Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, and support the ongoing work on this site by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.

Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 6 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,778 comments:

  1. 501
    Erik says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 497
    The fed knows how to manipulate the market to keep rates low beyond setting the rate. What I’m saying is the fed will manipulate the market using the tools in their belt to keep rates low. Fed can create demand by loosening lending standards. They can make the federal funds rate positive.

  2. 502
    chip&dip says:

    RE: OA @ 492 -Nasty Eric doesn’t talk for all of us. He tries to dominant Tim’s blog. He’s boorish.

  3. 503
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 500
    I’m not gonna let some party snack talk about me like that!

  4. 504
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 500
    Nasty Erik, ha ha ha! I’m trying to convince these computer geeks to invest in real estate. If they have high incomes, it’s even easier. So much more can be gained with real estate vs saving into a 401K.

  5. 505
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 488RE: Erik @ 495
    I take it back, rates could be going up. Maybe I should look closer at that graph.

    From an investor I follow:

    “Fears brewing that Fed will raise rates sooner than 2023/2024 after all. Reflation searches skyrocket on Google. @CathieDWood at @ARKInvest sees 2 paths: 1) Inflation SOONER; Fed changes course & rates bump. 2) Velocity stays low; inflation stays low; rates stay low. I think 2.”

    Maybe the Fed lied to us and rates are going up.? This guy thinks we’ll have low inflation over the next few years, but who knows.

    So, if inflation stays low, rates will stay low. and I can refinance at lower rates. I should be cheering for less stimulus.

  6. 506
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 503 – Gas prices are up. Food, too. Thank goodness Blatz beer is holding the line, although I have a sneaking suspicion that the XXtra Flamin’ Hot Crunchy Cheetos bag has gotten smaller. What is Biden doing about this!

  7. 507
    ruxpert says:

    so what is the market euphoria all about?
    https://youtu.be/69TnvJ5-kyg?t=568

  8. 508

    RE: Blurtman @ 504
    Food Cost is Almost Free Now

    Most of the cost of food at Safeway is plastic containers made from oil….if oil goes up so will food. Cheap labor is a moot point in comparison and a useless food price fix now.

  9. 509

    RE: Erik @ 503
    Don’t Feel Bad Erik:

    The trend uncertainty in inflation won’t change much? The likely Biden Tax Increases won’t pop up until a tax plan change passes Congress for 2022 and wasting time on a dead end impeachment isn’t speeding it up either. The Dem version immigration bill just won’t fly for the Dems….not with Killer Flu travel restrictions and poverty for indoor workers/businesses. the fun goes on and on…LOL….the future is clear as mud now.

  10. 510
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 505
    Brought to you by Kitco, the precious metal distributor. They are trying to scare people out of the stock market, so they can sell more precious metals. I don’t take advice from salespeople when it comes to investing.

  11. 511
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 507
    I suspect I’ll have time to refinance before rates go back up. I heard the banks aren’t doing cash out refi’s on investment properties though. I wasn’t planning to pull money out, but I thought it was interesting. If I want to pull money out, I’ll just have to get a HELOC.

    One more economic dip and Biden will start loosening lending standards, watch. That will be the beginning of another major real estate crash.

  12. 512

    RE: Erik @ 502

    You do sound a little like Ray Liotta in Goodfellas “For us to live any other way was nuts. Uh, to us, those goody-good people who worked shitty jobs for bum paychecks and took the subway to work every day, and worried about their bills, were dead. I mean they were suckers. They had no balls.” :)

  13. 513
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 510
    Thanks. I see myself more like the mother monkey though.

    Mother monkey is trying to kick all the little baby code monkeys out of the den and they won’t leave. But they are scared little code monkeys…. “No mommy, I can’t leave! For what if I get eaten by a tiger?!!!” Then the group of scared little baby monkeys finds every reason they can to not leave the den. Mother monkey gets frustrated and starts beating her fists near the monkeys to leave, but they won’t. They just keep coming up with excuse after excuse why they have to stay in mother’s den.

  14. 514
    chip&dip says:

    RE: Erik @ 491 – No lies, except the ones that you like. Any one that is new to this site please be aware that Eric boasts from his reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad, which was writing by a snake oil salesman.

    https://thecollegeinvestor.com/4726/ultimate-hypocrite-robert-kiyosaki-companys-bankruptcy/
    “Practice What You Preach
    What upsets me the most is that Kiyosaki is portrayed by many as a financial guru. His Rich Dad, Poor Dad book made him famous because of the practical advice that he pretended to gain throughout his life. He talks about life lessons learned, and how that allowed him to do great things in real estate and other ventures.
    The problem?
    Prior to his 1997 publication of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki never had any documentation of the wealth he supposedly amassed (Forbes)
    There really wasn’t a rich dad, even though his book specifically claims there was one (Smart Money Magazine, February 2003)
    In the end, this “non-fiction” story is just fiction, and so it calls into doubt the advice he gives to readers and followers.”

  15. 515
    Erik says:

    RE: chip&dip @ 512
    Rich Dad Poor Dad is in one of my favorites. I read a lot and it was very eye opening. If you want to make any big money, you gotta stop working for cash and make cash work for you. Great and very true message. I bought his cash flow board game and I think it really helped me with the way I think about money. Why not make money off borrowed cash? It’s a lot easier to make than working for money and you can make money a lot faster his way.

    I follow Robert Kiosaki on Twitter and what he’s been saying has come to fruition. Now he’s saying this:

    “First 100 Days. Biden to start printing money. 1st Step change the rules of the Fed. That is why Janet Yellen, former Fed Chairman is Sec of Treasury. Once Fed rules changed helicopters start dropped money directly to people. Dollar will be destroyed. Buy gold silver Bitcoin.”

    He’s been saying this since April 2020.

    He also said covid is a cover to bail out the repo market, which seems pretty likely to me.

    Why all the hate for Robert Kiosaki? He’s totally right. Wayyy easier to make money fast in Real Estate investing vs working for cash and saving until your old. The one thing that got me motivated was he said this… Employees have one income stream, their job. If they lose their job, that income stream dissolves and they have nothing. Since that point I’ve been trying to develop a passive income stream from real estate equal to my earned income in order to reduce my risk. I think it’s a really good point. Along the way to my goal, Covid struck and the Fed gave landlords a year off of paying their mortgages. Now they are gonna give landlords a $10k EIDL grant as a bonus. If you want money and financial security, real estate is where it’s at. Employees are ripped off on a daily basis.

    And if Robert Kiosaki is right about more and more printing of money, that’s even better for landlords. When the fed prints money, housing prices go up, and mortgage owed stay the same increasing a landlord’s net worth. Wake up and do what the smart money does party snack!

  16. 516
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 494

    Another episode:
    Washington DC Real Estate?

    Radio-Theater
    Far-Fetched, yet Intriguing listen/audiocog:
    Regardless of what side you currently reside in the DemoRub Trap,
    this appears to present some intriguing story-telling; you may enjoy?

    Situation Update, Jan 14th, 2021 – The FEMA Military coup to SAVE America, not destroy it
    ‘The Amazing Information’ starts at 8:40 minutes in
    https://youtu.be/-cvxsr9Q63Y?t=509

  17. 517
  18. 518
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 515
    I think Robert Kiosaki is a drama Queen. He is saying some bold things. He’s been pretty much right so far though. I like to watch him on Twitter as things unfold to see if he’s right. So far Robert Kiosaki has been right. Now we have the house, senate, and president all democrat and we are primed to print money. Biden is bringing in Janet Yellen to change the rules of the fed so they can print more money. At this point I kinda think he’s gonna be right again. My real estate investment money is all in Tesla and holding or else I may buy bitcoin.

    Real estate prices are going to skyrocket if we have massive inflation. It will be easy for landlords to sell and pay off property as mortgages stay constant and the value of the dollar tanks. Viva Joe Biden! He’s gonna screw America, but it doesn’t mean landlords still can’t profit.

  19. 519
    northender says:

    RE: Erik @ 516
    For about the last 15 years I’ve thought off and on that inflation and interest rates were sure to rise at some point but no, rates have only fallen and inflation has stayed low. But this has been a lucrative time to own and hold property anyway.

    I could imagine some increased inflation but don’t think it would get crazy. And even if there is inflation there is a potential for dems to impose rent control that would limit the benefits to landlords. The legislative session has just begun but already some wacky bills have been introduced to prohibit eviction and establish rent control for one or more years after the covid emergency passes. You can look up SB5160 and SB5139.

  20. 520
    OA says:

    By northender @ 517:

    RE: Erik @ 516
    For about the last 15 years I’ve thought off and on that inflation and interest rates were sure to rise at some point but no, rates have only fallen and inflation has stayed low. But this has been a lucrative time to own and hold property anyway.

    I could imagine some increased inflation but don’t think it would get crazy. And even if there is inflation there is a potential for dems to impose rent control that would limit the benefits to landlords. The legislative session has just begun but already some wacky bills have been introduced to prohibit eviction and establish rent control for one or more years after the covid emergency passes. You can look up SB5160 and SB5139.

    100% agree on the interest rates and inflation. It’s really odd that for the past decade we’ve had fairly low rates and inflation has been low as well, it’s not supposed to work that way.

  21. 521
    ruxpert says:

    You thought 2020 was bad? 2021 will be ‘dreadful’, ‘unprecedented’ – Gerald Celente
    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-14/You-thought-2020-was-bad-2021-will-be-dreadful-unprecedented-Gerald-Celente.html

  22. 522
    Blurtman says:

    Quite amazing to hear people discuss the lack of inflation in the comments section of a story that describes RE price inflation of 13 – 25% YOY.

    Nota bene: There is RE, equities, college, health care, automobiles, etc. price inflation. Compounding the pain has been flat wages.

    Less than a decade ago, Seattle was like any other town. People with nothing but problems. Then, out of the sky came a solution. Seeds drifting through space for years took root in a farmer’s field. From the seeds came pods which had the power to reproduce themselves in the exact likeness of any form of life…Your new bodies are growing in there. They’re taking you over cell for cell, atom for atom. There is no pain. Suddenly, while you’re asleep, they’ll absorb your minds, your memories and you’re reborn into an untroubled world…Tomorrow you’ll be one of us…There’s no need for love…Love. Desire. Ambition. Faith. Without them, life is so simple, believe me.

  23. 523
    Erik says:

    RE: northender @ 517
    The fed lowers interest rates to increase inflation. When inflation gets too high, they raise interest rates to lower inflation. What happens when inflation is low and we can’t reduce rates any further to raise inflation? We print money.

    I think inflation will slump again and we won’t be able to lower rates any further. Then we’ll start printing money and devaluing our currency. Landlords will get richer and employees saving in diversified index funds will get poorer. The sheep that were told to invest in a well diversified 401k will get slaughtered and end up working for money until they die. The ones that have passive income that increases with inflation will be saved.

  24. 524
  25. 525

    RE: Brianna @ 522
    Biden wants $2T More Federal Debt Now

    How does he get that much debt? Will it portend higher interest rates in 2022 when the Trump tax tables are replaced with much higher Biden ones in 2023? Time will tell…use a crystal ball, its more accurate….LOL

    Seattle Real Estate price increases now has its head on the 2022 Biden tax increases head extractor and the blade is coming down in about a year? How can anyone be haughty and pretend to know? The Tooth fairy knows….LOL

  26. 526

    Generally I’m not a fan of low rates, but then I’m probably the only one who remembers buying 30 year bonds at 18%. :) One of the reasons so many have been buying into get rich quick schemes for many years now is that interest rates have been too low. Same with home prices getting out of control because rates are too low. I will remind people that the appreciation rate we see is not commonplace around the Country. When home prices double every 20 years, that is equivalent to an old-timey 5% passbook savings account. Many not out in the middle of nowhere houses took 20 years to be worth double what the owner paid, while here we have seen that happen in 2 to 4 years in many cases. So ask yourself why that happened and why it might not happen again. Picture this area as it was 15 to 20 years ago and whether it will plateau as to that type of explosion of new businesses hiring at high salaries and even possibly start unraveling. 20 years ago the Seattle Area had nowhere to go but up…but can you say that today and in the long term? Not saying the answer is no. That is for each of you to answer. I don’t think that can happen without a new crash first. So investing for appreciation today thinking home prices will double again in short order, at some point if not today has to be a nonstarter.

    I have a question that’s off on a tangent. In the talks about stimulus and the Federal Government coming up with a plan to provide needed funds to the States I hear this. States HAVE to only spend what they have. They don’t have the same ability as the Federal Government to use debt to fund…vaccinations, rent assistance and all of the things that are coming down the pike due to 2020. BUT…here’s the question. Why should people who live in a State with a 10% income tax pay more Federal Tax dollars to fund the States that have NO income tax? Shouldn’t all of the States have the same Income Tax if people in other States are expected to pay the shortfall of a State with inadequate funds? If inadequate funds are because of the Income Tax differential between States, why should the Federal Government fund the States that don’t tax as much as others? 7 States have NO Income Tax. The top 10 States have an average Income Tax of about 10%. California’s is 13% or so. Hawaii is 11%. A few others are just under 10%. So why should/would California care that WA doesn’t have enough money? I know no one wants high rates and a Federally mandated income tax, but isn’t that what is needed? If the Federal Government has to fund the shortfall, shouldn’t they have some say in how much is collected? Or should it be a loan to the States that have no Income Tax from the people whose tax is 13%?

  27. 527
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 522
    They will continue printing money then.

  28. 528
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 524
    Bah humbug Ardell. The party is just beginning and it sounds like you need another shot. Real estate is still technically in expansion and inventory is at record lows. I am wearing my party hat and you can too. It’s time to think positive and buy buy buy. We can sell when we hit Hypersupply and King County inventory is nearing 8000. Seattle Real Estate prices to the moon!

  29. 529
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 524 – I see what you’re saying about the state tax issue, but I don’t think it’s as simple as states with no income tax get more federal funding. States tax their residents in a variety of ways, some do it through income tax, some do it through higher property tax or higher sales tax, or any combination of those and other taxes.

    I’m including some state and and also county/local taxes there, but just speaking in broad terms about tax revenue within a state.

    Admittedly, I don’t know the formula or criteria for how much each state gets in federal funding. I’m just thinking they probably don’t give more to the states with no income tax to make up for the fact that those states have no income tax. But who knows, nothing the federal or state/local governments do could shock me too much.

  30. 530

    RE: Erik @ 526

    Erik…I talk to people who are buying HOMES to LIVE in. :) They might not talk here…but they do read here. In fact I’m not a big fan of investors sucking up all the houses leaving not enough inventory for families which drives up prices. I’ve always been a residential real estate agent, 30+ years, doing mostly what I call “a family trade”. Usually I only do investors who bought their primary residence with me. You were the exception to that rule…not really though because I don’t have that rule for sellers. Only buyers.

    I have a lot of clients like OA as example who had $500 and now have a $1.5M net worth. I don’t know why you don’t believe him. Most of that is their $600,000 house I helped them buy that is now $1.2M. The bulk of their net worth is already real estate. They don’t need more of that type of asset.

  31. 531

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 527

    Property Taxes are usually earmarked for things and can’t be used for Vaccines. Not 100% sure. But that is usually the case. Where did we get the money to buy the vaccines we have? I think States did pay for what they have received to date. That the County or the School District received money does not give money to the State for these things. That is why a County Tax like a Property Tax can’t replace an Income Tax.

    I don’t think anything Property Tax and pay for anything COVID related except maybe as it relates to what schools need.

  32. 532
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 528
    Yes, if your perspective clients read this site, you should most definitely align with them and not offend them. I would not align with me on this site if I were you, because they may think you have the same beliefs. I could give 2 sh!ts about what these code monkeys think about me because I’m here to talk real estate and learn more. I have nothing to sell or gain from these shifty eyed introverts. If they want to wake up and start investing in real estate, I will help them, although I have nothing to sell them. Right now they think saving a percentage of their paychecks and trying to feed off it until they die is the way to go. That’s bad thinking. I have had a couple software people from here contact me and I helped them the best I could and I have no problem doing that. They were satisfied and I was happy to help. I don’t want anything, I just to help pull them out of their ignorant state.

    OA created a fake story and is leading people into the wrong direction. Like Justme did, that will keep Seattle Bubble readers poor. OA is keeping readers poor and ignorant.

    Here’s OA’s story:
    -Came from a poor family that didn’t help him financially
    -Graduated High School 2008
    -Went to UW 4 years and took student loans for something that isn’t software engineering
    -Works at software company
    -Invests 50% of income into diversified index funds

    Okay, at this point he has say $80k in student loans and his first job is starting out at a tech company, but he’s not a software engineer. He can’t buy property because he has student loans because he’s up to his ears in debt and he is scared to death of risk. He had to pay the $80k of student loans off before he bought property while he was renting. OA wants no debt and to only invest in very safe diversified index funds.

    So this is the claim of what OA did in 9 years following UW graduation:
    -Paid off $90k in student loans
    -Bought land on the Eastside while renting and paid off the land with earned income
    -Built his own house and paid it off with earned income
    -Got married
    -Has 2 kids
    -Now magically has enough money to retire

    All in 9 years investing in well diversified index funds. OA saved $2M coming right out of school while still affording a family. He took no risk, he just went to work, and put his money in well diversified index funds.

    I can understand why a code monkey reading this would not like me. If you agree with me, they may not like you either and that’s bad business. What I’m saying is the truth, these software people need to stop hoarding their incomes and they need to invest in real estate. If they have high incomes, it’s so much easier.

    And I have a suspicion OA is Eastsider in disguise as justsomedude12 pointed out because they write the same and have the same screwed up logic that keeps good people poor.

  33. 533
    Brianna says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 524

    Yes, overall low rates have been horrible for affordability. I feel sorry for first time home buyers. Starter homes are twice what they were 20 years ago when we bought our first home.

  34. 534
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 528
    I’m sure you’ve helped create a lot of money for your clients as you’ve helped me. Your the best agent I know. You sell for investors because investors know you get them top price. Your staging is amazing and you are well worth your commission. I’d love to buy more properties with you, but like you said, you like to work with families.

    My argument is that OA is lying and that investing in real estate is much more lucrative than investing in 401k. If your clients were smart, they’d buy with you, live in the house, then buy a new house, and rent the old one out. Then sell something every 5 years or so and pocket $300k. That’s what I’d do if I lived in Kirkland.

  35. 535
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Erik @ 530:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 528

    And I have a suspicion OA is Eastsider in disguise as justsomedude12 pointed out because they write the same and have the same screwed up logic that keeps good people poor.

    It’s actually Eastsider and IsErikRichYet that I believe are the same person. My proof? Have you ever seen them in the same room together? I rest my case.

  36. 536
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 524

    You are clueless about state/local taxes.

    WA ranks #17 in state/local tax collections in the nation. We need to spend less, not collect more.

    How High Are State and Local Tax Collections in Your State?
    https://taxfoundation.org/state-local-tax-collections-per-capita-2019/

    Today’s state tax map shows state and local tax collections per capita in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. D.C.’s tax collections per capita ($10,841) are higher than in any state. The five states with the highest tax collections per capita are New York ($8,957), Connecticut ($7,220), New Jersey ($6,709), North Dakota ($6,630), and Massachusetts ($6,469). The five states with the lowest tax collections per capita are Alabama ($3,206), Tennessee ($3,322), South Carolina ($3,435), Oklahoma ($3,458), and Florida ($3,478).

  37. 537
    Eastsider says:

    Another urban legend is our state/local taxes unproportionately hurt the poor and worsen the wealth gap. The fact is rich/poor divide in WA is slightly better than the US average.

    List of U.S. states by Gini coefficient
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Gini_coefficient

  38. 538
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 533
    Oops, I got them confused. So many software people on here’s all with the same thoughts, it’s easy to get them confused.

  39. 539
    Bumble says:

    By Eastsider @ 535:

    Another urban legend is our state/local taxes unproportionately hurt the poor and worsen the wealth gap. The fact is rich/poor divide in WA is slightly better than the US average.

    List of U.S. states by Gini coefficient
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Gini_coefficient

    The fact that our income spread in WA is about average for the nation says little or nothing about how WA then taxes its population.

    Obviously we don’t have a state income tax in WA (think about how that might affect your Gini index, if the index even takes state income taxes into account). To compensate, we have high property taxes and sales taxes in WA. It is the latter that disproportionately (not unproportionately) consumes a larger share of income for Washington’s poor. So you aren’t going to see some of the features of our regressive taxation in an income comparison.

    By some measures, WA has the most regressive tax structure of any state in the US. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washingtons-paradox-progressive-politics-but-regressive-tax-system/

  40. 540
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 534

    As I said earlier, total taxes aren’t relevant to available per State for pandemic relief. County taxes aren’t part of that State budget. Where are the funds for pandemic relief, State paid, coming from?

  41. 541
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 538 – I believe we have (had?) enough “rainy” fund to pay for the pandemic relief. Why would we have a “rainy” fund otherwise?

  42. 542
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Bumble @ 537

    It is true that WA does not have an income tax. But it is one of very few states (3?) that imposes a B&O tax on businesses. B&O tax accounts for one fifth of the state tax receipts. The progressives keep harping on the income tax because they want to collect more money. WA already has a higher than average per capita tax burden.

    WA sales tax is 6.5% (CA 7.25% MA 6.25% IL 6.25%), about the same as other similar states with an income tax! So your statement is false – ” It is the latter that disproportionately (not unproportionately) consumes a larger share of income for Washington’s poor.” (You may want to stop reading propaganda from progressive sources, including the Seattle Times.)

    We are already taxing the “rich” via the B&O tax. The state should have allocated more budget to fund cities and counties which would have reduced local sales tax burden.

    The Infamous B&O Tax
    https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/article/infamous-bo-tax

  43. 543
    Bumble says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 540

    The Seattle Times was simply citing a report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Would you prefer an article from Sinclair-owned KOMO citing the same report? https://komonews.com/news/local/wash-state-has-most-unfair-tax-structure-in-nation-report-finds?_gl=1*1dhzaqb*_ga*RkRpZTRvbVlqNE1RWXc5SEFBV3VsaHp6RmtoQzJveEltTWpOeEhJQWVmOE9zTjROYjlmMUZ4Ui16TEtEUDRfZA..

    And if you write off everything in The Seattle Times as “propaganda,” you appear to be an unthinking soldier in the current culture war. Judge EACH article in ANY publication with a critical eye.

    As for B&O taxes, which are less than 1%, you are conflating business taxes with personal taxes. Yes, there is some relationship between the two categories for people who own businesses. For example, my business pays B&O taxes before I get my share of the company profits as income. But if you are going to say that B&O business taxes affect the personal taxation of WA residents, why stop there? What about the half dozen other taxes businesses pay to the state? You are missing the point. Poor people in WA (especially those earning less than $24k) pay a much higher percentage of their personal INCOME to the state than even average earners (not wealthy business owners) in WA pay from their personal INCOME. That fact is demonstrable, not an “urban myth.”

    Taxes are complicated. Assessing the fairness of taxes is complicated. I’m not going to pretend that I have wrapped my head all the way around it. I have to read what experts have concluded and judge for myself whether their conclusions are supported and persuasive. In my view, the experts have shown that the way WA taxes it’s citizen’s INCOME is regressive. I urge you to read the report I cited, which simply shows “incomes are more unequal in Washington after state and local taxes are collected than before.“

  44. 544
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 539

    Not the case. To date and before the coming Biden plan, The Care Act has given $1.87 Billion to the State of WA for PPE, testing, etc. plus additional funds directly to counties and cities. See ofm.wa. gov for details. Washington Office of Financial Management.

  45. 545
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 542

    Total to WA State from Federal funds as of 1/5 for Pandenic Relief was $2.95 Biliion.

  46. 546

    The market has officially opened for 2021 this weekend. Sometimes that happens around the 8th, but most times it is more mid-Jan.

    This means that some if not most homes that came on market Thursday and Friday are solidly booked as to appointments through Monday and some are even solidly booked up to the review date. (anecdotal as to the houses I am reviewing of course)

    This continues to be a problem due to COVID given ALL showings must be by scheduled appointment, even on vacant houses, and no 2 agents can overlap. So the sellers should and are not taking into consideration that buyers can’t GET IN to see it! I think it’s time for longer review times with no early offers. I haven’t had a problem yet, but I have seen near fisticuffs with agents pretending they have an appointment who don’t. I don’t blame them really because when there are no available appointments before the seller is looking at offers it may make sense to just go and figure it out. Especially since agents often need to make appointments before knowing if their clients want to see it in order to get a “spot” on the schedule.

    If there is ONE thing I would say is affecting real estate due to COVID it is THIS . Hard to explain without showing you a picture, but basically when you want to see it you go to a chart and can’t schedule if the time is blacked out by already confirmed appointments…and the calendar for all days is totally black, especially for daylight hours and sometimes up through and into the no daylight hours.

    I’ve always hated the term “looky-loos”, but clearly this is not a good time for people to schedule an appointment to see a house if they have no real possibility of making an offer on it. There are way too many people who want to see it than the “will review offers on Tuesday” is able to accommodate.

    This will continue as long as the State COVID guidelines are ONE agent and their clients only and no going to the house at all without a scheduled appointment which is more of an mls thing at the moment. In normal times we don’t need appointments for vacant houses and we don’t have to use the automated showing confirmation app to go to a house. But during COVID this calendar app becomes the be-all-end-all as to whether or not you can go to see it. There is a bit of “gaming the system” going on, but almost by necessity. If you don’t grab an appointment as soon as the house comes on market…good luck getting any appointment.

    It’s really a frustrating mess. I don’t usually complain about market conditions, but this has been beyond crazy for way too long now with no end in sight.

    Makes me wonder why LWSD announced it is opening schools (optional and part time) when everywhere else I am seeing the COVID numbers are at an all time high. On the bright side, I think Kim, and likely me too shortly after him, will be getting the vaccine sooner than later. He’ll be 74 on Feb 3 so he’s 1b tier 1 and likely will get it along with his kidney dialysis treatments, same as he gets flu shots. I’m a spring chicken at 66 and healthy as a horse, but they likely will do age 65+ after some higher priorities and more essential workers. I’m in no hurry. There are many people I’d rather see get it than me, even if it is just because they are scared shtlss. I only worry for Kim and not myself.

  47. 547
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Bumble @ 541

    I’m not sure what the fuss is about. I have already stated that WA sales tax is 6.5% (CA 7.25% MA 6.25% IL 6.25%). How is it more regressive than other states? …unless you are advocating for no taxes at all, or tax credit (aka universal income). Totally “progressive” concept.

    WA collects more than its fair share of taxes. It could have shared the excess revenue with local cities/counties to offset their budgets. If you are so concerned about regressive taxes, I suggest that you start with your state legislature to reduce state spending and increase local spending.

    I believe the state budget has outpaced inflation and the population growth in the past decade

  48. 548
    justsomedude12 says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 544:

    Makes me wonder why LWSD announced it is opening schools (optional and part time) when everywhere else I am seeing the COVID numbers are at an all time high. On the bright side, I think Kim, and likely me too shortly after him, will be getting the vaccine sooner than later. He’ll be 74 on Feb 3 so he’s 1b tier 1 and likely will get it along with his kidney dialysis treatments, same as he gets flu shots. I’m a spring chicken at 66 and healthy as a horse, but they likely will do age 65+ after some higher priorities and more essential workers. I’m in no hurry. There are many people I’d rather see get it than me, even if it is just because they are scared shtlss. I only worry for Kim and not myself.

    I think the logic is that we can open things up for those in lower risk categories, and those in higher risk categories can continue to quarantine. It sucks for the higher risk people who must still quarantine, but they’d have to do that no matter what.

    Given the options of everyone being forced to quarantine, or just higher risk people and those who choose to quarantine doing so, I think the latter makes much more sense. These blanket lockdowns were a mistake. They needlessly ruined many peoples’ financial lives and tacked on huge amounts of unnecessary debt to future generations. They are an emotional reaction, rather than a logical one.

    End of rant.

  49. 549
    Seah says:

    I thought the 3D virtual walkthrough is suffice . I see it on Redfin and Zillow . Do we know how many average bids one house gets , particularly on the east side .
    What are creative ways buyers are doing to “ win “? I know people write a letter but … everybody will be doing that.
    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 544

  50. 550
    Eastsider says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546

    Agreed. Most European countries have kept schools opened since summer/fall. Same as Japan. Despite that dangerous policy, Europe still has fewer Covid cases per capita than the US. And Japan has practically no cases in comparison.

    Stunting our kids is inexcusable.

  51. 551
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546

    I would not have closed anything ever.

    I’m just saying the numbers right now are higher than several months while they were closed, so why now?

  52. 552
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Seah @ 547

    No. You can’t buy a house without physically seeing it. I just returned from showing a house and nothing that I personally examine first hand is in a photo or 3D tour. I am not a fan of 3D tours BTW. Bad for the seller and not good for a buyer.

    You are correct as to needing creative ways to “win”. No we don’t tell what they are because then we have to create new ones. :)

  53. 553
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 544
    Sounds like low supply and high demand to me. The market started early and people are having trouble scheduling a time to see a house. Buyers are willing to run out onto the Covid infested streets just to buy a house. That’s high demand and aligns with the data we see on this website.

    You are a very healthy 66 and you look great. If I was Kim, I may get the vaccine just because he’s a little older and may have a compromised immune system. Personally, I’m not getting the vaccine. I don’t get the regular flu shot or any other vaccines because I like to be as natural as possible. I am in my 30’s and I have a high immune system.

    I didn’t even want my kids to get vaccines. My more traditional Midwest wife did, so we settled on an extended vaccination schedule that spaces out the vaccines that my naturopathic doctor gave us. Vaccines are great, but they just aren’t for me. My preference is to not get injected by a vaccine from an experimental government project called “Operation Warp Speed.”

  54. 554
    Erik says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546
    I completely agree.

    I had been waiting years to see what would happen before this past presidential election. When there is a Republican in office, something always happens before the presidential election to bring down the economy. Democratic cities and the media used the virus to shut down the economy before the election. Media put fear into people that watch news. That paved the way to shutdown cities. There is no way anyone would have believed Joe Biden, the 78 year old white career politician lawyer would ever win unless that happened.

    The question I ask myself is if China sent it over on purpose wanting this outcome? Well, China closed down air travel within China but left it open to the US and Europe. They knew not to spread it through their own country but sent it to us. That’s pretty suspicious. I tend to believe based on what I’ve seen that the virus was sent from China on purpose. Then Democrats used it to get the guy out that was taking money from China. There are too many coincidences here.

  55. 555
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 523
    Scroll down and read Tim’s opinion on politics.

    https://ellis.fyi/

    After reading that do you think you were censored by Tim for being off topic or because you have a different political opinion?

  56. 556
    Blurtman says:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546 – The illogic of shutting down the economy was pointed out on this very blog many months ago, when the NYC mortality data became known, so good on you for finally catching up.

    And now we have a peer reviewed publication from Stanford, no less, pointing out the uselessness of lockdowns.

    Assessing Mandatory Stay-at-Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID-19
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33400268/

    Most sheeple need to believe that their leaders are competent. This offloads responsibilty to someone else, and provides a (hopefully decreasing) degree of comfort. And yet the LA County public health officer, Barbara Ferrer, has a foo-foo PhD degree. She is not a scientist or MD, and LA County COVID19 mortality is out of control.

  57. 557
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 551

    I haven’t had a vaccine since the polio vaccine when I was a small child. I’ve never had a flu shot. If it gives my children some peace of mind, I will get vaccinated. As your children get older their opinions will matter a great deal. I don’t want to worry them unnecessarily. I want my 90 year old Mom to get it, so if they make it easy enough to get, I’ll do it.

    My sister got COVID with no issues besides mandatory quarantine. She had some issues with taste. I encouraged her to eat healthy things she usually hates while she can’t taste them anyway. :)

  58. 558
    David says:

    By Erik @ 552:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546 – That’s pretty suspicious. I tend to believe based on what I’ve seen that the virus was sent from China on purpose.

    It is TOTAL coincidence that a Chinese lab was manufacturing this virus and that it magically appeared in everyone right next door. Evidence otherwise is circumstantial.

  59. 559

    RE: Eastsider @ 548
    Seattle Teachers Don’t Want to Work in Killer Flu and Want the Biden $2T With Plenty of Killer Flu Pork for Sitting at Home Loafing

    https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/survey-shows-people-would-rather-quit-than-go-back-to-work

    I hear cops don’t like toxic work conditions in Killer Flu either…does anyone?

  60. 560
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 557 – Are there many over 65 year old teachers?

  61. 561
    justsomedude12 says:

    By Blurtman @ 554:

    RE: justsomedude12 @ 546 – The illogic of shutting down the economy was pointed out on this very blog many months ago, when the NYC mortality data became known, so good on you for finally catching up.

    I’ve been saying this from the beginning. Even posted it on here. :)

  62. 562
    northender says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 550
    On topic of buying remotely, our gracious host has a post about that on the redfin blog and he mentions that he recently bought a house in Connecticut. He did visit during the inspection. It looks pretty nice!

  63. 563
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: northender @ 560

    Visit during inspection is fine, but here you have to waive inspection and all contingemlncies with # of offers averaging 8 to 20. So it would pretty much be sight unseen until right before closing with no legal outs.

    But yes, I’ve done many over the years with an inspection contingency that we didn’t see before offer acceptance. I was talking this market right now. No contingencies.

    I did a condo in Glendale, CA once that no one saw before closing. Not even the owner/seller. That was interesting. :)

  64. 564
    IssaquahResident says:

    What are the thoughts on the new Biden stimulus bill? As I understand, it provides eviction ban extension till September and no new help for people with mortgages. Existing protections for mortgage payers expired on Dec. 31. Eric, is my understanding correct?
    Should we expect flood of listings?

  65. 565
    OA says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 528:

    RE: Erik @ 526

    Erik…I talk to people who are buying HOMES to LIVE in. :) They might not talk here…but they do read here. In fact I’m not a big fan of investors sucking up all the houses leaving not enough inventory for families which drives up prices. I’ve always been a residential real estate agent, 30+ years, doing mostly what I call “a family trade”. Usually I only do investors who bought their primary residence with me. You were the exception to that rule…not really though because I don’t have that rule for sellers. Only buyers.

    I have a lot of clients like OA as example who had $500 and now have a $1.5M net worth. I don’t know why you don’t believe him. Most of that is their $600,000 house I helped them buy that is now $1.2M. The bulk of their net worth is already real estate. They don’t need more of that type of asset.

    Yes a good chunk of my net worth is definitely in real estate. When I built our home it enabled me to keep the margin that builder’s make on new homes to myself, plus the market value of the house has significantly appreciated in price since.

  66. 566
    Blurtman says:

    RE: OA @ 563 – Because of state and federal governmental inaction, as well as badly enacted policies executed at the behest of the providers of campaign contributions and revolving door employment, many Americans no longer have access to decent paying manufacturing jobs and pensions. These jobs were outsourced under Clinton, Bush and Obama.

    RE price appreciation due to low interest rate policies, and the absence of decent paying jobs and flat wages, means many Americans have a difficult time buying their own home, let alone saving for retirement.

    The poorly thought out, knee jerk shutting down of the economy over a new virus that is fatal primarily to people over 65 with comorbidities, has even removed the earnings capability for much of the low-paying service sector, including food and beverage and hospitality workers, as well as workers juggling multiple gig jobs to get by.

    To solve the mortgage payment problem, we, the taxpayer, will preferentially pay the mortgages of people of color, irrespective of their ability to pay, which also includes anyone with ties to former Spanish colonies, anyone with a relative with a Spanish surname, or anyone who just likes Spanish culture., e.g. Hilary Baldwin The problematic Asian group, the highest wage earners by race, will also be included. While there are numerically more poor colorless people than people of color, any lobbying to help this unfortunate group is racist and forbidden.

    So the government pays the mortgages of some American homeowners, which should staunch the flow of homes onto the market. But for the homes of the disadvantaged privileged that receive no government assistance, rentiers like Blackstone and Erik, as well as legitimate buyers seeking lodging for themselves and family, will snap up the formerly owned homes. What the balance of supply and demand will be depends on the scope of the Biden programs that get enacted.

    With regards to lost earnings caused by the clumsy overreaction of state governments, we are seeing the beginning of initiatives likely to continue – the direct wiring of money into peoples’ accounts by the federal government, irrespective of employment status. This benefits online ordering companies like AMZN, and China in general, the source of many of the goods purchased online.

    So the flood of homes onto the market will be tempered somewhat by government mortgage payment assistance, including the direct purchase of homes and transfer of ownership to the delinquent mortgage payers of color, and lessened a bit, as well, by the free money given out to anyone below a certain income cut-off, irrespective of employment status.

    Stay tuned.

  67. 567
    IsErikRichYet says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 564

    It is now obvious to everyone where the blurt in your username comes from. What a massive pile of drivel. Your thoughts reek of that of a lower or middle class white person that is taking out their anger over not being an upperclass white person. I’ll just leave you with this little gem from LBJ:

    “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”

    Hilariously, your grief over people of color getting preferential mortgage assistance (there is no proof of this) is precisely what your fellow white man Erik is doing. You’re a pawn to the upper class you so dearly think you’re entitled to. Wake up.

    To get back on topic: the new stimulus package looks exactly as I figured it would. The non-stimulus related topic that got clubbed in that makes this bill dead on arrival is the $15 per hour national minimum wage.

  68. 568
    IsErikRichYet says:

    RE: IssaquahResident @ 562

    The mortgage forbearance was extended to end of February back in December.

  69. 569
    Blurtman says:

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 565 – Not sure how you define upper and lower class, but please elucidate. Please also offer your definition of “people of color.”

    US manufacturing jobs over time: https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2018/05/14/Photos/ZG/MW-GJ151_Manufa_20180514104700_ZG.png?uuid=a844660e-5785-11e8-8d8f-ac162d7bc1f7
    https://cerasis.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/american-manufacturing-jobs-lost-over-the-years.png

  70. 570
    OA says:

    RE: Erik @ 532

    Erik, dude….I don’t recall what I exactly said to get in your head to make you spew a bunch of nonsense, but lemme clarify a few things:

    1) I’ve never had a penny of debt to my name. And hope that I never will. Had scholarships and worked my way through college. Lived with my parents (including college) and it wasn’t until I was 25 when I got married that I moved out.
    2) I’m not a SW engineer, tech companies are not just made up of all software people. There’s more than 1 way to make really good money at sw companies. I’ll leave it at that.
    3) I started investing at a very early age, I opened an account with Vanguard during my freshman year in college.
    4) I’ve advanced really fast in my career and have been well compensated.
    5) I’ve definitely caught a few breaks over the past decade (aside from my home) that benefited me well financially and accelerated by net worth.
    6) I’ve always been really disciplined at saving at least 50% of my income and investing it. This is in addition to 401k contributions. See point #4.

    I don’t see how I mislead people by advising them to spend less than they earn and then investing the difference. This is a tried and true method for LT wealth building. How they invest it (real estate, equities, other, etc) is up to them. The whole idea is to have a strategy and stick to it.

    I ask that you drop your nonsensical attacks on someone you clearly know nothing about. For someone like you that claims to want to learn new things, that’s definitely not the way to go about it. I’ve tried to be cordial in my responses to you. The world is a small place, don’t be a jerk. If this persists I’ll start ignoring your posts altogether.

  71. 571

    RE: IsErikRichYet @ 566

    https://reason.com/2021/01/16/bidens-recovery-plan-would-extend-the-federal-governments-extraordinary-eviction-ban-through-september-2021/?puprf_email=softwarengineer%40yahoo.com&puprf_newsletters%5B%5D=new-at-reason-dot-com&puprf_submit=Subscribe

    Not if the $2T Biden Killer Flu Bill Passes Congress/Senate this year….then renter evictions will be prohibited through Sep 2021. The landlords are screwed and it looks like the $2T deficit will not pay for it? The Tooth Fairy will pay the missing rent? LOL

    “…Biden is instead encouragingly adopting a more limited vision of his presidential powers, even as he doubles down on a heavy-handed housing policy that is an unnecessary, and potentially counterproductive, means of preventing a true “wave” of evictions….”

    Erik, your thoughts? Everett was always Crime City, even in the 70s….the constant police sirens at night were normal then too…we used to use CB radios and listen to constant Everett police reports then too…one we listened to was interesting, they were filming alleged police brutality when a crime victim was alleged being video taped and beaten by four bad cops…we hid in our houses scared then too…

  72. 572
    Marc says:

    NEED ADVICE: I moved from Seattle 5 years to Illinois. Since I left I have been renting out my Seattle condo and have not kept up with the various COVID-19 restrictions. My professional property managment company provided me the Governors edict about eviction restrictions which also disalows rental increases. the current eviction moratorioum expires on 3-31-21.

    My question for you Seattle Landlords…..
    What is the liklihood of continuing the eviction (and rental increase) moratorioum on 3-31-21?
    Would it be wiser to offer a month to month lease instead of a year lease when renewal comes up 4-23-21 in the hope that sometime in the next 12 months the moratorium will end and I can raise the rent?

    I understand that the rental market in Seattle is not good for landlords and that Amazon, et al are still working remotely. But my south facing end unit condo has tremendous views of downtown seattle, Mt Rainier, capital hill, downtown Bellevue , is larger and is probably $200-$300 underpriced compared to apartments with similiar views if any really exist.

  73. 573
  74. 574
    ruxpert says:

    Jan.15
    Real Conversations: The New Great Depression w/ Jim Rickards
    https://youtu.be/JZVPNmgbwho?t=261
    Will crushing 50% of the economy effect Real Estate prices?
    political dysfunction on steroids
    major tax increases coming
    Body slam the US economy
    Big Tech Censorship
    Lockdowns
    etc.

  75. 575
    ruxpert says:

    Bulls Beware:
    Biden’s (DNC’s) best equity play is to have the bubble blow up sooner rather than later, blame Trump, and hope to be rallying by 2023. Take our current mood and throw a 50% equity correction, credit collapse, and recession on top of it. That’ll be “unsettling.”
    Warns Cornell Professor:
    https://youtu.be/H8R9vz94uXU?t=51

  76. 576
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 567 – Good paying, reasonably safe manufacturing work here was a medium term reality, made good-paying by union struggle, and declining as the only possible outcome of what was euphemistically termed “free trade” policies – championed by good Republicans seeking to better the position of business, in part, through cutting those unions.

    Long ago, I had one of those jobs. The “man” was our number one enemy. Our number two enemy was guys with crappy jobs that were mad at us about having better jobs. It’s not coming back, and yes, many working individuals are poorer today.

    However there are far more 2 income households today. That substantially backstops decreased earning power in providing continued affordability and increasing house prices for at least one significant subset of the population. In addition, for a number of reasons new houses continue to grow bigger; so average prices will continue to skew higher even than the reality. Better houses for fewer people, and more apartments for the rest, (although often better apartments) is the future in places where the economy is growing.

    That’s the trend; the pandemic is a blip. Your white grievance nursing is wrong on the facts, and wrong in framing an effective strategy. So it helps no one. Also, rentiers are as legitimate a customer as anyone. I see a grayed out post in my future, but I just had to get that off my chest.

  77. 577
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 573 – I agree with much of what you are saying. Point of reference – the median family income in 1960 was about $50,000 in today’s dollars, primarily with a single male wage earner, when unions were strong. The median family income today is about $68,000, with two wage earners more common. Doesn’t seem like a step forward from a financial perspective.

    The median home price in 1960 was about $104,000 in today’s dollars. The median home price today is about $300,000. Standard of living in spite of families working harder via two wage earners, from a home purchase perspective, is falling.

    With regards to denigrating the support of equal rights for all racial groups, I find your description of “grievance nursing” to be deplorabe bigotry, as well as the previous poster’s incorrect and bigoted attribution of lower class status to such efforts.

  78. 578

    RE: Blurtman @ 574

    Yes Blurtman:

    Dollars and Sense…Two incomes means federal tax bracket creep, a higher chance of one of the incomes getting laid off too….double the long-term disability planning too, like $2-8K/month per individual, $4-16K/mo….

  79. 579
    ruxpert says:

    more radio-theater for inauguration day ;-)
    Affecting ALL USA Real Estate! ?

    Start at 24 minute mark: https://www.americanmediaperiscope.net/making-sense-of-the-madness?wix-vod-video-id=ceec3b1b0c3c4eb297a395dfdc5c906f&wix-vod-comp-id=comp-kh29zk0r

  80. 580
    ruxpert says:

    fmr. asst. Sec. of Housing official Catherine Austin Fitts of Solari.com
    “That’s not a riot pattern that’s a real estate acquisition plan”
    https://fb.watch/38inSBt70E/

  81. 581
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 574
    Admittedly not a perfect comparison because this is specifically for new houses, but if you look at chart #2, you’ll see inflation adjusted price/psf has more or less trended in a range since 1973, (because that’s the timeframe this covers). The size factor is very significant.
    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-square-feet-larger-than-in-1973-and-living-space-per-person-has-nearly-doubled.

    Additionally, the local market carries an additional delta for having moved from backwater to metro of national significance.

    Grievance nursing is a behavior, not a person. The example I saw in post 564 worries victimhood based on a situation which has not existed, does not exist, and might never exist. This is entirely unhelpful. I do agree not to assume socioeconomic status for the maker.

  82. 582
  83. 583
    Erik says:

    By IssaquahResident @ 562:

    What are the thoughts on the new Biden stimulus bill? As I understand, it provides eviction ban extension till September and no new help for people with mortgages. Existing protections for mortgage payers expired on Dec. 31. Eric, is my understanding correct?
    Should we expect flood of listings?

    I can tell you what I think I know, but you are better off going to YouTube for information. I subscribe to some really sharp people on YouTube that tell me stuff and I regurgitate it on here regarding the government handouts. My daughter woke me up all night, so fact check me.

    Here is what I think, but you should verify on YouTube:

    FHA/VA/USDA- Apply forbearance ends Feb 28
    Fannie/Freddie- No deadline

    That’s just when you need to first apply. Once your in the system, you can run it for a year. If you are scared and you’ve been affected some way by covid, you should take forbearance. It’s basically free money.

    I don’t foresee a wave of foreclosures coming. Looking at the data, inventory is at all time lows and demand is high. In addition, the investors I follow and trust most don’t see foreclosures coming. When the rent evictions can be implemented, I believe a few renters will be forced out of good areas people want to live and into bad areas like Everett and Tacoma possibly dragging those prices down. I don’t invest in bad areas, so I’m not worried.

    Jay Powell and Janet Yellen are going to keep stimulus going to prop up the economy. I believe inflation will stay low for a few years because we’ll have a low velocity of money. People are staying home and are scared. Mortgage rates will stay low because inflation is low. I don’t see any alternative other than housing prices will go up. Then when inflation kicks in, that will push housing prices up. This is why people that work for money get poorer and investors get richer.

  84. 584
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 568
    I don’t like cordial, I like honesty. Rich enough to retire in 7 years with a family by getting raises and saving your paycheck? I’m starting to think you are Eastsider because that’s what dumb money would think is smart.

    Here are your 3 options:

    1. Leave my site and don’t come back(preferred)
    2. Change your name and comeback as an honest person
    3. Try to get someone else that didn’t read your lies or has low intelligence to believe you

    Investing in a well diversified 401k is what business owners tell employees to keep them poor so they stay poor and don’t leave.

    Either way, we are done. Don’t reply or comment about something I’ve said.

  85. 585
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 555
    I get it, and no judgment here. If I was in your position, I’d probably do the same thing. You are a healthy and fit person, and I’d expect you to handle whatever comes your way. Get the shot if it serves you.

    The guy that put a new septic in for me in Camano got covid. I asked him how covid was and he said he liked getting a week and a half off, but he did lose his sense of taste.

  86. 586
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 555
    I get it, and no judgment here. If I was in your position, I’d probably do the same thing. You are a healthy and fit person, and I’d expect you to handle whatever comes your way. Get the shot if it serves you.

    The guy that put a new septic in for me in Camano got covid. I asked him how covid was and he said he liked getting a week and a half off, but he did lose his sense of taste.

  87. 587
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 569
    Landlords with federally backed loans should be taking forbearance to plan for the Biden administration. At some point inflation will kick in and screw renters while landlords get richer. I’m not happy Biden is president, but he’s going to print a lot of money and make landlords richer in the long term, so I’ll prosper. It’s just not fair to people that work for money.

    I’m not a fan of Everett and I’ll never go back.

  88. 588
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 579

    Are RE Bubblers overlooking some issues?
    WARNING Signs The Housing Market In 2021 Is In BIG TROUBLE!
    Dec 22, 2020
    https://youtu.be/aHPLfNEZw5I

  89. 589

    RE: ruxpert @ 572
    NYC announced Today That its Killer Flu Lock Downs Ending to get the economy going again won’t happen until 2025

    Biden’s Legacy now…

    What effect this will have on Seattle Real Estate prices is still unknown….but not clear at all.

  90. 590
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 578 – Using primarily US census data:

    Year Median Family Income Median Family House 20% down payment/median fam income
    1960 $5,600 $11,900 42.5%
    1990 $29,943 $79,100 52.8%
    2020 $68,703 $327,100 95.2%

    Home affordability is dropping drammatically over time, in spite of an increase in the number of two wage earner families.

    The bigotry demonstrated when describing seeking equal justice as grievance nursing is a behavior.

    Regarding the license to claim that Biden will preferentially pay the mortgages of delinquent Black, Latino and Asian American mortgage holders, this is consistent with his comments:

    ““Our focus will be on small businesses on Main Street that aren’t wealthy and well-connected, that are facing real economic hardships through no fault of their own. Our priority will be Black, Latino, Asian, and Native American-owned small businesses, women-owned businesses, and finally having equal access to resources needed to reopen and rebuild.”

    Asian Americans comprise the most successful socioeconomic group in the USA. Latino is not a race of course, but a region or origin. There are Latin American countries that are whiter than the USA. And one group in particular seems to have been intentionally omitted from Biden’s teleprompter read remarks.

  91. 591
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 581:

    RE: OA @ 568
    I don’t like cordial, I like honesty. Rich enough to retire in 7 years with a family by getting raises and saving your paycheck? I’m starting to think you are Eastsider because that’s what dumb money would think is smart.

    Here are your 3 options:

    1. Leave my site and don’t come back(preferred)
    2. Change your name and comeback as an honest person
    3. Try to get someone else that didn’t read your lies or has low intelligence to believe you

    Investing in a well diversified 401k is what business owners tell employees to keep them poor so they stay poor and don’t leave.

    Either way, we are done. Don’t reply or comment about something I’ve said.

    Haha alright Mr. Honesty, be honest with yourself and next time don’t let some random guy on the internet make you bitter because of net worth. You’re the one that attacked me from the start by calling me a code monkey (even though I’m not) when I said I live on the eastside.

    I’ll let @the Tim decide who he doesn’t want on his blog, I’m not the loose cannon here. Most of us come here to learn a thing or two from people like Ardell about real estate, not to get investment advice from you. I made good financial choices when I was younger and don’t need to accelerate my net worth by borrowing debt like crazy to catch up. If you were secure in your strategy then you wouldn’t be constantly attacking anyone that has a different perspective.

    And yes, please IGNORE me going forward. This is a waste of time. I’ll add myself to the good number of people that scroll past your posts.

    Deuces!

  92. 592
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 587
    Home ownership is only slowly becoming less affordable. Down payment is a one time deal. At the same time, lower interest rates can support higher balances with less monthly cash flow. And going back to my previous post – it is only natural that you would expect to make a bigger down payment on a 2500sf house with 3 baths, than a 1250sf house with 1 bath. The equivalent of a 1960 median house costs quite a bit less than today’s median.

    If you want to crusade for equal justice, you are going to have to settle for actual unequal justice; not some nonexistent thing you fantasized. And there is clearly a lot of unequal justice you are willing to overlook. Recognizing the bigotry of your statement is not bigotry on my part. I’m a white guy; I started with nothing. But even then, I knew I had advantages. I didn’t win every time, but I had a lot of good cards. If society is less that way today, it is still weighted for white. If you don’t own a house, that’s not the reason.

  93. 593
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 586

    Howdy SWE,

    An Hour After Joe Biden Is Sworn In, WHO Admits Their Testing Grossly Overstates Individuals Testing Positive for COVID

    Surprise, Surprise – Literally one hour after Biden was sworn in, the World Health Organization admitted that PCR testing produces high amplification rates and results and a huge number of false positives.

    By Joe Hoft Jan 20, 2021 – 567 Comments
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/01/hour-joe-biden-sworn-admits-testing-grossly-overstates-individuals-testing-positive-covid/


    Antifa in Seattle and Portland Smash Property, Oppose Biden, Police: ‘We Are Ungovernable’
    January 21, 2021
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/antifa-in-seattle-and-portland-smash-property-oppose-biden-police-we-are-ungovernable_3665544.html?-1

    Biden/Trump – DemoRub Corruption/dysfunction ?
    Hopefully people are waking-up to demand accountability,
    if not merely for our children’s future & domestic tranquility;
    at least for our economy & real estate prices! ;-)

  94. 594

    RE: Erik @ 509
    11,000 high paid union jobs eliminated as Keystone Pipeline shut down during Full Production

    Watch the price of oil Erik….it drives food prices, almost entirely now [plastic containers]. This should be the knife in the back for many Killer Flu distressed restaurant owners on the brink in Seattle? Time will tell. Americans are a creature of habit Erik IMO, you get them shunning eating out and they never return?

    I sure hope it isn’t too late for the Killer Flu vaccine to reverse this programming or brainwashing on re-openning soon. I get food take-out a lot for volunteer charity and the customer flow is like an empty restaurant with 1-2 take-out cars with 1-2 employees working and a “HELP WANTED” sign on almost all of ’em too….IMO no one wants to work with an icky flu mask on all day, they’d rather stay home and not work. Am I wrong? I thank the ones working for their courage.

  95. 595
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 556
    Hey David, I signed up for MeetKevin’s stock investing course for $599. I like the class and have made a lot already by listening daily. I have no ties to this guy other than I’ve learned tons about investing by listening to this 28 year old kid with over $20M net worth.

    Previously you asked how to get the 15% off at lowes and I found the information in his course. Kevin says to get Pro pricing, by signing up for “Lowes for Pros.” which gets you 10% off you you sign up for his courses by using his course code. Then get the Lowes Amex business card and get 5% back for using the card. Then from points the card gives you when you pay it back, you get an additional 2% back.

    Step 1: Sign up for “Lowes for Pros”
    Step 2: Use Amex business card

    The downside is that you gotta buy what you want form Lowes online to get the full savings. Go to lowes website, find the item number and put that into the “Lowes for Pros” online account. Buy with the Amex business card. He said you can go into the store, pickup the item and scan with your phone, then tell customer service you ordered for pickup and you are picking it up and walk out with about 17% savings.

    I haven’t done it yet, but when i start my next remodel, i’ll try it.

    By the way, Kevin likes Disney stock too as a recovery stock. I’m all in Tesla with my real estate investment money and i’m riding it until I can buy more real estate. Right now i’m loading up on cash so I can buy more discount properties when I can get more loans. I want to keep the pedal to the metal until I get enough cash flow from properties with no mortgage to equal my current income. That’s the goal to get security. I just don’t want to have to depend on a job for money anymore.

  96. 596

    RE: Erik @ 503
    Very Open Minded Erik, You Look Both Ways Before Ya Cross the Street

    2.7 million are postponing mortgage payments during Killer Flu now…let’s see that’s roughly 27,000 in Wash St alone. Do we add 27000 to the homes listed total…the real number now? Lord only knows, MSM is clear as mud.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covids-financial-toll-mounts-as-homeowners-keep-postponing-mortgage-payments-11611493201

    How much delayed debt is this 27000 x [approx] $1M a unit= $2.7T in delayed debt in Wash St alone? Skewed listing numbers IOWs???? Sounds like you’re not alone Erik. I hope you’re right. Are we OVER-BUILDING homes now? The Tooth Fairy knows….LOL…is data analysis during Killer Flu a complete unknown now? Time will tell.

  97. 597

    RE: Erik @ 511

    Hey Erik, I Know You can Pull a Rabbit Out of Hat….You’ve proven it.

    But its the lemming uninformed investors that heading for the cliff of destruction…its “SCREWED” Millenials mostly now Erik…it reminds me of Bible History Philosophy, wide is the road to destruction and narrow is the road to salvation…

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/

  98. 598
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 590

    Subject: Calif. drops all virus curfews and stay at home orders

    Quoting robert mel from Chesterfield on 25 Jan 2021:

    What an amazing coincidence.

    https://newsadvance.com/business/california-lifts-virus-stay-at-home-orders-curfew-statewide/article_6a60b54a-85f0-5802-b63f-5f9407bb184e.html

    WHO woulda thunk? ;-)

  99. 599
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 594
    This will probably be the final and biggest bull run before the crash. Prices climb fastest before a crash, so be prepared to sell at the top. We’ve been studying these cycles for years, and it’s time to put the knowledge to work and cash in on the investment.

  100. 600
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 509:

    I suspect I’ll have time to refinance before rates go back up. I heard the banks aren’t doing cash out refi’s on investment properties though. I wasn’t planning to pull money out, but I thought it was interesting. If I want to pull money out, I’ll just have to get a HELOC.

    Anyone considering a refi or taking out a HELOC should be aware that these lien holders can go after you even after a foreclosure sale.

  101. 601
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 597
    We both know you have no idea what you’re talking about. Do you want me to elaborate or do you want me to just play along?

  102. 602
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 598

    Do your own research and/or seek advice from professional. Check with Kary if he is still around.

  103. 603
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 599
    Hahaha! Good one.

  104. 604
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 600 – Or read and understand your loan docs.

  105. 605

    RE: Erik @ 509

    LOL….Most Seattle Area Folks I Talk to Agree Now

    Its WTT [We the turds]….Our present agenda is not predictable now…the Listings don’t include Killer Flu mortgage forgiveness or tenant rent forgiveness…those “listed” data points disappeared along time ago when $270B went unpaid by home owners and tenants will allowed “unending delinquencies” masked by MSM and our Government in general. I’d wait until the inevitable MASS foreclosures hit later this year; after the COVID 19 relief bills and “bumbling”vaccine dispersion since jan 20, 2021, for re-opening America again [if ever now], maybe as late as 2025 NYC reports and IMO too. Erik, the teacher unions and hospital workers refusing to work in hazardous duty with flu masks at the same pay before the mask mandates is not something I’m making up [even the liberal Seattle Council favors $4/hr hazardous duty pay for Killer Flu masked workers by stimulus, I do too]…its a paradyme change. America is ‘historically” a nation of habits and we discovered eating out is a rip off versus making it home for 1/3rd the cost…so returning to normal is clear as mud now. Its too late to reset now? In their rush to exaggerate Killer Flu impacts on MSM for political gain they’ve shot themselves in the foot IMO. What good is unemployment extensions when all the take-out restaurants I see now have like 2 workers [a cook and 1 waitress] and one car in line for almost no business and help wanted signs galore, everyone I talk to agrees with me, its a reality we can’t overlook to make Seattle Real Estate look better. Check out Grubhub sites Erik…almost all the Seattle Area take out restaurants are closed for online orders…the harsh reality.

    I hope I’m wrong, am I?

  106. 606
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 601
    Hahahaha! Understand your loan docs, yah right.

    Let me explain this for you because you won’t ask and we keep going around and around. You don’t understand this and that’s why you won’t invest in real estate. This next paragraph could have made you millions and reduced your stress.

    Federally backed loans in Washington state are non-judicial. That generally means if you stop paying, the bank can come after the house and not the borrower. Read those last 2 sentences twice. Smart money takes advantage of that and gets rich. If you can buy zero down in Washington state, you can stop paying after closing and stay in the house possibly years without paying. One guy on this site bought many houses zero down and rented them 5 – 7 years without paying his mortgage. His credit was bad during that time so he went to the auction with the rent proceeds and paid cash for houses. It was brilliant. Now he doesn’t need to work for money any longer because the houses he paid cash for produce enough income for him to live.

    HELOC aka 2nd mortgage is not so forgiving, so those loans need to be used carefully with caution. I’m ultra conservative, so I have $400k I can take out and I don’t touch. I used $13k HELOC once to fix up a condo before selling when I was low on money, but I paid it back quickly. I’m not a big risk taker. I play it tight and have millions in Seattle real estate that just sits there appreciating. I don’t like to borrow money that I have to pay back, that’s why I own houses and condos in Seattle. It’s a low risk game of having my leasing agents send my accountant wife my tax information which she sends to our CPA. I play with my kids, eat, and work at my stress free government job. My problem is that I don’t live in Seattle anymore and that makes it difficult to buy more rentals there.

  107. 607
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 602
    I think the virus was pumped by the DNC to get Trump out. They did that, so now things will go back to normal soon. They got the bad orange man out, so they will open back up. California opened back up with record high covid rates a week after Biden took office.

    Jay Powell said today that the reason housing prices went up was because people were forced to stay home and last year, so they wanted more expensive houses and the price increase was an anomaly. I wonder why he said that? The fed chair doesn’t understand that when rates go down prices go up because people buy based on affordability? My guess is that housing prices keep going up. If the fed tries to raise rates, we’ll have another taper tantrum like 2018/19. If the fed messes up, I’m hoping they loosen lending standards so we can have another 2008 repeat. Then I can meet you at McDonald’s for coffee instead of working for money.

  108. 608
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 603

    The initial home mortgage is usually a non recourse loan. Not necessarily the case for refi and HELOCs. Again, read you loan docs or seek professional advice.

    How to Know if You Have a Non-Recourse Home Loan
    https://homeguides.sfgate.com/nonrecourse-home-loan-51630.html

    Even in non-recourse states, refinancing, second mortgages, and “cash out” transactions often create recourse loans.

  109. 609
    David says:

    I bought 2 shares of GameStop today and then sold for a $2 profit. Then went to eat Mexican to celebrate. We didn’t eat the free tortillas so I made my wife stuff them in her purse.

    By Erik @ 596:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 594
    This will probably be the final and biggest bull run before the crash. Prices climb fastest before a crash, so be prepared to sell at the top. We’ve been studying these cycles for years, and it’s time to put the knowledge to work and cash in on the investment.

  110. 610
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 606 – GME shows there is no requirement for prices and fundamentals to correlate. Subreddit SeattleREBets lol.

  111. 611
    David says:

    Actually GameStop is an absolute example of price reflecting demand. Short sellers PRE-sold 140% more shares of stock than existed. More shares needed to be bought than existed to correct the situation. Prices therefore went UP, UP , UP.

    By Eastsider @ 607:

    RE: David @ 606 – GME shows there is no requirement for prices and fundamentals to correlate. Subreddit SeattleREBets lol.

  112. 612
    formerSeattleite says:

    By Erik @ 596:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 594
    This will probably be the final and biggest bull run before the crash. Prices climb fastest before a crash, so be prepared to sell at the top. We’ve been studying these cycles for years, and it’s time to put the knowledge to work and cash in on the investment.

    Are you referring to stock valuations or real estate prices? (serious question. curious as to what you think) Asking as I am looking to purchase a home towards the end of this year.. wondering if that’s a wise move or not.

  113. 613

    Buying a house is like trying to buy toilet paper in April. There’s one pack of toilet paper on the shelf and 25 people are fighting to get it.

  114. 614

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 609
    “…King County’s executive wants to raise the expiring property tax levy rate by 35% to expand child care in King County and keep supporting early intervention programs for youth and families. Here’s what Dow Constantine’s plan would cost you and how it would work…”

    Read this today….if your investment is grabbing up toilet paper before the Killer Flu shutdowns….be ready for a bumpy ride. Toilet paper is plentiful and on sale again suddenly. Real estate near term trending is clear as fog. Buy in now, if it really makes ya happy. I don’t give investment advice with a Ouija Board…LOL…but I do wish everyone luck.

    I like that toilet paper example Ardelle….you made me smile this morning…

  115. 615
    Eastsider says:

    In April, people were hoarding toilet paper to sell on eBay for 10x profit. Sure some people fell for it but if you are patient/rational, you will not pay more than full price.

    If you are looking for a permanent place to live in, it won’t matter what price you pay today in 30 years. But make sure you can afford it.

    If you are buying an investment property, it doesn’t compute at these prices.

    Good luck!

  116. 616
    Blurtman says:

    Hey all,

    Is this what you got for question 3 on the Erik RE Millionaire at 40 course midterm? I need to ace the exam in order to get into the Marion Berry Beautician and RE Agent Training School, so appeciate your help.

    3. You have purchased a 3BR crapshack in Seattle for $769,000, putting 20% down. Please calculate the ROI on the purchased rental unit.

    Est. monthly cost including mortgage, property tax and insurance (Zillow): $3,377.
    Monthly property management fee (10% of rental income): $250.
    Monthly maintenance (1% of purchase price): $640.
    Monthly rental income: $2,500.

    Yearly loss on rental unit = $21,204.
    Yearly gain on rental unit price at 12.9%/year = $99,201.
    Unrealized profit: $77,977

    Renter subsidizes 2,500/3,377+250+640= 59% of annual asset cost.

    Exemplary home: 13703 Palatine Ave N, Seattle, WA 98133. Zillow data utilized above.

  117. 617
    wreckingbull says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 610:

    Buying a house is like trying to buy toilet paper in April. There’s one pack of toilet paper on the shelf and 25 people are fighting to get it.

    Renting a condo or apartment is like buying toilet paper in May, after the Costco procurement team struck back.

    https://i.redd.it/6u4erbzf4v061.jpg

    Seattle rents are now down 20% YOY. Probably 30% when incentives are accounted for.

    ‘Member what happened last time this imbalance existed? Pepperidge Fahm remembahs.

  118. 618
    David says:

    Does a Grizzly Bear wipe his butt in the woods? Nope. Toilet paper is an option that us woodland folk don’t need.

    By softwarengineer @ 611:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 609
    “…King County’s executive wants to raise the expiring property tax levy rate by 35% to expand child care in King County and keep supporting early intervention programs for youth and families. Here’s what Dow Constantine’s plan would cost you and how it would work…”

    Read this today….if your investment is grabbing up toilet paper before the Killer Flu shutdowns….be ready for a bumpy ride.

  119. 619

    I Tried to See a Clear Way Out of Killer Flu Public School and Restaurant Shutdowns In King County Now

    Check it out yourself….the re-openning plan in Wash St is clear as mud. I wish I could help the real estate futures but there is no clear Google Search answers now….check it out yourself…have any of you read or seen “the Fog” by Stephen King…it reminds me predicting Killer Flu Era investments now.

  120. 620

    My Investment Advice for 2121

    Don’t assume the establishment history of the past applies to the present….I’d wait like 6 months a year to get a better prediction vector. Its a wild year with the rich elite smirking at us from their “high horse” stock market bias an other corruptions, as we eat cake.

  121. 621
    Mikal says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 613 – I own 4 units and average next to nothing on maintenance. When the fridge breaks I buy a new one. In thirty years I have had to do $10,000 remodels once to all and 2 have been done twice. The other two are on tap. There are literally years where I have had to replace a light fixture. Where in god’s name did some fool come up with $640 a month for maintenance? No property management fee either. No, I wouldn’t be interested in buying another rental with the prices being so high, but your numbers are wacked.

  122. 622

    RE: wreckingbull @ 614

    My brain is in Kirkland-Redmond these days. Not Seattle. Sorry for the confusion. It was a bit of a vent. :)

  123. 623
    Eastsider says:

    By Mikal @ 618:

    I own 4 units and average next to nothing on maintenance. When the fridge breaks I buy a new one. In thirty years I have had to do $10,000 remodels once to all and 2 have been done twice. The other two are on tap. There are literally years where I have had to replace a light fixture. Where in god’s name did some fool come up with $640 a month for maintenance? No property management fee either. No, I wouldn’t be interested in buying another rental with the prices being so high, but your numbers are wacked.

    A homeowner would have spent far more than $10k (like $100k’s) in 30 years on upkeep and repairs. A condo owner would have spent $5k-$10k/yr on HOA and ‘special assessment’ every other decade. It takes a special kind of tenant to want to live at your place. Just sayin’

  124. 624
    Erik says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 609
    You should buy now.
    -Inventory is at all time lows, which means we will still have to go through hyper-supply before this thing blows. That will take years of price appreciation to get through expansion and then hyper-supply.
    -Inflation is going to run above average, making appreciating assets such as houses more expensive
    -Liberal president, which boosts liberal city prices such as Seattle.
    -Lending standards could loosen again and we could have a huge boom because we are running out of bullets.

    Asset or liability, it doesn’t matter. You just need to be invested into the Seattle market because you make your money in market appreciation. The more you have in, the more you stand to make. I don’t know if Seattle prices will ever be this low again? I’m selling nothing and I don’t work in the real estate industry. I’m just looking at the housing market as a whole and giving you my opinion.

  125. 625
    Erik says:

    RE: Mikal @ 618
    I get fully managed everything, even on my condos. I just do the purchase, remodel, and hand it off. I think it’s worth not worrying about anything in exchange for a small piece of the rent.

    I think prices are low right now. I would guess you think prices are high because you bought Seattle real estate in 1991 when it was real cheap. Seattle is no longer a cheap city, it changed.

  126. 626
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 613
    That’s totally how it works. Then eventually rents go up and that loss get’s narrower and narrower. Then you can eventually sell a unit and pay another unit off so you get positive cash flow into your pocket every month. Then keep doing more of that until you have enough passive income to relax as little. I imagine if you had 3 paid off and collected that $5000/mo passive income, you could accelerate your wealth building rate. That additional passive monthly income can be put into more houses or stocks every month. It’s like sending your poor brother to work and stealing his paychecks when they get home.

  127. 627
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 621:

    I’m selling nothing and I don’t work in the real estate industry. I’m just looking at the housing market as a whole and giving you my opinion.

    This. From someone who got rid of some of his holding recently.

    The GME hedgies went on TV claiming they were out of their short positions. Makes one wonder who the current shorts are.

  128. 628
    Eastsider says:

    I think prices are low right now. I would guess you think prices are high because you bought GME stock in 2020 when it was real cheap. GME is no longer a cheap stock, it changed.

    Sorry Erik, can’t help to have some fun this morning.

  129. 629
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 623 – Sure, turn passive rental income into a RE annuity stream of sorts. But until you get there, where your rental units are leveraged and unit price appreciation resides as unrealized earnings, liquidity is the key in a market where rent payments do not cover mortgage payments and operating costs. And you can get liquid by tapping equity.

    With regards to the offered example, the unrealized profit being even larger if you perform your own property management and have lower than described maintence costs, as long as RE prices continue upwards, or at least stay flat after the run-up from your purchase price, you have an emergency cushion to take care of unanticipated expenses, like an evicition moratorium and sanctioned non-payment of rent.

    But if RE prices tank below your initial purchase price, then cashing out staunches the red ink flow, but results in a loss of part or all of your down payment. A cash reserve can enable a longer term hold. But the longer your holding time period per unit has been in an up market, the longer you can weather a down market, including tapping the substantial but dwindlng equity if need be. Interesting game, but if you enter anew right at the cusp of a down RE market, you better have cash or other sources of liquidity.

  130. 630
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 624
    Huh? I sold a condo in 2019 because I could double the price I bought it for and condos on the water seem risky. I bought 2 houses in 2019 that have gone up a lot in value as well that I’m holding. I’m holding my condos until I can pay them off with cash, then I’ll cash flow them forever.

  131. 631
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 625
    I’m holding all Tesla stock for my real estate investment money. It’s done well for me and I think there is more to be seen. I don’t gamble, I invest.

  132. 632
    Eastsider says:

    “I don’t gamble, I invest.”

    Leverage other people’s money to buy more RE than you can stomach.

    Walk away when investment fails.

    Evade loan payments with mortgage moratorium.

    Tesla, the 5th largest company behind AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL.

    “Investments”… Hmm.

  133. 633
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 629
    That’s smart money. Dumb money adds earned money to 401k and IRA. I add 20% to my 401k and I have Roth and Traditional IRAs. My wife has 529 plans for the kids just in case. Real estate investing was my side hustle that’s turned out to be worth a lot more than diversifying my paycheck with index funds in a 401k and I’m spreading the word. You won’t admit you took the dumb money way, so you keep pushing your beliefs. It’s an ego thing I’m sure.

    Learn, modify your behavior, and prosper. Coming on here and trying to prove your way is right won’t make you more money. You have to change your behavior and invest like smart money invests.

  134. 634
    Mikal says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 620 – I’m charging more than 2000 per unit so I’m getting a special kind of renter. Just sayin. I own two other houses as well. No homeowner spends 10,000 a year on maintenance unless they are an idiot.

  135. 635
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Mikal @ 631 – A simple google search of “home maintenance cost per year” returns many results. Most state that you can expect to spend at least 1% on home maintenance a year. I agree with that assessment. Most HOAs also aim to collect 1% a year from condo owners. The ‘excess’ will go into a reserve fund because you will need it when you replace the roof, paint the exterior, replace the furnace, water tank, etc.

    To claim that you spend “next to nothing on maintenance” and maybe $10k over 3 decades on a remodel is a bit of a stretch.

  136. 636
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 630 – As I have previously pointed out, the biggest flaw in your approach is overleverage. At these elevated prices, you run the risk of losing your down payments and properties to the bank if we enter a severe recession. Many landlords with multiple properties lost them all in the last housing crash. If your properties don’t cashflow, you run the risk of losing them all.

  137. 637
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 633
    Don’t you worry about me, I could negative cash flow for 20 years and still be okay.

    Market is lowest inventory ever, prices will go up.

  138. 638
    Mikal says:

    By Eastsider @ 632:

    RE: Mikal @ 631 – A simple google search of “home maintenance cost per year” returns many results. Most state that you can expect to spend at least 1% on home maintenance a year. I agree with that assessment. Most HOAs also aim to collect 1% a year from condo owners. The ‘excess’ will go into a reserve fund because you will need it when you replace the roof, paint the exterior, replace the furnace, water tank, etc.

    To claim that you spend “next to nothing on maintenance” and maybe $10k over 3 decades on a remodel is a bit of a stretch.

    I didn’t say that. I have had replace both roofs at 6500 each, had a foundation poured under one at 12000, and had both resided about 20,000 each. But the plumbing and electrical are solid and I’m making 6500 a month profit and haven’t spent much beyond those things and the occasional floor replacement and paint at this point. Labor is free for the painting. There is money in it regardless of what you think or aren’t thinking.

  139. 639
    Erik says:

    RE: Mikal @ 635
    Don’t let Eastsider bother you. He is someone that is jealous of people that invest in real estate. Now he’s jealous and tries to prove to himself that he made the right decision.

    I’ve been buying and selling and renting out units in Seattle for little while, but you’ve been in the game 30 years and i’m sure you are in a great financial position because of it. You are the smart one and you nailed it. I’m sure you have a nice steady stream of cash every month coming in and a high net worth. I want to be in your position someday. Great job!

  140. 640
    SeaH says:

    I think Eric’s point is you got to take risks with facts and hedges .

    You need to scale your capitol successfully . You can’t wait til you’re 65… to use your Roth /brokerage that has suffficient returns . Think of the years wasted away from opportunity cost .

    By Erik @ 630:

    RE: Eastsider @ 629
    That’s smart money. Dumb money adds earned money to 401k and IRA. I add 20% to my 401k and I have Roth and Traditional IRAs. My wife has 529 plans for the kids just in case. Real estate investing was my side hustle that’s turned out to be worth a lot more than diversifying my paycheck with index funds in a 401k and I’m spreading the word. You won’t admit you took the dumb money way, so you keep pushing your beliefs. It’s an ego thing I’m sure.

    Learn, modify your behavior, and prosper. Coming on here and trying to prove your way is right won’t make you more money. You have to change your behavior and invest like smart money invests.

  141. 641
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 626
    You get it, I can tell. If someone wanted to start out and didn’t have cash, they could live somewhere, make repairs. and sell it a few years for a profit. Starting is the hard part. Most books tell people to start buying real estate with a positive cash flow. That may work, but not in Seattle or Samammish and I’d be too stressed out with no money.

    Here’s a process that could work:

    1. Buy home to fix and sell for profit
    2. Buy as many rentals as you can with those profits
    3: Sell another unit so you have lots of cash
    4. Buy more units with the profits
    5. Play stock market/forbearance to build cash
    6. Keep buying easy rentals
    7. Sell half and pay half off

    At that point you are either a free man or close to it. You can still add to your retirement if you want, but at some point, it won’t make sense because the real estate will have grown exponentially faster than saving into a 401k. You can put earned income into a slow growth pot or a fast growth pot.

  142. 642
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 638:

    Here’s a process that could work:

    1. Buy home to fix and sell for profit
    2. Buy as many rentals as you can with those profits
    3: Sell another unit so you have lots of cash
    4. Buy more units with the profits
    5. Play stock market/forbearance to build cash
    6. Keep buying easy rentals
    7. Sell half and pay half off

    At that point you are either a free man or close to it. You can still add to your retirement if you want, but at some point, it won’t make sense because the real estate will have grown exponentially faster than saving into a 401k. You can put earned income into a slow growth pot or a fast growth pot.

    Doesn’t it sound like we are in a bubble? Erik is giving ‘free’ advice to anyone who will listen. His basic assumption is asset price appreciations will always outpace costs, despite negative cashflow. Leverage to the max. And if you can’t cashflow, there is always forbearance and walking away. Good luck with that business plan. Chances are it will be an expensive ‘free’ lesson from someone you come across on the Internet.

  143. 643

    “…When The Killer Flu Eviction Ban Nearly a year after Gov. Jay Inslee stopped evictions for failure to pay during the pandemic, lawmakers now find themselves attempting to unwind an experiment of their own making. Both Republicans and Democrats are looking for way to end the moratorium while staving off what some predict could be a “tsunami” of evictions once it is lifted. Read more.Fog Clears This Year From Seattle Times This Morning…”

    Its a new paradyme in inaccurate Seattle Listing current counts to date [without foreclosures] home buying and its a mess too. Biden wants to extend the eviction ban until Sep 2121, lets see if he’s got the Congress/Senate votes by the end of this year to pass that COVID Spendulus $2T pipe dream, after the eviction ban ends? LOL…it is a complete mess and political masking is useless now. Be an ostridge and stick your head in the sand and pretend it just ain’t true…LOL

  144. 644
    N says:

    @ Tim – The redfin feed of hourly inventory doesn’t seem to be working.

  145. 645
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 639
    People have been calling me a bubble pusher since 2015 when I was buying and making money. You can believe whatever you want, I don’t feel like spending time trying to help someone that doesn’t think they need help. I prefer to spend my time growing rich.

    I have a computer question and not a real estate question, which may be your wheelhouse. Anywho, do you know how Tim gets the inventory number from Redfin for King County? How do I get the inventory for an area in Redfin? I see Median Price, # of homes sold, and Days on Market. It would be great to get an Inventory tracker on my desktop.

  146. 646

    RE: Erik @ 642
    I Predict You Won’t Need an Inventory Tracker if an avalanche of foreclosures crashes down Killer Flu mountain due to mortgage and rental eviction bans ending soon, soon at a theater near you?

    Do you really believe that $2T Biden stimulus extension of eviction bans will pass Congress/Senate in 2121? I don’t.

  147. 647
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 633 – I sympathasize with the sentiment, and there can be danger in overly greedy practitioners trying to get rich too quickly. But as RE holding time increases in an increasing price environment, the accumulating unrealized capital gains provides a bigger and bigger cushion against cash flow negativity. A cautious approach starting out would be to buy one rental unit, and in a market where asset prices continue to increase over the long run, to build up that capital gain cushion, and even realize the gain, using the winnings to then buy a few more properties, but leaving enough on the side as insurance. Not having sufficient liquidity, either due to insufficient savings, insufficient earnings from one’s day job, or a drammatic loss across the board in equity in the multiple properties thereby ruling out gaining liquidity from the realization of any capital gain, would be very problematic.

  148. 648
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 643
    The Senate is Democrat majority, so there would have to be a turd in the punch bowl in order for the stimulus to not pass. Plus, there are Republicans that said they will vote to pass stimulus I’ve heard. The stimulus bill should likely pass at 51%.

    I don’t believe eviction bans will cause foreclosures. All landlords with federally backed mortgages can get forbearance for a year and the remainder of rentals are owned by wealthy land barons that own their rentals outright. Wealthy people that own real estate without a mortgage are the people screaming fake news about a foreclosure wave coming because some aren’t collecting rent. They are making up stories to try and change the rules because they feel cheated. People with federally backed mortgages prospered greatly from this recession.

  149. 649
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Erik @ 645

    They need more than a 51% “simple majority” in the Senate. They need a 60 vote “supermajority” for it to pass.

    I agree that tenant issues should not result in more foreclosures. I think it will result in more homeless people. It’s hard to imagine ALL Landlords being allowed to evict all of a sudden on the same day. Think about that. If someone hasn’t paid their rent for 6 months to a year, I doubt they will be able to secure a new rental after evicted.

    Foreclosures will likely be some all at once because of the foreclosure moratoriums same as tenant eviction moratoriums. But the cause of them won’t be tenant oriented. Just clearing out the backlog.

  150. 650
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 644 – Nobody knows when a correction when come. Basic P&L math does not support investing in rental properties at these prices. Many (leveraged) speculators will lose their properties in the next downturn. This is a foregone conclusion.

  151. 651
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 646
    Hey Ardell, it’s always nice to hear from you. Here is the first thing that popped up when I searched, “How to pass in Senate:”
    “It really is worth being specific on this: It does not take 60 votes to pass an ordinary bill in the Senate; it takes a majority of the senators voting. If everyone is present, it takes 51 votes, or 50 votes if the vice president votes to break the tie.”

    I believe this is why the Georgia Runoff was such a big deal. Democrats won both seats and got their 50% Democratic Senator ratio. Now Kamala Harris will be the tie breaker, whom will obviously vote with the Democrats. Democrats can pass what they want right now. It will probably go like this, “If you vote for my homeless housing bill, I’ll vote for your working male tax.” I can feel it coming.

    https://www.bing.com/newtabredir?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffair.org%2Funcategorized%2Fhow-many-votes-does-it-take-to-pass-a-senate-bill%2F

    And that also supports what I’ve been hearing about how Mitch McConnell threatening to fillabuster all progress if Democrats use the 51% vote option.

    I’ve only really been interested in politics since Trump took office, so I could be wrong, but that’s what I see. Democrats have control of House, Senate, and Executive branch. If Joe Biden wants something, he just asks his group of friends at the House to propose a bill. Then the Senate vote ties 50/50. Then Kamala breaks the tie. Democrats have a lot of power right now.

  152. 652
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 647
    So you don’t believe we have to be in hyper-supply before we have a housing downturn? You think the housing market will crash with under 1000 houses for sale? It’s all about supply and demand, it’s that simple. I argued this with Justme all the time that the housing market does not follow the stock market. The housing market only really follows the stock market in a deleveraging, which I don’t see happening. That’s why the economy and stock market crashed and housing prices went up. Now we are on our way up at least another few years before a deleveraging. These housing bubbles appreciate faster at the end before a big housing bust, so I want to be holding some real estate for that final boom so I can sell at the top and start paying some of these condos off. We need the euphoria part of this bubble to take place, so people really start overpaying for houses again like 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007.

  153. 653
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 649 – I think Eastsider has missed out on the fact that inflation has irreversibly moved housing prices to the right. From now on, renting will be the majority style of ownership.

    The Government has lied about inflation. The economic model going forward is going to look more like pre-1900s America.

    The Government’s immigration policies will:

    1) Neuter the average American’s ability to ever progress beyond the lowest common denominator. See California which has rapidly turned into a third-world country. Cuba looked like a real country until the buildings and cars finally deteriorated.

    2) Make Black people go extinct and with an inability to create a race-theory to leverage against the Latino population.

  154. 654
    David says:

    Florida Groundhog says there WILL be six more hours of Winter.

  155. 655
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 649
    Your hyper-supply theory is fine. However, the biggest elephant in the room today is interest rate. If interest rate goes up, housing will go down. The 2018 decline was triggered by interest rate, not hyper supply.

    I’m not predicting direction. But at these prices it is more speculation than investment. You could justify RE investment in 2010-2014. But not today.

    P.s. I agree with David that we are becoming a renter society. I don’t see the trend changing unless real effort is put into increasing workers wages through policy (not by raising min wage though).

  156. 656
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 652
    It’s not my theory, it’s basic economics. Interest is at the bottom, but that’s not the last bullet. The next step is to print more money. Then loosen lending and then a major crash. That will take years. During that time, prices could double again, and it’s worth owning more real estate. There could be another bear market in there, but we have a ways before a crash.

  157. 657
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 653:

    That will take years.

    We are years into this. There is a zero bound on interest rate. Effective Fed Funds rate today is at 0.09%.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

    During that time, prices could double again, and it’s worth owning more real estate. There could be another bear market in there, but we have a ways before a crash.

    IMHO that’s wishful thinking.

  158. 658
    formerSeattleite says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 646:

    RE: Erik @ 645

    They need more than a 51% “simple majority” in the Senate. They need a 60 vote “supermajority” for it to pass.

    I agree that tenant issues should not result in more foreclosures. I think it will result in more homeless people. It’s hard to imagine ALL Landlords being allowed to evict all of a sudden on the same day. Think about that. If someone hasn’t paid their rent for 6 months to a year, I doubt they will be able to secure a new rental after evicted.

    Foreclosures will likely be some all at once because of the foreclosure moratoriums same as tenant eviction moratoriums. But the cause of them won’t be tenant oriented. Just clearing out the backlog.

    Under budget reconciliation, which can be used once a year, all you need is 51 votes. Joe Manchin is the wild card though… The question is, can liberals put enough pressure on him to vote for the bill? Personally, I think they can. But right now, all the things Joe is “saying” is leaning towards not passing. But I think he will eventually cave; he’ll want to show he ‘fought.’

    ***Edit: Looks like he already caved, lol.

  159. 659
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: Erik @ 621

    Thank you for your thoughts Eric.

  160. 660
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 643

    As someone who is invested in stocks, for the stock market’s sake, I hope you’re wrong :). Market has already priced in the bill passing. We could see a 5-10% correction if the bill doesn’t pass. (My guess)

  161. 661

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 655

    Thank you. I am seeing Biden considering the one time per year only “budget reconciliation” method. But it’s pretty early in his Presidency to use that one up. So far he doesn’t appear to be strongly considering it, but I think that is why the Republicans are down at 1/3rd the $ on their proposal. They want low OR make him use up his once per year budget reconciliation card deeming it a win either way.

    I’d vote for his going forward with the budget reconciliation win as during the First 100 days is likely best. But not seeing a strong push in that direction yet. I think they are still hoping to get the 60 votes by getting a bit closer together on the Bill.

    I think they were going with the Ask 2X what you want so that when they agree to half you get what you want. They didn’t play. Not yet anyway.

  162. 662

    RE: Erik @ 648

    It depends what they are voting about as to whether they need a simple majority or a supermajority. For this issue they need a supermajority of 60 vs 51 UNLESS they play and use up their one time per year “Budget Reconciliation” option. We have only had that option since 1974 and I’m not sure it would hold up for a budget measure of this magnitude. The limitations on when they can and can’t invoke the one time per year exception and go with 51 votes is vague enough to maybe get through, but I think it’s a last resort.

    They NEED 60…51 using Budget Reconciliation is a possible workaround.

  163. 663
    Blurtman says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 655 – Biden has put the kibosh on Trump’s executive order that lowered the price on the EpiPen, as well as insulin and other prescription drugs. Manchin’s daughter runs the EpiPen company, which had been accused of price gouging. That is how Joe rolls, ya know.

  164. 664
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 659
    Right, that’s what I’m saying, Democrats can ram this thing down Republican’s throats, and they most likely will. They will bail out failing blue cities in the process. No need for 60%. Democrats will pretend to use the 60% and then create panic via fake news and go straight to the 51% nuclear process.

    If/when Democrats do this, the whole work together and heal Biden message will be a bunch of BS as I already know it is.

  165. 665
    Brianna says:

    “There are 2.7 million U.S. homeowners in mortgage forbearance plans at the moment, which represents 5.38% of loan servicers’ portfolio volume, per the latest weekly report from the MBA.”

    https://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/valon-loan-servicer-cusp-of-another-foreclosure-crisis/

  166. 666
    ruxpert says:

    Peter Schiff before & re: 2008 Crash
    https://youtu.be/sgRGBNekFIw?t=154

  167. 667
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 663

    Thanks for the Schiff video link, I enjoyed it. It’s hilarious that they laughed him out of the room, the only guy speaking truth. I think Schiff has a lot to offer today… he’s prediction for high inflation is probably a little early/hyperbolic, but in general he is on point.

  168. 668
    ruxpert says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 664

    Hi,
    I certainly don’t know when/if hyperinflation is coming, and if so to whom such will more scold.
    What most concerns me is that a crisis is coming due to a corrupt / inefficient system.
    ‘Smooth sailing’ seems less likely than ‘crisis coming’.
    I would like to best prepare for such.
    Do you have any helpful ideas, to avert disaster, in a micro-context if not the macro?

    btw, what do you think about stagflation ?

  169. 669
  170. 670
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 663
    Peter Schiff moved out of the country to run from the inflation that’s coming. I’m staying put because I think it’s a great opportunity to buy more houses. When inflation starts to really kick in, I plan to sell some to pay others off. I think we have at least 2 more years for inflation really starts making houses way more expensive. Bring it on baby! It’s getting about time for me to get out of this rat race.

  171. 671
    David says:

    By Erik @ 667:

    RE: ruxpert @ 663
    Peter Schiff moved out of the country to run from the inflation that’s coming. I’m staying put because I think it’s a great opportunity to buy more houses. When inflation starts to really kick in, I plan to sell some to pay others off. I think we have at least 2 more years for inflation really starts making houses way more expensive. Bring it on baby! It’s getting about time for me to get out of this rat race.

    Where will you go?

  172. 672
    David says:

    By disasteraverted @ 664:

    RE: ruxpert @ 663

    Thanks for the Schiff video link, I enjoyed it. It’s hilarious that they laughed him out of the room, the only guy speaking truth. I think Schiff has a lot to offer today… he’s prediction for high inflation is probably a little early/hyperbolic, but in general he is on point.

    We’re in hyper-inflation now. Housing prices are sky high, stocks are sky high, etc. Can someone please show me something essential that is not sky high?

  173. 673
    David says:

    Peter Schiff’s funds are very very heavy on GOLD. He is a huge gold guy and if you look at his funds’ management fees they are substantial including redemption fees all totaling about 1.5%. (Seriously).

    Schiff is a capital preservation focused guy except you’ll be giving 0.85% to him every year which is a humongous amount on a compounding basis IMO.

    For the first time in 30 years I have sold every single S&P 500 Index Fund, sold QQQ and put almost all of my money into:

    1) BRK/B (perhaps short term though) (Berkshire Hathaway)
    2) BK (Bank of New York Mellon)

    And by substantial I mean $Ms. Maybe I’m an idiot.

  174. 674
    disasteraverted says:

    By ruxpert @ 665:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 664

    Hi,
    I certainly don’t know when/if hyperinflation is coming, and if so to whom such will more scold.
    What most concerns me is that a crisis is coming due to a corrupt / inefficient system.
    ‘Smooth sailing’ seems less likely than ‘crisis coming’.
    I would like to best prepare for such.
    Do you have any helpful ideas, to avert disaster, in a micro-context if not the macro?

    btw, what do you think about stagflation ?

    Haha, my moniker here is something acquired as a bit of a joke. I work in IT/Operations or whatever you want to call it these days. Thus, unfortunately, my expertise is in avoiding technological disasters not real human ones. I do think there is much human suffering coming.

    RE: stagflation, I’m not old enough to remember the last go around, but it certainly seems that’s what we are headed towards. Maybe the Seattle techies will be insulated from it, though, I guess this is what they are calling the “K shaped recovery”.

  175. 675
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 667
    Yes inflation will be a boon for those who own real assets… I’m trying to get some more in my hands with a low APR.

    I know he moved to PR, but how does that help with inflation? They use the USD there, no? I thought lower taxes was his game there…

  176. 676
    disasteraverted says:

    By David @ 669:

    By disasteraverted @ 664:

    RE: ruxpert @ 663

    Thanks for the Schiff video link, I enjoyed it. It’s hilarious that they laughed him out of the room, the only guy speaking truth. I think Schiff has a lot to offer today… he’s prediction for high inflation is probably a little early/hyperbolic, but in general he is on point.

    We’re in hyper-inflation now. Housing prices are sky high, stocks are sky high, etc. Can someone please show me something essential that is not sky high?

    Well, rents are down? You are right that real inflation is up a lot and can only go higher, but I guess the “hyper” part seems just a bit too far for me at the moment. No doubt we’ll get there.

    Both stocks and home prices are sky high mainly due to ultra low interest rates, IMO. Also, insanely low home inventory.

    That said, have you been to McDonalds lately? I hate going there, but I’m shocked every-time that the bill comes out to about $10 a person. I thought that was cheap fast food (certainly tastes like it)?

    Apparently a Big Mac was $3.58 in 12/2009 and is $5.66 today (12/2020). That’s over 5% a year if I did my math correctly. Of course it seems even worse in Seattle, maybe the $15 min wage thing.

    https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index

  177. 677
    disasteraverted says:

    By David @ 670:

    Peter Schiff’s funds are very very heavy on GOLD. He is a huge gold guy and if you look at his funds’ management fees they are substantial including redemption fees all totaling about 1.5%. (Seriously).

    Schiff is a capital preservation focused guy except you’ll be giving 0.85% to him every year which is a humongous amount on a compounding basis IMO.

    For the first time in 30 years I have sold every single S&P 500 Index Fund, sold QQQ and put almost all of my money into:

    1) BRK/B (perhaps short term though) (Berkshire Hathaway)
    2) BK (Bank of New York Mellon)

    And by substantial I mean $Ms. Maybe I’m an idiot.

    RE: David @ 670

    Yes his fees are high, I do not use his services. I did put some of my retirement into GLD, and am overweight international (~60/40 and thinking of going further).

    I wish you luck. That seems a lot to hold in two stocks, although BRK is probably a good long term bet. I’m sure Buffet is thinking about how to avoid/take advantage of inflation. Why BK?

    I do feel like S&P and other indexes are too heavily weighted toward tech. It seems ludicrous, and against diversification, to buy the S&P 500 with 7% Apple (2% TSLA, a scam, IMHO).

  178. 678
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 668
    I am dreaming a bit, retirement is probably a long ways away for me.

  179. 679
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 672
    Yes, grab some property now and then sell it at the top. Even if you gotta take a loss on it in the beginning, this seems like a great market to ride up and sell at the top.

    I admittedly don’t know that much about how inflation works between us and other countries. I just know if you add more money to the money supply, the prices of goods and services will go up accordingly. I know nothing about taxes and the currency of Puerto Rico.

  180. 680
    don says:

    Puerto Rico?
    Out of the frying pan and into the fire.
    Debt and natural disaster are tearing the place apart, and no one cares to help.
    You’re not talking about a couple helpings of broccoli.

  181. 681
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 675

    Ha, it feels like a top in the condo market where I own south of Seattle. I want to sell now and roll it into a SFH. Condos will likely be hit hard when the tide turns, but then again what are all the younger kids going to be able to afford?

  182. 682
    David says:

    By disasteraverted @ 673:

    By David @ 670:

    Peter Schiff’s funds are very very heavy on GOLD. He is a huge gold guy and if you look at his funds’ management fees they are substantial including redemption fees all totaling about 1.5%. (Seriously).

    Schiff is a capital preservation focused guy except you’ll be giving 0.85% to him every year which is a humongous amount on a compounding basis IMO.

    For the first time in 30 years I have sold every single S&P 500 Index Fund, sold QQQ and put almost all of my money into:

    1) BRK/B (perhaps short term though) (Berkshire Hathaway)
    2) BK (Bank of New York Mellon)

    And by substantial I mean $Ms. Maybe I’m an idiot.

    RE: David @ 670

    Why BK?

    .

    BK:

    1) $40T under custody
    2) $2T under management
    3) Steady rise in assets
    3) BK is a bank of banks
    4) Beaten down stock price.

    I’m monitoring their ‘wokeness’ as a barometer to sell though.

  183. 683

    Great Opinions All

    Have ya all done your federal taxes for 2020 yet??? I just mailed my 1040 in and studied the Instruction Book yesterday….some BIG changes from 2019 from my periscope:

    The Stimulus checks are not on your W-2 or 1099 to the IRS; IOWs they aren’t reported as income. Virtual Money [Bitcoins I believe] is now tracked on 1040; can’t legally hide it from the IRS anymore. Social Security work sheets for reported SS income decreases were eliminated and replaced with “ambiguous” other pension income ill-defined too for reductions [tax deductible portion] …tax accountants are useless in this case too, read it. I got mine done [IRS will correct it if its wrong, so not to worry and paying the tax companies to do your taxes wrong won’t help either…a waste of money].

    Did ya know single seniors get a larger “single” standard deduction? Its hidden in the instruction booklet folks…..I bet most missed it.

    MM interest income decreased about 60% in 2020 from 2019….its bad news but good news for taxes….bad news for debt gouging inflations, especially as food sky-rockets in plastic container oil based products containers, the food inside the “oil based” plastics is essentially free. Climate Change CO2 going down in 2020, the ChiComs create most of the greenhouse gas anyway, no matter lies what Paris Accord tells ya. A mess IOWs…

    Do your taxes and tell me what changes affected your 2020 federal taxes? I raised my pension 1099 tax deduction by $40/mo today for 2121. Did you have to too??? Taxes and death, both inevitable.

  184. 684
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: David @ 677

    Best of luck on BK. I’m always down for a stock pick, I’ll add it to my research list. Seems it might be worth 10% of my “I probably won’t need it for a few years” fund that’s currently in short term bonds earning a whopping 2.5-3% and declining.

  185. 685
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 678

    I’ve had some cryptocurrency since 2017 or so and have reported those earnings/losses each year. It wasn’t legal to hide from 2017-2020, just maybe you had plausible deniability to say “oh, I didn’t know…” if you filed your own taxes, but even then I doubt it. It went on form 8894, “Sales and Other Dispositions of Capital Assets”.

    I run a business so I never do my own taxes, it was part of the standard CPA questionnaire for the past few years.

  186. 686
    disasteraverted says:

    @ardell

    I’ve seen a few open houses listed in King County for this weekend, is that an official thing that open houses are allowed again? Not sure if that’s good or bad for buyers like me.

  187. 687
    Mikal says:

    RE: Brianna @ 662 – I have friends that are on mortgage forbearance that are still working and can afford to pay that aren’t. There are a lot of people in this country that kick the debt can down the road as often as they can. My guess is you can take out more than half of that number… maybe more, as houses that won’t be foreclosed on.

  188. 688
    Erik says:

    RE: Mikal @ 682
    All the real estate investing gurus on YouTube tell amateur subscribers to take mortgage forbearance so they can buy more real estate later. The more real estate you control, the wealthier you become.

  189. 689
    OA says:

    By David @ 670:

    Peter Schiff’s funds are very very heavy on GOLD. He is a huge gold guy and if you look at his funds’ management fees they are substantial including redemption fees all totaling about 1.5%. (Seriously).

    Schiff is a capital preservation focused guy except you’ll be giving 0.85% to him every year which is a humongous amount on a compounding basis IMO.

    For the first time in 30 years I have sold every single S&P 500 Index Fund, sold QQQ and put almost all of my money into:

    1) BRK/B (perhaps short term though) (Berkshire Hathaway)
    2) BK (Bank of New York Mellon)

    And by substantial I mean $Ms. Maybe I’m an idiot.

    That’s interesting, looks like you’ve had plenty of conviction to do that if you sold all of it. I’m guessing this was in your retirement accounts (401k/IRA) so you don’t pay taxes?

  190. 690
    David says:

    RE: OA @ 684 – Both. I already owned these two stocks in my non-retirement accounts. I also own Boeing, , LUV & TROW in those but not as much. I’m down about $16k in Boeing and $150 in LUV.

    The S&P 500 have has a P/E in the mid 30s – crazy-town.

  191. 691
    OA says:

    By David @ 685:

    RE: OA @ 684 – Both. I already owned these two stocks in my non-retirement accounts. I also own Boeing, , LUV & TROW in those but not as much. I’m down about $16k in Boeing and $150 in LUV.

    The S&P 500 have has a P/E in the mid 30s – crazy-town.

    Agree on S&P500 index, mid 30s PE is higher than my comfort level. I did the same thing last year and sold it as well. Put most of it in SCHD instead, which is one of my favorite ETFs.

  192. 692
    Eastsider says:

    I’m not sure why anyone would invest in BRK/B. One stock, APPL, accounts for half of its holding. Add in BAC and KO, you have 2/3 of your money in 3 stocks. This is against basic investment principle.

    BRK/B trails S&P 500 in both performance in all measurement periods below and diversification.

    From Morningstar –

    Total Return % (02/04/2021) 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year
    BRK.B 4.75 4.08 13.09 10.98 9.82
    S&P 500 TR USD 20.04 13.68 17.20 13.66 9.93
    +/- S&P 500 TR USD -15.29 -9.60 -4.11 -2.68 -0.11

    https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

  193. 693
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 687 – Because it has a 100 score on the Value Line price stability index. It has $140B in cash and earning $20B in cash every year right now.

    I’m also waiting to see what this SECRET position BRK is building turns out to be. My guess is just a major repurchase of BRK stock hopefully to the tune of about $120B.

  194. 694
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 688 – BRK/B tracks S&P 500 somewhat closely on Yahoo chart. Perhaps S&P 500 also scores close to 100 on the VL ‘stability’ index? Buffett has lost his ‘touch’ a while back and no longer beats S&P 500. In fact, without insider sweetheart deals, he would have trailed the index badly.

    Not giving any financial advice here…

  195. 695
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 689 – BRK will beat the S&P when the bubble bursts. BRK is trading about 75% lower P/E than the S&P. You also have to remember that the BRK numbers don’t reflect much with respect to the accumulated cash position which Buffett has been holding for years now.

    Of course, if Buffett dies all bets are off. I’m only in BRK for now until I find a better option that isn’t overpriced.

  196. 696
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 690 – Good luck with your investment. I disagree that BRK is any less volatile than S&P. 3 stocks account for 2/3 of BRK holding. That can’t be good. If you are really concerned about PE, there are value based strategies that have ‘proven’ to work pretty well. Even QQQ outperforms S&P over time.

    Disclaimer: Past returns are not indicative of future performance blah blah…

  197. 697
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 690
    Yeah, I do the same thing. BRK-B is my holding tank if I can’t find anything I like.

  198. 698
    formerSeattleite says:

    By David @ 669:

    We’re in hyper-inflation now. Housing prices are sky high, stocks are sky high, etc. Can someone please show me something essential that is not sky high?

    This. Every measure of inflation doesn’t seem to include the most important things — housing, health insurance, and other expenses alike. Your housing expense could be up to 50% of your income — so why isn’t housing included in inflation calculations!? makes absolutely NO sense in my opinion. Thus, every read on inflation is that it’s super low or nonexistent. Yet housing / living expenses have skyrocketed. Isn’t that the very definition of inflation?

    Someone much smarter than me, help me understand why the government won’t include housing costs as part of inflation data (serious request here).

  199. 699
    Blurtman says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 692 – I believe you are referring to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    From their website: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.”

    Of course the official CPI number does not tell the whole story at all. The cost of higher education, healthcare, automobiles and of course, RE, is far outpacing the modest CPI increases reported by the bureau. Adding insult to injury, the rise in the prices of these goods and services is outpacing the rise in wages for the average citizen.

    One reason to under report actual inflation is the keep interest rates low, which fuels a positive feedback loop to the prices of good and services, as the monthly payment becomes smaller.

  200. 700
    disasteraverted says:

    While on the semi-tangent of stock market investing, what does everyone think about a more liquid product than RE to hold assets in temporarily for a RE purchase in the next 3-6 months?

    I have a paid for property I want to sell ASAP (I think it will do particularly well right now, for limited time) and then buy another in the summer, in hopes that inventory will improve at least a bit.

    The question is where to sock that money so that it will inflate with RE prices if they continue to go up? 6 months could become 2 years.

    My guess is there are some REITs with residential RE exposure, but for now my plan is something like 90% short term bonds and 10% VTWAX / VTIAX or other highly diversified fund/etf. Ideas?

  201. 701

    RE: Erik @ 648
    Its a MESS Erik:

    https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/02/05/breaking-news/biden-meets-with-house-democrats-in-push-for-1-9t-coronavirus-relief-plan/

    What MASSIVE [?] part of $1.9T didn’t get passed by Senate? They did lower the stimulus checks to under $40/yr per capita income limit [even that is non-binding]….but the rest of it [they don’t say what percentage] goes into committees, what ever that means in dollars. Correct me if I’m wrong Erik, the MSM above is the best recent real news on the topic. Do you or Ardelle have URLs on this news, re: % a Nuclear Senate can push through without bipartisan support….it sounds like no one knows at this point and how can income limits at $40/K be injected now? The Tooth Fairy knows. Its all fog in my book so far.

  202. 702
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 694
    I put all of my real estate investment money into Tesla, which has done very well. It’s still all in Tesla and I’ll pull money out as a need it for real estate. I’ll buy a primary residence in August and then start looking for investments in Seattle.

    May I ask why you’d ever sell a fully paid off income generating house to buy another house? Isn’t that the goal to build a portfolio of real estate that produces passive income? Once you have real estate paid off, you get a tax free passive income stream forever. The appreciation you get over time is an added bonus for being smart and investing in real estate. It doesn’t make sense to me why anyone would ever sell a paid for property that produces monthly income. Don’t pay thousands to realtors and Uncle Sam if you don’t have to.

  203. 703

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 692
    The COLA is a joke.

    Its calculated with an etch a sketch…LOL

  204. 704
    disasteraverted says:

    By Erik @ 696:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 694
    I put all of my real estate investment money into Tesla, which has done very well. It’s still all in Tesla and I’ll pull money out as a need it for real estate. I’ll buy a primary residence in August and then start looking for investments in Seattle.

    May I ask why you’d ever sell a fully paid off income generating house to buy another house? Isn’t that the goal to build a portfolio of real estate that produces passive income? Once you have real estate paid off, you get a tax free passive income stream forever. The appreciation you get over time is an added bonus for being smart and investing in real estate. It doesn’t make sense to me why anyone would ever sell a paid for property that produces monthly income. Don’t pay thousands to realtors and Uncle Sam if you don’t have to.

    You have done well with Tesla, congrats! I think that’s a bit too risky for my blood. In fact I’m betting against Tesla long term (with play money), you know how well that is going.

    In retrospect I should not have paid the property off, but I paid it off when rates were somewhat higher and I had a the cash lying around, so at the time the thought was paid it off and earn at least 4%/year on the money.

    While it was income earning for a while (accidental landlord), I’m actually living there now. Want to sell and buy a SFH with as big a mortgage as possible as a mortgage is an asset right now. If the market tanks in a few more years, I’ll use the leftover cash to buy an investment property again.

    Erik, I know you’d buy more now and sell more later, but it certainly feels like 2006-07 out there, and I’m not sure I want to press my luck timing the top. Want to get into something I can live with if the market goes up or down in the next few years. I’m sure in 10-20 I’ll be OK either way.

  205. 705
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By OA @ 686:

    By David @ 685:

    RE: OA @ 684 – Both. I already owned these two stocks in my non-retirement accounts. I also own Boeing, , LUV & TROW in those but not as much. I’m down about $16k in Boeing and $150 in LUV.

    The S&P 500 have has a P/E in the mid 30s – crazy-town.

    Agree on S&P500 index, mid 30s PE is higher than my comfort level. I did the same thing last year and sold it as well. Put most of it in SCHD instead, which is one of my favorite ETFs.

    I would just add that a P/E ratio can be calculated any number of ways, depending on which period of time for the “E”(Earnings) being used. There is valid debate about what period of earnings should be used, whether the most recent 12 months, or the projected next 12 months. Or some other time period. Both sides of the argument have valid points. But just changing the period of time of the “E” will produce a wildly different P/E ratio.

    For example if the P/E ratio is using most recent 12 months, when during that period of time earnings were suppressed by something such as a pandemic, that P/E ratio will look worse that it really should.

    Not sure what period of earnings the P/E ratio you cited uses, but if its trailing 12 months, that ratio of mid 30’s might be misleadingly high.

  206. 706

    RE: disasteraverted @ 680
    All I know is organized crime and drug dealers “regularly” launders money through Bit Coin and the name on the account can easily be masked, so no federal tax owed. You were honest, they aren’t.

    “…If you receive an unconditional quit notice, or you know you can’t pay rent, try to move out before the deadline. Even if you move out, your landlord is still entitled to rent and late fees due. Your landlord might deduct what you owe from your security deposit, and, if the deposit isn’t enough, can sue you for the remaining amount. However, moving out voluntarily is preferable to being evicted, and your landlord might decide it’s not worth the effort to sue you. On the other hand, if your landlord is forced to evict you, you’ll not only have an eviction judgment against you, but also possibly a judgment for rent, late fees, attorneys’ fees, and court costs…”

    Sounds like the Dem $1.9T stimulus omits lost payments to owners….how do you sell if the past tenant won’t move? Am I wrong? Or are we assuming the alleged $1.9t stimulus bill covers our investments as owners and it doesn’t. Sure appears that way…

    They prop up prices this way? I hope not, if I’m an owner. The Dems need to give us more to go by than this. The Killer Flu timeline:

    Stimulus 1 goes out 2020
    Trump gives EO and some get $600 stimulus checks, not most…
    Biden’s Stimulus 2 lack partisan support on:

    $15/hr minimum wage
    $1.9 T price tag
    schools staying closed forever
    nurses shortages in 2121
    teacher shortages in 2121
    restaurants dying like crazy
    help wanted signs all over Seattle area

    I’m reading worst case scenarios of the Killer Flu extending shutdowns through 2525 and no rebuttable s too; If this is true, I see the 2022 election going all GOP as Biden’s approval numbers aren’t held up by Killer Flu. We’ll know more by March.

    I see attorneys pro fitting off this BTW.

  207. 707

    Boeing and Tesla Can Also Be Horrible Stock Picks

    If the electric grid isn’t enlarged with oil products to charge ’em….so will food go way up in price as we butcher ax oil plastics…the airline industry has to fill planes to buy at Boeing and this seems years away now…maybe never? I’d buy Gamestop and sell fast…LOL

  208. 708
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 667

    Yes, timing is critical.
    — it appears Kevin agrees w you?:

    Meet Kevin, re: P.Schiff interview:
    “I don’t think the squeeze is squoze yet”
    https://youtu.be/tbNmNXM2g9g

    btw, What happens to RE during Stagflation?

  209. 709
    ruxpert says:

    Hi All,
    after reading posts, I find this as current core ponder:
    inflation is good / buy more houses via debt/leverage!
    ( I will endeavor to find/present info re: that)

    (please be careful to not get distracted …
    i.e.: gold is not subject/topic)

    starting @ approx 5min.mark
    ‘The Box We’ve Been Put Into’
    https://youtu.be/eM009xjtyUE?t=303

    ‘Runaway inflation OR Everything Blows-up?’
    &
    ‘Will We have time to ‘react’?

  210. 710
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 698
    Thanks, I’m getting better at this stock stuff. I lost a lot on bank of Ireland years ago, so it’s good to be winning.

    My long term plan is to have enough real estate cash flow to live. You already have an entire house paid off that could become a rental, which would give you passive income every month. I’d buy the new house and pay part of the mortgage on the new house with rental income from the paid off house. So if you buy a real expensive house and your payment is $5k/mo and you get $2k/mo from the rental income, you only need $3k/mo of earned income.

    You do what you want as you are probably doing better than me. You paid off an entire house with surplus cash laying around, I’m just saying what I’d do.

  211. 711
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 698
    Thanks, I’m getting better at this stock stuff. I lost a lot on bank of Ireland years ago, so it’s good to be winning.

    My long term plan is to have enough real estate cash flow to live. You already have an entire house paid off that could become a rental, which would give you passive income every month. I’d buy the new house and pay part of the mortgage on the new house with rental income from the paid off house. So if you buy a real expensive house and your payment is $5k/mo and you get $2k/mo from the rental income, you only need $3k/mo of earned income.

    You do what you want as you are probably doing better than me. You paid off an entire house with surplus cash laying around, I’m just saying what I’d do.

  212. 712
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 704
    Yep you do you, I do me, we certainly won’t do the same thing, we are different people. However, you have taught me I need to take on a bit more risk. I hesitate to pay current prices for a new place, but if I “only” put 20% down, that’s really the most I can lose and I can afford to lose it if things go really sideways in RE.

  213. 713
    OA says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 699:

    By OA @ 686:

    By David @ 685:

    RE: OA @ 684 – Both. I already owned these two stocks in my non-retirement accounts. I also own Boeing, , LUV & TROW in those but not as much. I’m down about $16k in Boeing and $150 in LUV.

    The S&P 500 have has a P/E in the mid 30s – crazy-town.

    Agree on S&P500 index, mid 30s PE is higher than my comfort level. I did the same thing last year and sold it as well. Put most of it in SCHD instead, which is one of my favorite ETFs.

    I would just add that a P/E ratio can be calculated any number of ways, depending on which period of time for the “E”(Earnings) being used. There is valid debate about what period of earnings should be used, whether the most recent 12 months, or the projected next 12 months. Or some other time period. Both sides of the argument have valid points. But just changing the period of time of the “E” will produce a wildly different P/E ratio.

    For example if the P/E ratio is using most recent 12 months, when during that period of time earnings were suppressed by something such as a pandemic, that P/E ratio will look worse that it really should.

    Not sure what period of earnings the P/E ratio you cited uses, but if its trailing 12 months, that ratio of mid 30’s might be misleadingly high.

    100% agree. I just checked two diff places specifically for the VOO etf and one had it at 37 while the other one at 28. I sold my VOO position earlier last year mostly because I’m more focused on dividend growth going forward. The PE ratio alone wasn’t the main reason for the sell.

  214. 714
    ruxpert says:

    The Perfect Storm For A Housing Crash 2021
    Feb 2, 2021
    https://youtu.be/UKcPR1jc9II

    When Will The Housing Bubble POP -Housing Crisis 2021
    https://youtu.be/6O4T7bAY8CA?t=343

  215. 715
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 705
    Absolutely! If you want to be even more conservative, buy the new place for 3.5 or 5% down and move into it and rent your old place out. I’m not sure, but I think the 5% may be better because you don’t have to pay PMI, but you may want to verify that.

    Then, I have to add, you could refinance money out of the one you paid off to buy more rental properties for as little down as possible. When we have another real estate boom, you’ll be a much wealthier man I’d imagine. I don’t think prices doubling in Seattle again is that far away. I think the big federally subsidized boom is coming before we have a substantial bust. If you can time this boom right and sell something at the top for a big gain. that would be pretty sweet.

    We just went through a bubble and are near the bottom. The down market was the great taper tantrum of 2018/2019 when we hit bottom in 2019(when I luckily bought 2 houses). Now we bounced hard off the bottom and are in double digit year over year gains territory again with record low inventory. Feels like the bottom of what should be a pretty decent run up in prices.

  216. 716
    Matt P says:

    Getting a house with a VA loan is basically free money at this point, but looking at moving to the east side now that I can WFH and wife works over there, but there’s literally no SFH detached over there that can be had with a VA loan unless you go into Renton and freaking Renton is in the 500k range now. Wish I had just bought over there instead of West Seattle (my wife only works part time so it the commute wasn’t so bad for her until the bridge went out, ugh. She might just have to stop working and we’ll move somewhere cheaper, but she enjoys her job.

  217. 717
    Eastsider says:

    By Eastsider @ 1:

    10yr treasury yield has increased from 0.508% on 8/4 to 0.935% today. A year ago today, the yield was 1.89%, and 2 years ago it was 3.142%!

    10yr yield is now at 1.169%, the highest level since March. The upward trend is now well established and 2% yield is a distinct possibility by summer. What 10yr hits 2%, mortgage rate will be about 1% higher from today. Lock in your rates now because it is cheap relative to treasury. Watch mortgage rates rise over next 2 weeks. You read it here first.

    That said, I would not buy investment properties at these prices. It does not take much interest rate hike to wreck havoc in the RE market, despite “all time low” inventory. Perhaps some people have short memory…

  218. 718

    And If I Pay Like 20% Down I limit My Losses?

    $200-160K of losses is not chump change..

  219. 719
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 698
    You don’t mention how long you were an accidental landlord. You should check with a CPA to see if that property is still eligible for the capital gains exclusion. The answer to that may be important to your strategy.

  220. 720
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 708
    I would much rather live in West Seattle than Renton. I would wait until the bridge gets fixed and tough it out. I’m not sure where you live in West Seattle, but I use to live on alki point and it was a great place to live.

  221. 721
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 711
    Assuming the rule hasn’t changed, it’s $250k exclusion for a single person and $500k for married people if you lived there 2 of the past 5 years.

  222. 722
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Erik @ 713
    Those are the numbers. I have to revisit the 2 of 5 years thing. You may be right there.

  223. 723

    It May Snow Today

    So what, we’re mainly on Killer Flu lock down with driving optional.

    The kids will get out and sled too…exercise.

  224. 724
    ruxpert says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 715

    https://tinyurl.com/14irpymd

    From Michigan to Germany, courts are beginning to rule in favor of constitutional freedoms
    (infringed by worldwide lock-downs.)

  225. 725

    Being Debt Free

    May distract your investment style, but it sure is much more stress-less.

  226. 726

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 714

    There are a few risks that are not carved in stone since several of the benefits involving real estate tax breaks were almost removed back at the last change until NAR lobbied hard at the last minute. I think I saw Biden talking about getting rid of the 1031 Exchange some time back and that 2 of 5 year free/no tax on big gains could easily be changed.

    Best thing to do with a $500,000 gain for a married couple is TAKE IT while it’s FREE. So many are thinking to keep it as a rental after buying a new house thinking they will just take their free gain after renting it out for 3 years. But there’s no guarantee that benefit will survive. Giving people a free ride on a $500,000 gain is not likely to be popular in this regime. It and other benefits for “the rich” almost went away with the last one! ;)

    In fact part of the reason inventory is so low and there are way more buyers than sellers is because the buyers are keeping their former homes and not letting them be available to buyers. That squeeze is getting really bad. Think twice before keeping your former residence if it is a family sized home. People need that home! :)

  227. 727

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 714

    There are a few risks that are not carved in stone since several of the benefits involving real estate tax breaks were almost removed back at the last change until NAR lobbied hard at the last minute. I think I saw Biden talking about getting rid of the 1031 Exchange some time back and that 2 of 5 year free/no tax on big gains could easily be changed.

    Best thing to do with a $500,000 gain for a married couple is TAKE IT while it’s FREE. So many are thinking to keep it as a rental after buying a new house thinking they will just take their free gain after renting it out for 3 years. But there’s no guarantee that benefit will survive. Giving people a free ride on a $500,000 gain is not likely to be popular in this regime. It and other benefits for “the rich” almost went away with the last one! ;)

    In fact part of the reason inventory is so low and there are way more buyers than sellers is because the buyers are keeping their former homes and not letting them be available to buyers. That squeeze is getting really bad. Think twice before keeping your former residence if it is a family sized home. People need that home! :)

  228. 728
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 719 – Pish posh! Current owners should go Gamestop, and collude to keep homes off the market, with a slow drip of listings to drive up prices.

  229. 729
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 719
    If prices go up 15% while the landlord holds the property, that would make it a wash. Prices will probably go up about 15% this year in Seattle is my guess as we print more money and trade more with China. The following years before the crash hits, we’ll probably get double digit price increases in the Seattle area as well. As a gambling man, I think it would make sense to keep squeezing buyers and sell after this bubble really picks up. Maybe think of selling when King County hits 6000, but right now is time to squeeze buyers.

    I don’t mean to be harsh, but I have mortgages to pay and mouths to feed. If I wanted to give charity, I’d choose St. Judes. Software people don’t need charity and they will get squeezed by me, a poor man from the streets of North Everett.

  230. 730
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 720 – LOL. The Fed will simply dictate that individuals are only allowed to sell homes at prevailing “market” prices! American capitalism at its best! Talk to GME bag holders…

  231. 731
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 721 – Prices will go up 15%! Haha. Let me quote our great Benjamin Franklin- “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

    Alright, Erik admits he’s a “gambling man.”

  232. 732
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 723
    I’ll bet you that by February of 2022 that housing prices in Seattle go up 15% or more year over year.

    The S&P is way riskier than owning rental real estate in Seattle.

    Read this:
    https://blog.dce.harvard.edu/extension/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

  233. 733
    formerSeattleite says:

    RE: Erik @ 724

    Interesting article, thanks for posting Eric. I know you and others have referenced this for years on this blog. According to the article, the only 2 exceptions to this repetitive market has been WWII and the doubling of interest rates in 1979 due to inflation.

    Question is, any chance we get in a war with China or we see hyper inflation in the next year or 2? That would bring on a ‘crash’ earlier than anticipated ..

  234. 734
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 719
    I am generally in agreement with you about taking the potential $500k deduction, but I was aware that historical conversion to rental and back might not be completely straightforward in the tax department. The link below is pretty current, and does show how you have to do things just right, or you may not have quite what you thought. Hence my advice to check with a CPA.

    https://www.merriman.com/wealth-preservation/planning-on-moving-back-into-your-rental-in-the-future-read-this-first/

    A long time ago, I did choose to risk a $50K tax free gain to keep my house as a rental. The rules did change from where I started, but I eventually would up with $500k taxable gain which I 1031’d into better property, and so have still enjoyed the growth on the not yet taxed capital gain.

  235. 735

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 725

    War With the High Tech ChiComs?

    LOL…its the right thing to do, that’s exactly why we won’t do it. Its like George Orwell’s “1984”….friends become enemies and enemies become friends….with video cameras parked everywhere. Can the Smart TVs hear us in our homes like 1984? Lord Only Knows.

  236. 736
    Blurtman says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 725 – A nuclear war with China may cause a 10% or so retrenchment in the stock market, but the trend is bullish long-term.

  237. 737
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 726

    I’ve seen too many tax code changes regarding sale of personal residence capital gains treatment in my many years to favor risk in that regard. Again, Prudent Man Rule. :)

  238. 738
    Erik says:

    RE: formerSeattleite @ 725
    I’ve read this article many times and it’s good to refresh.

    I don’t think we are going to see inflation until at least 2023 because we have such a low velocity of money. When things open up, I don’t think people will immediately get out and start spending money, which will keep inflation down. If the 18 year cycle holds true, we won’t see a down market begin until 2024(2006+18). I think if anything, when the real estate market gets ready to tank, it will get lifted by high inflation, extending past it’s due date. We could over inflate at that time, but it likely won’t be before 2024, the theoretical beginning of the next downturn. We won’t over inflate and then crash the next day. It will take a while, and that is a great time to own real estate.

    In 2012, I planned to not have loans and only have paid off cash flowing real estate by 2024.😎 With all this inflation on the horizon, it may be smart to hold Seattle real estate a little longer. Maybe dollar cost average out? Sell one 2023, another 2025, and one maybe in 2026? Own some passive income property without a mortgage for the rest of my life. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m not selling anything at record low inventory.

  239. 739
    disasteraverted says:

    By Erik @ 729:

    RE: I’m not selling anything at record low inventory.

    I am not a RE investor, but wouldn’t now with low inventory be the perfect time to unload a property from your portfolio? I guess not if you think prices will continue to increase, but I’d think if you want to even cash out (dollar cost average) one property, now would be the time. Pick the loser and get rid of it now while buyers have little choice.

    If I had a number of properties, I’d think hard about selling the worst one right now. If nothing else, pick up a more desirable property in 6-12 months when inventory picks up at least slightly. I guess the transaction costs may make it a wash or worse…

  240. 740
    uwp says:

    By disasteraverted @ 730:

    If I had a number of properties, I’d think hard about selling the worst one right now. If nothing else, pick up a more desirable property in 6-12 months when inventory picks up at least slightly. I guess the transaction costs may make it a wash or worse…

    For sure.

    I sort of regret not holding on to our previous house because I’m sure it’s worth 10-15% more right now, but I know I would have been stressed out as the pandemic set in, then worrying about renters all year long. It would not have been fun.

    Meanwhile, we were able to take the cash from the sale and invest it for a surprisingly decent year of returns.

  241. 741
    David says:

    I’m seeing some concerning signs of rail traffic declines in North America. I don’t see Biden doing anything that is going to improve the economy. You would think the vaccine would lead to an economic jolt upward. But who knows.

    RE: uwp @ 731

  242. 742
    David says:

    I’d pay off my primary residence. Otherwise I’d stay leveraged in rental housing. Housing is usually accurately priced. It is very difficult to find unfairly priced housing. Too much market knowledge. Why pay cash for a property when you can leverage and ride out the gains? Assuming you have enough rental income in total to ride out the margin call of a mortgage payment.

    Also assuming you live somewhere the State cannot take your primary residence against a rental foreclosure.

    By disasteraverted @ 730:

    By Erik @ 729:

    RE: I’m not selling anything at record low inventory.

    I am not a RE investor, but wouldn’t now with low inventory be the perfect time to unload a property from your portfolio? I guess not if you think prices will continue to increase, but I’d think if you want to even cash out (dollar cost average) one property, now would be the time. Pick the loser and get rid of it now while buyers have little choice.

    If I had a number of properties, I’d think hard about selling the worst one right now. If nothing else, pick up a more desirable property in 6-12 months when inventory picks up at least slightly. I guess the transaction costs may make it a wash or worse…

  243. 743
    David says:

    Doesn’t look like Erik gets much protection under Homestead in Louisiana.

    RE: uwp @ 731

  244. 744
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 730
    Real estate prices do not max out when inventory is at the bottom. If you want to time the market based on fundamentals, now is the time to wait for king county inventory to get to 6000 before you even think about selling. As supply grows, real estate prices continue to go up for a while. That’s when the real estate bubble starts inflating. The bubble could inflate for years and it hasn’t even begun. Inventory over 6000 in king county and increasing prices is kind of the cue to start thinking about offloading your real estate.

    Right now supply is low and prices are increasing. That sounds like expansion to me, which means we aren’t close to a crash and it’s time to keep partying. The music won’t stop for years and selling early because of nerves is a major mistake in my opinion. Prices accelerate before the bust and that’s an exciting market I want to be in. When inventory keeps increasing and prices keep going up, I’ll hit the eject button and parachute into a new reality of passive income, higher net worth, and low debt. That’s the plan at least.

  245. 745

    Kim and I got our first doses of the vaccine yesterday at Microsoft. Scheduled for a 2nd dose in early March. So we are on our way back to “normal”. :)

  246. 746
    Blurtman says:

    The 10 year UST is flirting with 1.2% and the 30 year, 2%. It sounds bizarre to even find that noteworthy.

  247. 747
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 734
    I like Seattle real estate. Seattle is not a very enjoyable place to live, but people that live there are fortunate enough to live on a booming real estate market under their feet. All you gotta do is buy and hold in Seattle. People on here are sitting on a gold mine and too scared to buy.

  248. 748
    Back to Basics says:

    I like Seattle real estate too. Because of booming tech industry and limit land available to build, house (actually the land) is a very good asset. Plus the covid -19 limit the new construction and QE with near zero interest rate. I don’t see a major correction in the near future unless mortgage back to normal to 6-7% level. Buy now if you need for you and the family.

  249. 749

    Go Out and enjoy the Icy Streets

    Everything is peachy slippery white in Seattle. The open houses should fill with buyers, snow or no snow…

  250. 750
    Erik says:

    RE: Back to Basics @ 739
    I agree. The best logical crash argument I can come up with is that in 3 years, we are historically due up for a top and then the start of a crash on year 4. Be disciplined and sell in 2 years to avoid all that. If you are poor and overleveraged and want to avoid risk just go into it with the discipline of selling in 2 years. That’s what I did when I was broke and it worked out very well.

    Reading the crowd, including myself, there seems to be some euphoria in the market. If that continues a few years and prices keep going up quickly, you may want to sell in 2024. Other than that, full steam ahead! It’s about time to kick this bubble into overdrive. Just have a plan in your back pocket that if inventory goes way up and prices keep going up like crazy, it may be wise to sell.

    If you own multiple houses, try to sell some at the top and only own real estate without a mortgage during the next real estate recession. I’m poor, so I used the profits from my remodel to buy more rentals. Now I want to harvest equity from some units at the top of the market that have gone up in value to pay off other units that are not cash flowing. Once you pay them off, the cash flow gets much better i’ve heard. Net worth generally increases too.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.