{"id":103342,"date":"2015-11-06T14:03:06","date_gmt":"2015-11-06T22:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103342"},"modified":"2015-11-12T17:44:01","modified_gmt":"2015-11-13T01:44:01","slug":"nwmls-sales-slip-slightly-from-september-to-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/11\/06\/nwmls-sales-slip-slightly-from-september-to-october\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Sales Slip Slightly from September to October"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Real estate brokers expect only a modest holiday slowdown<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>But prices in most areas are still rising<\/em><\/p>\n<p>With holidays approaching, real estate brokers usually expect a slowdown as buyers and sellers shift their attention elsewhere. &#8220;This year is different,&#8221; say some industry leaders. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Today we have one of the best markets we&#8217;ve ever seen for sellers,&#8221; observed Ken Anderson, managing broker and owner at Coldwell Banker Evergreen in Olympia. &#8220;Buyers are still surging to the market and inventory is low. It&#8217;s a very good time to sell. Owners who are eager to make the next move don&#8217;t have to wait six months or until spring to act,&#8221; added Anderson, a former board member at Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Buyers are still surging to the market&#8221; is definitely not how I would describe a month-over-month decline in pending and closed sales, and year-over-year sales growth of just 1-2 percent. But then again I am not a used home salesman.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">October 2015<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>3,064<\/td>\n<td>-10.0%<\/td>\n<td>-32.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,301<\/td>\n<td>-2.7%<\/td>\n<td>+2.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.06<\/td>\n<td>-2.8%<\/td>\n<td>-8.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,675<\/td>\n<td>-2.8%<\/td>\n<td>+1.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.33<\/td>\n<td>-7.5%<\/td>\n<td>-33.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$480,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.1%<\/td>\n<td>+7.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>I continue to be surprised that prices are not up 10 to 20 percent year-over-year, with the strong sales and weak inventory numbers we&#8217;ve seen all year. Between 2000 and 2014, five years saw sales <em>increase<\/em> between September and October, but on average across the 15 years, sales were flat over the period. This year&#8217;s 3 percent decline is definitely not a strong signal, but it&#8217;s not a sign that a market collapse is imminent, either.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103342]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-10.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 3 percent from September to October. Last year they rose 6 percent over the same period. Meanwhile year-over-year closed sales dropped significantly slightly to the lowest level since January.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103342]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-10.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell again from September to October, while the year-over-year number continued to drop as well. At this rate January will most likely set a new record for low on-market inventory.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103342]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-10.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Everything in this chart is still in sellers&#8217; favor, but the demand line moved toward balanced market territory in October.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103342]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-10.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not much change in this chart, which moved from +6.6 percent in September to +7.3 percent in October.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103342]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-10.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The median home price continues to bouncing around in the same $480,000 to $500,000 range it has been in since April.<\/p>\n<p>October 2015: $480,000<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(pre-2015 high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/king-county-median-home-price-up-73-from-year-ago\/\" title=\"Short supply pushes up region\u2019s home prices\">Short supply pushes up region\u2019s home prices<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back Monday for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. I continue to be surprised that prices are not up 10 to 20 percent year-over-year, with the strong sales and weak inventory numbers we&#8217;ve seen all year&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103344,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Sales Slip Slightly from September to October","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Sales Slip Slightly from September to October \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"October market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. I continue to be surprised that prices are not up 10 to 20 percent year-over-year...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/11\/06\/nwmls-sales-slip-slightly-from-september-to-october\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Sales Slip Slightly from September to October \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"October market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. 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