{"id":10835,"date":"2010-05-05T13:30:40","date_gmt":"2010-05-05T20:30:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=10835"},"modified":"2010-05-05T13:30:40","modified_gmt":"2010-05-05T20:30:40","slug":"nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Tax Credit Goes Out With a Fizzle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>April market stats have been published by the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s a link to the NWMLS press release (not live quite yet): <a title=\"Brokers cite tax credit and rising consumer confidence with stabilizing housing activity around Washington state\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\">Brokers cite tax credit and rising consumer confidence with stabilizing housing activity around Washington state<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;While the tax credit has gone away, the buyers haven&#8217;t,&#8221; observed OB Jacobi, a board member of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on the MLS summary report for March, Jacobi described the tax incentives, which expired April 30, with being the &#8220;lubricant the market needed,&#8221; but credits rising consumer confidence with &#8220;driving the engine now.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Okay, first off, the tax credit has been gone for less than a week.  These statistics that were released today are all from when the tax credit was fully in force.  What we have here is a strange bit of misdirection.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Commenting on the latest report, two industry leaders referred to market stability. &#8220;The home buyer tax credit did what it was designed to do; it helped with stabilizing the housing market which in turn helped stimulate economic recovery,&#8221; said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s exciting to see the stability of the real estate market continue to improve,&#8221; said NWMLS director Bobbie Chipman, co-managing broker for Coldwell Banker Bain-Tacoma\/Puyallup. &#8220;The tax credit seems to have accomplished its purpose,&#8221; she added, noting, &#8220;It motivated home buyers to enter the market place, creating a synergy that should propel us through the summer months.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Good luck with that one.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">April 2010<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>9,206<\/td>\n<td>+4.4%<\/td>\n<td>-4.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,642<\/td>\n<td>+2.9%<\/td>\n<td>+63.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>2.15<\/td>\n<td>-3.2%<\/td>\n<td>-25.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,955<\/td>\n<td>+7.5%<\/td>\n<td>+39.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>3.12<\/td>\n<td>-2.9%<\/td>\n<td>-31.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$375,000<\/td>\n<td>+2.1%<\/td>\n<td>-1.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Closed sales were basically flat from March, which seems to be the usual pattern most years.  As expected, pending sales shot up, gaining 7.5% in a month that usually declines an average of about 5%.  I would not be at all surprised if this is the highest level of pending sales we see in 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Also interesting is the fact that while the <em>raw number<\/em> of pending sales is still far higher than the eventual number of closed sales, over the past eight months the <em>YOY change<\/em> in pending sales has generally tracked fairly closely to the following month&#8217;s YOY change in closed sales:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending &amp; Closed Sales YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFH-Pending-Closed-YOY_2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending &amp; Closed Sales YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFH-Pending-Closed-YOY_2010-04-600x435.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending &amp; Closed Sales YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If this pattern holds through next month, we&#8217;ll be looking at about 1,825 closed sales in May.<\/p>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, and here&#8217;s <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">a copy in Excel 2003 format<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHClosed2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHClosed2010-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Still not too much different than 2008.  Next month we&#8217;ll probably bounce up off that line, but I&#8217;m betting we still won&#8217;t reach the level of sales seen in 2001 (the lowest year other that 2008 and 2009).<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHInventory2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHInventory2010-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The pattern of inventory growth this year seems to be more similar to 2007 and 2008 than last year.  With the tax credit buyers all gone, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if we bump ahead of 2009 as early as next month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2010-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Still way up there in the sales, thanks to the total dumps the market was in through about May of last year.  I expect that the red line will drop back down and possibly even fall below zero by July.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHPrices2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHPrices2010-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>April saw the opposite move from what we saw in March.  The median bumped <em>up<\/em> slightly month-to-month, but fell year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2010-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[10835]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2010-04-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t expect that we&#8217;ll be getting back up to that blue line on top for quite some time.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the news blurbs from the Times &#038; P-I:<\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2011786295_homesales06.html\" title=\"Tax credits fuel King County home sales in April\">Tax credits fuel King County home sales in April<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I:  <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.seattlepi.com\/realestatenews\/archives\/204758.asp\" title=\"Seattle home prices up in April, report says\">Seattle home prices up in April, report says<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>April market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s a link to the NWMLS press release (not live quite yet): Brokers cite tax credit and rising consumer confidence with stabilizing housing activity around Washington state. &#8220;While the tax credit has gone away, the buyers haven&#8217;t,&#8221; observed OB Jacobi, a board member of the Northwest&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-10835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Tax Credit Goes Out With a Fizzle \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Tax Credit Goes Out With a Fizzle \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"April market stats have been published by the NWMLS. 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Here&#8217;s a link to the NWMLS press release (not live quite yet): Brokers cite tax credit and rising consumer confidence with stabilizing housing activity around Washington state. &#8220;While the tax credit has gone away, the buyers haven&#8217;t,&#8221; observed OB Jacobi, a board member of the Northwest...","twitter_image":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/images-global\/down-red.gif","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/","name":"NWMLS: Tax Credit Goes Out With a Fizzle \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFH-Pending-Closed-YOY_2010-04-600x435.png","datePublished":"2010-05-05T20:30:40+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFH-Pending-Closed-YOY_2010-04.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/KingCoSFH-Pending-Closed-YOY_2010-04.png","width":"912","height":"662"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/05\/nwmls-tax-credit-goes-out-with-a-fizzle\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"NWMLS: Tax Credit Goes Out With a Fizzle"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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