About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

3,031 comments:

  1. 3001
    ruxpert says:

    Seattle housing market sees ‘massive changes’ in post-lockdown landscape
    – Across King County, home prices continue to rise, …
    By Nick Bowman – August 19, 2020
    https://mynorthwest.com/2099265/seattle-housing-market-changes-post-pandemic/?

  2. 3002
    ruxpert says:

    Michael Hudson – re: Real Estate sector, etc.
    Imagining How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Are Destroying Us
    https://youtu.be/JX9wXwN55qk

    Trump’s “Bank and Landlord Relief” bill
    https://michael-hudson.com/2020/05/trumps-bank-and-landlord-relief-bill/

  3. 3003
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 2906
    I have a lot of Seahawks clothes and a Seahawks hat I wear a lot in my profile picture. I also have a Seahawks logo on my debit/credit cards. I’ll have to let those go.

  4. 3004
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 2916 – It takes a former Seattleite to recognize Seattle is a bubble full of radicals. LOL.

  5. 3005

    Hey….You Trump Hater Politically Bent Comments Have an Empty Agenda Mug Except Attack Any View But “No Agenda Biden”….the rest of you “Silent Majority” can fill your America First agenda mug with coffee and read the brief:

    “… Making the best of going back to school … at home
    It’s a wildly challenging time to be a parent as kids head back to their screens. Here’s our survival guide, with advice from experts on how to help your children — and yourself. Seattle-area districts are laying out what this complicated fall will look like, and experts are providing tips on setting the stage for better learning than last spring. But as some parents pony up money for private instruction, columnist Naomi Ishisaka writes, local families are wrestling with concerns over who might be left behind. (Illustration by Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s take: Let’s Do a Poll….how many clients/students prefer online to face to face schools? Last poll like that I read was 97% are against online schools. Why wouldn’t they “no agenda Biden Supporters”?…or should I really ask, “how would they know”, their agenda is a nothing burger but blaming all gloom and doom on folks that disagree with them….LOL

    “…Boeing soon will decide whether to consolidate its two 787 Dreamliner assembly lines in Washington and South Carolina at a single site. If it does, the 30,000-employee widebody jet plant in Everett is expected to be the loser. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Maybe its for the best they shut the “limited low production” Everett Boeing plant down and separate Seattle from South Carolina Foreign Object Debris [FOD] dropped in plastic 787s. At least Seattle won’t get blamed too.

    “…Coronavirus lockdowns have led to a spike of interest in RV travel. But this couple was ahead of the curve. Five years ago, they quit their jobs and sold their house to live in a specially outfitted environmentally friendly RV so they could explore the country and enjoy the outdoors. Read more….”

    SWE’s take: Hey Erik…your early retirement dream and exodus from the Seattle Swamp come true…LOL…Dave too…BTW, I threw my Seahawk clothes away, like almost everyone else in Seattle after the flag burning type kneeling at NFL games….and they want me to spend $10/beer there too? LOL

    “…Good news: The percentage of COVID-19 tests done in King County that are coming back positive has declined. But there are big exceptions. See what’s happening in your area as FYI Guy outlines where positive tests are surging, and where they’re falling. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: What are the exceptions? Mostly just Colds without fevers that can easily be mis-labeled Killer Flu? A nothing burger.

    “…What you should know about COVID-19 in children: As scientists puzzle over why kids react differently to the virus than adults, here’s the research, the most common symptoms and detailed preventive measures you can take. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Hey you pig headed paranoid scientist(???)…I always had more viruses when my kids were in school and I caught viruses at “packed work” desk offices more easily too…so what, its SOP (Standard Operating Procedure)…live with it.

    “…A mother traveling with her six children was forced off a JetBlue flight when her 2-year-old wouldn’t keep a mask on. The “nasty” scene, with passengers yelling at a flight attendant, is just one example of how kids are posing big dilemmas for airlines. Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: More useless “Mask debating”…LOL

    Good News: Erik can share how he’s grabbing up Louisiana foreclosures at Kansas City and Florida low prices…I won’t tell anyone down there you two came from looneyland Seattle, I’ll protect you from embarrassments.

  6. 3006
    Juststoppedby says:

    By David B. @ 2910:

    By Juststoppedby @ 2751:

    Looks like it’s almost time to call this site done…

    At long last, SWE has overwhelmed it with his relentless blather and the assistance of folks like David and Teddy Ruxspin.

    It’s been five or six days since anybody other than those three has posted here, so this seems like a fair conclusion.

    Enjoy.

    I was just saying to myself: “Self, you haven’t checked the Seattle Bubble comments recently. I bet it’s mostly SWE rants by now.” I feel a little silly posting this: it’s as profound an insight as the Sahara probably having another dry day tomorrow.

    Looks at it this way: it keeps him off the streets and out of trouble.

    Haven’t stopped by in a few days, but just saw your post.

    The irony is if SWE thinks that it’s the millennial’s who are self-absorbed.

    Pot, meet kettle…

  7. 3007

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 2919
    Hey How’s Your Killer Flu Hoax to Blame on Trump Going? LOL…you chicken little Killer Flu mongers wearing snot mask “free speech” muzzles are a complete joke now:

    https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/5100/420-100-FluUpdate.pdf

    Latest facts are Department of Health Washington State written/documented risks are not your progressive WILD ALLEGATION Fake News, now that Killer Flu risk is rated LOW in Wash St and deaths down to almost zero. Political horse manure in my book, your Biden candidate’s only hope to defame Trump by denying DOH actuals to date…time for public schools to open Face to Face in Seattle.

    You don’t blather on and on…you simply lie. I use actuals and you call it blather….I suppose you think the Constitution is just blather too?

    Time to gulp an IHOP mug of takeout coffee down with your newly advertised “Fruity Tooty” $6.99 takeout breakfast that comes with fruit/cream pancakes, eggs, bacon. sausage and hash browns…grab it up and read the brief:

    “…Mapping a pandemic: Track the spread of coronavirus across Washington and the world…”

    SWE’s take: See the Wash St DOH stats on Killer Flu “die-out” above. Ignore this Fake News to falsely blame ghost flu on Trump anyway? LOL…what a bunch of maroons, as Bugs Bunny puts it…

    Good News: Seattle Times states, “• Tips for creating a good learning environment at home as another online school year looms..”; hey why buy school clothes and supplies this year for cancellation of public face to face public school openings. Its all gonna be progressive Democrat “online” anyway? Just get ’em an extra pair of “retirement” liberal bent home pajamas like retired SWE wears at home…LOL…watch Looneytoons and play/surf with computers all day….I’m still a Moderate and I’ll read political history books by Tom Clancy. Did you know reading books prevents and cures Alzheimers too..another reason to shut that iPhone surfing/playing down…read. Reading books cures insomnia too.

  8. 3008
    N says:

    A bullish perspective:

    Are existing home sales showing a housing bubble?
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/are-existing-home-sales-showing-a-housing-bubble/

  9. 3009
  10. 3010
    ruxpert says:

    America’s Most And Least Affordable Places To Buy A Home ?
    https://priceonomics.com/most-and-least-affordable-places-to-buy-a-home/

  11. 3011
    Eastsider says:

    RE: N @ 2921

    A bearish perspective –

    “There was also a movement of loans to later stages of delinquency, with the 60-day delinquency rate reaching a new survey-high*, and the 90-plus-day delinquency rate climbing to its highest level since the third quarter of 2010,” Walsh said.

    *Note the survey began in 1979

    Pent-up supply coming next year?

    Serious mortgage delinquencies soared to a 10-year high last month
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/21/serious-mortgage-delinquencies-soared-10-year-high-last-month/

  12. 3012
    Eastsider says:

    More data from Black Knight –

    Total US loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) doubled between July 2019 and July 2020. In the same period, total US foreclosure starts plunged by 75% near record lows due to widespread moratoriums.

    WA loan delinquency (non-current) rate was 1.67% in Jan 2020. It increased by 260% to 4.36% in July 2020.

    BLACK KNIGHT’S FIRST LOOK AT JULY 2020 MORTGAGE DATA
    https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-july-2020-mortgage-data/

  13. 3013
    Brianna says:

    “Now is a great time to buy because of incredible mortgage rates, but a terrible time to buy because of inventory,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist and senior vice president of analytics at financial-technology company Haus.

    As McLaughlin put it, buyers are going to face a tough choice right now: Do you lock in a low rate and settle for whatever’s on the market, or do you wait for your dream home and risk a higher interest rate.

    “If you plan on finding your dream home, it’s probably better to wait,” McLaughlin said. “But if you plan on trading up in a few years now isn’t a terrible time, other than low inventory, of course.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/realestate/e2-80-98the-housing-market-is-on-a-sugar-high-e2-80-99-home-sales-are-soaring-but-is-it-a-good-time-to-buy-here-e2-80-99s-what-the-experts-say/ar-BB18ewML

  14. 3014
    Eastsider says:

    By Brianna @ 2926:

    “If you plan on finding your dream home, it’s probably better to wait,” McLaughlin said. “But if you plan on trading up in a few years now isn’t a terrible time, other than low inventory, of course.”

    Trade up is not going to happen if 1) prices drop or 2) rates move higher.

    Two things supporting prices currently – 1) low rates, 2) supply suppression via moratoriums. Short sales and foreclosures will spike when the moratoriums are lifted. It will likely be worse than the last recession.

  15. 3015
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Brianna @ 2926

    Ehhhh. I get that now is an okay time to buy (probably better than it was) due to interest rates, but those probably aren’t going anywhere for awhile. I’m hoping for a jump in inventory. Whether or not it happens is anyone’s guess.

    North Kirkland looks like it’s shifting a little bit. Whereas a few months ago _everything_ was getting bid up, we are now in a curious place where some listings are still going for over asking, some are selling at asking, and an increasing number are going BELOW asking.

  16. 3016
    Brianna says:

    RE: Ohd1122 @ 2928

    This is not scientific, but a few listings in my search parameters that I was watching, that went pending in July on their offer review dates have now sold and closed. I was shocked to see they went for their exact list price. I did not expect that.

    I have seen a few bid up too, but not by much…

  17. 3017
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 2923 – Intuitively, the “most affordable” markets are those where the people living there know better than to invest a lot of their money there. The list seems to bear that out. Good to know we are not one.

  18. 3018
    David says:

    By Erik @ 2916:

    RE: David @ 2906
    I have a lot of Seahawks clothes and a Seahawks hat I wear a lot in my profile picture. I also have a Seahawks logo on my debit/credit cards. I’ll have to let those go.

    I’m not saying it will happen to you – BUT Seattle has a terrible brand outside of Seattle. I tell people who ‘think’ they want to visit Seattle to go visit the Chittendon Locks. Then drive like hell as fast as they can anywhere else in WA. Same for Portland.

    Most people seem to think the town is full of reprobates and clueless commies dressed in gray and black.

  19. 3019
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Brianna @ 2929

    It could just be the end of the ‘peak’ season, but with COVID this year who really knows what peak season is?

  20. 3020
    Mackenzie says:

    Does anyone have any insight as to why some rental properties stay vacant for long periods of time? I notice that some Eastside rentals have been available for close to 200 days on Zillow. Why would a landlord be willing to keep a property vacant for so long rather than lowering the rental rate till a renter can be found?

    Could it be that renting at a lower rate would somehow trigger issues with loans they have (i.e. that promised certain rental incomes)?

  21. 3021
    Blurtman says:

    RE: David @ 2931 – Just wait till the Floyd cops, including the one black cop whch the media conveniently never reports on as it defeats the racist cop narrative, are found not guilty.

  22. 3022
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 2933 – Very, very unlikely that loans on single family properties would be covenanted to rental targets.

    More likely a cultural thing. Some people invest in real estate primarily as a store of wealth or for appreciation. They don’t want the negatives of having tenants unless the reward meets a given hurdle. If, given the holding costs, this seems weird; remember that some people put their money into art and gold.

  23. 3023
    Mackenzie says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 2935:

    RE:Some people invest in real estate primarily as a store of wealth or for appreciation. They don’t want the negatives of having tenants unless the reward meets a given hurdle. If, given the holding costs, this seems weird; remember that some people put their money into art and gold.

    Interesting… I guess that real estate investing is similar to buying a negative interest bond. Many investors are happy to pay a negative interest rate as a means of capital preservation. If a lot of investors feel that way about real-estate this could definitely contribute to rising housing costs since many homes are pulled out of supply to serve as investment vehicles.

  24. 3024
    IssaquahResident says:

    Who is compensating landlords during the pandemic when renters are not paying and they are not “evictable” due to the eviction moratorium?

  25. 3025
    Mackenzie says:

    By IssaquahResident @ 2937:

    Who is compensating landlords during the pandemic when renters are not paying and they are not “evictable” due to the eviction moratorium?

    As Whatsmyname points out, many landlords don’t really need tenants anyway, since they primarily own real estate for the appreciation and capital preservation. So long as real estate prices don’t crash we’re good. And since the central banks are pumping the markets with liquidity price declines can’t happen. Therefore all is well.

  26. 3026
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 2938 – That’s not quite what I’m saying. Most landlords by far are looking to, and depending on rents. Some few are not.

  27. 3027
    IssaquahResident says:

    A lot of landlords actually have mortgage obligations. So, I’m curious about their compensation during pandemic, when rent is not paid.

  28. 3028
    don says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 2940
    If the landlord is bound to a federally insured mortgage, [likely most of them] they can engage in forbearance and push the payments to the end of the schedule. That is not compensation, it is an attempt to match cash flow with obligations.
    In the absence of forbearance or no mortgage at all, landlords get nothing until they are able to evict and go after the arrears, in which case they may prevail.
    There are no “government” programs that compensate landlords for busted rent.

  29. 3029
    David White says:

    By Blurtman @ 2934:

    RE: David @ 2931 – Just wait till the Floyd cops, including the one black cop whch the media conveniently never reports on as it defeats the racist cop narrative, are found not guilty.

    That will be epic. Hopefully, once the jury realizes Floyd had enough drugs in his system to kill anyone – they’ll acquit. (But he was getting his life together after holding a gun to a pregnant woman’s belly.)

    I also love how in WI – Quantisha calls the cops on a domestic violence abuse incident then the neighborhood burns down the hood when the perp is shot going for a weapon.

    It ain’t Quantisha’s fault.

  30. 3030
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 2938 – What Whatsmyname is really saying is that people in some countries, such as China, worry that their government may seize their wealth, so they invest in areas outside of their country.

    They’re basically willing to park their funds in an empty house and pay carrying costs such as taxes and maintenance because that is still a safer place for their $CASH$ than having it invested within their own country.

  31. 3031

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