Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere

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Let’s take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here’s your October update to our “Around the Sound” statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Things are looking pretty similar all around the Puget Sound region—extremely low supply, high demand, and skyrocketing prices. The one tiny bright spot for buyers is that new listings are higher than they were a year ago in every county.

First up, a summary table:

October 2020 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $745,000 $579,972 $430,000 $437,000 $395,000 $449,000 $441,500 $474,450
Price YOY 12.9% 17.2% 17.8% 13.2% 13.4% 24.7% 17.6% 13.2%
New Listings 2,986 1,309 1,512 472 492 173 197 320
New Listings YOY 29.7% 20.6% 23.1% 27.9% 21.8% 29.1% 4.2% 4.9%
Active Listings 2,258 652 881 280 217 122 188 323
Active YOY -37.6% -59.2% -46.6% -42.5% -54.4% -60.3% -44.9% -51.4%
Pending Sales 3,007 1,403 1,658 524 549 182 219 331
Pending YOY 16.0% 12.4% 11.2% 10.3% 11.8% 16.7% -0.5% 2.2%
Closed Sales 3,027 1,438 1,520 527 522 179 232 344
Closed YOY 36.0% 36.0% 18.0% 28.9% 15.0% 32.6% 22.1% 19.0%
Months of Supply 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9

Median home prices were up in every single county from a year earlier. King County’s 13 percent increase was actually the smallest around the sound, while the largest price gains were in Island County.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Here’s the one sort-of bright spot for buyers: New listings are on the rise, especially in King County.

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

However, active listings are down dramatically from a year ago in every county. The biggest decline was in Island County (probably no surprise then that prices are up the most there), where listings fell by 60 percent from a year earlier. King County saw the smallest drop, but was still down 38 percent.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Closed sales were up across the board in every single county. The biggest gains were in King and Snohomish Counties, which both saw closed sales increase 36 percent from a year ago. Pierce and Thurston had the smallest gains at 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is just absolutely abysmal for buyers everywhere. Every single county less than one month of supply in October.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a pretty terrible time to be a home buyer, across the entire Greater Seattle Area.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

5.00 avg. rating (97% score) - 7 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

1,992 comments:

  1. 1501
    don says:

    RE: Erik @ 1499

    Thanks, Erik.

    On the ground info is good.
    I remember seeing a couple Blackrock company rental signs in the dingleweeds of Fife a couple years ago, so they maybe cast a broad net. Neither were pick of the litter either, from the curb.

  2. 1502
    Seah says:

    Erik ,
    At auctions, how much can you save ?
    I also wonder given how lucrative Seattle real estate is , couldn’t the former homeowners sell it in the market for profit ?
    RE: Erik @ 1499

  3. 1503
    Matt P says:

    By Brianna @ 1498:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1496

    Yeah, I’m not seeing a lot of people unloading properties at this time. I just spoke to a friend, who has owned their home for decades, and wants to sell and downsize. They would stand to make a very sizable profit on the sale of their home. But… they don’t want to have to buy in this market. And this keeps the unbalanced market cycle going.

    I would love to see people unloading properties, for the inventory to increase, for the prices to at least stop climbing so high… but I have to reconcile between what I want to happen versus what is actually happening.

    I have seen properties being bid up incredibly-and some that have sold and closed in just weeks (I’m assuming these are cash deals). Perhaps some of these big buyers are anticipating the dollar becoming devalued, high inflation hitting our economy, and just want a way to park their cash so it will hold value? That’s my suspicion.

    Your friend is thinking irrationally. At any point in time, a market is going to be equal to itself ie you can’t sell your house at a high price and rebuy your house immediately for a lower price therefore at some point if you want to move, you must either sell your place and buy a different one that fits your budget and needs or you can sell and rent and hope the market comes down.

    If they simply stay put hoping the market falls, then they will also lose value in their own home since theirs isn’t going to magically be worth more. If they think this is the absolute top, then they should sell since either buying or renting after selling would be better than buying or renting after a market downturn. Even if they rent and there’s a downturn though, the money used renting – not to mention the hassle and expensive of moving twice – might still be less than the equity they would have gained from buying immediately.

    For example, their house is worth $500k and they owe nothing, so $500k profit. They buy a new house for $400k and pocket $100k. If they wait for a downturn and prices fall 10%, then they make $450k on the sale, and the new house costs $360k, only a $90k profit. If they still owe money then math is even worse: $800k value, $300k owed, $500k profit, they buy a new house for $500k, net zero. 10% downturn: $420k profit and they have to take out a $30k loan for the new house. This isn’t taking into account that higher priced houses tend to fall even more than mid and low priced when there’s a downturn.

  4. 1504
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 1502
    It all depends. My goal is to buy, remodel, and then appraise for 75% LTV and pull all my money out of the deal when I refinance into a conventional loan.

    I’m not that good at keeping track of what I put into the deal, but I’d say you save 20% with a lot of work. Last deal, I’m not sure I saved much vs buying from the mls. I paid $311k and it appraised for $580k after fix up. After eviction fees, permits, and a huge remodel bill, I’m not sure it was worth it to be honest.

    Other deals have gone better, but those were closer to the crash. It all depends I guess. I think I’m addicted to the risk of losing it all. If you want to try auctions, now is probably not the right stage to start. Start after the market crashes and you buy for 40% of the after repairs value.

  5. 1505
    Erik says:

    RE: Seah @ 1502
    Of course sellers in Seattle can sell for profit now. Seattle real estate went up 18% year over year this year and like 13% the year before that.

    You can get some fantastic deals at the auction. The hard part is not spending too much on eviction, remodel, and other surprises. For example, the last auction property I purchased was a house in Rainier for $311k and it appraised for $580k after remodel. I had to pay attorney fees, holding fees, remodel fees, purchase fees, etc. It’s a great place now in a high appreciation area, which I’m happy about. I’m not sure the cost was worth the work and stress vs buying from mls. The auction had amazing deals last recession. Unfortunately, most have those dried up. I plan to see if I can buy something from the auction in July when the foreclosure moratorium is lifted hoping there is a surplus of inventory. If not, I probably won’t buy anything at the auction and I’ll have to look at the mls.

    The name of the game is owning as much rental real estate as you can in areas you think may go up in value. My advice is acquire as much real estate as you can whichever way you are comfortable with. The money is in holding it because the value tends to go up. I like the game of buying at the auction. I like the rush I get. If I didn’t enjoy it, I’d probably just buy on the mls.

  6. 1506
    Erik says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1503
    I say sell the house and reinvest the money into buying a primary residence and a couple rentals. Then after 10 years, sell the rentals and own the new primary residence without a mortgage. That’s what I’d do if I were Brianna’s friends.

  7. 1507
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1496 – The conduits got here to scoop up meaningful numbers of houses years ago. I’m sorry not to have saved you some clippings. It’s not news anymore. And they’ve still got them. They are not giving up meaningful numbers. Where does your understanding on this come from? I am tempted to think it’s your ass.

    You have still provided no coherent thoughts on ramifications for the market implied by the Texas subdivision buyers you introduced to the conversation. How about giving that a go?

  8. 1508
    ruxpert says:

    Transitioning Into Stagflation
    Schiff – Apr.10
    https://www.schiffradio.com/transitioning-into-stagflation/

  9. 1509
    Eastsider says:

    RE: don @ 1497 – The big guys are acquiring/constructing and selling homes all the time. For example, American Homes 4 Rent had 711 properties held for sale as of December 31, 2020. Most don’t really have a presence in Seattle.

    You can check out AH4R’s ‘Seattle’ inventory –
    https://communities.ah4r.com/metroareas/seatlle

  10. 1510
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1509
    I wonder why AH4R only owns rentals in poor areas? That seems like a bad business plan. Seattle and Eastside is where the money is at.

  11. 1511
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1510 – Invitation Homes, the largest home rental company, is no different. No serious investor will buy SFHs in Seattle for rental income. Here is their inventory –

    https://lease.invitationhomes.com/markets/seattle-wa

    Sure, some of them might have bought 1000s of homes from failing banks and govt at significant discount during the crash. But they are certainly not competing with Seattle homebuyers at these prices.

  12. 1512
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1509 – 711 houses for sale is 1.3% of 53,584 houses in portfolio. I hope no one will be surprised that a portfolio manager, especially one that still makes bulk purchases, is going to continually adjust that portfolio. Also worth noting that they had 52,552 houses on the same date in 2019, so pretty hard to make the argument that their increasing inventory means that they are taking their gains and getting out.

    American Homes 4 Rent is indeed a heartland/sunbelt (read 2007 disaster) concentrated company with a desired max purchase price of $450K, so not a great match for the Seattle market. They started in 2012 and completed their large scale growth by 2016, and have grown slowly since.

    You are fighting a losing battle either way. People in Georgia and Texas also think the price of RE has grown astronomically, but your example demonstrates a real lack of institutional exodus there. Nothing to support that is happening here either, regardless of their relative size in our market; and in any event, the smaller the presence, the smaller the effect of any potential exodus.

  13. 1513
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1504:

    Other deals have gone better, but those were closer to the crash.

    True. Those days are gone.

    Also, don’t buy at auction today. It’s a waste of time and money. Do you see realtors there? Nope.

  14. 1514
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1511
    All I know is that investing for net worth and not cash flow has been the key to my success in real estate. I’m not a rich guy or anything, but speculating has been very lucrative for me. My speculating has provided my family with a lot of financial security we wouldn’t have otherwise. It’s gonna get even better whenever I harvest enough equity to own all my rentals without a mortgage. That way I’m getting the passive income plus appreciation.

  15. 1515
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1513
    Yes, I see many realtors at every auction. That’s how the auction generally works in King County. Agents go bid for their clients.

  16. 1516
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1514 – I’m glad it worked out for you. But you can’t equate investing during crash vs today. S&P500 gained 60% YoY from Mar-20 to Mar-21 but no serious investor expects the bull market to continue at the same pace.

    Banks are tightening mortgage lending standards. They are taking steps to protect themselves against a downturn. It does not mean prices will decline but the days of easy gains are over.

    Need a Mortgage Loan? Good Luck. Lenders Are Tightening Standards.
    Mortgages are going almost exclusively to borrowers with pristine credit histories
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mortgage-market-is-roaring-but-lots-of-people-cant-get-a-loan-11617355802

    The mortgage market is humming, but getting approved for a home loan is as difficult as it has been in years.

    Mortgage credit availability, a measure of lenders’ willingness to issue mortgages, is near its lowest level since 2014, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, or MBA.

    The meteoric growth of home prices has made some lenders reluctant to take on first-time home buyers or others they view as slightly risky. Lenders who were comfortable offering mortgages of $300,000 or $320,000 to borrowers with good-but-not-great credit histories might not be willing to lend the $350,000 or more now required to buy the same property.

  17. 1517
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1515 – Sure there are plenty of “agents” at auctions. But rare to see your typical realtors there and actually succeed in bidding. Auction sales are ‘cash’ sales.

  18. 1518
    Brianna says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1503

    Yes, I think you’re right that my friend is thinking irrationally about the financial aspect of selling her home now. But, I think she’s just one of many would-be sellers who share the same mentality. And as Ardell pointed out a few pages of posts ago, most buyers/sellers of real estate are not just thinking about the investment, but more about having a home.

  19. 1519
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1517
    I bet about 25% are cash buyers at the auction. Here’s the auction game:
    Hard money—>Refinance into 75% LTV federally backed mortgage.

    When investors are in hard money, they repair the property as cheap as possible so they can get 75% LTV on the refinance and get all the money back they put into the deal. Like I’ve said earlier, I messed up on the last one and left too much into the deal to pull it all out. It was too big of a remodel for me to handle. During the recession. there was more juice in the deal and remodel labor was cheap and plentiful. Needless to say, investors made a killing. Even though I failed to recoup all my money, I probably increased my net worth $100k. With all the appreciation in that area, I’m sure I’m up much more now. I just can’t make as much money as quickly when I can’t pull all the money out of the deal.

    I haven’t read that article yet, but I will. What I’ve been seeing is media complaining about tight lending and this article is an example of that. Media is priming the people so the fed can loosen lending standards later. The articles about tight lending are an indication the fed is about to loosen lending standards. When that happens, we will finally agree it may be a bad time to buy.

  20. 1520
    Eastsider says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1462:

    I’m starting to wonder if you live in Texas. :) You haven’t seen prices double anywhere nearby in 2 to 4 years? I guess I work in the best of places. Seriously…have you not been listening to Erik at all? He more than doubled in 2 years his first sale. That one was in “my service area”.

    Haha this is from Erik himself. Also his first sale was a short sale.

    By Erik @ 1504:

    I’m not that good at keeping track of what I put into the deal, but I’d say you save 20% with a lot of work. Last deal, I’m not sure I saved much vs buying from the mls. I paid $311k and it appraised for $580k after fix up. After eviction fees, permits, and a huge remodel bill, I’m not sure it was worth it to be honest.

    Other deals have gone better, but those were closer to the crash.

  21. 1521
    ARDELL Della Loggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1520

    My first sale with Erik. I didnt know him before that. I know you know what I meant. As to Woodridge, while your link confirms what I said…wait for the recent listed at $1.5M to close. The Sold Price will knock your socks off. :)

  22. 1522
    MIKAL says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1513 – Are you there doing surveys? Could you be a bigger horses ass? You just sound angry. Buck up. You can still turn your life around and not be such a whiney bitchy. Do you need a hug?

  23. 1523
    Eastsider says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1522 – Hmm… chill.

  24. 1524
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL Della Loggia @ 1521 – I was just pointing out that Erik’s ‘first’ sale has nothing to do with what you are seeing – “30% increase in 2021 price” in some neighborhood. Also, 30% is pure hype IMHO. It will never show up in CS HPI.

  25. 1525
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1520
    It’s true, it was an awesome deal that helped me buy more real estate. It was a great buy very close to the bottom of the market that didn’t need much money to make it shine. Then Ardell got me top dollar on the sale.

  26. 1526
    Matt P says:

    By Brianna @ 1518:

    RE: Matt P @ 1503

    Yes, I think you’re right that my friend is thinking irrationally about the financial aspect of selling her home now. But, I think she’s just one of many would-be sellers who share the same mentality. And as Ardell pointed out a few pages of posts ago, most buyers/sellers of real estate are not just thinking about the investment, but more about having a home.

    I think they are thinking about it a little too much as an investment if they are worried about selling high and buying high. Neither should matter if they are just looking to downgrade. At the market top is the best time to downgrade anyway, but any time you are looking to move from 1 house to another, you are not timing the market. You are simply getting what’s available.

  27. 1527
    Brianna says:

    RE: Matt P @ 1526

    Right now, there’s not much available 🙁 and there are big fights over the few that are.

  28. 1528
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1524

    I’ve sent you many undeniable proofs many times over the years. You never try to learn anything and just repeat your same narratives over and over, year after year.

    Of course the 30% increases in best of neighborhoods won’t show in a 3 County wide index. To suggest it might, ever, only tells us what you don’t know and don’t care to know.

  29. 1529
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1528 – You know very well this is anecdotal and unlikely to apply to the entire Woodridge neighborhood. Appraisers will agree with me :) I am just tempering the hype – “…wait for the recent listed at $1.5M to close. The Sold Price will knock your socks off. :)”

  30. 1530
    SeaH says:

    Maybe each data point to eastsider is fallacied impression that there will be a decline .

    Ardell,
    So if everything is going for over asking , but a quick decline occurs , how does that figure into the Comparative market analysis of a house ?

    What does a buyers market look like if demand for housing is so strong? I think eastsider would like to know also , since he’s a bear in this market .

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1528

  31. 1531
    ruxpert says:

    Explosion Of ‘Zoom Towns’ In Pacific Northwest Cause Home Prices To Skyrocket
    January 27, 2021
    https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/01/27/zoom-towns

  32. 1532
    Eastsider says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1530 – I’m not a bear since I have no plan to investing in this RE market in foreseeable future. I think current risk reward is horrible and you can do much better with your money elsewhere. The ‘big’ guys Invitation Homes and AH4R are not in the Seattle market either. They are far more sophisticated investors than most people here, clearly.

  33. 1533
    Seah says:

    I’ve heard about those companies . Borned out of the Great Recession .
    I’m sure more sophisticated investors have deeper pockets than we do to compete in a buyers market .

    I’m building a way to get down payment and cash flow strong enough for this market . Should I do overkill?

    RE: Eastsider @ 1532

  34. 1534
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1530

    Declines are rarely “quick”. They are painfully slow. Painful to the sellers who ride the market down.

    Up is fast because it takes 1 to 5 days for buyers to bid a property up from $900k to $1.2M.

    Let’s say the next house lists at $1.2M. It may sell at asking. Just had one like that. The appraisal was 7k short, but of no consequence. The extreme bid up doesn’t happen if the seller lists at the neighbor’s recent bid up price.

    For there to be a buyer’s market you need 10 on market and only 3 buyers for the 10. The one I did today had 20 offers, so getting down to 3 buyers for every 10 houses will take some time. A very long time.

    To answer your specific question, the Comparative Market Analysis won’t change initially. The homes will be overpriced. Take the first scenario in reverse. Home listed at $1.2M sells for $900k. $900k to $1.2M takes a few days with 15 to 25 offers. But in reverse. That house listed at $1.2M could take 18 months to sell at $900k. The overpriced listings build up week to week until there are 10 houses for every 3 buyers. That’s a Buyer’s Market and it doesn’t happen overnight or quickly. Usually 18 months or so.

    Coming back from vacation tomorrow.

  35. 1535
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Seah @ 1533 – My comments about expensive market mostly apply to investors because RE is only one of multiple investment choices. For prospective homeowners, the calculus is very different. If you are going to live in a house for 30 years, it really does not matter what price you pay for the house. Many people buy homes they fall in love with and not just any home. And they are willing to ‘overpay’ to get their dream homes. Over long term, home prices track inflation. That said, if you ‘overpay’ for a house, it may not feel good when it ‘loses’ value. Just make sure you can afford the payments in a downturn.

  36. 1536
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1528
    I’ve told Eastsider 10 times that rents don’t go down substantially in a recession and he still doesn’t believe me. I’ve told him 20 times affordability and housing prices have a very loose correlation at best and he still says otherwise. I share your frustration.

    Sometimes you just let nature take it’s course. Eastsider doesn’t understand real estate and never will no matter what you tell him.

  37. 1537
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1535
    Please stop giving advice. You are completely wrong and if others follow your bad advice, they will be poor. Both Ardell and I want to help people become wealthy, not hurt them. You are hurting readers financially.

    It’s absolutely a big deal to get a good deal on your home. If someone can buy with equity, they can access that in an emergency situation. If they have a higher appetite for risk like me, they can sell to cash out equity and buy more. A home is absolutely an investment. About 90% of my money comes from real estate and 10% comes from my diversified 401k which I’ve “invested” in since I started working for money. A good deal on a property should be a high priority for any buyer.

  38. 1538
    ruxpert says:

    Change Seattle’s city charter to solve homelessness? It’s tricky
    Seattle business leaders and lobbyists are pushing a voter initiative to address street homelessness by changing the city’s charter, which isn’t done often. Their plan would require Seattle to quickly provide more shelter, housing, and services — and the city would also have to keep parks and sidewalks clear of encampments. This all raises challenging issues, advocates for homeless people say. ( The Seattle Times)

  39. 1539
    Erik says:

    Month/month Consumer price index for March is up .6%

    Year/year consumer price index for March is 2.6%

    Gas up 9.1% month/month and up 22.5% year/year.

    I’m pretty confident the Biden family is getting money from OPEC somehow. Hunter and Joe already got caught stealing from America and nobody cared because fake news tricked the sheep. I try not to get political, but this is obvious. Same reason insulin 5X’d. Slow Joe is getting paid by big pharma.

    I bet if the consumer price index goes up to 3.5% year/year, mortgage rates will go up. Fed will start tapering support to beat down inflation. If you can refinance, I’d do it now to take advantage of rates because they may go up in a few months.

  40. 1540
    Eastsider says:

    Here is another article on institutional buying by foreign pension funds. They are mostly “buying in bulk or building single-family rental homes specifically for rentals.”

    That Suburban Home Buyer Could Be a Foreign Government
    Overseas investors turn to America’s single-family rentals
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-suburban-home-buyer-could-be-a-foreign-government-11618306380

    The overseas investors are following in the footsteps of many big U.S. investment firms and pension funds, which started buying single-family homes on a large scale in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    Foreign investors barely registered in these markets a few years ago. Now, they account for nearly a third of institutional investment in single-family rental homes, said Alex Foshay, head of international capital markets at real-estate services firm Newmark.

  41. 1541
    SeaH says:

    I’m expecting some inflation also .
    RE: Erik @ 1539

  42. 1542
    SeaH says:

    It’s nothing new . Historically most foreign buyers end up selling a loss . Think Japan in the 80/ . RE: Eastsider @ 1540

  43. 1543
    Eastsider says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1542 – SFHs is new.

  44. 1544
    Blurtman says:

    One view is that there is so much debt around the world, that the only way out is through inflation, paying back nominal debt obligations with currency that is worth less. If so, get deep into assets. The worst place to be would be all in cash. And if you are a decent earner, but asset poor, no soup for you! The low earners will get stimmy spiffs, which will keep them supplied with Olde English 800, 30 year auto loans and subsidized housing. But you will get nothing, except the bill.

  45. 1545
    disasteraverted says:

    By Blurtman @ 1544:

    One view is that there is so much debt around the world, that the only way out is through inflation, paying back nominal debt obligations with currency that is worth less. If so, get deep into assets. The worst place to be would be all in cash. And if you are a decent earner, but asset poor, no soup for you! The low earners will get stimmy spiffs, which will keep them supplied with Olde English 800, 30 year auto loans and subsidized housing. But you will get nothing, except the bill.

    Yep, that checks. Trying to pull the trigger on a SFH ASAP, it’s really hard, but it seems at least 60/40 it’s not going to get better in the next 3-5 years.

  46. 1546
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 1539

    Agreed, Crime Biden is glaring.
    Albeit, both wings of the DemoRub are corrupt like the cancerous collusion cover-ups ‘looking the other way’.
    I doubt having a home/rental will protect from the spreading cancer. Something else is required.

    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/04/13/covid-19-response-resembles-holocaust-tactics.aspx

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/we-were-creating-story-our-focus-was-get-trump-out-cnn-director-busted-undercover-veritas

  47. 1547
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1546
    I’ve been following Dr. Mercola for about the past 8 years for health information. I agree with him on most everything health related. He’s ahead of his time in many ways and I’ll checkout this article.

  48. 1548

    I wanted to buy a house in Flint Michigan when they were $5,000. The prices are up but maybe still cheap enough. A disaster that you know will eventually be cleared up before my children die is my idea of a good buy for “wealth building”.

  49. 1549
    disasteraverted says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1548:

    I wanted to buy a house in Flint Michigan when they were $5,000. The prices are up but maybe still cheap enough. A disaster that you know will eventually be cleared up before my children die is my idea of a good buy for “wealth building”.

    Why didn’t I think of that, that’s a great idea! Kind of a pain to manage, but I do have a brother somewhat near by in MI.

  50. 1550
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1548
    Somewhat related, how come Pt Robert’s properties aren’t on fire-sale? I was looking at one rambler there pretty close, but it just didn’t seem cheap enough for something we’d have to buy and hold for X months before we could fix it up with all the restrictions (we can fly or boat in, but hard to do that with a load from Home Depot).

    Based on that home going pending, I’d guess they got a decent price… they were asking 15-20% over what they bought it for near the start of COVID. Probably never set foot in it.

  51. 1551
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1549
    Please don’t do that. You are sitting on a real estate gold mine in Seattle and Eastside and you want to buy in Flint Michigan? Just buy something in Seattle or Eastside and sell it in a few years and cash a big check. It’s that easy.

  52. 1552
    Brianna says:

    RE: Erik @ 1551

    Idk, it seems that Seattle is quickly becoming
    a more hostile place to be a landlord: Seattle City Council OKs plan to provide free legal counsel to those facing eviction
    komonews.com/news/local/seattle-city-council-oks-plan-to-provide-free-legal-counsel-to-those-facing-eviction

    And all this on top of the current high house prices- It seems to me it would be hard to rent a place high enough to cover your mortgage payment.

  53. 1553
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 1551
    I hear you. I took a cursory look, and it doesn’t seem like there are great deals there right now (may be a few).

    I still think it was an excellent thought. Especially when all the “lead in the water” business was in the news. Just buy with cash and leave it vacant? In a decade it will appreciate.

    I agree Seattle (Metro) is much more desirable, but I can’t imagine a super depressed place like Flint (at the height of it’s disaster), wouldn’t be a better investment.

  54. 1554
    Erik says:

    RE: Brianna @ 1552
    I lose money on cash flow after I buy a rental. The last house I bought in Rainier View in 2019 that I’ve talked about the most on here, I lose about $600/mo. That one deal at this point has increased my net worth $200k to $250k approximately. I have a feeling the price will get much higher the next few years increasing my net worth further. Then multiply that net worth increase by the number of rentals you own and it’s a lot of money for not doing a whole lot.

    I don’t know your financial position, but if $600/mo is too much, live in it and sell it in 2 years. Take that $150k profit and start buying more negative cash flow real estate and increase your net worth. Take out HELOCs on your rentals if you want more security. If you get low, sell a rental and get paid. It’s only scary starting out because $5000 seems like a lot of money. After you have some rentals that increase in value, risk goes down and you can weather pretty much any financial storm.

    You know what place is even worse than Seattle for landlords? San Francisco. Real estate prices in San Francisco is about double what they are in Seattle. Seattle will reach San Francisco prices at some point. The city not being nice to landlords doesn’t seem to affect the price.

  55. 1555
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1553
    It’s a fun idea and would be a great story to tell around the water cooler.

    If you follow the boring process of buying in Seattle or Eastside, over time you’ll be rich. I believe you have a rental and a primary? You did great! You are talented! Keep adding! Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work.

  56. 1556
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 1555
    Actually at the moment I just have a condo I’m living in. Looking to add an SFR. We have a decent bit of cash, so I was hoping to buy a SFR as a primary w/ loan and then get another investment property if things pull back/are auction properties. But haven’t had much success for a lot of reasons.

  57. 1557
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1556
    That’s a great plan as long as the properties are in great areas near the tech scene. It seems like you are doing things right and you are on your way up. Keep buying. After a while, prices will keep going up and you’ll have lower stress than when you started. Real estate investing is very low stress once you are established with 5 or more rentals because your net worth should be a lot higher than when you started.

    I was a poor and single, struggling aerospace engineer when I started buying real estate. I just kept moving and selling to raise more capital. Right now, I’m sure I have a lot higher net worth than most tech workers. I did nothing special other than kept buying negative cash flow real estate and watching values go up. Remember, it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon. There’s wrong with selling to take a profit to buy more. If you have $300k profit in the bank and $400k in HELOCs you can pull, your stress will be much lower. The more real estate you can hold, the more wealth you can create.

  58. 1558
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: Erik @ 1557

    Thanks for the encouragement. I should have listened to you earlier, I’d have a ton more equity.

  59. 1559
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1558
    No way man. You’ve done great. Comparing is very dangerous, and I’d stay away from that if I were you. I was single for a very long time, which makes it way easier to do all this stuff. It sounds like you’ve been married and happy and all that, which is wonderful, but a time sucker all the same.

  60. 1560
    Bumble says:

    Erik, it sounds like RE has been working very well for you, and I’m sincerely happy for you and your growing family. I also applaud your desire to help others succeed. I mean that. But I want to suggest that your positive RE investment experience is not not necessarily something others can replicate.

    First, you started buying real estate at one of the best possible times in one of the fastest growing regions in the nation. If I understand your posts correctly, your model depends upon rapidly appreciating home values so you can buy real estate, let it appreciate quickly, then pull equity (borrow), and reinvest (buy more real estate, maybe at auction). Will explosive price trends continue in Seattle? Personally I’m bullish, but who knows?

    Second, not everyone has your risk tolerance. In fact, almost no one has your risk tolerance.

    Third, you put a lot of sweat equity and know-how into your purchases. Not everyone has the time or skill to remodel an investment property.

    Consider the possibility that your positive experience was a unique combination of hard work, personal strengths, and lucky timing. You want to help people, but you might be be doing a disservice to other types of people by promoting your experience as a simple, repeatable model for everyone to succeed. I don’t think it is.

    For most of us, buying a primary residence, and maybe even one or two investment properties, is the most real estate we can handle, and the most real estate a well-balanced investment portfolio can justify.

  61. 1561
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1560
    I actually started in 2003 and bought in north Everett, a very bad place to invest. I bought a remodel way too big for my finances and experience. I worked on it everyday for years only to lose it in a short sale.

    I watched the market peak and tank and bought at the bottom in Kirkland. I made $16/hr when I bought in Everett and had a challenging design engineering job. I refinanced to get money to fix my place. I peed in a jug and pooped at the McDonald’s restroom until I got my plumbing working. Then I rented rooms to scummy Everett people to generate cash. The point is that we all have challenges. The people on here make a lot more money than I did when I started, which makes the whole thing way easier and more comfortable. They can just pay people to do the work, where I was too poor. They need to quit making excuses as the excuses only hurt them.

    I’m amazed at how hard people will work for someone else. If they applied half that effort to real estate, they’d be able to retire in 10 years.

    I had no money when I started, so I bought, fixed, and sold for profit. Then I reinvested the money. I made about $100k on the Kirkland condo when I sold. I was able to buy more units with the proceeds from the sale. One of the units I lived in. The unit I lived in was a condo over the water I bought at the auction I kept for 4 years and made about $250k profit on that one. I lived in it while remodeling for a couple years and rented it a couple years before buying a new project to work on while I lived in it. At that point I had cash and my remodeling was thankfully over. No more living in drywall dust.

    I kept buying and values kept appreciating. I invested the real estate cash in the stock market, and that helped too. My real estate slush fund is bigger than my 401k I’ve contributed to for 18 years. At this point, I’m pretty comfortable with my investments and I make a lot more money at my job. I’ve added to my 401k since my first job in 2003. My real estate wealth accounts for 90% of my net worth. 401k is a joke in comparison. I think this diversified 401k mentality and saving your paycheck was told to keep people poor and working for money longer. Eastsider for example will not be talked out of his poor mentality. People get angry when you tell them that real estate is much faster and lucrative than adding to a diversified 401k.

  62. 1562
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1560
    Get a property manager and a CPA. Owning 10 is the same as owning 1 if you have a good property manager. I do nothing because my wife does the accounting and bill paying. Property managers do all the work for me. My cpa does my taxes. Once I pass a property off to my leasing agent, my work is done. If I sell, I call ardell and she gets me top price with zero hassle. She’s my favorite, although I like my Seattle property manager as well. Ardell is already in your network. RPA is my favorite property management company in Seattle. I use Langabeer for taxes. Ardell sells for me. Now you can setup the same system.

    Please listen to me on this. The software people on this site will keep you poor with bad advice. Get the system setup and keep adding. Only buy in Seattle or Eastside. Your net worth will skyrocket over 10 years.

    After you have a high net worth, you can cash out and go in the S&P like these software people do. That’s an exit strategy, that’s not how you build wealth.

  63. 1563
    ruxpert says:

    Biden’s Equity-Focused ‘Infrastructure’ Plan Seeks to Crush Single-Family Zoning
    https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=62152
    —-

    Biden’s infrastructure plan calls for cities to limit single-family zoning and instead build affordable housing
    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2021/04/14/zoning-biden-infrastructure-bill-would-curb-single-family-housing/7097434002/

  64. 1564
    Bumble says:

    RE: Erik @ 1562

    I don’t disagree that a lifetime of dutifully saving wages, just to pay for basic needs during retirement, is a bit like modern peasantry. My point was that few people are well-suited for your high-leverage, real-estate heavy model for wealth creation. There are proven alternatives that should not be so quickly dismissed.

    In my profession, I work with hundreds of wealthy locals. Most of them made and maintain their wealth in businesses. Sometimes privately owned business, other times publicly traded businesses. Most of these folks own valuable real estate, but that isn’t how they made most of their wealth. They almost always own a primary residence, and many of them own a second home and/or an investment property. Very few of them own more than one or two residential investment properties.

    Having grown up relatively poor, I paid close attention to what worked for others. Your model, while clearly successful for you, seems to be an outlier in my experience. Your success may be difficult for others to reproduce.

    I’m a big fan of diversification. I’m in my 30s and I have invested in 2 graduate degrees which make me a high earner, 2 SFHs for personal use, 1 small business, and a lot of publicly traded stocks. All of those investments have been performing very well. If I drop one basket, I still have a lot of eggs in the other baskets. When an investment opportunity arises in one category, I can draw from the other categories to capitalize. I feel financially nimble.

    So here are Bumble’s suggested alternatives to aggressive real estate leveraging:

    Get training in a high-demand field or skill. Building wealth is much easier if you have a valuable skill.

    Start a business. Or work your way to co-owner/partner in an existing business. Or work for a company with good stock options and a bright future, even if it means earning less initially.

    I’ll say it again, start a business! Hang your own shingle. Make it profitable, take pride in your creation, enjoy working on your own terms, then sell the business and retire. Owning business shares is key.

    Max out your annual retirement contribution if you can.

    Buy a primary residence for less than you can afford, with monthly payments that leave you a lot of money left over for other investments. If you have the stomach to be a landlord, consider buying one or two investment properties, or renting out your primary residence when you move to a new one.

    These are the strategies I have seen working for others and for my own family. They are worth considering.

  65. 1565
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1561 – Well done, Erik! A true Horatio Alger story. So inspiring that I am moved to resubmit your application for membership to the Sammamish Country Club and Center for Equestrian Excellence. You’ll have to work with me a bit on your story though. Ditch the reference to Everett and replace it with something a lot more respectable, but not too tony, like maybe Issaquah. Also, the members generally frown on doing physical labor themselves, so instead, I suggest you say you hired a crew of born again Christian former MS-13 gang members. That tugs at your heart strings just a bit, and shows creativity. Play your cards right, and that maroon jacket with smartly arrayed gold shoulder epaulets may be yours.

    Oh, dear Sammamish, shiny city on the lake,
    How all are famished, to try to gain a stake.
    Welcome to all, who have what it takes.
    Oh, dear Sammamish, may prices never break.

  66. 1566
    Mikal says:

    By ruxpert @ 1563:

    Biden’s Equity-Focused ‘Infrastructure’ Plan Seeks to Crush Single-Family Zoning
    https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=62152
    —-

    Biden’s infrastructure plan calls for cities to limit single-family zoning and instead build affordable housing
    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2021/04/14/zoning-biden-infrastructure-bill-would-curb-single-family-housing/7097434002/

    Is that somehow a bad thing? Shouldn’t the close in areas be built up?

  67. 1567
    MIKAL says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1546 – You want to show you’re completely nuts…. post how you somehow agree with Donald Trump or somehow think he did a good job and was good for democracy. Do you watch the Twilight Zone and think it’s real?

  68. 1568
    MIKAL says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1535 – Or pick and choose. I paid 233,000 for a fixer by Northgate in 2012. It’s valued at almost 800,000 now. Planning to sell in a year. Please keep telling me those great stories about how real estate is a poor investment.

  69. 1569
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1564
    Thanks. I still work a job and contribute 20% in my 401k, plus whatever the company matches. At this point, it feels like adding to my 401k is a waste of money because the real estate is so much more lucrative. I just want enough cash flow to not have to work.

    I don’t agree that being leveraged in real estate is risky. Having equity in your properties and hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank doesn’t feel risky. I was at a much higher risk when I only worked my job and didn’t own a bunch of real estate.

  70. 1570
    Erik says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1568
    That’s freaking awesome! You nailed it! Very low work and a very high return. You bought at the bottom and are selling near the top of a huge period appreciation period from 2012 to 2022.

  71. 1571
    Eastsider says:

    By MIKAL @ 1568:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1535 – Or pick and choose. I paid 233,000 for a fixer by Northgate in 2012. It’s valued at almost 800,000 now. Planning to sell in a year. Please keep telling me those great stories about how real estate is a poor investment.

    So you bought at the bottom and is a genius!

    Tell you what. I bought $50k of the boring stock COST. I have collected a lot of dividends, including at least a couple massive ‘special’ dividend check which I reinvested. Costco CEOs did all the work (no fixer upper though). I now have a cool $2.5m return for a $50k investment with no effort on my part. How about that?

    If you want to play this game…

  72. 1572
    ruxpert says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1567

    https://youtu.be/3rfZmnfzz-Y

    hehe, I’ll let you bring the nuts to/for the DemoRub peanut-gallery distraction trap racket, dear Mikal
    I don’t do the DemoRub dance! ;-)

  73. 1573
    MIKAL says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1572 – You’re rubbing something.

  74. 1574
    MIKAL says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1571 – If you did good for you, but you seem a little light in the brains to pull off something like that.

  75. 1575
    ruxpert says:

    Tech growth in Seattle area shows signs of slowing, report says
    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2021/04/15/cbre-seattle-sees-dip-in-tech-job-postings.html

    The CBRE report, titled “Tech boom, interrupted?” pointed out some key differences between different metros across the country.


    Tech Boom, Interrupted?
    2020’s Impact on Tech Industry Hiring and Location Strategy
    https://www.cbre.com/thewayforward/2020s-impact-on-tech-industry-hiring-and-location-strategy

  76. 1576
    Eastsider says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1574 – I know people who made a killing in BTC, TSLA, and even the old school AAPL. I’m sure they are all lightweight to this RE genius here. I’d be too embarrassed to brag about one lucky success in public. If you are on Forbes list, please forgive my ignorance. Otherwise, don’t do this to anyone you know nothing about.

  77. 1577
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1575 – WA is too woke for even tech business. No gas powered car in 2030! Tax capital gains that is the primary compensation for successful tech entrepreneurs? This is a sure way to kill the golden goose. Even Elon is moving to Texas! Amazon may leave the state if Bezos finds a new home.

  78. 1578
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1568 – Nice work! Wow! What is your thinking for waiting one more year? Just curious, I’m sure you have good reasoning.

  79. 1579
    disasteraverted says:

    Good thoughts, @Bumble.

    @Erik – what do you think about West Seattle? Is that close in enough for you?

  80. 1580
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1571
    When did you buy? I met an old guy at jiffy lube in Kirkland driving an Escalade that invested in Costco. He owned a ski resort and married his real estate agent.

    I was single and told him that I was looking for hot babes and was impressed with what Kirkland had to offer. He told me to move to Laguna beach. I told him laguna beach is no place for a poor engineer and that it requires money to attract women down there. He agreed and took back his advice.

  81. 1581
    Erik says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1579
    Love West Seattle. It’s my favorite place in Seattle. That’s why most of my rentals are in west Seattle. Pay the money and stay on the admiral/alki beach side. I lived on alki point in that condo over the water. It was awesome. Then I lived in Highpoint, which is also west Seattle, and watched Somalians fighting each other and vandalizing cars. Bad area. Not as bad as north Everett, but still bad. I never lived near Fauntleroy, but that area is beautiful too.

    I use to go to this convenience store that was also a bar in west Seattle. It’s near Fauntleroy. Fun place!

  82. 1582
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1571
    This has turned into a penis measuring contest.

  83. 1583
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1582 – The pot calling the kettle black…

  84. 1584
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1583
    This is a website for kids Eastsider. You are 70 and competing with 20 and 30 year olds.

    I’m not rich at all. I use to be really poor and I’m proud I got out of impoverished north Everett. I’ve been on this site a long time and I think people are glad to finally see me pull myself out of the gutter. I was probably the poorest person on here and maybe I still am. For many years and I talked about the struggles that go with poverty. I applied for food stamps in 2008 and barely missed the cutoff.

  85. 1585
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Erik @ 1580 – There are many people who got extremely wealthy investing in local stocks – COST, AMZN, SBUX, MSFT… There are far fewer RE barons.

  86. 1586
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1565
    Thanks, it’s nice to not be so poor.

    I would be honored if samammish county club would even consider me. I’ve taken many showers since north Everett, but I still feel dirty. You can take a whore off the streets, but you can’t take the streets off a whore.

    Really though, I’d love to receive a maroon jacket and meet that successful brother in law of yours. I’ll take my caviar on the side with a glen, any glen will do.

  87. 1587
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1585
    If you commented years ago that you just picked up some AMZN, or TSLA on so and so date, then it is easier to believe that you are as savvy as you claim. Erik has documented his moves in real time. Everyone who has been on Seattle bubble for a while (like me) knows how well he has done. This is why I ask prognosticators like yourself where they are putting their money. You acted like I was asking you a strange or offensive question when I did this. I hope you can appreciate the difference between Erik’s claims and yours. I’m not looking for stock tips, I’m trying to weigh the veracity of your investment opinions, as you seem to have a lot of them.

  88. 1588
    seah says:

    I think of Paul Allen ‘s Vulcan ventures, real estate play … I think it’s owns most of SLU.
    RE: Eastsider @ 1585

  89. 1589
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1587 – Unless someone uses their real name, you should always discount what they write online. You do not have to believe I invested in any of these successful NW companies. But there are countless of them in this region. You meet many of them at local shareholders meetings (well, if they resume.) I was being sarcastic replying to some dubious hypes here. Because they can’t repeat their ‘success’ yet they think you should do what they did at the most opportune time.

  90. 1590
    Eastsider says:

    RE: seah @ 1588 – Allen had competent managers that made a fortune for him in the SLU investment. Allen also lost a ton of money in some telecom investment. He is not necessarily the smart behind his investment success,

    Kemper is the real successful developer in the area.

  91. 1591
    OA says:

    By Bumble @ 1564:

    RE: Erik @ 1562

    I don’t disagree that a lifetime of dutifully saving wages, just to pay for basic needs during retirement, is a bit like modern peasantry. My point was that few people are well-suited for your high-leverage, real-estate heavy model for wealth creation. There are proven alternatives that should not be so quickly dismissed.

    In my profession, I work with hundreds of wealthy locals. Most of them made and maintain their wealth in businesses. Sometimes privately owned business, other times publicly traded businesses. Most of these folks own valuable real estate, but that isn’t how they made most of their wealth. They almost always own a primary residence, and many of them own a second home and/or an investment property. Very few of them own more than one or two residential investment properties.

    Having grown up relatively poor, I paid close attention to what worked for others. Your model, while clearly successful for you, seems to be an outlier in my experience. Your success may be difficult for others to reproduce.

    I’m a big fan of diversification. I’m in my 30s and I have invested in 2 graduate degrees which make me a high earner, 2 SFHs for personal use, 1 small business, and a lot of publicly traded stocks. All of those investments have been performing very well. If I drop one basket, I still have a lot of eggs in the other baskets. When an investment opportunity arises in one category, I can draw from the other categories to capitalize. I feel financially nimble.

    So here are Bumble’s suggested alternatives to aggressive real estate leveraging:

    Get training in a high-demand field or skill. Building wealth is much easier if you have a valuable skill.

    Start a business. Or work your way to co-owner/partner in an existing business. Or work for a company with good stock options and a bright future, even if it means earning less initially.

    I’ll say it again, start a business! Hang your own shingle. Make it profitable, take pride in your creation, enjoy working on your own terms, then sell the business and retire. Owning business shares is key.

    Max out your annual retirement contribution if you can.

    Buy a primary residence for less than you can afford, with monthly payments that leave you a lot of money left over for other investments. If you have the stomach to be a landlord, consider buying one or two investment properties, or renting out your primary residence when you move to a new one.

    These are the strategies I have seen working for others and for my own family. They are worth considering.

    Dude right on, love it! And congrats on your success, I think you clearly understand how to build wealth. I’m also a big believer in having equity in or owning a business (in addition to owning public stocks). My career has been in software startups, I love it because there’s so much liquidity in this space. And once you reach the VP level your equity stake (usually stock options) gets pretty significant. If course it’s all worthless if the company ends up not making it, but over time you get better at identifying which companies have a chance and which ones are going nowhere.

    I also see the same trend regarding owning real estate by high net worth individuals. The ones that I know own their primary home and usually have one more house somewhere out of town that they frequent. Some rent it out, others don’t.

    Regarding public stocks, do you mostly own individual stocks or do you index primarily? I’m talking about in your taxable account.

  92. 1592
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1571:

    By MIKAL @ 1568:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1535 – Or pick and choose. I paid 233,000 for a fixer by Northgate in 2012. It’s valued at almost 800,000 now. Planning to sell in a year. Please keep telling me those great stories about how real estate is a poor investment.

    So you bought at the bottom and is a genius!

    Tell you what. I bought $50k of the boring stock COST. I have collected a lot of dividends, including at least a couple massive ‘special’ dividend check which I reinvested. Costco CEOs did all the work (no fixer upper though). I now have a cool $2.5m return for a $50k investment with no effort on my part. How about that?

    If you want to play this game…

    Right on! The good ole’ underrated dividend growth example. Quality companies that consistently grow their dividends give their investors/owners both amazing price appreciation and increasing passive income over the long term. So getting the best of both worlds, absolutely love it! Congrats!

  93. 1593
    OA says:

    RE: OA @ 1592

    Speaking of Costco, they announced a 12% dividend hike yesterday! So I’m sure you’re enjoying your 12% raise :)

  94. 1594
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1589:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1587 – Unless someone uses their real name, you should always discount what they write online.

    You don’t use your real name, so I’m going to have to discount this statement.

  95. 1595
    Eastsider says:

    RE: OA @ 1593 – The other NW stocks also created countless multi-millionaires in the area. There is nothing wrong with RE investment. But it is important to do the homework if one wants to be successful.

  96. 1596
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1594 – That’s the right attitude! That’s why I’ve been ignoring you LOL.

  97. 1597
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1596 – You don’t use your real name, so I’m going to have to discount this statement.

  98. 1598
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1589
    You went from $50k to $2.5M I’m Costco stock. At the time you wrote that Costco was at $368. $2.5M/$50k = 50X. $368/50 = $7.36. Costco was at those levels in 1987, which took 34 years to go up that much.

    You went to college and had to save $50k in the 80’s to invest that much in Costco. I’ll assume you were 30. 30 34 = 64. That makes you 64 years old approximately.

    Your previous admissions:
    -You own your own home in Redmond
    -You work in Software
    -You are 64 years old

    Like OA, I tend to believe you are lying.

    OA’s claims:
    -He’s 32
    -works in software
    -married with 2 kids
    -parents are poor and didn’t help him
    -paid his way through 4 years at UW
    -Owns his own home on the Eastside
    -Only invests in diversified index funds
    -Has enough money to retire

    OA is definitely a liar, no doubt. You are a 64 year old software worker. That seems too old to be working in software, so I’m doubting your story as well.

    Why do software people lie? Same with Wreckingbull. He says he’s retired and later he says he’s working. I don’t like liars. OA is a huge liar. Wreckingbull got caught lying red handed. Your story is possible, but seems unlikely. You are a 64 year old man in software? In software, you should have made enough to retire years ago. Something is fishy with your story.

    Anybody that believes one thing OA says is expensive gullible. OA is a trashy code monkey that lies online to boost his low self esteem. OA, I have no problem confronting you in real life. I’ll be at the auction in July. We can meet at Juanita Pub and you can see if I’m real.

  99. 1599
    OA says:

    RE: Erik @ 1598

    haha, triggered much? Envy is a hell of a drug. Just move on!

    And I’m 33 now :) Believe that!

  100. 1600
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1599
    I don’t believe anything you say. You are a lying code monkey that got caught lying. Your stories are lies because they are impossible for anyone that can add. Your story is that you graduated undergrad and made 4 million your first 7 years out of college by investing in slow growth index funds. I almost forgot, you are a builder too. You paid off college debt, supported a wife and kids, saved enough to retire, and built your own home with zero mortgage your first few years out of undergrad.

    I’ll be at the king county auction on July 9th. You previously threatened to hurt me at the auction. If you want to hurt me, I’ll meet you at Juanita Pub in Kirkland after the auction around 4pm. If you confirm, I’ll promise to be there. If my plans change, I’ll let you know.

  101. 1601
    OA says:

    By Erik @ 1600:

    RE: OA @ 1599
    I don’t believe anything you say.

    Just move on Erik! I don’t care.

  102. 1602
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1601
    This should be a community of people that helps one another out. You are giving the community incorrect information because you are lying, which is hurting them financially. Please stop.

    The truth is that anyone with under a $500k net worth should probably start in real estate before the stock market. Diversified index funds are okay once you have $500k invested. Leverage used wisely is not dangerous, and people need to make that connection. Starting out in a 401k with diversified index funds is a huge mistake that keeps employees working their entire lives and you are telling everyone that nasty lie.

    I’m passionate about this because I was told the same lies and had to figure out the truth myself. I was poor longer than necessary because of people feeding me this same diversified index fund garbage that you are pushing.

  103. 1603
  104. 1604
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 1600 – Gentlemen, this affaire d’honneur is but in vain, as the fair Ardell is already spoken for.

  105. 1605
    Bumble says:

    By OA @ 1591:

    Regarding public stocks, do you mostly own individual stocks or do you index primarily? I’m talking about in your taxable account.

    Hey thanks. I plan to move more and more into index funds as I get older (i’m in my late 30s). And I know plenty of very successful people who put 100% of their liquid investments into index funds their whole adult life. But right now we mostly own individual stocks. In our case, the scales are tipped heavily toward individual stocks because of my wife’s excellent stock benefits at work, which have performed extremely well, and we haven’t sold. [Like I said in my last post, owning business shares is key!] So we aren’t a great example of balanced investment at the moment. We’ve actually been meaning to start selling some of those shares and moving the proceeds into index funds. That will be our trend over the next couple decades.

  106. 1606
    ruxpert says:

    Insiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)
    https://thefelderreport.com/2021/04/14/insiders-are-sending-a-pretty-clear-signal-about-the-stock-market-and-the-economy/


    Einhorn: “The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely

  107. 1607
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1605
    You got a education on how to theoretically make money and are teaching it. I went out and built substantial wealth in a short amount of time and am sharing what I learned with others. I have a proven track record.

    Diversifying is a scam taught in books to gullible college kids. The secret is to get really good at one thing and make a millions. Diversify for safety after you are already rich. Otherwise you’ll work until you are 60 and try to feed off what you saved until you eventually die. That’s not a good plan.

  108. 1608
    Erik says:

    RE: Bumble @ 1605
    If this was “Rich Dad Poor Dad” you’d be poor dad and I’d be rich dad.

  109. 1609
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1598:

    You went from $50k to $2.5M I’m Costco stock. At the time you wrote that Costco was at $368. $2.5M/$50k = 50X. $368/50 = $7.36. Costco was at those levels in 1987, which took 34 years to go up that much.

    You forgot about the reinvestment part. Costco’s ‘special’ dividend history – “In 2012, the company paid a large special dividend of $7 per share. It followed this up with outsized special dividend payments in 2015, 2017, and 2020. Last December’s special payout was $10 a share.” – fool.com

    My point is there are multiple paths to accumulating wealth. RE is definitely one path but not the only one. A lot of people have built tremendous wealth holding the stocks I mentioned earlier. RE was intriguing following the crash but not so much today. If you think you can repeat your ‘success’ in RE at the bottom of the bear market, you are being naïve. Sure the market can continue to zoom but I would be circumspect about advising others to invest at these elevated prices.

  110. 1610
    OA says:

    By Bumble @ 1605:

    By OA @ 1591:

    Regarding public stocks, do you mostly own individual stocks or do you index primarily? I’m talking about in your taxable account.

    Hey thanks. I plan to move more and more into index funds as I get older (i’m in my late 30s). And I know plenty of very successful people who put 100% of their liquid investments into index funds their whole adult life. But right now we mostly own individual stocks. In our case, the scales are tipped heavily toward individual stocks because of my wife’s excellent stock benefits at work, which have performed extremely well, and we haven’t sold. [Like I said in my last post, owning business shares is key!] So we aren’t a great example of balanced investment at the moment. We’ve actually been meaning to start selling some of those shares and moving the proceeds into index funds. That will be our trend over the next couple decades.

    Nice, looks like she made it big with the company’s ESPP, congrats!

    Yeah sounds like you’ll be in wealth preservation mode soon so indexing does make sense for you. Best of luck!

  111. 1611
    OA says:

    By Eastsider @ 1609:

    By Erik @ 1598:

    You went from $50k to $2.5M I’m Costco stock. At the time you wrote that Costco was at $368. $2.5M/$50k = 50X. $368/50 = $7.36. Costco was at those levels in 1987, which took 34 years to go up that much.

    You forgot about the reinvestment part. Costco’s ‘special’ dividend history – “In 2012, the company paid a large special dividend of $7 per share. It followed this up with outsized special dividend payments in 2015, 2017, and 2020. Last December’s special payout was $10 a share.” – fool.com

    My point is there are multiple paths to accumulating wealth. RE is definitely one path but not the only one. A lot of people have built tremendous wealth holding the stocks I mentioned earlier. RE was intriguing following the crash but not so much today. If you think you can repeat your ‘success’ in RE at the bottom of the bear market, you are being naïve. Sure the market can continue to zoom but I would be circumspect about advising others to invest at these elevated prices.

    Ding Ding, the drip method!!!

    I don’t understand how it’s sooo hard for some individuals here to understand that there are various ways to accumulate wealth, and it’s a good idea to try and see what works for each person. Arguing whether each method is superior to the other one is a waste of time as that’s purely subjective and depends on your risk tolerance, and so many other factors.

  112. 1612
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1609
    May I ask which year you bought Costco for $50k?

  113. 1613
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1598:

    You went from $50k to $2.5M I’m Costco stock. At the time you wrote that Costco was at $368. $2.5M/$50k = 50X. $368/50 = $7.36. Costco was at those levels in 1987, which took 34 years to go up that much.

    Btw, there are so many ‘errors’ and ‘assumptions’ in your comment that I am not going to bother. But I should point out that Costco stock was certainly trading around $7 in 1995. I hate to correct simple mistakes by engineers if you know what I mean… :(

  114. 1614
    MIKAL says:

    RE: disasteraverted @ 1578 – I’m retiring at 55. Already bought a house at Lake Cushman. Combination of savings and rentals should get me through. The guy that thinks Amazon will leave the state…. Bezos is from here. He may expand in other areas and may move more jobs to Bellevue, but Amazon and those jobs aren’t going anywhere.

  115. 1615

    RE: MIKAL @ 1614

    Gates is “from” here. Bezos is not.

  116. 1616
    MIKAL says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1615 – You’re right… I stand corrected. If I were him dealing with the Seattle City Council and Sawant I’d look at leaving too.

  117. 1617
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1613
    Real estate has a higher probability. Good job getting lucky on a stock 30 years ago.

  118. 1618
    Erik says:

    RE: MIKAL @ 1614
    You are almost there. We kind of have a similar strategy. I will retire when I own 5 condos or houses in Seattle free and clear. I should have a nice chunk of cash too from my retirement funds. I see no point working really hard to be mega rich in my opinion. I just need enough to coast. Big sums of money scare me. I want monthly payments.

  119. 1619
    Eastsider says:

    As I mentioned earlier, there are many stories like this one. $40 investment!

    Jeff Bezos shared a note from a couple that bought 2 shares of Amazon in 1997 – and are now using the proceeds to buy a house after the company’s 172,499% post-IPO run
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeff-bezos-return-amazon-stock-investment-1997-house-sell-amzn-2021-4-1030313497

    In 1997, a couple bought two shares of a new book-selling company for their 12-year-old son. For the years following the purchase, the son wanted to cash in the stock, but the parents insisted he hold.

    24 years later, that online book retailer has become one of the largest corporations in the world, and the family has seen a likely six-digit return on their investment.

    The couple told their story to Jeff Bezos just as the Amazon founder was sitting down to write his final letter to shareholders as CEO.

    In Bezos’ letter published Thursday, he included a copy of the letter from the couple, Mary and Larry, whose surnames were blocked out for privacy.

  120. 1620
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1508

    What The FED Most Fears! ?

    No fear of inflation; threat of deflation
    https://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com/no-fear-of-inflation-threat-of-deflation/

    “Most everyone else (with the exception of Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan) thinks they understand the problem, but their limited understanding doesn’t allow for the subtleties of Fed Chair behavior. Chairman Powell and his “inner circle” want very much for you to focus on inflation. By talking about inflation, they hope that possibly it will spur behavior that might provoke a resurgence of economic activity and stave off the coming economic collapse.”

  121. 1621
    Bumble says:

    By Erik @ 1607:

    RE: Bumble @ 1605
    You got a education on how to theoretically make money and are teaching it. I went out and built substantial wealth in a short amount of time and am sharing what I learned with others. I have a proven track record.

    Diversifying is a scam taught in books to gullible college kids. The secret is to get really good at one thing and make a millions. Diversify for safety after you are already rich. Otherwise you’ll work until you are 60 and try to feed off what you saved until you eventually die. That’s not a good plan.

    Dude, I’m sorry, but anyone who says “diversifying is a scam taught in books to gullible college kids” is missing a thing or two.

    We all draw most of our conclusions about the world from our personal experiences. It is what we know to be true. And that is what you are doing when you tell others to invest in multiple rentals in the Seattle region, just like you did. But some of us have experiences that are not common, or not transferable, or the result of a unique historical moment. We must weigh our own experiences against the experiences of others. Because it was your experience, you seem to think that owning multiple rentals is the only way to generate wealth for people who are just starting out with limited means. That just isn’t true.

    By the way, when I speak about my views of wealth creation, it isn’t just academic, it isn’t just what I saw others do. I am making it too. I grew up poor, spent 10 years in college because no one taught me anything as a child and I had a lot of catching up to do, entered the workforce professionally just 8 years ago, and I already feel kind of retired. If I told you what my week looks like, and what my annual income/asset growth looks like, you’d say I’m lying. It all happened super fast. And I own zero rentals (for now). My experience, though different from yours, has merit too.

  122. 1622
    SeaH says:

    Did you sell yet?
    It’s only equity after you sell .
    RE: Eastsider @ 1613

  123. 1623
    Voight-kampff says:

    Lately I’m finding myself less concerned with real estate and investing and more concerned with societal problems. We’re navigating through strange times, good luck to all of you. Apparently there is no real estate left to buy anyways, so I’m going all in on dogecoin!

  124. 1624
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1623
    Good idea on crypto. Read “The 4th Turning” for more clarity. It won’t tell you what to do, but it will help understand what’s going on. There is likely more social unrest coming.

  125. 1625
    Erik says:

    RE: Voight-kampff @ 1623
    I’m getting spanked in tech and SPACs right now. I’d jump over to dogecoin, but I’m not going to paper hand and sell near the bottom. With my luck, i’d jump from tech and SPACs to dogecoin, and dogecoin crashes.

  126. 1626
    Voight-kampff says:

    RE: Erik @ 1625

    I was half kidding about dogecoin in particular, but I am not kidding about looking hard at other crypto. I did pick up some coinbank on it’s first day(couple days ago). I didn’t think I’d even have a chance with my limit set at $350 per. But a few hours later it was filled and off we go. I got hammered a bit on tech too, but I’ve been buying bits here & there at different times of the year, seems to buffer the worste of it. But we’ll see. With all the Reddit pumping of dogecoin, it just makes me nervous and less inclined, nothing would surprise me at this point though.

  127. 1627
    uwp says:

    I’m not sure why Erik is so convinced that OA is lying. Anyone working locally (or SF) in software for the last decade+ has had an excellent opportunity to get rich enough retire, especially if their spending is under control.

    It is not uncommon for someone senior level with 8+ years of experience to bring down 300k-500k/year if you include equity, and tech stocks have had an incredible run. (Now imagine a dual income household!!)

    OA also mentioned startups, so all bets are off on how much they could accumulate if they held equity pre-IPO. Easy millionaire.

    Methinks Erik enjoys making fun of “code-monkeys” too much to realize how highly they actually get paid.
    https://www.levels.fyi/company/Amazon/salaries/Software-Engineer/SDE-III/

  128. 1628
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 1627
    I started making fun of code monkeys for fun. I thought these low social skill shifty eyed workers would point out they make way more than me, that’s what I would have done if I were a code monkey. Instead, these crazy monkeys started attacking me and it was on.

    “Ooh ohh ahh ahhh, I’m going to attack you at the house auction!” said code monkey OA. At this point, it’s me vs them and I had no choice but to battle it out.

    I’m a middle child in my family. I discovered a weakness so I exploited it as any middle child with tact would have done. They don’t like to be called code monkeys, so I kept bringing it until a couple of them freaked out at me. I was able to find something to get under their skin.

  129. 1629
    Erik says:

    RE: uwp @ 1627
    OA is not a software engineer as he stated previously, he has a business degree from UW. OA owns his own home with no mortgage on the Eastside. He bought land and became a successful builder on his first project. OA comes from a poor family. He paid his way through UW. He has a wife and 2 kids to pay for. Oh yeah, he has enough money to retire. OA said this all when he was 32. OA only invests in diversified index funds, so he’s not striking it rich on a stock.

    Crunch the numbers if you want, but I can tell you this is not feasible. OA is lying because what he says is impossible. If I catch someone in a lie like I caught OA, I cannot continue to believe their lies. When I said that, he threatened to come to the king county auction and hurt me, which further confirms he’s lying if you need the extra proof.

    Read the first paragraph again, it’s complete garbage. OA lied too much and got caught.

  130. 1630
    OA says:

    By uwp @ 1627:

    I’m not sure why Erik is so convinced that OA is lying. Anyone working locally (or SF) in software for the last decade+ has had an excellent opportunity to get rich enough retire, especially if their spending is under control.

    It is not uncommon for someone senior level with 8+ years of experience to bring down 300k-500k/year if you include equity, and tech stocks have had an incredible run. (Now imagine a dual income household!!)

    OA also mentioned startups, so all bets are off on how much they could accumulate if they held equity pre-IPO. Easy millionaire.

    Methinks Erik enjoys making fun of “code-monkeys” too much to realize how highly they actually get paid.
    https://www.levels.fyi/company/Amazon/salaries/Software-Engineer/SDE-III/

    Being a lifelong high saver and working in tech my whole career has been really good to me. I’ve been fortunate and have caught some lucky breaks both in real estate and equity (stock options), in addition to consistently investing my savings since college. I don’t mind being questioned as I’m open to sharing how I got to where I am. It’s the baseless attacks that come as a result of obvious envy.

    Like I’ve said many times before to a certain individual on here, you don’t need to believe me and that’s totally fine with me as I don’t come here for validation. I realize that my case is pretty rare and many won’t be able to relate to or understand.

    By the way I fully agree with Bumble’s post (#1621) above.

  131. 1631
    Erik says:

    RE: OA @ 1630
    You just said this. These are your words…
    “ Erik I’ve been to a few of those auctions in the past that you go to. If I ever come to another one and see you there, I’ll make sure to introduce myself. And I guarantee that you’ll brush your online comments off as sarcasm because there’s no way in hell you’re going to be man enough to call me anything like code monkey to my face.

    So type away keyboard warrior. You have no class, no ethics, and you’re dumber than a rock for putting up your first and last name (before Kary told you to change it) on here with the way you talk and literally confess to doing forbearance fraud and recommending it. Straight up idiot! Lol.”

    You threatened to beat me up or intimidate me when I’m trying to buy an investment. Now you are saying that I’m jealous of you and you are above that. Again, this is inconsistent as is your story of how you paid off your house, student loans, and have enough to retire after 7 years of work. You did all this by putting your paychecks into diversified index funds. That’s the lie businesses are spreading and you fell for it.

    I am focusing on this because these are the lies that keep workers poor and businesses rich. These lies confused me for a while and I want others to see the truth and not believe the lies. When I stopped believing the lies and started investing in real estate is when I went from poor and stressed out to a much higher net worth. The sooner they figure this out, the sooner they can have less financial stress. Voight-Kampff said it perfect. The employee/401k saver lie was created by businesses to keep employees poor and working for their useful life. Those are the real criminals, not people like me.

  132. 1632
    Eastsider says:

    By Erik @ 1631:

    When I stopped believing the lies and started investing in real estate is when I went from poor and stressed out to a much higher net worth.

    RE is just one way to accumulate wealth. By far, (successful) business owners accumulate the most wealth. The list of billionaires is full of entrepreneurs and business owners. Not RE barons. Also, building a business (empire) is much more fulfilling that being a landlord.

    “Code monkeys” are doing extremely well in this part of the country compared to other careers, definitely better than landlords lol. A college kid who started at one of many great local tech companies 5 years ago is easily a millionaire if you include 401k. Btw, a competent “code monkey” has higher IQ than you. Just sayin’

  133. 1633
    SeaH says:

    What your alternative investment if your pessimistic about Seattle RE ? RE: Eastsider @ 1632

  134. 1634
    Eastsider says:

    RE: SeaH @ 1633 – Seattle RE may be expensive, but other areas (e.g. Austin) may be attractive. If you are looking into adding RE in your portfolio, you can invest in (regional) REITs, homebuilders, and other RE related businesses. I haven’t checked but most probably have decent return since market bottom about a decade ago. That said, future return is another matter. Do your homework. There are options.

  135. 1635
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1632
    My real estate portfolio is a business. I find it fulfilling. It’s like running a low effort and high profit business.

    My real estate increased my net worth last year more than a level 6 code monkey’s salary before taxes. Owning real estate in Seattle is like sending a level 6 code monkey to work everyday that doesn’t pay taxes and then stealing his paycheck.

    This world favors landlords over code monkeys. With real estate, you can make money on appreciation, principal pay down, asset depreciation for taxes, cash flow, and government bailouts. Owning rental real estate is a business and it’s not fair to compare a code monkey’s salary to a business. It’s not fair to the code monkey.

  136. 1636
    Erik says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1634
    Definitely invest in Austin. I personally think Seattle is better long term because of its connection with Asia, but Austin is great. If it’s just the city that you don’t believe in, find another city. Don’t let that stop you from investing in real estate.

    You will make a lot more investing in hard assets such as real estate vs paper assets. REITs and real estate stocks have no comparison. The actual real estate is going to make the investor a lot more money.

  137. 1637
    ruxpert says:

    Suburbs of the Rich and Famous
    Seattle’s 6 Most Expensive Suburbs
    Big spenders head east—with one very notable exception.
    https://www.seattlemet.com/home-and-real-estate/2021/04/6-most-expensive-seattle-suburbs-real-estate

  138. 1638
    Whatsmyname says:

    Although Tim’s King County MLS data links no longer work, the Altos charts for Seattle continue to chug along. Has the MAI ever been higher?

  139. 1639

    There’s an article this morning that a 7% WA State Capital Gain Tax may be signed shortly by Gov. Inslee on gains in excess of $250,000. Seems to exclude real estate except when liquidating assets to make the down payment or buy the house.

    Is it mostly about stock and bond sales and not gain on the sale of a primary residence. Not sure about an investment property sale.

    On the one hand they say it won’t impact many people but on the other hand they say it will pull in $550 Million a year.

    They have until tomorrow to hammer out some details…or not…for it to reach Inslee’s desk to sign it.

  140. 1640
    David says:

    By Voight-kampff @ 1626:

    RE: Erik @ 1625

    I was half kidding about dogecoin in particular, but I am not kidding about looking hard at other crypto. I did pick up some coinbank on it’s first day(couple days ago).

    There are over 4,000 crypto currencies now. Flip a coin – get rich. The World is your oyster babaay!

  141. 1641
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1639 – Money is fungible. You sell some stock or a business to buy a home, guess what? You can afford 7% less. Could help decrease RE prices, tho, and property tax revenue. Doh!

  142. 1642
    Brianna says:

    “Market positives say higher lending standards, pandemic mortgage forbearance, and equity growth will dampen the effects of any bubble burst. But the equity argument assumes that home valuations would outpace owed mortgage balances should the market collapse. Of course, the average homeowners’ situation is far better than it was in 2009, but life costs a lot more today than 12 years ago too. ”

    https://realtybiznews.com/will-the-current-boom-housing-market-crash-dive-or-crash-land/98762294/

  143. 1643
    David says:

    That is a staggering tax rate on someone else’s risk. But the people of WA deserve the leaders they choose.RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1639

  144. 1644

    Just finished a snapshot of where home prices should level out for 2021 on the Eastside. Basically a million dollars is the new $850k. These are 3 bedroom+ homes that are not townhomes. I doubled up a couple of zip codes to keep the total sold units at roughly the same at about 2 homes sold a day. Prices are the most recent prices from the last 30 to 40 days.

    A million for Bothell-Northshore SD and Kirkland 98034
    $1.25M for Issaquah and Bellevue 98007/ 08
    $1.35M Woodinville
    $1.4M to $1.5M Redmond 98052 and Sammamish
    $1.6M Bellevue 98006
    $1.9M Kirkland 98033
    $2.6M Bellevue 98004 & 98005

    Kenmore running close to hitting the million mark at $980k. Bothell Not Northshore SD at $905k. For a big drop you dip into the Renton Not Issaquah SD and land at $715k median pretty quickly.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are hand calculated in RealTime by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service).

  145. 1645
    David says:

    The Government is lying about inflation. They will continue to lie. Housing prices will never be allowed to trend down again the rest of our lives.

    The Government cannot afford to pay the higher interest on debt that inflation would require. If the Government raised rates they would go bankrupt on interest payments.

    The Government will always print more money (quantitative easing) to buy bonds to keep housing inflated.

    As the dollar is worth less and less and they allowed housing to deflate then what is the basis of national wealth?

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1644

  146. 1646
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1645
    During the Great Recession, I thought it was not fare how irresponsible landlords got bailed out while people that worked for money got screwed. That was my ah hah moment when I realized I was in the wrong group. Fast forward 10 years and I’m on the right side of the equation and it feels good.

    People that work for money and save are getting screwed during the covid downturn while landlords and businesses are getting bags of money thrown at them. Poor dum dums save in diversified 401k’s while real estate and landlords are getting money thrown at them. It’s so unfair. Those that play the game get rich while wages stagnate and the value of money drops. Biden is screwing the poor dummies that voted for him and they don’t even know it.

  147. 1647
    ruxpert says:

    RE: Erik @ 1646

    and ‘the wrong group’ may be growing?

    Episode 400 – Visions of the Future
    Corbett • 04/24/2021 • 125 Comments
    https://www.corbettreport.com/future/

    https://www.heartcom.org/Wesak2021.htm

    ;-)

  148. 1648
    Eastsider says:

    Seattle ranks 118 out of 300 in the WSJ/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index –

    1 Coeur D’Alene Idaho
    2 Austin-Round Rock Texas
    3 Springfield Ohio
    4 Billings Montana
    5 Spokane-Spokane Valley Washington
    6 Lafayette-West Lafayette Indiana
    7 Reno Nevada
    8 Concord New Hampshire
    9 Manchester-Nashua New Hampshire
    10 Santa Cruz-Watsonville California

    Within WA –
    5 Spokane-Spokane Valley Washington
    43 Bremerton-Silverdale Washington
    48 Yakima Washington
    63 Olympia-Tumwater Washington
    82 Kennewick-Richland Washington
    118 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Washington
    120 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro Oregon-Washington
    263 Bellingham Washington

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/emerging-housing-markets-index-wsj-realtor-com-11619483158

  149. 1649
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1648 – Not sure what you’re getting at here.

    Does this suggest the masses should flee to hope for jobs in CDA (a nice town of 52,000), for its combination of appreciation and someone’s idea of lifestyle potential? Would Bothell possibly be a better comparison than our whole combined SMSA?

    Or does it reassure us that Seattle’s middle of the pack performance means that we shouldn’t be over alarmed at the drivers and level of our recent price growth?

  150. 1650
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1649 – Good morning! I’m not sure why you get triggered so easily by a mere ranking? Perhaps you need your coffee fix!

  151. 1651
    N says:

    @Eastsider 1648 – Of note for CDA Idaho, the medium price is up 47% in the past year. I keep thinking back to 2017 when many of the same things were said (ie it will take years to get enough inventory) and a year later with higher rates things changed, at least for a bit. Very little focus is ever on the demand side and that ebbs and flows too and is probably more important than the supply side.

    With that said, we finally jumped in and got under contract on a home for our family. Finally found the property with a great ADU (may be the first one that was actually legally permitted we saw) in West Seattle. It was the 3rd property we had bid on since December (1st one had upwards of 10 bids, second one only had 2 bids and this one had 3 but we didn’t have to escalate to get it). In the end it made more sense to get the ADU we wanted for income and spend a good bit more rather than competing with 20 other offers on the $850k homes with no ADU that get bid up $100-200k. These homes tended to have larger and nicer main homes than the non ADU homes at the lower price point too.

  152. 1652
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1650 – Triggered? Do I have to write out the LOL’s? Just looking for a clarification. I can see why you wouldn’t want to provide one, though. :)

  153. 1653
    Eastsider says:

    By N @ 1651:

    @Eastsider 1648 – Of note for CDA Idaho, the medium price is up 47% in the past year. I keep thinking back to 2017 when many of the same things were said (ie it will take years to get enough inventory) and a year later with higher rates things changed, at least for a bit. Very little focus is ever on the demand side and that ebbs and flows too and is probably more important than the supply side.

    The trouble with 47% yoy gain is local will be priced out. Nobody gets a 50% raise in a year, more like over 10 years. Unless they can build a lot of houses fast, it will become a retirement/vacation destination over time. “Supply” and “demand” can fluctuate wildly. During the bubble, people lined up overnight to buy a condo. Within a year, the “demand” disappeared and there was a glut.

  154. 1654
    ruxpert says:

    Goodbye, Seattle — residents flock to South King County

    South King County sees influx of former Seattleites
    Jeff Hickey’s three-decade stint in Seattle came to an end when the rent on his Queen Anne home rose by $300 a month. He’s among Seattleites flooding into some South King County cities, craving more room, better affordability and access to green space. Signs suggest the trend accelerated during the pandemic, and businesses are increasingly following suit. See which cities have become the hottest spots.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/housebound-seattle-residents-move-to-south-king-county-for-more-room-during-the-pandemic

  155. 1655
    ruxpert says:

    ‘Mom And Pop’ Landlords Dying On The Vine As Un-Evictable Tenants Enjoy Pandemic Protections
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mom-and-pop-landlords-dying-vine-un-evictable-tenants-enjoy-pandemic-protections

  156. 1656
    MIKAL says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1655 – That’s me and I have received every months rent near downtown Seattle. Lucky maybe, but read the article. Some of those landlords aren’t doing the things they need to for keeping your apartments working. You can always spin anything. Rents are starting to climb again. They will only go up now as the economy will go into overdrive with everyone more than ready to go out and spend.

  157. 1657
    Eastsider says:

    By MIKAL @ 1656:

    You can always spin anything. Rents are starting to climb again.

    Haha, I agree with your first statement :) I think you are referring to either Seattle Times or SeattlePI’s articles, both quoting Apartment List reports. A key sentence in the Seattle Times article states – “For the second month in a row, median Seattle rents for new leases increased from February to March, inching up 2.2%, according to the rent-tracking firm Apartment List.” (Emphasis added)

    I just looked up Zumper and rents for Studio/1BR/2BR are all flat in recent months.

    https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/seattle-wa

    Apartment List even recognizes that they have a “luxury bias in (their) rent data.”

    Rents are seasonal, i.e. it’s always cheaper to rent in December than in June. So after adjusting for seasonality, Seattle apartment rents may still be declining! Apartment List report says as much – “Seattle’s year-over-year rent growth (of -14.6%) lags the state average of -4.2%, as well as the national average of 2.3%.” https://www.apartmentlist.com/wa/seattle#rent-report

    I am not suggesting rents are increasing or decreasing. But headline numbers don’t tell you the full story. Perhaps you should look up U-haul truck rental data to see if people are actually moving into Seattle.

  158. 1658
    David says:

    I’m still amazed at what constitutes Seattle. Before moving here 8 years ago I was accustomed to metro-areas being considered the “CITY”. Before that I lived in Atlanta which was really a 5 county area. No one really wanted to live in the actual Atlanta itself unless you liked being mugged, murdered, raped – or all three at the same time !!! The Atlanta Dirty Third as I called it.

    So I moved to Burien and… well I was right back in the stew all over again. Cept now the city is run by literal uneducated individuals from South of the border and bull lesbians.

    So I moved into my Winter home and still waiting to find a place in Seattle that isn’t burned to the ground.

    By ruxpert @ 1654:

    Goodbye, Seattle — residents flock to South King County

    South King County sees influx of former Seattleites
    Jeff Hickey’s three-decade stint in Seattle came to an end when the rent on his Queen Anne home rose by $300 a month. He’s among Seattleites flooding into some South King County cities, craving more room, better affordability and access to green space. Signs suggest the trend accelerated during the pandemic, and businesses are increasingly following suit. See which cities have become the hottest spots.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/housebound-seattle-residents-move-to-south-king-county-for-more-room-during-the-pandemic

  159. 1659
    Eastsider says:

    If you are a RE investor, you may be interested in these 3 tax increases in Biden’s proposal –

    Biden Proposal Would Close Longtime Real-Estate Tax Loophole
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-proposal-would-close-longtime-real-estate-tax-loophole-11619647044

    The deals are known as 1031 exchanges, named for the section in the U.S. tax code. The Biden proposal would abolish 1031 exchanges on real-estate profits of more than $500,000.

    In theory, capital-gains tax from these deals eventually gets paid. But on the advice of estate planners, many real-estate investors continue to buy and sell properties this way until they die, passing the capital gains on to their heirs tax-free at death. Mr. Biden seeks to close the death loophole, too, by taxing capital gains on inherited assets.

    Mr. Biden’s proposal would also raise the top rate paid on capital gains and dividends to 39.6% from 20%, and it would increase taxes that hedge funds pay on carried interest.

    (Emphasis added)

  160. 1660
    Brianna says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1659

    Yes, Biden’s policies, if passed, could further hurt our inventory supply issues, as investors might just hold on to their properties instead of selling to avoid paying taxes:

    https://youtu.be/W59Mcuh_LdI

  161. 1661
    disasteraverted says:

    RE: N @ 1651

    Congratulations to being under contract, so difficult to pull the trigger right now!

  162. 1662
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1659 – As an investor, I am interested in these.

    RE the 1031 proposal; as Brianna’s Meet-Kevin video points out, the lower limit may well cause existing SFR investors to just hold on, decreasing the level of incoming inventory. As Kevin also points out, the $500,000 limit may well attract institutional and Blackrock type buyers – people who have now had a few years practice in scaling to SFR assets – to increase their presence on the demand side.

    As to the step up issue, I don’t know how that is more negative for real estate than other asset allocations. Perhaps you do, and can explain it.

    Got to hate the capital gains increase, but also noting that it is a progressive rate issue that can be mitigated by controlling your income – especially to below $400,000, and again favoring smaller scale RE for eventual sale – at least for individual investors.

    Who knows what will happen with this, but lower house prices seem contra-indicated.

  163. 1663
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1662 – There have been a few articles written about the tax increase. Without step up basis, you realize capital gains on all assets at once. The assets may include primary home, family vacation home, family business, stocks, real estate, and IRAs(?). Between Biden’s 44% and Inslee’s 7%, you are potentially losing up to half of your accumulated lifetime wealth. No small business can survive such a tax hit. Ironically, these taxes hit the blue states far more than the red states, just as the SALT elimination. The billionaires (and their big corps) will lobby for exemptions and their accountants will navigate around these taxes. The “middleclass” millionaires (small businesses) are the ones paying the taxes.

  164. 1664
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1663 – Perhaps I was alone in this, but I read your post 1659 as a caution against RE investing. Your response shows, as with the other issues, that real estate has advantages over other small businesses due to its portfolio nature.

    In fairness, though, you and I will not be hit with those taxes. We will be dead; the estate will pay. I have always found it a tough moral argument to tell people who pay their taxes, that by deferral, I meant that the taxes I hadn’t paid, should never be paid- because my heirs need that money.

  165. 1665
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1664 – You are reading far too much into my posts 1659 & 1664. I suggest you read up more before making further comments on the subject. At death, first they tax capital gains at 44% (plus WA’s 7%). Then they tax your estate at up to 40% (plus WA’s 20%). So total death taxes can hit 80%. Btw, a lot of long term capital “gains” are just ordinary inflation. There is no ‘gain’ at all.

  166. 1666
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1665 – You specifically addressed “RE investors”. I wonder how many other people came away with the same impression that I did?

    But as to reading up, my post contains no errors or glaring ommissions. In contrast, your post references only the top marginal rate on the capital gains side, ignores the ability to limit your capital gain income to achieve no more than $400,000 total income, ignores that the estate tax does not kick in until $11,700,000, and that people in that position can afford to set up trusts and other vehicles to avoid that tax.

    At the end of the day, there’s nothing really very good written about these proposals because, in fact, they are not final.

    I’ve been taking depreciation, (or what we used to call an interest free loan from the taxman), since 1995. The inflation part is a bummer, but free use of that capital and the compounding effects of investing it over all that time do not leave me ready to poor mouth my lost inflation.

    Perhaps, Mr. Clinton, it comes back to what the meaning of the word “deferred” is. Shall we tell our taxpaying fellows that the idea of deferring taxes until we were in a lower bracket was just bull. That we never planned to pay them, and feel victimized by having to pay them at all. Are we outraged to pay income taxes like the plebes, (excepting not payroll taxes, thank goodness)?

  167. 1667
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1666 – A small business owner or a farmer can’t ‘limit’ his capital gains to $400k. The $11m estate tax exemption (separate from capital gains tax) may well be drastically reduced. Btw, WA’s current estate tax exemption is ‘mere’ $2m.

    The only part I agree with you is everything is up in the air. So I’m not going to waste any more time with you :)

  168. 1668
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1667:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1666 – A small business owner or a farmer can’t ‘limit’ his capital gains to $400k. The $11m estate tax exemption (separate from capital gains tax) may well be drastically reduced. Btw, WA’s current estate tax exemption is a ‘mere’ $2m.

    The only part I agree with you is everything is up in the air. So I’m not going to waste any more time with you :)

    Hmm, you make a good case for sticking to real estate.

  169. 1669
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1668
    p.s.
    Q – Help, I deferred my taxes until later, and now that it’s later they want me to pay them. So unfair!!!

    A – Wage earners need help for paying your agricultural supports and PPP “loans”.

  170. 1670
    Erik says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1668
    These 401k lemmings have small brains. I’ve been fighting the 401k establishment for years and have not made any progress. You can’t teach people that can’t learn. Eastsider is 60 and stuck in his ways. He yolo’d $40k into Costco stock 30 years ago and got lucky, that’s how he affords internet service. That’s not investing, that’s pure luck.

    Buy more rentals and rent to poor brainwashed 401k employees. Make them pay your mortgage and then evict them. 401k employees want to be treated as tools for business, so we should use them as tools. Don’t try to help, let them suffer in their own stupidity.

  171. 1671

    RE: Eastsider @ 1663

    My reading of the proposed change excludes small businesses as long as the family still runs the business. My grandmother started a pasta business on her kitchen table back in the 60’s making everything by hand and selling bags of gnocchi for a quarter. My cousin still operates the business, but on a much larger scale. They virtually have no cost basis that goes back to inception. The stepped up basis would pass the business from my cousin to his wife or children with no capital gain if no one continues the business after he passes and it is sold. That could be 20 years from now since he’s my age, so we’re not thinking about it, but family owned businesses seem to be excluded in the proposal.

    I can’t seem to find the origin date of “stepped up basis”. Back in my Trust and Estate days, I remember adjusting the stock and bond portfolios to date of death value cost basis. Real Estate was harder to strike a true date of death value. Mostly it was considered zero gain if sold within a year of death, and most always the real estate was sold within that year to divide and distribute the proceeds to the heirs. Stocks could be sold with date of death value as the cost basis or taken “in kind”. Then I would have to balance out the “in kind” assets, which was difficult with multiple heirs.

    I do remember someone else trying to get rid of the “stepped up basis” back in 1976 and they have tried twice since then, most recently under Obama. Never happened.

    I can’t find when it started. Does anyone know? I started working in 1972 and they tried to get rid of it in 1976, so it must be before that. I remember the only part they passed was the “generation skipping tax” part, but there wasn’t a huge fallout from that. It’s going to be a very hard battle to eliminate stepped up basis in whole or in part. In part…as proposed…is tremendously complex. Especially since they want to tax it whether it is sold or not. I don’t see that happening.

    Basically if you bought Amazon at it’s IPO and passed that stock to your children at death, the stepped up basis allows the entire gain of it during your lifetime to be tax free. The cost basis for your children would be the value as of your date of death. No gain tax at all on the gain accumulated from the time you bought it until your date of death. The only thing I remember about generation skipping tax was that people were bypassing their children and bequeathing directly to grandchildren…which kind of sucked big time. :)

    Passing the stock to your children before you die gives them YOUR cost basis. The “step up” only applies if you die.

    I run into this a lot in real estate with people wanting to give their real estate to their children or grandchildren when they get old or sell it before they die when they are literally dying. Better to hold it until death…unless the stepped up basis does get repealed.

  172. 1672
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 1671

    It is still early but the proposal does not exclude small businesses, it merely defers taxes for 10-15 years. If your business was started 30 -50 years ago, the cost basis would be negligible compared to the present enterprise value. Essentially the government will claim 44% 7% of your business, and another 40% 20% estate tax after that. The total tax hit can be as high as 80%. (And they will likely hike those tax rates too.)

    Biden’s proposal is estimated to collect $40B a year in tax revenue. It pales compared to the $1.9T spending bill. $40B / $19T is about 2%. Does anyone seriously think Biden will stop at ‘millionaires’ and not tax middle income families to pay for his $1.9T spending bill? Similarly, Inslee is spending like a drunken sailor and seeking more taxes when the state is already collecting record revenues.

  173. 1673
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1672 – Wow! Can I get a “merely” 10-15 year deferral on capital gains tax for my real estate? If the guy has gone 30 to 50 years without paying taxes on his gains, death is not too soon to man up, and join the rest of us. No need to take 15 years for the family to figure out they need some new capital, and a new structure. What a parasite!

    Also, why the wet pants about the $1.9T when you had nothing to say about funding Trump’s $6T addition to the debt? This is a real estate blog. Maybe Parler is the place for you.

  174. 1674
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1673 – Triggered much? Perhaps you should put in your will that 80% of your family home go to the state/federal treasury. We will be so appreciative and pray for your early demise lol.

  175. 1675
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1674 – I love how you are so quick to reply with a tangential point or a baseless riposte. It always reminds that if you had anything on the repeated larger issues, you’d have chimed in already :).

    People who have $11.7MM have the resources to see that their assets are structured not to get the 80% treatment – which is a hysterical stretch, btw.

    You haven’t got the wits to be a businessperson. Have you pinned your hopes on a fat inheritance?

  176. 1676
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1674:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1673 – Triggered much? Perhaps you should put in your will that 80% of your family home go to the state/federal treasury. We will be so appreciative and pray for your early demise lol.

    A legal obligation is just that. 80% seems like a lot, but if you expire with an 80% mortgage on your home; the bank gets theirs before your family gets any. How can that be so hard for you?

  177. 1677
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1620

    less-lending / credit-squeeze – Real Estate market?
    Forget hyperinflation; Why the U.S. is becoming Japan, not Zimbabwe
    https://youtu.be/8z6qx7MSnYM?t=470
    Apr 30

  178. 1678
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1676 – You bought your family home or farm 50 years ago with after-tax money. Now 50 years later, they want 80% of the same home/farm due to inflation that they caused. (If there were no inflation, there would be no ‘gains’ to tax.) The tax is fundamentally confiscatory. Family businesses and farms are particularly vulnerable. These are generational farmers and small business owners. Step-up addresses that issue. But greedy politicians and communists among us only want to divide us and to destroy wealth.

  179. 1679
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1678 – So your example is that 50 years ago you acquired your home and farm from after tax earnings which would have been the equivalent of at least $11.7million in today’s dollars. You haven’t added any value in that time. It’s just simple inflation. This is literally the most stupid argument I’ve seen in the 12 plus years I’ve been reading the Seattle bubble.

    But then you compound it with the corollary that you can be in agreement to defer legally owed payments over 50 years, and then renege on a legal obligation because “it’s all your fault”.

    Are you trying to make me die laughing?????

    Generational farmers and small business owners are ordinary citizens. They don’t have special rights. If you don’t pay your accruing taxes for 50 years, it adds up – even without interest. The error was in thinking that all that money you owe to someone else is somehow yours.

  180. 1680
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1679 – You can argue all you want. Multi-generational farmers will not exist if the govt takes away their land based on bogus/phantom ‘gains’. These farmers are not tax evaders. They pay taxes every year. When you die, I should want a piece of your great great grandparents jewelry because they are worth so much more in today’s dollars compared to their cost basis. You are a communist.

  181. 1681
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1680:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1679 – You can argue all you want. Multi-generational farmers will not exist if the govt takes away their land based on bogus/phantom ‘gains’. These farmers are not tax evaders. They pay taxes every year. When you die, I should want a piece of your great great grandparents jewelry because they are worth so much more in today’s dollars compared to their cost basis. You are a communist.

    Sorry, buggy whip manufacturers are gone, and I don’t have any grandparental jewelry to share with anyone. I also pay taxes. I also defer taxes. It’s not like those things are mutually exclusive. In fact the system is built to insure that we defer certain taxes. It’s been good for me, and I support it. But, because I understand this, my defense of it does not rely on a fantasy filled, utterly irrational lie proving I don’t understand finance or possibly even math. That does not make me a communist. Sadly, your compulsion to do so does make you an idiot.

  182. 1682
    David says:

    EastSider – Maybe he should let the government grow all his food. He’d be starving pretty quick.

    RE: Eastsider @ 1680

  183. 1683
    David says:

    Are you saying people should only own real estate as their investments? I’m about to run down to Naples, FL and take a look around.

    Also, I was literally chased across land of my yard last night by a gator that came flying out of the water. All 18 inches of him. I need to get closer to blue water that isn’t rough enough to beat me up. Then I’ve eliminated the gators and only have the crocs to worry about.

    RE: Erik @ 1670

  184. 1684
    Eastsider says:

    RE: David @ 1682 – Yup. Venezuela is exhibit A. The reason we still have generational farmers and family businesses is due to step up. Biden’s plan is to confiscate all these businesses. This is crazy communist wet dream.

  185. 1685
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1684:

    RE: David @ 1682 – Yup. Venezuela is exhibit A. The reason we still have generational farmers and family businesses is due to step up. Biden’s plan is to confiscate all these businesses. This is crazy communist wet dream.

    Corporate farmers are just as capable of hiring migrant workers as some dimbulb who can’t figure out how to structure his business or pay taxes. That’s capitalism, Nancy.

  186. 1686
    David says:

    Ever notice the first thing a corrupt government does is harass and murder farmers? Wanna guess why? They want to: 1) Control food 2) Displace the real people that other people rely upon to survive 3) All to control the people, weaken them, and get them to turn on each other.

    This allows the corrupt to swarm unimpeded like flies on sh!t while the middle class devolve into grasping, drowning people unable to pay attention and stop the chaos.

    Farmers have to be pretty smart and willing to work 24/7. Have you ever driven out in farm country during harvest season at 1AM and watched a tractor/combine.

    Farmland is not easy to accumulate either. Fertile farmland is scarce.

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1685

  187. 1687
    Whatsmyname says:

    By David @ 1686:

    Ever notice the first thing a corrupt government does is harass and murder farmers?

    A. No. Not in an industrialized country.
    B. American Farmers are not being harassed and murdered. Nor is this proposed.
    C. Consistent tax treatment does not equal harassment or murder.

    Wanna guess why? They want to: 1) Control food 2) Displace the real people that other people rely upon to survive 3) All to control the people, weaken them, and get them to turn on each other.

    1. Foreclosures /stress sales are older than this country, and do not give gvmt control of food.
    2. Provider displacements are inevitable in a competitive market economy. R U communist?
    2a. “the real people”???
    3. Consistency in taxation is not some weird control thing; it doesn’t weaken the people. Some people will turn on others at the mere hint of equality. If division is inevitable, this is not the one to accommodate or protect.

    You and Eastsider should consider forming your own manure farm. I think you could be successful, even without animals.

  188. 1688
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1683
    I’m saying that poor people that work for money should use the leverage of real estate to get started. It seems dumb to me to add a portion of your earned income to an index fund every paycheck. That is slow, painful, and risky to rely on one source of income.

    Good job evading that gator. Florida is a great place to buy. I’m not so sure about my area, New Orleans. It’s not as desirable. We don’t have the beaches. There are more bugs and it’s more humid in New Orleans.

    I think it would be very low stress to just own a bunch income producing of real estate as the exit strategy. You don’t have to watch the market or do anything. Not to mention it’s very low tax to collect rent.

  189. 1689
    David says:

    The West Coast of Florida still has cheapish real estate on the Coast. Also the southern coast of Texas, as I was researching the other, day has cheap coastal land on the beach.

    I was sitting in preliminary hearings in Atlanta watching the New Orleans residents make appearances on various crimes right after they fled from Hurricane Katrina. I joked that Katrina had washed away a huge criminal element. The Court would banish them from Georgia (essentially) and I am sure they went right back to New Orleans.

    Then I watched one (exactly one) episode of Duck Dynasty and decided I could not get into the Louisiana vibe.

    However, New Orleans sure has some great food.

    Texas: https://www.redfin.com/TX/Rockport/119-Lakeview-Rd-78382/home/110349393
    https://www.redfin.com/TX/PALACIOS/THUNDERBIRD-77465/home/132645719

    RE: Erik @ 1688

  190. 1690
    ruxpert says:

    Why Is Bill Gates Buying So Much Farmland?
    Bill Gates is now the US’ biggest farmland owner
    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bill+gates+farmland&t=hc&va=u&ia=web

  191. 1691
    David says:

    He owns a huge amount in Louisiana.

    RE: ruxpert @ 1690

  192. 1692
    ruxpert says:

    MeetKevin on 1031 change
    Biden Just DESTROYED Real Estate (Worse than I Thought)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W59Mcuh_LdI

  193. 1693
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1684

    “Confiscate” businesses?

    Hyberbole is a sign of weakness in arguments.

  194. 1694
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1689
    We are impoverished and criminal minded down here in the dirty south. New Orleans is not a ruly city. Last time I was in the French quarter on bourbon, someone was murdered around the corner. A gang of people pushed me down and ran over top of me. I got some bruises from landing on the concrete stairs, and I’m doing just fine.

    I think if you want to live in the south and you have some money, you aren’t gonna choose New Orleans. Today is super humid and it’s termite season. My wife closes the window curtains and turns off the lights at night because she is scared of them. Lots of insects here in the swamp,

    West Florida is nice and still affordable. Texas seems like a winner. My bet is still on Seattle and I want to own as much Seattle real estate as I can before I die. As more and more foreign tech people come to the US, places like Seattle and San Francisco are going to get more and more expensive. Seattle is where I want to put my money because I know there is massive upward pressure on prices there and in my opinion still under valued. I think average housing prices should be more like $1.5M in Seattle vs what they are now, which is about $850k.

  195. 1695
  196. 1696
    Erik says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1692
    Brianna beat you to posting that video. Biden is an idiot. He’s driving up entry level home prices, which is how poor people gain wealth, by owning a home. He’s also devaluing the dollar, which makes people that depend on a paycheck poorer. For the record, I’ve been telling everyone to buy since 2011. If someone is reading this and didn’t listen to me, you are an idiot and you get what you deserve. Real estate is gonna keep rallying as more and more money is printed. I hate to say I told ya so, but I told ya so.

    If this pandemic and this new president have shown us anything, it’s that landlords get richer and everyone else gets screwed. We are coming into the years when poor people, like me 10 years ago, are stuck poor. Landlords will be rich. Homeowners will maintain and pray they don’t get laid off so they can have somewhere to live. I’m looking forward to watching justme, Sfrz, S-crow, and Eastsider squirm. Let’s not forget the agent that drove around to open houses In Woodinville to judge how hot the real estate market was and fought me in 2018/19 that the market was about to tank. I fought them for years to buy more real estate and now it’s time for them to get served a fat slice of poverty.

  197. 1697
    ruxpert says:

    Yale’s Shiller Surprised by Surging U.S. Housing Market
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAKYgiUqQo4

    Apr.27 — Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, Yale University professor of economics, discusses the factors behind the soaring U.S. housing market on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.”

  198. 1698
    David says:

    RE: Erik @ 1694 – You’re getting the full Nawlins experience.

    Do you have an exit plan for Seattle real estate or is it a forever investment?

  199. 1699
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1693 – Hyperbole? The WSJ editorial board agrees with me.

    Capital Gains and Tax ‘Fairness’
    Olympia passes a 7% tax on gains, joining 13 states in the 50% club with Biden’s tax hike.
    By The Editorial Board
    May 2, 2021 5:06 pm ET

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/capital-gains-and-tax-fairness-11619989600
    Excerpts –

    ’Tis the season for raising taxes, and seemingly every Democratic state wants in on the action. The latest is Washington state, where legislators last weekend approved a 7% tax on capital gains above $250,000. Washington is one of eight U.S. states without an income tax, though voters have had to keep vetoing attempts by public unions to impose one in ballot initiatives. The politicians in Olympia won’t take no for an answer.

    Fairness? Washington state passed its new levy on capital gains even as Mr. Biden proposed a federal increase, which would raise the top rate to 43.4% from 23.8%, including the Affordable Care Act surtax. Combine the two tax increases, and Washington residents will now pay up to 50.4% of their capital gains to one government or the other.

    Is it fair to pay in taxes more than half of what you gain on a long-held asset, especially when that taxable gain doesn’t account for inflation? Is it fair when that gain in value may have already been taxed once as corporate income? Then how do you define confiscatory?

    The Biden and Olympia tax increases on capital gains won’t matter to Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos, who are already rich and can hire lawyers to shelter their future gains. The people who will be hit unfairly are the middle-class strivers or entrepreneurs who might be capital-gains “rich” for a year after a lifetime of work and investment. The politicians define “fair share” as taking more than half of everything they earn.

    Now you add in 40% federal and 20% WA estate tax, and remove step-up, a deceased farmer will lose his farm right there.

    Supposed your great grandparent was Picasso and you ‘inherited’ 200 pieces of his work. When you pass away, your estate will have to give 160 pieces to the government to pay the tax bill. Picasso would turn in his grave.

  200. 1700
    ruxpert says:

    Seems as if even invested in inflating houses, the return of such may not be enough?
    Yet, what else is there?
    And, what if it deflates before it can be put somewhere else?
    Oh the anxious life living in the wake of systemic corruption entropy.
    Will we ever displace the ‘Control-Fraud’ Monster?
    Have we any worthy heroes still amongst us?

    ;-)

  201. 1701
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1699 – Hyperbole is exaggeration, even to the point of ridiculous. You want to use an opinion piece from the editorial page as a defense? Where better to find an example?

    But the WSJ board is smart enough to use the adjective “confiscatory” communicating a squishy metaphorical slant, rather than “confiscate all these businesses” which is a false claim of seizure of the businesses themselves.

    Here’s a news flash; a deceased farmer has already lost the farm. He can’t take it with him. Also, you are conflating two taxation events as one. Loss of step up means the farmer’s estate merely pays taxes accrued, but not paid -like others might do at an earlier point. The estate tax is a fully separate tax on the transfer of the estate, passed by Congress on it’s own merits.

    Finally, your silly Picasso story perfectly demonstrates Joe’s claim that you can’t find much in the reality realm to support you. It also contains the pretense that everything happens at the top marginal rate, as if you hadn’t already been nailed for doing that before.

    I would like to see this legislation scaled back at least. I don’t know if dying on the hill of eyerolling absurdities will help that.

  202. 1702
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1701 – Methinks you should stop babbling ad infinitum and read up why step up is in the tax code in the first place. Yes, step up is still there today.

  203. 1703
    Blurtman says:

    I have not been following the capital gains taxation issue that closely, and I hope this is a wrong conclusion, but here is not an unusual situation at all: An entrepreneur starts a company, working for no to little salary while buidling the company’s value over a few years. His hard work pays off, and the company is acquired by a large investment firm that is able to fund the further development and growth of the company. In the acquisiton, the investment firm acquires the founder’s shares in the startup at a price that results in a deserved gain for the risk taker. The founder’s equity is now subject to capital gains tax, and for absolutely no effort, the state of Washington puts its hands in the entrepreneur’s pockets and takes 7% of the realized value of the company. Entrepreneurs correclty identify the state as being startup unfriendly, and set up new businesses elsewhere.

  204. 1704
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1703 – Below are similar reader comments from the WSJ opinion piece –

    Rather than redistribution of wealth, how about redistribution of work?

    The so-called fat cat, not fair share income I’ve EARNED THE HARD WAY, was the product of relentlessly working my tail off to earn respected degrees and then I worked twice as hard in the working world.

    I didn’t see anybody but me taking my exams and doing my homework. I didn’t see anybody but me putting my neck on the line in major sink or swim work efforts. I didn’t see anybody but me in my office sacrificing nights, weekends, holidays, and family time.

    So what’s my fair share? Nobody was there with me earning it for me.

    I have owned and operated a small business for 30 years , reinvesting profits and growing the business. I purchased my first new car at the age of 55 , been called cheap and miserly because I preferred to grow my business instead of spending the profits. Anyone who thinks I should pay out half of what took a lifetime to accumulate to be used for some socialist experiment most likely spent their life relying on the government and never built anything .
    What is the motivation going forward for the next generation

  205. 1705
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1698
    I’m a Seattle real estate bull. I can’t let go of Seattle real estate. In the beginning of my journey out of poverty, I did sell a condo in Kirkland and a condo over the water at alki point. It was a little painful to let them go. I wish I still had them to be honest, but they got me out of poverty and into the money. I was able to use my profits to buy more Seattle real estate and stocks.

    Now I have more cash than I’d ever need, so I want more Seattle real estate. I have no plans of selling what I’ve got. My properties are managed by an awesome property manager and cause me no stress. They will probably keep going up in value, so there’s no reason to sell. I’d like to buy 3 more houses in south Seattle over the next couple years, but we’ll see. Maybe I’ll just buy more condos? Condos are easy. Condos are going to go up in price someday and it would be good to get in now while they are still cheap.

    My end game is to own a bunch of Seattle real estate free and clear, so selling what I own is not an option for me. I want to buy more, not sell.

  206. 1706
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1702 – Of course the step up is there today. So are the 1031, and the lower LTCG rate. The challenge to all these things is why they are all in the conversation.

  207. 1707
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 1698
    I remember you saying that you bought a house in Tukwila and sold it for a nice profit. Great move, making money is always the right move.

    May I ask why you sold it? I would have held onto anything in Tukwila as it seems like a long play. You are retired with plenty of cash, so no reason to sell. I was just curious what your reasoning was to sell?

  208. 1708
    ruxpert says:

    Yellen says rates may need to rise ‘somewhat’

    “‘It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat,’ Yellen said during an economic seminar presented by The Atlantic. ‘Even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy, it could cause some very modest increases in interest rates.’”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

  209. 1709
    SnP says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1703

    There are 9 states that don’t have capital gains taxes, if you include WA.

    If you are a successful entrepreneur and selling your business – you have an accountant working for you to help you minimize your tax burden.

  210. 1710
    Whatsmyname says:

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/05/goldman-on-housing-double-digit-price.html

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/05/housing-inventory-may-3rd-update-at.html

    Going back to the old, real estate topic; Goldman thinks we’ll see double digit house price increases in 2021 and in 2022. What do people here think about that?

  211. 1711
    Eastsider says:

    Oil prices just hit 1 year high. Okay, make that 2-yr high… (No news story yet so no link.)

  212. 1712
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1711 – Back in February, BofA projected a temporary rise in Brent Crude to $70/barrel during the 2nd quarter; but then to only average $60 for the year. Who knows?

  213. 1713
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1712 – I say we may hit triple digit this year. We have a supply issue looming and will be a net oil importer within a year. Who would have thought? $5 gas coming?

  214. 1714
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1713 – I can’t say it won’t. If so, it will present an interesting cross-dynamic while people are weighting how much to retain from the recent the work from home and retail as delivery trends.

  215. 1715
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1710

    In favor of rising prices is thin inventory. Why is inventory low?

    1. Folks are doing the Biden, hunkering down in the bunker, triple masking, and irradiating all home deliveries.
    2. The home is a financial asset, being squirreled away in the closet like the Donald Trump commemorative gold goins, either to be tapped only when necessary, or passed down to heirs.
    3. Homelessness still isn’t trendy, and if you sell, you have to buy to live somewhere, or rent from Comglomerated Erik Industries, Inc.

    A few things that ultimately may deflate housing prices, or at least flatten the curve (Doh!):

    1. SARS-CoV-2 goes the way of the pet rock, and Supreme Commander Fauci gives the all clear.
    2. The one trillion quadrillion US debt finally causes interest rates to rise.
    3. High home prices are declared to be racist, and Seattlelites give away their homes to POC.
    4. Don’t tax me, don’t tax thee, hell, don’t raise taxes on anyone, cause Daddy needs the money for the down payment, baby.

    Or, Better not tell you now.

  216. 1716
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1699

    Lots of B.S. in that article.

    Why do they always use the small farmer as an example? There are very few family farms anymore, and those that do exist are struggling and don’t have any capital gains to begin with. The U.S. agriculture industry is owned and operated by large corporate farms and processing facilities.

    Second, if the top 1% doesn’t deserve a tax increase, then they should offer a better solution. Do they have somebody in mind who is better able to accept a tax increase? If so, have the spine to call them out. If their answer is to raise nobody’s taxes and reduce spending, then why are they complaining how the tax burden is allocated in the first place, if spending and not tax allocation is the issue. Again, they try to use subterfuge to get what they want, which is to escape tax.

    Thirdly, the complaint about income being taxed twice is ridiculous and shows a lot of confusion. All income is taxed once, and it always has been. When one person earns a wage, it is income. When that person pays a gardener or Amazon, it becomes their income, and it gets taxed again, and so on. This is not double taxation. When somebody dies and gifts wealth to children, the children must pay tax on their windfall income, just like I pay tax on my income. When corporations pay tax on their income, and they then pay employers or stockholders, the employees and stockholders should pay tax on their wage and dividend income, just like I pay tax on my income. Everybody gets taxed once.

    Fourthly, Biden’s tax proposals bring the tax burdens back to where they were during the most prosperous times for America. High tax rates stimulate the economy through dispersion of wealth and, therefore, increased business competition. Low tax rates on the wealthy, especially capital gains taxes that are lower than wage taxes, promote concentration of income and business concentration we see flourishing today. The wealthy people trying to lower their tax rates are the ones that don’t want to compete and work for their money. They want it handed to them.

    I could go on and on, but to be honest its quite tedious pointing out obvious logical flaws in arguments of whiners like the WSJ and the top .1%. They repeat the same tired arguments again and again.

  217. 1717
    Eastsider says:

    It’s about time to rein in government overreach, ‘executive’ and ’emergency’ orders.

    Federal judge vacates CDC’s eviction moratorium
    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/551910-federal-judge-vacates-cdcs-eviction-moratorium

  218. 1718
    S-Crow says:

    Hot potato just got hotter: Federal Judge lifts the Eviction ban.

    Interestingly two prospective tenants indicated to me their frustration that the “ban” has created more inventory problems and that removing the evictions would help loosen up what is available.

  219. 1719
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1716“When corporations pay tax on their income, and they then pay employers or stockholders”

    To a corporation, wage is an expense. It is not taxed.

    There was no factual error in the WSJ editorial. On the other hand, your rant…

  220. 1720
  221. 1721
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1720 – You can’t have it both ways. ““When corporations pay tax on their income, and they then pay employers or stockholders”

    So you’re claiming dividends to stockholders are “pre-tax” income? This is the #1 example of double taxation when corporate income is taxed at corporate level, then again as dividends at shareholder level.

  222. 1722
    Joe says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1703

    Blurtman,

    You have explain why that tax result to the business owner is unfair relative to the income earned by others in the economy. Why should an entrepreneur escape tax on his capital gain income, while the wage earner does not? The fact that some income is earned in the nature of capital gains doesn’t make it any different. Upon sale of the underlying asset, the capital gain represents in money in your pocket that can be spent, just like wages.

    Saying business owners should escape tax is just pointless whining. Nobody likes paying tax, but they have to if they want a government.

  223. 1723
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1721

    The corporation and the shareholder are two different taxable entities. Tax paid by one is not the same as tax paid by the other. These are basic matters. There is no double tax, although those with limited knowledge of the matter often describe it this way.

  224. 1724
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Joe @ 1722 – There certainly are arguments to be made from different POV’s. And the government can tax whatever and whoever they decide to tax. But one of the roles of tax policy is to encourage or discourage behavior. For example, want to dissuade folks from smoking? Slap sizeable taxes on cigarettes. Want to discourage folks from burning fossil fuels? Gas taxes. And so if you want to discourage entrepreneurs from taking sizeable risks, starting businesses that should be viewed as a benefit to the country, slap taxes on them.

    Wage earners who work for companies take much less risk, afterall, and would not have a job if an entrepreneur did not take the initial risk somewhere down the line. And the wage earner’s employer would not be as able to raise money if investors were discouraged from investing in the company, due to added taxes.

    And so if you want to discourage economic growth, raise taxes.

    And as to the argument of double taxation, if the entrepreneur is foregoing income while starting his company, he is already being penalized in the form of lost earnings. If he invests after tax earnings directly in his startup, or indirectly, if he is living off after tax income earned in the past, while trying to get the business going, and factoring in the low probablity of success, he is double taxed via capital gains taxes.

    Again, if you want to discourage new company formation, raise taxes on entrepreneurs.

  225. 1725
    Justsomedude12 says:

    By Joe @ 1723:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1721

    The corporation and the shareholder are two different taxable entities. Tax paid by one is not the same as tax paid by the other. These are basic matters. There is no double tax, although those with limited knowledge of the matter often describe it this way.

    The shareholders are the owners of the corporation. The corporation’s profits are taxed at the corporate level, and then distributed to the owners as dividends and taxed again. This is the double tax.

  226. 1726
    ruxpert says:

    ‘5 of Seattle’s Hottest Neighborhoods
    Where homes are flying off the market. ‘
    https://www.seattlemet.com/home-and-real-estate/2021/05/hottest-neighborhoods-in-seattle-real-estate

  227. 1727
    Joe says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1725

    No, no. Let’s not caught up trying to define a double tax. That’s like trying to define BLM or any other broad slogan.

    Let’s look at the law and the reasons for it. The shareholders own a piece of the corporation, but the corporation is a separate taxable entity in the tax law. Shareholders know about the corporate level tax when they buy shares of the corporation. If they don’t like the corporate tax, they can choose to avoid it by setting up a business as an S corp or partnership. Most people choose to invest in C corporations, however, because it shields them from liability, allows better access to funding, credit ratings, etc. These benefits are things shareholders would never be entitled to operating on their own, and this serves as justification to treat C corporations a separate taxable entities, apart from the shareholder.

    It’s been this way forever. It’s fair and generally accepted by ALL countries. To argue against this is highly impracticle, to say the least.

    Further, corporate shareholders have no right to complain about a so-called “double tax” when they willfully CHOOSE to invest in a legal entity that pays a corporate-level tax. That’s the equivalent of a homeowner complaining about a leaky plumbing issue that was fully disclosed in the purchase agreement.

  228. 1728
    Joe says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 1724

    I understand your argument, but disagree. I believe all income should be treated equal. Why favor one type of income generation over another? That’s the government picking winners and losers, which has no place in a market-based economy. If entrepreneurs fail, they have the safety net to fall back on, same as anybody else.

    A free market economy should decide how much income the entrepreneurs and wage earners make, not the government.

    I agree entrepreneurs take on greater risk, but they also take on greater reward potential. There’s nothing there that requires a subsidy.

  229. 1729
    Justsomedude12 says:

    RE: Joe @ 1727 – I’m glad that since your post 1723, you’ve now come around and realized that there is indeed a double tax.

  230. 1730
    ruxpert says:

    Judge voids U.S. moratorium on evicting renters during pandemic
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/federal-court-vacates-us-eviction-moratorium-2021-05-05/

  231. 1731
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Justsomedude12 @ 1729:

    RE: Joe @ 1727 – I’m glad that since your post 1723, you’ve now come around and realized that there is indeed a double tax.

    A corporation is a separate legal individual, (courtesy of the gvmt), and your bundle of rights (and liabilities)as a shareholder differs from what you would have as to your directly held business, or raw assets.

    Putting all that aside, the corporation decides how much, if anything, will be distributed as taxable dividend. If the corporation decided to increase your dividend based taxes by $1, but will bury $2 worth of taxes in never to be realized losses or unrecognized capital gains, can you really say you were double taxed?

  232. 1732
    Joe says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1729

    If that’s your conclusion, you don’t have the capacity to follow the concepts or retain what is said. Sorry.

    As I’ve said many times. There is no double tax. Each taxable entity pays tax once.

    If you have the time, and it appears you do, I encourage you to reread it as many times as it takes for you to understand.

    I can’t lay it out any simpler for you.

  233. 1733
    Justsomedude12 says:

    Socialists Unite
    Flinging Red Herrings Around
    Yet Still Incorrect

    -A double tax Haiku

  234. 1734
    Erik says:

    RE: Justsomedude12 @ 1729
    I believe Joe was the agent that kept screaming that the market was crash big in 2019. He’s the agent I talk about that drove from open house to open house in Woodinville and counted the number of potential buyers. He used those numbers to report whether the Seattle housing market was either hot or not. Him, Justme, and Sfrz fought me all of 2019 screaming the market is crashing.

    Joe has a poor track record. I wouldn’t put too much weight on what he says.

  235. 1735
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 1732
    Hey Joe,

    Weren’t you the agent that banned together with Justme and Sfrz in 2019 screaming the market is crashing? Your proof was low open house attendance rates in Woodinville.

    Justme and Sfrz got embarrassed and left because they were so wrong. You stuck around. No shame I guess?

  236. 1736
    ruxpert says:

    The dispiriting housing boom
    – NAR Chief Economist Laurence Yun
    ‘This is not a bubble. It is simply a lack of supply’ ?
    https://www.axios.com/housing-boom-bubble-mortgage-50b573de-94f0-4d7c-a34d-b2b40d9dc664.html

  237. 1737
    ruxpert says:

    RE: ruxpert @ 1730

    Judge Strikes Down National Moratorium On Evictions | MTP Daily | MSNBC
    May 5, 2021
    https://youtu.be/Px68xJfkjn0

  238. 1738
  239. 1739
    Whatsmyname says:

    NWMLS April stats are out. It’s what you thought.

    Month end SFR listings are under 1,000, (YOY down 54%). Pending sales are up 28%. Closed sales up 22.6%. Median price of $824,997 is up 14.5%, and months of inventory is 0.43.

    Condo market numbers are more buyer friendly.

    https://www.nwmls.com/library/corporatecontent/statistics/Breakouts_King.pdf

  240. 1740
    Eastsider says:

    By Joe @ 1732:

    As I’ve said many times. There is no double tax. Each taxable entity pays tax once.

    We don’t need to argue about the semantic. Many corporations choose share buyback over dividends to distribute earnings to shareholders to avoid double-taxation.

    You have explain why that tax result to the business owner is unfair relative to the income earned by others in the economy. Why should an entrepreneur escape tax on his capital gain income, while the wage earner does not? The fact that some income is earned in the nature of capital gains doesn’t make it any different. Upon sale of the underlying asset, the capital gain represents in money in your pocket that can be spent, just like wages.

    The ‘unfair’ part about capital gains tax is that it is not indexed to inflation. If we have a decade of 30% hyperinflation, a $.5m stock portfolio can easily be $5.5m in a decade. Is it fair to tax that $5m ‘gain’?

    A small business owner sells his business after 5 decades for $5m. Over his working life, he lived modestly and reinvested all his savings to build that business. Why should he be subject to capital gains tax just because the gain is over $1m? Should that $5m be divided over 50 years? $5m/50 = $100k/yr. And that’s before adjusting for inflation over that period.

  241. 1741
    Eastsider says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1739:

    Month end SFR listings are under 1,000, (YOY down 54%). Pending sales are up 28%. Closed sales up 22.6%. Median price of $824,997 is up 14.5%, and months of inventory is 0.43.

    If you think about it, how can listings be down when closed sales are up? Logically, inventory down => sales down. But this has not been the case for months. Just sayin’

  242. 1742
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 1741:

    By Whatsmyname @ 1739:

    Month end SFR listings are under 1,000, (YOY down 54%). Pending sales are up 28%. Closed sales up 22.6%. Median price of $824,997 is up 14.5%, and months of inventory is 0.43.

    If you think about it, how can listings be down when closed sales are up? Logically, inventory down => sales down. But this has not been the case for months. Just sayin’

    That couldn’t be more easy. The NWMLS chart (which I had attached) portrays the month end number of active listings in one of the columns as they have done for many years. This is the number of houses that you would have to choose from on April 30, and coincides with the number Tim used in his charts.

    You can also see in that chart how many listings are coming in, and how same for last year. If more new listings come in than are sold, that number goes up; and vice versa. But the value of that number is to compare it with the 20 years Tim has charted it. There you can see that it is less than half of what it was last year, and that even last year was very, very low. What you see is sustained buying pressure preventing inventory from rebuilding to normal.

    EDIT – However, joke is on me. I saw an updated release from NWMLS, but the statistics haven’t been updated, so pulled the March numbers without looking at the date. We’ll see what the April reality is. In the meantime, my comments were correct for March

  243. 1743
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1740

    Capital gains should not be indexed to inflation, simply because our wages are also not indexed to inflation. The wages of the average worker go up 2% per year, which is the inflation rate. Thus, the annual increase in the average worker’s salary is entirely due inflation, yet all of that wage increase is subject to tax without any inflation adjustment. Wage earners actually suffer worse because the inflationary component of the wage is taxed each year, and not deferred, like a capital gain.

  244. 1744
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1743 – You clearly don’t understand tax code, This year’s tax bracket has been adjusted for inflation. If inflation is 2%, your wage increases 2%, tax bracket will also gains 2%. You will be taxed at the same rate. If tax bracket stays unchanged, after a decade or two, most people would be in the highest tax bracket!

    If we withhold your wages in the last 10 years and pay you all at once this year, you will be taxed at the highest rate because you earn a million dollar! No you are not ‘wealthy’. Same in the case of long term capital gains.

  245. 1745
    Erik says:

    RE: Joe @ 1738
    So you think you made the right choice in 2019 by telling potential buyers the market was going to crash hard and not to buy?

    You are in denial. You screwed people that only had 5% down and didn’t buy based on your comments.

  246. 1746
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 1742 – The inventory has been increasing yoy, though not at the same rate as sales. The headline is misleading. The number to watch is closed sales. Ignore the noise. If there is really no inventory, sales will be down. But sales has been increasing…

  247. 1747
    Joe says:

    RE: Erik @ 1745

    Take a math course, then offer commentary.

  248. 1748
    Joe says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 1744

    Not true. The tax brackets don’t apply for people making over $1M, which is when Biden’s capital gain hikes would kick in. Marginal income is always subject to the highest rate of tax, which receives no benefit from bracketing.

    Bottom line: If you support indexing cap gains > $1M, you should also support indexing highest marginal tax rates on wage income, which face an even higher inflation tax burden, otherwise you are providing government subsidies to one class of income, but not the other. If you believe in free markets, you should be arguing against a capital gains preference because it distorts the economy.

  249. 1749
    Joe says:

    Eastsider, Justsomedude12, and Eric,

    I’ll be checking back in a month or so. Time spent here is a definite luxury.

    I think you learned a few lessons today, whether you admit it or not.

    Stay away from the hyperbole, use your calculators, and read up!!! You’ll get there.

    Joe

  250. 1750
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Joe @ 1748
    The highest tax bracket (37%) for married couples filing jointly applies to income above $518,400 in 2020 and $523,600 in 2021. People making over $1M fall in that bracket in both years. But couples making $520k will have different marginal tax rates. Yes the tax bracket is indexed to inflation.

    I’m not arguing about capital gains preference here. That is a policy matter. (lower capital gains => higher growth.) I’m arguing about a fair tax system that will only tax ‘real’ gains, not phantom ‘inflation’ gains.

    If a young person who is not a risk taker puts his savings in a bond indexed to inflation, he should not be taxed when he withdraws the money in some future date for retirement or emergency. A fair system would only tax ‘real’ gains. The current preference rate partly addresses that unfairness.

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