{"id":10309,"date":"2010-03-30T07:09:46","date_gmt":"2010-03-30T14:09:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=10309"},"modified":"2010-05-25T06:58:13","modified_gmt":"2010-05-25T13:58:13","slug":"case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-fall-from-2009-plateau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/30\/case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-fall-from-2009-plateau\/","title":{"rendered":"Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Fall From 2009 Plateau"},"content":{"rendered":"

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/a>. According to January data,<\/p>\n

Down<\/em> 1.7% December to January.
\nDown<\/em> 0.6% December to January (seasonally adjusted).
\nDown<\/em> 6.0% YOY.<\/strong>
\nDown<\/em> 24.5% from the July 2007 peak<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Last year prices fell 3.6% from December to January (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices were down 15.0%.<\/p>\n

As has been the case each of the last five months (at least<\/a>), Bloomberg is running a grossly misleading headline and leader. Their article headline is Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Increased 0.3% in January<\/a>, and the first paragraph is “Home prices in 20 U.S. cities unexpectedly rose in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands.” For reference, here is what Bloomberg’s “home prices in 20 U.S. cities increasing” looks like:<\/p>\n

\"Case-Shiller<\/a><\/p>\n

I still think it’s a huge stretch to state “home prices rise” when you’re talking about the black-box seasonally-adjusted index, plus the blanket statement that prices rose “in 20 U.S. cities” is just flat-out false. In reality, home prices fell<\/em> in eighteen out of twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities from December to January.<\/p>\n

Here’s our offset graph, with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. San Diego and LA continue to show slight YOY gains. Portland came in at -4.2%, Los Angeles at +3.9%, and San Diego at +5.9%, all better than Seattle again.<\/p>\n

\"Case-Shiller<\/a><\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong> This graph is not intended to be predictive<\/strong>. It is for entertainment purposes only.<\/p>\n

Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software<\/a> (check and un-check the boxes on the right):<\/p>\n

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