{"id":103005,"date":"2015-08-05T16:12:49","date_gmt":"2015-08-05T23:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103005"},"modified":"2015-08-07T10:04:58","modified_gmt":"2015-08-07T17:04:58","slug":"nwmls-closed-sales-may-show-first-signs-of-cooling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/08\/05\/nwmls-closed-sales-may-show-first-signs-of-cooling\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Closed Sales May Show First Signs of Cooling"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>July market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Pent up demand boosting Western Washington home sales and prices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pent-up demand continues to fuel home sales around Western Washington with millennials, military families and relocating workers vying for limited inventory. Brokers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service say they&#8217;re not seeing a typical summer slowdown.<\/p>\n<p>Commenting on a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Services summarizing July activity, J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc. said, &#8220;The Puget Sound housing market is sizzling hot, with the best July on record.&#8221; He expects inventory shortages will continue into the summer of 2016.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Everybody get on the home-buying train! It&#8217;s onward and upward to infinity! <em>Nothing could possibly go wrong!<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">July 2015<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>3,551<\/td>\n<td>+3.9%<\/td>\n<td>-27.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,900<\/td>\n<td>-0.1%<\/td>\n<td>+8.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.18<\/td>\n<td>-0.3%<\/td>\n<td>-13.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>3,197<\/td>\n<td>-3.7%<\/td>\n<td>+10.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.18<\/td>\n<td>-3.7%<\/td>\n<td>-34.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$485,000<\/td>\n<td>-3.0%<\/td>\n<td>+3.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Summary: Still no improvements for home buyers. But hey, if you&#8217;re selling your home or you&#8217;re profiting from people selling their homes for more and more money, this market is <em>awesome<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103005]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-07.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 0.1 percent from June to July. Last year they rose 7.7 percent over the same period. While it might be true that we are &#8220;not seeing a typical summer slowdown,&#8221; since 1993 through 2003 saw an average 10 percent decline in closed sales between June and July, we are slowing down, which is the opposite of what we saw between those months in 2014 (+7.7%) and 2013 (+9.3%).<\/p>\n<p>This is the first indicator that we may actually be seeing the market start to cool off slightly.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103005]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-07.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory inched up yet again June to July, but once again turned in the lowest ever recorded level for the time of year. Year-over-year inventory is still down double digits, with a slightly bigger decrease than last month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103005]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-07.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Everything in this chart is still moving in sellers&#8217; favor.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103005]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-07.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is the largest drop in the year-over-year chart from one month to the next since November 2013.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103005]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-07.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The median home price fell back in July from the new all-time high set in June (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p>July 2015: $485,000<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(pre-2015 high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/king-county-median-home-price-slips-in-july\/\" title=\"King County median home price slips in July\">King County median home price slips in July<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at their press release. Pent up demand boosting Western Washington home sales and prices Pent-up demand continues to fuel home sales around Western Washington with millennials, military families and relocating workers vying for limited inventory&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Closed Sales May Show First Signs of Cooling","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,1114],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-stats"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Closed Sales May Show First Signs of Cooling \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/08\/05\/nwmls-closed-sales-may-show-first-signs-of-cooling\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Closed Sales May Show First Signs of Cooling \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"July market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at their press release. 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