{"id":14293,"date":"2011-02-04T11:36:14","date_gmt":"2011-02-04T19:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=14293"},"modified":"2011-02-04T13:53:21","modified_gmt":"2011-02-04T21:53:21","slug":"nwmls-prices-inventory-fall-sales-slowly-climb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/04\/nwmls-prices-inventory-fall-sales-slowly-climb\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Prices &#038; Inventory Fall, Sales Slowly Climb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>January market stats have been published by the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"Motivated buyers returning to the housing market\">Motivated buyers returning to the housing market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Dramatic increases in open house activity and shrinking inventory are fueling optimism among members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on the just-released MLS report on January&#8217;s housing activity, one director stated, &#8220;There is a strong belief in the industry that the worst is behind us and we can look forward with confidence.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nBased on anecdotal reports of open house traffic, brokers are hopeful of upticks in sales.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The buyer activity at open houses in the close in Seattle neighborhoods has increased dramatically in the past month, said Northwest MLS director Mike Skahen. &#8220;If there were more good new listings coming on the market there would be more sales,&#8221; he suggested.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Oh please.  Again with the meaningless &#8220;open house traffic&#8221; nonsense.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/06\/05\/nwmls-sales-and-prices-take-record-breaking-dive\/\" title=\"NWMLS: Sales and Prices Take Record-Breaking Dive\">June 2008<\/a>:<\/strong> &#8220;Open-house traffic is picking up.&#8221; &#8211; Dick Beeson<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/07\/march-reporting-roundup-spring-fever-edition\/\" title=\"March Reporting Roundup: Spring Fever Edition\">April 2009<\/a>:<\/strong> &#8220;Open house traffic &#8230; <em>[has]<\/em> increased twofold in recent weeks.&#8221; &#8211; Dick Beeson<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/\" title=\"September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on!\">October 2009<\/a>:<\/strong> &#8220;Activity at open houses is reported to be brisk in many areas.&#8221; &#8211; NWMLS<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/04\/nwmls-prices-flat-sales-slowly-climbing-up-from-lows\/\" title=\"NWMLS: Prices Flat, Sales Slowly Climbing Up From Lows\">March 2010<\/a>:<\/strong> &#8220;Jacobi reported &#8216;significant traffic&#8217; at open houses&#8221; &#8211; NWMLS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You get the idea.<\/p>\n<p>All righty then, let&#8217;s have a look at the actual numbers, sketchy as they may be.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">January 2011<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">New Listings<\/td>\n<td>2,460<\/td>\n<td>+68.6%<\/td>\n<td>-20.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>7,507<\/td>\n<td>+1.9%<\/td>\n<td>-0.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,017<\/td>\n<td>-30.2%<\/td>\n<td>+6.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.74<\/td>\n<td>-12.6%<\/td>\n<td>-25.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,649<\/td>\n<td>+19.6%<\/td>\n<td>-6.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>4.55<\/td>\n<td>-14.7%<\/td>\n<td>+6.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$356,000<\/td>\n<td>-3.8%<\/td>\n<td>-5.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-01-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A slight alleged increase in closed sales compared to a year ago.  Other sources do not confirm a number quite this high.  Even still, if we take the NWMLS number as reality, January still saw lower closed sales than any year other than 2009 or 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the last year or so of pending and closed sales according to NWMLS.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending &#038; Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPendClosed2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Pending &#038; Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPendClosed2011-01-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending &#038; Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales still below last year&#8217;s levels, and not increasing quite as fast as they did last year.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-01-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>2011&#8217;s red dot sits almost directly on top of last year&#8217;s.  I predict next month it will drop below.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-01-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another crossing, though the momentum is not quite as strong as it was the last time we crossed this direction in May 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-01-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another tick backward.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-01.png\" rel=\"lightbox[14293]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-01-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>January&#8217;s price drop puts us roughly on par with March\/April 2005.  April 2005: $355,000.  January 2011: $356,000.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll round up local press reactions to January&#8217;s numbers on Monday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s their press release: Motivated buyers returning to the housing market. Dramatic increases in open house activity and shrinking inventory are fueling optimism among members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on the just-released MLS report on January&#8217;s housing activity, one director stated, &#8220;There is&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-14293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Prices &amp; Inventory Fall, Sales Slowly Climb \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/04\/nwmls-prices-inventory-fall-sales-slowly-climb\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Prices &amp; Inventory Fall, Sales Slowly Climb \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s their press release: Motivated buyers returning to the housing market. Dramatic increases in open house activity and shrinking inventory are fueling optimism among members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. 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