{"id":104304,"date":"2017-02-07T08:30:42","date_gmt":"2017-02-07T16:30:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=104304"},"modified":"2017-02-07T08:30:42","modified_gmt":"2017-02-07T16:30:42","slug":"nwmls-scarce-listings-prices-dip-slightly-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2017\/02\/07\/nwmls-scarce-listings-prices-dip-slightly-december\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Scarce Listings But Prices Dip Slightly In December"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. They haven&#8217;t put up <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a> yet, so let&#8217;s get on with the stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">January 2017<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>1,569<\/td>\n<td>-4.3%<\/td>\n<td>-18.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,582<\/td>\n<td>-26.6%<\/td>\n<td>+20.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>0.80<\/td>\n<td>-16.4%<\/td>\n<td>-21.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,939<\/td>\n<td>+18.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>0.99<\/td>\n<td>+30.4%<\/td>\n<td>-32.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$525,000<\/td>\n<td>-4.5%<\/td>\n<td>+6.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Still no sign of hope for buyers here or on the near horizon. Listings are way down, sales are still strong, and while the median price did dial back a bit from December to January, it&#8217;s still within five percent of the all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Note that in the following charts the point for January 2017 is a light brown square on the left.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales dropped off 27 percent from December to January, but were still up twenty percent from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPending2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPending2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales rose eighteen percent in January, and were also up seven percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Listings fell four percent from December to January, unusual for this time of year. Typically listings actually <em>increase<\/em> slightly between December and January. The drop this year is the largest we&#8217;ve seen. Not exactly setting up 2017 for an inventory recovery.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Everything is still strongly in seller&#8217;s market territory.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price gains have declined in recent months from nearly fifteen percent in October to &#8220;just&#8221; seven percent in January, the lowest level since September 2015.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2017-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[104304]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2017-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Unless things suddenly turn around we will probably be hitting new all-time highs again in a few months.<\/p>\n<p>January 2017: $525,000<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/seattle-home-prices-grow-at-slowest-pace-in-three-years\/\" title=\"Seattle home prices grow at slowest pace in three years\">Seattle home prices grow at slowest pace in three years<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. They haven&#8217;t put up their press release yet, so let&#8217;s get on with the stats.<\/p>\n<p>Still no sign of hope for buyers here or on the near horizon. Listings are way down, sales are still strong, and while the median price did dial back a bit from December to January, it&#8217;s still within five percent of the all-time high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Scarce Listings But Prices Dip Slightly In December","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-104304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Scarce Listings But Prices Dip Slightly In December \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2017\/02\/07\/nwmls-scarce-listings-prices-dip-slightly-december\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Scarce Listings But Prices Dip Slightly In December \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. They haven&#039;t put up their press release yet, so let&#039;s get on with the stats.  Still no sign of hope for buyers here or on the near horizon. 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