The pandemic has sparked a massive seller’s market and big price spikes around Seattle

Okay, let’s get back to the data. It’s about time. Okay, it’s way past time. Anyway, whatever. Here’s some data. Since it’s been a while, let’s start with a few high-level stats from around the Puget Sound.

First up: Median prices of single-family homes as of July. In a word: Up.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes (July 2020)

It’s a bit difficult to really appreciate just how much home prices are rising right now when looking at the raw dollar values, so here’s the year-over-year change for each of our eight counties:

Year-Over-Year Change: Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes (July 2020)

Home prices are increasing double digits in every Puget Sound county except Island and King, where they are still up 7-8% from a year ago. If homebuyers were hoping or expecting that the pandemic would lead to some good home deals, they’re no doubt very disappointed so far.

So why are prices rising so much? Well, this may have something to do with it:

Months of Supply Single Family Homes (July 2020)

Remember, “months of supply” is the ratio between closed sales and the number of homes on the market at the end of the month. We’re not quite at all-time lows, but every single county did see its lowest July on record for the measure. In other words, there are still plenty of homebuyers out there willing to buy, even in the midst of a global pandemic, and even when home prices are rising so quickly.

Crazy-low mortgage interest rates are probably at least partly to blame, but even that only goes so far to explaining the insanity of the current market. We’ll continue exploring this topic in the weeks and months to come, for sure.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

83 comments:

  1. 1

    Welcome Back Tim, We Missed You, But Were Patient

    The COMCAST internet, TV and phones Shut Down Today…..All of King County too???

    It just popped back, my phone too….adjustments to COMCAST to get more data surge through the ‘limited ” fiber optex cable to get more streaming into homes if schools remain online only? Lord only knows, its my best guess why? Why did it shut down today, the first day of the RNC convention? Lord only knows….but if that’s the reason….YIKES!

    Did COMCAST internet shut down on the rest of the bubbleheads too?

    Its too late for coffee, ya can swig some Black Label instead after losing you phone/internet/TV, read the brief:

    “… Washington’s remote school year is beginning, but some families still can’t connect
    Veronica Gonzalez tries to help Alfonso Duran, of Washington Broadband, find a good place to run an internet cable through her home in Yakima County. Many schools have solved a big barrier to remote learning by hustling up thousands of laptops and tablets. But access to fast, reliable internet? That’s a much more challenging problem, especially in rural areas. (Photo: Amanda Ray / Yakima Herald-Republic)..”

    SWE’s Take: COMCAST now offers internet to poor families [probably cheaper too]….let’s hope it doesn’t shut it all down in the processes….there’s iPhones attached to COMCAST too…system shutdowns make the RE business using them rocky if that’s the case….

    “… Starting school online can be smoother with a dedicated at-home schoolwork space, a desktop computer instead of a laptop, and a few other tricks, parents and experts say. Try their advice for a good home learning environment…”

    SWE’s take: Face to Face schools in Seattle area an extinct dinosaur now? The Christian Private Schools still offer Face to Face schools….but it costs $CASH$ and its not chump change either. Better get them enrolled now, the open face to face private Seattle area school slots are all filling up, like hotcakes.

    Good News: The rest of the Seattle Times briefnews is all old stuff…I won’t repeat it.

  2. 2
    Phillyphillyphilly says:

    Do you think the house marketing will drop or crash once the government is no longer able to support the cash flow of the unemployed? Foreclosures of 2008?

  3. 3
    Jeff says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    Apparently, the Comcast outage didn’t prevent you from enjoying being the first to comment on this post without actually commenting on subject of the post.

    I’m honored to be the 2nd and I don’t have much to say yet about this post except to acknowledge that we were able to sell our house on Skagit county during the middle of the lockdown for a similar y/y gain in price as stipulated here in Tim’s data.

  4. 4

    Cooked Book Data Affecting Seattle RE Price Trending; Like Qualifying for Down Payments on 3% 30 Yr Low Interest Mortgage Loans or MASS Young Milenials and Gen-Zs, Untracked, Moving Out of Seattle Reminds Me of Simon and Garfield’s “Boxer” Song…Lie, la Lie, lie la la lie, lie la lie…..

    The Boxer by Simon & Garfunkel

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYPJOCxSUFc

    The data is cooked and politically motivated. Time to fill your Yuban Mugs, Sing the “Boxer” to the kids at home and read the brief:

    “…Home prices rose faster in Seattle than in all but one of the nation’s biggest metro areas in June, according to new data out today. Costs have been rising especially quickly for the region’s most affordable homes, and low mortgage rates are drawing a new kind of buyer…”

    SWE’s take: Three Takes Require Better Data Here:

    1. Listings are VERY LOW and selection sucks, as Ardelle puts it…perhaps We Need to Decouple Sales of “We Buy Ugly Houses” at list prices and as listings? Its anomalous data in the cooked book data pan? Whatsmyname asked me why SWE doesn’t shop foreclosures and auctioned homes as a potential flipper in Seattle area anymore? The reason is simple, the price is WAY too high for junky foreclosures here, what bargains? Sales at my 140 unit SE King County HOA basically halted this Summer when it took $300K to buy a modular on a postage stamp sized lot with no trees…three more for sale signs went up this month, none sold since, only one sold an all $CASH$ deal last May….$270K $CASH$ all in a buyer’s bag…

    2. A new type of buyer? All $CASH$ bag now?

    3. Where’s Waldo? Last month’s July data? That’s been filtered out of the cooked data?

    “…Seattle police broke up a crowd of protesters on Capitol Hill last night after some threw fireworks at the East Precinct and started a fire outside the building. This followed a Seattle protest of the police shooting of a Black man in Kenosha, Wisc. It was a tumultuous night in Kenosha, too, as officers fired tear gas at protesters angry over the shooting of Jacob Blake, who had been leaning into the SUV where his three children were sitting…”

    SWE’s take: Seattle home prices not affected as Capital Hill becomes a more accommodating and peaceful place to live? LOL

    Good News: They just use fireworks now, real bazookas later?…LOL

  5. 5

    RE: Jeff @ 2
    So Real Estate Sales and iPhone Usage Outages Are Not on topic Jeff, then what is? I’m Sure Ardelle can’t work COVID-19 rules with no Face to Face sales without an iPhone, ask her…

    Ya can’t sell your house? Tim’s data show Whatcom July 20, 2020 medium data home price up to about $440K, but your’s is more a “We Buy Ugly Houses” quality and no one wants it at list?

    And so what if I commented first…that’s unrelated to RE sales predictions…having a bad morning?

  6. 6
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 4

    I could be wrong, as I have only had one mug this morning, but I think Jeff states in his post that he WAS in fact able to sell his house for a Y/Y gain in line with the graph for SKAGIT county.

  7. 7
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    Thank you for the new post Tim. Hope you and yours are well.

  8. 8

    I’m going to add # of units sold, because “inventory” just means not sold. So inventory can be up but be shown as down on any given day if things are still selling off quickly, which they are for the most part.

    King County Units Sold July 2019 = 2,475
    ” ” ” ” July 2020 = 2,613

    Snohomish County Units Sold July 2019 = 1,178
    ” ” ” ” July 2020 = 1,266

    So both up as to units sold. Note I use 3+ bedrooms rather than separate SFH from Condo since there are many overlapping incongruities in the way these areas label things as condo vs townhome vs single family. Seattle often doesn’t call a townhome a condo and The Eastside does. Snohomish County often calls SFH on small lots “condo” and King County doesn’t. So to keep it apples to apples, I use 3+ bedrooms.

    What this tells us is that even though inventory was lower, there weren’t fewer properties for people to buy…since more sold.

    To be clear, I am very bearish and believe we will have a decline when the sht is allowed to hit the fan. Though to what degree depends on which Party wins the election.

  9. 9
    Whatsmyname says:

    By softwarengineer @ 3:

    Whatsmyname asked me why SWE doesn’t shop foreclosures and auctioned homes as a potential flipper in Seattle area anymore? The reason is simple, the price is WAY too high for junky foreclosures here, what bargains?

    Not exactly. WMN responded to your claim that you are “always in the market” to buy and flip Seattle houses at 50% off. WMN asked WHEN is the last time you did this, as WMN does not think you’ve done this in the 13 years he’s been reading this blog. WMN did not think this was a realistic statement for SWE.

    Tim, thanks for the update. Hope there will be more soon. It’s a very interesting world just now.

  10. 10
  11. 11
    Matt P says:

    With Micrsoft, Costco, TMobile, and Amazon, we have the most covid proof economy of any city. Google is also up to 6k employees in Kirkland. I was shocked when I read that yesterday.

    I wonder if West Seattle prices are dragging down the rest of King county? Anecdotally, house prices aren’t up that much here because of the bridge.

  12. 12
    IssaquahResident says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 7 – Ardell, would you please summarize why you feel bearish at the moment, despite the fact that economy rebounds?
    I could be naive, but why do you think home prices will depend on the election?

  13. 13
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Matt P @ 10

    To be fair, you skipped all the bad news in that article. :) from memory…first quarterly YOY loss EVER, slowing hiring and slashing marketing budget…

    Can’t do the link on my phone right now. But I think I saw it on GeekWire.

  14. 14
    Ohd1122 says:

    RE: Matt P @ 10

    We also have Alaska Airlines, Expedia, and Boeing.

    Amazon is expanding corporate offices elsewhere (DC, Austin, Arizona, San Diego). If this COVID crisis keeps up, Amazon and Microsoft won’t have any customers to migrate to the cloud. Costco earnings were mixed, but admittedly we will need to wait to see how Q2 does in September. T mobile just bought a carcass of a company in Sprint and gets to figure that out.

    I generally agree with you , esp. long term, but I think there are a few worrying signs as well.

  15. 15
  16. 16
    redmondjp says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 11 – Boeing is very likely to shut down all of it’s WA-based manufacturing over the next 10 years. Do you have any idea how much of an effect that will have on our regional economy? It is staggering when you consider all of the trickle-down effects and supplier jobs lost.

    And with most tech companies allowing 100% work from home, why locate here at all? Grant County has some of the fastest internet connections in the state. You can just as easily drive up to the Cascades for a weekend hike from the other side.

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 10
    I have a condo I was renting out just on the West Seattle side of the West Seattle bridge. The renters took off on me when the bridge shut down, and I’ve been dropping my rental price ever since trying to get it rented. It’s still not rented and usually rents the first week. 😢 I’m losing money on that darn West Seattle bridge.

  18. 18
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 15
    You don’t know much about Boeing, do you? Boeing is investing billions in automation in Everett to develop carbon fiber airplanes. A new airplane program outside Puget Sound would probably sink the company.

    Boeing may need less blue collar jobs in the future, but if they are planning on leaving, their business plan is not indicating that.

  19. 19
    Matt P says:

    I’m not saying Seattle is doing great, it’s just doing better than other cities.

    While there is the whole permanent work from home push, most people are still staying put either because they like Seattle or they’re not really being allowed to work from home permanently.

  20. 20
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Matt P @ 18 – Yeah, in the big scheme of things covid hasn’t been around here very long (approx 5 months) and is a very fluid situation. It would be a rash move to pull up stakes and relocate when one’s employer could decide that starting next year sometime you can only work remotely a couple days per week, and must come to the office the other days.

    It’s looking more and more like there’s going to be widely distributed vaccines next year. In a relatively short time covid could be a non-issue for most people.

    Most (maybe all) of the stories I’ve read about people leaving urban areas are based on viewing properties via internet searches, not actual moves.

  21. 21
    N says:

    RE: Matt P @ 18

    True, most people are staying put, but we have all heard of coworkers moving far out or leaving the metro all together. Then there is this Redfin report that says homeowners leaving has increased 1,500% (small base of course). It does seem people are taking this opportunity to move on but only time will tell if it has an impact.

    The latest zumper rental report confirmed the trend of people moving to lower cost cities with Seattle and SF down double digits % wise and second tier cities up big.

    https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/slideshow/people-selling-homes-moving-out-seattle-covid-205678.php

  22. 22
    redmondjp says:

    By Erik @ 17:

    RE: redmondjp @ 15
    You don’t know much about Boeing, do you? Boeing is investing billions in automation in Everett to develop carbon fiber airplanes. A new airplane program outside Puget Sound would probably sink the company.

    Boeing may need less blue collar jobs in the future, but if they are planning on leaving, their business plan is not indicating that.

    Heh heh, oh Erik sometimes you just kill me with what you THINK you know!

    I interviewed with the company owner of the company that makes the carbon fiber winding machines for Boeing. I have friends who have worked there for 20 years. So I might know about bit more than you think. They have already had layoffs and more are coming. When you plan to shrink your headcount by 2/3rds, that is significant I would say.

  23. 23
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 22
    Wow, gosh, I’m embarrassed. You interviewed with a tooling vendor for Boeing, I didn’t know you were so well connected. Do share your insider knowledge.

    You have no idea…

  24. 24
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 22
    My wife walked by and asked “what are you laughing about?” It was your ridiculous comment. You really know nothing about me.

  25. 25
    ruxpert says:

    P.Schiff – Aug 24
    Positive news on #COVID19 is not negative news for #gold. Gold is not
    going up due to the disease, but the government’s fiscal and monetary
    cure. The debts run up and money printed will not go away with the
    virus. The cure has done far more irreversible harm than the disease.
    https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1297888860811264000

    Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?
    https://youtu.be/JnX-D4kkPOQ

  26. 26
    David says:

    By Erik @ 18:

    RE: redmondjp @ 15
    You don’t know much about Boeing, do you? Boeing is investing billions in automation in Everett to develop carbon fiber airplanes. A new airplane program outside Puget Sound would probably sink the company.

    Boeing may need less blue collar jobs in the future, but if they are planning on leaving, their business plan is not indicating that.

    Fingers crossed – I haven’t sold any Boeing stock so far.

  27. 27
    David White says:

    I have seen some $10k drops in price around Cal Anderson Park – aka CHOPenis.

  28. 28
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 25

    ?
    US Printed More Money in One Month (June 2020)Than in Two Centuries
    https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-printed-more-money-in-one-month-than-in-two-centuries

  29. 29
    Matt P says:

    Can someone check my math? I’m being quoted 2.375 rate for a refinance with $882 in fees. This would drop my mortgage payment by $400 per month. In order to get this rate, I’d need to pay down my mortgage by $40k. Even if I stay only 1 more year in this house, it’s worth it right? In the first year, I’d gain $3400 from payment savings when taking out the fees and the $500 less per year in principal accumulation due to a lower payment and every year after that $4300. That’s an 8.5% return in the first year alone. Is there something I’m missing here? I’m a bit cash rich at the moment and only getting 1% in the bank on that $40k.

    I guess the only risk would be of the market crashing and I’m left with not being able to recoup that $40k from selling my house, but at that point I’d be making a decision between staying put with a lower payment or doing some jingle mail.

  30. 30
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 29
    If I were you, I’d see if I could cashflow if you turned your home into a rental with it fully managed without refinancing. If you can, I’d consider just renting it out and buying another unit next year if prices go down. If you need to refinance to cash flow, you should do that and then move to a rental until you find a good deal and make that your new home.

    This is just my 2 cents. The effort is definitely worth the financial gain. The more property that you control, the richer you will be. A little hassle now will pay off in your future.

  31. 31
    David White says:

    By ruxpert @ 28:

    RE: ruxpert @ 25

    ?
    US Printed More Money in One Month (June 2020)Than in Two Centuries
    https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-printed-more-money-in-one-month-than-in-two-centuries

    You’ve quoted a crypto-currency website. I’ll give you ten minutes to go buy a loaf of bread with crypto-currency and maybe I’ll take it seriously.

    But I already know you cannot.

  32. 32
    David White says:

    RE: David White @ 31

    “The main catalyst of the sudden 50% decline in the price of Bitcoin within a span of eight hours was the 9.99% drop of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.”

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-traders-explain-what-caused-the-bitcoin-price-plunge-to-3-000

    Put all your money in BTC.

  33. 33

    Great Comments All

    1. Is Hurricane Laura heading for Erik’s New Louisiana apartment? Thanks Erik for your honesty on West Seattle apartment vacancy rise due to closed bridge cracks.

    2. Far away from everything Whatcom homes are selling at $450K each? Are they like “gold plated”?

    3. Ardelle can help…any 50% off list foreclosures for sale that you know about in the Seattle Area?

    Time to grab up some caffeine and read the brief:

    “… Republican convention: A pardon, power, and plenty of Trumps
    “I know many people are anxious and some feel helpless. I want you to know you’re not alone,” first lady Melania Trump said as she capped the second night of the Republican convention with a rare public speech…”

    SWE’s Take: Feel hopeless? Hades not me. Beth Midler is a Racist progressive?….she Tweeted Melania is joke with her “foreign accent” and can’t speak English right….now that was a LOW BLOW…

    “…In Kenosha, Wisconsin, two people were killed and one was injured by gunshots last night during unrest after the shooting of a Black man by police. The family of Jacob Blake, who was shot multiple times by officers on Sunday, says he’s paralyzed and it would “take a miracle” for him to walk again…”

    SWE’s Take: Wisconsin called in 250 National Guard to assist police too during this months long chronic violence worsening recently too…what’s wrong with Seattle and Portland, why don’t they ask for National Guard help too? Why is it partisan to admit ya need help? If ya don’t ya need to be impeached or fired?

    Good News: I’m seeing far less Milenial and Gen-Z folks in Kent lately..have ya noticed it too from your periscope? A lion’s share of them already all left the State? The Tooth fairy knows…its good news because their rent and mortgage went WAY down for them assuming they did, in huge un-tracked groves to?

  34. 34
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 26
    Dave Calhoun said he expects 3 years before the commercial side picks up demand. I’d stay in until then, but if another plane drops out of the sky, all bets are off.

  35. 35
    ruxpert says:

    RE: David White @ 31

    dear David,
    re: your distraction: I don’t buy crypto

    Now, please comment on the statement posted:

    US Printed More Money in One Month (June 2020)Than in Two Centuries
    https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/two-centuries-of-debt-in-one-month-pantera-blockchain-letter-july-2020-f876b43448a2
    https://waikanaewatch.org/2020/08/03/u-s-quantitative-easing-more-money-issued-from-government-deficit-in-one-month-than-in-two-centuries/
    Thanks & have a wonderful day

  36. 36
    ruxpert says:

    ?
    The Real Estate Guys Radio Show

    Will The Economy Recover After COVID-19? – EP2 with Peak Prosperity
    https://youtu.be/hmPLrtSWsZo

    The Global Economy During COVID-19 with Richard Duncan – EP5
    https://youtu.be/3Lv9uk14KDQ

  37. 37
    ruxpert says:

    Seattle-area home prices rise faster than nearly every other U.S. city,
    driven in part by younger homebuyers
    Aug. 25, 2020
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-prices-continue-steady-rise-driven-in-part-by-younger-homebuyers/

  38. 38
    David White says:

    By ruxpert @ 35:

    RE: David White @ 31

    dear David,
    re: your distraction: I don’t buy crypto

    Now, please comment on the statement posted:

    US Printed More Money in One Month (June 2020)Than in Two Centuries
    https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/two-centuries-of-debt-in-one-month-pantera-blockchain-letter-july-2020-f876b43448a2
    https://waikanaewatch.org/2020/08/03/u-s-quantitative-easing-more-money-issued-from-government-deficit-in-one-month-than-in-two-centuries/
    Thanks & have a wonderful day

    I’ve already repeatedly stated that Real Estate is a hedge against inflation. Obviously when (the very best savings rate) banks pay less than 1% interest on money, money has little value other than in buying assets.

    Even Warren Buffett has recently invested in a gold miner – as opposed to actual gold – or BTC.

  39. 39
    redmondjp says:

    By Erik @ 24:

    RE: redmondjp @ 22
    My wife walked by and asked “what are you laughing about?” It was your ridiculous comment. You really know nothing about me.

    Laughing right back at you, Erik; I never said that I did. But it’s not funny for the hundreds of engineers who are being laid off (or will be within the next year). Losing 2/3rd of the engineering staff is not insignificant in my book. Do you find that funny somehow?

  40. 40
    ruxpert says:

    Weak economy enables strong housing market – Ep 605
    https://youtu.be/xfqZ1C3RX3k

    Fed seen holding rates at zero for five-years plus in new policy
    By Rich Miller -Aug 26, 2020
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-26/fed-seen-holding-rates-at-zero-for-five-years-plus-in-new-policy

  41. 41
  42. 42
    ohd1122 says:

    Ford makes 30,000 employees clean out their offices in Michigan to prepare for new office environment: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-gears-up-for-the-post-pandemic-office-11598445075?mod=hp_lista_pos1

    Not Seattle but an example of not tech rethinking an office environment in the COVID19 era.

  43. 43
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 8:

    I’m going to add # of units sold, because “inventory” just means not sold. So inventory can be up but be shown as down on any given day if things are still selling off quickly, which they are for the most part.

    King County Units Sold July 2019 = 2,475
    ” ” ” ” July 2020 = 2,613

    Snohomish County Units Sold July 2019 = 1,178
    ” ” ” ” July 2020 = 1,266

    So both up as to units sold.

    YoY comparison is meaningless this year due to Covid-19. I bet YTD sales is down this year compared to 2019.

  44. 44
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 17:

    I have a condo I was renting out just on the West Seattle side of the West Seattle bridge. The renters took off on me when the bridge shut down, and I’ve been dropping my rental price ever since trying to get it rented. It’s still not rented and usually rents the first week. 😢 I’m losing money on that darn West Seattle bridge.

    Seems like inventory in Capitol Hill and West Seattle will be increasing into fall/winter. LOL.

  45. 45

    RE: Eastsider @ 42

    I did July because Tim’s were July and I was doing an add on. Are you saying his are “meaningless” too? He shouldn’t have bothered to write the post?

    Anyway, here’s YTD for you for the same parameters as my comment #8, 3+ bedrooms Residential. I don’t know the answer yet as I am running the answer as I type.

    King County Units Sold
    1/1/19 to 7/31/19 = 13,943
    1/1/20 to 7/31/20 = 12,243

    Snohomish County 2019 Jan thru July = 6,679
    2020 = 6,307

    Forgot the disclaimer on comment #8. It’s been awhile since I’ve posted stats here. Required Disclosure for this comment AND comment #8 – Stats in the comments by ARDELL are not compiled by, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. They are hand calculated by me in RealTime while typing the comment.

    For YTD I likely would have done all property, condos and SFH combined, but I was trying to keep it as close to Tim’s original numbers in comment #8. I don’t count 2 bedroom as SFH since often they are a teardown a townhome or a “condo alternative” house. So this is as close as I can get to the way he does it. Not sure if he counts the SFH townhomes that are attached in his SFH. I don’t like counting some townhouses and not others, so I use 3+ bedrooms instead.

  46. 46
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 38
    I’ve had multiple engineering and leadership roles at Boeing and am well connected there. I find it funny you are schooling me about my own backyard.

    You tout that you interviewed with a Boeing vendor and know a 20 year Boeing employee. You sounds ridiculous and are embarrassing yourself.

  47. 47
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 43
    Probably. It seems like a good time to buy West Seattle real estate. West Seattle is still my favorite place in Seattle and I’d buy more if I found a good deal there.

  48. 48
    ron says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1 – If only I could shut down your internet forever… LOL :) (also enable parental controls on your TV to block Fox news)

  49. 49
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 38
    Here is my opinion and what I think from putting some events together…. I’m not an executive or anything, just a longtime employee that has been in many areas of the company.

    I believe Boeing likely planned a new middle of the market airplane in Washington to fill in when they moved the remainder of 787 to Charleston. Unfortunately, that plan didn’t work out because of Covid and the 737 tragedy, so they were forced to lay people off. Boeing helps their skilled employees by assisting them in relocating to different areas of the company because work in commercial became scarce. Right now Boeing is beefing up defense and space to create jobs for engineers and managers they want to keep. Many of those highly skilled engineers and managers will probably come back to commercial in Everett when the new airplane starts back up.

    The point is, I believe Boeing wants to continue developing airplane programs in Washington state. I don’t think they have this plan of leaving Washington all together, but sometimes these plans are only known at the board level, so I don’t really know anything for sure. I believe Boeing is a great company doing great things with great intentions and they got caught up in some unfortunate circumstances and are forced to layoff some really talented people.

    Plus I think I know the guy you are talking about that said that, and it’s totally something he’d say. Don’t believe everything you hear.

  50. 50
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 44 – So King County sales dropped about 12% YTD and Snohomish County about 6% despite a near 3/4 pt drop in 30yr fixed mortgage interest rate. Recent sales include pent up sales from April through June. Sales dropped as much as 40% during that period. That’s why it is meaningless to compare YoY sales this year. YTD sales is far more relevant.

  51. 51
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 46 – If you sell your West Seattle condo now, you can probably buy it back at lower prices later (assuming you can lower transaction costs.) Increasing inventory is bad for prices.

  52. 52
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 51
    This is one of my longterm holds. I love the area and I love the unit. It would be foolish to sell now in my opinion. I need more property, not less.

    When prices drop, i’d really like to pickup another unit in that area.

  53. 53
    Jeff says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5

    I think you misread my post. I said we WERE able to sell our house In Skagit County after owning it for almost exactly one year for roughly 12% over our purchase price. I’m not recommending folks try to profit on a one year deal like that and that wasn’t our intension, but it was nice to cover the transaction costs and such, and we love the rental we’re in at the moment way better than the place we owned. Not sure when or if better deals/properties will be coming available again. Maybe during Erik’s fabled crash of 2024 perhaps?

  54. 54
    Erik says:

    RE: David White @ 38
    Real estate people get rich. Stock investors save until they are 65 and then retire and go on a budget. That’s not always the case, but generally speaking, that’s true.

    If you can control $10M of real estate in Puget Sound, and you play your cards right, you’ll be living off the cash flow in no time.

  55. 55
    Erik says:

    RE: Jeff @ 53
    It’s an educated guess and this does feel a little mysteriously like 2003 when everyone expected the market to crash. Bush kept us going with cheap money and loose lending standards until the whole thing collapsed in our face. It took about 4 years. 2003 + 4 = 2007. It is 2020 and we are again being artificially propped up on printed money. 2020 + 4 = 2024. That mysteriously coincides closely with the 18 year cycle. 2006 + 18 = 2024.

    My real estate bubble beacon is saying around 2022, we should start watching this pretty closely, Something is coming around the 2024 time frame plus or minus a couple years is my guess.

  56. 56
    mountainfamily says:

    RE: Matt P @ 18 – Yeah, in the big scheme of things covid hasn’t been around here very long (approx 5 months) and is a very fluid situation. It would be a rash move to pull up stakes and relocate when one’s employer could decide that starting next year sometime you can only work remotely a couple days per week, and must come to the office the other days.

    agreed!
    Amazon family here…our neighbor (also Amazon) arranged to be in the office only a few days a month and unloaded their place, moving to a much smaller community with the recreation opportunities they longed for. We also started browsing real estate outside the city when the work from home timelines got extended, fantasizing momentarily about dropping everything and moving. We even got a realtor in the community we were eying. But, it’s not that simple. Even being stuck commuting in one day a week could be a real drag if you lived too far out of the city. Smaller towns are appealing, but they lack the jobs. It’s risky to move somewhere where you’d have no other options if your position ended in a few years, or you wanted to do something different. Amazon is giving NO clear promises about being able to stay remote indefinitely, and transitioning to a permanently remote workforce is not an overnight process for a company with many teams that are so collaborative.. So, we decided to cool it and finish remodeling our place, bide our time, and enjoy it here for at least a few more years. Maybe there are people leaving in droves, but for many more the decision is not quite so instant, and there are still people with lots of money wanting to get out of their condos and into a home with a yard.

  57. 57
    ruxpert says:

    RE: David White @ 38

    Roger that. Thanks David! ;-)

  58. 58
    ruxpert says:

    Will real estate prices be negatively affected by a depressive economy ?
    Could severe debt from printing money and lack of savings disable the house buyer/buying pool to the point of decreasing demand thus RE prices; or will the fewer accumulating more wealth present enough RE buying to keep RE prices up? ( and who will afford accompanying / accommodating / necessary rental amounts?)
    Will USA fiat ballooning pinata not bust the global confidence in the dollar because so many other nations of the globe are quickly printing as well?
    Can dept be forever outran with no consequence?
    — { is there some factor I’m missing?}
    and: Are gold miners better than RE currently? ;-)
    ===
    Doug Casey and Rick Rule: ‘The Greater Depression’ and fate of the global economy (Pt. 1/2)
    https://youtu.be/dIZEmEBYJ9U

  59. 59
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 50

    You’re welcome. Glad I could oblige.

  60. 60

    RE: Matt P @ 29
    Low Interest Rates and Wealth Accumulated Related With Bank lien on Your Wealth to Qualify for that Loan?

    Would if you have no wealth [like almost all folks] near the size of the loan principle required on a Seattle JUMBO LOAN? The tooth fairy knows?

    There appears so much data missing that’s relevant and I’m no sucker to believe every success story is “one size fits all”..

  61. 61

    RE: Jeff @ 53
    If That’s true Jeff

    You’re a savvy investor after all. Rent and wait. I’d do it too. Good job.

    Don’t be a lemming following the crowd. Erik, I know of no retirees “simultaneously” owning rentals as a retirement base too, do you? At some point the work and stress of being a landlord is too much…even in your 50s…nope, nothing beats a lifelong pension with a book in your lap…did you know that the $3000/mo ya get for Social Security income until ya die is just like a Seattle home at $700K converted to $CASH$ earning like 1% interest? Rent at $3000/mo is possible, but most wouldn’t rent at that rate anyway…then there’s the landlord’s paperwork, tenant destruction maintenance and tenant flight costs…it all factors in too…being a full time landlord 24/7 of your time is not free. Time= $CASH$ and sweat equity is not a preferable “one size fits all” alternative as you age…do the math.

  62. 62
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 51 – Yikes. Selling now with a plan(hope) to just buy later at a lower price? I wouldn’t even do that with the stock market, let alone RE.

    By the way, look at Powell’s speech today…the Fed’s blowing bubbles for years to come.

  63. 63
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 60
    My wife is an accountant and she does all the bills and all that. She likes it.

    I have a CPA for taxes and my property managers do all the work and take care of whatever they need to take care of. My real estate system runs itself hands free. I’m not needed for the system to run. I just say “thank you!” “Outstanding job!” “Sorry this is such a hassle, I feel responsible. “You are doing a great job!” Basically I get people that help me to like me and they do a great job and make my life easy. My job is choosing people to help me that are all stars and they run everything for me.

    I just figure out the direction of the company, which I enjoy anyway. I talk to smart people like ray pepper, ardell, and watch YouTube. I read a lot of business and real estate books and stuff like that and that gives me ideas too. I’m more of a big picture guy these days.

  64. 64
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 62 – My point is the writing is on the wall. Erik has not been able to find a tenant for his West Seattle condo and is losing money. Without the bridge, prices are going nowhere but down. My advise is to unload the condo now to cut losses – lowering rent and declining price. He can use that money to buy another property elsewhere (Louisiana?) or even West Seattle after the correction.

  65. 65
    David White says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 64 – The bridge will be rebuilt. Only your posts will live on forever as monuments to something.

  66. 66
    David White says:

    By Erik @ 54:

    RE: David White @ 38
    Real estate people get rich. Stock investors save until they are 65 and then retire and go on a budget. That’s not always the case, but generally speaking, that’s true.

    If you can control $10M of real estate in Puget Sound, and you play your cards right, you’ll be living off the cash flow in no time.

    Burien has had a significant jump in prices recently. Maybe people are moving from Cap Hill. Though Burien doesn’t have a ‘hook’ to it to me long-term other than relative proximity to Seattle and Tacoma.

    Supposedly they are finishing a connector for direct access to I-5 from Burien.

  67. 67
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 64 – But everybody knows about the bridge, it’s already priced in. If he sold now he’s selling at the “no west seattle bridge” price. He’d just lock in a lower selling price. Whereas if he just holds it long term, as sounds like his plan, he will not have that loss. He may have to lower the rent a bit, but he’ll still be able to rent it out.

    And they’ll figure out the bridge situation.

    I don’t think jumping in and out of properties, trying to time the market, is a sound RE strategy.

  68. 68
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 67 – I disagree that it is already “priced-in”. Rent has not bottomed yet. Price will surely follow. My estimate for a bridge replacement is at least 5 years out, which is a pretty optimistic assumption nowadays. Until then, you are in for a world of hurt as a landlord.

  69. 69
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 67

    It’s not already priced in. RE doesn’t price in like stock. It snowballs as individual sellers compete with each other.

  70. 70
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 64
    You could be right, but it seems like a ton of work to maybe save $10k. I’d rather spend my time buying more rentals and paying the $10k holding cost. I estimate my net worth increases about $80k average every house or condo I buy without any appreciation. I’d rather spend my time playing offense instead of defense.

  71. 71
  72. 72
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 68
    It is priced in. It’s a simple little 1br condo I bought for $200k a few years ago. It appraised for $300k after I bought it and was worth $400k on Zillow before the bridge thing. Now it’s back down in the low $300k’s. I’m not worried.

    This is my lowest cost rental and is a virtually maintenance free rental. My friend offered me $80k profit to quit claim the property to him and I politely declined and helped him find a good deal in North Seattle.

    I have bigger problems in my life than stressing out about my property dropping in value for a few years. Like I was saying on a previous post, I am flush with cash right now and am not worried about weathering a major storm. I planned for this and am feeling zero stress. The only stress I have is figuring how to get time off work to buy more rentals if Seattle when real estate values tank. That’s what keeps me up at night.

  73. 73
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 70 – It’s more than just saving $10k (or more?) There is also opportunity cost.

    You have not weathered a downturn in RE since the Great Recession. Maybe you are truly flushed with cash. We will find out in the next decline.

  74. 74
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 73
    I’m not getting through to you, so I’m going to stop. Keep saving and being scared until you retire. Then go on a budget until you die. That’s all you want to understand so that’s all you’ll hear.

  75. 75
    David says:

    By Erik @ 74:

    RE: Eastsider @ 73
    I’m not getting through to you, so I’m going to stop. Keep saving and being scared until you retire. Then go on a budget until you die. That’s all you want to understand so that’s all you’ll hear.

    You’re currently the most successful real estate investor in here as far as I can tell. Eastsider is not.

  76. 76
    ruxpert says:

    BLM Distractions & Debt Slavery
    We’re ALL DEBT SLAVES – Here’s Why
    https://youtu.be/awiNN67DeOs

  77. 77
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 58

    Doug Casey, Rick Rule:(Pt. 2./2)
    Investing, Credit Collapse, Africa. millennials …
    https://youtu.be/7lbxwQ2B39c

    andy:
    “the FED has made a lot of folks look smart.”

  78. 78
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 76 – Hey Ruxpert, Appreciate your counterflow posts, and I understand the argument about central banks. Money is a curios thing, and the time value of money is drilled into anyone’s head who takes a basic finance course. But with regards to what backs a currency like the US dollar, it is the belief that the currency has value, that is all. And if you do not believe the US dollar has value, please feel free to mail me all of your dollars. And you may as well ask what backs gold? The same thing, the belief that gold has value, that’s all.

    Not everyone on the planet has debt. I have none.

    Regarding assets, the number one asset anyone possesses is their health. Then, family and friends. Then, financial assets. But if you are going to be in ill health and miserable, better if you are wealthy, I suppose.

    Don’t know if anyone is paying attention, but the stock market is doing very well, in nominal terms, back to where it was before the China virus crash. The price of assets are and will continue to be inflated.

  79. 79
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 75
    Thank you. I’m still working for money though, and I’m looking to change that. I have the system setup and now I just need to do more deals.

  80. 80
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 78
    Hi Blurtman,

    Nice post, flows quite well, and I agree with most, and yet not quite sure about this part:
    “But with regards to what backs a currency like the US dollar, it is the belief that the currency has value, that is all.”
    Perhaps we can discuss this further.
    Although I have no debt, and more flush with cash then before after selling a rental, I’m still curious about the concept of us all living under the shadow of Debt Slavery and the Belief in our master’s money system hegemony; and how such might affect RE.

  81. 81

    Guys, simply look at what has happened to us here in Vancouver BC. The same will occur to you: https://www.strawhomes.com/mls/west-vancouver-homes/

    Clocking in at just an average price of $5 million!

  82. 82
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Richard Morrison @ 81
    ???

    audio:
    What’s Really Happening in the Vancouver Real Estate Market?
    July 23, 2020 episode # 233
    https://www.vancouverrealestatepodcast.com/podcast/whats-really-happening-in-the-vancouver-real-estate-market/

    Are you hearing conflicting reports? Perhaps you just heard the CMHC call for 9-18% price drops in the Vancouver market, but then your neighbour Todd’s home sold in multiple offers. And Todd’s place was a dump. And Todd’s got bad taste. And, come to think of it, you don’t actually even like Todd…no one does. And he got over asking during Covid?!? So, what is really happening in the Vancouver real estate market? On today’s show, Adam & Matt offer an extended version of their recent talk at the Vancouver Real Estate Investment Summit. They break it down simply, discussing what we are hearing about the Vancouver real estate market, what we actually know about the Vancouver real estate market, and, knowing what we know, where the opportunities are currently. This is an info-packed episode that gives an up-to-the minute account of the market that goes way beyond the headlines. You may even better understand what happened with Todd’s place by the end but that doesn’t mean you have to feel good about it. Screw that guy!

    One-Third Of Vancouver’s Real Estate Market Is Owned By Chinese Buyers
    https://www.fortunebuilders.com/one-third-of-vancouvers-real-estate-market-is-owned-by-chinese-buyers/

  83. 83
    SeaH says:

    Then , Is timing the market better than time in the market?
    How do you think home price decline compare to the 2008 financial recession?
    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 69

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