{"id":15144,"date":"2011-04-07T06:45:09","date_gmt":"2011-04-07T13:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=15144"},"modified":"2011-04-07T11:15:58","modified_gmt":"2011-04-07T18:15:58","slug":"nwmls-sales-start-to-tumble-inventory-still-sucks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/07\/nwmls-sales-start-to-tumble-inventory-still-sucks\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Sales Start to Tumble, Inventory Still Sucks"},"content":{"rendered":"

March market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Here’s what they have to say about their numbers: Housing market doing "surprisingly well" without a stimulus<\/a>.<\/p>\n

“The market is doing surprisingly well without a stimulus,” observed Northwest MLS director OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company. “Considering that this time last year there was a rush of buyers trying to beat the tax credit deadline, to have the number of sales off just slightly points towards a strengthening market,” he added. <\/p>\n

A comparison to two years ago reveals a double-digit jump in pending sales. Area-wide, the volume is up nearly 33 percent, rising from 5,701 pending sales in March 2009 to 7,570 for last month. For the four-county Puget Sound region, pending sales spiked nearly 42 percent compared to two years ago (from 4,266 to 6,049). “The glass is starting to look more half full than half empty,” Jacobi commented.<\/p>\n

Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, agreed. “Most real estate professionals will be happy to move past the year-over-year comparisons that have been made the first few months of 2011, as they reflect the boost given home sales by last year’s Homebuyer Tax Credit,” he noted, adding, “Home sales are now standing on their own—without the benefit of incentives—and the market is actually behaving quite typically.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course<\/em> everything looks great when you cherry-pick the data set you’re comparing with to be the absolute worst year on record. What a pointless comparison, though. How about we compare this spring to the 2000-2007 average?<\/p>\n

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart, so we can do just that:<\/p>\n

\"King<\/a><\/p>\n

Wow, we’re doing way<\/em> better than that orange 2009 line… about the same as the lavender and green 2010 and 2008 lines… and pretty crappy compared to every other line. In fact, March closed sales came in 33% below the 2000-2007 average. I wouldn’t exactly call that “behaving quite typically.”<\/p>\n

On the other hand, median prices ticked up in March, so that’s good news, right? Oh wait, that actually is pretty typical spring behavior during this housing bust.<\/p>\n

\"King<\/a><\/p>\n

All right, let’s get on with the rest of the statistics, shall we?<\/p>\n

\n
CAUTION<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n