{"id":17559,"date":"2011-10-27T10:59:17","date_gmt":"2011-10-27T17:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=17559"},"modified":"2011-10-27T14:21:22","modified_gmt":"2011-10-27T21:21:22","slug":"obama-cant-wait-to-screw-with-the-market-even-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/27\/obama-cant-wait-to-screw-with-the-market-even-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama &#8220;Can&#8217;t Wait&#8221; to Screw with the Market Even More"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, as long as we&#8217;re talking politics this week, let&#8217;s just dive in head first.  I&#8217;d like to discuss the latest federal &#8220;relief&#8221; plan that made news this week.  Here&#8217;s an AP story from Monday: <a href=\"http:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Entertainment\/wireStory\/obama-announce-steps-housing-woes-14801806?singlePage=true\" title=\"Obama Offers Mortgage Relief on Western Trip\">Obama Offers Mortgage Relief on Western Trip<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>LAS VEGAS \u2014 President Barack Obama offered mortgage relief on Monday to hundreds of thousands of Americans, his latest attempt to ease the economic and political fallout of a housing crisis that has bedeviled him as he seeks a second term.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nHis jobs bill struggling in Congress, Obama tried a new catchphrase \u2014 &#8220;We can&#8217;t wait&#8221; \u2014 to highlight his administrative initiatives and to shift blame to congressional Republicans for lack of action to boost employment and stimulate an economic recovery.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nWhile Obama has proposed prodding the economy with payroll tax cuts and increased spending on public works and aid to states, he has yet to offer a wholesale overhaul of the nation&#8217;s housing programs. Economists point to the burst housing bubble as the main culprit behind the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Wait, what?  No, the main culprit behind the crisis was all the insane financing, derivatives, bogus ratings, leveraging, and all of the other nonsense that went on during the housing bubble run-up.  The bust and financial crisis were just the inevitable consequences of the near-universal death of responsibility at both the personal and the corporate level.<\/p>\n<p>Moving on&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Under Obama&#8217;s proposal, homeowners who are still current on their mortgages would be able to refinance no matter how much their home value has dropped below what they still owe.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Because there are <em>so many<\/em> people whose homes are worth half what they owe who just want to refinance to a lower interest rate.  Or something.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Now, over the past two years, we&#8217;ve already taken some steps to help folks refinance their mortgages,&#8221; Obama said, listing a series of measures. &#8220;But we can do more.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Obama acknowledged that his latest proposal will not do all that&#8217;s not needed to get the housing market back on its feet. &#8220;Given the magnitude of the housing bubble, and the huge inventory of unsold homes in places like Nevada, it will take time to solve these challenges,&#8221; he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Please, don&#8217;t &#8220;do more.&#8221;  Hasn&#8217;t the government already done enough?  Killing financial oversight, over-promoting &#8220;ownership,&#8221; over-expanding Fannie &#038; Freddie, bailing out irresponsible banks&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Presidential spokesman Jay Carney criticized Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney for proposing last week while in Las Vegas that the government not interfere with foreclosures. &#8220;Don&#8217;t try to stop the foreclosure process,&#8221; Romney told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. &#8220;Let it run its course and hit the bottom.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That is not a solution,&#8221; Carney told reporters on Air Force One. He said Romney would tell homeowners, &#8220;&#8216;You&#8217;re on your own, tough luck.'&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;m certainly no Romney fan (he&#8217;s probably my <em>least<\/em> favorite potential 2012 challenger), but he&#8217;s right on this one, and Mr. Carney has got it backward.  Foreclosures are not the problem.  The problem is over-inflated values that got completely detached from all sound economic fundamentals.  Foreclosures <em>are<\/em> the solution, not some sort of government-forced refinance plan that helps people to continue throwing good money after bad for decades to come.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:420px; margin:0 auto;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"420\" height=\"315\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/P36x8rTb3jI\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><a name=\"UpdateObamaHAMP\"><\/a><strong>[Update]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It seems I was a little unclear on why exactly I think this is a bad plan.  The main reason I&#8217;m not a fan of this &#8220;help people refinance their underwater mortgage&#8221; program is what I said just above: It only &#8220;helps people to continue throwing good money after bad for decades to come.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Let me try to explain via an example.  Let&#8217;s say you bought a 3-bed, 1.75-bath Seattle-area home in 2007 for $419,000.  You put down 20% and got a 6.6% rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.  That puts your total monthly PITI payments at about $2,600.<\/p>\n<p>Today your house is worth about $280,000.  You still owe about $314,000, so despite putting 20% down, you&#8217;re 10% underwater (more if you count the costs of selling).  If you refinance into a new 30-year mortgage at today&#8217;s rate of 4.2%, you can drop your payments from $2,600 to about $1,900.<\/p>\n<p>Pretty good, right?  $700 a month savings!<\/p>\n<p>But what if instead you were able to do a short sale (or default, if the bank won&#8217;t play ball), rent for a few years, then buy a home at today&#8217;s lower prices?<\/p>\n<p>Going rent for a home like yours in your neighborhood is around $1,400 a month&mdash;$500 a month cheaper than what you&#8217;d be paying if you refinanced your underwater mortgage.  Five years of renting at that price (even allowing for some increases in rent) will cost about $25,000 less than five years of paying the $1,900 a month refinanced mortgage, and $67,000 less than paying your original mortgage.<\/p>\n<p>If you take the $67,000 you save by renting for five years and put it into a $280,000 home comparable to what you used to own, your monthly payment (if rates go back up to 6%) will be just $1,600&mdash;$300 less than if you take the government&#8217;s deal and refinance today.  The numbers work out even worse for you to take the deal if you originally put no money down or have a home that is even further underwater.<\/p>\n<p>Here it is in table form:<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:500px; margin:0 auto 15px;\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th>Scenario<\/th>\n<th>Payment Today<\/th>\n<th>Payment 0-5 yrs<\/th>\n<th>Payment 6+ yrs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>do nothing<\/td>\n<td>$2,600<\/td>\n<td>$2,600<\/td>\n<td>$2,600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>HARP refinance<\/td>\n<td>$2,600<\/td>\n<td>$1,900<\/td>\n<td>$1,900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>rent, then buy<\/td>\n<td>$2,600<\/td>\n<td>$1,400<\/td>\n<td>$1,600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>That&#8217;s<\/em> what I&#8217;m talking about when I say that continuing to pay an underwater mortgage is &#8220;throwing good money after bad.&#8221;  It&#8217;s short-sighted and in my opinion a larger drain on the economy than encouraging people to get face the consequences of their poor purchase decisions, get out of these houses and move on with their lives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, as long as we&#8217;re talking politics this week, let&#8217;s just dive in head first. I&#8217;d like to discuss the latest federal &#8220;relief&#8221; plan that made news this week. Here&#8217;s an AP story from Monday: Obama Offers Mortgage Relief on Western Trip LAS VEGAS \u2014 President Barack Obama offered mortgage relief on Monday to hundreds&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[199,198],"tags":[282,104,816,479,399],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-17559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion","category-news","tag-bailout","tag-government_meddling","tag-harp","tag-obama","tag-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Obama &quot;Can&#039;t Wait&quot; to Screw with the Market Even More \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/27\/obama-cant-wait-to-screw-with-the-market-even-more\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Obama &quot;Can&#039;t Wait&quot; to Screw with the Market Even More \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Okay, as long as we&#8217;re talking politics this week, let&#8217;s just dive in head first. 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