Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

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Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (93% score) - 2 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

132 comments:

  1. 1
    Eastsider says:

    10yr treasury yield has increased from 0.508% on 8/4 to 0.935% today. A year ago today, the yield was 1.89%, and 2 years ago it was 3.142%!

    If the vaccine works, we will likely see higher mortgage rates. In the past 2 years, 30yr fixed mortgage rates range from 5.16% in Nov 2018 to 3.01% in Oct 2020. (Source: MDN.)

    The last time mortgage rates hit 5%, we witnessed our first YoY decline in home prices.

  2. 2
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1 – Higher mortgage rates don’t happen in a vacuum. They happen because the economy is picking up, there is job growth, wages are rising, inflation is trending upward etc…

    In that environment all the positives for the housing market offset the negative of higher rates.

    But keep on hoping for that big downturn, I admire your perseverance and stamina!

  3. 3
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 2 – Interest rate dropped in 2018 when the economy was great, low unemployment, rising wages, low inflation. Just sayin’

  4. 4
    don says:

    The housing teapot will keep singing until the FED turns the fire down. My guess is it will stay on the current trend in Puget sound area for most of 2021.

  5. 5

    Listings Down, Prices way Up; the Perfect Storm to pay More for a House in Seattle Now

    Enjoy the ride sellers…BTW, one home sold [about 10% of those for sale at my 140 count HOA this year]…that million dollar home they’re building next to my HOA now has windows and roof….

    Ohhh…on a related issue to real estate sales is the cost of replacement healthcare in Seattle area. 800K folks are on Obamacare and about to lose their benefits?…but most all of us get our health insurance through employers anyway and employers pick up about 75% of the premium costs…our private insurance bill is about $600/mo per family, compared to the $20,000/yr MSRP. Medicaid or Obamacare Wash St Apple Insurance used to cover even dental, Lord only knows what it covers now, and a lot doctors won’t accept it either [Medicare for that matter too].

    “…The court [SCOTUS] is reviewing a decision [today folks] that found part of the law, also known as Obamacare, unconstitutional. The case raises questions about the fate of health insurance for millions of Americans. The lawsuit was brought by Republican state officials and is backed by President Trump’s administration, which has prioritized abolishing the law…”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/10/scotus-hearing-aca-live-updates/?wpmk=1&wpisrc=al_news__alert-politics–alert-national&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert&pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJjb29raWVuYW1lIjoid3BfY3J0aWQiLCJpc3MiOiJDYXJ0YSIsImNvb2tpZXZhbHVlIjoiNTk2ZGE4ZmRhZGU0ZTIxNWI3Y2VkMjUzIiwidGFnIjoid3BfbmV3c19hbGVydF9yZXZlcmUiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vcG9saXRpY3MvMjAyMC8xMS8xMC9zY290dXMtaGVhcmluZy1hY2EtbGl2ZS11cGRhdGVzLz93cG1rPTEmd3Bpc3JjPWFsX25ld3NfX2FsZXJ0LXBvbGl0aWNzLS1hbGVydC1uYXRpb25hbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWFsZXJ0JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXdwX25ld3NfYWxlcnRfcmV2ZXJlJmxvY2F0aW9uPWFsZXJ0In0.5RGvQRR7XOdeCynRzQ3n5R5ZAjOWBNNyveOOtXzetrc

    Hades, $20-30K/yr MSRP out of pocket cost for decent ACA coverage ain’t chump change either….it eats into affordability of mortgage and rent dollars folks. I see this further restricting average per capita pay from rent in Seattle. More young adults at home in the Seattle basement IOWs.

    New news from the brief on livability in Seattle Area and long-term price estimates:

    “… 2 wounded deputies recovering after gunfight in Woodinville
    Two King County sheriff’s deputies are recovering from their injuries today after a gunfight with an armed man in Woodinville, who was fatally shot in the exchange, according to a sheriff’s spokesperson. The trouble began with a report of a possible car prowler yesterday at an apartment complex that’s usually considered quiet. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s take: The Honda Civic is the most stolen car out there. Key-less ignition newer cars are vulnerable too, if the thief finds your lost keys first…the car honks where its located…

    “…The 2020 Honda Civic continues the decades long of service to enthusiasts. For this model year, the automaker claims that the Civic offers “style for miles,” but looks might be all that’s going for it. Customers complain about the electrical system, suspension and structure defects…”

    Electrical system and structure defects [sounds like the 737 MAX…LOL]? I heard the new 2020 Civic fuel pumps and air bags suck too…

    Good news: you can still get an American engineered air bag that doesn’t explode in your face…buy older cars…LOL

  6. 6
    The Tim says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – No, you can’t make a post that briefly mentions real estate then just veer totally off-topic to healthcare and… automobile safety? Seriously? 🙄

    This is a site about real estate in the Seattle area. Take your political ramblings elsewhere. Thanks.

  7. 7
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 3 – The Fed has flat out stated that they’re keeping interest rates low for years to come, thus maintaining downward pressure on mortgage rates and upward pressure on asset prices.

    Don’t fight the Fed, it’s a battle you’ll never win.

  8. 8
    chip&dip says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6 – Thank you.

  9. 9
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 7 – The Fed will keep the interest rates low for years to come “because the economy is picking up, there is job growth, wages are rising, inflation is trending upward etc…”

    Hmm… can you make up your mind? You can’t have inflation rising and rates staying low at the same time.

  10. 10
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 9 – No, in your post #1 you were inferring that higher mortgage rates would cause a decline in home prices. In reply to that post I said the underlying factors that would cause mortgage rates to rise would also be bullish for home prices, thus negating the dampening effect of higher rates. Again, I was replying to your scenario, I wasn’t saying I think that scenario (higher rates due to inflation, etc…) will transpire any time soon because I don’t think it will.

    I went on to say the Fed has stated they will keep interest rates low for years to come. This is just a fact. Therefore it is almost a certainty that mortgage rates will remain low as well, since although the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, their policies have great influence on mortgage rates.

  11. 11
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Material downturns in housing prices just don’t happen very often. Even a global pandemic couldn’t do it.

  12. 12
    TJ98370 says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6

    Thank goodness – I just had to comment. For an example of where not to go, check out The Housing Bubble Blog (Ben Jones). The comment section of that blog has turned into a super pro-Trump site proclaiming massive voter fraud. Very little to do with real estate anymore. I got banned from the site for suggesting that the commenters were engaging in political right-wing group-think. I guess Ben is not very open to opposing political opinions. We do not want The Seattle Bubble Blog to go down that path.

  13. 13
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6
    SWE used the Trojan horse technique. SWE’s comment came in appearing to comply with the rules and quickly transitioned into a hidden agenda. Good catch.

    You said below to leave requests in the comment section, so here it is…. on the horizontal x-axis is time in years perhaps. On the vertical y-axis is median housing prices in king county. Grayed out shading the line graph on the horizontal axis from one year to another year is when and what stimulus the fed provided. Stimulus can come in the form of lowering interest rates and loosening lending standards. This would show everyone including myself the very important part relationship between federal stimulus and how the king county market reacts. This comment comes from “The Housing Boom and Bust” by Thomas Sowell, which I’ve been pushing for 8 years on this site.

    For example, you could mark on the horizontal axis when interest rates went down 1% and show graphically how long it took the market to react and how it reacted in terms of housing price on the vertical axis. We are in a bubble since and we are relying on stimulus to keep the party going. There is more stimulus to be dealt before we tank and the graph would clearly show this.

    I think the next stimulus will be loosening lending standards leading to irresponsible borrowing which will make housing prices boom and then a crash. As you saw in the last crash lending was loosened to only specific groups and then everyone. I think the same thing is going to happen again and this thing is going to burn to the ground again. If we can see it coming, we can plan and get an idea when the bottom will hit. It’s coming and I want to retire after this one so I can dedicate more time to this site.

  14. 14
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 9 – And I just noticed in your post #9 you took two of my statements from separate posts and completely different contexts and combined them into one thought. That’s dirty pool Bro.

  15. 15
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 10 – You are mistaken that the Fed actually controls the interest rate. Check out the data this year.

    Date / 10yr Yield / Eff. Fed Funds Rate
    1/2/20 / 1.88% / 1.55%
    3/2/20 / 1.10% / 1.59%
    3/4/20 / 1.02% / 1.09% <= Emergency Fed Rate Cut #1
    3/13/20 / 0.94% / 1.10%
    3/16/20 / 0.73% / 0.25% <= Emergency Fed Rate Cut #2
    8/4/20 / 0.52% / 0.10%
    11/9/20 / 0.96% / 0.09%

    As the above data shows, the treasury market leads Fed in rate direction, not the other way round. Note that 10yr yield has risen from the low of 0.52% on August 4 to 0.96% today, an 85% increase, when the Fed Funds rate held steady in that period. If the Fed persists to maintain the current 'low' rates when 10yr yields continue to rise, it risks losing control of the market. They won't allow it to happen so they will belatedly follow the market higher, and even race ahead to regain control. Isn't confidence in the Fed the game in town? Can't lose that. LOL.

    Sources: St Louis Fed and YChats

  16. 16
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 15 – I didn’t say “the Fed controls the interest rate”. I’m not even sure what that statement means. What is “the interest rate”?

    You should re-read what I wrote.

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 16
    I’ve tried to help Eastsider repeatedly. Eastsider hears what Eastsider wants to hear and is not open to learning. Just move on man and use your energy to invest and better your life.

    Fed lowers and interest rates to increase inflation, they have been doing it for many years. The fed said they will keep interest rates low until 2024 a couple months ago. They also started a program to let inflation run over the 2% mark for a while because inflation has been low.

    You can go around arguing with people like Eastsider your entire life and get nowhere.

    I’m reading “48 Laws of Power.” Law number 10 is Avoid Unhappy and Unlucky People. Arguing with Eastsider will only bring you down. Not worth your time.

  18. 18
    Eastsider says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 16:

    I didn’t say “the Fed controls the interest rate”. I’m not even sure what that statement means. What is “the interest rate”?

    You should re-read what I wrote.

    Well, you suggested the Fed controls interest rates. No? “The Fed has flat out stated that they’re keeping interest rates low for years to come” – justsomedude12

    In practice, market dictates interest rates, not the Fed. Sure the Fed can try and they do, but they can’t move against the market indefinitely.

  19. 19
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 18 – Now re-read my post #2.

  20. 20
    Mackenzie says:

    Central banks (including the Fed) have proven incapable of sparking inflation. The massive QE over the last decade has only resulted in interest rates declining and inflation indexes remaining flat. The US has seen some asset bubbles, but many countries engaging in QE haven’t seen that (e.g. EU and Japanese stocks have not been in a tear as in the US).

    There is a school of thought that QE is actually deflationary in the long run and sucks money out of the system. It’s a misconception that central banks “print” money. Instead, they only create bank reserves which are NOT the same thing unless banks increase lending. On that measure, banks around the world have been constricting lending (e.g. tightening standards, etc), leading to a contraction in bank lending.

    Without banks increasing lending the consequence is deflation.

    Even government fiscal spending is deflationary because it is funded by bond sales. Selling bonds also sucks currency out of the economy which adds even further to deflationary pressures.

    What we are facing is a growing deflationary force that is re-enforced by every act of QE and fiscal spending, sucking ever more dollars out of the global economy creating the mother of all dollar shortages.

    Just look at the result of the QE and fiscal spending Japan has engaged in since 1989. Japanese asset prices have fallen, interest rates are low, and their economy still struggling. If QE was inflationary the yen should have hit the stratosphere by now.

    The very fact the Fed now says they are going to take the foot off the inflation brake just shows that they have been utterly incapable of sparking inflation over the last 20 years despite engaging in the loosest monetary policy of all time. There is no reason to believe that even more QE will result in inflation since all their other QE efforts have already failed to do so.

    I strongly suggest watching some Jeff Snyder videos. He has an incredible grasp of how central banks work, and paints a compelling thesis that the central banks have gotten themselves caught in a trap they can’t get out of, and that the end result will be massive deflation.

  21. 21

    RE: The Tim @ 6
    Good-bye Tim

    I think you made Erik’s fear clear this time.

    Ardelle and Erik and my plethora of other SB friends can still communicate with me on

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

    This site is not a good site in my book.

  22. 22

    RE: softwarengineer @ 21

    Just hit any article in my own OVERPOPULATION website and comment there instead.

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

    Or email me personally at softwarengineer@yahoo.com, title it from Seattle bubble SWE friends.

  23. 23
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

  24. 24
    Mackenzie says:

    By Eastsider @ 23:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

    Yes, at some point the deflationary contraction will be SO harmful (with growing unemployment, etc), that governments will be forced to either print money in actuality (i.e. rather than just selling bonds or having central banks increase bank reserves with QE) or stop digging a deeper hole and let the economy slowly right itself through creative destruction. However, we are a long way from that point, and deflation will have to be massive before the US government is willing to consider the nuclear option of actual money printing (e.g. through changing the Federal Reserve act, running the presses at the treasury, etc).

  25. 25
    Blurtman says:

    It is Loony Tunes to state that there is no inflation. The cost of healthcare, education and automobiles, for example, have all been increasing over time, at a rate exceeding wage growth, hence the squeeze and indebtedness:

    http://missinghumanmanual.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/healtcosts.gif

    Education: http://blog.unibulmerchantservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/The-State-of-the-Student-Loan-Debt-3.png

    Average student loand debt vs. inflation: http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/debtvinflation.png

    The BLS is wildly underestimating automobile inflation: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/11/my-pickup-truck-car-price-index-for-2021-models-crushes-official-cpi-for-new-vehicles/

  26. 26
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 22
    Have a good one and make as much money as possible.

  27. 27
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 19 – Now reread my comment #17.

  28. 28
    Matt says:

    Hi Tim (and all),

    I’d love to see King county months of inventory plotted over a long period of time (~20 years or so). Anyone know if this is already available somewhere?

    Thanks!

  29. 29
  30. 30
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 25:

    The BLS is wildly underestimating automobile inflation: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/11/my-pickup-truck-car-price-index-for-2021-models-crushes-official-cpi-for-new-vehicles/

    you can’t really compare a pick up to the CPI for new vehicles number. It’s pretty clear that supply outstrips demand and there was a slowdown in construction of pick ups because of the pandemic. But my deal is that the price of most non-pick ups have probably stayed closer to last year’s number and pulled down the average. If the market goes up 15% in a year you can always find stocks that did way better or way worse than that.

  31. 31
    David says:

    By Mackenzie @ 24:

    By Eastsider @ 23:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

    Yes, at some point the deflationary contraction will be SO harmful (with growing unemployment, etc), that governments will be forced to either print money in actuality (i.e. rather than just selling bonds or having central banks increase bank reserves with QE) or stop digging a deeper hole and let the economy slowly right itself through creative destruction. However, we are a long way from that point, and deflation will have to be massive before the US government is willing to consider the nuclear option of actual money printing (e.g. through changing the Federal Reserve act, running the presses at the treasury, etc).

    I’m pretty sure QE reinflated the housing market – bigly.

    I’ve been developing this, as yet, vague theory about how they can inflate housing dramatically and yet deflate the value of the dollar to almost 0% interest on savings.

    I don’t understand how housing prices can be inflated so much unless housing is a defacto currency now. You could almost say a house is a Bitcoin equivalent.

    Reminiscent of when the Rainbow Nation started using Snickers’ as currency and Snickers inflation took over. You couldn’t use money so Snickers just kept inflating more and more.

  32. 32
    pfft says:

    House prices going up so much during a pandemic is not something I thought would happen.

  33. 33
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29 – Ahh, very nice and a bit familiar. But what if you were to add/superimpose monthly interest rates, unemployment %, and closing prices (in $100,000 increments)?

  34. 34
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

  35. 35
    Matt says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29

    Yep! Thank you! Got anything that goes back even further? Interesting that we’re almost into uncharted water on this measure.

  36. 36
    pfft says:

    My brother saved $600/month on a refi if you wonder where people are getting money from.

  37. 37
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

    Sleepy Joe going to wake up the economy.

  38. 38
    northender says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29
    I recall a graph you posted in comments maybe a year ago of rate of appreciation vs months of supply over time, or something like that. Any chance for an update?

  39. 39
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 37
    Please stay on topic. That comment should have been faded out.

    If I comment back with my view, my comment will get faded out.

  40. 40
    David says:

    By pfft @ 37:

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

    Sleepy Joe going to wake up the economy.

    I’m sure the literal lifetime Government Employee is going to rescue the economy. Because he just knows.

  41. 41
    seaH says:

    What’s looser lending like? Have not learned our lessons from 2008-2009 debacle?

    RE: Erik @ 34

  42. 42
    Erik says:

    RE: seaH @ 41
    Fannie/Freddie can change loan to value. Could require 0 down. Could have no credit requirement. May require no proof of income. Basically all the stuff that happened last time could come back or something more creative that hasn’t been seen yet.

    The people in charge of the country don’t want the economy to collapse on their watch. If the last stimulus is loosening lending standards, in the ways mentioned above, to keep the economy afloat, fed will do that. When I see these articles about racism in real estate, I believe that is to prime the public so they allow loosening lending standards for minorities or one specific race. That’s where it starts. After that they’ll keep making risky lending available to more and more groups until it gets all the way to the big white devil. Then housing will go up quickly and come crashing down as it did last cycle.

    This time I’m going on a shopping spree with my exit strategy as foreclosure. I’ll buy a big house in Fremont and a boat with my foreclosure money. Economic collapse creates wealthy people, so have a plan.

  43. 43
    IsErikRichYet says:

    There it is folks: Erik’s end game is to live in Fremont like someone who has been working in tech for 5 or so years. I for one am excited to buy one of his foreclosures just so I can put a sign on the front lawn that says “Some dude that read Rich Dad, Poor Dad and really liked it once owned this house. Once.”

  44. 44
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 43
    My end game is to stack chips without working hard or saving my earned income my whole life.

  45. 45
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 42 – How are you going to get foreclosure money? I don’t understand this strategy unless you can get more money than the house was purchased for.

  46. 46
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

  47. 47
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 46 – Hmm, Don’t Blame the Player, Blame the Game.

    If it worked, it worked.

    If they do no doc loans of any kind again – I’m going in on this too.

  48. 48
    Blurtman says:

    Why wouldn’t renters cut out the middle man, and buy their own homes under a relaxed lending standard scenario? If you don’t need a substantial down payment or sterling credit score, why put money in someone else’s pocket?

  49. 49
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Blurtman @ 48:

    Why wouldn’t renters cut out the middle man, and buy their own homes under a relaxed lending standard scenario? If you don’t need a substantial down payment or sterling credit score, why put money in someone else’s pocket?

    This one is easy to research. Judging from the posts on this site at the time in question, some wanted to maintain geographic flexibility or avoid maintenance work. But most were afraid of the debt; weren’t satisfied with the specific homes they could afford under the relaxed lending scenario; or were waiting to pick up homes for something like 20 cents on the dollar. A more moderate version of this last one worked out pretty well for the Tim, and a few others.

  50. 50
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 49
    Tim got a good deal and paid off his house. He’s definitely a smart guy and made a good play. He was smart enough to sense the bubble and bought at a time that made sense for his family.

    I merely piggy backed off Tim’s intelligence and bought a little after he bought and said he doesn’t think we are at the bottom yet, but we are close. Then I leveraged to buy more real estate.

  51. 51
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 48
    The hierarchy of wealth for poorest to wealthiest is like this…

    1. Renters
    2. Home owners
    3. Landlords

    People on this site argue this point because they are scared, but that’s just how it works and there are infinite examples of this. You get rich buying great investments, not saving money. I’ve been part of all 3 groups and I have by far the lowest stress and highest financial security in group 3 as a landlord.

  52. 52
    SeaH says:

    Well you have to sell the asset to make equity . Yup investments make people rich , not savings . You don’t think the scenarios of renters with stock market equity works ? … think nyc and SF

    RE: Erik @ 51

  53. 53
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 52
    You can sell and make equity. You can also pull money out of the property using a HELOC. When I remodel, I try to get a $100k HELOC after I rent the place out. I don’t pull the money out, I just like to have it ready just in case.

    I’m a real estate fan, not a fan of stock equity. I like to make money off my loans, not real money. I can get loans for millions, get someone else to pay the loan payment, and then collect all the appreciation. It’s called real estate investing.

  54. 54
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 53 – On average, when do you get to the point where you recover the purchase price plus remodel costs? I believe you buy at auction. What is the discount of the auction purchase price versus the theoretical price of the refurbed unit. And I assume that as prices continue to increase, so does this differential.

  55. 55
    Erik says:

    By Blurtman @ 54:

    RE: Erik @ 53 – On average, when do you get to the point where you recover the purchase price plus remodel costs? I believe you buy at auction. What is the discount of the auction purchase price versus the theoretical price of the refurbed unit. And I assume that as prices continue to increase, so does this differential.

    It all depends on how good of a deal I got at the auction. Every one I’ve ever done I’ve been able to recover the remodel cost plus any holding or purchasing cost that first year. My goal is to refinance after the remodel at 75% LTV and get all my expenses back. That happens sometimes. If I took out a HELOC with 85% LTV, I would recoup my investment every time, but like I said, I’m a low risk investor. I’m conservative and I like the 25% equity just in case the market crashes. I got a lot of capital selling that Alki condo, so I just use that money for remodel and buying and reinvest back into the business.

    Last place I bought in Rainier for $311k appraised for $580k after the remodel, but I had to spend some money on that one. I definitely increase my net worth every time and that’s my main goal. In a perfect world I’d get 75% LTV and pull all my remodel cost out so I can do it again. The Rainier place has 75% LTV, but I had to leave some money in the deal. No big problem as I’ve made that money back already with the forbearance since I was financially affected by Covid.

    I’ve gotten other deals where I spend under $10k on remodel, pull my remodel cost out and get 75% LTV. So really it all depends on the deal.

  56. 56
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 55 – Sounds like an exciting strategy. You are having third parties (renters) pay the loan that you have taken out to purchase an asset. And you are arbitraging the post-rehab versus pre-refab distress sale value of the assets.

    Effective candidate screening to ensure that renters will have the wherewithal to continue to pay your loan is important. Wise to make tats, unless MAGA, an automatic rule-out. And keeping a cushion to weather a downside in RE valuations, for which the magnitude for a given asset decreases with time in an appreciating market, is also key.

    Barring a WW depression, which will destroy the ability of your renters to pay your loans, as well as destroy asset value, you should do well. Needless to say, a WW depression will destroy just about every other asset class as well.

    The Sammamish admissions council may move your residency application to the B pool, but I must remind you that your past Everret residency is an anchor on the prospect of rising further. The committee asks that I pass along their thanks for your generous contributuon to the upcoming Sammamish debutante ball winter cotillion. Well done!

  57. 57
    Notme says:

    Get your tools ready
    Debutante cotillion
    Some fixer-uppers there

    -a high-society bubble haiku

  58. 58
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 56
    Tell the Samammish admissions council thank you for moving my application to the B pool. I’m making money off the sweaty backs of the less fortunate just like the Samammish residents do and I’m practicing my badminton skills. I feel like I’m getting closer to that highfalutin Samammish lifestyle I deserve.

  59. 59
    Mackenzie says:

    I’ve noticed that some landlords are significantly increasing the up-front money they require for rentals to insulate themselves against the possibility of deadbeats under the eviction moratoriums (e.g. asking for more months of pre-paid rent as a deposit). I saw one discussion on Nextdoor where a renter said a Kirkland landlord increased the deposit they needed for a single family home from something like $10,000 to $23,000.

    I wonder what effect widespread increases in up front rental deposits would have on the over-all market. It would likely lower the number of renters who could meet this higher deposit terms. I find it hard to see how landlords could demand BOTH higher deposits and higher prices particularly with unemployment growing. Of course, landlords could just decide it’s better to keep their rentals vacant.

  60. 60
    David says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

  61. 61
    David says:

    Still here in Florida:

    1) Multiple Houses Going Up in My Hood – One by a Brazilian Family
    2) State Fair is Ongoing
    3) Everything is OPEN
    4) Flip Flop Weather is Ongoing (I really underestimated how much flip-flops would become a staple)
    5) About to Pass a Law Making It LEGAL to Run Over ANTIFA/BLM Types Who Menace You (No Monetary Liability – Just Trophy Pics for Later Enjoyment and Reminiscing)
    6) Housing Values Expected to Rise Almost 10% Over the Next Year in My Area.

  62. 62
    Mackenzie says:

    By David @ 60:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

    Will landlord requirements for high up-front deposits lead to higher or lower rent prices?

  63. 63
    N says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59

    It’s probably also true that many of the recent rental laws the city has passed also contribute to landlords increasing their criteria – No criminal background check, requirement to lease to 1st qualified applicant etc
    (Note, I am note sure which of the many laws are still in place/survived the courts).

  64. 64
    Eastsider says:

    IMO, if a landlord requires high up-front deposits, he prioritizes good tenants over high rents.

    If you are a Seattle landlord, you need to get out of the rental business. From Tenants Union –

    Outside of Seattle, there is no limit on how much a landlord can charge for a deposit. Often landlords will ask for an extra deposit if you have less than perfect credit.

    In Seattle, landlords are required to charge no more than 1 month’s rent for security deposit and nonrefundable fees. Additionally, tenants are allowed up to a 6 month payment plan for the security deposit, any nonrefundable fees, and last month’s rent.

  65. 65
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 64
    Thank you for your opinion. It’s great to hear what a mutual fund investor that paid off their house in Redmond thinks about the Seattle rental market. Thanks for coaching us Seattle landlords. Sitting across the pond in your paid for house writing code is a great qualification to be a Seattle real estate pro on this website.

  66. 66
    David says:

    By Mackenzie @ 62:

    By David @ 60:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

    Will landlord requirements for high up-front deposits lead to higher or lower rent prices?

    You would think maybe lower? – But then again maybe not – Jut apply the Deposit to the Backend for Rent.

    Bottom line – Renters are Paying Up A Lot more Money. Maybe a balloon payment lease?

  67. 67
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 65 – Eastsider is good like that. He’s always very concerned about Seattle property owners and relentlessly attempts to get them to tamp down their expectations. Seattle property owners need not worry, because Eastsider does enough worrying for all of them!

  68. 68
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 65 – It’s not just my opinion. According to Zumper, studio and 1BR apartment rents in Seattle are currently at all time low since tracking began in Nov 2014. 2BR rent is currently at $2,052 compared to the high of $3,006 on July 2, 2016, and is on track to hit all time low in December. It is insane to pay more for an asset class with collapsing return and soaring expense. Business 101?

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  69. 69
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 68

    This is the second time you have referenced that Zumper graph and called the July2, 2016 the legitimate top of 2br rents. The spike is certainly an aberration and deserves an explaining footnote. Zumper is asleep at the wheel on the spike, and you continue to cherry pick it.
    Any data person worth their salt wold not let that stand without explanation, or at least a comment.

  70. 70
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 69

    Do you have a better source? According to a second source, Rent Jungle, 2BR rent in Seattle was $2,802 in June 2016. Seattle rent prices was spiking so high that the Seattle Times even wrote an article about it in July 2016.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-rents-now-growing-faster-than-in-any-other-us-city/

  71. 71
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 69

    Also, 1BR and 2BR rents in Bellevue hold up much better than in Seattle. It is now more expensive and desirable to live in Bellevue than in Seattle. Who would’ve thunk?

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/bellevue-wa

  72. 72
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 70
    It’s a “man bites dog” story, absolutely because its anomalous. Of course the local fish wrap wrote on it.
    Where was the follow up when by what, August? , that rents reverted to trend or thereabouts.

    The question is what drew the spike? I’m guessing a data collection problem.

    You can have Bellevue, and the spiked-high 2br rent all to yourself :)

  73. 73
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 68
    In my world by green lake rents are definitely down, but not down to 2014 rents. A couple weeks ago I filled a 2 bedroom at 1950 after it sat empty for 5 weeks and several price drops. When I found out the last tenants would be clearing out I thought it would get 2200. It seemed like more folks than usual decided in October they were going to stay put for the winter. I was happy to get it occupied before the holidays.

  74. 74
    Blurtman says:

    Is the decrease in rent pricing due to an imbalance on the supply side, or on the demand side, or both? Even as far back as pre-COVID19 2018 there have been stories about an oversupply of apartments.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/free-amazon-echo-2-months-free-rent-2500-gift-cards-seattle-apartment-glut-gives-renters-freebies/

    While there are numerous anectdotal stories about people fleeing Seattle due to the city’s pro-crime, anti-police stance, and of course, COVID19, what does the data show?

    If there is indeed an over-supply, then one might expect builders to adjust and for supply to get more aligned to demand over time. And if people are fleeing Seattle due to COVID19 fears, one might expect this to change once vaccines are widely available.

    While it might be refreshing for WA state to institute a shoot the looters/run over the rioters law, as in FLA, WA state will probably be stuck with the coddle the criminals policy status quo, and so there may not be relief for those concerned about crime.

  75. 75
    Eastsider says:

    RE: northender @ 73 – The Zumper stat is for citywide. I assume apartment vacancy rate in Capitol Hill is currently at multi-year high.

    1BR rent in Seattle has declined 17% YoY compared to 2% drop in Bellevue. Seattle’s desirability has clearly taken a huge hit. It is self-inflicted.

  76. 76
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 73
    May I ask the reason the tenant left the 2br in North Seattle?

  77. 77
    northender says:

    RE: Erik @ 76
    With a toddler and a newborn there wasn’t enough space. They got tenants out of their Tacoma house and moved there.

  78. 78

    RE: northender @ 73

    What was the tenant who left paying? You said “I thought it would get$2,200”. More importantly, was the previous tenant paying more or less than what you just rented it for?

  79. 79
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 78
    I’ll offer up my data point. All my units have re-rented to the same tenants for the same rent as last year except for my 1br on the west Seattle side of the west Seattle bridge, which broke down making it a less desirable place to live. That rent went from $1650 to $1490 per month and it was on the market for 2 weeks I believe. Most people are staying put I think. Then again, my only property that has ever had turnover is that 1br. The rest may just be longterm tenants and I don’t think anyone re-rents to the same tenants at a lower price unless there was a major catastrophe.

  80. 80

    RE: Erik @ 79

    Agree. Just thought it was odd that he/she didn’t note a loss of rental price comparing the new tenant to the old tenant. If he’s getting an amount equal to what the previous tenant was paying, then he isn’t experiencing a loss at all. Why would he have to guess at what he might get if he already knew the rent price of the current tenant? That he wanted $2,200 but could only get the same price he was already getting, as example, is not a loss.

  81. 81

    RE: don @ 69

    Anytime anyone quotes numbers for “Seattle”, and especially now, it’s invalid anyway.

    As example in NYC, Manhattan rent prices are down 16% while Brooklyn prices are down 5%.

    Seattle’s a big place. When the variance is high as noted above for NYC as to the Boroughs, melding the two is of no value to anyone.

  82. 82
    don says:

    Five year trendline for aggregate rents in the msa looks a lot like a five year graph for SPY.

    A finer grained look would turn up city/neighborhood differences, but the trend favors rental housing investors.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA423SEHA

    Will the world start spinning backwards next week and Seattle be abandoned to the squirrels and raccoons?
    Place your bets.

  83. 83
    don says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 81
    Good point and agreed.

    For some posts in here, it has looked to me once in a while that the entire puget sound basin is “Seattle” according to some.

    White center vs Fremont vs north Capitol hill vs Queen Anne?
    Aggregate numbers are just a big mudhole.

    It’s hard to find reliable data.

  84. 84
    northender says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 80
    The previous folks had been around a couple years and were paying 2100. An identical unit with a lake view but finishes that aren’t as nice rented in July for 2350 with multiple applicants. There’s always reduced interest in the fall but this year it’s substantially lower than normal.

  85. 85
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 81:

    Anytime anyone quotes numbers for “Seattle”, and especially now, it’s invalid anyway.

    When the numbers are bad, they are suddenly no good. Okay, I get it. Maybe you can apply for an apartment rental in Capital Hill and see how many free months rent they offer.

    Is C-S HPI still good?

  86. 86

    RE: northender @ 84

    Thank you. There’s often a variance of that much for position in the complex such as ground floor or upper floor or some other minor difference. Most landlords are renewing with no increase. So I think you did OK. Agree that June vs November could create that variance in and of itself.

  87. 87

    RE: Eastsider @ 85

    My statement is not a change in my long term position and no, I don’t change my opinion based on “good news” vs bad news, and I’m 99% sure you already know that. I have zero reason to do that.

  88. 88
    Market Psychologist says:

    Welp, I threw in the towel and bought a condo. Good luck to all!

  89. 89
    Erik says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 88
    Awesome! I think now is probably a good time to buy a condo as some areas are down. Would you share the area you bought?

    If you move out because you want something new or you need a house, I’d get a leasing agent you like and rent it. It’s a great low risk way to tip toe into real estate investing assuming you aren’t doing so already. Then in 10 years, sell it and pay off the new house and live mortgage free. That’s was my line of thinking until I got hooked as the process is repeatable.

  90. 90
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Eastsider has been very nervous about what he claims may be the death of cities as a result of a permanent flight to the suburbs (like the Eastside). I’ve tried to tell him not to worry, that there will always be people who enjoy city living and they will come back when covid is under control, but he persists. I know he’s just a concerned citizen, rather than being a troll with an agenda. Maybe this will soothe his anxiety just a bit:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/success/vaccine-real-estate-new-york-city/index.html

  91. 91
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 90
    Some people think if they keep pushing their opinions they can somehow control the market in which they have no control over. Remember Sfrz, Justme, and that agent that ran around to open houses in Woodinville counting the number of people attending to predict the future of Seattle housing prices? They all predicted a huge crash when prices were at the bottom in 2019. Like Eastsider, they thought by repeating the same mantra and posting fake data, they could control housing prices. They were all wrong and they are gone now. Eastsider will be wrong and we’ll add him to the previously mentioned list.

    Eastsider is a mutual fund investor that lives in Redmond and owns his house outright. There is nothing wrong with that ultra conservative approach, but those people usually do that because they don’t understand the markets and that is the case with Eastsider. He took the slow growth path and he now casts stones at people way ahead of him on the fast growth path.

  92. 92
    ruxpert says:

    How Bad/Good the 2021 Housing Crash will Be [Details].
    https://youtu.be/NvLRC4e5Res

  93. 93
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 92
    Kevin is my favorite. I’ve seen that video. The only tv I watch anymore is meetKevin. I dumped Boeing stock and bought Tesla right before Boeing boomed. I thought I made a big mistake and then S&P500 announced it will add Tesla and Tesla explodes.

    Kevin’s most recent video is a warning of a mutual fund bubble. Well, he doesn’t really make that conclusion, but big short predicted a mutual fund bubble in 2009 and now another fund manager is predicting one. I have a bad history with stocks, so don’t listen to me. I just thought it was timely since I’ve been sparring with mutual fund investors that think they basically eliminated their risk my investing in mutual funds. Not taking a stance here, but it is interesting.

  94. 94
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 93

    Roger that, Erik.
    Thanks for that info share.
    I am playing it safe currently, sitting in cash / RE, not sure what else I want to do beyond lazy leisure living.
    (bought gold mining fund in March, which doubled since; wishing I would have bought more. ;-)

  95. 95
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 94
    Cash/RE and gold is a great place to be right now I think. You are hedged against inflation and ready to jump on some deals when the RE market finally goes down.

  96. 96
    Bumble says:

    By Erik @ 46:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

    There was a time when a person would be too ashamed to share that kind of unethical plan for personal enrichment, even if it is perfectly legal. The people granting those home loans are entrepreneurs and business people with families to feed, just like you. The plan you described takes their money in bad faith, locks it up, uses it to collect tenant rents while the wheels of justice turn slowly (to protect families who borrow in good faith), and forces them to claw it back after legal fees, likely at a loss. There are plenty of ways to make money in real estate without screwing other people. The law sets a very low bar for personal behavior, we should all strive to exceed it.

  97. 97
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 96
    I’ll let this website know if I do it and I’ll even post the estimated happiness level of my family and I in the comment section before and after.

    Thank you for the feedback.

  98. 98
    Blurtman says:

    My brother-in-law is in the uper 2% wealth percentile. I asked him how he did it. He doesn’t invest in RE, per se, but only as shelter. Nonetheless, he pocketed around $400k on the sale of his Eastside home. He purchased a new place with cash, using this money as well as money from savings. No mortgage. He said he debated getting a mortgage, especially considering the low rates, and investing the cash in the market, but the psychological benefit of being debt free won out.

    He invests religiously in his 401k, and maxes out his employer’s match. He said he is in it for the long term, and did not cash out in the last Wall Street fraud financial meltdown. But beside that, he starts and sells businesses. He said that in addition to pocketing the purchase price of his company, the acquirer typically wants him to come along, to ease in the transition, and to stay, if he wants, at a very decent salary.

    He is from a very lower middle class background, and frankly is a self made man. I asked him if he thought there is still opprotunity in the USA for folks to rise above their economic situation, and he looked me in the eye, and said basically, that no one is going to give you anything, there are no guarantees. The best you can do is to try and when you get knocked down to get up, learn from the experience, and do it again, and again, but hopefully better. I can’t say that that is bad advice.

  99. 99
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98
    Tell your Rich Eastside brother in law to help out this low class Seattle landlord from north Everett. I need to scale but it’s hard to rewrite my North Everett mentality.

  100. 100
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98 – This is the way. If people would turn off HGTV and other RE porn sources, they would realize that RE is a small part of an overall strategy. The order:

    1. Emergency cash savings – at least six months, but preferably a year. Maybe more depending on your
    2. Debt – pay off the credit card debt, or adjust your lifestyle to get there.
    3. Car – Reliable transportation can be had for $5K. Cars have become incredibly reliable, so drive an old car purchased with cash.
    4. Max out all tax-deferred and post-tax retirement opportunities. Start this young.
    5. NOW consider home ownership, but weigh it against renting for your own local conditions. Use rent/buy calculators to properly account for opportunity cost. Don’t forget maintenance costs, which over long run are about 1 percent of purchase price per year. When you consider a home to buy, make sure you could hang onto it for several years if you lost your job.
    6. Invest in low-cost index funds, perhaps the Bogle 3-fund strategy to start.
    7. Invest in yourself. Accredited online learning opportunities are everywhere, and they are dirt cheap compared to traditional in-person university.
    8. Understand the Trinity Study and how it applies to retirement. Modify SWR to fit your risk tolerance. It’s simple math.

    I’m not the sharpest tack in the box, but following this approach allowed me to retire a few years ago in my early 40s. Now I am doing things I want while I still have physical health. Didn’t want to be one those bitter old dues driving around in an S-class, but with little time left on the clock.

  101. 101
    MA2 says:

    RE: Bumble @ 96
    Totally agree, Bumble. It’s an unethical strategy, and I am curious if this RE investor would appreciate it if one of his tenants used it on him. Imagine a tenant who signs a 12-month lease under Covid, has no intention to pay, and then lives rent-free off Erik for the next year due to the current restrictions on evictions.
    I am a landlord, and I would be pissed. Therefore, when I sign a closing document promising to pay, I pay.
    There is really no reason to lose your soul just because you like to buy real estate.

  102. 102
    MA2 says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100
    This is some very sound advice. I personally would change #4 and 5.
    4. Get your company match on 401k.
    5. Save for a down payment and buy a home in which the monthly PITI is less than or equal to current rental value of the property. Worse case scenario, you lose your job or have to move in a downturn, you should be able to rent it out and (mostly) cover the monthly payment.

    Beyond your company 401k match, it is a matter of preference whether you want to focus on stocks/bonds or real estate. I choose to do both.

  103. 103
    Blurtman says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100 – Ha, ha! My brother-in-law and my sister buy cars for transportation, only, and keep them until they have over 200k on them. I keep telling them they should buy Porsches to which they roll their eyes.

    I think the Trinity study has spawned many of the retirement calculators you can now find on line, with inputs that include yearly withdrawl rate. epected rate of inflation, expected return on assets, etc.

    One area that I may help my BIL in – his financial advisor has him invested in a large number of individual funds that in sum, are underperforming total stock and total bond funds. So a lower return for which he pays his advisor to boot. I think he may be coming around on this one.

  104. 104
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100
    You announced you retired years ago and then about a year ago you stated you were living in trash hole Arlington Wa and working. You lie like a rug,

  105. 105
    Erik says:

    RE: MA2 @ 101
    I sometimes wake up in a cold sweat with dreams of the devil chasing me. I have to take my family on a European vacation with forbearance money to feel better.

  106. 106
    OA says:

    By wreckingbull @ 100:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98 – This is the way. If people would turn off HGTV and other RE porn sources, they would realize that RE is a small part of an overall strategy. The order:

    1. Emergency cash savings – at least six months, but preferably a year. Maybe more depending on your
    2. Debt – pay off the credit card debt, or adjust your lifestyle to get there.
    3. Car – Reliable transportation can be had for $5K. Cars have become incredibly reliable, so drive an old car purchased with cash.
    4. Max out all tax-deferred and post-tax retirement opportunities. Start this young.
    5. NOW consider home ownership, but weigh it against renting for your own local conditions. Use rent/buy calculators to properly account for opportunity cost. Don’t forget maintenance costs, which over long run are about 1 percent of purchase price per year. When you consider a home to buy, make sure you could hang onto it for several years if you lost your job.
    6. Invest in low-cost index funds, perhaps the Bogle 3-fund strategy to start.
    7. Invest in yourself. Accredited online learning opportunities are everywhere, and they are dirt cheap compared to traditional in-person university.
    8. Understand the Trinity Study and how it applies to retirement. Modify SWR to fit your risk tolerance. It’s simple math.

    I’m not the sharpest tack in the box, but following this approach allowed me to retire a few years ago in my early 40s. Now I am doing things I want while I still have physical health. Didn’t want to be one those bitter old dues driving around in an S-class, but with little time left on the clock.

    100% agreed! Good post!

  107. 107
    ruxpert says:

    This is a really odd time to be having a “housing boom”. We are in the middle of the worst public health crisis in 100 years, endless civil unrest has been ravaging many of our largest cities, and we are experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But even though more than 70 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits this year, home sales are absolutely rocking. How in the world is this possible? (Read More…)

    The Great Relocation:
    Americans Are Relocating By The Millions Because They Can Feel What Is Coming
    November 22, 2020 by Michael Snyder
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-great-relocation-americans-are-relocating-by-the-millions-because-they-can-feel-what-is-coming


    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/what-is-the-great-reset

  108. 108
    Mackenzie says:

    A quick check of Redmond and Bellevue apartment rentals on Zillow for 11/25/2020 shows a lot of discounting going on. It’s striking to see several places offering two months free on a one year lease. That’s a pretty big discount over list prices. I guess the list prices don’t mean much anymore.

    – Sofi Somerset 13180 Newport Way, Bellevue, WA 98006 – 4 weeks free
    – Reflections by Windsor 6332 E Lake Sammamish Pkwy NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 1 month free
    – AVA Esterra Park 15301 NE Turing St, Redmond, WA 98052 – 1.5 months free
    – Belcarra 10688 NE 10th St, Bellevue, WA 98004 – 15% off rent
    – Ellington at Bellevue 11200 NE 11th St, Bellevue, WA 98004 – 5% off rent
    – Palisades 13808 NE 12th St, Bellevue, WA 98005 – 10% off rent
    – Redmond Hill 6110 186th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 10% off rent
    – The Carter 7508 159th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free
    – The Bravern 688 110th Ave NE, Bellevue, WA 98004 – one month free
    – Hyde Square Apartments 2030 155th Pl NE, Bellevue, WA 98007 – six weeks free
    – The Triangle 16450 Redmond Way, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free
    – Heron Flats + Lofts 7662 159th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free

  109. 109
    don says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 108
    Thanks for the work, Mackenzie.
    That puts some color on the data in contrast to broad brush aggregation sites that purport to be authoritative.

  110. 110
    Eastsider says:

    Apartment List November 2020 Seattle Rent Report –

    M/M Rent Growth -4.2%
    Y/Y Rent Growth -12.2%

    https://www.apartmentlist.com/wa/seattle#rent-report

  111. 111
    justsomedude12 says:

    LOL. Eastsider doesn’t like the fact that rents on the Eastside are down as well. That contradicts his narrative that Seattle is dead and everyone wants to live on the Eastside!

    Keep up your pro-Eastside crusade Eastsider! I’m sure your posts on here are convincing everyone that the Eastside is where they should be!

  112. 112
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 111
    Closed minded. Eastsider is here to boost his ego, not learn and grow.

  113. 113
    David says:

    On my waterfront block here in FL this week:

    2 x $1.8M houses under contract for construction.
    1 x $1.2M house across the street under contract for construction.

    This makes 7 houses on this one street brand new under construction now.

  114. 114
    David says:

    By Bumble @ 96:

    By Erik @ 46:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

    There was a time when a person would be too ashamed to share that kind of unethical plan for personal enrichment, even if it is perfectly legal. The people granting those home loans are entrepreneurs and business people with families to feed, just like you. The plan you described takes their money in bad faith, locks it up, uses it to collect tenant rents while the wheels of justice turn slowly (to protect families who borrow in good faith), and forces them to claw it back after legal fees, likely at a loss. There are plenty of ways to make money in real estate without screwing other people. The law sets a very low bar for personal behavior, we should all strive to exceed it.

    Hmm:

    1) Every contract has a covenant of good faith and fair dealing. (-1 for Erik)
    2) If banks are lending money to Erik and somehow the whole world blows up, Erik gets to implement his plan.
    3) The plan is a false hope if the national economy doesn’t blow up like in the Obama depression.

  115. 115
    Eastsider says:

    According to Zumper, Bellevue 1BR rent is currently down 5% YoY. (A week ago, it was down 2% YoY.)

    1BR and 2BR rents in Seattle are at their lowest level since Zumper started tracking in 2014.

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  116. 116
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 114
    Do you think we’ll see another crash like last time in the next 5 years?

  117. 117
    Erik says:

    RE: MA2 @ 102
    I think you are a mutual fund investor posing as a landlord. Owning a portfolio of rentals is a business and in business, you make decisions that are best for your business. Either that or you are green and don’t understand investing in real estate yet.

  118. 118
    Voight-kampff says:

    Eric,

    I’m rooting for you, and I’ve got no problem with sticking it to the banks, but food for thought. In many states it’s not illegal to leave your baby unattended in a car, or to Marry your cousin.
    There is nothing illegal about cutting in line, or snapping to get your servers attention, or lying to your friends. But these are not good things. I guess what I’m saying is, the world is what we make it. All that said, I’m rooting for you and I hope you get what you’re looking for. Happy thanksgiving!

  119. 119
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 118
    Happy thanksgiving and you are one of my favorite commenters. I think your condo purchase contract flip idea was genius and I’d like to try that too sometime. This is just another idea and I will probably never do it, just trolling for debate I suppose.

  120. 120
    David says:

    By Erik @ 116:

    RE: David @ 114
    Do you think we’ll see another crash like last time in the next 5 years?

    I really am not sure what is happening in the mortgage market so it is hard to know whether a serious housing crash is coming. New SF housing starts are still below 1M units a year (less than in 1959).

    My guess is that there will not be a major housing crash for along time. Regionally perhaps it might if a major industry tanks.

    Course, Biden is likely to empower China so everything is up in the air if China ever gets their economy to nose past us. If China were to replace the US Dollar we are screwed and housing will free fall.

    Looks like we are going to have a tired, doddering idiot as President who won’t have the energy or talent to do anything but what he has done in the past.

  121. 121
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 120
    I agree, Joe Biden will make America a weaker country. That doesn’t mean you can’t make money. George W Bush and Barak Obama were in my opinion, 2 of the worst presidents this country has ever had. I know a lot of people that made a lot of money foreclosing and scooping up foreclosures during their presidency. It’s just a different game, but you can still make a lot of money at.

  122. 122
    ruxpert says:

    A Lake View Residence By Christie’s International Real Estate Seattle
    https://www.hauteresidence.com/lake-view-residence-christies-international-real-estate-seattle/
    ===

    Cali Mansion Once Listed For $100 Million Sells For “Only” $48.4 Million
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/cali-mansion-once-listed-100-million-sells-only-484-million

  123. 123
    ruxpert says:

    Talking Housing & Real Estate Investing with Meet Kevin!
    https://youtu.be/Myn9KIBjtCk

  124. 124
    northender says:

    Here’s some interesting history of asking rents for a 2 bedroom condo in downtown Kirkland on zillow. It went for 1800 pretty quickly in 2016. There must have been strong interest when it was listed at 1800 in 2017 because the price went up to 2000 after a couple days and it rented in less than 2 weeks. Then this past August it was listed at 2400 but that didn’t work so rent has been dropping. It was delisted for a month and just relisted for 1850, most likely to reset zillow’s “days listed” counter so it looks like a fresh listing to casual lookers. So at least for this condo, rent has dropped to what it was in 2016.

    11/23/2020 Listed for rent $1,850 (-11.9%)
    Source: Onerent, Inc.
    10/20/2020 Listing removed $2,099
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    9/24/2020 Price change $2,099 (-4.6%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    9/4/2020 Price change $2,200 (-8.3%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    8/12/2020 Listed for rent $2,400 (+20%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    2/14/2017 Listing removed $2,000
    Source: OneRent
    2/2/2017 Price change $2,000 (+11.1%)
    Source: OneRent
    1/30/2017 Listed for rent $1,800
    Source: OneRent
    3/23/2016 Listing removed $1,800
    Source: OneRent
    3/14/2016 Listed for rent $1,800
    Source: Zillow Rental Manager
    2/20/2014 Sold $315,500

  125. 125

    RE: Erik @ 121
    Just Stopped By to say Happy Thanksgiving Weekend!

    I’m blogging on news outlets that get millions of hits unlike Seattle Bubble [what does it have? 5 different commenters now?], thanks Tim for giving me the incentive to greener pastures from this extinct website…

    Don’t waste your time on this dead website folks….its a joke.

  126. 126
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 125

    SWE, please share links of ‘outlet’s you alluded to.
    Thanks

  127. 127
    ruxpert says:

    Squint long enough at the cranes poking through Seattle’s skyline these days and they may start to resemble middle fingers. Rising between hotels and office buildings that have stood empty for months, new developments have seemed like brazen, even reckless, projections of normalcy amid our stay-home state. Of course, some of these projects were well underway by the time Covid-19 began spreading in their shadows; it’s difficult to pull the plug from 40 stories up. But more nascent construction raises the question: Should builders be this optimistic about downtown’s future?

    What’s the State of Commercial Real Estate in Seattle?
    Where you’re reading this from might offer a clue short-term. But it might obscure the long view.
    By Benjamin Cassidy 11/25/2020
    https://www.seattlemet.com/home-and-real-estate/2020/11/what-s-the-state-of-commercial-real-estate-in-seattle

  128. 128
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 127 – The closing paragraphs from this article, summing up the thoughts:

    “Hatcher isn’t down on Seattle’s long-term prospects, though. Like many realtors, he expects workers to come back and an urban “renaissance” to take root. “This is my fourth recession in the industry. The bigger cities with the real high rents get hurt first, but they’re always the first to bounce back. This isn’t going to be any different. Most companies want to be where their employees are. And most of the employees want to be in downtown, young employees out of college want to be in downtown settings.”

    The Colliers report echoes that sentiment. “It would be foolish to write off Puget Sound’s pre-eminent skyline market,” it concludes. “Companies will continue to want access to University of Washington’s steady stream of talent and the prestige that comes with occupying trophy office towers.”

    Or, as some of them once were, middle fingers.”

  129. 129
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 124
    Us 1 and 2br condo owners are getting pounded right now. Anyone losing money due to the pandemic should be taking mortgage forbearance for a year. Did rents decrease due to Covid? Yes! So take the darn forbearance.

    I’m looking to go condo shopping in Seattle and Kirkland in 2021 and probably 2022. Back up the rental truck while prices are low. Sell some when prices are high. It’s really that simple folks. I want 2br condos as they are so easy and they stay rented. Houses are still going up, so hang onto those and look to sell 2024 if prices are still up. Use the profits to pay off the condos. It’s just a shell game.

  130. 130
    Seah says:

    How big a drop do you think will occur for condos ?
    RE: Erik @ 129

  131. 131
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 125
    Happy Thanksgiving SWE! My wife had a little girl 11/19, so we have been busy with that.

    I like Tim. Without Tim I wouldn’t have known when to buy and I wouldn’t have met Ardell and Ray Pepper who have both helped me out investing real estate. Tim helped me make the bottom call last bubble that set me up for success. I will not speak negatively of Tim as I greatly appreciate his data and site.

    I’m glad to hear you are having success on some other sites. I’m guessing the other sites are a better fit as this site is specifically about Seattle real estate and you have a larger scope. Enjoy discovering the World Wide Web. You have momentum now, keep blogging!

  132. 132
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 128

    Roger that.
    I’ll try to find something to counter that, so to make the conversation more interesting. ;-)

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