{"id":105973,"date":"2020-09-08T15:00:26","date_gmt":"2020-09-08T22:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=105973"},"modified":"2020-09-10T15:59:07","modified_gmt":"2020-09-10T22:59:07","slug":"nwmls-pending-sales-hit-an-all-time-high-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/08\/nwmls-pending-sales-hit-an-all-time-high-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Get access to the full spreadsheets used to make the charts in this and other posts, as well as a variety of additional insider benefits by <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/membership\/\" title=\"Seattle Bubble Membership\">becoming a member of Seattle Bubble<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. Inventory is way down from a year ago, and pending sales climbed to <strong>an all-time record high<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Recession? What recession?<\/p>\n<p>Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here&#8217;s a quick look at <a href=\"http:\/\/members.nwmls.com\/library\/content\/PressReleases\/2020\/NWMLS%20NR_September%202020.pdf\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">their press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Would-be homebuyers have more buying power, but also more competition for meager inventory<\/strong><br \/>\n\u201cIn order for buyers to be successful in purchasing a home in today\u2019s climate, they have to do some pretty illogical things,\u201d remarked Wilson, the Kitsap regional manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. As examples, he listed waiving inspections, paying more than the house is worth, or agreeing to pay the difference in cash between the lower appraised value and the sales price. \u201cThese are counterintuitive to what we used to see with a negotiation process,\u201d he lamented.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe lowest number of homes for sale in more than 20 years combined with the lowest mortgage rates on record are resulting in the perfect storm of frustration for buyers \u2013 but they are still out in force,\u201d stated Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. \u201cThe few homes that are on the market are being snapped up quickly, and this excess of demand is causing record-high prices for single family homes in the Puget Sound area.\u201d He also noted rising demand for lower density housing in outer suburbs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I still find it quite amusing that <a href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2017\/10\/19\/matthew-gardner-not-housing-bubble\/\">Matthew Gardner<\/a> is now the Chief Economist at Windermere.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:450px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">August 2020<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,590<\/td>\n<td>-1.7%<\/td>\n<td>-38.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,783<\/td>\n<td>+0.7%<\/td>\n<td>+10.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.36<\/td>\n<td>-1.2%<\/td>\n<td>+23.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>3,537<\/td>\n<td>+3.1%<\/td>\n<td>+34.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>0.93<\/td>\n<td>-2.3%<\/td>\n<td>-43.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$742,950<\/td>\n<td>+2.1%<\/td>\n<td>+10.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory fell 1.7 percent from July to August, and was down 38 percent from last year. We&#8217;re not currently at an all-time low for the number of homes on the market, but this winter is shaping up to hit a new low unless something changes dramatically.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of new listings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH New Listings\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH New Listings - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHNewListings_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH New Listings\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The good news is that new listings were up 35 percent from a year ago, and did not decline nearly as much between July and August as we see in a typical year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed\t_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales were basically flat between July and August. Last year over the same period closed sales fell 4 percent. Year-over-year closed sales were up 10 percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPending_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPending_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales rose 3 percent from July to August, and were up 35 percent year-over-year. No month on record going all the way back through 2000 has seen more pending sales than we saw in August. For Seattle-area homebuyers, the recession is apparently non-existent.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph. &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not a pretty picture for homebuyers, with demand on the rise and supply falling.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Year-over-year home price changes jumped up to over 10 percent for the first time in over two years.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2020-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[105973]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly_2020-08.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>August 2019: $670,000<br \/>\nAugust 2020: $742,950<br \/>\nJuly 2007: $481,000 <em>(previous cycle high)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the article from the Seattle Times: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/western-washington-home-prices-hit-new-record-highs\/\" title=\"Western Washington home prices hit new record highs\">Western Washington home prices hit new record highs<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. Inventory is way down from a year ago, and pending sales climbed to <strong>an all-time record high<\/strong>\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[1158],"class_list":["post-105973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2020\/09\/08\/nwmls-pending-sales-hit-an-all-time-high-in-august\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. 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