{"id":15381,"date":"2011-04-21T10:00:38","date_gmt":"2011-04-21T17:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=15381"},"modified":"2011-04-21T11:15:25","modified_gmt":"2011-04-21T18:15:25","slug":"has-the-tide-turned-against-home-ownership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/21\/has-the-tide-turned-against-home-ownership\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the Tide Turned Against Home Ownership?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Now seems like as good a time as any to have another look at the &#8220;Cycle of Market Emotions&#8221;:<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center\"><strong>The Cycle of Market Emotions<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2007\/08\/market_emotion_cycle.png\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"Cycle of Market Emotions\" alt=\"Cycle of Market Emotions\" height=\"225\" width=\"390\" \/><\/div>\n<p>By my reckoning, in late 2007 we were <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/08\/21\/somewhere-between-anxiety-and-denial\/\" title=\"Somewhere Between Anxiety and Denial\">somewhere between anxiety and denial<\/a>, and by mid-2010 we were <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/20\/treading-water-between-fear-and-desperation\/\" title=\"Treading Water Between Fear and Desperation\">treading water between fear and desperation<\/a>.  Today I suspect we&#8217;ve made it to capitulation, based on two major factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Many sellers have given up, not even bothering to list their homes.<\/li>\n<li>Many would-be buyers have given up on home ownership entirely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For evidence that sellers have given up, look no further than any of our <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/20\/redfin-sales-prices-inventory-all-slipping-into-spring\/\" title=\"Redfin: Sales, Prices, &#038; Inventory All Slipping into Spring\">recent<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/07\/nwmls-sales-start-to-tumble-inventory-still-sucks\/\" title=\"NWMLS: Sales Start to Tumble, Inventory Still Sucks\">posts<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/12\/march-stats-preview-fool-delayed-edition\/\" title=\"March Stats Preview: Fool-Delayed Edition\">inventory<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/01\/11\/2011-wheres-the-inventory\/\" title=\"2011: Where\u2019s the Inventory?\">trends<\/a>, showing flat\/falling inventory at a time of year that usually sees the largest increases.<\/p>\n<p>For evidence that buyers are giving up on home ownership, consider mainstream articles such as this story that ran in Bloomberg Tuesday: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-04-19\/americans-shun-most-affordable-homes-in-generation-as-owning-loses-appeal.html\" title=\"Americans Shun Most Affordable Homes in Generation as Owning Loses Appeal\">Americans Shun Most Affordable Homes in Generation as Owning Loses Appeal<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Victoria Pauli signed a one-year lease last week to stay in her rental home in Fair Oaks, California. She had considered buying in the area, where property prices have slumped 57 percent since a 2005 peak.<\/p>\n<p>In the end, she decided it wasn&#8217;t worth it.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I know people who have watched their home values get cut in half, and I know people who are losing their homes,&#8221; said Pauli, 31, who works as a property manager for a real estate company. &#8220;It&#8217;s part of the American dream to want to own your own home, and I used to feel that way, but now I tell myself: Be careful what you wish for.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The most affordable real estate in a generation is failing to lure buyers as Americans like Pauli sour on the idea of home ownership.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sure sounds like capitulation to me.  Of course, we may be in the capitulation and despondency stage for quite some time&mdash;maybe years, even&mdash;so I think it&#8217;s a bit early yet to be looking for relief and optimism around the corner.<\/p>\n<p>What about you?  Where do you think we are in the cycle?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now seems like as good a time as any to have another look at the &#8220;Cycle of Market Emotions&#8221;: The Cycle of Market Emotions By my reckoning, in late 2007 we were somewhere between anxiety and denial, and by mid-2010 we were treading water between fear and desperation. Today I suspect we&#8217;ve made it to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[613,198],"tags":[750,671,29,307],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-15381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-national-news","category-news","tag-emotions","tag-market-cycle","tag-psychology","tag-real-estate-psychology"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Has the Tide Turned Against Home Ownership? \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/21\/has-the-tide-turned-against-home-ownership\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Has the Tide Turned Against Home Ownership? \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Now seems like as good a time as any to have another look at the &#8220;Cycle of Market Emotions&#8221;: The Cycle of Market Emotions By my reckoning, in late 2007 we were somewhere between anxiety and denial, and by mid-2010 we were treading water between fear and desperation. 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