{"id":105572,"date":"2018-12-06T11:20:28","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T19:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105572"},"modified":"2018-12-06T13:03:42","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T21:03:42","slug":"nwmls-home-listing-inventory-skyrocketed-in-november-as-sales-and-prices-both-fell-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/06\/nwmls-home-listing-inventory-skyrocketed-in-november-as-sales-and-prices-both-fell-further\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November&#8217;s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The NWMLS press release hasn&#8217;t come out yet, so let&#8217;s get right to the data.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">November 2018<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,020<\/td>\n<td>-17.5%<\/td>\n<td>+113.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,811<\/td>\n<td>-11.7%<\/td>\n<td>-18.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.10<\/td>\n<td>-14.5%<\/td>\n<td>+26.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,926<\/td>\n<td>-16.1%<\/td>\n<td>-13.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>2.22<\/td>\n<td>-6.5%<\/td>\n<td>+162.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$643,913<\/td>\n<td>-4.0%<\/td>\n<td>+2.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year ago to a seven-year high in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual seasonal decline month-over-month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down 19 percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPending_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down 13 percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on this chart. We&#8217;ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November, to its lowest level since August 2014.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105572]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2018-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>November 2018: $643,913<br \/>\nNovember 2017: $630,750<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Seattle Times hasn&#8217;t published their story yet. I&#8217;ll update this post when they do.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Update:<\/strong> Here&#8217;s the story from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/seattle-area-home-prices-drop-again-with-6-month-decline-among-largest-ever\/\" title=\"Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever\">Seattle-area home prices drop again, with 6-month decline among largest ever<\/a><\/p>\n<p>And here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"Home buyers have \"window of opportunity\" with shift to more balanced market\">Home buyers have &#8220;window of opportunity&#8221; with shift to more balanced market<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November&#8217;s year-over-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/06\/nwmls-home-listing-inventory-skyrocketed-in-november-as-sales-and-prices-both-fell-further\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices both fell further \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. 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His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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