Has Tim moved on from this project ?

  95. 2095
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Joe @ 2083

    That realtor is describing a typical spring market. He might as well say that this spring we will see longer days and more sunshine.

    Meanwhile 2020 so far shows inventory dropping. The Redfin inventory tracker on this site shows us at 1600 right now vs 1839 one month ago this hour.

    Normally inventory is flat or rises during January. In years when inventory dropped in January (2012 and 2017) there was a substantial jump in prices.

  96. 2096

    My Yuban Can Is Half Empty Now, Time to Stock Up and Gulp Yuban, While Reading the Brief

    “… Swedish Medical Center workers hit the picket lines
    Nurses, caregivers and staff are picketing this morning in heavy rain outside Swedish campuses in the Seattle area. The three-day strike at Swedish’s seven facilities comes after months of bargaining over a contract. Swedish and its patients were already feeling the impact last night, when two ERs closed in preparation. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times) …”

    SWE’s take: I don’t know how health care insurance can go any higher, yet these folks work like Hades for burger flipper wages [i.e., $15/hr]…I know, I pinch hit volunteer for them and spend much time [days/mo] just getting the billing and forms properly administered for just one severely disabled adult. There isn’t much Medicare money left after just billing costs…let alone protective payee management cost just to get the paperwork done. Ya see, I haven’t really retired, I work hard too.

    “…How does the Wuhan coronavirus spread, and how can you avoid it? Can packages mailed from China carry it here? As the number of cases worldwide tops 2,700 (mostly in China), we’re answering your questions. More:…”

    SWE’s take: Not to worry, American stocks shooting back up today…actually the trending up is more reliable, its occurring in a smaller delta, which is better than a large delta anomaly or fear. Oil is down to $52/bbl, so $2.50/gal gas here we come? LOL

    “…A West Seattle woman is dead after telling her housemate to move out, uncomfortable with the physical affection he was showing her children, prosecutors say. Solomon Whitt is charged with first-degree murder after allegedly attacking Jana Layman from behind, strangling her and throwing her down the stairs before staging the scene to make it look like an accident….”

    SWE’s Take: Folks in Seattle don’t like sharing a roof together, this time the room mate got murdered/shoved down the stairs to fatal injury. “Inner City Detroit” violence is almost daily in Seattle.

    “…Can the White House keep John Bolton from testifying in the impeachment trial? The president’s lawyers are fighting hard amid the growing possibility that allegations in the former national security adviser’s book could help push the trial into next week…”

    SWE’s take: The witness subpoena was not given to Bolton before Trial. Game over. Normal trial rules and all attorneys know it too. I know, change all the “Speedy” Trial Rules after the Trial begins to drag it on and on for a year….LOL….BTW, this strategy is a complete failure to date for the dems IMO. Trump’s approval in the polls rose about 6 points the last couple weeks due to the impeachment delays IMO….his campaign war chest is growing geometrically and exponentially. Trump now leads all dem primary candidates for President in the polls suddenly too…LOL

    “…Amazon workers risk losing their jobs, but they’re citing a “moral responsibility” to speak out about the company’s approach to the climate crisis. Hundreds of employees put their names on pointed critiques in the past few days, defying a ban on unapproved external communications….”

    SWE’s take: Bezos puts his red MAGA hat on when it comes to Climate Change….LOL

    “…It’s officially tax season. The IRS started working on returns yesterday. There are some changes to know about, from divorce and the standard deduction to filing online and the new W-4 form….”

    SWE’s take: Give me 4 more years with the Phase II Trump tax tables. Makes the cuts bigger and permanent too. Unless the dems get a chance to destroy it and “tax and spend” instead with larger tax revenue tax tables for the middle class.

    “…Microsoft is showing strong leadership with its bold pledge to cut future — and past — climate pollution. Substantial efforts by companies are critical as the global-warming crisis intensifies, writes The Seattle Times editorial board….”

    SWE’s take: The Redmond MSFT plant alone clogs our freeways totally, adds growth sewer rinse to the coastlands in MASS GROWING OVERPOPULATION amounts [with their never ending thirst for low wage foreign H-1Bs and their chain migrations] and they claim they’re the Climate Change angels? Try” hypocritical devils”, a better title.

    Good News: If ya bought a new $25K gasoline Rio with no front bumper, just a “HUGE” crunch zone hole for radiator cooling instead, the $30K electric Rios have the crunch holes covered up now [with flimsy sheet metal or plastic? LOL]. The Lexus is worse, I could push that crunch zone easily in with my foot and do 1000s of dollars worth of damage…LOL…BTW, I’m not picking on Rios, almost all new cars have “crunch zones” now and the prices went up to boot…LOL

  97. 2097

    Boeing Stock Up Today

    The company got a $20B loan. Perhaps the layoffs are delayed now? I’m sure Boeing doesn’t want to lose all its seasoned experienced workers, since there’s hardly any left now…LOL

  98. 2098
    Boater says:

    @Deerhawk
    @Ardell
    @S-Crow
    You three should start your own blog/forum and link it here or potentially see if Tim will sell this place to you. You each offer useful distinct insight from your professions. You’re all able to talk with civility towards others. Breaking up the responsibilities between three of you would lighten the load to something manageable without interfering with your day jobs.

  99. 2099
    Joe says:

    RE: Justme @ 2087

    Huh, GSE securities and underlying home mortgages are not guaranteed by the government? That would go against popular belief. Is it true?

  100. 2100
    Eastsider says:

    2019 October Case-Shiller Index is out.

    Seattle NSA index changes:
    October/September -.3%
    September/August -.3%
    2019 October/2018 October 2.5%

  101. 2101
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Boater @ 2094

    There are some of us who would definitely consider taking over and reinvigorating the Seattle Bubble. The question is how to get the Tim’s attention. He doesn’t seem to read the blog anymore. Anybody have a phone number for him?

  102. 2102

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2091

    This is true and was my first thought as well when I read that. But note that the viable listings are already pending since I posted inventory last Friday. By the time Friday comes around again the active inventory will be some brand new ones but also you have to add back the ones that went pending in those 7 days to get to real inventory.

    This January no different than most over the last several years. We start with nothing. Zero. We being agents and buyers even though the stats will say there are some. Having already considered anything that is already listed, we mostly just watch the new listings. I liked only one of those. It came on market Friday early evening and went straight to pending with no inspection yesterday. Many I didn’t like went pending as well.

    Within that, one came on but it is a new construction development of almost 30 houses. So that one is 30 and all won’t show in active inventory nor will that listing leave active status until all 30 are sold. So it will look like it’s sitting on market a long time.

    But so far in January it is playing out the same as most every year for the last several years. Nothing worth buying on Jan 1, two good ones for the month by my standards that will go pending immediately and several others that I wouldn’t recommend, but 90% of those go Pending as well though often to Pending Inspection first. The best ones go P vs PI in short order.

    Will the % of multiple offers increase this year? There will and likely always are, more in January and February, but that tapers off as inventory shows as 2 good ones in January and then 4 good ones in February and then 6 to 8 good ones by March increasing through May and then starts traveling back down the hill of peak inventory. Though last year due to March snow and also interest rates the peak was later.

    For the most part my clients are only looking at Primary to strong Secondary markets, so the long standing inventory in 4th place markets are really not in my vision and are usually further North and South than I will go. That’s where a lot of the inventory data comes from. I don’t look at that except for providing the Friday stats to help out with the inventory confusion. As an agent, I don’t look at 3rd or 4th tier almost ever.

    Primary on The Eastside usually has an Elementary School Rank of 8,9 or 10. 4th place in King Coounty overall often a rank of 0-5. It is not just the school rank that makes it Primary or 4th place, but the school rank tends to aggregate much of the other factors into one number for convenience.

  103. 2103

    Seattle area RE Price Predictions Depend On Boeing’s Future, Ya Can’t Escape from the Truth Boater. It ain’t all “slamdunk” Sales

    Hades in 2016 140 units in Glenbrook were going for $99K and No One Wanted Them

    Then in 2017 they went up to $288K for the same listing….back down to like $250-300K today. The price is about as predictable as using a crystal ball or tea leaves IOWs. So why limit your analysis? IMO, Tim’s data and just a realtor, builder and an escrow agent “advice” is subpar…it takes “overall” local understanding of the market and savvy “innovative” seasoned investment skills. Erik is skilled at this BTW.

    Grab Your Mug of Yuban, Throw Your Old Fairy Book History Books Away on Seattle RE Investing and Think Outside the Box While Reading the Brief:

    “…Boeing doubled its projection of the cost of the 737 MAX crisis this morning, bringing the total to $18.4 billion as the company released its worst financial results in more than 20 years. Boeing also announced a further cut in the production rate of the 787 Dreamliner. Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines announced soaring profit and a hiring spree. And Starbucks brewed up strong results that were overshadowed by store closures in China because of the coronavirus…”

    SWE’s Take: The Boeing company borrowed $12.6B yesterday, to keep afloat?

    “…The Puget Sound area’s home-price growth keeps revving up. We’re squarely in the middle of the pack nationally for year-over-year price growth, but that’s expected to change soon as brokers point to signs of an impending spring frenzy. The five-year look at price changes is particularly striking…”

    SWE’s Take: Property Tax Updates This Valentines Day From King County sound like poised for a big upturn too….the fun goes on and on…LOL….

    “…Should voters give Harborview Medical Center $1.7 billion to build a new tower and make other improvements to its First Hill campus in Seattle? You may be voting on the bond measure this fall. Here’s who’s lining up behind it, and what it could cost you…”

    SWE’s take: From My “Professional” Visits to Local New Hospitals, 2/3s of the rooms are empty and the cafeterias have no customers. Why are we building new ones?

    “…People who use food assistance in the Seattle area can start buying groceries online today from Amazon and Walmart. The pilot program is designed in part as a remedy for places where access to healthy food is a problem. Researchers pinpointed where those places are in the Seattle area…”

    SWE’s Take: Ya don’t get to pick out your meat cuts of choice fresh vegetables at the store, but Seattle condo owners with no cars or parking can use these door delivery services…they aren’t free either.

    “…City crews are clearing 75 tents and other structures from one of Seattle’s most visible homeless encampments after a drug bust at the site off Interstate 5. Some residents accepted referrals to shelters, while others looked for a new place to sleep outside. Video shows the cleanup crew at work. This comes as we launch “Outsiders,” a podcast on homelessness….”

    SWE’s take: Homelessness cleanup crews mix destroying/closing Tent City over drug busts? What about homelessness with those not on drugs and work too?

    “…Why is Amazon so touchy about its workers speaking out on climate change? The answer is right across the lake, columnist Danny Westneat writes…”

    SWE’s take: Brick and Motar stores use car transportation too, drives to the shopping malls. Sounds like AMZ is using less “Climate Change” energy than that, shipping stuff in bulk instead.

    “…Seattle police may open a downtown storefront to boost their presence in an area where seven people were shot last week, one fatally. Downtown residents and business owners packed a meeting yesterday, demanding action…”

    SWE’s take: Inner City Detroit Violence in Seattle, needs better management centers, located where the violence is bad. Good idea Seattle police…

    “… The average salary of a software developer in the Seattle area is $121,250 per year. Cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cloud computing and full stack web development are trends that open career paths….”

    SWE’s Take: How many job applicants today have like 5-10 years experience in “Cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cloud computing and full stack web development”? Who the Hades knows, sounds like hardly anyone to me. INDEED is a website for new employee jobs and states for “software engineers”…”…Education: Most hiring managers expect software engineers to have a bachelor’s degree in computer science, software engineering, computer programming, software development, mathematics or a similar field. Some software engineers can gain employment with a high school diploma and 10 or more years of relevant experience. Some companies may require a master’s degree in computer science or a related subject. This level of education can expand your employment options and increase your earning potential. A doctorate may be necessary if you want to work in research…” High School Diplomas can replace college degreed IMO, because software source control codes are not taught in college, its Trade Secrets folks. The degreed software engineers need on the job training too, or they’re similarly useless. There is no raw data on the total hired in Seattle.

    “…The impeachment trial heads into a new phase today as senators get to lob questions at House prosecutors and White House lawyers. They have to do it in silence; here’s what this will look like. Meanwhile, Republicans can’t get enough votes to block witnesses. As this unfolds, President Donald Trump today is signing a major rewrite of the rules of trade with Canada and Mexico…”

    SWE’s Take: Old News Seattle Times. The Senate has enough votes to block dragging the impeachment time table on and on forever…saw it on FOX news as a “breaking news item”…they’re looking to dismiss the “time wasting” trial in a couple days. They now have the votes.

    Good News: The trade deal with Mexico and Canada is signed. FCA to move billions of dollars of truck production back to America.

  104. 2104

    No More Meat at the Dinner Table With OVERPOPULATION Looming?

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/2020-01-28-crickets-algae-lab-grown-meat-future-of-protein.html

    Enjoy your cockroach dinner Bubbleheads….LOL…hey a new fast food name, June Bugs in the Box….LOL

  105. 2105
    northender says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2097
    Tim’s email is at the bottom of this new article, which describes how “robust” the national real estate market is. There’s an anecdote about bidding wars in Seattle.

    My hunch about the lack of postings here is that he gets his fill of analyzing real estate statistics at work and doesn’t find a future of steady price increases very interesting. Maybe he will return if he sees a bubble starting to form:)

    https://www.redfin.com/blog/2020-housing-market-forecast/

  106. 2106
    Erik says:

    RE: Boater @ 2094
    I like it!

  107. 2107
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2097
    Do it Deerhawke! I like the non partisan graphs. Please post data and the quantifiable precursors that are driving the market in that direction.

  108. 2108
    Brian says:

    If Tim or someone who takes over needs to put in more ads for revenue, I’m fine with that. I turn off my adblocker on sites that I like as long as the ads aren’t insane.

    That aside, I am always keeping my eye on my Redfin search and I am being very surprised by how fast lower prices homes ($500K-700K) on the Eastside are coming and going. I swear it doesn’t seem to matter what they’re priced at right now if the home and location are decent.

    Most of these homes have thousands of views and hundreds of ‘favorites’. Either Redfin’s traffic has recently grown immensely or there’s a lot more buyers looking right now because last year it was hundreds of views and tens of ‘favorites’ for these types of homes.

    This market could be very hot this year if this trend continues….

  109. 2109

    RE: Brian @ 2104

    I think of you every time I see a new one under $700,000. :) I’ve only seen one good one, though I don’t look as far out as your parameters go. I haven’t seen any overpriced ones though. I just didn’t like them for other reasons except for one.

    Of course we won’t know the impact until they close and we know the sold price. Multiple Offers we can tell by “went straight to pending” most times. But did they bid up by a few bucks or a crazy amount? We won’t know until February. I have a few I’m watching that went up 30% in early 2017 and only 2% in 2019. So the % over asking is going to be interesting. This more in the $1 Million give or take market.

  110. 2110
    Eastsider says:

    By Eastsider @ 2085:

    US Treasury 10yr yield continues to plummet Sunday evening and it is now at 1.64%. There is a lot of stress (or panic?) in the market.

    US Treasury 10yr yield hit 1.57% this evening. At this rate, we will break the 2019 low soon. This is not good.

  111. 2111
    rojo says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2049

    Why does every time you post, it is something xenophobic, hater, right-wing lunatic bat shit crazy stuff. This is not anecdotal – I have seen your posts for the past 10 years only now with a new avatar.

  112. 2112
    rojo says:

    What the heck? 4.5mill property pending in less than 30 days

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/3641-134th-Ave-NE-98005/home/429861#property-history

    This is no Chinese money!

  113. 2113

    RE: rojo @ 2107
    Why Do You Hate What Americans Voted for?

    I’d call that anarchy.

    My God, I have Freedom of Speech, So That makes me Racist…LOL

    What’s your definition of a Fascist then? Folks that hate the establishment like me?…LOL

    Time to Use My Freedom of Speech, Slurp my Yuban and Ignore the real Fascists…and read the brief,

    “…King County may impose a head tax on big businesses with employees who earn at least $150,000 a year. A plan in the Legislature would allow the county to tax businesses to raise money for affordable housing, public safety, homeless services and behavioral health. The House bill spells out how the tax would work…”

    SWE’s take: How many companies is that now? one or two maybe?

    “…Wuhan coronavirus update: Gov. Jay Inslee is urging the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to amp up scrutiny of passengers from China at Sea-Tac Airport. The virus has sickened more than 7,700 people and killed 170 (all of the deaths were in China). One possible case has 7,000 passengers stuck on a Carnival cruise ship. And no, coronavirus has nothing to do with beer. Here are some of the strangest misconceptions, and verified ways to protect yourself…”

    SWE’s take: “…When it comes to treating the coronavirus, there are lots of ways that are recommended. For the most part, coronaviruses just like the common cold. It basically has the same symptoms and will disappear from the body and about the same amount of time. Of course, cold are caused by the rhinovirus which is a different virus. Still, most coronaviruses are not dangerous with the exception of the coronavirus known as the Middle East respiratory syndrome or MERS. Most people will get coronaviruses some point in their life, and with rest and allowing their body’s immune system to do its work, the virus will be eradicated and you will be able to go back to normal. ..”

    We should know more about China’s coronavirus treatment and historical results in about a week….the time for a cold to go go away.

    “…A president cannot be impeached for doing something “which he believes will help him get elected in the public interest,” President Donald Trump’s lawyers are arguing. This marks a shift in strategy as senators keep lobbing questions today in the impeachment trial…”

    SWE’s take: The squeaky wheel for continuous investigations to delay action holds no water IMO.

    “…A driver was lucky to escape with a cut on his head after a metal rod plunged through the roof of his car yesterday on I-5 in Federal Way, the State Patrol says. The photos are startling…”

    SWE’s Take: Safety Engineering is needed at rail crossings [with derailed trains in Tacoma] too. The cranes toppling over on construction projects comes to mind too.

    “…Police responded to a Renton car crash and found an 8-year-old driver. The crash happened in the parking lot of a Walmart…”

    SWE’s take: I’d call it child neglect/abuse to leave an eight YO alone in a car. I hope they attack the parents.

    “…Nordstrom is getting into the used-clothing business. The retailer will announce today that it’s selling secondhand apparel online and at its New York flagship store. Nordy’s is explaining how this will work…”

    SWE’s Take: Nordstrom is turning into Good Will now?

    Good News: For SWE and the “voter majority” Populists anyway….the Senate Trial has enough votes to stop anymore late witnesses’ delays…should exonerate Trump tomorrow folks. The big problem with late witnesses is it gives no Trial Schedule left to “cross examine” by Trump’s attorneys.

  114. 2114
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 2106:

    By Eastsider @ 2085:

    US Treasury 10yr yield continues to plummet Sunday evening and it is now at 1.64%. There is a lot of stress (or panic?) in the market.

    US Treasury 10yr yield hit 1.57% this evening. At this rate, we will break the 2019 low soon. This is not good.

    Indeed Eastsider… the bond market is much larger and more important than the stock market. Especially now as corporations have been buying back their own stock, shrinking the number of outstanding shares and driving up prices. The wealthiest people have much more in bonds than stocks.

    I’ve been following all this closely for over 40 years and the wise guys say “Watch the bond market because that will tell you when something is up!”

    US 10 year bonds have dropped 0.32% in the last 30 days… That’s a lot and it’s not just the coronavirus!

  115. 2115

    RE: Blake @ 2110

    Yes Blake

    I saw 1.56% [down from 1.86% a few days ago] today on FOX business news [excludes impeachment coverage and has real business news affecting Seattle RE price predictions], so the 10 yr treasuries are about as stable as a 8.0 earthquake today. My retirement $CASH$ took a big hit on generating interest income too.

    Stay tuned, it ain’t all builder, realtor, escrow agent led predictions from NAR, not at all. This is a complicated and “new paradigm” territory we’re entering and even virus killing fears can knock the house of cards down now…the best poker strategy now is sit out and wait? LOL

    The DOW popped quickly back up the last few days…its a good indicator. Roll the dice Bubbleheads and blame the far left for the uncertainty or the Populists fighting the establishment…LOL…your choice and your gamble. BTW, someone is wrong then….

  116. 2116
    rojo says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2109:

    RE: rojo @ 2107
    Why Do You Hate What Americans Voted for?

    I’d call that anarchy.

    My God, I have Freedom of Speech, So That makes me Racist…LOL

    Go back and read your comments form the past 10 years. On each blog you talk about immigrants, over population, support right-wing racist/xenophobic propaganda. And yes the president is hate mongering racist who got elected by asses like you. But never-mind, you will not see anything clearly through your right wing lenses.

    Read the headlines on your blog –

    – overpopulation creates low paying jobs
    I own several businesses and can’t find people to hire paying for jobs paying 70k-150k in Seattle.
    – We Now Eat Cheap Foreign Food With MOSTLY NON-NUTRITIVE WHITE RICE AND FLOUR
    We were eating like crap before this – fast food is an american creation!

    I could go on and on but you don’t have place in Seattle. Move to some southern state where you can join to hating band of brothers.

    btw, you finally sold your grandma’s blue couch?

  117. 2117
    Blake says:

    RE: rojo @ 2112
    Rojo… I’ve been on this blog for 11+ years. Don’t bother arguing with him. Life’s too short!!
    Last year he cited the TV show Ancient Aliens as a source!

  118. 2118
    Blake says:

    This is interesting… to me at least!

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/01/michael-hudson-on-the-history-of-debt-cancellation-austerity-in-europe-january-2020.html

    Michael Hudson: The German firm Springer just published a Handbook of Money and Credit, in which I wrote the lead article on the origins of money, showing that the barter theory was made up by right-wing Austrian economists who hated governments acting in the public interest.
    …So we find in antiquity, through Sumer, Babylonia, Greece and Rome, that whenever a financial oligarchy has taken power, it has created a depression – a disaster and an economic collapse. Almost all ancient historians have found this. This is what Livy and Dionysius wrote about in their histories of Rome. And Plutarch. That’s why the free-enterprise boys today in the United States have stopped teaching economic history in the economic curriculum. If you go to get an economics degree in the United States, you no longer study history. It’s out of the curriculum. You don’t even study the history of economic thought. It’s as if economics began in 1980 with Margaret Thatcher, Milton Friedman and other right wingers.

    The result is a censorship about how civilization has been evolving for the last few thousand years, and how it has dealt with debt issues. I edited five big colloquia volumes for Harvard on the origins of money, privatization and land ownership, labor and economic accounting. After finishing five colloquia, I decided to write the popular summary of it all. That’s my book “.…..and forgive Them their Debts.”

    Rees Jeannotte: It would be interesting to know why you chose that title. The image on the cover of the book depicts Jesus as mercilessly whipping a moneylender or tossing him out of the temple…

    Michael Hudson: She said that what I’ve really written about is Jesus’s first sermon. He unrolled the scroll of Isaiah and talked about the Year of our Lord, meaning the Jubilee Year, and said that he had come to proclaim that. That is the revolutionary part of my book. People think that the Lord’s Prayer is all about forgiving sins. But in the time Jesus spoke, there was a fight over the debt issue just as there was in Rome. There also were riots demanding debt cancellation in Greece and indeed a long war with Mithridates in the Near East over debt cancellation. That is what Jesus’s first sermon was about, and that is what the Lord’s Prayer was about. That is what the original Judaism had been about, before the rabbinical class, the Pharisees – basically from the wealthy creditor class – took over and subverted the older Jewish religion that Jesus came to try to revive. So my publisher thought that I should tie my book into the origins of Christianity, because we’re living in a Christian society and more people are familiar with the Lord’s Prayer, forgiving their debts than they are about Bronze Age finance.

  119. 2119
    Eastsider says:

    Here are today’s treasury yield curve rates. The curve is starting to invert again. I include Jan 2 rates for reference.

    1 mo 2 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
    1.59 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.48 1.41 1.37 1.39 1.49 1.57 1.88 2.04 Today
    1.53 1.55 1.54 1.57 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.67 1.79 1.88 2.19 2.33 Jan 2

    According to Mortgage News Daily, mortgage rates have not been this low since 2016. So expect the lower tier housing market to heat up near term.

    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/934610.aspx

  120. 2120
    rojo says:

    By Blake @ 2113:

    RE: rojo @ 2112
    Rojo… I’ve been on this blog for 11+ years. Don’t bother arguing with him. Life’s too short!!
    Last year he cited the TV show Ancient Aliens as a source!

    I cannot anymore. Ignored this type of asshole my whole life but can’t do it anymore.

    Here is his blog

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/search?q=immigrants&max-results=20&by-date=true

    softwareenginner is a raging racist lunatic and needs to be banned from this site. Everytime I see his post I throw up!

  121. 2121
    rojo says:

    here is another excerpt from softwareengineer

    The 17 million added are not domestic American citizens BTW, their birthrate is recently depopulating America by a 1.7 value, the added population to America is all foreign.

    numnuts, everyone one in america is foreign unless you have native blood running through your veins but look at your pasty looks and that disgusting blue couch I doubt that very much!

  122. 2122
    rojo says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2115

    Man it is already bad. Our friends kids recently married have not been able to find a home on the eastside and their budget is 1mill unless they go north of bothell or way east beyond novelty hill

  123. 2123
    rojo says:

    Here is another pearl of wisdom from softwareengineer

    Overpopulation Kills Public School Math and Science
    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/2010/03/overpopulation-kills-public-school-math.html

    I wonder why immigrant’s kids seem to be doing fine in the same schools. I wonder what other problems will he blame on others? Perhaps the next thing he going to come up with is that eating mexican beans is causing global warming!

  124. 2124
    rojo says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2111

    oh as I was talking about how softwareengineer may start blaming farts after eating mexican beans, I actually found an article he wrote. It is pure gold. Have read

    http://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/2016/10/we-now-eat-cheap-foreign-food-with.html
    Cheap 3rd World Country Food in America Mexican: They buy the beans and non-nutritive white rice “CHEAP” from 50 lb bags….then cut up 2-4 oz of chicken and charge like $15 a plate

    Here is a clue for you a-hole, eat at home. No one needs your business. Also post what you eat so we can judge what healthy frozen or canned dinner you are eating.

  125. 2125
    David says:

    RE: rojo @ 2120 – Mexico requires Americans, who want residency, to show up with money or they reject your application.

    “The financial criteria required to live in Mexico (permanent residency)… [is to] have savings equivalent amounting to 20,000 days’ worth of minimum wage (approximately US$130,000*) over the past 12 months.”

    Those racist Mexicans.

  126. 2126
    rojo says:

    RE: David @ 2121

    give me a break!!

    U.S. immigration law makes visas available to immigrant investors seeking to enter the United States to engage in new commercial enterprises that benefit the U.S. economy through job creation and capital investment. … $500,000 (U.S.) in a high-unemployment or rural area, considered a targeted employment area.
    travel.state.gov › content › travel › us-visas › immigrate › immigrant-in…
    Immigrant Investor Visas – Travel.gov – US Department of State

  127. 2127
    David says:

    RE: rojo @ 2122 – Oh I too feel surrounded by Mexican high net worth investors!!! They ARE everywhere!!!

  128. 2128
    Eastsider says:

    RE: rojo @ 2118 – We are well on the way to become Vancouver. There is no hope of starting a family in Vancouver for locally born.

  129. 2129

    Rojo, So You Don’t Agree With Me

    So what? What does it really prove? One of us it as a complete “donkey” hole for calling the other a “donkey” hole???? And its not me…LOL…its you with your offensive HATE. Time to wash your mouth out with soap…how’s work going?… You on the verge of losing your job or maybe its a divorce? I recommend mental health therapy in that case. How much money ya got saved? A few hundred dollars? And we should follow your path???? Maybe you’re almost 40 and still living with mom and dad in the basement? We know nothing about you.

    Time to flush Rojo’s HATE down the sewer pipe with the rest of the OVERPOPULATION sewage drainage and gulp Yuban, while reading the Brief:

    “… As Swedish health workers’ strike ends, worries about staffing linger
    The three-day strike at Swedish Medical Center is set to end this morning, allowing ERs to reopen. A Seattle Times reporter and photographer are at one Swedish campus to bring you the latest. Staffing levels are one of the workers’ key grievances: Swedish has made cuts and left hundreds of nursing positions open, creating a vacancy rate more than double those of other major hospitals in the Seattle area. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times) ..”

    SWE’s take: The new hospitals are over half empty anyway….they don’t need nurses.

    “…Hold onto your hat and find the flashlights. The wind is blowing in, with gusts up to 65 mph expected in some parts of the Puget Sound area. And temperatures will tumble as two rainy systems drench us. Seattle already broke one rainfall record yesterday…”

    SWE’s take: Even new roofs rip off the houses when the winds blow hard….read your “new” roof warranty carefully, it may likely not cover it.

    “… Three teen girls have been arrested in Bellevue, accused of launching a weekend crime spree that started with a carjacking in Spokane, included a police chase and hit-and-run robbery, and ended with arrests while they were getting manicures…”

    SWE’s Take: More “inner city Detroit” daily violence in the Seattle Area. Its good they had their nails done before they arrested them….LOL

    “…The Senate could acquit President Donald Trump as soon as today, after one Republican’s move last night all but dashed Democracts’ efforts to hear more testimony. Check back for updates as senators take a pivotal vote on witnesses. Amid the fray, a velvet-voiced chaplain will be doing his job, trying to steady senators’ consciences and help them behave. One of the only things Republicans and Democrats agree on: the power of a punchy little word…”

    SWE’s Take: Game over…I told you they had the votes when MSM contradicted me. But Rojo thinks I’m always wrong anyway….my “evil” thoughts make me guilty….LOL…how come I feel happy and innocent, completely. This isn’t the only example of my being right all along, my 737 MAX 8 safety engineering predictions [when MSM totally disagreed with me] turned out right the last year too. And I’ve been retired for 4 years now….with bundles of $CASH$, of course I’m a “donkey’s” hole to Rojo…I’m successful.

    “…The Macy’s store in downtown Seattle is preparing to close in February after more than 90 years of retail history at 300 Pine St. Longtime Seattleites remember the store as The Bon Marché, founded in what is now Belltown as a little dry-goods shop back in 1890. You can still pay a last visit in person, or look through Seattle Sketcher’s eyes. (Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: I’ve shopped Macy’s at South Center, no more. It takes hours to find anything you want and its jumbled together. At least the online has a search engine…LOL

    “… Get academic credit for local industry training. Hands-on experience provides a boost to workers entering a new job or field. Learn how adult learners and nontraditional students can apply valuable life experience toward a degree…”

    SWE’s take: Boeing and MSFT on-the-job experience is not replaceable with a degree from the U of W….LOL

    “…Washington legislators have several ways to demonstrate their values and show voters they’re better than the other Washington. They should strengthen state ethics rules and uphold the Public Records Act, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. ..”

    SWE’s Take: And where’s Waldo? The ;ghost” guy in the striped shirt that actually requests “public records”???

    “…The last section of Interstate 5 from Everett to Tacoma is completed in 1967, with the final 15 miles from Dearborn Street near Seattle’s Beacon Hill to Kent-Des Moines Road South. The Legislature adopted the plan for a Tacoma-Seattle-Everett “superhighway” in 1953. Construction consumes 6,600 parcels of land, 4,500 of them in Seattle. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)..”

    SWE’s Take: I was 14 years old then. I’m 66 today, the population in Seattle has gone up about 3% a year…its trippled then since our freeways were built….LOL…no wonder they’re stalled out parking lots now.

    Good News: Rojo’s boring/wasteful impeachment trial is destroyed…LOL

  130. 2130
    rojo says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2125:

    Rojo, So You Don’t Agree With Me

    So what? What does it really prove? One of us it as a complete “donkey” hole for calling the other a “donkey” hole???? And its not me…LOL…its you with your offensive HATE. Time to wash your mouth out with soap…how’s work going?… You on the verge of losing your job or maybe its a divorce? I recommend mental health therapy in that case. How much money ya got saved? A few hundred dollars? And we should follow your path???? Maybe you’re almost 40 and still living with mom and dad in the basement? We know nothing about you.

    Time to flush Rojo’s HATE down the sewer pipe with the rest of the OVERPOPULATION sewage drainage and gulp Yuban, while reading the Brief:

    Good News: Rojo’s boring/wasteful impeachment trial is destroyed…LOL

    No a-hole, I am not some unsuccessful idiot who creates a blog to spew hate towards immigrants. I am one who has built many successful companies and employ local people and positively add to this economy. I don’t complain about overpopulation or immigrants and how mexican / thai/ chinese / indian or other ethnic food is bad and overpriced.

    I come once in a while to this blog have seen your ugly ass face on that ugly ass couch for over 10 years talking about the same old thing like a crazy senile racist uncle or aunt that everyone wants to avoid at a family get together. Btw, you still haven’t told us what you did for that couch.

    Good new is that you are 66, soon you will be dead, alone, in your basement and no one will come to your funeral because they all think you were crazy. They will be singing hallelujah, GOOD effi’ng RIDDANCE.

  131. 2131
    rojo says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2124

    That is tough because 70-150k for people in my company and I cannot find decent people to hire in bellevue/redmond because they being forced out to living 1-2 hrs away! No one should have to commute 2-3 hrs each day!

  132. 2132
    rojo says:

    By David @ 2123:

    RE: rojo @ 2122 – Oh I too feel surrounded by Mexican high net worth investors!!! They ARE everywhere!!!

    Oh my god, how did you find out I am mexican? My avatar name? Smell of my bean farts?

    Genius watson!

  133. 2133
    rojo says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2125

    http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/a3eeb2581e52b2dfb9a12131a9e6ca6a

    Nice kitchen! Looks like that stove of yours is as old as you are.
    Doesn’t look like life has been very kind to you.

  134. 2134
    Eastsider says:

    RE: rojo @ 2127

    Cost of doing business lol. If you want to set up shop in Manhattan, you pay the prevailing wages.

  135. 2135
    Deerhawke says:

    I saw a presentation by Matthew Gardner last week. He is Windermere’s chief economist and a long-time watcher of national and local real estate markets.

    Top Line– He is calling for a 6.6% increase in the average (not median) price in King County this year and for a 7.3% increase in Snohomish County. The increases will be most noticeable in more affordable areas that are still within commuting distance of employment centers in Seattle, Bellevue, Kirkland, etc.

    ________________

    Highlights by Jordan Baker of Windermere/North

    ________________

    Gardner anticipates our next recession taking place in 2021, not 2020 as previously thought. The last 11 recessions averaged 58 months in between one recession to the next, and we are currently at 127 months since the last recession, so we are due. Worth noting is the next recession will not be based on housing like the previous recession. It is predicted to be a more normal adjustment that should also be short in length, unlike the Great Recession of 2008-2010.

    Recessions do not always cause home prices to drop. Of the last six recessions, home prices actually ended up higher than when the recession began with the exception of the Great Recession of 2008-2010, which was based on housing due to predatory lending.

    The U.S. Economy will add 1.8M new jobs, but national unemployment rates should rise to 4% from 3.5% by the end of 2020. However, wage growth should start to improve as that has been slow over the last decade. In the Greater Seattle area, unemployment hovered at 3% in Q3 of 2019.
    We are living in our homes longer. In 2019, the average home seller in the U.S had owned their home for an average of 8.2 years compared to the average home seller in 2000 at 4.2 years. This is reflective of homeowners choosing to build more equity over time before they cash-out and move on to the next home, as well as the increased amount of Baby Boomers coming to market with their long-time homes as they pivot towards retirement.

    We are not headed toward a housing bubble. When seasonally adjusted, home prices are still 5.8% below the prior peak. In addition, predatory lending practices were eliminated after the 2008 housing crash and the average down payment is much higher. Overall, home equity is high with the national average in Q3 2019 sitting at 26.7% and the average FICO score of a borrower in Q3 of 2019 was 755. This, along with foreclosure starts being low, indicates that we are not headed towards a housing bubble.
    Interest rates should remain under 4% in 2020. These are historical lows, but reflective of the last decade. In 2010, rates were around 5% and were as low as 3.4% in 2012. In late 2018, rates almost crested 5% but careened down under 4% for most of the year. The 2000’s averaged 6.3%, the 1990’s 8.1%, the 1980’s 12.7%, and the 1970’s 8.9%. This should put today’s rates in perspective.

    Single-family new construction remains muted due to the expensive cost of land, labor, materials, and regulatory fees. This has made inventory levels tighter and the appreciation of existing homes stronger. The lack of overbuilding is also another contributing factor to no housing bubble.
    Millennials are a force in the real estate market! They are the largest generation at 79M, are the largest cohort in the U.S. workforce, and more than 1M Millennial women are becoming moms every year. This generation has grown up and is experiencing big life transitions that lead to home ownership decisions. Nationally, they accounted for 37.5% of home purchases in Q3 of 2019. In the Greater Seattle area in 2019, 46% of home purchases were done by Millennials with an average down payment of 17% and with a FICO score of 741.

    The Greater Seattle economy looks to outperform the U.S. economy due to continued corporate growth, specifically in information services, which will balance out any losses we may see due to the current setbacks in aerospace.

    In the Greater Seattle area, as we start 2020 inventory levels are tight due to a high level of absorption over the course of 2019 after a big inventory dump in mid-2018. Many investors offloaded properties in 2018 and it took time to absorb this inventory as it accompanied a time frame where interest rates were near 5%. The market softened at that time, but now we have returned to constricted inventory levels and lower interest rates. This will bode well for home sellers and provide buyers low debt service.

    The average sale price in King County in December of 2019 was $830,000 and King County saw a 3% increase in home prices in all of 2019 over all of 2018. It is predicted, due to low inventory, strong job growth. and low interest rates that year-over-year price appreciation in King County in 2020 will be around 6.6%. Affordability and consumer sentiment are the biggest challenges in King County, especially in-city Seattle and on the Eastside, which are closer to job centers.

    The average sale price in Snohomish County in December of 2019 was $552,000 and Snohomish County saw a 5% increase in home prices in 2019 over 2018. It is predicted, due to low inventory, strong job growth, and low interest rates that year-over-year price appreciation in Snohomish County in 2020 will be around 7.3%. Snohomish County has benefited from the high prices in King County, leading folks to purchase further out for affordability purposes.

    His Q4 2019 report is here:

    https://www.windermere.com/blogs/windermere/posts/western-washington-real-estate-market-update–21

  136. 2136
    Eastsider says:

    “Gardner anticipates our next recession taking place in 2021, not 2020 as previously thought.”

    Everyone, including him, who has anticipated a recession in the past decade has been proven wrong. Both stock/bond markets are currently heading in the “wrong” direction. Just sayin’

  137. 2137

    Of course all of that prediction is of no nevermind if it’s in God’s hands with this virus. Up until today I wasn’t at maybe a recession now anymore than I already was because of it being a Presidential Election year. But this is definitely NOT something the Dems created to throw the economy under a bus the way it usually is in an election year. Maybe this means God is a Democrat?

    Dow is down 650 points as I’m typing. Next week will be very telling. The small blips before today that recovered quickly were not worrisome, but if this doesn’t turn around quickly next week and proceeds to go down…the recession may be here. Always bad to have a bid drop on a Friday.

  138. 2138
    N says:

    Re: “the average down payment is much higher”

    I’ve started to feel like this is more industry talking points then reality. Is it really that much better?

    This article claims the average down payment is only 5% today nationally. I guess those 20% downs are being offset by many more 3.5% purchases.

    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49443-the-average-down-payment-is-much-smaller-than-you-think/

  139. 2139
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2131
    I attended a presentation by Matthew Gardner at the Frye art museum last year. He was a pretty nice guy and had a lot of data to back up his assessments. Overall, he appeared very intelligent and reasonable, but it may have just been his British accent ;-)

  140. 2140
    Eastsider says:

    What a (huge) difference a day makes. 10yr treasury yield hits 1.5% today. Next week will be telling. Expect mortgage rates to continue its decline.

  141. 2141
    David says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2133:

    Of course all of that prediction is of no nevermind if it’s in God’s hands with this virus. Up until today I wasn’t at maybe a recession now anymore than I already was because of it being a Presidential Election year. But this is definitely NOT something the Dems created to throw the economy under a bus the way it usually is in an election year. Maybe this means God is a Democrat?

    Dow is down 650 points as I’m typing. Next week will be very telling. The small blips before today that recovered quickly were not worrisome, but if this doesn’t turn around quickly next week and proceeds to go down…the recession may be here. Always bad to have a bid drop on a Friday.

    This VIRUS is another media-inspired hype machine. Coronavirus has ALWAYS existed in the bovine population (ergo cows). The Flu kills between 12,000-61,000 people every year. It also (per my understanding) originates in China each year.

    Coronavirus is much ado about nothing. Buy more stock on the downturn.

  142. 2142
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2133

    I think this may be a first time that I agree with David on anything. This corona virus is not a big deal as these things go. It is not the 1918 flu or anything remotely like it. In a few weeks, it will look in retrospect like a flash in the pan.

    On the other hand, if all the markets need is this kind of weak excuse for heading downhill, then the real virus is a financial one.

  143. 2143
    richard says:

    Will the temporary entry deny of Chinese into US can cool down Seattle housing market a little bit?

  144. 2144
    Beano says:

    RE: rojo @ 2126

    Chill bruh. Not everyone is the same or shares your opinions.

  145. 2145
    rojo says:

    RE: Beano @ 2140

    I am chill man. Took it out my system of seeing him spew for past 10 years. Good for now…

  146. 2146
  147. 2147
    Blake says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2131
    Thanks Deerhawke. Another informative post. I still scroll through this vast wasteland looking for tidbits of useful information from you, Ardell and a few others! Gonna list my property on Vashon Island in March after 15 years in this area and head back to the midwest this Fall to fight the good fight to get this country back on the a sane trajectory!

    As far as economists’ predictions… I’m with Ardell. Too many Black Swans and uncertainties. The Iranians are going to wreak havoc in the oil fields of the middle east in the near term and US policy is… not in good hands. Empires fail due to arrogance and unrealistic assumptions about their infallibility. I’m a statistician and have done a lot of forecasting and the tendency for “models” is to choose the median output from many possibilities solely based on historical data. But the events do not follow a deterministic pattern, but stochastic, which means that randomness is a large factor and difficult to model based solely on prior, historical data.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stochastic-modeling.asp
    I.e. it’s all new! “Frequentist” statistics, (which has dominated for a hundred years) is rapidly being replaced by Bayesian statistics which tries to account for difficult to measure “priors” – – meaning uncertainties.

    My favorite stat professor at the University of Wisconsin George Box has a famous quote:
    “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

    Even the best economists must have a large dose of humility … or they are IDIOTS!

    As the great philosophy Yogi Berra said: “It;s hard to make predictions, especially about the future!”
    :-)

  148. 2148
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Blake @ 2114 – great article. Prof. Hudson is one of the most distinguished economists, if not the most.

  149. 2149
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 2137 – There are a number of factors to consider in a contagious disease. The two primary factors are

    1. R0 (“R-naught”) is an estimate of how many people may get the virus from a single infected person. This is around 2.2* for the current infection.
    2. CFR (case fatality ratio) is currently estimated at around 2%*. So there are about 2 deaths in 100 cases. For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases).

    If we allow coronavirus to spread like a seasonal flu, we can expect 100x more fatalities, which translates into deaths in the millions in the US alone.

    Many governments are taking drastic actions to stop/slow the spread of the disease. Sure the current coronavirus may end up like SARS with relatively few deaths. But that will be largely due to extraordinary efforts by governments and health authorities worldwide.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

    *These numbers will change as more data is available.

  150. 2150
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2145

    I just know that Coronavirus is a common thing in cows. Has always been a common malady in cows.

    Form my visits to China, I suspect the unsanitary living conditions for a huge swathe of the population means they get sicker than a Westerner.

    There might also be some genetic differences in the Chinese that leave them susceptible?

    The Chinese eat all sorts of things that we, as Westerners, simply ill not eat. EVERYTHING is eaten in China – especially in the poor areas.

    Chinese values are COMPLETELY different than the Christian world. Though Christianity is spreading rapidly there from what I understand.

    I’ll post some photos of what I have seen in China soon.

  151. 2151
    David says:

    Here are some photos I took waiting for a freighter to leave. China is a dirty place – seriously. But they are definitely improving and striving.

    https://imgur.com/a/Wv7NtdY

  152. 2152

    Continuing my Friday tally of Active listings in King County. I pull these as I’m typing, but I did the first number before typing this opening and was surprised to see the total down again. Seemed to me there were a fair amount of new listings this week and also review dates for 2/4. Still looks like things are selling off faster than they are coming on. Not sure how helpful the bedroom breakdown is but I find it interesting to test perception. Like the movement of the 1 bedroom condos vs 2 bedroom condos. Maybe that’s just about affordability.

    Total was 2,388 on 12/31
    1/7 it is 2,251
    1/18 is 2,224
    1/24 is 2,193
    1/31 is 2125

    Condos were 632 on 12/31
    1/7 they are 576
    1/18 is 579
    1/24 is 575 (102 of these are townhouses)
    1/31 is 551 (97 of these are townhouses)

    Residential was 1,756 on 12/31
    1/7 is 1,675
    1/18 is 1,645
    1/24 is 1,618 (195 of these are townhouses)
    1/31 is 1,574 (189 of these are townhouses)

    Condo
    0 bedrooms 27 now 22
    1 bedroom 184 now 150
    2 bedroom 294 now 261
    3 bedroom 92 now 87
    4+ bedroom 35 now 31

    Residential
    0 bedroom 27 now 24
    1 bedroom 17 now 18
    2 bedroom 209 now 190
    3 bedroom 503 now 420
    4 bedroom+ 1,000 now 922

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  153. 2153

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2131

    I don’t agree with a lot of this. Previous recessions absolutely did result in lower home prices. I did notice that here in the Seattle Area the market was more likely flat because it was going up so much for growth reasons and that upward momentum matched the downward pressure from the recession.

    But clearly the big decline in 2008 was not unique in other places. When I started real estate in 1990 in Cherry Hill NJ the market was identical to the 2007 to 2012 market. there was a huge upswing prior and people who bought at peak were underwater by a lot for quite sometime. Basically 89 to 95. It didn’t start a new upswing until 1998 and that is true of many markets. Seattle just had so much going on then from Microsoft and California buyers coming up that you didn’t feel it.

    The dot com bust is another and several others and likely all did have an impact on home prices. Just not here and that’s where the “Seattle is Special” came from. For a very long time Seattle was dodging a lot of bullets.

    When I started in real etate there were a lot more Corporate Relocation Buyouts and most everything for sale was a Relo or an Estate Sale or a Bank Owned house as anyone with an elective decision to sell was either underwater or waiting for the market to get better.

    But they didn’t buy zero down so they had to eat the loss which is why people didn’t notice as much. The recent crash was more noticeable and made more headlines for that reason. When the seller takes the hit it doesn’t make the news.

  154. 2154
    Rojo says:

    By richard @ 2139:

    Will the temporary entry deny of Chinese into US can cool down Seattle housing market a little bit?

    Chinese money has not played much in the local real estate since early 2018.

  155. 2155

    Great Blogs All….Yeah the Coronavirus has Ended Chinese Visits Today

    Sounds non-partisan to me as a cause too, remember when Obama let Ebola into America and it Fizzled Out Too with No Travel Quarantine…I commented on this possibility weeks ago BTW.

    The HIV strain has mutated to a more innocuous strain too, apparently.

    Time to Listen to Opinions Besides Your Own [if you have an open mind] and Gulp Yuban [MJB soon, the Yuban sale ended], Read the Brief:

    “… Three years and $56 million later, Seattle Asian Art Museum is reinvented
    Seattle Asian Art Museum will show off a bold approach that no other significant, standalone Asian art museum in the nation has taken. It reopens next weekend, after three years and $56 million worth of changes. Peek inside…”

    SWE’s take: What are the hours of operation? Those historical museum venues in Auburn/Kent close at like 3PM and only open weekdays. Find out before you drive there.

    “…Should I wear a mask? Can I catch coronavirus from a package? Should I cancel my trip to China? We submitted readers’ questions to the professionals to get answers to these questions and others about the illness believed to have originated in Wuhan, China. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Nurses I work with warned me the masks are almost useless [except coughs], the germs seep into the paper gaps on the side just as bad as ever.

    “…The Senate is likely to acquit President Donald Trump on Wednesday, after rejecting Democrats’ demands to summon witnesses for his impeachment trial. The historic vote is scheduled for the day after Trump’s State of the Union address. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Ignore SWE, he’s just irritating all of us with inevitable facts and slamdunk accuracy on prediction conclusions…he’s a “donkey” hole, but right most of the time anyway? They hated Tesla too for similar “technological innovations” like the electric car in 1925 and called him a “Mad Scientist” because he believed in intelligent life outside Earth too…LOL….I have my doubts too, but the real Tesla claimed the alternating current invention came directly from communications with space aliens…LOL…check out the history books and old news papers if you think I’m a “donkey” hole, how about ace in the hole thinking? There was a time, centuries ago, when folks thought science was demon possessions and devilish witchcraft too…they called themselves the “Flat Earthers”, ask Columbus…LOL

    “…The Puget Sound area’s home-price growth keeps revving up. We’re squarely in the middle of the pack nationally for year-over-year price growth, but that’s expected to change soon as brokers point to signs of an impending spring frenzy. The five-year look at price changes is particularly striking. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Wonderful Fairy Tales to listen to, or actual future history? Perhaps we can weigh the outcome in price growth favor by getting MASS high school interns into MSFT and Boeing for a decade or two, with pay too, ASAP….before the seasoned employees with high school degrees and experience are all dead [and can’t train the college graduates]. We’ve got to act now or regret later?

    “…An unexpected gift: Millions of homeowners can save money by refinancing their loans, now that the average interest rate for 30-year mortgages has fallen. The sharp drop surprised experts. Here’s what to consider before you refi. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: IOWs extend your debt for a few more decades, you didn’t need future retirement $CASH$ anyway?

    Good News: Sanders is now leading Biden in Iowa? LOL….and Trump is suppose to win Iowa too.

  156. 2156

    Commenting On Coronavirus Scare and Seattle Area RE Price Predicting

    Still, the risk to the American public remains low, officials stressed. That’s partly because public health departments around the country are on high alert and preparing for additional cases.

    “…“We have a really good public health system that’s really good at detecting disease,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist and director of UCLA’s Center for Global and Immigrant Health. “We’ve been preparing for this kind of a thing.”

    The CDC is reminding the public to take the usual precautions during flu season: Wash hands regularly; cover your mouth when you cough; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; and avoid contact with people who are sick…”

    https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/nation/public-health-officials-offer-scant-details-on-us-coronavirus-patients/article_5c67742b-2b2e-5745-9977-3001bd5623ec.html

    Is this just another Ebola or bird flu scare from foreign nations or real steel? Who knows…even the current prognosis of original American infection patients is omitted. Are they getting better now? Lord only knows. This could be a MERs type strain, worst case scenario, but unlikely? Questions, questions…

  157. 2157

    RE: rojo @ 2126

    Watch Out Rojo

    With the MASS killing and mental illness epidemics teamed together recently and both vetted for gun control limitations….wishing anyone “dead” on social media sites is a crossing the red line. You already may be under FBI surveillance now. I’d tone it down. My God…..I wouldn’t wish death on my ex wife or any human being for that matter….it definitely sounds like mental problems needing gun control vetting to me.

    Remember I warned you.

  158. 2158

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2153

    When you are talking, as you are today, there is no legitimate gripe. But it seems that on some days you are copy and pasting the newspaper and posting it here. Then you give your take on something or other, but mostly you are copying and pasting every headline from the newspaper.

    You are drinking coffee and reading your newspaper, as many people do, but why are you reading your newspaper out loud to us? That is just odd. That would be odd if we were standing in your kitchen, but even more odd for you to copy and paste the whole stream of newspaper headlines here.

    Maybe that isn’t what you are doing, but that’s what it looks like. We have our own access to that same newspaper. Those posts in particular are really an abuse of the comment section of this blog.

    That said if you do read the name of the whistleblower, do please post that headline. You posted one with “whistleblower” in it and I thought you knew the name. If you do, don’t keep it to yourself. :) Well, once he’s acquitted it really doesn’t matter…so maybe do keep it to yourself. LOL!

  159. 2159
    richard says:

    RE: Rojo @ 2150 – source?

  160. 2160
    richard says:

    as i stated for a while in this forum, but unfortunately it played out the way i am afraid, the mortage rate is pushed down below 3% for 30 year fixed. i am not positive chinese money is.knocked out. i am afraid corrupt chinese government will stimulate more captial flight. buyer suckers, bring your offer! realtor and sellers coffer are wide open!

  161. 2161

    RE: richard @ 2156

    Just correcting one thing. The mortgage rate is not currently below 3% for a 30 year fixed. When that happens I will post it, but no. It’s not. It’s not as low as 2012 yet.

  162. 2162
    richard says:

    can anybody here explain why 10 year treasury yield is 1.5% today but some bank offer saving rate 1.8%?
    can anybody here explain why 30 year fixed trending below 3% while actual inflate rate is not far from 3%?
    what to give?

  163. 2163
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 2158 – You can find the treasury yield curve here –

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    Bank yields are not the same as treasury yields. Banks in need of capital tend to offer higher yields.

    There is no direct correlation between yield and inflation. However, in a ‘normal’ market, yields are generally higher than inflation.

    30yr treasury yield is now under 2%. That is worrisome.

  164. 2164
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2159 – on the same token, why people buy negtive yield bond? i understand some bigger fool will buy the bond at higher price, so low yield not an issuse. same mindset goes with housing market…

  165. 2165
    Rojo says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2153

    Wonder why your wife left you…

  166. 2166
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 2160 – Sometimes there are regulatory requirements to hold negative yielding bonds (e.g. pensions.) Traditionally, at time of crisis/uncertainties, capital preservation prevails over maximizing yields/returns. I.e. take your poisons, losing money in the stock market or preserving capital in “safe haven” treasuries.

  167. 2167
    richard says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 2162 – cheap money, low house inventory, i am tired of this pump game. artifically keep rate and inventory low to keep the price up until it breaks. geez, idont know when will it happen. but when it happens, guess what will happen?home owners debt are forgiven becoz there will be too many defaults. the system is rotten to the core. shit!

  168. 2168
    Monty says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2153:

    RE: rojo @ 2126

    Watch Out Rojo

    With the MASS killing and mental illness epidemics teamed together recently and both vetted for gun control limitations….wishing anyone “dead” on social media sites is a crossing the red line. You already may be under FBI surveillance now. I’d tone it down. My God…..I wouldn’t wish death on my ex wife or any human being for that matter….it definitely sounds like mental problems needing gun control vetting to me.

    Remember I warned you.

    You seem to have a very thin skin for a guy who has a blog to spread hate!!!

  169. 2169
    Eastsider says:

    RE: richard @ 2163 – I understand your frustration. Many young families are in the same boat. Notice nobody talked about the FOMC meeting this week yet we saw huge volatility in both bond and stock markets. If the FED is all powerful, we would not have the Great Recession and the housing crash. They were not supposed to occur!

    P.s. I don’t have any advise other than stay your course. The worst you can do is to chase the bubble.

  170. 2170

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2154

    I’ve Learned One Important Thing

    Disagreement on the reasons for RE predictions vary and each has their own style of communications. Mine evolved with Toastmasters Ardelle….I didn’t read the whole paper….just RE related articles I sifted. I also learned [believe it or not] the best communications persuasion comes from “just being yourself”….I just learned that about a year ago. I very bright African American evaluator recommended this approach and I agree. Phonies can be spotted a mile away and are not as persuasive.

    This open [just be yourself] communications technique not only increases persuasion at Toastmasters meetings, but it would help you sell RE too. My best contact at Toastmasters is Dave, a professional consultant for home buying. He told me the reason I can’t put modular [mobile or manufactured] homes on the same page of stick homes is they are cheaper to build and POLITICS. I mentioned his math equation that set RE price going down as taxes go up…and how sellers didn’t want to hear about it. Selective sifting in my book. BTW, you evaluate communications well and guess what? Evaluations contradict themselves constantly, that doesn’t make either opinion wrong, but leaves an open door to possible compromise in the future.

    I’m sure there’s also many folks that love to see both sides to the RE related news stories on this comments….I see them too. Thinking with just facts and changing your mind with new facts is how ya become successful and dog gonnit if I’m not honest to myself, I’m not honest to others. Dave [at Toastmasters] understands this perfectly and considers me a business associate. He thinks POLITICS disrupting actual truth communications on RE related concerns the root to all his problems too..LOL

    So yes, I may not fit into a politically correct personality at all, on purpose…LOL….I do great in sales Ardell, but won’t do sales, because I can easily sell ’em something they don’t really need. I could be a great attorney defending nuclear waste for Exxon too, making buckoo bucks too…but chose systems/safety engineering instead…I sleep great at night too. I raised two kids almost all by myself for decades while working full-time and one was severely retarded, most men can’t claim that success and a lot of men would have abandoned their family because they don’t have my personality or courage. Yeah, I’m like 98% of married folks with a severely disabled son, divorced now….but so are most like me. I love my son even with his disabilities and pat him on the head recently for help getting me to retirement “single” now.

    I’m a bachelor with a bachelor’s style man cave too….I’m like Buffet too, frugal. If ya don’t like my couch [I bought a new one BTW] or my old fashion kitchen, get a life. Remodeling a 30 year old kitchen is a waste of money if your old 30 YO GE stove still works well…it does. It hardly affects resale at all, as you know. Those $2000 stainless steel refrigerators last about 7 years before the compressor fails, ask the repairmen…as far as artificial granite counters go, its money down the drain too, on resale.

  171. 2171
    David says:

    By Eastsider @ 2159:

    RE: richard @ 2158 – You can find the treasury yield curve here –

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    Bank yields are not the same as treasury yields. Banks in need of capital tend to offer higher yields.

    There is no direct correlation between yield and inflation. However, in a ‘normal’ market, yields are generally higher than inflation.

    30yr treasury yield is now under 2%. That is worrisome.

    If the Government is talking about the possibility of 100-year low-interest bonds, how can there ever be higher interest rates? Low-interest rates are permanent forever.

    The Government cannot have as much debt as it has and EVER allow high rates. The Government is competing for capital against the average Joe. The average Joe would like higher interest on his money. But that is OVER.

    Stocks are the only hope for the average Joe – or Real Estate – or owning a cash-flow rich business leveraging assets.

    If dollars continue to lose 50% of their value every 17 years, you have no financial future otherwise.

  172. 2172

    RE: David @ 2166

    Before Glass Steagall was repealed the Average Joe was guaranteed 5% on their passbook savings account at Commercial Banks for a very long time. Part of the tradeoffs between various banks and brokerage firms was Average Joe could double his small savings in his passbook account in 20 years. They could have a 2nd 5% passbook account for shorter term savings and usually called a Vacation Club passbook.

    Whether the bank was making money on it or not, the 5% was carved in stone. Brokerage houses couldn’t have Mutual Funds, only bank Trust Accounts could have those. But Brokerage houses could have Money Market accounts.

    Then interest rates went way up into high double digits and people screamed that they wanted those higher rates and didn’t have the kind of money to open a brokerage account..

    So Glass Steagall started unraveling in pieces long before it was repealed. The banks could offer Money Market accounts and the brokerage houses could have mutual funds. That was the tradeoff.

    People were tripping over each other to close their 5% passbook accounts and open higher yielding Money Market accounts…and then eventually they were getting 1/2 of 1% instead of the 5% guaranteed rate.

    Sorry…can’t feel bad for them about that.

    Of course Glass Steagall was what kept banks from failing again after the 1929 Great Depression…but no one wanted it anymore. So the banks crashed again.

    Sorry…can’t feel bad about that.

    You get what you wish for sometimes.

  173. 2173
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2167 – This must be the origin of my parents view that $1M in the bank was worth $60k a year of income (not adjusted for inflation). Obviously some of that would need to be reinvested to offset inflation losses each year.

    The good old days for sure.

    Those days are NEVER EVER coming back.

    If Bernie Sanders gets elected, even your assets are going to permanently deflate. Starting the instant an appearance of potential electoral victory is in grasp. WAAAY before the actual election.

    Ergo, The Obama Syndrome.

  174. 2174

    RE: David @ 2168

    I feel bad for the Richards but as soon as they get what they want, a crash in home prices and buy one, they will never again want home prices to go down. Right?

  175. 2175
    Nicole says:

    RE: David @ 2168
    “If Bernie Sanders gets elected, even your assets are going to permanently deflate. Starting the instant an appearance of potential electoral victory is in grasp. WAAAY before the actual election.

    Ergo, The Obama Syndrome.”

    I’m so curious- what does that mean?

  176. 2176
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2169 – You know the first thing he will do is get Redfin to send him hourly updates about the market value of his home!

    I personally always hope the house I buy pops enough to offset the cost of sales – should I suddenly see pit bulls in the hood. I’m getting too old to fight off the thugs in the gentrifying areas close to the core that I like to buy houses.

    IMO, if you want to conserve your money in a low-interest market, buy Berkshire Hathaway stock. It has underperformed the market badly for a while now. BUT, if you really listen to Buffett, he now openly says he is investing for capital preservation. He openly says large gains are not possible at their market cap. BUT he is also sitting on $130B in cash currently. I’ll take that over a bond any day of the week.

  177. 2177
    David says:

    RE: David @ 2171 – And let’s face it, Buffett is in his late 80s – the market expects him to drop dead at any moment. And it isnt helpful that his partner is mid-90s.

  178. 2178

    Excellent Blogs Bubbleheads and With Ardell as an the “excellent” lead evaluator realtor Even With Differing Opinions

    Yes Ardell, I remember when 5% checking accounts were almost slamdunk and money markets were 18% in 1980, but even the locked box penalty for withdrawals CDs [like 10 Yr+] are too close to 1-2% interest, I just yawn at them and switch to a 0.2-0.5% MM. I’m switching all my 2.2% 401K tax free funds [with early withdrawal penalty] or MASS taxation owed if you take it all out at once at your highest household tax bracket. $CASH$. To date I’ve switched it all without spending any of it during retirement, I’m very lucky though…I already pumped that account with more than enough $CASH$ to last me decades…SWE lives 34 more years to be a 100? LOL…and I have a full pension which includes two more income pots to boot. Most don’t, I’m very lucky indeed.

    Take that into account in your RE and retirement planning, if you have no pension or are self employed. If ya bought too much RE sucking your $CASH$ dry and no pensions at work; Social Security by itself isn’t near enough [albeit $3000/mo in Social Security is like $600K earning MM interest or 0% interest for $CASH$ accumulation]. If you ever need “a place for MOM” and you’re MOM…think $8000/mo $CASH$ needed a month…the alternative is cheap public care giving in crummy nursing homes that frankly “smells” horrible. That alone would suck a $700K house dry in “reverse mortgages and 2nd mortgages” a year…LOL…if you are retired get the Hades out of debt IOWs. Then there’s the $520/mo Blue Cross payments subtracted from retirement incomes, if you have a pension with them. Otherwise its the whole $1500-2000/mo for like Blue Cross. Its been this bad for decades too. Works ’til ya die? See why I want manufacturing $40/hr seasoned pay experienced folks back again and mandatory health insurance supports by all employers? We need to get health care plans out of POLITICS ASAP or we’re most all screwed in my book in the future. Don’t blame Obama or Trump…this has been brewing since Clinton’s WTO love started in 1999 IMO.

    Grab Your Yuban, Time the Brief:

    “…Has your neighborhood become more diverse over the past decade, or less? The situation varies widely across King County’s nearly 400 census tracts. FYI Guy dug into the data to find the county’s most and least racially diverse places. Check out the interactive map to see how diverse your area is (or isn’t)…”\

    SWE’s take: My neighborhood has lost almost all the Latinos due to repossessions and/or bankruptcies…Asians seem more numerous now. My next door neighbor is an African American family and my friends too…they are realtors BTW.

    “..We never lost faith.” The Kansas City Chiefs are celebrating their first Super Bowl title in a half-century after defeating the 49ers last night, 31-20. And yes, that was Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best in a Super Bowl ad. Most of the ads were light and bright, with an exception that brought some viewers to tears. Also getting buzz: Trump congratulating the wrong city for the win…”

    SWE’s Take: Kansas City is the Superbowl Champs! That can’t hurt the rising value of my KC flipper….LOL

    “…Seattle is becoming a “swanktuary city,” columnist Danny Westneat writes. When you have 1,300 people lined up for a shot at a modest apartment building, but it’s the sky palaces that keep rising in huge waves of development, something is getting seriously out of whack…”

    SWE’s Take: LOL

    Good News: Erik’s cleaned a great Condo up for sale and he’s great at sales’ personality….LOL

  179. 2179

    RE: Nicole @ 2170

    LOL….They Usually call it the Trump Neurosis Syndrome

    Stocks will go down with the elimination of Trump’s Phase I tax cuts in2020 and simultaneous increases to average Joe taxes. If taxes go up RE prices go down whether we like it not. Its a mathematical equation too, whether we like it or not…LOL

    Valentines Day we get our 2020 King County property tax assessments if you own the Title, otherwise your loan escrow and/or bank gets this paperwork. There is a school property tax increase voter ballot on Feb 11th too….LOL, I voted no….but how ever ya vote, please vote….or keep quiet about politics….LOL

  180. 2180

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2173

    We are the same age. I too have a pension from the 20 years in a bank before I switched to real estate when my children were 4, 2 and newborn. But my future isn’t ” If you ever need “a place for MOM” and you’re MOM…think $8000/mo $CASH$ needed a month…the alternative is cheap public care.” I don’t come from a culture where people put “Mom” in a nursing home. I don’t come from a culture where Mom ever lives alone. My father died when my Mom was 43 and my youngest sister was 7. She has never lived alone. She is 89 and still does not live alone or in a nursing home. Her Mom died before her Dad. My Dad’s Mom died at 81 while getting dressed to go to work at her daughter’s pasta business. Her husband died 30 years before her. She never lived alone.

    I don’t really understand a life where Mom lives and eventually dies alone. To me that is very sad, and it has nothing to do with money.

  181. 2181
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2173
    I have no problem getting my condos in Seattle rented out. Condos are easy rentals if you can handle the hoa dues and navigate the rules. I still pay a rental management company because it’s low stress and makes my life easier.

    I like to concentrate on acquiring more rentals and getting them ready to rent or sell, as opposed to managing what I’ve got. If I can get good deals and sell a unit every once in a while that more than pays for the management fees and negative cash flow. I’m playing offense, not defense.

  182. 2182
    kenmorem says:

    By Nicole @ 2170:

    RE: David @ 2168
    “If Bernie Sanders gets elected, even your assets are going to permanently deflate. Starting the instant an appearance of potential electoral victory is in grasp. WAAAY before the actual election.

    Ergo, The Obama Syndrome.”

    I’m so curious- what does that mean?

    david’s just a GOP extreme nut that blames all bad things on obama/hillary/FUTUREPREZHERE.

    just ignore those $1.3T deficits by current admin, during boom times. clearly obummer’s fault.

  183. 2183
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2177 – Oh I agree. Trump got us to essentially 100% of GDP in debt.

    ALL. BY. HIMSELF.

    In just 3 years. What a talent.

  184. 2184

    RE: David @ 2178
    Yes David

    Our military under Obama couldn’t get basics like boots and surveillance night goggles…they had to buy their own. The $200B “biggest” portion of the Trump deficit was reversing an Obama missile/aerospace defense “bankruptcy”, still on twenty year old “floppy disc” technology and with ancient 707 A/C and B-52 they couldn’t fly because they couldn’t fix those old ‘model T” rigs without insanely expensive custom parts made without tooling. I used to help send the soldiers their necessary supplies in care boxes because the military was essentially “broke”.

  185. 2185

    Great Blogs All…I Read The New Ones Today…Time to gulp Yuban and Read the Brief:

    “…Democrats are working furiously to deliver the results of the first 2020 presidential nominating contest, delayed by technology troubles and “inconsistencies.” Watch for updates here and find key takeaways from this giant mess, which casts a harsh spotlight on the caucus system. One caucus official could only laugh when he tried to do his job and wound up starring in an absurd moment on national TV. The candidates today are barreling into New Hampshire, where many voters haven’t made up their minds. (Photo: Dave Kettering / Telegraph Herald via AP)..”

    SWE’s take: They used iPhone Apps for voting? LOL…those are about as secure as Intel Chips “purposely” designed with back doors for hackers [they are BTW]…hey, the DNC server was hacked too. They need paper ballots again…LOL…it was all Trump and the Russians fault…LOL

    “…Transit alert: The Edmonds-Kingston ferry is out of service after a freight train hit a truck this morning, injuring one person and blocking access to the Edmonds terminal. Two Sounder trains are stuck at Mukilteo until the tracks clear…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds like the north portion of I-5 will be a parking lot this morning.

    “…Firefighters rescued a man trapped in his car in floodwaters near Monroe — then they realized he wasn’t the trapped person who had called 911. They then rescued two people who were standing on the roof of a submerged vehicle. Don’t take the risk those drivers did, firefighters are urging the public after Monday’s rescues…”

    SWE’s take: Don’t buy river valley RE.

    “…Should WSDOT address our congested roads? Some lawmakers don’t think so. “Congestion relief” will no longer be one of the state’s transportation goals if new legislation passes, but some are worried about what that means for road-building…”

    SWE’s take: Real OVERPOPULATION environmentalism has been replaced with a Climate Change nothing burger.

    “…President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech tonight comes against a bizarre backdrop, on the eve of his likely acquittal in the Senate. Expect him to use the speech as the starting gun in the sprint toward the November election. Will he talk about impeachment? Don’t do it, Republicans have been pleading. Here’s what to keep an eye on when the speech starts at 6 p.m. Pacific time…”

    SWE’s take: And stop your Tweets too, that brings in campaign cash too…LOL

    “…Real Washingtonians hike in the rain, basking in soggy beauty as the outdoors gets a nice cold bath. “Why would you miss this?” one soaked hiker wondered recently on Squak Mountain. There are ways to do it right, the diehards say. We like these lovely winter hikes not far from Seattle…”

    SWE’s take: Not me….LOL…and I’m a tree hugger born in Seattle.

    “…Microsoft and Amazon have halted nonessential trips to China, and Boeing has paused office openings in Asia. They’re among the Washington businesses affected by the spread of the new coronavirus. More:…”

    SWE’s Take: So the trips are basically useless anyway if today’s MSFT/AMZ stock price increases indicate?

    Good News: The DNC APP security problems makes it clear, them iPhones we’re all addicted to aren’t secure at all folks. Its chaos in Iowa. At least that got communicated.

  186. 2186
    SeattleBoom says:

    Why is there someone posting news headlines and telling us to drink yuban. Is he the local crazy? Does this guy live in a trailer home?

  187. 2187

    Raise Your Yuban Mugs in “Salute”…Time to Read RE Related Articles In the Brief:

    “…The North Bend area will host a federal quarantine site for travelers coming from the Chinese province at the center of the novel coronavirus outbreak, the State Patrol says. In Japan, nine infected cruise-ship passengers were led onto shore today while thousands on board face a two-week quarantine in their cabins. The Gates Foundation has pledged $100 million to fight the global health emergency as the death toll nears 500…”

    SWE’s Take: How many caught it and thought it was just a cold and got rid of it too? No data.

    “…President Donald Trump didn’t mention impeachment in last night’s State of the Union speech, but the nation’s divide over it was on sharp display, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripping her copy of the speech as he finished delivering it. Trump held out the economy as the chief rationale for re-electing him. He also honored talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Here are a fact-check and key takeaways from the speech. (Photo: Patrick Semansky / The Associated Press)..”

    SWE’s take: The Only Trump Promise Left in 2016 is replacement of Obamacare….its been hampered by the top 10% incomes salivating over the high cost health care plans’ TAX DEDUCTIONS. I say let ’em eat cake with no TAX DEDUCTIONS like the majority average Joe incomes, then get employers to offer mandatory “good” [like Blue cross or Group Health] plans for like half price when we all pay in together. Better solutions out there?

    “…Five months of impeachment proceedings are all but certain to end today with President Donald Trump’s acquittal. Here’s what to watch as the afternoon unfolds. You’ll find live coverage at Seattletimes.com…”

    SWE’s Take: Get a real agenda Dems, impeachment is a horrifying agenda to run a campaign on.

    “…Iowa’s Democrats were drawn to the promise of big change in the form of two vastly different candidates. It’s too early to call a winner, but former Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads Sen. Bernie Sanders in the partial results released late yesterday, and Joe Biden is in a precarious spot. Here’s how the nation’s first 2020 contest turned into such a giant tech wreck, leaving Washington state’s Democrats heaving a sigh of relief that the caucus days here are over…”

    SWE’s Take: RE prices collapsing under MASS tax hikes in future? “…I agree. Mayor Pete is audacious – but not because he’s running for President with so little experience. Instead, he’s audacious because his tax agenda is so troubling. I don’t like that he wants to increase the tax burden, especially since it’s easy to fix budget problems with some modest spending restraint. I also don’t like that he wants higher marginal tax rates on households and businesses. Because of exponentially increasing deadweight losses, that’s one of the most economically destructive ways of extracting revenue from the economy’s productive sector…” Like Seattle RE prices.

    “…Banning gas cars sounded “fringe crazy” just a year ago — but it’s increasingly looking like it might happen in Washington state, columnist Danny Westneat writes as a new plan gains traction. Meanwhile, self-driving mass transit arrived on U.S. streets today, made possible in part by Seattle’s late Paul Allen…”

    SWE’s take: I’d rather ban OVERPOPULATION and thin traffic out over the next few decades instead. Where’s the Climate Change jobs and real environmentalism “Waldos”??? LOL

    “…One of Seattle’s most beloved movie screens is going dark. The Cinerama is closing for renovations and has abruptly laid off nearly all of its staff. It’s one of Seattle’s few remaining historic moviehouses…”

    SWE’s Take: Video games and iPhones have replaced international Hollywood B movies anyway.

    Good News: With movies dying out perhaps we’ll read more books now. My gosh, I collect books [which usually precede good screen plays BTW] and I’ll be frank, there are no best selling authors the last few decades that have published at least 5-10 novels. We need to learn how to write books again.

  188. 2188
    Beano says:

    Moving to Washington 2 years ago two things are clear.

    1) Washington, especially greater Seattle, is delusional re: transportation

    2) Virtually nobody, actually believes in climate change.

    Transportation strategy here seems to be – let’s not only stop building roads, let’s cut bandwidth on existing roads via redesign to 1 lane or simple lack of maintenance. Greater Seattle is truly dumb for investing in 1800 tech (rail) when the future of transport will be over roads.

    As for global warming – based on behavior, actual actions taken, almost nobody has changed their way of life. Banning straws and recycling a bottle ain’t it. And don’t get me started on “recycling.” People are delusional if they think recycling is good for the environment (excepting metal recycling – which is a net positive.)

  189. 2189
    Brianna says:

    RE: Beano @ 2182

    Yes, you are right!

    For as many tech jobs we have in this area, why are there only 8% who telecommute? Imagine what allowing employees to work from home would do for climate change and traffic reduction…

  190. 2190
    S-Crow says:

    Real Estate Contract Language: “buyer to walk through prior to closing.” or “buyer to do a walk through prior to closing.”

    Question: What could possibly go wrong with this language? What could possibly go wrong when I release a transaction to record and then get a call from an agent saying they are in the process of walking “through” the house. What does that even (insert sailor language here) mean legally?

    In my opinion the above language is incredibly common in locally written purchase and sale (PSA) contract addenda and about the most stupidly written language that means NOTHING. If I were a seller I would LMAO and never sign off anything like that and never make it a part of my PSA. Likewise if I were paying my agent $38,500 I’d ask them how their “Branch Manager or Managing Broker” can explain how they bless this language if they are reviewing what their agents contracts say. If at all.

    Asking for the entire Escrow industry.

  191. 2191
    Beano says:

    RE: Brianna @ 2183

    Allowing more people to work from home would do wonders for affordable housing, more than anything.

  192. 2192

    RE: S-Crow @ 2184

    The exact language is in the boilerplate written by attorneys and the same for the entire State of WA.

    Almost nothing from a final walk through will stop a closing. Have you ever had to cancel a closing due to a walk through? I’ve had some trash we had to get rid of and sometimes a few items left behind that the buyer didn’t want. But in 30 years I’ve never had a closing cancelled due to a final walk through issue.

    Exception is when there are repairs that need to be done before closing and usually we have receipts for that or the language in the 35R shows a date for checking those 3 to 5 business days before closing.

    Most Relocations require the walk through be 5 business days before closing.

    If the seller doesn’t leave until near or after closing (they have to leave by 9 p.m.), walking through the house before vacated is pretty useless.

    MUCH different on the East Coast and Table Closings. We walk through the property and then go straight from there to “the closing” at the Title Company. West Coast walk throughs are pretty useless with no leverage. Even on the East Coast I’ve never had one not close because of a final walk through item. Worst one I had was the movers took the refrigerator that was supposed to stay and the sellers were already in there new State and no supervising the move.

    Usually we just deal with final walk through items. Not sure why you are all up in arms about it. Did you have to stop the closing???

  193. 2193
    Cap”n says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 2184

    I always thought of that language as the last opportunity to confirm that you are buying what you thought you were. I know one buyer that discovered on walk through that sellers had removed appliances at the last minute. Almost blew up the deal until sellers’ agent coughed up cash to cover the value. I doubt a buyer could use it to bail for any subjective reason if the other contingencies are satisfied. But I could be wrong.

  194. 2194

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 2157
    I Saw 3.45% On FOX Business Channel Just Now

    I enjoy Varney’s pleasant upbeat personality too…its mostly non-partisan too, as business data is.

    Credit Rating and down payments affect your interest rates on loans, so your approved interest rates can be much higher or a “nothing burger” moot point if your credit is poor.

  195. 2195

    Tip Your Yuban Mug and Read the brief:

    “… Downtown shooting suspects charged with murder, accused of firing with ‘no regard to dozens of innocent people’ A chance encounter with a rival gang member led two men to unleash a barrage of bullets on innocent bystanders in downtown Seattle after their intended target had rounded the corner and fled, according to murder and assault charges filed yesterday against Marquise Tolbert and William Toliver. The Jan. 22 shooting at Third Avenue and Pine Street left one person dead and seven injured. (Photo: Amanda Snyder / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: Was the gang member an illegal alien violent MS-13?

    “…Amazon expects to have at least 15,000 employees in Bellevue in the next few years — more than a sevenfold increase. That’s about as many people as Bellevue’s top three employers had, combined, in 2018. The company is detailing more of its plans as it keeps adding space in Seattle, too…”

    SWE’s take: Since AMZ is only about a 2 star “subpar” company and many hate it, here’s the ones that hate AMZ jobs and why their rating is so bad by employees that actually worked there: “…Favoritism is not for the work place ANODE MACHINE OPERATOR (Former Employee) – Pennsylvania avenue York PA – August 31, 2019 To be completely honest after the interview I was really pumped up about the job. after working there and seeing how they conduct themselves in a management versus staff setting I learned otherwise. Since I’m not a fan of beating down a person or company I’ll just say. Nothing was as it seemed and everything that you thought you knew, You would eventually find was wrong.
    Was this review helpful?”…Report Share 1.0
    Only good if you’re looking to go nowhere fast
    Employee (Former Employee) – York, PA – June 20, 2019
    Management seems incredibly helpful and friendly when you first start but the training is nearly nonexistent, as is the general support system you’ll experience with management. Coworkers are friendly but there is a ‘boys club’ feel which is apparent. Disrespect and poor performance are frowned upon but nothing is actually done to combat either. The only surprise I’ve encountered is not being involved in a harassment lawsuit in some capacity.

    “…A man accused of repeatedly climbing into a Lake Tapps grocery store through the ceiling rafters has been arrested after weeks of allegedly evading police and employees, who once spotted a pair of dangling feet. The man may have been living off cigarettes, booze and very expensive cheese…”

    SWE’s Take: The homeless have to eat too.

    “…Rivers are spilling over their banks, and more rain and flooding lie ahead for the Puget Sound area, according to the National Weather Service. But after the skies finish dumping, we could get two dry days in a row — something we haven’t had since Christmas. Gov. Jay Inslee has issued a weather-related emergency proclamation for 19 counties. ..”

    SWE’s Take: The Maple Valley roads may close [or they already may be closed?] and homes flooded/destroyed, the flood warning there is currently Phase 3. https://green2.kingcounty.gov/rivergagedata/gage-data.aspx?r=green

    “…Seattle-area wage growth is slowing down — or is it? A federal report says the average pay here grew only about half as fast as the nation as a whole last year, but local economists are shaking their heads…”

    SWE’s Take: If I was a betting man, I’d go with the federal report on wage rates trending down in Seattle area….do any of us really trust local government to give us straight data anymore?

    “…”We ache with the deepest sorrow”: The families of two Enumclaw teenagers who were found dead Tuesday near Mud Mountain Dam on the White River are expressing their sorrow and thanking first responders for their “urgent and tireless effort.” Austin Grote, 18, and Aleecia McAskill, 17, disappeared Saturday….”

    SWE’s Take: Hiking in the slosh and cold is pushed as the cool thing about Seattle….its deadly too.

    “…Less than a year after the indictment of an Enumclaw-area drainage commissioner for allegedly stealing more than $460,000 in public money, the Legislature has a set of reform bills to consider. Some of the reforms are good ideas; others should be rejected, The Seattle Times editorial board writes. And editorial cartoonist David Horsey chimes in on the Iowa caucus chaos. ..”

    SWE’s take: Most all politicians are crooks…LOL

    Good News: Most of us aren’t politicians…LOL

  196. 2196
    sfrz says:

    Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus
    #ChinaCoronaVirus US stock mkts believe China central bank stimulus will contain virus economic contagion in China & global. First 3 days this week $243B liquidity injected. More to come. Govt bond yields fall <3%, lowest since 2015. Won't work. Global manuf & commodities to fall

  197. 2197
    David says:

    By Beano @ 2185:

    RE: Brianna @ 2183

    Allowing more people to work from home would do wonders for affordable housing, more than anything.

    “work from home” – aka How to kill your career without anyone knowing about it.

  198. 2198
    Matt P says:

    Townhouse unit beside me listed for the same as mine on Friday and went pending Tuesday on the offer review date. I bought mine for $25k below that list price in May and looking at comps, think this one will go for $25k above list – there was a ton of traffic. Mine is the middle unit of 3- but has the exact same square footage and layout. Maybe being on the end is worth $50k, but I doubt it. Market seems to be heating up again.

  199. 2199
  200. 2200
    Deerhawke says:

    Most recent NWMLS Stats. Go to page 2 for the residential stats.

    http://members.nwmls.com/library/content/statistics/2020/jan/KCBreakouts.pdf

  201. 2201

    Great Blogs All I Read All the New Ones….They All Made Me Think….Still Raining and Dark This Morning…I had Mine, Get Your Yuban and read RE related articles from the Brief:

    No One Has to Ask Where the Hades I Got the Bizarre News Reference Either…LOL…its all real news from the Seattle Times…[albeit it still may be bizarre at times, but real none-the-less].

    “… Drenched region braces for windstorm, more flooding
    Widespread flooding closed major roadways around the region, including part of Newport Way Southwest in Issaquah, and forced residents out of their homes yesterday. We’re in for more: Some rivers are building toward their crest today, and a cold windstorm is expected to blow in tonight. Several school districts have delayed classes today, and Sounder North trains are not running to Edmonds, Mukilteo and Everett because of soggy slopes. (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: I learned something today, a King County Phase III flood warning likely means “about to crest [spill over the river bank]”. Good article, but if your home was built below the current crest line, you’re already doomed. What does the Snohomish valley farmland look like now, a flooded swamp? I know one thing about river flooding, it gets worse after a temperature increase from snow melt [we’re up to 50 degrees today from 35-40 a few days ago] and the rivers keep getting higher even days after the rain stops. Is Kent Valley now filling with water too?

    “…Transit alert: Light-rail service is shutting down for the weekend in downtown Seattle as crews link up tracks to the Eastside. Here’s some help with getting around during the closure, which starts tonight…”

    SWE’s Take: I’m laughing about Dave’s warning about telework instead of driving in this “shutdown” traffic jam; telework is also a good way to destroy a career? LOL Dave, you’re getting too pampered in Florida laughing at us drenched rats in Seattle. Did you grab up a hurricane mansion foreclosure? I heard there’s beautiful seaside mansions cheap out there…LOL…I can see you sipping a cool cocktail on your sunny beach chair by the pool and sandy beach now…LOL

    “…Bidding wars for homes. Open houses that feel more like stampedes. Brokers in the Puget Sound area are seeing signs of a shift back to a sizzling seller’s market as prices rise. See what’s happening around you with this area-by-area look…”

    SWE’s Take: Erik is smiling with his Condo hoard…he’s a land baron now? LOL

    “…Hundreds of aerospace suppliers in Washington are struggling to hold on amid the 737 MAX crisis. Some have cut workers, and they have plenty more to worry about ahead…”

    SWE’s Take: I wonder now if MAX 8 layoffs at Boeing are masked with “mandatory” transfers east out of Seattle, then they just quit? Come on man, if the parts suppliers are getting pink slips, so are Renton assemblers…

    “…
    Tonight’s Democratic presidential debate is likely to be scorching, with candidates urgently needing to show strength after this week’s political earthquakes shook up the field. Here are five big questions that loom over the debate in New Hampshire, which votes next week. Maybe by then, we’ll finally know who won in the Iowa mess, which keeps getting more tangled. New Hampshire is sure its primary will be smoother: “You can’t hack a pencil.”…”

    SWE’s Take: With iPhone APPs and Intel chips in laptops about as secure as swiss cheese holes….Paper ballots is much safer and only takes a few more hours to count anyway. BTW, no MSFT 2020 patches in my Windows 2007 professional series O/S since Dec 2019 and it works faster than before…LOL…it appears to be a moot point so far.

    “…Developers of The Emerald bet that high-end buyers would be willing to live a car-free lifestyle. The tower near Pike Place Market has only 62 parking stalls for its 262 luxury condos. This comes after years of predictions from developers and brokers that a critical mass of Seattle’s condo buyers are ready to go car-free. Let’s see if they were right in this test case. (Image courtesy of Steel Blue)…”

    SWE’s take: Great article Seattle Times…did you mention “bidding wars” for parking in Seattle, like $2000/mo a piece too….LOL…add that to the $2000/mo HOA fee and we haven’t added in the approx $1000+ a month property tax yet either…LOL

    “… The Chinese doctor who was silenced when he tried to sound a warning about the new coronavirus has died of the illness. Li Wenliang, 34, had become a hero to many. More: Quarantined travelers sent to a North Bend site would get a private room with a view of the forest. The quarantine center there is ready; peek inside…”

    SWE’s take: How many got well or much better with treatments? The coronavirus flu shot is getting invented by American researchers, its on its likely on its way complete in 3 months, the Trump’s CDC says…sounds like that’s one American intellectual property research effort the Chinese haven’ stole from America yet…flu virus shots…LOL…the Phase I China trade deal is still on too.

    “…The girlfriend of a downtown Seattle shooting suspect drove him and a second alleged shooter to Las Vegas and hid them in a hotel room, prosecutors say. They’ve charged Daaoshara Galbert with a felony in the shooting at Third and Pine last month that killed one person and injured seven others…”

    SWE’s take: Great job law enforcement! I bet the FBI helped too.

    “…True love never runs smooth. Loving Seattle includes endless gray skies and construction traffic. But Douglas firs, scenic ferry rides and plates of fresh seafood more than make up for a few flaws. This valentine to Seattle spotlights five things to love about the Emerald City. ..”

    SWE’s take: Let’s hope that seafood you are gobbling down isn’t farmed or worse yet, they caught it in Puget Sound mercury contaminated…LOL

    Good News: At least 30% of alleged “wild” salmon is real wild from Alaska [not farmed or from toxic coastlands]…even with almost no FDA checks. Roll the dice and get lucky or “just eat other meat and protein sources”. That’s what I do. Simple oat meal is full of protein BTW.

  202. 2202
    Beano says:

    By David @ 2191:

    By Beano @ 2185:

    RE: Brianna @ 2183

    Allowing more people to work from home would do wonders for affordable housing, more than anything.

    “work from home” – aka How to kill your career without anyone knowing about it.

    RE: David @ 2191

    Exactly!

    Thus I want more people to stay home.

  203. 2203
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2194
    City of Seattle is .5 months of inventory and .72 months of inventory for an average of .61 months of inventory in the city of Seattle. One would think prices in Seattle are about to go up more than surrounding areas this spring based on supply and demand. Hopefully we have strong price appreciation until 2022 so I can own some Seattle real estate free and clear.

  204. 2204
    N says:

    @ Erik – If you look carefully Condos are down YOY and months of inventory stands at 2.17. I agree with your comment though. It’s kinda silly to read too much into January anyways, these are sales from December and November but they certainly point to a hot market.

  205. 2205
    uwp says:

    Anecdotal data:
    Our house went pending in a week, above list, with a waived inspection and favorable close date. We had a ton of traffic even as a somewhat flawed house. Feeling good at the moment, but afraid to jinx anything until the whole thing is closed.

    From watching the activity the last few weeks, I feel lucky that we were able to buy at the end of last year. I went to this open house (https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/114-NW-77th-St-98117/home/495056) because it’s in our new neighborhood, and not too far off from what we bought… it felt like the same craziness of 2016/2017. I don’t know what will happen next month, or next year, but it’s hot out there at the moment.

  206. 2206
    sfrz says:

    RE: uwp @ 2198 – Future bag holders. Fooked.

  207. 2207
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 2197
    I do not disagree the condo market is likely gonna be flat for a while. Possibly until the next recession. There is a lot more condo inventory coming too. That’s why I begrudgingly moved to houses. Condos are so easy and require so little capital compared to houses. That house I bought in Seattle at the auction last February is still being remodeled. So much money and so much time it’s taking! It is draining me. It does look really nice though and if I had it to do over, I’d probably do it again. Great location for appreciation and rental in Rainier View. I couldn’t pass up $311k for this 4br beauty.

    I’m gonna sell my houses to capture the appreciation in 2022 and use the proceeds to pay off condos. Seems like a pretty good plan to lock in some easy cashflow until the end.

  208. 2208
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 2200
    I meant the house I bought last September*

  209. 2209
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 2198
    Nice neighborhood! I don’t own anything in that neighborhood, but I’d like to.

  210. 2210
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: uwp @ 2198

    Congratulations on your purchase and your sale. It is tough to time markets, but I think you pulled it off on both sides.

    I am beginning to see all the signs of a seller’s market. Offer review dates. Packed open houses. Multiple offers. Love letters. When the property is especially nice or underpriced (or both) 7-8 offer shootouts with escalators. Unsolicited presale offers on new construction.

    It is not as bad as 2017, but remember that 2017 had 2016 as a warm up. I think this year may be more like 2016 than the panic and desperation of 2017.

    Hard to say actually because the market is delayed because of all the rain. Hard to get a house fixed or landscaped with more than a month of continual rain. I think this year’s spring market might be pushed back a month like last year.

  211. 2211

    Erik Got a Gold plated Mug for His Yuban, its already Filled and His Condos are Ready to Rent; read the Brief:

    “… The Washington State Patrol Fire Training Academy near North Bend stands ready as a quarantine site for people returning to the United States from the Chinese province at the center of the new coronavirus outbreak. This comes amid a hurried global effort to contain the outbreak, from quarantining cruise-ship passengers to sharply restricting air travel. Read more, and find answers to common questions…”

    SWE’s Take: No data on those recovered from coronavirus, but not all catching it are all dead now?…..its another data-less conundrum? We just had a 61 YO American citizen die in China with it….but it was Chinese hospitals, not American ones. BTW, the very young and the very old dying of flu has always been the risk age groups. Get your “new” coronavirus flu shot later this year when it becomes available?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/coronavirus-kills-american-citizen-in-china-say-officials

    The rest of the Brief was just regurgitation of yesterday’s news.

    Good News: The stock market popped back up again this week.

  212. 2212
    Blurtman says:

    By uwp @ 2198:

    From watching the activity the last few weeks, I feel lucky that we were able to buy at the end of last year. I went to this open house (https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/114-NW-77th-St-98117/home/495056) because it’s in our new neighborhood, and not too far off from what we bought… it felt like the same craziness of 2016/2017. I don’t know what will happen next month, or next year, but it’s hot out there at the moment.

    A 1928 crap box with radiators (!) for $1.2 million!? Hell yeah, fleece those suckers!

  213. 2213
    Sam says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2014
    I am not on Twitter. If any one is, maybe they can ask “The Tim” to share how we can keep the blog alive.

    His Twitter handle seems to be:
    https://twitter.com/seattlebubble?lang=en

    Does anyone know how and from where Tim used to get the data? If we knew that, we could setup a different blog where we can post charts and have folks comment just like here.

  214. 2214

    While Erik the Land Baron is Busy Counting His Gold “Condo” Rent Coins, He’ll Join Us Later With His Yuban Mug Too, Smiling, While Reading the Seattle Times Brief:

    Ardelle, its the brief Brief now, no regurgitated stories allowed, just recent new ones….LOL…I hope this is better for your evaluation style:

    “…Board members “allowed Boeing to become a culture of cash extraction instead of engineering,” according to one influential analyst. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Boeing has COMPLETELY failed at mentoring a future seasoned/skilled engineering/technical workforce….like undegreed folks with 5-10 years experience to train the new “green Poptart degreed folks” that were never trained on-the-job specialized Boeing job source code skills in college. This is the result, MAX 8.

    “…Australia’s Geelong Project steers students away from homelessness and dropping out before their situation can become a crisis. It all starts with a survey. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: In Seattle, even if they work…its still tent city [with no family or friends to mooch off or illegally sublet rent with] because their wages don’t support our “per capita” insane rents….they didn’t all drop out here, they were “wild fire” smoked out with high priced rent and no one to get help from.

    Good News: Tiny Home models were introduced at Kent City Hall Last Thursday’s Toastmasters….prices for tiny homes? My estimate is about $10-20K each for 200-300 SF homes with plumbing and electrical included, but no way to pay for utilities or taxes; let alone space for the homelessness community tiny home units.

  215. 2215

    RE: Blurtman @ 2205
    Seattle Museum Piece 1920 100 Year Homes

    Are found with electric wiring stapled to the ceiling too…I’ve seen the subpar remodeling work around here…its never ending EXPENSE too. The plastic covering the foundation/chimney cracks up crumbles fast too…LOL…then the basements leak worse…

    Make sure your brick chimney has a steel insert in it now, or you’ve been screwed. I’d avoid wood decks rotting in the rain, they collapse and rot in no time around here. Only buy top hill land, drain on your neighbors, instead of them on you…LOL

  216. 2216
    Deerhawke says:

    Truly odd modern in Greenlake. Not only do they supply a headboard in the master, but they carry it all the way up to and across the ceiling. So odd.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2207-N-59th-St-98103/home/305731

  217. 2217

    RE: Blurtman @ 2205

    The seller didn’t do that. The buyers did it to one another. Pretty big bid up on that.

    But when you over the years call everything old a crap box, I wonder if you just don’t like old houses. Many people do.

  218. 2218

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2203

    Waiting for more sold prices, but I just checked your area and there were a few crazy bid ups like the townhome in Freemont and the one Blurtman posted, but generally I’m not seeing anything that looks 2016 or 2017.

    I did an appreciation check using a method I like which is to only look at split entry homes as that never weights to heavily on a mix of new vs old or big vs small or townhomes vs single family homes. That puts 2017 at about 15% appreciation and 2018 and 2019 at 3% give or take appreciation. I think we’re looking at 7% this year. I don’t see multiple offers getting back up to 85% or even the prior 66%. More likely up from 10% to 30% from what I’m seeing so far as to closings that started and ended in 2020.

  219. 2219
    don says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2209

    That effect is bizzare, I wonder who was in charge of design, builder or architect?

    The concealed perimeter lighting in the one bath looks spooky. The whole interior looks a bit harsh to me. Fireplace in a corner??

    BTW, What is your experience with the clearcoat wood siding? I’ve always thought it was a short period trend, but people keep doing it. I remember watching a for-the-owner-custom built about 10 yrs ago. Three years later the wood was turning black, and shortly painters were up sanding and recoating.

  220. 2220
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: don @ 2212

    I met the builder this weekend and was tempted to ask, but could not find a diplomatic way to say what I was thinking. (Say buddy…that is the weirdest damn bed I have ever seen. Do you like to jump on the bed? Or do you have an especially active sex life? Or is this just part of your fantasy life? Or what? I guess what I am trying to say here is … what could you possibly have been thinking. I mean… how could that help you sell a $2+ million spec house?)

    My experience with clearcoat siding is that it needs to be recoated every summer. Everyone says they will do it, but I have only met one person (an architect) who did.

  221. 2221

    RE: Beano @ 2182
    Great Comment Beano, You can take Over for SWE…LOL

    I’d add not only are the roads most the only methods to work, but electric cars that charge mainly at night face an electric grid capacity rolling blackout that solar cells won’t help with [they don’t work at night]…then too, where’s the “hypothetical” Climate Change jobs they promised us decades ago? Where’s Waldo? I see Chinese got all the lithium battery and solar cell jobs anyway.

    Grasping at straws…LOL..Hades plastic lined canned foods have always put plastic in our blood, 1000s of times more worse than floating plastic in the oceans…hasn’t killed anyone in a century anyway….LOL

    Empty Buses and empty trains pollute too and how much is a Hybrid Bus? $10M each? Versus $2M for a diesel? Does anyone do life cycle cost justification analysis anymore? I hear even Tesla is recently shutting production down in America because they can’t get parts from coronavirus infected China…LOL

  222. 2222

    Great Comments All….Now Grab Your Mugs, Fill ’em With Yuban and Read the brief “Brief”

    “….The Seattle City Council will vote today on whether to halt evictions in winter months. If it passes, Seattle would be the first city in the nation to adopt such a broad ban. Here’s what we know about how it would work. Meanwhile, a West Seattle church has signed up to host a “safe lot” for people living in their cars, and more are likely on the way….”

    SWE’s Take: Another great reason not to be landlord in Seattle.

    “…As the new coronavirus spreads, a dangerous epidemic of racism looms. Asian Americans in the Seattle area and nationwide have already reported discrimination due to the virus. Let’s take a collective breath and not perpetuate racist patterns, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes..”

    SWE’s Take: Allegations of Racism of Chinese because of coronavirus?…Hades even the American medical doctors/nurses recommend wearing masks if you have cold/flu symptoms so folks avoid you…and your cough containment is better. I see mostly Asians wearing masks all over the Seattle area BTW.

    “…Washington’s new paid family and medical leave program is so popular, the state can’t keep up with applications. More than 20,000 people have applied since the program went live three weeks ago, and residents are having to wait longer than expected to get the money. Here’s help navigating the program…”

    SWE’s take: Who pays it and how do they get the money?

    “…Happy 20th birthday to the Gates Foundation, which has grown to include an endowment of nearly $47 billion. What kind of difference will the foundation make in the future? Bill and Melinda Gates are sharing a letter that lays out their biggest priorities…”

    SWE’s take: How much got put into the clogged Seattle freeways MSFT depends on? How much got poured into fighting Seattle’s homelessness? $0?

    “…If Washington lawmakers care about the environment and disadvantaged residents, they should keep prioritizing congestion and freight mobility. Proposals to do otherwise are misguided and self-serving, writes The Seattle Times editorial board. ..”

    SWE’s take: IOWs OVERPOPULATION and growth are more important than containing sewage waste drainage….anyone else figured out with the idiotic comment above means?

    Good News: Jack in the Box told me the plastic straws are here to stay….LOL

  223. 2223
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2214 – Having owned sailboats as well as the business of manufacturing boats for a while – NEVER spec exposed wood. If you do, use teak and don’t coat it. Let it weather.

    That being said, Awlgrip has a new(ish) coating that is supposed to last 5 years before replacement. Last I checked it was about $180/quart ($500/gallon?)

  224. 2224
    kenmorem says:

    By Deerhawke @ 2213:

    RE: don @ 2212

    I met the builder this weekend and was tempted to ask, but could not find a diplomatic way to say what I was thinking. (Say buddy…that is the weirdest damn bed I have ever seen. Do you like to jump on the bed? Or do you have an especially active sex life? Or is this just part of your fantasy life? Or what? I guess what I am trying to say here is … what could you possibly have been thinking. I mean… how could that help you sell a $2+ million spec house?)

    My experience with clearcoat siding is that it needs to be recoated every summer. Everyone says they will do it, but I have only met one person (an architect) who did.

    DH: what kind of deck material is that on the roof? almost looks like a LVT that you would use on the inside of a house.

  225. 2225
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2203

    >> It is not as bad as 2017, but remember that 2017 had 2016 as a warm up. I think this year may be more like 2016 than the panic and desperation of 2017.

    Does anyone remember Deerhawke characterizing 2017 as “panic and desperation” during 2017? Me neither.

  226. 2226
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 2218
    I remember Deerhawke saying he was gonna be all cash by 2020.

    Deerhawke was wrong, but he writes well and has a pretty good understanding of what is going on. Not great, but good.

    You were totally wrong and you got people that cannot understand logic to follow your bad prediction.

  227. 2227
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 2219 – I think Justme is going to give up food. I mean it is going up in price.

    Every time I go into a Whole Foods, etc I think OMG this place is gonna shut down soon.

  228. 2228
    Sfrz says:

    RE: Erik @ 2219 – and you’re the brains on here that suggests following fraudulent hucksters. Go bankrupt! Ruin your credit! Buy condos, get rich quick! File again!

  229. 2229

    Pull Up a Chair, Eat Healthy, Think Healthy and Make Better RE Business Decisions, Here, I’ll fill Your Mug With More Yuban and Read the Brief Brief:

    “…The first recipe Yuie Wiborg learned to make in her mother’s Bangkok restaurant, at age 11, was papaya salad. Now Wiborg, 42, owns Soi on Capitol Hill and Banyan Tree in Kent. She’s sharing the story of her journey — and her amazing papaya salad recipe. Continuing on this tasty Thai theme, let’s visit Kiin Kiin Thai Eating Room in Greenwood, where another chef is recreating her favorite street-vendor foods. (Photo: Amanda Snyder / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: I am healthy and older, as a result, have a very slow metabolism, requiring like 1400 cal/day to maintain a 200+ LB muscular 6’1″ “low fat %” physique, so can’t eat a lot of low nutritious “carb” foods; like white flour, white rice and pasta noodles…I love noodles but they don’t love me…LOL..try more pure fruits and vegetables “instead” only, if you’re regulating calories like me.

    “…Should an autonomous vehicle swerve into a pedestrian or stay its course when facing a collision? Seattle U is launching a free, online course for the public that explores ethical issues around artificial intelligence, from cars to Alexa and facial recognition…”

    SWE’s take: We have no artificial intelligence in self driving cars if is this critical safety engineering bug isn’t fixed. I swerve in the empty left lanes at times to avoid the village idiot drivers trying to plow me down…LOL…I’d also make a split second decision in the pedestrian’s favor too, if needed. But then I’m an experienced muscle car driver from the 70s with an excellent driving history, we were high school trained to drive then and can even drive “old fashion” manual transmissions.

    “…Soon, you can fly from Boeing Field to Portland for $49; here’s how that stacks up against other ways of getting there…”

    SWE’s Take: Taking the airplane instead of the car causes more green house gas. Hades, a drive to Portland is a couple three hours, you can spend more time in airport security lines than that…LOL

    “…The Chinese military stole 145 million Americans’ personal data, the Justice Department says. It’s charged four members with breaking into the networks of the Equifax credit-reporting agency in 2017, in one of the most brazen hacks in history. China is firing back with its own accusations against the U.S…”

    SWE’s Take: And Lifelock simply doesn’t work either. Try restricting yourself to just one credit/debit card, put less hooks and hacker bait on your phish line…LOL

    Good News: Trump’s trying to help the Biden Camp? He’s recommending voting for the least powerful Democrats…LOL

  230. 2230

    RE: David @ 2216
    I Have a Board Member Friend Who Owns His Own Small Plane

    He rarely flies it all anymore and the $500-1000/mo airport rental space and mandatory maintenance is eating him alive…he tells me everyone is selling their planes and boats now. Engine rebuilds top $25K and Wings are like $15K…dump your boats and planes for $CASH$ now…LOL

  231. 2231

    Bezos Just Sold Like $4B of His Stock Today

    Insider trading trending AMZ stock market advice or just profit grabbing?

  232. 2232
    Erik says:

    RE: Sfrz @ 2221
    Strange comment and I don’t really understand.

    I started investing in real estate while doing mechanical engineering grad school at UW and remodeling my first condo and doing stress analysis on the 787 airplane wing. I made what I thought was a ton of money at the time by fixing up a condo and selling it. Real estate is wayyy easier than my day job or grad school. Nevertheless, I finished grad school and my focus is real estate.

    I’m conservative in my investments. I don’t even like the risk of the stock market. I buy real estate, fix it, refinance it, and reuse the money I get back to buy more. In 2022 I’m probably gonna sell some real estate if the market is up and pay off some mortgages so I can turn this side hobby into a money producing machine.

    You should pay attention to what I’m doing as I’m pretty transparent. I’m going to be very wealthy and you can too. I’m not misleading anyone or keeping secrets. If you got past your ego and did what I’m doing, you’d be wealthy in 10 years. If you are poor like I was not long ago, you should by something, live in it 2 years and sell it to generate that money to reuse.

  233. 2233
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2220
    Justme has the mind of someone that lives hand to mouth their entire life. I’m not sure how to help him/her.

  234. 2234
    dw8928@outlook.com says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2223:

    RE: David @ 2216
    I Have a Board Member Friend Who Owns His Own Small Plane

    He rarely flies it all anymore and the $500-1000/mo airport rental space and mandatory maintenance is eating him alive…he tells me everyone is selling their planes and boats now. Engine rebuilds top $25K and Wings are like $15K…dump your boats and planes for $CASH$ now…LOL

    Interesting, I’m still down in Florida trying to wait out this murder trial they have me ‘subpoenaed’ for that is now pushed back til April.

    I’ve been pricing Center Console boats and started looking at the fuel costs to run an hour offshore and back. The basic number is .4 gallons gas per horsepower (.4 diesel) per hour wide open.

    This really adds up. My Seattle trawler (diesel) was cheap by comparison.

    Airplanes have been that expensive to operate for a long time. Then they wonder why general aviation is dying.

  235. 2235
    David says:

    By Erik @ 2226:

    RE: David @ 2220
    Justme has the mind of someone that lives hand to mouth their entire life. I’m not sure how to help him/her.

    I don’t know why he comes in here if real estate is so ridiculous to him. It is simply impossible to argue that real estate is a bad investment long-term (even short term in Seattle).

    I like to see people succeed, so let’s hope he comes around.

  236. 2236
    Market Psychologist says:

    Bernie will win!!!!

  237. 2237
    David says:

    By Market Psychologist @ 2229:

    Bernie will win!!!!

    Sell all your stocks NOW.

  238. 2238
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 2217

    I don’t know what that material is. I didn’t go up to the roof. Maybe some kind of interlocking tile meant to look like wood over a simple PVC or TPO membrane.

    RE: Justme @ 2218 – Actually if you don’t remember what I wrote about the panic and desperation of 2017, you should go back and re-read what I wrote in 2017. Enjoy.

    RE: Erik @ 2219 – Erik, there is a famous quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes. He was challenged on whether he had been wrong and changed his mind. He responded, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? “. In my case, only time will tell whether I made a right or wrong call on the spring of 2020. If I make a lot of money selling in this spring market, I was right. If I lose a lot of money, I was wrong. Pretty simple metric.

  239. 2239
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 2230
    Ummm… THIS is why you might want to sell your stocks now!
    https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1227464224445734917?s=19

    I’m shorting the S&P this week. China cannot contain this thing!

  240. 2240

    Grab Your Yuban Mug, Read the brief Brief:

    “…More rain is threatening to cut off a Fall City community as a main road crumbles. Underneath the deep crack on 356th Drive Southeast is a slow-moving slide that could soon worsen. King County has told residents to evacuate so they don’t get stranded. Bob Moe, above, says he isn’t going anywhere: “I’ve got plenty of food.” (Photo: Alan Berner / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Rain and temperature fluctuation causes sink holes and land slides….plant a tree instead.

    “…The relapse rate for substance use disorders is estimated to be between 40% and 60%. This is similar to relapse for other chronic diseases such as asthma and high blood pressure. The good news is that, with the right tools, addiction is highly treatable and manageable…”

    SWE’s Take: A 40-60% failure rate is not good news. It sounds hopeless.

    “…Bellevue schools appear to be getting a $675 million infusion, the largest bond the district has asked for. Voters considered bonds or levies in nine King County school districts. Here’s how they fared in last night’s results…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds just like that HUGE pile of money the Joker burned on the Batman movie. What good did it do?

    “…Nada, zip, zero. Boeing recorded an all-time low for orders won in January, and delivered just 13 jets. Experts are questioning whether Boeing’s board of directors is capable of righting the company…”

    SWE’s Take: Borrow more billions to keep the company afloat.

    “…”Everybody can find something to relate to in opera.” But many people aren’t looking. Seattle Opera is at the forefront in making the centuries-old art form welcoming and relevant to diverse audiences, thanks in large part to Naomi André, its inaugural scholar in residence. She’s already making a difference….”

    SWE’s Take: I dated a lead opera singer [she’s a director now] who got me front stage seats tickets….read the Libretto before you see the opera, or you’ll be hopelessly bored and lost…LOL

    “…Limited-income seniors, disabled homeowners and veterans in Washington state are getting a break, with a more generous property-tax exemption taking effect this year. This is past due and needs to be communicated broadly so everyone eligible is aware of the opportunity, writes The Seattle Times editorial board…”

    SWE’s Take: How much break and who’s paying for it? How do you do the paperwork? Right now if ya make more than $20/hr they think you’re rich and must pay the whole price..LOL

    Good News: Friday’s Valentines Day….even the old single SWE is getting into the swing of things, I’ve been invited to a local casino style church this weekend by a new friend from Covington, the 28 YO lady shares my science interest in the connection between Christianity and recent Ancient Aliens discoveries. She likes my red Charger too…LOL

  241. 2241

    RE: Blake @ 2232
    LOL Blake:

    Stocks climbed about 50+% since Obama at the Helm [18000 to 29000] and without quantitative easing welfare to the banksters too. I wonder if the high bracket tax reduction is better than QE? At least its free to the middle income phase I tax table breaks too. Imagine if Bernie wins, what your new higher rate tax tables will do? LOL

  242. 2242

    Ya Gotta Budget Hard to Get a Seattle Roof if You Work for Like Avg Joe $20/hr Pay to Stay Out of Tent City

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/32-percent-of-workers-run-out-of-cash-before-payday.html

    Obviously this isn’t happening.

  243. 2243
    biliruben says:

    RE: David @ 2228

    As someone who is in the process to looking to buy his 4th house, and has received a much larger check at each sale than at purchase, I can speak with confidence…

    … Real Estate is absolutely an incredibly bad investment long-term. Short-term. Any term.

    If you are honest with yourself, and take into account all the money spent on Realtor fees, maintenance, new roofs, burst pipes, updating – Real Estate is a loser. On paper we’ve made 100s of thousands of dollars without taking these into account. In reality, Real Estate is a money pit. A big loser. Yes you can get lucky hitting the perfect storm of geography and time period, and eek out of few cents on the dollar, particularly if you do the work yourself and don’t pay yourself, but nothing compared the stock market.

    If you don’t need RE to have a roof over your head, skip it.

  244. 2244
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 2231
    Yes, I do the same thing. You are probably right more often than me, I was just noticing we were a little off last time.

    I think we got caught up in the business cycle thinking at the end of the business cycle, housing prices would drop. To paraphrase what you said earlier, 5 of the past 6 recessions didn’t have a drop in housing prices. We probably need the end of the business cycle and a major event or a have the business cycle bottom coincide with the bottom of the land value cycle or long term cycle to see real estate values go down significantly.

  245. 2245
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 2237 – That’s a lot of cycles.

  246. 2246
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 2238
    Okay.

    There are a lot of cycles out there. The 3 cycles that affect real estate are as follows:
    1. Business cycle
    2. Land value cycle(real estate cycle)
    3. Long term cycle(ends in deleveraging)

    I’m thinking the business cycle bottomed December 2018 and that’s when the chicken littles we’re going nuts screaming “the sky is falling!” The other 2 cycles were not at a bottom at that time, so housing values fairly stayed constant.

    I think the long term cycle bottomed in the Great Recession and that only happens 50-100 years, so we likely have time before that impacts us again. The business cycle and land value cycle need to bottom at the same time if values do go down in Seattle. Maybe a war or some other catastrophic event could trigger that?

  247. 2247
    David says:

    By biliruben @ 2236:

    RE: David @ 2228

    As someone who is in the process to looking to buy his 4th house, and has received a much larger check at each sale than at purchase, I can speak with confidence…

    … Real Estate is absolutely an incredibly bad investment long-term. Short-term. Any term.

    If you are honest with yourself, and take into account all the money spent on Realtor fees, maintenance, new roofs, burst pipes, updating – Real Estate is a loser. On paper we’ve made 100s of thousands of dollars without taking these into account. In reality, Real Estate is a money pit. A big loser. Yes you can get lucky hitting the perfect storm of geography and time period, and eek out of few cents on the dollar, particularly if you do the work yourself and don’t pay yourself, but nothing compared the stock market.

    If you don’t need RE to have a roof over your head, skip it.

    Why are you buying another house?

  248. 2248
    Beano says:

    By David @ 2240:

    By biliruben @ 2236:

    RE: David @ 2228

    As someone who is in the process to looking to buy his 4th house, and has received a much larger check at each sale than at purchase, I can speak with confidence…

    … Real Estate is absolutely an incredibly bad investment long-term. Short-term. Any term.

    If you are honest with yourself, and take into account all the money spent on Realtor fees, maintenance, new roofs, burst pipes, updating – Real Estate is a loser. On paper we’ve made 100s of thousands of dollars without taking these into account. In reality, Real Estate is a money pit. A big loser. Yes you can get lucky hitting the perfect storm of geography and time period, and eek out of few cents on the dollar, particularly if you do the work yourself and don’t pay yourself, but nothing compared the stock market.

    If you don’t need RE to have a roof over your head, skip it.

    Why are you buying another house?

    Yeah this guy sucks at persuasion. He’s right about people omitting maintenance expenses when calculating returns on RE.

  249. 2249
    biliruben says:

    Because I need a roof over my head. Thought that was obvious.

  250. 2250
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: biliruben @ 2242 – Haha. It’s not so obvious to some on this site! They think the primary purpose of residential real estate is investing. Buying as a primary residence does not compute.

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