{"id":105432,"date":"2018-10-04T13:15:13","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T20:15:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105432"},"modified":"2018-10-04T13:15:13","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T20:15:13","slug":"nwmls-inventory-continues-to-climb-as-sales-slow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/10\/04\/nwmls-inventory-continues-to-climb-as-sales-slow\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices have leveled off as sales continue to slip and inventory piles up. Year-over-year listing growth hit its highest level <em>ever<\/em> as the number of homes on the market reached its highest level since January 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Balance &#8220;finally returning&#8221; to housing market as buyers welcome more choices, moderating prices<\/strong><br \/>\nHousing inventory continued to improve during September while the pace of sales slowed in many counties served by Northwest Multiple Listing Service. &#8220;Balance is finally returning to the market, and with it, slowing home price growth,&#8221; stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nJ. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, encouraged would-be buyers to &#8220;put extra focus on October,&#8221; which he described as the last great month for new listings until March 2019. &#8220;Over the winter, new monthly resale listings will lower by approximately 50 percent compared to summer months.&#8221; He also noted interest rates, currently in the upper 4 percent, are projected to rise in the coming months.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nDespite slower sales, Northwest MLS spokespeople remain upbeat.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The housing market close to the job centers has gone from a historic extreme-frenzy market in the spring down a few levels of hotness to a strong level of pending sales activity for new listings,&#8221; said Scott.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>When is J. Lennox Scott <em>ever<\/em> not &#8220;upbeat&#8221; about the prospects for the housing market?<\/p>\n<p>Trick question! The answer is <strong>never!<\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">September 2018<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>5,213<\/td>\n<td>+11.7%<\/td>\n<td>+67.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,833<\/td>\n<td>-23.1%<\/td>\n<td>-27.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.73<\/td>\n<td>+20.5%<\/td>\n<td>+47.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,244<\/td>\n<td>-7.7%<\/td>\n<td>-18.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>2.84<\/td>\n<td>+45.3%<\/td>\n<td>+130.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$668,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.1%<\/td>\n<td>+6.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory rose twelve percent from August to September, and was up 67.9 percent from last year. Before this year, the highest year-over-year inventory gain was 61.3 percent way back in February 2008. The last time there were over 5,000 homes on the market at the end of September was in 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>New listings were up eight percent from a year ago, and edged up slightly from August to September, which is fairly typical for this time of year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHClosed\t_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHClosed_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 23 percent between August and September. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 10 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 27 percent&mdash;the largest drop since November 2010.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales were down eight percent from August to September, and were down 18 percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re now in totally uncharted territory for listings. We&#8217;ve never seen them growing this quickly year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price changes edged up from August to September, only because last year prices fell in September but this year they were basically flat, as you can see in the next chart.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105432]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-09.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>September 2018: $668,000<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices have leveled off as sales continue to slip and inventory piles up. Year-over-year listing growth hit its highest level <em>ever<\/em> as the number of homes on the market reached its highest level since January 2012\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/10\/04\/nwmls-inventory-continues-to-climb-as-sales-slow\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Inventory continues to climb as sales slow \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"September market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Home prices have leveled off as sales continue to slip and inventory piles up. 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