Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

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Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 6 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,517 comments:

  1. 1
    Eastsider says:

    10yr treasury yield has increased from 0.508% on 8/4 to 0.935% today. A year ago today, the yield was 1.89%, and 2 years ago it was 3.142%!

    If the vaccine works, we will likely see higher mortgage rates. In the past 2 years, 30yr fixed mortgage rates range from 5.16% in Nov 2018 to 3.01% in Oct 2020. (Source: MDN.)

    The last time mortgage rates hit 5%, we witnessed our first YoY decline in home prices.

  2. 2
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1 – Higher mortgage rates don’t happen in a vacuum. They happen because the economy is picking up, there is job growth, wages are rising, inflation is trending upward etc…

    In that environment all the positives for the housing market offset the negative of higher rates.

    But keep on hoping for that big downturn, I admire your perseverance and stamina!

  3. 3
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 2 – Interest rate dropped in 2018 when the economy was great, low unemployment, rising wages, low inflation. Just sayin’

  4. 4
    don says:

    The housing teapot will keep singing until the FED turns the fire down. My guess is it will stay on the current trend in Puget sound area for most of 2021.

  5. 5

    Listings Down, Prices way Up; the Perfect Storm to pay More for a House in Seattle Now

    Enjoy the ride sellers…BTW, one home sold [about 10% of those for sale at my 140 count HOA this year]…that million dollar home they’re building next to my HOA now has windows and roof….

    Ohhh…on a related issue to real estate sales is the cost of replacement healthcare in Seattle area. 800K folks are on Obamacare and about to lose their benefits?…but most all of us get our health insurance through employers anyway and employers pick up about 75% of the premium costs…our private insurance bill is about $600/mo per family, compared to the $20,000/yr MSRP. Medicaid or Obamacare Wash St Apple Insurance used to cover even dental, Lord only knows what it covers now, and a lot doctors won’t accept it either [Medicare for that matter too].

    “…The court [SCOTUS] is reviewing a decision [today folks] that found part of the law, also known as Obamacare, unconstitutional. The case raises questions about the fate of health insurance for millions of Americans. The lawsuit was brought by Republican state officials and is backed by President Trump’s administration, which has prioritized abolishing the law…”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/10/scotus-hearing-aca-live-updates/?wpmk=1&wpisrc=al_news__alert-politics–alert-national&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert&pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJjb29raWVuYW1lIjoid3BfY3J0aWQiLCJpc3MiOiJDYXJ0YSIsImNvb2tpZXZhbHVlIjoiNTk2ZGE4ZmRhZGU0ZTIxNWI3Y2VkMjUzIiwidGFnIjoid3BfbmV3c19hbGVydF9yZXZlcmUiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vcG9saXRpY3MvMjAyMC8xMS8xMC9zY290dXMtaGVhcmluZy1hY2EtbGl2ZS11cGRhdGVzLz93cG1rPTEmd3Bpc3JjPWFsX25ld3NfX2FsZXJ0LXBvbGl0aWNzLS1hbGVydC1uYXRpb25hbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWFsZXJ0JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXdwX25ld3NfYWxlcnRfcmV2ZXJlJmxvY2F0aW9uPWFsZXJ0In0.5RGvQRR7XOdeCynRzQ3n5R5ZAjOWBNNyveOOtXzetrc

    Hades, $20-30K/yr MSRP out of pocket cost for decent ACA coverage ain’t chump change either….it eats into affordability of mortgage and rent dollars folks. I see this further restricting average per capita pay from rent in Seattle. More young adults at home in the Seattle basement IOWs.

    New news from the brief on livability in Seattle Area and long-term price estimates:

    “… 2 wounded deputies recovering after gunfight in Woodinville
    Two King County sheriff’s deputies are recovering from their injuries today after a gunfight with an armed man in Woodinville, who was fatally shot in the exchange, according to a sheriff’s spokesperson. The trouble began with a report of a possible car prowler yesterday at an apartment complex that’s usually considered quiet. (Photo: Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s take: The Honda Civic is the most stolen car out there. Key-less ignition newer cars are vulnerable too, if the thief finds your lost keys first…the car honks where its located…

    “…The 2020 Honda Civic continues the decades long of service to enthusiasts. For this model year, the automaker claims that the Civic offers “style for miles,” but looks might be all that’s going for it. Customers complain about the electrical system, suspension and structure defects…”

    Electrical system and structure defects [sounds like the 737 MAX…LOL]? I heard the new 2020 Civic fuel pumps and air bags suck too…

    Good news: you can still get an American engineered air bag that doesn’t explode in your face…buy older cars…LOL

  6. 6
    The Tim says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – No, you can’t make a post that briefly mentions real estate then just veer totally off-topic to healthcare and… automobile safety? Seriously? 🙄

    This is a site about real estate in the Seattle area. Take your political ramblings elsewhere. Thanks.

  7. 7
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 3 – The Fed has flat out stated that they’re keeping interest rates low for years to come, thus maintaining downward pressure on mortgage rates and upward pressure on asset prices.

    Don’t fight the Fed, it’s a battle you’ll never win.

  8. 8
    chip&dip says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6 – Thank you.

  9. 9
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 7 – The Fed will keep the interest rates low for years to come “because the economy is picking up, there is job growth, wages are rising, inflation is trending upward etc…”

    Hmm… can you make up your mind? You can’t have inflation rising and rates staying low at the same time.

  10. 10
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 9 – No, in your post #1 you were inferring that higher mortgage rates would cause a decline in home prices. In reply to that post I said the underlying factors that would cause mortgage rates to rise would also be bullish for home prices, thus negating the dampening effect of higher rates. Again, I was replying to your scenario, I wasn’t saying I think that scenario (higher rates due to inflation, etc…) will transpire any time soon because I don’t think it will.

    I went on to say the Fed has stated they will keep interest rates low for years to come. This is just a fact. Therefore it is almost a certainty that mortgage rates will remain low as well, since although the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, their policies have great influence on mortgage rates.

  11. 11
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Material downturns in housing prices just don’t happen very often. Even a global pandemic couldn’t do it.

  12. 12
    TJ98370 says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6

    Thank goodness – I just had to comment. For an example of where not to go, check out The Housing Bubble Blog (Ben Jones). The comment section of that blog has turned into a super pro-Trump site proclaiming massive voter fraud. Very little to do with real estate anymore. I got banned from the site for suggesting that the commenters were engaging in political right-wing group-think. I guess Ben is not very open to opposing political opinions. We do not want The Seattle Bubble Blog to go down that path.

  13. 13
    Erik says:

    RE: The Tim @ 6
    SWE used the Trojan horse technique. SWE’s comment came in appearing to comply with the rules and quickly transitioned into a hidden agenda. Good catch.

    You said below to leave requests in the comment section, so here it is…. on the horizontal x-axis is time in years perhaps. On the vertical y-axis is median housing prices in king county. Grayed out shading the line graph on the horizontal axis from one year to another year is when and what stimulus the fed provided. Stimulus can come in the form of lowering interest rates and loosening lending standards. This would show everyone including myself the very important part relationship between federal stimulus and how the king county market reacts. This comment comes from “The Housing Boom and Bust” by Thomas Sowell, which I’ve been pushing for 8 years on this site.

    For example, you could mark on the horizontal axis when interest rates went down 1% and show graphically how long it took the market to react and how it reacted in terms of housing price on the vertical axis. We are in a bubble since and we are relying on stimulus to keep the party going. There is more stimulus to be dealt before we tank and the graph would clearly show this.

    I think the next stimulus will be loosening lending standards leading to irresponsible borrowing which will make housing prices boom and then a crash. As you saw in the last crash lending was loosened to only specific groups and then everyone. I think the same thing is going to happen again and this thing is going to burn to the ground again. If we can see it coming, we can plan and get an idea when the bottom will hit. It’s coming and I want to retire after this one so I can dedicate more time to this site.

  14. 14
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 9 – And I just noticed in your post #9 you took two of my statements from separate posts and completely different contexts and combined them into one thought. That’s dirty pool Bro.

  15. 15
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 10 – You are mistaken that the Fed actually controls the interest rate. Check out the data this year.

    Date / 10yr Yield / Eff. Fed Funds Rate
    1/2/20 / 1.88% / 1.55%
    3/2/20 / 1.10% / 1.59%
    3/4/20 / 1.02% / 1.09% <= Emergency Fed Rate Cut #1
    3/13/20 / 0.94% / 1.10%
    3/16/20 / 0.73% / 0.25% <= Emergency Fed Rate Cut #2
    8/4/20 / 0.52% / 0.10%
    11/9/20 / 0.96% / 0.09%

    As the above data shows, the treasury market leads Fed in rate direction, not the other way round. Note that 10yr yield has risen from the low of 0.52% on August 4 to 0.96% today, an 85% increase, when the Fed Funds rate held steady in that period. If the Fed persists to maintain the current 'low' rates when 10yr yields continue to rise, it risks losing control of the market. They won't allow it to happen so they will belatedly follow the market higher, and even race ahead to regain control. Isn't confidence in the Fed the game in town? Can't lose that. LOL.

    Sources: St Louis Fed and YChats

  16. 16
    justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 15 – I didn’t say “the Fed controls the interest rate”. I’m not even sure what that statement means. What is “the interest rate”?

    You should re-read what I wrote.

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 16
    I’ve tried to help Eastsider repeatedly. Eastsider hears what Eastsider wants to hear and is not open to learning. Just move on man and use your energy to invest and better your life.

    Fed lowers and interest rates to increase inflation, they have been doing it for many years. The fed said they will keep interest rates low until 2024 a couple months ago. They also started a program to let inflation run over the 2% mark for a while because inflation has been low.

    You can go around arguing with people like Eastsider your entire life and get nowhere.

    I’m reading “48 Laws of Power.” Law number 10 is Avoid Unhappy and Unlucky People. Arguing with Eastsider will only bring you down. Not worth your time.

  18. 18
    Eastsider says:

    By justsomedude12 @ 16:

    I didn’t say “the Fed controls the interest rate”. I’m not even sure what that statement means. What is “the interest rate”?

    You should re-read what I wrote.

    Well, you suggested the Fed controls interest rates. No? “The Fed has flat out stated that they’re keeping interest rates low for years to come” – justsomedude12

    In practice, market dictates interest rates, not the Fed. Sure the Fed can try and they do, but they can’t move against the market indefinitely.

  19. 19
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 18 – Now re-read my post #2.

  20. 20
    Mackenzie says:

    Central banks (including the Fed) have proven incapable of sparking inflation. The massive QE over the last decade has only resulted in interest rates declining and inflation indexes remaining flat. The US has seen some asset bubbles, but many countries engaging in QE haven’t seen that (e.g. EU and Japanese stocks have not been in a tear as in the US).

    There is a school of thought that QE is actually deflationary in the long run and sucks money out of the system. It’s a misconception that central banks “print” money. Instead, they only create bank reserves which are NOT the same thing unless banks increase lending. On that measure, banks around the world have been constricting lending (e.g. tightening standards, etc), leading to a contraction in bank lending.

    Without banks increasing lending the consequence is deflation.

    Even government fiscal spending is deflationary because it is funded by bond sales. Selling bonds also sucks currency out of the economy which adds even further to deflationary pressures.

    What we are facing is a growing deflationary force that is re-enforced by every act of QE and fiscal spending, sucking ever more dollars out of the global economy creating the mother of all dollar shortages.

    Just look at the result of the QE and fiscal spending Japan has engaged in since 1989. Japanese asset prices have fallen, interest rates are low, and their economy still struggling. If QE was inflationary the yen should have hit the stratosphere by now.

    The very fact the Fed now says they are going to take the foot off the inflation brake just shows that they have been utterly incapable of sparking inflation over the last 20 years despite engaging in the loosest monetary policy of all time. There is no reason to believe that even more QE will result in inflation since all their other QE efforts have already failed to do so.

    I strongly suggest watching some Jeff Snyder videos. He has an incredible grasp of how central banks work, and paints a compelling thesis that the central banks have gotten themselves caught in a trap they can’t get out of, and that the end result will be massive deflation.

  21. 21

    RE: The Tim @ 6
    Good-bye Tim

    I think you made Erik’s fear clear this time.

    Ardelle and Erik and my plethora of other SB friends can still communicate with me on

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

    This site is not a good site in my book.

  22. 22

    RE: softwarengineer @ 21

    Just hit any article in my own OVERPOPULATION website and comment there instead.

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

    Or email me personally at softwarengineer@yahoo.com, title it from Seattle bubble SWE friends.

  23. 23
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

  24. 24
    Mackenzie says:

    By Eastsider @ 23:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

    Yes, at some point the deflationary contraction will be SO harmful (with growing unemployment, etc), that governments will be forced to either print money in actuality (i.e. rather than just selling bonds or having central banks increase bank reserves with QE) or stop digging a deeper hole and let the economy slowly right itself through creative destruction. However, we are a long way from that point, and deflation will have to be massive before the US government is willing to consider the nuclear option of actual money printing (e.g. through changing the Federal Reserve act, running the presses at the treasury, etc).

  25. 25
    Blurtman says:

    It is Loony Tunes to state that there is no inflation. The cost of healthcare, education and automobiles, for example, have all been increasing over time, at a rate exceeding wage growth, hence the squeeze and indebtedness:

    http://missinghumanmanual.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/healtcosts.gif

    Education: http://blog.unibulmerchantservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/The-State-of-the-Student-Loan-Debt-3.png

    Average student loand debt vs. inflation: http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/debtvinflation.png

    The BLS is wildly underestimating automobile inflation: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/11/my-pickup-truck-car-price-index-for-2021-models-crushes-official-cpi-for-new-vehicles/

  26. 26
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 22
    Have a good one and make as much money as possible.

  27. 27
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 19 – Now reread my comment #17.

  28. 28
    Matt says:

    Hi Tim (and all),

    I’d love to see King county months of inventory plotted over a long period of time (~20 years or so). Anyone know if this is already available somewhere?

    Thanks!

  29. 29
  30. 30
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 25:

    The BLS is wildly underestimating automobile inflation: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/11/my-pickup-truck-car-price-index-for-2021-models-crushes-official-cpi-for-new-vehicles/

    you can’t really compare a pick up to the CPI for new vehicles number. It’s pretty clear that supply outstrips demand and there was a slowdown in construction of pick ups because of the pandemic. But my deal is that the price of most non-pick ups have probably stayed closer to last year’s number and pulled down the average. If the market goes up 15% in a year you can always find stocks that did way better or way worse than that.

  31. 31
    David says:

    By Mackenzie @ 24:

    By Eastsider @ 23:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 20 – Sounds logical. But when it reaches the extreme, e.g. when there are more govt bonds than savings, everything will fall apart.

    Yes, at some point the deflationary contraction will be SO harmful (with growing unemployment, etc), that governments will be forced to either print money in actuality (i.e. rather than just selling bonds or having central banks increase bank reserves with QE) or stop digging a deeper hole and let the economy slowly right itself through creative destruction. However, we are a long way from that point, and deflation will have to be massive before the US government is willing to consider the nuclear option of actual money printing (e.g. through changing the Federal Reserve act, running the presses at the treasury, etc).

    I’m pretty sure QE reinflated the housing market – bigly.

    I’ve been developing this, as yet, vague theory about how they can inflate housing dramatically and yet deflate the value of the dollar to almost 0% interest on savings.

    I don’t understand how housing prices can be inflated so much unless housing is a defacto currency now. You could almost say a house is a Bitcoin equivalent.

    Reminiscent of when the Rainbow Nation started using Snickers’ as currency and Snickers inflation took over. You couldn’t use money so Snickers just kept inflating more and more.

  32. 32
    pfft says:

    House prices going up so much during a pandemic is not something I thought would happen.

  33. 33
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29 – Ahh, very nice and a bit familiar. But what if you were to add/superimpose monthly interest rates, unemployment %, and closing prices (in $100,000 increments)?

  34. 34
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

  35. 35
    Matt says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29

    Yep! Thank you! Got anything that goes back even further? Interesting that we’re almost into uncharted water on this measure.

  36. 36
    pfft says:

    My brother saved $600/month on a refi if you wonder where people are getting money from.

  37. 37
    pfft says:

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

    Sleepy Joe going to wake up the economy.

  38. 38
    northender says:

    RE: The Tim @ 29
    I recall a graph you posted in comments maybe a year ago of rate of appreciation vs months of supply over time, or something like that. Any chance for an update?

  39. 39
    Erik says:

    RE: pfft @ 37
    Please stay on topic. That comment should have been faded out.

    If I comment back with my view, my comment will get faded out.

  40. 40
    David says:

    By pfft @ 37:

    By Erik @ 34:

    RE: pfft @ 32
    1% interest rate reduction = 10% price index increase.

    You could argue king county went up 2.9% this year and the rest was from stimulus. Next we need to loosen lending standards for the next bump big bump. That’s when things get interesting.

    Sleepy Joe going to wake up the economy.

    I’m sure the literal lifetime Government Employee is going to rescue the economy. Because he just knows.

  41. 41
    seaH says:

    What’s looser lending like? Have not learned our lessons from 2008-2009 debacle?

    RE: Erik @ 34

  42. 42
    Erik says:

    RE: seaH @ 41
    Fannie/Freddie can change loan to value. Could require 0 down. Could have no credit requirement. May require no proof of income. Basically all the stuff that happened last time could come back or something more creative that hasn’t been seen yet.

    The people in charge of the country don’t want the economy to collapse on their watch. If the last stimulus is loosening lending standards, in the ways mentioned above, to keep the economy afloat, fed will do that. When I see these articles about racism in real estate, I believe that is to prime the public so they allow loosening lending standards for minorities or one specific race. That’s where it starts. After that they’ll keep making risky lending available to more and more groups until it gets all the way to the big white devil. Then housing will go up quickly and come crashing down as it did last cycle.

    This time I’m going on a shopping spree with my exit strategy as foreclosure. I’ll buy a big house in Fremont and a boat with my foreclosure money. Economic collapse creates wealthy people, so have a plan.

  43. 43
    IsErikRichYet says:

    There it is folks: Erik’s end game is to live in Fremont like someone who has been working in tech for 5 or so years. I for one am excited to buy one of his foreclosures just so I can put a sign on the front lawn that says “Some dude that read Rich Dad, Poor Dad and really liked it once owned this house. Once.”

  44. 44
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 43
    My end game is to stack chips without working hard or saving my earned income my whole life.

  45. 45
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 42 – How are you going to get foreclosure money? I don’t understand this strategy unless you can get more money than the house was purchased for.

  46. 46
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

  47. 47
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 46 – Hmm, Don’t Blame the Player, Blame the Game.

    If it worked, it worked.

    If they do no doc loans of any kind again – I’m going in on this too.

  48. 48
    Blurtman says:

    Why wouldn’t renters cut out the middle man, and buy their own homes under a relaxed lending standard scenario? If you don’t need a substantial down payment or sterling credit score, why put money in someone else’s pocket?

  49. 49
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Blurtman @ 48:

    Why wouldn’t renters cut out the middle man, and buy their own homes under a relaxed lending standard scenario? If you don’t need a substantial down payment or sterling credit score, why put money in someone else’s pocket?

    This one is easy to research. Judging from the posts on this site at the time in question, some wanted to maintain geographic flexibility or avoid maintenance work. But most were afraid of the debt; weren’t satisfied with the specific homes they could afford under the relaxed lending scenario; or were waiting to pick up homes for something like 20 cents on the dollar. A more moderate version of this last one worked out pretty well for the Tim, and a few others.

  50. 50
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 49
    Tim got a good deal and paid off his house. He’s definitely a smart guy and made a good play. He was smart enough to sense the bubble and bought at a time that made sense for his family.

    I merely piggy backed off Tim’s intelligence and bought a little after he bought and said he doesn’t think we are at the bottom yet, but we are close. Then I leveraged to buy more real estate.

  51. 51
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 48
    The hierarchy of wealth for poorest to wealthiest is like this…

    1. Renters
    2. Home owners
    3. Landlords

    People on this site argue this point because they are scared, but that’s just how it works and there are infinite examples of this. You get rich buying great investments, not saving money. I’ve been part of all 3 groups and I have by far the lowest stress and highest financial security in group 3 as a landlord.

  52. 52
    SeaH says:

    Well you have to sell the asset to make equity . Yup investments make people rich , not savings . You don’t think the scenarios of renters with stock market equity works ? … think nyc and SF

    RE: Erik @ 51

  53. 53
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 52
    You can sell and make equity. You can also pull money out of the property using a HELOC. When I remodel, I try to get a $100k HELOC after I rent the place out. I don’t pull the money out, I just like to have it ready just in case.

    I’m a real estate fan, not a fan of stock equity. I like to make money off my loans, not real money. I can get loans for millions, get someone else to pay the loan payment, and then collect all the appreciation. It’s called real estate investing.

  54. 54
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 53 – On average, when do you get to the point where you recover the purchase price plus remodel costs? I believe you buy at auction. What is the discount of the auction purchase price versus the theoretical price of the refurbed unit. And I assume that as prices continue to increase, so does this differential.

  55. 55
    Erik says:

    By Blurtman @ 54:

    RE: Erik @ 53 – On average, when do you get to the point where you recover the purchase price plus remodel costs? I believe you buy at auction. What is the discount of the auction purchase price versus the theoretical price of the refurbed unit. And I assume that as prices continue to increase, so does this differential.

    It all depends on how good of a deal I got at the auction. Every one I’ve ever done I’ve been able to recover the remodel cost plus any holding or purchasing cost that first year. My goal is to refinance after the remodel at 75% LTV and get all my expenses back. That happens sometimes. If I took out a HELOC with 85% LTV, I would recoup my investment every time, but like I said, I’m a low risk investor. I’m conservative and I like the 25% equity just in case the market crashes. I got a lot of capital selling that Alki condo, so I just use that money for remodel and buying and reinvest back into the business.

    Last place I bought in Rainier for $311k appraised for $580k after the remodel, but I had to spend some money on that one. I definitely increase my net worth every time and that’s my main goal. In a perfect world I’d get 75% LTV and pull all my remodel cost out so I can do it again. The Rainier place has 75% LTV, but I had to leave some money in the deal. No big problem as I’ve made that money back already with the forbearance since I was financially affected by Covid.

    I’ve gotten other deals where I spend under $10k on remodel, pull my remodel cost out and get 75% LTV. So really it all depends on the deal.

  56. 56
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 55 – Sounds like an exciting strategy. You are having third parties (renters) pay the loan that you have taken out to purchase an asset. And you are arbitraging the post-rehab versus pre-refab distress sale value of the assets.

    Effective candidate screening to ensure that renters will have the wherewithal to continue to pay your loan is important. Wise to make tats, unless MAGA, an automatic rule-out. And keeping a cushion to weather a downside in RE valuations, for which the magnitude for a given asset decreases with time in an appreciating market, is also key.

    Barring a WW depression, which will destroy the ability of your renters to pay your loans, as well as destroy asset value, you should do well. Needless to say, a WW depression will destroy just about every other asset class as well.

    The Sammamish admissions council may move your residency application to the B pool, but I must remind you that your past Everret residency is an anchor on the prospect of rising further. The committee asks that I pass along their thanks for your generous contributuon to the upcoming Sammamish debutante ball winter cotillion. Well done!

  57. 57
    Notme says:

    Get your tools ready
    Debutante cotillion
    Some fixer-uppers there

    -a high-society bubble haiku

  58. 58
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 56
    Tell the Samammish admissions council thank you for moving my application to the B pool. I’m making money off the sweaty backs of the less fortunate just like the Samammish residents do and I’m practicing my badminton skills. I feel like I’m getting closer to that highfalutin Samammish lifestyle I deserve.

  59. 59
    Mackenzie says:

    I’ve noticed that some landlords are significantly increasing the up-front money they require for rentals to insulate themselves against the possibility of deadbeats under the eviction moratoriums (e.g. asking for more months of pre-paid rent as a deposit). I saw one discussion on Nextdoor where a renter said a Kirkland landlord increased the deposit they needed for a single family home from something like $10,000 to $23,000.

    I wonder what effect widespread increases in up front rental deposits would have on the over-all market. It would likely lower the number of renters who could meet this higher deposit terms. I find it hard to see how landlords could demand BOTH higher deposits and higher prices particularly with unemployment growing. Of course, landlords could just decide it’s better to keep their rentals vacant.

  60. 60
    David says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

  61. 61
    David says:

    Still here in Florida:

    1) Multiple Houses Going Up in My Hood – One by a Brazilian Family
    2) State Fair is Ongoing
    3) Everything is OPEN
    4) Flip Flop Weather is Ongoing (I really underestimated how much flip-flops would become a staple)
    5) About to Pass a Law Making It LEGAL to Run Over ANTIFA/BLM Types Who Menace You (No Monetary Liability – Just Trophy Pics for Later Enjoyment and Reminiscing)
    6) Housing Values Expected to Rise Almost 10% Over the Next Year in My Area.

  62. 62
    Mackenzie says:

    By David @ 60:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

    Will landlord requirements for high up-front deposits lead to higher or lower rent prices?

  63. 63
    N says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59

    It’s probably also true that many of the recent rental laws the city has passed also contribute to landlords increasing their criteria – No criminal background check, requirement to lease to 1st qualified applicant etc
    (Note, I am note sure which of the many laws are still in place/survived the courts).

  64. 64
    Eastsider says:

    IMO, if a landlord requires high up-front deposits, he prioritizes good tenants over high rents.

    If you are a Seattle landlord, you need to get out of the rental business. From Tenants Union –

    Outside of Seattle, there is no limit on how much a landlord can charge for a deposit. Often landlords will ask for an extra deposit if you have less than perfect credit.

    In Seattle, landlords are required to charge no more than 1 month’s rent for security deposit and nonrefundable fees. Additionally, tenants are allowed up to a 6 month payment plan for the security deposit, any nonrefundable fees, and last month’s rent.

  65. 65
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 64
    Thank you for your opinion. It’s great to hear what a mutual fund investor that paid off their house in Redmond thinks about the Seattle rental market. Thanks for coaching us Seattle landlords. Sitting across the pond in your paid for house writing code is a great qualification to be a Seattle real estate pro on this website.

  66. 66
    David says:

    By Mackenzie @ 62:

    By David @ 60:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 59 – #ConsequencesOfVotingDemocrat

    Will landlord requirements for high up-front deposits lead to higher or lower rent prices?

    You would think maybe lower? – But then again maybe not – Jut apply the Deposit to the Backend for Rent.

    Bottom line – Renters are Paying Up A Lot more Money. Maybe a balloon payment lease?

  67. 67
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Erik @ 65 – Eastsider is good like that. He’s always very concerned about Seattle property owners and relentlessly attempts to get them to tamp down their expectations. Seattle property owners need not worry, because Eastsider does enough worrying for all of them!

  68. 68
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 65 – It’s not just my opinion. According to Zumper, studio and 1BR apartment rents in Seattle are currently at all time low since tracking began in Nov 2014. 2BR rent is currently at $2,052 compared to the high of $3,006 on July 2, 2016, and is on track to hit all time low in December. It is insane to pay more for an asset class with collapsing return and soaring expense. Business 101?

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  69. 69
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 68

    This is the second time you have referenced that Zumper graph and called the July2, 2016 the legitimate top of 2br rents. The spike is certainly an aberration and deserves an explaining footnote. Zumper is asleep at the wheel on the spike, and you continue to cherry pick it.
    Any data person worth their salt wold not let that stand without explanation, or at least a comment.

  70. 70
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 69

    Do you have a better source? According to a second source, Rent Jungle, 2BR rent in Seattle was $2,802 in June 2016. Seattle rent prices was spiking so high that the Seattle Times even wrote an article about it in July 2016.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-rents-now-growing-faster-than-in-any-other-us-city/

  71. 71
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 69

    Also, 1BR and 2BR rents in Bellevue hold up much better than in Seattle. It is now more expensive and desirable to live in Bellevue than in Seattle. Who would’ve thunk?

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/bellevue-wa

  72. 72
    don says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 70
    It’s a “man bites dog” story, absolutely because its anomalous. Of course the local fish wrap wrote on it.
    Where was the follow up when by what, August? , that rents reverted to trend or thereabouts.

    The question is what drew the spike? I’m guessing a data collection problem.

    You can have Bellevue, and the spiked-high 2br rent all to yourself :)

  73. 73
    northender says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 68
    In my world by green lake rents are definitely down, but not down to 2014 rents. A couple weeks ago I filled a 2 bedroom at 1950 after it sat empty for 5 weeks and several price drops. When I found out the last tenants would be clearing out I thought it would get 2200. It seemed like more folks than usual decided in October they were going to stay put for the winter. I was happy to get it occupied before the holidays.

  74. 74
    Blurtman says:

    Is the decrease in rent pricing due to an imbalance on the supply side, or on the demand side, or both? Even as far back as pre-COVID19 2018 there have been stories about an oversupply of apartments.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/free-amazon-echo-2-months-free-rent-2500-gift-cards-seattle-apartment-glut-gives-renters-freebies/

    While there are numerous anectdotal stories about people fleeing Seattle due to the city’s pro-crime, anti-police stance, and of course, COVID19, what does the data show?

    If there is indeed an over-supply, then one might expect builders to adjust and for supply to get more aligned to demand over time. And if people are fleeing Seattle due to COVID19 fears, one might expect this to change once vaccines are widely available.

    While it might be refreshing for WA state to institute a shoot the looters/run over the rioters law, as in FLA, WA state will probably be stuck with the coddle the criminals policy status quo, and so there may not be relief for those concerned about crime.

  75. 75
    Eastsider says:

    RE: northender @ 73 – The Zumper stat is for citywide. I assume apartment vacancy rate in Capitol Hill is currently at multi-year high.

    1BR rent in Seattle has declined 17% YoY compared to 2% drop in Bellevue. Seattle’s desirability has clearly taken a huge hit. It is self-inflicted.

  76. 76
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 73
    May I ask the reason the tenant left the 2br in North Seattle?

  77. 77
    northender says:

    RE: Erik @ 76
    With a toddler and a newborn there wasn’t enough space. They got tenants out of their Tacoma house and moved there.

  78. 78

    RE: northender @ 73

    What was the tenant who left paying? You said “I thought it would get$2,200”. More importantly, was the previous tenant paying more or less than what you just rented it for?

  79. 79
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 78
    I’ll offer up my data point. All my units have re-rented to the same tenants for the same rent as last year except for my 1br on the west Seattle side of the west Seattle bridge, which broke down making it a less desirable place to live. That rent went from $1650 to $1490 per month and it was on the market for 2 weeks I believe. Most people are staying put I think. Then again, my only property that has ever had turnover is that 1br. The rest may just be longterm tenants and I don’t think anyone re-rents to the same tenants at a lower price unless there was a major catastrophe.

  80. 80

    RE: Erik @ 79

    Agree. Just thought it was odd that he/she didn’t note a loss of rental price comparing the new tenant to the old tenant. If he’s getting an amount equal to what the previous tenant was paying, then he isn’t experiencing a loss at all. Why would he have to guess at what he might get if he already knew the rent price of the current tenant? That he wanted $2,200 but could only get the same price he was already getting, as example, is not a loss.

  81. 81

    RE: don @ 69

    Anytime anyone quotes numbers for “Seattle”, and especially now, it’s invalid anyway.

    As example in NYC, Manhattan rent prices are down 16% while Brooklyn prices are down 5%.

    Seattle’s a big place. When the variance is high as noted above for NYC as to the Boroughs, melding the two is of no value to anyone.

  82. 82
    don says:

    Five year trendline for aggregate rents in the msa looks a lot like a five year graph for SPY.

    A finer grained look would turn up city/neighborhood differences, but the trend favors rental housing investors.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA423SEHA

    Will the world start spinning backwards next week and Seattle be abandoned to the squirrels and raccoons?
    Place your bets.

  83. 83
    don says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 81
    Good point and agreed.

    For some posts in here, it has looked to me once in a while that the entire puget sound basin is “Seattle” according to some.

    White center vs Fremont vs north Capitol hill vs Queen Anne?
    Aggregate numbers are just a big mudhole.

    It’s hard to find reliable data.

  84. 84
    northender says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 80
    The previous folks had been around a couple years and were paying 2100. An identical unit with a lake view but finishes that aren’t as nice rented in July for 2350 with multiple applicants. There’s always reduced interest in the fall but this year it’s substantially lower than normal.

  85. 85
    Eastsider says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 81:

    Anytime anyone quotes numbers for “Seattle”, and especially now, it’s invalid anyway.

    When the numbers are bad, they are suddenly no good. Okay, I get it. Maybe you can apply for an apartment rental in Capital Hill and see how many free months rent they offer.

    Is C-S HPI still good?

  86. 86

    RE: northender @ 84

    Thank you. There’s often a variance of that much for position in the complex such as ground floor or upper floor or some other minor difference. Most landlords are renewing with no increase. So I think you did OK. Agree that June vs November could create that variance in and of itself.

  87. 87

    RE: Eastsider @ 85

    My statement is not a change in my long term position and no, I don’t change my opinion based on “good news” vs bad news, and I’m 99% sure you already know that. I have zero reason to do that.

  88. 88
    Market Psychologist says:

    Welp, I threw in the towel and bought a condo. Good luck to all!

  89. 89
    Erik says:

    RE: Market Psychologist @ 88
    Awesome! I think now is probably a good time to buy a condo as some areas are down. Would you share the area you bought?

    If you move out because you want something new or you need a house, I’d get a leasing agent you like and rent it. It’s a great low risk way to tip toe into real estate investing assuming you aren’t doing so already. Then in 10 years, sell it and pay off the new house and live mortgage free. That’s was my line of thinking until I got hooked as the process is repeatable.

  90. 90
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Eastsider has been very nervous about what he claims may be the death of cities as a result of a permanent flight to the suburbs (like the Eastside). I’ve tried to tell him not to worry, that there will always be people who enjoy city living and they will come back when covid is under control, but he persists. I know he’s just a concerned citizen, rather than being a troll with an agenda. Maybe this will soothe his anxiety just a bit:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/success/vaccine-real-estate-new-york-city/index.html

  91. 91
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 90
    Some people think if they keep pushing their opinions they can somehow control the market in which they have no control over. Remember Sfrz, Justme, and that agent that ran around to open houses in Woodinville counting the number of people attending to predict the future of Seattle housing prices? They all predicted a huge crash when prices were at the bottom in 2019. Like Eastsider, they thought by repeating the same mantra and posting fake data, they could control housing prices. They were all wrong and they are gone now. Eastsider will be wrong and we’ll add him to the previously mentioned list.

    Eastsider is a mutual fund investor that lives in Redmond and owns his house outright. There is nothing wrong with that ultra conservative approach, but those people usually do that because they don’t understand the markets and that is the case with Eastsider. He took the slow growth path and he now casts stones at people way ahead of him on the fast growth path.

  92. 92
    ruxpert says:

    How Bad/Good the 2021 Housing Crash will Be [Details].
    https://youtu.be/NvLRC4e5Res

  93. 93
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 92
    Kevin is my favorite. I’ve seen that video. The only tv I watch anymore is meetKevin. I dumped Boeing stock and bought Tesla right before Boeing boomed. I thought I made a big mistake and then S&P500 announced it will add Tesla and Tesla explodes.

    Kevin’s most recent video is a warning of a mutual fund bubble. Well, he doesn’t really make that conclusion, but big short predicted a mutual fund bubble in 2009 and now another fund manager is predicting one. I have a bad history with stocks, so don’t listen to me. I just thought it was timely since I’ve been sparring with mutual fund investors that think they basically eliminated their risk my investing in mutual funds. Not taking a stance here, but it is interesting.

  94. 94
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 93

    Roger that, Erik.
    Thanks for that info share.
    I am playing it safe currently, sitting in cash / RE, not sure what else I want to do beyond lazy leisure living.
    (bought gold mining fund in March, which doubled since; wishing I would have bought more. ;-)

  95. 95
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 94
    Cash/RE and gold is a great place to be right now I think. You are hedged against inflation and ready to jump on some deals when the RE market finally goes down.

  96. 96
    Bumble says:

    By Erik @ 46:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

    There was a time when a person would be too ashamed to share that kind of unethical plan for personal enrichment, even if it is perfectly legal. The people granting those home loans are entrepreneurs and business people with families to feed, just like you. The plan you described takes their money in bad faith, locks it up, uses it to collect tenant rents while the wheels of justice turn slowly (to protect families who borrow in good faith), and forces them to claw it back after legal fees, likely at a loss. There are plenty of ways to make money in real estate without screwing other people. The law sets a very low bar for personal behavior, we should all strive to exceed it.

  97. 97
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 96
    I’ll let this website know if I do it and I’ll even post the estimated happiness level of my family and I in the comment section before and after.

    Thank you for the feedback.

  98. 98
    Blurtman says:

    My brother-in-law is in the uper 2% wealth percentile. I asked him how he did it. He doesn’t invest in RE, per se, but only as shelter. Nonetheless, he pocketed around $400k on the sale of his Eastside home. He purchased a new place with cash, using this money as well as money from savings. No mortgage. He said he debated getting a mortgage, especially considering the low rates, and investing the cash in the market, but the psychological benefit of being debt free won out.

    He invests religiously in his 401k, and maxes out his employer’s match. He said he is in it for the long term, and did not cash out in the last Wall Street fraud financial meltdown. But beside that, he starts and sells businesses. He said that in addition to pocketing the purchase price of his company, the acquirer typically wants him to come along, to ease in the transition, and to stay, if he wants, at a very decent salary.

    He is from a very lower middle class background, and frankly is a self made man. I asked him if he thought there is still opprotunity in the USA for folks to rise above their economic situation, and he looked me in the eye, and said basically, that no one is going to give you anything, there are no guarantees. The best you can do is to try and when you get knocked down to get up, learn from the experience, and do it again, and again, but hopefully better. I can’t say that that is bad advice.

  99. 99
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98
    Tell your Rich Eastside brother in law to help out this low class Seattle landlord from north Everett. I need to scale but it’s hard to rewrite my North Everett mentality.

  100. 100
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98 – This is the way. If people would turn off HGTV and other RE porn sources, they would realize that RE is a small part of an overall strategy. The order:

    1. Emergency cash savings – at least six months, but preferably a year. Maybe more depending on your
    2. Debt – pay off the credit card debt, or adjust your lifestyle to get there.
    3. Car – Reliable transportation can be had for $5K. Cars have become incredibly reliable, so drive an old car purchased with cash.
    4. Max out all tax-deferred and post-tax retirement opportunities. Start this young.
    5. NOW consider home ownership, but weigh it against renting for your own local conditions. Use rent/buy calculators to properly account for opportunity cost. Don’t forget maintenance costs, which over long run are about 1 percent of purchase price per year. When you consider a home to buy, make sure you could hang onto it for several years if you lost your job.
    6. Invest in low-cost index funds, perhaps the Bogle 3-fund strategy to start.
    7. Invest in yourself. Accredited online learning opportunities are everywhere, and they are dirt cheap compared to traditional in-person university.
    8. Understand the Trinity Study and how it applies to retirement. Modify SWR to fit your risk tolerance. It’s simple math.

    I’m not the sharpest tack in the box, but following this approach allowed me to retire a few years ago in my early 40s. Now I am doing things I want while I still have physical health. Didn’t want to be one those bitter old dues driving around in an S-class, but with little time left on the clock.

  101. 101
    MA2 says:

    RE: Bumble @ 96
    Totally agree, Bumble. It’s an unethical strategy, and I am curious if this RE investor would appreciate it if one of his tenants used it on him. Imagine a tenant who signs a 12-month lease under Covid, has no intention to pay, and then lives rent-free off Erik for the next year due to the current restrictions on evictions.
    I am a landlord, and I would be pissed. Therefore, when I sign a closing document promising to pay, I pay.
    There is really no reason to lose your soul just because you like to buy real estate.

  102. 102
    MA2 says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100
    This is some very sound advice. I personally would change #4 and 5.
    4. Get your company match on 401k.
    5. Save for a down payment and buy a home in which the monthly PITI is less than or equal to current rental value of the property. Worse case scenario, you lose your job or have to move in a downturn, you should be able to rent it out and (mostly) cover the monthly payment.

    Beyond your company 401k match, it is a matter of preference whether you want to focus on stocks/bonds or real estate. I choose to do both.

  103. 103
    Blurtman says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100 – Ha, ha! My brother-in-law and my sister buy cars for transportation, only, and keep them until they have over 200k on them. I keep telling them they should buy Porsches to which they roll their eyes.

    I think the Trinity study has spawned many of the retirement calculators you can now find on line, with inputs that include yearly withdrawl rate. epected rate of inflation, expected return on assets, etc.

    One area that I may help my BIL in – his financial advisor has him invested in a large number of individual funds that in sum, are underperforming total stock and total bond funds. So a lower return for which he pays his advisor to boot. I think he may be coming around on this one.

  104. 104
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 100
    You announced you retired years ago and then about a year ago you stated you were living in trash hole Arlington Wa and working. You lie like a rug,

  105. 105
    Erik says:

    RE: MA2 @ 101
    I sometimes wake up in a cold sweat with dreams of the devil chasing me. I have to take my family on a European vacation with forbearance money to feel better.

  106. 106
    OA says:

    By wreckingbull @ 100:

    RE: Blurtman @ 98 – This is the way. If people would turn off HGTV and other RE porn sources, they would realize that RE is a small part of an overall strategy. The order:

    1. Emergency cash savings – at least six months, but preferably a year. Maybe more depending on your
    2. Debt – pay off the credit card debt, or adjust your lifestyle to get there.
    3. Car – Reliable transportation can be had for $5K. Cars have become incredibly reliable, so drive an old car purchased with cash.
    4. Max out all tax-deferred and post-tax retirement opportunities. Start this young.
    5. NOW consider home ownership, but weigh it against renting for your own local conditions. Use rent/buy calculators to properly account for opportunity cost. Don’t forget maintenance costs, which over long run are about 1 percent of purchase price per year. When you consider a home to buy, make sure you could hang onto it for several years if you lost your job.
    6. Invest in low-cost index funds, perhaps the Bogle 3-fund strategy to start.
    7. Invest in yourself. Accredited online learning opportunities are everywhere, and they are dirt cheap compared to traditional in-person university.
    8. Understand the Trinity Study and how it applies to retirement. Modify SWR to fit your risk tolerance. It’s simple math.

    I’m not the sharpest tack in the box, but following this approach allowed me to retire a few years ago in my early 40s. Now I am doing things I want while I still have physical health. Didn’t want to be one those bitter old dues driving around in an S-class, but with little time left on the clock.

    100% agreed! Good post!

  107. 107
    ruxpert says:

    This is a really odd time to be having a “housing boom”. We are in the middle of the worst public health crisis in 100 years, endless civil unrest has been ravaging many of our largest cities, and we are experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But even though more than 70 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits this year, home sales are absolutely rocking. How in the world is this possible? (Read More…)

    The Great Relocation:
    Americans Are Relocating By The Millions Because They Can Feel What Is Coming
    November 22, 2020 by Michael Snyder
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-great-relocation-americans-are-relocating-by-the-millions-because-they-can-feel-what-is-coming


    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/what-is-the-great-reset

  108. 108
    Satellite says:

    Regarding rents, the building I live in currently had prices drop by around 25% since a year ago. 1bdrs went for around $2100 are now $1500-1700 depending on floor and start date. I fully expect them to renew the lease at 2019 prices which will force my hand and move (even within the same building) to save $500/mo.

  109. 109
    Mackenzie says:

    A quick check of Redmond and Bellevue apartment rentals on Zillow for 11/25/2020 shows a lot of discounting going on. It’s striking to see several places offering two months free on a one year lease. That’s a pretty big discount over list prices. I guess the list prices don’t mean much anymore.

    – Sofi Somerset 13180 Newport Way, Bellevue, WA 98006 – 4 weeks free
    – Reflections by Windsor 6332 E Lake Sammamish Pkwy NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 1 month free
    – AVA Esterra Park 15301 NE Turing St, Redmond, WA 98052 – 1.5 months free
    – Belcarra 10688 NE 10th St, Bellevue, WA 98004 – 15% off rent
    – Ellington at Bellevue 11200 NE 11th St, Bellevue, WA 98004 – 5% off rent
    – Palisades 13808 NE 12th St, Bellevue, WA 98005 – 10% off rent
    – Redmond Hill 6110 186th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 10% off rent
    – The Carter 7508 159th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free
    – The Bravern 688 110th Ave NE, Bellevue, WA 98004 – one month free
    – Hyde Square Apartments 2030 155th Pl NE, Bellevue, WA 98007 – six weeks free
    – The Triangle 16450 Redmond Way, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free
    – Heron Flats + Lofts 7662 159th Pl NE, Redmond, WA 98052 – 8 weeks free

  110. 110
    don says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 108
    Thanks for the work, Mackenzie.
    That puts some color on the data in contrast to broad brush aggregation sites that purport to be authoritative.

  111. 111
    Eastsider says:

    Apartment List November 2020 Seattle Rent Report –

    M/M Rent Growth -4.2%
    Y/Y Rent Growth -12.2%

    https://www.apartmentlist.com/wa/seattle#rent-report

  112. 112
    justsomedude12 says:

    LOL. Eastsider doesn’t like the fact that rents on the Eastside are down as well. That contradicts his narrative that Seattle is dead and everyone wants to live on the Eastside!

    Keep up your pro-Eastside crusade Eastsider! I’m sure your posts on here are convincing everyone that the Eastside is where they should be!

  113. 113
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 111
    Closed minded. Eastsider is here to boost his ego, not learn and grow.

  114. 114
    David says:

    On my waterfront block here in FL this week:

    2 x $1.8M houses under contract for construction.
    1 x $1.2M house across the street under contract for construction.

    This makes 7 houses on this one street brand new under construction now.

  115. 115
    David says:

    By Bumble @ 96:

    By Erik @ 46:

    RE: David @ 45
    Last recession, one investor on this site bought houses for zero down when they were giving out loans easily and rented the units out. He had close to zero money into the deal.

    Then when the great recession hit he kept the units rented for 5-7 years without making mortgage payments. In the end, the mortgage companies paid him $20k extra for each unit when they finally foreclosed on him. Every time he gathered enough cash from rental money to buy a house at the auction, he’d pay cash for a house. After the recession, he had a bunch of houses without a mortgage because of his strategy.

    Jealous people on this site tried to shame him and scare him into believing he was going to get sued. One of the people trying to scare and shame him paid cash for a home is 2007, hahaha! We learned the reason one man was trying to hurt the successful man was because he was jealous because he made a really bad decision while the successful man made a really good decision. This site was a real hoot back then and I had a lot of fun on here.

    The smart successful man just told the haters to get screwed and started buying commercial real estate and started businesses. The successful man is a true business genius and I wish he was back on this site, but he got tired of the jealous people bringing him down.

    There was a time when a person would be too ashamed to share that kind of unethical plan for personal enrichment, even if it is perfectly legal. The people granting those home loans are entrepreneurs and business people with families to feed, just like you. The plan you described takes their money in bad faith, locks it up, uses it to collect tenant rents while the wheels of justice turn slowly (to protect families who borrow in good faith), and forces them to claw it back after legal fees, likely at a loss. There are plenty of ways to make money in real estate without screwing other people. The law sets a very low bar for personal behavior, we should all strive to exceed it.

    Hmm:

    1) Every contract has a covenant of good faith and fair dealing. (-1 for Erik)
    2) If banks are lending money to Erik and somehow the whole world blows up, Erik gets to implement his plan.
    3) The plan is a false hope if the national economy doesn’t blow up like in the Obama depression.

  116. 116
    Eastsider says:

    According to Zumper, Bellevue 1BR rent is currently down 5% YoY. (A week ago, it was down 2% YoY.)

    1BR and 2BR rents in Seattle are at their lowest level since Zumper started tracking in 2014.

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  117. 117
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 114
    Do you think we’ll see another crash like last time in the next 5 years?

  118. 118
    Erik says:

    RE: MA2 @ 102
    I think you are a mutual fund investor posing as a landlord. Owning a portfolio of rentals is a business and in business, you make decisions that are best for your business. Either that or you are green and don’t understand investing in real estate yet.

  119. 119
    Voight-kampff says:

    Eric,

    I’m rooting for you, and I’ve got no problem with sticking it to the banks, but food for thought. In many states it’s not illegal to leave your baby unattended in a car, or to Marry your cousin.
    There is nothing illegal about cutting in line, or snapping to get your servers attention, or lying to your friends. But these are not good things. I guess what I’m saying is, the world is what we make it. All that said, I’m rooting for you and I hope you get what you’re looking for. Happy thanksgiving!

  120. 120
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 118
    Happy thanksgiving and you are one of my favorite commenters. I think your condo purchase contract flip idea was genius and I’d like to try that too sometime. This is just another idea and I will probably never do it, just trolling for debate I suppose.

  121. 121
    David says:

    By Erik @ 116:

    RE: David @ 114
    Do you think we’ll see another crash like last time in the next 5 years?

    I really am not sure what is happening in the mortgage market so it is hard to know whether a serious housing crash is coming. New SF housing starts are still below 1M units a year (less than in 1959).

    My guess is that there will not be a major housing crash for along time. Regionally perhaps it might if a major industry tanks.

    Course, Biden is likely to empower China so everything is up in the air if China ever gets their economy to nose past us. If China were to replace the US Dollar we are screwed and housing will free fall.

    Looks like we are going to have a tired, doddering idiot as President who won’t have the energy or talent to do anything but what he has done in the past.

  122. 122
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 120
    I agree, Joe Biden will make America a weaker country. That doesn’t mean you can’t make money. George W Bush and Barak Obama were in my opinion, 2 of the worst presidents this country has ever had. I know a lot of people that made a lot of money foreclosing and scooping up foreclosures during their presidency. It’s just a different game, but you can still make a lot of money at.

  123. 123
    ruxpert says:

    A Lake View Residence By Christie’s International Real Estate Seattle
    https://www.hauteresidence.com/lake-view-residence-christies-international-real-estate-seattle/
    ===

    Cali Mansion Once Listed For $100 Million Sells For “Only” $48.4 Million
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/cali-mansion-once-listed-100-million-sells-only-484-million

  124. 124
    ruxpert says:

    Talking Housing & Real Estate Investing with Meet Kevin!
    https://youtu.be/Myn9KIBjtCk

  125. 125
    northender says:

    Here’s some interesting history of asking rents for a 2 bedroom condo in downtown Kirkland on zillow. It went for 1800 pretty quickly in 2016. There must have been strong interest when it was listed at 1800 in 2017 because the price went up to 2000 after a couple days and it rented in less than 2 weeks. Then this past August it was listed at 2400 but that didn’t work so rent has been dropping. It was delisted for a month and just relisted for 1850, most likely to reset zillow’s “days listed” counter so it looks like a fresh listing to casual lookers. So at least for this condo, rent has dropped to what it was in 2016.

    11/23/2020 Listed for rent $1,850 (-11.9%)
    Source: Onerent, Inc.
    10/20/2020 Listing removed $2,099
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    9/24/2020 Price change $2,099 (-4.6%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    9/4/2020 Price change $2,200 (-8.3%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    8/12/2020 Listed for rent $2,400 (+20%)
    Source: Zillow Rental Network Premium
    2/14/2017 Listing removed $2,000
    Source: OneRent
    2/2/2017 Price change $2,000 (+11.1%)
    Source: OneRent
    1/30/2017 Listed for rent $1,800
    Source: OneRent
    3/23/2016 Listing removed $1,800
    Source: OneRent
    3/14/2016 Listed for rent $1,800
    Source: Zillow Rental Manager
    2/20/2014 Sold $315,500

  126. 126

    RE: Erik @ 121
    Just Stopped By to say Happy Thanksgiving Weekend!

    I’m blogging on news outlets that get millions of hits unlike Seattle Bubble [what does it have? 5 different commenters now?], thanks Tim for giving me the incentive to greener pastures from this extinct website…

    Don’t waste your time on this dead website folks….its a joke.

  127. 127
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 125

    SWE, please share links of ‘outlet’s you alluded to.
    Thanks

  128. 128
    ruxpert says:

    Squint long enough at the cranes poking through Seattle’s skyline these days and they may start to resemble middle fingers. Rising between hotels and office buildings that have stood empty for months, new developments have seemed like brazen, even reckless, projections of normalcy amid our stay-home state. Of course, some of these projects were well underway by the time Covid-19 began spreading in their shadows; it’s difficult to pull the plug from 40 stories up. But more nascent construction raises the question: Should builders be this optimistic about downtown’s future?

    What’s the State of Commercial Real Estate in Seattle?
    Where you’re reading this from might offer a clue short-term. But it might obscure the long view.
    By Benjamin Cassidy 11/25/2020
    https://www.seattlemet.com/home-and-real-estate/2020/11/what-s-the-state-of-commercial-real-estate-in-seattle

  129. 129
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 127 – The closing paragraphs from this article, summing up the thoughts:

    “Hatcher isn’t down on Seattle’s long-term prospects, though. Like many realtors, he expects workers to come back and an urban “renaissance” to take root. “This is my fourth recession in the industry. The bigger cities with the real high rents get hurt first, but they’re always the first to bounce back. This isn’t going to be any different. Most companies want to be where their employees are. And most of the employees want to be in downtown, young employees out of college want to be in downtown settings.”

    The Colliers report echoes that sentiment. “It would be foolish to write off Puget Sound’s pre-eminent skyline market,” it concludes. “Companies will continue to want access to University of Washington’s steady stream of talent and the prestige that comes with occupying trophy office towers.”

    Or, as some of them once were, middle fingers.”

  130. 130
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 124
    Us 1 and 2br condo owners are getting pounded right now. Anyone losing money due to the pandemic should be taking mortgage forbearance for a year. Did rents decrease due to Covid? Yes! So take the darn forbearance.

    I’m looking to go condo shopping in Seattle and Kirkland in 2021 and probably 2022. Back up the rental truck while prices are low. Sell some when prices are high. It’s really that simple folks. I want 2br condos as they are so easy and they stay rented. Houses are still going up, so hang onto those and look to sell 2024 if prices are still up. Use the profits to pay off the condos. It’s just a shell game.

  131. 131
    Seah says:

    How big a drop do you think will occur for condos ?
    RE: Erik @ 129

  132. 132
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 125
    Happy Thanksgiving SWE! My wife had a little girl 11/19, so we have been busy with that.

    I like Tim. Without Tim I wouldn’t have known when to buy and I wouldn’t have met Ardell and Ray Pepper who have both helped me out investing real estate. Tim helped me make the bottom call last bubble that set me up for success. I will not speak negatively of Tim as I greatly appreciate his data and site.

    I’m glad to hear you are having success on some other sites. I’m guessing the other sites are a better fit as this site is specifically about Seattle real estate and you have a larger scope. Enjoy discovering the World Wide Web. You have momentum now, keep blogging!

  133. 133
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 128

    Roger that.
    I’ll try to find something to counter that, so to make the conversation more interesting. ;-)

  134. 134
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 131:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 125
    Happy Thanksgiving SWE! My wife had a little girl 11/19, so we have been busy with that.

    I like Tim. Without Tim I wouldn’t have known when to buy and I wouldn’t have met Ardell and Ray Pepper who have both helped me out investing real estate. Tim helped me make the bottom call last bubble that set me up for success. I will not speak negatively of Tim as I greatly appreciate his data and site.

    I’m glad to hear you are having success on some other sites. I’m guessing the other sites are a better fit as this site is specifically about Seattle real estate and you have a larger scope. Enjoy discovering the World Wide Web. You have momentum now, keep blogging!

    No way! My wife and I also had a baby girl born on 11/19 this year. What a coincidence!

    Congrats!

  135. 135

    RE: Erik @ 131

    Congratulation Erik:

    I like Tim too…he made me switch to my own website, its getting 10 hits a day now, its hits are growing exponentially. No complaints about mixing politics/economics/communications/overpopulation philosophies/science/math with predictions now from comments. I have a happy audience all over the world now…LOL

    He had a very good real estate tracking graphing system he still uses. Its weakness is tracking the rest of the huge foreclosure listing totals, which it omits. Its not Tim’s fault at all IMO, its like the U3 unemployment rate; a number that doesn’t match the U6 unemployment rate at all….we use the change to monitor.

    Its OK to have different opinions and different math methods….its just not accurate IMO anymore.

    Girls cost a lot more than boys to raise Erik, dig deep…LOL

  136. 136
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 131 – Congrats, Erik, on the new addition! I have just returned from the future, and you your multi-million dollar business enterprise has turned your daughter into an anti-American system destroying trustafarian. Look at what Buffet has done with his offspring – pay for their education, but they earn their own way. Anyway, have to pop back to help President Ivanka. Remember the future!

  137. 137
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 128
    I got a Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering from UW online. I did it while fighting people on Seattle Bubble and remodeling my first condo in Kirkland. I lived a stressful life and I’m enjoying some of the fruits of my labor now.

    The point is that you can get a very strong degree at UW and not show up to campus anymore. I visited my graduate advisor occasionally in person because he’s connected at my company and I went to the graduation to network.

  138. 138
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 130
    Really hard to say. I’ll tell you what I plan to do. I plan to buy a house in Metairie LA next year to live in after my mortgage forbearance ends. Then I’ll go shopping for Seattle condos probably in 2022. I want 2br condos in downtown that are close to cash flowing.

    The specifics are hard to predict. If prices plummet, the Seattle rental market will likely survive just fine.

  139. 139
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 133
    Haha! Congratulations to you as well. That is a crazy coincidence. We are bonded for life. 3:35pm CST.

    I talked the wife into driving into the hospital and we made it to the hospital just in time to deliver. My daughter seems very healthy like my son and I’m thankful for that. Now I just gotta get them started young investing in real estate and they’ll be set ;)

  140. 140
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 134
    I’ve heard that, so I need to buy more Seattle real estate now so in 10 years I can have a substantial passive income stream. Feed the kids off the passive rental income. Vacation off earned income.

  141. 141
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 135
    Thank you. I’ve lived in a construction zone most my adult life and I don’t plan to stop. I’ll lay the drywall mud extra thick and make these kids sand it so I don’t raise entitled whimps. My remodel crew is growing. You earn your spot at the dinner table in my house.

  142. 142
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 137:

    If prices plummet, the Seattle rental market will likely survive just fine.

    Among big cities, Seattle saw the second largest rent decrease since the start of the pandemic, dropping 19.1% since March. – Seattle PI

    Some landlords are going to have cashflow problems.

    https://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/slideshow/seattle-rents-down-20-percent-since-start-pandemic-213624.php

  143. 143
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 141
    Right, there’s a buying opportunity for downtown 1 and 2br condos in Seattle right now. All the landlords I know have hundreds of thousands of dollars socked away and as I’ve explained can tolerate a few thousand dollars negative cash flow. It’s really not a big deal, I promise. Buy now for $500k, take a cash flow loss for a few years, and sell when values double. I’ve made a lot of money doing that exact process.

    You want to sell real estate when prices are going up. Why? Seattle is a longterm bull market and I would call this buying the dip. You are either really dumb or really closed minded. You choose.

  144. 144
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 141
    Sorry, my previous comment was mean spirited. I get frustrated because I keep telling you the same thing and you never learn. Puget Sound landlords that have been at it a few years generally have a lot of money because even last year prices went up 10% or more. If you have $2M in real estate and prices go up 10%, you increase your net worth $200k. That’s happened like 8 out of the last 10 years in Puget sound, so landlords are wealthy in general.

    Biden is going to print tons of money driving up real estate prices even further. You paid off your single family home because you are scared to invest in real estate. Just because you are too scared to make good financial decisions doesn’t make it a bad investment.

  145. 145
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 143 – Yes, if you have held a rental property for over 5 years, you are doing great. BUT if you bought a rental property in the last 3 years, you are in deep trouble when your cash flow stays negative and gets worse.

  146. 146
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 144
    I’ve purchased 5 rentals in the past 3 years. Values are up an average of 50% and cash flow is pretty close to even. My net worth went up probably over $500k off those properties alone and you are concerned about the $5k lost in cash flow. I’m just saying, you are focusing on some small detail when in the big picture, if you bought smart in the past 3 years, you are probably way up.

  147. 147
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 145

    According to Redfin, Seattle condo median sale price went from $350k in Oct 2017 to $408K in Oct 2020, a 5.2% annual increase. In your situation, you bought TLC units and improved them. Many flippers lose their shirts when market turns, especially when they have neg cashflow. And we are due for a correction.

    https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/

  148. 148
    ruxpert says:

    The New Untouchables
    Seattle policymakers want to provide the city’s underclass with blanket immunity for misdemeanor crime.
    https://christopherrufo.com/the-new-untouchables/

  149. 149
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 146
    I bought houses too, not all condos, sheesh! Everyone has me pegged as the condo kid. Start out investing in condos and you are forever labeled the condo kid.

    Because I bought properties under value and repaired then to have a substantial equity position, I’m a flippper? I call buying a wedge smart investing. Pulling cash invested out and having a substantial equity position makes my investments more safe and not less. It’s more risky to buy market value than to buy under value with 25% equity.

    A downturn is always coming. Next year in 2021, prices will go up over 10% I’m sure because inventory is so low. Last time inventory was this low, we had a massive price boom. I’m sure real estate prices will go up next year and likely the following few years. If lending requirements loosen and and prices go crazy, I’m selling a few properties in transitional areas because a bust is coming. Sell of the properties in transitional areas and own without a mortgage in the core areas. I think we have at least a few years of price appreciation before this thing blows and I plan to catch that free money so I have a real estate income stream next recession.

    Once I have a passive income stream from Seattle real estate, I’d argue that my risk is lower than you mutual fund investors with paid off homes, so there. :P

  150. 150
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 130
    I had to think about this one a little, but here is my guess when to buy. I don’t have any idea how much values will decrease, but here is how I’d time it…

    Here is a chart below:
    Year |December 5th Condo inventory | direction of prices
    2007 | 3200 | down
    2008 | 3700 | down
    2009 | 3500 | down
    2010 | 3400 | down
    2011 | 2500 | down
    2012 | 1100 | up
    2013 | 900 | up
    2014 | 800 | up
    2015 | 500 | up
    2016 | 400 | up
    2017 | 300 | up
    2018 | 1000 | up
    2019 | 700 | up
    2020 1200 | down

    Condos in king county go down in value when inventory above 1100 and we are at 1200 looking at the inventory link below Tim’s post. I’d say wait until condos reach their max inventory since inventory is going up, and then sit back and wait for inventory to go down approaching 1100 before buying. Based on the numbers above let inventory to reach a maximum and start heading down. Then buy around the time inventory is around 1100.

  151. 151
    ruxpert says:

    Thanks to Lockdowns, American Big Cities May Not Be Worth the Trouble Anymore
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/12/no_author/thanks-to-lockdowns-american-big-cities-may-not-be-worth-the-trouble-anymore/

    Restaurant Owner Exposes LA Mayor in Video: ‘I’m Losing Everything’
    https://needtoknow.news/2020/12/restaurant-owner-exposes-la-mayor-in-video-im-losing-everything/

  152. 152
    Erik says:

    Hey Tim, it appears the king county condo log does not match what is posted on your site. I think the link is not updating.

    I saw it because I’m checking back to see when there are more condos for sale than houses in king county.

  153. 153
    lk cf says:

    J, Erik, I hope things will work out for you! I really do! For the sake of your kids and family. I lived through so many booms and busts, I can’t even remember, and the attitude was always the same. As my dad told me( and he saw it first hand), the graves of Stalingrad are packed with optimists.

  154. 154

    RE: Erik @ 151

    Actual CONDO LOG Listings:

    300+ alone are shown on this Redfin URL Erik. Use this website instead.

    Tim’s charts omit MASS foreclosures too IMO

  155. 155

    RE: softwarengineer @ 152

    Hi SWE! Happy Holidays if I don’t “see” you before then.

    I’m seeing 1,182 “condos” for sale, but that would include 99 townhomes that are legally disignated as condos.

    482 of those 1,182 are one bedroom or less
    569 are two bedroom
    131 are 3+ bedrooms and 61 of those 99 townhomes are in this category

    184 of the 1,182 are $300,000 or less as to asking price
    416 are $301,000 to $500,000
    253 are $501,000 to $700,000
    148 are $700,000 to $1,000
    181 are over a million dollars.

    Just showing that because saying 1,182 as if all “condos” are the same doesn’t make much sense. If someone is looking for an average condo because they can’t afford a single family home, the number available is not particularly high in the area where they are looking and at the price they can afford. There are more than there are single family houses, but not a huge glut.

    Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, published or verified by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  156. 156
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 152
    I’ll checkout the Redfin site, thanks for the tip.

  157. 157
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 153
    When’s the glut coming?

  158. 158
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 155

    When evictions become legal again.

  159. 159
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 156
    I am interested in a glut in the more expensive areas like Seattle and the Eastside. When the moratorium lifts in the more desirable areas, landlords will kick tenants out and those tenants will move to cheaper areas like Everett and Tacoma and degrade those cities further than they already are if that’s even possible. I hope inventory goes up and prices go down in Seattle so I can get myself some cash flow condos in Seattle.

    This kid is pretty smart and I believe he’s right:
    https://youtu.be/zDzDHdge6JQ

  160. 160
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 157

    I was looking at multi-family a few days ago with none on the Eastside and most in Seattle and Everett. I was looking for anything NOT those two, and it seems many feel the same as me based on inventory.

  161. 161
    Seah says:

    This is an interesting tip .
    What about condos do the prices crashes so quick ? RE: Erik @ 149

  162. 162
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 158
    Okay. Let me know if you find any deals in Seattle or the Eastside after July 2021 please. I’d take a multi family in Seattle, but not Everett.

    I highly recommend not owning in Everett. I had a rental there for years and it was a bad experience. People I know that rent in Everett regret it. I also lived there for 5 years. If you have a client that wants to talk to someone that has lived and had rentals in both Seattle and Everett, I can give them a first hand account. Seattle is full of people in tech. Everett is Navy people and drug addicts.

  163. 163
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 158
    An investor that had a couple rentals in Everett was telling me that Dino Rossi forces Everett to be poor because he gets more money for section 8 housing. I’m not sure if that’s true or not, but that’s what he said. He also owned some commercial property in Everett, which was successful for him. I think owning commercial property and renting to commercial renters is great in Everett. The people that rent in Everett are not the pool of people you want to rent to.

    Your client is better off renting out a studio in Seattle than a 4 plex in Everett. You can give them my number if they want to talk to someone with real first hand experience in both places. When I got out of Everett is when my life improved and i started having success in renting residential real estate. Take the negative cash flow of Seattle and get rich slow, trust me.

  164. 164
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 159
    Your tip ended with a question mark, so I’ll assume it’s a question and you mistyped.

    Condos crash quick because they are owned by people that are a couple paychecks away from foreclosure. When a recession hits and they lose their income or it gets reduced, they foreclose causing inventory to spike and prices to crash. That’s why condo prices crash hard and quick.

    Condos present some of the best buying opportunities. I have made a lot of money investing in condos because people freak out about buying anything that does not have a healthy HOA, which is a big mistake. I buy when an HOA is about to have a special assessment and or there are problems with the unit. I’ve made hundreds of thousands of dollars buying distressed units, fixing them, paying special assessments, and turning them around in a couple years. I started doing this in my 20’s and was nicknamed the condo kid.

    Condos are super easy to rent without much maintenance also. I want 5 2br condos in downtown Seattle without a mortgage so I can retire with zero care about money because they are a very safe and easy investment.

  165. 165
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 162 – Most HOAs disallow or severely restrict condo rentals. Do your homework before buying any condo or you will regret.

  166. 166
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 163
    Yeah, most condominiums require around owner occupancy. I own some that require around 78% owner occupancy and some that don’t have any restrictions on them at all. Before I buy, I always know if there is a rental restriction and if there is room for more rentals in the cap if there is a cap. I like when they have a cap that has not been met so I can still get in. A strict HOA is something I see as an asset.

    You are on the Eastside. Eastside units generally have a rental cap and I expect it over there. I started out with Eastside condos and chose to invest in Seattle instead because of the land scarcity. So far I probably would have done better on the Eastside at this point, but I’ve done well in Seattle too. This is Jenny Durkan’s last term and we just need one good mayor to clean house and Seattle could be a very beautiful and expensive city.

  167. 167
    Erik says:

    HiRE: Eastsider @ 163
    By the way, you should take a BECU HELOC out on your paid for house in Redmond now in case real estate goes on sale. Then buy a couple Kirkland condos for cheap and cash flow until you die. That’s what I’d do if I were you. It saddens me to hear of all your investment potential being squandered on a paid off house.

    If you own $10M in real estate and values go up just 10%, your net worth goes up $1M by doing absolutely nothing. Plus you don’t pay tax on rental income. Plus you depreciate over 27.5 years. Release some of that potential. Hire a property manager and a cpa and you basically do nothing.

  168. 168
    Mackenzie says:

    By Erik @ 165:

    HiRE: Eastsider @ 163 – buy a couple Kirkland condos for cheap and cash flow until you die

    Serious question… Are there actually condos in the Seattle region for sale today that would be cash flow positive if rented out (with all costs covered including taxes, maintenance, etc)?

  169. 169
    chip&dip says:

    RE: Erik @ 160 – Maybe Tim could give an assessment of living in Everett, as he lives there.

  170. 170
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 167
    I know Tim lives there and there is no assessment that will change my mind. I will not elaborate out of respect for Tim. I would forewarn investors that North Everett is a magnet for mental illness and they will regret investing there.

  171. 171
    Erik says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 166
    Serious answer… The last time I bought condos in Seattle was 2017. I stopped buying after that because I knew condo values were about to go down in value. Those (3) condos combined aren’t cash flow positive, but they are close. The (3) I got in 2017 are probably negative cash flow by $200/mo and I probably have $400k equity in those 3.

    My houses in Seattle aren’t positive cash flow positive either, but I have a lot of equity. Where do I get all the money to cover the extra expenses? I pulled around $400k profit in condos I bought and sold a few years later in Seattle, so I’m not really concerned if I lose a few hundred a month. After mortgage forbearance ends, I’ll probably refinance and they probably will cash flow or be negligible. Cash flow on single family and condos is for places like the Midwest where values don’t change much. I want to increase my net worth and I’m not too concerned about cash flow.

    When I sell half my real estate in Seattle after it doubles and I own half without a mortgage, I would like to get so much cash flow I don’t need a job any longer. In Seattle, you need to hold real estate and watch it go up in value. You should make $200k profit on a condo and it will ease your worries about losing a few hundred a month in cash flow. Negative cash flow is blown out of the water by people on this site that don’t understand real estate investing. Negative cash flow is the least of my worries. I plopped $20k in the investment account from my previous profits that pays my rental mortgages and haven’t thought about negative cash flow in years.

    ($20,000/$500)/12 years = 3.33 years of appreciation. So after 3 and a third years I’ll have to plop another $20k in there if I’m not cash flowing by then.

  172. 172
    Erik says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 166
    Eastsider owns his house in Redmond outright and I bet it’s worth at least a million. Eastsider could pull $750k out and pay cash for a couple decent condos in Kirkland if the market goes down and values sink. Those condos would cash flow and he could use that money to pay his mortgage and still be living for free. Only this way he has a larger investment and will make more when the market appreciates. That’s a very conservative way to invest more in real estate.

  173. 173
    Mackenzie says:

    By Erik @ 170:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 166
    Eastsider owns his house in Redmond outright and I bet it’s worth at least a million. Eastsider could pull $750k out and pay cash for a couple decent condos in Kirkland if the market goes down and values sink. Those condos would cash flow and he could use that money to pay his mortgage and still be living for free. Only this way he has a larger investment and will make more when the market appreciates. That’s a very conservative way to invest more in real estate.

    Ok. So it sounds like a Seattle area condo purchased today would only cash flow if there was a high amount of equity (i.e. very low mortgage). If a person had to borrow most of the money it’s not possible to have a positive cash flow on a condo in today’s market. As least that’s how I interpret what Erik said.

  174. 174
    Brianna says:

    RE: Erik @ 168

    That brings to mind, a friend of ours owned a duplex in Everett and I remember her telling me about the nightmare repairs they had to make after tenants, and how relieved they were when they sold it. I’ll keep your advice in mind- thank you!

  175. 175
    Erik says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 171
    Correct, I was babbling. I am unable to be cash flow positive on any rental condos I own. In fact my rentals break even at best. I just wanted to make the point it shouldn’t deter people from investing in condos because of the price appreciation.

  176. 176
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 172
    Everett houses are old and they need work, which is costly. My Everett rental was a nightmare. Tenants always have something wrong with them, that’s why the rent in Everett. I bought in Kirkland and then Seattle and my life has been much better and more lucrative. My tenants in Seattle are awesome and I appreciate their business.

    Boeing engineers that work in Everett, live in mukilteo, not Everett. Young talented engineers from MIT that work at Boeing are advised to live in Kirkland so they will stick around. I know north Everett well and I have lots of friends that live there. It’s a bad place. When I left, people that live there told me I can do better and to get out and don’t look back, so I did. I did go back to see friends from the area and it grosses me out every time I go there. Everett is marketed as an all American town with “old world charm.” I call it a “meth infested child predators town.”

    Last time I was there because I had to get gas. I foolishly left my wallet on top of the gas pump. I pulled out and immediately realized what happened so I went around the block and it was gone. Someone stole my cards and started buying stuff at Walmart within the hour. It was another reminder of how much I hate that area.

  177. 177
    guy says:

    my 2 cents .. the trend for entry to mid level tech people is Maple Valley single family homes right now… this is purely based on some near term contracts i have been tracking.. better value compared to bothell, kirkland, eastside and snoqualmie ridge

  178. 178
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 173:

    Correct, I was babbling. I am unable to be cash flow positive on any rental condos I own. In fact my rentals break even at best. I just wanted to make the point it shouldn’t deter people from investing in condos because of the price appreciation.

    Condo cash flow turned negative around mid decade, likely earlier in ‘desirable’ areas. The only thing that kept condo rental going was (speculative) price appreciation. That is no longer the case with free-falling rents.

    If Erik barely makes even buying TLC units and investing time and money updating them, it is definitely not a money making endeavor for mom and pop investors.

    I simply don’t see any reason to invest in condos except for shelter. Even then you will be better off renting financially.

    P.s. If you had invested in any stock market index (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) on April 1, your investment would have gained anywhere between 50%-80%, Yes, the stock market has been a better investment in the last 4 years than the hottest housing market in the country.

  179. 179
    Justme says:

    RE: Erik @ 169

    Wow. Erik now admitting (or is it “claiming”?) in 2020 that he thought in 2017 that condo prices were about to drop. All the while telling people to buy.

    This guy is quite the liar. For many years now he has been claiming publicly that prices would keep increasing until, what was it, 2023? Based on some nonsense cycle theory.

    Not surprised.

    I, on the other hand correctly predicted the 2018 downturn, in June 2017. I was off by 5 month. in predicting the time of the peak. The most accurate prediction ever made on Seattlebubble.

    Nobody could have imagined the recent Fed craziness and depravity, though. First in response to the repo panic in Sep 2019, and then the absolute insanity following the Mar 2020 pandemic panic. What a mess.

    Coming up: The usual d-bags in a tizzy and rampantly misrepresenting me. Don’t bother listening to their rubbish.

  180. 180
    Erik says:

    RE: Justme @ 176
    When prices went down a little in 2018 and it was time to buy, you told everyone not to buy. You screwed readers and then you hid because you were embarrassed you were so wrong. You are the single name that comes to mind when talking about the most wrong ever. You kept coming with fake data day after day when the market had gone down a little and then it boomed up and you hid like a coward.

    Condo investory was on the rise and it made sense values would level off or decline a little for a few years. Those few years are a great time to buy. I want (5) downtown 2br condos in 2021/2022/2023 before prices shoot back up again. Real estate is a long game. Then I’ll pay those off eventually with other real estate and retire.

  181. 181
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 175
    90% of rich people become rich with real estate. You took the slow, long and less lucrative approach. Don’t deter the real investors from success. You are a saver, and that’s fine. But know your place and own it.

  182. 182
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 178:

    90% of rich people become rich with real estate.

    This might be true in the good ol’ days. Nowadays young “retirees” in their 40s, 30s and even 20s(!) are not RE barons or trust fund babies. And there are many of them in the area. Perhaps you should learn to become one of them. Seems a lot easier ;)

  183. 183
    Eastsider says:

    Latest Zumper rent update –

    Seattle condos Studio -16% YoY, 1BR -20% YoY, 2BR -14% YoY. All time lows since data collection began in Nov 2014. 3BR -5% YoY, 4BR +6%(!) YoY.

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

  184. 184

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 153

    Happy Holidays to You TOO ARDELL!!

    The holidays are GRIM this year with Killer Flu, Santa Trump saved it for the immediate future with the MIRACLE 95% EFFECTIVE OPERATION WARPSPEED VACCINE today…we should ALL SMILE :-)

    Go to my own SWE website for more details on Trump’s OPERATION WARP SPEED’s Success.

  185. 185
    ModusPwnens says:

    Tim, can you just ban/silence software engineer? He’s constantly been using your blog as free hosting for his own political commentary and now he’s using your blog as free advertising for his own blog.

    Can you just ban this guy if he’s not able to keep it related to real estate?

  186. 186
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 179
    Yeah, do they program computers for cash and save their money in slow growth mutual funds like you?

  187. 187
    Bumble says:

    RE: Erik @ 182

    Silly argument. Obviously you are both kind of right. You can make great money in real estate and also in businesses (or stocks). My wife and I had less than nothing just 5 years ago. I remember reading Justme’s apocalyptic comments from my Seattle apartment and hoping he was right about impending doom because I didn’t see how we’d ever buy a house in Seattle without another crash. But things changed quickly. Our salaries kept growing each year. Suddenly we own two homes in the Seattle area (2018 and 2019). We also invested in stocks and buying shares in a small business. The homes grew in value. Plus, the real estate gives us a place to live. Real estate has been a great investment for our family so far. Our business investments have performed even better (but we don’t get to live inside our stocks or businesses). Its anyone’s guess each year whether the growth in our RE value with outstrip the growth in our stock/business investments. They have both been great. I’m just grateful that we have clawed our way up to a seat in the ownership class. Owning RE is great. Owning business shares is great. Which is better depends on the year and the holdings. Buy both.

  188. 188
    Blurtman says:

    Yes, diversifying is a good thing.

    So what could cause a drop in home prices? A decrease in demand relative to supply, to be sure.

    And what could cause a decrease in demand? A number of things, but an increase in the size of the monthly payment would be one.

    And what could cause an increase in the size of the monthly payment? An increase in mortgage interest rates.

    And what could cause an increase in mortgage interest rates? Actions undertaken by the Fed and market in response to inflation.

    So keep an eye on inflation. Asia is already in recovery mode. And the EU and US will be as well if all goes well with the vaccine roll-out. Already there are rumors of rising input prices as a result.

    Can interest rates increase? Horror!

  189. 189
    Jay says:

    Best places to invest in rentals?
    Wenatchee
    Ellensburg
    Monroe
    Cashmere
    Cle Elum

    These places seem to offer some cash flow and appreciation.

  190. 190
    Jay says:

    Seattle condos as rentals are currently a large gamble IMO… To many negative variables to contend with which isn’t fun when they don’t even cash flow… but def worth watching in case they keep dropping…..

  191. 191
    Justsomedude12 says:

    It’s very difficult to do, because it’s counter to human nature, but the best time to buy assets is when there’s a general lack of interest in them.

    Look back at a chart of the stock market over the past 20 years or so. The times when things seemed most dire were the best times to buy. For example people who stopped contributing in 2009 did exactly the wrong thing. That’s an extreme example, but just goes to show that human nature urges us to hold off on buying until things seem like they’re on the upswing, when in reality that’s when prices have already gone up and you’ve missed an opportunity. You think you can just jump back in when prices start to rise but in reality that’s never clear at the time, only in hindsight. You only realize a recovery is actually in place after prices have risen subtantially.

    Same with a real estate market, such as condos right now. This is an opportunity, and you won’t know you’ve missed it until it’s long gone.

  192. 192
    Eastsider says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 187:

    Same with a real estate market, such as condos right now. This is an opportunity, and you won’t know you’ve missed it until it’s long gone.

    There is no collapse in Seattle condo prices. Prices are still ‘gaining’ in face of collapsing rents. It will take a 20% price cut before condos are considered ‘bargains’. Even then, cash flow will remain negative.

  193. 193

    RE: Eastsider @ 188

    Cash flow is always negative at time of purchase for property worth buying. I’ve seen million dollar properties rent for $1,700 a month in my time because the land of it was worth a million dollars and the shack that rented for $1,700 was a tear down.

    Not this exact house, but one nearby.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2016-Ocean-Dr-Manhattan-Beach-CA-90266/250332321_zpid/

    Maybe this isn’t going to get the $14 Million they are asking. But none of the old houses (this one now new) on that strip ever had cash flow at time of purchase. Someone I know there who is a bit older than me bought one for $72,000 and never improved it and sometimes didn’t even bother to have a tenant in it. Just kept it vacant. Now the land of it is about $5 Million.

    When I lived and worked there and people started talking “cash flow”, we sent them to Compton. :)

    An exception would be a multi-unit building that needs a ton of expensive improvements due to years of deferred maintenance. Slum Lord type stuff.

    Worth noting…I just saw one with positive cash flow, but the listing often does not have ACTUAL rents but rather a rent price they think you should be able to get. Not sure why this is legal as the stated “rents” were double what they actually are. Watch out for the words “Proforma Rent”. Never assume the actual rents in the current leases will match what is stated, especially when the rent of all units are the same and a round number, like every one of them rents for $2,000 apiece. Exactly 2,000 each.

    In fact it is so uncommon that there is cash flow at time of sale, unless there is substantial deferred maintenance and building failure, that if you see one that claims to have cash flow, look even more closely as to why that could be true.

  194. 194
    Erik says:

    RE: Jay @ 186
    I have to agree that there are a gamble in the short term since condos have recently doubled or tripled in value in the past 8 years. Real estate aren’t stocks and over time they always come back. Established real estate investors that already have a few properties, cash in the bank, and equity should be buying condos when good deals come up. Brand new investors or people buying a condo to live in could see a drop in prices in the next few years. What’s more likely is that the fed will keep printing money and asset prices will go up while mortgages stay at the same dollar amount. I will wait for asset prices to double so I can sell a couple and own a couple outright. I’m a conservative low risk investor, but not so conservative I put my money on mutual funds only.

  195. 195
    N says:

    Re: Cash flow – interesting discussion. They are few and far between but almost all 2-4 unit properties I’ve seen lately seem to cash flow pretty good. Definitely not in SFH however.

  196. 196
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 191
    I never got into multi family because I can buy single family houses and condos and increase my net worth about $80k or more every purchase. Then as I keep them, they double in value and I sell them.

    I’ve had no incentive to leave the extremely lucrative market of single family rental investing in Seattle. Multi family seems more commonly appropriately priced because they are sold by investors. Single family is sold and foreclosed on by people that have hardships, so that’s where the opportunity is to help people and get a deal.

    I’m sure it’s very possible to get very wealthy in multi family, but I haven’t figured it out yet because single family is so easy. If someone wants to mentor me on multi family, I’m open!

  197. 197
  198. 198
    Eastsider says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 189:

    Cash flow is always negative at time of purchase for property worth buying. I’ve seen million dollar properties rent for $1,700 a month in my time because the land of it was worth a million dollars and the shack that rented for $1,700 was a tear down.

    1. No rental property investor will buy a teardown that is destined for (re)development. Builders(-to-be) are the ones scooping up these properties. They never “cash flow”, ever.

    2. Rental cash flow was positive a while back, e.g. 2009-2013, even in ‘desirable’ areas. Not so today, unfortunately.

  199. 199
    Eastsider says:

    Here is an interesting migration report by Webster Pacific/United Van Lines. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue has the 2nd highest increase in % outbound 2019 to 2020 among metro areas. We may start to lose population if the trend continues. (San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley is 1st; New York-Newark-Jersey City is 3rd.)

    https://websterpacific.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/The-Covid-19-Impact-on-USA-Moving-Webster-Pacific-and-United-Van-Lines.pdf

  200. 200
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 183
    That’s awesome, great job! Justme was dead wrong and didn’t know what he was talking about. Same with Sfrz and the agent taking attendance at open houses to judge the market. I bought a couple houses during the 2018/2019 dip as well. I’m glad you didn’t listen, it was like they were purposely trying to hurt people and that’s why it made me mad. I want to help people.

    I’d consider getting a good property manager and a CPA so you can focus on finding deals while they do the work. The more property you own, the more money you can make.

  201. 201
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 194
    I bought a condo in 2011 for $92k and sold it in 2013 for $233k. With those profits, I bought a another condo for $300k in 2015 that didn’t cash flow. I sold it for $630k in 2019.

    You don’t think I made a lot of money buying and selling real estate that doesn’t cash flow?

    I bought houses and condos in Seattle with some of the profits, but I need more. I have at least 25% equity in those houses and condos and lots of money left to invest since I bought low, fixed them up, and pulled the money back out. I have recaptured almost 100% of my capital and I want to buy a lot more. There is no velocity of money in throwing your money in a mutual fund savings account. In real estate you can own millions of dollars of it without locking up your investment capital. It’s like investing $10M in a mutual fund on margin and you get to keep all your money in a bank just in case. If your value goes down, you just have to wait longer to get rich.

  202. 202

    RE: N @ 191

    The ones I’ve checked say they cash flow on Redfin but when I get the actual leases the rents don’t match what is posted in the listing. If you see one, can you post it? Thanks!

  203. 203
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 197

    CS home price index Seattle
    01/2011 – 135.41
    01/2015 – 168.83
    01/2018 – 234.14
    01/2019 – 243.63
    09/2020 – 280.33

    Seattle home prices have been rising rapidly. Will it continue at this pace? I doubt it. There is no longer a net in-migration. And the trend nationwide is to move from large to midsize and smaller cities.

  204. 204
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 199
    I’m playing the long game and Seattle real estate is going to go up over the long term. You need to think less about cash flow and more about net worth when you buy. You can cash flow when you sell units to pay off other units when you want to retire. Cash flow is an exit strategy. When you buy, it’s all about net worth and controlling as much real estate as possible.

  205. 205
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 200

    As an investor, you should always be open to all opportunities. E.g. you should have bought stocks back in April. That was an easy bet. Really.

  206. 206
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 201
    I did buy stocks in April with the fund I use to invest in real estate so I could grow my capital. It’s not either real estate or stocks, it’s both. Really.

    I also put 20% plus company contributions in my 401k just in case. That’s my sure thing. It’s not one or the other. Stocks work really well to generate more capital for real estate, but real estate is the main goal as it has the strongest base and greatest potential.

  207. 207
    Jay says:

    Anyone have any input on Tacoma rental market. Seems to also be appreciating, together with lower property prices and higher cap rates than Seattle. I’m seeing SFRs that would appear to almost be cash flow neutral based on my research. That’s assuming you manage yourself and do some cosmetic upgrades.

    From a price growth perspective SFRs much better than condos or multi units if we are looking at a long term potential IMO…

  208. 208
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 201
    The one regret I do have is not having the vision or guts or smarts to pull an extra $300k out of my HELOCs to invest it into the stock market. I just invested the revolving investment money and should have done more. That was a mistake that won’t happen again.

  209. 209
    Erik says:

    RE: Jay @ 203
    Tacoma is not a bad place to invest and investors make money there. I like the Seattle-Eastside area for investing, but I think Tacoma is gonna go up in value too. I’ve lived in that city and it’s a rougher crowd. I like renting to low testosterone software programmers. Tacoma renters will be higher testosterone people in the military, construction, and carwash industry. I prefer renting to low testosterone people, but you should go for it and report back.

    I take the slow and very conservative approach. You could load up in Tacoma and get rich faster, it’s just not for me at this point.

  210. 210
    IsErikRichYet says:

    Now is the perfect time for one of Notme’s haikus. Please make a low testosterone renter haiku. Just this once. Please.

  211. 211
    Jason says:

    RE: Erik @ 205

    I agree with that analysis. However there seems to be tons of renter demand in these places so you can pick and choose. And these low testosterone programmers are starting to move around. I have a rental up near Wenatchee and took a Kirkland Tech renter wanting to get out of the rain. This is possible with more of these work from anywhere policies.

    Of course this can all change. Or not?

  212. 212
    Erik says:

    RE: Jason @ 207
    Do it Jason. I think you’ll have success in Tacoma. Please let us know how it goes.

    Maybe I’m a superstitious fool, but I like king county. I buy places i would like to live in and I wouldn’t want to live in Tacoma again, so I don’t buy there. I like Seattle because I think it’s under valued for a tech hub. I like the excitement of what could happen there.

  213. 213

    RE: Erik @ 208
    Yes Erik:

    One thing’s for certain….the old investment rules are out of date now. Visit my website listed below my comment for more “recent details MSM generally sweeps under the rug”….LOL

    I use UK MSM more now, like The US Sun; they have far less Conservative “American Establishment Style” free speech blocking in comments information made available to US voters and investors.

  214. 214

    RE: Jason @ 207
    Yes Jason, Keep an Open Mind, Its Your Money and Your Retirement Ahead

    Read a good “recent” book this Christmas by a good “reliable” author for more fact checking that’s not fake news. I discovered A. G. Riddle this month, in 2017 he wrote the PANDEMIC two book series….here’s an excerpt from “Genome” that totally reminds me of today’s investment climate and what influences it:

    “page 378″….”…The scenes made her realize how delicate the social fabric of the human race truly was. People’s confidence in government and police – the order of things -was the glue that held society together, And the glue was becoming unstuck. Once its gone, instilling that trust again will be very difficult. The damage being done might soon be irreparable…”

    Pandemic plagues have never had a vaccine in the history of mankind, even the last plague of Spanish Flu of 1918 lacked a vaccine. We’re talking 10,000 years of history folks…read that in Pandemic.

  215. 215
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By Erik @ 205:

    RE: Jay @ 203 – Tacoma renters will be higher testosterone people in the military, construction, and carwash industry.

    The “and carwash industry” part of this struck me as funny.

  216. 216
  217. 217
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 211
    I was admittedly smiling and laughing at my own joke on that one. Well, I can’t take full credit, let me explain…

    I was playing pool at that J-pub, a bar in Juanita with my ex-girlfriend from North Everett and these hoodlums were in there. These thug wannabes took our pool table when we stepped away briefly during our game and the ex said something like “We aren’t intimidated by men that work in the carwash industry!” They probably thought we were privileged Kirkland kids and didn’t know we were from North Everett. She yelled it right to them and i just busted up. I thought it was hilarious, so I use it whenever I can.

  218. 218
    wreckingbull says:

    In difficult and uncertain times like this, it is always comforting to have things which don’t change through the ages. SWE yelling at clouds from the blue couch and Erik self-fellating about his speculative condo empire. Happy Holidays and “Best Wishes from the Entire Biden Family!!”

  219. 219
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 209
    I don’t see your website listed below your comment.

    News is owned by lobbyists these days and both sides lie. I just watch financial investing advice from a trusted source.

  220. 220
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 176:

    RE:
    I, on the other hand correctly predicted the 2018 downturn, in June 2017. I was off by 5 month. in predicting the time of the peak. The most accurate prediction ever made on Seattlebubble.

    I have attached a link to Justme’s “Most accurate Prediction ever made on Seattlebubble.”

    But enough joking around…

    The best prediction on this site remains our hero The Tim buying in Spring 2011. Not only did he practically bottom tick the price, he also had roughly 4X as much inventory to choose from as current buyers. 8,000 active listings! Remember when Justme was cheering 4,000?

  221. 221
    chip&dip says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 210 – I thought you self-exiled. Don’t start again with your dribble.

  222. 222
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 214
    That was uncalled for and offensive. What do you gain by slamming people on this site?

    It was your choice to program computers and save your money in mutual funds your whole life. You chose not to invest and learn about investing. Trying to hurt others on the internet is not going to cure your sadness.

  223. 223
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 216
    Tim did good on that one for sure.

  224. 224
    Bumble says:

    By chip&dip @ 217:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 210 – I thought you self-exiled.

    You think he’s gone? He’s not gone. That’s the whole point! He’s never gone!

    – Richard Dreyfus in “What About Bob“

  225. 225
  226. 226

    SWE Smiles and directs truth seekers to the website not listed in SB comments after-all, thanks for the tip Erik.

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

    Join me their, friends of SWE…lots of ’em BTW.

  227. 227

    RE: chip&dip @ 217
    Get Off Tim’s Website Chip

    Print your far left allegations on your own website; why Tim lets you do it here is beyond me. BTW, ya can comment extremist progressive thought on my website comments and I allow it. We think from opposite free speech paradymes. Get it?

  228. 228
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 222
    I’ll check it out SWE. I would like to think of myself as a truth seeker, but admittedly, I’m more of a money grubber. I want to grab as much money as humanly possible so I don’t have to work as hard and still provide the necessary support to raise a happy family. I don’t want to have to depend on earned income to live.

  229. 229
    IsErikRichYet says:

    There you go, Erik. Let it out. Let it all out. It’s ok. This is a safe place.

    But seriously on the low you need to get your cot damn shit together. The way you throw out numbers is like taxes and operating costs don’t exist.

    Also, mutual funds? What year is it?!

  230. 230
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 225
    Honestly, I’m having a little trouble understanding what you are saying. I’ll do my best to answer.

    When I said what I made on a condo, I subtract remodel, holding costs, and whatever costs are involved.

    The last sentence was real confusing and I assume you are drunk or high. Mutual funds are like S&P500 or Russel 2000. Those are what people that don’t understand the market invest in because the provide a modest return that makes them feel more safe.

    One thing is you never replied to a specific comment and I made, so I’m kinda guessing here since I made a lot of comments. Sober up and come on back with coherent sentences if you wanna talk real estate.

  231. 231
    ruxpert says:

    “It’s chart time Mr. Scrooge!”
    Consuming housing-related data via charts is like consuming too much chocolate via music. Wait for it…
    https://www.millersamuel.com/note/december-18-2020/

  232. 232
    IsErikRichYet says:

    RE: Erik @ 226

    Mutual Funds are for people who like paying high fees for dubious claims of outperforming the market. The S&P 500 is an Index fund, but this is a real estate website and I wouldn’t expect a flipper to know the difference. Since you talk about being open to coaching here’s a tip: You should the understand the details of the investments you repeatedly crap on. I’d also recommending re-reading your last paragraph and then decide which one of us needs to sober up.

    Have fun living out your Machiavellian wet dream of taking mortgage forbearance when it isn’t necessary. I’m sure that won’t catch up to you ever. Tata for now.

  233. 233
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 228
    I offended an index fund “investor” I see. You can keep working and save your money your entire life if you want. You’ll probably have enough to retire when you are too old to enjoy being retired. That’s not what real investors do. That’s what the herd has been taught to do. I mean, it’s your choice. I’m just trying to get people like you to pull your head out of your a$$ and start investing.

    On the same note, thanks for the correction. I meant “low testosterone beta index* fund investors.”

  234. 234
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 228
    And for your information Mr. IsErikRichYet, I have been affected by Covid. I got a layoff notice and had to move out of state to keep food on the table for my poor pregnant wife and son.

    Worst of it all is I can’t keep consistently buying real estate that I can fix up for 75% LTV that I can pull all the money back out of since I no longer live near Seattle. Covid has potentially cost me millions. Seattle is a gold mine and if you live in or near and you are investing in mutual funds, I mean index funds, you need to reassess your strategy.

  235. 235
    Erik says:

    Here’s what I’d do on this one if I was a mobile and adventurous person in the Seattle area.

    Buy this, it looks cheap. Not over 1000 sq. ft, but a 2br near magnuson park in Seattle for $335k. It seems like prices will probably go up in the next few years, but nobody is certain. Jay Powell said we are at the bottom of a long bull market.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5844-NE-75th-St-D205-Seattle-WA-98115/49045640_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

    Make sure you can rent it, so if you need to or plan to, you can. If 2br condo prices in Seattle go down, you can probably rent to someone pretty easy until the market does go up.

    Tear those stupid things off the walls where you hang storage. Get stainless steel appliances. Tile the bath surrounds with rectangular subway tiles. Center the light over the mirror in the bathroom. Replace the kitchen facet with a high end looking generic one from Amazon. Tear out baseboards and put in King electric PAW wall heaters in their place with the HOA’s approval and a licensed electrician to buy off the work. Replace the floor with beautiful vinyl plank after getting written approval from the HOA. Live in your beautiful fixed up condo in a sweet spot near Magnuson Park in Seattle. Stay 2 years, rent it out, and jump on the next deal. Sell the new rental condo after 2 years so you don’t even have to pay capital gains tax. Chances are you’ll make over $100k after expenses,

    That’s how you get momentum and get the ball rolling. I imagine $335k is way under most code monkeys budget. There’s no risk and you get a rental in a prime area that will appreciate and get paid down the rest of your life. If you are super lazy like me, get a property manager and a cpa and you basically do nothing.

  236. 236
    Erik says:

    Entire top floor to yourself on first hill:

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1200-Boylston-Ave-APT-1000-Seattle-WA-98101/48944072_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

    Downtown Seattle 1 and 2br condos have definitely gone down in price. I’d buy if I were in that position. I’d probably do the 2br because they rent longer. Rent that one forever if the HOA allows it.

  237. 237
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 232 – You should start a newsletter. Extra side income? lol.

  238. 238
    seah says:

    Do you think it will go down more ?
    Seattle just dragged the eviction ban to mid March .
    Has anyone had experience with having the seller pay the buyer’s pmi ?

    RE: Erik @ 232RE: Erik @ 231

  239. 239
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 233
    I come on here and comment because it’s like forcing people to read my comments. Nobody would pay me.

  240. 240
    Eastsider says:

    By seah @ 234:

    Seattle just dragged the eviction ban to mid March .

    ^^^ THIS ^^^

  241. 241
    Erik says:

    RE: seah @ 234
    Sure, condo prices could go down more, but they could go up too. I would guess they are artificially down because of COVID and it’s a good time to buy.

    Isn’t PMI, private mortgage insurance, which a buyer with an fha mortgage pays monthly because they don’t have a big enough down payment? What does that have to do with the seller?

  242. 242

    RE: Erik @ 230

    Thank God Ya Got a Replacement Job From the Seattle Layoffs, Quick too

    Erik impresses me with his “comment style” courage, child care and honesty during joblessness and finds a long-term plan that can possibly fix the Seattle Layoff. Why is that bad?

    Very few commenters on this blog have that honesty level BTW IMO. Most are too haughty to admit it. I may not do it Erik’s way, but why is it good if we all invest like identical clones? Good luck Erik….I think you’ll win long-term. You take risks others are afraid to do. So did I [100% matching IRA invested in stock since 2001], it works and very quickly too.

    I’m glad I don’t have to pay back 2020’s 6.3% FICA 2020 pay loan back to the IRS in 2021. I’m not paying Social Security anymore…. read more in my website:

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

  243. 243

    RE: Erik @ 237

    Sometimes a seller will pay something of the buyer’s costs or buy down the rate instead of doing a price reduction. More common for builders but not unheard of for private sellers in weak markets.

    FHA has an up front payment that is often financed called MIP. Sometimes part up front and part monthly. Conventional PMI can be bought out up front as well. A conventional loan with less than 20% down will have a Mortgage Insurance Payment the same as FHA, though an FHA Mortgage Insurance Premium/MIP has a slightly different definition than Conventional Private Mortgage Insurance/PMI. Easier to just call it “MI” so it applies regardless of loan type.

    If a “meaningful” price reduction at that price point is $25,000 and you can pay $10,000 of stuff for the buyer instead, an incentive is often used because it is cheaper and often more effective.

    Builders use it because it is a hidden price concession and their “comp” stays high for future sales in the same development. Very common in Winter so that the comps for Spring sales aren’t reduced.

  244. 244
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 238
    I got a layoff notice and fought to stay employed. The pressure was on with a pregnant wife and a baby bird at home to feed. The key is staying positive and acting quickly. When layoff strikes, the first ones to act, are the ones that get to stay employed at another position in the company.

    Once I fixed my situation, I helped other engineers do the same. The ones that succeeded where the ones that had enough confidence to not let it beat them down and dealt with it quickly and without shame. Laid off employees that got depressed were left behind and I had to move on to help others.

    As Eastsider was criticizing me for not being compassionate for laid off employees at the company I work at, I was helping those same employees stay employed. I helped them with resumes and introduced them to senior managers I knew had job openings.

    You got a pension and that is a big deal in my opinion. All you need is a pension and some stocks to retire. I just want to retire early and investing in index funds doesn’t support that.

  245. 245
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 239
    Thanks Ardell. The fact that PMI and MIP have the same letters adds to the confusion. I’ve paid both PMI and MIP before, and I get them confused.

    Paying the PMI fee is helping lower the payments for the buyer without changing the purchase price, got it.

    As I can see from this website, most buyers just care about the monthly cost, so I see why paying PMI would incentivize them if that’s their only focus. It’s like when someone goes to a car lot to buy a new car and they spread the payment out over 10 years, Dumb money focuses only on payments.

  246. 246
    SeaH says:

    I wouldn’t say I’m focused on monthly payments. It’s just that interest rate so low and a market with continued appreciation, it would take more explanation to spend more cash than needed .
    Personally I would buy for location foremost.
    RE: Erik @ 241

  247. 247
    Erik says:

    RE: SeaH @ 242
    That comment wasn’t indirectly pointed to you. It’s smart to figure all this stuff out. I personally just get the best professionals to help me like Ardell. I just focus on the deal, she worries about the details.

  248. 248
    Erik says:

    I just saw a good quote people on this site could benefit from:

    “Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait” ~Will Rogers

    This site is full of people looking for a reason not to buy.

  249. 249
  250. 250

    Seattle Sellers and Buyers Owe 6.2% of their “gross pay” for four months; re: monthly Social Security paycheck deduction loan and must pay it ALL back before the April 2021 deadline.

    Dig deep ya got another BIG Bill in your LOAN Christmas Stocking. Anyone paying into Social Security did.

    Read more on the OVERPOPULATION website folks.

    https://overpopulation-softwarengineer.blogspot.com/

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