{"id":15438,"date":"2011-04-28T13:02:21","date_gmt":"2011-04-28T20:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=15438"},"modified":"2011-04-28T13:02:21","modified_gmt":"2011-04-28T20:02:21","slug":"seattle-home-prices-average-4-annual-gains-since-1990","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/28\/seattle-home-prices-average-4-annual-gains-since-1990\/","title":{"rendered":"Seattle Home Prices Average 4% Annual Gains Since 1990"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I updated my chart that compares the gains in Seattle&#8217;s <a title=\"S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller\u00ae Home Price Indices\" href=\"http:\/\/www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com\/\">Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/a> with consistent annual increases at various levels, and noticed that for the first time since 1997, home prices dropped below the level of 4% annual gains since 1990.<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/Case-Shiller-Annual-Growth-wCPI_2011-02.png\" title=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Seattle\" rel=\"lightbox[15438]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/Case-Shiller-Annual-Growth-wCPI_2011-02-600x396.png\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Seattle - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Seattle\" width=\"600\" height=\"396\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>I&#8217;ve also added a plot of the Consumer Price Index for the Seattle metro area <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/data.htm\" title=\"Bureau of Labor Statistics\">from the BLS<\/a> on there for comparison.  Local inflation has pretty much tracked between 3% and 4% annually since 1990, and home prices are still pretty far ahead of where they would be if they were just tracking inflation.<\/p>\n<p>I would argue that Seattle is a very different place than it was in 1990, so I&#8217;m not sure that we&#8217;ll ever quite get all the way back down to the inflation line that we departed from in 1997.  The housing bubble was an obvious, dramatic deviation from a level of home price growth that could be described in any way as sensible, but it isn&#8217;t clear to me that it&#8217;s reasonable to expect home prices in a growing metro area to only track inflation in perpetuity.<\/p>\n<p>However, this chart certainly provides ammunition for those that argue that the <em>real<\/em> beginning of the housing bubble was in 1997, and we still have a long ways yet to fall.  As of February, Seattle&#8217;s Case-Shiller HPI is 21% higher than Seattle&#8217;s Consumer Price Index (re-indexed to match the CS-HPI in January 1990).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I updated my chart that compares the gains in Seattle&#8217;s Case-Shiller Home Price Index with consistent annual increases at various levels, and noticed that for the first time since 1997, home prices dropped below the level of 4% annual gains since 1990. I&#8217;ve also added a plot of the Consumer Price Index for the Seattle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[704,770,86,769,61,177],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-15438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-big-picture","tag-bls","tag-case-shiller","tag-cpi","tag-fundamentals","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Seattle Home Prices Average 4% Annual Gains Since 1990 \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/28\/seattle-home-prices-average-4-annual-gains-since-1990\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Seattle Home Prices Average 4% Annual Gains Since 1990 \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"I updated my chart that compares the gains in Seattle&#8217;s Case-Shiller Home Price Index with consistent annual increases at various levels, and noticed that for the first time since 1997, home prices dropped below the level of 4% annual gains since 1990. 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