{"id":105874,"date":"2019-09-10T08:00:31","date_gmt":"2019-09-10T15:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105874"},"modified":"2019-09-10T09:23:39","modified_gmt":"2019-09-10T16:23:39","slug":"nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let&#8217;s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.<\/p>\n<p>As we mentioned in <a href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/09\/august-stats-preview-where-did-the-listings-go\/\" title=\"August Stats Preview: Where did the listings go?\">yesterday&#8217;s preview post<\/a>, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Home Buyers Seeking Affordability Are Expanding Search Outside Greater Seattle Job Centers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Depleted inventory continues to frustrate would-be buyers in Western Washington. Many of these potential homeowners are expanding their search beyond the major job centers in King County, according to market watchers who commented on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<br \/>\n\u2026<br \/>\n&#8220;While August is always a slower time for listings and sales, what is really surprising this year is the  decrease in new listings taken, while pending sales increased,&#8221; observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.<br \/>\n\u2026<br \/>\nMultiple offers are still commonplace with many buyers walking away disappointed, according to Wilson. &#8220;Traffic is strong at open houses and our average market time is still very low for correctly priced homes,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The August numbers offered a few interesting nuggets,&#8221; stated OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. &#8220;The Seattle area housing market is still coming off the &#8216;sugar high&#8217; that we saw last summer, but homes sales and prices are stabilizing, which is reassuring to both buyers and sellers.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Quick note: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/august-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars\/\" title=\"10% of Redfin Offers Faced Bidding Wars in August, a New 8-Year Low\">According to data from Redfin<\/a>, multiple offers are far from &#8220;commonplace&#8221; now. In August fewer than 10 percent of offers in the Seattle area faced competition. (<em>Disclosure: Tim works for Redfin.<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p>However, new listings are indeed way down. Let&#8217;s get into the data to quantify the drop.<\/p>\n<p><!--\nThe NWMLS hasn't published <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a> yet, so let's get straight into the numbers.\n--><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">August 2019<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,194<\/td>\n<td>-4.7%<\/td>\n<td>-10.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,531<\/td>\n<td>-3.9%<\/td>\n<td>+6.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.11<\/td>\n<td>-4.8%<\/td>\n<td>-22.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,623<\/td>\n<td>-10.1%<\/td>\n<td>+7.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.66<\/td>\n<td>-0.7%<\/td>\n<td>-15.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$670,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.5%<\/td>\n<td>+0.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell five percent from July to August. During the same period a year ago, inventory <em>rose<\/em> 12 percent. The 10 percent year-over-year drop in inventory is the biggest decline we&#8217;ve seen since January 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>New listings were down 10 percent from July to August, and were down 18 percent from a year ago. Only 2011 and 2012 saw fewer new listings in August than we had in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed\t_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell four percent between July and August, and were up six percent from last year. Closed sales have been in a fairly tight range between about 2,400 and 2,800 in August every year since 2013, and this year fell right in the middle of that range at 2,531.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPending_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPending_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales fell 10 percent month-over-month but were up eight percent year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The good news for buyers with respect to housing supply was short-lived. Supply is back in the red.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Home prices dipped a bit last month, but not by as much as they did this time last year, so we ended up back in the black year-over-year, just barely.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2019-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105874]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2019-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>August 2019: $670,000<br \/>\nAugust 2018: $669,000<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the article about these numbers from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/the-markets-chilled-out-but-seattle-home-prices-still-too-hot-for-many-first-time-buyers\/\" title=\"The market\u2019s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers\">The market\u2019s chilled out, but Seattle home prices still too hot for many first-time buyers<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let&#8217;s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.<\/p>\n<p>As we mentioned in yesterday&#8217;s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at their press release\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let&#039;s take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.  As we mentioned in yesterday&#039;s preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.  Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#039;s a quick look at their press release\u2026\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-10T15:00:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-10T16:23:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2019-08.png\",\"width\":1413,\"height\":963},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/10\/nwmls-new-listings-dry-up-as-home-prices-plateau\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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As we mentioned in yesterday's preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.  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