{"id":10731,"date":"2010-04-27T07:25:41","date_gmt":"2010-04-27T14:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=10731"},"modified":"2010-05-25T06:58:06","modified_gmt":"2010-05-25T13:58:06","slug":"case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-pass-25-off-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/04\/27\/case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-pass-25-off-peak\/","title":{"rendered":"Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Pass 25% Off Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/a>. According to February data,<\/p>\n

Down<\/em> 1.1% January to February.
\nDown<\/em> 5.6% YOY.<\/strong>
\nDown<\/em> 25.3% from the July 2007 peak<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Last year prices fell 1.5% from January to February and year-over-year prices were down 15.4%.<\/p>\n

Hilariously, Bloomberg continues<\/em> to run a headline on the Case-Shiller data that implies that home prices rose<\/em> in all twenty cities tracked by the index. From Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rise Less Than Forecast<\/a>:<\/p>\n

April 27 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose less than forecast in February from a year earlier, a sign a housing recovery will take time to develop.<\/p>\n

The S&P\/Case-Shiller home-price index of property values in 20 cities increased 0.6 percent from February 2009, the first gain since December 2006, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 1.3 percent advance.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

See, what they did there was to suddenly switch which data point they are talking about. In all their stories for the last six months<\/a> or so, they have been focusing in on the month-to-month<\/em> change in the seasonally-adjusted value of the 20-city index. But this month, the 20-city index fell<\/em> month-to-month, even if you use the semi-bogus seasonally-adjusted data (more on that below). Hey, no problem! Just find a different data point that suits the narrative of “home prices rise.” So all of a sudden, they switched to reporting the year-over-year<\/em> change in the 20-city index. Classy.<\/p>\n

Oh, and by the way, even when we look at the year-over-year comparison, it is still inaccurate to say that “home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose.” Prices are up year-over-year in nine cities, and down<\/em> year-over-year in the other eleven.<\/p>\n

I bring this up to point out the reason that I do my best to remain consistent in which data points we discuss on Seattle Bubble each month. When “journalists” pick and choose whichever data is convenient for the story they want to tell, it is difficult for the readers to really understand what is going on.<\/p>\n

So, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. San Diego and LA have added to their YOY gains. Portland slipped slightly, and the rate of increase in Seattle’s YOY change has definitely stalled. Portland came in at -4.8%, Los Angeles at +5.3%, and San Diego at +7.6%, still all better than Seattle.<\/p>\n

\"Case-Shiller<\/a><\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong> This graph is not intended to be predictive<\/strong>. It is for entertainment purposes only.<\/p>\n

Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software<\/a> (check and un-check the boxes on the right):<\/p>\n

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