{"id":105638,"date":"2019-02-08T10:24:39","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T18:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105638"},"modified":"2019-02-08T10:24:39","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T18:24:39","slug":"nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The King County median price of single-family homes fell year-over-year for the first time since March of 2012. Inventory is way up from a year ago, but pending sales started increasing year-over-year, so buyers may be coming back.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Homebuyers resuming search amid improving inventory, attractive terms<\/strong><br \/>\nHome buyers around Washington state are making their way back to the market, hoping to take advantage of improving inventory, attractive interest rates, and more approachable sellers, according to officials with Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<br \/>\n\u2026<br \/>\nJ. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said buyers &#8220;came out of the woodwork&#8221; after the holidays, eager to take advantage of better housing conditions. &#8220;Areas close to the job centers are seeing improved affordability from spring 2018,&#8221; he said, attributing it to lower interest rates, strong job growth, and adjusted pricing.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;m not a professional used-house salesman like Lennox, but to me it seems like not a great idea to compare your clients to <a href=\"https:\/\/wordhistories.net\/2018\/04\/21\/crawl-woodwork-origin\/\" title=\"Word Histories: Origin of \u2018to crawl out of the woodwork\u2019\">insects crawling out of the walls in a dilapidated home<\/a>. But hey, you do you Lennox.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">January 2019<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,820<\/td>\n<td>-0.6%<\/td>\n<td>+126.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,224<\/td>\n<td>-28.2%<\/td>\n<td>-2.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.17<\/td>\n<td>+24.9%<\/td>\n<td>+16.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,904<\/td>\n<td>+38.8%<\/td>\n<td>+9.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>2.30<\/td>\n<td>+38.3%<\/td>\n<td>+133.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$610,000<\/td>\n<td>-4.5%<\/td>\n<td>-2.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell half a percent from December to January, but was up 127 percent from last year. The last time there were over 2,750 homes on the market at the end of January was in 2014.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>New listings were up 13 percent from a year ago, and more than doubled from December to January.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed\t_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 28 percent between December and January. Last year over the same period closed sales dropped 40 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down just three percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPending_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPending_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales shot up 39 percent from December to January, and were up nine percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Still a huge year-over-year increase in listings, but the growth did fall off a bit from December to January.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price changes dropped below zero for the first time in nearly seven years. I doubt we&#8217;ll see this continue to fall, but\u2026 maybe?<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2019-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105638]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2019-01.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>January 2019: $610,000<br \/>\nJanuary 2018: $628,388<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/seattle-area-home-prices-drop-to-lowest-point-in-two-years-down-116000-since-last-spring\/\" title=\"Seattle-area home prices drop to lowest point in two years \u2014 down $116,000 since last spring\">Seattle-area home prices drop to lowest point in two years \u2014 down $116,000 since last spring<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The King County median price of single-family homes fell year-over-year for the first time since March of 2012. Inventory is way up from a year ago, but pending sales started increasing year-over-year, so buyers may be coming back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"January market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. The King County median price of single-family homes fell year-over-year for the first time since March of 2012. Inventory is way up from a year ago, but pending sales started increasing year-over-year, so buyers may be coming back.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-08T18:24:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-01.png\",\"width\":907,\"height\":618},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/08\/nwmls-home-prices-are-falling-and-inventory-is-soaring-but-pending-sales-are-bouncing-back\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Home prices are falling and inventory is soaring, but pending sales are bouncing back\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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