Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Up 6.5% from 2019 in July

All righty, let’s catch up a bit on our Case-Shiller data. Fun fact: S&P totally redesigned their site while I was away, making the Case-Shiller data a lot harder to download all together. Anyway, according to June data that was released this week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.2 percent May to June
Up 6.5 percent YOY.
Up 41.5 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were down 1.3 percent.

Seattle is currently ranked #2 in largest year-over-year price growth, only behind Phoenix at 9.0 percent growth.

Case-Shiller Year-Over-Year Home Price Change

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:


Here’s how the month-over-month price changes looked for all twenty markets:

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

There were eight metro areas that hit new all-time highs in April: Los Angeles, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through April.


Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 155 months since the 2007 price peak in Seattle prices are up 41.5 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

We saw a pretty strong price spike in 2018, followed by a bit of a decline, but since then prices seem to be back to a pretty typical seasonal pattern of strong gains in the spring and only a slight reduction in the fall and winter.

Here’s the Seattle Times’ story about this month’s numbers: Seattle-area home prices rise faster than nearly every other U.S. city, driven in part by younger homebuyers

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2020-08-25)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

6 comments:

  1. 1
    ohd1122 says:

    So when is the Seattle bubble going to pop?

  2. 2
    The Tim says:

    RE: ohd1122 @ 1Is there even a Seattle bubble this time around? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  3. 3
    uwp says:

    This was the report that was supposed to show Covid weakness. Not great for the housing bears.

    But I’m sure there will be some reason or another found to dismiss it.

  4. 4
    N says:

    What an interesting time. Huge fiscal response by the Fed and the federal government, eviction moratorium, millions in mortgage forbearance, tens of millions unemployed, LOW interest rates and housing just keeps on going up. Clearly all that matters is low rates (re: 2018) and the feds monetary policy.

  5. 5
    Eastsider says:

    30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States peaked at 18.63% on Oct 9, 1981. It is 2.91% today. If this continues, our financial system may get a “divide by zero” error. It takes far less than 2.91% to reach zero bound IMO.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh

  6. 6

    Prices Way Up…Inventory That’s Decent “Not So Good”

    Hey, drink that “not so good coffee” from 7-11 for 99 cents a mug and read the brief:

    “….But many claims by Trump and others were exaggerated or just plain false, fact-checkers say. Here are seven takeaways. (Photo: Evan Vucci / AP)..”

    SWE’s Take: Biden doesn’t need the same fact checking…his word is always gold MSM?….LOL

    “…It’s Friday! Japan got a flying car off the ground with a person inside. Take a look and lift your spirits with some light news:…”

    SWE’s take: Big Deal Japan….American engineers invented that technology in 1949, seventy years ago….LOL:

    https://www.nydailynews.com/autos/world-flying-car-created-1949-sale-1-million-article-1.1375626

    Good News: This debatable Killer Flu news is dying out fast now that case numbers plummet…DOW back up to where it was before Killer Flu now, now that’s a boost to Seattle Real Estate prices.

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