{"id":11051,"date":"2010-05-25T06:30:23","date_gmt":"2010-05-25T13:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=11051"},"modified":"2010-05-25T06:57:36","modified_gmt":"2010-05-25T13:57:36","slug":"case-shiller-flat-is-the-new-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/25\/case-shiller-flat-is-the-new-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Case-Shiller: Flat is the New Up"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the <a title=\"S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller\u00ae Home Price Indices\" href=\"http:\/\/www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com\/\">Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/a>.  According to March data,<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Up 0.1% February to March.<br \/>\n<strong><em>Down<\/em> 3.6% YOY.<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>Down<\/em> 25.3% from the July 2007 peak<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Last year prices fell 2.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 16.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Quick check: Is Bloomberg still <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/11\/24\/bloomberg-runs-flat-out-false-case-shiller-headline\/\" title=\"Bloomberg Runs Flat-Out False Case-Shiller Headline\">running nonsense false headlines<\/a>?  <a href=\"http:\/\/preview.bloomberg.com\/news\/2010-05-25\/home-prices-in-u-s-cities-rose-2-3-in-march-from-year-earlier.html\" title=\"Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rose 2.3% in March\">Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rose 2.3% in March<\/a>.  Yup.  In reality home prices were up month-to-month in only six cities, and year-to-year in ten cities.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, here&#8217;s our offset graph&mdash;the same graph we post every month&mdash;with L.A. &amp; San Diego time-shifted from Seattle &amp; Portland by 17 months.  All four cities climbed a little more in March, with San Diego grabbing the biggest gain.  Portland came in at -2.8%, Los Angeles at +6.0%, and San Diego at +10.8%, still all better than Seattle.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2010-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[11051]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2010-03-600x437.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> This graph is <strong>not intended to be predictive<\/strong>.  It is for entertainment purposes only.<\/p>\n<p>Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including interactive charts of all 20 cities.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/\" title=\"Tableau Software\">Tableau Software<\/a>  (check and un-check the boxes on the right):<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 600px; height: 700px; margin: 0 auto;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"604\" height=\"669\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"name\" value=\"Case-Shiller-YOY\/YOYChange\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><noscript>YOY Change<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/25\/case-shiller-flat-is-the-new-up\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"YOY Change\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/static\/images\/Case-Shiller-YOY-YOYChange_rss.png\" width=\"584\" height=\"620\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div style=\"width:604px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px; margin-top: -6px; color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"padding-left: 488px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/Case-Shiller-YOY\/YOYChange\" target=\"_blank\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ten of thirty Case-Shiller-tracked cities are now in positive YOY territory: Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Dallas.<\/p>\n<p>In March, <em>sixteen<\/em> of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year <em>increases<\/em>) than Seattle (one less than February).  San Francisco at +16.2, San Diego at +10.8%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/business\/404163_economy23ww.html\" title=\"Seattle Economists: At Least We're Not Cleveland\">Cleveland at +6.7%<\/a>, Minneapolis at +6.5%, Los Angeles at +6.0%, Washington, DC at +5.6%, Denver at +4.1%, Boston at +3.8%, Dallas at +3.0%, Phoenix at +2.4%, Atlanta at -1.3%, Miami at -1.7%, Chicago at -2.3%, New York at -2.4%, Portland at -2.8%, and Tampa at -3.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Only three cities experienced home prices falling faster year-over-year than Seattle in March: Charlotte, Detroit, and Las Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through March.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 600px; height: 700px; margin: 0 auto;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"604\" height=\"669\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"name\" value=\"Case-Shiller\/Case-ShillerHPI\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><noscript>Case-Shiller HPI <br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/25\/case-shiller-flat-is-the-new-up\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/static\/images\/Case-Shiller-Case-ShillerHPI_rss.png\" width=\"584\" height=\"620\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div style=\"width:604px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px; margin-top: -6px; color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"padding-left: 488px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/Case-Shiller\/Case-ShillerHPI\" target=\"_blank\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph <a title=\"Comment by CrystalBall\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/01\/29\/case-shiller-november-seattle-playing-catch-up\/#comment-38661\">created by reader CrystalBall<\/a>.  This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak.  The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-ShillerHPI_Decline-From-Peak_2010-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[11051]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-ShillerHPI_Decline-From-Peak_2010-03-600x435.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the thirty-one months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.3%, basically the same as last month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a complementary chart to that last one.  This one shows the total change in the index since last March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009 - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-Shiller-2009-Bounce_2010-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[11051]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009 - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/Case-Shiller-2009-Bounce_2010-03-600x435.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>San Diego is still bouncing, and San Francisco had a nice little bump there in March, but everyone else appears to be fizzling.<\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle&#8217;s price tiers.<\/p>\n<p>(<em>Home Price Indices, <a title=\"S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller\u00ae Home Price Indices\" href=\"http:\/\/www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com\/\">Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s<\/a>, 05.25.2010<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data, Up 0.1% February to March. Down 3.6% YOY. Down 25.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 2.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 16.4%. Quick check: Is Bloomberg still running nonsense&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[138,136,86,222,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-11051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-behind-the-cycle","tag-california","tag-case-shiller","tag-graphs","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Case-Shiller: Flat is the New Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/25\/case-shiller-flat-is-the-new-up\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Case-Shiller: Flat is the New Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data, Up 0.1% February to March. Down 3.6% YOY. Down 25.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 2.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 16.4%. 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His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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Down 25.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 2.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 16.4%. 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