{"id":103715,"date":"2016-04-05T09:48:09","date_gmt":"2016-04-05T16:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=103715"},"modified":"2016-04-08T09:51:55","modified_gmt":"2016-04-08T16:51:55","slug":"nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em> Thanks to our newest members, Larry, Jonathan, Jonathan, Kevin, and Dave! I really appreciate your support.<\/p>\n<p>March market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Puget Sound Area Home Sales Slow (But Not Prices)<\/strong><br \/>\nTraffic isn&#8217;t the only thing that is gridlocked around many Puget Sound communities. &#8220;We&#8217;re experiencing gridlock in the Puget Sound housing market,&#8221; suggested J. Lennox Scott in reaction to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8220;We are virtually sold out of inventory and there&#8217;s a pipeline of stalled buyers,&#8221; commented Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nThe year-to-date drop in pending sales versus first quarter 2015 is a reflection of tight inventory, according to MLS members. &#8220;It&#8217;s not for any other reason except there aren&#8217;t enough homes coming on the market to satisfy pent-up buyer demand,&#8221; stated Scott.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We can trust J. Lennox Scott&#8217;s assessment of the underlying forces at work in the local housing market, because he has always been 100% correct in his previous market analysis. <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/10\/friday-flashback-market-returning-normal\/\" title=\"Friday Flashback: &quot;The Market is Returning to Normal&quot;\">Oh<\/a>. <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/01\/14\/friday-flashback-youre-not-going-to-see-the-prices-come-off-that-much\/\" title=\"Friday Flashback: &quot;You're not going to see the prices come off that much.&quot;\">Wait<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">March 2016<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,157<\/td>\n<td>+12.2%<\/td>\n<td>-21.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,910<\/td>\n<td>+43.6%<\/td>\n<td>-8.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.43<\/td>\n<td>+10.6%<\/td>\n<td>+9.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,877<\/td>\n<td>+25.1%<\/td>\n<td>-11.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.13<\/td>\n<td>-21.9%<\/td>\n<td>-13.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$531,250<\/td>\n<td>+3.2%<\/td>\n<td>+20.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>First the good news for buyers: Inventory saw a slight uptick in March, and the year-over-year drop shrunk significantly from -29 percent in February to -21 percent in March. Sales also appear to be slowing down slightly as both pending and closed sales are down around ten percent from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>Now the bad news: The median home price shot up to a new all-time high, and the year-over-year median price was up a record-breaking 21 percent.<\/p>\n<p>It is worth noting that when the last bubble burst, sales were declining for nearly two years and inventory was climbing for about a year before home prices eventually peaked.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103715]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales were up from February, by a similar amount to most years. The year-over-year drop in closed sales was the largest decline we&#8217;ve seen since November 2010. If this keeps up, 2016 could be the turning point for this cycle. Or the last few months could just be a blip. We&#8217;ll know more in a few months.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHInventory2016-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103715]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHInventory2016-03.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Total inventory is at its lowest March level on record. The good news is that the 12 percent month-over-month increase in listings is the largest February to March increase on record.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2016-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103715]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2016-03.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Both the red demand line and the blue supply line inched toward buyer&#8217;s market territory in March. The demand side of the chart is further in buyer&#8217;s territory than it has been in over five years, but the supply side is still deep in seller&#8217;s market territory, which is the biggest driving force of the market right now.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHPrices2016-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103715]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHPrices2016-03.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year price growth inched up from +19.8 percent in February to a record-breaking 20.7 percent in March. That surpasses the previous peak gain of +20.0 percent that was set in October 2005.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2016-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[103715]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2016-03.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another ridiculously high level for the median home price. There&#8217;s never been a better time to sell your home.<\/p>\n<p>March 2016: $531,250<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s this month&#8217;s article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/economy\/squeeze-on-homes-for-sale-extends-to-several-counties\/\" title=\"Squeeze on homes for sale extends to several counties\">Squeeze on homes for sale extends to several counties<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back later for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;First the good news for buyers: Inventory saw a slight uptick in March, and the year-over-year drop shrunk significantly from -29 percent in February to -21 percent in March. Sales also appear to be slowing down slightly as both pending and closed sales are down around ten percent from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>Now the bad news: The median home price shot up to a new all-time high, and the year-over-year median price was up a record-breaking 21 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103722,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-103715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"March market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday...  ...First the good news for buyers: Inventory saw a slight uptick in March, and the year-over-year drop shrunk significantly from -29 percent in February to -21 percent in March. 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His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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Now the bad news: The median home price shot up to a new all-time high, and the year-over-year median price was up a record-breaking 21 percent.","twitter_image":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/","name":"NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png","datePublished":"2016-04-05T16:48:09+00:00","dateModified":"2016-04-08T16:51:55+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2016-03.png","width":907,"height":618},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/05\/nwmls-small-signs-market-softening-march\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"NWMLS: Some Small Signs of Market Softening in March"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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