{"id":103149,"date":"2015-09-04T10:43:09","date_gmt":"2015-09-04T17:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103149"},"modified":"2015-09-08T14:54:55","modified_gmt":"2015-09-08T21:54:55","slug":"nwmls-sales-slow-in-august-as-prices-continue-surging","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/09\/04\/nwmls-sales-slow-in-august-as-prices-continue-surging\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Sales Slow in August as Prices Continue Surging"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Opinions vary on possibility of a housing slowdown, but numbers show solid activity<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Some brokers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service detected a slowdown in housing activity during August, &#8220;but nowhere near what is typical,&#8221; according to one industry veteran. Among MLS leaders who commented on the service&#8217;s latest report, expectations for the remainder of 2015 ranged from one who predicted &#8220;we&#8217;re on the cusp of a slowdown,&#8221; to others describing activity as &#8220;torrid&#8221; and saying &#8220;sales will continue at a fast pace.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>No home salesperson <em>ever<\/em> went wrong predicting that a hot market will continue. Er, wait.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">August 2015<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>3,490<\/td>\n<td>-1.7%<\/td>\n<td>-29.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,575<\/td>\n<td>-11.2%<\/td>\n<td>+8.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.25<\/td>\n<td>+6.6%<\/td>\n<td>-6.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,971<\/td>\n<td>-7.1%<\/td>\n<td>+6.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.36<\/td>\n<td>+10.7%<\/td>\n<td>-34.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$499,950<\/td>\n<td>+3.1%<\/td>\n<td>+14.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Summary: No sign of any dramatic changes. The market is still strongly in sellers&#8217; favor, and looks like it will stay that way for quite a while.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103149]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 11 percent from July to August. Last year they also fell about 11 percent over the same period. The prior ten years (2004-2013) saw an average 2 percent decline in closed sales between July and August, so the last two years the market has been slowing in August a lot more quickly than has been typical. Meanwhile year-over-year closed sales dropped to the lowest level since January.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103149]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory dropped slightly from July to August, while the year-over-year number fell to its lowest point since April 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103149]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-08.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Everything in this chart is still in sellers&#8217; favor, but the demand side (closed sales) has at least been inching back toward buyer&#8217;s territory for the last few months.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103149]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Huge swing from +3.6 percent in July to +14.4 percent in August.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103149]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The median home price hit a new all-time high in August (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p>August 2015: $499,950<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(pre-2015 high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/king-county-home-prices-jump-14-percent\/\" title=\"Condo prices climbing even faster than houses\">Condo prices climbing even faster than houses<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back on Monday for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Opinions vary on possibility of a housing slowdown, but numbers show solid activity<\/strong><br \/>\n[&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Sales Slow in August as Prices Continue Surging","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Sales Slow in August as Prices Continue Surging \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/09\/04\/nwmls-sales-slow-in-august-as-prices-continue-surging\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Sales Slow in August as Prices Continue Surging \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble.  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August market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here's a quick look at their press release.  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