{"id":105160,"date":"2018-06-05T12:41:20","date_gmt":"2018-06-05T19:41:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105160"},"modified":"2018-06-05T21:28:34","modified_gmt":"2018-06-06T04:28:34","slug":"nwmls-new-listings-hit-highest-point-since-2007-as-inventory-finally-grows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/06\/05\/nwmls-new-listings-hit-highest-point-since-2007-as-inventory-finally-grows\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: New listings hit highest point since 2007 as inventory finally grows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>May market stats have been published by the NWMLS, but their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">press release<\/a> isn&#8217;t out yet, so let&#8217;s just dive into the numbers.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">May 2018<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,912<\/td>\n<td>+37.5%<\/td>\n<td>+35.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,474<\/td>\n<td>+16.6%<\/td>\n<td>-4.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.59<\/td>\n<td>+16.2%<\/td>\n<td>+21.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>3,312<\/td>\n<td>+24.1%<\/td>\n<td>-4.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.18<\/td>\n<td>+17.9%<\/td>\n<td>+41.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$726,275<\/td>\n<td>+0.2%<\/td>\n<td>+14.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The big news in this month&#8217;s numbers is the big bump in both new listings and total on-market inventory. The last time we had more than 4,000 new single-family listings in a single month in King County was July 2007.<\/p>\n<p>If that month sounds familiar it may be because that was also coincidentially (?) the month that home prices peaked in the Seattle area during the previous housing bubble. Hmm&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>In my opinion it is still too early to call an inflection point yet, but this surge in listings definitely has my attention.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory rose thirty-seven percent from April to May, and was up thirty-six percent from last year. That&#8217;s a non-trivial increase.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>New listings were up seventeen percent from a year ago, and hit their highest level in over a decade.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHClosed\t_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHClosed_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales rose seventeen percent between April and May. Last year over the same period closed sales were up twenty-seven percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down four percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales were up twenty-four percent from April to May, and were also down four percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That is a huge spike up into the black for the inventory\/supply line. For buyers&#8217; sake, I hope the trend continues and isn&#8217;t just a one-month flash.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price movement continues to hover in the fifteen percent range.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-05.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105160]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-05.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another new all-time high, just barely.<\/p>\n<p>May 2018: $726,275<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Seattle Times hasn&#8217;t posted a story yet, when they do I&#8217;ll likely update this post.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Update:<\/em><\/strong> Here&#8217;s the story from the Times: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/seattle-area-home-prices-reach-record-highs-but-increasing-inventory-offers-a-ray-of-hope\/\" title=\"Seattle-area home prices reach record highs, but increasing inventory offers a ray of hope\">Seattle-area home prices reach record highs, but increasing inventory offers a ray of hope<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May market stats have been published by the NWMLS, but their press release isn&#8217;t out yet, so let&#8217;s just dive into the numbers.<\/p>\n<p>The big news in this month&#8217;s numbers is the big bump in both new listings and total on-market inventory. The last time we had more than 4,000 new single-family listings in a single month in King County was July 2007.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: New listings hit highest point since 2007 as inventory finally grows \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/06\/05\/nwmls-new-listings-hit-highest-point-since-2007-as-inventory-finally-grows\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: New listings hit highest point since 2007 as inventory finally grows \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"May market stats have been published by the NWMLS, but their press release isn&#039;t out yet, so let&#039;s just dive into the numbers.  The big news in this month&#039;s numbers is the big bump in both new listings and total on-market inventory. 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