{"id":14565,"date":"2011-02-25T07:00:53","date_gmt":"2011-02-25T15:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=14565"},"modified":"2011-04-15T16:20:56","modified_gmt":"2011-04-15T23:20:56","slug":"friday-flashback-case-shiller-home-price-losses-mapped","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/25\/friday-flashback-case-shiller-home-price-losses-mapped\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Flashback: Case-Shiller Home Price Losses Mapped"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I thought it would be interesting to post one more viz on the latest Case-Shiller numbers.  This time I&#8217;ve put the data from all twenty cities on a map.  The size of each circle represents how far back prices have rewound (larger = further back), and the circles are color-coded by how much prices have lost from their peak value.  Float over a circle for the details about that city.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:600px; height:580px;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"604\" height=\"549\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"name\" value=\"Case-Shiller-Map\/Dashboard\" \/><param name=\"tabs\" value=\"no\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><noscript>Dashboard <br \/><a href=\"#\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Dashboard \" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/static\/images\/Ca\/Case-Shiller-Map\/Dashboard\/1_rss.png\" height=\"100%\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div style=\"width:604px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px; color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"float:right; padding-right:8px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/Case-Shiller-Map\/Dashboard\" target=\"_blank\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s what the National Association of REALTORS had to say <a href=\"http:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20060221212932\/www.realtor.org\/Research.nsf\/Pages\/Anti-BubbleQ&#038;A?OpenDocument\" title=\"Housing Bubble Prospects Q&#038;A\">about national housing bubbles<\/a> just a few years ago:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Has there ever been a national housing price bubble?<\/strong> No.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How long have home prices declined in the past?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Although there are exceptions to any general finding, most metro areas that experienced price declines were relatively short lived (several years). &#8230; Very few people buy at the top of a market and then sell in a short timeframe. After several years, home prices level and return to normal appreciation patterns.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Note that every city tracked by Case-Shiller sits at a home price level lower than when that NAR document was published in 2005.  Oops.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it could be worse.  You could be the guy that wrote a cocky &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=114\" title=\"21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market\">21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market<\/a>&#8221; blog post in July 2006, just one month after prices peaked there.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/housingpanic.blogspot.com\/2006\/07\/housingpanic-stupid-question-of-day_21.html\" title=\"HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day\">HousingPanic<\/a>, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog \u2014 which is saying something \u2014 asks:<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin:0 0 15px 20px; font-style:italic;\">Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?<\/div>\n<p>Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;We keep our own home sales price statistics, so we have no doubt that values are down from their high in December. How much? Right now, about 4%. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year\u2019s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth \u2014 historically 6% a year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the especially amusing part.  In the <a href=\"http:\/\/housingpanic.blogspot.com\/2006\/07\/housingpanic-stupid-question-of-day_21.html\" title=\"HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day\">July 2006 HousingPanic post<\/a> linked to by this esteemed Phoenix real estate professional, it was suggested that Phoenix home prices may be overvalued by <em>as much as<\/em> 50%.  Note in the map above that Phoenix home prices are down 55% from their June 2006 peak (so far).<\/p>\n<p>Oops.<\/p>\n<div style=\"font-size:85%; border-top:1px solid #CCCCCC;\">The purpose of our <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/tag\/friday-flashback\/\" title=\"Friday Flashback on Seattle Bubble\">Friday Flashback series<\/a> is to remind people why it&#8217;s never a good idea to base your home purchase decisions on the word of someone with a vested financial interest in selling as many homes as possible for as much as possible, no matter what.  If you&#8217;ve got a good example of local home salespeople or other industry shills on record making fools of themselves in the years before the bubble burst, <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/contact\/\">shoot me an email<\/a>.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I thought it would be interesting to post one more viz on the latest Case-Shiller numbers. This time I&#8217;ve put the data from all twenty cities on a map. The size of each circle represents how far back prices have rewound (larger = further back), and the circles are color-coded by how much prices have&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[659,639,86,638,213,531],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-14565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-659","tag-639","tag-case-shiller","tag-friday-flashback","tag-maps","tag-tableau"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Friday Flashback: Case-Shiller Home Price Losses Mapped \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/25\/friday-flashback-case-shiller-home-price-losses-mapped\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Friday Flashback: Case-Shiller Home Price Losses Mapped \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"I thought it would be interesting to post one more viz on the latest Case-Shiller numbers. 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