{"id":103502,"date":"2015-12-07T10:40:03","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T18:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103502"},"modified":"2016-01-07T09:06:45","modified_gmt":"2016-01-07T17:06:45","slug":"nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Home buyers, sellers who stay active during holidays are being rewarded during &#8220;intense&#8221; market<\/strong><br \/>\nInventory remains &#8220;critically low,&#8221; but there are fewer house-hunters in the hunt during this holiday season so motivated sellers and buyers are seeing success, according to brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its just-released statistics for November show year-over-year gains in pending sales, closed sales, and prices, but a steep decline in inventory.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The housing market continues to be red-hot on a seasonal basis, but this winter will be even more intense given the dangerously low inventory,&#8221; remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\n<em>[Broker Ken]<\/em> Anderson said buyers have remained active all year. &#8220;Every month this year our market has improved for sellers. It is really a uniquely good time,&#8221; he observed.<\/p>\n<p>Scott agreed, noting &#8220;there is more pressure on new listings than we had last winter.&#8221; A higher percentage of homes is selling within the first 30 days, according to his analysis. &#8220;This is setting the stage for a frenzy market in the spring of 2016. Even if interest rates go up slightly, buyer demand and low inventory will push prices up,&#8221; he believes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>When does J. Lennox Scott <em>not<\/em> believe that home prices will be pushed up? (Answer: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/12\/12\/j-lennox-scott-dick-beeson-predictions-vs-reality\/\" title=\"J. Lennox Scott &#038; Dick Beeson Predictions vs. Reality\">pretty much never<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">November 2015<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,302<\/td>\n<td>-24.9%<\/td>\n<td>-37.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,741<\/td>\n<td>-24.3%<\/td>\n<td>-6.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>0.96<\/td>\n<td>-8.7%<\/td>\n<td>-3.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,122<\/td>\n<td>-20.7%<\/td>\n<td>-0.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.32<\/td>\n<td>-0.7%<\/td>\n<td>-32.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$499,950<\/td>\n<td>+4.2%<\/td>\n<td>+13.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>This is the first time in quite a while we&#8217;ve seen any green arrows for buyers in the table above. However, it&#8217;s hard to get even a little bit excited, given the all-time low inventory level. At this point there are so few homes for sale that it&#8217;s going to be difficult for sales to come in very strong.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103502]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 24 percent from October to November. Last year they fell 16 percent over the same period. Meanwhile year-over-year closed sales were in the red for the first time since September 2014.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103502]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2015-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell dramatically from October to November, and the year-over-year number continued to drop as well. Last month I said I expected to see a new all-time low for inventory in January. Here we are in November and we&#8217;ve already hit it. It looks almost certain that I&#8217;ll need to adjust the scale on that chart next month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103502]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2015-11.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the first time in over a year, the red demand line moved to the buyer&#8217;s side of the chart. However, that blue supply line is showing no signs of moving toward back toward balance.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103502]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2015-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year price growth nearly doubled from +7.3 percent in October to +13.6 percent in November.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103502]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2015-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The median home price is still bouncing around in the same $480,000 to $500,000 range it has been in since April.<\/p>\n<p>October 2015: $499,950<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(pre-2015 high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/king-county-home-prices-up-136-percent-in-12-months\/\" title=\"King County home prices climb amid worst shortage of inventory in a decade\">King County home prices climb amid worst shortage of inventory in a decade<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday. This is the first time in quite a while we&#8217;ve seen any green arrows for buyers in the summary table. However, it&#8217;s hard to get even a little bit excited, given the all-time low inventory level. At this point there are so few homes for sale that it&#8217;s going to be difficult for sales to come in very strong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"November market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday. This is the first time in quite a while we&#039;ve seen any green arrows for buyers in the summary table. However, it&#039;s hard to get even a little bit excited, given the all-time low inventory level. At this point there are so few homes for sale that it&#039;s going to be difficult for sales to come in very strong.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-12-07T18:40:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-01-07T17:06:45+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2015-11.png\",\"width\":907,\"height\":618},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/07\/nwmls-inventory-hits-new-time-low\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Inventory Hits New All-Time Low\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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