{"id":103608,"date":"2016-02-05T15:28:47","date_gmt":"2016-02-05T23:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103608"},"modified":"2016-02-05T15:28:47","modified_gmt":"2016-02-05T23:28:47","slug":"nwmls-pending-closed-home-sales-slow-january","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/05\/nwmls-pending-closed-home-sales-slow-january\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Pending and Closed Home Sales Slow in January"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Lack of inventory &#8220;a game changer&#8221; for home buyers<\/strong><br \/>\nDepleted inventory is contributing to &#8220;overwhelming&#8221; traffic at open houses, shifts in strategies for both buyers and sellers, and escalating prices, according to officials with the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<\/p>\n<p>Dick Beeson, a former chairman of the MLS board, said the lack of inventory in almost every county is, &#8220;without question, a 2016 game changer.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We have been in an extremely low-inventory market for going on three years now. How is a continuation of a years-long trend &#8220;a game changer&#8221;? Ridiculous hyperbole.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">January 2016<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>1,934<\/td>\n<td>+9.6%<\/td>\n<td>-27.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,314<\/td>\n<td>-36.2%<\/td>\n<td>-1.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.02<\/td>\n<td>+1.8%<\/td>\n<td>-0.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,812<\/td>\n<td>+22.8%<\/td>\n<td>-15.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.47<\/td>\n<td>+71.7%<\/td>\n<td>-26.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$490,970<\/td>\n<td>-3.4%<\/td>\n<td>+11.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>After setting new all-time low inventory levels in November and December, we actually saw a decent increase in January. Last month was still the lowest inventory level ever seen in a January, but at least unlike last year, we did see an uptick from December.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103608]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell off dramatically from the month earlier, and notched their second year-over-year decline in the last three months. Interestingly the December to January dropoff in closed sales was the largest month-over-month decrease we have seen in this statistics since January 2005. Meanwhile, the 15 percent year-over-year decline in pending sales is the largest dropoff we have seen since April 2011.<\/p>\n<p>There was definitely a softening in the sales stats in January. It will be interesting to see if it is a blip or the start of a trend.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2016-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103608]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2016-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Total inventory is at its lowest January level by a longshot. New listings are also still depressed, so it&#8217;s doubtful we&#8217;ll see this number climb much in the next few months unless the January slowdown in sales picks up steam over the next few months.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2016-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103608]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2016-01.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The red demand line went back into buyer&#8217;s territory again in January. The blue supply line is still deep in seller&#8217;s market territory, but the 8.2-point increase from December to January was the largest bump since May 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2016-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103608]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2016-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year price growth decreased from +15.5 percent in December to +11.2 percent in January.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2016-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103608]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2016-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The median home price dropped back into that $480,000 to $500,000 range it was in between April and November of last year.<\/p>\n<p>January 2016: $490,970<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(pre-2015 high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/shortage-of-homes-for-sale-drives-prices-higher\/\" title=\"Shortage of homes for sale pushes prices upward, buyers outward\">Shortage of homes for sale pushes prices upward, buyers outward<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back on Monday for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble. January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at their press&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Pending and Closed Home Sales Slow in January","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Pending and Closed Home Sales Slow in January \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/05\/nwmls-pending-closed-home-sales-slow-january\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Pending and Closed Home Sales Slow in January \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by becoming a member of Seattle Bubble. 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